Post-treatment levels of α-fetoprotein predict incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma after interferon therapy

Lysyl oxidase-like 2 as a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus after sustained virological response

Lysyl oxidase-like 2 (LOXL2) mediates the crosslinking of extracellular collagen, reflecting qualitative changes in liver fibrosis. This study aimed to validate the utility of serum LOXL2 levels as a predictive biomarker for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). This retrospective study included 137 patients with chronic HCV infection without history of HCC development and who achieved SVR via direct-acting antiviral therapy. Median LOXL2 levels decreased significantly after SVR achievement (pre-Tx, 2.33 ng/mL; post-Tx, 1.31 ng/mL, p < 0.001). Post-Tx LOXL2 levels, fibrosis-4 index, platelet counts, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2 binding protein levels, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were identified as independent predictive factors for post-SVR HCC development in the univariate analysis. The incidence of post-SVR HCC development was significantly higher in patients with post-Tx LOXL2 levels ≥ 2.08 ng/mL and AFP levels ≥ 5.0 ng/mL than in patients with elevated levels of either marker or with lower marker levels. Serum LOXL2 levels can serve as a predictive biomarker for HCC development after achieving SVR. The combination of serum LOXL2 and AFP levels provides robust risk stratification for HCC development after SVR, suggesting an enhanced surveillance strategy.

Clinical practice guidelines for molecular tumor marker, 2nd edition review part 2

In recent years, rapid advancement in gene/protein analysis technology has resulted in target molecule identification that may be useful in cancer treatment. Therefore, "Clinical Practice Guidelines for Molecular Tumor Marker, Second Edition" was published in Japan in September 2021. These guidelines were established to align the clinical usefulness of external diagnostic products with the evaluation criteria of the Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency. The guidelines were scoped for each tumor, and a clinical questionnaire was developed based on a serious clinical problem. This guideline was based on a careful review of the evidence obtained through a literature search, and recommendations were identified following the recommended grades of the Medical Information Network Distribution Services (Minds). Therefore, this guideline can be a tool for cancer treatment in clinical practice. We have already reported the review portion of "Clinical Practice Guidelines for Molecular Tumor Marker, Second Edition" as Part 1. Here, we present the English version of each part of the Clinical Practice Guidelines for Molecular Tumor Marker, Second Edition.

VFMAP predicted hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis C who were treated with direct-acting antiviral and achieved sustained virologic response

PURPOSE

Risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain unclear in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) who achieve sustained virological response (SVR) after direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. This study investigated the usefulness of the VFMAP scoring system for predicting the development of HCC in these patients.

METHODS

This study included 358 patients with HCV who achieved SVR after DAA treatment. The VFMAP system defines and scores cutoff values for virtual touch quantification (VTQ), fasting plasma glucose, sex, age, and alpha-fetoprotein values. All patients were grouped according to their VFMAP scores as follows: 0 or 1 point, low-score group; 2 or 3 points, intermediate-score group; and 4 or 5 points, high-score group.

RESULTS

Nineteen patients developed HCC. The median follow-up duration was 3.2 (1.5-4.0) years. The respective cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 12, 24, and 36 months were as follows in different subgroups: all study patients, 3.0%, 4.8%, and 6.6%; low-score group, 0.96%, 0.96%, and 0.96%; intermediate-score group, 2.6%, 4.5%, and 6.8%; and high-score group, 10.0%, 15.3%, and 18.5%. The cumulative incidence rates of HCC in the high-score group were significantly higher than those in the low- and intermediate-score groups (p < 0.001 and < 0.05, respectively).

CONCLUSION

VFMAP accurately predicted the development of HCC in HCV patients who achieved SVR following treatment with DAAs.

Liver fibrosis estimated using extracellular volume fraction obtained from dual-energy CT as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained virologic response: A preliminary case-control study

PURPOSE

To assess hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after sustained virologic response (SVR) through clinical data analyses, including evaluation of liver fibrosis using the extracellular volume fraction (ECV) obtained from dual-energy computed tomography (DECT).

METHODS

Ninety-two patients (52 men and 40 women; mean age, 69.9 years) with hepatitis C virus infection after SVR underwent DECT of the liver (3-minute equilibrium-phase images) between January 2020 and March 2022. The ECV was calculated by measuring iodine density; fibrous markers, including ECV, fibrosis-4 index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, and platelet count, were statistically analyzed (p < 0.05). The risk factors associated with HCC were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

The ECV (26.1 ± 4.6 %) in patients with HCC (n,21) was significantly larger than the ECV (20.7 ± 3.3 %) in patients without HCC (n = 71) (p < 0.001). The cutoff value for the ECV was 24.3 %. The area under the operating characteristic curve of the ECV was 0.857, which was higher than that of the serum fibrosis markers. Older age, SVR achieved with interferon, alpha-fetoprotein level (>5 ng/mL), advanced fibrosis before treatment (>F3), and ECV were associated with HCC according to the univariate analysis. Multivariate analyses showed that ECV was the only factor independently associated with HCC (odds ratio 0.619, 95 % confidence interval 0.482-0.795, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Liver fibrosis estimated using ECV can be a predictive marker in patients with HCC after SVR.

FIB‑4 index and serum α‑fetoprotein are useful predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis B patients with nucleos(t)ide analogs therapy

Current antiviral therapies cannot achieve eradication of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and can reduce but not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic HBV infection. The present study aimed to identify the risk factors for HCC development by analyzing nucleoside analogue (NA)-treated patients as a retrospective cohort using fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4 index) as a non-invasive fibrosis marker. A total of 260 patients with HBV receiving NAs without a history of HCC between January 2001 and January 2021 were included in the present study. The incidence of HCC in patients with HBV during NA therapy and the factors contributing to HCC occurrence were identified using clinical characteristics and blood test results. Among the 260 patients, 40 patients (15.4%) developed HCC. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that age [hazard ratio (HR), 1.03; P=0.045], male sex (HR, 3.14; P<0.01) and FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment <1.95 (HR, 4.35; P<0.01) correlated with the incidence of HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment >1.95 was significantly higher compared with that in patients with FIB-4 index ≤1.95 (P<0.01). Multivariate analysis in patients in which serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level at 6 months after NA treatment was measured showed that FIB-4 index >1.95 (HR, 8.27; P=0.014) and serum AFP level >4 ng/ml (HR, 4.26; P=0.033) contributed to HCC occurrence. FIB-4 index at 6 months after NA treatment and serum AFP levels at 6 months after NA treatment were predictors for the development of HCC in patients with HBV during NA treatment. Further study of hepatocarcinogenesis during NA with a longer follow-up period and larger numbers of participants is required.

Machine learning for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development after the eradication of hepatitis C virus with antivirals

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Accurate risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) is necessary for optimal surveillance. We aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC after achieving an SVR in individual patients.

METHODS

In this multicenter cohort study, 1742 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved an SVR were enrolled. Five ML models were developed including DeepSurv, gradient boosting survival analysis, random survival forest (RSF), survival support vector machine, and a conventional Cox proportional hazard model. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel' c-index and was externally validated in an independent cohort (977 patients).

RESULTS

During the mean observation period of 5.4 years, 122 patients developed HCC (83 in the derivation cohort and 39 in the external validation cohort). The RSF model showed the best discrimination ability using seven parameters at the achievement of an SVR with a c-index of 0.839 in the external validation cohort and a high discriminative ability when the patients were categorized into three risk groups (P <0.001). Furthermore, this RSF model enabled the generation of an individualized predictive curve for HCC occurrence for each patient with an app available online.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and externally validated an RSF model with good predictive performance for the risk of HCC after an SVR. The application of this novel model is available on the website. This model could provide the data to consider an effective surveillance method. Further studies are needed to make recommendations for surveillance policies tailored to the medical situation in each country.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

A novel prediction model for HCC occurrence in patients after hepatitis C virus eradication was developed using machine learning algorithms. This model, using seven commonly measured parameters, has been shown to have a good predictive ability for HCC development and could provide a personalized surveillance system.

Simple new clinical score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained viral response with direct-acting antivirals

The time point of the most precise predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after viral eradication with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is unclear. In this study we developed a scoring system that can accurately predict the occurrence of HCC using data from the optimal time point. A total of 1683 chronic hepatitis C patients without HCC who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) with DAA therapy were split into a training set (999 patients) and a validation set (684 patients). The most accurate predictive scoring system to estimate HCC incidence was developed using each of the factors at baseline, end of treatment, and SVR at 12 weeks (SVR12). Multivariate analysis identified diabetes, the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and the α-fetoprotein level as independent factors at SVR12 that contributed to HCC development. A prediction model was constructed with these factors that ranged from 0 to 6 points. No HCC was observed in the low-risk group. Five-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 1.9% in the intermediate-risk group and 15.3% in the high-risk group. The prediction model at SVR12 most accurately predicted HCC development compared with other time points. This simple scoring system combining factors at SVR12 can accurately evaluate HCC risk after DAA treatment.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in patients cured of chronic hepatitis C: Minimal steatosis

BACKGROUND

Successful treatment of hepatitis C reduces liver inflammation and fibrosis; however, patients remain at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIMS

To identify risk factors for new-onset HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C.

METHODS

Imaging, histological, and clinical data on patients whose first HCC was diagnosed >12 months of post-SVR were analyzed. Histology of 20 nontumor tissues was analyzed in a blinded manner using the Knodel/Ishak/HAI system for necroinflammation and fibrosis/cirrhosis stage and the Brunt system for steatosis/steatohepatitis. Factors associated with post-SVR HCC were identified by comparison with HALT-C participants who did not develop post-SVR HCC.

RESULTS

Hepatocellular carcinoma was diagnosed in 54 patients (45 M/9F), a median of 6 years of post-SVR [interquartile range (IQR) =1.4-10y] at a median age of 61 years (IQR, 59-67). Approximately one-third lacked cirrhosis, and only 11% had steatosis on imaging. The majority (60%) had no steatosis/steatohepatitis in histopathology. The median HAI score was 3 (1.25-4), indicating mild necroinflammation. In a multivariable logistic regression model, post-SVR HCC was positively associated with non-Caucasian race (p = 0.03), smoking (p = 0.03), age > 60 years at HCC diagnosis (p = 0.03), albumin<3.5 g/dL (p = 0.02), AST/ALT>1 (p = 0.05), and platelets <100 × 103 cells/μL (p < 0.001). Alpha fetoprotein ≥4.75 ng/mL had 90% specificity and 71% sensitivity for HCC occurrence. Noncirrhotic patients had larger tumors (p = 0.002) and a higher prevalence of vascular invasion (p = 0.016) than cirrhotic patients.

CONCLUSIONS

One-third of patients with post-SVR HCC did not have liver cirrhosis; most had no steatosis/steatohepatitis. Hepatocellular carcinomas were more advanced in noncirrhotic patients. Results support AFP as a promising marker of post-SVR HCC risk.

Response to antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in Japan: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

In Japan, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer mortality and hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of HCC. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies evaluating patient response to antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C on the risk of HCC occurrence in Japan. Articles were searched using terms determined a priori through PubMed, screened by title and abstract, and selected by full-text assessment according to criteria determined a priori, including HCC occurrence in response to interferon (IFN)-based or IFN-free therapy, Japanese study, and 2 or more years of follow-up. We excluded studies on HCC recurrence. We calculated the pooled estimate of the crude incidence rate ratio with data from the selected studies using the person-years method with Poisson regression model and pooled estimate of the hazard ratio adjusted for potential confounders reported by the studies using a random effects model. A total of 26 studies were identified, all of which examined only IFN-based therapy as a result of the selection process. The pooled estimate (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 25 studies was 0.37 (0.33-0.43) for sustained virologic response (SVR) and 1.70 (1.61-1.80) for non-SVR for the HCC incidence rate per 100 person-years, and 0.22 (0.19-0.26) for the incidence rate ratio (SVR vs. non-SVR). The pooled estimate of the hazard ratio (95% CI) of HCC incidence adjusted for potential confounders of 8 studies was 0.25 (0.19-0.34). SVR to interferon therapy for chronic hepatitis C reduces the risk of HCC occurrence.

Significance of pretreatment alpha-fetoprotein in patients with compensated severe fibrosis after hepatitis C viral eradication

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate the factors associated with improvement of liver functional reserve after sustained virological response using interferon-free, direct-acting antiviral combination treatment in patients with compensated, severe fibrosis.

METHODS

Between September 2014 and April 2020, 492 patients received direct-acting antiviral combination treatment in our hospital. Among them, 173 patients who had severe fibrosis based on a fibrosis-4 index ≥3.25, showed sustained virological response after treatment. We investigated the dynamic change in albumin-bilirubin score and the baseline factors associated with its improvement, 48 weeks after treatment.

RESULTS

The baseline significant factors associated with albumin-bilirubin ≦ -0.5 were lower albumin (HR: 15.625, 95% CI: 4.273-58.824, P < .001), higher hepatitis C virus RNA (HR: 4.995, 95% CI: 1.882-13.260, P = .001), and higher alpha-fetoprotein (HR: 1.033, 95% CI: 1.011-1.055, P = .003). Patients with alpha-fetoprotein ≧10 ng/mL showed significant improvement of albumin-bilirubin score from baseline to 48 weeks after treatment compared to those with alpha-fetoprotein <10 ng/mL (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline serum alpha-fetoprotein might be a predictive factor for improvement of liver function after sustained virological response in patients with severe fibrosis.

Factors linked to hepatocellular carcinoma development beyond 10 years after viral eradication in patients with hepatitis C virus

The risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients whose duration of sustained virological response (SVR) is over 10 years are not fully understood. We compared the incidence of HCC development within and beyond 10 years after SVR. A total of 1384 patients who achieved SVR (714, interferon-based therapy; 670, direct-acting antiviral therapy) were enrolled. Factors associated with HCC development were analysed within and beyond 10 years after SVR by Cox proportional hazards models. The annual incidence rates of HCC development were 0.568% within 10 years after SVR and 0.190% beyond 10 years, and there was a significant difference in the incidence of HCC development between the 2 periods (p = 0.0242, log-rank test). Male gender (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.930; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.508-5.693, p = 0.0015), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score &gt; 3.25 (aHR 4.364; 95%CI 2.206-8.633, p &lt; 0.0001) and alpha-fetoprotein ≥5.0 ng/ml (aHR 2.381; 95%CI 1.325-4.280, p = 0.0037) were independently associated with HCC development within 10 years after SVR. Male gender (aHR 4.702; 95%CI 1.366-16.190, p = 0.0141), presence of diabetes mellitus (aHR 2.933; 95%CI 1.240-6.935, p = 0.0143) and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) ≥ 56 U/l (aHR 4.157; 95%CI 1.400-12.350, p = 0.0103) were independently associated with HCC development beyond 10 years after SVR. The incidence of HCC development beyond 10 years after SVR was very low, and the associated factors were mainly extrahepatic, including DM and elevated GGT. Annual routine check-ups with abdominal ultrasound may be sufficient for such patients. (242 words).

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained virologic response in hepatitis C virus patients without advanced liver fibrosis

AIM

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained virologic response (SVR) has been observed even in hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients without advanced liver fibrosis. Identifying predictors for HCC incidence in patients without advanced liver fibrosis will enable efficient post-SVR HCC surveillance. This study aimed to develop a scoring system to predict the incidence of HCC after SVR in HCV patients without advanced liver fibrosis.

METHODS

A total of 1682 HCV patients without advanced liver fibrosis (defined as Fibrosis-4 index <3.25) with no history of HCC who initiated direct-acting antiviral treatment between September 2014 and October 2020 at 26 institutions, and achieved SVR24, were included. We divided 1682 patients into training (1122) and validation (560) cohorts.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, baseline age ≥ 65 years (p = 0.030), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels at SVR24 ≥ 30 U/l (p = 0.001), and α-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at SVR24 ≥ 5.0 ng/ml (p = 0.001) were independent predictors for HCC incidence in the training cohort. We developed a scoring system to predict HCC incidence after SVR24 using these three factors (1 point was added for each factor). The cumulative HCC incidence rates at 5 years were 7.1% in patients who scored 2 or 3, and no patients developed HCC in those who scored 0 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Our scoring system using the three factors of baseline age, ALT levels at SVR, and AFP levels at SVR is useful for post-SVR HCC surveillance of patients without advanced liver fibrosis.

Direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus-infected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients has a high risk of recurrence. Although eradication of HCV is expected to reduce this risk, the risk in patients with a history of HCC may be high after treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs).

AIM

To determine the risk factors for HCC recurrence in patients with HCV and a history of HCC.

METHODS

The risk of HCC recurrence in patients with a history of HCC and/or of HCC occurrence in patients without a history of HCC after DAA therapy was retrospectively analyzed in 311 HCV patients treated at our institution and several neighboring hospitals. The frequency and predictors of HCC recurrence/ occurrence after DAA treatment were included in these analyses. The clinical course of HCC before and after DAA treatment was also evaluated.

RESULTS

HCV patients with a history of HCC were older and had greater progression of liver fibrosis and diabetes than patients without a history of HCC. Median recurrence-free survival (RFS) was 1092 d in patients with a history of HCC, and post-DAA HCC recurrence/occurrence was observed in 29 patients (53.7%) with and 5 (1.9%) without a history of HCC over 6 years (P < 0.001). RFS in patients with a history of HCC did not differ significantly before and after DAA treatment. The frequency of HCC recurrence/occurrence in patients with a history of HCC was lower after than before DAA treatment. Multivariate analysis showed that the incidence rate of HCC recurrence/occurrence before DAA treatment was the only independent predictor of HCC recurrence/occurrence after DAA treatment. Liver function was well preserved and clinical course was good in patients with HCC recurrence/occurrence after DAA therapy.

CONCLUSION

DAA therapy in patients infected with HCV is also effective in patients with a history of HCC. Curative treatment for HCC is desirable before DAA therapy. The frequency of HCC recurrence/occurrence before DAA therapy was associated with a significantly increased risk of HCC recurrence after DAA therapy. Careful observation after DAA therapy is required in patients with a history of HCC.

Incidence and risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C who achieved a sustained virological response through direct‐acting antiviral agents among the working population in Japan

Background and Aim

The development of hepatocarcinogenesis after a sustained virological response (SVR) remains an important issue affecting the balance between treatment and occupational life of workers with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Japan. Here, we aimed to evaluate the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) reducing effect and risk factors for developing HCC after SVR in patients treated with direct‐acting antiviral agents (DAAs) among the working population.

Methods

We studied 2579 working patients with chronic HCV infection who achieved SVR after antiviral treatment. We compared the difference in the cumulative incidence of post‐SVR HCC between the interferon (IFN)‐based n = 1615 and DAA (n = 964) groups. The risk factors for post‐SVR HCC development were determined in the DAA group.

Results

After propensity score matching (n = 644 in each group), the HCC development rates were not significantly different between the groups (P = 0.186). Multivariate Cox regression and the cutoff values determined by the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses revealed that age ≥61 years, diabetes, lower serum albumin levels <4.0 g/dL at 24 weeks after the end of treatment (EOT), and higher serum α‐fetoprotein levels ≥4.1 ng/mL at 24 weeks after the EOT were associated with the development of HCC.

Conclusion

The HCC suppressing effect after SVR through DAA treatment is equivalent to that of IFN treatment in patients in the working population. Intensive follow‐up is required after SVR with DAA treatment in Japanese workers with these risk factors to ensure the promotion of health and employment support.

Trajectories of serum α-fetoprotein and intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma outcomes after transarterial chemoembolization: A longitudinal, retrospective, multicentre, cohort study

BACKGROUND

α-fetoprotein (AFP) response has been proven a key tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its definition remains controversial. This study aims to characterize AFP trajectories after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and examine its impact on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

This longitudinal, multicenter, retrospective, cohort study examined data from the electronic medical record system of four hospitals in China between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2016. A latent class growth mixed model was applied to distinguish potential AFP dynamic changing trajectories. The multivariable Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for overall survival. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted analyses were performed to eliminate unmeasured confounders through marginal structural models.

FINDINGS

A total of 881 patients, who had intermediate-stage HCC with AFP repeatedly measured 3 to 10 times, were included in the study. Three distinct trajectories were identified using the latent class growth mixture model: high-rising (25.7%; n = 226), low-stable (58.7%; n = 517), and sharp-falling (AFP serological response, 15.6%; n = 138). Compared with the low-stable class, the aHRs for death were 5.13 (3.71, 7.10) and 0.52 (0.33, 0.81) for the high-rising and sharp-falling class, adjusted by gender, baseline major tumor size, intrahepatic lesions number, and logAFP(smooth). Furthermore, high-rising class had a significantly higher HR in the subgroup of female patients (10.60, 95%CI: 6.29, 17.86), age<55 (6.78, 95%CI: 4.79, 9.59) and Child-Pugh class B (23.01, 95%CI:8.07, 65.63) (P = 0.014, 0.046 and 0.033 for interaction, respectively). Trajectories of AFP had the highest relative importance of each parameter to survival, including largest tumor size, intrahepatic lesions number, Child-Pugh class, and baseline AFP.

INTERPRETATION

AFP trajectories were associated with overall survival for intermediate-stage HCC after TACE.

FUNDING

The Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (Nos. 2018J01352, 2016J01576 and 2016J01586); the Science and Technology Innovation Joint Foundation of Fujian Province (Nos. 2017Y9125).

Serum growth differentiation factor 15 predicts hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence after hepatitis C virus elimination

BACKGROUND

After hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, patients should be followed up due to risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15) is a cytokine induced by mitochondrial dysfunction or oxidative stress. Aim To evaluate the prognostic value of GDF15 for HCC occurrence after HCV elimination.

METHODS

We measured GDF15 levels in stored serum from patients with chronic HCV infection without a history of HCC who had achieved sustained virological response with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). The patients were randomly divided into derivation (n = 964) and validation (n = 642) cohorts.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, serum GDF15 levels were higher in those with HCC occurrence after DAA treatment than in those without. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed baseline GDF15 (>1350 pg/mL, HR 2.54), AFP (>5 ng/mL, HR 2.00), and the FIB-4 index (>3.25, HR 2.69) to be independent risk factors for HCC. Scoring based on GDF15, AFP and the FIB-4 index stratified HCC occurrence risk. In the validation cohort, the cumulative HCC occurrence rate at 3 years was 0.64%, 3.27% and 15.3% in low-score (N = 171), medium-score (N = 300) and high-score (N = 166) groups, respectively. In the total cohort, scoring divided patients with a FIB-4 index ≤3.25, whose HCC occurrence rate was 2.0% at 3 years, into medium-score and low-score groups with HCC occurrence rates at 3 years of 3.76% and 0.24%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum GDF15 predicts de novo HCC occurrence. Scoring using GDF15, AFP, and the FIB-4 index can predict de novo HCC occurrence risk after HCV elimination.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma using age and liver stiffness on transient elastography after hepatitis C virus eradication

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a useful tool for assessing advanced liver fibrosis, an important risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatitis C (HCV) eradication. This study aimed to clarify the non-invasive factors associated with HCC following sustained virological response (SVR) and to identify the low-risk group. 567 patients without history of HCC who achieved SVR at 24 weeks (SVR24) after IFN-free treatment were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative incidence of HCC and the risk factors were examined using pre-treatment and SVR24 data. The median observation period was 50.2 months. Thirty cases of HCC were observed, and the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 5.9%. In multivariate analysis, significant pre-treatment factors were age ≥ 71 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.402) and LSM ≥ 9.2 kPa (HR: 6.328); SVR24 factors were age ≥ 71 years (HR: 2.689) and LSM ≥ 8.4 kPa (HR: 6.642). In cases with age < 71 years and LSM < 8.4 kPa at the time of SVR24, the 4-year cumulative incidence of HCC was as low as 1.1%. Both pre-treatment LSM (≥ 9.2 kPa) and SVR24 LSM (≥ 8.4 kPa) and age (≥ 71 years) are useful in predicting the risk of HCC after SVR with IFN-free treatment. Identification of low-risk individuals may improve the efficiency of follow-up.

Serum α-fetoprotein level at treatment completion is a useful predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence more than one year after hepatitis C virus eradication by direct-acting antiviral treatment

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have recently been developed to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and interferon-free DAA treatment has improved liver function of HCV patients. The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence following HCV eradication has been previously reported, but HCC may have been missed following imaging diagnosis before DAA administration in previous studies. Therefore, the present study aimed to identify definite predictors of HCC occurrence ≥1 year after DAA treatment. Among 956 patients receiving DAAs for HCV infection, 567 patients who achieved sustained virologic response with no history of HCC treatment were enrolled in this study between September 2014 and July 2021. The incidence of HCC in HCV-infected patients ≥1 year following DAA treatment, and the predictors contributing to HCC occurrence were identified using clinical characteristics and blood test results. In the present study, 25 patients developed HCC. The incidence of HCC was 1.4%, 3.2%, 4.9% and 6.8% at 2, 3, 4 and 5 years, respectively, from the end of treatment with DAAs. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed serum α-fetoprotein level at end of treatment (EOT-AFP) >3.8 ng/ml ≥1 year following treatment with DAAs (HR, 9.7; p < .0001) as an independent factor that may contribute to HCC occurrence following DAA treatment. In conclusion, serum EOT-AFP level may serve an important role in determining the risk of HCC occurrence ≥1 year after DAA treatment. Regular examinations are required even if serum EOT-AFP level is low at treatment completion.

Mortality of inactive hepatitis B virus carriers in Japan is similar to that of the general population

AIMS

Data on the long-term outcomes of individuals with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection who are hepatitis envelope antigen (HBeAg)-negative inactive carriers (ICs) are limited due to small numbers. We compared the long-term prognosis of well-defined ICs with that of age- and gender-matched general population controls.

METHODS

A total of 526 HBeAg-negative patients who demonstrated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level ≤40 U/L and HBV DNA level ≤4.3 log IU/ml at least three times within 1 year after the start of follow-up were enrolled as ICs. Inactive carriers were divided into two groups: Group A (n = 332), whose ALT level was ≤30 U/L and HBV DNA level was ≤3.3 log IU/ml, and Group B (remaining patients, n = 194). We determined the long-term prognosis of ICs and compared it with that of general population controls. We also analyzed factors associated with hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) clearance and phase transition in ICs.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in hepatocellular carcinoma development or all-cause, liver-related, or non-liver-related mortality between Groups A and B. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality between ICs and the general population. Low HBsAg level (≤3.0 log IU/ml) and the presence of fatty liver were associated with HBsAg clearance and high alpha-fetoprotein level was associated with phase transition.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term prognosis of well-defined ICs was similar to that of general population controls. In addition, the ICs had a high HBsAg clearance rate and low phase transition rate.

Usefulness of serial FIB-4 score measurement for predicting the risk of hepatocarcinogenesis after hepatitis C virus eradication

OBJECTIVES

There is insufficient information to evaluate the correlation between fibrosis regression and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after hepatitis C virus eradication. We analyzed serial changes in fibrosis (FIB)-4 scores after sustained virological response (SVR).

METHODS

The subjects were 717 patients who achieved SVR by interferon (IFN)-based therapy (IFN Group) and 635 patients who achieved SVR by direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy (DAA Group). We performed propensity score matching because the baseline characteristics differed between the IFN and DAA groups, and then applied inverse probability weighting (IPW). We compared the changes in FIB-4 scores between the IFN and DAA groups. We also investigated the dynamics of FIB-4 scores, which are useful for predicting hepatocarcinogenesis.

RESULTS

Using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and an IPW-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, we identified an FIB-4 cutoff of 1.50 for predicting hepatocarcinogenesis. The percentages of patients in the IFN and DAA groups who demonstrated IPW-adjusted cumulative reduction and increase in FIB-4 scores indicated no significant differences. No HCC developed during the 5-year follow-up period in 547 of the 1352 patients whose FIB-4 score was <1.50 at SVR or improved from ≥1.50 to <1.50 during follow-up. Only one patient developed HCC, at 7.3 years; this individual had diabetes mellitus and excessive alcohol intake.

CONCLUSION

There was no difference in FIB-4 score reduction between the IFN and DAA groups. Patients whose FIB-4 scores improved to <1.50 or remained at <1.50 during follow-up after SVR had extremely low hepatocarcinogenesis rates.

Should we continue surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma and gastroesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and variceal bleeding are among the most common causes of liver-related mortality in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced cirrhosis. Current guidelines recommend HCC and gastroesophageal varices (GEV) surveillance in patients with HCV infection and cirrhosis. However, since the recent introduction of direct-acting antivirals, most patients with cirrhosis are now cured of their chronic HCV infection. As virological cure is considered to substantially reduce the risk of cirrhosis-related complications, this review discusses the current literature concerning the surveillance of HCC and GEV in patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis with a focus on the setting following sustained virological response.

Impact of switching to tenofovir alafenamide fumarate in patients with entecavir-treated chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), a new tenofovir prodrug, has been developed to circumvent the less favorable safety profile of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). We investigated reductions in hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels in patients with HBV infection who received continuous entecavir (ETV) monotherapy or sequential therapy with ETV and TAF.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 286 patients who were divided into two groups: continuous ETV monotherapy (ETV group, n = 168) and sequential therapy with ETV and TAF (ETV-TAF group, n = 108). Factors associated with a 90% reduction in HBsAg levels were analyzed by a Cox proportional hazards model using a time-dependent covariate in both groups.

RESULTS

In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, the ETV-TAF group [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.750; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.265-3.405; P = 0.0038] and BMI ≤ 25.0 kg/m2 (aHR 0.520, 95% CI, 0.308-0.875; P = 0.0139) demonstrated a 90% reduction in HBsAg levels. HBsAg levels of patients in the TAF phase in the ETV-TAF group showed greater yearly percent reductions than those in the ETV group and those in the ETV phase in the ETV-TAF group (P = 0.0361 and P = 0.0022, respectively, Steel-Dwass test).

CONCLUSION

HBsAg levels decreased more rapidly after patients switched from ETV to TAF. Switching to TAF may be an effective treatment option to reduce HBsAg levels.

Prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in patients with hepatitis C in the era of direct-acting anti-virals

BACKGROUND

Several factors associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence after sustained virological response (SVR) in patients with hepatitis C have been reported. However, few validation studies have been performed in the era of direct-acting anti-virals (DAAs).

AIMS

To develop a prediction model for HCC occurrence after DAA-mediated SVR and validate its usefulness.

METHODS

We analysed 2209 patients with SVR and without a history of HCC who initiated DAA treatment at 24 Japanese hospitals. These patients were divided into a training set (1473 patients) and a validation set (736 patients).

RESULTS

In the training set, multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that the baseline BMI (≥25.0 kg/m² , P = 0.024), baseline fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (≥3.25, P = 0.001), albumin level at SVR (<4.0 g/dL, P = 0.010) and alpha-foetoprotein level at SVR (≥5.0 ng/mL, P = 0.006) were significantly associated with HCC occurrence. We constructed a prediction model for HCC occurrence with these four factors (2 points were added for the FIB-4 index, and 1 point was added for each of the other three factors). Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis identified a score of 2 as the optimal cut-off value for the prediction model (divided into 0-1 and 2-5). In the validation set, the sensitivity and negative predictive value for HCC occurrence were 87.5% and 99.7%, respectively, at 2 years and 71.4% and 98.0%, respectively, at 3 years.

CONCLUSION

A prediction model combining these four factors contributes to an efficient surveillance strategy for HCC occurrence after DAA-mediated SVR.

Long-term outcomes of viral eradication in patients with hepatitis C virus infection and mild hepatic fibrosis

The impact of antiviral therapy on clinical outcomes in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and mild liver fibrosis (FIB-4 score <1.45) is not well understood. We aimed to clarify the impact of viral eradication on hepatocarcinogenesis and mortality in patients with mild fibrosis.The subjects were 657 patients who achieved sustained virologic response (SVR) (Clearance group) and 586 patients who did not receive antiviral therapy or did not achieve SVR (No clearance group). We applied inverse probability weighting because the groups had different baseline characteristics. Multivariate proportional hazards models were used to analyse factors associated with hepatocarcinogenesis and mortality using a time-dependent covariate. In addition, we compared the mortality rate of the Clearance group stratified by age to the mortality rate of the general population.Clearance of HCV RNA was significantly associated with hepatocarcinogenesis and all-cause, liver-related and non-liver-related mortality (adjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence interval], 0.2653 [0.1147-0.6136, p = 0.0019], 0.3416 [0.2157-0.5409, p < 0.0001], 0.2474 [0.0802-0.8917, p = 0.0381] and 0.4118 [0.2449-0.6925, p = 0.0008], respectively). The Clearance group had significantly higher mortality than the general population matched by age, sex and follow-up duration (p < 0.0001). However, there were no significant differences between patients who achieved SVR before age 50 and the general population matched by age, sex and follow-up duration (p = 0.1570). HCV eradication in patients with mild fibrosis reduces liver-related and non-liver-related mortality. If HCV is eradicated before age 50, prognosis is likely be similar to that of the age-matched and sex-matched general population. (249 words).

Serum alpha-fetoprotein increases prior to fibrosis resolution in a patient with acute liver failure

A 78-year-old woman who was diagnosed with acute liver failure due to an undetermined cause presented with liver atrophy. Coagulopathy was normalized at 35 days of hospitalization, although atrophy in the liver persisted. During the observation period, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) bi-modally increased at 36 and 377 days. Around the second peak of AFP, the liver volume was regained within the normal range. Fucosylated AFP was found at the first peak but not at the second peak. Cytokines/chemokines were simultaneously evaluated, and the results were evaluated using PANTHER ( http://www.pantherdb.org/ ). Although transaminase and prothrombin time were within the normal range, cytokines/chemokines associated with angiogenesis and inflammation increased prior to the second peak of AFP. Our study suggests that the first peak of AFP occurs in response to acute insult, while the second peak may be associated with the resolution of liver fibrosis. The present case provides new insights into the mechanism of AFP elevation.

Highly sensitive Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of α-fetoprotein is a predictive marker for hepatocarcinogenesis in long-term observation of patients with chronic liver disease

Highly sensitive Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of α-fetoprotein (hs-AFP-L3) is a specific marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and has been reliable in cases with a low serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level. However, the biomarkers that contribute to hepatocarcinogenesis during the long-term observation are not yet clear. The present study reported the clinical utility of hs-AFP-L3 in the long-term observation of patients with chronic liver disease. The subjects were 106 patients with chronic liver disease without HCC or a history of HCC treatment and who had been followed for >12 months. hs-AFP-L3 was measured using cryopreserved serum. The factors contributing to hepatocarcinogenesis were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses. The median observation period was 88 months (15-132 months). The cumulative incidence of HCC was 10.5% at 5 years and 19.6% at 10 years. The univariate analysis revealed that age ≥55 years old, platelet count ≤13.1x10⁴/µl, hyaluronic acid ≥80.8 ng/ml, alanine transaminase ≥47 U/l, AFP ≥6.3 ng/ml, hs-AFP-L3 ≥3.5% and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) ≥25 mAU/ml were significant factors. In the multivariate analysis, platelet count ≤13.1x10⁴/µl [hazard ratio (HR), 4.966; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.597-15.437; P=0.006] and hs-AFP-L3 ≥3.5% (HR, 5.450; 95% CI, 1.522-19.512; P=0.009) were extracted as significant factors contributing to hepatocarcinogenesis. In addition, for cases with AFP <20 ng/ml, a multivariate analysis revealed that hs-AFP-L3 ≥4.9% (HR, 11.608; 95% CI, 2.422-55.629; P=0.002) and DCP ≥25 mAU/ml (HR, 3.936; 95% CI, 1.088-14.231; P=0.037) were significant factors contributing to hepatocarcinogenesis. hs-AFP-L3 is a useful marker for predicting hepatocarcinogenesis in the long-term observation of patients with chronic liver disease.

AFP and eGFR are related to early and late recurrence of HCC following antiviral therapy

Background

An unexpected recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) sometimes occurs in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) after treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). However, the characteristics of patients with HCC recurrence may differ depending on time after DAA treatment. We aimed to identify risk factors related to HCC recurrence according to time after DAA treatment.

Methods

Of 1663 patients with HCV treated with a DAA, 199 patients had a previous history of HCC. We defined HCC recurrence within 1 year after DAA treatment as ‘early recurrence’, and recurrence more than 1 year after as ‘late recurrence’. The different risk factors between the early and late phases of HCC recurrence after the end of DAA therapy were investigated.

Results

Ninety-seven patients experienced HCC recurrence during the study period. Incidences of recurrence were 29.8, 41.0, and 53.4% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively, after the end of DAA therapy. Multivariate analysis identified post-treatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) as an independent factor contributing to HCC recurrence in the early phase (hazard ratio, 1.056; 95% confidence interval, 1.026–1.087, p < 0.001) and post-treatment estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.96–0.99, p = 0.032) as a predictor of HCC recurrence in the late phase.

Conclusion

Patients with higher post-treatment AFP in the early phase and those with lower post-treatment eGFR in the late phase had a high risk of HCC recurrence. The risk factors associated with HCC recurrence after DAA treatment were different between the early and late phases.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08401-7.

Abnormal fucosylation of alpha-fetoprotein in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

AIM

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a risk factor for nonvirus-related hepatocellular carcinoma, which is increasing in prevalence. The aim of this study was to clarify the clinical application of fucosylated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP-L3) in the process of nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) disease development.

METHODS

Serum samples from 115 diabetes mellitus (DM), 36 NAFL, and 119 NASH patients were analyzed for AFP-L3 expression using raw data of a micro total analysis system. These data were then compared with the clinical characteristics of the patients. A validation study was also undertaken with 55 samples (17 NAFL and 38 NASH).

RESULTS

Trace amounts of AFP-L3 were detected in 3.5%, 16.7%, and 58.0% of patients with DM, NAFL, and NASH, respectively. The odds ratio of AFP-L3 positivity for the diagnosis of NASH in multivariate analysis was 9.81 (95% confidence interval, 3.77-25.5). The rates in patients without fibrosis or with stage 1, stage 2, stage 3, and stage 4 fibrosis were 14.7%, 31.3%, 63.0%, 86.2%, and 100%, respectively. The rates were significantly increased according to the advancement of liver fibrosis (p < 0.001); however, no difference in the positive rate of AFP-L3 was observed between patients with and without fatty livers and between patients with normal and abnormal transaminase. The same relationship was also observed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Abnormal fucosylation of AFP occurred in patients with NASH, so it could be useful for the screening of NASH in patients with DM, as well as for the differential diagnosis of NASH and the evaluation of fibrosis.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma by Liver Stiffness Measurements Using Magnetic Resonance Elastography After Eradicating Hepatitis C Virus

INTRODUCTION

Liver fibrosis stage is one of the most important factors in stratifying the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We evaluated the usefulness of liver stiffness measured by magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) to stratify the risk of developing HCC in patients who underwent MRE before receiving direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and subsequently achieved sustained virological response (SVR).

METHODS

A total of 537 consecutive patients with persistent hepatitis C virus who underwent initial MRE before DAA therapy and achieved SVR were enrolled. Factors associated with HCC development were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Albumin-bilirubin score ≥ -2.60 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 6.303), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score >3.25 (aHR 7.676), and MRE value ≥4.5 kPa (aHR 13.190) were associated with HCC development according to a univariate Cox proportional hazards model. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed that an MRE value ≥4.5 kPa (aHR 7.301) was the only factor independently associated with HCC development. Even in patients with an FIB-4 score >3.25, the cumulative incidence rate of HCC development in those with an MRE value <4.5 kPa was significantly lower than that in patients with an MRE value ≥4.5 kPa.

DISCUSSION

Liver stiffness measured by MRE before DAA therapy was an excellent marker for predicting subsequent HCC development in patients with hepatitis C virus infection who achieved SVR. The same results were observed in patients with high FIB-4 scores.

Change in γ-glutamyl transpeptidase activity as a useful tool in identifying a group of patients with elevated risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development after DAA treatment of chronic hepatitis C

Aim of the study

Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence will be diminishing due to use of direct acting antiviral agents (DAA), but there is still constant risk for HCC development. Elevated serum g-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) activity is associated with increased risk of liver cancer. In our study we tried to determine whether change in GGT activity may be useful in identifying patients with elevated risk of HCC development after DAA treatment.

Material and methods

The study population consisted of 111 patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) treated with DAA. Laboratory tests [alanine aminotransferase (ALT), GGT, a-fetoprotein (AFP)] and liver stiffness measurement (using FibroScan) were performed at the beginning and at the end of therapy.

Results

Pre-treatment ALT activity, GGT activity and AFP concentration in patients with CHC were directly associated with the stage of liver fibrosis. Elimination of HCV after DAA treatment caused significant reduction in serum GGT activity and was not associated with pre-treatment liver fibrosis. AFP concentration was significantly lower after treatment. It was observed regardless of pre-treatment AFP concentration, but the largest reduction was demonstrated in the group of patients with advanced fibrosis. In multivariate analysis there was no significant difference in GGT activity after treatment only in patients with pre-treatment normal AFP concentration and advanced liver fibrosis.

Conclusions

Patients who after achieving a sustained virological response (SVR) did not lower both AFP concentration and GGT activity may have higher risk of HCC development. Special monitoring may be required in patients with advanced liver fibrosis and normal AFP concentration before treatment.

Sex difference in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antiviral therapy in patients with HCV infection

Sex differences in the predictors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy was investigated. DAA therapy was given to 1438 (663 male, 775 female) patients. Sex differences in the HCC development rate and the factors contributing to HCC development after DAA therapy were investigated. Male patients had a significantly higher cumulative HCC incidence (log-rank test, P =  .007). On multivariate analysis, the fibrosis-4 index (HR = 1.11; 95%CI, 1.042-1.202, P =  .002) and posttreatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) (HR = 1.11; 95%CI, 1.046-1.197, P  =  .001) were found to be independent factors that contributed to HCC development following DAA therapy in female patients, whereas only posttreatment AFP (HR  =  1.090; 95%CI, 1.024-1.160, P  = .007) was an independent factor in male patients. The optimal posttreatment AFP cut-off values were set based on receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. The optimal posttreatment AFP cut-off value was much higher in females (6.0 ng/mL) than in male (3.5 ng/mL) patients. In conclusion both in male and female patients, posttreatment AFP was an independent predictor of HCC development after DAA therapy. However, the cut-off values differed between the sexes. In male patients, HCC could be seen in patients with relatively low posttreatment AFP levels; more careful observation might be needed in such patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antiviral hepatitis C virus therapy: A debate near the end

Direct acting antivirals (DAAs) have revolutionized the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, achieving high rates (≥ 95%) of sustained virological response, with a good safety profile and high compliance rates. Consequently, it had been expected that viral clearance will reduce morbidity and mortality rates, as well as the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, since 2016, concerns have been raised over an unexpected high rate of HCC occurrence and recurrence after DAA therapy, which led to an avalanche of studies with contradictory results. We aimed to review the most recent and relevant articles regarding the risk of HCC after DAA treatment and identify the associated risk factors.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in treated chronic hepatitis C patients-Relationship to smoking and alcohol

Background and Aim

The purpose of this study was to identify lifestyle risk factors, such as cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption, in relation to the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among chronic hepatitis C patients who have achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR).

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted between 2014 and 2017 using self-administered questionnaires and medical information at two tertiary hospitals in Osaka, Japan. Study subjects were chronic hepatitis C patients who had achieved SVR without HCC following antiviral treatment that was completed more than 1 year earlier. A logistic regression model was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the development of post-SVR HCC for each factor.

Results

Of 202 participants, 18 patients were diagnosed with post-SVR HCC. After considering potential confounders, former drinkers at the time of SVR (OR, 9.51; 95% CI, 1.08-83.90) and patients with a history of gastric or duodenal ulcer (OR, 4.14; 95% CI, 1.37-12.46) were significantly associated with HCC. In addition, among patients with severe fibrosis, current smokers at the time of SVR had an increased OR for HCC compared with never smokers, with marginal significance (OR, 5.61; 95% CI, 0.97-32.63).

Conclusions

In chronic hepatitis C patients with severe fibrosis, continuing smoking after achieving SVR could be a risk factor for post-SVR HCC. The relationship between gastric or duodenal ulcer history and post-SVR HCC should be investigated further.

JSH Guidelines for the Management of Hepatitis C Virus Infection, 2019 Update; Protective Effect of Antiviral Therapy against Hepatocarcinogenesis

The Drafting Committee for Hepatitis Management Guidelines established by the Japan Society of Hepatology (JSH) drafted the first version of the clinical practice guidelines for the management of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in 2012. Since then, we have been publishing updates as new drugs for hepatitis C become available and new indications for existing drugs are added. The new approval of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir prompted us to publish the seventh version of the guidelines in Japanese in March 2019. We also published the first English-language version of the JSH guidelines in 2013 and English versions of updates made to the Japanese-language guidelines in 2014 and 2016. In 2020, the committee has decided to publish a new English version, covering general information about treatment for hepatitis C, drugs used, recommended treatments for chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis, and special populations, such as patients who have renal impairment, are on dialysis, or have developed recurrence of hepatitis C after liver transplantation. Furthermore, the committee has released a separate publication covering the protective effect of antiviral therapy against hepatocarcinogenesis.

Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVES

Diabetes mellitus is a risk factor for non-B, non-C hepatocellular carcinoma (NBNC-HCC); however, the number of diabetes mellitus patients is too large to examine tumor occurrence with periodic imaging modalities. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop a novel strategy for early detection of NBNC-HCC in diabetes mellitus patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Ninety-three diabetes mellitus patients who had a single NBNC-HCC tumor less than 2 cm in diameter were selected from 6789 HCC patients. As controls, 172 tumor-free diabetes mellitus patients were enrolled. Characteristics were compared between groups. Furthermore, the efficacy of FIB4A, a new integrated score with FIB4 and alpha-fetoprotein, was analyzed as a marker for the early diagnosis of NBNC-HCC.

RESULTS

Age, percentage of males, alcohol consumption, total bilirubin, transaminases, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, FIB4 index, alpha-fetoprotein, and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin were higher in NBNC-HCC patients, whereas albumin and platelet counts were higher in the diabetes mellitus control group. Among these factors, the FIB4 index showed the highest odds ratio [OR: 20.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 9.60-41.7] followed by alpha-fetoprotein (OR: 12.8, 95% CI: 6.53-25.4). A newly developed score, FIB4A, showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.959) among the factors examined. The sensitivity was 86.2% at a Youden index cutoff (3.5) and it increased to 95.4%, while keeping high specificity (70.9%) when a cutoff of 2.5 was used.

CONCLUSION

FIB4A is a potential marker for early detection of NBNC-HCC in patients with diabetes mellitus. However, further studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Impact of the introduction of direct-acting anti-viral drugs on hepatocarcinogenesis: a prospective serial follow-up MRI study

BACKGROUND

We conducted a prospective study using gadolinium-ethoxybenzyl-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (Gd-EOB-MRI) to determine whether sustained virological response (SVR) by direct-acting anti-viral (DAA) drugs suppresses hepatocarcinogenesis in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.

AIM

To use serial Gd-EOB-MRI to assess the impact of DAAs on hepatocarcinogenesis.

METHODS

Between February 2008 and December 2018, 1083 consecutive patients with HCV infection underwent Gd-EOB-MRI. Of these, 719 patients were enrolled, including 210 patients in the 'Non-DAA group', who did not receive DAAs before the introduction of DAAs, and 509 patients in the 'DAA group', who achieved SVR after the introduction of DDAs. Factors associated with hepatocarcinogenesis were analysed by a Cox proportional hazard model. In addition, hepatocarcinogenesis was classified into two types, 'multistep' and 'de novo', on the basis of Gd-EOB-MRI findings. Factors associated with each type were analysed by Fine and Gray proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Hepatocarcinogenesis was observed in 67 of 719 (9.3%) patients. Factors associated with hepatocarcinogenesis were male gender, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2 or 3, Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP-L3) ≥5%, the presence of nonhypervascular hypointense nodules (NHHNs) and Non-DAA group. Of 67 patients, multistep hepatocarcinogenesis occurred in 58 patients (86.6%) and de novo hepatocarcinogenesis occurred in nine patients (13.4%). Factors associated with multistep hepatocarcinogenesis were male gender and Non-DAA group.

CONCLUSION

The eradication of HCV by DAA therapy reduces multistep hepatocarcinogenesis.

Guidelines for diagnosis and treatment of hepatic fibrosis with integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine (2019 edition)

In 2006, the Hepatology Committee of Chinese Association of Integrative Medicine issued the "Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Liver Fibrosis with Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine." In recent years, the fields of Chinese medicine, Western medicine, and integrative medicine have made rapid advances in basic and clinical research into chronic liver disease, and accumulated new evidence for the prevention and treatment of hepatic fibrosis. Therefore, in order to meet clinical needs, liver disease experts of integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine were united to revise the previous guidelines in order to help physicians make correct and reasonable decisions in the diagnosis and treatment of hepatic fibrosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence does not differ between interferon-based and interferon-free treatment with liver histological assessment

AIM

Several studies have recently reported that hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence does not differ between hepatitis C virus patients receiving interferon (IFN)-based and IFN-free treatments considering the patients' backgrounds. However, liver fibrosis was not directly considered in these studies.

METHODS

In total, 3972 patients without a history of HCC who started IFN-based or IFN-free treatment between August 2002 and April 2017 at 30 Japanese hospitals and achieved a sustained virologic response were included. Propensity score matching considering liver histology was performed.

RESULTS

The median age and percentage of patients with advanced liver fibrosis (F3/4) were 58 years and 11.4% in the IFN-based group, and 68 years and 18.9% in the IFN-free group, respectively. The HCC occurrence rates at 1 year and 2 years were 0.4% and 1.1% in the IFN-based group, and 1.6% and 4.1% in the IFN-free group, respectively, and HCC occurrence in the IFN-free group was significantly higher than that in the IFN-based group (P < 0.001). The characteristics of the HCC occurrence patterns did not differ between the two groups. After propensity score matching, among 764 patients, the HCC occurrence rates at 1 year and 2 years were 0.5% and 1.9% in the IFN-based group and 1.1% and 3.0% in the IFN-free group, respectively, and no significant difference was observed between the two groups (P = 0.489).

CONCLUSIONS

HCC occurrence in sustained virologic response patients does not differ between IFN-based and IFN-free treatment considering liver fibrosis stage. The degree of its progress at diagnosis does not differ between the two groups.

Changing Patterns of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Treatment with Direct Antiviral Agents

Introduction

The impact of direct antiviral agents (DAAs) on the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is controversial. One important aspect of this controversy is the changing pattern of HCC.

Objective

In this study, we attempted to assess the changes in the pattern of HCC after treatment with DAAs.

Methods

A total of 51 HCC patients after DAA treatment and 54 HCC patients without DAA treatment were included. The diagnosis of HCC was based on typical dynamic CT and/or MRI criteria in both groups. Liver status was assessed by means of the fibrosis 4 index (Fib-4), Child-Pugh classification, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). HCC infiltrative pattern, portal vein thrombosis (PVT), local and distant metastases, and α-fetoprotein (AFP) level were compared in the 2 groups. The staging of HCC and treatment decisions were made in both groups following the Milan criteria, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging, tumor-node-metastasis staging, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program categorization.

Results

The mean age of the HCC patients after DAA treatment (59.1± 7.4 years) was older than that of the HCC patients without DAA treatment. There was no significant difference between groups regarding sex distribution. The mean Fib-4 score (4.84 ± 3.53) was significantly lower in HCC patients after DAA treatment than in those without DAA treatment. The frequency of the infiltrative HCC pattern, PVT, and regional lymph node metastasis was significantly higher in HCC patients after DAA treatment than in those without DAA treatment (p ≤ 0.05); mean AFP level (5,085.2 ± 11,883.2 ng/mL) was also significantly higher. HCC patients after DAA treatment had significantly advanced stages and limited treatment options (p ≤ 0.05).

Conclusion

The changing HCC pattern after DAA treatment may suggest the need for new HCC staging and treatment protocols.

Direct acting antiviral-induced dynamic reduction of serum α fetoprotein in hepatitis C patients without hepatocellular carcinoma

Direct acting antiviral (DAA) treatments may reduce the elevated α fetoprotein (AFP), but data on how these treatments affect elevated AFP in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) remain insufficient. In the present study, the frequency of baseline AFP elevations and their related factors, AFP dynamics during and after DAA treatment, and factors associated with AFP reduction was assessed. This retrospective study included 141 patients with CHC without hepatocellular carcinoma who received DAA and achieved sustained virological response. The details are as follows: mean post-treatment follow-up was 99 weeks (12-213); mean age, 57.8 years old; 52%, males; 79%, genotype (GT) 1; and 47%, cirrhosis. Pre-treatment AFP elevation (> 5.5 ng/mL) was seen in 48.2% patients. On multivariate analysis, baseline AFP > 5.5 was associated with the presence of cirrhosis (P =0.001), coexisting non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (P = 0.035), and GT 1 (P = 0.029). AFP normalization was seen in 28.2% patients at treatment week 2, in 52% at the end of treatment, and in 73.4% at the end of follow-up. Post-treatment week 24 AFP normalization was associated with the absence of cirrhosis (P = 0.003), Child-Pugh score < 6 (P = 0.015), and baseline AFP < 10 (P = 0.015). AFP elevation is common in patients with CHC and independently associated with NASH, cirrhosis, and GT 1. DAA treatment resulted in AFP normalization as early as treatment week 2. Post-treatment week 24 AFP normalization is independently associated with the absence of cirrhosis, Child-Pugh score < 6, and baseline AFP < 10.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development after hepatitis C virus eradicated by direct-acting antivirals: Fact or fiction?

Although interferon (IFN)-based therapy has been shown to reduce hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development once patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection achieve sustained virologic response (SVR), IFN-based therapy is limited by its multiple adverse effects, non-oral administration, and unsatisfactory SVR rate. In recent years, IFN-free all-oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have replaced IFN-based therapy as the standard of care for HCV infection worldwide because of the higher SVR rate and lower incidence of adverse effects. By using currently approved DAA regimens, HCV can be eradicated in more than 95% of infected hosts, regardless of their disease severity. Since 2016, the risk of de novo occurrence or recurrence of HCC in hepatitis C patients receiving DAAs has been debatable because of a report addressing an unexpected high early tumor recurrence rate. To solve this important, interesting, yet controversial issue, we thus reviewed the latest and most relevant articles on this subject and proposed recommendations to manage such patients for healthcare providers.

Clinical impact of serum α-fetoprotein and its relation on changes in liver fibrosis in hepatitis C virus patients receiving direct-acting antivirals

BACKGROUND

α-Fetoprotein (AFP) is used widely as a serological marker for hepatocellular carcinoma. However, the AFP value is elevated in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients without hepatocellular carcinoma. Yet, data on the impact of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) therapy on AFP levels after viral eradication are still lacking.

AIM

The aim of this study was to elucidate the changes in the serum AFP level in chronic hepatitis C patients treated with DAA-based therapy and their relation to response and liver fibrosis parameters.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 456 chronic HCV patients who received different DAAs-based treatment regimens were enrolled. Laboratory data including serum AFP, transient elastography values, and fibrosis scores were recorded at baseline and sustained virological response at 24 weeks after treatment (SVR24). The outcome was the changes in the AFP level from baseline to SVR24 and its relation to changes in liver fibrosis parameters at SVR24 using Spearman's rank correlation test.

RESULTS

Overall, 96.9% of enrolled patients were responders. A statistically significant improvement in serum transaminases, albumin, transient elastography values, and fibrosis scores at SVR24 was reported. The AFP level was significantly decreased from a median (interquartile range) of 6 (3.2-10.8) ng/ml before DAAs to 4 (2.3-6) ng/ml at SVR24 (P < 0.0001). Only 22.6% of patients showed an increase in the AFP level after treatment. On multivariate analysis, the only independent baseline variable associated with an increase in the AFP level after treatment was baseline AFP (odds ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.91-0.99, P = 0.02). There is a significant correlation between changes in AFP and liver fibrosis parameters at SVR24.

CONCLUSION

DAAs-based regimens are a highly efficient antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C patients that resulted in improvements in the serum AFP level.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin in patients with genotype 2 chronic hepatitis C: an analysis with real world outcomes from a multicentre cohort in Japan

OBJECTIVES

A number of publications have demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin (SOF+RBV) compared with the former standard therapy with interferon (IFN)-containing regimens. Unlike these cost-effective analyses, where efficacy parameters were obtained from registration trials for drug approval, this analysis is a cost-effectiveness analysis of SOF+RBV for genotype (GT) 2 non-cirrhosis (NC) and compensated cirrhosis (CC) patients using efficacy parameters obtained from a multicentre cohort study (Kyushu University Liver Disease Study; KULDS) in Kyushu area in Japan in order to reflect real-world clinical practice in Japan.

METHOD

A Markov model followed 10 000 patients (62 years old) over their lifetime. Four populations were followed: treatment-naïve (TN)-NC, treatment-experienced (TE)-NC, TN-CC and TE-CC. Comparators were Peg-IFNα2b+RBV for TN-NC and CC patients and telaprevir (TVR)+Peg-IFNα2b+RBV for TE-NC patients. The sustained virological response (SVR) rates of SOF+RBV were taken from KULDS and those of comparators were obtained from systematic literature reviews. There were nine states (NC, CC, decompensated cirrhosis [DC], hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC], SVR [NC], SVR [CC], liver transplantation [LT], post-LT and death) in this model, and an increase in the progression rate to HCC due to ageing was also considered. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of a public healthcare payer, and a discount rate of 2% was set for both cost and effectiveness.

RESULTS

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of SOF+RBV versus Peg-IFNα2b+RBV were ¥323 928 /quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for TN-NC patients, ¥92 256/QALY for TN-CC patients and ¥1 519 202/QALY for TE-CC patients. The ICER of SOF+RBV versus TVR+Peg-IFNα2b+RBV was ¥849 138/QALY for TE-NC patients. The robustness of the results was determined by sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this analysis strongly demonstrate the robustness of our previous findings that SOF+RBV regimens are cost-effective in the real world and clinical trial settings for Japanese GT2 NC and CC patients.

Programmed death-ligand 1 expression is an unfavorable prognostic factor of hepatocellular carcinoma after archiving sustained virologic response for hepatitis C virus infection

The aim of the present study was to study the pathological prognostic factor of initial hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after archiving sustained virologic response (SVR) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. A single-center retrospective analysis was performed for patients who underwent hepatectomy between 2003 and 2017. We studied clinico-pathological findings of resected liver tissues in 35 patients with HCC after SVR treated by interferon (IFN group) and 13 patients with HCC after SVR treated by direct acting antivirals (DAA group). We also performed immunohistochemical staining using antibodies against programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1), cytokeratin 19, epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) and regulator of G-protein signaling 5 (RGS5). PD-L1 positive HCC was observed in 6 cases of the IFN group and 4 cases of the DAA group. In the IFN group, in univariate analysis of recurrence free survival after surgery (RFS), the PD-L1 expression had a statistically significant impact (HR=6.01; P=0.02). In the multivariate analysis of RFS, PD-L1 expression significantly remained (HR=5.01; P=0.03). For both RFS and overall survival, Kaplan-Meier curves confirmed that patients with PD-L1 expression showed significantly worse prognosis (log-rank test P<0.01). Nuclear grade, RGS5 expression, and EpCAM expression were significantly higher in the PD-L1-positive HCC group compared with the PD-L1-negative HCC group (P<0.05). Therefore, PD-L1 expression may be an independent prognostic factor of surgically resected HCC after achieving SVR.

Incidence and risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma change over time in patients with hepatitis C virus infection who achieved sustained virologic response

AIM

In patients with chronic hepatitis C, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs at a certain frequency, even if a sustained virologic response (SVR) is achieved by antiviral treatment. Old age, liver fibrosis, and high post-treatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) level are typical risk factors of post-SVR HCC. We examined whether the frequencies and factors of HCC in patients with an SVR achieved from interferon treatment changed. Methods Among patients prospectively registered for pegylated interferon and ribavirin treatment, 2021 with an SVR without HCC development during the treatment period were followed up. The mean observation period was 49.5 ± 26.2 months.

RESULTS

The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that older age, diabetes mellitus, advanced liver disease, and higher post-treatment AFP level were the independent risk factors throughout the observation period. The annual occurrence rate of HCC was 0.74% in the third year, 0.54% in the fourth year, and 0.40% in the fifth year; it gradually decreased from the third year. Because the time course hazards for HCC changed at 48 months, we separately analyzed its risk factors before and after this change point. The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that the four above-mentioned factors were significantly related to HCC development within 4 years. Conversely, the univariable Cox regression analysis only identified diabetes mellitus as a significant factor for HCC development after 4 years.

CONCLUSION

The frequency of HCC in hepatitis C patients who achieved an SVR from interferon treatment decreased during the observation period, and its risk factors changed between the early and late periods.

TLL1 variant associated with development of hepatocellular carcinoma after eradication of hepatitis C virus by interferon-free therapy

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to ascertain whether the TLL1 variant at rs17047200 is associated with the development of HCC after achieving sustained virological response (SVR) by interferon (IFN)-free therapy for chronic hepatitis C (CHC).

METHODS

A total of 1029 Japanese CHC patients with the following inclusion criteria were enrolled: (i) achieved SVR by IFN-free therapy, (ii) followed up at least 1 year from the end of treatment (EOT) (median 104 weeks), (iii) no history of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by 1 year from the EOT.

RESULTS

Nineteen patients developed HCC (HCC group) and 1010 did not (non-HCC group). The proportion of rs17047200 AT/TT was significantly higher in the HCC group than the non-HCC group (47.4% vs. 20.1%, P = 0.008). Multivariate analysis showed that higher levels of α-fetoprotein, FIB-4 and rs17047200 AT/TT were independent risk factors for developing HCC (HR = 3.22, P = 0.021 for α-fetoprotein > 4.6 ng/ml; HR = 3.89, P = 0.036 for FIB-4 > 2.67; HR = 2.80, P = 0.026 for rs17047200 AT/TT). Cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher in patients with rs17047200 AT/TT than in those with AA (P = 0.006). Comparing clinical characteristics according to the TLL1 genotypes, patients with rs17047200 AT/TT had significantly lower platelet counts and higher levels of FIB-4 than those with AA (P = 0.011 and 0.032, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The TLL1 variant was independently associated with HCC development after HCV eradication by IFN-free regimen. It might be involved in hepatic fibrogenesis and thereby carcinogenesis.

Predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence associated with the use of direct-acting antiviral agent therapy for hepatitis C virus after curative treatment: A prospective multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have suggested an association between the use of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for treating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and the resulting decrease in the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, it is unclear whether DAAs prevent the recurrence of HCC after curative treatment for HCC. This study aimed to prospectively investigate HCC recurrence and its predictors after curative treatment for HCC.

METHODS

A total of 3012 patients with chronic HCV infection, with or without cirrhosis, who were treated with DAAs were enrolled between January 1, 2015 and January 31, 2017 as per the institutional review board approved study protocol at 15 institutions, including 10 university hospitals and five high-volume centers in the Kyusyu area of Japan. Of the 3012 patients, 459 patients who had HCC but were cured with surgery or ablation therapy (curative treatment) before the use of DAAs were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 29.4 months, 217 (47.2%) patients developed HCC recurrence. The median time to recurrence was 34.0 months, and the 1-, 2-, and 3-year cumulative HCC recurrence rates were 27.1%, 43.4%, and 50.8%, respectively. The risk factors for HCC recurrence were the α-fetoprotein (AFP) level before DAA therapy (P = 0.0047) and the number of curative treatments for HCC before DAA therapy (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

A high AFP level and multiple occurrences of HCC before DAA therapy are associated with a high risk for HCC recurrence after curative treatment. Follow-up after DAA therapy should include special attention to the abovementioned risk factors.

Predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence after direct-acting antiviral therapy in patients with hepatitis C virus infection

AIM

The predictors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment were investigated.

METHODS

A total of 1174 patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection were treated with DAA therapy (sofosbuvir and ledipasvir [n = 615], sofosbuvir and ribavirin [n = 380], and daclatasvir and asunaprevir [n = 179]) and achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). The HCC development rate and the factors that might contribute to the development of HCC after the end of DAA treatment were analyzed.

RESULTS

During the median observation period of 537 days, HCC developed in 33 cases. The incidence of HCC was 1.9%, 3.2%, and 4.1% at 1, 1.5, and 2 years after the end of DAA therapy, respectively. Multivariate analysis with pre- and post-treatment factors identified the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.021-1.178; P = 0.011) and post-treatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) (HR = 1.11; 95% CI, 1.054-1.172; P < 0.001) as independent factors that contributed to the development of HCC after DAA therapy. Using these identified parameters, a new scoring system (0 to 2 points) was established. Patients in the high-score group (2 points) could be identified as having a significantly higher risk of HCC development, and the respective 1- and 2-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 6.1% and 14.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

A high FIB-4 index and a high post-treatment AFP at the end of DAA treatment were the independent predictors for developing HCC after DAA treatment. For patients with these risk factors, extra attention to the possibility of HCC development is needed.

Proposed a simple score for recommendation of scheduled ultrasonography surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma after Direct Acting Antivirals: multicenter analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

To develop a scoring method using with common clinical data for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after sustained virological response at 24 weeks (SVR24) after treatment with direct acting antivirals (DAAs), we retrospectively evaluated clinical features of patients who obtained SVR24.

METHODS

From October 2014 to December 2017, 1069 hepatitis C virus patients without a past history of HCC, who obtained SVR24 by DAAs at two different areas, were enrolled (the training [n = 484, ChuShikoku-group] and validation [n = 585, Chubu-group] sets). All were examined by ultrasonography as surveillance for HCC at the time of starting DAAs and twice a year after SVR24. We identified three parameters at SVR24, male gender, FIB-4 index > 3.25, and α-fetoprotein level > 5.0 ng/mL, as risk factors for HCC development and gave them point values, with the sum used as After DAAs Recommendation for Surveillance (ADRES) score.

RESULTS

In the ChuShikoku-group, the respective 1-/2-year rates for HCC incidence rates ADRES score 0 were 0.0%/0.0%, for a score 1 were 1.1%/2.1%, score 2 were 8.8%/15.9%, and score 3 were 17.1%/28.1%. On the other hand, those respective scores for the Chubu-group were 0.0%/0.0%, 0.0%/0.7%, 7.9%/10.6%, and 19.5%/not available. The c-index of the predictive value for HCC development in the training set after SVR24 was 0.835 while 0.899 in the validation set. Finally, those of the entire cohort were 0.0%/0.0%, 0.5%/1.6%, 8.4%/13.4%, and 18.0%/32.8%.

CONCLUSION

The present ADRES score was simple and easy to use and may be useful for predicting risk of HCC development in short term after reaching SVR24 by DAAs.