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Grover EN, Buchwald AG, Ghosh D, Carlton EJ. Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? evidence from cell-phone data. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0305323. [PMID: 38905199 PMCID: PMC11192350 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2024] [Accepted: 05/24/2024] [Indexed: 06/23/2024] Open
Abstract
There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021. We also evaluated the evidence for seasonal effect modification by comparing the results of all-season (using season as a covariate) to season-stratified models. Four weather conditions were associated with both time spent indoors away-from-home and 12-day lagged COVID-19 hospital admissions in one or more season: high minimum temperature (all-season), low maximum temperature (spring), low minimum absolute humidity (winter), and high solar radiation (all-season & winter). In our mediation analyses, we found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, as well as other seasonal respiratory pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elise N. Grover
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Andrea G. Buchwald
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Debashis Ghosh
- Department of Biostatistics & Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth J. Carlton
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
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Menhat M, Ariffin EH, Dong WS, Zakaria J, Ismailluddin A, Shafril HAM, Muhammad M, Othman AR, Kanesan T, Ramli SP, Akhir MF, Ratnayake AS. Rain, rain, go away, come again another day: do climate variations enhance the spread of COVID-19? Global Health 2024; 20:43. [PMID: 38745248 PMCID: PMC11092248 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-024-01044-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/22/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
The spread of infectious diseases was further promoted due to busy cities, increased travel, and climate change, which led to outbreaks, epidemics, and even pandemics. The world experienced the severity of the 125 nm virus called the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2019. Many investigations revealed a strong correlation between humidity and temperature relative to the kinetics of the virus's spread into the hosts. This study aimed to solve the riddle of the correlation between environmental factors and COVID-19 by applying RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES) with the designed research question. Five temperature and humidity-related themes were deduced via the review processes, namely 1) The link between solar activity and pandemic outbreaks, 2) Regional area, 3) Climate and weather, 4) Relationship between temperature and humidity, and 5) the Governmental disinfection actions and guidelines. A significant relationship between solar activities and pandemic outbreaks was reported throughout the review of past studies. The grand solar minima (1450-1830) and solar minima (1975-2020) coincided with the global pandemic. Meanwhile, the cooler, lower humidity, and low wind movement environment reported higher severity of cases. Moreover, COVID-19 confirmed cases and death cases were higher in countries located within the Northern Hemisphere. The Blackbox of COVID-19 was revealed through the work conducted in this paper that the virus thrives in cooler and low-humidity environments, with emphasis on potential treatments and government measures relative to temperature and humidity. HIGHLIGHTS: • The coronavirus disease 2019 (COIVD-19) is spreading faster in low temperatures and humid area. • Weather and climate serve as environmental drivers in propagating COVID-19. • Solar radiation influences the spreading of COVID-19. • The correlation between weather and population as the factor in spreading of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masha Menhat
- Faculty of Maritime Studies, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Effi Helmy Ariffin
- Institute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia.
| | - Wan Shiao Dong
- Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Junainah Zakaria
- Institute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Aminah Ismailluddin
- Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | | | - Mahazan Muhammad
- Social, Environmental and Developmental Sustainability Research Center, Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Ahmad Rosli Othman
- Institute of Geology Malaysia, Board of Geologists, 62100, Putrajaya, Malaysia
| | - Thavamaran Kanesan
- Executive Office, Proofreading By A UK PhD, 51-1, Biz Avenue II, 63000, Cyberjaya, Malaysia
| | - Suzana Pil Ramli
- Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Mohd Fadzil Akhir
- Institute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
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Grover EN, Buchwald AG, Ghosh D, Carlton EJ. Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? Evidence from cell-phone data. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.03.26.24304854. [PMID: 38585859 PMCID: PMC10996765 DOI: 10.1101/2024.03.26.24304854] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/09/2024]
Abstract
Background There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. Objectives We aim to evaluate the extent to which weather impacts COVID-19 via time spent away-from-home in indoor spaces, as compared to a direct effect of weather on COVID-19 hospitalization, independent of mobility. Methods We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021. Results We found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Sensitivity analyses evaluating time at home as a mediator were consistent with these conclusions. Discussion Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and other seasonal respiratory pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elise N. Grover
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, USA
| | - Andrea G. Buchwald
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Debashis Ghosh
- Department of Biostatistics & Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, USA
| | - Elizabeth J. Carlton
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, USA
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Calvetti D, Somersalo E. Post-pandemic modeling of COVID-19: Waning immunity determines recurrence frequency. Math Biosci 2023; 365:109067. [PMID: 37708989 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2023.109067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023]
Abstract
There are many factors in the current phase of the COVID-19 pandemic that signal the need for new modeling ideas. In fact, most traditional infectious disease models do not address adequately the waning immunity, in particular as new emerging variants have been able to break the immune shield acquired either by previous infection by a different strain of the virus, or by inoculation of vaccines not effective for the current variant. Furthermore, in a post-pandemic landscape in which reporting is no longer a default, it is impossible to have reliable quantitative data at the population level. Our contribution to COVID-19 post-pandemic modeling is a simple mathematical predictive model along the age-distributed population framework, that can take into account the waning immunity in a transparent and easily controllable manner. Numerical simulations show that under static conditions, the model produces periodic solutions that are qualitatively similar to the reported data, with the period determined by the immunity waning profile. Evidence from the mathematical model indicates that the immunity dynamics is the main factor in the recurrence of infection spikes, however, irregular perturbation of the transmission rate, due to either mutations of the pathogen or human behavior, may result in suppression of recurrent spikes, and irregular time intervals between consecutive peaks. The spike amplitudes are sensitive to the transmission rate and vaccination strategies, but also to the skewness of the profile describing the waning immunity, suggesting that these factors should be taken into consideration when making predictions about future outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Calvetti
- Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, 30100 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44106, United States of America
| | - E Somersalo
- Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, 30100 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44106, United States of America.
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Zoran M, Savastru R, Savastru D, Tautan M, Tenciu D. Linkage between Airborne Particulate Matter and Viral Pandemic COVID-19 in Bucharest. Microorganisms 2023; 11:2531. [PMID: 37894189 PMCID: PMC10609195 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms11102531] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2023] [Revised: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 09/25/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The long-distance spreading and transport of airborne particulate matter (PM) of biogenic or chemical compounds, which are thought to be possible carriers of SARS-CoV-2 virions, can have a negative impact on the incidence and severity of COVID-19 viral disease. Considering the total Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm (AOD) as an atmospheric aerosol loading variable, inhalable fine PM with a diameter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) or coarse PM with a diameter ≤10 µm (PM10) during 26 February 2020-31 March 2022, and COVID-19's five waves in Romania, the current study investigates the impact of outdoor PM on the COVID-19 pandemic in Bucharest city. Through descriptive statistics analysis applied to average daily time series in situ and satellite data of PM2.5, PM10, and climate parameters, this study found decreased trends of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations of 24.58% and 18.9%, respectively compared to the pre-pandemic period (2015-2019). Exposure to high levels of PM2.5 and PM10 particles was positively correlated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The derived average PM2.5/PM10 ratios during the entire pandemic period are relatively low (<0.44), indicating a dominance of coarse traffic-related particles' fraction. Significant reductions of the averaged AOD levels over Bucharest were recorded during the first and third waves of COVID-19 pandemic and their associated lockdowns (~28.2% and ~16.4%, respectively) compared to pre-pandemic period (2015-2019) average AOD levels. The findings of this research are important for decision-makers implementing COVID-19 safety controls and health measures during viral infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Zoran
- C Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, 409 Atomistilor Street, MG5, 077125 Magurele, Romania; (R.S.); (D.S.); (M.T.); (D.T.)
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Poelzl S, Rieger J, Zatloukal K, Augl S, Stummer M, Hinterer A, Kittinger C. Inactivation of Bacteriophage ɸ6 and SARS-CoV-2 in Antimicrobial Surface Tests. Viruses 2023; 15:1833. [PMID: 37766240 PMCID: PMC10535131 DOI: 10.3390/v15091833] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Revised: 08/18/2023] [Accepted: 08/22/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have focused on new preventive measures to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. One promising application is the usage of antimicrobial materials on often-touched surfaces to reduce the load of infectious virus particles. Since tests with in vitro-propagated SARS-CoV-2 require biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) laboratories with limited capacities and high costs, experiments with an appropriate surrogate like the bacteriophage ɸ6 are preferred in most studies. The aim of this study was to compare ɸ6 and SARS-CoV-2 within antiviral surface tests. Different concentrations of copper coatings on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) were used to determine their neutralizing activity against ɸ6 and SARS-CoV-2. The incubation on the different specimens led to similar inactivation of both SARS-CoV-2 and ɸ6. After 24 h, no infectious virus particles were evident on any of the tested samples. Shorter incubation periods on specimens with high copper concentrations also showed a complete inactivation. In contrast, the uncoated PET foils resulted only in a negligible reduced inactivation during the one-hour incubation. The similar reduction rate for ɸ6 and SARS-CoV-2 in our experiments provide further evidence that the bacteriophage ɸ6 is an adequate model organism for SARS-CoV-2 for this type of testing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sabine Poelzl
- Diagnostic and Research Institute of Hygiene, Microbiology and Environmental Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Neue Stiftingtalstraße 2A, 8010 Graz, Austria;
| | - Julia Rieger
- Diagnostic and Research Institute of Pathology, Medical University Graz, Neue Stiftingtalstraße 6, 8010 Graz, Austria; (J.R.); (K.Z.)
| | - Kurt Zatloukal
- Diagnostic and Research Institute of Pathology, Medical University Graz, Neue Stiftingtalstraße 6, 8010 Graz, Austria; (J.R.); (K.Z.)
| | - Stefan Augl
- Department of Materials Technology, University of Applied Sciences Upper Austria, Stelzhamerstraße 23, 4600 Wels, Austria;
| | - Maximilian Stummer
- INOCON Technologie GmbH, Wiener Straße 3, 4800 Attnang-Puchheim, Austria; (M.S.); (A.H.)
| | - Andreas Hinterer
- INOCON Technologie GmbH, Wiener Straße 3, 4800 Attnang-Puchheim, Austria; (M.S.); (A.H.)
| | - Clemens Kittinger
- Diagnostic and Research Institute of Hygiene, Microbiology and Environmental Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Neue Stiftingtalstraße 2A, 8010 Graz, Austria;
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN. Peculiar weather patterns effects on air pollution and COVID-19 spread in Tokyo metropolis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 228:115907. [PMID: 37080275 PMCID: PMC10111861 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 04/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
As a pandemic hotspot in Japan, between March 1, 2020-October 1, 2022, Tokyo metropolis experienced seven COVID-19 waves. Motivated by the high rate of COVID-19 incidence and mortality during the seventh wave, and environmental/health challenges we conducted a time-series analysis to investigate the long-term interaction of air quality and climate variability with viral pandemic in Tokyo. Through daily time series geospatial and observational air pollution/climate data, and COVID-19 incidence and death cases, this study compared the environmental conditions during COVID-19 multiwaves. In spite of five State of Emergency (SOEs) restrictions associated with COVID-19 pandemic, during (2020-2022) period air quality recorded low improvements relative to (2015-2019) average annual values, namely: Aerosol Optical Depth increased by 9.13% in 2020 year, and declined by 6.64% in 2021, and 12.03% in 2022; particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 decreased during 2020, 2021, and 2022 years by 10.22%, 62.26%, 0.39%, and respectively by 4.42%, 3.95%, 5.76%. For (2021-2022) period the average ratio of PM2.5/PM10 was (0.319 ± 0.1640), showing a higher contribution to aerosol loading of traffic-related coarse particles in comparison with fine particles. The highest rates of the daily recorded COVID-19 incidence and death cases in Tokyo during the seventh COVID-19 wave (1 July 2022-1 October 2022) may be attributed to accumulation near the ground of high levels of air pollutants and viral pathogens due to: 1) peculiar persistent atmospheric anticyclonic circulation with strong positive anomalies of geopotential height at 500 hPa; 2) lower levels of Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) heights; 3) high daily maximum air temperature and land surface temperature due to the prolonged heat waves (HWs) in summer 2022; 4) no imposed restrictions. Such findings can guide public decision-makers to design proper strategies to curb pandemics under persistent stable anticyclonic weather conditions and summer HWs in large metropolitan areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania.
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
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Balboni E, Filippini T, Rothman KJ, Costanzini S, Bellino S, Pezzotti P, Brusaferro S, Ferrari F, Orsini N, Teggi S, Vinceti M. The influence of meteorological factors on COVID-19 spread in Italy during the first and second wave. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 228:115796. [PMID: 37019296 PMCID: PMC10069087 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115796] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2023] [Revised: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 03/28/2023] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
The relation between meteorological factors and COVID-19 spread remains uncertain, particularly with regard to the role of temperature, relative humidity and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To assess this relation, we investigated disease spread within Italy during 2020. The pandemic had a large and early impact in Italy, and during 2020 the effects of vaccination and viral variants had not yet complicated the dynamics. We used non-linear, spline-based Poisson regression of modeled temperature, UV and relative humidity, adjusting for mobility patterns and additional confounders, to estimate daily rates of COVID-19 new cases, hospital and intensive care unit admissions, and deaths during the two waves of the pandemic in Italy during 2020. We found little association between relative humidity and COVID-19 endpoints in both waves, whereas UV radiation above 40 kJ/m2 showed a weak inverse association with hospital and ICU admissions in the first wave, and a stronger relation with all COVID-19 endpoints in the second wave. Temperature above 283 K (10 °C/50 °F) showed a strong non-linear negative relation with COVID-19 endpoints, with inconsistent relations below this cutpoint in the two waves. Given the biological plausibility of a relation between temperature and COVID-19, these data add support to the proposition that temperature above 283 K, and possibly high levels of solar UV radiation, reduced COVID-19 spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erica Balboni
- Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; Health Physics Unit, Modena Policlinico University Hospital, Modena, Italy
| | - Tommaso Filippini
- Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Kenneth J Rothman
- Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Sofia Costanzini
- Department of Engineering 'Enzo Ferrari', University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy
| | - Stefania Bellino
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Italian National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy
| | - Patrizio Pezzotti
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Italian National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy
| | - Silvio Brusaferro
- Presidency, Italian National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy; Department of Medicine, University of Udine, Udine, Italy
| | | | - Nicola Orsini
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sergio Teggi
- Department of Engineering 'Enzo Ferrari', University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy
| | - Marco Vinceti
- Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
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da Silva FP, Luís MF, Jesus F, Ribeiro J, Almeida É, Braga S, Ferreira L. Interleukin-6 in COVID-19 Severity Stratification. TANAFFOS 2023; 22:382-388. [PMID: 39176139 PMCID: PMC11338506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2022] [Accepted: 01/10/2023] [Indexed: 08/24/2024]
Abstract
Background The increase in the number of patients with COVID-19 on a global scale made the early recognition of severe forms of the disease essential. Considering that IL-6 acts as a pro-inflammatory mediator, mediating acute phase responses, the objective of this study was to assess its value in the early severity stratification of SARS-CoV2 infection. Materials and Methods It was a prospective study included IL-6 measurement in patients with SARS-CoV2 infection upon admission to the emergency department. Two groups were considered (Group I: patients without hospitalization criteria; Group II: patients with hospitalization criteria). Analyzed variables were serum levels of IL-6, C-reactive protein, ferritin, d-dimers, sociodemographics, ventilator support, ICU admission, mortality, dates of diagnosis, hospitalization, and discharge. For the statistical analyses, Mann-Whitney test, Pearson's chi-square test, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Youden index, and Spearman correlation were applied. Results A total number of 117 patients were included. Mean age was significantly higher for group II (72,35±15,39 years; p<0,001). No statistically significant difference was seen between the groups regarding gender (p=0,111). The IL-6 values showed an excellent power of discrimination for the need for hospitalization (AUC=0,888; p<0,001) and the need for ICU admission (AUC=0,897; p=7.9 × 10-5). Also, its cut-off value of 12,4pg/mL for the need for hospitalization and 42,95 pg/mL for the need for ICU admission was determined. Positive correlation was seen between IL-6 value and length of stay [r(35)=0,380; p=0,020]. Three deaths were observed among patients with hospitalization criteria (8,1%). Conclusion The value of IL-6 at admission seems to independently influence the probability of hospitalization (general ward or ICU) and its duration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fernando Pereira da Silva
- Department of Pulmonology, Unidade Local de Saúde da Guarda, Avenida Rainha Dona Amélia 19, 6300-749, Guarda, Portugal
- Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde – Universidade da Beira Interior, Avenida Infante D. Henrique, 6200-506, Covilhã, Portugal
| | - Maria Filomena Luís
- Department of Pulmonology, Unidade Local de Saúde da Guarda, Avenida Rainha Dona Amélia 19, 6300-749, Guarda, Portugal
- Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde – Universidade da Beira Interior, Avenida Infante D. Henrique, 6200-506, Covilhã, Portugal
| | - Filipa Jesus
- Department of Pulmonology, Unidade Local de Saúde da Guarda, Avenida Rainha Dona Amélia 19, 6300-749, Guarda, Portugal
| | - Joana Ribeiro
- Department of Pulmonology, Unidade Local de Saúde da Guarda, Avenida Rainha Dona Amélia 19, 6300-749, Guarda, Portugal
| | - Élin Almeida
- Department of Pulmonology, Unidade Local de Saúde da Guarda, Avenida Rainha Dona Amélia 19, 6300-749, Guarda, Portugal
| | - Sara Braga
- Department of Pulmonology, Unidade Local de Saúde da Guarda, Avenida Rainha Dona Amélia 19, 6300-749, Guarda, Portugal
| | - Luís Ferreira
- Department of Pulmonology, Unidade Local de Saúde da Guarda, Avenida Rainha Dona Amélia 19, 6300-749, Guarda, Portugal
- Faculdade de Ciências da Saúde – Universidade da Beira Interior, Avenida Infante D. Henrique, 6200-506, Covilhã, Portugal
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Neves JMM, Belo VS, Catita CMS, de Oliveira BFA, Horta MAP. Modeling the Climatic Suitability of COVID-19 Cases in Brazil. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:tropicalmed8040198. [PMID: 37104323 PMCID: PMC10142792 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2023] [Revised: 03/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/26/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Studies have shown that climate may affect the distribution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its incidence and fatality rates. Here, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project the climatic suitability of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. We estimated the cumulative incidence, mortality rate, and fatality rate of COVID-19 between 2020 and 2021. Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected to model the climate suitability for COVID-19 cases from diverse climate data, including temperature, precipitation, and humidity. The annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality showed a relatively high contribution to the models, partially explaining the distribution of COVID-19 cases in Brazil based on the climatic suitability of the territory. We observed a high probability of climatic suitability for high incidence in the North and South regions and a high probability of mortality and fatality rates in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Despite the social, viral, and human aspects regulating COVID-19 cases and death distribution, we suggest that climate may play an important role as a co-factor in the spread of cases. In Brazil, there are regions with a high probability that climatic suitability will contribute to the high incidence and fatality rates of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.
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Lim HJ, Park MY, Baek YH, Lee HS, Kim I, Kwon Y, You Y, Nam K, Yang JH, Kim MJ, Yu N, Sohn YH, Park JE, Yang YJ. Evaluation of Four Rapid Antigen Tests for the Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Infection with Nasopharyngeal Swabs. Biomedicines 2023; 11:biomedicines11030701. [PMID: 36979680 PMCID: PMC10045780 DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines11030701] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2023] [Revised: 02/16/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Owing to the high transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, the capacity of testing systems based on the gold standard real-time reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) is limited. Rapid antigen tests (RATs) can substantially contribute to the prevention of community transmission, but their further assessment is required. Here, using 1503 nasopharyngeal swabs, we compared the diagnostic performance of four RAT kits (Abbott Panbio™ COVID-19 Ag Rapid Test, SD Biosensor Standard™ Q COVID-19 Ag Test, Humasis COVID-19 Ag Test, and SG Medical Acrosis COVID-19 Ag Test) to the cycle threshold (Ct) values obtained from rRT-PCR. The precision values, area under the curve values, SARS-CoV-2 variant detection ability, and non-SARS-CoV-2 specificity of all four kits were similar. An assay using the Acrosis kit had a significantly better positive detection rate with a higher recall value and cut-off value than that using the other three RAT kits. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, the Acrosis kit is an effective tool to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ho-Jae Lim
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
- Department of Integrative Biological Sciences & BK21 FOUR Educational Research Group for Age-Associated Disorder Control Technology, Chosun University, Gwangju 61452, Republic of Korea
| | - Min-Young Park
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Young-Hyun Baek
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Hyeon-Seo Lee
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Inhee Kim
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Youngjin Kwon
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Youngshin You
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Kyoungwoo Nam
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae-Hyun Yang
- Paul F. Glenn Center for Biology of Aging Research, Department of Genetics, Blavatnik Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Min-Jin Kim
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Nae Yu
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Yong-Hak Sohn
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
| | - Jung-Eun Park
- Department of Integrative Biological Sciences & BK21 FOUR Educational Research Group for Age-Associated Disorder Control Technology, Chosun University, Gwangju 61452, Republic of Korea
- Correspondence: (J.-E.P.); (Y.-J.Y.)
| | - Yong-Jin Yang
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, Seegene Medical Foundation, Seoul 04805, Republic of Korea
- Correspondence: (J.-E.P.); (Y.-J.Y.)
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12
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Ticinesi A, Parise A, Nouvenne A, Cerundolo N, Prati B, Guerra A, Tuttolomondo D, Gaibazzi N, Meschi T. Insights from comparison of the clinical presentation and outcomes of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in an Italian internal medicine ward during first and third wave. Front Med (Lausanne) 2023; 10:1112728. [PMID: 36817786 PMCID: PMC9928966 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1112728] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2022] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The reasons of variability of clinical presentation of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) across different pandemic waves are not fully understood, and may include individual risk profile, SARS-CoV-2 lineage and seasonal variations of viral spread. The objective of this retrospective study was to compare the characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted with confirmed coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) in the same season during the first (March 2020) and the third pandemic wave (March 2021, dominance of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 lineage) in an internal medicine ward of a large teaching hospital in Italy. Materials and methods Data of 769 unvaccinated patients (399 from the first and 370 from the third wave) were collected from clinical records, including symptom type and duration, extension of lung abnormalities on chest computed tomography (CT) and PaO2/FiO2 ratio on admission arterial blood gas analysis. Results Third wave patients were in average younger (median 65, interquartile range [IQR] 55-75, vs. 72, IQR 61-81 years old, p < 0.001), with less comorbidities and better pulmonary (CT visual score median 25, IQR 15-40, vs. 30, IQR 15-50, age- and sex-adjusted p = 0.017) and respiratory involvement (PaO2/FiO2 median 288, IQR 237-338, vs. 233, IQR 121-326 mmHg, age- and sex-adjusted p < 0.001) than first wave patients. Hospital mortality was lower (19% vs. 36%, p < 0.001), but not for subjects over 75 years old (46 vs. 49%). Age, number of chronic illnesses, PCT levels, CT visual score [Odds Ratio (OR) 1.022, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.009-1.036, p < 0.001] and PaO2/FiO2 (OR 0.991, 95% CI 0.988-0.994, p < 0.001), but not the pandemic wave, were associated with mortality on stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis. Conclusion Despite the higher virulence of B.1.1.7 lineage, we detected milder clinical presentation and improved mortality in patients hospitalized during the third COVID-19 wave, with involvement of younger subjects. The reasons of this discrepancy are unclear, but could involve the population effect of vaccination campaigns, that were being conducted primarily in older frail subjects during the third wave.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Ticinesi
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy,Geriatric-Rehabilitation Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy,*Correspondence: Andrea Ticinesi, ✉
| | - Alberto Parise
- Geriatric-Rehabilitation Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Antonio Nouvenne
- Geriatric-Rehabilitation Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Nicoletta Cerundolo
- Geriatric-Rehabilitation Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Beatrice Prati
- Geriatric-Rehabilitation Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Angela Guerra
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy,Geriatric-Rehabilitation Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Domenico Tuttolomondo
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy,Cardiology Unit, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Nicola Gaibazzi
- Cardiology Unit, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Tiziana Meschi
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy,Geriatric-Rehabilitation Department, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy
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13
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Alaniz AJ, Carvajal MA, Carvajal JG, Vergara PM. Effects of air pollution and weather on the initial COVID-19 outbreaks in United States, Italy, Spain, and China: A comparative study. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2023; 43:8-18. [PMID: 36509703 PMCID: PMC9877606 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 11/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Contrasting effects have been identified in association of weather (temperature and humidity) and pollutant gases with COVID-19 infection, which could be derived from the influence of lockdowns and season change. The influence of pollutant gases and climate during the initial phases of the pandemic, before the closures and the change of season in the northern hemisphere, is unknown. Here, we used a spatial-temporal Bayesian zero-inflated-Poisson model to test for short-term associations of weather and pollutant gases with the relative risk of COVID-19 disease in China (first outbreak) and the countries with more cases during the initial pandemic (the United States, Spain and Italy), considering also the effects of season and lockdown. We found contrasting association between pollutant gases and COVID-19 risk in the United States, Italy, and Spain, while in China it was negatively associated (except for SO2 ). COVID-19 risk was positively associated with specific humidity in all countries, while temperature presented a negative effect. Our findings showed that short-term associations of air pollutants with COVID-19 infection vary strongly between countries, while generalized effects of temperature (negative) and humidity (positive) with COVID-19 was found. Our results show novel information about the influence of pollution and weather on the initial outbreaks, which contribute to unravel the mechanisms during the beginning of the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto J. Alaniz
- Departamento de Ingeniería Geoespacial y Ambiental, Facultad de IngenieríaUniversidad de Santiago de ChileSantiagoChile
- Facultad de Ciencias BiológicasPontificia Universidad Católica de ChileSantiagoChile
- Departamento de Gestión Agraria, Facultad TecnológicaUniversidad de Santiago de ChileSantiagoChile
- Centro de Estudios en Ecología Espacial y Medio AmbienteEcogeografíaSantiagoChile
| | - Mario A. Carvajal
- Facultad de Ciencias BiológicasPontificia Universidad Católica de ChileSantiagoChile
- Departamento de Gestión Agraria, Facultad TecnológicaUniversidad de Santiago de ChileSantiagoChile
| | - Jorge G. Carvajal
- Departamento de Gestión Agraria, Facultad TecnológicaUniversidad de Santiago de ChileSantiagoChile
- Centro de Estudios en Ecología Espacial y Medio AmbienteEcogeografíaSantiagoChile
| | - Pablo M. Vergara
- Departamento de Gestión Agraria, Facultad TecnológicaUniversidad de Santiago de ChileSantiagoChile
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14
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Johnsen MG, Christiansen LE, Græsbøll K. Seasonal variation in the transmission rate of covid-19 in a temperate climate can be implemented in epidemic population models by using daily average temperature as a proxy for seasonal changes in transmission rate. MICROBIAL RISK ANALYSIS 2022; 22:100235. [PMID: 36248679 PMCID: PMC9546506 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2022.100235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Revised: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 09/28/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
From march 2020 to march 2022 covid-19 has shown a consistent pattern of increasing infections during the Winter and low infection numbers during the Summer. Understanding the effects of seasonal variation on covid-19 spread is crucial for future epidemic modelling and management. In this study, seasonal variation in the transmission rate of covid-19, was estimated based on an epidemic population model of covid-19 in Denmark, which included changes in national restrictions and introduction of the α -variant covid-19 strain, in the period March 2020 - March 2021. Seasonal variation was implemented as a logistic temperature dependent scaling of the transmission rate, and parameters for the logistic relationship was estimated through rejection-based approximate bayesian computation (ABC). The likelihoods used in the ABC were based on national hospital admission data and seroprevalence data stratified into nine and two age groups, respectively. The seasonally induced reduction in the transmission rate of covid-19 in Denmark was estimated to be 27 % , (95% CI [ 24 % ; 31 % ]), when moving from peak Winter to peak Summer. The reducing effect of seasonality on transmission rate per + 1 ∘ C in daily average temperature were shown to vary based on temperature, and were estimated to be - 2.2 % [ - 2.8 % ; - 1.7 % ] pr. 1 ∘ C around 2 ∘ C; 2 % [ - 2.3 % ; - 1.7 % ] pr. 1 ∘ C around 7 ∘ C; and 1.7 % [ - 2.0 % ; - 1.5 % ] pr. 1 ∘ C around a daily average temperature of 11 ∘ C.
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Affiliation(s)
- Morten Guldborg Johnsen
- DTU Compute, Technical University of Denmark, Building 324, Richard Petersens Plads, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
| | | | - Kaare Græsbøll
- DTU Compute, Technical University of Denmark, Building 324, Richard Petersens Plads, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
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15
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Nguyen KQ, Nguyen LMA, Taylor-Robinson AW. Global "flu-ization" of COVID-19: A perspective from Vietnam. Front Public Health 2022; 10:987467. [PMID: 36262220 PMCID: PMC9574250 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.987467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2022] [Accepted: 09/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Le My Anh Nguyen
- College of Health Sciences, VinUniversity, Hanoi, Vietnam
- Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew W. Taylor-Robinson
- College of Health Sciences, VinUniversity, Hanoi, Vietnam
- Center for Global Health, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States
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16
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Ndlovu M, Moyo R, Mpofu M. Modelling COVID-19 infection with seasonality in Zimbabwe. PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH (2002) 2022; 127:103167. [PMID: 35642222 PMCID: PMC9132494 DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2022.103167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2021] [Revised: 02/16/2022] [Accepted: 05/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
This paper presents evidence and the existence of seasonality in current existing COVID-19 datasets for three different countries namely Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Botswana. Therefore, we modified the SVIR model through factoring in the seasonality effect by incorporating moving averages and signal processing techniques to the disease transmission rate. The simulation results strongly established the existence of seasonality in COVID-19 dynamics with a correlation of 0.746 between models with seasonality effect at 0.001 significance level. Finally, the model was used to predict the magnitude and occurrence of the fourth wave.
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17
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN. Cumulative effects of air pollution and climate drivers on COVID-19 multiwaves in Bucharest, Romania. PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION : TRANSACTIONS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS, PART B 2022; 166:368-383. [PMID: 36034108 PMCID: PMC9391082 DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2022.08.042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Revised: 08/12/2022] [Accepted: 08/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Over more than two years of global health crisis due to ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Romania experienced a five-wave pattern. This study aims to assess the potential impact of environmental drivers on COVID-19 transmission in Bucharest, capital of Romania during the analyzed epidemic period. Through descriptive statistics and cross-correlation tests applied to time series of daily observational and geospatial data of major outdoor inhalable particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) or ≤ 10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm (AOD) and radon (222Rn), we investigated the COVID-19 waves patterns under different meteorological conditions. This study examined the contribution of individual climate variables on the ground level air pollutants concentrations and COVID-19 disease severity. As compared to the long-term average AOD over Bucharest from 2015 to 2019, for the same year periods, this study revealed major AOD level reduction by ~28 % during the spring lockdown of the first COVID-19 wave (15 March 2020-15 May 2020), and ~16 % during the third COVID-19 wave (1 February 2021-1 June 2021). This study found positive correlations between exposure to air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO and 222Rn, and significant negative correlations, especially for spring-summer periods between ground O3 levels, air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance with COVID-19 incidence and deaths. For the analyzed time period 1 January 2020-1 April 2022, before and during each COVID-19 wave were recorded stagnant synoptic anticyclonic conditions favorable for SARS-CoV-2 virus spreading, with positive Omega surface charts composite average (Pa/s) at 850 mb during fall- winter seasons, clearly evidenced for the second, the fourth and the fifth waves. These findings are relevant for viral infections controls and health safety strategies design in highly polluted urban environments.
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Key Words
- 222Rn
- 222Rn, Radon
- AOD, Total Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm
- Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
- CAMS, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
- CO, Carbon monoxide
- COVID, 19 Coronavirus Disease 2019
- COVID-19 disease
- Climate variables
- DNC, Daily New COVID-19 positive cases
- DND, Daily New COVID-19 Deaths
- MERS, CoV Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus
- NO2, Nitrogen dioxide
- NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S.A.
- O3, Ozone
- Outdoor air pollutants
- PBL, Planetary Boundary Layer height
- PM, Particulate Matter: PM1(1 µm), PM2.5 (2.5 µm) and PM10(10.0 µm) diameter
- RH, Air relative humidity
- SARS, CoV Severe Outdoor Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
- SARS, CoV-2 Severe Outdoor Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
- SI, Surface solar global irradiance
- SO2, Sulfur dioxide
- Synoptic meteorological circulation
- T, Air temperature at 2 m height
- p, Air pressure
- w, Wind speed intensity
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
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18
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Li HL, Yang BY, Wang LJ, Liao K, Sun N, Liu YC, Ma RF, Yang XD. A meta-analysis result: Uneven influences of season, geo-spatial scale and latitude on relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 transmission. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 212:113297. [PMID: 35436453 PMCID: PMC9011904 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2022] [Revised: 04/08/2022] [Accepted: 04/09/2022] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Meteorological factors have been confirmed to affect the COVID-19 transmission, but current studied conclusions varied greatly. The underlying causes of the variance remain unclear. Here, we proposed two scientific questions: (1) whether meteorological factors have a consistent influence on virus transmission after combining all the data from the studies; (2) whether the impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission can be influenced by season, geospatial scale and latitude. We employed a meta-analysis to address these two questions using results from 2813 published articles. Our results showed that, the influence of meteorological factors on the newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases varied greatly among existing studies, and no consistent conclusion can be drawn. After grouping outbreak time into cold and warm seasons, we found daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures have significant positive influences on the newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases in cold season, while significant negative influences in warm season. After dividing the scope of the outbreak into national and urban scales, relative humidity significantly inhibited the COVID-19 transmission at the national scale, but no effect on the urban scale. The negative impact of relative humidity, and the positive impacts of maximum temperatures and wind speed on the newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases increased with latitude. The relationship of maximum and minimum temperatures with the newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases were more susceptible to season, while relative humidity's relationship was more affected by latitude and geospatial scale. Our results suggested that relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 transmission can be affected by season, geospatial scale and latitude. A rise in temperature would promote virus transmission in cold seasons. We suggested that the formulation and implementation of epidemic prevention and control should mainly refer to studies at the urban scale. The control measures should be developed according to local meteorological properties for individual city.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong-Li Li
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Bai-Yu Yang
- College of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China
| | - Li-Jing Wang
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Ke Liao
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Nan Sun
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Yong-Chao Liu
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Ningbo Universities Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research at Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Donghai Academy, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Ren-Feng Ma
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Ningbo Universities Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research at Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Donghai Academy, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Xiao-Dong Yang
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Ningbo Universities Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research at Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Donghai Academy, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China.
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19
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN. Impacts of exposure to air pollution, radon and climate drivers on the COVID-19 pandemic in Bucharest, Romania: A time series study. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 212:113437. [PMID: 35594963 PMCID: PMC9113773 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2022] [Revised: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
During the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic disease, like several countries, Romania experienced a multiwaves pattern over more than two years. The spreading pattern of SARS-CoV-2 pathogens in the Bucharest, capital of Romania is a multi-factorial process involving among other factors outdoor environmental variables and viral inactivation. Through descriptive statistics and cross-correlation analysis applied to daily time series of observational and geospatial data, this study aims to evaluate the synergy of COVID-19 incidence and lethality with air pollution and radon under different climate conditions, which may exacerbate the coronavirus' effect on human health. During the entire analyzed period 1 January 2020-21 December 2021, for each of the four COVID-19 waves were recorded different anomalous anticyclonic synoptic meteorological patterns in the mid-troposphere, and favorable stability conditions during fall-early winter seasons for COVID-19 disease fast-spreading, mostly during the second, and the fourth waves. As the temporal pattern of airborne SARS-CoV-2 and its mutagen variants is affected by seasonal variability of the main air pollutants and climate parameters, this paper found: 1) the daily outdoor exposures to air pollutants (particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10, nitrogen dioxide-NO2, sulfur dioxide-SO2, carbon monoxide-CO) and radon - 222Rn, are directly correlated with the daily COVID-19 incidence and mortality, and may contribute to the spread and the severity of the pandemic; 2) the daily ground ozone-O3 levels, air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance are anticorrelated with the daily new COVID-19 incidence and deaths, averageingful for spring-summer periods. Outdoor exposure to ambient air pollution associated with radon is a non-negligible driver of COVID-19 transmission in large metropolitan areas, and climate variables are risk factors in spreading the viral infection. The findings of this study provide useful information for public health authorities and decision-makers to develop future pandemic diseases strategies in high polluted metropolitan environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania.
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania
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20
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Hoogeveen MJ, Kroes ACM, Hoogeveen EK. Environmental factors and mobility predict COVID-19 seasonality in the Netherlands. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 211:113030. [PMID: 35257688 PMCID: PMC8895708 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2021] [Revised: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 02/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We recently showed that seasonal patterns of COVID-19 incidence and Influenza-Like Illnesses incidence are highly similar, in a country in the temperate climate zone, such as the Netherlands. We hypothesize that in The Netherlands the same environmental factors and mobility trends that are associated with the seasonality of flu-like illnesses are predictors of COVID-19 seasonality as well. METHODS We used meteorological, pollen/hay fever and mobility data from the Netherlands. For the reproduction number of COVID-19 (Rt), we used daily estimates from the Dutch State Institute for Public Health. For all datasets, we selected the overlapping period of COVID-19 and the first allergy season: from February 17, 2020 till September 21, 2020 (n = 218). Backward stepwise multiple linear regression was used to develop an environmental prediction model of the Rt of COVID-19. Next, we studied whether adding mobility trends to an environmental model improved the predictive power. RESULTS Through stepwise backward multiple linear regression four highly significant (p < 0.01) predictive factors are selected in our combined model: temperature, solar radiation, hay fever incidence, and mobility to indoor recreation locations. Our combined model explains 87.5% of the variance of Rt of COVID-19 and has a good and highly significant fit: F(4, 213) = 374.2, p < 0.00001. This model had a better overall predictive performance than a solely environmental model, which explains 77.3% of the variance of Rt (F(4, 213) = 181.3, p < 0.00001). CONCLUSIONS We conclude that the combined mobility and environmental model can adequately predict the seasonality of COVID-19 in a country with a temperate climate like the Netherlands. In this model higher solar radiation, higher temperature and hay fever are related to lower COVID-19 reproduction, and higher mobility to indoor recreation locations is related to an increased COVID-19 spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martijn J Hoogeveen
- Department Technical Sciences & Environment, Open University, the Netherlands.
| | - Aloys C M Kroes
- Department of Medical Microbiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Ellen K Hoogeveen
- Department of Internal Medicine, Jeroen Bosch Hospital, Den Bosch, the Netherlands
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21
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Mehmood K, Bao Y, Mushtaq S, Saifullah, Khan MA, Siddique N, Bilal M, Heng Z, Huan L, Tariq M, Ahmad S. Perspectives from remote sensing to investigate the COVID-19 pandemic: A future-oriented approach. Front Public Health 2022; 10:938811. [PMID: 35958871 PMCID: PMC9360797 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.938811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 06/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
As scientific technology and space science progress, remote sensing has emerged as an innovative solution to ease the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. To examine the research characteristics and growth trends in using remote sensing for monitoring and managing the COVID-19 research, a bibliometric analysis was conducted on the scientific documents appearing in the Scopus database. A total of 1,509 documents on this study topic were indexed between 2020 and 2022, covering 165 countries, 577 journals, 5239 institutions, and 8,616 authors. The studies related to remote sensing and COVID-19 have a significant increase of 30% with 464 articles. The United States (429 articles, 28.42% of the global output), China (295 articles, 19.54% of the global output), and the United Kingdom (174 articles, 11.53%) appeared as the top three most contributions to the literature related to remote sensing and COVID-19 research. Sustainability, Science of the Total Environment, and International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health were the three most productive journals in this research field. The utmost predominant themes were COVID-19, remote sensing, spatial analysis, coronavirus, lockdown, and air pollution. The expansion of these topics appears to be associated with cross-sectional research on remote sensing, evidence-based tools, satellite mapping, and geographic information systems (GIS). Global pandemic risks will be monitored and managed much more effectively in the coming years with the use of remote sensing technology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khalid Mehmood
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/CMA Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
- School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | - Yansong Bao
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/CMA Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
- School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
| | | | - Saifullah
- Institute of Soil and Environmental Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Ajmal Khan
- Deanship of Library Affairs Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nadeem Siddique
- Gad and Birgit Rausing Library, Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Bilal
- School of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | - Zhang Heng
- Shanghai Satellite Engineering Institute, Shanghai, China
| | - Li Huan
- China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center, Mianyang, China
| | - Muhammad Tariq
- Department of Livestock Management, University of Agriculture, Sub-campus Toba Tek Singh, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Sibtain Ahmad
- Faculty of Animal Husbandry, Institute of Animal and Dairy Sciences, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
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22
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Biasin M, Strizzi S, Bianco A, Macchi A, Utyro O, Pareschi G, Loffreda A, Cavalleri A, Lualdi M, Trabattoni D, Tacchetti C, Mazza D, Clerici M. UV and violet light can Neutralize SARS-CoV-2 Infectivity. JOURNAL OF PHOTOCHEMISTRY AND PHOTOBIOLOGY 2022; 10:100107. [PMID: 35036965 PMCID: PMC8741330 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpap.2021.100107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Revised: 12/31/2021] [Accepted: 12/31/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
We performed an in-depth analysis of the virucidal effect of discrete wavelengths: UV-C (278 nm), UV-B (308 nm), UV-A (366 nm) and violet (405 nm) on SARS-CoV-2. By using a highly infectious titer of SARS-CoV-2 we observed that the violet light-dose resulting in a 2-log viral inactivation is only 104 times less efficient than UV-C light. Moreover, by qPCR (quantitative Polymerase chain reaction) and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) approach we verified that the viral titer typically found in the sputum of COVID-19 patients can be completely inactivated by the long UV-wavelengths corresponding to UV-A and UV-B solar irradiation. The comparison of the UV action spectrum on SARS-CoV-2 to previous results obtained on other pathogens suggests that RNA viruses might be particularly sensitive to long UV wavelengths. Our data extend previous results showing that SARS-CoV-2 is highly susceptible to UV light and offer an explanation to the reduced incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection seen in the summer season.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mara Biasin
- Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Sergio Strizzi
- Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Andrea Bianco
- Italian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Brera Astronomical Observatory, Merate, Italy
| | - Alberto Macchi
- Italian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Brera Astronomical Observatory, Merate, Italy
| | - Olga Utyro
- Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Giovanni Pareschi
- Italian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Brera Astronomical Observatory, Merate, Italy
| | - Alessia Loffreda
- Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy
| | - Adalberto Cavalleri
- Epidemiology and Prevention Unit, IRCCS Foundation, Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy
| | - Manuela Lualdi
- Department of Imaging Diagnostic and Radioterapy, IRCCS Foundation, Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy
| | - Daria Trabattoni
- Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Carlo Tacchetti
- Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy
| | - Davide Mazza
- Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy
| | - Mario Clerici
- Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
- Don C. Gnocchi Foundation, IRCCS Foundation, Milan, Italy
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23
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Yin C, Zhao W, Pereira P. Meteorological factors' effects on COVID-19 show seasonality and spatiality in Brazil. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 208:112690. [PMID: 34999027 PMCID: PMC8734082 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2021] [Revised: 01/04/2022] [Accepted: 01/04/2022] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The meteorological conditions may affect COVID-19 transmission. However, the roles of seasonality and macro-climate are still contentious due to the limited time series for early-stage studies. We studied meteorological factors' effects on COVID-19 transmission in Brazil from February 25 to November 15, 2020. We aimed to explore whether this impact showed seasonal characteristics and spatial variations related to the macro-climate. We applied two-way fixed-effect models to identify the effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission and used spatial analysis to explore their spatial-temporal characteristics with a relatively long-time span. The results showed that cold, dry and windless conditions aggravated COVID-19 transmission. The daily average temperature, humidity, and wind speed negatively affected the daily new cases. Humidity and temperature played a dominant role in this process. For the time series, the influences of meteorological conditions on COVID-19 had a periodic fluctuation of 3-4 months (in line with the seasons in Brazil). The turning points of this fluctuation occurred at the turn of seasons. Spatially, the negative effects of temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission clustered in the northeastern and central parts of Brazil. This is consistent with the range of arid climate types. Overall, the seasonality and similar climate types should be considered to estimate the spatial-temporal COVID-19 patterns. Winter is a critical time to be alert for COVID-19, especially in the northern part of Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caichun Yin
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
| | - Wenwu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Institute of Land Surface System and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
| | - Paulo Pereira
- Environmental Management Center, Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius, 08303, Lithuania
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24
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Coccia M. COVID-19 pandemic over 2020 (withlockdowns) and 2021 (with vaccinations): similar effects for seasonality and environmental factors. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 208:112711. [PMID: 35033552 PMCID: PMC8757643 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2021] [Revised: 01/04/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2022] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
How is the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2020 with an health policy of full lockdowns and in 2021 with a vast campaign of vaccinations? The present study confronts this question here by developing a comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic between April-September 2020 (based upon strong control measures) and April-September 2021 (focused on health policy of vaccinations) in Italy, which was one of the first European countries to experience in 2020 high numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths and in 2021 Italy has a high share of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (>89% of population aged over 12 years in January 2022). Results suggest that over the period under study, the arithmetic mean of confirmed cases, hospitalizations of people and admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in 2020 and 2021 is significantly equal (p-value<0.01), except fatality rate. Results suggest in December 2021 lower hospitalizations, admissions to ICUs, and fatality rate of COVID-19 than December 2020, though confirmed cases and mortality rates are in 2021 higher than 2020, and likely converging trends in the first quarter of 2022. These findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic is driven by seasonality and environmental factors that reduce the negative effects in summer period, regardless control measures and/or vaccination campaigns. These findings here can be of benefit to design health policy responses of crisis management considering the growth of COVID-19 pandemic in winter months having reduced temperatures and low solar radiations ( COVID-19 has a behaviour of influenza-like illness). Hence, findings here suggest that strategies of prevention and control of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19 should be set up in summer months and fully implemented during low-solar-irradiation periods (autumn and winter period).
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Affiliation(s)
- Mario Coccia
- CNR, National Research Council of Italy - Via Real Collegio, n. 30 (Collegio Carlo Alberto), 10024, Moncalieri (TO), Italy.
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25
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Space—Time Surveillance of COVID-19 Seasonal Clusters: A Case of Sweden. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi11050307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
While COVID-19 is a global pandemic, different countries have experienced different morbidity and mortality patterns. We employ retrospective and prospective space–time permutation analysis on COVID-19 positive records across different municipalities in Sweden from March 2020 to February 2021, using data provided by the Swedish Public Health Agency. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing nationwide COVID-19 space–time clustering in Sweden, on a season-to-season basis. Our results show that different municipalities within Sweden experienced varying extents of season-dependent COVID-19 clustering in both the spatial and temporal dimensions. The reasons for the observed differences could be related to the differences in the earlier exposures to the virus, the strictness of the social restrictions, testing capabilities and preparedness. By profiling COVID-19 space–time clusters before the introduction of vaccines, this study contributes to public health efforts aimed at containing the virus by providing plausible evidence in evaluating which epidemiologic interventions in the different regions could have worked and what could have not worked.
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26
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Ebert K, Houts R, Noce S. Lower COVID-19 Incidence in Low-Continentality West-Coast Areas of Europe. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2021GH000568. [PMID: 35516911 PMCID: PMC9066745 DOI: 10.1029/2021gh000568] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2021] [Revised: 04/08/2022] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
In March 2020, the first known cases of COVID-19 occurred in Europe. Subsequently, the pandemic developed a seasonal pattern. The incidence of COVID-19 comprises spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variations, with lower and/or shorter peaks resulting in lower total incidence and higher and/or longer peaks resulting higher total incidence. The reason behind this phenomena is still unclear. Unraveling factors that explain why certain places have higher versus lower total COVID-19 incidence can help health decision makers understand and plan for future waves of the pandemic. We test whether differences in the total incidence of COVID-19 within five European countries (Norway, Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Spain), correlate with two environmental factors: the Köppen-Geiger climate zones and the Continentality Index, while statistically controlling for crowding. Our results show that during the first 16 months of the pandemic (March 2020 to July 2021), climate zones with larger annual differences in temperature and annually distributed precipitation show a higher total incidence than climate zones with smaller differences in temperature and dry seasons. This coincides with lower continentality values. Total incidence increases with continentality, up to a Continentality Index value of 19, where a peak is reached in the semicontinental zone. Low continentality (high oceanic influence) appears to be a strong suppressing factor for COVID-19 spread. The incidence in our study area is lowest at open low continentality west coast areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karin Ebert
- Natural Sciences, Technology and Environmental StudiesSödertörn UniversityStockholmSweden
| | - Renate Houts
- Department of Psychology and NeuroscienceDuke UniversityDurhamNCUSA
| | - Sergio Noce
- Fondazione Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)Division on Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES)ViterboItaly
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27
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Jarumaneeroj P, Dusadeerungsikul PO, Chotivanich T, Nopsopon T, Pongpirul K. An epidemiology-based model for the operational allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: A case study of Thailand. COMPUTERS & INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING 2022; 167:108031. [PMID: 35228772 PMCID: PMC8865938 DOI: 10.1016/j.cie.2022.108031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2021] [Revised: 02/01/2022] [Accepted: 02/18/2022] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
This paper addresses a framework for the operational allocation and administration of COVID-19 vaccines in Thailand, based on both COVID-19 transmission dynamics and other vital operational restrictions that might affect the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the early stage of vaccine rollout. In this framework, the SIQRV model is first developed and later combined with the COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Problem (CVAP) to determine the optimal allocation/administration strategies that minimize total weighted strain on the whole healthcare system. According to Thailand's second pandemic wave data (17th January 2021, to 15th February 2021), we find that the epicenter-based strategy is surprisingly the worst allocation strategy, due largely to the negligence of provincial demographics, vaccine efficacy, and overall transmission dynamics that lead to higher number of infectious individuals. We also find that early vaccination seems to significantly contribute to the reduction in the number of infectious individuals, whose effects tend to increase with more vaccine supply. With these insights, healthcare policy-makers should therefore focus not only on the procurement of COVID-19 vaccines at strategic levels but also on the allocation and administration of such vaccines at operational levels for the best of their limited vaccine supply.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pisit Jarumaneeroj
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
- Regional Centre for Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
| | | | - Tharin Chotivanich
- Department of Industrial Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
| | - Tanawin Nopsopon
- Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
| | - Krit Pongpirul
- Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
- Bumrungrad International Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA
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28
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D'Amico F, Marmiere M, Righetti B, Scquizzato T, Zangrillo A, Puglisi R, Landoni G. COVID-19 seasonality in temperate countries. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 206:112614. [PMID: 34953888 PMCID: PMC8692239 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112614] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2021] [Revised: 12/19/2021] [Accepted: 12/20/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION While the beneficial effect of vaccination, restrictive measures, and social distancing in reducing mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 is intuitive and taken for granted, seasonality (predictable fluctuation or pattern that recurs or repeats over a one-year period) is still poorly understood and insufficiently taken into consideration. We aimed to examine SARS-CoV-2 seasonality in countries with temperate climate. METHODS We identified countries with temperate climate and extracted average country temperature data from the National Center for Environmental information and from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal. We obtained mortality and vaccination rates from an open access database. We used the stringency index derived from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker to quantify restriction policies. We used Spearman's and rank-correlation non-parametric test coefficients to investigate the association between COVID-19 mortality and temperature values. We employed multivariate regression models to analyze how containment measures, vaccinations, and monthly temperatures affected COVID-19 mortality rates. RESULTS The time series for daily deaths per million inhabitants and average monthly temperatures of European countries and US states with a temperate climate had a negative correlation (p < 0.0001 for all countries, 0.40 < R < 0.86). When running multivariate regression models with country fixed effects, we noted that mortality rates were significantly lower when temperature were higher. Interestingly, when adding an interaction term between monthly temperatures and vaccination rates, we found that as monthly temperatures dropped, the effect of the vaccination campaign on mortality was larger than at higher temperatures. DISCUSSION Deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 decreased during the summer period in temperate countries. We found that the effect of vaccination rates on mortality was stronger when temperatures were lower. Stakeholders should consider seasonality in managing SARS-CoV-2 and future pandemics to minimize mortality, limit the pressure on hospitals and intensive care units while maintaining economic and social activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Filippo D'Amico
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy
| | - Marilena Marmiere
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy
| | - Beatrice Righetti
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy
| | - Tommaso Scquizzato
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy; Faculty of Medicine, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Alberto Zangrillo
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy; Faculty of Medicine, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy
| | - Riccardo Puglisi
- Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Degli Studi Di Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Giovanni Landoni
- Department of Anesthesia and Intensive Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy; Faculty of Medicine, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
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29
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Coccia M. Optimal levels of vaccination to reduce COVID-19 infected individuals and deaths: A global analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 204:112314. [PMID: 34736923 PMCID: PMC8560189 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 49.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Revised: 10/26/2021] [Accepted: 10/28/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a pandemic threat that is generating a constant state of alert in manifold countries. One of the strategies of defense against infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19) is the vaccinations that decrease the numbers of infected individuals and deaths. In this context, the optimal level of vaccination for COVID-19 is a basic point to control this pandemic crisis in society. The study here,-using data of doses of vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants, confirmed cases and case fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries (N=192) from March to May 2021,- clarifies the optimal levels of vaccination for reducing the number of infected individuals and, consequently, the numbers of deaths at global level. Findings reveal that the average level of administering about 80 doses of vaccines per 100 inhabitants between countries can sustain a reduction of confirmed cases and number of deaths. In addition, results suggest that an intensive vaccination campaign in the initial phase of pandemic wave leads to a lower optimal level of doses administered per 100 inhabitants (roughly 47 doses of vaccines administered) for reducing infected individuals; however, the growth of pandemic wave (in May, 2021) moves up the optimal level of vaccines to about 90 doses for reducing the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. All these results here could aid policymakers to prepare optimal strategies directed to a rapid COVID-19 vaccination rollout, before the takeoff of pandemic wave, to lessen negative effects of pandemic crisis on environment and socioeconomic systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mario Coccia
- CNR -- National Research Council of Italy, Collegio Carlo Alberto, Via Real Collegio, n. 30, 10024, Moncalieri, TO, Italy.
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30
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Czypionka T, Iftekhar EN, Prainsack B, Priesemann V, Bauer S, Calero Valdez A, Cuschieri S, Glaab E, Grill E, Krutzinna J, Lionis C, Machado H, Martins C, Pavlakis GN, Perc M, Petelos E, Pickersgill M, Skupin A, Schernhammer E, Szczurek E, Tsiodras S, Willeit P, Wilmes P. The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2022; 13:100294. [PMID: 35005678 PMCID: PMC8720492 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure 'test-trace-isolate-support' becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Czypionka
- Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria, and London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - Emil N. Iftekhar
- Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | - Viola Priesemann
- Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Simon Bauer
- Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | - Sarah Cuschieri
- Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Malta, Msida, Malta
| | - Enrico Glaab
- University of Luxembourg, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
| | - Eva Grill
- Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich, Germany
| | | | - Christos Lionis
- Clinic of Social and Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece and Institute of Health and Medicine, University of Linkoping, Linkoping, Sweden
| | | | - Carlos Martins
- Department of Community Medicine, Health Information and Decision Sciences of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Matjaž Perc
- University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia, and Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Elena Petelos
- Clinic of Social and Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece and Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | | | | | | | | | - Sotirios Tsiodras
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Medical School, Athens, Greece
| | - Peter Willeit
- Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Paul Wilmes
- University of Luxembourg, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
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31
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Stidsen JV, Green A, Rosengaard L, Højlund K. Risk of severe COVID-19 infection in persons with diabetes during the first and second waves in Denmark: A nationwide cohort study. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2022; 13:1025699. [PMID: 36303877 PMCID: PMC9592709 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2022.1025699] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) increases risk of hospitalization and death in diabetes and diabetes-related conditions. We examined the temporal trends in COVID-19-related hospitalization and mortality in the total Danish population by diabetes and diabetes-related conditions in the two first waves of COVID-19 in Denmark. MATERIALS AND METHODS We identified all persons with diabetes in the whole Danish population using national registries. COVID-19-related risks of hospitalization and death were assessed using Cox regression analysis in wave 1 (1 March-31 August 2020) and wave 2 (1 September 2020-28 February 2021) of the pandemic for persons with (n=321,933) and without diabetes (n=5,479,755). Analyses were stratified according to status of hypertension, obesity, cardiovascular and microvascular disease. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 hospitalization increased from wave 1 to wave 2 in both persons without (from 4 to 10 in 10,000) and with diabetes (from 16 to 54 per 10,000). The relative risk of hospitalization, however, increased more in patients with diabetes compared to persons without (age-, sex- and co-morbidity-adjusted HR [aHR] 1.40 (95% CI 1.27, 1.55) versus 1.76 (1.65, 1.87), p<0.001 for interaction with wave). The mortality rate, according to the whole population, increased similarly in persons without and with diabetes from wave 1 to wave 2 (from 0.63 to 1.5 versus from 4.3 to 10 in 10,000; aHR 1.65; 1.34, 2.03 and 1.64; 1.43, 1.88). However, when mortality was restricted to the hospitalized population, the crude mortality fell from 26.8% to 19.6% in persons with diabetes, while only a minor decrease was seen in persons without diabetes (from 16.7% to 15.5%). CONCLUSION The risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization increased more in persons with than without diabetes from wave 1 to wave 2 of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Danish population. However, mortality according to the whole population did not change, due to reduced mortality among hospitalized persons with diabetes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacob V. Stidsen
- Steno Diabetes Center Odense, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
- *Correspondence: Jacob V. Stidsen,
| | - Anders Green
- Steno Diabetes Center Odense, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Louise Rosengaard
- Open Patient data Explorative Network, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Kurt Højlund
- Steno Diabetes Center Odense, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
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Changulani R, Shukla D, Bhadoria S, Bansal M. Evolution of the pandemic: Analysis of demographic characteristics of COVID-19-infected patients during its two waves in Gwalior district of central India. J Family Med Prim Care 2022; 11:1314-1321. [PMID: 35516675 PMCID: PMC9067213 DOI: 10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_1189_21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Revised: 10/13/2021] [Accepted: 10/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Materials and Methods: Results: Conclusion:
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN, Baschir LA, Tenciu DV. Assessing the impact of air pollution and climate seasonality on COVID-19 multiwaves in Madrid, Spain. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 203:111849. [PMID: 34370990 PMCID: PMC8343379 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Revised: 08/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
While the COVID-19 pandemic is still in progress, being under the fifth COVID-19 wave in Madrid, over more than one year, Spain experienced a four wave pattern. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 pathogens in Madrid metropolitan region was investigated from an urban context associated with seasonal variability of climate and air pollution drivers. Based on descriptive statistics and regression methods of in-situ and geospatial daily time series data, this study provides a comparative analysis between COVID-19 waves incidence and mortality cases in Madrid under different air quality and climate conditions. During analyzed period 1 January 2020-1 July 2021, for each of the four COVID-19 waves in Madrid were recorded anomalous anticyclonic synoptic meteorological patterns in the mid-troposphere and favorable stability conditions for COVID-19 disease fast spreading. As airborne microbial temporal pattern is most affected by seasonal changes, this paper found: 1) a significant negative correlation of air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance with daily new COVID-19 incidence and deaths; 2) a similar mutual seasonality with climate variables of the first and the fourth COVID-waves from spring seasons of 2020 and 2021 years. Such information may help the health decision makers and public plan for the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania.
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Laurentiu A Baschir
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Daniel V Tenciu
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
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Wei H, Liu S, Liu Y, Liu B, Gong X. The impact of meteorological factors on COVID‐19 of California and its lag effect. METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 2022; 29:e2045. [PMCID: PMC9088500 DOI: 10.1002/met.2045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
As of March 30, 2021, COVID‐19 has been circulating globally for more than 1 year, posing a huge threat to the safety of human life and property. Understanding the relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID‐19 can provide positive help for the prevention and control of the global epidemic. We take California as the research object, use Geodetector to screen out the meteorological factors with the strongest explanatory power for the epidemic, then use partial correlation analysis to study the correlation between the two, and finally construct a distributed lag non‐linear model (DLNM) to further explore the relationship between the dominant factor and COVID‐19 and its lag effect. It turns out that temperature has a greater impact on COVID‐19 and the two have a significant negative correlation. When the temperature is lower than 50°F, it has a significant promotion effect on the epidemic, and the relative risk (RR) increases approximately exponentially as the temperature decreases. The delayed effect of the cold effect on the epidemic can be as long as 15 days. This study has shown that more attention should be paid to epidemic prevention and control when the temperature is low, and the delay effect of temperature on the spread of the epidemic cannot be ignored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haitao Wei
- The School of the Geo‐Science & TechnologyZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
- Joint Laboratory of Eco‐MeteorologyZhengzhou University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
| | - Shihao Liu
- The School of the Geo‐Science & TechnologyZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
- Joint Laboratory of Eco‐MeteorologyZhengzhou University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
| | - Yan Liu
- The School of the Geo‐Science & TechnologyZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
- Joint Laboratory of Eco‐MeteorologyZhengzhou University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
| | - Bang Liu
- The School of the Geo‐Science & TechnologyZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
- Joint Laboratory of Eco‐MeteorologyZhengzhou University, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouChina
| | - Xiyun Gong
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouHenanChina
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THE PROFILE OF SPECIFIC ANTIBODIES TO SARS-COV-2 IN RESIDENTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS OF UKRAINE. WORLD OF MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2022. [DOI: 10.26724/2079-8334-2022-1-79-11-15] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Icard P, Simula L, Rei J, Fournel L, De Pauw V, Alifano M. On the footsteps of Hippocrates, Sanctorius and Harvey to better understand the influence of cold on the occurrence of COVID-19 in European countries in 2020. Biochimie 2021; 191:164-171. [PMID: 34555456 PMCID: PMC8458079 DOI: 10.1016/j.biochi.2021.09.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2021] [Revised: 09/16/2021] [Accepted: 09/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by a pattern of consecutive declines and regrowth in European countries in 2020. After being partially regressed during the summer, the reappearance of the infection during fall 2020 in many temperate countries strongly suggests that temperature and cold may play a role in influencing the infectivity and virulence of SARS-CoV-2. While promoting medicine as an art, Hippocrates interpreted with logical reasoning the occurrence of diseases such as epidemics, as a consequence of environmental factors, in particular climatic variations. During the Renaissance, Sanctorius was one of the first to perform quantitative measurements, and Harvey discovered the circulation of blood by performing experimental procedures in animals. We think that a reasoning mixing various observations, measurements and experiments is fundamental to understand how cold increases infectivity and virulence of SARS-CoV-2. By this review, we provide evidence linking cold, angiotensin-II, vasoconstriction, hypoxia and aerobic glycolysis (the Warburg effect) to explain how cold affects the epidemiology of COVID-19. Also, a low humidity increases virus transmissibility, while a warm atmosphere, a moderate airway humidity, and the production of vasodilator angiotensin 1-7 by ACE2 are less favorable to the virus entry and/or its development. The meteorological and environmental parameters impacting COVID-19 pandemic should be reintegrated into a whole perspective by taking into account the different factors influencing transmissibility, infectivity and virulence of SARS-CoV-2. To understand the modern enigma represented by COVID-19, an interdisciplinary approach is surely essential.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philippe Icard
- Université Caen Normandie, Medical School, CHU de Caen, Caen, F-14000, France; INSERM U1086, Interdisciplinary Research Unit for Cancer Prevention and Treatment, CLCC François Baclesse, Caen University, France; Service de Chirurgie Thoracique, Hôpital Cochin, Paris University Hospitals, APHP, France.
| | - Luca Simula
- INSERM U1016, CNRS UMR8104, Department of Infection, Immunity and Inflammation, Cochin Institute, Paris University, Paris, 75014, France
| | - Joana Rei
- Service de Chirurgie Thoracique, Hôpital Cochin, Paris University Hospitals, APHP, France
| | - Ludovic Fournel
- Service de Chirurgie Thoracique, Hôpital Cochin, Paris University Hospitals, APHP, France; INSERM U1124, Cellular Homeostasis and Cancer, Paris University, Paris, France
| | - Vincent De Pauw
- Service de Chirurgie Thoracique, Hôpital Cochin, Paris University Hospitals, APHP, France
| | - Marco Alifano
- Service de Chirurgie Thoracique, Hôpital Cochin, Paris University Hospitals, APHP, France; INSERM U1138, Integrative Cancer Immunology, Paris, France
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Stacevičienė I, Burokienė S, Steponavičienė A, Vaičiūnienė D, Puronaitė R, Jankauskienė A. Screening for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) at the Pediatric Emergency Department During Different Pandemic Phases. Front Pediatr 2021; 9:749641. [PMID: 34805046 PMCID: PMC8603807 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2021.749641] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 10/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The wide spectrum of COVID-19 symptoms complicates the selection of target groups for screening. We aimed to compare data of children screened for COVID-19 at the pediatric emergency department in Vilnius between different phases throughout 1 year (Phase I: March-May, 2020; Phase II: June-September, 2020; and Phase III: October, 2020-February, 2021) and to evaluate the possible predictors of the disease. SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests were positive for 2.7% of tested children (248/9,238), significantly higher during the Phase III (5.5%) compared with the Phase I (0.6%, p = 0.000) and Phase II (0.3%, p = 0.000). Infants and teenagers (12-17 years) accounted for a larger proportion of COVID-19 patients (24.6 and 26.2%, respectively) compared to other age groups: 1-2 years (18.9%), 3-6 years (14.9%), and 7-11 years (15.3%). There were more COVID-19 cases among children with a known SARS-CoV-2 exposure compared to those who did not declare any contact (18.2 vs. 1.1%, p = 0000). When symptoms were adjusted for age, gender and known exposure to SARS-CoV-2, we found that fever (OR 2.66; 95% CI 1.89-3.81), pharyngitis (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.01-1.80), headache (OR 1.81; 95% CI 1.09-2.90), and anosmia/ageusia (OR 6.47; 95% CI 1.61-22.47) were the most significant predictors. Conclusion: Although high numbers of testing were maintained throughout the year, the positive test results were significantly higher during the Phase III. Age (<1 year, 12-17 years), a history of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and some symptoms, such as fever, pharyngitis, headache and anosmia/ageusia could aid in targeting groups for screening for COVID-19 in children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Indrė Stacevičienė
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
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Nasker SS, Nanda A, Ramadass B, Nayak S. Epidemiological Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the State of Odisha, India: A Yearlong Exploratory Data Analysis. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:11203. [PMID: 34769722 PMCID: PMC8582922 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182111203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2021] [Revised: 10/19/2021] [Accepted: 10/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
COVID-19 remains a matter of global public health concern. Previous research suggested the association between local environmental factors and viral transmission. We present a multivariate observational analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the state of Odisha, India, hinting at a seasonal activity. We aim to investigate the demographic characteristics of COVID-19 in the Indian state of Odisha for two specific timelines in 2020 and 2021. For a comparative outlook, we chose similar datasets from the state of New York, USA. Further, we present a critical analysis pertaining to the effects of environmental factors and the emergence of variants on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and persistence. We assessed the datasets for confirmed cases, death, age, and gender for 29 February 2020 to 31 May 2020, and 1 March 2021 to 31 May 2021. We determined the case fatalities, crude death rates, sex ratio, and incidence rates for both states along with monthly average temperature analysis. A yearlong epi-curve analysis was conducted to depict the coronavirus infection spread pattern in the respective states. The Indian state of Odisha reported a massive 436,455 confirmed cases and 875 deaths during the 2021 timeline as compared to a mere 2223 cases and 7 deaths during the 2020 timeline. We further discuss the demographic and temperature association of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during early 2020 and additionally comment on the variant-associated massive rise in cases during 2021. Along with the rapid rise of variants, the high population density and population behavior seem to be leading causes for the 2021 pandemic, whereas factors such as age group, gender, and average local temperature were prominent during the 2020 spread. A seasonal occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is also observed from the yearlong epidemiological plot. The recent second wave of COVID-19 is a lesson that emphasizes the significance of continuous epidemiological surveillance to predict the relative risk of viral transmission for a specific region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sourya Subhra Nasker
- School of Biotechnology, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology, Bhubaneswar 751024, Odisha, India; (S.S.N.); (A.N.)
| | - Ananya Nanda
- School of Biotechnology, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology, Bhubaneswar 751024, Odisha, India; (S.S.N.); (A.N.)
| | | | - Sasmita Nayak
- School of Biotechnology, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology, Bhubaneswar 751024, Odisha, India; (S.S.N.); (A.N.)
- Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology, Bhubaneswar 751024, Odisha, India
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Cheng A, Riedel S, Arnaout R, Kirby JE. Verification of the Abbott Alinity m Resp-4-Plex assay for detection of SARS-CoV-2, influenza A/B, and respiratory syncytial virus. Diagn Microbiol Infect Dis 2021; 102:115575. [PMID: 34839127 PMCID: PMC8532379 DOI: 10.1016/j.diagmicrobio.2021.115575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2021] [Revised: 09/20/2021] [Accepted: 10/16/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 symptomology may overlap with other circulating respiratory viruses that may also cause severe disease and for which there are specific and potentially life-saving treatments. The Abbott Alinity m Resp-4-Plex assay is a multiplex PCR assay that simultaneously detects and differentiates infection with SARS-CoV-2, influenza A, influenza B, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). We characterized its accuracy, precision, and analytical sensitivity. All were found to be robust for measures examined. In the context of sample-to-answer, near random access automation on the Alinity m platform, we believe that the Resp-4-Plex assay offers significant utility in addressing the current needs of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and future needs during anticipated endemic circulation of SARS-CoV-2 with other respiratory viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annie Cheng
- Department of Pathology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Stefan Riedel
- Department of Pathology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ramy Arnaout
- Department of Pathology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Clinical Informatics, Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - James E Kirby
- Department of Pathology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
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Núñez-Delgado A, Bontempi E, Coccia M, Kumar M, Farkas K, Domingo JL. SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogenic microorganisms in the environment. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 201:111606. [PMID: 34181924 PMCID: PMC8459334 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
The title of the Virtual Special Issue (VSI) "SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogenic microorganisms in the environment", clearly indicates a main focus not only on the virus causing the current pandemic, but also on other pathogenic microorganisms and their spatial and temporal dynamics in environmental compartments. Overall, the VSI has received more than 100 submissions relating to most of the possible fields connected to the pandemic, many of them of high scientific value. A rigorous peer-reviewing process has been carried out, with a panel of experts making a great work to evaluate that important number of submissions. As a result, those manuscripts reaching the highest scientific standards were selected for publication. We think that the papers included constitute a set of high-quality contributions, which should help to improve the overall scientific perspective regarding this crucial issue. In this piece, the Editors comment some issues on the papers accepted for publication, and include additional reflections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Avelino Núñez-Delgado
- Dept. Soil Sci. and Agric. Chem., Univ. Santiago de Compostela, Engineering Polytech. School, Campus Univ. S/n, 27002, Lugo, Spain.
| | - Elza Bontempi
- INSTM and University of Brescia, Via Branze 38, 25123, Brescia, Italy
| | - Mario Coccia
- National Research Council of Italy, Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth, Roma, Italy
| | - Manish Kumar
- Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gujarat, 382 355, India
| | - Kata Farkas
- School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Deiniol Rd, Bangor, Gwynedd, UK
| | - José L Domingo
- Laboratory of Toxicology and Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Universitat Rovira I Virgili, Reus, Spain
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Milicevic O, Salom I, Rodic A, Markovic S, Tumbas M, Zigic D, Djordjevic M, Djordjevic M. PM 2.5 as a major predictor of COVID-19 basic reproduction number in the USA. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 201:111526. [PMID: 34174258 PMCID: PMC8223012 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2021] [Revised: 06/05/2021] [Accepted: 06/09/2021] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Many studies have proposed a relationship between COVID-19 transmissibility and ambient pollution levels. However, a major limitation in establishing such associations is to adequately account for complex disease dynamics, influenced by e.g. significant differences in control measures and testing policies. Another difficulty is appropriately controlling the effects of other potentially important factors, due to both their mutual correlations and a limited dataset. To overcome these difficulties, we will here use the basic reproduction number (R0) that we estimate for USA states using non-linear dynamics methods. To account for a large number of predictors (many of which are mutually strongly correlated), combined with a limited dataset, we employ machine-learning methods. Specifically, to reduce dimensionality without complicating the variable interpretation, we employ Principal Component Analysis on subsets of mutually related (and correlated) predictors. Methods that allow feature (predictor) selection, and ranking their importance, are then used, including both linear regressions with regularization and feature selection (Lasso and Elastic Net) and non-parametric methods based on ensembles of weak-learners (Random Forest and Gradient Boost). Through these substantially different approaches, we robustly obtain that PM2.5 is a major predictor of R0 in USA states, with corrections from factors such as other pollutants, prosperity measures, population density, chronic disease levels, and possibly racial composition. As a rough magnitude estimate, we obtain that a relative change in R0, with variations in pollution levels observed in the USA, is typically ~30%, which further underscores the importance of pollution in COVID-19 transmissibility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ognjen Milicevic
- Department for Medical Statistics and Informatics, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Igor Salom
- Institute of Physics Belgrade, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Andjela Rodic
- Quantitative Biology Group, Institute of Physiology and Biochemistry, Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Sofija Markovic
- Quantitative Biology Group, Institute of Physiology and Biochemistry, Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Marko Tumbas
- Quantitative Biology Group, Institute of Physiology and Biochemistry, Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Dusan Zigic
- Institute of Physics Belgrade, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Magdalena Djordjevic
- Institute of Physics Belgrade, National Institute of the Republic of Serbia, University of Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Marko Djordjevic
- Quantitative Biology Group, Institute of Physiology and Biochemistry, Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade, Serbia.
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Iftekhar EN, Priesemann V, Balling R, Bauer S, Beutels P, Calero Valdez A, Cuschieri S, Czypionka T, Dumpis U, Glaab E, Grill E, Hanson C, Hotulainen P, Klimek P, Kretzschmar M, Krüger T, Krutzinna J, Low N, Machado H, Martins C, McKee M, Mohr SB, Nassehi A, Perc M, Petelos E, Pickersgill M, Prainsack B, Rocklöv J, Schernhammer E, Staines A, Szczurek E, Tsiodras S, Van Gucht S, Willeit P. A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2021; 8:100185. [PMID: 34345876 PMCID: PMC8321710 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Viola Priesemann
- Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Rudi Balling
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
| | - Simon Bauer
- Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany
| | | | | | | | - Thomas Czypionka
- Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria, and London School of Economics, London, UK
| | - Uga Dumpis
- Pauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
| | - Enrico Glaab
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
| | - Eva Grill
- Ludwig-Maximilians-University München, München, Germany
| | - Claudia Hanson
- Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Pirta Hotulainen
- Minerva Foundation Institute for Medical Research, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Peter Klimek
- Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria, and Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Tyll Krüger
- Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland
| | | | | | - Helena Machado
- Institute for Social Sciences, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal
| | - Carlos Martins
- Department of Community Medicine, Health Information and Decision Sciences of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Martin McKee
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Armin Nassehi
- Ludwig-Maximilians-University München, München, Germany
| | - Matjaž Perc
- University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia, and Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Elena Petelos
- University of Crete, Crete, Greece, and Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Barbara Prainsack
- Department of Political Science, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Peter Willeit
- Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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Kong D, Zheng Y, Hu L, Chen J, Wu H, Teng Z, Zhou Y, Qiu Q, Lu Y, Pan H. Epidemiological and co-infection characteristics of common human coronaviruses in Shanghai, 2015-2020: a retrospective observational study. Emerg Microbes Infect 2021; 10:1660-1668. [PMID: 34350810 PMCID: PMC8381891 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2021.1965498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is a major challenge worldwide. However, the epidemic potential of common human coronaviruses (HCoVs) remains unclear. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological and co-infection characteristics of common HCoVs in individuals with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). This retrospective, observational, multicentre study used data collected from patients admitted to nine sentinel hospitals with ILI and SARI from January 2015 through December 2020 in Shanghai, China. We prospectively tested patients for a total of 22 respiratory pathogens using multi-real-time polymerase chain reaction. Of the 4541 patients tested, 40.37% (1833/4541) tested positive for respiratory pathogens and 3.59% (163/4541) tested positive for common HCoVs. HCoV infection was more common in the non-endemic season for respiratory pathogens (odds ratio: 2.33, 95% confidence interval: 1.64–3.31). HCoV-OC43 (41.72%, 68/163) was the most common type of HCoV detected. The co-infection rate was 31.29% (51/163) among 163 HCoV-positive cases, with HCoV-229E (53.13%, 17/32), the HCoV type that was most frequently associated with co-infection. Respiratory pathogens responsible for co-infections with HCoVs included parainfluenza virus, rhinovirus/enterovirus, influenza A virus, and adenovirus. Furthermore, we identified one patient co-infected with HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-NL63/HKU1. The prevalence of common HCoVs remains low in ILI/SARI cases, in Shanghai. However, the seasonal pattern of HCoVs may be opposite to that of other respiratory pathogens. Moreover, HCoVs are likely to co-exist with specific respiratory pathogens. The potential role of co-infections with HCoVs and other pathogenic microorganisms in infection and pathogenesis of ILI and SARI warrants further study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dechuan Kong
- Department of Acute Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Shanghai Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Yaxu Zheng
- Department of Acute Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Shanghai Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.,Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan School of Public Health, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Linjie Hu
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan School of Public Health, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Jian Chen
- Department of Logistics Support, Shanghai Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Huanyu Wu
- Shanghai Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Zheng Teng
- Institute of Pathogen Examination, Shanghai Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanqiu Zhou
- Institute of Pathogen Examination, Shanghai Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Qi Qiu
- Department of Acute Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Shanghai Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Yihan Lu
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan School of Public Health, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Hao Pan
- Institute of Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Shanghai Municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
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Al-Turaiki I, Almutlaq F, Alrasheed H, Alballa N. Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Time-Series Models for COVID-19 Forecasting in Saudi Arabia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18168660. [PMID: 34444409 PMCID: PMC8393561 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18168660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2021] [Revised: 08/11/2021] [Accepted: 08/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
COVID-19 is a disease-causing coronavirus strain that emerged in December 2019 that led to an ongoing global pandemic. The ability to anticipate the pandemic's path is critical. This is important in order to determine how to combat and track its spread. COVID-19 data is an example of time-series data where several methods can be applied for forecasting. Although various time-series forecasting models are available, it is difficult to draw broad theoretical conclusions regarding their relative merits. This paper presents an empirical evaluation of several time-series models for forecasting COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths in Saudi Arabia. In particular, seven forecasting models were trained using autoregressive integrated moving average, TBATS, exponential smoothing, cubic spline, simple exponential smoothing Holt, and HoltWinters. The models were built using publicly available daily data of COVID-19 during the period of 24 March 2020 to 5 April 2021 reported in Saudi Arabia. The experimental results indicate that the ARIMA model had a smaller prediction error in forecasting confirmed cases, which is consistent with results reported in the literature, while cubic spline showed better predictions for recoveries and deaths. As more data become available, a fluctuation in the forecasting-accuracy metrics was observed, possibly due to abrupt changes in the data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isra Al-Turaiki
- Department of Information Technology, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia;
- Department of Computer Science, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia;
- Correspondence:
| | - Fahad Almutlaq
- Geography Department, College of Arts, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia;
| | - Hend Alrasheed
- Department of Information Technology, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia;
| | - Norah Alballa
- Department of Computer Science, College of Computer and Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia;
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN, Baschir LA, Tenciu DV. Exploring the linkage between seasonality of environmental factors and COVID-19 waves in Madrid, Spain. PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION : TRANSACTIONS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS, PART B 2021; 152:583-600. [PMID: 36285289 PMCID: PMC9584827 DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2021.06.043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2021] [Revised: 06/14/2021] [Accepted: 06/27/2021] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Like several countries, Spain experienced a multi wave pattern of COVID-19 pandemic over more than one year period, between spring 2020 and spring 2021. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 pandemics is a multi-factorial process involving among other factors outdoor environmental variables and viral inactivation.This study aims to quantify the impact of climate and air pollution factors seasonality on incidence and severity of COVID-19 disease waves in Madrid metropolitan region in Spain. We employed descriptive statistics and Spearman rank correlation tests for analysis of daily in-situ and geospatial time-series of air quality and climate data to investigate the associations with COVID-19 incidence and lethality in Madrid under different synoptic meteorological patterns. During the analyzed period (1 January 2020-28 February 2021), with one month before each of three COVID-19 waves were recorded anomalous anticyclonic circulations in the mid-troposphere, with positive anomalies of geopotential heights at 500 mb and favorable stability conditions for SARS-CoV-2 fast diffusion. In addition, the results reveal that air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, ground level ozone have a significant negative relationship with daily new COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths. The findings of this study provide useful information to the public health authorities and policymakers for optimizing interventions during pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Laurentiu A Baschir
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Daniel V Tenciu
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
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Lin CN, Chan KR, Ooi EE, Chiou MT, Hoang M, Hsueh PR, Ooi PT. Animal Coronavirus Diseases: Parallels with COVID-19 in Humans. Viruses 2021; 13:1507. [PMID: 34452372 PMCID: PMC8402828 DOI: 10.3390/v13081507] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2021] [Revised: 07/26/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus in humans, has expanded globally over the past year. COVID-19 remains an important subject of intensive research owing to its huge impact on economic and public health globally. Based on historical archives, the first coronavirus-related disease recorded was possibly animal-related, a case of feline infectious peritonitis described as early as 1912. Despite over a century of documented coronaviruses in animals, the global animal industry still suffers from outbreaks. Knowledge and experience handling animal coronaviruses provide a valuable tool to complement our understanding of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In this review, we present an overview of coronaviruses, clinical signs, COVID-19 in animals, genome organization and recombination, immunopathogenesis, transmission, viral shedding, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention. By drawing parallels between COVID-19 in animals and humans, we provide perspectives on the pathophysiological mechanisms by which coronaviruses cause diseases in both animals and humans, providing a critical basis for the development of effective vaccines and therapeutics against these deadly viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao-Nan Lin
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung 91201, Taiwan;
- Animal Disease Diagnostic Center, College of Veterinary Medicine, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung 91201, Taiwan
| | - Kuan Rong Chan
- Program in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore; (K.R.C.); (E.E.O.)
| | - Eng Eong Ooi
- Program in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore; (K.R.C.); (E.E.O.)
- Viral Research and Experimental Medicine Centre (ViREMiCS), SingHealth Duke-NUS Academic Medical Centre, Singapore 169856, Singapore
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117549, Singapore
| | - Ming-Tang Chiou
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung 91201, Taiwan;
- Animal Disease Diagnostic Center, College of Veterinary Medicine, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung 91201, Taiwan
| | - Minh Hoang
- Department of Anatomy and Histology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi 100000, Vietnam;
| | - Po-Ren Hsueh
- Departments of Laboratory Medicine and Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung 404332, Taiwan
- Departments of Laboratory Medicine and Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei 10051, Taiwan
| | - Peck Toung Ooi
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universiti Putra Malaysia, UPM, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia
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Xin L, Liu J, Zhu Y, Fang Y. Exposure-lag-response associations between weather conditions and ankylosing spondylitis: a time series study. BMC Musculoskelet Disord 2021; 22:641. [PMID: 34311737 PMCID: PMC8314534 DOI: 10.1186/s12891-021-04523-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2021] [Accepted: 07/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) have reported that their pain becomes worse when the local weather changes. However, there is limited evidence verifying the short-term associations between meteorological factors and outpatient visits for patients with AS. Therefore, this study evaluates this possible association. Methods Meteorological data and data on daily AS outpatient visits to a general hospital in Hefei, China, from 2014 to 2019 were collected and analysed. Distributed lag nonlinear models and Poisson regression models were employed to determine the association between weather conditions and outpatient visits; the results were also stratified by gender and age. Results High relative humidity is significantly associated with all patient visits in lag 1 (RR = 1.113, 95% CI 1.021 to 1.213) and lag 7 days (RR = 1.115, 95% CI 1.014 to 1.227). A low relative risk to the nadir is observed in lag 4 days (RR = 0.920, 95% CI 0.862 to 0.983). Male and young patients (< 65 years) are more vulnerable to damp weather, and elderly people (≥ 65 years) are significantly affected by high temperatures in lag 7 days (RR = 3.004, 95% CI 1.201 to 7.510). Conclusions Our findings suggest a potential relationship between exposure to weather conditions and increased risk of AS outpatient visits. These results can aid hospitals in preparing for and managing hospital visits by AS patients when the local weather conditions change. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12891-021-04523-y.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ling Xin
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, 117 Mei Shan Road, Shu Shan District, Hefei, Anhui, 230031, People's Republic of China
| | - Jian Liu
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, 117 Mei Shan Road, Shu Shan District, Hefei, Anhui, 230031, People's Republic of China.
| | - Yongjian Zhu
- School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, 96 Jin Zhai Road, Bao He District, Hefei, Anhui, 230026, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanyan Fang
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, 117 Mei Shan Road, Shu Shan District, Hefei, Anhui, 230031, People's Republic of China
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Romero Starke K, Mauer R, Karskens E, Pretzsch A, Reissig D, Nienhaus A, Seidler AL, Seidler A. The Effect of Ambient Environmental Conditions on COVID-19 Mortality: A Systematic Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18126665. [PMID: 34205714 PMCID: PMC8296503 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18126665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2021] [Revised: 06/18/2021] [Accepted: 06/19/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Weather conditions may have an impact on SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission, as has been shown for seasonal influenza. Virus transmission most likely favors low temperature and low humidity conditions. This systematic review aimed to collect evidence on the impact of temperature and humidity on COVID-19 mortality. This review was registered with PROSPERO (registration no. CRD42020196055). We searched the Pubmed, Embase, and Cochrane COVID-19 databases for observational epidemiological studies. Two independent reviewers screened the title/abstracts and full texts of the studies. Two reviewers also performed data extraction and quality assessment. From 5051 identified studies, 11 were included in the review. Although the results were inconsistent, most studies imply that a decrease in temperature and humidity contributes to an increase in mortality. To establish the association with greater certainty, future studies should consider accurate exposure measurements and important covariates, such as government lockdowns and population density, sufficient lag times, and non-linear associations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karla Romero Starke
- Institute and Policlinic of Occupational and Social Medicine (IPAS), Faculty of Medicine Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden, 01307 Dresden, Germany; (E.K.); (A.P.); (D.R.); (A.S.)
- Institute of Sociology, Faculty of Behavioral and Social Sciences, Chemnitz University of Technology, Thüringer Weg 9, 09126 Chemnitz, Germany
- Correspondence:
| | - René Mauer
- Institute for Medical Informatics and Biometry (IMB), Faculty of Medicine Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität, 01307 Dresden, Germany;
| | - Ethel Karskens
- Institute and Policlinic of Occupational and Social Medicine (IPAS), Faculty of Medicine Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden, 01307 Dresden, Germany; (E.K.); (A.P.); (D.R.); (A.S.)
| | - Anna Pretzsch
- Institute and Policlinic of Occupational and Social Medicine (IPAS), Faculty of Medicine Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden, 01307 Dresden, Germany; (E.K.); (A.P.); (D.R.); (A.S.)
| | - David Reissig
- Institute and Policlinic of Occupational and Social Medicine (IPAS), Faculty of Medicine Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden, 01307 Dresden, Germany; (E.K.); (A.P.); (D.R.); (A.S.)
| | - Albert Nienhaus
- Department of Occupational Medicine, Toxic Substances and Health Research, Institution for Statutory Social Accident Insurance and Prevention in the Health Care and Welfare Services (BGW), 22089 Hamburg, Germany;
- Competence Centre for Epidemiology and Health Services Research for Healthcare Professionals (CVcare), Institute for Health Service Research in Dermatology and Nursing (IVDP), University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), 20251 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Anna Lene Seidler
- NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia;
| | - Andreas Seidler
- Institute and Policlinic of Occupational and Social Medicine (IPAS), Faculty of Medicine Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden, 01307 Dresden, Germany; (E.K.); (A.P.); (D.R.); (A.S.)
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Rosolanka R, Henao-Martinez AF, Pisney L, Franco-Paredes C, Krsak M. COVID-19: a review of current knowledge regarding exposure, quarantine, isolation and other preventive measures. Ther Adv Infect Dis 2021; 8:20499361211032039. [PMID: 34349986 PMCID: PMC8287266 DOI: 10.1177/20499361211032039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2021] [Accepted: 06/23/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Deeper understanding of the spread, morbidity, fatality, and development of immune response associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, is necessary in order to establish an appropriate epidemiological and clinical response. Exposure control represents a key part of the combat against COVID-19, as the effectiveness of current therapeutic options remains partial. Since the preventive measures have not been sufficiently able to slow down this pandemic, in this article we explore some of the pertinent knowledge gaps, while overall looking to effective vaccination strategies as a way out. Early on, such strategies may need to rely on counting the convalescents as protected in order to speed up the immunization of the whole population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert Rosolanka
- Department of Infectology and Travel Medicine, Jessenius Faculty of Medicine in Martin, Comenius University in Bratislava, Kollárova 2, Martin, 036 01, Slovakia
| | | | - Larissa Pisney
- Department of Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Carlos Franco-Paredes
- Department of Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO, USA
- Hospital Infantil de México, Federico Gomez, México City, México
| | - Martin Krsak
- Department of Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO, USA
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