Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments

High-intensity rainfall following drought triggers extreme nutrient concentrations in a small agricultural catchment

The profound influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle raises concerns about its potential impacts on water quality, particularly in agricultural catchments. Here, we analysed 200 storm events monitored for nitrate and total phosphorus (TP) at sub-hourly intervals from 2016 to 2023 in the Kervidy-Naizin catchment (north-western France). Using Extreme Value theory, we identified storm events with extreme concentrations and compared their hydroclimatic characteristics to those of non-extreme events. We hypothesised that extreme concentration events occurred under extreme hydroclimatic conditions, which are projected to become more frequent in the future. The extreme events identified showed dilution patterns for nitrate, with concentrations decreasing by up to 41 %, and accretion patterns for TP, with concentrations increasing by up to 1400 % compared to non-extreme events. Hydroclimatic conditions during extreme concentration events were characterised by high rainfall intensities and low antecedent discharge, but no particular conditions for mean discharge. During non-extreme events, nitrate concentration-discharge relationships exhibited primarily clockwise hysteresis, whereas TP displayed an equal mix of clockwise and anticlockwise loops. In contrast, extreme events showed more anticlockwise hysteresis for nitrate and weak hysteresis for TP. We interpreted these dynamics and their hydroclimatic controls as the result of infiltration-excess overland flow diluting nitrate-rich groundwater and exporting large amounts of TP during intensive rainfall events following droughts, while groundwater fluctuations in the riparian zone and streambed remobilization control nutrient exports during non-extreme events. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic extremes, such retrospective analyses can provide valuable insights into future nutrient dynamics in streams draining agricultural catchments.

Interpretation of river water quality data is strongly controlled by measurement time and frequency

Water quality monitoring at high temporal frequency provides a detailed picture of environmental stressors and ecosystem response, which is essential to protect and restore lake and river health. An effective monitoring network requires knowledge on optimal monitoring frequency and data variability. Here, high-frequency hydrochemical datasets (dissolved oxygen, pH, electrical conductivity, turbidity, water temperature, total reactive phosphorus, total phosphorus and nitrate) from six UK catchments were analysed to 1) understand the lowest measurement frequency needed to fully capture the variation in the datasets; and 2) investigate bias caused by sampling at different times of the day. The study found that reducing the measurement frequency increasingly changed the interpretation of the data by altering the calculated median and data range. From 45 individual parameter-catchment combinations (six to eight parameters in six catchments), four-hourly data captured most of the hourly range (>90 %) for 37 combinations, whilst 41 had limited impact on the median (<0.5 % change). Twelve-hourly and daily data captured >90 % of the range with limited impact on the median in approximately half of the combinations, whereas weekly and monthly data captured this in <6 combinations. Generally, reducing sampling frequency had most impact on the median for parameters showing strong diurnal cycles, whilst parameters showing rapid responses to extreme flow conditions had most impact on the range. Diurnal cycles resulted in year-round intra-daily variation in most of the parameters, apart from nutrient concentrations, where daily variation depended on both seasonal flow patterns and anthropogenic influences. To design an optimised monitoring programme, key catchment characteristics and required data resolution for the monitoring purpose should be considered. Ideally a pilot study with high-frequency monitoring, at least four-hourly, should be used to determine the minimum frequency regime needed to capture temporal behaviours in the intended focus water quality parameters by revealing their biogeochemical response patterns.

Changes in physicochemical parameters of the alpine/mountain stream influenced by summer flash flood in Tatra Mountains (Western Carpathians)

Changes to the physicochemical parameters of water in alpine/mountain streams can provide evidence of ongoing natural and anthropogenic processes in their catchment. In this study, we analysed a mountain stream (Javorinka) on the north-eastern side of the Tatra Mountains (Western Carpathians), which is minimally influenced by human activity. The stream was monitored weekly for 5 years (2017-2021) and evaluated for its seasonal variations in physicochemical parameters. These seasonal variations were influenced by the large summer flash flood in July 2018. We hypothesise that floods are essential for the oligotrophic profile of alpine/mountain streams. To support this idea, our main objective was to compare the seasonal trends of the main physicochemical parameters in the stream before and after floods or periods of high flow. We found evidence to support our hypothesis. For example, there was a significant decrease in the chemical consumption of oxygen and ammonia, and, conversely, an increase in the ratio of saturated oxygen and nitrate concentrations. Stream bed erosion also resulted in increased phosphates (over the next 2 years) and high enrichment of the water by dissolved solids in the spring. Interestingly outside of the main objectives, we observed a significant decrease in sulphates, especially in the summer and autumn of 2020 and 2021, which may be related to suppressed emissions due to the restriction of the COVID-19 lockdown. The observed trends and their changes therefore support the idea that alpine/mountain streams are excellent indicators of ongoing environmental processes, and that occasional summer flash floods support the oligotrophic profile of the stream system.

Smelly shark, smelly ray: what is infecting you?

AIMS

Although elasmobranchs are consumed worldwide, bacteriological assessments for this group are still sorely lacking. In this context, this study assessed bacteria of sharks and rays from one of the most important landing ports along the Rio de Janeiro coast.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Bacteria were isolated from the cloacal swabs of the sampled elasmobranchs. They were cultured, and Vibrio, Aeromonas, and Enterobacterales were isolated and identified. The isolated bacteria were then biochemically identified and antimicrobial susceptibility assays were performed. Antigenic characterizations were performed for Salmonella spp. and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) assays were performed to identify Escherichia coli pathotypes. Several bacteria of interest in the One Health context were detected. The most prevalent Enterobacterales were Morganella morganii and Citrobacter freundii, while Vibrio harveyi and Vibrio fluvialis were the most prevalent among Vibrio spp. and Aeromonas allosacharophila and Aeromonas veronii bv. veronii were the most frequent among Aeromonas spp. Several bacteria also displayed antimicrobial resistance, indicative of Public Health concerns. A total of 10% of Vibrio strains were resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and 40% displayed intermediate resistance to cefoxitin. Salmonella enterica strains displayed intermediate resistance to ciprofloxacin, nalidixic acid and streptomycin. All V. cholerae strains were identified as non-O1/non-O139. The detected E. coli strains did not exhibit pathogenicity genes. This is the first study to perform serology assessments for S. enterica subsp. enterica isolated from elasmobranchs, identifying the zoonotic Typhimurium serovar. Salmonella serology evaluations are, therefore, paramount to identify the importance of elasmobranchs in the epidemiological salmonellosis chain.

CONCLUSIONS

The detection of several pathogenic and antibiotic-resistant bacteria may pose significant Public Health risks in Brazil, due to high elasmobranch consumption rates, indicating the urgent need for further bacteriological assessments in this group.

A review of the development and implementation of the critical source area concept: A reflection of Andrew Sharpley's role in improving water quality

Critical source areas (CSAs) are small areas of a field, farm, or catchment that account for most contaminant loss by having both a high contaminant availability and transport potential. Most work on CSAs has focused on phosphorus (P), largely through the work in the 1990s initiated by Dr. Sharpley and colleagues who recognized the value in targeting mitigation efforts. The CSA concept has been readily grasped by scientists, farmers, and policymakers across the globe. However, experiences and success have been mixed, often caused by the variation in where and how CSAs are defined. For instance, analysis of studies from 1990 to 2023 shows that the proportion of the annual contaminant load coming from a CSA decreases from field to farm to catchment scale. This finding is consistent with increased buffering of CSAs and greater contribution of other sources with scale, or variation in the definition of CSAs. We therefore argue that the best application of CSAs to target mitigation actions should be at small areas that truly account for most contaminant loss. This article sheds light on the development and utilization of CSAs, paying tribute to Dr. Sharpley's remarkable contributions to the improvement of water quality, and reflecting upon where the CSA concept has succeeded or not in reducing contaminant (largely P) loss.

Buffering capacity of submerged macrophytes against nutrient pulses increase with its coverage in shallow lakes

Submerged macrophytes can improve water quality and buffer the effects of external nutrient loading, which helps to maintain a clear-water state in shallow lakes. We constructed 12 large enclosures with contrasting coverages (treatments) of submerged macrophytes (SMC) to elucidate their buffering capacity and resilience to nutrient pulses. We found that aquatic ecosystems with high SMC had higher buffering capacity and resilience, vice versa, i. e, the enclosures with high SMC quickly buffered the nutrient pulse and rebounded to clear-water state after a short stay in turbid-water state dominated by algae, while the treatments with low SMC could not fully buffer the pulse and rebound to clear-water state, and they slowly entered the transitional state after staying in turbid-water state. This means that the enclosures with high SMC had a better water quality than those with low SMC, i.e., the levels of nutrients and Chl-a were lower in the treatments with high plant coverage. In addition, plant coverage had a significantly positive buffering effect against nitrogen and phosphorus pulses, i.e., the nutrient concentrations in the treatments with high SMC took shorter time to return to the pre-pulse level. Overall, our results evidenced that the higher that the SMCs is, the better is the water quality and buffering capacity against nutrient pulses, i.e. the more stable is the clear-water state. However, low SMC may not be able to resist the impact of such strong nutrient pulse. Our results provide reference and guidance for water pollution control and water ecological restoration.

Carbonic anhydrase in elasmobranchs and implications of the current climate change scenario

The enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA) has well-known functions in acid-base balance, respiratory gas exchange, and osmoregulation in teleost fishes. However, studies concerning the role of CA in elasmobranchs are still scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present the current status of CA studies in sharks and rays, as well as to identify gaps and emerging needs, in order to guide future studies. This review is organized according to the main roles of CA, with further considerations on climate change and CA effects indicated as paramount, as strategies in the face of climate change can be crucial for species response. The literature review revealed a reduction in publications on CA over the years. In addition, a historical research differentiation is noted, where the first assessments on the subject addressed investigations on basic CA functions, while the most recent studies present a comparative approach among species as well as interdisciplinary discussions, such as ecology and phylogeny. Considering that most elasmobranchs are threatened, future studies should prioritize non-lethal methodologies, in addition to expanding studies to climate change effects on CA.

Climate Change Implications for Metal and Metalloid Dynamics in Aquatic Ecosystems and its Context within the Decade of Ocean Sciences

Anthropogenic activities are affecting marine ecosystems, notably coastal ones, in multiple ways and at increasing rates, leading to habitat degradation, loss of biodiversity, and greater exposure of flora and fauna to chemical contaminants, with serious effects on ocean health. Chemical pollution, in particular, is a significant negative stressor for aquatic ecosystems, both oceanic and coastal, and has recently been identified as a priority for conservation efforts. Metals and metalloids, in particular, present environmental persistence, bioavailability, tendency to bioaccumulate along the trophic chain, and potential toxic effects. However, the current scenario of climate change is increasingly affecting the aquatic environment, altering water mass flows and the transport of pollutants, aggravating toxic effects and ecological risks. Moreover, although traditional sources of contamination have been studied for decades, many knowledge gaps persist, in addition to the emerging effects of climate change that are still poorly studied. In this regard, this review aims to discuss climate change implications for metal and metalloid dynamics in aquatic ecosystems and its context within the Decade of Ocean Sciences. We also discuss how an increasing interest in plastic pollution has led to contamination by metals and metalloids being neglected, requiring mutual efforts to move forward in the understating of the negative and often lethal impacts of this type of pollutants, thus aiming at prioritizing contamination by metals and metalloids not just in the oceans, but in all water bodies.

Spatial characteristics of nutrient budget on town scale in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

Accurately quantifying nutrient budget is an essential step toward sustainable nutrient management in large watersheds increasingly disturbed by human activity. A town-scale nutrient budget framework based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was developed for 2010-2012 in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China (TGRA). Moran's I spatial correlation test and Geodetector spatial heterogeneity test were employed to systematically analyze the spatial characteristics of the resulting nutrient budget. The Moran's I value of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) gradually increased from input to output in the range of 0.091-0.232 and 0.102-0.484, respectively. Towns with higher TN and TP inputs were largely concentrated in the main urban area of Chongqing because of its high population density. By contrast, towns with higher TN and TP outputs were concentrated in the head of the TGRA. The Moran's I values of the TN and TP retention coefficients (R) were 0.433 and 0.524, respectively, demonstrating clear spatial consistency. Towns with a "High-high" spatial consistency pattern and positive R value were concentrated in the tail and hinterland, while those with a "Low-low" spatial consistency pattern and negative coefficient value were located mainly in the head of the TGRA. This phenomenon was mostly caused by differences in regional elevation, the normalized difference vegetation index, and soil erosion factor. The interaction effect between any two of these three factors on nutrient retention (Geodetector q-value) was greater than 60%. Therefore, future nutrient management should be based on a full understanding of regional biophysical conditions, especially in large areas. These findings provide a new perspective on fine nutrient management.

Towards circular phosphorus: The need of inter- and transdisciplinary research to close the broken cycle

Phosphorus (P) is an essential element to all living beings but also a finite resource. P-related problems center around broken P cycles from local to global scales. This paper presents outcomes from the 9th International Phosphorus Workshop (IPW9) held 2019 on how to move towards a sustainable P management. It is based on two sequential discussion rounds with all participants. Important progress was reported regarding the awareness of P as finite mineable resource, technologies to recycle P, and legislation towards a circular P economy. Yet, critical deficits were identified such as how to handle legacy P, how climate change may affect ecosystem P cycling, or working business models to up-scale existing recycling models. Workshop participants argued for more transdisciplinary networks to narrow a perceived science-practice/policy gap. While this gap may be smaller in reality as illustrated with a Swiss example, we formulate recommendations how to bridge this gap more effectively.

Grassland Phenology Response to Climate Conditions in Biobio, Chile from 2001 to 2020

Plant phenology is affected by climate conditions and therefore provides a sensitive indicator to changes in climate. Studying the evolution and change in plant phenology aids in a better understanding of and predicting changes in ecosystems. Vegetation Indices (VIs) have been recognized for their utility in indicating vegetation activity. Understanding climatic variables and their relationship to VI support the knowledge base of how ecosystems are changing under a new climatic scenario. This study evaluates grassland growth phenology in the Biobio, Chile, biweekly with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. Four growth parameters for the six agro-climatic regions were analyzed from 2001 to 2020: start and end of the season, time and value of maximum NDVI. For this purpose, the NDVI time series were smoothed using Savitzky–Golay filtering. In addition, by using monthly gridded database climate data, we studied correlations between phenology markers and rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The results show that both the start and end of the growing season did not significantly change; however, all agro-climatic regions grow faster and more vigorously. Thus, climatic conditions in Biobio have become more conducive to grassland growth over the 2001–2020 period.

Effects of change in streamflow patterns on water quality

Streamflow patterns are closely linked with the quality of stream water, but they are often dealt separately. Due to this, the effects of change in streamflow patterns resulting from river regulation and flow diversion on stream water quality remain under-investigated. This study models change in water quality indicators including pollutants (total suspended solids and turbidity), nutrients (total nitrogen and phosphorus), dissolved oxygen, nitrogen (kjeldahl), pH, and salinity caused by the change in streamflow patterns under different scenarios of river regulation, flow diversion, and rainfall. The generalized additive model was used and the Goulburn-Broken catchment, Australia was chosen as the case study. It was found that concentrations of pollutants and nutrients increased by 38% while dissolved oxygen and nitrogen (kjeldahl) decreased by 35% during the period 1990-2018. These changes were associated with an average increase of 20% in low and medium flows, an average decline of 22% in high and overbank flows and a 15% decline in rainfall. Under the scenario of climate change, river regulation and flow diversion, the overbank flow patterns would mimic the effects of low and medium flows on the water quality indicators that would raise the concentration of pollutants, nutrients, and salinity by 19%. Restoration of high flows would decrease these concentrations by 28% relative to current concentrations, however, it would also reduce dissolved oxygen, nitrogen (kjeldahl), and pH. Effects of streamflow patterns on water quality have implications for environmental flow management, thus, this study recommends critical adjustments in low, medium, and high flows for improving water quality.

National estimates of environmental thresholds for upland soil phosphorus in China based on a meta-analysis

The environmental threshold for upland soil phosphorus (P) content (ETSP, i.e., inflection point of soil P content leading to enhanced P loss) provides an important metric for guiding agricultural nonpoint source P pollution control. This study achieved the first meta-analysis to determine ETSP values for upland soils in China. The estimated national-level ETSP based on 472 field experimental observations of Olsen-P content and P loss rate was 30.1 ± 4.0 mg P kg^-1, which was lower than the average ETSP value (52.1 ± 5.0 mg P kg^-1) but higher than the average agronomic threshold values (16.0 ± 6.4 mg P kg^-1) previously reported. Lower upland ETSP values occurred in acidic soils and soils having higher organic matter content (SOM), precipitation and slope (ETSP: 30.5 for pH < 7.0 versus 46.1 for pH ≥ 7.0; >56.4 for SOM < 2%, 49.9 for SOM = 2%-3%, and <3 for SOM > 3%; 33 for precipitation < 1000 mm yr^-1, 27.5 for precipitation = 1000-1200 mm yr^-1 and <5 for precipitation > 1200 mm yr^-1; and 39.8 for slopes < 5° versus <9 for slopes ≥ 5°). A multiple regression model that incorporates SOM, pH, precipitation and slope was developed to predict upland ETSP values (R² = 0.73, p < 0.01). The model estimated national upland ETSP values ranging from ~0 to 100 mg P kg^-1 with an areal-weighted average of 60.6 mg P kg^-1 and 15% of national upland soils having ETSP values <30 mg P kg^-1. Upland soil P contents in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang provinces largely exceeded their corresponding ETSP values by 1-22 mg P kg^-1, indicating high P loss risks. Controlling upland P loss requires integrated management of soil P content, SOM, pH and erosion control. This study provides the first national estimate of upland soil ETSP, providing critical quantitative information for designing management practices to attenuate agricultural nonpoint source P pollution.

Assessment of Automatically Monitored Water Levels and Water Quality Indicators in Rivers with Different Hydromorphological Conditions and Pollution Levels in Greece

Water resources, especially riverine ecosystems, are globally under qualitative and quantitative degradation due to human-imposed pressures. High-temporal-resolution data obtained from automatic stations can provide insights into the processes that link catchment hydrology and streamwater chemistry. The scope of this paper was to investigate the statistical behavior of high-frequency measurements at sites with known hydromorphological and pollution pressures. For this purpose, hourly time series of water levels and key water quality indicators (temperature, electric conductivity, and dissolved oxygen concentrations) collected from four automatic monitoring stations under different hydromorphological conditions and pollution pressures were statistically elaborated. Based on the results, the hydromorphological conditions and pollution pressures of each station were confirmed to be reflected in the results of the statistical analysis performed. It was proven that the comparative use of the statistics and patterns of the water level and quality high-frequency time series could be used in the interpretation of the current site status as well as allowing the detection of possible changes. This approach can be used as a tool for the definition of thresholds, and will contribute to the design of management and restoration measures for the most impacted areas.

Biogeochemical and climate drivers of wetland phosphorus and nitrogen release: Implications for nutrient legacies and eutrophication risk

The dynamics and processes of nutrient cycling and release were examined for a lowland wetland-pond system, draining woodland in southern England. Hydrochemical and meteorological data were analyzed from 1997 to 2017, along with high-resolution in situ sensor measurements from 2016 to 2017. The results showed that even a relatively pristine wetland can become a source of highly bioavailable phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), and silicon (Si) during low-flow periods of high ecological sensitivity. The drivers of nutrient release were primary production and accumulation of biomass, which provided a carbon (C) source for microbial respiration and, via mineralization, a source of bioavailable nutrients for P and N co-limited microorganisms. During high-intensity nutrient release events, the dominant N-cycling process switched from denitrification to nitrate ammonification, and a positive feedback cycle of P and N release was sustained over several months during summer and fall. Temperature controls on microbial activity were the primary drivers of short-term (day-to-day) variability in P release, with subdaily (diurnal) fluctuations in P concentrations driven by water body metabolism. Interannual relationships between nutrient release and climate variables indicated "memory" effects of antecedent climate drivers through accumulated legacy organic matter from the previous year's biomass production. Natural flood management initiatives promote the use of wetlands as "nature-based solutions" in climate change adaptation, flood management, and soil and water conservation. This study highlights potential water quality trade-offs and shows how the convergence of climate and biogeochemical drivers of wetland nutrient release can amplify background nutrient signals by mobilizing legacy nutrients, causing water quality impairment and accelerating eutrophication risk.

Assessment of the main factors affecting the dynamics of nutrients in two rainfed cereal watersheds

Nutrient dynamics and factors that control nutrient exports were observed in two watersheds, namely Latxaga and La Tejería, with similar climatic and management characteristics throughout 10 years (2007-2016). Similar patterns were observed in intra-annual and inter-annual dynamics with higher NO₃^- concentration and NO₃^--N yield during the humid seasons (i.e., winters and hydrological year 2013). Regarding concentration, Latxaga showed a higher decrease of nitrate due to a higher development of vegetated areas. High discharge events produced nitrate dilution due to the presence of tile-drainage at La Tejeria. At Latxaga, where tile-drainage was not observed, an increase in concentration occurred as a response to high discharge events. Comparing both watersheds, La Tejería presented ca. 73 ± 25 mg NO₃^- L^-1 while at Latxaga, the concentration observed was almost three times lower, with ca. 21 ± 15 mg NO₃^- L^-1 throughout the study period. Similar patterns were observed for the NO₃^--N yield, with 32 kg NO₃^--N ha^-1 year^-1 and 17 kg NO₃^--N ha^-1 year^-1 at La Tejería and Latxaga, respectively. Regarding phosphorous, the observed concentrations were 0.20 ± 0.72 mg PO₄^3- L^-1 and 0.06 ± 0.38 mg PO₄^3- L^-1 at La Tejería and Latxaga, respectively, with PO₄^3--P yields being 71 kg PO₄^3--P ha^-1 year^-1 and 33 kg PO₄^3--P ha^-1 year^-1. Annual phosphate-P yield distribution in both watersheds followed similar patterns to those observed for the nitrate-N yield, with higher yields in the humid season. Regarding concentration, highly erosive rainfall that occurred in summer, mobilizing sediments and probably generating desorption of phosphorous in the stream channel, increased phosphate concentration. This research adds to the knowledge base regarding the dynamics of nutrients and the controlling factors in complex agricultural systems with Mediterranean characteristics.

Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model

For the first time, we analyze 2.2 km UK Met Office Unified Model convection-permitting model (CPM) projections for a pan-European domain. These new simulations represent a major increase in domain size, allowing us to examine the benefits of CPMs across a range of European climates. We find a change to the seasonality of extreme precipitation with warming. In particular, there is a relatively muted response for summer, which contrasts with much larger increases in autumn and winter. This flattens the hourly extreme precipitation seasonal cycle across Northern Europe which has a summer peak in the present climate. Over the Western Mediterranean, where autumn is the main extreme precipitation season, there is a regional increase in hourly extreme precipitation frequency, but local changes for lower precipitation thresholds are often insignificant. For mean precipitation, decreases are projected across Europe in summer, smaller decreases in autumn, and increases in winter; comparable changes are seen in the driving general circulation model (GCM) simulations. The winter mean increase is accompanied by a large decrease of winter mean snowfall. Comparing the driving GCM projections with the CPM ones, the CPMs show a robust enhanced intensification of precipitation extremes at the convection-permitting scale compared to coarser resolution climate model projections across various European regions for summer and autumn.

Identifying Flow Pathways for Phosphorus Transport Using Observed Event Forensics and the CRAFT (Catchment Runoff Attenuation Flux Tool)

Identifying key flow pathways is critical in order to understand the transport of Phosphorus (P) from agricultural headwater catchments. High frequency/resolution datasets from two such catchments in Northwest England enabled individual events to be examined to identify the flow (Q) and Total P (TP) and Total Reactive P (TRP) dynamics (forensics). Detailed analysis of multiple flow and water quality parameters is referred to here as the event forensics. Are there more flow pathways than just surface runoff (dominated by overland flow) and baseflow (mainly groundwater) contributing at the outlet of these catchments? If so, hydrograph separation alone will not be sufficient. This forensic analysis gives a classification of four storm event response types. Three classes are based on the balance of old and new water giving enrichment and dilution of TRP pattern in the subsurface flow. A fourth type was observed where a plume of nutrient is lost to the channel when there is no observed flow. Modelling is also essential when used in combination with the event forensics as this additional tool can identify distinct flow pathways in a robust form. A case study will apply the Catchment Runoff Attenuation Flux Tool (CRAFT) to two contrasting small headwater catchments in Northwest England, which formed part of the Demonstration Test Catchments (DTC) Programme. The model will use data collected during a series of events observed in the two catchments between the period 2012 and 2014. It has the ability to simulate fast near surface (that can represent flow in the upper soil horizons and field drains) and event subsurface soil flow, plus slower groundwater discharge. The model can capture P enrichment, dilution and the role that displacement of “old” P rich water has during events by mixing these flows. CRAFT captures the dominant flow and P fluxes as seen in the forensic analysis and can create outputs including smart export coefficients (based on flow pathways) that can be conveyed to policy makers to better underpin decision making.

Nutrient export from Finnish rivers into the Baltic Sea has not decreased despite water protection measures

To tackle the symptoms of eutrophication in the open Baltic Sea and Finnish coastal waters, Finland has agreed to reduce both total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) inputs. Due to large investments in treatment of municipal and industrial wastewaters, TP loads started to decrease already in the mid-1970s and the respective TN loads in the mid-1990s. During the last two decades, much effort has been spent in decreasing the load originating from diffuse sources. Trend analyses in 1995-2016 showed that, despite various mitigation measures, riverine nutrient export has not substantially decreased, and especially the export from rivers draining agricultural lands remains high. In some areas TN concentrations and export were increasing and we found evidence that it was linked to ditching of peatlands. Several factors connected to climate/weather (e.g. temperature and precipitation) have counteracted the mitigation measures, and therefore Finland will not achieve the nutrient reduction targets by 2021.

Using vegetation correction coefficient to modify a dynamic particulate nutrient loss model for monthly nitrogen and phosphorus load predictions: a case study in a small loess hilly watershed

Vegetation is an important factor affecting nutrient enrichment ratio in runoff sediments but few studies have been examined in the effects of different vegetation scenarios on the monthly evolutions of particulate nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loss. In this study, a vegetation correction coefficient was innovatively embedded in a dynamic particulate nutrient loss model to evaluate the monthly trends of particulate N and P loss in a small highly erodible watershed. Results indicate that (i) the monthly sediment yield from June to August 2013 accounted for the dominant percentage in this extreme hydrological year, which was consistent with the monthly trends of rainfall erosivity. The largest monthly sediment yield rate under four different vegetation scenarios all occurred in July with the values of 530.56, 258.09, 579.69, and 370.74 t km^-2. (ii) Particulate N and P loss from April to September changed significantly under different vegetation scenarios, and they were mainly concentrated in June and July 2013; only the N and P loss loads in July accounted for > 70% of annual load. However, the loads in January, February, March, October, November, and December were considered as zero because there was no erosive rainfall during the above 6 months. (iii) The reduction efficiency of particulate N and P loss by scenario 1 was about 1.7 times higher than scenario 3, which shows that forestland in sediment reduction was stronger than grassland and cropland in Zhifanggou Watershed. Results provide the underlying insights needed to guide vegetation reconstruction and soil conservation planning in loess hilly regions.

Increasing the Effectiveness and Adoption of Agricultural Phosphorus Management Strategies to Minimize Water Quality Impairment

Phosphorus (P) is essential for optimum agricultural production, but it also causes water quality degradation when lost through erosion (sediment-attached P), runoff (soluble reactive P; SRP), or leaching (sediment-attached P or SRP). Implementation of conservation practices (CP) affects P at the source (avoiding), during transport (controlling), or at the water resource edge (trapping). Trade-offs often occur with CP implementation. For instance, multiple researchers have shown that conservation tillage reduces total P by over 50%, while increasing SRP by upward of 40%. Conservation tillage may increase water quality degradation as SRP is more bioavailable than is particulate P. Conservation practices must be implemented as a system of practices to increase redundancy and to address all loss pathways, such as P management with conservation tillage and a riparian buffer. Further, planning and adoption must be at a watershed scale to ensure practices are placed in critical source areas, thereby providing the most treatment for the least price. Farmers must be involved in watershed planning, which should include financial backstopping and educational outreach. It is imperative that CPs be used more effectively to reduce and retard off-site P losses. New and innovative CPs are needed to improve control of P leaching, address legacy stores of soil test P, and mitigate increased P losses expected with climate change. Without immediate changes to CP implementation, P losses will increase due to climate change, with a concomitant degradation of water quality. These changes must be made at a watershed scale and in an intentional and transparent manner.

Phosphorus and the Chesapeake Bay: Lingering Issues and Emerging Concerns for Agriculture

Hennig Brandt's discovery of phosphorus (P) occurred during the early European colonization of the Chesapeake Bay region. Today, P, an essential nutrient on land and water alike, is one of the principal threats to the health of the bay. Despite widespread implementation of best management practices across the Chesapeake Bay watershed following the implementation in 2010 of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) to improve the health of the bay, P load reductions across the bay's 166,000-km watershed have been uneven, and dissolved P loads have increased in a number of the bay's tributaries. As the midpoint of the 15-yr TMDL process has now passed, some of the more stubborn sources of P must now be tackled. For nonpoint agricultural sources, strategies that not only address particulate P but also mitigate dissolved P losses are essential. Lingering concerns include legacy P stored in soils and reservoir sediments, mitigation of P in artificial drainage and stormwater from hotspots and converted farmland, manure management and animal heavy use areas, and critical source areas of P in agricultural landscapes. While opportunities exist to curtail transport of all forms of P, greater attention is required toward adapting P management to new hydrologic regimes and transport pathways imposed by climate change.

Designing the National Network for Automatic Monitoring of Water Quality Parameters in Greece

Water quality indices that describe the status of water are commonly used in freshwater vulnerability assessment. The design of river water quality monitoring programs has always been a complex process and despite the numerous methodologies employed by experts, there is still no generally accepted, holistic and practical approach to support all the phases and elements related. Here, a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach was adopted so as to contribute to the design of the national network for monitoring of water quality parameters in Greece that will additionally fulfill the urgent needs for an operational, real-time monitoring of the water resources. During this cost-effective and easily applied procedure the high priority areas were defined by taking into consideration the most important conditioning factors that impose pressures on rivers and the special conditions that increase the need for monitoring locally. The areas of increased need for automatic monitoring of water quality parameters are highlighted and the output map is validated. The sites in high priority areas are proposed for the installation of automatic monitoring stations and the installation and maintenance budget is presented. Finally, the proposed network is contrasted with the current automatic monitoring network in Greece.

Water-quality trends in US rivers: Exploring effects from streamflow trends and changes in watershed management

We present a conceptual model that explores the relationship of streamflow trends to 15 water-quality parameters at 370 sites across the contiguous United States (US). Our analytical framework uses discrete water-quality data, daily streamflow records, and a statistical model to estimate water-quality trends between 1982 and 2012 and parse these trends into the amount of change attributed to trends in streamflow versus changes in watershed management, such as changes in point or non-point sources related to pollution control efforts. We conceptualize a water-quality trend as an additive function of these two trend components. We found that for most of these records the water-quality trends were more strongly affected by changes in watershed management as opposed to trends in streamflow. However, the importance of these trend components on water quality varied by estimate type (i.e. concentration versus load trends), parameter, and site. Trends in load were more influenced by changes in the streamflow regime than trends in concentration. Trends in major ions, salinity, and sediment were more sensitive to changes in streamflow than nutrients. When results were aggregated by site, 25% of the sites had at least 1 parameter where streamflow trends attributed >7.5% to the water-quality trend for concentrations. For loads, this was the case for 66% of the sites. The findings of this work have important implications for the analysis of water-quality trends. Understanding the relative role of streamflow and management changes can help to isolate the effects of pollution control efforts on water quality and provide clearer understanding of progress, or lack thereof, towards water-quality goals.

Strong and recurring seasonality revealed within stream diatom assemblages

Improving stream water quality in agricultural landscapes is an ecological priority and a legislative duty for many governments. Ecosystem health can be effectively characterised by organisms sensitive to water quality changes such as diatoms, single-celled algae that are a ubiquitous component of stream benthos. Diatoms respond within daily timescales to variables including light, temperature, nutrient availability and flow conditions that result from weather and land use characteristics. However, little consideration has been given to the ecological dynamics of diatoms through repeated seasonal cycles when assessing trajectories of stream function, even in catchments actively managed to reduce human pressures. Here, six years of monthly diatom samples from three independent streams, each receiving differing levels of diffuse agricultural pollution, reveal robust and repeated seasonal variation. Predicted seasonal changes in climate-related variables and anticipated ecological impacts must be fully captured in future ecological and water quality assessments, if the apparent resistance of stream ecosystems to pollution mitigation measures is to be better understood.

Hysteresis analysis of nitrate dynamics in the Neuse River, NC

Anthropogenic activities have caused N saturation in many terrestrial ecosystems. The transfer of nutrients and sediments to freshwater environments has resulted in water quality impairments including eutrophication, increased turbidity, ecosystem acidification, and loss of biodiversity. Storm events account for the transport of a large proportion of nutrients and sediments found in watersheds on an annual basis. To implement effective water-quality management strategies, the importance of surface and subsurface flow paths during storm events and low flow conditions need to be quantified. The increased availability of optical in-situ sensors makes high-frequency monitoring of catchment fluxes practical. In this study, we present a high-resolution nitrate monitoring record over a 10-year period in the Neuse River Basin near Clayton, North Carolina. The relationship between discharge and nitrate concentration for 365 storm events are categorized into hysteresis classes that indicate different transport mechanisms into the river. Storm events over the entire period of this study are divided between clockwise, counter-clockwise, and complex hysteresis patterns, indicating multiple nitrate flow paths during different seasons and years. Logistic regression of a suite of environmental variables demonstrates that antecedent soil moisture is a significant factor in determining the storm hysteresis class, with the odds of counter-clockwise hysteresis increasing by 10.3% for every 1 percentage point increase in the soil moisture. There is also an overlying seasonal effect, which indicates that dry soil conditions and frequent small storms during summer leads to greater nitrate transport on the rising limb, in contrast to slower, groundwater-driven inputs during the rest of the year.

Real-time monitoring of water quality to identify pollution pathways in small and middle scale rivers

The quality standards for surface waters increase steadily bearing new challenges for water policy. Precise knowledge of the sources and transport pathway of various impacts in a catchment area is of particular importance for any management activities. Online measurements with high temporal resolution are particularly suited for this purpose especially in small and middle scale catchments. In this paper we present an approach applying mobile measuring stations in which commercial available sensors and wet chemical analysers are combined in a new set to enable real-time monitoring of various parameters. The resulting data and the interpretation of their relationships allow the identification of diverse pollution situations in a river. In this paper some examples of impacts from diffuse and point sources are given to illustrate the high information density obtained through the use of this system.

Effects of 21st century climate change on seasonal flow regimes and hydrologic extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the US

Analyzing future changes in hydrologic extremes such as floods, low flows, and soil moisture extremes is important because many impacts on ecosystems and human systems occur during extreme events. To quantify changes in hydrologic extremes, this study conducts hydrologic modeling experiments over 20 Midwestern watersheds using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced by historical observed datasets and future projections from statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) simulations. Our results show that peak daily streamflow at the 100-yr reoccurrence interval will increase (+10-30%) in most watersheds by 2080s due to significant increases in precipitation (P) and increasing P as rainfall during winter and spring seasons. The simulations also show strong shifts towards earlier peak flow timing (up to a month), especially in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds. These effects are linked to strong decreasing trends in maximum Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) with warming, which are simulated over essentially the entire domain. Projected changes in 7-day extreme low flows are smaller in magnitude (-10-+10%) with somewhat larger decreases simulated at the end of century; however, the timing of extreme low flows is projected to shift from winter/spring to summer and fall in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the northernmost parts of the domain. Extreme low soil moisture increases over most of the domain in the future projections up to the 2050s, but by the 2080s there are more widespread decreases in extreme low soil moisture, especially in the northernmost parts of the domain.

Small Water Bodies in Great Britain and Ireland: Ecosystem function, human-generated degradation, and options for restorative action

Small, 1st and 2nd-order, headwater streams and ponds play essential roles in providing natural flood control, trapping sediments and contaminants, retaining nutrients, and maintaining biological diversity, which extend into downstream reaches, lakes and estuaries. However, the large geographic extent and high connectivity of these small water bodies with the surrounding terrestrial ecosystem makes them particularly vulnerable to growing land-use pressures and environmental change. The greatest pressure on the physical processes in these waters has been their extension and modification for agricultural and forestry drainage, resulting in highly modified discharge and temperature regimes that have implications for flood and drought control further downstream. The extensive length of the small stream network exposes rivers to a wide range of inputs, including nutrients, pesticides, heavy metals, sediment and emerging contaminants. Small water bodies have also been affected by invasions of non-native species, which along with the physical and chemical pressures, have affected most groups of organisms with consequent implications for the wider biodiversity within the catchment. Reducing the impacts and restoring the natural ecosystem function of these water bodies requires a three-tiered approach based on: restoration of channel hydromorphological dynamics; restoration and management of the riparian zone; and management of activities in the wider catchment that have both point-source and diffuse impacts. Such activities are expensive and so emphasis must be placed on integrated programmes that provide multiple benefits. Practical options need to be promoted through legislative regulation, financial incentives, markets for resource services and voluntary codes and actions.

The Role of Attenuation and Land Management in Small Catchments to Remove Sediment and Phosphorus: A Modelling Study of Mitigation Options and Impacts

It is well known that soil, hillslopes, and watercourses in small catchments possess a degree of natural attenuation that affects both the shape of the outlet hydrograph and the transport of nutrients and sediments. The widespread adoption of Natural Based Solutions (NBS) practices in the headwaters of these catchments is expected to add additional attenuation primarily through increasing the amount of new storage available to accommodate flood flows. The actual type of NBS features used to add storage could include swales, ditches, and small ponds (acting as sediment traps). Here, recent data collected from monitored features (from the Demonstration Test Catchments project in the Newby Beck catchment (Eden) in northwest England) were used to provide first estimates of the percentages of the suspended sediment (SS) and total phosphorus (TP) loads that could be trapped by additional features. The Catchment Runoff Attenuation Flux Tool (CRAFT) was then used to model this catchment (Newby Beck) to investigate whether adding additional attenuation, along with the ability to trap and retain SS (and attached P), will have any effect on the flood peak and associated peak concentrations of SS and TP. The modelling tested the hypothesis that increasing the amount of new storage (thus adding attenuation capacity) in the catchment will have a beneficial effect. The model results implied that a small decrease of the order of 5–10% in the peak concentrations of SS and TP was observable after adding 2000 m3 to 8000 m3 of additional storage to the catchment.

Recent Trends (2012–2016) of N, Si, and P Export from the Nemunas River Watershed: Loads, Unbalanced Stoichiometry, and Threats for Downstream Aquatic Ecosystems

The Curonian Lagoon, the largest in Europe, suffers from nuisance cyanobacterial blooms during summer, probably triggered by unbalanced nutrient availability. However, nutrient delivery to this system was never analysed in detail. During 2012–2016, we analysed the monthly discharge, nutrient loads, and ecological stoichiometry at the closing section of the Nemunas River, the main nutrient source to the lagoon. The aim of this study was to investigate seasonal and annual variations of nitrogen (N), silica (Si), and phosphorous (P) with respect to discharge, climatic features, and historical trends. The nutrient loads varied yearly by up to 50% and their concentrations underwent strong seasonality, with summer N and Si limitation. The river discharge (16 ± 4 km3·yr−1) was lower than the historical average (21.8 km3·yr−1). Changes in agricultural practices resulted in similar N export from the river watershed compared to historical data (1986–2002), while sewage treatment plant improvements led to a ~60% decrease of P loads. This work contributes new data to the scattered available information on the most important nutrient source to the Curonian Lagoon. Further P reduction is needed to avoid unbalanced dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus (DIN:DIP~10) ecological stoichiometry in summer, which may stimulate undesired cyanobacterial blooms.

Mapping eutrophication risk from climate change: Future phosphorus concentrations in English rivers

Climate change is expected to increase eutrophication risk in rivers yet few studies identify the timescale or spatial extent of such impacts. Phosphorus concentration, considered the primary driver of eutrophication risk in English rivers, may increase through reduced dilution particularly if river flows are lower in summer. Detailed models can indicate change in catchment phosphorus concentrations but targeted support for mitigation measures requires a national scale evaluation of risk. In this study, a load apportionment model is used to describe the current relationship between flow and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) at 115 river sites across England. These relationships are used to estimate TRP concentrations for the 2050s under 11 climate change driven scenarios of future river flows and under scenarios of both current and higher levels of sewage treatment. National maps of change indicate a small but inconsistent increase in annual average TRP concentrations with a greater change in summer. Reducing the TRP concentration of final sewage effluent to 0.5mg/L P for all upstream sewage treatment works was inadequate to meet existing P standards required through the EU Water Framework Directive, indicating that more needs to be done, including efforts to reduce diffuse pollution.

Impact assessment of projected climate change on diffuse phosphorous loss in Xin'anjiang catchment, China

Diffuse nutrient loss is a serious threat to water security and has severely deteriorated water quality throughout the world. Xin'anjiang catchment, as a main drinking water source for Hangzhou City, has been a national concern for water environment protection with payment for watershed services construction. Detection of diffuse phosphorous (DP) pollution dynamics under climate change is significant for sustainable water quality management. In this study, the impact of projected climate change on DP load was analyzed using SWAT to simulate the future changes of diffuse components (carriers: water discharge and sediment; nutrient: DP) at both station and sub-catchment scales under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Results showed that wetting and warming years were expected with increasing tendencies of both precipitation and temperature in the two future periods (2020s: 2021~2030, 2030s: 2031~2040) except in the 2020s in the RCP2.6 scenario, and the annual average increasing ratios of precipitation and temperature reached - 1.79~3.79% and 0.48~1.27 °C, respectively, comparing with those in the baseline (2000s: 2001~2010). Climate change evidently altered annual and monthly average water discharge and sediment load, while it has a remarkable impact on the timing and monthly value of DP load at station scale. DP load tended to increase in the non-flood season at Yuliang due to strengthened nutrient flushing from rice land into rivers with increasing precipitation and enhanced phosphorous cycle in soil layers with increasing temperature, while it tended to decrease in the flood season at Yuliang and in most months at Tunxi due to restricted phosphorous reaction with reduced dissolved oxygen content and enhanced dilution effect. Spatial variability existed in the changes of sediment load and DP load at sub-catchment scale due to climate change. DP load tended to decrease in most sub-catchments and was the most remarkable in the RCP8.5 scenario (2020s, - 9.00~2.63%; 2030s, - 11.16~7.89%), followed by RCP2.6 (2020s, - 10.00~2.90%; 2030s, - 9.00~6.63%) and RCP4.5 (2020s, - 6.81~5.49%, 2030s, - 10.00~9.09%) scenarios. Decreasing of DP load mainly aggregated in the western and eastern mountainous regions, while it tended to increase in the northern and middle regions. This study was expected to provide insights into diffuse nutrient loss control and management in Xin'anjiang catchment, and scientific references for the implementation of water environmental protection in China.

Integrated climate-chemical indicators of diffuse pollution from land to water

Management of agricultural diffuse pollution to water remains a challenge and is influenced by the complex interactions of rainfall-runoff pathways, soil and nutrient management, agricultural landscape heterogeneity and biogeochemical cycling in receiving water bodies. Amplified cycles of weather can also influence nutrient loss to water although they are less considered in policy reviews. Here, we present the development of climate-chemical indicators of diffuse pollution in highly monitored catchments in Western Europe. Specifically, we investigated the influences and relationships between weather processes amplified by the North Atlantic Oscillation during a sharp upward trend (2010–2016) and the patterns of diffuse nitrate and phosphorus pollution in rivers. On an annual scale, we found correlations between local catchment-scale nutrient concentrations in rivers and the influence of larger, oceanic-scale climate patterns defined by the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation. These influences were catchment-specific showing positive, negative or no correlation according to a typology. Upward trends in these decadal oscillations may override positive benefits of local management in some years or indicate greater benefits in other years. Developing integrated climate-chemical indicators into catchment monitoring indicators will provide a new and important contribution to water quality management objectives.

Handling the phosphorus paradox in agriculture and natural ecosystems: Scarcity, necessity, and burden of P

This special issue of Ambio compiles a series of contributions made at the 8th International Phosphorus Workshop (IPW8), held in September 2016 in Rostock, Germany. The introducing overview article summarizes major published scientific findings in the time period from IPW7 (2015) until recently, including presentations from IPW8. The P issue was subdivided into four themes along the logical sequence of P utilization in production, environmental, and societal systems: (1) Sufficiency and efficiency of P utilization, especially in animal husbandry and crop production; (2) P recycling: technologies and product applications; (3) P fluxes and cycling in the environment; and (4) P governance. The latter two themes had separate sessions for the first time in the International Phosphorus Workshops series; thus, this overview presents a scene-setting rather than an overview of the latest research for these themes. In summary, this paper details new findings in agricultural and environmental P research, which indicate reduced P inputs, improved management options, and provide translations into governance options for a more sustainable P use.

Long-term variations in sediment heavy metals of a reservoir with changing trophic states: Implications for the impact of climate change

Two dated sediment cores from the Miyun Reservoir of Beijing in China were analyzed to reconstruct the pollution history of heavy metals including cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn) as well as phosphorus (P). Enrichment factor (EF) and geoaccumulation index (I_geo) were applied to assess the enrichment status of heavy metals. Average EF and I_geo values indicated that the studied heavy metals in the sediments mainly originated from non-point source pollution and soil-water erosion, showing low ecological risks. In addition, correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) identified that Cd, Zn, and P were mainly from agricultural diffusion pollution caused by utilization of the phosphate fertilizer; Zn, Ni, and Cr originated from soil erosion. PCA analysis was further conducted to investigate the relationships among meteorological factors, algae-dominant total organic carbon (TOC), and heavy metals. Results showed that algae-dominant TOC had strong positive correlation with temperature, which can be explained by that increased temperature accelerated the growth of algae. Meanwhile the opposite loadings between algae-dominant TOC and heavy metal suggested that primary production played an important role in migration and transformation of metals. Moreover, stepwise multiple regression models showed that Fe was sensitive to temperature, which accounted for approximately 39.0% and 40.1% of the variations in Fe of two sediment cores, respectively. Fe showed significant decreasing trends during the past 50years. Reductive environment of water-sediment interface caused by increasing temperature probably contributed to the restoration of ferric iron, resulting in the release of soluble Fe to overlying waters. Future climate change with elevated temperature and extreme weather events will aggravate the ecological risk of heavy metals in water environment due to the enhanced leaching effect and non-point source pollution as well as the release of heavy metals from sediments to water environment.

Socio-environmental consideration of phosphorus flows in the urban sanitation chain of contrasting cities

Understanding how cities can transform organic waste into a valuable resource is critical to urban sustainability. The capture and recycling of phosphorus (P), and other essential nutrients, from human excreta is particularly important as an alternative organic fertilizer source for agriculture. However, the complex set of socio-environmental factors influencing urban human excreta management is not yet sufficiently integrated into sustainable P research. Here, we synthesize information about the pathways P can take through urban sanitation systems along with barriers and facilitators to P recycling across cities. We examine five case study cities by using a sanitation chains approach: Accra, Ghana; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Beijing, China; Baltimore, USA; and London, England. Our cross-city comparison shows that London and Baltimore recycle a larger percentage of P from human excreta back to agricultural lands than other cities, and that there is a large diversity in socio-environmental factors that affect the patterns of recycling observed across cities. Our research highlights conditions that may be "necessary but not sufficient" for P recycling, including access to capital resources. Path dependencies of large sanitation infrastructure investments in the Global North contrast with rapidly urbanizing cities in the Global South, which present opportunities for alternative sanitation development pathways. Understanding such city-specific social and environmental barriers to P recycling options could help address multiple interacting societal objectives related to sanitation and provide options for satisfying global agricultural nutrient demand.

The role of mobilisation and delivery processes on contrasting dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus exports in groundwater fed catchments

Diffuse transfer of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in agricultural catchments is controlled by the mobilisation of sources and their delivery to receiving waters. While plot scale experiments have focused on mobilisation processes, many catchment scale studies have hitherto concentrated on the controls of dominant flow pathways on nutrient delivery. To place mobilisation and delivery at a catchment scale, this study investigated their relative influence on contrasting nitrate-N and soluble P concentrations and N:P ratios in two shallow groundwater fed catchments with different land use (grassland and arable) on the Atlantic seaboard of Europe. Detailed datasets of N and P inputs, concentrations in shallow groundwater and concentrations in receiving streams were analysed over a five year period (October 2010-September 2015). Results showed that nitrate-N and soluble P concentrations in shallow groundwater give a good indication of stream concentrations, which suggests a dominant control of mobilisation processes on stream exports. Near-stream attenuation of nitrate-N (-30%), likely through denitrification and dilution, and enrichment in soluble P (+100%), through soil-groundwater interactions, were similar in both catchments. The soil, climate and land use controls on mobilisation were also investigated. Results showed that grassland tended to limit nitrate-N leaching as compared to arable land, but grassland could also contribute to increased P solubilisation. In the context of land use change in these groundwater fed systems, the risk of pollution swapping between N and P must be carefully considered, particularly for interactions of land use with soil chemistry and climate.

Sources of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions to Irish rivers and coastal waters: Estimates from a nutrient load apportionment framework

More than half of surface water bodies in Europe are at less than good ecological status according to Water Framework Directive assessments, and diffuse pollution from agriculture remains a major, but not the only, cause of this poor performance. Agri-environmental policy and land management practices have, in many areas, reduced nutrient emissions to water. However, additional measures may be required in Ireland to further decouple the relationship between agricultural productivity and emissions to water, which is of vital importance given on-going agricultural intensification. The Source Load Apportionment Model (SLAM) framework characterises sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) emissions to water at a range of scales from sub-catchment to national. The SLAM synthesises land use and physical characteristics to predict emissions from point (wastewater, industry discharges and septic tank systems) and diffuse sources (agriculture, forestry, etc.). The predicted annual nutrient emissions were assessed against monitoring data for 16 major river catchments covering 50% of the area of Ireland. At national scale, results indicate that total average annual emissions to surface water in Ireland are over 2700tyr^-1 of P and 82,000tyr^-1 of N. The proportional contributions from individual sources show that the main sources of P are from municipal wastewater treatment plants and agriculture, with wide variations across the country related to local anthropogenic pressures and the hydrogeological setting. Agriculture is the main source of N emissions to water across all regions of Ireland. These policy-relevant results synthesised large amounts of information in order to identify the dominant sources of nutrients at regional and local scales, contributing to the national nutrient risk assessment of Irish water bodies.

Use of spatially distributed time-integrated sediment sampling networks and distributed fine sediment modelling to inform catchment management

Under the EU Water Framework Directive, suspended sediment is omitted from environmental quality standards and compliance targets. This omission is partly explained by difficulties in assessing the complex dose-response of ecological communities. But equally, it is hindered by a lack of spatially distributed estimates of suspended sediment variability across catchments. In this paper, we demonstrate the inability of traditional, discrete sampling campaigns for assessing exposure to fine sediment. Sampling frequencies based on Environmental Quality Standard protocols, whilst reflecting typical manual sampling constraints, are unable to determine the magnitude of sediment exposure with an acceptable level of precision. Deviations from actual concentrations range between -35 and +20% based on the interquartile range of simulations. As an alternative, we assess the value of low-cost, suspended sediment sampling networks for quantifying suspended sediment transfer (SST). In this study of the 362 km² upland Esk catchment we observe that spatial patterns of sediment flux are consistent over the two year monitoring period across a network of 17 monitoring sites. This enables the key contributing sub-catchments of Butter Beck (SST: 1141 t km² yr^-1) and Glaisdale Beck (SST: 841 t km² yr^-1) to be identified. The time-integrated samplers offer a feasible alternative to traditional infrequent and discrete sampling approaches for assessing spatio-temporal changes in contamination. In conjunction with a spatially distributed diffuse pollution model (SCIMAP), time-integrated sediment sampling is an effective means of identifying critical sediment source areas in the catchment, which can better inform sediment management strategies for pollution prevention and control.

Linking terrestrial phosphorus inputs to riverine export across the United States

Humans have greatly accelerated phosphorus (P) flows from land to aquatic ecosystems, causing eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia. A variety of statistical and mechanistic models have been used to explore the relationship between P management on land and P losses to waterways, but our ability to predict P losses from watersheds often relies on small scale catchment studies, where detailed measurements can be made, or global scale models that that are often too coarse-scaled to be used directly in the management decision-making process. Here we constructed spatially explicit datasets of terrestrial P inputs and outputs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) for 2012. We use this dataset to improve understanding of P sources and balances at the national scale and to investigate whether well-standardized input data at the continental scale can be used to improve predictions of hydrologic P export from watersheds across the U.S. We estimate that in 2012 agricultural lands received 0.19 Tg more P as fertilizer and confined manure than was harvested in major crops. Approximately 0.06 Tg P was lost to waterways as sewage and detergent nationally based on per capita loads in 2012. We compared two approaches for calculating non-agricultural P waste export to waterways, and found that estimates based on per capita P loads from sewage and detergent were 50% greater than Discharge Monitoring Report Pollutant Loading Tool. This suggests that the tool is likely underestimating P export in waste the CONUS scale. TP and DIP concentrations and TP yields were generally correlated more strongly with runoff than with P inputs or P balances, but even the relationships between runoff and P export were weak. Including P inputs as independent variables increased the predictive capacity of the best-fit models by at least 20%, but together inputs and runoff explained 40% of the variance in P concentration and 46-54% of the variance in P yield. By developing and applying a high-resolution P budget for the CONUS this study confirms that both hydrology and P inputs and sinks play important roles in aquatic P loading across a wide range of environments.

Determining the Effect of Drying Time on Phosphorus Solubilization from Three Agricultural Soils under Climate Change Scenarios

Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying-rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.

Real-time monitoring of nutrients and dissolved organic matter in rivers: Capturing event dynamics, technological opportunities and future directions

Excessive riverine nutrient concentrations threaten aquatic ecosystem structure and functioning and can pose substantial risks to human health. Robust monitoring strategies are therefore required to generate reliable estimates of river nutrient loads and to improve understanding of the catchment processes that drive nutrient fluxes. Furthermore, these data are vital for prediction of future trends under changing environmental conditions and thus the development of appropriate mitigation measures. In recent years, technological developments have led to an increase in the use of in-situ nutrient analysers, which enable measurements at far higher temporal resolutions than can be achieved with discrete sampling and subsequent laboratory analysis. In this paper, we review the principles underlying the key techniques used for in-situ nutrient monitoring and highlight both the advantages, opportunities and challenges associated with high-resolution sampling programs. We then suggest how adaptive monitoring strategies, comprising several different temporal sample frequencies, controlled by one or more 'trigger variables' (e.g. river stage, turbidity, or nutrient concentration), can advance our understanding of catchment nutrient dynamics while simultaneously overcoming many of the practical and economic challenges encountered in typical in-situ river nutrient monitoring applications. We present examples of short-term variability in river nutrient dynamics, driven by complex catchment behaviour, which support our case for the development of monitoring systems that can adapt in real-time to rapid changes in environmental conditions. Finally, we suggest future research directions based on emerging technologies in this field.