Incidence, predictors and outcomes of acute-on-chronic liver failure in outpatients with cirrhosis

Infectious Complications of Portal Hypertension

Patients with cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension are at high risk of developing bacterial infections (BIs) that are the most common trigger of acute decompensation and acute-on-chronic liver failure. Furthermore, after decompensation, the risk of developing BIs further increases in an ominous vicious circle. BIs may be subtle, and they should be ruled out in all patients at admission and in case of deterioration. Timely administration of adequate empirical antibiotics is the cornerstone of treatment. Herein, we reviewed current evidences about pathogenesis, clinical implications and management of BIs in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

Chinese consensus on the management of liver cirrhosis

Liver cirrhosis, characterized by diffuse necrosis, insufficient regeneration of hepatocytes, angiogenesis, severe fibrosis, and the formation of pseudolobules, is a progressive, chronic liver disease induced by a variety of causes. It is clinically characterized by liver function damage and portal hypertension, and many complications may occur in its late stage. Based on the updated practice guidelines, expert consensuses, and research advances on the diagnosis and treatment of cirrhosis, the Chinese Society of Gastroenterology of Chinese Medical Association established the current consensus to standardize the clinical diagnosis and management of liver cirrhosis and guide clinical practice. This consensus contains 43 statements on the etiology, pathology and pathogenesis, clinical manifestations, major complications, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis, and chronic disease control of liver cirrhosis. Since several practice guidelines and expert consensuses on the complications of liver cirrhosis have been published, this consensus emphasizes the research progress of liver cirrhosis itself.

Outpatient mean arterial pressure: A potentially modifiable risk for acute kidney injury and death among patients with cirrhosis

Mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), which decreases as portal hypertension progresses, may be a modifiable risk factor among patients with cirrhosis. We included adults enrolled in the Functional Assessment in Liver Transplantation study. We completed latent class trajectory analyses to define MAP trajectories. We completed time-dependent Cox-regression analyses to test the association between outpatient MAP and 3 cirrhosis-related outcomes: (1) stage 2 acute kidney injury (AKI), defined as a ≥200% increase in serum creatinine from baseline; (2) a 5-point increase in the MELD-Na score, defined as the incidence of increase from initial MELD-Na; (3) waitlist mortality, defined as death on the waitlist. For each outcome, we defined MAP cut points by determining the maximally selected Log-rank statistic after univariable Cox-regression analyses. Among the 1786 patients included in this analysis, our latent class trajectory analyses identified 3 specific outpatient MAP trajectories: "stable-low," "stable-high," and "increasing-to-decreasing." However, >80% of patients were in a "stable-low" trajectory. We found in adjusted analyses that outpatient MAP was associated with each of our outcomes: Stage 2 AKI (adjusted hazard ratio 0.88 per 10 mm Hg increase in MAP [95% CI: 0.79-0.99]); 5-point increase in MELD-Na (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.91 [95% CI: 0.86-0.96]; waitlist mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.89 [95% CI: 0.81-0.96]). For each outcome, we found that an outpatient MAP of 82 mm Hg was most associated with outcomes ( p <0.05 for all). Our study informs the association between outpatient MAP and cirrhosis-related outcomes. These findings, coupled with the identification of specific thresholds, lay the foundation for the trial of targeted outpatient MAP modulation in patients with cirrhosis.

APASL clinical practice guidelines on the management of acute kidney injury in acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome that is characterized by the rapid development of organ failures predisposing these patients to a high risk of short-term early death. The main causes of organ failure in these patients are bacterial infections and systemic inflammation, both of which can be severe. For the majority of these patients, a prompt liver transplant is still the only effective course of treatment. Kidneys are one of the most frequent extrahepatic organs that are affected in patients with ACLF, since acute kidney injury (AKI) is reported in 22.8-34% of patients with ACLF. Approach and management of kidney injury could improve overall outcomes in these patients. Importantly, patients with ACLF more frequently have stage 3 AKI with a low rate of response to the current treatment modalities. The objective of the present position paper is to critically review and analyze the published data on AKI in ACLF, evolve a consensus, and provide recommendations for early diagnosis, pathophysiology, prevention, and management of AKI in patients with ACLF. In the absence of direct evidence, we propose expert opinions for guidance in managing AKI in this very challenging group of patients and focus on areas of future research. This consensus will be of major importance to all hepatologists, liver transplant surgeons, and intensivists across the globe.

Definitions, Etiologies, and Outcomes of Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a major public health concern. We aimed to assess the definitions, etiologic spectrum, organ failure (OF), and outcomes of ACLF globally.

METHODS

Three databases were searched for studies on ACLF from 1990 until September 2022. Information regarding definitions, acute precipitants, underlying chronic liver disease (CLD), OF, and mortality were extracted. Meta-analyses were performed for pooled prevalence rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) using random-effects model for each definition of ACLF.

RESULTS

Of the 11,451 studies identified, 114 articles (142 cohorts encompassing 210,239 patients) met the eligibility criteria. Most studies (53.2%) used the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) definition, followed by Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) (33.3%). Systemic infection was the major acute precipitant, and alcohol use was the major cause of CLD in EASL-defined studies, whereas alcohol was both the major acute precipitant and cause of CLD in APASL-defined studies. Liver failure was the major OF in APASL-based studies, whereas renal failure was predominant in EASL-based studies. Thirty-day mortality varied across definitions: APASL: 38.9%, 95% CI, 31.2%-46.9%; EASL: 47.9%, 95% CI, 42.2%-53.5%; and NACSELD: 52.2%, 95% CI, 51.9%-52.5%. Diagnostic overlap between definitions ranged from 7.7% to 80.2%. Meta-regression suggested that the World Health Organization region influenced 30-day mortality in studies using EASL definition.

CONCLUSIONS

Heterogeneity in the definition of ACLF proposed by different expert societies and regional preferences in its use result in differences in clinical phenotype and outcomes. A uniform definition would enhance the comparability and interpretation of global data.

Acute and non-acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis (47/130)

In the traditional view, the occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications, such as hepatic encephalopathy, formation of ascites or variceal haemorrhage, marks the transition to the decompensated stage of cirrhosis. Although the dichotomous stratification into a compensated and decompensated state reflects a prognostic water-shed moment and remains to hold its prognostic validity, it represents an oversimplification of clinical realities. A broadening understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms underpinning decompensation have led to the identification of distinct prognostic subgroups, associated with different clinical courses following decompensation. Data provided by the PREDICT study uncovered three distinct sub-phenotypes of acute decompensation (AD). Moreover, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has been established as a distinct clinical entity for many years, which is associated with a high short-term mortality. Recently, non-acute decompensation (NAD) has been proposed as a distinct pathway of decompensation, complementing current concepts of the spectrum of decompensation. In contrast to AD, NAD is characterized by a slow and progressive development of complications, which are often presented at first decompensation and/or in patients in an earlier stage of chronic liver disease. Successful treatment of AD or NAD may lead to a clinical stabilization or even the concept of recompensation. This review aims to provide an overview on current concepts of decompensation and to delineate recent advances in our clinical and pathophysiological understanding.

Acute decompensation of cirrhosis versus acute-on-chronic liver failure: What are the clinical implications?

It is essential to identify the subgroup of patients who experience poorer outcomes in order to adapt clinical management effectively. In the context of liver disease, the earlier the identification occurs, the greater the range of therapeutic options that can be offered to patients. In the past, patients with acute decompensation (AD) of chronic liver disease were treated as a homogeneous group, with emphasis on identifying those at the highest risk of death. In the last 15 years, a differentiation has emerged between acute-on-chronic liver failure syndrome (ACLF) and AD, primarily due to indications that the latter is linked to a less favorable short-term prognosis. Nevertheless, the definition of ACLF varies among the different knowledge societies, making it challenging to assess its true impact compared with AD. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to provide a detailed analysis emphasizing the critical importance of identifying ACLF in the field of advanced liver disease. We will discuss the differences between Eastern and Western approaches, particularly in relation to the occurrence of liver failure and disease onset. Common characteristics, such as the dynamic nature of the disease course, will be highlighted. Finally, we will focus on two key clinical implications arising from these considerations: the prevention of ACLF before its onset and the clinical management strategies once it develops, including liver transplantation and withdrawal of care.

The polymorphic variant of SerpinB3 (SerpinB3-PD) is associated with faster cirrhosis decompensation

BACKGROUND

SerpinB3 is a cysteine protease inhibitor involved in liver disease progression due to its proinflammatory and profibrogenic properties. The polymorphic variant SerpinB3-PD (SB3-PD), presents a substitution in its reactive centre loop, determining the gain of function.

AIMS

To disclose the clinical characteristics of a cohort of patients with cirrhosis in relation to the presence of SB3-PD and to assess the effect of this genetic variant on fibrogenic and inflammatory cytokines in vitro.

METHODS

We assessed SB3 polymorphism in 90 patients with cirrhosis, prospectively followed up in our referral centre. We used HepG2 and HuH-7 cells transfected to overexpress either wild-type SB3 (SB3-WT) or SB3-PD to assess their endogenous effect, while LX2 and THP-1 cells were treated with exogenous SB3-WT or SB3-PD proteins.

RESULTS

Patients carrying SB3-PD had more severe portal hypertension and higher MELD scores, than patients carrying SB3-WT. In multivariate analysis, SB3-PD was an independent predictor of cirrhosis complications. Patients with SB3-PD polymorphism presented with more severe liver fibrosis and inflammatory features. Hepatoma cells overexpressing SB3-PD showed higher TGF-β1 expression than controls. The addition of recombinant SB3-PD induced an up-regulation of TGF-β1 in LX2 cells and a more prominent inflammatory profile in THP-1 cells, compared to the effect of SB3-WT protein.

CONCLUSIONS

The polymorphic variant SB3-PD is highly effective in determining activation of TGF-β1 and inflammation in vitro. Patients with cirrhosis who carry SB3-PD polymorphism may be more prone to develop severe liver disease progression. However, further validation studies are warranted to support the in vivo relevance of this polymorphism.

Predictors of clinical trajectories of patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis. An external validation of the PREDICT study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The PREDICT study recently showed that acutely decompensated (AD) patients with cirrhosis can present three different clinical phenotypes in the 90 days after admission: (1) pre-ACLF, developing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF); (2) unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), being re-admitted for AD without ACLF and (3) stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), not presenting readmission or ACLF. This study aimed to externally validate the existence of these three distinct trajectories and to identify predictors for the occurrence of each trajectory.

METHODS

Baseline data, 3-month ACLF and readmission incidence and 1-year survival were analysed in a prospective cohort of patients admitted for AD. A multinomial multivariable model was used to evaluate the association between baseline features and clinical trajectories.

RESULTS

Of the 311 patients enrolled, 55% met the criteria for SDC, 18% for UDC and 27% for pre-ACLF, presenting a significantly different 1-year mortality: pre-ACLF 65%, UDC 46%, SDC 21% (p < .001). The presence of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) was associated with UDC (p = .043), while the absence of ascites to SDC (p = .017). Among laboratory parameters, an increase in MELD-Na (p = .001) and C-reactive protein (p = .009) and a decrease in haemoglobin (p = .004) and albumin (p = .008) levels were associated with pre-ACLF.

CONCLUSION

The present study confirms that AD patients have three different clinical trajectories with different mortality rates. Besides the severity of cirrhosis, the association with C-reactive protein supports the predominant role of systemic inflammation in ACLF pathophysiology. Finally, HE is associated with the UDC phenotype highlighting the need for better management of this complication after discharge.

ACG Clinical Guideline: Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease

ABSTRACT

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is the most common cause of advanced hepatic disease and frequent indication for liver transplantation worldwide. With harmful alcohol use as the primary risk factor, increasing alcohol use over the past decade has resulted in rapid growth of the ALD-related healthcare burden. The spectrum of ALD ranges from early asymptomatic liver injury to advanced disease with decompensation and portal hypertension. Compared with those with other etiologies of liver disease, patients with ALD progress faster and more often present at an advanced stage. A unique phenotype of advanced disease is alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) presenting with rapid onset or worsening of jaundice, and acute on chronic liver failure in severe forms conveying a 1-month mortality risk of 20%-50%. The model for end stage disease score is the most accurate score to stratify AH severity (>20 defined as severe disease). Corticosteroids are currently the only available therapeutic with proven efficacy for patients with severe AH, providing survival benefit at 1 month in 50%-60% of patients. Abstinence of alcohol use, a crucial determinant of long-term outcomes, is challenging to achieve in ALD patients with concurrent alcohol use disorder (AUD). As patients with ALD are rarely treated for AUD, strategies are needed to overcome barriers to AUD treatment in patients with ALD and to promote a multidisciplinary integrated care model with hepatology, addiction medicine providers, and social workers to comprehensively manage the dual pathologies of liver disease and of AUD. Liver transplantation, a definitive treatment option in patients with advanced cirrhosis, should be considered in selected patients with AH, who are unresponsive to medical therapy and have a low risk of relapse to posttransplant alcohol use. Level of evidence and strength of recommendations were evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations system. This guideline was developed under the American College of Gastroenterology Practice Parameters Committee.

Galad Score as a Prognostic Marker for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for more than 75% of primary liver cancers, which are the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths. The GALAD (gender, age, AFP-L3, AFP, and des-carboxy-prothrombin) score is a diagnostic tool developed based on gender, age, alpha-fetoprotein, alpha-fetoprotein L3, and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin, originally designed as a diagnostic tool for HCC in high-risk patients.

METHODS

We analyzed 212 patients with and without cirrhosis. The population study was divided into patients with liver cirrhosis without evidence of HCC at the time of serum sample collection for GALAD score determination and patients with liver cirrhosis and a confirmed diagnosis of HCC at the time of serum sample collection for GALAD score determination. Patients were followed up until death or liver transplantation. The association between variables and HCC mortality risk was performed, and the results were presented as hazard ratio (HR). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the performance of the GALAD HCC diagnosis. The survival probability was explored using the non-parametric test, and the equality of survival amongst categories was assessed with the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Biomarkers were higher in the HCC group compared to cirrhosis. Kaplan-Meier survival probability analysis for individual GALAD categories revealed that a high GALAD level was associated with decreased survival during follow-up, and the difference between the curves was statistically significant (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the GALAD score has promise as a prognostic tool, with implications for improving patient management and treatment strategies for HCC.

Severe anemia is associated with increased short-term and long-term mortality in patients hospitalized with cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The relationship between anemia and the outcome of patients with cirrhosis is not completely clear. Therefore, we performed this large-scale epidemiological study to investigate the prevalence and severity of anemia in patients with cirrhosis and acute decompensation or liver injury and how anemia impacts short-term and long-term outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis and acute decompensation (AD) or acute liver injury (ALI) were enrolled in the Chinese AcuTe on CHronic LIver FailurE (CATCH-LIFE) studies, which consisted of two large, multicenter, prospective, observational cohorts between January 2015 and December 2016 and July 2018 and January 2019. We conducted data analysis on the prevalence of anemia and determined the relationship between anemia and prognosis.

RESULTS

Among 1979 patients, 1389 (70.2%) had anemia, among whom 599 (41.3%) had mild anemia, 595 (15.8%) had moderate anemia and 195 (2.4%) had severe anemia. A linear association between hemoglobin level and 90-day or 1-year LT-free mortality was shown, and a 10 g/L decrease in hemoglobin level was associated with a 6.8% extra risk of 90-day death and a 5.7% extra risk of 1-year death. Severe anemia was an independent risk factor for 90-day [HR=1.649 (1.100, 2.473), p=0.016] and 1-year LT-free mortality [HR=1.610 (1.159, 2.238), p=0.005]. Multinomial logistic regression analysis further identified that severe anemia was significantly associated with post-28-day mortality but not within-28-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Anemia is common in patients with cirrhosis admitted for acute events. Severe anemia was associated with poor 90-day and 1-year prognoses in these patients.

Review article: Emerging and current management of acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinically and pathophysiologically distinct condition from acutely decompensated cirrhosis and is characterised by systemic inflammation, extrahepatic organ failure, and high short-term mortality.

AIMS

To provide a narrative review of the diagnostic criteria, prognosis, epidemiology, and general management principles of ACLF. Four specific interventions that are explored in detail are intravenous albumin, extracorporeal liver assist devices, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, and liver transplantation.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases for articles published up to July 2023.

RESULTS

Approximately 35% of hospital inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis have ACLF. There is significant heterogeneity in the criteria used to diagnose ACLF; different definitions identify different phenotypes with varying mortality. Criteria established by the European Association for the Study of the Liver were developed in prospective patient cohorts and are, to-date, the most well validated internationally. Systemic haemodynamic instability, renal dysfunction, coagulopathy, neurological dysfunction, and respiratory failure are key considerations when managing ACLF in the intensive care unit. Apart from liver transplantation, there are no accepted evidence-based treatments for ACLF, but several different approaches are under investigation.

CONCLUSION

The recognition of ACLF as a distinct entity from acutely decompensated cirrhosis has allowed for better patient stratification in clinical settings, facilitating earlier engagement with the intensive care unit and liver transplantation teams. Research priorities over the next decade should focus on exploring novel treatment strategies with a particular focus on which, when, and how patients with ACLF should be treated.

Compensated liver cirrhosis: Natural course and disease-modifying strategies

Compensated liver cirrhosis (CLC) is defined as cirrhosis with one or more decompensating events, such as ascites, variceal haemorrhage, or hepatic encephalopathy. Patients with CLC are largely asymptomatic with preserved hepatic function. The transition from CLC to decompensated cirrhosis occurs as a result of a complex interaction between multiple predisposing and precipitating factors. The first decompensation event in CLC patients is considered a significant turning point in the progression of cirrhosis, as it signals a drastic decline in median survival rates from 10-12 years to only 1-2 years. Furthermore, early cirrhosis has the potential to regress as liver fibrosis is a dynamic condition. With the advent of effective non-invasive tools for detecting hepatic fibrosis, more and more patients with CLC are currently being recognised. This offers clinicians a unique opportunity to properly manage such patients in order to achieve cirrhosis regression or, at the very least, prevent its progression. There are numerous emerging approaches for preventing or delaying decompensation in CLC patients. A growing body of evidence indicates that treating the underlying cause can lead to cirrhosis regression, and the use of non-selective beta-blockers can prevent decompensation by lowering portal hypertension. Additionally, addressing various cofactors (such as obesity, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, and alcoholism) and precipitating factors (such as infection, viral hepatitis, and hepatotoxic drugs) that have a detrimental impact on the natural course of cirrhosis may benefit patients with CLC. However, high-quality data must be generated through well-designed and adequately powered randomised clinical trials to validate these disease-modifying techniques for CLC patients. This article discussed the natural history of CLC, risk factors for its progression, and therapeutic approaches that could alter the trajectory of CLC evolution and improve outcomes.

Clinical features and prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with recompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

There are few studies on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with recompensated cirrhosis. This study was aimed to investigate the clinical features of ACLF patients with recompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 461 ACLF patients were enrolled and divided into three groups: compensated, recompensated, and decompensated cirrhosis with ACLF. The baseline clinical data and 1-year survival rates were compared among the three groups.

RESULTS

Compared with the decompensated group, in the recompensated group, the levels of hemoglobin, albumin, and serum sodium were significantly higher and the white blood cell count, international normalized ratio, and incidence of respiratory failure were significantly lower; there were no evident differences in other organ failures. The proportion of patients with ACLF grade 3 and 1-year survival rates significantly differed between the two groups. Conversely, compared with the compensated group, in the recompensated group, the platelet and total bilirubin levels were significantly lower and the proportion of patients with ACLF grade 1 was significantly higher. However, other clinical indicators or 1-year survival rates did not significantly differ between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with patients who developed ACLF with decompensated cirrhosis, those who developed ACLF with recompensated cirrhosis had a less severe condition, lower incidence of respiratory failure, and better 1-year prognosis. However, the baseline clinical features and prognosis were similar between ACLF patients with recompensated and compensated cirrhosis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Chinese clinical trials registry: ChiCTR1900021539.

Mechanisms and treatment approaches for ACLF

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a life-threatening syndrome characterized by decompensation of cirrhosis, severe systemic inflammation and organ failures. ACLF is frequently triggered by intra- and/or extrahepatic insults, such as bacterial infections, alcohol-related hepatitis or flares of hepatic viruses. The imbalance between systemic inflammation and immune tolerance causes organ failures through the following mechanisms: (i) direct damage of immune cells/mediators; (ii) worsening of circulatory dysfunction resulting in organ hypoperfusion and (iii) metabolic alterations with prioritization of energetic substrates for inflammation and peripheral organ 'energetic crisis'. Currently, the management of ACLF includes the support of organ failures, the identification and treatment of precipitating factors and expedited assessment for liver transplantation (LT). Early LT should be considered in patients with ACLF grade 3, who are unlikely to recover with the available treatments and have a mortality rate > 70% at 28 days. However, the selection of transplant candidates and their prioritization on the LT waiting list need standardization. Future challenges in the ACLF field include a better understanding of pathophysiological mechanisms leading to inflammation and organ failures, the development of specific treatments for the disease and personalized treatment approaches. Herein, we reviewed the current knowledge and future perspectives on mechanisms and treatment of ACLF.

A Practical Model for Predicting Esophageal Variceal Rebleeding in Patients with Hepatitis B-Associated Cirrhosis

Background

Variceal rebleeding is a significant and potentially life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. Unfortunately, currently, there is no reliable method for stratifying high-risk patients. Liver stiffness measurements (LSM) have been shown to have a predictive value in identifying complications associated with portal hypertension, including first-time bleeding. However, there is a lack of evidence to confirm that LSM is reliable in predicting variceal rebleeding. The objective of our study was to evaluate the ability of generating a extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm model to improve the prediction of variceal rebleeding.

Methods

This retrospective analysis examined a cohort of 284 patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis. XGBoost models were developed using laboratory data, LSM, and imaging data to predict the risk of rebleeding in the patients. In addition, we compared the XGBoost models with traditional logistic regression (LR) models. We evaluated and compared the two models using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and other model performance parameters. Lastly, we validated the models using nomograms and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

During a median follow-up of 66.6 weeks, 72 patients experienced rebleeding, including 21 (7.39%) and 61 (21.48%) patients who rebleed within 6 weeks and 1 year, respectively. In brief, the AUC of the LR models in predicting rebleeding at 6 weeks and 1 year was 0.828 (0.759-0.897) and 0.799 (0.738-0.860), respectively. In contrast, the accuracy of the XGBoost model in predicting rebleeding at 6 weeks and 1 year was 0.985 (0.907-0.731) and 0.931 (0.806-0.935), respectively. LSM and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels differed significantly between the rebleeding and nonrebleeding groups, with LSM being a reliable predictor in those models. The XGBoost models outperformed the LR models in predicting rebleeding within 6 weeks and 1 year, as demonstrated by the ROC and DCA curves.

Conclusion

The XGBoost algorithm model can achieve higher accuracy than the LR model in predicting rebleeding, making it a clinically beneficial tool. This implies that the XGBoost model is better suited for predicting the risk of esophageal variceal rebleeding in patients.

Spur cells in liver cirrhosis are predictive of acute-on-chronic liver failure and liver-related mortality regardless of severe anaemia

Chronic anaemia in advanced liver disease is a frequent finding. The aim was to explore the clinical impact of spur cell anaemia, a rare entity typically associated with end-stage of the disease. One-hundred and nineteen patients (73.9% males) with liver cirrhosis of any etiology were included. Patients with bone marrow diseases, nutrients deficiencies and hepatocellular carcinoma were excluded. In all patients, a blood sample was collected to check for the presence of spur cells on blood smear. A complete blood biochemical panel was recorded together with Child-Pugh (CP) score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. For each patients, clinically relevant events, such as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and 1 year liver-related mortality, were registered. Patients were then grouped according to the percentage of spur cells at smear (> 5%, 1-5%, < 1%). Severe anaemia was defined as haemoglobin levels lower than 8 g/dL. 9.2% of subjects had > 5% spur cells, only 2 had evidence of haemolysis. In patients with > 5% spur cells, haemoglobin and albumin were lower compared with the other sub-group, while MELD score, CP score, International Normalized Ratio, ferritin, creatinine and unconjugated bilirubin were higher. Patients with more spur cells were more decompensated and developed more frequently ACLF. ACLF and liver-related mortality were significantly and independently associated with the presence of > 5% spur cells but not with baseline severe anaemia. Cirrhotic patients have a fairly high prevalence of spur cells, not always associated with severe haemolytic anaemia. The presence of spur red cells is per se associated with a worse prognosis and, therefore, should be always evaluated to prioritize patients for intensive management and eventually liver transplantation.

Definition, diagnosis and epidemiology of acute-on-chronic liver failure

This narrative review addresses the definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure, a condition associated with high short-term mortality in patients with chronic liver disease and/or cirrhosis. We provide two major points of view: the East and the West perspective. Both definitions vary regarding the underlying patient population and organ failure(s) definition. Nevertheless, all the definitions have their clinical utility: from the core concept of having the "liver" as a conditio sine qua non, the syndrome cannot exist (Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver); a data-driven, robust definition (European Association for the Study of the Liver); a bedside tool that can quickly identify patients at high risk of dying (North American Consortium for the Study of End-stage Liver Disease [NACSELD]). In each section, we provide the overall definitions, the criteria of organ failure(s), and some epidemiological data illustrating how these apply in each area of the world.

Management of the acute on chronic liver failure in the intensive care unit

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) reflects the development of organ failure(s) in a patient with cirrhosis and is associated with high short-term mortality. Given that ACLF has many different 'phenotypes', medical management needs to take into account the relationship between precipitating insult, organ systems involved and underlying physiology of chronic liver disease/cirrhosis. The goals of intensive care management of patients suffering ACLF are to rapidly recognize and treat inciting events (e.g. infection, severe alcoholic hepatitis and bleeding) and to aggressively support failing organ systems to ensure that patients may successfully undergo liver transplantation or recovery. Management of these patients is complex since they are prone to develop new organ failures and infectious or bleeding complications. ICU therapy parallels that applied in the general ICU population in some complications but differs in others. Given that liver transplantation in ACLF is an emerging and evolving field, multidisciplinary teams with expertise in critical care and transplant medicine best accomplish management of the critically ill ACLF patient. The focus of this review is to identify the common complications of ACLF and to describe the proper management in critically ill patients awaiting liver transplantation in our centres, including organ support, prognostic assessment and how to assess when recovery is unlikely.

Association between statin exposure and short-term mortality in patients with high-grade acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality for patients with cirrhosis. Prior literature suggests that statin exposure may reduce the likelihood of ACLF events. However, it is unclear if statin exposure is associated with ACLF-related mortality. This study sought to determine the association between statin use and short-term mortality among patients hospitalised with ACLF.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between 2008 and 2021 and hospitalised with high-grade (2 or 3) ACLF. Patients were stratified into those with and without continuous statin exposure for at least 90 days prior to hospitalisation. Multivariable logistic regression models were created to determine the adjusted association between statin exposure and 28-day and 90-day mortality. Categorical statin dose exposure, converted to simvastatin equivalents, was also explored.

Results

A total of 11,731 patients with cirrhosis hospitalised with Grade 2 or 3 ACLF were included in the analytic cohort, 26% of whom had statin exposure. In adjusted logistic regression models, statin use was associated with 18% lower odds of ACLF-related 28-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0.93, p = 0.001) and 24% lower odds of 90-day mortality (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68-0.86, p <0.001). Increasing statin dose exposure was also associated with further reductions in 90-day mortality (e.g. OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.70-0.93 for 10-40 mg vs. 0 mg and OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.60-0.87 for 80 mg vs. 0 mg, p <0.001).

Conclusions

In this large, retrospective cohort study, statin exposure before high-grade ACLF hospitalisation was associated with reduced odds of 28-day and 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis. A statin dose-dependent reduction in 90-day ACLF-related mortality was also observed.

Impact and Implications

Statins have been identified as a class of medications with potential beneficial effects for patients with cirrhosis. In this large, retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who seek care at the Veterans Health Administration, statin use was associated with a decrease in short term (28-day and 90-day) mortality as a result of acute-on-chronic liver failure. Future prospective studies are needed to further clarify the relative safety and efficacy of statin therapy in reducing morbidity and mortality associated with acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis.

Hematological Abnormalities in Cirrhosis: A Narrative Review

Liver cirrhosis remains a major public health issue. Liver fibrosis leading to cirrhosis is the terminal stage of various chronic liver diseases. Inflammatory cytokines are involved in the pathogenesis. Patients with cirrhosis often have hematological abnormalities, such as anemia and thrombocytopenia, which have multifactorial etiologies. Anemia in cirrhosis could be related to bleeding leading to iron deficiency anemia or other nutritional anemia such as vitamin B12 and folate deficiency. The pathophysiology of thrombocytopenia in liver cirrhosis has been postulated to range from splenic sequestration to bone marrow suppression from toxic agents, such as alcohol. It often complicates management due to the risk of bleeding with severely low platelets. This review aimed to highlight pathogenesis of liver cirrhosis, hematological abnormalities in liver cirrhosis, and their clinical significance.

Low haemoglobin level predicts early hospital readmission in patients with cirrhosis and acute decompensation

Background & Aims

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis present frequent hospitalisations with a relevant clinical and socio-economic impact. This study aims to characterise unscheduled readmissions up to 1-year follow-up and identify predictors of 30-day readmission after an index hospitalisation for acute decompensation (AD).

Methods

We performed a secondary analysis of a prospectively collected cohort of patients admitted for AD. Laboratory and clinical data at admission and at discharge were collected. Timing and causes of unscheduled readmissions and mortality were recorded up to 1 year.

Results

A total of 329 patients with AD were included in the analysis. Acute-on-chronic liver failure was diagnosed in 19% of patients at admission or developed in an additional 9% of patients during the index hospitalisation. During the 1-year follow-up, 182 patients (55%) were rehospitalised and 98 (30%) more than once. The most frequent causes of readmission were hepatic encephalopathy (36%), ascites (22%), and infection (21%). Cumulative incidence of readmission was 20% at 30 days, 39% at 90 days, and 63% at 1 year. Fifty-four patients were readmitted for emergent liver-related causes within 30 days. Early readmission was associated with a higher 1-year mortality (47 vs. 32%, p = 0.037). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that haemoglobin (Hb) ≤8.7 g/dl (hazard ratio 2.63 [95% CI 1.38-5.02], p = 0.003) and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium score (MELD-Na) >16 at discharge (hazard ratio 2.23 [95% CI 1.27-3.93], p = 0.005), were independent predictors of early readmission. In patients with MELD-Na >16 at discharge, the presence of Hb ≤8.7 g/dl doubles the risk of early rehospitalisation (44% vs. 22%, p = 0.02).

Conclusion

Besides MELD-Na, a low Hb level (Hb ≤8.7 g/dl) at discharge emerged as a new risk factor for early readmission, contributing to identification of patients who require closer surveillance after discharge.

Impact and Implications

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis face frequent hospitalisations. In the present study, type and causes of readmissions were analysed during 1-year follow-up in patients discharged after the index hospitalisation for an acute decompensation of the disease. Early (30-day) liver-related readmission was associated with higher 1-year mortality. The model for end-stage liver disease-sodium score and low haemoglobin at discharge were identified as independent risk factors for early readmissions. Haemoglobin emerged as a new easy-to-use parameter associated with early readmission warranting further investigation.

Role of Terlipressin in Patients With Hepatorenal Syndrome-Acute Kidney Injury Admitted to the ICU: A Substudy of the CONFIRM Trial

This study assessed the potential advantages of treating hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (HRS-AKI) with terlipressin versus placebo in the ICU setting.

DESIGN

Patients were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive terlipressin or placebo for up to 14 days.

SETTING

A retrospective analysis of data from the phase III CONFIRM study.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients with HRS-AKI admitted to the ICU.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

In this substudy, we evaluated outcomes of the ICU stay and the need for organ support, including renal replacement therapy (RRT).

RESULTS

Among 300 patients with HRS-AKI from the CONFIRM study, 45 were treated in the ICU (terlipressin, 31/199 [16%]; placebo, 14/101 [14%]). On ICU admission, baseline demographics were similar across treatment arms, including severity of liver dysfunction. Among patients alive at the end of the ICU stay, those randomized to terlipressin had a significantly shorter median length of ICU stay than placebo (4 vs 11 d; p < 0.001). Terlipressin-treated patients had a significantly larger improvement in renal function from baseline versus placebo (-0.7 vs +0.2 mg/dL; p = 0.001), including when accounting for the interaction between treatment and day-of-patient-admission to the ICU (-0.7 vs +0.9 mg/dL; p < 0.001). Cumulative requirement for RRT through day 90 was improved in the terlipressin arm versus placebo (10/31 [32%] vs 8/14 [57%]; p = 0.12), although not significantly. Of 13 patients who received a liver transplant, five out of five (100%) in the placebo arm needed RRT through day 90 versus five out of eight (63%) in the terlipressin arm.

CONCLUSIONS

In this subanalysis of CONFIRM, patients admitted to the ICU with HRS-AKI who received terlipressin were more likely to achieve renal function improvement, based on serum creatinine changes by the end of treatment, and had significantly shorter lengths of ICU stay than patients randomized to the placebo arm.

Implications of anaemia and response to anaemia treatment on outcomes in patients with cirrhosis

Background & Aims

Anaemia is frequently observed in patients with cirrhosis and was identified as a predictor of adverse outcomes, such as increased mortality and occurrence of acute-on-chronic liver failure. To date, the possible effects of iron supplementation on these adverse outcomes are not well described. We therefore aimed to assess the role of iron supplementation in patients with cirrhosis and its capability to improve prognosis.

Methods

Laboratory diagnostics were performed in consecutive outpatients with cirrhosis admitted between July 2018 and December 2019 to the University Hospital Essen. Associations with transplant-free survival were assessed in regression models.

Results

A total of 317 outpatients with cirrhosis were included, of whom 61 received a liver transplant (n = 19) or died (n = 42). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.33, 95% CI [1.59, 6.99], p = 0.001), model for end-stage liver disease score (HR = 1.19, 95% CI [1.11, 1.27], p <0.001) and the increase of haemoglobin levels within 6 months (ΔHb6) (HR = 0.72, 95% CI [0.63, 0.83], p <0.001) were associated with transplant-free survival. Regarding the prediction of haemoglobin increase, intake of rifaximin (beta = 0.50, SD beta = 0.19, p = 0.007) and iron supplementation (beta = 0.79, SD beta = 0.26, p = 0.003) were significant predictors in multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

An increase of haemoglobin levels is associated with improvement of transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis. Because the prediction of haemoglobin increase significantly depends on rifaximin and iron supplementation, application of these two medications can have an important impact on the outcome of these patients.

Impact and implications

Anaemia is very common in patients with cirrhosis and is known to be a predictor of negative outcomes, but little is known about the effect of iron substitution in these individuals. In our cohort, increase of haemoglobin levels improved transplant-free survival of patients with cirrhosis. The increase of haemoglobin levels was mainly induced by iron supplementation and was even stronger in the case of concomitant use of iron and rifaximin.

Clinical trial registration

UME-ID-10042.

Impact of COVID-19 on Patients with Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of COVID-19 infection on patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) in terms of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), chronic liver failure acute decompensation (CLIF-AD), hospitalization, and mortality. In this retrospective study, we analyzed patients with known DLC who were admitted to the Gastroenterology Department with COVID-19. Clinical and biochemical data were obtained to compare the development of ACLF, CLIF-AD, days of hospitalization, and the presence of independent factors of mortality in comparison with a non-COVID-19 DLC group. All patients enrolled were not vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2. Variables used in statistical analyses were obtained at the time of hospital admission. A total of 145 subjects with previously diagnosed liver cirrhosis were included; 45/145 (31%) of the subjects were confirmed with COVID-19, among which 45% had pulmonary injury. The length of hospital stay (days) was significantly longer in patients with pulmonary injury compared to those without (p = 0.0159). In the group of patients with COVID-19 infection, the proportion of associated infections was significantly higher (p = 0.0041). Additionally, the mortality was 46.7% in comparison with only 15% in the non-COVID-19 group (p = 0.0001). Pulmonary injury was associated with death during admission in multivariate analysis in both the ACLF (p < 0.0001) and the non-ACLF (p = 0.0017) group. COVID-19 significantly influenced disease progression in patients with DLC in terms of associated infections, hospitalization length, and mortality.

Cirrhosis and Portal Hypertension

Ascites is the most common complication of cirrhosis, with 5-year mortality reaching 30%. Complications of ascites (ie, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatorenal syndrome, recurrent/refractory ascites, and hepatic hydrothorax) further worsen survival. The development of ascites is driven by portal hypertension, systemic inflammation, and splanchnic arterial vasodilation. Etiologic treatment and nonselective beta-blockers can prevent ascites in compensated cirrhosis. The treatment of ascites is currently based on the management of fluid overload (eg, diuretics, sodium restriction, and/or paracenteses). In selected patients, long-term albumin use, norfloxacin prophylaxis, and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt reduce the risk of further decompensation and improve survival.

Haemostasis in cirrhosis: Understanding destabilising factors during acute decompensation

Hospitalised patients with decompensated cirrhosis are in a rebalanced haemostatic state due to a parallel decline in both pro- and anti-haemostatic pathways. However, this rebalanced haemostatic state is highly susceptible to perturbations and may easily tilt towards hypocoagulability and bleeding. Acute kidney injury, bacterial infections and sepsis, and progression from acute decompensation to acute-on-chronic liver failure are associated with additional alterations of specific haemostatic pathways and a higher risk of bleeding. Unfortunately, there is no single laboratory method that can accurately stratify an individual patient's bleeding risk and guide pre-procedural prophylaxis. A better understanding of haemostatic alterations during acute illness would lead to more rational and individualised management of hospitalised patients with decompensated cirrhosis. This review will outline the latest findings on haemostatic alterations driven by acute kidney injury, bacterial infections/sepsis, and acute-on-chronic liver failure in these difficult-to-treat patients and provide evidence supporting more tailored management of bleeding risk.

The potential role of machine learning in modelling advanced chronic liver disease

The use of artificial intelligence is rapidly increasing in medicine to support clinical decision making mostly through diagnostic and prediction models. Such models derive from huge databases (big data) including a large variety of health-related individual patient data (input) and the corresponding diagnosis and/or outcome (labels). Various types of algorithms (e.g. neural networks) based on powerful computational ability (machine), allow to detect the relationship between input and labels (learning). More complex algorithms, like recurrent neural network can learn from previous as well as actual input (deep learning) and are used for more complex tasks like imaging analysis and personalized (bespoke) medicine. The prompt availability of big data makes that artificial intelligence can provide rapid answers to questions that would require years of traditional clinical research. It may therefore be a key tool to overcome several major gaps in the model of advanced chronic liver disease, mostly transition from mild to clinically significant portal hypertension, the impact of acute decompensation and the role of further decompensation and treatment efficiency. However, several limitations of artificial intelligence should be overcome before its application in clinical practice. Assessment of the risk of bias, understandability of the black boxes developing the models and models' validation are the most important areas deserving clarification for artificial intelligence to be widely accepted from physicians and patients.

CLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C scores for the prognostication of acute-on-chronic liver failure and acute decompensation of cirrhosis: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome characterized by decompensation in individuals with chronic liver disease, generally secondary to one or more extra-hepatic organ failures, implying an elevated mortality rate. Acute decompensation (AD) is the term used for one or more significant consequences of liver disease in a short time and is the most common reason for hospital admission in cirrhotic patients. The European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic-Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) Group modified the intensive care Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score into CLIF-SOFA, which detects the presence of ACLF in patients with or without AD, classifying it into three grades.

AIM

To investigate the role of the EASL-CLIF definition for ACLF and the ability of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores for prognosticating ACLF or AD.

METHODS

This study is a literature review using a standardized search method, conducted using the steps following the guidelines for reporting systematic reviews set out by the PRISMA statement. For specific keywords, relevant articles were found by searching PubMed, ScienceDirect, and BioMed Central-BMC. The databases were searched using the search terms by one reviewer, and a list of potentially eligible studies was generated based on the titles and abstracts screened. The data were then extracted and assessed on the basis of the Reference Citation Analysis (https://www.referencecitationanalysis.com/).

RESULTS

Most of the included studies used the EASL-CLIF definition for ACLF to identify cirrhotic patients with a significant risk of short-term mortality. The primary outcome in all reviewed studies was mortality. Most of the study findings were based on an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, which revealed that CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores were preferable to other models predicting 28-d mortality. Their AUROC scores were higher and able to predict all-cause mortality at 90, 180, and 365 d. A total of 50 articles were included in this study, which found that the CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD scores in more than half of the articles were able to predict short-term and long-term mortality in patients with either ACLF or AD.

CONCLUSION

CLIF-SOFA score surpasses other models in predicting mortality in ACLF patients, especially in the short-term. CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD are accurate short-term and long-term mortality prognosticating scores.

Predictive factors of inhospital mortality for ICU patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure undergoing liver transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only effective treatment for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but it is limited by organ availability. This study aims to identify predictive factors of mortality for LT candidates based on parameters measured at the admission into the ICU.

METHODS

Sixty-four patients diagnosed with ACLF, admitted consecutively into ICU between 2015 and 2019, were retrospectively enrolled in the study. Data were assessed using univariate and multivariate regression analyses to identify risk factors for inhospital mortality and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 67% of patients were diagnosed with ACLF grade 3, and 25 and 8% with grades 2 and 1. Thirty percent received LT with a 1-year mortality rate of 16%, whereas for nontransplanted patients it reached 90%. Clinical features were compared according to transplant eligibility. In the univariate analysis model, lung failure (HR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.48-6.09; P = 0.002), high lactate levels (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04; P < 0.001) and CLIF-ACLF score (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.09; P = 0.026) were independently correlated to increased inhospital mortality. LT reduced mortality risk (HR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.72; P = 0.016).

CONCLUSION

Lung failure, CLIF-ACLF score and blood lactate levels at admission were the only statistically significant independent predictors of inhospital mortality, more accurate in determining transplant success than ACLF grade.

Epidemiology of liver failure in Asia-Pacific region

The global burden of deaths caused by liver failure is substantial. The Asia-Pacific region is home to more than half of the global population and accounted for 62.6% of global deaths because of liver diseases in 2015. The aetiology of liver failure varies in different countries at different times. Viruses (Hepatitis A, B and E), drugs (herbs and anti-tuberculous drugs), toxins (alcohol use) and autoimmune flares are mainly responsible of majority of liver failure in individuals with normal liver (acute liver failure; ALF); else these may precipitate liver failure in those with chronic liver disease (acute-on-chronic liver failure; ACLF). Concomitant increases in alcohol misuse and metabolic syndrome in recent years are concerning. Ongoing efforts to address liver failure-related morbidity and mortality require accurate contemporary estimates of epidemiology and outcomes. In light of the ever-changing nature of liver disease epidemiology, accurate estimates for the burden of liver failure across the countries are vital for setting clinical, research and policy priorities. In this review, we aimed to describe the current as well as changing epidemiological trends of common liver failure syndromes, ALF and ACLF in the Asia-Pacific region.

Three-dimensional modeling in complex liver surgery and liver transplantation

Liver resection and transplantation are the most effective therapies for many hepatobiliary tumors and diseases. However, these surgical procedures are challenging due to the anatomic complexity and many anatomical variations of the vascular and biliary structures. Three-dimensional (3D) printing models can clearly locate and describe blood vessels, bile ducts and tumors, calculate both liver and residual liver volumes, and finally predict the functional status of the liver after resection surgery. The 3D printing models may be particularly helpful in the preoperative evaluation and surgical planning of especially complex liver resection and transplantation, allowing to possibly increase resectability rates and reduce postoperative complications. With the continuous developments of imaging techniques, such models are expected to become widely applied in clinical practice.

A Liver Stiffness Measurement-Based Nomogram Predicts Variceal Rebleeding in Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis

Background

Cirrhosis esophageal variceal rebleeding is a major complication of chronic cirrhosis. The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) can predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis and has a good correlation with liver stiffness measurement (LSM). However, there are currently few studies based on liver stiffness to predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. This study is aimed at exploring whether liver stiffness can predict rebleeding in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis and developing an easy-to-use nomogram for predicting the risk of rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis undergoing secondary prevention.

Methods

A prospective analysis of 289 cirrhosis patients was performed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors to create a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots.

Results

Use of a nonselective beta-blocker (NSBB) drug, LSM, hemoglobin, and platelet count were identified as factors that could predict rebleeding. We created a nomogram for rebleeding in cirrhosis by using these risk factors. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by the C-index (0.772, 95% CI 0.732–0.822). The results of the calibration plots showed that the actual observation and prediction values obtained by the nomogram had good consistency.

Conclusions

LSM can predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis, while the nomogram is a conventional tool for doctors to facilitate a personalized prognostic evaluation.

Statin exposure is associated with reduced development of acute-on-chronic liver failure in a Veterans Affairs cohort

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS

There is a need to identify therapies that prevent the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with cirrhosis. This study sought to evaluate the association between statin exposure and the risk of developing ACLF in a large national cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with cirrhosis within the Veterans Health Administration from 2008 and 2018. Patients were stratified into 3 groups based on statin exposure (statin naïve, existing statin user, and new statin initiator). Cox proportional hazards regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and marginal structural models were utilized to comprehensively address potential confounding in estimating the association between time-updated statin exposure and first occurrence of high-grade ACLF.

RESULTS

The cohort included 84,963 patients, of whom 26.9% were on a statin at baseline. A total of 8,558 (10.1%) patients with cirrhosis were hospitalized with high-grade ACLF over a median follow-up time of 51.6 months (IQR 27.5-81.4). Time-updated statin use was associated with a significant reduction in the hazard of developing ACLF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62, 95% CI 0.59-0.65, p <0.001). Increasing doses of statin were associated with progressively reduced hazard of developing ACLF (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.86, p <0.001 for <20 mg vs. 0 mg of time-updated statin exposure, in simvastatin equivalents; HR 0.61, 95%, CI 0.58-0.64, p <0.001 for >20 mg vs. 0 mg statin exposure). Furthermore, every additional 5 months of statin exposure was associated with a 9% reduced hazard of high-grade ACLF (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.92, p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large, retrospective, cohort study in patients with cirrhosis, statin use was significantly associated with reduced development of high-grade ACLF.

LAY SUMMARY

Statin therapy has been shown to have numerous beneficial effects in patients with chronic liver disease. This study demonstrated a strong association between statin therapy and a reduced risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure development in patients with cirrhosis. The results of this study support the promising role that statins may play in future prevention of acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis.

The mechanistic and prognostic implications of heart rate variability analysis in patients with cirrhosis

Chronic liver damage leads to scarring of the liver tissue and ultimately a systemic illness known as cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis exhibit multi-organ dysfunction and high mortality. Reduced heart rate variability (HRV) is a hallmark of cirrhosis, reflecting a state of defective cardiovascular control and physiological network disruption. Several lines of evidence have revealed that decreased HRV holds prognostic information and can predict survival of patients independent of the severity of liver disease. Thus, the aim of this review is to shed light on the mechanistic and prognostic implications of HRV analysis in patients with cirrhosis. Notably, several studies have extensively highlighted the critical role systemic inflammation elicits in conferring the reduction in patients' HRV. It appears that IL-6 is likely to play a central mechanistic role, whereby its levels also correlate with manifestations, such as autonomic neuropathy and hence the partial uncoupling of the cardiac pacemaker from autonomic control. Reduced HRV has also been reported to be highly correlated with the severity of hepatic encephalopathy, potentially through systemic inflammation affecting specific brain regions, involved in both cognitive function and autonomic regulation. In general, the prognostic ability of HRV analysis holds immense potential in improving survival rates for patients with cirrhosis, as it may indeed be added to current prognostic indicators, to ultimately increase the accuracy of selecting the recipient most in need of liver transplantation. However, a network physiology approach in the future is critical to delineate the exact mechanistic basis by which decreased HRV confers poor prognosis.

Optimizing systemic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: the key role of liver function

The number of effective systemic therapies for the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is rapidly increasing, and the advent of immunotherapy has changed the treatment paradigm for these patients, leading to significantly improved survival outcomes. However, many patients with HCC will continue to receive tyrosine kinase inhibitors, partly because of contraindications to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Currently, the best sequential first- and second-line systemic treatment remains elusive. Maintenance of optimal liver function is crucial, it is likely to impinge on temporary or permanent treatment discontinuation, and should also be considered when defining the treatment sequence. Hepatic decompensation, which does not always coincide with disease progression, is part of this complex dynamically evolving system, and must be promptly recognized and adequately managed to allow the patient to continue in the therapeutic course. The purpose of this review is to highlight and summarize the evidence on the efficacy and safety of systemic agents, with a focus on the impact of underlying cirrhosis, and to suggest new clinical outcomes for randomized controlled trials for advanced HCC to better assess the net health benefit in this specific setting.

Impact of acute decompensation on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background/Aims

Organ failure in patients with acute decompensation (AD) is a defining characteristic of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the clinical features of AD during the long-term clinical course of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are still poorly understood. This study aimed to clarify features and impact of AD/ACLF on the prognosis of patients after treatment for HCC.

Methods

This retrospective study enrolled 556 consecutive patients who were initially diagnosed with HCC, and analyses were conducted taking into account HCC treatment type, HCC stage, and presence or absence of cirrhosis.

Results

During follow-up, 299 patients with AD were hospitalized. AD occurrence is closely related to prognosis, regardless of the presence or absence of cirrhosis and HCC stage, and early-onset AD (within 90 days after HCC treatment) has negative impact on prognosis. In the intermediate-advanced–stage group, surgical resection had a positive impact on AD incidence post-treatment. After systemic therapy for HCC, renal impairment was the predictive factors for AD development. The 28/90-day mortality rate was higher among 41 cases (13.7%) with AD who exhibited ACLF as compared with cases without ACLF. AD without cirrhosis had similar ACLF incidence and short-term mortality, compared to AD with cirrhosis. The prognostic model using a decision-tree–based approach, which includes ACLF, bilirubin level, HCC progression, and MELD score is useful for predicting 90- or 28-day mortality after AD diagnosis.

Conclusions

Careful management of patients with HCC who are hospitalized with AD is necessary, considering ACLF, HCC progression, and liver function.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Clinical Guidelines

In patients with cirrhosis and chronic liver disease, acute-on-chronic liver failure is emerging as a major cause of mortality. These guidelines indicate the preferred approach to the management of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure and represent the official practice recommendations of the American College of Gastroenterology. The scientific evidence for these guidelines was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation process. In instances where the evidence was not appropriate for Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation, but there was consensus of significant clinical merit, key concept statements were developed using expert consensus. These guidelines are meant to be broadly applicable and should be viewed as the preferred, but not only, approach to clinical scenarios.

Towards a new definition of decompensated cirrhosis

There is a universal agreement that the occurrence of clinical complications, such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding, and jaundice mark the transition from the compensated to the decompensated stage of cirrhosis. Decompensation is associated with a substantial worsening of patient prognosis and is therefore considered the most important stratification variable for the risk of death. However, this classification is an oversimplification, as it does not discriminate between the prognostic subgroups that characterise the course of decompensation, which depends on the type and number of decompensating events. A deeper insight into the clinical course of decompensated cirrhosis is provided by observational studies characterising acute decompensation (AD), which occurs mostly in patients who have already experienced decompensating events. Decompensation presents as AD in a portion of patients while in many others it presents as a slow development of ascites or mild grade 1 or 2 hepatic encephalopathy, or jaundice, not requiring hospitalisation. Thus, we propose that decompensation of cirrhosis occurs through 2 distinct pathways: a non-acute and an acute (which includes acute-on-chronic liver failure) pathway. Moreover, while non-acute decompensation is the most frequent pathway of the first decompensation, AD mostly represents further decompensation.

Global burden of disease: acute-on-chronic liver failure, a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterised by acute decompensation of cirrhosis associated with organ failures. We systematically evaluated the geographical variations of ACLF across the world in terms of prevalence, mortality, aetiology of chronic liver disease (CLD), triggers and organ failures.

METHODS

We searched EMBASE and PubMed from 3/1/2013 to 7/3/2020 using the ACLF-EASL-CLIF (European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure) criteria. Two investigators independently conducted the abstract selection/abstraction of the aetiology of CLD, triggers, organ failures and prevalence/mortality by presence/grade of ACLF. We grouped countries into Europe, East/South Asia and North/South America. We calculated the pooled proportions, evaluated the methodological quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and statistical heterogeneity, and performed sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

We identified 2369 studies; 30 cohort studies met our inclusion criteria (43 206 patients with ACLF and 140 835 without ACLF). The global prevalence of ACLF among patients admitted with decompensated cirrhosis was 35% (95% CI 33% to 38%), highest in South Asia at 65%. The global 90-day mortality was 58% (95% CI 51% to 64%), highest in South America at 73%. Alcohol was the most frequently reported aetiology of underlying CLD (45%, 95% CI 41 to 50). Infection was the most frequent trigger (35%) and kidney dysfunction the most common organ failure (49%). Sensitivity analyses showed regional estimates grossly unchanged for high-quality studies. Type of design, country health index, underlying CLD and triggers explained the variation in estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

The global prevalence and mortality of ACLF are high. Region-specific variations could be explained by the type of triggers/aetiology of CLD or grade. Health systems will need to tailor early recognition and treatment of ACLF based on region-specific data.

Liver cirrhosis

Cirrhosis is widely prevalent worldwide and can be a consequence of different causes, such as obesity, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, high alcohol consumption, hepatitis B or C infection, autoimmune diseases, cholestatic diseases, and iron or copper overload. Cirrhosis develops after a long period of inflammation that results in replacement of the healthy liver parenchyma with fibrotic tissue and regenerative nodules, leading to portal hypertension. The disease evolves from an asymptomatic phase (compensated cirrhosis) to a symptomatic phase (decompensated cirrhosis), the complications of which often result in hospitalisation, impaired quality of life, and high mortality. Progressive portal hypertension, systemic inflammation, and liver failure drive disease outcomes. The management of liver cirrhosis is centred on the treatment of the causes and complications, and liver transplantation can be required in some cases. In this Seminar, we discuss the disease burden, pathophysiology, and recommendations for the diagnosis and management of cirrhosis and its complications. Future challenges include better screening for early fibrosis or cirrhosis, early identification and reversal of causative factors, and prevention of complications.

Nonlinear Relationship Between Macrocytic Anemia and Decompensated Hepatitis B Virus Associated Cirrhosis: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Mean corpuscular volume (MCV) is major used as an indicator for the differential diagnosis of anemia. Macrocytic anemia in decompensated cirrhosis is common. However, the relationship between macrocytic anemia and decompensated hepatitis B virus (HBV) associated cirrhosis has not been fully addressed.

Methods: In this cross-sectional study, a total of 457 patients diagnosed decompensated HBV associated cirrhosis who met all inclusion criteria from 2011 to 2018 were analyzed. Association between macrocytic anemia and the liver damaged (Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score) were examined using multiple logistic regression analyses and identified using smooth curve fitting.

Results: Compared with normocytic anemia, MCV and MELD are significantly positively correlated in macrocytic anemia (p < 0.001). A non-linear relationship of MCV and MELD association was found though the piecewise linear spline models in patients with decompensated HBV associated cirrhosis. MCV positive correlated with MELD when the MCV was greater than 98.2 fl (regression coefficient = 0.008, 95% CI 0.1, 0.4).

Conclusion: Macrocytic anemia may be a reliable predictor for mortality because it is closely related to the degree of liver damage in patients with decompensated HBV associated cirrhosis.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Cirrhosis

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome that develops in patients with acutely decompensated chronic liver disease. It is characterised by high 28-day mortality, the presence of one or more organ failures (OFs) and a variable but severe grade of systemic inflammation. Despite the peculiarity of each one, every definition proposed for ACLF recognizes it as a proper clinical entity. In this paper, we provide an overview of the diagnostic criteria proposed by the different scientific societies and the clinical characteristics of the syndrome. Established and experimental treatments are also described. Among the former, the most relevant are directed to support organ failures, treat precipitating factors and carry out early assessment for liver transplantation (LT). Further studies are needed to better clarify pathophysiology of the syndrome and discover new therapies.

Portal Hypertension and Ascites: Patient-and Population-centered Clinical Practice Guidelines by the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF)

Portal hypertension and ascites are two crucial events in the natural history of liver cirrhosis, whose appearance marks a downward shift in the prognosis of the disease. Over the years, several international and national societies have issued clinical practice guidelines for the diagnosis and management of portal hypertension and ascites. The present document addresses the needs of an updated guidance on the clinical management of these conditions. Accordingly, the AISF Governing Board appointed a multi-disciplinary committee of experts for drafting an update of the most recent EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines. The aim of this work was to adapt the EASL recommendations to national regulations and resources, local circumstances and settings, infrastructure, and cost/benefit strategies to avoid duplication of efforts and optimize resource utilization. The committee defined the objectives, the key issues and retrieved the relevant evidence by performing a systematic review of the literature. Finally, the committee members (chosen on the basis of their specific expertise) identified the guidelines' key questions and developed them following the PICO format (Population, Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes). For each of the PICO questions, the systematic review of the literature was made on the most important scientific databases (Pubmed, Scopus, Embase).

New Indications for Liver Transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is an important therapeutic option for the treatment of several liver diseases. Modern LT is characterized by remarkable improvements in post-transplant patient survival, graft survival, and quality of life. Thanks to these great improvements, indications for LT are expanding. Nowadays, clinical conditions historically considered exclusion criteria for LT, have been considered new indications for LT, showing survival advantages for patients. In this review, we provide an updated overview of the principal newer indications for LT, with particular attention to alcoholic hepatitis, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), cholangiocarcinoma and colorectal cancer metastases.

Recompensation factors for patients with decompensated cirrhosis: a multicentre retrospective case-control study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate recompensation factors among patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

DESIGN

A multicentre retrospective case-control study was conducted. Data were collected from and compared between groups of patients with recompensated and acute decompensated cirrhosis. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to select indicators associated with recompensation among patients with decompensated cirrhosis with different complications. A decision tree with 10-fold cross-validation was used to develop the model to identify patients with recompensation. We followed the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) guideline for development and reporting of the new model.

SETTING

The study was conducted in six tertiary public hospitals in Chongqing, China.

PARTICIPANTS

This study included 3953 patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

RESULTS

In the total sample of included patients, there were 553 patients with recompensation and 3400 patients with acute decompensation, including 1158 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, 1715 patients with a bacterial infection, 104 patients with hepatic encephalopathy and 423 patients with ascites. The most relevant indicator of recompensation selected by the decision tree model was albumin, with a threshold of 40 g/L. Total protein, haemoglobin, basophil percentage, alanine aminotransferase, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and diabetes were also selected to subsequently distinguish patients. The terminal nodes with a probability of recompensation was 0.89. The overall accuracy rate of the model was 0.92 (0.91-0.93), and it exhibited high specificity (86.9%) and sensitivity (92.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of recompensated cirrhosis could be identified by albumin, total protein, haemoglobin, basophil percentage, alanine aminotransferase, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and diabetes. These simple variables may help clinicians develop a treatment plan to encourage patients with decompensated cirrhosis to recompensate.