Ensemble averaging based assessment of spatiotemporal variations in ambient PM2.5 concentrations over Delhi, India, during 2010-2016

Health effects of selected environmental Exposomes Across the Life courSe in Indian populations using longitudinal cohort studies: GEOHealth HEALS Study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Air pollution presents a major public health threat to India, affecting more than three quarters of the country's population. In the current project, GEOHealth Health Effects of Selected Environmental Exposomes Across the Life CourSe-India, we aim to study the effect of environmental exposomes-fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) and extremes of temperature-on multiple health outcomes using a modified life course approach. The associated training grant aims to build capacity in India to address the unique environmental health problems.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The project aims to (A) Develop exposure assessments in seven cities, namely Delhi, Chennai, Sonipat, Vizag, Pune, Hyderabad and Bikaner, for: (1) A fine-scale spatiotemporal model for multiple pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, O3, temperature); (2) Combined ground monitoring and modelling for major chemical species of ambient PM2.5 at seven cities; and (3) Personal exposure assessment in a subsample from the six cities, except Pune, and (B) Conduct health association studies covering a range of chronic non-communicable diseases and their risk factors leveraging a unique approach using interdigitating cohorts. We have assembled existing pregnancy, child, adolescent, adult and older adult cohorts across India to explore health effects of exposomes using causal analyses. We propose to use Bayesian kernel machine regression to assess the effects of mixtures of all pollutants including species of PM2.5 on health while accounting for potential non-linearities and interactions between exposures. This builds on earlier work that constructed a fine spatiotemporal model for PM2.5 exposure to study health outcomes in two Indian cities.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical clearance for conduct of the study was obtained from the Institutional Ethics Committee (IEC) of the Centre for Chronic Disease Control, and all the participating institutes and organisations. National-level permission was provided by the Indian Council of Medical Research. The research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, policy briefs, print and social media, and communicating with the participating communities and stakeholders. Training of Indian scientists will build the capacity to undertake research on selected adverse environmental exposures on population health in India.

Parsimonious Random-Forest-Based Land-Use Regression Model Using Particulate Matter Sensors in Berlin, Germany

Machine learning (ML) methods are widely used in particulate matter prediction modelling, especially through use of air quality sensor data. Despite their advantages, these methods' black-box nature obscures the understanding of how a prediction has been made. Major issues with these types of models include the data quality and computational intensity. In this study, we employed feature selection methods using recursive feature elimination and global sensitivity analysis for a random-forest (RF)-based land-use regression model developed for the city of Berlin, Germany. Land-use-based predictors, including local climate zones, leaf area index, daily traffic volume, population density, building types, building heights, and street types were used to create a baseline RF model. Five additional models, three using recursive feature elimination method and two using a Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA), were implemented, and their performance was compared against that of the baseline RF model. The predictors that had a large effect on the prediction as determined using both the methods are discussed. Through feature elimination, the number of predictors were reduced from 220 in the baseline model to eight in the parsimonious models without sacrificing model performance. The model metrics were compared, which showed that the parsimonious_GSA-based model performs better than does the baseline model and reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) from 8.69 µg/m3 to 3.6 µg/m3 and the root mean squared error (RMSE) from 9.86 µg/m3 to 4.23 µg/m3 when applying the trained model to reference station data. The better performance of the GSA_parsimonious model is made possible by the curtailment of the uncertainties propagated through the model via the reduction of multicollinear and redundant predictors. The parsimonious model validated against reference stations was able to predict the PM2.5 concentrations with an MAE of less than 5 µg/m3 for 10 out of 12 locations. The GSA_parsimonious performed best in all model metrics and improved the R2 from 3% in the baseline model to 17%. However, the predictions exhibited a degree of uncertainty, making it unreliable for regional scale modelling. The GSA_parsimonious model can nevertheless be adapted to local scales to highlight the land-use parameters that are indicative of PM2.5 concentrations in Berlin. Overall, population density, leaf area index, and traffic volume are the major predictors of PM2.5, while building type and local climate zones are the less significant predictors. Feature selection based on sensitivity analysis has a large impact on the model performance. Optimising models through sensitivity analysis can enhance the interpretability of the model dynamics and potentially reduce computational costs and time when modelling is performed for larger areas.

Longitudinal associations between ambient PM2.5 exposure and lipid levels in two Indian cities

Background

Exposure to ambient PM2.5 is known to affect lipid metabolism through systemic inflammation and oxidative stress. Evidence from developing countries, such as India with high levels of ambient PM2.5 and distinct lipid profiles, is sparse.

Methods

Longitudinal nonlinear mixed-effects analysis was conducted on >10,000 participants of Centre for cArdiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia (CARRS) cohort in Chennai and Delhi, India. We examined associations between 1-month and 1-year average ambient PM2.5 exposure derived from the spatiotemporal model and lipid levels (total cholesterol [TC], triglycerides [TRIG], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C]) measured longitudinally, adjusting for residential and neighborhood-level confounders.

Results

The mean annual exposure in Chennai and Delhi was 40 and 102 μg/m3 respectively. Elevated ambient PM2.5 levels were associated with an increase in LDL-C and TC at levels up to 100 µg/m3 in both cities and beyond 125 µg/m3 in Delhi. TRIG levels in Chennai increased until 40 µg/m3 for both short- and long-term exposures, then stabilized or declined, while in Delhi, there was a consistent rise with increasing annual exposures. HDL-C showed an increase in both cities against monthly average exposure. HDL-C decreased slightly in Chennai with an increase in long-term exposure, whereas it decreased beyond 130 µg/m3 in Delhi.

Conclusion

These findings demonstrate diverse associations between a wide range of ambient PM2.5 and lipid levels in an understudied South Asian population. Further research is needed to establish causality and develop targeted interventions to mitigate the impact of air pollution on lipid metabolism and cardiovascular health.

Nationwide estimation of daily ambient PM2.5 from 2008 to 2020 at 1 km2 in India using an ensemble approach

High-resolution assessment of historical levels is essential for assessing the health effects of ambient air pollution in the large Indian population. The diversity of geography, weather patterns, and progressive urbanization, combined with a sparse ground monitoring network makes it challenging to accurately capture the spatiotemporal patterns of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in India. We developed a model for daily average ambient PM2.5 between 2008 and 2020 based on monitoring data, meteorology, land use, satellite observations, and emissions inventories. Daily average predictions at each 1 km × 1 km grid from each learner were ensembled using a Gaussian process regression with anisotropic smoothing over spatial coordinates, and regression calibration was used to account for exposure error. Cross-validating by leaving monitors out, the ensemble model had an R2 of 0.86 at the daily level in the validation data and outperformed each component learner (by 5-18%). Annual average levels in different zones ranged between 39.7 μg/m3 (interquartile range: 29.8-46.8) in 2008 and 30.4 μg/m3 (interquartile range: 22.7-37.2) in 2020, with a cross-validated (CV)-R2 of 0.94 at the annual level. Overall mean absolute daily errors (MAE) across the 13 years were between 14.4 and 25.4 μg/m3. We obtained high spatial accuracy with spatial R2 greater than 90% and spatial MAE ranging between 7.3-16.5 μg/m3 with relatively better performance in urban areas at low and moderate elevation. We have developed an important validated resource for studying PM2.5 at a very fine spatiotemporal resolution, which allows us to study the health effects of PM2.5 across India and to identify areas with exceedingly high levels.

Improving PM2.5 prediction in New Delhi using a hybrid extreme learning machine coupled with snake optimization algorithm

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a significant air pollutant that drives the most chronic health problems and premature mortality in big metropolitans such as Delhi. In such a context, accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentration is critical for raising public awareness, allowing sensitive populations to plan ahead, and providing governments with information for public health alerts. This study applies a novel hybridization of extreme learning machine (ELM) with a snake optimization algorithm called the ELM-SO model to forecast PM2.5 concentrations. The model has been developed on air quality inputs and meteorological parameters. Furthermore, the ELM-SO hybrid model is compared with individual machine learning models, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), XGBoost, and a deep learning model known as Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), in forecasting PM2.5 concentrations. The study results suggested that ELM-SO exhibited the highest level of predictive performance among the five models, with a testing value of squared correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.928, and root mean square error of 30.325 µg/m3. The study's findings suggest that the ELM-SO technique is a valuable tool for accurately forecasting PM2.5 concentrations and could help advance the field of air quality forecasting. By developing state-of-the-art air pollution prediction models that incorporate ELM-SO, it may be possible to understand better and anticipate the effects of air pollution on human health and the environment.

PM2.5 exposure, glycemic markers and incidence of type 2 diabetes in two large Indian cities

INTRODUCTION

Exposure to fine particulate matter has been associated with several cardiovascular and cardiometabolic diseases. However, such evidence mostly originates from low-pollution settings or cross-sectional studies, thus necessitating evidence from regions with high air pollution levels, such as India, where the burden of non-communicable diseases is high.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the associations between ambient PM2.5 levels and fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among 12 064 participants in an adult cohort from urban Chennai and Delhi, India. A meta-analytic approach was used to combine estimates, obtained from mixed-effects models and proportional hazards models, from the two cities.

RESULTS

We observed that 10 μg/m3 differences in monthly average exposure to PM2.5 was associated with a 0.40 mg/dL increase in FPG (95% CI 0.22 to 0.58) and 0.021 unit increase in HbA1c (95% CI 0.009 to 0.032). Further, 10 μg/m3 differences in annual average PM2.5 was associated with 1.22 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.36) times increased risk of incident T2DM, with non-linear exposure response.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed evidence of temporal association between PM2.5 exposure, and higher FPG and incident T2DM in two urban environments in India, thus highlighting the potential for population-based mitigation policies to reduce the growing burden of diabetes.

The burgeoning cardiovascular disease epidemic in Indians - perspectives on contextual factors and potential solutions

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death and disability in India. The CVD epidemic in Indians is characterized by a higher relative risk burden, an earlier age of onset, higher case fatality and higher premature deaths. For decades, researchers have been trying to understand the reason for this increased burden and propensity of CVD among Indians. It can partly be explained by population-level changes and the remaining by increased inherent biological risk. While increased biological risk can be attributed to phenotypic changes caused by early life influences, six major transitions can be considered largely responsible for the population-level changes in India-epidemiological, demographic, nutritional, environmental, social-cultural and economic. Although conventional risk factors explain substantial population attributable risk, the thresholds at which these risk factors operate are different among Indians compared with other populations. Therefore, alternate explanations for these ecological differences have been sought and multiple hypotheses have been proposed over the years. Prenatal factors that include maternal and paternal influences on the offspring, and postnatal factors, ranging from birth through childhood, adolescence and young adulthood, as well as inter-generational influences have been explored using the life course approach to chronic disease. In addition to this, recent research has illustrated the importance of the role of inherent biological differences in lipid metabolism, glucose metabolism, inflammatory states, genetic predispositions and epigenetic influences for the increased risk. A multifaceted and holistic approach to CVD prevention that takes into consideration population-level as well as biological risk factors would be needed to control the burgeoning CVD epidemic among Indians.

A Markov chain-based IoT system for monitoring and analysis of urban air quality

Severe deterioration of urban air quality in Asian cities is the cause of a large number of deaths every year. A Markov chain-based IoT system is developed in this study to monitor, analyze, and predict urban air quality. The proposed sensing setup is integrated with an automobile and is used for collecting air quality information. An Android application is used to transfer and store the sensed data in the data cloud. The data stored is used to generate the transition matrix of the AQI states and calculate return periods for each AQI state. The estimated time interval after which an AQI event recurs or is repeated is known as return period. The actual return periods for each AQI state at the test locations in Delhi-NCR are compared with those predicted using discrete time Markov chain (DTMC) models. Average absolute forecast error using our model was found to be 3.38% and 4.06%, respectively, at the selected locations.

Strict lockdown measures reduced PM2.5 concentrations during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kolkata, India

The COVID-19 situation is a critical state throughout the world that most countries have been forced to implement partial to total lockdown to control the COVID-19 disease outbreak. And displays the natural power to rejuvenate herself without the interference of human beings. So, the top-level emergency response including full quarantine actions are significant measures against the COVID-19 and resulted in a notable reduction in PM2.5 in the atmosphere. India was severely attacked by COVID-19, and as a result, the Government of India has imposed a nationwide lockdown from 24th March (2020) to 30th May (2020) in different phases. The COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown had a significant negative impact on India's socioeconomic structure but had a positive impact on environmental sustainability in terms of improved air quality due to the 68 days of the shutdown of India's industrial, commercial, construction, and transportation systems. The current study looked at the spatio-temporal changes in PM2.5 concentrations at different air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) in Kolkata during the COVID-19 period. The study revealed that the average concentration of PM2.5 (µg/m3) was slightly high (139.82) in the pre-lockdown period which was rapidly reduced to 37.77 (72.99% reduction) during the lockdown period and it was further increased (137.11) in post-lockdown period. The study also shows that the average concentration of PM2.5 was 66.83 in 2018, which slightly increased to 70.43 (5.39%) in 2019 and dramatically decreased to 37.77 (46.37%) in the year 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown. The study clearly shows that air quality improves during lockdown periods in Kolkata, but it is not a permanent solution rather than temporary. Therefore, it is necessary to make the proper policies and strategies by policymakers and government authorities, and environmental scientists to maintain such good air quality by controlling several measures of air pollutants.

Ensemble averaging using remote sensing data to model spatiotemporal PM10 concentrations in sparsely monitored South Africa

There is a paucity of air quality data in sub-Saharan African countries to inform science driven air quality management and epidemiological studies. We investigated the use of available remote-sensing aerosol optical depth (AOD) data to develop spatially and temporally resolved models to predict daily particulate matter (PM₁₀) concentrations across four provinces of South Africa (Gauteng, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape) for the year 2016 in a two-staged approach. In stage 1, a Random Forest (RF) model was used to impute Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction AOD data for days where it was missing. In stage 2, the machine learner algorithms RF, Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Regression were used to model the relationship between ground-monitored PM₁₀ data, AOD and other spatial and temporal predictors. These were subsequently combined in an ensemble model to predict daily PM₁₀ concentrations at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution across the four provinces. An out-of-bag R² of 0.96 was achieved for the first stage model. The stage 2 cross-validated (CV) ensemble model captured 0.84 variability in ground-monitored PM₁₀ with a spatial CV R² of 0.48 and temporal CV R² of 0.80. The stage 2 model indicated an optimal performance of the daily predictions when aggregated to monthly and annual means. Our results suggest that a combination of remote sensing data, chemical transport model estimates and other spatiotemporal predictors has the potential to improve air quality exposure data in South Africa's major industrial provinces. In particular, the use of a combined ensemble approach was found to be useful for this area with limited availability of air pollution ground monitoring data.

Estimating PM2.5 concentration using the machine learning GA-SVM method to improve the land use regression model in Shaanxi, China

With rapid economic growth, urbanization and industrialization, fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) has become a major pollutant and shows adverse effects on both human health and the atmospheric environment. Many studies on estimating PM_2.5 concentrations have been performed using statistical regression models and satellite remote sensing. However, the accuracy of PM_2.5 concentration estimates is limited by traditional regression models; machine learning methods have high predictive power, but fewer studies have been performed on the complementary advantages of different approaches. This study estimates PM_2.5 concentrations from satellite remote sensing-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) products, meteorological data, terrain data and other predictors in 2015 in Shaanxi, China, using a combined genetic algorithm-support vector machine (GA-SVM) method, after which the spatial clustering pattern was explored at the season and year levels. The results indicated that temperature (r = -0.684), precipitation (r = -0.602) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (r = -0.523) were significantly negatively correlated with the PM_2.5 concentration, while AOD (r = 0.337) was significantly positively correlated with the PM_2.5 concentration. Compared to conventional land use regression (LUR) and SVM models and previous related studies, the GA-SVM method demonstrated a significantly better prediction accuracy of PM_2.5 concentration, with a higher 10-fold cross-validation coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.84 and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of 12.1 μg/m³ and 10.07 μg/m³, respectively. Y-scrambling test shows that the models have no chance correlation. The central and southern parts of Shaanxi have high PM_2.5 concentrations, which are mainly due to the pollutant emissions and meteorological and topographical conditions in those areas. There was a positive spatial agglomeration characteristic of regional PM_2.5 pollution, and the spatial spillover effect of PM_2.5 pollution for seasonal and annual variations does exist. In general, the GA-SVM method is robust and accurately estimates PM_2.5 concentrations via a novel modeling framework application and high-quality spatiotemporal information. It also has great significance for the exploration of PM_2.5 pollution estimation and high-precision mapping methods, especially early warning in high-risk areas. Finally, the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution should take pollution control measures from major cities and surrounding cities, and focus on the joint pollution control measures for plain cities.

Daily nonaccidental mortality associated with short-term PM2.5 exposures in Delhi, India

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Ambient particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microns PM_2.5) levels in Delhi routinely exceed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and Indian National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for acceptable levels of daily exposure. Only a handful of studies have examined the short-term mortality effects of PM in India, with none from Delhi examining the contribution of PM_2.5.

Effects of lockdown due to COVID-19 outbreak on air quality and anthropogenic heat in an industrial belt of India

Highly urbanized and industrialized Asansol Durgapur industrial belt of Eastern India is characterized by severe heat island effect and high pollution level leading to human discomfort and even health problems. However, COVID-19 persuaded lockdown emergency in India led to shut-down of the industries, traffic system, and day-to-day normal work and expectedly caused changes in air quality and weather. The present work intended to examine the impact of lockdown on air quality, land surface temperature (LST), and anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) of Asansol Durgapur industrial belt. Satellite images and daily data of the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) were used for analyzing the spatial scale and numerical change of air quality from pre to amid lockdown conditions in the study region. Results exhibited that, in consequence of lockdown, LST reduced by 4.02 °C, PM10 level decreased from 102 to 18 μg/m3 and AHF declined from 116 to 40W/m2 during lockdown period. Qualitative upgradation of air quality index (AQI) from poor to very poor state to moderate to satisfactory state was observed during lockdown period. To regulate air quality and climate change, many steps were taken at global and regional scales, but no fruitful outcome was received yet. Such lockdown (temporarily) is against economic growth, but it showed some healing effect of air quality standard.

Local PM2.5 Hotspot Detector at 300 m Resolution: A Random Forest–Convolutional Neural Network Joint Model Jointly Trained on Satellite Images and Meteorology

Satellite-based rapid sweeping screening of localized PM2.5 hotspots at fine-scale local neighborhood levels is highly desirable. This motivated us to develop a random forest–convolutional neural network–local contrast normalization (RF–CNN–LCN) pipeline that detects local PM2.5 hotspots at a 300 m resolution using satellite imagery and meteorological information. The RF–CNN joint model in the pipeline uses three meteorological variables and daily 3 m/pixel resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery to generate daily 300 m ground-level PM2.5 estimates. The downstream LCN processes the estimated PM2.5 maps to reveal local PM2.5 hotspots. The RF–CNN joint model achieved a low normalized root mean square error for PM2.5 of within ~31% and normalized mean absolute error of within ~19% on the holdout samples in both Delhi and Beijing. The RF–CNN–LCN pipeline reasonably predicts urban PM2.5 local hotspots and coolspots by capturing both the main intra-urban spatial trends in PM2.5 and the local variations in PM2.5 with urban landscape, with local hotspots relating to compact urban spatial structures and coolspots being open areas and green spaces. Based on 20 sampled representative neighborhoods in Delhi, our pipeline revealed an annual average 9.2 ± 4.0 μg m−3 difference in PM2.5 between the local hotspots and coolspots within the same community. In some cases, the differences were much larger; for example, at the Indian Gandhi International Airport, the increase was 20.3 μg m−3 from the coolest spot (the residential area immediately outside the airport) to the hottest spot (airport runway). This work provides a possible means of automatically identifying local PM2.5 hotspots at 300 m in heavily polluted megacities and highlights the potential existence of substantial health inequalities in long-term outdoor PM2.5 exposures even within the same local neighborhoods between local hotspots and coolspots.

Comparing Methods to Impute Missing Daily Ground-Level PM10 Concentrations between 2010-2017 in South Africa

Good quality and completeness of ambient air quality monitoring data is central in supporting actions towards mitigating the impact of ambient air pollution. In South Africa, however, availability of continuous ground-level air pollution monitoring data is scarce and incomplete. To address this issue, we developed and compared different modeling approaches to impute missing daily average particulate matter (PM₁₀) data between 2010 and 2017 using spatiotemporal predictor variables. The random forest (RF) machine learning method was used to explore the relationship between average daily PM₁₀ concentrations and spatiotemporal predictors like meteorological, land use and source-related variables. National (8 models), provincial (32) and site-specific (44) RF models were developed to impute missing daily PM₁₀ data. The annual national, provincial and site-specific RF cross-validation (CV) models explained on average 78%, 70% and 55% of ground-level PM₁₀ concentrations, respectively. The spatial components of the national and provincial CV RF models explained on average 22% and 48%, while the temporal components of the national, provincial and site-specific CV RF models explained on average 78%, 68% and 57% of ground-level PM₁₀ concentrations, respectively. This study demonstrates a feasible approach based on RF to impute missing measurement data in areas where data collection is sparse and incomplete.

Exposure to Particulate Matter Is Associated With Elevated Blood Pressure and Incident Hypertension in Urban India

Ambient air pollution, specifically particulate matter of diameter <2.5 μm, is reportedly associated with cardiovascular disease risk. However, evidence linking particulate matter of diameter <2.5 μm and blood pressure (BP) is largely from cross-sectional studies and from settings with lower concentrations of particulate matter of diameter <2.5 μm, with exposures not accounting for myriad time-varying and other factors such as built environment. This study aimed to study the association between long- and short-term ambient particulate matter of diameter <2.5 μm exposure from a hybrid spatiotemporal model at 1-km×1-km spatial resolution with longitudinally measured systolic and diastolic BP and incident hypertension in 5342 participants from urban Delhi, India, within an ongoing representative urban adult cohort study. Median annual and monthly exposure at baseline was 92.1 μg/m3 (interquartile range, 87.6-95.7) and 82.4 μg/m3 (interquartile range, 68.4-107.0), respectively. We observed higher average systolic BP (1.77 mm Hg [95% CI, 0.97-2.56] and 3.33 mm Hg [95% CI, 1.12-5.52]) per interquartile range differences in monthly and annual exposures, respectively, after adjusting for covariates. Additionally, interquartile range differences in long-term exposures of 1, 1.5, and 2 years increased the risk of incident hypertension by 1.53× (95% CI, 1.19-1.96), 1.59× (95% CI, 1.31-1.92), and 1.16× (95% CI, 0.95-1.43), respectively. Observed effects were larger in individuals with higher waist-hip ratios. Our data strongly support a temporal association between high levels of ambient air pollution, higher systolic BP, and incident hypertension. Given that high BP is an important risk factor of cardiovascular disease, reducing ambient air pollution is likely to have meaningful clinical and public health benefits.

Building capacity for air pollution epidemiology in India

Air pollution represents a major public health threat in India affecting 19% of the world's population at extreme levels. Despite this, research in India lags behind in large part due to a lack of comprehensive air pollution exposure assessment that can be used in conjunction with health data to investigate health effects. Our vision is to provide a consortium to rapidly expand the evidence base of the multiple effects of ambient air pollution. We intend to leapfrog current limitations of exposure assessment by developing a machine-learned satellite-informed spatiotemporal model to estimate daily levels of ambient fine particulate matter measuring less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) at a fine spatial scale across all of India. To catalyze health effects research on an unprecedented scale, we will make the output from this model publicly available. In addition, we will also apply these PM2.5 estimates to study the health outcomes of greatest public health importance in India, including cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pregnancy (and birth) outcomes, and cognitive development and/or decline. Thus, our efforts will directly generate actionable new evidence on the myriad effects of air pollution on health that can inform policy decisions, while providing a comprehensive and publicly available resource for future studies on both exposure and health effects. In this commentary, we discuss the motivation, rationale, and vision for our consortium and a path forward for reducing the enormous burden of disease from air pollution in India.

Estimation of High-Resolution PM2.5 over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by Fusion of Satellite Data, Meteorology, and Land Use Variables

Very high spatially resolved satellite-derived ground-level concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) have multiple potential applications, especially in air quality modeling and epidemiological and climatological research. Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) and columnar water vapor (CWV), meteorological parameters, and land use data were used as variables within the framework of a linear mixed effect model (LME) and a random forest (RF) model to predict daily ground-level concentrations of PM_2.5 at 1 km × 1 km grid resolution across the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in South Asia. The RF model exhibited superior performance and higher accuracy compared with the LME model, with better cross-validated explained variance (R² = 0.87) and lower relative prediction error (RPE = 24.5%). The RF model revealed improved performance metrics for increasing averaging periods, from daily to weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual means, which supported its use in estimating PM_2.5 exposure metrics across the IGP at varying temporal scales (i.e., both short and long terms). The RF-based PM_2.5 estimates showed high PM_2.5 levels over the middle and lower IGP, with the annual mean exceeding 110 μg/m³. As for seasons, winter was the most polluted season, while monsoon was the cleanest. Spatially, the middle and lower IGP showed poorer air quality compared to the upper IGP. In winter, the middle and lower IGP experienced very poor air quality, with mean PM_2.5 concentrations of >170 μg/m³.

Leveraging Existing Cohorts to Study Health Effects of Air Pollution on Cardiometabolic Disorders: India Global Environmental and Occupational Health Hub

Air pollution is a growing public health concern in developing countries and poses a huge epidemiological burden. Despite the growing awareness of ill effects of air pollution, the evidence linking air pollution and health effects is sparse. This requires environmental exposure scientist and public health researchers to work more cohesively to generate evidence on health impacts of air pollution in developing countries for policy advocacy. In the Global Environmental and Occupational Health (GEOHealth) Program, we aim to build exposure assessment model to estimate ambient air pollution exposure at a very fine resolution which can be linked with health outcomes leveraging well-phenotyped cohorts which have information on geolocation of households of study participants. We aim to address how air pollution interacts with meteorological and weather parameters and other aspects of the urban environment, occupational classification, and socioeconomic status, to affect cardiometabolic risk factors and disease outcomes. This will help us generate evidence for cardiovascular health impacts of ambient air pollution in India needed for necessary policy advocacy. The other exploratory aims are to explore mediatory role of the epigenetic mechanisms (DNA methylation) and vitamin D exposure in determining the association between air pollution exposure and cardiovascular health outcomes. Other components of the GEOHealth program include building capacity and strengthening the skills of public health researchers in India through variety of training programs and international collaborations. This will help generate research capacity to address environmental and occupational health research questions in India. The expertise that we bring together in GEOHealth hub are public health, clinical epidemiology, environmental exposure science, statistical modeling, and policy advocacy.