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de Sá Leitão CS, dos Santos CHDA, Valente J, Maia B, Pereira RS, Batista LM, Amorim FG, Fé-Gonçalves LM, Lacerda M, Almeida-Val F, Val AL. Amazon tropical fishes of commercial interest show human-cell contamination but no SARS-CoV-2 in a real-life scenario. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0306985. [PMID: 39008462 PMCID: PMC11249228 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306985] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2024] [Accepted: 06/26/2024] [Indexed: 07/17/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Amazonas was one of the most impacted Brazilian states by the COVID-19 pandemic. Mortality rates were high, and the health systems collapsed. It is important to identify possible intermediate reservoirs to avoid animal-to-human contamination. Several tropical fish are of commercial interest and are sold in large open-air markets in the region, representing a large economic and dietary importance. OBJECTIVES This study aimed to verify if fish species of commercial importance, aerosols, and fish wastewater in local open-air markets, at a major capital city in the western Brazilian Amazon, are contaminated by SARS-CoV-2. METHODS 488 fish, 50 aerosol, and 45 wastewater samples were analyzed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. The samples were subjected to extraction using the BIOGENE Viral DNA/RNA Extraction kit, and the molecular diagnosis was tested for SARS-CoV-2 using the Bio-Manguinhos SARS-CoV-2 (EDx) Molecular Kit. RESULTS It was not possible to detect the virus (Ct≤40, for Gene E) in these samples, however, in 181 samples of fish it was possible to detect the human RP gene (Ct≤35, for the RP Gene), indicating human contact. There was a high number of COVID-19 diagnoses in all city districts in which the samples were collected, showing that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating. CONCLUSION This study indicates that fish of local commercial importance do not carry SARS-CoV-2 viral particles, despite circulation of SARS-CoV-2, and are not an important source of animal-to-human contamination. Despite these results, the human RP gene was found detectable in fish, air, and fish wastewater, showing that such places may carry human pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carolina Sousa de Sá Leitão
- Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Manaus, Amazonas (AM), Brasil
| | - Carlos Henrique dos Anjos dos Santos
- Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Manaus, Amazonas (AM), Brasil
- Unidade Acadêmica de Serra Talhada, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Serra Talhada, Pernambuco (PE), Brasil
| | | | - Bernardo Maia
- Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brasil
| | - Rogério Santos Pereira
- Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Manaus, Amazonas (AM), Brasil
| | - Larissa Matos Batista
- Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Manaus, Amazonas (AM), Brasil
| | - Felipe Guedes Amorim
- Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Manaus, Amazonas (AM), Brasil
| | | | - Marcus Lacerda
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brasil
- Instituto Leonidas e Maria Deane, FIOCRUZ-AM, Manaus, AM, Brasil
| | - Fernando Almeida-Val
- Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Manaus, AM, Brasil
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, AM, Brasil
| | - Adalberto Luis Val
- Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Laboratório de Ecofisiologia e Evolução Molecular, Manaus, Amazonas (AM), Brasil
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Büyükakın F, Özyılmaz A, Işık E, Bayraktar Y, Olgun MF, Toprak M. Pandemics, Income Inequality, and Refugees: The Case of COVID-19. SOCIAL WORK IN PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 39:78-92. [PMID: 38372287 DOI: 10.1080/19371918.2024.2318372] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/20/2024]
Abstract
Refugees are more vulnerable to COVID-19 due to factors such as low standard of living, accommodation in crowded households, difficulty in receiving health care due to high treatment costs in some countries, and inability to access public health and social services. The increasing income inequalities, anxiety about providing minimum living conditions, and fear of being unemployed compel refugees to continue their jobs, and this affects the number of cases and case-related deaths. The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of refugees and income inequality on COVID-19 cases and deaths in 95 countries for the year 2021 using Poisson regression, Negative Binomial Regression, and Machine Learning methods. According to the estimation results, refugees and income inequalities increase both COVID-19 cases and deaths. On the other hand, the impact of income inequality on COVID-19 cases and deaths is stronger than on refugees.
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Affiliation(s)
- Figen Büyükakın
- Department of Economics, University of Kocaeli, Kocaeli, Turkey
| | - Ayfer Özyılmaz
- Department of Public Fınance, University of Kırıkkale, Kırıkkale, Turkey
| | - Esme Işık
- Department of Optician, Malatya Turgut Özal Unıversıty, Malatya, Turkey
| | | | - Mehmet Firat Olgun
- The Department of Technology Transfer, University of Kastamonu, Kastamonu, Turkey
| | - Metin Toprak
- Department of Economics, Halıc Unıversıty, Istanbul, Turkey
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Miah MM, Faruk MO, Pingki FH, Al Neyma M. The effects of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 omicron variant in Bangladesh. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH 2024; 34:514-525. [PMID: 36469810 DOI: 10.1080/09603123.2022.2154326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Accepted: 11/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 omicron variant is exceptionally complicated and uncertain due to its rapid transmission and volume of infections. This study examines the impact of climatic factors on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 omicron variant in Bangladesh. The secondary data of daily confirmed cases from 1 January 2022, to 31 March 2022, of eight distinct geographic divisions have been used for the current study. The multivariate generalized linear negative binomial regression model was applied to determine the effects of climatic factors on omicron transmission. The model revealed that the maximum temperature (Odds: 0.67, p < 0.05), sky clearness (Odds: 0.05, p < 0.05), wind speed (Odds: 0.76, p < 0.05), relative humidity (Odds: 1.02, p < 0.05), and air pressure (Odds: 0.27, p < 0.05) significantly impacted COVID-19 omicron transmission in Bangladesh. The study's findings can assist the concerned authorities and decision-makers take necessary measures to control the spread of omicron cases in Bangladesh.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Mamun Miah
- Department of Statistics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh
| | - Mohammad Omar Faruk
- Department of Statistics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh
| | - Farjana Haque Pingki
- Department of Fisheries and Marine Science, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh
| | - Mahmuda Al Neyma
- Department of Statistics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh
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Vahedian M, Sharafkhani R, Pournia Y. Short-term effect of meteorological factors on COVID-19 mortality in Qom, Iran. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH 2023; 33:1515-1524. [PMID: 35917482 DOI: 10.1080/09603123.2022.2104821] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2021] [Accepted: 07/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The present study was conducted to assess the short-term effects of the meteorological factors on the COVID-19 mortality in Qom, Iran. The GAM with a quasi-Poisson link function was used to evaluate the impact of temperature, DTR, relative humidity, and absolute humidity on the COVID-19 mortality, controlling potential confounders such as time trend, air pollutants, and day of the week. The results showed that the risk of COVID-19 mortality was reduced, in single-day lag/multiple-day average lag, per one-unit increase in absolute humidity (percentage change in lag 0=-33.64% (95% CI (-42.44, -23.49)), and relative humidity (percentage change in lag 0=-1.87% (95% CI (-2.52, -1.22)). Also, per one-unit increase in DTR value, COVID death risk increased in single-day and multiple-day average lag. This study demonstrated a significant relationship between the four meteorological variables and the COVID-19 mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mostafa Vahedian
- Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
- Research Center for Environmental Pollutants, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
| | - Rahim Sharafkhani
- Department of Public Health, Khoy University of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran
| | - Yadollah Pournia
- Department of English Language, Faculty of Medicine, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
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Wang Y, Gong G, Shi X, Huang Y, Deng X. Investigation of the effects of temperature and relative humidity on the propagation of COVID-19 in different climatic zones. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:83495-83512. [PMID: 37341939 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-28237-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/22/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the effects of temperature and relative humidity on the propagation of COVID-19 for indoor heating, ventilation, and air conditioning design and policy development in different climate zones. We proposed a cumulative lag model with two specific parameters of specific average temperature and specific relative humidity to evaluate the impact of temperature and relative humidity on COVID-19 transmission by calculating the relative risk of cumulative effect and the relative risk of lag effect. We considered the temperature and relative humidity corresponding to the relative risk of cumulative effect or the relative risk of lag effect equal to 1 as the thresholds of outbreak. In this paper, we took the overall relative risk of cumulative effect equal to 1 as the thresholds. Data on daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 since January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021, for three sites in each of four climate zones similar to cold, mild, hot summer and cold winter, and hot summer and warm winter were selected for this study. Temperature and relative humidity had a lagged effect on COVID-19 transmission, with peaking the relative risk of lag effect at a lag of 3-7 days for most regions. All regions had different parameters areas with the relative risk of cumulative effect greater than 1. The overall relative risk of cumulative effect was greater than 1 in all regions when specific relative humidity was higher than 0.4, and when specific average temperature was higher than 0.42. In areas similar to hot summer and cold winter, temperature and the overall relative risk of cumulative effect were highly monotonically positively correlated. In areas similar to hot summer and warm winter, there was a monotonically positive correlation between relative humidity and the overall relative risk of cumulative effect. This study provides targeted recommendations for indoor air and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system control strategies and outbreak prevention strategies to reduce the risk of COVID-19 transmission. In addition, countries should combine vaccination and non-pharmaceutical control measures, and strict containment policies are beneficial to control another pandemic of COVID-19 and similar viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxin Wang
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China
| | - Guangcai Gong
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China.
| | - Xing Shi
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China
| | - Yuting Huang
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaorui Deng
- College of Civil Engineering of Hunan University (HNU), Changsha, 410082, People's Republic of China
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Bănică A, Muntele I. Local and regional factors of spatial differentiation of the excess mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania. LETTERS IN SPATIAL AND RESOURCE SCIENCES 2023; 16:23. [PMID: 37220627 PMCID: PMC10189221 DOI: 10.1007/s12076-023-00340-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 03/30/2023] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 revealed some major weaknesses and threats that are related to the level of territorial development. In Romania, the manifestation and the impact of the pandemic were not homogenous, which was influenced, to a large extent, by a diversity of sociodemographic, economic, and environmental/geographic factors. The paper is an exploratory analysis focused on selecting and integrating multiple indicators that could explain the spatial differentiation of COVID-19-related excess mortality (EXCMORT) in 2020 and 2021. These indicators include, among others, health infrastructure, population density and mobility, health services, education, the ageing population and distance to the closest urban center. We analyzed the data from local (LAU2) and county level (NUTS3) by applying multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression models. The results show that mobility and lower social distancing were far more critical factors for higher mortality than the intrinsic vulnerability of the population, at least in the first two years of COVID-19. However, the highly differentiated patterns and specificities of different areas of Romania resulting from the modelling of EXCMORT factors drive to the conclusion that the decision-making approaches should be place-specific in order to have more efficiency in case of pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandru Bănică
- Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iași, Iași, Romania
- Geographic Research Center, Romanian Academy, Iași Branch, Iași, Romania
| | - Ionel Muntele
- Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iași, Iași, Romania
- Geographic Research Center, Romanian Academy, Iași Branch, Iași, Romania
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Mantilla Caicedo GC, Rusticucci M, Suli S, Dankiewicz V, Ayala S, Caiman Peñarete A, Díaz M, Fontán S, Chesini F, Jiménez-Buitrago D, Barreto Pedraza LR, Barrera F. Spatio-temporal multidisciplinary analysis of socio-environmental conditions to explore the COVID-19 early evolution in urban sites in South America. Heliyon 2023; 9:e16056. [PMID: 37200576 PMCID: PMC10162854 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2021] [Revised: 04/24/2023] [Accepted: 05/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/20/2023] Open
Abstract
This study aimed to analyse how socio-environmental conditions affected the early evolution of COVID-19 in 14 urban sites in South America based on a spatio-temporal multidisciplinary approach. The daily incidence rate of new COVID-19 cases with symptoms as the dependent variable and meteorological-climatic data (mean, maximum, and minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) as the independent variables were analysed. The study period was from March to November of 2020. We inquired associations of these variables with COVID-19 data using Spearman's non-parametric correlation test, and a principal component analysis considering socio economic and demographic variables, new cases, and rates of COVID-19 new cases. Finally, an analysis using non-metric multidimensional scale ordering by the Bray-Curtis similarity matrix of meteorological data, socio economic and demographic variables, and COVID-19 was performed. Our findings revealed that the average, maximum, and minimum temperatures and relative humidity were significantly associated with rates of COVID-19 new cases in most of the sites, while precipitation was significantly associated only in four sites. Additionally, demographic variables such as the number of inhabitants, the percentage of the population aged 60 years and above, the masculinity index, and the GINI index showed a significant correlation with COVID-19 cases. Due to the rapid evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, these findings provide strong evidence that biomedical, social, and physical sciences should join forces in truly multidisciplinary research that is critically needed in the current state of our region.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Matilde Rusticucci
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, CONICET, Argentina
| | - Solange Suli
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, CONICET, Argentina
| | - Verónica Dankiewicz
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, CONICET, Argentina
| | - Salvador Ayala
- Universidad de Chile, Programa de Doctorado en Salud Pública, Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile, Chile
| | - Alexandra Caiman Peñarete
- Subred Integrada de Servicios Hospitalarios Centro Oriente ESE, Red Hospitalaria Bogotá Distrito Capital, Colombia
| | - Martín Díaz
- Universidad Nacional de La Matanza, Departamento de Ciencias de la Salud, Argentina
| | - Silvia Fontán
- Universidad Nacional de La Matanza, Departamento de Ciencias de la Salud, Argentina
| | | | - Diana Jiménez-Buitrago
- Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social, Mesa de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático de la CONASA, Colombia
| | - Luis R. Barreto Pedraza
- Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales - IDEAM, Subdirección de Meteorología, Mesa de Variabilidad y Cambio Climático de la CONASA, Miembro del grupo QuASAR UPN, Colombia
| | - Facundo Barrera
- Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas (CADIC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Ushuaia, Argentina
- Centro i∼mar, Universidad de Los Lagos, Chile and Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Casilla 557, Puerto Montt Chile
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN. Peculiar weather patterns effects on air pollution and COVID-19 spread in Tokyo metropolis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 228:115907. [PMID: 37080275 PMCID: PMC10111861 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 04/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
As a pandemic hotspot in Japan, between March 1, 2020-October 1, 2022, Tokyo metropolis experienced seven COVID-19 waves. Motivated by the high rate of COVID-19 incidence and mortality during the seventh wave, and environmental/health challenges we conducted a time-series analysis to investigate the long-term interaction of air quality and climate variability with viral pandemic in Tokyo. Through daily time series geospatial and observational air pollution/climate data, and COVID-19 incidence and death cases, this study compared the environmental conditions during COVID-19 multiwaves. In spite of five State of Emergency (SOEs) restrictions associated with COVID-19 pandemic, during (2020-2022) period air quality recorded low improvements relative to (2015-2019) average annual values, namely: Aerosol Optical Depth increased by 9.13% in 2020 year, and declined by 6.64% in 2021, and 12.03% in 2022; particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 decreased during 2020, 2021, and 2022 years by 10.22%, 62.26%, 0.39%, and respectively by 4.42%, 3.95%, 5.76%. For (2021-2022) period the average ratio of PM2.5/PM10 was (0.319 ± 0.1640), showing a higher contribution to aerosol loading of traffic-related coarse particles in comparison with fine particles. The highest rates of the daily recorded COVID-19 incidence and death cases in Tokyo during the seventh COVID-19 wave (1 July 2022-1 October 2022) may be attributed to accumulation near the ground of high levels of air pollutants and viral pathogens due to: 1) peculiar persistent atmospheric anticyclonic circulation with strong positive anomalies of geopotential height at 500 hPa; 2) lower levels of Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) heights; 3) high daily maximum air temperature and land surface temperature due to the prolonged heat waves (HWs) in summer 2022; 4) no imposed restrictions. Such findings can guide public decision-makers to design proper strategies to curb pandemics under persistent stable anticyclonic weather conditions and summer HWs in large metropolitan areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania.
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
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Collazos JAA, Dias R, Medeiros MC. Modeling the evolution of deaths from infectious diseases with functional data models: The case of COVID-19 in Brazil. Stat Med 2023; 42:993-1012. [PMID: 36631172 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2021] [Revised: 11/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/29/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, we apply statistical methods for functional data to explore the heterogeneity in the registered number of deaths of COVID-19, over time. The cumulative daily number of deaths in regions across Brazil is treated as continuous curves (functional data). The first stage of the analysis applies clustering methods for functional data to identify and describe potential heterogeneity in the curves and their functional derivatives. The estimated clusters are labeled with different "levels of alert" to identify cities in a possible critical situation. In the second stage of the analysis, we apply a functional quantile regression model for the death curves to explore the associations with functional rates of vaccination and stringency and also with several scalar geographical, socioeconomic and demographic covariates. The proposed model gave a better curve fit at different levels of the cumulative number of deaths when compared to a functional regression model based on ordinary least squares. Our results add to the understanding of the development of COVID-19 death counts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julian A A Collazos
- Department of Mathematics, New Granada Military University, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Ronaldo Dias
- Department of Statistics, State University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | - Marcelo C Medeiros
- Department of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Aragão DP, Junior AGDS, Mondini A, Distante C, Gonçalves LMG. COVID-19 Patterns in Araraquara, Brazil: A Multimodal Analysis. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4740. [PMID: 36981646 PMCID: PMC10048455 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20064740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Revised: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The epidemiology of COVID-19 presented major shifts during the pandemic period. Factors such as the most common symptoms and severity of infection, the circulation of different variants, the preparedness of health services, and control efforts based on pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions played important roles in the disease incidence. The constant evolution and changes require the continuous mapping and assessing of epidemiological features based on time-series forecasting. Nonetheless, it is necessary to identify the events, patterns, and actions that were potential factors that affected daily COVID-19 cases. In this work, we analyzed several databases, including information on social mobility, epidemiological reports, and mass population testing, to identify patterns of reported cases and events that may indicate changes in COVID-19 behavior in the city of Araraquara, Brazil. In our analysis, we used a mathematical approach with the fast Fourier transform (FFT) to map possible events and machine learning model approaches such as Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and neural networks (NNs) for data interpretation and temporal prospecting. Our results showed a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of about 5 (more precisely, a 4.55 error over 71 cases for 20 March 2021 and a 5.57 error over 106 cases for 3 June 2021). These results demonstrated that FFT is a useful tool for supporting the development of the best prevention and control measures for COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dunfrey Pires Aragão
- Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Av. Salgado Filho, 3000, Lagoa Nova, Natal 59078-970, Brazil
- Institute of Applied Sciences and Intelligent Systems-CNR, Via Monteroni sn, 73100 Lecce, Italy
| | | | - Adriano Mondini
- Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas, Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho”, Rodovia Araraquara-Jaú, Km 1, Campus Ville, Araraquara 14800-903, Brazil
| | - Cosimo Distante
- Institute of Applied Sciences and Intelligent Systems-CNR, Via Monteroni sn, 73100 Lecce, Italy
| | - Luiz Marcos Garcia Gonçalves
- Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Av. Salgado Filho, 3000, Lagoa Nova, Natal 59078-970, Brazil
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Rekers R, Luna F. Pandemic justice for and from Latin America. ETHIC@ : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR MORAL PHILOSOPHY = REVISTA INTERNACIONAL DE FILOSOFIA DA MORAL 2023; 22:1-25. [PMID: 38379809 PMCID: PMC10878728 DOI: 10.5007/1677-2954.2023.e97435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/22/2024]
Abstract
Introdução ao Dossiê Justiça Pandêmica Global
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Yabar CA. [Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination programs in South America]. ETHIC@ : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR MORAL PHILOSOPHY = REVISTA INTERNACIONAL DE FILOSOFIA DA MORAL 2023; 22:98-125. [PMID: 38379808 PMCID: PMC10878731 DOI: 10.5007/1677-2954.2023.e92641] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/22/2024]
Abstract
National vaccination programs against SARS-CoV2 in South America played an important role in the timely response to the COVID-19 pandemic, however, was an ethical approach capable of guaranteeing greater benefit to the population through vaccination being applied? To answer this question, my aim was to analyze the national vaccination programs of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru to identify the extent to which they aligned with the utilitarianism and prioritarianism oriented ethical approaches when assigning the vaccine against COVID-19. I start from the hypothesis that all the selected countries propose vaccination policies with possible prioritarian and/or utilitarian ethical approaches, however, those that align with prioritarianism manage to better adhere to the moral duties of social justice. To demonstrate my hypothesis, I have integrated the socio-economic information, analyzed the coverage strategies of each country and tried to frame them with the proposed ethical approaches, to finally present arguments for and against these approaches. I conclude that, unlike utilitarianism, the application of prioritarianism to the vaccine allocation schemes of the four countries analyzed allowed prioritizing the vaccine in those who are worse off in terms of social justice, and that, unequivocally, includes the severely ill.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Augusto Yabar
- Becario FLACSO. Biólogo Molecular y Doctor en Ciencias Biológicas, profesor de la Facultad de Medicina Humana de la Universidad de San Martín de Porres y Presidente del Comité Institucional de Ética en Investigación del Instituto Nacional de Salud del Perú. Tiene un diplomado en Bioética y es egresado de la Maestría en Bioética por la Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO) en Argentina. Su trabajo se centra en el análisis del enfoque ótico de la priorización y la pobreza extrema en América Latina
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13
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Podury S, Kwon S, Javed U, Farooqi MS, Li Y, Liu M, Grunig G, Nolan A. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Particulate Matter Exposure: A Systematic Review. Life (Basel) 2023; 13:538. [PMID: 36836898 PMCID: PMC9962044 DOI: 10.3390/life13020538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Revised: 01/30/2023] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 02/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Particulate matter (PM) exposure is responsible for seven million deaths annually and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of respiratory infections such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Understanding modifiable risk factors of high mortality, resource burdensome C19 and exposure risks such as PM is key to mitigating their devastating effects. This systematic review focuses on the literature available, identifying the spatial and temporal variation in the role of quantified PM exposure in SARS disease outcome and planning our future experimental studies. METHODS The systematic review utilized keywords adhered to the PRISMA guidelines. We included original human research studies in English. RESULTS Initial search yielded N = 906, application of eligibility criteria yielded N = 46. Upon analysis of risk of bias N = 41 demonstrated high risk. Studies found a positive association between elevated PM2.5, PM10 and SARS-related outcomes. A geographic and temporal variation in both PM and C19's role was observed. CONCLUSION C19 is a high mortality and resource intensive disease which devastated the globe. PM exposure is also a global health crisis. Our systematic review focuses on the intersection of this impactful disease-exposure dyad and understanding the role of PM is important in the development of interventions to prevent future spread of viral infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sanjiti Podury
- Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA; (S.P.); (S.K.); (U.J.); (M.S.F.)
| | - Sophia Kwon
- Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA; (S.P.); (S.K.); (U.J.); (M.S.F.)
| | - Urooj Javed
- Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA; (S.P.); (S.K.); (U.J.); (M.S.F.)
| | - Muhammad S. Farooqi
- Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA; (S.P.); (S.K.); (U.J.); (M.S.F.)
| | - Yiwei Li
- Department of Population Health, Division of Biostatistics, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA; (Y.L.); (M.L.)
| | - Mengling Liu
- Department of Population Health, Division of Biostatistics, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA; (Y.L.); (M.L.)
- Department of Medicine, Division of Environmental Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA;
| | - Gabriele Grunig
- Department of Medicine, Division of Environmental Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA;
| | - Anna Nolan
- Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA; (S.P.); (S.K.); (U.J.); (M.S.F.)
- Department of Medicine, Division of Environmental Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine (NYUGSoM), New York, NY 10016, USA;
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14
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Moazeni M, Rahimi M, Ebrahimi A. What are the Effects of Climate Variables on COVID-19 Pandemic? A Systematic Review and Current Update. Adv Biomed Res 2023; 12:33. [PMID: 37057247 PMCID: PMC10086649 DOI: 10.4103/abr.abr_145_21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2021] [Revised: 01/05/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 04/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The climatological parameters can be different in various geographical locations. Moreover, they have possible impacts on COVID-19 incidence. Therefore, the purpose of this systematic review article was to describe the effects of climatic variables on COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. Systematic literature search was performed in Scopus, ISI Web of Science, and PubMed databases using ("Climate" OR "Climate Change" OR "Global Warming" OR "Global Climate Change" OR "Meteorological Parameters" OR "Temperature" OR "Precipitation" OR "Relative Humidity" OR "Wind Speed" OR "Sunshine" OR "Climate Extremes" OR "Weather Extremes") AND ("COVID" OR "Coronavirus disease 2019" OR "COVID-19" OR "SARS-CoV-2" OR "Novel Coronavirus") keywords. From 5229 articles, 424 were screened and 149 were selected for further analysis. The relationship between meteorological parameters is variable in different geographical locations. The results indicate that among the climatic indicators, the temperature is the most significant factor that influences on COVID-19 pandemic in most countries. Some studies were proved that warm and wet climates can decrease COVID-19 incidence; however, the other studies represented that warm location can be a high risk of COVID-19 incidence. It could be suggested that all climate variables such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, precipitation, solar radiation, ultraviolet index, and wind speed could cause spread of COVID-19. Thus, it is recommended that future studies will survey the role of all meteorological variables and interaction between them on COVID-19 spread in specific small areas such as cities of each country and comparison between them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malihe Moazeni
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
- Student Research Committee, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Mohammad Rahimi
- Department of Combat Desertification, Faculty of Desert Studies, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
| | - Afshin Ebrahimi
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
- Environment Research Center, Research Institute for Primordial Prevention of Non-Communicable Disease, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
- Address for correspondence: Dr. Afshin Ebrahimi, Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Hezar-Jerib Ave., Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, 81676 − 36954, Iran. E-mail:
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15
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Bonilla JA, Lopez-Feldman A, Pereda PC, Rivera NM, Ruiz-Tagle JC. Association between long-term air pollution exposure and COVID-19 mortality in Latin America. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0280355. [PMID: 36649353 PMCID: PMC9844883 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/27/2022] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Recent studies have shown a relationship between air pollution and increased vulnerability and mortality due to COVID-19. Most of these studies have looked at developed countries. This study examines the relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19-related deaths in four countries of Latin America that have been highly affected by the pandemic: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. Our results suggest that an increase in long-term exposure of 1 μg/m3 of fine particles is associated with a 2.7 percent increase in the COVID-19 mortality rate. This relationship is found primarily in municipalities of metropolitan areas, where urban air pollution sources dominate, and air quality guidelines are usually exceeded. By focusing the analysis on Latin America, we provide a first glimpse on the role of air pollution as a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality within a context characterized by weak environmental institutions, limited health care capacity and high levels of inequality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jorge A. Bonilla
- Department of Economics, Universidad de Los Andes, Bogota, Colombia
| | - Alejandro Lopez-Feldman
- Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden
- Department of Economics, Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas, Mexico City, Mexico
- * E-mail:
| | - Paula C. Pereda
- Department of Economics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - J. Cristobal Ruiz-Tagle
- Department of Geography & Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom
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16
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Naffeti B, Bourdin S, Ben Aribi W, Kebir A, Ben Miled S. Spatio-temporal evolution of the COVID-19 across African countries. Front Public Health 2022; 10:1039925. [PMID: 36518575 PMCID: PMC9742427 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1039925] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2022] [Accepted: 11/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The aim of this study is to make a comparative study on the reproduction number R 0 computed at the beginning of each wave for African countries and to understand the reasons for the disparities between them. The study covers the two first years of the COVID-19 pandemic and for 30 African countries. It links pandemic variables, reproduction number R 0, demographic variable, median age of the population, economic variables, GDP and CHE per capita, and climatic variables, mean temperature at the beginning of each waves. The results show that the diffusion of COVID-19 in Africa was heterogeneous even between geographical proximal countries. The difference of the basic reproduction number R 0 values is very large between countries and is significantly correlated with economic and climatic variables GDP and temperature and to a less extent with the mean age of the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bechir Naffeti
- Laboratory of BioInformatics, bioMathematics and bioStatistics, Institute Pasteur of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia,*Correspondence: Bechir Naffeti
| | | | - Walid Ben Aribi
- Laboratory of BioInformatics, bioMathematics and bioStatistics, Institute Pasteur of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Amira Kebir
- Laboratory of BioInformatics, bioMathematics and bioStatistics, Institute Pasteur of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia,Preparatory Institute for Engineering Studies of Tunis, University of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Slimane Ben Miled
- Laboratory of BioInformatics, bioMathematics and bioStatistics, Institute Pasteur of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia
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17
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Yáñez-Serrano AM, Aguilos M, Barbosa C, Bolaño-Ortiz TR, Carbone S, Díaz-López S, Diez S, Dominutti P, Engelhardt V, Alves EG, Pedraza J, Saturno J, Tzompa-Sosa ZA. The Latin America Early Career Earth System Scientist Network (LAECESS): addressing present and future challenges of the upcoming generations of scientists in the region. NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 2022; 5:79. [PMID: 36281291 PMCID: PMC9581757 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-022-00300-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2022] [Accepted: 09/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Early career (EC) Earth system scientists in the Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC) have been facing several issues, such as limited funding opportunities, substandard scientific facilities, lack of security of tenure, and unrepresented groups equality issues. On top of this, the worsening regional environmental and climatic crises call for the need for this new generation of scientists to help to tackle these crises by increasing public awareness and research. Realizing the need to converge and step up in making a collective action to be a part of the solution, the Latin America Early Career Earth System Scientist Network (LAECESS) was created in 2016. LAECESS's primary goals are to promote regional networking, foster integrated and interdisciplinary science, organize soft skills courses and workshops, and empower Latin American EC researchers. This article is an initial step towards letting the global science community grasp the current situation and hear the early career LAC science community's perspectives. The paper also presents a series of future steps needed for better scientific and social development in the LAC region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana María Yáñez-Serrano
- IDAEA-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
- CREAF, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), Catalonia, Spain
- Global Ecology Unit, CREAF‐CSIC‐UAB, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Maricar Aguilos
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC USA
| | | | - Tomás Rafael Bolaño-Ortiz
- Centre for Environmental Technologies, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María (CETAM-USM), Valparaíso, Chile
| | - Samara Carbone
- Federal University of Uberlandia, Agrarian Sciences Institute, Santa Mônica, Uberlândia - MG Brasil
| | - Stephanie Díaz-López
- Centro de Ciencias Atmosféricas y Biogeoquímica, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Sebastián Diez
- Wolfson Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratories, University of York, Innovation Way, Heslington, York UK
- Universidad Tecnológica Nacional, Còrdoba, Argentina
| | | | - Vanessa Engelhardt
- Centro de Ciencias Atmosféricas y Biogeoquímica, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas, Caracas, Venezuela
- Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Eliane Gomes Alves
- Department of Biogeochemical Processes, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
- Department of Climate and Environment, National Institute of Amazonian Research, Manaus, Brazil
| | | | - Jorge Saturno
- Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig, Germany
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18
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN. Cumulative effects of air pollution and climate drivers on COVID-19 multiwaves in Bucharest, Romania. PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION : TRANSACTIONS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS, PART B 2022; 166:368-383. [PMID: 36034108 PMCID: PMC9391082 DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2022.08.042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Revised: 08/12/2022] [Accepted: 08/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Over more than two years of global health crisis due to ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Romania experienced a five-wave pattern. This study aims to assess the potential impact of environmental drivers on COVID-19 transmission in Bucharest, capital of Romania during the analyzed epidemic period. Through descriptive statistics and cross-correlation tests applied to time series of daily observational and geospatial data of major outdoor inhalable particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) or ≤ 10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm (AOD) and radon (222Rn), we investigated the COVID-19 waves patterns under different meteorological conditions. This study examined the contribution of individual climate variables on the ground level air pollutants concentrations and COVID-19 disease severity. As compared to the long-term average AOD over Bucharest from 2015 to 2019, for the same year periods, this study revealed major AOD level reduction by ~28 % during the spring lockdown of the first COVID-19 wave (15 March 2020-15 May 2020), and ~16 % during the third COVID-19 wave (1 February 2021-1 June 2021). This study found positive correlations between exposure to air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO and 222Rn, and significant negative correlations, especially for spring-summer periods between ground O3 levels, air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance with COVID-19 incidence and deaths. For the analyzed time period 1 January 2020-1 April 2022, before and during each COVID-19 wave were recorded stagnant synoptic anticyclonic conditions favorable for SARS-CoV-2 virus spreading, with positive Omega surface charts composite average (Pa/s) at 850 mb during fall- winter seasons, clearly evidenced for the second, the fourth and the fifth waves. These findings are relevant for viral infections controls and health safety strategies design in highly polluted urban environments.
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Key Words
- 222Rn
- 222Rn, Radon
- AOD, Total Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm
- Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
- CAMS, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
- CO, Carbon monoxide
- COVID, 19 Coronavirus Disease 2019
- COVID-19 disease
- Climate variables
- DNC, Daily New COVID-19 positive cases
- DND, Daily New COVID-19 Deaths
- MERS, CoV Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus
- NO2, Nitrogen dioxide
- NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S.A.
- O3, Ozone
- Outdoor air pollutants
- PBL, Planetary Boundary Layer height
- PM, Particulate Matter: PM1(1 µm), PM2.5 (2.5 µm) and PM10(10.0 µm) diameter
- RH, Air relative humidity
- SARS, CoV Severe Outdoor Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
- SARS, CoV-2 Severe Outdoor Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
- SI, Surface solar global irradiance
- SO2, Sulfur dioxide
- Synoptic meteorological circulation
- T, Air temperature at 2 m height
- p, Air pressure
- w, Wind speed intensity
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
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Hammam EE, Al Ghamdi MA, Almazroui M, Hassan IA. The COVID-19 Pandemic: Quantification of Temporal Variations in Air Pollutants Before, During and Post the Lockdown in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT 2022; 6:917-926. [PMID: 36185412 PMCID: PMC9513300 DOI: 10.1007/s41748-022-00328-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2022] [Revised: 08/24/2022] [Accepted: 09/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The government of Saudi Arabia imposed a strict lockdown between March and July 2020 to stop the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which has led to a sharp decline in economic activities. The daily temporal variations of PM10, PM2.5, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) were used to investigate the changes in air quality in response to COVID-19 lockdown control measures from January to December 2020 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Meteorological parameters (wind speed, direction, temperature, relative humidity) were also analyzed to understand the changes during the pandemic. As a result, significant reductions in the concentrations of NO2 (- 44.5%), CO (- 41.5%), and PM2.5, PM10 (- 29.5%, each) were measured in the capital city of Jeddah during the quarantine compared to the pre-lockdown average. In contrast, the lockdown caused a significant increase in O3 by 41%. The changes in air quality during the COVID-19 outbreak by comparing the average pollutant concentration before lockdown (January 1-March 21, 2020) and the following 12 weeks during the partial lockdown (March 22-July 28, 2020), reveal a very significant decrease in pollutants, and consequently a significant improvement in air quality. Observed differences are attributable to changes in point source emissions associated with changes in localized activities, possibly related to decreased economic and industrial activity in response to the lockdown. The results of the present study show during the study period indicated a positive response to lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the results can be used to establish future control measures and strategies to improve air quality.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mansour A Al Ghamdi
- Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Agriculture of Arid Regions, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mansour Almazroui
- Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, 21589 Saudi Arabia
- Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - Ibrahim A Hassan
- Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, 21511 Moharem Bay, Alexandria, Egypt
- Scientific Committee of Environmental Problems (SCOPE), Academy of Scientific Research & Technology (ASRT), 101 Kasr Al Ini Street, Cairo, Egypt
- Centre of Excellence in Environmental Studies, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
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20
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Scabbia G, Sanfilippo A, Mazzoni A, Bachour D, Perez-Astudillo D, Bermudez V, Wey E, Marchand-Lasserre M, Saboret L. Does climate help modeling COVID-19 risk and to what extent? PLoS One 2022; 17:e0273078. [PMID: 36070304 PMCID: PMC9451080 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273078] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
A growing number of studies suggest that climate may impact the spread of COVID-19. This hypothesis is supported by data from similar viral contagions, such as SARS and the 1918 Flu Pandemic, and corroborated by US influenza data. However, the extent to which climate may affect COVID-19 transmission rates and help modeling COVID-19 risk is still not well understood. This study demonstrates that such an understanding is attainable through the development of regression models that verify how climate contributes to modeling COVID-19 transmission, and the use of feature importance techniques that assess the relative weight of meteorological variables compared to epidemiological, socioeconomic, environmental, and global health factors. The ensuing results show that meteorological factors play a key role in regression models of COVID-19 risk, with ultraviolet radiation (UV) as the main driver. These results are corroborated by statistical correlation analyses and a panel data fixed-effect model confirming that UV radiation coefficients are significantly negatively correlated with COVID-19 transmission rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Scabbia
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University – Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Antonio Sanfilippo
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University – Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
- * E-mail:
| | - Annamaria Mazzoni
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University – Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Dunia Bachour
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University – Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Daniel Perez-Astudillo
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University – Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
| | - Veronica Bermudez
- Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, Hamad Bin Khalifa University – Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar
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21
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Flores Sacoto KM, Sanchez Del Hierro GA, Moreno-Piedrahita Hernández FG, Jarrin Estupiñan JX. Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 and its Relationship to Sociodemographic Characteristics in Ecuador, 2020. Int J Public Health 2022; 67:1604768. [PMID: 36147885 PMCID: PMC9485263 DOI: 10.3389/ijph.2022.1604768] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective: To analyze sociodemographic factors’ influence on COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) in Ecuador on a subnational level.Methods: Publicly available register-based observational study. A retrospective cohort of COVID-19 infections between epidemiological weeks 8–53 in the Ecuadorian public healthcare system was determined from available records. Statistical analyses were conducted to evaluate CFR trends according to factors such as sex, age, location, and healthcare provider.Results: Overall CFR was 9.4%; by canton, median CFR was 5.2%, with some cantons with much higher rates, like Santa Elena (39.1%). Overall CFR decreased during the period, from 16.6% (week 8) to 2.63% (week 53). Being in a rural area was an independent protective factor. Patients over 65 had a hazard ratio of 11.38 (95% CI [11.05, 11.72]). Sex, ethnicity, and treatment from public facilities were also associated with death risk.Conclusion: CFR is a proxy indicator of COVID-19 impact in Ecuador, and this location-based analysis provides new information on the disease’s specific impact subnationally. Overall COVID-19 CFR during the entire period was high, suggesting the need to improve COVID-19 care in Ecuador.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karla Margarita Flores Sacoto
- CERPOP, UMR 1295, Inserm, Université de Toulouse - Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, Toulouse, France
- Facultad de Medicina Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
- *Correspondence: Karla Margarita Flores Sacoto,
| | - Galo Antonio Sanchez Del Hierro
- Facultad de Medicina Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
- Centro de Investigación para la Salud en Latino América (CISeAL), Quito, Ecuador
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22
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Al Huraimel K, Alhosani M, Gopalani H, Kunhabdulla S, Stietiya MH. Elucidating the role of environmental management of forests, air quality, solid waste and wastewater on the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2. HYGIENE AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH ADVANCES 2022; 3:100006. [PMID: 37519421 PMCID: PMC9095661 DOI: 10.1016/j.heha.2022.100006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2022] [Revised: 04/13/2022] [Accepted: 04/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The increasing frequency of zoonotic diseases is amongst several catastrophic repercussions of inadequate environmental management. Emergence, prevalence, and lethality of zoonotic diseases is intrinsically linked to environmental management which are currently at a destructive level globally. The effects of these links are complicated and interdependent, creating an urgent need of elucidating the role of environmental mismanagement to improve our resilience to future pandemics. This review focused on the pertinent role of forests, outdoor air, indoor air, solid waste and wastewater management in COVID-19 dissemination to analyze the opportunities prevailing to control infectious diseases considering relevant data from previous disease outbreaks. Global forest management is currently detrimental and hotspots of forest fragmentation have demonstrated to result in zoonotic disease emergences. Deforestation is reported to increase susceptibility to COVID-19 due to wildfire induced pollution and loss of forest ecosystem services. Detection of SARS-CoV-2 like viruses in multiple animal species also point to the impacts of biodiversity loss and forest fragmentation in relation to COVID-19. Available literature on air quality and COVID-19 have provided insights into the potential of air pollutants acting as plausible virus carrier and aggravating immune responses and expression of ACE2 receptors. SARS-CoV-2 is detected in outdoor air, indoor air, solid waste, wastewater and shown to prevail on solid surfaces and aerosols for prolonged hours. Furthermore, lack of protection measures and safe disposal options in waste management are evoking concerns especially in underdeveloped countries due to high infectivity of SARS-CoV-2. Inadequate legal framework and non-adherence to environmental regulations were observed to aggravate the postulated risks and vulnerability to future waves of pandemics. Our understanding underlines the urgent need to reinforce the fragile status of global environmental management systems through the development of strict legislative frameworks and enforcement by providing institutional, financial and technical supports.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khaled Al Huraimel
- Division of Consultancy, Research & Innovation (CRI), Sharjah Environment Company - Bee'ah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Mohamed Alhosani
- Division of Consultancy, Research & Innovation (CRI), Sharjah Environment Company - Bee'ah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Hetasha Gopalani
- Division of Consultancy, Research & Innovation (CRI), Sharjah Environment Company - Bee'ah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Shabana Kunhabdulla
- Division of Consultancy, Research & Innovation (CRI), Sharjah Environment Company - Bee'ah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Mohammed Hashem Stietiya
- Division of Consultancy, Research & Innovation (CRI), Sharjah Environment Company - Bee'ah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN. Impacts of exposure to air pollution, radon and climate drivers on the COVID-19 pandemic in Bucharest, Romania: A time series study. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 212:113437. [PMID: 35594963 PMCID: PMC9113773 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2022] [Revised: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
During the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic disease, like several countries, Romania experienced a multiwaves pattern over more than two years. The spreading pattern of SARS-CoV-2 pathogens in the Bucharest, capital of Romania is a multi-factorial process involving among other factors outdoor environmental variables and viral inactivation. Through descriptive statistics and cross-correlation analysis applied to daily time series of observational and geospatial data, this study aims to evaluate the synergy of COVID-19 incidence and lethality with air pollution and radon under different climate conditions, which may exacerbate the coronavirus' effect on human health. During the entire analyzed period 1 January 2020-21 December 2021, for each of the four COVID-19 waves were recorded different anomalous anticyclonic synoptic meteorological patterns in the mid-troposphere, and favorable stability conditions during fall-early winter seasons for COVID-19 disease fast-spreading, mostly during the second, and the fourth waves. As the temporal pattern of airborne SARS-CoV-2 and its mutagen variants is affected by seasonal variability of the main air pollutants and climate parameters, this paper found: 1) the daily outdoor exposures to air pollutants (particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10, nitrogen dioxide-NO2, sulfur dioxide-SO2, carbon monoxide-CO) and radon - 222Rn, are directly correlated with the daily COVID-19 incidence and mortality, and may contribute to the spread and the severity of the pandemic; 2) the daily ground ozone-O3 levels, air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance are anticorrelated with the daily new COVID-19 incidence and deaths, averageingful for spring-summer periods. Outdoor exposure to ambient air pollution associated with radon is a non-negligible driver of COVID-19 transmission in large metropolitan areas, and climate variables are risk factors in spreading the viral infection. The findings of this study provide useful information for public health authorities and decision-makers to develop future pandemic diseases strategies in high polluted metropolitan environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania.
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania
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Assessing the impact of long-term exposure to nine outdoor air pollutants on COVID-19 spatial spread and related mortality in 107 Italian provinces. Sci Rep 2022; 12:13317. [PMID: 35922645 PMCID: PMC9349267 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-17215-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
This paper investigates the air quality in 107 Italian provinces in the period 2014-2019 and the association between exposure to nine outdoor air pollutants and the COVID-19 spread and related mortality in the same areas. The methods used were negative binomial (NB) regression, ordinary least squares (OLS) model, and spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. The results showed that (i) common air pollutants-nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10)-were highly and positively correlated with large firms, energy and gas consumption, public transports, and livestock sector; (ii) long-term exposure to NO2, PM2.5, PM10, benzene, benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), and cadmium (Cd) was positively and significantly correlated with the spread of COVID-19; and (iii) long-term exposure to NO2, O3, PM2.5, PM10, and arsenic (As) was positively and significantly correlated with COVID-19 related mortality. Specifically, particulate matter and Cd showed the most adverse effect on COVID-19 prevalence; while particulate matter and As showed the largest dangerous impact on excess mortality rate. The results were confirmed even after controlling for eighteen covariates and spatial effects. This outcome seems of interest because benzene, BaP, and heavy metals (As and Cd) have not been considered at all in recent literature. It also suggests the need for a national strategy to drive down air pollutant concentrations to cope better with potential future pandemics.
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Lin S, Rui J, Xie F, Zhan M, Chen Q, Zhao B, Zhu Y, Li Z, Deng B, Yu S, Li A, Ke Y, Zeng W, Su Y, Chiang YC, Chen T. Assessing the Impacts of Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Pandemic Using Generalized Estimating Equations. Front Public Health 2022; 10:920312. [PMID: 35844849 PMCID: PMC9284004 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.920312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Meteorological factors have been proven to affect pathogens; both the transmission routes and other intermediate. Many studies have worked on assessing how those meteorological factors would influence the transmissibility of COVID-19. In this study, we used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by using three outcome variables, which are transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases. Methods In this study, the data on the daily number of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 in 30 provinces and cities nationwide were obtained from the provincial and municipal health committees, while the data from 682 conventional weather stations in the selected provinces and cities were obtained from the website of the China Meteorological Administration. We built a Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model to fit the data, then we calculated the transmissibility of COVID-19 using an indicator of the effective reproduction number (Reff ). To quantify the different impacts of meteorological factors on several outcome variables including transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases of COVID-19, we collected panel data and used generalized estimating equations. We also explored whether there is a lag effect and the different times of meteorological factors on the three outcome variables. Results Precipitation and wind speed had a negative effect on transmissibility, incidence rate, and the number of reported cases, while humidity had a positive effect on them. The higher the temperature, the lower the transmissibility. The temperature had a lag effect on the incidence rate, while the remaining five meteorological factors had immediate and lag effects on the incidence rate and the number of reported cases. Conclusion Meteorological factors had similar effects on incidence rate and number of reported cases, but different effects on transmissibility. Temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, sunshine hours, and wind speed had immediate and lag effects on transmissibility, but with different lag times. An increase in temperature may first cause a decrease in virus transmissibility and then lead to a decrease in incidence rate. Also, the mechanism of the role of meteorological factors in the process of transmissibility to incidence rate needs to be further explored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shengnan Lin
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jia Rui
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
- Cirad, UMR 17, Intertryp, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Fang Xie
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Meirong Zhan
- Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Qiuping Chen
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
- Cirad, UMR 17, Intertryp, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Bin Zhao
- Clinical Medical Laboratory, Xiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yuanzhao Zhu
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zhuoyang Li
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Bin Deng
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Shanshan Yu
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - An Li
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yanshu Ke
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Wenwen Zeng
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yanhua Su
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yi-Chen Chiang
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Tianmu Chen
- School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
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Culqui DR, Díaz J, Blanco A, Lopez JA, Navas MA, Sánchez-Martínez G, Luna MY, Hervella B, Belda F, Linares C. Short-term influence of environmental factors and social variables COVID-19 disease in Spain during first wave (Feb-May 2020). ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:50392-50406. [PMID: 35230631 PMCID: PMC8886199 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-19232-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2021] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to identify the combined role of environmental pollutants and atmospheric variables at short term on the rate of incidence (TIC) and on the hospital admission rate (TIHC) due to COVID-19 disease in Spain. This study used information from 41 of the 52 provinces of Spain (from Feb. 1, 2021 to May 31, 2021). Using TIC and TIHC as dependent variables, and average daily concentrations of PM10 and NO2 as independent variables. Meteorological variables included maximum daily temperature (Tmax) and average daily absolute humidity (HA). Generalized linear models (GLM) with Poisson link were carried out for each provinces The GLM model controlled for trend, seasonalities, and the autoregressive character of the series. Days with lags were established. The relative risk (RR) was calculated by increases of 10 μg/m3 in PM10 and NO2 and by 1 °C in the case of Tmax and 1 g/m3 in the case of HA. Later, a linear regression was carried out that included the social determinants of health. Statistically significant associations were found between PM10, NO2, and the rate of COVID-19 incidence. NO2 was the variable that showed greater association, both for TIC as well as for TIHC in the majority of provinces. Temperature and HA do not seem to have played an important role. The geographic distribution of RR in the studied provinces was very much heterogeneous. Some of the health determinants considered, including income per capita, presence of airports, average number of diesel cars per inhabitant, average number of nursing personnel, and homes under 30 m2 could explain the differential geographic behavior. As findings indicates, environmental factors only could modulate the incidence and severity of COVID-19. Moreover, the social determinants and public health measures could explain some patterns of geographically distribution founded.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dante R. Culqui
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5 (Aveniu), 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Julio Díaz
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5 (Aveniu), 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Alejandro Blanco
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5 (Aveniu), 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - José A. Lopez
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5 (Aveniu), 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Miguel A. Navas
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5 (Aveniu), 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | | | | | - Cristina Linares
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5 (Aveniu), 28029, Madrid, Spain
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Barbosa B, Silva M, Capinha C, Garcia RAC, Rocha J. Spatial correlates of COVID-19 first wave across continental Portugal. GEOSPATIAL HEALTH 2022; 17. [PMID: 35735942 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2022] [Accepted: 04/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The first case of COVID-19 in continental Portugal was documented on the 2nd of March 2020 and about seven months later more than 75 thousand infections had been reported. Although several factors correlate significantly with the spatial incidence of COVID-19 worldwide, the drivers of spatial incidence of this virus remain poorly known and need further exploration. In this study, we analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 incidence in the at the municipality level and test for significant relationships between these patterns and environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and human mobility factors to identify the mains drivers of COVID-19 incidence across time and space. We used a generalized liner mixed model, which accounts for zero inflated cases and spatial autocorrelation to identify significant relationships between the spatiotemporal incidence and the considered set of driving factors. Some of these relationships were particularly consistent across time, including the 'percentage of employment in services'; 'average time of commuting using individual transportation'; 'percentage of employment in the agricultural sector'; and 'average family size'. Comparing the preventive measures in Portugal (e.g., restrictions on mobility and crowd around) with the model results clearly show that COVID-19 incidence fluctuates as those measures are imposed or relieved. This shows that our model can be a useful tool to help decision-makers in defining prevention and/or mitigation policies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Melissa Silva
- Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisboa, Lisbon; Associated Laboratory TERRA, Lisbon.
| | - César Capinha
- Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisboa, Lisbon; Associated Laboratory TERRA, Lisbon.
| | - Ricardo A C Garcia
- Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisboa, Lisbon; Associated Laboratory TERRA, Lisbon.
| | - Jorge Rocha
- Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, University of Lisboa, Lisbon; Associated Laboratory TERRA, Lisbon.
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Akan AP. Transmission of COVID-19 pandemic (Turkey) associated with short-term exposure of air quality and climatological parameters. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:41695-41712. [PMID: 35098452 PMCID: PMC8801283 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-18403-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2021] [Accepted: 12/25/2021] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
The study aims to investigate associations between air pollution, climate parameters, and the diffusion of COVID-19-confirmed cases in Turkey using Spearman's correlation test as an empirical methodology by Statgraphics Centurion XVI (version 16.1) and to determine the risk factors accelerating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. The present study demonstrates the strong impacts of air pollutants and weather conditions on the transmission of COVID-19 morbidity. Particularly, O3 and PM10 from air quality parameters exhibited the strongest correlation with the number of daily cases in Kütahya (rs = -0.62; p < 0.05) and Sivas (rs = -0.62; p < 0.05) provinces, respectively. In meteorological parameters, rainfall showed the highest impact (rs = 0.76; p < 0.05) on the number of daily COVID-19 cases in Denizli distinct. Moreover, this study suggested that the diffusion of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in regions with high levels of air pollution and low wind speed is dominant. To prevent the negative effects of the future pandemic crisis on public health and economic systems, manifold implications to encourage strategies to reduce air pollution in the polluted region such as being prevalent the usage of renewable energy technologies in particular electricity generation and sustainable policies such as improving the health system should be implemented by decision-makers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aytac Perihan Akan
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Hacettepe University, 06800, Ankara, Turkey.
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Bañuelos Gimeno J, Blanco A, Díaz J, Linares C, López JA, Navas MA, Sánchez-Martínez G, Luna Y, Hervella B, Belda F, Culqui DR. Air pollution and meteorological variables' effects on COVID-19 first and second waves in Spain. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY : IJEST 2022; 20:2869-2882. [PMID: 35529588 PMCID: PMC9065237 DOI: 10.1007/s13762-022-04190-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2021] [Revised: 03/18/2022] [Accepted: 04/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED The aim of this research is to study the influence of atmospheric pollutants and meteorological variables on the incidence rate of COVID-19 and the rate of hospital admissions due to COVID-19 during the first and second waves in nine Spanish provinces. Numerous studies analyze the effect of environmental and pollution variables separately, but few that include them in the same analysis together, and even fewer that compare their effects between the first and second waves of the virus. This study was conducted in nine of 52 Spanish provinces, using generalized linear models with Poisson link between levels of PM10, NO2 and O3 (independent variables) and maximum temperature and absolute humidity and the rates of incidence and hospital admissions of COVID-19 (dependent variables), establishing a series of significant lags. Using the estimators obtained from the significant multivariate models, the relative risks associated with these variables were calculated for increases of 10 µg/m3 for pollutants, 1 °C for temperature and 1 g/m3 for humidity. The results suggest that NO2 has a greater association than the other air pollution variables and the meteorological variables. There was a greater association with O3 in the first wave and with NO2 in the second. Pollutants showed a homogeneous distribution across the country. We conclude that, compared to other air pollutants and meteorological variables, NO2 is a protagonist that may modulate the incidence and severity of COVID-19, though preventive public health measures such as masking and hand washing are still very important. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13762-022-04190-z.
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Affiliation(s)
- J. Bañuelos Gimeno
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment, National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health and Microbiology, Autonomous University of Madrid, Arzobispo Morcillo, 4, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - A. Blanco
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment, National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - J. Díaz
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment, National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - C. Linares
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment, National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - J. A. López
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment, National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - M. A. Navas
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment, National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Y. Luna
- State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), CALLE RIOS ROSAS, 44, Madrid, Spain
| | - B. Hervella
- State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), CALLE RIOS ROSAS, 44, Madrid, Spain
| | - F. Belda
- State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), CALLE RIOS ROSAS, 44, Madrid, Spain
| | - D. R. Culqui
- Reference Unit on Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment, National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos, 5, 28029 Madrid, Spain
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Culqui Lévano DR, Díaz J, Blanco A, Lopez JA, Navas MA, Sánchez-Martínez G, Luna MY, Hervella B, Belda F, Linares C. Mortality due to COVID-19 in Spain and its association with environmental factors and determinants of health. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES EUROPE 2022; 34:39. [PMID: 35498506 PMCID: PMC9040357 DOI: 10.1186/s12302-022-00617-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2022] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The objective of this study was to identify which air pollutants, atmospheric variables and health determinants could influence COVID-19 mortality in Spain. This study used information from 41 of the 52 provinces in Spain (from Feb. 1, to May 31, 2021). Generalized Linear Models (GLM) with Poisson link were carried out for the provinces, using the Rate of Mortality due to COVID-19 (CM) per 1,000,000 inhabitants as dependent variables, and average daily concentrations of PM10 and NO2 as independent variables. Meteorological variables included maximum daily temperature (Tmax) and average daily absolute humidity (HA). The GLM model controlled for trend, seasonalities and the autoregressive character of the series. Days with lags were established. The relative risk (RR) was calculated by increases of 10 g/m3 in PM10 and NO2 and by 1 ℃ in the case of Tmax and 1 g/m3 in the case of HA. Later, a linear regression was carried out that included the social determinants of health. RESULTS Statistically significant associations were found between PM10, NO2 and the CM. These associations had a positive value. In the case of temperature and humidity, the associations had a negative value. PM10 being the variable that showed greater association, with the CM followed of NO2 in the majority of provinces. Anyone of the health determinants considered, could explain the differential geographic behavior. CONCLUSIONS The role of PM10 is worth highlighting, as the chemical air pollutant for which there was a greater number of provinces in which it was associated with CM. The role of the meteorological variables-temperature and HA-was much less compared to that of the air pollutants. None of the social determinants we proposed could explain the heterogeneous geographical distribution identified in this study. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-022-00617-z.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dante R. Culqui Lévano
- Reference Unit On Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos 5, ZIP 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Julio Díaz
- Reference Unit On Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos 5, ZIP 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Alejandro Blanco
- Reference Unit On Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos 5, ZIP 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - José A. Lopez
- Reference Unit On Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos 5, ZIP 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | - Miguel A. Navas
- Reference Unit On Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos 5, ZIP 28029 Madrid, Spain
| | | | - M. Yolanda Luna
- State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Calle Rios Rosas, 44, Madrid, Spain
| | - Beatriz Hervella
- State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Calle Rios Rosas, 44, Madrid, Spain
| | - Fernando Belda
- State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Calle Rios Rosas, 44, Madrid, Spain
| | - Cristina Linares
- Reference Unit On Climate Change, Health and Urban Environment National School of Health, Carlos III Health Institute, Monforte de Lemos 5, ZIP 28029 Madrid, Spain
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Akinwumiju AS, Oluwafemi O, Mohammed YD, Mobolaji JW. Geospatial evaluation of COVID-19 mortality: Influence of socio-economic status and underlying health conditions in contiguous USA. APPLIED GEOGRAPHY (SEVENOAKS, ENGLAND) 2022; 141:102671. [PMID: 35261415 PMCID: PMC8890982 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2022.102671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Revised: 02/15/2022] [Accepted: 02/21/2022] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
Since its outbreak, COVID-19 disease has claimed over one hundred thousand lives in the United States, resulting to multiple and complex nation-wide challenges. In this study, we employ global and local regression models to assess the influence of socio-economic and health conditions on COVID-19 mortality in contiguous USA. For a start, stepwise and exploratory regression models were employed to isolate the main explanatory variables for COVID-19 mortality from the ensemble 33 socio-economic and health parameters between January 1st and 16th of September 2020. Preliminary results showed that only five out of the examined variables (case fatality rate, vulnerable population, poverty, percentage of adults that report no leisure-time physical activity, and percentage of the population with access to places for physical activity) can explain the variability of COVID-19 mortality across the Counties of contiguous USA within the study period. Consequently, we employ three global and two local regression algorithms to model the relationship between COVID-19 and the isolated socio-economic and health variables. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the adopted models can explain 61%-81% of COVID-19 mortality across the contiguous USA within the study period. However, MGWR yielded the highest R2 (0.81) and lowest AICc values (4031), emphasizing that it is the most efficient among the adopted regression models. The computed average adjusted R2 values show that local regression models (mean adj. R2 = 0.80) outperformed the global regression models (mean adj. R2 = 0.64), indicating that the former is ideal for modeling spatial causal relationships. The GIS-based optimized cluster analyses results show that hotspots for COVID-19 mortality as well as socioeconomic variables are mostly delineated in the South, Mid-West and Northeast of contiguous USA. COVID-19 mortality exhibited positive and significant association with black race (0.51), minority (0.48) and poverty (0.34). Whereas, the percentage of persons that attended college was negatively associated with poverty (-0.51), obesity (-0.50) and diabetes (-0.45). Results show that education is crucial to improve socio-economic and health conditions of the Americans. We conclude that investing in people's standard of living would reduce the vulnerability of an entire population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Akinola S Akinwumiju
- Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria
| | - Olawale Oluwafemi
- Spatially Integrated Social Science Program, Department of Geography and Planning, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH, USA
| | | | - Jacob W Mobolaji
- Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria
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Government Intervention, Human Mobility, and COVID-19: A Causal Pathway Analysis from 121 Countries. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14063694] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Based on data from 121 countries, the study assesses the dynamic effect and causality path of the government epidemic prevention policies and human mobility behaviors on the growth rates of COVID-19 new cases and deaths. Our results find that both policies and behaviors influenced COVID-19 cases and deaths. The direct effect of policies on COVID-19 was more than the indirect effect. Policies influence behaviors, and behaviors react spontaneously to information. Further, masks give people a false sense of security and increase mobility. The close public transport policy increased COVID-19 new cases. We also conducted sensitivity analysis and found that some policies hold robustly, such as the policies of school closing, restrictions on gatherings, stay-at-home requirements, international travel controls, facial coverings, and vaccination. The counterfactual tests suggest that, as of early March 2021, if governments had mandated masking policies early in the epidemic, the cases and deaths would have been reduced by 18% and 14% separately. If governments had implemented vaccination policies early in the pandemic, the cases and deaths would have been reduced by 93% and 62%, respectively. Without public transportation closures, cases and deaths would have been reduced by 40% and 10%, respectively.
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Sun W, Hu X, Hu Y, Zhang G, Guo Z, Lin J, Huang J, Cai X, Dai J, Wang X, Zhang X, Bi X, Zhong N. 大气环境对SARS-CoV-2传播的影响研究进展. CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE 2022. [DOI: 10.1360/tb-2021-1228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Leirião LFL, Debone D, Miraglia SGEK. Does air pollution explain COVID-19 fatality and mortality rates? A multi-city study in São Paulo state, Brazil. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2022; 194:275. [PMID: 35286482 PMCID: PMC8918908 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-022-09924-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2021] [Accepted: 03/05/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Since air pollution compromise the respiratory system and COVID-19 disease is caused by a respiratory virus, it is expected that air pollution plays an important role in the current COVID-19 pandemic. Exploratory studies have observed positive associations between air pollution and COVID-19 cases, deaths, fatality, and mortality rate. However, no study focused on Brazil, one of the most affected countries by the pandemic. Thus, this study aimed to understand how long-term exposure to PM10, PM2.5, and NO2 contributed to COVID-19 fatality and mortality rates in São Paulo state in 2020. Air quality data between 2015 and 2019 in 64 monitoring stations within 36 municipalities were considered. The COVID-19 fatality was calculated considering cases and deaths from the government's official data and the mortality rate was calculated considering the 2020 population. Linear regression models were well-fitted for PM2.5 concentration and fatality (R2 = 0.416; p = 0.003), NO2 concentration and fatality (R2 = 0.232; p = 0.005), and NO2 concentration and mortality (R2 = 0.273; p = 0.002). This study corroborates other authors' findings and enriches the discussion for having considered a longer time series to represent long-term exposure to the pollutants and for having considered one of the regions with the highest incidence of COVID-19 in the world. Thus, it reinforces measures to reduce the concentration of air pollutants which are essential for public health and will increase the chance to survive in future respiratory disease epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luciana Ferreira Leite Leirião
- Laboratory of Economics, Health and Environmental Pollution, Institute of Environmental, Chemical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Federal University of São Paulo, R São Nicolau, 210, Cep 09913-030, SP, Diadema, Brazil.
| | - Daniela Debone
- Laboratory of Economics, Health and Environmental Pollution, Institute of Environmental, Chemical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Federal University of São Paulo, R São Nicolau, 210, Cep 09913-030, SP, Diadema, Brazil
| | - Simone Georges El Khouri Miraglia
- Laboratory of Economics, Health and Environmental Pollution, Institute of Environmental, Chemical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Federal University of São Paulo, R São Nicolau, 210, Cep 09913-030, SP, Diadema, Brazil
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Ibarra-Espinosa S, Dias de Freitas E, Ropkins K, Dominici F, Rehbein A. Negative-Binomial and quasi-poisson regressions between COVID-19, mobility and environment in São Paulo, Brazil. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 204:112369. [PMID: 34767818 PMCID: PMC8577054 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112369] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2021] [Revised: 10/31/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
Brazil, the country most impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the southern hemisphere, use intensive care admissions per day, mobility and other indices to monitor quarantines and prevent the transmissions of SARS-CoV-2. In this study we quantified the associations between residential mobility index (RMI), air pollution, meteorology, and daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil. We applied a semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate: 1) the association between RMI and COVID-19, accounting for ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), relative humidity, temperature and delayed exposure between 4 and 21 days, and 2) the association between COVID-19 and exposure to for ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), accounting for relative humidity, temperature and mobility. We found that an RMI of 45.28% results in 1212 cases (95% CI: 1189 to 1235) and 44 deaths (95% CI: 40 to 47). Increasing the isolation from 45.28% to 50% would avoid 438 cases and 21 deaths. Also, we found that an increment of 10 μg⋅m-³ of PM2.5 results in a risk of 1.140 (95% CI: 1.021 to 1.274) for cases and 1.086 (95% CI: 1.008 to 1.170) for deaths, while O3 produces a relative risk of 1.075 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.150) for cases and 1.063 (95% CI: 1.006 to 1.124) for deaths, respectively. We compared our results with observations and literature review, finding well agreement. Policymakers can use such mobility indices as tools to control social distance activities. Spatial distancing is an important factor to control COVID-19, however, measuring face-mask usage would enhance the understanding the pandemic dynamic. Small increments of air pollution result in an increased number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sergio Ibarra-Espinosa
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil.
| | - Edmilson Dias de Freitas
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Karl Ropkins
- Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK
| | - Francesca Dominici
- Harvard Data Science Initiative, Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02138, USA
| | - Amanda Rehbein
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil
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Prinz AL, Richter DJ. Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution: An ecological study of its effect on COVID-19 cases and fatality in Germany. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 204:111948. [PMID: 34464613 PMCID: PMC8400616 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111948] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2021] [Revised: 08/20/2021] [Accepted: 08/20/2021] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 is a lung disease, and there is medical evidence that air pollution is one of the external causes of lung diseases. Fine particulate matter is one of the air pollutants that damages pulmonary tissue. The combination of the coronavirus and fine particulate matter air pollution may exacerbate the coronavirus' effect on human health. RESEARCH QUESTION This paper considers whether the long-term concentration of fine particulate matter of different sizes changes the number of detected coronavirus infections and the number of COVID-19 fatalities in Germany. STUDY DESIGN Data from 400 German counties for fine particulate air pollution from 2002 to 2020 are used to measure the long-term impact of air pollution. Kriging interpolation is applied to complement data gaps. With an ecological study, the correlation between average particulate matter air pollution and COVID-19 cases, as well as fatalities, are estimated with OLS regressions. Thereby, socioeconomic and demographic covariates are included. MAIN FINDINGS An increase in the average long-term air pollution of 1 μg/m3 particulate matter PM2.5 is correlated with 199.46 (SD = 29.66) more COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in Germany. For PM10 the respective increase is 52.38 (SD = 12.99) more cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The number of COVID-19 deaths were also positively correlated with PM2.5 and PM10 (6.18, SD = 1.44, respectively 2.11, SD = 0.71, additional COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). CONCLUSION Long-term fine particulate air pollution is suspected as causing higher numbers of COVID-19 cases. Higher long-term air pollution may even increase COVID-19 death rates. We find that the results of the correlation analysis without controls are retained in a regression analysis with controls for relevant confounding factors. Nevertheless, additional epidemiological investigations are required to test the causality of particulate matter air pollution for COVID-19 cases and the severity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aloys L Prinz
- Institute of Public Economics, University of Muenster, Wilmergasse 6-8, 48143, Muenster, Germany.
| | - David J Richter
- Institute of Public Economics, University of Muenster, Wilmergasse 6-8, 48143, Muenster, Germany.
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Zhang S, Wang B, Yin L, Wang S, Hu W, Song X, Feng H. Novel Evidence Showing the Possible Effect of Environmental Variables on COVID-19 Spread. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2021GH000502. [PMID: 35317468 PMCID: PMC8923516 DOI: 10.1029/2021gh000502] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2021] [Revised: 11/09/2021] [Accepted: 11/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains a serious issue, and the role played by meteorological indicators in the process of virus spread has been a topic of academic discussion. Previous studies reached different conclusions due to inconsistent methods, disparate meteorological indicators, and specific time periods or regions. This manuscript is based on seven daily meteorological indicators in the NCEP reanalysis data set and COVID-19 data repository of Johns Hopkins University from 22 January 2020 to 1 June 2021. Results showed that worldwide average temperature and precipitable water (PW) had the strongest correlation (ρ > 0.9, p < 0.001) with the confirmed COVID-19 cases per day from 22 January to 31 August 2020. From 22 January to 31 August 2020, positive correlations were observed between the temperature/PW and confirmed COVID-19 cases/deaths in the northern hemisphere, whereas negative correlations were recorded in the southern hemisphere. From 1 September to 31 December 2020, the opposite results were observed. Correlations were weak throughout the near full year, and weak negative correlations were detected worldwide (|ρ| < 0.4, p ≤ 0.05); the lag time had no obvious effect. As the latitude increased, the temperature and PW of the maximum confirmed COVID-19 cases/deaths per day generally showed a decreasing trend; the 2020-year fitting functions of the response latitude pattern were verified by the 2021 data. Meteorological indicators, although not a decisive factor, may influence the virus spread by affecting the virus survival rates and enthusiasm of human activities. The temperature or PW threshold suitable for the spread of COVID-19 may increase as the latitude decreases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sixuan Zhang
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Bingyun Wang
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Li Yin
- Panzhihua Central HospitalPanzhihuaChina
| | - Shigong Wang
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
- Zunyi Academician Work CenterZunyiChina
| | - Wendong Hu
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Xueqian Song
- College of ManagementChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
| | - Hongmei Feng
- College of Atmospheric ScienceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
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Han Y, Zhao W, Pereira P. Global COVID-19 pandemic trends and their relationship with meteorological variables, air pollutants and socioeconomic aspects. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 204:112249. [PMID: 34740619 PMCID: PMC8563087 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Revised: 10/18/2021] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Meteorological variables, air pollutants, and socioeconomic factors are associated with COVID-19 transmission. However, it is unclear what impact their interactions have on COVID-19 transmission, whether their impact on COVID-19 transmission is linear or non-linear, and where the inflexion points are. This study examined 1) the spatial and temporal trends in COVID-19 monthly infection rate of new confirmed cases per 100,000 people (Rn) in 188 countries/regions worldwide from March to November 2020; 2) the linear correlation between meteorological variables (temperature (T), rainfall (R), wind speed (WS), relative humidity (RH), air pressure (AP)), air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3)) and socioeconomic aspects (population density (PD), gross domestic product per capita (GDP), domestic general government health expenditure per capita (GHE)) and Rn, and 3) the interaction and non-linear effects of the different variables on Rn, based on GeoDetector and Boosted regression tree. The results showed that the global Rn had was spatially clustered, and the average Rn increased From March to November 2020. Global Rn was negatively correlated with meteorological variables (T, R, WS, AP) and positively correlated with air pollutants (NO2, SO2, O3) and socioeconomic aspects (GDP, GHE). The interaction of SO2 and O3, SO2 and RH, and O3 and T strongly affected Rn. The variables effect on COVID-19 transmission was non-linear, with one or more inflexion points. The findings of this work can provide a basis for developing a global response to COVID-19 for global sustainable development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Han
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
| | - Wenwu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
| | - Paulo Pereira
- Environmental Management Center, Mykolas Romeris University, Ateities g. 20, LT-08303, Vilnius, Lithuania.
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Chen H, Zhu Z, Ai C, Zhao Y, He C, He M, Chen B. Evaluating the mitigation strategies of COVID-19 by the application of the CO 2 emission data through high-resolution agent-based computational experiments. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 204:112077. [PMID: 34560060 PMCID: PMC8452542 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2021] [Revised: 08/12/2021] [Accepted: 09/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The negative consequences, such as healthy and environmental issues, brought by rapid urbanization and interactive human activities result in increasing social uncertainties, unreliable predictions, and poor management decisions. For instance, the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) occurred in 2019 has been plaguing many countries. Aiming at controlling the spread of COVID-19, countries around the world have adopted various mitigation and suppression strategies. However, how to comprehensively eva luate different mitigation strategies remains unexplored. To this end, based on the Artificial societies, Computational experiments, Parallel execution (ACP) approach, we proposed a system model, which clarifies the process to collect the necessary data and conduct large-scale computational experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of different mitigation strategies. Specifically, we established an artificial society of Wuhan city through geo-environment modeling, population modeling, contact behavior modeling, disease spread modeling and mitigation strategy modeling. Moreover, we established an evaluation model in terms of the control effects and economic costs of the mitigation strategy. With respect to the control effects, it is directly reflected by indicators such as the cumulative number of diseases and deaths, while the relationship between mitigation strategies and economic costs is built based on the CO2 emission. Finally, large-scale simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the mitigation strategies of six countries. The results reveal that the more strict mitigation strategies achieve better control effects and less economic costs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hailiang Chen
- College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China.
| | - Zhengqiu Zhu
- College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China; Research Group of Multi-scale Networked Systems, Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam (UvA), Science Park 904, 1096 XH, Amsterdam, P.O. Box 94323, Netherlands.
| | - Chuan Ai
- College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China.
| | - Yong Zhao
- College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China.
| | - Cheng He
- Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Fudan University, 200082, 2005 Songhu Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai City, China.
| | - Ming He
- Command and Control Engineering College, Peoples Liberation Army Engineering University, 210001, 1 Haifu Lane, Qinhuai District, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China.
| | - Bin Chen
- College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), 410073, 109 Deya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha City, Hunan province, China.
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Ismail IMI, Rashid MI, Ali N, Altaf BAS, Munir M. Temperature, humidity and outdoor air quality indicators influence COVID-19 spread rate and mortality in major cities of Saudi Arabia. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 204:112071. [PMID: 34562487 PMCID: PMC8457907 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112071] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2021] [Revised: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 09/11/2021] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
There is an increasing evidence that meteorological (temperature, relative humidity, dew) and air quality indicators (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO) are affecting the COVID-19 transmission rate and the number of deaths in many countries around the globe. However, there are contradictory results due to limited observations of these parameters and absence of conclusive evidence on such relationships in cold or hot arid tropical and subtropical desert climate of Gulf region. This is the first study exploring the relationships of the meteorological (temperature, relative humidity, and dew) and air quality indicators (PM10,CO, and SO2) with daily COVID-19 infections and death cases for a period of six months (1st March to August 31, 2020) in six selected cities of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by using generalized additive model. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to assess factors affecting the infections rate and deaths through the selection of best model whereas overfitting of multivariate model was avoided by using cross-validation. Spearman correlation indicated that exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) temperature and relative humidity (R > 0.5, P < 0.0001) are the main variables affecting the daily COVID-19 infections and deaths. EWMA temperature and relative humidity showed non linear relationships with the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths (DF > 1, P < 0.0001). Daily COVID-19 infections showed a positive relationship at temperature between 23 and 34.5 °C and relative humidity ranging from 30 to 60%; a negative relationship was found below and/or above these ranges. Similarly, the number of deaths had a positive relationship at temperature ˃28.7 °C and with relative humidity ˂40%, showing higher number of deaths above this temperature and below this relative humidity rate. All air quality indicators had linear relationships with the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths (P < 0.0001). Hence, variation in temperature, relative humidity and air pollution indicators could be important factors influencing the COVID-19 spread and mortality. Under the current scenario with rising temperature and relative humidity, the number of cases is increasing, hence it justifies an active government policy to lessen COVID-19 infection rate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iqbal M I Ismail
- Centre of Excellence in Environmental Studies, King Abdulaziz University, P.O Box 80216, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia; Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, King Abdulaziz University, P. O. Box 80203, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Muhammad Imtiaz Rashid
- Centre of Excellence in Environmental Studies, King Abdulaziz University, P.O Box 80216, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Nadeem Ali
- Centre of Excellence in Environmental Studies, King Abdulaziz University, P.O Box 80216, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Bothinah Abdullah Saeed Altaf
- Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Female Campus, King Abdulaziz University, P. O. Box 80203, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia
| | - Muhammad Munir
- Division of Biomedical and Life Sciences, Lancaster University, United Kingdom
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Notarte KI, Guerrero-Arguero I, Velasco JV, Ver AT, de Oliveira MHS, Catahay JA, Khan SR, Pastrana A, Juszczyk G, Torrelles JB, Lippi G, Martinez-Sobrido L, Henry BM. Characterization of the significant decline in humoral immune response six months post-SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination: A systematic review. J Med Virol 2022; 94:2939-2961. [PMID: 35229324 PMCID: PMC9088566 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27688] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 37.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Revised: 02/16/2022] [Accepted: 02/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
Accumulating evidence shows a progressive decline in the efficacy of coronavirus disease 2019 (SARS-CoV-2) mRNA vaccines such as Pfizer-BioNTech (mRNA BNT161b2) and Moderna (mRNA-1273) in preventing breakthrough infections due to diminishing humoral immunity over time. Thus, this review characterizes the kinetics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) antibodies after the second dose of a primary cycle of COVID-19 mRNA vaccination. A systematic search of literature was performed and a total of 18 articles (N=15,980 participants) were identified and reviewed. The percent difference of means of reported antibody titers were then calculated to determine the decline in humoral response after the peak levels post-vaccination. Findings revealed that the peak humoral response was reached at 21-28 days after the second dose, after which serum levels progressively diminished at 4-6 months post-vaccination. Additionally, results showed that regardless of age, sex, serostatus and presence of comorbidities, longitudinal data reporting antibody measurement exhibited a decline of both anti-receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG and anti-spike IgG, ranging from 94-95% at 90-180 days and 55-85% at 140-160 days, respectively, after the peak antibody response. This suggests that the rate of antibody decline may be independent of patient-related factors and peak antibody titers but mainly a function of time and antibody class/molecular target. Hence, this study highlights the necessity of more efficient vaccination strategies to provide booster administration in attenuating the effects of waning immunity, especially in the appearance of new variants of concerns (VoCs). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kin Israel Notarte
- Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Santo Tomas, Manila, Philippines
| | - Israel Guerrero-Arguero
- Disease Intervention & Prevention and Population Health Programs, Texas Biomedical Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Siddiqur Rahman Khan
- Disease Intervention & Prevention and Population Health Programs, Texas Biomedical Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas, USA
| | - Adriel Pastrana
- Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Santo Tomas, Manila, Philippines
| | - Grzegorz Juszczyk
- Department of Public Health, Medical University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Jordi B Torrelles
- Disease Intervention & Prevention and Population Health Programs, Texas Biomedical Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas, USA
| | - Giuseppe Lippi
- Section of Clinical Biochemistry, University of Verona, Verona, Italy
| | - Luis Martinez-Sobrido
- Disease Intervention & Prevention and Population Health Programs, Texas Biomedical Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas, USA
| | - Brandon Michael Henry
- Disease Intervention & Prevention and Population Health Programs, Texas Biomedical Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas, USA
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN, Baschir LA, Tenciu DV. Assessing the impact of air pollution and climate seasonality on COVID-19 multiwaves in Madrid, Spain. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 203:111849. [PMID: 34370990 PMCID: PMC8343379 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Revised: 08/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
While the COVID-19 pandemic is still in progress, being under the fifth COVID-19 wave in Madrid, over more than one year, Spain experienced a four wave pattern. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 pathogens in Madrid metropolitan region was investigated from an urban context associated with seasonal variability of climate and air pollution drivers. Based on descriptive statistics and regression methods of in-situ and geospatial daily time series data, this study provides a comparative analysis between COVID-19 waves incidence and mortality cases in Madrid under different air quality and climate conditions. During analyzed period 1 January 2020-1 July 2021, for each of the four COVID-19 waves in Madrid were recorded anomalous anticyclonic synoptic meteorological patterns in the mid-troposphere and favorable stability conditions for COVID-19 disease fast spreading. As airborne microbial temporal pattern is most affected by seasonal changes, this paper found: 1) a significant negative correlation of air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance with daily new COVID-19 incidence and deaths; 2) a similar mutual seasonality with climate variables of the first and the fourth COVID-waves from spring seasons of 2020 and 2021 years. Such information may help the health decision makers and public plan for the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania.
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Laurentiu A Baschir
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Daniel V Tenciu
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
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Páez-Osuna F, Valencia-Castañeda G, Rebolledo UA. The link between COVID-19 mortality and PM 2.5 emissions in rural and medium-size municipalities considering population density, dust events, and wind speed. CHEMOSPHERE 2022; 286:131634. [PMID: 34325266 PMCID: PMC8296377 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.131634] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2021] [Revised: 07/16/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
One contemporary issue is how environmental pollution and climate can affect the dissemination and severity of COVID-19 in humans. We documented the first case of association between particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) and COVID-19 mortality rates that involved rural and medium-sized municipalities in northwestern Mexico, where direct air quality monitoring is absent. Alternatively, anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions were used to estimate the PM2.5 exposure in each municipality using two scenarios: 1) considering the fraction derived from combustion of vehicle fuel; and 2) the one derived from modeled anthropogenic sources. This study provides insights to better understand and face future pandemics by examining the relation between PM2.5 pollution and COVID-19 mortality considering the population density and the wind speed. The main findings are: (i) municipalities with high PM2.5 emissions and high population density have a higher COVID-19 mortality rate; (ii) the exceptionally high COVID-19 mortality rates of the rural municipalities could be associated to dust events, which are common in these regions where soils without vegetation are dominant; and (iii) the influence of wind speed on COVID-19 mortality rate was evidenced only in municipalities with <100 inhabitants per km2. These results confirm the suggestion that high levels of air pollutants associated with high population density and an elevated frequency of dust events may promote an extended prevalence and severity of viral particles in the polluted air of urban, suburban, and rural communities. This supports an additional means of dissemination of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, in addition to the direct human-to-human transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Federico Páez-Osuna
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Unidad Académica Mazatlán, P.O. Box 811, Mazatlán, 82000, Sinaloa, Mexico; Miembro de El Colegio de Sinaloa, Antonio Rosales 435 Poniente, Culiacán, Sinaloa, Mexico.
| | - Gladys Valencia-Castañeda
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Unidad Académica Mazatlán, P.O. Box 811, Mazatlán, 82000, Sinaloa, Mexico
| | - Uriel Arreguin Rebolledo
- Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Unidad Académica Mazatlán, P.O. Box 811, Mazatlán, 82000, Sinaloa, Mexico
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Wei H, Liu S, Liu Y, Liu B, Gong X. The impact of meteorological factors on COVID‐19 of California and its lag effect. METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 2022; 29:e2045. [PMCID: PMC9088500 DOI: 10.1002/met.2045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
As of March 30, 2021, COVID‐19 has been circulating globally for more than 1 year, posing a huge threat to the safety of human life and property. Understanding the relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID‐19 can provide positive help for the prevention and control of the global epidemic. We take California as the research object, use Geodetector to screen out the meteorological factors with the strongest explanatory power for the epidemic, then use partial correlation analysis to study the correlation between the two, and finally construct a distributed lag non‐linear model (DLNM) to further explore the relationship between the dominant factor and COVID‐19 and its lag effect. It turns out that temperature has a greater impact on COVID‐19 and the two have a significant negative correlation. When the temperature is lower than 50°F, it has a significant promotion effect on the epidemic, and the relative risk (RR) increases approximately exponentially as the temperature decreases. The delayed effect of the cold effect on the epidemic can be as long as 15 days. This study has shown that more attention should be paid to epidemic prevention and control when the temperature is low, and the delay effect of temperature on the spread of the epidemic cannot be ignored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haitao Wei
- The School of the Geo‐Science & TechnologyZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
- Joint Laboratory of Eco‐MeteorologyZhengzhou University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
| | - Shihao Liu
- The School of the Geo‐Science & TechnologyZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
- Joint Laboratory of Eco‐MeteorologyZhengzhou University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
| | - Yan Liu
- The School of the Geo‐Science & TechnologyZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
- Joint Laboratory of Eco‐MeteorologyZhengzhou University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
| | - Bang Liu
- The School of the Geo‐Science & TechnologyZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
- Joint Laboratory of Eco‐MeteorologyZhengzhou University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
| | - Xiyun Gong
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouHenanChina
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Herrera-Añazco P, Urrunaga-Pastor D, Benites-Zapata VA, Bendezu-Quispe G, Toro-Huamanchumo CJ, Hernandez AV. COVID-19 symptomatology and compliance with community mitigation strategies in Latin America early during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prev Med Rep 2021; 25:101665. [PMID: 34909370 PMCID: PMC8662838 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2021.101665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2021] [Revised: 11/14/2021] [Accepted: 12/09/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Community mitigation strategies (CMS) have demonstrated to be effective in the reduction of transmission and incidence of COVID-19, especially in the population with symptoms associated with the disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the presence of COVID-19 symptoms and adherence to CMS in Latin American adults. Methods We carried out a secondary analysis of a database developed by the University of Maryland and Facebook social network during the COVID-19 pandemic. We included Latin American adults that used the Facebook platform and participated in a survey conducted from April 23 to May 23, 2020. The principal outcome variable was reported compliance with the three main CMS (physical distancing, use of face masks, and hand washing). The exposure variable included symptoms suspicious for COVID-19 defined as the presence of three or more symptoms of an acute clinical case of COVID-19. We performed generalized linear models of the Poisson family with a logarithmic link function to evaluate the association between the presence of COVID-19 symptoms and reported compliance with CMS. We calculated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) with their 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results We analyzed 1,310,690 adults from Latin America; 48.1% were male and 42.9% were under 35 years of age. The prevalence of suspicious symptoms of COVID-19 was 18.5% and reported compliance with the three CMS was 45.3%. The countries with the highest proportion of reported compliance with the three CMS were Peru, Bolivia and Panama, while those with the lowest reported compliance were Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. In the adjusted model, people with suspicious symptoms for COVID-19 had a 14% lower compliance with the three CMS (aPR = 0.86; 95%CI: 0.85-0.87; p < 0.001). Conclusions Less than half of the participants complied with the CMS, and those presenting suspicious symptoms for COVID-19 had lower reported compliance with the three CMS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Percy Herrera-Añazco
- Universidad Privada San Juan Bautista, Lima, Peru.,Instituto de Evaluación de Tecnologías en Salud e Investigación - IETSI, EsSalud, Lima, Peru.,Red Internacional en Salud Colectiva y Salud Intercultural, México, Mexico
| | | | - Vicente A Benites-Zapata
- Red Internacional en Salud Colectiva y Salud Intercultural, México, Mexico.,Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola, Unidad para la Generación y Síntesis de Evidencias en Salud, Lima, Peru
| | - Guido Bendezu-Quispe
- Red Internacional en Salud Colectiva y Salud Intercultural, México, Mexico.,Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener, Centro de Investigación Epidemiológica en Salud Global, Lima, Peru
| | - Carlos J Toro-Huamanchumo
- Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru.,Clínica Avendaño, Unidad de Investigación Multidisciplinaria, Lima, Peru
| | - Adrian V Hernandez
- University of Connecticut/Hartford Hospital Evidence-based Practice Center, Hartford, CT, USA.,Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola, Unidad de Revisiones Sistemáticas y Metaanálisis, Guías de Práctica Clínica y Evaluaciones Tecnológicas Sanitarias, Lima, Peru
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Sarmadi M, Rahimi S, Evensen D, Kazemi Moghaddam V. Interaction between meteorological parameters and COVID-19: an ecological study on 406 authorities of the UK. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:67082-67097. [PMID: 34244943 PMCID: PMC8270239 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-15279-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2021] [Accepted: 06/29/2021] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the factors affecting COVID-19 transmission is critical in assessing and mitigating the spread of the pandemic. This study investigated the transmissibility and death distribution of COVID-19 and its association with meteorological parameters to study the propagation pattern of COVID-19 in UK regions. We used the reported case and death per capita rate (as of November 13, 2020; before mass vaccination) and long-term meteorological data (temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and visibility) in 406 UK local authority levels based on publicity available secondary data. We performed correlation and regression analysis between COVID-19 variables and meteorological parameters to find the association between COVID-19 and independent variables. Student's T and Mann-Whitney's tests were used to analyze data. The correlation and regression analyses revealed that temperature, dew point, wind speed, and humidity were the most important factors associated with spread and death of COVID-19 (P <0.05). COVID-19 cases negatively correlated with humidity in areas with high population density, but the inverse in low population density areas. Wind speeds in low visibility areas, which are considered polluted air, may increase the spread of disease (r=0.42, P <0.05) and decrease the spread in high visibility areas (r=-0.16, P <0.05). Among low (T <10°C) and high (T >10°C) temperature areas, the average incidence rates were 2056.86 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1909.49-2204.23) and 1446.76 (95% CI: 1296.71-1596.81). Also, COVID-19 death per capita rates were 81.55 (95% CI: 77.40-85.70) and 69.78 (95% CI: 64.39-75.16) respectively. According to the comprehensive analysis, the spread of disease will be suppressed as the weather warms and humidity and wind speed decrease. Different environmental conditions can increase or decrease spread of the disease due to affecting spread of disease vectors and by altering people's behavior.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Sarmadi
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran.
- Health Sciences Research Center, Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran.
| | - Sajjad Rahimi
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran
- Health Sciences Research Center, Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran
| | - Darrick Evensen
- Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH89LF, UK.
| | - Vahid Kazemi Moghaddam
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Neyshabur University of Medical Sciences, Neyshabur, Iran
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Sanie-Jahromi F, NejatyJahromy Y, Jahromi RR. A Review on the Role of Stem Cells against SARS-CoV-2 in Children and Pregnant Women. Int J Mol Sci 2021; 22:11787. [PMID: 34769218 PMCID: PMC8584228 DOI: 10.3390/ijms222111787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2021] [Revised: 10/10/2021] [Accepted: 10/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the COVID-19 outbreak was acknowledged by the WHO on 30 January 2020, much research has been conducted to unveil various features of the responsible SARS-CoV-2 virus. Different rates of contagion in adults, children, and pregnant women may guide us to understand the underlying infection conditions of COVID-19. In this study, we first provide a review of recent reports of COVID-19 clinical outcomes in children and pregnant women. We then suggest a mechanism that explains the curious case of COVID-19 in children/pregnant women. The unique stem cell molecular signature, as well as the very low expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and the lower ACE/ACE2 ratio in stem cells of children/pregnant women compared to adults might be the cause of milder symptoms of COVID-19 in them. This study provides the main molecular keys on how stem cells can function properly and exert their immunomodulatory and regenerative effects in COVID-19-infected children/pregnant women, while failing to replicate their role in adults. This can lay the groundwork for both predicting the pattern of spread and severity of the symptoms in a population and designing novel stem cell-based treatment and prevention strategies for COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fatemeh Sanie-Jahromi
- Poostchi Ophthalmology Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz 7134997446, Iran;
| | - Yaser NejatyJahromy
- Institut für Physikalische und Theoretische Chemie, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, 53012 Bonn, Germany
| | - Rahim Raoofi Jahromi
- Department of Infectious Disease, Peymanieh Hospital, Jahrom University of Medical Science, Jahrom 7414846199, Iran
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Millán-Guerrero RO, Caballero-Hoyos R, Monárrez-Espino J. Poverty and survival from COVID-19 in Mexico. J Public Health (Oxf) 2021; 43:437-444. [PMID: 33367803 PMCID: PMC7798985 DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2020] [Revised: 11/05/2020] [Accepted: 11/11/2020] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Recent evidence points to the relevance of poverty and inequality as factors affecting the spread and mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19 patients living in Mexican municipalities with high levels of poverty have a lower survival compared with those living in municipalities with low levels. METHODS Retrospective cohort study. Secondary data was used to define the exposure (multidimensional poverty level) and outcome (survival time) among patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between 27 February and 1 July 2020. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) from Cox regression were computed. RESULTS Nearly 250 000 COVID-19 patients were included. Mortality was 12.3% reaching 59.3% in patients with ≥1 comorbidities. Multivariate survival analyses revealed that individuals living in municipalities with extreme poverty had 9% higher risk of dying at any given time proportionally to those living in municipalities classified as not poor (HR 1.09; 95% CI 1.06-1.12). The survival gap widened with the follow-up time up to the third to fourth weeks after diagnosis. CONCLUSION Evidence suggests that the poorest population groups have a lower survival from COVID-19. Thus, combating extreme poverty should be a central preventive strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Ramiro Caballero-Hoyos
- Clinical Epidemiology Research Unit, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Colima, Col, 28000, Mexico
| | - Joel Monárrez-Espino
- Health Sciences Division, University of Monterrey, Monterrey, N.L., 66238, Mexico
- Public Health Research Group, Claustro Universitario, Chihuahua, Chih., 31320, Mexico
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Sarmadi M, Ahmadi-Soleimani SM, Fararouei M, Dianatinasab M. COVID-19, body mass index and cholesterol: an ecological study using global data. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:1712. [PMID: 34548066 PMCID: PMC8453032 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-11715-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2021] [Accepted: 08/31/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is now globally considered a serious economic, social and health threat. A wide range of health related factors including Body Mass Index (BMI) is reported to be associated with the disease. In the present study, we analyzed global databases to assess the correlation of BMI and cholesterol with the risk of COVID-19. Methods In this ecological study, we used age-standardized BMI and cholesterol levels as well as the incidence and mortality ratio of COVID-19 at the national-levels obtained from the publicly available databases such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). Bivariate correlation analysis was applied to assess the correlations between the study variables. Mean differences (standard deviation: SD) of BMI and cholesterol levels of different groups were tested using independent sample t-test or Mann–Whitney rank test as appropriate. Multivariable linear regression analysis was performed to identify variables affecting the incidence and mortality ratio of COVID-19. Results Incidence and mortality ratio of COVID-19 were significantly higher in developed (29,639.85 ± 20,210.79 for cases and 503.24 ± 414.65 for deaths) rather than developing (8153.76 ± 11,626.36 for cases and 169.95 ± 265.78 for deaths) countries (P < 0.01). Results indicated that the correlations of BMI and cholesterol level with COVID-19 are stronger in countries with younger population. In general, the BMI and cholesterol level were positively correlated with COVID-19 incidence ratio (β = 2396.81 and β = 30,932.80, p < 0.01, respectively) and mortality ratio (β = 38.18 and β = 417.52, p < 0.05, respectively) after adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors. Conclusion Countries with higher BMI or cholesterol at aggregate levels had a higher ratios of COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The aggregated level of cholesterol and BMI are important risk factors for COVID-19 major outcomes, especially in developing countries with younger populations. We recommend monitoring and promotion of health indicices to better prevent morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11715-7.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Sarmadi
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran. .,Health Sciences Research Center, Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran.
| | - S Mohammad Ahmadi-Soleimani
- Department of Physiology, School of Paramedical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran. .,Neuroscience Research Center, Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran.
| | - Mohammad Fararouei
- Department of Epidemiology, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Mostafa Dianatinasab
- Department of Complex Genetics and Epidemiology, School of Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
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Benita F, Gasca-Sanchez F. The main factors influencing COVID-19 spread and deaths in Mexico: A comparison between phases I and II. APPLIED GEOGRAPHY (SEVENOAKS, ENGLAND) 2021; 134:102523. [PMID: 34334843 PMCID: PMC8313543 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2021.102523] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2020] [Revised: 07/11/2021] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
This article investigates the geographical spread of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths across municipalities in Mexico. It focuses on the spread dynamics and containment of the virus between Phase I (from March 23 to May 31, 2020) and Phase II (from June 1 to August 22, 2020) of the social distancing measures. It also examines municipal-level factors associated with cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths to understand the spatial determinants of the pandemic. The analysis of the geographic pattern of the pandemic via spatial scan statistics revealed a fast spread among municipalities. During Phase I, clusters of infections and deaths were mainly located at the country's center, whereas in Phase II, these clusters dispersed to the rest of the country. The regression results from the zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis suggested that income inequality, the prevalence of obesity and diabetes, and concentration of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) are strongly positively associated with confirmed cases and deaths regardless of lockdown.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Benita
- Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore University of Technology and Design, Singapore
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