Cost Effectiveness of the Earned Income Tax Credit as a Health Policy Investment

The Effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Physical and Mental health-Results from the Atlanta Paycheck Plus Experiment

Policy Points The Paycheck Plus randomized controlled trial tested a fourfold increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for single adults without dependent children over 3 years in New York and Atlanta. In New York, the intervention improved economic, mental, and physical health outcomes. In Atlanta, it had no economic benefit or impact on physical health and may have worsened mental health. In Atlanta, tax filing and bonus receipt were lower than in the New York arm of the trial, which may explain the lack of economic benefits. Lower mental health scores in the treatment group were driven by disadvantaged men, and the study sample was in good mental health.

CONTEXT

The Paycheck Plus experiment examined the effects of an enhanced Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for single adults on economic and health outcomes in Atlanta, GA and New York City (NYC). The NYC study was completed two years prior to the Atlanta study and found mental and physical benefits for the subgroups that responded best to the economic incentives provided. In this article, we present the findings from the Atlanta study, in which the uptake of the treatment (tax filings and EITC bonus) were lower and economic and health benefits were not observed.

METHODS

Paycheck Plus Atlanta was an unblinded randomized controlled trial that assigned n = 3,971 participants to either the standard federal EITC (control group) or an EITC supplement of up to $2,000 (treatment group) for three tax years (2017-2019). Administrative data on employment and earnings were obtained from the Georgia Department of Labor and survey data were used to examine validated measures of health and well-being.

FINDINGS

In Atlanta, the treatment group had significantly higher earnings in the first project year but did not have significantly higher cumulative earnings than the control group overall (mean difference = $1,812, 95% CI = -150, 3,774, p = 0.07). The treatment group also had significantly lower scores on two measures of mental health after the intervention was complete: the Patient Health Questionnaire 8 (mean difference = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.32, p = 0.005) and the Kessler 6 (mean difference = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.03, 0.27, p = 0.012). Secondary analyses suggested these results were driven by disadvantaged men, but the study sample was in good mental health.

CONCLUSIONS

The EITC experiment in Atlanta was not associated with gains in earnings or improvements in physical or mental health.

Potential gaps in income support policies for those in poor health: The case of the earned income tax credit-A cross sectional analysis

Background

The federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the primary income support program for low-income workers in the U.S., but its design may hinder its effectiveness when poor health limits, but does not preclude, work.

Methods

Cross-sectional analysis of nationally-representative U.S. Census Current Population Survey (CPS) data covering 2019. Working-age adults eligible to receive federal EITC were included in this study. Poor health, as indicated by self-report of at least one problem with hearing, vision, cognitive function, mobility, dressing and bathing, or independence, was the exposure. The main outcome was federal EITC benefit category, categorized as no benefit, phase-in (income too low for the maximum benefit), plateau (maximum benefit), phase-out (income above threshold for maximum benefit), or earnings too high to receive any benefit. We estimated EITC benefit category probabilities by health status using multinomial logistic regression. We further examined whether other government benefits provided additional income support to those in poor health.

Results

41,659 participants (representing 87.1 million individuals) were included. 2,724 participants (representing 5.6 million individuals) reported poor health. In analyses standardized over age, gender, race, and ethnicity, those in poor health, compared with those not in poor health, were more likely to be in the no benefit (2.40% vs. 0.30%, risk difference 2.10 percentage points [95%CI 1.75 to 2.46 percentage points]), and phase-in (9.28% vs. 2.74%, risk difference 6.54 percentage points [95%CI 5.82 to 7.26 percentage points]) categories. Differences in resources by health status persisted even after accounting for other government benefits.

Conclusions

EITC program design creates an important gap in income support for those for whom poor health limits work, which is not closed by other programs. Filling this gap is an important public health goal.

US State Policy Contexts and Population Health

Policy Points This Perspective connects the dots between the polarization in US states' policy contexts and the divergence in population health across states. Key interlocking forces that fueled this polarization are the political investments of wealthy individuals and organizations and the nationalization of US political parties. Key policy priorities for the next decade include ensuring all Americans have opportunities for economic security, deterring behaviors that kill or injure hundreds of thousands of Americans each year, and protecting voting rights and democratic functioning.

Earned Income Tax Credit and Youth Violence: Findings from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

Family- and neighborhood-level poverty are associated with youth violence. Economic policies may address this risk factor by reducing parental stress and increasing opportunities. The federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the largest cash transfer program in the US providing support to low-income working families. Many states have additional EITCs that vary in structure and generosity. To estimate the association between state EITC and youth violence, we conducted a repeated cross-sectional analysis using the variation in state EITC generosity over time by state and self-reported data in the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) from 2005 to 2019. We estimated the association for all youth and then stratified by sex and race and ethnicity. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 3.8% lower prevalence of physical fighting among youth, overall (PR: 0.96; 95% CI 0.94-0.99), and for male students, 149 fewer (95% CI: -243, -55) students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 118 fewer (95% CI: -184, -52) White students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting in the past 12 months while reductions among Black students (75 fewer; 95% CI: -176, 26) and Hispanic/Latino students (14 fewer; 95% CI: -93, 65) were not statistically significant. State EITC generosity was not significantly associated with measures of violence at school. Economic policies that increase financial security and provide financial resources may reduce the burden of youth violence; further attention to their differential benefits among specific population subgroups is warranted.

U.S. state policy contexts and mortality of working-age adults

The rise in working-age mortality rates in the United States in recent decades largely reflects stalled declines in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality alongside rising mortality from alcohol-induced causes, suicide, and drug poisoning; and it has been especially severe in some U.S. states. Building on recent work, this study examined whether U.S. state policy contexts may be a central explanation. We modeled the associations between working-age mortality rates and state policies during 1999 to 2019. We used annual data from the 1999-2019 National Vital Statistics System to calculate state-level age-adjusted mortality rates for deaths from all causes and from CVD, alcohol-induced causes, suicide, and drug poisoning among adults ages 25-64 years. We merged that data with annual state-level data on eight policy domains, such as labor and taxes, where each domain was scored on a 0-1 conservative-to-liberal continuum. Results show that the policy domains were associated with working-age mortality. More conservative marijuana policies and more liberal policies on the environment, gun safety, labor, economic taxes, and tobacco taxes in a state were associated with lower mortality in that state. Especially strong associations were observed between certain domains and specific causes of death: between the gun safety domain and suicide mortality among men, between the labor domain and alcohol-induced mortality, and between both the economic tax and tobacco tax domains and CVD mortality. Simulations indicate that changing all policy domains in all states to a fully liberal orientation might have saved 171,030 lives in 2019, while changing them to a fully conservative orientation might have cost 217,635 lives.

Racial Differences in the Association between the U.S. Earned Income Tax Credit and Birthweight

OBJECTIVE

We examined whether the largest U.S. poverty alleviation program for families, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), has different associations with birthweight among women of different racial backgrounds.

DESIGN

We analyzed data from the 1985-2015 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, a longitudinal cohort study of U.S. families (N = 5,230 infants born to 3,672 women). The primary outcome was a continuous measure of birthweight, with secondary outcomes including low birthweight (LBW) and very LBW. Using rich sociodemographic data available in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we calculated the amount of EITC benefit for which women were eligible. We then examined the association of EITC benefit size with each outcome using multivariable regressions, examining the sample overall as well as racial subgroups (White, Black, or other).

RESULTS

We found that larger EITC benefits were not associated with increased infant birthweight for the overall sample (18.37 g per $1,000 of EITC; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.62 to 33.36). There was an increase in birthweight for Black women (40.17 g; 95% CI: 7.32 to 73.02), but not for White women (-1.86 g; 95% CI, -33.33 to 29.60) or women of other races (-13.26 g; 95% CI, -75.90 to 49.38). There was no association between EITC benefit size and the probability of LBW or very LBW. Results were robust to alternative model specifications.

CONCLUSIONS

Social policies to address poverty may be effective at decreasing racial disparities in birthweight. Future work should examine potential mechanisms and the benefits of improved health outcomes for children later in life.

U.S. State Policy Contexts and Physical Health among Midlife Adults

This study examines how state policy contexts may have contributed to unfavorable adult health in recent decades. It merges individual-level data from the 1993-2016 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n=2,166,835) with 15 state-level policy domains measured annually on a conservative to liberal continuum. We examined associations between policy domains and health among adults ages 45-64 years and assess how much of the associations is accounted by adults' socioeconomic, behavioral/lifestyle, and family factors. A more liberal version of the civil rights domain was associated with better health. It was disproportionately important for less-educated adults and women, and its association with adult health was partly accounted by educational attainment, employment, and income. Environment, gun safety, and marijuana policy domains were, to a lesser degree, predictors of health in some model specifications. In sum, health improvements require a greater focus on macro-level factors that shape the conditions in which people live.

Effect of Expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit to Americans Without Dependent Children on Psychological Distress

Antipoverty policies have the potential to improve mental health. We conducted a randomized trial (Paycheck Plus Health Study Randomized Controlled Trial, New York, New York) to investigate whether a 4-fold increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income Americans without dependent children would reduce psychological distress relative to the current federal credit. Between 2013 and 2014, a total of 5,968 participants were recruited; 2,997 were randomly assigned to the treatment group and 2,971 were assigned to the control group. Survey data were collected 32 months postrandomization (n = 4,749). Eligibility for the program increased employment by 1.9 percentage points and after-bonus earnings by 6% ($635/year), on average, over the 3 years of the study. Treatment was associated with a marginally statistically significant decline in psychological distress, as measured by the 6-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, relative to the control group (score change = -0.30 points, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.63, 0.03; P = 0.072). Women in the treated group experienced a half-point reduction in psychological distress (score change = -0.55 points, 95% CI: -0.97, -0.13; P = 0.032), and noncustodial parents had a 1.36-point reduction (95% CI: -2.24, -0.49; P = 0.011). Expansion of a large antipoverty program to individuals without dependent children reduced psychological distress for women and noncustodial parents-the groups that benefitted the most in terms of increased after-bonus earnings.

How does income affect mental health and health behaviours? A quasi-experimental study of the earned income tax credit

BACKGROUND

Although research has repeatedly demonstrated the association between poverty, mental health, and health behaviours, there is limited evidence on the effects of interventions to improve these outcomes by addressing poverty directly. Moreover, most prior studies are often confounded by unobserved characteristics of individuals, making it difficult to inform possible interventions. We addressed this gap in the literature by leveraging quasi-random variation in the earned income tax credit (EITC)-the largest US poverty alleviation programme for families with children-to examine the effects on overall health, psychological distress, smoking, and alcohol consumption.

METHODS

We used a large diverse national sample drawn from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (N=34 824). We first conducted ordinary least squares (OLS) models to estimate the association of income and the EITC with the outcomes of interest. We subsequently employed a quasi-experimental instrumental variables (IV) analysis-in which EITC refund size was the instrument-to estimate the effect of income itself.

RESULTS

In OLS models, higher income was associated with reductions in psychological distress, increased drinking, increased smoking, and more cigarettes per day, and larger EITC refunds were associated with reductions in psychological distress. In IV models, higher income was associated with decreased psychological distress.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that typical correlational studies of the health effects of income may be confounded, although results may not generalise to income distributed in different ways than the EITC. The findings also provide valuable information for policymakers and researchers seeking to address socioeconomic disparities in mental health.

Cash Transfers and Health

Financial resources are known to affect health outcomes. Many types of social policies and programs, including social assistance and social insurance, have been implemented around the world to increase financial resources. We refer to these as cash transfers. In this article, we discuss theory and evidence on whether, how, for whom, and to what extent purposeful cash transfers improve health. Evidence suggests that cash transfers produce positive health effects, but there are many complexities and variations in the outcomes. Continuing research and policy innovation-for example, universal basic income and universal Child Development Accounts-are likely to be productive.

Anti-poverty policy and health: Attributes and diffusion of state earned income tax credits across U.S. states from 1980 to 2020

PURPOSE

The U.S. federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is often considered the most effective antipoverty program for families in the U.S., leading to a variety of improved outcomes such as educational attainment, work incentives, economic activity, income, and health benefits for mothers, infants and children. State EITC supplements to the federal credit can significantly enhance the magnitude of this intervention. In this paper we advance EITC and health research by: 1) describing the diffusion of state EITC policies over 40 years, 2) presenting patterns in important EITC policy dimensions across space and time, and 3) disseminating a robust data set to advance future research by policy analysts and scientists.

METHODS

We used current public health law research methods to systematically collect, conduct textual legal analysis, and numerically code all EITC legislative changes from 1980 through 2020 in the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

RESULTS

First, the pattern of diffusion across states and time shows initial introductions during the 1990s in the Midwest, then spreading to the Northeast, with more recent expansions in the West and South. Second, differences by state and time of important policy dimensions are evident, including size of credit and refundability. Third, state EITC benefits vary considerably by household structure.

CONCLUSION

Continued research on health outcomes is warranted to capture the full range of potential beneficial effects of EITCs on family and child wellbeing. Lawyers and policy analysts can collaborate with epidemiologists and economists on other high-quality empirical studies to assess the many dimensions of policy and law that potentially affect the social determinants of health.

Short-term effects of the earned income tax credit on mental health and health behaviors

Poverty has consistently been linked to poor mental health and risky health behaviors, yet few studies evaluate the effectiveness of programs and policies to address these outcomes by targeting poverty itself. We test the hypothesis that the earned income tax credit (EITC)-the largest U.S. poverty alleviation program-improves short-term mental health and health behaviors in the months immediately after income receipt. We conducted parallel analyses in two large longitudinal national data sets: the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS, 1997-2016, N = 379,603) and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID, 1985-2015, N = 29,808). Outcomes included self-rated health, psychological distress, tobacco use, and alcohol consumption. We employed difference-in-differences analysis, a quasi-experimental technique. We exploited seasonal variation in disbursement of the EITC, which is distributed as a tax refund every spring: we compared outcomes among EITC-eligible individuals interviewed immediately after refund receipt (Feb-Apr) with those interviewed in other months more distant from refund receipt (May-Jan), "differencing out" seasonal trends among non-eligible individuals. For most outcomes, we were unable to rule out the null hypothesis that there was no short-term effect of the EITC. Findings were cross-validated in both data sets. The exception was an increase in smoking in PSID, although this finding was not robust to sensitivity analyses. While we found no short-term "check effect" of the EITC on mental health and health behaviors, others have found long-term effects on these outcomes. This may be because recipients anticipate EITC receipt and smooth their income accordingly.

Can antipoverty programmes save lives? Quasi-experimental evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit in the USA

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of state-level supplements of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on mortality in the USA. The EITC supplements the wages of lower-income workers by providing larger returns when taxes are filed.

SETTING

Nationwide sample spanning 25 cohorts of people across every state in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

793 000 respondents within the National Longitudinal Mortality Survey (NLMS) between 1986 and 2011, a representative sample of the USA.

INTERVENTION

State-level supplementation to the EITC programme. Some, but not all, states added EITC supplementation to varying degrees beginning in 1986 (Wisconsin) and most recently in 2015 (California). Participants who were eligible in states with supplementary programmes were compared with those who were not eligible for supplementation. Comparisons were made both before and after implementation of the supplementary programme (a difference-in-difference, intent-to-treat analysis). This quasi-experimental approach further controls for age, gender, marital status, race or ethnicity, educational attainment, income and employment status.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was survival at 10 years. Secondary outcome measures included survival at 5 years and survival to the end of the intervention period.

RESULTS

We find an association between state supplemental EITC and survival, with a HR of 0.973 (95% CI=0.951-0.996) for each US$100 of EITC increase (p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

State-level supplemental EITC may be an effective means of increasing survival in the USA.

Reducing poverty among children: Evidence from state policy simulations

State approaches to reducing child poverty vary considerably. We exploit this state-level variation to estimate what could be achieved in terms of child poverty if all states adopted the most generous or inclusive states' policies. Specifically, we simulate the child poverty reductions that would occur if every state were as generous or inclusive as the most generous or inclusive state in four key policies: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), and state Child Tax Credits (CTC). We find that adopting the most generous or inclusive state EITC policy would have the largest impact on child poverty, reducing it by 1.2 percentage points, followed by SNAP, TANF, and lastly state CTC. If all states were as generous or inclusive as the most generous or inclusive state in all four policies, the child poverty rate would decrease by 2.5 percentage points, and five and a half million children would be lifted out of poverty.

The Health Effects Of Expanding The Earned Income Tax Credit: Results From New York City

Antipoverty policies may hold promise as tools to improve health and reduce mortality rates among low-income Americans. We examined the health effects of the New York City Paycheck Plus randomized controlled trial. Paycheck Plus tests the impact of a potential fourfold increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income Americans without dependent children. Starting in 2015, Paycheck Plus offered 5,968 study participants a credit of up to $2,000 at tax time (treatment) or the standard credit of about $500 (control). Health-related quality of life and other outcomes for a representative subset of these participants (n = 3,289) were compared to those of a control group thirty-two months after randomization. The intervention had a modest positive effect on employment and earnings, particularly among women. It had no effect on health-related quality of life for the overall sample, but women realized significant improvements.

Health and economic consequences of applying the United States' PM2.5 automobile emission standards to other nations: a case study of France and Italy

OBJECTIVES

The US has among the world's strictest automobile emission standards, but it is now loosening them. It is unclear where a nation should draw the line between the associated cost burden imposed by regulations and the broader societal benefits associated with having cleaner air. Our study examines the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of introducing stricter vehicle emission standards in France and Italy.

STUDY DESIGN

Quasi-experimental study.

METHODS

We used cost-effectiveness modeling to measure the incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost (Euros) of adopting more stringent US vehicle emission standards for PM2.5 in France and Italy.

RESULTS

Adopting Obama era US vehicle emission standards would likely save money and lives for both the French and Italian populations. In France, adopting US emission standards would save €1000 and increase QALYs by 0.04 per capita. In Italy, the stricter standards would save €3000 and increase QALYs by 0.31. The results remain robust in both the sensitivity analysis and probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting more stringent emission standards in France and Italy would save money and lives.

Can Social Policies Improve Health? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 38 Randomized Trials

Policy Points

Social policies might not only improve economic well‐being, but also health. Health policy experts have therefore advocated for investments in social policies both to improve population health and potentially reduce health system costs.

Since the 1960s, a large number of social policies have been experimentally evaluated in the United States. Some of these experiments include health outcomes, providing a unique opportunity to inform evidence‐based policymaking.

Our comprehensive review and meta‐analysis of these experiments find suggestive evidence of health benefits associated with investments in early life, income support, and health insurance interventions. However, most studies were underpowered to detect health outcomes.

Context

Insurers and health care providers are investing heavily in nonmedical social interventions in an effort to improve health and potentially reduce health care costs.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and meta‐analysis of all known randomized social experiments in the United States that included health outcomes. We reviewed 5,880 papers, reports, and data sources, ultimately including 61 publications from 38 randomized social experiments. After synthesizing the main findings narratively, we conducted risk of bias analyses, power analyses, and random‐effects meta‐analyses where possible. Finally, we used multivariate regressions to determine which study characteristics were associated with statistically significant improvements in health outcomes.

Findings

The risk of bias was low in 17 studies, moderate in 11, and high in 33. Of the 451 parameter estimates reported, 77% were underpowered to detect health outcomes. Among adequately powered parameters, 49% demonstrated a significant health improvement, 44% had no effect on health, and 7% were associated with significant worsening of health. In meta‐analyses, early life and education interventions were associated with a reduction in smoking (odds ratio [OR] = 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86‐0.99). Income maintenance and health insurance interventions were associated with significant improvements in self‐rated health (OR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.06‐1.36, and OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.10‐1.73, respectively), whereas some welfare‐to‐work interventions had a negative impact on self‐rated health (OR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.66‐0.90). Housing and neighborhood trials had no effect on the outcomes included in the meta‐analyses. A positive effect of the trial on its primary socioeconomic outcome was associated with higher odds of reporting health improvements. We found evidence of publication bias for studies with null findings.

Conclusions

Early life, income, and health insurance interventions have the potential to improve health. However, many of the included studies were underpowered to detect health effects and were at high or moderate risk of bias. Future social policy experiments should be better designed to measure the association between interventions and health outcomes.

Why does the importance of education for health differ across the United States?

The positive association between educational attainment and adult health ("the gradient") is stronger in some areas of the United States than in others. Explanations for the geographic pattern have not been rigorously investigated. Grounded in a contextual and life course perspective, this study assesses childhood circumstances (e.g., childhood health, compulsory schooling laws) and adult circumstances (e.g., wealth, lifestyles, economic policies) as potential explanations. Using data on US-born adults aged 50-59 at baseline (N=13,095) and followed for up to 16 years across the 1998-2014 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, this study examined how and why educational gradients in morbidity, functioning, and mortality vary across nine U.S. regions. The findings indicate that the gradient is stronger in some areas than others partly because of geographic differences in childhood socioeconomic conditions and health, but mostly because of geographic differences in adult circumstances such as wealth, lifestyles, and economic and tobacco policies.

Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates in the United States, 1959-2017

Importance

US life expectancy has not kept pace with that of other wealthy countries and is now decreasing.

Objective

To examine vital statistics and review the history of changes in US life expectancy and increasing mortality rates; and to identify potential contributing factors, drawing insights from current literature and an analysis of state-level trends.

Evidence

Life expectancy data for 1959-2016 and cause-specific mortality rates for 1999-2017 were obtained from the US Mortality Database and CDC WONDER, respectively. The analysis focused on midlife deaths (ages 25-64 years), stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and geography (including the 50 states). Published research from January 1990 through August 2019 that examined relevant mortality trends and potential contributory factors was examined.

Findings

Between 1959 and 2016, US life expectancy increased from 69.9 years to 78.9 years but declined for 3 consecutive years after 2014. The recent decrease in US life expectancy culminated a period of increasing cause-specific mortality among adults aged 25 to 64 years that began in the 1990s, ultimately producing an increase in all-cause mortality that began in 2010. During 2010-2017, midlife all-cause mortality rates increased from 328.5 deaths/100 000 to 348.2 deaths/100 000. By 2014, midlife mortality was increasing across all racial groups, caused by drug overdoses, alcohol abuse, suicides, and a diverse list of organ system diseases. The largest relative increases in midlife mortality rates occurred in New England (New Hampshire, 23.3%; Maine, 20.7%; Vermont, 19.9%) and the Ohio Valley (West Virginia, 23.0%; Ohio, 21.6%; Indiana, 14.8%; Kentucky, 14.7%). The increase in midlife mortality during 2010-2017 was associated with an estimated 33 307 excess US deaths, 32.8% of which occurred in 4 Ohio Valley states.

Conclusions and Relevance

US life expectancy increased for most of the past 60 years, but the rate of increase slowed over time and life expectancy decreased after 2014. A major contributor has been an increase in mortality from specific causes (eg, drug overdoses, suicides, organ system diseases) among young and middle-aged adults of all racial groups, with an onset as early as the 1990s and with the largest relative increases occurring in the Ohio Valley and New England. The implications for public health and the economy are substantial, making it vital to understand the underlying causes.

Educational Disparities in Adult Mortality Across U.S. States: How Do They Differ, and Have They Changed Since the Mid-1980s?

Adult mortality varies greatly by educational attainment. Explanations have focused on actions and choices made by individuals, neglecting contextual factors such as economic and policy environments. This study takes an important step toward explaining educational disparities in U.S. adult mortality and their growth since the mid-1980s by examining them across U.S. states. We analyzed data on adults aged 45-89 in the 1985-2011 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File (721,448 adults; 225,592 deaths). We compared educational disparities in mortality in the early twenty-first century (1999-2011) with those of the late twentieth century (1985-1998) for 36 large-sample states, accounting for demographic covariates and birth state. We found that disparities vary considerably by state: in the early twenty-first century, the greater risk of death associated with lacking a high school credential, compared with having completed at least one year of college, ranged from 40 % in Arizona to 104 % in Maryland. The size of the disparities varies across states primarily because mortality associated with low education varies. Between the two periods, higher-educated adult mortality declined to similar levels across most states, but lower-educated adult mortality decreased, increased, or changed little, depending on the state. Consequently, educational disparities in mortality grew over time in many, but not all, states, with growth most common in the South and Midwest. The findings provide new insights into the troubling trends and disparities in U.S. adult mortality.

America's Declining Well-Being, Health, and Life Expectancy: Not Just a White Problem

Although recent declines in life expectancy among non-Hispanic Whites, coined "deaths of despair," grabbed the headlines of most major media outlets, this is neither a recent problem nor is it confined to Whites. The decline in America's health has been described in the public health literature for decades and has long been hypothesized to be attributable to an array of worsening psychosocial problems that are not specific to Whites. To test some of the dominant hypotheses, we show how various measures of despair have been increasing in the United States since 1980 and how these trends relate to changes in health and longevity. We show that mortality increases among Whites caused by the opioid epidemic come on the heels of the crack and HIV syndemic among Blacks. Both occurred on top of already higher mortality rates among all Americans relative to people in other nations, and both occurred among declines in measures of well-being. We believe that the attention given to Whites is distracting researchers and policymakers from much more serious, longer-term structural problems that affect all Americans.

Improving population health by reducing poverty: New York's Earned Income Tax Credit

Despite the established relationship between adverse health outcomes and low socioeconomic status, researchers rarely test the link between health improvements and poverty-alleviating economic policies. New research, however, links individual-level health improvements to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), a broad-based income support policy. We build on these findings by examining whether the EITC has ecological, neighborhood-level health effects. We use a difference-in-difference analysis to measure child health outcomes in 90 low- and middle- income neighborhoods before and after the expansion of New York State and New York City's EITC policy between 1997-2010. Our study takes advantage of the relatively exogenous source of income variation supplied by the EITC-legislative changes to EITC policy parameters. This feature minimizes the endogeneity problem in studying the relationship between income and health. Our estimates link a 15-percentage-point increase in EITC benefit rates to a 0.45 percentage-point reduction in the low birthweight rate. We do not observe any measurable link between EITC benefits and prenatal health or asthma-related pediatric hospitalization. The magnitude of the EITC's impact on low birthweight rates suggests ecological effects, and an additional channel through which anti-poverty measures can serve as public health interventions.

Subjective assessments of income and social class on health and survival: An enigma

We examined the association between various measures of subjective social class identification (SSCI) and self-rated health as well as survival using the 2014 General Social Survey-National Death Index dataset (n = 21,108). We used multinomial logistic regression models to assess the association between SSCI and self-rated health and used Cox proportional hazards to assess the association between SSCI and survival. All analyses were adjusted for age, year at interview, race, gender, family income, and educational attainment level. The measures of SSCI that we had available were strongly correlated with self-rated health after controlling for objective measures of social status. For example, those who saw themselves as lower class were nine times as likely to self-report poor rather than excellent health status (odds ratio = 8.69; 95% confidence interval = 5.04-14.98) compared with those saw themselves as upper class. However, no such associations were observed for survival. While our alternative measures of SSCI were important predictors of self-rated health, they were not predictive of survival. This suggests that there may be potential confounding between two perceptions: SSCI and self-rated health.

Socioeconomic status and the 25 × 25 risk factors as determinants of premature mortality: a multicohort study and meta-analysis of 1·7 million men and women

BACKGROUND

In 2011, WHO member states signed up to the 25 × 25 initiative, a plan to cut mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 25% by 2025. However, socioeconomic factors influencing non-communicable diseases have not been included in the plan. In this study, we aimed to compare the contribution of socioeconomic status to mortality and years-of-life-lost with that of the 25 × 25 conventional risk factors.

METHODS

We did a multicohort study and meta-analysis with individual-level data from 48 independent prospective cohort studies with information about socioeconomic status, indexed by occupational position, 25 × 25 risk factors (high alcohol intake, physical inactivity, current smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity), and mortality, for a total population of 1 751 479 (54% women) from seven high-income WHO member countries. We estimated the association of socioeconomic status and the 25 × 25 risk factors with all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality by calculating minimally adjusted and mutually adjusted hazard ratios [HR] and 95% CIs. We also estimated the population attributable fraction and the years of life lost due to suboptimal risk factors.

FINDINGS

During 26·6 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 13·3 years [SD 6·4 years]), 310 277 participants died. HR for the 25 × 25 risk factors and mortality varied between 1·04 (95% CI 0·98-1·11) for obesity in men and 2 ·17 (2·06-2·29) for current smoking in men. Participants with low socioeconomic status had greater mortality compared with those with high socioeconomic status (HR 1·42, 95% CI 1·38-1·45 for men; 1·34, 1·28-1·39 for women); this association remained significant in mutually adjusted models that included the 25 × 25 factors (HR 1·26, 1·21-1·32, men and women combined). The population attributable fraction was highest for smoking, followed by physical inactivity then socioeconomic status. Low socioeconomic status was associated with a 2·1-year reduction in life expectancy between ages 40 and 85 years, the corresponding years-of-life-lost were 0·5 years for high alcohol intake, 0·7 years for obesity, 3·9 years for diabetes, 1·6 years for hypertension, 2·4 years for physical inactivity, and 4·8 years for current smoking.

INTERPRETATION

Socioeconomic circumstances, in addition to the 25 × 25 factors, should be targeted by local and global health strategies and health risk surveillance to reduce mortality.

FUNDING

European Commission, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Swiss National Science Foundation, the Medical Research Council, NordForsk, Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology.