Prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis and carotid plaque in Chinese adults: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

The association between hyperhomocysteinemia and the prevalence of bilateral carotid atherosclerotic plaques in a middle-aged population

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the impact of hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy) on the prevalence of CASP among middle-aged individuals, aiming to provide insights for CASP prevention.

METHODS

1105 subjects were categorized into HHcy group or normal tHcy group based on their plasma total homocysteine (tHcy). All participants underwent carotid artery ultrasonography to assess the presence of unilateral and bilateral CASP. Comparative analyses of demographic and clinical data were conducted between the two groups. Logistic regression and prespecified subgroup analyses were performed to determine whether HHcy independently contributed to bilateral CASP.

RESULTS

132 individuals exhibited bilateral CASP. The prevalence of bilateral CASP was significantly higher in the HHcy group compared to the normal tHcy group (21.55 % vs. 10.82 %, p = 0.003). Univariate logistic analysis showed a significant association between HHcy and the prevalence of bilateral CASP (OR = 2.056, 95 %CI 1.089-3.881, p = 0.026). In all four models of multivariate logistic analysis, HHcy consistently emerged as an independent risk factor for bilateral CASP, with odd ratios of 1.958, 2.047, 2.023, and 2.186. This association remained significant across all five subgroups stratified by age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, and BMI.

CONCLUSION

Our studies demonstrated HHcy was an independent risk factor for the prevalence of bilateral CASP in the middle-aged population. Theses results emphasized the importance of addressing HHcy in preventive strategies aimed at mitigating the burden of CASP among middle-aged individuals.

Mediation effect of gut microbiota on the relationship between physical activity and carotid plaque

Background

Physical activity has been shown to have an effect on Carotid plaque (CP) which is a predictor of Cardiovascular disease (CVD). Studies have shown that physical activity can alter the composition of gut microbiota, whether its influence on CP was mediated by gut microbiota has yet to be proved.

Methods

We conducted a case-control study involving 30 CP patients and 31 controls. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between CP and physical activity. LefSe was used to explore the association between gut microbiota and physical activity as well as CP, and PhyloMed was used to examine the mediating effect of gut microbiota in the association between physical activity and CP.

Results

After adjusting for potential confounders, adequate physical activity showed a significant association with a decreased risk of CP (ORadj: 0.25, 95%CI: 0.06, 0.97). CP was associated with enrichment in the order Bacteroidales within the phylum Bacteroidetes and the predominant microbiota in individuals without plaque was the order Clostridiales (LDA scores >3). Individuals with adequate physical activity had a higher abundance of the order Clostridiales, while the order Bacteroidetes was enriched in individuals with inadequate physical activity (LDA scores >3). The PhyloMed revealed a significant mediation effect of gut microbiota in the association between physical activity and CP (p = 0.03).

Conclusion

Adequate physical activity was significantly associated with a decreased risk of CP, and this association was mediated by an increase in the abundance of gut microbiota in the order Clostridiales.

Metabolic score and its components are associated with carotid plaque prevalence in young adults

PURPOSE

No study has comprehensively assessed the relationship of metabolic factors including insulin resistance, hypertension, hyperuricemia, and hypercholesterolemia with the development of carotid plaque. Therefore, we constructed metabolic scores based on the above metabolic factors and examined its association with carotid plaque in young and older Chinese adults.

METHODS

This study included 17,396 participants who underwent carotid ultrasound examinations, including 14,173 young adults (<65 years) and 3,223 older adults (≥65 years). Individual metabolic score was calculated using triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, mean arterial pressure (MAP), uric acid, and total cholesterol (TC). Logistic regression models were conducted to examine the role of metabolic score and its components in the prevalence of carotid plaque. The nonlinear relationship was examined using restricted cubic spline regression. Meanwhile, subgroup, interaction, and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that TyG (OR: 1.088; 95%CI: 1.046-1.132), MAP (OR: 1.121; 95%CI: 1.077-1.168), TC (OR: 1.137; 95%CI: 1.094-1.182) and metabolic score (OR: 1.064; 95%CI: 1.046-1.082) were associated with carotid plaque prevalence in young adults rather than older adults. The nonlinear association was not observed for metabolic scores and carotid plaque. Subgroup analyses showed significant associations between metabolic scores and carotid plaque prevalence in men, women, normal-weight, and overweight young adults. No interaction of metabolic score with sex and BMI were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The results support that control of TyG, MAP, TC, and metabolic scores is a key point in preventing the prevalence of carotid plaque in the young adults.

Epidemiological Characterisation of Chronic Diseases Among Civil Servants in Hebei Province, China: A Cross-Sectional Real-World Study of Approximately 50,000 Adults

Background

The objective of this investigation was to explore the health status and epidemiological features of civil servants working in Hebei Province, China.

Methods

Data was collected through a cross-sectional survey that involved 50,039 adult civil servants in Hebei Province. The research was conducted at the Hebei Provincial Medical Examination Centre and included inquiries about demographics, health behaviours, chronic illnesses, and abnormal check-up indicators. Statistical data were used to determine the prevalence of chronic diseases and abnormal health examination indicators. Subgroup analyses by sex were then conducted to calculate the similarities and differences in health status between men and women.

Results

The findings of the survey indicate that 14.2% of individuals who work in civil service suffer from obesity. Additionally, a considerable proportion of this group display poor health behaviours, including smoking and alcohol consumption. Hypertension (21.03%), dyslipidaemia (10.88%), and diabetes mellitus (8.56%) were identified as the top three chronic diseases, while cardiovascular diseases were prevalent at 6.27% among civil servants. Ultrasound showed a high prevalence of fatty liver, non-smooth gallbladder and liver cysts (44.61%, 33.24% and 23.26% respectively). The occurrence of pulmonary nodules was alarmingly high at 88.48%, while thyroid nodules were found in as much as 62.65% of patients. Abnormal E/A values≤1, prostate hyperplasia, breast nodules, and carotid plaques were also prevalent, with percentages ranging from 46.76% to 63.04%. In subgroup analyses by gender, the prevalence of chronic diseases and abnormal screening indicators was consistently higher in men than in women, with the exception of thyroid nodules and thyroid surgery.

Conclusion

The survey revealed a large proportion of civil servants in Hebei Province, China, suffering from chronic diseases, underscoring the necessity for enhanced attention to chronic disease prevention and management in this group and emphasising the requirement for focused interventions aimed at improving health outcomes.

The ratio of systolic and diastolic pressure is associated with carotid and femoral atherosclerosis

Background

Although the impact of hypertension on carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaques has been well established, its association with femoral IMT and plaques has not been extensively examined. In addition, the role of the ratio of systolic and diastolic pressure (SDR) in the subclinical atherosclerosis (AS) risk remains unknown. We assessed the relationship between SDR and carotid and femoral AS in a general population.

Methods

A total of 7,263 participants aged 35-74 years enrolled from January 2019 to June 2021 in a southeast region of China were included in a cross-sectional study. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) were used to define SDR. Ultrasonography was applied to assess the AS, including thickened IMT (TIMT) and plaque in the carotid and femoral arteries. Logistic regression and restricted cubic spline (RCS) models were the main approaches.

Results

The prevalence of TIMT, plaque, and AS were 17.3%, 12.4%, and 22.7% in the carotid artery; 15.2%, 10.7%, and 19.5% in the femoral artery; and 23.8%, 17.9% and 30.0% in either the carotid or femoral artery, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis found a significant positive association between high-tertile SDR and the higher risk of overall TIMT (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.10-1.49), plaques (OR = 1.36, 95%CI = 1.16-1.61), or AS (OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.17-1.57), especially in the carotid artery. RCS analysis further revealed the observed positive associations were linear. Further analyses showed that as compared to the low-tertile SDR and non-hypertension group, high-tertile SDR was associated with increased risks of overall and carotid TIMT, plaques, or AS in both groups with or without hypertension.

Conclusions

SDR is related to a higher risk of subclinical AS, regardless of hypertension or not, suggesting that as a readily obtainable index, SDR can contribute to providing additional predictive value for AS.

National and Provincial-Level Prevalence and Risk Factors of Carotid Atherosclerosis in Chinese Adults

Importance

Epidemiologic studies on carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) based on nationwide ultrasonography measurements can contribute to understanding the future risk of cardiovascular diseases and identifying high-risk populations, thereby proposing more targeted prevention and treatment measures.

Objectives

To estimate the prevalence of CAS within the general population of China and to investigate its distribution among populations with potential risk factors and variation across diverse geographic regions.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This multicenter, population-based cross-sectional study used China's largest health check-up chain database to study 10 733 975 individuals aged 20 years or older from all 31 provinces in China who underwent check-ups from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Carotid atherosclerosis was assessed and graded using ultrasonography as increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaque (CP), and carotid stenosis (CS). The overall and stratified prevalences were estimated among the general population and various subpopulations based on demographic characteristics, geographic regions, and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Mixed-effects regression models were used to analyze the risk factors for CAS.

Results

Among 10 733 975 Chinese participants (mean [SD] age, 47.7 [13.4] years; 5 861 566 [54.6%] male), the estimated prevalences were 26.2% (95% CI, 25.0%-27.4%) for increased cIMT, 21.0% (95% CI, 19.8%-22.2%) for CP, and 0.56% (95% CI, 0.36%-0.76%) for CS. The prevalence of all CAS grades was higher among older adults (eg, increased cIMT: aged ≥80 years, 92.7%; 95% CI, 92.2%-93.3%), male participants (29.6%; 95% CI, 28.4%-30.7%), those residing in northern China (31.0%; 95% CI, 29.1%-32.9%), and those who had comorbid conditions, such as hypertension (50.8%; 95% CI, 49.7%-51.9%), diabetes (59.0%; 95% CI, 57.8%-60.1%), dyslipidemia (32.1%; 95% CI, 30.8%-33.3%), and metabolic syndrome (31.0%; 95% CI, 29.1%-32.9%). Most cardiovascular disease risk factors were independent risk factors for all CAS stages (eg, hypertension: 1.60 [95% CI, 1.60-1.61] for increased cIMT, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.62-1.63] for CP, and 1.48 [95% CI, 1.45-1.51] for CS). Moreover, the magnitude of the association between several cardiovascular disease risk factors and increased cIMT and CP differed between the sexes and geographic regions.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that nearly one-quarter of Chinese adults have increased cIMT or CP. The burden of this disease is unevenly distributed across geographic regions and subpopulations and may require different levels of local planning, support, and management. Addressing these disparities is crucial for effectively preventing and managing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in China.

Association of carotid atherosclerotic plaque and intima-media thickness with the monocyte to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio among low-income residents of rural China: a population-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The monocytes to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (MHR) has been identified as a potential biomarker for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. In this population-based cross-sectional study, we explored the relationships among carotid artery disease (CAD), including the presence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT), the MHR, and related parameter changes.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study, Conducted from April to June 2019 in a rural area of Tianjin, involved middle-aged and elderly participants. Based on carotid ultrasound examinations, participants were divided into CAP and non-CAP groups. Logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were utilized to assess MHR's predictive value for CAP. Gender-specific analyses were also performed to examine predictive variations. The relationship between CIMT and MHR was evaluated using linear regression.

RESULTS

Of the 2109 participants meeting the inclusion criteria, 51.6% were identified with CAP. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant association between MHR and CAP prevalence, (OR, 9.670; 95% CI, 2.359-39.631; P = 0.002), particularly in females (OR, 5.921; 95% CI, 1.823-19.231; P = 0.003), after adjusting for covariates. However, no significant correlation was found between CIMT and MHR when adjusted for other factors. The ROC analysis showed the area under the curve for MHR and CAP to be 0.569 (95% CI: 0.544-0.593; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggested that it is crucial to enhance early screening and intervention for CAD, specifically focusing on the prevention and progression of CAP, to address the unique health challenges faced by low-income groups in rural settings. Emphasizing these preventive measures could significantly contribute to improving cardiovascular health outcomes in this vulnerable population.

Association between whole-grain consumption and carotid atherosclerosis: the Tianjin chronic low-grade systemic inflammation and health (TCLSIH) cohort study

Background: Whole-grain contains a range of beneficial nutrients, which are thought to play a role in the prevention of chronic diseases. However, the association between whole-grain consumption and the risk of developing carotid atherosclerosis (CA) has not been sufficiently elucidated. We, therefore, conducted this study to investigate the relationship between whole-grain consumption and CA in the general adult population. Methods: This prospective cohort study included a total of 2166 participants (19.2-84.6 years, 55.0% men) without a history of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and CA at baseline. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to assess whole-grain consumption. Measurements of CA include carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and carotid plaque. IMT thickening is defined as: IMT ≥ 1.0 mm or a carotid bifurcation IMT ≥ 1.2 mm. Carotid plaque is defined as: distinct area protruding ≥1.5 mm into the vascular lumen of the carotid artery. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of whole-grain consumption with incident CA. Results: A total of 538 (341 men) first incident cases of CA occurred during 5585 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up: 4.2 years). After adjusting for demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, dietary intake, individual and family history of disease, the multivariable HRs (95% CIs) for incident CA were 1.00 (reference) for <1 time per week, 1.10 (0.85, 1.43) for 1 time per week, 0.95 (0.75, 1.20) for 2-6 times per week, and 1.12 (0.80, 1.56) for ≥1 times per day, respectively (P for trend = 0.99). Similar results were observed in stratified analyses by the main covariates and sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Our data indicate that whole-grain consumption had no significant association with the risk of CA in an adult Chinese population. In our study population, there is a low consumption of whole-grain, which may limit our ability to see an association. Further cohort studies or randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm our results.

Comparative efficacy of Chinese patent medicines in patients with carotid atherosclerotic plaque: a Bayesian network meta- analysis

BACKGROUND

Traditional Chinese patent medicines (TCPMs) have been widely used to treat carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP) in China. However, systematic evaluation of the clinical efficacy of TCPMs for CAP is still unknown, and the comparative efficacy of different TCPMs is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to compare and rank the effectiveness and safety of different TCPMs in treating CAP using a Bayesian network meta- analysis (NMA).

METHODS

This NMA was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta- Analyses (PRISMA) Extension Statement. Eight databases were searched from their inception to August 2023 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The articles regarding eligibility and extracted data were screened independently by two authors. The Cochrane Risk of Bias tool was used to evaluate quality and bias. The change of carotid artery intimal- medial thickness (IMT), carotid maximal plaque area, carotid atherosclerotic plaque Course score, serum lipid levels, CRP, and adverse events rate (AER) were used as outcomes. Data from each RCTs were first pooled using random- effect pairwise meta- analyses and illustrated as odds ratios (ORs) or standardized mean differences (SMDs) with 95% confidence interval (CI). NMAs were performed using Stata17.0 software and the GeMTC package of R software to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of TCPMs, and displayed as ORs or SMDs with 95% CI. A Bayesian hierarchical random- effects model was used to conduct NMAs using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The GRADE partially contextualised framework was applied for NMA result interpretation.

RESULTS

NMA included 27 RCT trials with 4131 patients and nine types of TCPMs. Pairwise meta- analyses indicated that Conventional Western medicine (CWM) + TCPM was superior to CWM in reducing the IMT (SMD: - 1.26; 95% CI - 1.59 to - 0.93), the carotid maximal plaque area (SMD - 1.27; 95% CI - 1.71, - 0.82) and the carotid atherosclerotic plaque Course score (SMD - 0.72; 95% CI 95% CI - 1.20, - 0.25). NMAs demonstrated that CWM + Jiangzhiling pill (JZL) with SUCRA 70.6% exhibited the highest effective intervention for reducing IMT. CWM + SXBX (Shexiang baoxin pill) was superior to other TCPMs in reducing the carotid maximal plaque area (83.0%), the atherosclerotic plaque Course score (92.5%), TC (95.6%) and LDL (92.6%) levels. CWM + NXT (Naoxintong capsule), CWM + XS (Xiaoshuang granules/enteric capsule), and CWM + ZBT (Zhibitai) were superior to other CPMs in improving TG (90.1%), HDL (86.1%), and CRP (92.6%), respectively. No serious adverse events were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

For CAP patients, CWM + XSBX was among the most effective in reducing carotid maximal plaque area, atherosclerotic plaque Course score, TC and LDL levels, and CWM + JZL was the most effective in reducing IMT. Overall, CWM + XSBX may be considered an effective intervention for the treatment of CAP. This study provides reference and evidence for the clinical optimization of TCPM selection in CAP treatment. More adequately powered, well- designed clinical trials to increase the quality of the available evidence are still needed in the future due to several limitations.

Utilizing machine learning algorithms for the prediction of carotid artery plaques in a Chinese population

Background: Ischemic stroke is a significant global health issue, imposing substantial social and economic burdens. Carotid artery plaques (CAP) serve as an important risk factor for stroke, and early screening can effectively reduce stroke incidence. However, China lacks nationwide data on carotid artery plaques. Machine learning (ML) can offer an economically efficient screening method. This study aimed to develop ML models using routine health examinations and blood markers to predict the occurrence of carotid artery plaques. Methods: This study included data from 5,211 participants aged 18-70, encompassing health check-ups and biochemical indicators. Among them, 1,164 participants were diagnosed with carotid artery plaques through carotid ultrasound. We constructed six ML models by employing feature selection with elastic net regression, selecting 13 indicators. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), F1 score, kappa value, and Area Under the Curve (AUC) value. Feature importance was assessed by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) loss after permutations for each variable in every model. Results: Among all six ML models, LightGBM achieved the highest accuracy at 91.8%. Feature importance analysis revealed that age, Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-c), and systolic blood pressure were important predictive factors in the models. Conclusion: LightGBM can effectively predict the occurrence of carotid artery plaques using demographic information, physical examination data and biochemistry data.

Prevalence and influencing factors of abnormal carotid artery intima-media thickness in Henan Province in China

Background

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) has been shown to be a valuable predictor of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The aim of this study was to investigate the influencing factors of CIMT among adults in Central China.

Methods

A total of 2,578 participants who underwent physical examination in Henan Provincial People's Hospital between January 2018 and July 2018 were enrolled. The respondents were divided into two subgroups according to their CIMT value (CIMT ≥1.0 mm group and CIMT <1.0 mm group). Variables considered were age, gender, total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) triglycerides, fasting blood glucose, and uric acid levels, as well as hypertension, diabetes, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, body fat percentage, and visceral fat area (VFA). Logistic regression analysis was performed to explore the potential factors influencing CIMT.

Results

The proportion of CIMT ≥1.0 mm among the physical examination population was 27.42% (707/2 578). The analysis of the two groups revealed significant differences in age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol. In the logistic regression analysis, age (OR=1.071, 95%CI=1.062-1.080), male sex (OR=2.012, 95%CI=1.251-2.238), hypertension (OR=1.337, 95%CI=1.031-1.735), diabetes (OR=1.535, 95%CI=1.045-2.255), HDL cholesterol (OR=0.540, 95%CI=0.366-0.796), and LDL cholesterol (OR=1.336, 95%CI=1.154-1.544) were significantly associated with abnormal CIMT.

Conclusion

Early screening should be carried out among men, the older adults, and those with hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia.

Higher expression of PLEK and LY86 as the potential biomarker of carotid atherosclerosis

Carotid atherosclerosis (AS) occurs in atherosclerotic lesions of the carotid artery, which can lead to transient ischemic attack and stroke in severe cases. However, the relationship between pleckstrin (PLEK) and lymphocyte antigen 86 (LY86) and carotid AS remains unclear. The carotid AS datasets GSE43292 and GSE125771 were downloaded from the gene expression omnibus database. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were screened and weighted gene co-expression network analysis was performed. Construction and analysis of protein-protein interaction network. Functional enrichment analysis, gene set enrichment analysis and comparative toxicogenomics database analysis were performed. TargetScan screened miRNAs that regulated central DEGs. A total of 305 DEGs were identified. According to gene ontology analysis, they were mainly enriched in immune system processes, extracellular regions and cytokine binding. Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes analysis showed that the target cells were mainly enriched in Rap1 signal pathway, B cell receptor signal pathway and PPAR signal pathway. In the enrichment project of metascape, the reaction to bacteria, cell activation and chemotaxis can be seen in the enrichment project of gene ontology. Total 10 core genes (TYROBP, FCER1G, PLEK, LY86, IL10RA, ITGB2, LCP2, FCGR2B, CD86, CCR1) were obtained by protein-protein interaction network construction and analysis. Core genes (PLEK, LY86, IL10RA, ITGB2, and LCP2) were highly expressed in carotid AS samples and lowly expressed in normal samples. Comparative toxicogenomics database analysis showed that 5 genes were associated with pneumonia, inflammation, necrosis, and drug allergy. PLEK and LY86 genes are highly expressed in carotid AS. The higher the expression of PLEK and LY86, the worse the prognosis is.

Association of cervical atherosclerosis on Doppler ultrasonography and postoperative delirium in patients undergoing spinal surgery: a single-center, retrospective, observational study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to evaluate the association between cervical atherosclerosis on Doppler ultrasonography and postoperative delirium (POD) in patients undergoing spinal surgery.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study using prospectively collected data, 295 consecutive patients aged > 50 years underwent spine surgery at a single institution between March 2015 and February 2021. Cervical atherosclerosis was defined as the intima-media thickness (IMT) of the common carotid artery (CCA) being ≥ 1.1 mm on pulsed-wave Doppler ultrasonography. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed with the prevalence of postoperative delirium as a dependent variable. Age, sex, body mass index, medical history, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS), CHADS2 score (an assessment score for stroke), instrumentation, duration of surgery, blood loss, and cervical arteriosclerosis were the independent variables.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven patients of 295 (9.2%) developed delirium postoperatively. Forty-one (13.9%) of the 295 patients had cervical atherosclerosis. Their univariate analyses showed that age (P = 0.001), hypertension (P = 0.016), cancer (P = 0.046), antiplatelet agent use (P < 0.001), ASA-PS ≥ 3 (P < 0.001), CHADS2 score (P < 0.001), cervical atherosclerosis (P = 0.008), and right CCA-IMT (P = 0.007) were significantly associated with POD. However, multivariate logistic regression analyses showed older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.109; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.035-1.188; P = 0.03) and antiplatelet agent use (OR, 3.472; 95% CI 1.221-9.870; P = 0.020) to be significantly associated with POD.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a significant association between POD and the prevalence of cervical atherosclerosis using the univariate logistic regression analysis. Furthermore, multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that older age and antiplatelet agent use were independently associated with POD.

Combinatorial Use of Machine Learning and Logistic Regression for Predicting Carotid Plaque Risk Among 5.4 Million Adults With Fatty Liver Disease Receiving Health Check-Ups: Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Carotid plaque can progress into stroke, myocardial infarction, etc, which are major global causes of death. Evidence shows a significant increase in carotid plaque incidence among patients with fatty liver disease. However, unlike the high detection rate of fatty liver disease, screening for carotid plaque in the asymptomatic population is not yet prevalent due to cost-effectiveness reasons, resulting in a large number of patients with undetected carotid plaques, especially among those with fatty liver disease.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to combine the advantages of machine learning (ML) and logistic regression to develop a straightforward prediction model among the population with fatty liver disease to identify individuals at risk of carotid plaque.

METHODS

Our study included 5,420,640 participants with fatty liver from Meinian Health Care Center. We used random forest, elastic net (EN), and extreme gradient boosting ML algorithms to select important features from potential predictors. Features acknowledged by all 3 models were enrolled in logistic regression analysis to develop a carotid plaque prediction model. Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, Brier score, and decision curve analysis both in a randomly split internal validation data set, and an external validation data set comprising 32,682 participants from MJ Health Check-up Center. Risk cutoff points for carotid plaque were determined based on the Youden index, predicted probability distribution, and prevalence rate of the internal validation data set to classify participants into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups. This risk classification was further validated in the external validation data set.

RESULTS

Among the participants, 26.23% (1,421,970/5,420,640) were diagnosed with carotid plaque in the development data set, and 21.64% (7074/32,682) were diagnosed in the external validation data set. A total of 6 features, including age, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, and hepatic steatosis index (HSI) were collectively selected by all 3 ML models out of 27 predictors. After eliminating the issue of collinearity between features, the logistic regression model established with the 5 independent predictors reached an area under the curve of 0.831 in the internal validation data set and 0.801 in the external validation data set, and showed good calibration capability graphically. Its predictive performance was comprehensively competitive compared with the single use of either logistic regression or ML algorithms. Optimal predicted probability cutoff points of 25% and 65% were determined for classifying individuals into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories for carotid plaque.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of ML and logistic regression yielded a practical carotid plaque prediction model, and was of great public health implications in the early identification and risk assessment of carotid plaque among individuals with fatty liver.

Triglyceride-Glucose Index is Related to Carotid Artery Plaque in Railway Workers: A Cross-Sectional Study

Aim

China has the highest rail transportation density in the world. Compared to other occupational populations, railway workers in China face increased risk of chronic non-communicable diseases. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and carotid artery plaque (CAP) in a population of railway workers in southwest China.

Methods

The cross-sectional study was conducted among 3169 railway workers who were categorized into four groups based on TyG index quartiles. The presence of CAP was assessed using carotid Doppler ultrasound. Logistic regression and restricted cubic spline analyses were used to estimate the association between TyG index and CAP, and subgroup analyses were performed based on age, blood pressure, metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), smoking, drinking, and physical activity.

Results

Participants with higher TyG index quartiles had a higher prevalence of CAP, with 11.63%, 14.11%, 20.20%, and 18.56% from the first to fourth quartile, respectively. The multi-adjusted logistic regression models showed a positive association between TyG index and the risk of CAP (odds ratio [OR]: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.41) when treated as a continuous variable. When analyzed as a categorical variable with increasing TyG index tertiles, the risk of CAP substantially increased with ORs (95% CIs) of 1.22 (0.90-1.65) for the second quartile, 1.70 (1.27-2.28) for the third quartile, and 1.46 (1.08-1.98) for the fourth quartile compared to the lowest quartile. Restricted cubic spline revealed that the association gradually strengthened with the increase of the TyG index below 9.56.

Conclusion

TyG index was significantly associated with CAP, notably in populations with elevated quartiles of TyG index among railway workers. Monitoring the TyG index could be a useful risk management strategy for CAP in occupation population.

The prevalence of vitamin A deficiency and its public health significance in children in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and modelling analysis

Background

Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is widely recognised as a major public health concern in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite various interventions implemented in many countries, a lack of reliable data is hindering progress. We aimed to consolidate available data and quantify estimates of the prevalence of VAD among children ≤18 years in LMICs.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Medline and Embase for studies reported the prevalence of VAD or marginal (m)VAD among children. A multilevel mixed-effects meta-regression approach was applied to establish the regression models for VAD and mVAD prevalence. The total numbers of children affected by VAD and mVAD in LMICs in 2019 were separately calculated from the estimated age- and socio-demographic index (SDI)-specific prevalence with their corresponding United Nations Population Division populations projections. We estimated areas of significant public health concern in 165 LMICs using the lower confidence interval (CI) of VAD prevalence.

Results

A total of 116 articles from 40 LMICs were retained. In 2019, VAD and mVAD affected 333.95 million (95% CI = 253.00-433.74) and 556.13 million (95% CI = 388.83-767.94) children and adolescents in 165 LMICs, respectively, corresponding to a prevalence of 14.73% (95% CI = 11.16-19.14) and 24.54% (95% CI = 17.15-33.88). The prevalence of both VAD and mVAD was the highest in children aged 0-5 years at 19.53% (95% CI = 15.03-24.91) and 28.22% (95% CI = 20.00-38.24), respectively, with both steadily decreasing to 10.09% (95% CI = 7.44-13.50) and 20.76% (95% CI = 14.16-29.50) in adolescents aged 13-18 years. The prevalence of VAD was significantly higher in the low SDI region at 29.67% (95% CI = 22.67-37.53) compared to 5.17% (95% CI = 3.14-8.43) estimated in the high-middle SDI region. 68 of the 165 LMICs (41.21%) were classified as areas of moderate to severe VAD public health significance.

Conclusions

VAD continues to pose a significant public health concern in many low-income settings. Development in LMICs is a crucial factor for VAD, with a disproportionately higher burden in low SDI regions.

Registration

This study protocol was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020220654.

Association between triglyceride-glucose index trajectories and carotid atherosclerosis progression

BACKGROUND

The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index has been recognized as being an alternative cardiometabolic biomarker for insulin resistance associated with the development and prognosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the prospective relationship between baseline and long-term trajectories of the TyG index and carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) progression has yet to be investigated.

METHODS

This longitudinal prospective cohort study included 10,380 adults with multiple general health checks at Peking University Third Hospital from January 2011 to December 2020. The TyG index was calculated as ln (fasting triglyceride [mg/dL] × fasting glucose [mg/dL]/2). The latent class trajectory modeling method was used to analyze the TyG index trajectories over the follow-up. Based on univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the baseline and trajectory of the TyG index.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 757 days, 1813 participants developed CAS progression. Each 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in the TyG index was associated with a 7% higher risk of CAS progression after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors (HR = 1.067, 95% CI 1.006-1.132). Similar results were observed when the TyG index was expressed as quartiles. According to different trajectory patterns, participants were categorized into low-stable, moderate-stable, and high-increasing groups. After multivariate adjustment, the moderate-stable group had a 1.139-fold (95% CI 1.021-1.272) risk of CAS progression. The high-increasing trajectory of the TyG index tended to be associated with CAS progression (HR = 1.206, 95% CI 0.961-1.513).

CONCLUSIONS

Participants with higher baseline and moderate-stable trajectory of the TyG index were associated with CAS progression. Long-term trajectories of the TyG index can help to identify individuals at a higher risk of CAS progression who deserve specific preventive and therapeutic approaches.

Development and validation of explainable machine-learning models for carotid atherosclerosis early screening

BACKGROUND

Carotid atherosclerosis (CAS), an important factor in the development of stroke, is a major public health concern. The aim of this study was to establish and validate machine learning (ML) models for early screening of CAS using routine health check-up indicators in northeast China.

METHODS

A total of 69,601 health check-up records from the health examination center of the First Hospital of China Medical University (Shenyang, China) were collected between 2018 and 2019. For the 2019 records, 80% were assigned to the training set and 20% to the testing set. The 2018 records were used as the external validation dataset. Ten ML algorithms, including decision tree (DT), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), multiplayer perceptron (MLP), extreme gradient boosting machine (XGB), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), linear support vector machine (SVM-linear), and non-linear support vector machine (SVM-nonlinear), were used to construct CAS screening models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) and precision-recall curve (auPR) were used as measures of model performance. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was used to demonstrate the interpretability of the optimal model.

RESULTS

A total of 6315 records of patients undergoing carotid ultrasonography were collected; of these, 1632, 407, and 1141 patients were diagnosed with CAS in the training, internal validation, and external validation datasets, respectively. The GBDT model achieved the highest performance metrics with auROC of 0.860 (95% CI 0.839-0.880) in the internal validation dataset and 0.851 (95% CI 0.837-0.863) in the external validation dataset. Individuals with diabetes or those over 65 years of age showed low negative predictive value. In the interpretability analysis, age was the most important factor influencing the performance of the GBDT model, followed by sex and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

The ML models developed could provide good performance for CAS identification using routine health check-up indicators and could hopefully be applied in scenarios without ethnic and geographic heterogeneity for CAS prevention.

Disparities in the Prevalence and Risk Factors for Carotid and Lower Extremities Atherosclerosis in a General Population—Bialystok PLUS Study

This study was conducted in a representative sample of area residents aged 20–80 years old. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of classic risk factors of atherosclerosis in the studied population and to search for new risk factors in these patient subpopulations. A total of 795 people (mean age 48.64 ± 15.24 years, 45.5% male) were included in the study group. Two independent data analyses were performed. In the first analysis, the study group was divided into two subgroups depending on the presence or absence of atherosclerotic plaques in carotid arteries (APCA). APCA were observed in 49.7% of the study group: in the population aged between 41 and 60 years in 49.3%, and those between 61 and 70 years in 86.3%. Patients with APCA were more often diagnosed with arterial hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. In the second analysis, the study group was divided into two subgroups depending on the presence of lower extremities atherosclerotic disease (LEAD). Patients with an ABI (ankle-brachial index) ≤ 0.9 constituted 8.5% of the study group, and they were significantly older, and more often diagnosed with diabetes and APCA. To identify the factors most strongly associated with APCA and an ABI ≤ 0.9, logistic regression was used, with stepwise elimination of variables. The strongest factors associated with APCA were current smoking and diastolic central pressure. We did not note such an association and did not find additional parameters to facilitate the diagnosis of LEAD in asymptomatic patients. The most important observation in our study was the high prevalence of APCA in the study population, especially in the group of young people under the age of 60.

Combined effects of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes mellitus on the presence and severity of carotid atherosclerosis in community-dwelling elders: A community-based study

BACKGROUND

Hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes mellitus (DM) are common cardiovascular disease (CVD) comorbidities and well-known major determinants of atherosclerosis. However, their combined effects and relative contributions have not been well explored. This study aimed to characterize the characteristics of carotid atherosclerosis and dissect the relative effects of these common CVD comorbidities on the presence and severity of carotid atherosclerosis in community-dwelling elderly individuals.

METHODS

We enrolled 817 elders from communities in northern Taiwan. We evaluated their cardiovascular risk profiles and scanned their extracranial carotid arteries using high-resolution ultrasonography systems.

RESULTS

The prevalence rates for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and DM were 45.4%, 37.1%, and 16.8%, respectively. Sixty-two (7.6%) and 188 (23.0%) elderly had all three and two of these common CVD comorbidities, respectively. The prevalent rates of carotid plaque and moderate-to-severe atherosclerosis were 62.9% and 35.5%, respectively. The percentages of one or more common CVD comorbidities in elders with carotid plaque and moderate-to-severe atherosclerosis were 78.2% and 83.1%, respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that the number of common CVD comorbidities was the most predictive determinant. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) per comorbidity for the presence of carotid plaque and advanced carotid atherosclerosis were 1.52 (95% CI, 1.28-1.81) and 1.57 (95% CI, 1.28-1.93), respectively. Models containing hypertension and DM were the second most predictive. Combinatory analyses showed distinct relationship patterns between carotid atherosclerosis and hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and DM. Hypertension was significantly correlated with higher ORs for the presence of carotid plaque and advanced carotid atherosclerosis but not for hyperlipidemia.

CONCLUSION

Carotid plaques are highly prevalent in community-dwelling elders. The number of common CVD comorbidities was the most predictive determinant of carotid plaques and advanced carotid atherosclerosis. Our results indicate that to reduce the impact of atherosclerotic diseases, blood pressure controls precede the control of blood lipids and glucose in the community-dwelling elders.

Joint effects of carotid plaques and renal impairment on the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause death in a community-based population: The Kailuan cohort study

OBJECTIVE

It is unknown whether renal impairment and atherosclerosis increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death. Atherosclerosis already raises the risk of CVD and all-cause death. This study investigated the joint effects of carotid plaques and renal impairment on CVD and all-cause death in community-based populations.

METHODS

The study cohort consisted of 20,416 participants from the Kailuan Study who completed a carotid plaque ultrasound in 2012. A glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of < 60 ml/min or trace semiquantitative proteinuria or higher were both considered signs of renal insufficiency. We divided them into four groups according to the presence of carotid plaque and renal impairment. These groups were categorized as no carotid plaque, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 60 ml/min, and proteinuria < trace; no carotid plaque, eGFR < 60 ml/min, and proteinuria ≥ trace; carotid plaque, eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min and proteinuria < trace; and carotid plaque, eGFR < 60 ml/min, and proteinuria ≥ trace, respectively. We investigated the combined effect of renal impairment and carotid plaque on cardiovascular events and all-cause death in the Kailuan community-based population.

RESULT

Participants with carotid plaque, eGFR < 60 ml/min and proteinuria had a 2.88-fold higher risk of all-cause death (95% CI, 2.18-3.80), which was significantly higher than those with lone factors (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.04-2.36; and HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.56-2.32), compared to participants with no carotid plaque, eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min and proteinuria

CONCLUSION

The joint of carotid plaques and renal impairment may further increase the risk of CVD and all-cause death compared with participants with alone factors in the age of ≥ 50 years, but not in the age of < 50 years, from a community-based study.

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Key Words

• all-cause death
• cardiovascular disease
• carotid plaque
• community-based populations
• estimated glomerular filtration rate

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Affiliation(s)

Wen Li Department of Ultrasound in Medicine, Shanghai Sixth People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
Wenkun Bai Department of Ultrasound in Medicine, Shanghai Sixth People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
Congliang Miao Department of Internal and Emergency Medicine, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
Shuohua Chen Department of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital Affiliated to North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, China
Xinyu Zhang Department of Ultrasound in Medicine, Shanghai Sixth People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
Yanfeng Fan Department of Ultrasound in Medicine, Shanghai Sixth People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
Xiao Li Department of Ultrasound in Medicine, Shanghai Sixth People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
Shouling Wu Department of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital Affiliated to North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, China
Xuemei Liu Department of Ultrasound in Medicine, Beijing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
Jiang Hong Department of Internal and Emergency Medicine, Shanghai General Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China

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Association between the triglyceride-glucose index and carotid plaque incidence: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Carotid plaque and triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index are associated with insulin resistance. However, a highly debated question is whether there is an association between the TyG index and carotid plaque incidence. Thus we performed an in-depth longitudinal study to investigate the relationship between carotid plaque occurrence and the TyG index among Chinese individuals.

METHODS

Two thousand and three hundred seventy subjects (1381 males and 989 females) were enrolled and followed up for three years. The subjects were stratified into four groups based on the quartile of the TyG index at baseline. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to examine the role of TyG played in the carotid plaque. The strength of association was expressed as hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

After three years of follow-up, 444 subjects were detected with newly formed carotid plaque. The overall 3-year cumulative carotid plaque incidence was 18.7%, and the risk of carotid plaque increased with elevated TyG index (p < 0.001). The Cox regression analysis showed that males (HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.10-1.61), and people with higher systolic blood pressure (HR:1.01, 95% CI: 1.01-1.02), lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.50-0.93), diabetes (HR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.64-2.97), and hypertension (HR:1.49, 95% CI: 1.23-1.81) had a significantly increased risk for the carotid plaque formation. Similar results remained in the sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The TyG index can be used as a dose-responsive indicator of carotid plaque in the Chinese population. Elderly males with dyslipidemia, diabetes, or hypertension should be more vigilant about their TyG index since they are susceptible to developing carotid plaque. Physicians are encouraged to monitor the TyG index to help identify and treat patients with carotid plaque at an early stage.

Association between obese phenotypes and risk of carotid artery plaque among chinese male railway drivers

BACKGROUND

China has the world's highest rail transportation network density, and the prevalence of obesity among railway workers in China is more than twice that of adults in the world. Carotid artery plaque (CAP) is a simple and noninvasive predictor of early atherosclerosis, while the association between different obese phenotypes and CAP risk among Chinese male railway drivers is unclear.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was performed among 8,645 Chinese male railway drivers. Obese phenotypes were assessed based on the obesity status (the body mass index ≥ 28 kg/m² as obesity vs. < 28 kg/m² as non-obesity) and metabolic status (metabolically healthy vs. metabolically unhealthy). Metabolically unhealthy was defined as the presence of at least one dysfunction, including elevated blood pressure, elevated fasting blood glucose, elevated triglyceride, and reduced high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol. Four obese phenotypes were defined based on the body mass index and metabolic status, i.e., metabolically healthy non-obesity (MHNO), metabolically healthy obesity (MHO), metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO), and metabolically unhealthy non-obesity (MUNO). Multivariable logistic regression was employed to estimate the association between different obese phenotypes and the risk of CAP. Subgroup analysis was performed to examine the variation of the association by age, circadian rhythm disorders, and history of smoking and drinking.

RESULTS

The prevalence of CAP among male railway drivers in MHO, MUO, MUNO, and MHNO was 8.75%, 18.67%, 17.82%, and 5.36%, respectively. Compared to those with MHNO, an increased risk for CAP was observed among those with MHO (OR = 2.18, 95% CI: 0.82, 5.10), MUO (OR = 1.78, 95% CI:1.44, 2.21), and MUNO (OR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.67, 2.89). The subgroup analysis showed that both of the metabolically unhealthy groups (MUNO and MUO) aged < 45 years were prone to a higher risk of CAP (for the MUNO group, OR = 4.27, 95% CI:2.71, 7.10; for the MUO group, OR = 4.00, 95%CI: 2.26, 7.17).

CONCLUSION

The obese phenotypes are associated with CAP risk in male railway drivers, especially those with metabolically unhealthy conditions aged < 45 years.

Development and validation of a carotid atherosclerosis risk prediction model based on a Chinese population

Purpose

This study aimed to identify independent risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) and construct and validate a CAS risk prediction model based on the Chinese population.

Methods

This retrospective study included 4,570 Chinese adults who underwent health checkups (including carotid ultrasound) at the Zhenhai Lianhua Hospital, Ningbo, China, in 2020. All the participants were randomly assigned to the training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Independent risk factors associated with CAS were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator combined with 10-fold cross-validation were screened for characteristic variables, and nomograms were plotted to demonstrate the risk prediction model. C-index and receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the risk model’s discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability.

Results

Age, body mass index, diastolic blood pressure, white blood cell count, mean platelet volume, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, and gamma-glutamyl transferase were identified as independent risk factors for CAS. In the training, internal validation, and external validation sets, the risk model showed good discriminatory power with C-indices of 0.961 (0.953–0.969), 0.953 (0.939–0.967), and 0.930 (0.920–0.940), respectively, and excellent calibration. The results of DCA showed that the prediction model could be beneficial when the risk threshold probabilities were 1–100% in all sets. Finally, a network computer (dynamic nomogram) was developed to facilitate the physicians’ clinical operations. The website is https://nbuhgq.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/.

Conclusion

The development of risk models contributes to the early identification and prevention of CAS, which is important for preventing and reducing adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events.

Sex-Related Differences in the Incidence and Development of Carotid Plaques in a Low-Income Chinese Population-A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose

More than 150 million people are estimated to have been examined for the presence of carotid plaques (CPs) in China; a sex-related imbalance in the prevalence exists. However, the relationship between sex and the incidence of CP development is unclear, especially in low-income areas of China. Hence, this study aimed to identify the sex differences in CP development and CP burden in both sexes in this population.

Methods

The study population included individuals aged ≥45 years in a rural area of Tianjin, China. Carotid ultrasonography was performed in the 2014 and 2019 cohorts, and information on carotid ultrasonography, including the formation and number of CPs, was collected twice. Logistic analyses were used to investigate the predictors of CP formation and numbers of plaques.

Results

A total of 1479 participants were analyzed. The incidence of CP was 20.3% and 29.0% in women and men, respectively. In women, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels was independent predictors of CP formation (RR: 1.217, 95%CI: 1.010, 1.461; P=0.039). For men, the corresponding predictors were hypertension, alcohol consumption, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels (all P<0.05); none of the examined factors were associated with plaque numbers.

Conclusion

In the study population, men had a higher incidence of plaque than women. Predictors of CP are different in men and women. LDL-C control is critical for moderating atherosclerosis in women; in men, managing blood pressure, stopping alcohol consumption, and controlling HDL-C levels are important.

Association between hemoglobin A1c and asymptomatic carotid intima-media thickness in middle-aged and elderly populations without diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Carotid atherosclerosis, including carotid artery intima-media thickness, plaques, and stenosis, is an important risk factor for stroke. However, the association between hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) was inconsistent. The aim of this study was to explore the association between HbA1c and the risk of increased cIMT among the Chinese population aged ≥40 years without diabetes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 3528 participants without diabetes from the China National Stroke Screen Survey program were enrolled in this study. cIMT was measured using duplex ultrasound examination. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between HbA1c level and the risk of increased cIMT. A total of 565 (16.0%) participants had increased cIMT. After adjustment for other potential confounding factors, higher levels of HbA1c increased the risk of increased cIMT compared with the lowest level, and the odds ratios for quartile 2, quartile 3, and quartile 4 were 1.58, 1.67, and 1.98, respectively. Age had an interaction impact on the association between HbA1c level and the risk of increased cIMT.

CONCLUSION

In this large-scale and cross-sectional study, high-normal HbA1c was associated with the risk of increased asymptomatic cIMT in a rural Chinese population without diabetes, especially in individuals aged <60 years.

Effects of Gas Embolism On Pulsatile Flow Characteristics within a Human Carotid Artery

Gas embolisms can hinder and disturb standard blood flow patterns and lead to occlusions and ischemia. Atherosclerosis in carotid arteries depends mostly on hemodynamic parameters. To understand how gas embolism affects carotid artery hemodynamics, numerical simulation of coupled Newtonian two-phase laminar flow with interface tracking are performed in an anatomical image-based geometry with flow conditions closely approximating physiological flows. Bubble behavior and Pulsatile flow field changes are quantified. Significant deviation from flow without gas embolism is observed leading to non-standard flow distributions. Results show that gas embolism promotes complex spatio-temporal variations in the carotid artery hemodynamics leading to higher time averaged shear stress values and greater regions of high oscillatory shear index.

Irisin Suppresses Nicotine-Mediated Atherosclerosis by Attenuating Endothelial Cell Migration, Proliferation, Cell Cycle Arrest, and Cell Senescence

Atherosclerotic disease has become the major cause of death worldwide. Smoking, as a widespread independent risk factor, further strengthens the health burden of atherosclerosis. Irisin is a cytokine that increases after physical activity and shows an atheroprotective effect, while its specific mechanism in the process of atherosclerosis is little known. The reversal effect of irisin on intimal thickening induced by smoking-mediated atherosclerosis was identified in Apoe^–/– mice through the integrin αVβ5 receptor. Endothelial cells treated with nicotine and irisin were further subjected to RNA-seq for further illustrating the potential mechanism of irisin in atherosclerosis, as well as the wound healing assays, CCK-8 assays, β-gal staining and cell cycle determination to confirm phenotypic alterations. Endothelial differential expressed gene enrichment showed focal adhesion for migration and proliferation, as well as the P53 signaling pathway for cell senescence and cell cycle control. Irisin exerts antagonistic effects on nicotine-mediated migration and proliferation via the integrin αVβ5/PI3K pathway. In addition, irisin inhibits nicotine-mediated endothelial senescence and cell cycle arrest in G0/G1 phase via P53/P21 pathway. This study further illustrates the molecular mechanism of irisin in atherosclerosis and stresses its potential as an anti-atherosclerotic therapy.

Association between insulin resistance and incidence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque: A cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is limited evidence on the association between insulin resistance (IR) and carotid plaque was reported in prospective study. We aimed to exploit the relationship between IR and carotid plaque in a prospective cohort study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study was performed in a functional community cohort in urban Beijing. In 2015, a total of 7061 individuals without intima-media thickness (IMT) thickening and carotid artery plaque were recruited and followed up until 2019. Restricted cubic spline was conducted to exploit the dose-response relationship between carotid plaque and baseline HOMA-IR or TyG index as continuous variables. Logistic regression was used to analyze the associations between carotid plaque and HOMA-IR or TyG index. During the average 4 years follow-up, 589 subjects developed carotid plaque. Both HOMA-IR and TyG index showed significant linear dose-response relationship on carotid plaque (p < 0.001). The RRs (95%CI) for subjects with baseline HOMA-IR in quartile 2, quartile 3 and quartile 4 were 1.52 (1.14-2.04), 1.86 (1.40-2.46), and 2.55 (1.94-3.35) compared to quartile 1, respectively. Compared to the first quartile of TyG, the RRs (95%CI) for subjects in quartile 2, quartile 3 and quartile 4 were 1.43 (1.08-1.90), 1.59 (1.20-2.12), and 1.69 (1.26-2.25), respectively. In total population, the predictive ability of HOMA-IR for carotid plaque was significantly better than that of TyG index (p = 0.025).

CONCLUSION

IR is an independent risk factor of carotid plaque. Both HOMA-IR and TyG has significant predictive ability for carotid plaque.

Physical activity and carotid atherosclerosis risk reduction in population with high risk for cardiovascular diseases: a cross-sectional study

Background

Decreased physical activity had been reported to be a common causal and modifiable risk factor for major vascular events. However, the relationship of physical activity and sedentary leisure time with carotid atherosclerosis in population with high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is still inconclusive. We aimed to evaluate the association of physical activity and sedentary leisure time with the risk of carotid atherosclerosis, and investigate any possible effect modifiers in population with high risk for CVDs.

Methods

The study population was drawn from the China Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events (PEACE) Million Persons Project-Jiangsu project, which is a population-based screening project that included permanent residents aged 35-75 years from 6 surveillance cities in Jiangsu Province. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the association of physical activity and sedentary leisure time with carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT). The risks of abnormal carotid artery and carotid plaque (CP) were estimated by odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using logistic regression.

Results

Overall, a total of 10,920 participants were enrolled in the final analysis. There was a significant inverse association of physical activity level with CIMT (per SD increase: β=-0.0103; 95%CI: -0.0154, -0.0053). The risk of abnormal carotid artery and CP decreased significantly with the increase of physical activity level (per SD increase: OR=0.908, 95%CI: 0.869-0.948; OR=0.900, 95%CI: 0.857-0.945, respectively). When physical activity level was categorized as quartiles, a significantly lower risk of abnormal carotid artery and CP was found in quartiles 2-4 with quartile 1 as reference (P<0.05 for all). Furthermore, the inverse association were stronger in participants with age ≥60 years (vs. <60 years, P_interaction<0.001 for both). However, there were no significant association of sedentary leisure time with CIMT, abnormal carotid artery and CP.

Conclusions

In population with high risk for CVDs, physical activity was inversely associated with CIMT, abnormal carotid artery and CP, particularly among the elders. Sedentary leisure time was not associated with them. These results suggested that physical activity is important for carotid vascular health, and perhaps especially in elder population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-12582-6.

Association of Helicobacter pylori Infection With Carotid Atherosclerosis in a Northern Chinese Population: A Cross-Sectional Study

Numerous studies have shown that Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection may be involved in the development of carotid atherosclerosis (CAS), but this conclusion is still controversial. The aim of this study was to explore whether there is a positive association between HP infection and CAS occurrence. We collected data on demographic characteristics, lifestyle, and disease history of the participants by questionnaire. We obtained clinical anthropometric data and blood samples of the participants from clinical examinations and laboratory work. The 13C urea breath test (13C-UBT) was performed to assess the HP infection status, and carotid ultrasonography was used to diagnose the CAS and plaque types. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify the relationship between HP infection and CAS. A total of 1,424 participants were recruited for this study. A total of 740 HP-positive individuals and 684 HP-negative individuals were identified, and 345 participants were diagnosed with CAS. The prevalence of CAS was higher in the HP-positive group (26.4%) than in the HP-negative group (21.7%) (P &lt; 0.05). A significantly higher prevalence of carotid intima-media thickening, carotid plaque, and carotid stenosis was identified in the HP-positive group than in the HP-negative group (P &lt; 0.05). There was no significant difference in the detection rate of unstable plaques between the HP-positive and HP-negative groups (P &gt; 0.05). In multivariate models adjusted for covariates, HP infection showed a positive association with CAS, independent of other risk factors (ORs range: 1.283–1.333, P &lt; 0.05). HP infection independently accounted for approximately 5% of the CAS risk in the absence of other cardiovascular risk factors. A positive association between HP infection and CAS was demonstrated in this study. HP infection might be an independent risk factor for CAS. Although the effect of HP infection on CAS observed in our study was less than that of traditional risk factors, we believe that this is an indispensable advance in the etiological study of CAS. These results imply that the microbial population might play an essential role in CAS, which provides a new perspective for the primary prevention of CAS.

Association of longitudinal trends in thyroid function with incident carotid atherosclerosis in middle-aged and older euthyroid subjects: the Tianjin Chronic Low-Grade Systemic Inflammation and Health (TCLSIH) cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have posited that an association exists between thyroid function and the heart and vasculature. It remains unclear, however, whether longitudinal trends in thyroid function contribute to the development of atherosclerosis. We conducted a cohort study to examine the association of longitudinal trends in thyroid function with incident carotid atherosclerosis (CA) in middle-aged and older euthyroid subjects.

METHODS

This cohort study's participants were recruited from the Tianjin Chronic Low-grade Systemic Inflammation and Health Cohort Study in Tianjin, China. Free triiodothyronine (FT3), thyroxine (FT4) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) were measured using chemiluminescence immunoassay. CA was assessed using carotid ultrasonography. Thyroid function and ultrasonography were assessed yearly during follow-up. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between thyroid function and incident CA.

RESULTS

A total of 3,181 participants were enrolled in the cohort study. Within 7,762 person-years of follow-up, 944 participants developed CA, the incidence rate of CA was 122 per 1,000 person-years. The fully adjusted hazards ratios (95% confidence interval) of CA for per 1-unit increase in changes of FT3, FT4 and TSH were 1.34(1.22-1.47), 1.22(1.19-1.26) and 0.92 (0.77-1.09) (P < 0.0001, <0.0001 and = 0.32, respectively), respectively. Similar significant associations between mean levels of FT3 and FT4 and incident CA were observed. However, baseline thyroid function was not associated with incident CA.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that higher mean levels and higher values of changes in thyroid hormones were associated with a higher risk of incident CA in middle-aged and older euthyroid subjects.

Association Between Serum Uric Acid and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Different Fasting Blood Glucose Patterns: A Case-Control Study

Our objective was to analyze the correlation between serum uric acid (SUA) levels and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and explore the relationship between SUA and carotid atherosclerosis in different glucose metabolism patterns. A total of 614 patients were enrolled in this case-control study, including 406 in the normouricemia group and 208 in the hyperuricemia group. The two groups were each divided into three groups according to fasting blood glucose (FBG) level: normal, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and diabetes mellitus (DM). CIMT and the CIMT thickening rate in the hyperuricemia group were significantly higher than those in the normouricemia group: 0.17 (0.11-0.24) cm vs. 0.12 (0.08-0.15) cm and 73.56% vs. 51.97% (p < 0.001). Pearson's correlation analysis showed that age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure, FBG, triglyceride, SUA, creatinine, and blood urea nitrogen were positively correlated with CIMT, whereas high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and total cholesterol were negatively correlated with CIMT. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that age, SUA, FBG, and SBP were independent factors that affected CIMT. Furthermore, age and SBP were independent factors in the normouricemia group, and FBG was an independent factor that affected CIMT in the hyperuricemia group (p < 0.05). In the hyperuricemia group, CIMT in the DM group was significantly higher than that in the normal group [0.20 (0.14-0.25)cm vs. 0.15 (0.1-0.25); p < 0.05], and the CIMT thickening rate in the DM group was significantly higher than those in the IFG and normal groups (90.38% vs. 78.38%, 90.38% vs. 65.81%; p < 0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that uric acid combined with age, SBP, and FBG had the highest area under the curve (AUC) for predicting CIMT thickening [0.855 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.804-0.906)], followed by uric acid combined with FBG [AUC: 0.767 (95% CI: 0.726-0.808)]. In conclusion, SUA was closely associated with an increase in CIMT in patients with specific FBG metabolic patterns and may be an independent risk factor for carotid atherosclerosis. SUA, especially in combination with other factors (such as age, SBP, FBG), may serve as a specific model to help predict the incidence of CIMT thickening. Clinical Trial Registration: http://www.chictr.org.cn, identifier ChiCTR2000039124.

Relationship Between Dietary Patterns and Carotid Atherosclerosis Among People Aged 50 Years or Older: A Population-Based Study in China

Background: The relationship between dietary patterns and atherosclerosis is inconclusive. Usually, diets vary greatly among different regions due to cultural differences and lifestyles. Few studies to date based on a Chinese population have investigated the relationship between dietary patterns and the formation of atherosclerosis in carotid arteries. We aimed to investigate whether dietary patterns were related to carotid atherosclerosis among an adult population in Tianjin, China. Methods: This cross-sectional study included a total of 2,346 participants aged 50 years or older (mean: 59.7 ± 6.29 years). Dietary intakes were assessed using a validated 81-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire, and factor analysis was used to identify dietary patterns. Carotid atherosclerosis was defined as a common carotid artery intima-media thickness ≥1.0 mm or plaques, or a carotid bifurcation intima-media thickness ≥1.2 mm. Multiple logistic regression models were used to explore the relationship between dietary patterns and carotid atherosclerosis. Results: Three factors were determined: "health" dietary pattern (factor 1), "traditional Tianjin" dietary pattern (factor 2), and "sweets" dietary pattern (factor 3). The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) of carotid atherosclerosis for the increasing quartiles of the sweets dietary pattern scores in women were as follows: 1.00 (reference), 1.33 (0.91, 1.97), 1.21 (0.82, 1.79), 1.64 (1.08, 2.51) (p for trend <0.05). No significant difference was found between any dietary pattern and carotid atherosclerosis in men. Conclusion: Greater adherence to "sweets" dietary patterns was positively related to a higher prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis in women aged 50 or older. No relationship was found between any dietary pattern and carotid atherosclerosis in men. Further prospective studies are warranted to test this finding in other populations.

Incidence and predictors of progression of carotid atherosclerosis in a low-income Chinese population-a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

More than 200 million individuals have been diagnosed with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) in China. We aimed to investigate the incidence and potential predictors of CAS progression in a low-income rural area in China.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was conducted on individuals aged ≥45 years from 2014 to 2019. Multivariable analyses were used to investigate the predictors of carotid plaque (CP) formation, plaque number, and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT).

RESULTS

A total of 1479 participants were finally enrolled in this study. The incidence rate of CP was 42.9 cases per 1000 person-years, and the progression of median CIMT was 137.50 μm over five years. The risk of CP formation increased 2-fold in participants aged ≥75 years (P = 0.002) compared with those aged 45-54 years. The corresponding risk was 59% higher in participants with hypertension (P = 0.001) and 73% higher in alcohol drinkers (P = 0.006). With each 1- standard deviations (SD) increase in high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, the risk of CP occurrence decreased by 16% (P = 0.016) and increased by 29% (P = 0.002), respectively. Participants aged ≥75 years exhibited a 3.3-fold higher risk of having a high number of plaques than those aged 45-54 years (P = 0.014). Moreover, older age and the waist-to-hip ratio were independent predictors of CIMT progression.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first longitudinal study to explore the incidence and predictors of CAS progression in a low-income rural population in China with a high prevalence of stroke. More detailed and precise strategies for prevention and intervention of CAS progression are necessary, especially in low-income rural areas in China.

Carotid Ultrasound Screening Programs in Rural Communities: A Systematic Review

Carotid atherosclerosis assessments inform about stroke and cardiovascular risk. It is known that stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevalence is higher in rural communities than in urban communities. We aimed to conduct a systematic review of rural carotid ultrasound screening programs to define carotid atherosclerosis using traditional and emerging imaging biomarkers, prevalence, and risk factors. We searched Ovid/MEDLINE, Ovid/EMBASE, SCOPUS and CINAHL from inception to 3 April 2020 for rural population studies that utilized carotid ultrasound screening for adults ≥40 years of age and free of known cerebrovascular disease. Studies were included if participants received a bilateral ultrasound scanning of the carotid arteries and reported at least one marker of carotid atherosclerosis pathology. A random effect meta-analyses calculated the estimated prevalence of carotid plaque. In total, 22/3461 articles that met all of the inclusion criteria were included. Studies reported increased intima media thickness (IMT), carotid plaque presence and carotid artery stenosis. There were no studies reporting on novel imaging markers, such as carotid stiffness, carotid plaque morphology or neovascularization. The overall random effect pooled prevalence of carotid plaque was 34.1% (95% CI, 33.6–35.0); the prevalence of increased IMT was 11.2–41.5%, and the prevalence of carotid artery stenosis was 0.4–16.0%. There is an absence of data necessary to understand the carotid atherosclerosis prevalence across global rural populations. Represented studies have focused on East Asian countries where a high burden of rural carotid artery disease has been reported. There is no rural evidence to guide the use of novel ultrasound carotid biomarkers such as stiffness or neovascularization.

Triglyceride glucose index and carotid atherosclerosis incidence in the Chinese population: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The association of the triglyceride glucose (TyG) index with carotid atherosclerosis has not been reported in longitudinal studies. The present study aimed to investigate whether the TyG index increases the risk of carotid atherosclerosis incidence.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study included data from the Beijing Health Management Cohort (BHMC; n = 6955) and the Beijing Physical Examination Cohort (BPEC; n = 8473). Participants without a history of carotid atherosclerosis who underwent health examination in 2011 or 2012 were annually followed until 2019. The TyG index was denoted as ln [triglycerides (mmol/L)∗fasting glucose (mmol/L)/2]. During a median follow-up of 5.02 years and 5.36 years, 1441 individuals in the BHMC group and 2181 individuals in the BPEC group developed carotid plaque, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of the continuous TyG index were 1.253 (95% CI, 1.044 to 1.505) and 1.252 (95% CI, 1.091 to 1.437) for the BHMC and BPEC groups, respectively. Individuals in the highest quartile of the TyG index were associated with an increased risk of carotid plaque compared with those in the lowest quartile (BHMC: HR, 1.366; 95% CI, 1.101 to 1.695, P for trend = 0.010; BPEC: HR, 1.379; 95% CI, 1.196 to 1.591, P for trend = 0.013).

CONCLUSION

These findings suggested that a higher TyG index increases the risk of carotid atherosclerosis incidence in the general population.

Identification of Potential Key Genes Involved in the Carotid Atherosclerosis

Purpose

Carotid atherosclerosis is a kind of systemic atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries. However, the efficiency of treatment is insufficient. Therefore, it is urgent to find therapeutic targets and deepen the understanding of carotid atherosclerosis.

Materials and Methods

In this study, we analyzed differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between atheroma plaque and macroscopically intact tissue (control samples). Furthermore, we performed Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Gene and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analysis based on the DEGs. Four methods were used to identify the hub genes in the protein–protein interaction networks of the DEGs. Furthermore, we also performed network module analysis to reveal carotid atherosclerosis-related gene modules and biological functions.

Results

The enrichment results showed that the biological functions were related to inflammation, immunity, chemokine and cell adhesion molecule, such as PIK-Akt signaling pathway, Rap1 signaling pathway, MAPK signaling pathway, NOD-like receptor signaling pathway and B cell receptor signaling pathway. In addition, we screened the hub genes. A total of 16 up-regulated genes (C3AR1, CCR1, CCR2, CD33, CD53, CXCL10, CXCL8, CXCR4, CYBB, FCER1G, FPR2, ITGAL, ITGAM, ITGAX, ITGB2, and LILRB2) were identified as hub genes. A total of 5 gene modules were obtained. We found that biological functions obtained for each cluster were mostly related to immunity, chemokines and cell adhesion molecules.

Conclusion

The present study identified key DEGs in atheroma plaque compared with control samples. The key genes involved in the development of carotid atherosclerosis may provide valuable therapeutic targets for carotid atherosclerosis.

Predictors for carotid and femoral artery intima-media thickness in a non-diabetic sleep clinic cohort

Introduction

The impact of sleep disordered breathing (SDB) on arterial intima-media thickness (IMT), a surrogate measure for cardiovascular disease, remains uncertain, in part because of the potential for non-SDB vascular risk factor interactions. In the present study, we determined predictors for common carotid (CCA) and femoral (CFA) artery IMT in an adult, sleep clinic cohort where non-SDB vascular risk factors (particularly diabetes) were eliminated or controlled.

Methods

We recruited 296 participants for polysomnography (standard SDB severity metrics) and CCA/CFA ultrasound examinations, followed by a 12 month vascular risk factor minimisation (RFM) and continuous positive pressure (CPAP) intervention for participants with a range of SDB severity (RFM Sub-Group, n = 157; apnea hyponea index [AHI]: 14.7 (7.2–33.2), median [IQR]). Univariable and multivariable linear regression models determined independent predictors for IMT. Linear mixed effects modelling determined independent predictors for IMT change across the intervention study. P<0.05 was considered significant.

Results

Age, systolic blood pressure and waist:hip ratio were identified as non-SDB predictive factors for CCA IMT and age, weight and total cholesterol:HDL ratio for CFA IMT. No SDB severity metric emerged as an independent predictor for either CCA or CFA IMT, except in the RFM Sub-Group, where a 2-fold increase in AHI predicted a 2.4% increase in CFA IMT. Across the intervention study, CCA IMT decreased in those who lost weight, but there was no CPAP use interaction. CFA IMT, however, decreased by 12.9% (95%CI 6.8, 18.7%, p = 0.001) in those participants who both lost weight and used CPAP > = 4hours/night.

Conclusion

We conclude that SDB severity has little impact on CCA IMT values when non-SDB vascular risk factors are minimised or not present. This is the first study, however, to suggest a potential linkage between SDB severity and CFA IMT values.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12611000250932 and ACTRN12620000694910.

The prediction of asymptomatic carotid atherosclerosis with electronic health records: a comparative study of six machine learning models

BACKGROUND

Screening carotid B-mode ultrasonography is a frequently used method to detect subjects with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS). Due to the asymptomatic progression of most CAS patients, early identification is challenging for clinicians, and it may trigger ischemic stroke. Recently, machine learning has shown a strong ability to classify data and a potential for prediction in the medical field. The combined use of machine learning and the electronic health records of patients could provide clinicians with a more convenient and precise method to identify asymptomatic CAS.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using routine clinical data of medical check-up subjects from April 19, 2010 to November 15, 2019. Six machine learning models (logistic regression [LR], random forest [RF], decision tree [DT], eXtreme Gradient Boosting [XGB], Gaussian Naïve Bayes [GNB], and K-Nearest Neighbour [KNN]) were used to predict asymptomatic CAS and compared their predictability in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC), accuracy (ACC), and F1 score (F1).

RESULTS

Of the 18,441 subjects, 6553 were diagnosed with asymptomatic CAS. Compared to DT (AUCROC 0.628, ACC 65.4%, and F1 52.5%), the other five models improved prediction: KNN + 7.6% (0.704, 68.8%, and 50.9%, respectively), GNB + 12.5% (0.753, 67.0%, and 46.8%, respectively), XGB + 16.0% (0.788, 73.4%, and 55.7%, respectively), RF + 16.6% (0.794, 74.5%, and 56.8%, respectively) and LR + 18.1% (0.809, 74.7%, and 59.9%, respectively). The highest achieving model, LR predicted 1045/1966 cases (sensitivity 53.2%) and 3088/3566 non-cases (specificity 86.6%). A tenfold cross-validation scheme further verified the predictive ability of the LR.

CONCLUSIONS

Among machine learning models, LR showed optimal performance in predicting asymptomatic CAS. Our findings set the stage for an early automatic alarming system, allowing a more precise allocation of CAS prevention measures to individuals probably to benefit most.

Light-To-Moderate Raw Garlic Consumption Frequency Is Inversely Associated With Thickened Carotid Intima-Media Thickness: A Population-Based Study

Background: Previous animal and clinical studies have reported beneficial effects of garlic preparations on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT). However, no epidemiological study has yet investigated the association between dietary raw garlic consumption and cIMT in the general population. The objective of this study was investigating the association between dietary raw garlic consumption and thickened cIMT in Chinese adults.

Methods: This cross-sectional study used data from the Tianjin Chronic Low-grade Systemic Inflammation and Health Cohort Study. A total of 4,329 general adults from 2015 to 2017 were included in this study. Frequency of consumption of raw garlic was summarized as four categories for analysis: < 1 time/week, 1 time/week, 2-3 times/week, ≥4 times/week with a validated food frequency questionnaire. The thickened cIMT was defined as common carotid artery IMT ≥ 1.0 mm or a carotid bifurcation IMT ≥ 1.2 mm by ultrasonography. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between frequency of raw garlic consumption and thickened cIMT.

Results: The prevalence of thickened cIMT is 22.9% among these participants. The adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) associated with the different frequencies were 1.00 (reference) for < 1 time/week, 0.74 (0.59, 0.94) for 1 time/week, 0.71 (0.55, 0.92) for 2–3 times/week, and 0.94 (0.71, 1.25) for ≥ 4 times/week.

Conclusions: Light-to-moderate raw garlic consumption was inversely associated with thickened cIMT, whereas greater raw garlic consumption (i.e., ≥4 times/week) was not associated with thickened cIMT. Future longitudinal studies should be conducted to test these findings.

Role of NFAT in the Progression of Diabetic Atherosclerosis

Nuclear factor of activated T cells (NFAT) is a transcription factor with a multidirectional regulatory function, that is widely expressed in immune cells, including cells in the cardiovascular system, and non-immune cells. A large number of studies have confirmed that calcineurin/NFAT signal transduction is very important in the development of vascular system and cardiovascular system during embryonic development, and plays some role in the occurrence of vascular diseases such as atherosclerosis, vascular calcification, and hypertension. Recent in vitro and in vivo studies have shown that NFAT proteins and their activation in the nucleus and binding to DNA-related sites can easily ɨnduce the expression of downstream target genes that participate in the proliferation, migration, angiogenesis, and vascular inflammation of vascular wall related cells in various pathophysiological states. NFAT expression is regulated by various signaling pathways, including CD137-CD137L, and OX40-OX40L pathways. As a functionally diverse transcription factor, NFAT interacts with a large number of signaling molecules to modulate intracellular and extracellular signaling pathways. These NFAT-centered signaling pathways play important regulatory roles in the progression of atherosclerosis, such as in vascular smooth muscle cell phenotypic transition and migration, endothelial cell injury, macrophage-derived foam cell formation, and plaque calcification. NFAT and related signaling pathways provide new therapeutic targets for vascular diseases such as atherosclerosis. Hence, further studies of the mechanism of NFAT in the occurrence and evolution of atherosclerosis remain crucial.

Early-life exposure to the Chinese famine and risk of carotid intima-media thickness increased in adulthood

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little was known about the effect of famine exposure on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT). The present study aimed to explore the relationship in a Chinese population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants were divided into five groups: not exposed to famine, exposed to famine in fetal, early, mid or late childhood. Elevated cIMT was defined as a thickness of >0.9 mm measured by carotid ultrasound. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to calculate odds ratio (OR) and confidence interval (CI) between famine exposure and cIMT. A total of 2637 (970 male, mean age 59.1 ± 3.65 years) participants were recruited, and 491 (18.62%) of them had elevated cIMT. When compared with the non-exposure group, the fully adjusted ORs for increased cIMT for exposure in fetal, early, mid to late childhood were 1.321 (95%CI: 0.872, 1.994, P = 0.186), 1.713 (95% CI: 1.188, 2.483, P = 0.004), 2.359 (95% CI: 1.674, 3.357, P < 0.001) and 2.485 (95% CI: 1.773, 3.518, P < 0.001), respectively. Subgroup analyses showed that the exposure to famine did not interact with body mass index, gender, smoking status, hypertension and diabetes history on its effect on cIMT.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicated that early-life exposure to the Chinese famine might be associated with an increased risk of increased cIMT in adulthood.

Comparison of Carotid Plaque Characteristics Between Men and Women Using Magnetic Resonance Vessel Wall Imaging: A Chinese Atherosclerosis Risk Evaluation Study

BACKGROUND

Carotid vulnerable plaque is a major cause of stroke and differs between men and women. Few studies have investigated the differences in carotid plaque features between sexes in a Chinese population.

PURPOSE

To compare carotid atherosclerotic plaque features between men and women in a Chinese population using magnetic resonance imaging.

STUDY TYPE

Cross-sectional.

SUBJECTS

A total of 567 patients (mean age: 61.5 ± 10.1 years; 404 men) who had recent stroke or transient ischemia attack and atherosclerotic plaque in at least one carotid artery.

FIELD STRENGTH

A 3.0 T.

SEQUENCE

T1- and T2-weighted turbo spin echo, three-dimensional time-of-flight (TOF) fast field echo and magnetization-prepared rapid acquisition gradient echo sequences.

ASSESSMENT

Plaque characteristics including lumen area (LA), wall area (WA), total vessel area (TVA), mean wall thickness (MWT), and mean normalized wall index (NWI); presence of calcification, lipid-rich necrotic core (LRNC), intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH), and fibrous cap rupture (FCR); and percent composition area (%area) were evaluated and compared between men and women.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Independent-sample t test, Mann-Whitney U test, chi-square test, and multiple linear and logistic regressions.

RESULTS

In symptomatic arteries, men had significantly greater LA (46.2 ± 15.6 mm² vs. 40.7 ± 12.9 mm² , P < 0.05), WA (33.9 ± 11.5 mm² vs. 26.3 ± 7.5 mm² , P < 0.05), and TVA (80.1 ± 20.4 mm² vs. 67.0 ± 18.0 mm² , P < 0.05); higher MWT (1.2 ± 0.4 mm vs. 1.0 ± 0.2 mm, P < 0.05); and higher prevalence of LRNC (72.3% vs. 46.0%, P < 0.05) and IPH (18.6% vs. 4.9%, P < 0.05) compared with women. In asymptomatic arteries, men had significantly greater LA (48.3 ± 16.9 mm² vs. 42.1 ± 12.6 mm² , P < 0.05), WA (32.9 ± 11.0 mm² vs. 25.8 ± 6.1 mm² , P < 0.05), and TVA (81.2 ± 22.1 mm² vs. 67.9 ± 16.5 mm² , P < 0.05); higher MWT (1.2 ± 0.3 mm vs. 1.0 ± 0.2 mm, P < 0.05); higher prevalence of LRNC (67.8% vs. 42.9%, P < 0.05), IPH (14.9% vs. 1.2%, P < 0.05), and FCR (6.4% vs. 1.2%, P < 0.05); and higher %LRNC area (24.8 ± 17.2% vs. 17.8 ± 14.1%, P < 0.05) compared with women.

DATA CONCLUSION

Men have similar plaque burden but more vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques compared with women in both symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid arteries in a Chinese population.

EVIDENCE LEVEL

4 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 3.

Association of air pollution and greenness with carotid plaque: A prospective cohort study in China

Previous studies indicated that exposure to air pollution was associated with the progress of atherosclerosis, but evidence is very limited in China and even in the world. This study aims to assess the associations of long-term exposures to air pollution and greenness with the occurrence of carotid plaque. Participants of this cohort study were urban residents and office workers who visited Hebei General Hospital for routine physical examination annually from September 2016 through to December 2018. Eligible participants were people diagnosed the absence of carotid plaque clinically at their first hospital visit and were followed up at their second or third hospital visit. Exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) were estimated using an inverse distance weighted (IDW) method. The level of greenness was assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The associations were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Among 4,137 participants, 575 showed the occurrence of carotid plaque during the follow-up period. After controlling for potential confounders, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) of carotid plaque associated with per interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM2.5, NO2, and O3 were 1.78 (1.55, 2.03), 1.32 (1.14, 1.53) and 1.99 (1.71, 2.31), respectively. Increased EVI and NDVI were significantly associated with lower risk of carotid plaque [HR (and 95%CI): 0.84 (0.77, 0.93) and 0.87 (0.80, 0.94)]. PM2.5 significantly mediated 80.47% or 93.00% of the estimated association between EVI or NDVI and carotid plaque. In light of the significant associations between air pollution, greenness and carotid plaque in this study, continued efforts are needed to curb air pollution and plan more green space considering their effects on vascular disease.

Predictors for High-Risk Carotid Plaque in Asymptomatic Korean Population

Aims

High-risk carotid plaque remains an important risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We sought to evaluate the characteristics of carotid plaque and to find out the predictors for high-risk carotid plaque in asymptomatic Koreans.

Methods

Subjects (n = 801) without a history of ASCVD from 12 university hospitals in Korea underwent carotid ultrasound. The images were standardized at core laboratory. Morphologic characteristics of plaque were analyzed with laboratory and clinical characteristics. High-risk carotid plaque features included the highest quartile of carotid plaque score (cPS), irregular plaque surface, and hypoechoic and ulcerated plaque.

Results

The carotid plaque prevalence was 22.1% (177/801 persons, 293 plaques). The plaque was increased with age (p < 0.001) and conventional ASCVD risk estimator (p < 0.001) and the most frequently found in bulb (n = 190, 64.8%). The number of the highest quartile of cPS was 44/177 (24.9%). Irregular plaque was seen in 20.8% out of total plaque (61/293) and was more frequent in the high-risk 10-year ASCVD risk group than in the low-risk group (36.1% vs. 15.8%, p = 0.023). Hypoechoic and ulcerated plaques were seen in 14.3% (42/293) and 2% (6/293), respectively. The independent predictors for high-risk plaque were age (β = 0.052, p < 0.001), HbA1c (β = 0.182, p = 0.004), male (β = 0.118, p = 0.006), hypertension (β = 0.090, p = 0.032), and multiple plaques (OR: 4.810 (two plaques) and 8.621 (three plaques), all p < 0.001).

Conclusions

This study suggests that high-risk carotid plaque was seen in 12.4% (99/801). The high-risk plaque was associated with diabetes control status reflected by the HbA1c level as well as traditional risk factors in asymptomatic Korean population.

Visceral adiposity index and cervical arterial atherosclerosis in northeast China: a population based cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The burden of cervical arterial atherosclerosis, which is an important risk factor of stroke, is huge in China. The visceral adiposity index (VAI) is a convenient index that is related to a series of metabolic abnormalities and a variety of diseases, including cerebrovascular diseases. This study aimed to explore the relationship between VAI and cervical arterial atherosclerosis.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used the multistage stratified random cluster sampling method to acquire a representative sample of residents aged ≥40 in the general population of northeast China. All participants completed a detailed questionnaire and provided blood samples. Cervical vascular ultrasound was performed by experienced ultrasound doctors. VAI was calculated by a well-established formula and analyzed by quartiles (Q1-Q4).

RESULTS

A total of 3688 people aged ≥40 years who underwent cervical arterial ultrasound were finally included, amongst whom 3.2% had increased intima-media thickness (IMT), 48.6% had carotid plaque and 4.0% had cervical artery stenosis (CAS). After adjusting for several parameters, little statistical significance was found between VAI and increased IMT; compared with the VAI-Q1 group, the VAI-Q2, VAI-Q3 and VAI-Q4 groups were more likely to have CAS [odds ratio (OR) 2.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.43; OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.05-3.15; OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.03-3.12] and the VAI-Q3 and VAI-Q4 groups were at greater risk of carotid plaque (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05-1.62; OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.07-1.67).

CONCLUSIONS

The VAI was related to carotid plaque and CAS in the general population that is older than 40 years.

Global and regional prevalence, burden, and risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Estimation of the epidemiological burden of carotid atherosclerosis can serve as a basis for prevention and management of cardiovascular disease. We aimed to provide the first estimation on the prevalence, number of cases, and risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis in the general population globally and regionally.

METHODS

In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure for articles published from database inception until May 7, 2019, with no language restrictions, for population-based studies that quantified prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis by means of increased carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, and carotid stenosis. Studies were eligible if they included bilaterally scanned carotid arteries using ultrasonography and defined increased carotid intima-media thickness as a thickness of 1·0 mm or more, carotid plaque as a focal carotid intima-media thickness of 1·5 mm or more encroaching into the lumen or at least 0·5 mm or 50% compared with the surrounding carotid intima-media thickness values, and carotid stenosis as 50% or more stenosis. Studies were excluded if the sample was not representative of the general population. We also included studies identified in our previous systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis in China. We estimated age-specific and sex-specific prevalences of increased carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, and carotid stenosis. We used UN population data to generate the number of people affected in 2000, 2015, and 2020. We did random-effects meta-analyses to assess the effects of risk factors for increased carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque. We derived regional numbers of people living with increased carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque in 2015 using a risk factors-based model by WHO region. All analyses were done in populations aged 30-79 years due to availability of data. This systematic review and meta-analysis is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42019134709.

FINDINGS

We identified 8632 articles through our database search, of which 515 were eligible for full-text review, including 37 articles from our previous study, and 59 articles were eligible for inclusion in our systematic review and meta-analysis. Overall, in people aged 30-79 years in 2020, the global prevalence of increased carotid intima-media thickness is estimated to be 27·6% (95% CI 16·9-41·3), equivalent to 1066·70 million affected people and a percentage change of 57·46% from 2000; of carotid plaque is estimated to be 21·1% (13·2-31·5), equivalent to 815·76 million affected people and a percentage change of 58·97% from 2000; and carotid stenosis is estimated to be 1·5% (1·1-2·1), equivalent to 57·79 million affected people and a percentage change of 59·13% from 2000. The prevalence of increased carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, and carotid stenosis increased consistently with age and was higher in men than in women. Current smoking, diabetes, and hypertension were common risk factors for increased carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque. In 2015, the Western Pacific region had the largest share of global cases of increased carotid intima-media thickness (317·62 million [33·36%] of 952·13 million affected people) and carotid plaque (240·77 million [33·20%] of 725·25 million), whereas the African region had the smallest share of cases of increased carotid intima-media thickness (59·08 million [6·21%]) and the Eastern Mediterranean region had the smallest share of carotid plaque cases (44·59 million [6·15%]).

INTERPRETATION

A substantial global burden of carotid atherosclerosis exists. Effective strategies are needed for primary prevention and management of carotid atherosclerosis. High-quality epidemiological investigations on carotid atherosclerosis are needed to better address the global burden of carotid atherosclerosis at finer levels.

FUNDING

None.

Association between multi-site atherosclerotic plaques and systemic arteriosclerosis: results from the BEST study (Beijing Vascular Disease Patients Evaluation Study)

BACKGROUND

Arteriosclerosis can be reflected in various aspect of the artery, including atherosclerotic plaque formation or stiffening on the arterial wall. Both arteriosclerosis and atherosclerosis are important and closely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of the study was to evaluate the association between systemic arteriosclerosis and multi-site atherosclerotic plaques.

METHODS

The study was designed as an observational cross-sectional study. A total of 1178 participants (mean age 67.4 years; 52.2% male) enrolled into the observational study from 2010 to 2017. Systemic arteriosclerosis was assessed by carotid femoral artery pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV) and multi-site atherosclerotic plaques (MAP, > = 2 of the below sites) were reflected in the carotid or subclavian artery, abdominal aorta and lower extremities arteries using ultrasound equipment. The associations were assessed by multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The prevalence of CF-PWV > 12 m/s and MAP were 40.2% and 74.4%. Atherosclerotic plaques in 3 sites were more common in male compared with that in female (48.9% versus 36.9%, p < 0.05). All CVD factors were worse in participants with MAP than that with <=1 site. Participants with CF-PWV > 12 m/s corresponded to a mean 82% probability of MAP with age and sex-adjusted. Patients with peripheral artery disease showed the highest odds ratio (OR) (3.88) for MAP, followed by smoking (2.485), CF-PWV > 12 m/s (2.25), dyslipidemia (1.89), male (1.84), stroke (1.64), hypoglycemic agents (1.56) and age (1.09) (all p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

MAP was highly prevalent in this cohort, with male showing a higher prevalence than female. Higher systemic arteriosclerosis was independently associated with MAP, which indicating the supplementary value of arteriosclerosis for the earlier identification and intervention on MAP.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trial, URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT02569268 .

Activation of CXCR7 promotes endothelial repair and reduces the carotid atherosclerotic lesions through inhibition of pyroptosis signaling pathways

Endothelial injuries, including cell pyroptosis, are ongoing inflammatory processes with key roles in atherosclerosis development. Our previous report showed that the chemokine CXCL12 and its receptor CXCR7 are associated with the proliferation and angiogenesis of endothelial cells. Nevertheless, the mechanism underlying these effects on atherosclerotic lesions, especially on endothelial dysfunction, remains unknown. Here, we demonstrated that CXCR7 was upregulated in human carotid atherosclerotic plaques, apolipoprotein E knockout (ApoE^−/−) mice fed with a high‐fat diet (HFD), and oxidized lipopolysaccharide‐treated (ox‐LDL) human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs). Further, the activation of CXCR7 reversed ox‐LDL‐induced HUVEC dysfunction, such as migration, tube formation, and cell pyroptosis; all of these protective effects were alleviated by inhibition of CXCR7. The NOD‐like receptor family pyrin domain‐containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasomes were also elevated in human carotid atherosclerotic plaques, ApoE^−/− mice fed with HFD, and ox‐LDL‐injured HUVECs by regulation of caspase‐1 and interleukin (IL)‐1β expression. The activation of CXCR7 by TC14012 led to a decrease in atherosclerotic lesions in ApoE^−/− mice fed with HFD. TC14012 also inhibited the expression of the NLRP3 inflammasome signaling pathway in vivo. In conclusion, our study suggests that CXCR7 plays an important role in regulating NLRP3 inflammasome‐modulated pyroptosis in HUVECs, providing a potential novel therapy for atherosclerosis.