Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Mortality risk and burden of sudden cardiac arrest associated with hot nights, heatwaves, cold spells, and non-optimum temperatures in 0.88 million patients: An individual-level case-crossover study

Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) is a global health concern, imposing a substantial mortality burden. However, the understanding of the impact of various extreme temperature events, when accounting for the effect of daily average temperature on SCA, remains incomplete. Additionally, the assessment of SCA mortality burden associated with temperatures from an individual-level design is limited. This nationwide case-crossover study collected individual SCA death records across all (2844) county-level administrative units in the Chinese Mainland from 2013 to 2019. Four definitions for hot nights and ten for both cold spells and heatwaves were established using various temperature thresholds and durations. Conditional logistic regression models combined with distributed lag nonlinear models were employed to estimate the cumulative exposure-response relationships. Based on 887,662 SCA decedents, this analysis found that both hot nights [odds ratio (OR): 1.28; attributable fraction (AF): 1.32 %] and heatwaves (OR: 1.40; AF: 1.29 %) exhibited significant added effects on SCA mortality independent of daily average temperatures, while cold spells were not associated with an elevated SCA risk after accounting for effects of temperatures. Cold temperatures [below the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)] accounted for a larger mortality burden than high temperatures (above the MMT) [AF: 12.2 % vs. 1.5 %]. Higher temperature-related mortality risks and burdens were observed in patients who experienced out-of-hospital cardiac arrest compared to those with in-hospital cardiac arrest. This nationwide study presents the most compelling and comprehensive evidence of the elevated mortality risk and burden of SCA associated with extreme temperature events and ambient temperatures amid global warming.

Associations between various types of mortality and temperature variability distinguishing the intraday and interday effects in South Korea

BACKGROUND

The association between temperature variability (TV) and elevated mortality risks is widely known. Yet, few studies investigated the distinct effects of intraday and interday temperature fluctuations considering age-specific, gender-specific, and cause-specific mortality stratified by four seasons.

OBJECTIVES

We investigate the associations between total, intraday, and interday temperature variabilities and total, age-specific, gender-specific, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality year-round and also stratified by four seasons.

METHODS

We collected district-level daily data for temperature and total, age-specific, gender-specific, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in South Korea from 2011 to 2021 (N = 3,113,425). TV indices (i.e., total TV, intraday TV, and interday TV) were computed as the standard deviations of daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures over a lag of one to seven days. The associations between TV and mortality were evaluated by a space-time-stratified case-crossover design with quasi-Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Mortality risks varied based on the type of TV index. The associations also differed depending on the mortality type and the season. Year-round associations showed interday TV was generally associated with elevated mortality risks (total mortality: 0.30% (95% CI: 0.07%, 0.52%), 65+ mortality: 0.32% (95% CI: 0.07%, 0.58%), female mortality: 0.49% (95% CI: 0.16%, 0.82%), CVD mortality: 0.47% (95% CI: 0.02%, 0.92%) on lag0-7) while intraday TV was not significantly associated with increased risk of mortality except for the male mortality, 0.68% (95% CI: 0.04%, 1.32%) on lag0-7. Season-stratified analysis revealed that TV-related mortality risks were high consistently in the spring season and generally in the summer season while the associations were generally negative in fall and insignificant in winter.

CONCLUSION

This study provided evidence on the season-stratified, independent impacts of intraday and interday temperature variabilities on total, age-specific, gender-specific, and cause-specific mortality risks in South Korea drawing attention to the need of targeted policies to alleviate the impacts on human health.

The effect of ambient temperatures on hospital admissions for kidney diseases in Central Australia

This study aimed to quantify risk of hospitalisations for kidney diseases related to ambient temperature in Central Australia, Northern Territory (NT). Daily hospitalisation data were extracted for Alice Springs Hospital, Central Australia, 2010-2021. The association between daily mean temperature and daily hospital admissions for total kidney and specific kidney conditions was assessed using a quasi-Poisson Generalized Linear Model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model. A total of 52,057 hospitalisations associated with kidney diseases were recorded. In general, risk of specific kidney related hospitalisations was immediate due to hot temperatures and prolonged due to cold temperatures. Relative to the minimum-risk temperature (5.1 °C), at 31 °C, cumulative relative risk (RR) of hospitalisations for total kidney disease (TKD) was 1.297 [95% CI 1.164,1.446] over lag0-1 days, for chronic kidney disease (CKD) cumulative RR was 1.269 [95% CI 1.115,1.444] and for kidney failure (KF) cumulative RR was 1.252 [95% CI 1.107,1.416] at lag 0, and for urinary tract infection (UTI) cumulative RR was 1.522 [95% CI 1.072,2.162] over lag0-7 days. At 16 °C and over lag0-7 days, cumulative RR of hospitalisations for TKD was 1.320 [95% CI 1.135,1.535], for CKD was 1.232 [95% CI 1.025,1.482], for RF was 1.233 [95% CI 1.035,1.470] and for UTI was 1.597 [95% CI 1.143, 2.231]. Both cold and hot temperatures were also associated with increased risks of kidney related total hospitalisations among First Nations Australians and women. Overall, temperature attributable to 13.7% (i.e. 7138 cases) of kidney related hospitalisations with higher attributable hospitalisations from cold temperature. Given the significant burden of kidney disease and projected increases in extreme temperatures associated with climate change in NT including Central Australia there is a need to implement public health and environmental health risk reduction strategies and awareness programs to mitigate potential adverse health effects of extreme temperatures.

Association of residential air pollution and green space with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in individuals with diabetes: an 11-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

To assess the long-term impact of residential air pollution and green space exposure on cause-specific mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

This study includes 174,063 participants newly diagnosed with T2DM from a prospective cohort in Shanghai, China, enrolled between 2011 and 2013. Residential annual levels of air pollutants, including fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), along with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were derived from satellite-based exposure models.

FINDINGS

During a median follow-up of 7.9 years (equivalent to 1,333,343 person-years), this study recorded 22,205 deaths. Higher exposure to PM2.5 was significantly associated with increased risks for all mortality outcomes, whilst PM2.5-10 showed no significant impacts. The strongest associations of PM2.5 were observed for diabetes with peripheral vascular diseases [hazard ratio (HR): 2.70; per 10 μg/m3 increase] and gastrointestinal cancer (2.44). Effects of NO2 became significant at concentrations exceeding approximately 45 μg/m³, with the highest associations for lung cancer (1.20) and gastrointestinal cancer (1.19). Conversely, each interquartile range increase in NDVI (0.10) was linked to reduced mortality risks across different causes, with HRs ranging from 0.76 to 1.00. The association between greenness and mortality was partly and significantly mediated by reduced PM2.5 (23.80%) and NO2 (26.60%). There was a significant and negative interaction between NO2 and greenness, but no interaction was found between PM2.5 and greenness.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings highlight the vulnerability of individuals with T2DM to the adverse health effects of air pollution and emphasise the potential protective effects of greenness infrastructure.

FUNDING

The 6th Three-year Action Program of Shanghai Municipality for Strengthening the Construction of Public Health System (GWVI-11.1-22), the National Key Research and Development Program (2022YFC3702701), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82030103, 82373532).

Impact of hot and cold nights on pneumonia hospitalisations in children under five years: Evidence from low-, middle-, and high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown that abnormal temperature at night is a risk factor for respiratory health. However, there is limited evidence on the impact of hot and cold nights on cause-specific diseases such as pneumonia, which is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children.

METHODS

We collected daily data on pneumonia hospitalisations in children under five years from 2011 to 2017 in three low-, middle- and high-income countries (Bangladesh, China, and Australia). The intensity of hot and cold nights was measured by excess temperature. A space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis was used to estimate the association between hot and cold nights and childhood pneumonia hospitalisations. We further estimated the fraction of childhood pneumonia hospitalisations attributable to hot and cold nights.

RESULTS

Both hot and cold nights were associated with an increased risk of hospitalisations for childhood pneumonia in low-, middle-, and high-income countries, with a greater disease burden from hot nights. Specifically, the fraction of childhood pneumonia attributable to hot nights was the largest in Australia [21.2%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 11.8%-28.1%], followed by Bangladesh (15.2%, 95% CI: 4.1%-23.8%) and China (2.7%, 95% CI: 0.4%-4.7%). Additionally, the fraction of childhood pneumonia attributable to cold nights was 1.3% (95% CI: 0.4%-2.0%) in Bangladesh and 0.4% (95% CI: 0.1%-0.7%) in China.

CONCLUSION

This multi-country study suggests that hot and cold nights are not only associated with a higher risk of pneumonia hospitalisations in children but also responsible for substantial fraction of hospitalisations, with a greater impact from hot nights.

Association between ambient temperature and cause-specific mortality: An individual-level case-crossover study in Suzhou, China

The changing climate poses a growing challenge to the population health. The objective of this study was to assess the association between ambient temperature and cause-specific mortality in Suzhou. Based on the non-accidental mortality data collected during 2008-2022 in Suzhou, China, this study utilized an individual-level case-crossover design to evaluate the associations of temperature with cause-specific mortality. We applied a distributed lag nonlinear model with a maximum lag of 14 days to account for lag effects. Mortality risk due to extreme cold (<2.5th percentile) and extreme heat (>97.5th percentile) was analyzed. A total of 634,530 non-accidental deaths were analyzed in this study. An inverse J-shaped exposure-response relationship was observed between ambient temperature and non-accidental mortality, with the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at 29.1℃. The relative risk (RR) of mortality associated with extreme cold (2.5th percentile) was 1.37 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.30, 1.44], higher than estimate of 1.09 (95 %CI: 1.07, 1.11) for extreme heat (97.5th percentile) relative to the MMT. Heat effect lasted for 2-3 days, while cold effect could persist for almost 14 days. Higher mortality risk estimates were observed for cardiorespiratory deaths compared to total deaths, with statistically significant between-group differences. Consequently, this study provides first-hand evidence on the associations between ambient temperatures and mortality risks from various causes, which could help local government and policy-makers in designing targeted strategies and public health measures against the menace of climate change.

Association of cause-specific hospital admissions with high and low temperatures in Thailand: a nationwide time series study

Background

Non-optimum temperatures are associated with a considerable mortality burden. However, evidence of temperature with all-cause and cause-specific hospital admissions in tropical countries like Thailand is still limited.

Methods

Daily all-cause and cause-specific hospital admissions for outpatient and inpatient visits were collected from 77 provinces in Thailand from January 2013 to August 2019. A two-stage time-series approach was applied to assess the association between non-optimum temperatures and hospital admission. We first fitted the province-specific temperature-morbidity association and then obtained the national association in the second stage using a random-effects meta-analysis regression. The attributable fraction (AF) of hospital admissions with 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI) was calculated.

Findings

A total of 878,513,460 all-cause outpatient admissions and 32,616,600 all-cause inpatient admissions were included in this study. We observed a J-shaped relationship with the risk of hospital admissions increasing for both cold and hot temperatures. The overall AFs of all-cause hospital admissions due to non-optimum temperatures were 7.57% (95% eCI: 6.47%, 8.39%) for outpatient visits and 6.17% (95% eCI: 4.88%, 7.20%) for inpatient visits. Hot temperatures were responsible for most of the AFs of hospital admissions, with 6.71% (95% eCI: 5.80%, 7.41%) for outpatient visits and 4.50% (95% eCI: 3.62%, 5.19%) for inpatient visits. The burden of hospital admissions was greater in females and in children and adolescents (0-19 years). The fractions of hospital admissions attributable to non-optimum temperatures exhibited variation among disease categories and geographical areas.

Interpretation

The results indicate that low and high temperature has a significant impact on hospital admissions, especially among the females, and children and adolescents (0-19 years). The current investigation could provide evidence for policymakers to develop adaptation strategies and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on public health in Thailand and other tropical countries.

Funding

National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT): E-Asia Joint Research Program: Climate change impact on natural and human systems (N33A650979).

Hourly Heat Exposure and Acute Ischemic Stroke

Importance

Previous studies have demonstrated the associations of daily high temperature with hospitalizations and mortality from ischemic stroke, but the hourly association of ambient heat and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) onset has been rarely examined.

Objectives

To evaluate the association between hourly high ambient temperature and the onset of AIS.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted using a nationwide registry that collects data from more than 200 stroke centers in China. Participants were adult patients with AIS who were hospitalized in the warm seasons between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2021.

Exposures

Hourly temperature and single-hour temperature exposure lag up to 24 hours before the AIS onset (lag 0 hours to lag 24 hours).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was onset of AIS. Associations between hourly mean temperatures and AIS onset were analyzed using conditional logistic regression integrated with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Stratification analyses were applied to examine potential association modifiers. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of the results.

Results

A total of 82 455 patients with AIS (mean [SD] age, 65.8 [11.9] years; 52 267 males [63.4%]) were included in the final analysis. A monotonically increasing risk of AIS onset was associated with higher temperatures. The excess AIS risk occurred immediately at lag 0 hours and persisted for 10 hours. Compared with the reference temperature (12.1 °C), the cumulative odds ratio (OR) over lag 0 to 10 hours of AIS onset associated with extremely high temperature (33.3 °C) was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.65-2.13) nationwide. The exposure-response curve was steeper in the north than in the south (OR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.53-2.11] vs 1.57 [95% CI, 1.31-1.87]). The ORs were greater for males and patients with a history of dyslipidemia or atrial fibrillation, but the differences were not significant.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this study suggest that hourly heat exposure is associated with increased risk of AIS onset. This finding may benefit the formulation of public health strategies to reduce cerebrovascular risk associated with high ambient temperature under global warming.

Time-series analysis of meteorological factors and emergency department visits due to dog/cat bites in Jinshan area, China

Background

Meteorological factors play an important role in human health. Clarifying the occurrence of dog and cat bites (DCBs) under different meteorological conditions can provide key insights into the prevention of DCBs. Therefore, the objective of the study was to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and DCBs and to provide caution to avoid the incidents that may occur by DCBs.

Methods

In this study, data on meteorological factors and cases of DCBs were retrospectively collected at the Shanghai Climate Center and Jinshan Hospital of Fudan University, respectively, in 2016-2020. The distributed lag non-linear and time series model (DLNM) were used to examine the effect of meteorological elements on daily hospital visits due to DCBs.

Results

A total of 26,857 DCBs were collected ranging from 1 to 39 cases per day. The relationship between ambient temperature and DCBs was J-shaped. DCBs were positively correlated with daily mean temperature (rs = 0.588, P < 0.01). The relative risk (RR) of DCBs was associated with high temperature (RR = 1.450; 95% CI [1.220-1.722]). Female was more susceptible to high temperature than male. High temperature increased the risk of DCBs.

Conclusions

The extremely high temperature increased the risk of injuries caused by DCBs, particularly for females. These data may help to develop public health strategies for potentially avoiding the occurrence of DCBs.

The association between climate and emergency department visits for renal and urinary disease in Charlottesville, Virginia

Diseases of the kidney and urinary tract impose a significant portion of the total disease burden, and linkages to high temperature exposure suggest that this burden may increase in the near future. We examined the association between climate and daily emergency department (ED) visits for kidney and urinary disease at the University of Virginia main hospital in Charlottesville, Virginia from 2005 to 2020. Generalized additive models and distributed lag nonlinear models were used to examine these associations over a 21-day lag period. After testing a variety of weather variables from observations taken at the Charlottesville, Albemarle County Airport weather station, 1 p.m. temperature was found to have the strongest association with ED visits for renal and urinary visits while controlling for seasonal and trend factors, air quality, day of the week, and wintry weather. The relative risk of ED visits exhibited a stronger association with high temperatures compared to low temperatures. The heat response was pronounced at short lags (0-1 days) with the relative risk (RR) increasing when 1 p.m. temperatures exceeded 20°C and peaking at 29°C (RR = 1.28). By comparison, low temperatures (≤0°C) exhibited a negative association (RR = 0.80 at -10°C) at short lags (0-1 day), with evidence of a weak RR increase at lags of 2-3 and 9-14 days. These results for ED visitation are consistent with other studies linking high temperatures to acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease, the development of kidney stones, and other associated illnesses. A better understanding of the impact of temperature extremes in generating or exacerbating existing conditions could assist medical health professionals in the prevention and management of these diseases during extreme weather events.

Effects of apparent temperature on daily outpatient and inpatient visits for cause-specific respiratory diseases in Ganzhou, China: a time series study

BACKGROUND

Non-optimum temperatures are associated with increased risk of respiratory diseases, but the effects of apparent temperature (AT) on respiratory diseases remain to be investigated.

METHODS

Using daily data from 2016 to 2020 in Ganzhou, a large city in southern China, we analyzed the impact of AT on outpatient and inpatient visits for respiratory diseases. We considered total respiratory diseases and five subtypes (influenza and pneumonia, upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD]). Our analysis employed a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a generalized additive model (GAM).

RESULTS

We recorded 94,952 outpatients and 72,410 inpatients for respiratory diseases. We found AT significantly non-linearly associated with daily outpatient and inpatient visits for total respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia, and URTI, primarily during comfortable AT levels, while it was exclusively related with daily inpatient visits for LRTI and COPD. Moderate heat (32.1 °C, the 75.0th centile) was observed with a significant effect on both daily outpatient and inpatient visits for total respiratory diseases at a relative risk of 1.561 (1.161, 2.098) and 1.276 (1.027, 1.585), respectively (both P < 0.05), while the results of inpatients became insignificant with the adjustment for CO and O3. The attributable fractions in outpatients and inpatients were as follows: total respiratory diseases (24.43% and 18.69%), influenza and pneumonia (31.54% and 17.33%), URTI (23.03% and 32.91%), LRTI (37.49% and 30.00%), asthma (9.83% and 3.39%), and COPD (30.67% and 10.65%). Stratified analyses showed that children ≤5 years old were more susceptible to moderate heat than older participants.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, our results indicated moderate heat increase the risk of daily outpatient and inpatient visits for respiratory diseases, especially among children under the age of 5.

Cause-specific mortality and burden attributable to temperature variability in China

BACKGROUND

Few large-scale, nationwide studies have assessed cause-specific mortality risks and burdens associated with temperature variability (TV).

OBJECTIVE

To estimate associations between TV and cause-specific mortality and quantify the mortality burden in China.

METHODS

Data on daily total and cause-specific mortality in 272 Chinese cities between 2013 and 2015 were recorded. TVs were computed as the standard deviations of daily minimum and maximum temperatures over a duration of 2 to 7 days. The time-series quasi-Poisson regression model with adjustment of the cumulative effects of daily mean temperature over the same duration was applied to evaluate the city-specific associations of TV and mortality. Then, we pooled the effect estimates using a random-effects meta-analysis and calculated the mortality burdens.

RESULTS

Overall, TV showed significant and positive associations with total and cause-specific mortality. The TV-mortality associations were generally stronger when using longer durations. A 1 °C increase in TV at 0-7 days (TV0-7) was associated with a 0.79 % [95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.55 %, 0.96 %] increase in total mortality. Mortality fractions attributable to TV0-7 were 4.37 % for total causes, 4.75 % for overall cardiovascular disease, 4.37 % for coronary heart disease, 5.05 % for stroke, 8.28 % for ischaemic stroke, 1.08 % for haemorrhagic stroke, 6.93 % for respiratory disease, and 6.81 % for COPD, respectively. The mortality risk and burden were generally higher in the temperate monsoon zone, females, and elders.

CONCLUSION

This nationwide study indicated that TV was an independent risk factor of mortality, and could result in significant burden for main cardiorespiratory diseases.

Heat exposure and hospitalizations for chronic kidney disease in China: a nationwide time series study in 261 major Chinese cities

BACKGROUND

Climate change profoundly shapes the population health at the global scale. However, there was still insufficient and inconsistent evidence for the association between heat exposure and chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

In the present study, we studied the association of heat exposure with hospitalizations for cause-specific CKD using a national inpatient database in China during the study period of hot season from 2015 to 2018. Standard time-series regression models and random-effects meta-analysis were developed to estimate the city-specific and national averaged associations at a 7 lag-day span, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 768,129 hospitalizations for CKD was recorded during the study period. The results showed that higher temperature was associated with elevated risk of hospitalizations for CKD, especially in sub-tropical cities. With a 1 °C increase in daily mean temperature, the cumulative relative risks (RR) over lag 0-7 d were 1.008 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003-1.012] for nationwide. The attributable fraction of CKD hospitalizations due to high temperatures was 5.50%. Stronger associations were observed among younger patients and those with obstructive nephropathy. Our study also found that exposure to heatwaves was associated with added risk of hospitalizations for CKD compared to non-heatwave days (RR = 1.116, 95% CI 1.069-1.166) above the effect of daily mean temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term heat exposure may increase the risk of hospitalization for CKD. Our findings provide insights into the health effects of climate change and suggest the necessity of guided protection strategies against the adverse effects of high temperatures.

Low ambient temperature increases the risk and burden of atrial fibrillation episodes: A nationwide case-crossover study in 322 Chinese cities

BACKGROUND

Non-optimum ambient temperature has recently been acknowledged as an independent risk factor for disease burden, but its impact on atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes was rarely evaluated.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the associations between ambient non-optimum temperature and symptom onset of AF episodes and calculate the corresponding disease burden.

METHODS

We conducted an individual-level, time-stratified, case-crossover analysis based on a nationwide registry, which comprises of 94,711 eligible AF patients from 1993 hospitals in 322 Chinese cities from January 2015 to December 2021. Multiple moving 24 h average temperatures prior to the symptom onset of AF episodes were calculated as lag days. The associations were analyzed using conditional logistic regression combined with distributed lag non-linear models with a duration of lag 0-7 days, after controlling for criteria air pollutants. Stratification analyses were performed to explore possible effect modifiers.

RESULTS

There was a monotonically increasing relationship of AF onset risk with decreasing temperature. The excess AF risk occurred at lag 1 d and lasted for 5 days. Nationally, the cumulative relative risk of AF episode onset associated with extremely low temperature (-9.3 °C) over lag 0-7 d was 1.25 (95 % confidence interval: 1.08, 1.45), compared with the reference temperature (31.5 °C). The exposure-response curve was steeper in the south than in the north where there was levelling-off at lower temperature. Nationally, 7.59 % of acute AF episodes could be attributable to non-optimum temperatures. The attributable fraction was larger for southern residents, males and patients <65 years.

CONCLUSION

This nationwide study provides novel and robust evidence that declining ambient temperature could increase the risk of AF episode onset. We also provide the first-hand evidence that a considerable proportion of acute AF episodes could be attributable to non-optimum temperatures.

Heat-mortality relationship in North Carolina: Comparison using different exposure methods

BACKGROUND

Many studies have explored the heat-mortality relationship; however, comparability of results is hindered by the studies' use of different exposure methods.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated different methods for estimating exposure to temperature using individual-level data and examined the impacts on the heat-mortality relationship.

METHODS

We calculated different temperature exposures for each individual death by using a modeled, gridded temperature dataset and a monitoring station dataset in North Carolina for 2000-2016. We considered individual-level vs. county-level averages and measured vs. modeled temperature data. A case-crossover analysis was conducted to examine the heat-mortality risk under different exposure methods.

RESULTS

The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) (i.e., the temperature with the lowest mortality rate) for the monitoring station dataset was 23.87 °C and 22.67 °C (individual monitor and county average, respectively), whereas for the modeled temperature dataset the MMT was 19.46 °C and 19.61 °C (individual and county, respectively). We found higher heat-mortality risk while using temperature exposure estimated from monitoring stations compared to risk based on exposure using the modeled temperature dataset. Individual-aggregated monitoring station temperature exposure resulted in higher heat mortality risk (odds ratio (95% CI): 2.24 (95% CI: 2.21, 2.27)) for a relative temperature change comparing the 99th and 90th temperature percentiles, while modeled temperature exposure resulted in lower odds ratio of 1.27 (95% CI: 1.25, 1.29).

SIGNIFICANCE

Our findings indicate that using different temperature exposure methods can result in different temperature-mortality risk. The impact of using various exposure methods should be considered in planning health policies related to high temperatures, including under climate change. IMPACT STATEMENT: (1) We estimated the heat-mortality association using different methods to estimate exposure to temperature. (2) The mean temperature value among different exposure methods were similar although lower for the modeled data, however, use of the monitoring station temperature dataset resulted in higher heat-mortality risk than the modeled temperature dataset. (3) Differences in mortality risk from heat by urbanicity varies depending on the method used to estimate temperature exposure.

Fine and coarse particulate air pollution and hospital admissions for a wide range of respiratory diseases: a nationwide case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

The associations between fine and coarse particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM2.5-10) air pollution and hospital admissions for full-spectrum respiratory diseases were rarely investigated, especially for age-specific associations. We aim to estimate the age-specific associations of short-term exposures to PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 with hospital admissions for full-spectrum respiratory diseases in China.

METHODS

We conducted an individual-level case-crossover study based on a nationwide hospital-based registry including 153 hospitals across 20 provincial regions in China in 2013-20. We applied conditional logistic regression models and distributed lag models to estimate the exposure- and lag-response associations.

RESULTS

A total of 1 399 955 hospital admission records for various respiratory diseases were identified. The associations of PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 with total respiratory hospitalizations lasted for 4 days, and an interquartile range increase in PM2.5 (34.5 μg/m3) and PM2.5-10 (26.0 μg/m3) was associated with 1.73% [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.34%, 2.12%)] and 1.70% (95% CI: 1.31%, 2.10%) increases, respectively, in total respiratory hospitalizations over lag 0-4 days. Acute respiratory infections (i.e. pneumonia, bronchitis and bronchiolitis) were consistently associated with PM2.5 or PM2.5-10 exposure across different age groups. We found the disease spectrum varied by age, including rarely reported findings (i.e. acute laryngitis and tracheitis, and influenza) among children and well-established associations (i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, acute bronchitis and emphysema) among older populations. Besides, the associations were stronger in females, children and older populations.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide case-crossover study provides robust evidence that short-term exposure to both PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 was associated with increased hospital admissions for a wide range of respiratory diseases, and the spectra of respiratory diseases varied by age. Females, children and older populations were more susceptible.

Association between exposure to ambient air pollution and semen quality: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Accumulating evidence has linked exposure to ambient air pollution to a reduction in semen quality; however, the exposure-response associations are yet to be synthesized.

OBJECTIVE

To summarize the exposure-response associations between air pollution and semen quality.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science for relevant studies published before April 20, 2022. Studies investigating the exposure-response association of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, CO, and O₃ with semen quality written in English were included. Semen quality parameters included semen volume, sperm concentration, total sperm number, total motility, progressive motility, and normal forms. Random-effects and fixed-effects models were performed to synthesize associations in the meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The search returned 850 studies, 11 of which were eligible for meta-analysis. Each 10 μg/m³ increase of exposure to PM₁₀ and SO₂ was respectively associated with a 2.18 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.10 %-4.21 %) and 8.61 % (1.00 %-15.63 %) reduction in sperm concentration, and a 2.76 % (0.10 %-5.35 %) and 9.52 % (5.82 %-13.93 %) reduction in total sperm number. Each 10 μg/m³ increase of exposure to PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ was respectively associated with a 1.06 % (95 % CI: 0.31 %-1.82 %) and 0.75 % (0.43 %-1.08 %) reduction in total motility, and a 0.55 % (0.09 %-1.01 %) and 0.31 % (0.06 %-0.56 %) reduction in progressive motility. No association was observed for PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ with semen volume; PM_2.5, NO₂, CO, or O₃ with sperm concentration or total sperm number; and gaseous air pollutants with total or progressive motility. The association between air pollution and normal forms was not summarized due to insufficient number of studies. No significant publication bias was detected.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to ambient PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and SO₂ was inversely associated with sperm concentration, total sperm number, total motility, and/or progressive motility. Our findings add to the evidence that air pollution may lead to adverse effects on male reproductive system and suggest that reducing exposure to air pollution may help maintain better semen quality.

Ambient temperature variability and hospital admissions for pneumonia: A nationwide study

Few investigations have assessed the impact of short-term ambient temperature change on pneumonia risk. We aimed to study the relation of temperature variability (TV) with daily hospitalizations for pneumonia in China. We conducted a time-series study in 184 major cities by extracting daily hospital data between 2014 and 2017 from a medical insurance claims database of 0.28 billion beneficiaries. TV was calculated as standard deviation of daily minimum and maximum temperatures over exposure days. We estimated associations of pneumonia admissions with TV for each city using over-dispersed generalized linear models controlling for weather conditions and ambient air pollution, and pooled city-specific estimates using random effects meta-analyses. We also investigated exposure-response relationship curve and potential effect modifiers. We identified 4.2 million pneumonia hospitalizations during the study period. TV was positively related to daily pneumonia admissions. At the national-average level, each 1-°C increase in TV at 0-6 days' exposure corresponded to a 0.65 % (95 % CI: 0.34 %-0.96 %) increase in pneumonia admissions. An approximately linear exposure-response curve for the relation of TV with pneumonia admission was noted. The relations were more evident in cities with larger average age (P = 0.038). As the first study in China to assess the impact of temperature change on pneumonia on a national scale, our results indicated that acute TV exposure was related to higher admissions for pneumonia. Our findings should provide new insight into the health impacts associated with climate change.

Health Risks of Temperature Variability on Hospital Admissions in Cape Town, 2011-2016

Epidemiological studies have provided compelling evidence of associations between temperature variability (TV) and health outcomes. However, such studies are limited in developing countries. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between TV and hospital admissions for cause-specific diseases in South Africa. Hospital admission data for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and respiratory diseases (RD) were obtained from seven private hospitals in Cape Town from 1 January 2011 to 31 October 2016. Meteorological data were obtained from the South African Weather Service (SAWS). A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to investigate the association between TV and health outcomes after controlling for potential effect modifiers. A positive and statistically significant association between TV and hospital admissions for both diseases was observed, even after controlling for the non-linear and delayed effects of daily mean temperature and relative humidity. TV showed the greatest effect on the entire study group when using short lags, 0-2 days for CVD and 0-1 days for RD hospitalisations. However, the elderly were more sensitive to RD hospitalisation and the 15-64 year age group was more sensitive to CVD hospitalisations. Men were more susceptible to hospitalisation than females. The results indicate that more attention should be paid to the effects of temperature variability and change on human health. Furthermore, different weather and climate metrics, such as TV, should be considered in understanding the climate component of the epidemiology of these (and other diseases), especially in light of climate change, where a wider range and extreme climate events are expected to occur in future.

Associations and burdens of relative humidity with cause-specific mortality in three Chinese cities

This study aimed to investigate the association between relative humidity (RH) and various cause of mortality, and then quantify the RH-related mortality fraction of low and high RH under the assumption that causal effects exist. Daily cause-specific mortality counts from 2008 to 2011, and contemporaneous meteorological data in three Chinese cities were collected. Distributed lag nonlinear models were adopted to quantify the nonlinear and delayed effects of RH on mortality risk. Low and high RH were defined as RH lower or higher than the minimum mortality risk RH (MMRH), respectively. Corresponding RH-related mortality fractions were calculated in the explanatory analysis. From the three cities, 736,301 deaths were collected. RH (mean ± standard deviation) were 50.9 ± 20.0 for Beijing, 75.5 ± 8.6 for Chengdu, and 70.8 ± 14.6 for Nanjing. We found that low RH in Beijing and high RH (about 80-90%) in Chengdu was associated with increased all-cause mortality risk. Both low and high RH may increase the CVD mortality risk in Beijing. Both low and high (about 80-85%) RH may increase the COPD mortality risk in Chengdu. Low RH (about < 45%) was associated with increased diabetes mortality risk in Nanjing. Effects of extreme low and extreme high RH were delayed in these cities, except that extreme low effects on COPD mortality appeared immediately in Chengdu. The effects of extreme low RH are higher than that of the extreme high RH in Beijing and Nanjing, while contrary in Chengdu. Finally, under the causal effect assumption, 6.80% (95% eCI: 2.90, 10.73) all-cause mortality and 12.48% (95% eCI: 7.17, 16.80) CVD deaths in Beijing, 9.59% (95% eCI: 1.38, 16.88) COPD deaths in Chengdu, and 23.79% (95% eCI: 0.92, 387.93) diabetes mortality in Nanjing were attributable to RH. Our study provided insights into RH-mortality risk, helped draw relative intervention policies, and is also significant for future predictions of climate change effects under different scenarios.

Long-term exposure to outdoor light at night and mild cognitive impairment: A nationwide study in Chinese veterans

BACKGROUND

Evidence is limited for the association between outdoor light at night (LAN) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a transitional stage between normal aging and dementia and Alzheimer's disease in the elderly. In this study, the association between outdoor LAN and MCI was examined based on a multi-city study among veterans in China.

METHODS

A total of 5496 participants from 18 cities across China were investigated during 2009-2011, selected using a multi-stage random sampling method. Participants' cognitive function was firstly assessed using the Mini Mental State Examination and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment in the Chinese version, and then was further confirmed by clinical examination. Participants' exposure to outdoor LAN was estimated using the Global Radiance Calibrated Nighttime Lights Product at a spatial resolution of around 1 km. The mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to examine the association between outdoor LAN and MCI.

RESULTS

After controlling for covariates, odds ratio (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (95%CI) of MCI was 1.44 (95%CI: 1.36, 1.52) associated with per interquartile range (IQR = 21.17 nW/cm²/sr) increase in exposure to outdoor LAN during the 3 years before the investigation, and for categorical variable of LAN, the highest OR was observed for the highest against the lowest quartile of LAN with a monotonically increasing trend (p values for trend <0.001). Furthermore, higher ORs were observed for females, veterans who had less educational attainment, and had no regular social activities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed that exposure to excessive outdoor LAN was associated with higher risk of MCI. Effective measures should be taken to reduce LAN exposure, which may help to prevent MCI.

Short-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions for Sequelae of Stroke in Chinese Older Adults

Extensive evidence suggests that ambient air pollution contributes to a higher risk of hospital admissions for cerebrovascular diseases; however, its association with admissions for sequelae of stroke remains unclear. A time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted among 31,810 older adults who were admitted to hospital for sequelae of stroke in Guangzhou, China during 2016-2019. For each subject, daily residential exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3) was extracted from a validated grid data set. Conditional logistic regression models were used for exposure-response analyses. In single-pollutant models, each interquartile range (IQR) increase of lag 04-day exposure to CO (IQR: 0.25 mg/m3) and lag 3-day exposure to O3 (69.6 μg/m3) was significantly associated with a 4.53% (95% confidence interval: 1.67%, 7.47%) and 5.63% (1.92%, 9.48%) increase in odds of hospital admissions for sequelae of stroke, respectively. These associations did not significantly vary across age or sex. With further adjustment for each of the other pollutants in 2-pollutant models, the association for CO did not change significantly, while the association for O3 disappeared. We estimated that 7.72% of the hospital admissions were attributable to CO exposures. No significant or consistent association was observed for exposure to PM2.5, PM10, SO2, or NO2. In conclusion, short-term exposure to ambient CO, even at levels below the WHO air quality guideline, was significantly associated with an increased odds of hospital admissions for sequelae of stroke, which may lead to considerable excess hospital admissions.

Long-term exposure to PM2.5 constituents in relation to glucose levels and diabetes in middle-aged and older Chinese

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have indicated the associations between fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure and diabetes or glucose levels. However, evidence linking PM_2.5 constituents and diabetes or glucose levels was extensively scarce, particularly in developing countries. This study aimed to investigate the associations of exposure to PM_2.5 and its five constituents (black carbon [BC], organic matter [OM], nitrate [NO₃^-], sulfate [SO₄^2-], and ammonium [NH₄⁺]) with diabetes and glucose levels among the middle-aged and elderly Chinese populations.

METHODS

A national cross-sectional sample of participants aged 45+ years was enrolled from 28 provinces across China's mainland. Health examination and questionnaire survey for each respondent were performed during 2011-2012. Diabetes was determined by alternative definitions, and the main definition (MD) was self-report diabetes or antidiabetic medicine use or HbA_1c ≥6.5 or fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L or random glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L. Monthly exposure to PM_2.5 mass and its five constituents (BC, OM, NO₃^-, SO₄^2-, and NH₄⁺) for each participant at residence were estimated using satellite-based spatiotemporal prediction models. Generalized linear models and linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the effects of exposure to PM_2.5 and its constituents on diabetes or glucose levels, respectively. Stratification analyses were done by sex and age.

RESULTS

We included a total of 17,326 adults over 45 years in this study. The 3-year mean (interquartile range [IQR]) concentrations of PM_2.5, BC, OM, NO₃^-, SO₄^2-, and NH₄⁺ were 47.9 (27.4) µg/m³, 2.9 (2.2) µg/m³, 9.2 (6.6) µg/m³, 10.2 (9.4) µg/m³, 11.0 (5.2) µg/m³, and 7.1 (4.4) µg/m³, respectively. Per IQR rise in exposure to PM_2.5 was significantly associated with an increase of 0.133 mmol/L (95% confidence interval, 0.048-0.219) in glucose concentrations. Similar positive associations were observed for BC (0.097 mmol/L [0.012-0.181]), OM (0.160 mmol/L [0.065-0.256]), NO₃^- (0.145 mmol/L [0.039-0.251]), SO₄^2- (0.111 mmol/L [0.026-0.196]), and NH₄⁺ (0.135 mmol/L [0.041-0.230]). Under different diabetes definitions, PM_2.5 mass and selected constituents with the exception of SO₄^2- were all associated with a higher risk of prevalent diabetes. In MD-based analysis, similar positive associations were observed for four constituents, with corresponding odds ratios of 1.180 (1.097-1.270) for PM_2.5, 1.154 (1.079-1.235) for BC, 1.170 (1.079-1.270) for OM, 1.200 (1.098-1.312) for NO₃^-, and 1.123 (1.037-1.215) for NH₄⁺. Stratified analyses showed a significantly higher risk of diabetes in males (1.225 [1.064-1.411]) than females (1.024 [0.923-1.136]) when exposed to PM_2.5. Participants under 65 years were generally more vulnerable to diabetes hazards related to PM_2.5 constituents exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposures to PM_2.5 and its constituents (i.e., BC, OM, NO₃^-, and NH₄⁺) were positively associated with increased risks of prevalent diabetes and elevated glucose levels in middle-aged and older adults.

Acute effects of ambient temperature on lung function of a panel of school children living in Dhaka, Bangladesh

INTRODUCTION

Short-term exposure to ambient temperature plays a significant role in human health. However, studies examining ambient temperature and lung function are scarce in locations with a tropical environment. To address this research gap, the current study investigated the effects of short-term ambient temperature on lung function in children and seasonal variation in this association in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

METHODS

The study was conducted in three schools located in three cities inside and around Dhaka. Repeated lung function measurements were obtained from a panel of 315 school children (including 86 asthmatic children) aged 9-16 years in 2013. Linear mixed-effects models adjusted for potential confounders were used to examine the effect of ambient temperature on lung function.

RESULTS

Short-term exposure to low ambient temperature was associated with a significant decrement in children's lung function. For each 1 °C decrease in daily mean temperature at cumulative lag of the current and previous day, lung function parameter values were -3.02% (95% CI, -1.69 to -4.35) for peak expiratory flow (PEF), and -1.48% (95% CI, -0.75 to -2.22) for forced expiratory volume within 1 s (FEV1). A significant seasonal variation was also observed in these associations, as the estimated adverse effects of decrease in daily mean temperature on lung function measures were primarily evident in winter.

DISCUSSION

This study suggests that short-term ambient exposure to decrease in temperature adversely affect lung function. A significant seasonal modification in the association between temperature and lung function was also observed for these children living in an environment with a tropical climatic condition as the adverse effect of decrease in ambient temperature was primarily observed in winter than in summer.

Spatiotemporal relationship between temperature and non-accidental mortality: Assessing effect modification by socioeconomic status

BACKGROUND

Most published studies have assessed the overall health impact of temperature by using one-station or multiple-station averaged meteorological and air quality data. Concern has arisen about whether the temperature health impact is homogeneous across the whole territory geographically, since green space and socioeconomic factors may modify the impact.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims at investigating how small-area mortality is modified by local temperature and other meteorological, air quality, green space, and socioeconomic factors of small geographic units in a subtropical urban setting.

METHODS

Data on meteorological, air pollutants, and non-accidental mortality count in Hong Kong during 2006-2016 were obtained. Combined with green space and socioeconomic data, spatiotemporal analysis using Generalized Additive Mixed Models was conducted to examine the temperature-mortality relationship, adjusted for seasonality, long-term trend, other meteorological factors, pollutants, socioeconomic characteristics and green space.

RESULTS

Socioeconomic status was found to modify the temporal temperature-mortality relationship. A J-shape association was identified for most areas in Hong Kong, where a sharp increase of mortality was observed when daily minimum temperature dropped lower than the turning point. However, for people living in the most affluent areas, after the initial increase there was a decrease of mortality for colder days. Besides, when comparing the two spatiotemporal models (i.e. using nearby or central temperature monitoring station), while leaving the other predictors unchanged, this study showed that there was little difference in the overall model performances.

CONCLUSION

This study indicated that the daily fluctuation of mortality was associated with daily temperature, while the spatial variation of mortality within this city could be explained by the geographical distribution of green space and socioeconomic factors. Since people living in affluent areas were found to be more tolerant of cold temperatures, it would be more efficient to tailor cold temperature health education and warning information for socioeconomically deprived communities.

Effect of apparent temperature on hospitalization from a spectrum of cardiovascular diseases in rural residents in Fujian, China

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading threat to global public health. Although associations between temperature and CVD hospitalization have been suggested for developed countries, limited evidence is available for developing countries or rural residents. Moreover, the effect of apparent temperature (AT) on the spectrum of cause-specific CVDs remains unknown. Based on 2,024,147 CVD hospitalizations for rural residents from eight regions in Fujian Province, China, during 2010-2016, a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was fitted to estimate the AT effect on daily CVD hospitalization for each region, and then pooled in a meta-regression that included regional indicators related to rural residents. Stratified analyses were performed according to the cause of hospitalization, sex and age groups. Finally, we calculated the fraction of CVD hospitalizations attributable to AT, as a reflection of the burden associated with AT. The heat effect appeared at lag 0-1 days, with 19% (95% CI, 11-26%) increased risk of CVD hospitalization, which was worse for ischemic heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias and ischemic stroke. The decreased AT was associated with increase of hemorrhagic stroke at lag 0-28 days. People aged 65 and above suffered more from the heat effect on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Regions with a lower gross value of agricultural production, rural residents' per capita net income, number of air conditioners and water heaters were more susceptible. A large number of hospitalizations were attributable to heat for most subcategories. High AT level increased CVD hospitalization, and the subcategories had different susceptibilities. The effects were modified by individual and regional characteristics. These findings have important implications for the development of targeted interventions and for hospital service planning.

Non-optimum ambient temperature may decrease pulmonary function: A longitudinal study with intensively repeated measurements among asthmatic adult patients in 25 Chinese cities

BACKGROUND

Non-optimum ambient temperature has not been widely perceived as an important environmental risk factor for asthma, and the association between ambient temperature and pulmonary function is rarely explored. Our study aimed to investigate the associations between non-optimum ambient temperature and pulmonary function among asthmatic adult patients.

METHODS

We performed a longitudinal study among 4,992 eligible adult asthmatic patients in 25 cities of China from 2017 to 2020. The patients were required to complete pulmonary function test every day in the morning and evening. Linear mixed-effects models and distributed lag non-linear models were used to evaluate the associations between ambient temperature and pulmonary function.

RESULTS

We evaluated 298,396 records of pulmonary function tests. We found inversely J-shaped exposure-response relationship curves for ambient temperature and pulmonary function. The effects of extreme low temperature occurred at lag 0 h and vanished at lag 72 h (almost 3 days). Compared with referent temperature (29.5 °C), extreme low temperature (-9.4 °C) was associated with decreases of 60.4 mL in FEV₁, 299.7 mL/s in PEF, and 101.5 mL in FVC. Extreme high temperature (34.2 °C) was associated with decreases of 26.0 mL in FEV₁, 35.8 mL/s in PEF, and 23.4 mL in FVC. Patients of male, overweight, and elder ages were vulnerable populations, and cold effects were more prominent in the south and in areas without central heating.

CONCLUSIONS

Both extreme low and high ambient temperatures were associated with decreased pulmonary function in adult asthmatic patients. The effect could last for almost 3 days and low temperature was more harmful.

Association of temperature variability with the risk of initial outpatient visits for allergic rhinitis: a time-series study in Changchun

Epidemiological studies have revealed associations between several temperature parameters and allergic rhinitis (AR). However, few studies have reported the association of AR with daily temperature variability, which indicates both short-term intra- and interday temperature changes. This study aimed to analyze associations between temperature variability and initial outpatient visits for AR. The analysis was conducted with an over-dispersed Poisson model using daily time-series data on temperature and the number of initial AR outpatients from 2013 to 2015 in Changchun, China. The composite index of temperature variability was derived by calculating the standard deviation of daily minimum temperature and maximum temperature over exposure days. Stratified analysis by season was also conducted. There were 23,344 AR outpatients during the study period. In the total period, per 1 °C increase in temperature variability at 0-2 days (TV_0-2), 0-3 days (TV_0-3), and 0-4 days (TV_0-4) was associated with a 4.03% (95% CI: 0.91-7.25%), 4.40% (95% CI: 0.95-7.97%), and 4.12% (95% CI: 0.38-8.01%) increase in the number of AR outpatients, respectively. When stratified by season, the strongest effect was shown in spring. Our results suggested that temperature variability was associated with increased initial outpatient visits for AR, which may provide helpful implications for formulating public health policies to reduce adverse health impacts of unstable temperature.

Association between Cold Spells and Mortality Risk and Burden: A Nationwide Study in China

BACKGROUND

Few multicity studies have evaluated the association between cold spells and mortality risk and burden.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to estimate the association between cold spells and cause-specific mortality and to evaluate the mortality burden in China.

METHODS

We conducted a time-series analysis with a nationally representative Disease Surveillance Points System database during the cool seasons spanning from 2013 to 2015 in 272 Chinese cities. We used 12 cold-spell definitions and overdispersed generalized additive models with distributed lag models to estimate the city-specific cumulative association of cold spells over lags of 0-28 d. We controlled for the nonlinear and lagged effects of cold temperature over 0-28 d to evaluate the added effect estimates of cold spell. We also quantified the nationwide mortality burden and pooled the estimated association at national and different climatic levels with meta-regression models.

RESULTS

For the cold-spell definition of daily mean temperatures of ≤5th percentile of city-specific daily mean temperature and duration of ≥4 consecutive d, the relative risks (i.e., risk ratios) associated with cold spells were 1.39 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15, 1.69] for non-accidental mortality, 1.66 (95% CI: 1.20, 2.31) for coronary heart disease mortality, 1.49 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.97) for stroke mortality, and 1.26 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.87) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality. Cold spells showed a maximal lagged association of 28 d with the risks peaked at 10-15 d. A statistically significant attributable fraction (AF) of non-accidental mortality [2.10% (95% CI: 0.94%, 3.04%)] was estimated. The risks were higher in the temperate continental and the temperate monsoon zones than in the subtropical monsoon zone. The elderly population was especially vulnerable to cold spells.

DISCUSSION

Our study provides evidence for the significant relative risks of non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality associated with cold spells. The findings on vulnerable populations and differential risks in different climatic zones may help establish region-specific forecasting systems against the hazardous impact of cold spells. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9284.

Article title: Trends and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Dengue Cases in Northeast Malaysia

Objectives

Dengue remains hyperendemic in Malaysia despite extensive vector control activities. With dynamic changes in land use, urbanisation and population movement, periodic updates on dengue transmission patterns are crucial to ensure the implementation of effective control strategies. We sought to assess shifts in the trends and spatial patterns of dengue in Kelantan, a north-eastern state of Malaysia (5°15’N 102°0’E).

Methods

This study incorporated data from the national dengue monitoring system (eDengue system). Confirmed dengue cases registered in Kelantan with disease onset between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018 were included in the study. Yearly changes in dengue incidence were mapped by using ArcGIS. Hotspot analysis was performed using Getis-Ord Gi to track changes in the trends of dengue spatial clustering.

Results

A total of 10 645 dengue cases were recorded in Kelantan between 2016 and 2018, with an average of 10 dengue cases reported daily (standard deviation, 11.02). Areas with persistently high dengue incidence were seen mainly in the coastal region for the 3-year period. However, the hotspots shifted over time with a gradual dispersion of hotspots to their adjacent districts.

Conclusions

A notable shift in the spatial patterns of dengue was observed. We were able to glimpse the shift of dengue from an urban to peri-urban disease with the possible effect of a state-wide population movement that affects dengue transmission.

Hourly concentrations of fine and coarse particulate matter and dynamic pulmonary function measurements among 4992 adult asthmatic patients in 25 Chinese cities

The short-term associations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and coarse particulate matter (PM_2.5-10) with pulmonary function were inconsistent and rarely evaluated by dynamic measurements. Our study aimed to investigate the associations of PM_2.5 and PM_2.5-10 with real-time pulmonary function. We conducted a longitudinal study based on dynamic pulmonary function measurements among adult asthmatic patients in 25 cities of 19 provincial regions of China from 2017 to 2020. Linear mixed-effects models combined with polynomial distributed lag models were used for statistical analysis. A total of 298,396 records among 4,992 asthmatic patients were evaluated. We found generally inverse associations of PM_2.5 and PM_2.5-10 with 16 pulmonary function indicators that were independent of gaseous pollutants. The associations occurred at lag 1 d, became the strongest at lag 4 d, and vanished a week later. PM_2.5-10 had stronger associations than PM_2.5, especially in southern China. Nationally, an interquartile increase in PM_2.5-10 (28.0 μg/m³) was significantly associated with decreases in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV_1, 41.6 mL), the ratio of FEV₁ in forced vital capacity (1.1%), peak expiratory flow (136.9 mL/s), and forced expiratory flow at 25-75% of forced vital capacity (54.3 mL/s). We observed stronger associations in patients of male, BMI ≥ 25 kg/m², age ≥ 45 years old, and during warm seasons. In conclusion, this study provided robust evidence for impaired pulmonary function by short-term exposure to PM_2.5 and PM_2.5-10 in asthmatic patients using the largest dataset of dynamic monitoring. The associations can last for one week and PM_2.5-10 may be more hazardous.

The mortality burden of nervous system diseases attributed to ambient temperature: A multi-city study in China

BACKGROUNDS

Studies on the association between ambient temperature and human mortality have been widely reported, focusing on common diseases such as cardiopulmonary diseases. However, multi-city studies on the association between both high and low temperatures and mortality of nervous system diseases were scarce, especially on the evidence of vulnerable populations.

METHODS

Weekly meteorological data, air pollution data and mortality data of nervous system were collected in 5 cities in China. A quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to quantify the association between extreme temperatures and mortality of nervous system diseases. Multivariate meta-analysis was applied to estimate the pooled effects at the overall levels. The attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated to assess the mortality burden attributable to both high and low temperatures. Stratified analyses were also performed by gender and age-groups through the above steps.

RESULTS

A total of 12,132 deaths of nervous system diseases were collected in our study. The overall minimum mortality temperature was 23.9 °C (61.9th), the cumulative relative risks of extreme heat and cold for nervous system diseases were 1.33(95%CI: 1.10, 1.61) and 1.47(95%CI: 1.27, 1.71). The mortality burden attributed to non-optimal temperatures accounted for 29.54% (95%eCI: 13.45%, 40.52%), of which the mortality burden caused by low temperature and high temperature accounted for 25.89% (95%eCI: 13.03%, 34.36%) and 3.65% (95%eCI: 0.42%, 6.17%), respectively. The mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature was higher in both males and the elderly (>74 years old), with the AF of 31.85% (95%eCI: 20.68%, 39.88%) and 31.14% (95%eCI: -6.83%, 49.51%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The non-optimal temperature can increase the mortality of nervous system diseases and the males and the elderly over 74 years have the highest attributable burden. The findings add the evidence of vulnerable populations of nervous system diseases against ambient temperatures.

Association between ambient temperature and cognitive function in a community-dwelling elderly population: a repeated measurement study

OBJECTIVES

Evidence on the associations between short-term and long-term air temperature exposure and cognitive function in older adults, particularly those in Asia, is limited. We explored the relationships of short-term and long-term air temperature exposure with cognitive function in Taiwanese older adults through a repeated measures survey.

DESIGN AND SETTING

We used data the ongoing Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging, a multiple-wave nationwide survey.

PARTICIPANTS

We identified 1956, 1700, 1248 and 876 older adults in 1996, 1999, 2003 and 2007, respectively.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Participants' cognitive function assessment was based on the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire. We calculated the temperature moving average (TMA) for temperature exposure windows between 1993 and 2007 using data from air quality monitoring stations, depending on the administrative zone of each participant's residence. Generalised linear mixed models were used to examine the effects of short-term and long-term temperature changes on cognitive function.

RESULTS

Short-term and long-term temperature exposure was significantly and positively associated with moderate-to-severe cognitive impairment, with the greatest increase in ORs found for 3-year TMAs (OR 1.247; 95% CI 1.107 to 1.404). The higher the quintiles of temperature exposure were, the higher were the ORs. The strongest association found was in long-term TMA exposure (OR 3.674; 95% CI 2.103 to 6.417) after covariates were controlled for.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of mild cognitive impairment increased with ambient temperature in community-dwelling older adults in Taiwan.

Low ambient temperature and temperature drop between neighbouring days and acute aortic dissection: a case-crossover study

AIMS

The incidence of acute aortic dissection (AAD) has been shown to have seasonal variation, but whether this variation can be explained by non-optimum ambient temperature and temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN) is not clear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a time-stratified case-crossover study in the Registry of Aortic Dissection in China covering 14 tertiary hospitals in 11 cities from 2009 to 2019. A total of 8182 cases of AAD were included. Weather data at residential address were matched from nearby monitoring stations. Conditional logistic regression model and distributed lag nonlinear model were used to estimate the associations of daily temperature and TCN with AAD, adjusting for possible confounders. We observed an increase of AAD risk with lower temperature cumulated over lag 0-1 day and this association became statistically significant when daily mean temperature was below 24°C. Relative to the referent temperature (28°C), the odds ratios (ORs) of AAD onset at extremely low (-10°C) and low (1°C) temperature cumulated over lag 0-1 day were 2.84 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.69, 4.75] and 2.36 (95% CI: 1.61, 3.47), respectively. A negative TCN was associated with increased risk of AAD. The OR of AAD cumulated over lag 0-6 days was 2.66 (95% CI: 1.76, 4.02) comparing the extremely negative TCN (-7°C) to no temperature change. In contrast, a positive TCN was associated with reduced AAD risk.

CONCLUSION

This study provides novel and robust evidence that low ambient temperature and temperature drop between neighbouring days were associated with increased risk of AAD onset.

KEY QUESTION

Incidence of acute aortic dissection (AAD) was reported to have seasonal trends, but it remains unclear whether non-optimum ambient temperature and temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN) is associated with AAD onset.

KEY FINDING

Daily mean temperature lower than 24°C was significantly associated with increased risk of AAD at lag 0-1 day. A negative TCN (temperature drop) was associated with increased risk of AAD, whereas a positive TCN was associated with decreased risk.

TAKE HOME MESSAGE

This multi-centre, case-crossover study provides novel and robust evidence that low ambient temperature and temperature drop between neighbouring days were associated with increased AAD risk.

Prediction of Dengue Incidence in the Northeast Malaysia Based on Weather Data Using the Generalized Additive Model

Introduction

Dengue, a vector-borne viral illness, shows worldwide widening spatial distribution beyond its point of origination, namely, the tropical belt. The persistent hyperendemicity in Malaysia has resulted in the formation of the dengue early warning system. However, weather variables are yet to be fully utilized for prevention and control activities, particularly in east-coast peninsular Malaysia where limited studies have been conducted. We aim to provide a time-based estimate of possible dengue incidence increase following weather-related changes, thereby highlighting potential dengue outbreaks.

Method

All serologically confirmed dengue patients in Kelantan, a northeastern state in Malaysia, registered in the eDengue system with an onset of disease from January 2016 to December 2018, were included in the study with the exclusion of duplicate entry. Using a generalized additive model, climate data collected from the Kota Bharu weather station (latitude 6°10′N, longitude 102°18′E) was analysed with dengue data.

Result

A cyclical pattern of dengue cases was observed with annual peaks coinciding with the intermonsoon period. Our analysis reveals that maximum temperature, mean temperature, rainfall, and wind speed have a significant nonlinear effect on dengue cases in Kelantan. Our model can explain approximately 8.2% of dengue incidence variabilities.

Conclusion

Weather variables affect nearly 10% of the dengue incidences in Northeast Malaysia, thereby making it a relevant variable to be included in a dengue early warning system. Interventions such as vector control activities targeting the intermonsoon period are recommended.

Time-series analysis of daily ambient temperature and emergency department visits in five US cities with a comparison of exposure metrics derived from 1-km meteorology products

BACKGROUND

Ambient temperature observations from single monitoring stations (usually located at the major international airport serving a city) are routinely used to estimate heat exposures in epidemiologic studies. This method of exposure assessment does not account for potential spatial variability in ambient temperature. In environmental health research, there is increasing interest in utilizing spatially-resolved exposure estimates to minimize exposure measurement error.

METHODS

We conducted time-series analyses to investigate short-term associations between daily temperature metrics and emergency department (ED) visits for well-established heat-related morbidities in five US cities that represent different climatic regions: Atlanta, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco. In addition to airport monitoring stations, we derived several exposure estimates for each city using a national meteorology data product (Daymet) available at 1 km spatial resolution.

RESULTS

Across cities, we found positive associations between same-day temperature (maximum or minimum) and ED visits for heat-sensitive outcomes, including acute renal injury and fluid and electrolyte imbalance. We also found that exposure assessment methods accounting for spatial variability in temperature and at-risk population size often resulted in stronger relative risk estimates compared to the use of observations at airports. This pattern was most apparent when examining daily minimum temperature and in cities where the major airport is located further away from the urban center.

CONCLUSION

Epidemiologic studies based on single monitoring stations may underestimate the effect of temperature on morbidity when the station is less representative of the exposure of the at-risk population.

Evaluating the association between extreme heat and mortality in urban Southwestern Ontario using different temperature data sources

Urban areas have complex thermal distribution. We examined the association between extreme temperature and mortality in urban Ontario, using two temperature data sources: high-resolution and weather station data. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models to examine census division-specific temperature–mortality associations between May and September 2005–2012. We used random-effect multivariate meta-analysis to pool results, adjusted for air pollution and temporal trends, and presented risks at the 99th percentile compared to minimum mortality temperature. As additional analyses, we varied knots, examined associations using different temperature metrics (humidex and minimum temperature), and explored relationships using different referent values (most frequent temperature, 75th percentile of temperature distribution). Weather stations yielded lower temperatures across study months. U-shaped associations between temperature and mortality were observed using both high-resolution and weather station data. Temperature–mortality relationships were not statistically significant; however, weather stations yielded estimates with wider confidence intervals. Similar findings were noted in additional analyses. In urban environmental health studies, high-resolution temperature data is ideal where station observations do not fully capture population exposure or where the magnitude of exposure at a local level is important. If focused upon temperature–mortality associations using time series, either source produces similar temperature–mortality relationships.

Excess Mortality in England during the 2019 Summer Heatwaves

There is increasing evidence that rising temperatures and heatwaves in the United Kingdom are associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. However, the Public Health England (PHE) Heatwave mortality monitoring reports, which use provisional death registrations to estimate heat-related mortality in England during heatwaves, have not yet been evaluated. This study aims to retrospectively quantify the impact of heatwaves on mortality during the 2019 summer period using daily death occurrences. Second, using the same method, it quantifies the heat-related mortality for the 2018 and 2017 heatwave periods. Last, it compares the results to the estimated excess deaths for the same period in the PHE Heatwave mortality monitoring reports. The number of cumulative excess deaths during the summer 2019 heatwaves were minimal (161) and were substantially lower than during the summer 2018 heatwaves (1700 deaths) and summer 2017 heatwaves (1489 deaths). All findings were at variance with the PHE Heatwave mortality monitoring reports which estimated cumulative excess deaths to be 892, 863 and 778 during the heatwave periods of 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Issues are identified in the use of provisional death registrations for mortality monitoring and the reduced reliability of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) daily death occurrences database before 2019. These findings may identify more reliable ways to monitor heat mortality during heatwaves in the future.

Temperature and humidity associated with increases in tuberculosis notifications: a time-series study in Hong Kong

Previous studies have revealed associations of meteorological factors with tuberculosis (TB) cases. However, few studies have examined their lag effects on TB cases. This study was aimed to analyse nonlinear lag effects of meteorological factors on the number of TB notifications in Hong Kong. Using a 22-year consecutive surveillance data in Hong Kong, we examined the association of monthly average temperature and relative humidity with temporal dynamics of the monthly number of TB notifications using a distributed lag nonlinear models combined with a Poisson regression. The relative risks (RRs) of TB notifications were >1.15 as monthly average temperatures were between 16.3 and 17.3 °C at lagged 13–15 months, reaching the peak risk of 1.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.35) when it was 16.8 °C at lagged 14 months. The RRs of TB notifications were >1.05 as relative humidities of 60.0–63.6% at lagged 9–11 months expanded to 68.0–71.0% at lagged 12–17 months, reaching the highest risk of 1.06 (95% CI 1.01–1.11) when it was 69.0% at lagged 13 months. The nonlinear and delayed effects of average temperature and relative humidity on TB epidemic were identified, which may provide a practical reference for improving the TB warning system.

The burden of childhood hand-foot-mouth disease morbidity attributable to relative humidity: a multicity study in the Sichuan Basin, China

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a growing threat to children's health, causing a serious public health burden in China. The relationships between associated meteorological factors and HFMD have been widely studied. However, the HFMD burden due to relative humidity from the perspective of attributable risk has been neglected. This study investigated the humidity-HFMD relationship in three comprehensive perspectives, humidity-HFMD relationship curves, effect modification and attributable risks in the Sichuan Basin between 2011 and 2017. We used multistage analyses composed of distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), a multivariate meta-regression model and the calculations of attributable risk to quantify the humidity-HFMD association. We observed a J-shaped pattern for the pooled cumulative humidity-HFMD relationship, which presented significant heterogeneity relating to the geographical region and number of primary school students. Overall, 27.77% (95% CI 25.24–30.02%) of HFMD infections were attributed to humidity. High relative humidity resulted in the greatest burden of HFMD infections. The proportion of high humidity-related HFMD in the southern basin was higher than that in the northern basin. The findings provide evidence from multiple perspectives for public health policy formulation and health resource allocation to develop priorities and targeted policies to ease the HFMD burden associated with humidity.

Attributable risks associated with hospital outpatient visits for mental disorders due to air pollution: A multi-city study in China

AIM

To determine the associations between outdoor air pollution and hospital outpatient visits for mental disorders in China.

METHODS

We obtained data of 111,842 hospital outpatient visits for mental disorders from the largest hospitals of 13 cities, China, between January 01, 2013 and December 31, 2015. We collected air pollutant data including particulate matter ≤2.5 µm in diameter (PM_2.5), particulate matter ≤10 µm in diameter (PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), ozone (O₃) and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) from China National Environmental Monitoring Centre during the same period. We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression models to determine the associations.

RESULTS

A 10 µg/m³ increase in PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂ and SO₂ was associated with a significant increase in hospital outpatient visits for mental disorders on the current day. When stratified by age, sex and season, the effects of PM_2.5 and NO₂ were robust among different subgroups at lag05 days. PM₁₀ showed positive associations in males, in cold season, and in depression patients. SO₂ showed positive associations in males, in cold season, and in anxiety patients. O₃ showed positive associations in females, in warm season, and in depression patients. Nearly one sixth hospital outpatient visits for mental disorders can be attributable to NO₂.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term increase in PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂ and O₃ concentrations was significantly associated with exacerbation of mental disorders in China as indicated by increases in hospital outpatient visits. NO₂ had more serious health threat than other pollutants in terms of mental disorders. Our findings strongly suggest a need for more strict emission control regulations to protect mental health from air pollution.

The association between ambient temperature and clinical visits for inflammation-related diseases in rural areas in China

BACKGROUND

The association between temperature and mortality has been widely reported. However, it remains largely unclear whether inflammation-related diseases, caused by excessive or inappropriate inflammatory reaction, may be affected by ambient temperature, particularly in low-income areas.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the association between ambient temperature and clinical visits for inflammation-related diseases in rural villages in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, during 2012─2015.

METHODS

Daily data on inflammation-related diseases and weather conditions were collected from 258 villages in Haiyuan (161 villages) and Yanchi (97 villages) counties during 2012─2015. A Quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the association between temperature and clinical visits for inflammation-related diseases. Stratified analyses were performed by types of diseases including arthritis, gastroenteritis, and gynecological inflammations.

RESULTS

During the study period, there were 724,788 and 288,965 clinical visits for inflammation-related diseases in Haiyuan and Yanchi, respectively. Both exposure to low (RR: 2.045, 95% CI: 1.690, 2.474) and high temperatures (RR: 1.244, 95% CI: 1.107, 1.399) were associated with increased risk of total inflammation-related visits in Haiyuan county. Low temperatures were associated with increased risks of all types of inflammation-related diseases in Yanchi county (RR: 4.344, 95% CI: 2.887, 6.535), while high temperatures only affected gastroenteritis (RR: 1.274, 95% CI: 1.040, 1.561). Moderate temperatures explained approximately 26% and 33% of clinical visits due to inflammation-related diseases in Haiyuan and Yanchi, respectively, with the burden attributable to cold exposure higher than hot exposure. The reference temperature values ranged from 17 to 19 in Haiyuan, and 12 to 14 in Yanchi for all types of clinical visits.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings add additional evidence for the adverse effect of suboptimal ambient temperature and provide useful information for public health programs targeting people living in rural villages.

Short-term effect of PM1 on hospital admission for ischemic stroke: A multi-city case-crossover study in China

This study aims to examine the association between short-term exposures to PM₁, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤1 μm, ≤2.5 μm and ≤10 μm, respectively) and hospital admission for ischemic stroke in China. Daily counts of hospital admission for ischemic stroke were collected in 5 hospitals in China during November 2013 to October 2015. Daily concentrations of PM₁, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were collected in 5 cities where the hospitals were located. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to examine the hospital-specific PM-ischemic stroke association after controlling for potential confounders. Then the effect estimates were pooled using a random-effect meta-analysis. A total of 68,122 hospital admissions for ischemic stroke were identified from 5 hospitals during the study period. The pooled results showed that exposures to PM₁, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were significantly associated with increased hospital admission for ischemic stroke on the current day and previous 1 day. The RRs (relative risk associated with per 10 μg/m³ increase in each pollutant) and 95%CIs (confidence intervals) for the cumulative effects of PM₁, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ on ischemic stroke during lag 0-1 days were 1.014 (1.005, 1.0023), 1.007 (1.000, 1.014) and 1.005 (1.001, 1.009), respectively. In total, 3.5%, 3.6% and 4.1% of hospital admissions for ischemic stroke could be attributable to PM₁, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, respectively. Exposures to ambient PM₁, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ pollution showed acute adverse effects on hospital admission for ischemic stroke. The health effects of PM₁ should be considered by policy-makers.

A multi-resolution air temperature model for France from MODIS and Landsat thermal data

Understanding and managing the health effects of ambient temperature (Ta) in a warming, urbanizing world requires spatially- and temporally-resolved Ta at high resolutions. This is challenging in a large area like France which includes highly variable topography, rural areas with few weather stations, and heterogeneous urban areas where Ta can vary at fine spatial scales. We have modeled daily Ta from 2000 to 2016 at a base resolution of 1 km2 across continental France and at a 200 × 200 m2 resolution over large urban areas. For each day we predict three Ta measures: minimum (Tmin), mean (Tmean), and maximum (Tmax). We start by using linear mixed models to calibrate daily Ta observations from weather stations with remotely sensed MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and other spatial predictors (e.g. NDVI, elevation) on a 1 km2 grid. We fill gaps where LST is missing (e.g. due to cloud cover) with additional mixed models that capture the relationship between predicted Ta at each location and observed Ta at nearby weather stations. The resulting 1 km Ta models perform very well, with ten-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.92, 0.97, and 0.95, mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.4 °C, 0.9 °C, and 1.4 °C, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.9 °C, 1.3 °C, and 1.8 °C (Tmin, Tmean, and Tmax, respectively) for the initial calibration stage. To increase the spatial resolution over large urban areas, we train random forest and extreme gradient boosting models to predict the residuals (R) of the 1 km Ta predictions on a 200 × 200 m2 grid. In this stage we replace MODIS LST and NDVI with composited top-of-atmosphere brightness temperature and NDVI from the Landsat 5, 7, and 8 satellites. We use a generalized additive model to ensemble the random forest and extreme gradient boosting predictions with weights that vary spatially and by the magnitude of the predicted residual. The 200 m models also perform well, with ten-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.79, 0.79, and 0.85, MAE of 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3, and RMSE of 0.6, 0.4, and 0.5 (Rmin, Rmean, and Rmax, respectively). Our model will reduce bias in epidemiological studies in France by improving Ta exposure assessment in both urban and rural areas, and our methodology demonstrates that MODIS and Landsat thermal data can be used to generate gap-free timeseries of daily minimum, maximum, and mean Ta at a 200 × 200 m2 spatial resolution.

Multi-city study on air pollution and hospital outpatient visits for asthma in China

BACKGROUND

The proportion of asthma patients with mild to moderate exacerbations is far greater than the number who experience episodes that are severe enough to require emergency room visits or hospital admission. However the routinely collected data from hospitals is absent in the past.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate associations between short-term exposures to air pollutants and hospital outpatient visits for asthma in China.

METHODS

We obtained data for 143,057 asthma outpatient visits from the largest hospitals in 17 Chinese cities, between Jan 01 2013 and Dec 31 2015. We used daily concentrations of air pollutants measured by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design, and fitted conditional logistic regression models to determine the associations.

RESULTS

Particulate matter ≤10μm in diameter (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were associated with increased risks of hospital outpatient visits for asthma on the same day, while the effects were delayed for particulate matter ≤2.5μm in diameter (PM2.5) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). For the cumulative effect model at lag05 days, 10 μg/m3 increase in air pollutants concentrations were correlated with hospital outpatient visits for asthma with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals 1.004 (1.000-1.008) for PM2.5, 1.005 (1.002-1.008) for PM10, 1.030 (1.021-1.040) for NO2, and 1.015 (1.008-1.021) for SO2. Almost one in nine (10.9%; 7.7, 13.9%) hospital outpatient visits for asthma were attributable to NO2.

CONCLUSION

Short-term exposures to PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and SO2 were associated with hospital outpatient visits for asthma in China.

Short-term effects of ambient PM1 and PM2.5 air pollution on hospital admission for respiratory diseases: Case-crossover evidence from Shenzhen, China

BACKGROUND

Ambient PM₁ (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤1 μm) is an important contribution of PM_2.5 mass. However, little is known worldwide regarding the PM₁-associated health effects due to a wide lack of ground-based PM₁ measurements from air monitoring stations.

METHODS

We collected daily records of hospital admission for respiratory diseases and station-based measurements of air pollution and weather conditions in Shenzhen, China, 2015-2016. Time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression models were adopted to estimate hospitalization risks associated with short-term exposures to PM₁ and PM_2.5.

RESULTS

PM₁ and PM_2.5 showed significant adverse effects on respiratory disease hospitalizations, while no evident associations with PM_1-2.5 were identified. Admission risks for total respiratory diseases were 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 1.14) and 1.06 (1.02 to 1.10), corresponding to per 10 μg/m³ rise in exposure to PM₁ and PM_2.5 at lag 0-2 days, respectively. Both PM₁ and PM_2.5 were strongly associated with increased admission for pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, but exhibited no effects on asthma and upper respiratory tract infection. Largely comparable risk estimates were observed between male and female patients. Groups aged 0-14 years and 45-74 years were significantly affected by PM₁- and PM_2.5-associated risks. PM-hospitalization associations exhibited a clear seasonal pattern, with significantly larger risks in cold season than those in warm season among some subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggested that PM₁ rather than PM_1-2.5 contributed to PM_2.5-induced risks of hospitalization for respiratory diseases and effects of PM₁ and PM_2.5 mainly occurred in cold season.

The effect of ambient temperature on cardiovascular mortality in 27 Brazilian cities

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on the relationship between temperature and cardiovascular mortality in middle and low-income countries, particularly in Latin America. In this study, we investigated the total effect of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in 27 Brazilian cities, and the effect modification by geographic, socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure characteristics within cities.

METHODS

In the city-specific analysis, we used time-series analyses to estimate the relationship between mean temperature and daily cardiovascular mortality using quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with distributed lag non-linear models. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effects of temperature on cardiovascular mortality for Brazil and its five regions (Central-West, North, Northeast, South, and Southeast). We used a meta-regression to examine the effect modification of city-specific geographic, socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure-related variables.

RESULTS

The risks associated with temperature varied across the locations. Higher cardiovascular mortality was associated with low and high temperatures in most of the cities, Brazil and the Central-West, North, South, and Southeast regions. The overall relative risk (RR) for Brazil was 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17-1.35) for the 1st percentile of temperature and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.01-1.13) for the 99th percentile of temperature versus the 79th percentile (27.7 °C), where RR was lowest. The temperature range was the variable that best explained the variation in effects among the cities, with greater effects in locations having a broader range.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate effects of low and high temperatures on the risk of cardiovascular mortality in most of Brazil's capital cities, besides a pooled effect for Brazil and the Central-West, North, South, and Southeast regions. These findings can help inform public policies addressing the health impact of temperature extremes, especially in the context of climate change.

Association between Heat Exposure and Hospitalization for Diabetes in Brazil during 2000-2015: A Nationwide Case-Crossover Study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to excessive heat, which will continue to increase with climate change, is associated with increased morbidity due to a range of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Whether this is true for diabetes is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to quantify the relationship between heat exposure and risk of hospitalization due to diabetes in Brazil.

METHODS

Data on hospitalizations and weather conditions were collected from 1,814 cities during the hot seasons from 2000 to 2015. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to quantify the association between hospitalization for diabetes and heat exposure. Region-specific odds ratios (ORs) were used to calculate the attributable fractions (AFs).

RESULTS

A total of 553,351 hospitalizations associated with diabetes were recorded during 2000-2015. Every 5°C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with 6% [OR=1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.07] increase in hospitalization due to diabetes with lag 0-3 d. The association was greatest (OR=1.18; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.23) in those ≥80y of age, but did not vary by sex, and was generally consistent by region and type of diabetes. Assuming a causal association, we estimated that 7.3% (95% CI: 3.5, 10.9) of all hospitalizations due to diabetes in the hot season could be attributed to heat exposure during the study period.

DISCUSSION

Short-term heat exposure may increase the burden of diabetes-related hospitalization, especially among the very elderly. As global temperatures continue to rise, this burden is likely to increase. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5688.

Comparison of temperature-mortality associations estimated with different exposure metrics

Background:

Studies of the short-term association between ambient temperature and mortality often use temperature observations from a single monitoring station, frequently located at the nearest airport, to represent the exposure of individuals living across large areas. Population-weighted temperature estimates constructed from gridded meteorological data may offer an opportunity to improve exposure assessment in locations where station observations do not fully capture the average exposure of the population of interest.

Methods:

We compared the association between daily mean temperature and mortality in each of 113 United States counties using (1) temperature observations from a single weather station and (2) population-weighted temperature estimates constructed from a gridded meteorological dataset. We used distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the 21-day cumulative association between temperature and mortality in each county, 1987–2006, adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of week, and holidays.

Results:

In the majority (73.4%) of counties, the relative risk of death on extremely hot days (99th percentile of weather station temperature) versus the minimum mortality temperature was larger when generated from the population-weighted estimates. In contrast, relative risks on extremely cold days (first percentile of weather station temperature) were often larger when generated from the weather station observations. In most counties, the difference in associations estimated from the two temperature metrics was small.

Conclusions:

In a large, multi-site analysis, temperature-mortality associations were largely similar when estimated from weather station observations versus population-weighted temperature estimates. However, spatially refined exposure data may be more appropriate for analyses seeking to elucidate local health effects.

Suitability of gridded climate datasets for use in environmental epidemiology

Epidemiologic analyses of the health effects of meteorological exposures typically rely on observations from the nearest weather station to assess exposure for geographically diverse populations. Gridded climate datasets (GCD) provide spatially resolved weather data that may offer improved exposure estimates, but have not been systematically validated for use in epidemiologic evaluations. As a validation, we linearly regressed daily weather estimates from two GCDs, PRISM and Daymet, to observations from a sample of weather stations across the conterminous United States and compared spatially resolved, population-weighted county average temperatures and heat indices from PRISM to single-pixel PRISM values at the weather stations to identify differences. We found that both Daymet and PRISM accurately estimate ambient temperature and mean heat index at sampled weather stations, but PRISM outperforms Daymet for assessments of humidity and maximum daily heat index. Moreover, spatially-resolved exposure estimates differ from point-based assessments, but with substantial inter-county heterogeneity. We conclude that GCDs offer a potentially useful approach to exposure assessment of meteorological variables that may, in some locations, reduce exposure measurement error, as well as permit assessment of populations distributed far from weather stations.