Building the Case for Localized Approaches to HIV: Structural Conditions and Health System Capacity to Address the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Six US Cities

Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the South: An Epidemic Within an Epidemic

The authors examine the HIV epidemic in the Southern United States, emphasizing its severe impact on minority and young populations. The authors highlight challenges including limited health care access, systemic racism influencing social determinants of health, and lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer+ stigma. The South faces a critical human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) workforce shortage, especially in rural areas, and struggles with coexisting syndemics like other sexually transmitted infections and substance-use disorders. The authors describe comprehensive strategies such as Medicaid expansion, workforce enhancement, stigma reduction, and policy reforms to improve HIV prevention and treatment, emphasizing the need for a multifaceted approach to improve health outcomes for those living with HIV in the South.

Estimating the potential value of MSM-focused evidence-based implementation interventions in three Ending the HIV Epidemic jurisdictions in the United States: a model-based analysis

INTRODUCTION

Improving the delivery of existing evidence-based interventions to prevent and diagnose HIV is key to Ending the HIV Epidemic in the United States. Structural barriers in the access and delivery of related health services require municipal or state-level policy changes; however, suboptimal implementation can be addressed directly through interventions designed to improve the reach, effectiveness, adoption or maintenance of available interventions. Our objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness and potential epidemiological impact of six real-world implementation interventions designed to address these barriers and increase the scale of delivery of interventions for HIV testing and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in three US metropolitan areas.

METHODS

We used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated to replicate HIV microepidemics in Atlanta, Los Angeles (LA) and Miami. We identified six implementation interventions designed to improve HIV testing uptake ("Academic detailing for HIV testing," "CyBER/testing," "All About Me") and PrEP uptake/persistence ("Project SLIP," "PrEPmate," "PrEP patient navigation"). Our comparator scenario reflected a scale-up of interventions with no additional efforts to mitigate implementation and structural barriers. We accounted for potential heterogeneity in population-level effectiveness across jurisdictions. We sustained implementation interventions over a 10-year period and evaluated HIV acquisitions averted, costs, quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios over a 20-year time horizon (2023-2042).

RESULTS

Across jurisdictions, implementation interventions to improve the scale of HIV testing were most cost-effective in Atlanta and LA (CyBER/testing cost-saving and All About Me cost-effective), while interventions for PrEP were most cost-effective in Miami (two of three were cost-saving). We estimated that the most impactful HIV testing intervention, CyBER/testing, was projected to avert 111 (95% credible interval: 110-111), 230 (228-233) and 101 (101-103) acquisitions over 20 years in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively. The most impactful implementation intervention to improve PrEP engagement, PrEPmate, averted an estimated 936 (929-943), 860 (853-867) and 2152 (2127-2178) acquisitions over 20 years, in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight the potential impact of interventions to enhance the implementation of existing evidence-based interventions for the prevention and diagnosis of HIV.

HIV transmission dynamics and population-wide drug resistance in rural South Africa

Despite expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa, HIV-1 transmission persists. Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI) and long-acting injectables offer potential for superior viral suppression, but pre-existing drug resistance could threaten their effectiveness. In a community-based study in rural KwaZulu-Natal, prior to widespread INSTI usage, we enroled 18,025 individuals to characterise HIV-1 drug resistance and transmission networks to inform public health strategies. HIV testing and reflex viral load quantification were performed, with deep sequencing (20% variant threshold) used to detect resistance mutations. Phylogenetic and geospatial analyses characterised transmission clusters. One-third of participants were HIV-positive, with 21.7% having detectable viral loads; 62.1% of those with detectable viral loads were ART-naïve. Resistance to older reverse transcriptase (RT)-targeting drugs was found, but INSTI resistance remained low (<1%). Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance, particularly to rilpivirine (RPV) even in ART-naïve individuals, was concerning. Twenty percent of sequenced individuals belonged to transmission clusters, with geographic analysis highlighting higher clustering in peripheral and rural areas. Our findings suggest promise for INSTI-based strategies in this setting but underscore the need for RPV resistance screening before implementing long-acting cabotegravir (CAB) + RPV. The significant clustering emphasises the importance of geographically targeted interventions to effectively curb HIV-1 transmission.

HIV transmission dynamics and population-wide drug resistance in rural South Africa

Despite the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa, HIV-1 incidence remains high. The anticipated use of potent integrase strand transfer inhibitors and long-acting injectables aims to enhance viral suppression at the population level and diminish transmission. Nevertheless, pre-existing drug resistance could impede the efficacy of long-acting injectable ART combinations, such as rilpivirine (an NNRTI) and cabotegravir (an INSTI). Consequently, a thorough understanding of transmission networks and geospatial distributions is vital for tailored interventions, including pre-exposure prophylaxis with long-acting injectables. However, empirical data on background resistance and transmission networks remain limited. In a community-based study in rural KwaZulu-Natal (2018-2019), prior to the widespread use of integrase inhibitor-based first-line ART, we performed HIV testing with reflex HIV-1 RNA viral load quantification on 18,025 participants. From this cohort, 6,096 (33.9%) tested positive for HIV via ELISA, with 1,323 (21.7%) exhibiting detectable viral loads (> 40 copies/mL). Of those with detectable viral loads, 62.1% were ART-naïve, and the majority of the treated were on an efavirenz + cytosine analogue + tenofovir regimen. Deep sequencing analysis, with a variant abundance threshold of 20%, revealed NRTI resistance mutations such as M184V in 2% of ART-naïve and 32% of treated individuals. Tenofovir resistance mutations K65R and K70E were found in 12% and 5% of ART-experienced individuals, respectively, and in less than 1% of ART-naïve individuals. Integrase inhibitor resistance mutations were notably infrequent (< 1%). Prevalence of pre-treatment drug resistance to NNRTIs was 10%, predominantly consisting of the K103N mutation. Among those with viraemic ART, NNRTI resistance was 50%, with rilpivirine-associated mutations observed in 9% of treated and 6% of untreated individuals. Cluster analysis revealed that 20% (205/1,050) of those sequenced were part of a cluster. We identified 171 groups with at least two linked participants; three quarters of clusters had only two individuals, and a quarter had 3-6 individuals. Integrating phylogenetic with geospatial analyses, we revealed a complex transmission network with significant clustering in specific regions, notably peripheral and rural areas. These findings derived from population scale genomic analyses are encouraging in terms of the limited resistance to DTG, but indicate that transitioning to long-acting cabotegravir + rilpivirine for transmission reduction should be accompanied by prior screening for rilpivirine resistance. Whole HIV-1 genome sequencing allowed identification of significant proportions of clusters with multiple individuals, and geospatial analyses suggesting decentralised networks can inform targeting public health interventions to effectively curb HIV-1 transmission.

Projected Life Expectancy Gains From Improvements in HIV Care in Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men

Importance

Substantial racial inequities exist across the HIV care continuum between non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US.

Objectives

To project years of life gained (YLG) with improving the HIV care continuum among Black MSM and White MSM in the US and to determine the outcomes of achieving health equity goals.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model was used and populated with 2021 race-specific data to simulate HIV care among Black MSM and White MSM in the US who have acquired HIV. Analyses were completed from July 2021 to October 2023.

Intervention

The study simulated status quo care using race-specific estimates: age at infection, time to diagnosis, receipt of care, and virologic suppression. The study next projected the outcomes of attaining equity-centered vs non-equity-centered goals by simulating 2 equal improvements in care goals: (10-point increased receipt of care and 5-point increased virologic suppression), 3 equity-centered goals (annual HIV testing, 95% receiving HIV care, and 95% virologic suppression) and lastly, an equitable care continuum that achieves annual HIV testing, 95% receiving care, and 95% virologic suppression in Black MSM and White MSM. One-way and multiway sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mean age at death and YLG.

Results

In the simulated cohort, the mean (SD) age at HIV infection was 27.0 (10.8) years for Black MSM and 35.5 (13.6) years for White MSM. In status quo, mean age at death would be 68.8 years for Black MSM and 75.6 years for White MSM. The equal improvements in care goals would result in 0.5 YLG for Black MSM and 0.5 to 0.9 YLG for White MSM. Achieving any 1 equity-centered goal would result in 0.5 to 1.7 YLG for Black MSM and 0.4 to 1.3 YLG for White MSM. With an equitable care continuum compared with the nationally reported status quo, Black MSM and White MSM would gain 3.5 and 2.1 life-years, respectively. If the status quo HIV testing was every 6 years with 75% retained in care and 75% virologically suppressed, Black MSM would gain 4.2 life-years with an equitable care continuum.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this simulation modeling study of HIV care goals, equal improvements in HIV care for Black and White MSM maintained or worsened inequities. These results suggest that equity-centered goals for the HIV care continuum are critical to mitigate long-standing inequities in HIV outcomes.

Translating and disseminating a localised economic model to support implementation of the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative to public health policymakers

Background

Despite significant progress in HIV treatment and prevention, the US remains far from its goal of 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' by 2030. Economic models using local data can synthesise the evidence to help policymakers allocate HIV resources efficiently, but persistent research-to-practice gaps remain. Little is known about how to facilitate the use of economic modelling data among local public health policymakers in real-world settings.

Aims and objectives

To explore the dissemination of results from a locally-calibrated economic model for HIV prevention and treatment and identify the factors influencing potential uptake of the model for public health decision making at the local level.

Methods

Four virtual focus groups with 26 local health department policymakers in Baltimore, Miami, Seattle, and New York City were held between July 2020 and May 2021. Qualitative content analysis of transcripts identified key themes around using the localised economic model in policy decisions.

Results

Participants were interested in using local data in their decisions to allocate resources for HIV prevention/treatment. Six themes emerged: 1) importance of understanding local policy context; 2) health equity considerations; 3) using evidence to support current priorities; 4) difficulty of changing strategies, even incrementally; 5) bang for the incremental buck (efficiency) vs. previous impact; and 6) community values.

Conclusion and relevance

To optimise acceptance and use of results from economic models, researchers should engage with local community members and public health decision makers early to understand budgetary and community priorities. Participants prioritised evidence that supports their existing strategies, considers budgets and funding streams, and improves health equity; however, real-world budget constraints and conflicting interests serve as barriers to implementing model recommendations and reaching national goals.

Evaluating the population-level effects of overdose prevention sites and supervised consumption sites in British Columbia, Canada: Controlled interrupted time series

BACKGROUND

On 14 April 2016, British Columbia's Provincial Medical Health Officer declared the overdose crisis a public health emergency, sanctioning the implementation of new overdose prevention sites (OPS) and supervised consumption sites (SCS) across the province.

METHODS

We used the BC Centre for Disease Control's Provincial Overdose Cohort of all overdose events between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2017 to evaluate the population-level effects of OPSs and SCSs on acute health service use and mortality. We matched local health areas (LHA) that implemented any site with propensity score matched controls and conducted controlled interrupted time series analysis.

RESULTS

During the study period, twenty-five OPSs and SCSs opened across fourteen of British Columbia's 89 LHAs. Results from analysis of LHAs with matched controls (i.e. excluding Vancouver DTES) were mixed. Significant declines in reported overdose events, paramedic attendance, and emergency department visits were observed. However, there were no changes to trends in monthly hospitalization or mortality rates. Extensive sensitivity analyses found these results persisted.

CONCLUSIONS

We found OPSs and SCSs reduce opioid-related paramedic attendance and emergency department visit rates but no evidence that they reduce local hospitalization or mortality rates.

Structural Inequities, HIV Community-Based Organizations, and the End of the HIV Epidemic

Community-based organizations (CBOs) are integral to achieving the goal of Ending the HIV epidemic (EHE). Their familiarity with and proximity to communities position them to effectively implement strategies necessary to address determinants of health through their formal and informal medical and social services. However, structural inequities have contributed to the demise of many organizations that were instrumental in early responses to the HIV epidemic. We define structural inequities for HIV CBOs as systems in which policies, institutional practices, organizational (mis)representations, and other norms work to produce and maintain inequities that affect CBOs' ability to survive and thrive. In this discussion, we describe the organizational threats to grassroots HIV CBOs and the risks to livelihood and longevity, including examples. The invaluable role of HIV CBOs in EHE and their role in responding to existing and novel infectious diseases like COVID-19 should not be overlooked. Recommendations to promote structural equity are offered. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(3):417-425. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306688).

Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission by HIV Risk Group and Along the HIV Care Continuum: A Contrast of 6 US Cities

BACKGROUND

Understanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum within different HIV transmission risk groups in 6 US cities.

METHODS

We used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial behavior-specific or ethnic behavior-specific and risk behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state, and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, nonacute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year.

RESULTS

Individuals with undiagnosed nonacute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% (26.7%-44.9%) in New York City to 64.9% (47.0%-71.6%) in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in 4 of 6 cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person-years, ranging from 76.4 (58.9-135.9) in Miami to 160.2 (85.7-302.8) in Baltimore.

CONCLUSION

These findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.

Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities

BACKGROUND

The degree to which the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will affect the US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic is unclear.

METHODS

We used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to project HIV infections from 2020 to 2025 in 32 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We sampled a range of effects of the pandemic on sexual transmission (0-50% reduction), viral suppression among people with HIV (0-40% reduction), HIV testing (0-50% reduction), and pre-exposure prophylaxis use (0-30% reduction), and indexed reductions over time to Google Community Mobility Reports.

RESULTS

Simulations projected reported diagnoses would drop in 2020 and rebound in 2021 or 2022, regardless of underlying incidence. If sexual transmission normalized by July 2021 and HIV care normalized by January 2022, we projected 1161 (1%) more infections from 2020 to 2025 across all 32 cities than if COVID-19 had not occurred. Among "optimistic" simulations in which sexual transmission was sharply reduced and viral suppression was maintained we projected 8% lower incidence (95% credible interval: 14% lower to no change). Among "pessimistic" simulations where sexual transmission was largely unchanged but viral suppression fell, we projected 11% higher incidence (1-21% higher). MSA-specific projections are available at www.jheem.org?covid.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of COVID-19 on HIV transmission remain uncertain and differ between cities. Reported diagnoses of HIV in 2020-2021 are likely to correlate poorly with underlying incidence. Minimizing disruptions to HIV care is critical to mitigating negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission.

A typology of power in implementation: Building on the exploration, preparation, implementation, sustainment (EPIS) framework to advance mental health and HIV health equity

Background

Persistent inequities in HIV health are due, in part, to barriers to successful HIV-related mental health intervention implementation with marginalized groups. Implementation Science (IS) has begun to examine how the field can promote health equity. Lacking is a clear method to analyze how power is generated and distributed through practical implementation processes and how this power can dismantle and/or reproduce health inequity through intervention implementation. The aims of this paper are to (1) propose a typology of power generated through implementation processes, (2) apply this power typology to expand on the Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, Sustainment (EPIS) framework to advance HIV and mental health equity and (3) articulate questions to guide the explicit examination and distribution of power throughout implementation.

Methods

This paper draws on the work of an Intermediary Purveyor organization implementing trauma-informed care and harm reduction organizational change with HIV service organizations. The expanded framework was developed through analyzing implementation coaching field notes, grant reporting, and evaluation documents, training feedback, partner evaluation interviews, and existing implementation literature.

Results

The authors identify three types of power working through implementation; (1) discursive power is enacted through defining health-related problems to be targeted by intervention implementation, as well as through health narratives that emerge through implementation; (2) epistemic power influences whose knowledge is valued in decision-making and is recreated through knowledge generation; and (3) material power is created through resource distribution and patterns of access to health resources and acquisition of health benefits provided by the intervention. Decisions across all phases and related to all factors of EPIS influence how these forms of power striate through intervention implementation and ultimately affect health equity outcomes.

Conclusions

The authors conclude with a set of concrete questions for researchers and practitioners to interrogate power throughout the implementation process.

Plain language summary

Over the past few years, Implementation Science researchers have committed increased attention to the ways in which the field can more effectively address health inequity. Lacking is a clear method to analyze how implementation processes themselves generate power that has the potential to contribute to health inequity. In this paper, the authors describe and define three types of power that are created and distributed through intervention implementation; discursive power, epistemic power, and material power. The authors then explain how these forms of power shape factors and phases of implementation, using the well-known EPIS (exploration, preparation, implementation, sustainment) framework. The authors draw from their experience working with and Intermediary Purveyor supporting HIV service organizations implementing trauma-informed care and harm reduction organizational change projects. This paper concludes with a set of critical questions that can be used by researchers and practitioners as a concrete tool to analyze the role of power in intervention implementation processes.

Effective strategies to promote HIV self-testing for men who have sex with men: Evidence from a mathematical model

BACKGROUND

HIV testing is the gateway to HIV treatment and prevention. HIV self-testing (HIVST) has potential to increase testing; however, the potential population-level impact of HIVST on the HIV epidemic and the best strategies for promoting HIVST are unknown. Our aim is to inform public health approaches for promoting HIVST as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce HIV incidence.

METHODS

Stochastic network-based HIV transmission models were used to estimate how different HIVST strategies would affect HIV incidence in Seattle and Atlanta over 10 years. We included four types of HIV testers and implemented nine replacement and eleven supplementation strategies for HIVST.

RESULTS

Replacement of clinic-based tests with HIVST increased HIV incidence in Seattle and Atlanta. The benefits of supplementary strategies depended on the tester type using HIVST. Targeting non-testers averted the highest number of cases per test. In Seattle 2.2 (95%SI=-77, 100.4) and 4.7 (95%SI=-35.7, 60.1) infections were averted per 1000 HIVST when non-testers used HIVST once or twice per year respectively. In Atlanta the comparable rates were 8.0 (95%SI=-60.3 to 77.7) and 6.7 (95%SI=-37.7, 41.0). Paradoxically, increasing testing among risk-based testers using HIVST increased incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

The population-level impact of HIVST depends on who is reached with HIVST, how kits are used, and by characteristics of the underlying epidemic and HIV care infrastructure. Targeted HIVST can be an effective component of a comprehensive HIV testing strategy. More work is needed to understand how to identify and target non-testers for self-testing implementation.

What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce incident HIV infections by 90% over a span of 10 years. The intensity of interventions needed to achieve this for local epidemics is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of HIV interventions at the city level.

DESIGN

A compartmental model of city-level HIV transmission stratified by age, race, sex, and HIV risk factor was developed and calibrated.

SETTING

32 priority metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

PATIENTS

Simulated populations in each MSA.

INTERVENTION

Combinations of HIV testing and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among those at risk for HIV, plus viral suppression in persons with diagnosed HIV infection.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was the projected reduction in incident cases from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

Absent intervention, HIV incidence was projected to decrease by 19% across all 32 MSAs. Modest increases in testing (1.25-fold per year), PrEP coverage (5 percentage points), and viral suppression (10 percentage points) across the population could achieve reductions of 34% to 67% by 2030. Twenty-five percent PrEP coverage, testing twice a year on average, and 90% viral suppression among young Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM) achieved similar reductions (13% to 68%). Including all MSM and persons who inject drugs could reduce incidence by 48% to 90%. Thirteen of 32 MSAs could achieve greater than 90% reductions in HIV incidence with large-scale interventions that include heterosexuals. A web application with location-specific results is publicly available (www.jheem.org).

LIMITATION

The COVID-19 pandemic was not represented.

CONCLUSION

Large reductions in HIV incidence are achievable with substantial investment, but the EHE goals will be difficult to achieve in most locations. An interactive model that can help policymakers maximize the effect in their local environments is presented.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Attributing health benefits to preventing HIV infections versus improving health outcomes among people living with HIV: an analysis in six US cities

OBJECTIVE

Combination strategies generate health benefits through improved health outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) and prevention of new infections. We aimed to determine health benefits attributable to improved health among PLHIV versus HIV prevention for a set of combination strategies in six US cities.

DESIGN

A dynamic HIV transmission model.

METHODS

Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City (NYC) and Seattle, we assessed the health benefits of city-specific optimal combinations of evidence-based interventions implemented at publicly documented levels and at ideal (90% coverage) scale-up (2020-2030 implementation, 20-year study period). We calculated the proportion of health benefit gains (measured as quality-adjusted life-years) resulting from averted and delayed HIV infections; improved health outcomes among PLHIV; and improved health outcomes due to medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD).

RESULTS

The HIV-specific proportion of total benefits ranged from 68.3% (95% credible interval: 55.3-80.0) in Seattle to 98.5% (97.5-99.3) in Miami, with the rest attributable to MOUD. The majority of HIV-specific health benefits in five of six cities were attributable HIV prevention, and ranged from 33.1% (26.1-41.1) in NYC to 83.1% (79.6-86.6) in Atlanta. Scaling up to ideal service levels resulted in three to seven-fold increases in additional health benefits, mostly from MOUD, with HIV-specific health gains primarily driven by HIV prevention.

CONCLUSION

Optimal combination strategies generated a larger proportion of health benefits attributable to HIV prevention in five of six cities, underlining the substantial benefits of antiretroviral therapy engagement for the prevention of HIV transmission through viral suppression. Understanding to whom benefits accrue may be important in assessing the equity and impact of HIV investments.

HIV mortality across the 30 largest U.S. cities: assessing overall trends and racial inequities

BACKGROUND

Despite decreases in overall HIV mortality in the U.S., large racial inequities persist. Most previous analyses of HIV mortality and mortality inequities have utilized national- or state-level data.

METHODS

Using vital statistics mortality data and American Community Survey population estimates, we calculated HIV mortality rates and Black:White HIV mortality rate ratios (RR) for the 30 most populous U.S. cities at two time points, 2010-2014 (T1) and 2015-2019 (T2).

RESULTS

Almost all cities (28) had HIV mortality rates higher than the national rate at both time points. At T2, HIV mortality rates ranged from 0.8 per 100,000 (San Jose, CA) to 15.2 per 100,000 (Baltimore, MD). Across cities, Black people were approximately 2-8 times more likely to die from HIV compared to White people at both time points. Over the decade, these racial disparities decreased at the national level (T1: RR = 11.0, T2: RR = 9.8), and in one city (Charlotte, NC).

DISCUSSION

We identified large geographic and racial inequities in HIV mortality in U.S. urban areas. These city-specific data may motivate change in cities and can help guide city leaders and other health advocates as they implement, test, and support policies and programming to decrease HIV mortality.

Ending the HIV Epidemic Among Persons Who Inject Drugs: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Six US Cities

BACKGROUND

Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities.

METHODS

Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US).

RESULTS

Combinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%-13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%-73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%-75.5% at ideal scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

Prioritizing Additional Data Collection to Reduce Decision Uncertainty in the HIV/AIDS Response in 6 US Cities: A Value of Information Analysis

OBJECTIVES

The ambitious goals of the US Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative will require a targeted, context-specific public health response. Model-based economic evaluation provides useful guidance for decision making while characterizing decision uncertainty. We aim to quantify the value of eliminating uncertainty about different parameters in selecting combination implementation strategies to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS in 6 US cities and identify future data collection priorities.

METHODS

We used a dynamic compartmental HIV transmission model developed for 6 US cities to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of combination implementation strategies. Using a metamodeling approach with nonparametric and deep learning methods, we calculated the expected value of perfect information, representing the maximum value of further research to eliminate decision uncertainty, and the expected value of partial perfect information for key groups of parameters that would be collected together in practice.

RESULTS

The population expected value of perfect information ranged from $59 683 (Miami) to $54 108 679 (Los Angeles). The rank ordering of expected value of partial perfect information on key groups of parameters were largely consistent across cities and highest for parameters pertaining to HIV risk behaviors, probability of HIV transmission, health service engagement, HIV-related mortality, health utility weights, and healthcare costs. Los Angeles was an exception, where parameters on retention in pre-exposure prophylaxis ranked highest in contributing to decision uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Funding additional data collection on HIV/AIDS may be warranted in Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York City. Value of information analysis should be embedded into decision-making processes on funding future research and public health intervention.

Can the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative transition the USA towards HIV/AIDS epidemic control?

: Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for six USA cities, we projected HIV incidence from 2020 to 2040 and estimated whether an established UNAIDS HIV epidemic control target could be met under ideal implementation of optimal combination strategies previously defined for each city. Four of six cities (Atlanta, Baltimore, New York City and Seattle) were projected to achieve epidemic control by 2040 and we identified differences in reaching epidemic control across racial/ethnic groups.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the State of Texas of the United States: Past Reflections, Present Shortcomings, and Future Needs of the Public Health Response

A strategy titled “Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America” aims to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence in the United States by at least 90% by 2030, using diagnosis, treatment, and prevention strategies. Texas is a Southern state that has one of the highest numbers of new HIV diagnoses and people with HIV in the country, and where HIV disproportionately impacts minorities. We retrace the historical epidemic in its largest city, Houston, to illustrate the lessons learned and milestones accomplished, which could serve as guideposts for the future. We examine the current epidemic in Texas, including the achieved levels of HIV testing, treatment continua, and pre-exposure prophylaxis prescription, and compare and contrast these with the national estimates and Plan targets. Our findings call for urgent and accelerated expansion of efforts to end HIV in Texas.

Challenges of reaching 90-90-90 in the Southern United States

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

More than half of new HIV diagnoses occur in the Southern United States where the epidemic disproportionately affects persons of color. Although other areas of the country are seeing dramatic declines in the number of new cases, the progress in the South lags behind. This review will examine the reasons for that disparity. Many are unique to the South.

RECENT FINDINGS

Despite advances in antiretroviral therapy for HIV, many in the South are not benefiting from these medications, at either a personal or public health level. The reasons are complex and include lack of access to healthcare, lower levels of funding than other areas of the country, stigma, structural racism, increased barriers due to social determinants of health, coexisting mental health disorders, substance use disorders and sexually transmitted diseases and insufficient workforce capacity to meet the needs of those living with HIV.

SUMMARY

These findings should underline the need for investment in the South for a holistic healthcare approach to persons living with HIV including supporting basic needs such as access to food, transportation and housing. Prioritization among politicians for policy and systems changes and approaches to decrease stigma and enhance education about HIV will be key.

Ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: an economic modelling study in six cities

BACKGROUND

The HIV epidemic in the USA is a collection of diverse local microepidemics. We aimed to identify optimal combination implementation strategies of evidence-based interventions to reach 90% reduction of incidence in 10 years, in six US cities that comprise 24·1% of people living with HIV in the USA.

METHODS

In this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated with the best available evidence on epidemiological and structural conditions for six US cities: Atlanta (GA), Baltimore (MD), Los Angeles (CA), Miami (FL), New York City (NY), and Seattle (WA). We assessed 23 040 combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions (ie, HIV prevention, testing, treatment, engagement, and re-engagement) to identify combination strategies providing the greatest health benefit while remaining cost-effective. Main outcomes included averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost (in 2018 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; from the health-care sector perspective, 3% annual discount rate). Interventions were implemented at previously documented and ideal (90% coverage or adoption) scale-up, and sustained from 2020 to 2030, with outcomes evaluated until 2040.

FINDINGS

Optimal combination strategies providing health benefit and cost-effectiveness contained between nine (Seattle) and 13 (Miami) individual interventions. If implemented at previously documented scale-up, these strategies could reduce incidence by between 30·7% (95% credible interval 19·1-43·7; Seattle) and 50·1% (41·5-58·0; New York City) by 2030, at ICERs ranging from cost-saving in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, to $95 416 per QALY in Seattle. Incidence reductions reached between 39·5% (26·3-53·8) in Seattle and 83·6% (70·8-87·0) in Baltimore at ideal implementation. Total costs of implementing strategies across the cities at previously documented scale-up reached $559 million per year in 2024; however, costs were offset by long-term reductions in new infections and delayed disease progression, with Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami projecting cost savings over the 20 year study period.

INTERPRETATION

Evidence-based interventions can deliver substantial public health and economic value; however, complementary strategies to overcome social and structural barriers to HIV care will be required to reach national targets of the ending the HIV epidemic initiative by 2030.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

The impact of localized implementation: determining the cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention and care interventions across six United States cities

OBJECTIVE

Effective interventions to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS can vary in their ability to deliver value at different levels of scale and in different epidemiological contexts. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment and prevention interventions implemented at previously documented scales of delivery in six US cities with diverse HIV microepidemics.

DESIGN

Dynamic HIV transmission model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

METHODS

We identified and estimated previously documented scale of delivery and costs for 16 evidence-based interventions from the US CDC's Compendium of Evidence-Based Interventions and Best Practices for HIV Prevention. Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City and Seattle, we estimated averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (healthcare perspective; 3% discount rate, 2018$US), for each intervention and city (10-year implementation) compared with the status quo over a 20-year time horizon.

RESULTS

Increased HIV testing was cost-saving or cost-effective across cities. Targeted preexposure prophylaxis for high-risk MSM was cost-saving in Miami and cost-effective in Atlanta ($6123/QALY), Baltimore ($18 333/QALY) and Los Angeles ($86 117/QALY). Interventions designed to improve antiretroviral therapy initiation provided greater value than other treatment engagement interventions. No single intervention was projected to reduce HIV incidence by more than 10.1% in any city.

CONCLUSION

Combination implementation strategies should be tailored to local epidemiological contexts to provide the most value. Complementary strategies addressing factors hindering access to HIV care will be necessary to meet targets for HIV elimination in the United States.

Development and Calibration of a Dynamic HIV Transmission Model for 6 US Cities

Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics.

Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], -1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, -2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

Structural Design and Data Requirements for Simulation Modelling in HIV/AIDS: A Narrative Review

Born out of a necessity for fiscal sustainability, simulation modeling is playing an increasingly prominent role in setting priorities for combination implementation strategies for HIV treatment and prevention globally. The design of a model and the data inputted into it are central factors in ensuring credible inferences. We executed a narrative review of a set of dynamic HIV transmission models to comprehensively synthesize and compare the structural design and the quality of evidence used to support each model. We included 19 models representing both generalized and concentrated epidemics, classified as compartmental, agent-based, individual-based microsimulation or hybrid in our review. We focused on four structural components (population construction; model entry, exit and HIV care engagement; HIV disease progression; and the force of HIV infection), and two analytical components (model calibration/validation; and health economic evaluation, including uncertainty analysis). While the models we reviewed focused on a variety of individual interventions and their combinations, their structural designs were relatively homogenous across three of the four focal components, with key structural elements influenced by model type and epidemiological context. In contrast, model entry, exit and HIV care engagement tended to differ most across models, with some health system interactions-particularly HIV testing-not modeled explicitly in many contexts. The quality of data used in the models and the transparency with which the data was presented differed substantially across model components. Representative and high-quality data on health service delivery were most commonly not accessed or were unavailable. The structure of an HIV model should ideally fit its epidemiological context and be able to capture all efficacious treatment and prevention services relevant to a robust combination implementation strategy. Developing standardized guidelines on evidence syntheses for health economic evaluation would improve transparency and help prioritize data collection to reduce decision uncertainty.

Antiretroviral drug-S for a possible HIV elimination

Although the combination of highly active antiretroviral therapy (cART) can remarkably control human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) replication, it fails to cure HIV/AIDS disease. It is attributed to the incapability of cART to eliminate persistent HIV-1 contained in latent reservoirs in the central nervous system (CNS) and other tissue organs. Thus, withdrawal of cART causes rebound viral replication and resurgent of HIV/AIDS. The lack of success on non-ART approaches for elimination of HIV-1 include the targeted molecules not reaching the CNS, not adjusting well with drug-resistant mutants, or unable to eliminate all components of viral life cycle. Here, we show that our newly discovered Drug-S can effectively inhibit HIV-1 infection and persistence at the low concentration without causing any toxicity to neuroimmune cells. Our results suggest that Drug-S may have a direct effect on viral structure, prevent rebounding of HIV-1 infection, and arrest progression into acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. We also observed that Drug-S is capable of crossing the blood-brain barrier, suggesting a potential antiretroviral drug for elimination of CNS viral reservoirs and self-renewal of residual HIV-1. These results outlined the possible mechanism(s) of action of Drug-S as a novel antiretroviral drug for elimination of HIV-1 replication by interfering the virion structure.

Heterogeneity in the costs of medical care among people living with HIV/AIDS in the United States

OBJECTIVE

The costs of medical care for people with HIV/AIDS (PWH) vary substantially across demographic groups, stages of disease progression and regionally across the United States. We aimed to estimate medical costs for PWH and examine the heterogeneity in costs within key patient groups typically distinguished in cost-effectiveness analyses.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using health administrative databases for diagnosed PWH in care at 17 HIV Research Network sites across the United States.

METHODS

We estimated mean quarterly costs for key patient groups using multivariable generalized linear mixed effects models. We used quantile regression to highlight differences in the effect of covariates within each patient group (difference between covariate estimates at the mean versus the 90th percentile of quarterly costs), identifying covariates with a larger effect among the highest cost PWH, or generating greater uncertainty in mean cost estimates.

RESULTS

Our sample included 40 022 patients with a median age of 39 years. Mean quarterly costs were highest for people who inject drugs with advanced disease progression and for PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Within patient groups, we found the most heterogeneity at different levels of resource use for PWH on ART and PWH off ART with CD4 cell counts less than 200 cells/μl, people who inject drugs, as well as PWH in the South.

CONCLUSION

The study quantifies heterogeneity in costs both across and within key PWH patient groups. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity analysis on cost estimates and may inform decisions on model structure in cost-effectiveness analyses on HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention strategies.

Combined estimation of disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy among treated individuals with HIV in the USA: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Accurately estimating HIV disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy (ART) can help inform interventions to control HIV microepidemics and mathematical models used to inform health-resource allocation decisions. Our objective was to estimate the monthly probabilities of on-ART CD4 T-cell count progression, mortality, ART dropout, and ART reinitiation using a continuous-time multistate Markov model. We also aimed to validate health-state transition probability estimates to ensure they accurately reproduced the regional HIV microepidemics across the USA.

METHODS

In our modelling study, we considered a cohort of patients from the HIV Research Network, a consortium of 17 adult and paediatric HIV-care providers located in the northeastern (n=8), southern (n=5), and western (n=4) regions of the USA. Individuals aged 15 years or older who were in HIV care (defined as one CD4 test and one HIV-care visit in a calendar year period) with at least one ART prescription between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2015, were included in the analysis. We used continuous-time multistate Markov models to estimate transitions between CD4 strata and between on-ART and off-ART states. We examined and adjusted for differences in probability of transition by region, race or ethnicity, sex, HIV risk group, and other baseline clinical indicators.

FINDINGS

The median age of the 32 242 individuals included in the analysis was 44 years (interquartile range 35-51). Over a median follow-up of 4·9 years (2·6-6·0), 8614 (26·7%) of 32 242 people interrupted ART and 1325 (4·1%) of 32 242 people died. Women, men who have sex with men, and individuals with no previous ART experience had greater increases in CD4 cell counts, whereas black people and people who inject drugs had increased probabilities of ART dropout and faster disease progression. Regardless of CD4 strata, individuals had increased hazard for ART dropout if they were from the south (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] range from 1·91, 95% CI 1·71-2·13, to 2·45, 2·29-2·62) or the west (aHR range from 1·29, 1·10-1·51, to 1·66, 1·51-1·82) of the USA, compared with individuals from the northeast USA.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show heterogeneities in disease progression during ART and probability of ART retention across race and ethnicity, HIV risk groups, and regions. These differences should be viewed as targets for intervention and should be incorporated in mathematical models of regional HIV microepidemics in the USA.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and Health Resources and Services Administration.

Developing a dynamic HIV transmission model for 6 U.S. cities: An evidence synthesis

BACKGROUND

Dynamic HIV transmission models can provide evidence-based guidance on optimal combination implementation strategies to treat and prevent HIV/AIDS. However, these models can be extremely data intensive, and the availability of good-quality data characterizing regional microepidemics varies substantially within and across countries. We aim to provide a comprehensive and transparent description of an evidence synthesis process and reporting framework employed to populate and calibrate a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model for six US cities.

METHODS

We executed a mixed-method evidence synthesis strategy to populate model parameters in six categories: (i) initial HIV-negative and HIV-infected populations; (ii) parameters used to calculate the probability of HIV transmission; (iii) screening, diagnosis, treatment and HIV disease progression; (iv) HIV prevention programs; (v) the costs of medical care; and (vi) health utility weights for each stage of HIV disease progression. We identified parameters that required city-specific data and stratification by gender, risk group and race/ethnicity a priori and sought out databases for primary analysis to augment our evidence synthesis. We ranked the quality of each parameter using context- and domain-specific criteria and verified sources and assumptions with our scientific advisory committee.

FINDINGS

To inform the 1,667 parameters needed to populate our model, we synthesized evidence from 59 peer-reviewed publications and 24 public health and surveillance reports and executed primary analyses using 11 data sets. Of these 1,667 parameters, 1,517 (91%) were city-specific and 150 (9%) were common for all cities. Notably, 1,074 (64%), 201 (12%) and 312 (19%) parameters corresponded to categories (i), (ii) and (iii), respectively. Parameters ranked as best- to moderate-quality evidence comprised 39% of the common parameters and ranged from 56%-60% across cities for the city-specific parameters. We identified variation in parameter values across cities as well as within cities across risk and race/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Better integration of modelling in decision making can be achieved by systematically reporting on the evidence synthesis process that is used to populate models, and by explicitly assessing the quality of data entered into the model. The effective communication of this process can help prioritize data collection of the most informative components of local HIV prevention and care services in order to reduce decision uncertainty and strengthen model conclusions.

Prevalence and correlates of HIV testing and HIV-positive status in the US: Results from the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions III (NESARC-III)

We used the 2012-2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions III (NESARC-III), a nationally representative sample of US adults (n = 34,653), to estimate the prevalence and correlates of HIV testing and HIV status. The diagnostic interview used was the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule-DSM-5 Version. We found that in 2012-2013, the prevalence of a history of HIV testing was 53.0% among females and 47.0% among males. Among individuals tested, the prevalence of HIV was 1.06%, resulting in a known estimated prevalence of 0.54% in the full sample. In adjusted results, being non-white, aged 30-44, having college, being non-heterosexual, having history of unprotected sex or history of childhood sexual abuse and lower mental health-related quality of life increased the odds of having been tested, whereas being foreign-born, 45 years or older, family income ≥$20,000, being unemployed or a student, living in a rural setting and older age at first sex lowered those odds. Among those tested, being 30-64, being non-heterosexual, having history of unprotected sex or having a sexually transmitted disease in the last year was associated with greater odds of being HIV+. Having some college decreased those odds. In the adjusted results all psychiatric disorders were associated with increased rates of HIV testing, but only a lifetime history of drug use disorder and antisocial personality disorders were associated with HIV status among those tested. Despite CDC recommendations, only about half of US adults have ever been tested for HIV, interfering with efforts to eradicate HIV infection.