Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

Health Co-Benefits of Environmental Changes in the Context of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in China

IMPORTANCE

Climate change mitigation policies aimed at limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would bring substantial health co-benefits by directly alleviating climate change or indirectly reducing air pollution. As one of the largest developing countries and GHG emitter globally, China's carbon-peaking and carbon neutrality goals would lead to substantial co-benefits on global environment and therefore on human health. This review summarized the key findings and gaps in studies on the impact of China's carbon mitigation strategies on human health.

HIGHLIGHTS

There is a wide consensus that limiting the temperature rise well below 2 °C would markedly reduce the climate-related health impacts compared with high emission scenario, although heat-related mortalities, labor productivity reduction rates, and infectious disease morbidities would continue increasing over time as temperature rises. Further, hundreds of thousands of air pollutant-related mortalities (mainly due to PM2.5 and O3) could be avoided per year compared with the reference scenario without climate policy. Carbon reduction policies can also alleviate morbidities due to acute exposure to PM2.5. Further research with respect to morbidities attributed to nonoptimal temperature and air pollution, and health impacts attributed to precipitation and extreme weather events under current carbon policy in China or its equivalent in other developing countries is needed to improve our understanding of the disease burden in the coming decades.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides up-to-date evidence of potential health co-benefits under Chinese carbon policies and highlights the importance of considering these co-benefits into future climate policy development in both China and other nations endeavoring carbon reductions.

Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute relatively little to global carbon emissions but are recognised to be among the most vulnerable parts of the world to health-related consequences of climate change. To help inform resilient health systems and health policy strategies, we sought to systematically analyse published projections of the impact of rising global temperatures and other weather-related events on human health in LMICs. A systematic search involving multiple databases was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to identify studies with modelled projections of the future impact of climate change on human health. Qualitative studies, reviews and meta-analyses were excluded. The search yielded more than 2500 articles, of which 70 studies involving 37 countries met criteria for inclusion. China, Brazil and India were the most studied countries while the sub-Saharan African region was represented in only 9% of studies. Forty specific health outcomes were grouped into eight categories. Non-disease-specific temperature-related mortality was the most studied health outcome, followed by neglected tropical infections (predominantly dengue), malaria and cardiovascular diseases. Nearly all health outcomes studied were projected to increase in burden and/or experience a geographic shift in prevalence over the next century due to climate change. Progressively severe climate change scenarios were associated with worse health outcomes. Knowledge gaps identified in this analysis included insufficient studies of various high burden diseases, asymmetric distribution of studies across LMICs and limited use of some climate parameters as independent variables. Findings from this review could be the basis for future research to help inform climate mitigation and adaptation programmes aimed at safeguarding population health in LMICs.

Climate Change Projections for Stroke Incidence in Taiwan: Impact of 2 °C and 4 °C Global Warming Level

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to establish the exposure-lag-response effect between daily maximum temperature and stroke-related emergency department visits and to project heat-induced stroke impacts under global warming levels (GWL) of 2 °C and 4 °C.

METHODS

Stroke-related emergency department visits in Taiwan from 2001 to 2020 were identified using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). The study population consisted of 1,100,074 initial stroke cases matched with 2,200,148 non-stroke controls. We employed Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM) in a case-crossover study to investigate the association between temperature and stroke. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models with a Poisson function were used to correlate high-temperature exposure with annual stroke incidence rates. Projections were made under two global warming scenarios, GWL 2.0 °C and 4.0 °C, using Coupled General Circulation Model (GCMs). Baseline data from 1995 to 2014 were transformed for spatial distribution at the township level. Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was performed using Quantum GIS 3.2.0 software.

RESULTS

DLNM exposure-lag-response effect revealed that daily maximum temperature exceeding 34 °C significantly increased the risk of stroke-related emergency department visits, particularly for ischemic stroke. Under the 2 °C GWL scenario, the frequency of days with temperatures surpassing 34 °C is projected to rise substantially by the median year of 2042, with a further increase to 92.6 ± 18.0 days/year by 2065 under the 4 °C GWL scenario. Ischemic stroke showed the highest increase in temperature-related incidence rates, notably rising from 7.80% under the GWL 2 °C to 36.06% under the GWL 4 °C. Specifically, the annual temperature-related incidence rate for ischemic stroke is expected to increase significantly by 2065. Regions such as Taichung, Hsinchu, Yilan, and Taitung demonstrated pronounced changes in heat-related ischemic stroke incidence under the GWL 4 °C.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings emphasize the importance of addressing temperature-related stroke risks, particularly in regions projected to experience significant temperature increases. Effective mitigation strategies are crucial to reduce the impact of rising temperatures on stroke incidence and safeguard public health.

Machine learning-based analysis and prediction of meteorological factors and urban heatstroke diseases

Introduction

Heatstroke is a serious clinical condition caused by exposure to high temperature and high humidity environment, which leads to a rapid increase of the core temperature of the body to more than 40°C, accompanied by skin burning, consciousness disorders and other organ system damage. This study aims to analyze the effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of heatstroke using machine learning, and to construct a heatstroke forecasting model to provide reference for heatstroke prevention.

Methods

The data of heatstroke incidence and meteorological factors in a city in South China from May to September 2014-2019 were analyzed in this study. The lagged effect of meteorological factors on heatstroke incidence was analyzed based on the distributed lag non-linear model, and the prediction model was constructed by using regression decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting trees, linear SVRs, LSTMs, and ARIMA algorithm.

Results

The cumulative lagged effect found that heat index, dew-point temperature, daily maximum temperature and relative humidity had the greatest influence on heatstroke. When the heat index, dew-point temperature, and daily maximum temperature exceeded certain thresholds, the risk of heatstroke was significantly increased on the same day and within the following 5 days. The lagged effect of relative humidity on the occurrence of heatstroke was different with the change of relative humidity, and both excessively high and low environmental humidity levels exhibited a longer lagged effect on the occurrence of heatstroke. With regard to the prediction model, random forest model had the best performance of 5.28 on RMSE and dropped to 3.77 after being adjusted.

Discussion

The incidence of heatstroke in this city is significantly correlated with heat index, heatwave, dew-point temperature, air temperature and zhongfu, among which the heat index and dew-point temperature have a significant lagged effect on heatstroke incidence. Relevant departments need to closely monitor the data of the correlated factors, and adopt heat prevention measures before the temperature peaks, calling on citizens to reduce outdoor activities.

Projecting heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to human-induced climate change in China

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been found to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and temperature variability. This study aimed to assess the extent to which human-induced climate change contributes to future heat-related CVD burdens.

METHODS

Daily data on CVD mortality and temperature were collected in 161 Chinese communities from 2007 to 2013. The association between heat and CVD mortality was established using a two-stage time-series design. Under the natural forcing, human-induced, and combined scenarios, we then separately projected excess cause-/age-/region-/education-specific mortality from future high temperature in 2010-2100, assuming no adaptation and population changes.

FINDINGS

Under shared socioeconomic pathway with natural forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5-nat), heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths decreased slightly from 3.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.3, 5.8] in the 2010s to 2.8% (95% eCI: 0.1, 5.2) in the 2090s, with relative change of -0.4% (95% eCI: -0.8, 0.0). However, for combined natural and human-induced forcings, this estimate would surge to 8.9% (95% eCI: 1.5, 15.7), 14.4% (95% eCI: 1.5, 25.3), 21.3% (95% eCI: -0.6, 39.4), and 28.7% (95% eCI: -3.3, 48.0) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. When excluding the natural forcing, the number of human-induced heat-related CVD deaths would increase from approximately eight thousand (accounting for 31% of total heat-related CVD deaths) in the 2010s to 33,052 (68%), 63,283 (80%), 101,091 (87%), and 141,948 (90%) in the 2090s under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Individuals with stroke, females, the elderly, people living in rural areas, and those with lower education level would exhibit heightened susceptibility to future high temperature. In addition, Southern and Eastern regions of China were expected to experience a faster increase in heat-related attributable fraction of CVD deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Human activities would significantly amplify the future burden of heat-related CVD. Our study findings suggested that active adaptation and mitigation measures towards future warming could yield substantial health benefits for the patients with CVD.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Social-economic transitions and vulnerability to extreme temperature events from 1960 to 2020 in Chinese cities

Climate change leads to more frequent and intense extreme temperature events, causing a significant number of excess deaths. Using an epidemiological approach, we analyze all-cause deaths related to heatwaves and cold spells in 2,852 Chinese counties from 1960 to 2020. Economic losses associated with these events are determined through the value of statistical life. Findings reveal that cold-related cumulative excess deaths (1,133 thousand) are approximately 2.5 times higher than heat-related deaths, despite an increase in heat-related fatalities in recent decades. Monetized mortality due to heat-related events is estimated at 1,284 billion CNY, while cold-related economic loss is 1,510 billion CNY. Notably, cities located in colder regions experience more heat-related excess deaths, and vice versa. Economic development does not significantly reduce mortality risks to heatwaves across China. This study provides insights into the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of heatwaves and cold spells mortality, essential for policymakers ensuring long-term climate adaptation and sustainability.

Biochar impacts on carbon dioxide, methane emission, and cadmium accumulation in rice from Cd-contaminated soils; A meta-analysis

Climate change and cadmium (Cd) contamination pose severe threats to rice production and food security. Biochar (BC) has emerged as a promising soil amendment for mitigating these challenges. To investigate the BC effects on paddy soil upon GHG emissions, Cd bioavailability, and its accumulation, a meta-analysis of published data from 2000 to 2023 was performed. Data Manager 5.3 and GetData plot Digitizer software were used to obtain and process the data for selected parameters. Our results showed a significant increase of 18% in soil pH with sewage sludge BC application, while 9% increase in soil organic carbon (SOC) using bamboo chips BC. There was a significant reduction in soil bulk density (8%), but no significant effects were observed for soil porosity, except for wheat straw BC which reduced the soil porosity by 6%. Sewage sludge and bamboo chips BC significantly reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) by 7-8% while municipal biowaste reduced methane (CH4) emissions by 2%. In the case of heavy metals, sunflower seedshells-derived materials and rice husk BC significantly reduced the bioavailable Cd in paddy soils by 24% and 12%, respectively. Cd uptake by rice roots was lowered considerably by the addition of kitchen waste (22%), peanut hulls (21%), and corn cob (15%) based BC. Similarly, cotton sticks, kitchen waste, peanut hulls, and rice husk BC restricted Cd translocation from rice roots to shoots by 22%, 27%, 20%, and 19%, respectively, while sawdust and rice husk-based BC were effective for reducing Cd accumulation in rice grains by 25% and 13%. Regarding rice yield, cotton sticks-based BC significantly increased the yield by 37% in Cd-contaminated paddy soil. The meta-analysis demonstrated that BC is an effective and multi-pronged strategy for sustainable and resilient rice cultivation by lowering greenhouse gas emissions and Cd accumulation while improving yields under the increasing threat of climate change.

Plants and global warming: challenges and strategies for a warming world

KEY MESSAGE

In this review, we made an attempt to create a holistic picture of plant response to a rising temperature environment and its impact by covering all aspects from temperature perception to thermotolerance. This comprehensive account describing the molecular mechanisms orchestrating these responses and potential mitigation strategies will be helpful for understanding the impact of global warming on plant life. Organisms need to constantly recalibrate development and physiology in response to changes in their environment. Climate change-associated global warming is amplifying the intensity and periodicity of these changes. Being sessile, plants are particularly vulnerable to variations happening around them. These changes can cause structural, metabolomic, and physiological perturbations, leading to alterations in the growth program and in extreme cases, plant death. In general, plants have a remarkable ability to respond to these challenges, supported by an elaborate mechanism to sense and respond to external changes. Once perceived, plants integrate these signals into the growth program so that their development and physiology can be modulated befittingly. This multifaceted signaling network, which helps plants to establish acclimation and survival responses enabled their extensive geographical distribution. Temperature is one of the key environmental variables that affect all aspects of plant life. Over the years, our knowledge of how plants perceive temperature and how they respond to heat stress has improved significantly. However, a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the process still largely elusive. This review explores how an increase in the global surface temperature detrimentally affects plant survival and productivity and discusses current understanding of plant responses to high temperature (HT) and underlying mechanisms. We also highlighted potential resilience attributes that can be utilized to mitigate the impact of global warming.

Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050

BACKGROUND

Climate change scenarios illustrate various pathways in terms of global warming ranging from "sustainable development" (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-1.9), the best-case scenario, to 'fossil-fueled development' (SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the extent to which increase in daily average urban summer temperature is associated with future cause-specific mortality and projected heat-related mortality burden for the current warming trend and these two scenarios.

METHODS

We did an observational cohort study of 363,754 participants living in six cities in Finland. Using residential addresses, participants were linked to daily temperature records and electronic death records from national registries during summers (1 May to 30 September) 2000 to 2018. For each day of observation, heat index (average daily air temperature weighted by humidity) for the preceding 7 d was calculated for participants' residential area using a geographic grid at a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km . We examined associations of the summer heat index with risk of death by cause for all participants adjusting for a wide range of individual-level covariates and in subsidiary analyses using case-crossover design, computed the related period population attributable fraction (PAF), and projected change in PAF from summers 2000-2018 compared with those in 2030-2050.

RESULTS

During a cohort total exposure period of 582,111,979 summer days (3,880,746 person-summers), we recorded 4,094 deaths, including 949 from cardiovascular disease. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) for high (≥ 21 ° C ) vs. reference (14 - 15 ° C ) heat index was 1.70 (95% CI: 1.28, 2.27) for cardiovascular mortality, but it did not reach statistical significance for noncardiovascular deaths, RR = 1.14 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36), a finding replicated in case-crossover analysis. According to projections for 2030-2050, PAF of summertime cardiovascular mortality attributable to high heat will be 4.4% (1.8%-7.3%) under the sustainable development scenario, but 7.6% (3.2%-12.3%) under the fossil-fueled development scenario. In the six cities, the estimated annual number of summertime heat-related cardiovascular deaths under the two scenarios will be 174 and 298 for a total population of 1,759,468 people.

DISCUSSION

The increase in average urban summer temperature will raise heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden. The estimated magnitude of this burden is > 1.5 times greater if future climate change is driven by fossil fuels rather than sustainable development. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12080.

Biogeography of Fungal Communities Associated with Pinus sylvestris L. and Picea abies (L.) H. Karst. along the Latitudinal Gradient in Europe

We assessed the diversity and composition of fungal communities in different functional tissues and the rhizosphere soil of Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies stands along the latitudinal gradient of these tree species distributions in Europe to model possible changes in fungal communities imposed by climate change. For each tree species, living needles, shoots, roots, and the rhizosphere soil were sampled and subjected to high-throughput sequencing. Results showed that the latitude and the host tree species had a limited effect on the diversity and composition of fungal communities, which were largely explained by the environmental variables of each site and the substrate they colonize. The mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation had a strong effect on root fungal communities, isothermality on needle fungal communities, mean temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the driest month on shoot fungal communities, and precipitation seasonality on soil fungal communities. Fungal communities of both tree species are predicted to shift to habitats with a lower annual temperature amplitude and with increasing precipitation during the driest month, but the suitability of these habitats as compared to the present conditions is predicted to decrease in the future.

A Novel Method for Filled/Unfilled Grain Classification Based on Structured Light Imaging and Improved PointNet+

China is the largest producer and consumer of rice, and the classification of filled/unfilled rice grains is of great significance for rice breeding and genetic analysis. The traditional method for filled/unfilled rice grain identification was generally manual, which had the disadvantages of low efficiency, poor repeatability, and low precision. In this study, we have proposed a novel method for filled/unfilled grain classification based on structured light imaging and Improved PointNet++. Firstly, the 3D point cloud data of rice grains were obtained by structured light imaging. And then the specified processing algorithms were developed for the single grain segmentation, and data enhancement with normal vector. Finally, the PointNet++ network was improved by adding an additional Set Abstraction layer and combining the maximum pooling of normal vectors to realize filled/unfilled rice grain point cloud classification. To verify the model performance, the Improved PointNet++ was compared with six machine learning methods, PointNet and PointConv. The results showed that the optimal machine learning model is XGboost, with a classification accuracy of 91.99%, while the classification accuracy of Improved PointNet++ was 98.50% outperforming the PointNet 93.75% and PointConv 92.25%. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated a novel and effective method for filled/unfilled grain recognition.

Impacts of Inherent Components and Nitrogen Fertilizer on Eating and Cooking Quality of Rice: A Review

With the continuous improvement of living standards, the preferences of consumers are shifting to rice varieties with high eating and cooking quality (ECQ). Milled rice is mainly composed of starch, protein, and oil, which constitute the physicochemical basis of rice taste quality. This review summarizes the relationship between rice ECQ and its intrinsic ingredients, and also briefly introduces the effects of nitrogen fertilizer management on rice ECQ. Rice varieties with higher AC usually have more long branches of amylopectin, which leach less when cooking, leading to higher hardness, lower stickinesss, and less panelist preference. High PC impedes starch pasting, and it may be hard for heat and moisture to enter the rice interior, ultimately resulting in worse rice eating quality. Rice with higher lipid content had a brighter luster and better eating quality, and starch lipids in rice have a greater impact on rice eating quality than non-starch lipids. The application of nitrogen fertilizer can enhance rice yield, but it also decreases the ECQ of rice. CRNF has been widely used in cereal crops such as maize, wheat, and rice as a novel, environmentally friendly, and effective fertilizer, and could increase rice quality to a certain extent compared with conventional urea. This review shows a benefit to finding more reasonable nitrogen fertilizer management that can be used to regulate the physical and chemical indicators of rice grains in production and to improve the taste quality of rice without affecting yield.

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model ('CONCLUDE'). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries. We show that adaptation policies can reduce the number of internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9, depending on the type of strategies pursued; the implementation of hard protection measures may even lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, spatial migration patterns are robust across all scenarios, with out-migration from a narrow coastal strip and in-migration widely spread across urban settings. However, the type of migration (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends on future socioeconomic developments that drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making that goes well beyond coastal issues.

The contribution of demographic changes to future heat-related health burdens under climate change scenarios

Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies.

Mediating Effect of Heat Waves between Ecosystem Services and Heat-Related Mortality of Characteristic Populations: Evidence from Jiangsu Province, China

In the context of climate change, heat waves are a serious hazard having significant impacts on human health, especially vulnerable populations. Many studies have researched the association between extreme heat and mortality. In the context of urban planning, many studies have explored the cooling effect of green roofs, parks, urban forests and urban gardens. Nevertheless, few studies have analyzed the effect mechanism of specific ecosystem services (Ess) as mitigation measures to heat waves. This study aimed to determine the relationship among Ess, heat waves and the heat-related mortality risk of different groups by diseases, age and sex. The research was conducted in three cities in Jiangsu Province, including Nanjing, Suzhou and Yancheng. We quantified five ecosystem services, i.e., water supply service, carbon sequestration service, cooling service, biodiversity and cultural service. Based on the previous studies, we took the frequency of heat waves into account, extending the concept of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI). A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to estimate the effect of extreme heat on mortality. Then, the study used the process analysis method to explore the relationship among Ess, heat waves and heat-related mortality risks. The results indicated that (i) water supply service, carbon sequestration service, cooling service and biodiversity can reduce heat-related mortality while cultural service increases; (ii) the effects of carbon sequestration service and cultural service are stronger than other Ess; (iii) the effects of Ess on cardiorespiratory disease, stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality risks are higher than others; and (iv) women and elderly heat-related mortality risks are more affected by the Ess. This study can provide a theoretical support for policy makers to mitigate heatwave events, thus limiting heat-related mortality.

Analysis and intervention of heatwave related economic loss: Comprehensive insights from supply, demand, and public expenditure into the relationship between the influencing factors

Increasing extreme temperatures are producing a serious impact on the economies of cities. However, the importance of social factors is typically neglected by the existing research. In this work, we first establish a supply-demand-public expenditure (SDP) framework for assessing and forecasting heat-related economic loss. Compared with the previous framework, SDP possesses a more comprehensive index system and functions that apply to all types of cities. We selected different economic development and geographical locations (Nanjing, Suzhou, and Yancheng) as case studies to verify the wide applicability of the SDP framework. A qualitative analysis and quantitative prediction of heatwaves and socioeconomic factors on losses were conducted for different cities. The results showed that different loss types displayed obvious regional heterogeneity among the cities. The labor value loss was the most significant type, and health loss was the most vulnerable type. In addition, public expenditure played a neglected critical regulatory role. Apart from these, the current level of public expenditure for heat prevention and control remains insufficient. Based on an assessment of the effects of interventions, policymakers need to make more efforts to increase the proportion of heat-related public spending and ensure stable socio-economic development by utilizing pathways with positive intervention potentials.

Evaluation of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes for drought tolerance using morpho-physiological traits under drought-stressed and well-watered conditions

Increasing frequency of drought spells occasioned by changing climatic conditions, coupled with rise in demand for bread wheat, calls for the development of high yielding drought resilient genotypes to enhance bread wheat production in areas with moisture deficit. This study was designed to identify and select drought-tolerant bread wheat genotypes using morpho-physiological traits. One hundred and ninety-six bread wheat genotypes were evaluated in greenhouse and field experiments, under well-watered (80% of field capacity) and drought-stressed (35% of field capacity) conditions, for two years. Data were collected on five morphological traits (flag leaf size, flag leaf angle, flag leaf rolling, leaf waxiness and resistance to diseases) and 14 physiological traits. Relative water content (RWC), Excised leaf water retention (ELWR), Relative water loss (RWL), Leaf membrane stability index (LMSI), as well as Canopy temperature depression (CTD) at heading (CTDH), anthesis (CTDA), milking (CTDM), dough stage (CTDD) and ripening (CTDR) were estimated. Similarly, leaf chlorophyll content (SPAD reading) was recorded at heading (SPADH), anthesis (SPADA), milking (SPADM), dough stage (SPADD), and ripening (SPADR). Significant (p<0.01) genotypic differences were found for the traits under both well-watered and drought-stressed conditions. Associations of RWL with SPADH, SPADA, SPADM, SPADD and SPADR were significant (p<0.01) and negative under both watering regimes. The first three principal components accounted for 92.0% and 88.4% of the total variation under well-watered and drought-stressed conditions, respectively and comprised all the traits. The traits CTDD, CTDM, CTDR, SPADH, SPADA, SPADM, SPADD and SPADR with genotypes Alidoro, ET-13A2, Kingbird, Tsehay, ETBW 8816, ETBW 9027, ETBW9402, ETBW 8394 and ETBW 8725 were associated under both conditions. Genotypes with narrow flag leaves, erect flag leaf angles, fully rolled flag leaves, heavily waxed leaves, and resistant to disease manifested tolerance to drought stress. The identified traits and genotypes could be exploited in future breeding programmes for the development of bread wheat genotypes with tolerance to drought.

Achievements and gaps in projection studies on the temperature-attributable health burden: Where should we be headed?

Future projection of the temperature-related health burden, including mortality and hospital admissions, is a growing field of research. These studies aim to provide crucial information for decision-makers considering existing health policies as well as integrating targeted adaptation strategies to evade the health burden. However, this field of research is still overshadowed by large uncertainties. These uncertainties exist to an extent in the future climate and population models used by such studies but largely in the disparities in underlying assumptions. Existing studies differ in the factors incorporated for projection and strategies for considering the future adaptation of the population to temperature. These differences exist to a great degree because of a lack of robust evidence as well as gaps in the field of climate epidemiology that still require extensive input from the research community. This narrative review summarizes the current status of projection studies of temperature-attributable health burden, the guiding assumptions behind them, the common grounds, as well as the differences. Overall, the review aims to highlight existing evidence and knowledge gaps as a basis for designing future studies on temperature-attributable health burden estimation. Finding a robust methodology for projecting the future health burden could be a milestone for climate epidemiologists as this would largely benefit the world when applying this technique to project the climate-attributable cause-specific health burden and adapt our existing health policies accordingly.

Projections of heatwave-attributable mortality under climate change and future population scenarios in China

Background

In China, most previous projections of heat-related mortality have been based on modeling studies using global climate models (GCMs), which can help to elucidate the risks of extreme heat events in a changing climate. However, spatiotemporal changes in the health effects of climate change considering specific regional characteristics remain poorly understood. We aimed to use credible climate and population projections to estimate future heatwave-attributable deaths under different emission scenarios and to explore the drivers underlying these patterns of changes.

Methods

We derived climate data from a regional climate model driven by three CMIP5 GCM models and calculated future heatwaves in China under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The future gridded population data were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 assumption with different fertility rates. By applying climate zone-specific exposure-response functions to mortality during heatwave events, we projected the scale of heatwave-attributable deaths under each RCP scenario. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in heatwave-related deaths and main sources of uncertainty using a decomposition method. We compared differences in death burden under the 1.5°C target, which is closely related to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century.

Findings

The number of heatwave-related deaths will increase continuously to the mid-century even under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and will continue increasing throughout the century under RCP8.5. There will be 20,303 deaths caused by heatwaves in 2090 under RCP2.6, 35,025 under RCP4.5, and 72,260 under RCP8.5, with half of all heatwave-related deaths in any scenario concentrated in east and central China. Climate effects are the main driver for the increase in attributable deaths in the near future till 2060, explaining 78% of the total change. Subsequent population decline cannot offset the losses caused by higher incidence of heatwaves and an aging population under RCP8.5. Although health loss under the 1.5°C warming scenario is 1.6-fold higher than the baseline period 1986-2005, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C can reduce the annual mortality burden in China by 3,534 deaths in 2090 compared with RCP2.6 scenarios.

Interpretation

With accelerating climate change and population aging, the effects of future heatwaves on human health in China are likely to increase continuously even under a low emission scenario. Significant health benefits are expected if the optimistic 1.5°C goal is achieved, suggesting that carbon neutrality by mid-century is a critical target for China's sustainable development. Policymakers need to tighten climate mitigation policies tailored to local conditions while enhancing climate resilience technically and infrastructurally, especially for vulnerable elderly people.

Funding

National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200), Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z), Natural Science Foundation of China (41790471), and Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004).

Drought index predictability for historical and future periods across the Southern plain of Nepal Himalaya

Drought episodes across the Himalayas are inevitable due to rapidly increasing atmospheric temperatures and uncertainties in rainfall patterns. Tarai of Nepal is a tropical region located in the foothills of the Central Himalaya as a country's food granary with a contribution of over 50% to the entire country's agricultural production. However, there is a lack of detailed studies exploring the spatiotemporal occurrence of drought in these regions under the changing climate. In this study, we used the ensemble of nine climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP245 (an intermediate development pathway) and SSP585 (a high development pathway), to assess anticipated drought during the mid-century. We used bias-corrected gridded data from the Worldclim to project drought events by the end of the mid-century based on the historical period (1989-2018). We computed historical and projected Thornthwaite moisture index (TMI) to evaluate soil moisture conditions on a seasonal scale for the Tarai region's Eastern, Central, and Western parts. The model ensemble projected a significant increase in precipitation and temperature for the entire Tarai by the end of mid-century. However, the winter and spring seasons are projected to suffer precipitation deficiency and a temperature rise. Our results indicated that the Eastern Tarai would likely experience a decrease in winter precipitation. We emphasize that the presented spatiotemporal pattern of the MI will be instrumental in addressing the irrigation facility's needs, choice, and rotation of crops under the changing climate scenarios and in improving our mitigation measures and adaptation plans for sustainability of the agriculture in drought-prone areas.

Comprehensive Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Adaptive Strategies in China

The rice production system is one of the most climate change sensitive agro-ecosystems. This paper reviews the effects of current and future climate change on rice production in China. In recent decades, thermal resources have increased during the rice growing season, while solar radiation resources have decreased, and precipitation heterogeneity has increased. The increasing frequency of high-temperature stress, heavy rainfall, drought, and flood disasters may reduce the utilization efficiency of hydrothermal resources. Climate change, thus far, has resulted in a significant northward shift in the potential planting boundaries of single- and double-cropping rice production systems, which negatively affects the growth duration of single-, early-, and late-cropping rice. Studies based on statistical and process-based crop models show that climate change has affected rice production in China. The effects of climate change on the yield of single rice (SR), early rice (ER), and late rice (LR) were significant; however, the results of different methods and different rice growing areas were different to some extent. The trend of a longer growth period and higher yield of rice reflects the ability of China’s rice production system to adapt to climate change by adjusting planting regionalization and improving varieties and cultivation techniques. The results of the impact assessment under different climate scenarios indicated that the rice growth period would shorten and yield would decrease in the future. This means that climate change will seriously affect China’s rice production and food security. Further research requires a deeper understanding of abiotic stress physiology and its integration into ecophysiological models to reduce the uncertainty of impact assessment and expand the systematicness of impact assessment.

Effects of local factors on adaptation to heat in Spain (1983-2018)

The European Union is currently immersed in policy development to address the effects of climate change around the world. Key plans and processes for facilitating adaptation to high temperatures and for reducing the adverse effects on health are among the most urgent measures. Therefore, it is necessary to understand those factors that influence adaptation. The aim of this study was to provide knowledge related to the social, climate and economic factors that are related to the evolution of minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) in Spain in the rural and urban contexts, during the 1983-2018 time period. For this purpose, local factors were studied regarding their relationship to levels of adaptation to heat. MMT is an indicator that allows for establishing a relationship to between mortality and temperature, and is a valid indicator to assess the capacity of adaptation to heat of a certain population. MMT is obtained through the maximum daily temperature and daily mortality of the study period. The evolution of MMT values for Spain was established in a previous paper. An ecological, longitudinal and retrospective study was carried out. Generalized linear models (GLM) were performed to identify the variables that appeared to be related to adaptation. The adaptation was calculated as the difference in variation in MMT based on the average increase in maximum daily temperatures. In terms of adaptation to heat, urban populations have adapted more than non-urban populations. Seventy-nine percent (n = 11) of urban provinces have adapted to heat, compared to twenty-one percent (n = 3) of rural provinces that have not adapted. In terms of urban zones, income level and habituation to heat (values over the 95th percentile) were variables shown to be related to adaptation. In contrast, among non-urban provinces, a greater number of housing rehabilitation licenses and a greater number of health professionals were variables associated with higher increases in MMT, and therefore, with adaptation. These results highlight the need to carry out studies that allow for identifying the local factors that are most relevant and influential in population adaptation. More studies carried out at a small scale are needed.

The impact of chronic exposure to air pollution over oxidative stress parameters and brain histology

Air pollution (AP) triggers neuroinflammation and lipoperoxidation involved in physiopathology of several neurodegenerative diseases. Our study aims to investigate the effect of chronic exposure to ambient AP in oxidative stress (OS) parameters and number of neurons and microglial cells of the cortex and striatum. Seventy-two male Wistar rats were distributed in four groups of exposure: control group (FA), exposed throughout life to filtered air; group PA-FA, pre-natal exposed to polluted air until weaning and then to filtered air; group FA-PA, pre-natal exposed to filtered air until weaning and then to polluted air; and group PA, exposed throughout life to polluted air. After 150 days of exposure, the rats were euthanized for biochemical and histological determinations. The malondialdehyde concentration in the cortex and striatum was significantly higher in the PA group. The activity of superoxide dismutase was significantly decreased in the cortex of all groups exposed to AP while activity of catalase was not modified in the cortex or striatum. The total glutathione concentration was lower in the cortex and higher in the striatum of the FA-PA group. The number of neurons or microglia in the striatum did not differ between FA and PA. On the other hand, neurons and microglia cell numbers were significantly higher in the cortex of the FA-PA group. Our findings suggest that the striatum and cortex have dissimilar thresholds to react to AP exposure and different adaptable responses to chronically AP-induced OS. At least for the cortex, changing to a non-polluted ambient early in life was able to avoid and/or reverse the OS, although some alterations in enzymatic antioxidant system may be permanent. As a result, it is important to clarify the effects of AP in the cortical organization and function because of limited capacity of brain tissue to deal with threatening environments.

The mortality cost of carbon

Many studies project that climate change can cause a significant number of excess deaths. Yet, in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that determine the social cost of carbon (SCC) and prescribe optimal climate policy, human mortality impacts are limited and not updated to the latest scientific understanding. This study extends the DICE-2016 IAM to explicitly include temperature-related mortality impacts by estimating a climate-mortality damage function. We introduce a metric, the mortality cost of carbon (MCC), that estimates the number of deaths caused by the emissions of one additional metric ton of CO2. In the baseline emissions scenario, the 2020 MCC is 2.26 × 10‒4 [low to high estimate -1.71× 10‒4 to 6.78 × 10‒4] excess deaths per metric ton of 2020 emissions. This implies that adding 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2020-equivalent to the lifetime emissions of 3.5 average Americans-causes one excess death globally in expectation between 2020-2100. Incorporating mortality costs increases the 2020 SCC from $37 to $258 [-$69 to $545] per metric ton in the baseline emissions scenario. Optimal climate policy changes from gradual emissions reductions starting in 2050 to full decarbonization by 2050 when mortality is considered.

Understanding linkages between environmental risk factors and noncommunicable diseases-A review

Environmental factors such as climate change are now underway, which have substantial impacts on health and well-being of human kind, but still imprecisely quantified, implications for human health. At present, one of the most significant discussions among scientists worldwide is interdependency of escalating environmental risk factors and the increasing rates of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which are the leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Climate change also triggers the occurrence of NCDs through a variety of direct and indirect pathways. Therefore, it is likely that the interdependence of climate change, environmental risk factors, and NCDs as a whole poses great threat to global health. Hence, this paper aims to review the latest evidence on impacts of environmental risk factors on NCDs and methods used in establishing the cause or correlation of environmental risk factors and NCDs. The literature review leveraged online databases such as PubMed and Google Scholar with articles that matched keywords "climate change", "environmental risk factors," and "noncommunicable diseases". This review shows that the burden of NCDs is increasing globally and attribution of environmental risk factors such as climate change is significant. Understanding the nature of the relation between NCDs and the environment is complex and has relied on evidence generated from multiple study designs. This paper reviews eight types of study designs that can be used to identify and measure causal and correlational nature between environment and NCDs. Future projections suggest that increases in temperatures will continue and also increase the public health burden of NCDs.

Dihydromyricetin attenuates heat stress-induced apoptosis in dairy cow mammary epithelial cells through suppressing mitochondrial dysfunction

It is well known that the dairy cow production is very sensitive to environmental factors, including high temperature, high humidity and radiant heat sources. High temperature-induced heat stress is the main environmental factor that causes oxidative stress and apoptosis, which affects the development of mammary glands in dairy cows. Dihydromyricetin (DMY) is a nature flavonoid compound extracted from Ampelopsis grossedentata; it has been shown to have various pharmacological functions, such as anti-inflammation, antitumor and liver protection. The present study aims to evaluate the protective effect of DMY on heat stress-induced dairy cow mammary epithelial cells (DCMECs) apoptosis and explore the potential mechanisms. The results show that heat stress triggers heat shock response and reduces cell viability in DCMECs; pretreatment of DCMECs with DMY (25 μM) for 12 h significantly alleviates the negative effects of heat stress on cells. DMY can provide cytoprotective effects by suppressing heat stress-caused mitochondrial membrane depolarization and mitochondrial dysfunction, Bax and Caspase 3 activity, and modulation of oxidative enzymes, thereby preventing ROS production and apoptosis in DCMECs. Importantly, DMY treatment could attenuate heat stress-induced mitochondrial fragmentation through mediating the expression of mitochondrial fission and fusion-related genes, including Dynamin related protein 1 (Drp1), Mitochondrial fission 1 protein (Fis1), and Mitofusin1, 2 (Mfn1, 2). Above all, our findings demonstrate that DMY could protect DCMECs against heat stress-induced injury through preventing oxidative stress, the imbalance of mitochondrial fission and fusion, which provides useful evidence that DMY can be a promising therapeutic drug for protecting heat stress-induced mammary glands injury and mastitis.

Ecological and Socio-Economic Determinants of Livestock Animal Leptospirosis in the Russian Arctic

Leptospirosis is a re-emerging zoonotic infectious disease caused by pathogenic bacteria of the genus Leptospira. Regional differences in the disease manifestation and the role of ecological factors, specifically in regions with a subarctic and arctic climate, remain poorly understood. We here explored environmental and socio-economic features associated with leptospirosis cases in livestock animals in the Russian Arctic during 2000–2019. Spatial analysis suggested that the locations of the majority of 808 cases were in “boreal” or “polar” climate regions, with “cropland,” “forest,” “shrubland,” or “settlements” land-cover type, with a predominance of “Polar Moist Cropland on Plain” ecosystem. The cases demonstrated seasonality, with peaks in March, June, and August, corresponding to the livestock pasturing practices. We applied the Forest-based Classification and Regression algorithm to explore the relationships between the cumulative leptospirosis incidence per unit area by municipal districts (G-rate) and a number of socio-economic, landscape, and climatic factors. The model demonstrated satisfactory performance in explaining the observed disease distribution (R² = 0.82, p < 0.01), with human population density, livestock units density, the proportion of crop area, and budgetary investments into agriculture per unit area being the most influential socio-economic variables. Climatic factors demonstrated a significantly weaker influence, with nearly similar contributions of mean yearly precipitation and air temperature and number of days with above-zero temperatures. Using a projected climate by 2100 according to the RCP8.5 scenario, we predict a climate-related rise of expected disease incidence across most of the study area, with an up to 4.4-fold increase in the G-rate. These results demonstrated the predominant influence of the population and agricultural production factors on the observed increase in leptospirosis cases in livestock animals in the Russian Arctic. These findings may contribute to improvement in the regional system of anti-leptospirosis measures and may be used for further studies of livestock leptospirosis epidemiology at a finer scale.

Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2-3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4-4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5-9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0-1.2%) and 3.6% (-0.5-7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

Heat stress impairs oocyte maturation through ceramide-mediated apoptosis in pigs

Heat stress (HS) is an emerging issue that greatly impairs the reproductive performance of animals and humans. In particular, disruption of oocyte maturation due to HS is considered a major cause of impaired reproductive performance. HS is known to induce ceramide generation, which causes reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and mitochondrial dysfunction, thereby inducing apoptosis. Therefore, we investigated whether inhibition of ceramide generation ameliorates HS-induced apoptosis in porcine cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) using specific inhibitors of the de novo (fumonisin B1, FB1) and hydrolytic pathways (desipramine, Des) of ceramide formation. We investigated the effects of FB1 and Des supplementation under HS conditions (41.5 °C for 44 h) on in vitro maturation (IVM) of porcine COCs. After IVM, HS significantly reduced proportion of COCs exhibiting fully expanded cumulus cells and the rate of metaphase II in oocytes. After parthenogenetic activation (PA), HS significantly reduced the rates of cleavage and blastocyst formation with a lower total cell number and a higher percentage of apoptosis in blastocysts. However, FB1 or Des supplementation under HS avoided detrimental effects of HS on expansion of cumulus cells, nuclear maturation of oocytes, and embryonic development after PA including the rates of cleavage and blastocyst formation, total cell number, and the percentage of apoptosis in blastocysts. Furthermore, FB1 or Des addition under HS, compared with HS alone, significantly decreased ceramide generation, ROS production, cytochrome C expression, and apoptosis and increased mitochondrial membrane potential in COCs, reaching levels comparable with those of the control. Taken together, our results indicate that HS impaired oocyte maturation through ceramide-mediated apoptosis.

Impact of average temperature, energy demand, sectoral value added, and population growth on water resource quality and mortality rate: it is time to stop waiting around

It is an overwhelming concern that increases in global average temperature lead to serious consequences on the natural environment in the form of deteriorating water resource quality and damaging healthcare sustainability agenda. The sustainable innovation forum (COP21) shows a high concern on climate changes and suggested to reduce global average temperature less than 2 °C. The study brings an idea from the stated theme and analyzed the relationship between climate change and water resource quality in order to redesign economic and environmental policies to improve water quality and healthcare sustainability in the context of Pakistan. The country has serious issues regarding the provision of safe drinking water, improved water resource quality, and healthcare sustainability, which can be achieved by sustainable policies to handle the extreme temperature in Pakistan. The study employed simultaneous generalized method of moments (GMM) technique in order to estimate parameters of the study during the period of 1980-2016. The results show that energy demand and industry value added substantially decrease water resource quality (WRQ), while agriculture value added and per capita income significantly increase WRQ in a country. The other regression apparatus, where health expenditures serve as the response variable, shows that average temperature, industry value added, population growth, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows significantly increase healthcare expenditures while WRQ has a negative impact on healthcare expenditures in a country. The final regression model shows that average temperature and per capita income decrease, while WRQ and industrial value added increase mortality rate in a country. The overall results confirm that WRQ affected by climate change, energy demand, and population growth that need sustainable water resource policies in order to achieve long-term sustained growth. The climate actions required more policy instruments to combat environmental challenges that should support healthcare sustainability agenda across the globe.

Projections of temperature-related cause-specific mortality under climate change scenarios in a coastal city of China

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have been conducted to project temperature-related mortality under climate change scenarios. However, most of the previous evidence has been limited to the total or non-accidental mortality, resulting in insufficient knowledge on the influence of climate change on different types of disease.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to project future temperature impact on mortality from 16 causes under multiple climate change models in a coastal city of China.

METHODS

We first estimated the baseline exposure-response relationships between daily average temperature and cause-specific mortality during 2009-2018. Then, we acquired downscaled future temperature projections from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Finally, we combined these exposure-response associations with projected temperature to estimate the change in the temperature-related death burden in different future decades in comparison to the 2010 s, assuming no demographic changes and population acclimatization.

RESULTS

We found a consistently decreasing trend in cold-related mortality but a steep rise in heat-related mortality among 16 causes under climate change scenarios. Compared with the 2010 s, the net change in the fraction of total mortality attributable to temperature are projected to -0.54% (95% eCI: -1.69% to 0.71%) and -0.38% (95% eCI: -2.73% to 2.12%) at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. However, the magnitude of future cold and heat effects varied by different causes of death. A net reduction of future temperature-related death burden was observed among 10 out of 15 causes, with estimates ranging from -5.02% (95% eCI: -17.42% to 2.50%) in mental disorders to -1.01% (95% eCI: -5.56% to 3.28%) in chronic lower respiratory disease. Conversely, the rest diseases are projected to experience a potential net increase of temperature-related death burden, with estimates ranging from 0.44% (95% eCI: -4.40% to 6.02%) in ischemic heart disease and 4.80% (95% eCI: -0.04% to 9.84%) in external causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicates that the mortality burden of climate change varied greatly by the mortality categories. Further investigations are warranted to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on different types of disease across various regions.

Phenotyping for drought resistance in bread wheat using physiological and biochemical traits

Drought is one of the most prominent limiting factors that negatively affect crop productivity by manipulating its physiological pathway. One hundred twenty diverse bread wheat genotypes were used in a pot experiment to explore the relationship among their fifteen physio-biochemical traits (PBT) by using multivariate analysis, heatmapping and stress tolerance index (STI) for grain yield as a marker trait to identify high yielding genotype with maximum stress tolerance capability. Increased proline and sugar accumulation were observed from control to moisture deficient environments by 159% and 122%, respectively. Moreover, leaf membrane stability index (LMSI), leaf relative water content (LRWC), relative dry weight (RDW), chlorophyll content, leaf surface area (LSA), Leaf succulence (LS), canopy temperature depression (CTD), relative excised leaf water loss (RELWL) and leaf osmotic potential (LOP) showed significantly decreasing trend in drought stress treatment as compared to well-watered plants by -21%, -21%, -34%, -22%, -38%, -37%, -46%, -18% and -35% respectively. Additionally, principal component analysis and genotype by trait biplot analysis showed that initial 7 principal components (PC1 to PC7) represented 77.27% and 79.02% of total cumulative variation under control and drought stress respectively. Genotypic-Phenotypic correlation revealed that most of the attributes were higher in case of genotypic correlation component (rg) as compared to the phenotypic correlation component (rp) indicating more genetic association between traits. The darker and lighter colour scale produced by heatmap exhibited contrasting nature of genotypes, as positive side with higher values represented drought resistance while values on the negative side with lower values showed susceptible performance of genotypes. Our results concluded that the studied PBT associated with STI for grain yield are the main factors which may contribute in improved productivity of wheat crop and if these traits show appropriate performance under stress condition the crop will show the more productive returns under changing climate.

Projection of Temperature-Related Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany: Moving on From the Paris Agreement on Climate Change

BACKGROUND

Substantial efforts are required to limit global warming to under 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as the target (Paris Agreement goal). We set out to project future temperature-related myocardial infarction (MI) events in Augsburg, Germany, at increases in warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C.

METHODS

Using daily time series of MI cases and temperature projections under two climate scenarios, we projected changes in temperature-related MIs at different increases in warming, assuming no changes in population structure or level of adaptation.

RESULTS

In a low-emission scenario that limits warming to below 2 °C throughout the 21st century, temperature-related MI cases will decrease slightly by -6 (confidence interval -60; 50) per decade at 1.5 °C of warming. In a high-emission scenario going beyond the Paris Agreement goals, temperature-related MI cases will increase by 18 (-64; 117) and 63 (-83; 257) per decade with warming of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The future burden of temperature-related MI events in Augsburg at 2 °C and 3 °C of warming will be greater than at 1.5 °C. Fulfilling the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 °C is therefore essential to avoid additional MI events due to climate change.

The Impact of Non-optimum Ambient Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Multi-county Observational Study in Hunan, China

The ambient temperature–health relationship is of growing interest as the climate changes. Previous studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and mortality or morbidity, however, there is little literature available on the ambient temperature effects on year of life lost (YLL). Thus, we aimed to quantify the YLL attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature. We obtained data from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2017 of 70 counties in Hunan, China. In order to combine the effects of each county, we used YLL rate as a health outcome indicator. The YLL rate was equal to the total YLL divided by the population of each county, and multiplied by 100,000. We estimated the associations between ambient temperature and YLL with a distributed lag non-linear model (DNLM) in a single county, and then pooled them in a multivariate meta-regression. The daily mean YLL rates were 22.62 y/(p·100,000), 10.14 y/(p·100,000) and 2.33 y/(p·100,000) within the study period for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease death. Ambient temperature was responsible for advancing a substantial fraction of YLL, with attributable fractions of 10.73% (4.36–17.09%) and 16.44% (9.09–23.79%) for non-accidental and cardiovascular disease death, respectively. However, the ambient temperature effect was not significantly for respiratory disease death, corresponding to 5.47% (−2.65–13.60%). Most of the YLL burden was caused by a cold temperature than the optimum temperature, with an overall estimate of 10.27% (4.52–16.03%) and 15.94% (8.82–23.05%) for non-accidental and cardiovascular disease death, respectively. Cold and heat temperature-related YLLs were higher in the elderly and females than the young and males. Extreme cold temperature had an effect on all age groups in different kinds of disease-caused death. This study highlights that general preventative measures could be important for moderate temperatures, whereas quick and effective measures should be provided for extreme temperatures.

Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China

Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures in the twenty-first century and is likely to intensify population exposure to heat during the warm season and, as a result, increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths. While earlier studies of heat exposure and related health impacts generally focused on the acute effects of short-term exposure indicated by high daily temperature or several days of very hot weather, recent research has suggested that small changes in seasonal average temperature over a long period of time is likely to pose significant health risk as well. Using downscaled climate projections under three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios, high-spatial-resolution population data, and the latest population projections by the United Nations, we aim at projecting future changes in long-term population exposure to summer heat across China in the mid- and late-twenty-first century resulting from global climate change. As the impacts of population growth are often overlooked in projecting future changes in heat exposure, we estimated changes in population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter over two future 20-year time periods and compared them with changes in temperature only. Our analysis shows that, nationally, population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter is projected to increase by 2.2 °C relative to the current situation in the 2050s and by 2.5 °C in the 2070s, as the result of climate change and population growth. Despite the foreseeable population stabilization in China, changes in population-weighted temperature are projected to be higher than changes in temperature itself for the majority of the 33 provinces (ranging from 0.02 °C to 1.27 °C, or 1% to 126% higher in the 2050s and from 0.02 °C to 1.16 °C, or 1% to 73% higher in the 2070s), with the largest differences mainly occurring in Western China. The impact of urbanization is projected to be relatively insignificant. Our findings provide evidence of possible underestimation of future changes in long-term exposure to summer heat if the effect of population growth is not factored in.

Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of heat stroke in China

Heat stroke (HS) is a fatal disease caused by thermal damage in the body, and it has a very high mortality rate. In 2015, the People's Liberation Army Professional Committee of Critical Care Medicine published the first expert consensus on HS in China, Expert consensus on standardized diagnosis and treatment for heat stroke. With an increased understanding of HS and new issues that emerged during the HS treatment in China in recent years, the 2015 consensus no longer meet the requirements for HS prevention and treatment. It is necessary to update the consensus to include the latest research evidence and establish a new consensus that has broader coverage, is more practical and is more in line with China's national conditions. This new expert consensus includes new concept of HS, recommendations for laboratory tests and auxiliary examinations, new understanding of diagnosis and differential diagnosis, On-site emergency treatment and In-hospital treatment, translocation of HS patients and prevention of HS.

Characterizing the role of socioeconomic pathways in shaping future urban heat-related challenges

Urban dwellers worldwide are increasingly affected by more frequent and intense extreme temperature events, ongoing urbanization, and changes in socioeconomic conditions. Decades of research have shown that vulnerability is a crucial determinant of heat-related risk and mortality in cities, yet assessments of future urban heat-related challenges have largely overlooked the contribution of changes in socioeconomic conditions to future heat-related risk and mortality. The scenario framework for climate change research, made up of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSPs) combined with climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), facilitates the integration of socioeconomic scenarios into climate risks assessments. In this study, we used Greater Houston (Texas) as a case study to implement the scenario framework at the intra-urban scale. Integrating locally extended SSPs along with a range of sectoral modelling approaches, we combined projections of urban extreme heat - which account for SSP-specific urban heat islands - with projections of future population and vulnerability. We then produced estimates of future heat-related risk and mortality for 2041-2060 (2050s) summers at Census tract level, for multiple combinations of climate and socioeconomic scenarios. Using a scenario matrix, we showed that the projected ~15,738-24,521 future summer excess mortalities compared to 1991-2010 are essentially driven by population growth and changes in vulnerability, with changes in climatic conditions alone being of little influence. We outline methods to apply the new scenario framework at intra-urban scale and to better characterize the contribution of socioeconomic pathways to future urban climate risks. This socio-climatic approach provides comprehensive estimates of future climate risks in urban areas, which are essential for adaptation planning under climatic and socioeconomic uncertainty.

Comparing adaptation ability towards climate change impacts between the youth and the older fishermen

In recent years, a considerable amount of studies published locally which focused on the influence of age on climate change ability. Accordingly, this has driven the present study to achieve its main objective which is to compare the adaptation ability between youth and older fishermen. The current research is quantitative in nature; hence, a survey was conducted on a total of 259 youth and older fishermen residing in different states of Malaysia, namely Pulau Pinang, Terengganu, Johor, and Kedah. The present study managed to conclude a unique and important result which stated that youth and older fishermen within the context of Malaysia have an equally strong adaptation ability. In regard to this matter, a number of recommendations were presented at the end of this paper with the hope that it can act as a basis for future scholars to conduct more climate change related studies.

Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.

Heatwaves are expected to increase under climate change, and so are the associated deaths. Here the authors determine the regional high temperature thresholds for 27 metropolises in China and analyze the changes to heat-related mortality, showing that the additional global-warming temperature increase of 0.5°C, from 1.5°C to 2.0°C, will lead to tens of thousands of additional deaths, annually.

Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China

BACKGROUND

This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized.

SOURCES OF DATA

Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found.

GROWING POINTS

Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing.

AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.

Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities

Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.

Extreme temperature and mortality: evidence from China

The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events are expected to rise in the future and increase the related health risks of human beings. Using a novel, nationwide dataset that links extreme temperature and mortality, we estimated the short-term and long-term effects of extreme temperature on mortality in China during 2002-2013. Both extreme hot and extreme cold had immediate and long-term effects on all-cause mortality. Annual deaths per 100,000 people due to extreme hot and cold in the long term were considerably larger compared to the short term. The change in cold spell duration indicator exhibited the greatest effects on annual deaths per 100,000 people among a set of extreme weather indicators. Furthermore, cities with low economic development levels were more vulnerable to extreme temperature, compared to cities with high economic development levels. Our results offer important policy implications for developing a regional-specific extreme weather plan to handle extreme temperature events in China.

Projections for temperature-related years of life lost from cardiovascular diseases in the elderly in a Chinese city with typical subtropical climate

OBJECTIVE

Extreme temperature is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, and the elderly are particularly vulnerable to temperature variation. Global warming and the increasingly aging population are two major global challenges for human health; thus, an urgent need exists to project the temperature-related cardiovascular disease burden regarding both of the aforementioned factors. We aimed to the project temperature-related burden of cardiovascular diseases using years of life lost (YLL) in the elderly in a Chinese city with typical subtropical climate.

METHODS

A retrospective time-series study was first conducted to estimate cardiovascular disease burden associated with temperature in the elderly from 2008 to 2015 in Ningbo, China. Then, future projections considering demographic change and adaptation under 19 global-scale climate models (GCMs) and 3 different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s were estimated.

RESULTS

The exposure-response curve for temperature on YLL from cardiovascular diseases was U-shaped, with increased YLL for both higher- and lower- than optimal temperature. The projected annual increase in heat-related YLL was outweighed by the decrease in cold-related YLL. However, monthly analysis demonstrated that temperature-related YLL will increase significantly in August. Additionally, heat-related YLL is projected to increase 3.1-11.5 times for the 2050s and 2070s relative to baseline, when considering demographic changes, even with 30% adaptation taken into consideration.

CONCLUSIONS

Although annual YLL from cardiovascular diseases in the elderly associated with temperature will decrease in the future, heat-related YLL will increase tremendously, which indicates that more adaptation strategies and greenhouse emission control measures should be undertaken to reduce the future heat-related burden of cardiovascular diseases in the elderly.

Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.