Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic sea: a multi-model ensemble study

Phytoplankton stoichiometry along the salinity gradient under limited nutrient and light supply

Ongoing climate warming alters precipitation and water column stability, leading to salinity and nutrient supply changes in the euphotic zone of many coastal ecosystems and semi-enclosed seas. Changing salinity and nutrient conditions affect phytoplankton physiology by altering elemental ratios of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). This study aimed to understand how salinity stress and resource acquisition affect phytoplankton stoichiometry. We incubated a phytoplankton polyculture composed of 10 species under different light, inorganic nutrient ratio and salinity levels. At the end of the incubation period, we measured particulate elemental composition (C, N and P), chlorophyll a and species abundances. The phytoplankton polyculture, dominated by Phaeodactylum tricornutum, accumulated more particulate organic carbon (POC) with increasing salinity. The low POC and low particulate C:N and C:P ratios toward 0 psu suggest that the hypoosmotic conditions highly affected primary production. The relative abundance of different species varied with salinity, and some species grew faster under low nutrient supply. Still, the dominant diatom regulated the overall POC of the polyculture, following the classic concept of the foundation species.

Global nutrient equity for people and the planet

The industrial world has converted inert soil and atmospheric nutrients into reactive fertilizer flows that endanger water quality, biodiversity and climate. Simultaneously, poor nations starve because of the shortage of these nutrients in agricultural soils. Here we propose a redistribution of accumulated nutrients to enhance food security while counteracting the current degradation of critical Earth system processes. Residue and sediment nutrients could be processed and transported to food-insecure regions through the opposite logistics used to ship rock phosphate across the globe. Financing through trading accumulated rights could trigger the required innovations in processing, logistics and thinking. Such a socially just 'one Earth currency' could leverage a transformation towards resilience, equity and dignity across the critical Earth system processes.

Trend correlations for coastal eutrophication and its main local and whole-sea drivers - Application to the Baltic Sea

Coastal eutrophication is a major environmental issue worldwide. In the Baltic Sea, eutrophication affects both the coastal waters and the open sea. Various policy frameworks aim to hinder its progress but eutrophication-relevant water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a concentrations, still exhibit opposite temporal trends in various Baltic Sea marine and coastal waters. In this study, we investigate the temporal-trend linkages of measured water quality variables and their various anthropogenic, climatic and hydrospheric drivers over the period 1990-2020 with focus on the Swedish coastal waters and related marine basins in the Baltic Sea. We find that it is necessary to distinguish more and less isolated coastal waters, based on their water exchanges with the open sea, to capture different coastal eutrophication dynamics. In less isolated coastal waters, eutrophication is primarily related to nitrogen concentrations, while it is more related to phosphorus concentrations in more isolated coastal waters. In the open sea, trends in eutrophication conditions correlate best with trends in climatic and hydrospheric drivers, like wind speed and water salinity, respectively. In the coastal waters, driver signals are more mixed, with considerable influences from anthropogenic land-based nutrient loads and sea-ice cover duration. Summer chlorophyll-a concentration in the open sea stands out as a main change driver of summer chlorophyll-a concentration in less isolated coastal waters. Overall, coastal waters are a melting pot of driver influences over various scales, from local land-based drivers to large-scale total catchment and open sea conditions. The latter in turn depend on long-term integration of pathway-dependent influences from the various coastal parts of the Baltic Sea and their land-based nutrient load drivers, combined with overarching climate conditions and internal feedback loops. As such, our results challenge any unidirectional local source-to-sea paradigm and emphasize a need for concerted local land-catchment and whole-sea measures for robust coastal eutrophication management.

Management pathways for the successful reduction of nonpoint source nutrients in coastal ecosystems

Eutrophication remains a threat to coastal habitats and water quality worldwide. The U.S. Clean Water Act resulted in reductions of nutrient loading from point sources but management of nonpoint sources (NPS) of nutrients remains challenging despite efforts over at least three decades. The hydrological factors, best management practices (BMPs) and regulatory mechanisms that target nutrient NPS and improve coastal ecosystem function are poorly understood. We identified three case study sites in the U.S. with sufficient NPS management and monitoring history to quantify changes in estuarine habitat and water quality following BMP implementation and regulation targeting nutrient NPS. Utilizing publicly available data, we compared sites that are geographically distant and hydrologically distinct. We found that BMPs targeting NPS loads from surface waters into Roberts Bay (Florida) and Newport Bay (California) significantly reduced nutrient concentrations and harmful algal blooms within ~20 years. Improvements occurred despite concurrent human population growth within both watersheds. Conversely, we found that the majority of BMPs implemented within the Peconic Estuary (New York) watershed targeted surface waters despite a dominance of nitrogen inputs (97%) from groundwater and atmospheric sources. Declines in habitat and water quality in Peconic Estuary may be due to a failure to control the dominant nutrient sources and the long residence time of nitrogen in groundwater. Compared to surface water, reducing groundwater and atmospheric nutrients face greater technical and financial challenges. Improvements to Peconic Estuary may occur with further reductions in surface water inputs and as nutrients leach out of the groundwater. Although the effectiveness of specific NPS BMPs has been examined at small spatial scales, our study is the first to quantify improvements at a watershed scale. We showed that successful NPS management pathways are those which targeted the dominant sources of nutrients to coastal ecosystems and applied multiple BMPs within watersheds.

The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea case

Global environmental changes have accelerated at an unprecedented rate in recent decades due to human activities. As a consequence, the incidence of novel abiotic conditions and biotic communities, which have been continuously emerging in the Earth system, has rapidly risen. Despite growing attention to the incidence and challenges posed by novelty in terrestrial ecosystems, novelty has not yet been quantified in marine ecosystems. Here, we measured for the rate of novelty (RoN) in abiotic conditions and community structure for three trophic levels, i.e., phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish, in a large marine system - the Baltic Sea. We measured RoN as the degree of dissimilarity relative to a specific spatial and temporal baseline, and contrasted this with the rate of change as a measure of within-basin change over time. We found that over the past 35 years abiotic and biotic RoN showed complex dynamics varying in time and space, depending on the baseline conditions. RoN in abiotic conditions was smaller in the open Central Baltic Sea than in the Kattegat and the more enclosed Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga, and Gulf of Finland in the north. We found a similar spatial pattern for biotic assemblages, which resulted from changes in composition and stock size. We identified sea-surface temperature and salinity as key drivers of RoN in biotic communities. Hence, future environmental changes that are expected to affect the biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea, may favor the rise of biotic novelty. Our results highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of novelty development in marine ecosystems, including interactions between species and trophic levels, ecosystem functioning under novel abiotic conditions, and considering novelty in future management interventions.

The importance of adjusting contaminant concentrations using environmental data: A retrospective study of 25 years data in Baltic blue mussels

To improve the statistical power of detecting changes in contaminant concentrations over time, it is critical to reduce both the within- and between-year variability by adjusting the data for relevant confounding variables. In this study, we present a method for handling multiple confounding variables in contaminant monitoring. We evaluate the highly variable temporal trends of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in blue mussels from the central Baltic Sea during the period 1987-2016 (data from 25 years during this period) using various regression analyses. As potential explanatory variables related to PAH exposure, we use mussel size and retrospective analyses of mussel δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C (representing large scale biogeochemical changes as a result of e.g. eutrophication and terrestrial inputs). Environmental data from concurrent monitoring programmes (seasonal data on Chlorophyll-a, salinity and temperature in the water column, bioturbation of sediment dwelling fauna) were included as variables related to feeding conditions. The concentrations of high-molecular-weight and low-molecular-weight PAHs in blue mussel were statistically linked to different combinations of environmental variables. Adjustment using these predictors decreased the coefficient of variation in all 15 PAHs tested and improved the statistical power to detect changes. Moreover, the adjustment also resulted in a significant downward trend for fluoranthene that could not be detected initially. For another PAH, benzo(g,h,i)perylene, adjustment which reduced variation resulted in the loss of an apparent downward trend over time. Hence, our study highlights the importance of using auxilliary data to reduce variability caused by environmental factors with general effects on physiology when assessing contaminant time trends. Furthermore, it illustrates the importance of extensive and well designed monitoring programmes to provide relevant data.

Environmentally driven changes in Baltic salmon oxidative status during marine migration

The fitness and recruitment of fish stocks can be markedly affected by environmental disturbances including global warming, eutrophication and contamination. Understanding the effects of environmental stressors on salmon physiology during marine residence is of a global concern as marine survival has decreased. We present a unique combination of physiological responses - antioxidant defence and oxidative damage biomarkers, stable isotopes and contaminant exposure biomarkers - measured from adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) collected at the Baltic Sea and studied in relation to environmental variables and fitness estimates. The results demonstrate that feeding populations of salmon display marked temporal and spatial variation in oxidative status. Better oxidative status of salmon was characterized by a higher amount of reduced glutathione (GSH) and decreased lipid peroxidation (LPX), when the weight-at-age of 3-4-year old sprats was higher and contaminant exposure biomarker (EROD) was lower. Summer season conditions, which included cooler sea surface temperature (SST), higher bottom O₂ and less cyanobacteria also indicated conditions for better oxidative status. Summer SST was additionally shown to affected glutathione metabolism enzyme activities. Oxidative status was associated with stable isotopes δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N indicating indirect effect of abiotic conditions and lower levels of the food web. Differences in condition factor and growth were associated with oxidative status in one and two sea winter salmon, respectively. Wild salmon survival was higher in years when they had higher GSH and catalase activity and lower LPX. Enhanced glutathione metabolism and increased protein carbonyls were associated with higher occurrence of yolk-sac fry mortality (M74). Our results show that oxidative status can provide information on exposure to complex combinations of environmental conditions and stressors in the wild and provide a link of physiological function to individual and population level fitness effects.

Nutrient mitigation under the impact of climate and land-use changes: A hydro-economic approach to participatory catchment management

Excessive nutrient loadings into rivers are a well-known ecological problem. Implemented mitigation measures should ideally be cost-effective, but perfectly ranking alternative nutrient mitigation measures according to cost-effectiveness is a difficult methodological challenge. Furthermore, a particularly practical challenge is that cost-effective measures are not necessarily favoured by local stakeholders, and this may impede their successful implementation in practice. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures using a methodology that includes a participatory process and social learning to ensure their successful implementation. By combining cost data, hydrological modelling and a bottom-up approach for three different European catchment areas (the Latvian Berze, the Swedish Helge and the German Selke rivers), the cost-effectiveness of 16 nutrient mitigation measures were analysed under current conditions as well as under selected scenarios for future climate and land-use changes. Fertiliser reduction, wetlands, contour ploughing and municipal wastewater treatment plants are the measures that remove nutrients with the highest cost-effectiveness in the respective case study context. However, the results suggest that the cost-effectiveness of measures not only depends on their design, specific location and the conditions of the surrounding area, but is also affected by the future changes the area may be exposed to. Climate and land-use changes do not only affect the cost-effectiveness of measures, but also shape the overall nutrient loads and potential target levels in a catchment.

The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea-Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate

Nutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding the future functioning of coastal ecosystems, as it is an important component linking the benthic and pelagic realms. In this study, we extended an existing model of benthic macrofauna coupled with a physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea to study the combined effects of changing nutrient loads and climate on biomass and metabolism of benthic macrofauna historically and in scenarios for the future. Based on a statistical comparison with a large validation dataset of measured biomasses, the model showed good or reasonable performance across the different basins and depth strata in the model area. In scenarios with decreasing nutrient loads according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan but also with continued recent loads (mean loads 2012-2014), overall macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing were projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century despite improved oxygen conditions at the seafloor. Climate change led to intensified pelagic recycling of primary production and reduced export of particulate organic carbon to the seafloor with negative effects on macrofaunal biomass. In the high nutrient load scenario, representing the highest recorded historical loads, climate change counteracted the effects of increased productivity leading to a hyperbolic response: biomass and carbon processing increased up to mid-21st century but then decreased, giving almost no net change by the end of the 21st century compared to present. The study shows that benthic responses to environmental change are nonlinear and partly decoupled from pelagic responses and indicates that benthic-pelagic coupling might be weaker in a warmer and less eutrophic sea.

Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea

We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical-biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.

Geographic variation in fitness-related traits of the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus along the Baltic Sea-North Sea salinity gradient

In the course of the ongoing global intensification and diversification of human pressures, the study of variation patterns of biological traits along environmental gradients can provide relevant information on the performance of species under shifting conditions. The pronounced salinity gradient, co-occurrence of multiple stressors, and accelerated rates of change make the Baltic Sea and its transition to North Sea a suitable region for this type of study. Focusing on the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus, one of the main foundation species on hard-bottoms of the Baltic Sea, we analyzed the phenotypic variation among populations occurring along 2,000 km of coasts subjected to salinities from 4 to >30 and a variety of other stressors. Morphological and biochemical traits, including palatability for grazers, were recorded at 20 stations along the Baltic Sea and four stations in the North Sea. We evaluated in a common modeling framework the relative contribution of multiple environmental drivers to the observed trait patterns. Salinity was the main and, in some cases, the only environmental driver of the geographic trait variation in F. vesiculosus. The decrease in salinity from North Sea to Baltic Sea stations was accompanied by a decline in thallus size, photosynthetic pigments, and energy storage compounds, and affected the interaction of the alga with herbivores and epibiota. For some traits, drivers that vary locally such as wave exposure, light availability or nutrient enrichment were also important. The strong genetic population structure in this macroalgae might play a role in the generation and maintenance of phenotypic patterns across geographic scales. In light of our results, the desalination process projected for the Baltic Sea could have detrimental impacts on F. vesiculosus in areas close to its tolerance limit, affecting ecosystem functions such as habitat formation, primary production, and food supply.

Assessment of Changes in the Structure of Zooplankton Communities to Infer Water Quality of the Caspian Sea

The work aimed to study the structural variables of zooplankton to assess the water quality of the Caspian Sea. Studies of zooplankton were conducted in the spring and summer of 2008 and 2010. Abundance, biomass, an average individual mass of a specimen, Shannon Bi, Shannon Ab, Δ-Shannon indices, and Clarke’s W-statistic were calculated for zooplankton. Quantitative variables of zooplankton were the highest in the Northeastern and Northern Caspian, decreasing towards the Middle Caspian. In the Northeastern and Northern Caspian from spring to summer, the number of zooplankton, and the values of Shannon Bi and Shannon Ab indices decreased; the values of Δ-Shannon and Clarke’s W-statistic increased. In the Middle Caspian, the biomass of the community increased; the values of Δ-Shannon and Clarke’s W-statistic decreased. From spring to summer, the value of an average individual mass of a specimen decreased over the entire surveyed area. The jellyfish Blackfordia virginica and Moerisia pallasi significantly influenced the size structure of the holoplankton. Seasonal dynamics of structural variables of zooplankton as well as changes in water transparency showed that water quality improved from spring to summer in the shallow northern and northeastern areas of the sea, and decreased in the deep-water Middle Caspian.

Shipborne nutrient dynamics and impact on the eutrophication in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a severely eutrophicated sea-area where intense shipping as an additional nutrient source is a potential contributor to changes in the ecosystem. The impact of the two most important shipborne nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus, on the overall nutrient-phytoplankton-oxygen dynamics in the Baltic Sea was determined by using the coupled physical and biogeochemical model system General Estuarine Transport Model-Ecological Regional Ocean Model (GETM-ERGOM) in a cascade with the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. We compared two nutrient scenarios in the Baltic Sea: with (SHIP) and without nutrient input from ships (NOSHIP). The model uses the combined nutrient input from shipping-related waste streams and atmospheric depositions originating from the ship emission and calculates the effect of excess nutrients on the overall biogeochemical cycle, primary production, detritus formation and nutrient flows. The shipping contribution is about 0.3% of the total phosphorus and 1.25-3.3% of the total nitrogen input to the Baltic Sea, but their impact to the different biogeochemical variables is up to 10%. Excess nitrogen entering the N-limited system of the Baltic Sea slightly alters certain pathways: cyanobacteria growth is compromised due to extra nitrogen available for other functional groups while the biomass of diatoms and especially flagellates increases due to the excess of the limiting nutrient. In terms of the Baltic Sea ecosystem functioning, continuous input of ship-borne nitrogen is compensated by steady decrease of nitrogen fixation and increase of denitrification, which results in stationary level of total nitrogen content in the water. Ship-borne phosphorus input results in a decrease of phosphate content in the water and increase of phosphorus binding to sediments. Oxygen content in the water decreases, but reaches stationary state eventually.

Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations

An ensemble of regional climate change scenarios for the North Sea is validated and analyzed. Five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) using three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have been downscaled with the coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model RCA4-NEMO. Validation of sea surface temperature (SST) against different datasets suggests that the model results are well within the spread of observational datasets. The ensemble mean SST with a bias of less than 1 ∘ C is the solution that fits the observations best and underlines the importance of ensemble modeling. The exchange of momentum, heat, and freshwater between atmosphere and ocean in the regional, coupled model compares well with available datasets. The climatological seasonal cycles of these fluxes are within the 95% confidence limits of the datasets. Towards the end of the 21st century the projected North Sea SST increases by 1.5 ∘ C (RCP 2.6), 2 ∘ C (RCP 4.5), and 4 ∘ C (RCP 8.5), respectively. Under this change the North Sea develops a specific pattern of the climate change signal for the air–sea temperature difference and latent heat flux in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In the RCP 8.5 scenario the amplitude of the spatial heat flux anomaly increases to 5 W/m 2 at the end of the century. Different hypotheses are discussed that could contribute to the spatially non-uniform change in air–sea interaction. The most likely cause for an increased latent heat loss in the central western North Sea is a drier atmosphere towards the end of the century. Drier air in the lee of the British Isles affects the balance of the surface heat budget of the North Sea. This effect is an example of how regional characteristics modulate global climate change. For climate change projections on regional scales it is important to resolve processes and feedbacks at regional scales.

Integrating experimental and distribution data to predict future species patterns

Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.

A scalable dynamic characterisation approach for water quality management in semi-enclosed seas and archipelagos

In semi-enclosed seas, eutrophication may affect both the coastal waters and the whole sea. We develop and test a modelling approach that can account for nutrient loads from land as well as for influences and feedbacks on water quality across the scales of a whole semi-enclosed sea and its coastal zones. We test its applicability in the example cases of the Baltic Sea and one of its local archipelagos, the Archipelago Sea. For the Baltic Sea scale, model validation shows good representation of surface water quality dynamics and a generally moderate model performance for deeper waters. For the Archipelago Sea, management scenario simulations show that successful sea measures may have the most important effects on coastal water quality. This highlights the need to consistently account for whole-sea water-quality dynamics and management effects, in addition to effects of land drivers, in modelling for characterisation and management of local water quality.

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

Organic matter drives high interannual variability in methylmercury concentrations in a subarctic coastal sea

Levels of neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg) in phytoplankton are strongly associated with water MeHg concentrations. Because uptake by phytoplankton is the first and largest step of bioaccumulation in aquatic food webs many studies have investigated factors driving seasonal changes in water MeHg concentrations. Organic matter (OM) is widely accepted as an important driver of MeHg production and uptake by phytoplankton but is also known for strong interannual variability in concentration and composition within systems. In this study, we explore the role of OM on spatial and interannual variability of MeHg in a subarctic coastal sea, the northern Baltic Sea. Using MeHg (2014: 80 ± 25 fM; 2015: <LOD; 2016: 21 ± 9 fM) and OM measurements during late summer/early fall, we find that dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and humic matter content explain 60% of MeHg variability. We find that while labile DOC increases MeHg levels in the water, humic content reduces it. We propose that the positive association between MeHg and labile DOC shows that labile DOC is a proxy for OM remineralization rate in nearshore and offshore waters. This is consistent with other studies finding that in situ MeHg production in the water column occurs during OM remineralization. The negative association between water humic content and MeHg concentration is most likely due to humic matter decreasing inorganic mercury (Hg^II) bioavailability to methylating microbes. With these relationships, we develop a statistical model and use it to calculate MeHg concentrations in late summer nearshore and offshore waters between 2006 and 2016 using measured values for water DOC and humic matter content. We find that MeHg concentrations can vary by up to an order of magnitude between years, highlighting the importance of considering interannual variability in water column MeHg concentrations when interpreting both short and long term MeHg trends in biota.

Allochthonous matter: an important factor shaping the phytoplankton community in the Baltic Sea

It is well-known that nutrients shape phytoplankton communities in marine systems, but in coastal waters allochthonous dissolved organic matter (ADOM) may also be of central importance. We studied how humic substances (proxy of ADOM) and other variables influenced the nutritional strategies, size structure and pigment content of the phytoplankton community along a south-north gradient in the Baltic Sea. During the summer, the proportion of mixotrophs increased gradually from the phosphorus-rich south to the ADOM-rich north, probably due to ADOM-fueled microbes. The opposite trend was observed for autotrophs. The chlorophyll a (Chl a): carbon (C) ratio increased while the levels of photoprotective pigments decreased from south to north, indicating adaptation to the darker humic-rich water in the north. Picocyanobacteria dominated in phosphorus-rich areas while nanoplankton increased in ADOM-rich areas. During the winter-spring the phytoplankton biomass and concentrations of photoprotective pigments were low, and no trends with respect to autotrophs and mixotrophs were observed. Microplankton was the dominant size group in the entire study area. We conclude that changes in the size structure of the phytoplankton community, the Chl a:C ratio and the concentrations of photoprotective pigments are indicative of changes in ADOM, a factor of particular importance in a changing climate.

Projected habitat loss for Atlantic herring in the Baltic Sea

Projected, climate-driven changes in rainfall patterns are expected to alter the salinity (S) of estuaries and larger brackish water bodies, such as the Baltic Sea. Some marine fish larvae are potentially more sensitive to low salinity than older stages, hence we compared the low salinity tolerance of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) larvae at the individual and population levels including four populations in the North and Baltic Seas. Acute low salinity tolerance was similar (S = 1.9-2.7) across populations and increased with increasing body size. Based on this physiological threshold and a regionally down-scaled climate model, spawning habitats in the northern and eastern Baltic Sea are projected to be largely unsuitable for herring by 2100. Although adaptive mechanisms may attenuate the effect in some species, the limited physiological tolerance of fish larvae will remain an important bottleneck for the persistence of marine fish populations in brackish waters undergoing climate-driven freshening.

Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

Relationships between colored dissolved organic matter and dissolved organic carbon in different coastal gradients of the Baltic Sea

Due to high terrestrial runoff, the Baltic Sea is rich in dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the light-absorbing fraction of which is referred to as colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). Inputs of DOC and CDOM are predicted to increase with climate change, affecting coastal ecosystems. We found that the relationships between DOC, CDOM, salinity, and Secchi depth all differed between the two coastal areas studied; the W Gulf of Bothnia with high terrestrial input and the NW Baltic Proper with relatively little terrestrial input. The CDOM:DOC ratio was higher in the Gulf of Bothnia, where CDOM had a greater influence on the Secchi depth, which is used as an indicator of eutrophication and hence important for Baltic Sea management. Based on the results of this study, we recommend regular CDOM measurements in monitoring programmes, to increase the value of concurrent Secchi depth measurements.

Atmospheric pathways of chlorinated pesticides and natural bromoanisoles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment

Long-range atmospheric transport is a major pathway for delivering persistent organic pollutants to the oceans. Atmospheric deposition and volatilization of chlorinated pesticides and algae-produced bromoanisoles (BAs) were estimated for Bothnian Bay, northern Baltic Sea, based on air and water concentrations measured in 2011-2012. Pesticide fluxes were estimated using monthly air and water temperatures and assuming 4 months ice cover when no exchange occurs. Fluxes were predicted to increase by about 50 % under a 2069-2099 prediction scenario of higher temperatures and no ice. Total atmospheric loadings to Bothnian Bay and its catchment were derived from air-sea gas exchange and "bulk" (precipitation + dry particle) deposition, resulting in net gains of 53 and 46 kg year(-1) for endosulfans and hexachlorocyclohexanes, respectively, and net loss of 10 kg year(-1) for chlordanes. Volatilization of BAs releases bromine to the atmosphere and may limit their residence time in Bothnian Bay. This initial study provides baseline information for future investigations of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment.

Hierarchy of factors exerting an impact on nutrient load of the Baltic Sea and sustainable management of its drainage basin

The aim of the paper was to evaluate 23 catchment factors that determine total phosphorus and total nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea. Standard correlation analysis and clustering were used. Both phosphorus and nitrogen loads were found to be positively related to the number of pigs and the human population associated with wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) per km(2), while the number of cattle and agricultural area were found to influence nitrogen rather than phosphorus load, and the area of forests is negatively related to loads of both nutrients. Clustering indicates an overall north-south pattern in the spatial co-occurrence of socio-ecological factors, with some exceptions discussed in the paper. Positive steps in the Baltic Sea region have already been taken, but much remains to be done. The development of coherent response policies to reduce eutrophication in the Baltic Sea should be based on a comprehensive knowledge base, an appropriate information strategy and learning alliance platform in each drainage river catchments.

Multiple stressors threatening the future of the Baltic Sea-Kattegat marine ecosystem: implications for policy and management actions

The paper discusses the combined effects of ocean acidification, eutrophication and climate change on the Baltic Sea and the implications for current management strategies. The scientific basis is built on results gathered in the BONUS+ projects Baltic-C and ECOSUPPORT. Model results indicate that the Baltic Sea is likely to be warmer, more hypoxic and more acidic in the future. At present management strategies are not taking into account temporal trends and potential ecosystem change due to warming and/or acidification, and therefore fulfilling the obligations specified within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, OSPAR and HELCOM conventions and national environmental objectives may become significantly more difficult. The paper aims to provide a basis for a discussion on the effectiveness of current policy instruments and possible strategies for setting practical environmental objectives in a changing climate and with multiple stressors.

Air-water exchange of brominated anisoles in the northern Baltic Sea

Bromophenols produced by marine algae undergo O-methylation to form bromoanisoles (BAs), which are exchanged between water and air. BAs were determined in surface water of the northern Baltic Sea (Gulf of Bothnia, consisting of Bothnian Bay and Bothnian Sea) during 2011-2013 and on a transect of the entire Baltic in September 2013. The abundance decreased in the following order: 2,4,6-tribromoanisole (2,4,6-TBA)>2,4-dibromoanisole (2,4-DBA)≫2,6-dibromoanisole (2,6-DBA). Concentrations of 2,4-DBA and 2,4,6-TBA in September were higher in the southern than in the northern Baltic and correlated well with the higher salinity in the south. This suggests south-to-north advection and dilution with fresh riverine water enroute, and/or lower production in the north. The abundance in air over the northern Baltic also decreased in the following order: 2,4,6-TBA>2,4-DBA. However, 2,6-DBA was estimated as a lower limit due to breakthrough from polyurethane foam traps used for sampling. Water/air fugacity ratios ranged from 3.4 to 7.6 for 2,4-DBA and from 18 to 94 for 2,4,6-TBA, indicating net volatilization. Flux estimates using the two-film model suggested that volatilization removes 980-1360 kg of total BAs from Bothnian Bay (38000 km2) between May and September. The release of bromine from outgassing of BAs could be up to 4-6% of bromine fluxes from previously reported volatilization of bromomethanes and bromochloromethanes.

Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

Atmospheric nutrient input to the Baltic sea from 1850 to 2006: a reconstruction from modeling results and historical data

In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.

Uncertainties in a Baltic sea food-web model reveal challenges for future projections

Models that can project ecosystem dynamics under changing environmental conditions are in high demand. The application of such models, however, requires model validation together with analyses of model uncertainties, which are both often overlooked. We carried out a simplified model uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on an Ecopath with Ecosim food-web model of the Baltic Proper (BaltProWeb) and found the model sensitive to both variations in the input data of pre-identified key groups and environmental forcing. Model uncertainties grew particularly high in future climate change scenarios. For example, cod fishery recommendations that resulted in viable stocks in the original model failed after data uncertainties were introduced. In addition, addressing the trophic control dynamics produced by the food-web model proved as a useful tool for both model validation, and for studying the food-web function. These results indicate that presenting model uncertainties is necessary to alleviate ecological surprises in marine ecosystem management.

Modeling nutrient transports and exchanges of nutrients between shallow regions and the open Baltic sea in present and future climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.

Extremes of temperature, oxygen and blooms in the Baltic sea in a changing climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.

Climate change in the Baltic sea region: a cross-country analysis of institutional stakeholder perceptions

Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers' awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions.