Ignoring competing events in the analysis of survival data may lead to biased results: a nonmathematical illustration of competing risk analysis

Modeling Recovery Housing Retention and Program Outcomes by Justice Involvement among Residents in Virginia, USA: An Observational Study

Living in recovery housing can improve addiction recovery and desistance outcomes. This study examined whether retention in recovery housing and types of discharge outcomes (completed, "neutral," and "negative" outcomes) differed for clients with recent criminal legal system (CLS) involvement. Using data from 101 recovery residences certified by the Virginia Association of Recovery Residences based on 1,978 individuals completing the REC-CAP assessment, competing risk analyses (cumulative incidence function, restricted mean survival time, and restricted mean time lost) followed by the marginalization of effects were implemented to examine program outcomes at final discharge. Residents with recent CLS involvement were more likely to be discharged for positive reasons (successful completion of their goals) and premature/negative reasons (e.g., disciplinary releases) than for neutral reasons. Findings indicate that retention for 6-18 months is essential to establish and maintain positive discharge outcomes, and interventions should be developed to enhance retention in recovery residents with recent justice involvement.

Comparative effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination strategies to prevent invasive pneumococcal disease: a population-based cohort study at the veterans health administration in the United States

OBJECTIVES

Comparative effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23), and their combinations for adults in preventing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has yet to be thoroughly investigated. We aimed to estimate the comparative effectiveness of preventing IPD, using population-based data from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in the United States.

METHODS

We included all patients who were between 65 and 74 years, had established primary care within VHA between 2005 and 2021, and had not received any prior pneumococcal vaccination. We measured time-to-event from cohort enrolment to the onset of IPD, considering death a competing risk event, and used Cox regression models to estimate cause-specific hazards. PCV13 only, PPSV23 only, PCV13 after PPSV23, and PPSV23 after PCV13 were incorporated into models as time-dependent covariates. Patient demographics and comorbidities were also included in the model.

RESULTS

A total of 3 044 067 patients were enrolled in the cohort, with 863 958 deaths (28.4%) and 1731 cases of IPD (0.06%) during the study period. The overall incidence rate of IPD in this population was 5.36 per 100 000 patient-years. A total of 921 070 patients (30.3%) received at least one dose of effective pneumococcal vaccine. In multivariate analysis adjusted for comorbidities, PCV13 alone was not associated with the reduced risk of IPD, whereas PPSV23 had protective association with IPD incidence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59-0.83). When combined, PCV13 followed by PPSV23 had a stronger protective association (aHR, 0.54; [0.36-0.83]) compared with PPSV23 followed by PCV13 (aHR, 0.73; [0.58-0.91]).

DISCUSSION

In this large cohort study at the VHA, the combination of PCV13 and PPSV23, particularly PCV13 followed by PPSV23, was associated with a lower risk of IPD, indicating additional benefits in combined vaccinations with potential importance in vaccination order. Further studies are needed to evaluate the effect of newer pneumococcal vaccines.

Influence of incomplete death information on cumulative risk estimates in US claims data

Administrative claims databases often do not capture date or fact of death, so studies using these data may inappropriately treat death as a censoring event-equivalent to other withdrawal reasons-rather than a competing event. We examined 1-, 3-, and 5-year inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted cumulative risks of a composite cardiovascular outcome among 34 527 initiators of telmisartan (exposure) and ramipril (referent), who were aged ≥55 years, in Optum (United States) claims data from 2003 to 2020. Differences in cumulative risks of the cardiovascular endpoint due to censoring of death (cause-specific), as compared with treating death as a competing event (subdistribution), increased with greater follow-up time and older age, where event and mortality risks were higher. Among ramipril users, 5-year cause-specific and subdistribution cumulative risk estimates per 100, respectively, were 16.4 (95% CI, 15.3-17.5) and 16.2 (95% CI, 15.1-17.3) among ages 55-64 (difference = 0.2) and were 43.2 (95% CI, 41.3-45.2) and 39.7 (95% CI, 37.9-41.4) among ages ≥75 (difference = 3.6). Plasmode simulation results demonstrated the differences in cause-specific versus subdistribution cumulative risks to increase with increasing mortality rate. We suggest researchers consider the cohort's baseline mortality risk when deciding whether real-world data with incomplete death information can be used without concern. This article is part of a Special Collection on Pharmacoepidemiology.

Selection Bias in Reporting of Median Waiting Times in Organ Transplantation

Importance

Median organ waiting times published by transplant organizations may be biased when not appropriately accounting for censoring, death, and competing events. This can lead to overly optimistic waiting times for all transplant programs and, consequently, may deceive patients on the waiting list, transplant physicians, and health care policymakers.

Objective

To apply competing-risk multistate models to calculate probabilities for transplantation and adverse outcomes on the Swiss national transplant waiting list.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The WAIT (Waitlist Analysis in Transplantation) study was a retrospective cohort study of all transplant candidates in Switzerland listed from January 1, 2018, or later and observed until December 31, 2023. Transplant candidates were listed in 1 of the 6 transplant centers (Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, St Gallen, and Zurich) for heart, liver, lungs, kidney, or pancreas and/or islet transplant. A total of 4352 candidates were listed during the study period, of whom 709 (16.3%) were excluded due to living-donor transplant (691 in the kidney program and 18 in the liver program).

Exposure

Waiting for organ transplant.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Time to transplantation, death, or delisting. Competing-risk multistate models were used to analyze time-to-event data from the national organ waiting list with the Aalen-Johansen estimator to compute probabilities for both transplant and adverse outcomes. Results were compared with the sample median among only those undergoing transplant and the Kaplan-Meier method with censoring of competing events.

Results

Data from 3643 transplant candidates (2428 [66.6%] male; median age, 56 [range, 0-79] years) were included in the analysis. The median time to transplantation (MTT) was 0.91 (95% CI, 0.83-1.07) years for heart, 3.10 (95% CI, 2.57-3.77) years for kidney, 1.32 (95% CI, 0.76-1.55) years for liver, 0.80 (95% CI, 0.37-1.12) years for lung, and 1.62 (95% CI, 0.91-2.17) years for pancreas and/or islet programs. Alternative estimation methods introduced bias to varying degrees: the sample median among only persons undergoing transplantation underestimated the waiting time by 38% to 61% and the Kaplan-Meier method by 2% to 12% compared with the MTT.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of transplant candidates in Switzerland, the MTT, the duration at which the transplant probability is 0.50, was used as a measure of average waiting time. Suboptimal methods led to biased and overly optimistic waiting time estimations; thus, applying appropriate competing-risk methods to address censoring and competing events is crucial.

Assessing treatment effects with adjusted restricted mean time lost in observational competing risks data

BACKGROUND

According to long-term follow-up data of malignant tumor patients, assessing treatment effects requires careful consideration of competing risks. The commonly used cause-specific hazard ratio (CHR) and sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) are relative indicators and may present challenges in terms of proportional hazards assumption and clinical interpretation. Recently, the restricted mean time lost (RMTL) has been recommended as a supplementary measure for better clinical interpretation. Moreover, for observational study data in epidemiological and clinical settings, due to the influence of confounding factors, covariate adjustment is crucial for determining the causal effect of treatment.

METHODS

We construct an RMTL estimator after adjusting for covariates based on the inverse probability weighting method, and derive the variance to construct interval estimates based on the large sample properties. We use simulation studies to study the statistical performance of this estimator in various scenarios. In addition, we further consider the changes in treatment effects over time, constructing a dynamic RMTL difference curve and corresponding confidence bands for the curve.

RESULTS

The simulation results demonstrate that the adjusted RMTL estimator exhibits smaller biases compared with unadjusted RMTL and provides robust interval estimates in all scenarios. This method was applied to a real-world cervical cancer patient data, revealing improvements in the prognosis of patients with small cell carcinoma of the cervix. The results showed that the protective effect of surgery was significant only in the first 20 months, but the long-term effect was not obvious. Radiotherapy significantly improved patient outcomes during the follow-up period from 17 to 57 months, while radiotherapy combined with chemotherapy significantly improved patient outcomes throughout the entire period.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose the approach that is easy to interpret and implement for assessing treatment effects in observational competing risk data.

Limited impact of colistin resistance on mortality of intensive care patients with carbapenem-resistant bacteraemia

BACKGROUND

Increasing incidence of carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteraemia (CR-GNB) has triggered increased use of polymyxins, likely fuelling the emergence and spread of colistin resistance.

AIM

To estimate the excess clinical burden of colistin resistance in intensive care patients with CR-GNB.

METHODS

A cohort of patients with CR-GNB during their stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) of a university hospital in Greece over a 4-year period (2020-2023) was constructed. Competing risks survival analysis was performed to estimate the burden associated with colistin resistance.

FINDINGS

Of the 177 ICU patients with CR-GNB, 134 (76%) had colistin-resistant isolates, predominantly Acinetobacter baumannii (79%), identified by broth microdilution. Patients with colistin-resistant infection were similar to those with colistin-susceptible infection with respect to age, sex, APACHE II score, Charlson comorbidity index score, Pitt bacteraemia score, prior surgery and the occurrence of polymicrobial cultures. However, patients in the colistin-resistant group had lower risk of mortality compared with those in the colistin-susceptible group (31% vs 44%, P = 0.004 at 14 days, respectively; 46% vs 56% at 28 days, respectively; P = 0.173). Multi-variable regression analysis confirmed that colistin-resistant CR-GNB was associated with significantly lower risk of inpatient death compared with colistin-susceptible CR-GNB within 14 days [cause-specific hazard ratio (csHR) 0.53, 95% CI 0.28-1.01) and 28 days (csHR 0.55, 95% CI 0.31-0.95) of infection onset.

CONCLUSION

Limited impact of colistin resistance on mortality was demonstrated in a large contemporary cohort of ICU patients with CR-GNB, possibly reflecting the recent shift away from colistin-based treatment regimens.

Association of COVID-19 vaccination with risks of hospitalization due to cardiovascular and other diseases: A study using data from the UK Biobank

OBJECTIVES

To explore whether COVID-19 vaccination protects against hospital admission by preventing infections and severe disease.

METHODS

We leveraged the UK Biobank and studied associations of COVID-19 vaccination (BioNTech-BNT162b2 or Oxford-AstraZeneca-ChAdOx1) with hospitalizations from cardiovascular and other selected diseases (N = 393,544; median follow-up = 54 days among vaccinated individuals). Multivariable Cox, Poisson regression, propensity score matching, and inverse probability treatment weighting analyses were performed. We also performed adjustment using prescription-time distribution matching, and prior event rate ratio.

RESULTS

We observed that COVID-19 vaccination (at least one dose), compared with no vaccination, was associated with reduced short-term risks of hospitalizations from stroke (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.178, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.127-0.250, P = 1.50e-23), venous thromboembolism (HR = 0.426, CI: 0.270-0.673, P = 2.51e-4), dementia (HR = 0.114, CI: 0.060-0.216; P = 2.24e-11), non-COVID-19 pneumonia (HR = 0.108, CI: 0.080-0.145; P = 2.20e-49), coronary artery disease (HR = 0.563, CI: 0.416-0.762; P = 2.05e-4), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR = 0.212, CI: 0.126-0.357; P = 4.92e-9), type 2 diabetes (HR = 0.216, CI: 0.096-0.486, P = 2.12e-4), heart failure (HR = 0.174, CI: 0.118-0.256, P = 1.34e-18), and renal failure (HR = 0.415, CI: 0.255-0.677, P = 4.19e-4), based on standard Cox regression models. Among the previously mentioned results, reduced hospitalizations for stroke, heart failure, non-COVID-19 pneumonia, and dementia were consistently observed across regression, propensity score matching/inverse probability treatment weighting, prescription-time distribution matching, and prior event rate ratio. The results for two-dose vaccination were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, this study provides further support to the safety and benefits of COVID-19 vaccination, and such benefits may extend beyond reduction of infection risk or severity per se. However, causal relationship cannot be concluded and further studies are required.

Cerebral Amyloid Angiopathy-Related Inflammation and Biopsy-Positive Primary Angiitis of the CNS: A Comparative Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cerebral amyloid angiopathy-related inflammation (CAA-RI) and biopsy-positive primary angiitis of the CNS (BP-PACNS) have overlapping clinicoradiologic presentations. It is unknown whether clinical and radiologic features can differentiate CAA-RI from BP-PACNS and whether both diseases have different relapse rates. The objectives of this study were to compare clinicoradiologic presentations and relapse rates in patients with CAA-RI vs BP-PACNS.

METHODS

Patients with CAA-RI and BP-PACNS were enrolled from 2 retrospective multicenter cohorts. Patients with CAA-RI were biopsy-positive or met probable clinicoradiologic criteria. Patients with BP-PACNS had histopathologic confirmation of CNS angiitis, with no secondary etiology. A neuroradiologist read brain MRIs, blinded to the diagnosis of CAA-RI or BP-PACNS. Clinicoradiologic features were compared using univariable logistic regression models. Relapse rates were compared using a univariable Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model, with death as a competing risk.

RESULTS

This study enrolled 104 patients with CAA-RI (mean age 73 years, 48% female sex) and 52 patients with BP-PACNS (mean age 45 years, 48% female sex). Patients with CAA-RI more often had white matter hyperintense lesions meeting the probable CAA-RI criteria (93% vs 51%, p < 0.001), acute subarachnoid hemorrhage (15% vs 2%, p = 0.02), cortical superficial siderosis (27% vs 4%, p < 0.001), ≥1 lobar microbleed (94% vs 26%, p < 0.001), past intracerebral hemorrhage (17% vs 4%, p = 0.04), ≥21 visible centrum semiovale perivascular spaces (34% vs 4%, p < 0.01), and leptomeningeal enhancement (70% vs 27%, p < 0.001). Patients with BP-PACNS more often had headaches (56% vs 31%, p < 0.01), motor deficits (56% vs 36%, p = 0.02), and nonischemic parenchymal gadolinium enhancement (82% vs 16%, p < 0.001). The prevalence of acute ischemic lesions was 18% in CAA-RI and 22% in BP-PACNS (p = 0.57). The features with the highest specificity for CAA-RI were acute subarachnoid hemorrhage (98%), cortical superficial siderosis (96%), past intracerebral hemorrhage (96%), and ≥21 visible centrum semiovale perivascular spaces (96%). The probable CAA-RI criteria had a 71% sensitivity (95% CI 44%-90%) and 91% specificity (95% CI 79%-98%) in differentiating biopsy-positive CAA-RI from BP-PACNS. The rate of relapse in the first 2 years after remission was lower in CAA-RI than in BP-PACNS (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% CI 0.22-0.96, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

Clinicoradiologic features differed between patients with CAA-RI and those with BP-PACNS. Specific markers for CAA-RI were hemorrhagic signs of subarachnoid involvement, past intracerebral hemorrhage, ≥21 visible centrum semiovale perivascular spaces, and the probable CAA-RI criteria. A biopsy remains necessary for diagnosis in some cases of CAA-RI. The rate of relapse in the first 2 years after disease remission was lower in CAA-RI than in BP-PACNS.

Time-varying effect in older patients with early-stage breast cancer: a model considering the competing risks based on a time scale

Background

Patients with early-stage breast cancer may have a higher risk of dying from other diseases, making a competing risks model more appropriate. Considering subdistribution hazard ratio, which is used often, limited to model assumptions and clinical interpretation, we aimed to quantify the effects of prognostic factors by an absolute indicator, the difference in restricted mean time lost (RMTL), which is more intuitive. Additionally, prognostic factors of breast cancer may have dynamic effects (time-varying effects) in long-term follow-up. However, existing competing risks regression models only provide a static view of covariate effects, leading to a distorted assessment of the prognostic factor.

Methods

To address this issue, we proposed a dynamic effect RMTL regression that can explore the between-group cumulative difference in mean life lost over a period of time and obtain the real-time effect by the speed of accumulation, as well as personalized predictions on a time scale.

Results

A simulation validated the accuracy of the coefficient estimates in the proposed regression. Applying this model to an older early-stage breast cancer cohort, it was found that 1) the protective effects of positive estrogen receptor and chemotherapy decreased over time; 2) the protective effect of breast-conserving surgery increased over time; and 3) the deleterious effects of stage T2, stage N2, and histologic grade II cancer increased over time. Moreover, from the view of prediction, the mean C-index in external validation reached 0.78.

Conclusion

Dynamic effect RMTL regression can analyze both dynamic cumulative effects and real-time effects of covariates, providing a more comprehensive prognosis and better prediction when competing risks exist.

A Bayesian Survival Analysis on Long COVID and non Long COVID patients: A Cohort Study Using National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) Data

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, numerous researches and studies have focused on the long-term effects of COVID infection. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) implemented an additional code into the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) for reporting 'Post COVID-19 condition, unspecified (U09.9)' effective on October 1st 2021, representing that Long COVID is a real illness with potential chronic conditions. The National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) provides researchers with abundant electronic health records (EHR) data by aggregating and harmonizing EHR data across different clinical organizations in the United States, making it convenient to build up a survival analysis on Long COVID patients and non Long COVID patients among large amounts of COVID positive patients.

Deleterious impact of trivial to severe interstitial pneumonia and emphysema on mortality and acute exacerbation of interstitial pneumonia in patients with lung cancer: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Interstitial pneumonia and emphysema may complicate patients with lung cancer. However, clinical significance of trivial and mild pulmonary abnormalities remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether trivial and mild interstitial pneumonia and emphysema, in addition to their advanced forms, impact the prognosis and lead to acute exacerbation of interstitial pneumonia (AEIP) in patients with lung cancer.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted at a tertiary hospital and included patients with lung cancer. Computed tomography images were evaluated using the interstitial lung abnormality (ILA) score for interstitial pneumonia, which included no ILA, equivocal ILA, ILA, interstitial lung disease (ILD), and the Goddard score for emphysema. Cox analyses were performed using the ILA and Goddard scores as the main explanatory variables, adjusting for multiple covariates.

RESULTS

Among 1,507 patients with lung cancer, 1,033 had no ILA, 160 had equivocal ILA, 174 had ILA, and 140 had ILD. In total, 474 patients (31.5%) exhibited interstitial pneumonia and 638 (42.3%) showed emphysema. The log-rank trend test showed that survival probability was significantly better in patients with no ILA, followed by those with equivocal ILA, ILA, and ILD (P < 0.001). After adjustment, the ILA and Goddard scores remained significant variables for increased hazard ratios (HR) for mortality: no ILA (HR, 1.00: reference), equivocal ILA (HR, 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.46; P < 0.001), ILA (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.39-2.12; P < 0.001), ILD (HR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.63-3.09; P < 0.001), and Goddard score (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06; P < 0.010). Moreover, both scores were associated with increased cause-specific HRs for AEIP.

CONCLUSION

Our results revealed that approximately one-third of patients with lung cancer had interstitial pneumonia when incorporating trivial and mild cases. Because interstitial pneumonia and emphysema, ranging from trivial to severe, significantly impact mortality and AEIP in patients with lung cancer, we should identify even trivial and mild cases of these pulmonary abnormalities among patients with lung cancer in addition to the advanced ones.

Age-specific risk factors of depression among the oldest-old - evidence from the multicenter AgeCoDe-AgeQualiDe study

Purpose

The present study aimed to investigate age-group-specific incidence rates and risk factors for depressive symptoms in the highest age groups.

Methods

Data were derived from a prospective multicenter cohort study conducted in primary care - the AgeCoDe/AgeQualiDe study. In total, 2,436 patients 75 years and older were followed from baseline to ninth follow-up. To assess depressive symptoms, the short version of the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15, cutoff score 6) was used. Age-specific competing risk regressions were performed to analyze risk factors for incident depressive symptoms in different age groups (75 to 79, 80 to 84, 85+ years), taking into account the accumulated mortality.

Results

The age-specific incidence rate of depression was 33 (95% CI 29-38), 46 (95% CI 40-52) and 63 (95% CI 45-87) per 1,000 person years for the initial age groups 75 to 79, 80 to 84 and 85+ years, respectively. In competing risk regression models, female sex, mobility as well as vision impairment, and subjective cognitive decline (SCD) were found to be risk factors for incident depression for age group 75 to 79, female sex, single/separated marital status, mobility as well as hearing impairment, and SCD for age group 80 to 84, and mobility impairment for age group 85+.

Conclusion

Depressive symptoms in latest life are common and the incidence increases with increasing age. Modifiable and differing risk factors across the highest age groups open up the possibility of specifically tailored prevention concepts.

Characteristics and incidence of infections in patients with multiple myeloma treated by bispecific antibodies: a national retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

Bispecific antibodies (BsAbs) are an effective treatment used in relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. Despite a well-tolerated safety profile, infectious events appear to be frequent in clinical trials. Real-world data on epidemiology, characteristics, risk factors, and outcomes of infections in patients treated with BsAb are still needed.

METHODS

A retrospective, multicentre study in BsAb-treated patients with multiple myeloma was performed in 14 French centres from December 2020 to February 2023. The primary objective was to describe the incidence of infections that required hospitalization, specific treatment, or adaptation in BsAb administration.

RESULTS

Among 229 patients with multiple myeloma treated with BsAb, 153 (67%) received teclistamab, 47 (20%) received elranatamab, and 29 (13%) talquetamab. We reported a total of 234 infections, including 123 (53%) of grade of ≥3. Predominant infections affected the respiratory tract (n = 116, 50%) followed by bacteraemias (n = 36, 15%). The hospitalization rate was 56% (n = 131), and 20 (9%) infections resulted in death. Global cumulative incidence of the first infection was 70% in all patients, 73% in patients treated with B-cell maturation antigen-targeting, and 51% with GPRC5D-targeting BsAb. In univariate analyses, corticosteroids for cytokine release syndrome (CRS)/immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS) were associated with a higher risk of first infection (HR = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.38-3.28), whereas GPRC5D-targeting BsAb and anti-bacterial prophylaxis were associated with a lower risk (HR = 0.53; 95% CI, 0.3-0.94 and HR = 0.65; 95% CI, 0.46-0.9). Fine and Gray multivariate model found that only corticosteroids for CRS/ICANS were correlated with a higher risk of first infection (HR = 2.01; 95% CI, 1.27-3.19).

DISCUSSIONS

The implementation of preventive measures that aim to mitigate the risk of infection under BsAb is pivotal, notably in patients who received corticosteroids for CRS/ICANS.

From evidence to clinical practice: Bridging the gap of new liver cancer therapies in Latin America

The most common primary liver tumors are hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma. They constitute the sixth most common neoplasia and the third cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Although both tumors may share etiologic factors, diagnosis, prognostic factors, and treatments, they differ substantially in determining distinctive clinical management. In recent years, significant advances have been made in the management of these neoplasms, particularly in advanced stages. In this review, we focus on the most relevant diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment aspects of both, hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma, underlying their applicability in Latin America.

Sustained post-rituximab B-cell depletion is common in ANCA-associated vasculitis and is affected by sex and renal function

OBJECTIVE

Despite the increasing use of rituximab in anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV), it remains unclear what the optimal dosing is, especially for maintenance of remission. A deeper understanding of post-rituximab B-cell repopulation patterns may aid better-tailored treatment.

METHODS

This is a monocentric, retrospective study including ANCA-positive AAV patients receiving a single course of rituximab induction. CD19+ B cells were longitudinally monitored with flow cytometry. B-cell repopulation was defined as CD19+ >10 cells/μL.

RESULTS

Seventy-one patients were included, the majority with microscopic polyangiitis (75%), myeloperoxidase-ANCA positivity (75%) and with renal involvement (79%). During a median follow-up of 54 months since the first rituximab infusion, 44 patients (62%) repopulated B cells, with a median time to repopulation of 39 months (range 7-102). Patients experiencing B-cell depletion lasting longer than the overall median time to repopulation (39 months) exhibited a lower risk of flare and higher risk of serious infection. In multivariate Cox regression, higher estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) [hazard ratio (HR) 1.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.98 per 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 eGFR] and female sex (HR 2.70, 95% CI 1.37-5.31) were independent predictors of increased rate of B-cell repopulation.

CONCLUSION

A subset of AAV patients develop sustained post-rituximab B-cell depletion, which associates with reduced risk of flare and increased risk of serious infection in the long term. Preserved renal function and female sex are associated with faster B-cell repopulation. These observations further highlight the need to personalize immunosuppression to improve clinical outcomes.

Differential Participation, a Potential Cause of Spurious Associations in Observational Cohorts in Environmental Epidemiology

Differential participation in observational cohorts may lead to biased or even reversed estimates. In this article, we describe the potential for differential participation in cohorts studying the etiologic effects of long-term environmental exposures. Such cohorts are prone to differential participation because only those who survived until the start of follow-up and were healthy enough before enrollment will participate, and many environmental exposures are prevalent in the target population and connected to participation via factors such as geography or frailty. The relatively modest effect sizes of most environmental exposures also make any bias induced by differential participation particularly important to understand and account for. We discuss key points to consider for evaluating differential participation and use causal graphs to describe two example mechanisms through which differential participation can occur in health studies of long-term environmental exposures. We use a real-life example, the Canadian Community Health Survey cohort, to illustrate the non-negligible bias due to differential participation. We also demonstrate that implementing a simple washout period may reduce the bias and recover more valid results if the effect of interest is constant over time. Furthermore, we implement simulation scenarios to confirm the plausibility of the two mechanisms causing bias and the utility of the washout method. Since the existence of differential participation can be difficult to diagnose with traditional analytical approaches that calculate a summary effect estimate, we encourage researchers to systematically investigate the presence of time-varying effect estimates and potential spurious patterns (especially in initial periods in the setting of differential participation).

Agricultural activities and risk of Alzheimer's disease: the TRACTOR project, a nationwide retrospective cohort study

Data regarding Alzheimer's disease (AD) occurrence in farming populations is lacking. This study aimed to investigate whether, among the entire French farm manager (FM) workforce, certain agricultural activities are more strongly associated with AD than others, using nationwide data from the TRACTOR (Tracking and monitoring occupational risks in agriculture) project. Administrative health insurance data (digital electronic health/medical records and insurance claims) for the entire French agricultural workforce, over the period 2002-2016, on the entire mainland France were used to estimate the risk of AD for 26 agricultural activities with Cox proportional hazards model. For each analysis (one for each activity), the exposed group included all FMs that performed the activity of interest (e.g. crop farming), while the reference group included all FMs who did not carry out the activity of interest (e.g. FMs that never farmed crops between 2002 and 2016). There were 5067 cases among 1,036,069 FMs who worked at least one year between 2002 and 2016. Analyses showed higher risks of AD for crop farming (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.72 [3.47-3.98]), viticulture (HR = 1.29 [1.18-1.42]), and fruit arboriculture (HR = 1.36 [1.15-1.62]). By contrast, lower risks of AD were found for several animal farming types, in particular for poultry and rabbit farming (HR = 0.29 [0.20-0.44]), ovine and caprine farming (HR = 0.50 [0.41-0.61]), mixed dairy and cow farming (HR = 0.46 [0.37-0.57]), dairy farming (HR = 0.67 [0.61-0.73]), and pig farming (HR = 0.30 [0.18-0.52]). This study shed some light on the association between a wide range of agricultural activities and AD in the entire French FMs population.

Bayesian parametric estimation based on left-truncated competing risks data under bivariate Clayton copula models

In observational/field studies, competing risks and left-truncation may co-exist, yielding 'left-truncated competing risks' settings. Under the assumption of independent competing risks, parametric estimation methods were developed for left-truncated competing risks data. However, competing risks may be dependent in real applications. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimator for both independent competing risks and copula-based dependent competing risks models under left-truncation. The simulations show that the Bayesian estimator for the copula-based dependent risks model yields the desired performance when competing risks are dependent. We also comprehensively explore the choice of the prior distributions (Gamma, Inverse-Gamma, Uniform, half Normal and half Cauchy) and hyperparameters via simulations. Finally, two real datasets are analyzed to demonstrate the proposed estimators.

COVID-19-related cardiovascular disease risk due to weight gain: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide, with CVD and post-acute COVID-19 associated CVD increasing. It remains unknown whether COVID-19 patients with weight gain are at a high risk for CVD events. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to investigate the association between weight control and the risk of CVD following COVID-19.

METHODS

The study included 2,024,728 adults who participated in two rounds of health screening between 2017 and 2020. The final cohort, which included 70,996 participants in the COVID-19 group and 212,869 participants in the control group. The adjusted hazard ratio of BMI change to CVD risk was calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 2869 cases of CVD (861 events for COVID-19 group and 2,008 events for the control group). Compared to individuals with a stable BMI, COVID-19 patients without obesity had an increased risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-4.53; p-value = 0.018). Additionally, non-COVID-19 patients with obesity also exhibited a higher risk of CVD (aHR = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.01-2.47; p-value = 0.046).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, people who gained weight during the pandemic, regardless of their weight category, had a significantly higher risk of CVD associated with COVID-19 compared to those who maintained their weight before the pandemic.

The Inverse Log-Rank Test: A Versatile Procedure for Late Separating Survival Curves

Often in the planning phase of a clinical trial, a researcher will need to choose between a standard versus weighted log-rank test (LRT) for investigating right-censored survival data. While a standard LRT is optimal for analyzing evenly distributed but distinct survival events (proportional hazards), an appropriately weighted LRT test may be better suited for handling non-proportional, delayed treatment effects. The "a priori" misspecification of this alternative may result in a substantial loss of power when determining the effectiveness of an experimental drug. In this paper, the standard unweighted and inverse log-rank tests (iLRTs) are compared with the multiple weight, default Max-Combo procedure for analyzing differential late survival outcomes. Unlike combination LRTs that depend on the arbitrary selection of weights, the iLRT by definition is a single weight test and does not require implicit multiplicity correction. Empirically, both weighted methods have reasonable flexibility for assessing continuous survival curve differences from the onset of a study. However, the iLRT may be preferable for accommodating delayed separating survival curves, especially when one arm finishes first. Using standard large-sample methods, the power and sample size for the iLRT are easily estimated without resorting to complex and timely simulations.

Metachronous colorectal cancer risk according to Lynch syndrome pathogenic variant after extensive versus partial colectomy in the Netherlands: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Extensive colectomy (subtotal or total colectomy) is often advised for carriers of Lynch syndrome with colorectal cancer. However, the risk of metachronous colorectal cancer might differ by Lynch syndrome variant, meaning that partial colectomy, which has better functional outcomes, might be adequate for some patients with low-risk variants. We aimed to assess the risk of metachronous colorectal cancer after partial colectomy and extensive colectomy in carriers of Lynch syndrome with different pathogenic variants.

METHODS

For this retrospective cohort study, carriers of Lynch syndrome with colorectal cancer in the Netherlands were identified by linkage of the Dutch Foundation for the Detection of Hereditary Tumors (StOET) database and the Dutch Nationwide Network and Registry of Histopathology and Cytopathology (PALGA) database. Data on demographics, Lynch syndrome variants, colorectal cancers, surgery types, mortality, and surveillance colonoscopies were extracted. Data on colorectal cancer and surveillance colonoscopies were updated until Feb 28, 2022. Data on survival status was updated until Feb 7, 2022. MLH1, MSH2, and EPCAM were classified as high-risk variants and MSH6 and PMS2 as low-risk variants. Patients for whom the type of surgery was unknown were excluded. Cox regression time-to-event analyses were done to assess the risk of metachronous colorectal cancer in four subgroups based on pathogenic variant (high-risk vs low-risk variants) and the extent of surgery (extensive colectomy vs partial colectomy). Sex, age at the time of primary colorectal cancer, primary colorectal cancer stage, performance of surveillance colonoscopies, adherence to the surveillance guidelines, and time period of primary colorectal cancer diagnosis were added to the model as possible confounders. Metachronous colorectal cancer was defined as colorectal cancer diagnosed more than 6 months after the primary colorectal cancer. Patients were censored at time of death or assembly of the database.

FINDINGS

Of 1908 carriers of Lynch syndrome registered in StOET, 532 with a history of colorectal cancer were identified after linkage with PALGA. Five carriers were excluded because of an unknown surgery type, leaving 527 in our sample (mean age at primary colorectal cancer 48·7 years [SD 12·1]; 274 [52%] male and 253 [48%] female). 121 (23%) patients developed metachronous colorectal cancer (median time from primary colorectal cancer to metachronous colorectal cancer 11·0 years [IQR 2·1-17·8]). Metachronous colorectal cancer occurred in 12 (12%) of 97 patients with high-risk variants and extensive colectomy, in 85 (32%) of 267 patients with high-risk variants and partial colectomy, in zero (0%) of 11 patients with low-risk variants and extensive colectomy, and in 24 (16%) of 152 patients with low-risk variants and partial colectomy. Partial colectomy was associated with a higher risk of metachronous colorectal cancer than extensive colectomy in the high-risk variant group (hazard ratio 1·97, 95% CI 1·04-3·73; p=0·039). The risk of metachronous colorectal cancer did not differ between carriers of low-risk variants who had partial colectomy and those of high-risk variants who had extensive colectomy (1·14, 0·55-2·36; p=0·72).

INTERPRETATION

The risk of metachronous colorectal cancer after partial colectomy in carriers of low-risk variants is similar to the risk after extensive colectomy in carriers of high-risk variants. This finding suggests that partial colectomy followed by endoscopic surveillance is an appropriate management approach to treat colorectal cancer in carriers of low-risk Lynch syndrome variants.

FUNDING

None.

A Synopsis of the Evidence for the Science and Clinical Management of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) Syndrome: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

A growing appreciation of the pathophysiological interrelatedness of metabolic risk factors such as obesity and diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and cardiovascular disease has led to the conceptualization of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome. The confluence of metabolic risk factors and chronic kidney disease within cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome is strongly linked to risk for adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. In addition, there are unique management considerations for individuals with established cardiovascular disease and coexisting metabolic risk factors, chronic kidney disease, or both. An extensive body of literature supports our scientific understanding of, and approach to, prevention and management for individuals with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome. However, there are critical gaps in knowledge related to cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome in terms of mechanisms of disease development, heterogeneity within clinical phenotypes, interplay between social determinants of health and biological risk factors, and accurate assessments of disease incidence in the context of competing risks. There are also key limitations in the data supporting the clinical care for cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome, particularly in terms of early-life prevention, screening for risk factors, interdisciplinary care models, optimal strategies for supporting lifestyle modification and weight loss, targeting of emerging cardioprotective and kidney-protective therapies, management of patients with both cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, and the impact of systematically assessing and addressing social determinants of health. This scientific statement uses a crosswalk of major guidelines, in addition to a review of the scientific literature, to summarize the evidence and fundamental gaps related to the science, screening, prevention, and management of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome.

Life years lost associated with mental illness: A cohort study of beneficiaries of a South African medical insurance scheme

BACKGROUND

People with mental illness have a reduced life expectancy, but the extent of the mortality gap and the contribution of natural and unnatural causes to excess mortality among people with mental illness in South Africa are unknown.

METHODS

We analysed reimbursement claims from South African medical insurance scheme beneficiaries aged 15-85 years. We estimated excess life years lost (LYL) associated with organic, substance use, psychotic, mood, anxiety, eating, personality, developmental or any mental disorders.

RESULTS

We followed 1,070,183 beneficiaries for a median of three years, of whom 282,926 (26.4 %) received mental health diagnoses. Men with a mental health diagnosis lost 3.83 life years (95 % CI 3.58-4.10) compared to men without. Women with a mental health diagnosis lost 2.19 life years (1.97-2.41) compared to women without. Excess mortality varied by sex and diagnosis, from 11.50 LYL (95 % CI 9.79-13.07) among men with alcohol use disorder to 0.87 LYL (0.40-1.43) among women with generalised anxiety disorder. Most LYL were attributable to natural causes (men: 3.42, women: 1.94). A considerable number of LYL were attributable to unnatural causes among men with bipolar (1.52) or substance use (2.45) disorder.

LIMITATIONS

Mental diagnoses are based on reimbursement claims.

CONCLUSIONS

Premature mortality among South African individuals with mental disorders is high. Our findings support interventions for the prevention, early detection, and treatment of physical comorbidities in this population. Targeted programs for suicide prevention and substance use treatment, particularly among men, can help reduce excess mortality from unnatural causes.

Second primary cancer among 217702 colorectal cancer survivors: An analysis of national German cancer registry data

With improvements in survival after colorectal cancer (CRC), more survivors are at risk of developing a second cancer, particularly in younger populations where CRC incidence is increasing. We estimated the incidence of second primary cancer (SPC) in CRC survivors and its potential risk factors. We identified CRC cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and SPCs until 2013 from nine German cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and absolute excess risk (AER) per 10 000 person-years were calculated and were stratified by index site: colon cancer (CC) and rectal cancer (RC), age and sex. Cox regression assessed potential SPC risk factors, including primary tumor-related therapy considering death as a competing risk. We included 217 202 primary CRC cases. SPC occurred in 18 751 CRC survivors (8.6%; median age: 69 years). Risk of cancer was significantly higher in CRC survivors than in the general population (SIR males 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.17, AER = 24.7; SIR females 1.20, 95% CI 1.17-1.23, AER = 22.8). Increased risks of SPCs were observed for the digestive system, urinary system and female and male reproductive organs. CRC incidence increased in younger persons (<50 years) and SPC incidence was 4-fold in this group (SIR males 4.51, 95% CI 4.04-5.01, AER = 64.2; SIR females 4.03, 95% CI 3.62-4.48, AER = 77.0). Primary tumor-related factors associated with SPC risk were right-sided cancer and smaller primary tumor size. Treatment and risk of SPC differed for CC (no effect) and RC (lower risk after chemotherapy). CRC survivors have excess risk of developing SPC, with particular characteristics that could guide targeted surveillance.

New-Onset Diabetes after an Obesity-Related Cancer Diagnosis and Survival Outcomes in the Women's Health Initiative

BACKGROUND

Individuals diagnosed with an obesity-related cancer (ORC survivors) are at an elevated risk of incident diabetes compared with cancer-free individuals, but whether this confers survival disadvantage is unknown.

METHODS

We assessed the rate of incident diabetes in ORC survivors and evaluated the association of incident diabetes with all-cause and cancer-specific mortality among females with ORC in the Women's Health Initiative cohort (N = 14,651). Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by exposure-risk periods (0-1, >1-3, >3-5, >5-7, and >7-10 years) from ORC diagnosis and time-varying exposure (diabetes) analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Among the ORC survivors, a total of 1.3% developed diabetes within ≤1 year of follow-up and 2.5%, 2.3%, 2.3%, and 3.6% at 1-3, 3-5, 5-7, and 7-10 years of follow-up, respectively, after an ORC diagnosis. The median survival for those diagnosed with diabetes within 1-year of cancer diagnosis and those with no diabetes diagnosis in that time frame was 8.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 7.0-14.5) years and 16.6 (95% CI, 16.1-17.0) years, respectively. New-onset compared with no diabetes as a time-varying exposure was associated with higher risk of all-cause (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40) and cancer-specific (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.99-1.38) mortality. When stratified by exposure-risk periods, incident diabetes in ≤1 year of follow-up was associated with higher all-cause (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.40-2.20) and cancer-specific (HR0-1, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.28-2.57) mortality, compared with no diabetes diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident diabetes was associated with worse cancer-specific and all-cause survival, particularly in the year after cancer diagnosis.

IMPACT

These findings draw attention to the importance of diabetes prevention efforts among cancer survivors to improve survival outcomes.

Atrial Fibrillation (AFIB) in the ICU: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes: The International AFIB-ICU Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the ICU and to describe current practice in the management of AF.

DESIGN

Multicenter, prospective, inception cohort study.

SETTING

Forty-four ICUs in 12 countries in four geographical regions.

SUBJECTS

Adult, acutely admitted ICU patients without a history of persistent/permanent AF or recent cardiac surgery were enrolled; inception periods were from October 2020 to June 2021.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We included 1,423 ICU patients and analyzed 1,415 (99.4%), among whom 221 patients had 539 episodes of AF. Most (59%) episodes were diagnosed with continuous electrocardiogram monitoring. The incidence of AF was 15.6% (95% CI, 13.8-17.6), of which newly developed AF was 13.3% (11.5-15.1). A history of arterial hypertension, paroxysmal AF, sepsis, or high disease severity at ICU admission was associated with AF. Used interventions to manage AF were fluid bolus 19% (95% CI 16-23), magnesium 16% (13-20), potassium 15% (12-19), amiodarone 51% (47-55), beta-1 selective blockers 34% (30-38), calcium channel blockers 4% (2-6), digoxin 16% (12-19), and direct current cardioversion in 4% (2-6). Patients with AF had more ischemic, thromboembolic (13.6% vs 7.9%), and severe bleeding events (5.9% vs 2.1%), and higher mortality (41.2% vs 25.2%) than those without AF. The adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio for 90-day mortality by AF was 1.38 (95% CI, 0.95-1.99).

CONCLUSIONS

In ICU patients, AF occurred in one of six and was associated with different conditions. AF was associated with worse outcomes while not statistically significantly associated with 90-day mortality in the adjusted analyses. We observed variations in the diagnostic and management strategies for AF.

Safety analysis of new medications in clinical trials: a simulation study to assess the differences between cause-specific and subdistribution frameworks in the presence of competing events

Safety is an essential part of the evaluation of new medications and competing risks that occur in most clinical trials are a well identified challenge in the analysis of adverse events. Two statistical frameworks exist to consider competing risks: the cause-specific and the subdistribution framework. To date, the application of the cause-specific framework is the standard practice in safety analyses. Here we analyze how the safety analysis results of new medications would be affected if instead of the cause-specific the subdistribution framework was chosen. We conducted a simulation study with 600 participants, equally allocated to verum and control groups and a 30 months follow-up period. Simulated trials were analyzed for safety in a competing risk (death) setting using both the cause-specific and subdistribution frameworks. Results show that comparing safety profiles in a subdistribution setting is always more pessimistic than in a cause-specific setting. For the group with the longest survival and a safety advantage in a cause-specific setting, the advantage either disappeared or a disadvantage was found in the subdistribution analysis setting. These observations are not contradictory but show different perspectives. To evaluate the safety of a new medication over its comparator, one needs to understand the origin of both the risks and the benefits associated with each therapy. These requirements are best met with a cause-specific framework. The subdistribution framework seems better suited for clinical prediction, and therefore more relevant for providers or payers, for example.

Readmission and Mortality After Hospitalization With Acute Kidney Injury

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Acute kidney injury (AKI) carries high rates of morbidity and mortality. This study quantified various short- and long-term outcomes after hospitalization with AKI.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective propensity score (PS)-matched cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Optum Clinformatics, a national claims database, was used to identify patients hospitalized with and without an AKI discharge diagnosis between January 2007 and September 2020.

EXPOSURE

Among patients with prior continuous enrollment for at least 2years without AKI hospitalization, 471,176 patients hospitalized with AKI were identified and PS-matched to 471,176 patients hospitalized without AKI.

OUTCOME(S)

All-cause and selected-cause rehospitalizations and mortality 90 and 365 days after index hospitalization.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

After PS matching, rehospitalization and death incidences were estimated using the cumulative incidence function method and compared using Gray's test. The association of AKI hospitalization with each outcome was tested using Cox models for all-cause mortality and, with mortality as competing risk, cause-specific hazard modeling for all-cause and selected-cause rehospitalization. Overall and stratified analyses were performed to evaluate for interaction between an AKI hospitalization and preexisting chronic kidney disease (CKD).

RESULTS

After PS matching, AKI was associated with higher rates of rehospitalization for any cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.62; 95% CI, 1.60-1.65), end-stage renal disease (HR, 6.21; 95% CI, 1.04-36.92), heart failure (HR, 2.81; 95% CI, 2.66, 2.97), sepsis (HR, 2.62; 95% CI, 2.49-2.75), pneumonia (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.37-1.57), myocardial infarction (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.33-1.65), and volume depletion (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.37-1.96) at 90 days after discharge compared with the group without AKI, with similar findings at 365 days. Mortality rate was higher in the group with AKI than in the group without AKI at 90 (HR, 2.66; 95% CI, 2.61-2.72) and 365 days (HR, 2.11; 95% CI, 2.08-2.14). The higher risk of outcomes persisted when participants were stratified by CKD status (P<0.01).

LIMITATIONS

Causal associations between AKI and the reported outcomes cannot be inferred.

CONCLUSIONS

AKI during hospitalization in patients with and without CKD is associated with increased risk of 90- and 365-day all-cause/selected-cause rehospitalization and death.

Psychological therapies for depression and cardiovascular risk: evidence from national healthcare records in England

AIMS

People with depression are up to 72% more at risk to develop cardiovascular disease (CVD) in their lifetime. Evidence-based psychotherapies are first-line interventions for the treatment of depression and are delivered nationally in England through the National Health Service via the Improving Access to Psychological Therapy (IAPT) primary care programme. It is currently unknown whether positive therapy outcomes may be associated with cardiovascular risk reduction. This study aimed to examine the association between psychotherapy outcomes for depression and incident CVD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A cohort of 636 955 individuals who have completed a course of psychotherapy was built from linked electronic healthcare record databases of national coverage in England: the national IAPT database, the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database, and the HES-ONS (Office of National Statistics) mortality database. Multivariable Cox models adjusting for clinical and demographic covariates were run to estimate the association between reliable improvement from depression and the risk of subsequent incidence of cardiovascular events. After a median follow-up of 3.1 years, reliable improvement from depression symptoms was associated with a lower risk of new onset of any CVD [hazard ratio (HR): 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86, 0.89], coronary heart disease (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86, 0.92), stroke (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.94), and all-cause mortality (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.78, 0.84). This association was stronger in the under 60 compared with the over 60 for all outcomes. Results were confirmed in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Management of depression through psychological interventions may be associated with reduced risk of CVD. More research is needed to understand the causality of these associations.

Early-stage predictors of deterioration among 3145 nonsevere SARS-CoV-2-infected people community-isolated in Wuhan, China: A combination of machine learning algorithms and competing risk survival analyses

OBJECTIVE

To determine which early-stage variables best predicted the deterioration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among community-isolated people infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and to test the performance of prediction using only inexpensive-to-measure variables.

METHODS

Medical records of 3145 people isolated in two Fangcang shelter hospitals (large-scale community isolation centers) from February to March 2020 were accessed. Two complementary methods-machine learning algorithms and competing risk survival analyses-were used to test potential predictors, including age, gender, severity upon admission, symptoms (general symptoms, respiratory symptoms, and gastrointestinal symptoms), computed tomography (CT) signs, and comorbid chronic diseases. All variables were measured upon (or shortly after) admission. The outcome was deterioration versus recovery of COVID-19.

RESULTS

More than a quarter of the 3145 people did not present any symptoms, while one-third ended isolation due to deterioration. Machine learning models identified moderate severity upon admission, old age, and CT ground-glass opacity as the most important predictors of deterioration. Removing CT signs did not degrade the performance of models. Competing risk models identified age ≥ 35 years, male gender, moderate severity upon admission, cough, expectoration, CT patchy opacity, CT consolidation, comorbid diabetes, and comorbid cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases as significant predictors of deterioration, while a stuffy or runny nose as a predictor of recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-stage prediction of COVID-19 deterioration can be made with inexpensive-to-measure variables, such as demographic characteristics, severity upon admission, observable symptoms, and self-reported comorbid diseases, among asymptomatic people and mildly to moderately symptomatic patients.

Denosumab and incidence of type 2 diabetes among adults with osteoporosis: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of denosumab compared with oral bisphosphonates on reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes in adults with osteoporosis.

DESIGN

Population based study involving emulation of a randomized target trial using electronic health records.

SETTING

IQVIA Medical Research Data primary care database in the United Kingdom, 1995-2021.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 45 years or older who used denosumab or an oral bisphosphonate for osteoporosis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was incident type 2 diabetes, as defined by diagnostic codes. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, comparing denosumab with oral bisphosphonates using an as treated approach.

RESULTS

4301 new users of denosumab were matched on propensity score to 21 038 users of an oral bisphosphonate and followed for a mean of 2.2 years. The incidence rate of type 2 diabetes in denosumab users was 5.7 (95% confidence interval 4.3 to 7.3) per 1000 person years and in oral bisphosphonate users was 8.3 (7.4 to 9.2) per 1000 person years. Initiation of denosumab was associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio 0.68, 95% confidence interval 0.52 to 0.89). Participants with prediabetes appeared to benefit more from denosumab compared with an oral bisphosphonate (hazard ratio 0.54, 0.35 to 0.82), as did those with a body mass index ≥30 (0.65, 0.40 to 1.06).

CONCLUSIONS

In this population based study, denosumab use was associated with a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with oral bisphosphonate use in adults with osteoporosis. This study provides evidence at a population level that denosumab may have added benefits for glucose metabolism compared with oral bisphosphonates.

Association Between Hospital-Documented Atrial Fibrillation and Central Retinal Artery Occlusion

BACKGROUND

Carotid stenosis is thought to be the primary risk factor for central retinal artery occlusion (CRAO); however, it is not known whether atrial fibrillation (AF)-a cardiac arrhythmia that underlies over 25% of cerebral ischemic strokes-predisposes patients to CRAO.

METHODS

A retrospective, observational, cohort study was performed using data from the State Inpatient Databases and State Emergency Department Databases from New York (2006-2015), California (2003-2011), and Florida (2005-2015) to determine the association between AF and CRAO. The primary exposure was hospital-documented AF. The primary end point was hospital-documented CRAO, defined as having an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, code 362.31 in the primary diagnosis position. Cause-specific hazard models were used to model CRAO-free survival among patients according to hospital-documented AF status.

RESULTS

Of 39 834 885 patients included in the study, 2 723 842 (median age, 72.7 years; 48.5% women) had AF documented during the exposure window. The median follow-up duration was 6 years and 1 month. Patients with AF were older, more likely to be of non-Hispanic White race/ethnicity, and had a higher burden of cardiovascular comorbidities compared with patients without AF. The cumulative incidence of CRAO determined prospectively after exclusions was 8.69 per 100 000 at risk in those with AF and 2.39 per 100 000 at risk in those without AF over the study period. Before adjustment, AF was associated with higher risk of CRAO (hazard ratio, 2.55 [95% CI, 2.15-3.03]). However, after adjustment for demographics, state, and cardiovascular comorbidities, there was an inverse association between AF and risk of CRAO (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.60-0.87]). These findings were robust in our prespecified sensitivity analyses. By contrast, positive control outcomes of embolic and ischemic stroke showed an expected strong relationship between AF and risk of stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

We found an inverse association between AF and CRAO in a large, representative study of hospitalized patients; however, this cohort did not ascertain AF or CRAO occurring outside of hospital or emergency department settings.

Target Trial Emulation Using Hospital-Based Observational Data: Demonstration and Application in COVID-19

Methodological biases are common in observational studies evaluating treatment effectiveness. The objective of this study is to emulate a target trial in a competing risks setting using hospital-based observational data. We extend established methodology accounting for immortal time bias and time-fixed confounding biases to a setting where no survival information beyond hospital discharge is available: a condition common to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) research data. This exemplary study includes a cohort of 618 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We describe methodological opportunities and challenges that cannot be overcome applying traditional statistical methods. We demonstrate the practical implementation of this trial emulation approach via clone-censor-weight techniques. We undertake a competing risk analysis, reporting the cause-specific cumulative hazards and cumulative incidence probabilities. Our analysis demonstrates that a target trial emulation framework can be extended to account for competing risks in COVID-19 hospital studies. In our analysis, we avoid immortal time bias, time-fixed confounding bias, and competing risks bias simultaneously. Choosing the length of the grace period is justified from a clinical perspective and has an important advantage in ensuring reliable results. This extended trial emulation with the competing risk analysis enables an unbiased estimation of treatment effects, along with the ability to interpret the effectiveness of treatment on all clinically important outcomes.

The impact of preservation and recovery of renal function on survival after veno-arterial extracorporeal life support: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Veno-arterial extracorporeal life support (V-A ECLS) has become a cornerstone in the management of critical cardiogenic shock, but it can also precipitate organ injury, e.g., acute kidney injury (AKI). Available studies highlight the effect of non-cardiac organ injury on patient outcomes. Only very little is known about the impact of non-cardiac organ recovery on patient survival. AKI occurs frequently during cardiogenic shock and carries a poor prognosis. We have developed descriptive models to hypothesize on the role of AKI severity versus that of recovery of renal function for patient survival.

METHODS

Retrospective, observational study including 175 patients who were successfully decannulated from V-A ECLS. We assessed AKI severity using the "Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes" (KDIGO) criteria. We defined recovered or preserved renal function (RPRF) prior to decannulation from V-A ECLS as 0 (AKI with no improvement) or 1 (no AKI or AKI with improvement). We classified patient outcomes as alive or dead at hospital discharge.

RESULTS

78% (n = 138) of all patients survived hospital discharge of which 38% (n = 67) never developed AKI. After adjusting for shock severity and non-renal organ injury, RPRF emerged as an independent predictor of survival in both the overall cohort [OR (95% CI) - 4.11 (1.72-9.79)] and the AKI-only sub-cohort [OR (95% CI) - 5.18 (1.8-14.92)]. Neither maximum KDIGO stage nor KDIGO stage at the end of V-A ECLS was independently associated with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model identifies RPRF, but not AKI severity, as an independent predictor of hospital survival in patients undergoing V-A ECLS for cardiogenic shock. We hypothesize that recovered or preserved non-cardiac organ function during V-A ECLS is crucial for patient survival.

One-year rehospitalisation and mortality after acute heart failure hospitalisation: a competing risk analysis

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors that independently predict the risk of rehospitalisation and death after acute heart failure (AHF) hospital discharge in a real-world setting, considering death without rehospitalisation as a competing event.

METHODS

Single-centre, retrospective, observational study enrolling 394 patients discharged from an index AHF hospitalisation. Overall survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. For the risk of rehospitalisation, survival analysis considering competing risks was performed: rehospitalisation was the event of interest, and death without rehospitalisation was the competing event.

RESULTS

During the first year after discharge, 131 (33.3%) patients were rehospitalised for AHF and 67 (17.0%) died without being readmitted; the remaining 196 patients (49.7%) lived without further hospitalisations. The 1-year overall survival estimate was 0.71 (SE=0.02). After adjusting for gender, age and left ventricle ejection fraction, the results showed that the risk of death was higher in patients with dementia, higher levels of plasma creatinine (PCr), lower levels of platelet distribution width (PDW) and at Q4 of red cell distribution width (RDW). Multivariable models showed that the risk of rehospitalisation was increased in patients with atrial fibrillation, higher PCr or taking beta-blockers at discharge. Furthermore, the risk of death without AHF rehospitalisation was higher in males, those aged ≥80 years, patients with dementia or RDW at Q4 on admission (compared with Q1). Taking beta-blockers at discharge and having a higher PDW on admission reduced the risk of death without rehospitalisation.

CONCLUSION

When assessing rehospitalisation as a study endpoint, death without rehospitalisation should be considered a competing event in the analyses. Data from this study reveal that patients with atrial fibrillation, renal dysfunction or taking beta-blockers are more likely to be rehospitalised for AHF, while older men with dementia or high RDW are more prone to die without hospital readmission.

Alcohol consumption from midlife and risk of disabling dementia in a large population-based cohort study in Japan

OBJECTIVES

The association between alcohol consumption and dementia in Japanese is poorly understood, and use of single-point alcohol assessment may cause measurement error. We explored this association in Japanese using repeated alcohol assessments.

METHODS

Participants in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study (JPHC Study) since 1990 and who were alive in 2006 were followed from 2006 until 2016 for dementia ascertainment. Disabling dementia was identified through long-term care insurance records. Alcohol consumption was assessed at the 5-year questionnaire survey (1995-1999) and drinking patterns were assessed on repeated follow-up (2000-2003). We performed Cox proportional hazards models with age as the time-scale with adjustment for various lifestyle factors and medical history using light consumption (<75 g ethanol/week, hereinafter "g") as reference. Analysis considering death as a competing risk was also conducted.

RESULTS

Among 42,870 participants aged 54-84 years, 4802 cases of disabling dementia were newly diagnosed. Average years from alcohol assessment until dementia incidence was 14.9 years. Non-drinkers and regular drinkers with ≥450 g at 5 years had adjusted HRs (95% CI) of 1.29 (1.12-1.47) and 1.34 (1.12-1.60). Patterns of long-term abstinence, former drinking, and regular heavy weekly consumption of ≥450 g showed increased adjusted HRs of 1.61 (1.28-2.03), 2.54 (1.93-3.35), and 1.96 (1.49-2.59), respectively. Competing risk analysis yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

In Japanese, non-drinking and regular weekly consumption of ≥450 g from midlife were associated with high risk of disabling dementia compared with light drinking.

Estimating disease incidence rates and transition probabilities in elderly patients using multi-state models: a case study in fragility fracture using a Bayesian approach

BACKGROUND

Multi-state models are complex stochastic models which focus on pathways defined by the temporal and sequential occurrence of numerous events of interest. In particular, the so-called illness-death models are especially useful for studying probabilities associated to diseases whose occurrence competes with other possible diseases, health conditions or death. They can be seen as a generalization of the competing risks models, which are widely used to estimate disease-incidences among populations with a high risk of death, such as elderly or cancer patients. The main advantage of the aforementioned illness-death models is that they allow the treatment of scenarios with non-terminal competing events that may occur sequentially, which competing risks models fail to do.

METHODS

We propose an illness-death model using Cox proportional hazards models with Weibull baseline hazard functions, and applied the model to a study of recurrent hip fracture. Data came from the PREV2FO cohort and included 34491 patients aged 65 years and older who were discharged alive after a hospitalization due to an osteoporotic hip fracture between 2008-2015. We used a Bayesian approach to approximate the posterior distribution of each parameter of the model, and thus cumulative incidences and transition probabilities. We also compared these results with a competing risks specification.

RESULTS

Posterior transition probabilities showed higher probabilities of death for men and increasing with age. Women were more likely to refracture as well as less likely to die after it. Free-event time was shown to reduce the probability of death. Estimations from the illness-death and the competing risks models were identical for those common transitions although the illness-death model provided additional information from the transition from refracture to death.

CONCLUSIONS

We illustrated how multi-state models, in particular illness-death models, may be especially useful when dealing with survival scenarios which include multiple events, with competing diseases or when death is an unavoidable event to consider. Illness-death models via transition probabilities provide additional information of transitions from non-terminal health conditions to absorbing states such as death, what implies a deeper understanding of the real-world problem involved compared to competing risks models.

A competing risk survival analysis of the sociodemographic factors of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in Ecuador

This study aimed to analyze the effect of sociodemographic characteristics on COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in Ecuador from March 1 to December 31, 2020. This retrospective longitudinal study was performed with data from publicly accessible registries of the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC). Data underwent a competing risk analysis with estimates of the cumulative incidence function (CIF). The effect of covariates on CIFs was estimated using the Fine-Gray model and results were expressed as adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR). The analysis included 30,991 confirmed COVID-19 patients with a mean age of 56.57±18.53 years; 60.7% (n = 18,816) were men and 39.3% (n = 12,175) were women. Being of advanced age, especially older than or equal to 75 years (SHR = 17.97; 95%CI: 13.08-24.69), being a man (SHR = 1.29; 95%CI: 1.22-1.36), living in rural areas (SHR = 1.18; 95%CI: 1.10-1.26), and receiving care in a public health center (SHR = 1.64; 95%CI: 1.51-1.78) were factors that increased the incidence of death from COVID-19, while living at an elevation higher than 2,500 meters above sea level (SHR = 0.69; 95%CI: 0.66-0.73) decreased this incidence. Since the incidence of death for individuals living in rural areas and who received medical care from the public sector was higher, income and poverty are important factors in the final outcome of this disease.

Relationship between Cytomegalovirus Viremia and Long-Term Outcomes in Kidney Transplant Recipients with Different Donor Ages

OBJECTIVES

To explore the Cytomegalovirus (CMV) burden on the long-term post-transplant course in different donor ages, we evaluated the incidence and risk factors for CMV in our kidney-transplanted patients (KTs) with extensive adoption of expanded-criteria donors (ECDs).

METHODS

Retrospective evaluation of 929 consecutive first KTs (49.5% receiving an organ from a donor ≥ 60 years) performed between 01-2003 and 12-2013. Overall survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves; cumulative incidence function was additionally analyzed to consider the potential role of death with a functioning graft as a competitive event with graft dysfunction and to avoid overestimation. Apart from regular DNAemia monitoring in all patients, prophylaxis was adopted in high-risk groups (D+/R- or recipients of anti-thymocyte globulin induction), with pre-emptive therapy in the remaining groups.

RESULTS

CMV incidence was 19.5% (4-34.9% according to serostatus combination: D-/R-, D-/R+, D+/R+, D+/R-). Donor and recipient age, recipient pre-transplant hypertension, DR antigen compatibility, cold ischemia time, and post-transplant early complications, including rejection, urologic and renal artery stenosis, and lower renal function and proteinuria ≥ 0.5 g/day at one year after KT were associated with CMV. CMV determined lower death-censored graft survival (DCGS) (p < 0.01), with a prominent effect in R+ (p < 0.01) and without impact in R- (p = 0.32 in D-/R- and p = 0.006 in D+/R-). Interestingly, CMV occurrence influenced DCGS only in KTs who received grafts from donors < 50 or 50-69 years old (p < 0.01), while it was not significant with older donors (p = 0.07). The analysis of the cumulative incidence of graft loss accounting for death as a competing risk confirmed all these findings. In multivariate analysis, CMV replication/disease in the first year was an independent predictor for DCGS (HR 1.73 [1.3-2.3]).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large population with extensive ECD adoption, CMV viremia in the first year demonstrates its harmful effect with an independent role for graft loss and significant impact among R+ recipients and KTs with donors < 70 years.

Impact of Age at Diagnosis on Cardiotoxicity in High-Grade Osteosarcoma and Ewing Sarcoma Patients

Background

Osteosarcoma and Ewing sarcoma patients face a significant risk of cardiotoxicity as defined by left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure (HF).

Objectives

This study sought to evaluate the association between age at sarcoma diagnosis and incident HF.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was performed at the largest sarcoma center in the Netherlands among patients with an osteosarcoma or Ewing sarcoma. All patients were diagnosed and treated over a 36-year period (1982-2018) and followed until August 2021. Incident HF was adjudicated through the universal definition of heart failure. Determinants including age at diagnosis, doxorubicin dose, and cardiovascular risk factors were entered as fixed or time-dependent covariates into a cause-specific Cox model to assess their impact on incident HF.

Results

The study population consisted of 528 patients with a median age at diagnosis of 19 years (Q1-Q3: 15-30 years). Over a median follow-up time of 13.2 years (Q1-Q3: 12.5-14.9 years), 18 patients developed HF with an estimated cumulative incidence of 5.9% (95% CI: 2.8%-9.1%). In a multivariable model, age at diagnosis (HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.06-1.43) per 5-year increase, doxorubicin dose per 10-mg/m² increase (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.03-1.24), and female sex (HR: 3.17; 95% CI: 1.11-9.10) were associated with HF.

Conclusions

In a large cohort of sarcoma patients, we found that patients diagnosed at an older age are more prone to develop HF.

The role of radiotherapy in HER2+ early-stage breast cancer patients after breast-conserving surgery

Background

Due to radioresistance, some HER2+ patients may gain limited benefit from radiotherapy (RT) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS). This study aimed to develop an individualized nomogram to identify early-stage HER2+ patients who could omit RT after BCS.

Methods

The data of HER2+ patients with T0-2N0M0 breast cancer after BCS between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER). Based on the independent prognostic factors determined by the Cox analysis in patients without RT after propensity score matching (PSM), the nomogram and risk stratification model were constructed, and then the prognosis of patients with and without RT was compared in each stratified group.

Results

A total of 10799 early-stage HER2+ patients after BCS were included. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups after PSM. Multivariate Cox analysis indicated that RT could improve overall survival (OS) (HR: 0.45, P<0.001) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) (HR: 0.53, P<0.001). Age, marital status, tumor location, tumor size, and chemotherapy were identified by multivariate Cox analysis in patients without RT and were incorporated into a well-validated nomogram. The risk stratification model based on the nomogram indicated that RT was associated with improved OS (HR 0.40, P< 0.001) and BCSS (HR 0.39, P< 0.001) in the high-risk group but not in the low-risk group [OS: HR 1.04, P = 0.94; BCSS: HR 1.06, P = 0.93].

Conclusion

RT could significantly improve the OS and BCSS of HER2+ early-stage breast cancer patients after BCS on the whole. For high-risk patients, RT is an essential component of cancer therapy. However, the omission of radiotherapy may be considered for low-risk HER2+ early-stage patients. Further validation and improvement of the nomogram by prospective study or randomized controlled trials are warranted.

Bias due to statistical handling of death and reirradiation in the assessment of duration of response after palliative radiotherapy: a scoping review and analysis of clinical data

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the influence of handling death and reirradiation on the estimation of duration of response (DOR).

METHODS

First, we performed a scoping review on methods to assess DOR in palliative radiotherapy. Second, we performed three different analyses on a subgroup of patients from a previously published prospective study. The first analysis was a competing risks analysis considering relapse of pain as the event of interest and death and reirradiation as competing events (Analysis A). The second and third analyses were standard survival analyses where the event of interest was a composite outcome of relapse of pain, death, or reirradiation (Analysis B) and relapse of pain (Analysis C), respectively.

RESULTS

Death was considered as an event of interest in less than half of the papers, while reirradiation was not considered in any of the studies. Competing risks analysis was not performed in any of the studies. In the analysis of clinical data, competing risks analysis showed that relapse of pain predominated as the cause of the end of response. Median DOR was correctly estimated to be 4.1 months in Analyses A and B, but was overestimated to be 8.1 months in Analysis C.

CONCLUSIONS

Death and reirradiation should be treated as the events of interest that mark the end of response (as in Analyses A and B) to avoid overestimation of treatment efficacy and an invalid assumption of independent censoring.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

The definition of end of response remains inconclusive in the assessment of DOR. We recommend competing risks analysis (Analysis A), by which we can estimate cumulative incidence of each event type and evaluate the necessity of reirradiation.

Increased risk of metastasis in patients with incidental use of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors: a retrospective analysis for multiple types of cancer based on electronic medical records

Renin-angiotensin system inhibitors have been shown to prevent cancer metastasis in experimental models, but there are limited data in clinical studies. We aimed to explore whether renin-angiotensin system inhibitors administered during the period of cancer resection can influence the subsequent development of metastasis by analyzing multiple individual types of primary cancers. A total of 4927 patients who had undergone resection of primary cancers at Kyushu University Hospital from 2009 to 2014 were enrolled and categorized into 3 groups based on the use of antihypertensive drugs: renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, other drugs, and none. Cumulative incidence functions of metastasis, treating death as a competing risk, were calculated, and the difference was examined among groups by Gray's test. Fine and Gray's model was employed to evaluate multivariate-adjusted hazards of incidental metastasis. In the multivariate-adjusted analysis, patients with skin and renal cancers showed statistically higher risks of metastasis with the use of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 5.81 [1.07-31.57] and 4.24 [1.71-10.53], respectively). Regarding pancreatic cancer, patients treated with antihypertensive drugs other than renin-angiotensin system inhibitors had a significantly increased risk of metastasis (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 3.31 [1.43-7.69]). Future larger studies are needed to ascertain whether renin-angiotensin system inhibitors can increase the risk of metastasis in skin and renal cancers, focusing on specific tissue types and potential factors associated with renin-angiotensin system inhibitor use.

Reliability of predictive models to support early decision making in the emergency department for patients with confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19: the Pescara Covid Hospital score

Background

The hospital management of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 can be hampered by heterogeneous characteristics at entry into the emergency department. We aimed to identify demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters associated with higher risks of hospitalisation, oxygen support, admission to intensive care and death, to build a risk score for clinical decision making at presentation to the emergency department.

Methods

We carried out a retrospective study using linked administrative data and laboratory parameters available in the initial phase of the pandemic at the emergency department of the regional reference hospital of Pescara, Abruzzo, Italy, March–June 2020. Logistic regression and Cox modelling were used to identify independent predictors for risk stratification. Validation was carried out collecting data from an extended timeframe covering other variants of concern, including Alpha (December 2020–January 2021) and Delta/Omicron (January–March 2022).

Results

Several clinical and laboratory parameters were significantly associated to the outcomes of interest, independently from age and gender. The strongest predictors were: for hospitalisation, monocyte distribution width ≥ 22 (4.09; 2.21–7.72) and diabetes (OR = 3.04; 1.09–9.84); for oxygen support: saturation < 95% (OR = 11.01; 3.75–41.14), lactate dehydrogenase≥237 U/L (OR = 5.93; 2.40–15.39) and lymphocytes< 1.2 × 10³/μL (OR = 4.49; 1.84–11.53); for intensive care, end stage renal disease (OR = 59.42; 2.43–2230.60), lactate dehydrogenase≥334 U/L (OR = 5.59; 2.46–13.84), D-dimer≥2.37 mg/L (OR = 5.18; 1.14–26.36), monocyte distribution width ≥ 25 (OR = 3.32; 1.39–8.50); for death, procalcitonin≥0.2 ng/mL (HR = 2.86; 1.95–4.19) and saturation < 96% (HR = 2.74; 1.76–4.28). Risk scores derived from predictive models using optimal thresholds achieved values of the area under the curve between 81 and 91%. Validation of the scoring algorithm for the evolving virus achieved accuracy between 65 and 84%.

Conclusions

A set of parameters that are normally available at emergency departments of any hospital can be used to stratify patients with COVID-19 at risk of severe conditions. The method shall be calibrated to support timely clinical decision during the first hours of admission with different variants of concern.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-08421-4.

Lymphocyte trajectories are associated with prognosis in critically ill patients: A convenient way to monitor immune status

Background

Immunosuppression is a risk factor for poor prognosis of critically ill patients, but current monitoring of the immune status in clinical practice is still inadequate. Absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) is not only a convenient biomarker for immune status monitoring but is also suitable for clinical application. In this study, we aimed to explore different trajectories of ALC, and evaluate their relationship with prognosis in critically ill patients.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled 10,619 critically ill patients admitted to a general intensive care unit (ICU) with 56 beds from February 2016 to May 2020. Dynamic ALC was defined as continuous ALC from before ICU admission to 5 days after ICU admission. Initial ALC was defined as the minimum ALC within 48 h after ICU admission. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to group critically ill patients according to dynamic ALC. Multivariate cox regression model was used to determine the independent association of trajectory endotypes with death and persistent inflammation, immunosuppression, catabolism syndrome (PICS).

Results

A total of 2022 critically ill patients were unsupervisedly divided into four endotypes based on dynamic ALC, including persistent lymphopenia endotype (n = 1,211; 58.5%), slowly rising endotype (n = 443; 22.6%), rapidly decreasing endotype (n = 281; 14.5%) and normal fluctuation endotype (n = 87; 4.4%). Among the four trajectory endotypes, the persistent lymphopenia endotype had the highest incidence of PICS (24.9%), hospital mortality (14.5%) and 28-day mortality (10.8%). In multivariate cox regression model, persistent lymphopenia was associated with increased risk of 28-day mortality (HR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.06–2.23), hospital mortality (HR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.20–2.29) and PICS (HR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.09–2.94), respectively. Sensitivity analysis further confirmed that the ALC trajectory model of non-infected patients and non-elderly patients can accurately distinguished 91 and 90% of critically ill patients into the same endotypes as the original model, respectively.

Conclusion

The ALC trajectory model is helpful for grouping critically ill patients, and early persistent lymphopenia is associated with poor prognosis. Notably, persistent lymphopenia may be a robust signal of immunosuppression in critically ill patients.

Treatment of advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the external auditory canal: Critical analysis of persistent failures in diagnosis and surgery with a competing-risk model

BACKGROUND

A series of temporal bone squamous cell carcinomas (TBSCCs) was analyzed with the aim of (i) better understanding the causes for the persistent high failure rate in advanced SCCs and (ii) discussing a possible way out from this stalemate in treatment.

METHODS

Forty-five TBSCCs consecutively treated surgically were reviewed.

RESULTS

The 5-year cumulative incidence for postoperative local recurrence was 41.8%. At multivariable analysis, pT3-4 stages were associated with eightfold relative incidence of developing local recurrence during follow-up (sHR = 9.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18-69.46, p = 0.034) and cause-specific death (sHR = 7.95, 95%CI = 1.01-62.27, p = 0.048).

CONCLUSIONS

The poor outcome in advanced TBSCC occurred because of local recurrence due to defective resection. The fundamental pitfall of surgery on advanced TBSCC appeared to be the insufficient knowledge of microscopic tumor growth in the different sites and subsites of the temporal bone. The serial histopathological study of the en bloc surgical specimen and autopsy temporal bones seems to represent a way to enhance our understanding of these tumors.

Performance of pre-transplant criteria in prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma progression and waitlist dropout

BACKGROUND & AIM

Liver transplantation (LT) selection models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have not been proposed to predict waitlist dropout because of tumour progression. The aim of this study was to compare the alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) model and other pre-LT models in their prediction of HCC dropout.

METHODS

A multicentre cohort study was conducted in 20 Latin American transplant centres, including 994 listed patients for LT with HCC from 2012 to 2018. Longitudinal tumour characteristics, and patterns of progression were recorded at time of listing, after treatments and at last follow-up over the waitlist period. Competing risk regression models were performed, and model's discrimination was compared estimating Harrell's adapted c-statistics.

RESULTS

HCC dropout rate was significantly higher in patients beyond (24% [95% CI 16-28]) compared to those within Milan criteria (8% [95% IC 5%-12%]; p < .0001), with a SHR of 3.01 [95% CI 2.03-4.47]), adjusted for waiting list time and bridging therapies (c-index 0.63 [95% CI 0.57; 0.69). HCC dropout rates were higher in patients with AFP scores >2 (adjusted SHR of 3.17 [CI 2.13-4.71]), c-index of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77; p = .09 vs Milan). Similar discrimination power for HCC dropout was observed between the AFP score and the Metroticket 2.0 model. In patients within Milan, an AFP score >2 points discriminated two populations with a higher risk of HCC dropout (SHR 1.68 [95% CI 1.08-2.61]).

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-transplant selection models similarly predicted HCC dropout. However, the AFP model can discriminate a higher risk of dropout among patients within Milan criteria.