Integrating resilience thinking and optimisation for conservation

Bridging adaptive management and reinforcement learning for more robust decisions

From out-competing grandmasters in chess to informing high-stakes healthcare decisions, emerging methods from artificial intelligence are increasingly capable of making complex and strategic decisions in diverse, high-dimensional and uncertain situations. But can these methods help us devise robust strategies for managing environmental systems under great uncertainty? Here we explore how reinforcement learning (RL), a subfield of artificial intelligence, approaches decision problems through a lens similar to adaptive environmental management: learning through experience to gradually improve decisions with updated knowledge. We review where RL holds promise for improving evidence-informed adaptive management decisions even when classical optimization methods are intractable and discuss technical and social issues that arise when applying RL to adaptive management problems in the environmental domain. Our synthesis suggests that environmental management and computer science can learn from one another about the practices, promises and perils of experience-based decision-making. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

A balancing act: Principles, criteria and indicator framework to operationalize social-ecological resilience of forests

Against a background of intensifying climate-induced disturbances, the need to enhance the resilience of forests and forest management is gaining urgency. In forest management, multiple trade-offs exist between different demands as well as across and within temporal and spatial scales. However, methods to assess resilience that consider these trade-offs are presently lacking. Here we propose a hierarchical framework of principles, criteria, and indicators to assess the resilience of a social-ecological system by focusing on the mechanisms behind resilience. This hierarchical framework balances trade-offs between mechanisms, different parts of the social-ecological system, ecosystem services, and spatial as well as temporal scales. The framework was developed to be used in a participatory manner in forest management planning. It accounts for the major parts of the forest-related social-ecological system and considers the multiple trade-offs involved. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by applying it to a landscape dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in Central Europe, managed for three different management goals. The framework highlights how forest resilience varies with the pursued management goals and related management strategies. The framework is flexible and can be applied to various forest management contexts as part of a participatory process with stakeholders. It thus is an important step towards operationalizing social-ecological resilience in forest management systems.

Assessing Landscape Instability through Land-Cover Change Based on the Hemeroby Index (Lithuanian Example)

The increasing anthropogenic impact on landscapes globally has increased interest in assessing landscape naturalness. This study assessed the changes in land cover in Lithuania and identified the most common reasons for land-use change. Coordination of Environment Information (CORINE) land-cover data were used to assess the changes in land cover naturalness in Lithuania from 1995 to 2018. Land-cover types were ranked according to the hemeroby index, ranging from natural landscape with no human impact to anthropogenic landscapes with excessively strong human impact. Land use trends in Lithuania were related to agricultural and forestry activities. During the analysed period, these areas decreased by as much as 11.19%, and the number of areas with a particularly strong impact from human activities also decreased. Land cover naturalness did increase in areas less suitable for agriculture. The impact of human activities on the naturalness of the landscape needs to be explored in detail at the local level, which should be followed by appropriate spatial-planning decisions to ensure ecological balance through as many sustainable solutions as possible, especially with the European Commission adoption the European Green Deal.

The forecast trap

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model-based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

Land-use Decisions in Complex Commons: Engaging Multiple Stakeholders through Foresight and Scenario Building in Indonesia

In the midst of global change uncertainties, Indonesian spatial planning authorities are developing 20-year strategies. However, the lack of collaborative engagement of stakeholders and unclear methodology around using futures studies in addressing land management undermine such plans and affect environmental governance. A crucial question is how to link a future-oriented process with governance transformation processes, particularly related to land-use planning and management. To address this issue, we used a co-elaborative scenario-building approach, referred to as participatory prospective analysis (PPA), to facilitate the creation of local multistakeholder platforms considering future-oriented perspectives. The PPA design combines equally the knowledge of local communities, technical experts and decision-makers, and was applied in a series of sequential multistakeholder workshops in two regencies in Indonesia, followed by public consultations on the main results. In both regencies, participants agreed on a common topic related to spatial planning in their jurisdiction to be explored with a 20-year time horizon. They reached consensus on relevant variables, analyzed their dependence/influence, and developed several plausible yet contrasting scenarios for land management and road maps with guidelines for the implementation of desired outcomes. The PPA approach stimulated stakeholder engagement and ensured that more local voices were not only heard but also duly included in the process. It allowed participants to consider strategies that would otherwise have been less readily accepted by their respective organizations. It showed that it is possible to improve existing spatial planning processes in Indonesia by integrating tools for a more inclusive and long-term future-oriented collaborative approach.

Rhesus macaques build new social connections after a natural disaster

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and droughts. Understanding resilience and vulnerability to these intense stressors and their aftermath could reveal adaptations to extreme environmental change. In 2017, Puerto Rico suffered its worst natural disaster, Hurricane Maria, which left 3,000 dead and provoked a mental health crisis. Cayo Santiago island, home to a population of rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta), was devastated by the same storm. We compared social networks of two groups of macaques before and after the hurricane and found an increase in affiliative social connections, driven largely by monkeys most socially isolated before Hurricane Maria. Further analysis revealed monkeys invested in building new relationships rather than strengthening existing ones. Social adaptations to environmental instability might predispose rhesus macaques to success in rapidly changing anthropogenic environments.

Knowledge Structures and Components of Rural Resilience in the 2010s: Conceptual Development and Implications

Resilience is being widely adopted as a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding sustainability dynamics, despite the conceptual challenges in developing proxies and indicators for researchers and policy makers. In our study, we observed how the concept of resilience undergoes continued extension within the rural resilience literature. We comprehensively reviewed rural resilience literature using keyword co-occurrence network (KCN) analysis and a systematic review of shortlisted papers. We conducted the KCN analysis for 1186 papers to characterize the state of the rural resilience literature, and systematically reviewed 36 shortlisted papers to further examine how rural resilience analysis and its assessment tools are helping understand the complexity and interdependence of rural social-ecological systems, over three three-year periods from 2010 to 2018. The results show that the knowledge structure built by the high frequency of co-occurrence keywords remains similar over the three-year periods, including climate change, resilience, vulnerability, adaptation, and management, whereas the components of knowledge have greatly expanded, indicating an increased understanding of rural system dynamics. Through the systematic review, we found that developing resilience assessment tools is often designed as a process to strengthen adaptive capacity at the household or community level in response to global processes of climate change and economic globalization. Furthermore, community resilience is found to be an interesting knowledge component that has characterized rural resilience literature in the 2010s. Based on our study, we summarized conceptual characteristics of rural resilience and discussed the challenges and implications for researchers and policy makers.

Resilience Viewed through the Lens of Climate Change and Water Management

Resilience is not a new idea but there has been an upsurge in efforts to operationalize the concept within water management. This review begins with a synopsis of related themes around persistent and emerging pressures on freshwaters; environmental thresholds (or tipping points); ‘safe’ operating conditions; multiple stable states; regime shifts. A case is made for viewing and managing the resilience of water systems at nested scales. Indicators are needed to track evolving climate risks as well as to measure socio-ecological responses. Catchment properties can identify those river systems that are more or less likely to return to a pre-disturbance state; resilience further depends on institutional and social landscapes. Ideally, allied notions of resistance and reliability are applied alongside resilience to broaden the portfolio of adaptation measures. Water managers would also benefit from more consistent use of resilience terminology; incentives to build back better after catastrophes; strategic monitoring of incipient threats and tipping points; availability of long-term adaptation indicators; coordinated efforts to reduce non-climatic pressures on freshwaters (especially in headwaters); evidence-based, practical guidance on adaptation measures that build resilience.

Forecasting mangrove ecosystem degradation utilizing quantifiable eco-physiological resilience -A study from Indian Sundarbans

Sundarbans mangrove forest, the world's largest continuous mangrove forests expanding across India and Bangladesh, in recent times, is immensely threatened by degradation stress due to natural stressors and anthropogenic disturbances. The degradation across the 19 mangrove forests in Indian Sundarbans was evaluated by eight environmental criteria typical to mangrove ecosystem. In an attempt to find competent predictors for mangrove ecosystem degradation, key eco-physiological resilience trait complex specific for mangroves from 4922 individuals for physiological analyses with gene expression and 603 individuals for leaf tissue distributions from 16 mangroves and 15 associate species was assessed along the degradation gradient. The degradation data was apparently categorized into four and CDFA discriminates 97% of the eco-physiological resilience data into corresponding four groups. Predictive Bayesian regression models and mixed effects models indicate osmolyte accumulation and thickness of water storage tissue as primary predictors of each of the degradation criteria that appraise the degradation status of mangrove ecosystem. RDA analyses well represented response variables of degradation explained by explanatory resilience variables. We hypothesize that with the help of our predictive models the policy makers could trace even the cryptic process of mangrove degradation and save the respective forests in time by proposing appropriate action plans.

Reframing conservation physiology to be more inclusive, integrative, relevant and forward-looking: reflections and a horizon scan

Applying physiological tools, knowledge and concepts to understand conservation problems (i.e. conservation physiology) has become commonplace and confers an ability to understand mechanistic processes, develop predictive models and identify cause-and-effect relationships. Conservation physiology is making contributions to conservation solutions; the number of 'success stories' is growing, but there remain unexplored opportunities for which conservation physiology shows immense promise and has the potential to contribute to major advances in protecting and restoring biodiversity. Here, we consider how conservation physiology has evolved with a focus on reframing the discipline to be more inclusive and integrative. Using a 'horizon scan', we further explore ways in which conservation physiology can be more relevant to pressing conservation issues of today (e.g. addressing the Sustainable Development Goals; delivering science to support the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration), as well as more forward-looking to inform emerging issues and policies for tomorrow. Our horizon scan provides evidence that, as the discipline of conservation physiology continues to mature, it provides a wealth of opportunities to promote integration, inclusivity and forward-thinking goals that contribute to achieving conservation gains. To advance environmental management and ecosystem restoration, we need to ensure that the underlying science (such as that generated by conservation physiology) is relevant with accompanying messaging that is straightforward and accessible to end users.

Rebuilding global fisheries under uncertainty

Current and future prospects for successfully rebuilding global fisheries remain debated due to uncertain stock status, variable management success, and disruptive environmental change. While scientists routinely account for some of this uncertainty in population models, the mechanisms by which this translates into decision-making and policy are problematic and can lead to unintentional overexploitation. Here, we explicitly track the role of measurement uncertainty and environmental variation in the decision-making process for setting catch quotas. Analyzing 109 well-sampled stocks from all oceans, we show that current practices may attain 55% recovery on average, while richer decision methods borrowed from robotics yield 85% recovery of global stocks by midcentury, higher economic returns, and greater robustness to environmental surprises. These results challenge the consensus that global fisheries can be rebuilt by existing approaches alone, while also underscoring that rebuilding stocks may still be achieved by improved decision-making tools that optimally manage this uncertainty.

Resolving the Measurement Uncertainty Paradox in Ecological Management

Ecological management and decision-making typically focus on uncertainty about the future, but surprisingly little is known about how to account for uncertainty of the present: that is, the realities of having only partial or imperfect measurements. Our primary paradigms for handling decisions under uncertainty-the precautionary principle and optimal control-have so far given contradictory results. This paradox is best illustrated in the example of fisheries management, where many ideas that guide thinking about ecological decision-making were first developed. We find that simplistic optimal control approaches have repeatedly concluded that a manager should increase catch quotas when faced with greater uncertainty about the fish biomass. Current best practices take a more precautionary approach, decreasing catch quotas by a fixed amount to account for uncertainty. Using comparisons to both simulated and historical catch data, we find that neither approach is sufficient to avoid stock collapses under moderate observational uncertainty. Using partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) methods, we demonstrate how this paradox arises from flaws in the standard theory, which contributes to overexploitation of fisheries and increased probability of economic and ecological collapse. In contrast, we find that POMDP-based management avoids such overexploitation while also generating higher economic value. These results have significant implications for how we handle uncertainty in both fisheries and ecological management more generally.

The Concept of Regulating Forest Management in a Region Subject to High Environmental Pressure

In modern forestry, the complexity of the planning process is increasing, specifically in the context of the sustainable use of forest resources and its adaptation to climate changes. This article presents the concept of forest use regulation promoting the sustainable forestry development in forest management planning. A method for defining a synthetic criterion of assessing important features of stand structure was proposed, which would enable the classification of stands in terms of needs and the urgency of their transformation (reconstruction) or suitability for longer standing. As a result, such a concept may ensure the preservation of the relative uniformity of logging use and the improvement of age structure as well as an increase of natural values of the forest, regardless of a stand’s age. The concept was tested on a large forest complex (over 0.5 million hectares) subjected to intense environmental pressure (Silesian Region in Poland). We prepared long-term individualistic development forecasts, separately for area and volume. Based on this, we followed the cutting uniformity principle in the analysed time period by calculating a long-term average of cutting allowance. It was determined by averaging the projected usage size in moving window and eventually was adopted as the cutting upper limit in the whole analysed period. The proposed size of cuts in each period resulted from the relation between the average value and the forecast. Three sets of stands of the differentiated urgency of interventions were distinguished: I—well-stocked and stable stands (no need of intervention)—55% of stands area, II – acceptable stands (not urgent intervention needed)—35% and III—poor stands (urgent intervention needed)—10%. This concept joins top-down and bottom-up approach of cutting uniformity that focuses stand’s status instead of its age or dimensions.

When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe

Optimizing economic welfare in environmental governance has been criticized for delivering short-term gains at the expense of long-term environmental degradation. Different from economic optimization, the concepts of sustainability and the more recent safe operating space have been used to derive policies in environmental governance. However, a formal comparison between these three policy paradigms is still missing, leaving policy makers uncertain which paradigm to apply. Here, we develop a better understanding of their interrelationships, using a stylized model of human-environment tipping elements. We find that no paradigm guarantees fulfilling requirements imposed by another paradigm and derive simple heuristics for the conditions under which these trade-offs occur. We show that the absence of such a master paradigm is of special relevance for governing real-world tipping systems such as climate, fisheries, and farming, which may reside in a parameter regime where economic optimization is neither sustainable nor safe.

Indicators of transitions in biological systems

In the face of global biodiversity declines, predicting the fate of biological systems is a key goal in ecology. One popular approach is the search for early warning signals (EWSs) based on alternative stable states theory. In this review, we cover the theory behind nonlinearity in dynamic systems and techniques to detect the loss of resilience that can indicate state transitions. We describe the research done on generic abundance-based signals of instability that are derived from the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which represent the genesis of EWSs research. We highlight some of the issues facing the detection of such signals in biological systems - which are inherently complex and show low signal-to-noise ratios. We then document research on alternative signals of instability, including measuring shifts in spatial autocorrelation and trait dynamics, and discuss potential future directions for EWSs research based on detailed demographic and phenotypic data. We set EWSs research in the greater field of predictive ecology and weigh up the costs and benefits of simplicity vs. complexity in predictive models, and how the available data should steer the development of future methods. Finally, we identify some key unanswered questions that, if solved, could improve the applicability of these methods.

A criteria and indicators monitoring framework for food forestry embedded in the principles of ecological restoration

Food forestry is a burgeoning practice in North America, representing a strong multifunctional approach that combines agriculture, forestry, and ecological restoration. The Galiano Conservancy Association (GCA), a community conservation, restoration, and educational organization on Galiano Island, British Columbia in Canada, recently has created two food forests on their protected forested lands: one with primarily non-native species and the other comprising native species. These projects, aimed at food production, education, and promotion of local food security and sustainability, are also intended to contribute to the overall ecological integrity of the landscape. Monitoring is essential for assessing how effectively a project is meeting its goal and thus informing its adaptive management. Yet, presently, there are no comprehensive monitoring frameworks for food forestry available. To fill this need, this study developed a generic Criteria and Indicators (C&I) monitoring framework for food forestry, embedded in ecological restoration principles, by employing qualitative content analysis of 61 literature resources and semi-structured interviews with 16 experts in the fields of food forestry and ecological restoration. The generic C&I framework comprises 14 criteria, 39 indicators, and 109 measures and is intended to guide a comprehensive and systematic assessment for food forest projects. The GCA adapted the generic C&I framework to develop a customized monitoring framework. The Galiano C&I monitoring framework has comprehensive suite of monitoring parameters, which are collectively address multiple values and goals.

Signatures of the collapse and incipient recovery of an overexploited marine ecosystem

The Northwest Atlantic cod stocks collapsed in the early 1990s and have yet to recover, despite the subsequent establishment of a continuing fishing moratorium. Efforts to understand the collapse and lack of recovery have so far focused mainly on the dynamics of commercially harvested species. Here, we use data from a 33-year scientific trawl survey to determine to which degree the signatures of the collapse and recovery of the cod are apparent in the spatial and temporal dynamics of the broader groundfish community. Over this 33-year period, the groundfish community experienced four phases of change: (i) a period of rapid, synchronous biomass collapse in most species, (ii) followed by a regime shift in community composition with a concomitant loss of functional diversity, (iii) followed in turn by periods of slow compositional recovery, and (iv) slow biomass growth. Our results demonstrate how a community-wide perspective can reveal new aspects of the dynamics of collapse and recovery unavailable from the analysis of individual species or a combination of a small number of species. Overall, we found evidence that such community-level signals should be useful for designing more effective management strategies to ensure the persistence of exploited marine ecosystems.

Species coexistence and the superior ability of an invasive species to exploit a facilitation cascade habitat

Facilitation cascades generated by co-occurring foundation species can enhance the abundance and diversity of associated organisms. However, it remains poorly understood how differences among native and invasive species in their ability to exploit these positive interactions contribute to emergent patterns of community structure and biotic acceptance. On intertidal shorelines in New England, we examined the patterns of coexistence between the native mud crabs and the invasive Asian shore crab in and out of a facilitation cascade habitat generated by mid intertidal cordgrass and ribbed mussels. These crab species co-occurred in low intertidal cobbles adjacent to the cordgrass–mussel beds, despite experimental findings that the dominant mud crabs can kill and displace Asian shore crabs and thereby limit their successful recruitment to their shared habitat. A difference between the native and invasive species in their utilization of the facilitation cascade likely contributes to this pattern. Only the Asian shore crabs inhabit the cordgrass–mussel beds, despite experimental evidence that both species can similarly benefit from stress amelioration in the beds. Moreover, only Asian shore crabs settle in the beds, which function as a nursery habitat free of lethal mud crabs, and where their recruitment rates are particularly high (nearly an order of magnitude higher than outside beds). Persistence of invasive adult Asian shore crabs among the dominant native mud crabs in the low cobble zone is likely enhanced by a spillover effect of the facilitation cascade in which recruitment-limited Asian shore crabs settle in the mid intertidal cordgrass–mussel beds and subsidize their vulnerable populations in the adjacent low cobble zone. This would explain why the abundances of Asian shore crabs in cobbles are doubled when adjacent to facilitation cascade habitats. The propensity for this exotic species to utilize habitats created by facilitation cascades, despite the lack of a shared evolutionary history, contributes to species coexistence and the acceptance of invasives into a diverse community.

Compositional diversity of rehabilitated tropical lands supports multiple ecosystem services and buffers uncertainties

High landscape diversity is assumed to increase the number and level of ecosystem services. However, the interactions between ecosystem service provision, disturbance and landscape composition are poorly understood. Here we present a novel approach to include uncertainty in the optimization of land allocation for improving the provision of multiple ecosystem services. We refer to the rehabilitation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ecuador including two types of both afforestation and pasture rehabilitation, together with a succession option. Our results show that high compositional landscape diversity supports multiple ecosystem services (multifunction effect). This implicitly provides a buffer against uncertainty. Our work shows that active integration of uncertainty is only important when optimizing single or highly correlated ecosystem services and that the multifunction effect on landscape diversity is stronger than the uncertainty effect. This is an important insight to support a land-use planning based on ecosystem services.

Land use becomes more diverse when it considers uncertain interactions of multiple ecosystem services. Here, Knoke and colleagues show that uncertainty plays a larger role if ecosystem services are optimized only for a single service, or if services correlate.

Resilience and Resource Management

Resilience is an umbrella concept with many different shades of meaning. The use of the term has grown over the past several decades to the point that by now, many disciplines have their own definitions and metrics. In this paper, we aim to provide a context and focus for linkages of resilience to natural resources management. We consider differences and similarities in resilience as presented in several disciplines relevant to resource management. We present a conceptual framework that includes environmental drivers, management interventions, and system responses cast in terms of system resilience, as well as a process for decision making that allows learning about system resilience through experience and incorporation of that learning into management. We discuss the current state of operational management for resilience, and suggest ways to improve it. Finally, we describe the challenges in managing for resilience and offer some recommendations about the scientific information needs and scientific issues relevant to making resilience a more meaningful component of natural resources management.

Informing Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) with numerical modelling: A case-study on shellfish aquaculture in Malpeque Bay (Eastern Canada)

A moratorium on further bivalve leasing was established in 1999-2000 in Prince Edward Island (Canada). Recently, a marine spatial planning process was initiated explore potential mussel culture expansion in Malpeque Bay. This study focuses on the effects of a projected expansion scenario on productivity of existing leases and available suspended food resources. The aim is to provide a robust scientific assessment using available datasets and three modelling approaches ranging in complexity: (1) a connectivity analysis among culture areas; (2) a scenario analysis of organic seston dynamics based on a simplified biogeochemical model; and (3) a scenario analysis of phytoplankton dynamics based on an ecosystem model. These complementary approaches suggest (1) new leases can affect existing culture both through direct connectivity and through bay-scale effects driven by the overall increase in mussel biomass, and (2) a net reduction of phytoplankton within the bounds of its natural variation in the area.

Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions

In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and adaptation will be required to ensure that conservation efforts fully consider the value of geodiversity for supporting biodiversity in the face of a changing climate.

Understanding protected area resilience: a multi-scale, social-ecological approach

Protected areas (PAs) remain central to the conservation of biodiversity. Classical PAs were conceived as areas that would be set aside to maintain a natural state with minimal human influence. However, global environmental change and growing cross-scale anthropogenic influences mean that PAs can no longer be thought of as ecological islands that function independently of the broader social-ecological system in which they are located. For PAs to be resilient (and to contribute to broader social-ecological resilience), they must be able to adapt to changing social and ecological conditions over time in a way that supports the long-term persistence of populations, communities, and ecosystems of conservation concern. We extend Ostrom's social-ecological systems framework to consider the long-term persistence of PAs, as a form of land use embedded in social-ecological systems, with important cross-scale feedbacks. Most notably, we highlight the cross-scale influences and feedbacks on PAs that exist from the local to the global scale, contextualizing PAs within multi-scale social-ecological functional landscapes. Such functional landscapes are integral to understand and manage individual PAs for long-term sustainability. We illustrate our conceptual contribution with three case studies that highlight cross-scale feedbacks and social-ecological interactions in the functioning of PAs and in relation to regional resilience. Our analysis suggests that while ecological, economic, and social processes are often directly relevant to PAs at finer scales, at broader scales, the dominant processes that shape and alter PA resilience are primarily social and economic.

Avoiding tipping points in fisheries management through Gaussian process dynamic programming

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian non-parametric approach using a Gaussian process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a stochastic dynamic programming framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favours models without tipping points, leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The Gaussian process dynamic programming (GPDP) performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, as it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

A multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity

An opportunity represents an advantageous combination of circumstances that allows goals to be achieved. We reviewed the nature of opportunity and how it manifests in different subsystems (e.g., biophysical, social, political, economic) as conceptualized in other bodies of literature, including behavior, adoption, entrepreneur, public policy, and resilience literature. We then developed a multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity. We identified 3 types of conservation opportunity: potential, actors remove barriers to problem solving by identifying the capabilities within the system that can be manipulated to create support for conservation action; traction, actors identify windows of opportunity that arise from exogenous shocks, events, or changes that remove barriers to solving problems; and existing, everything is in place for conservation action (i.e., no barriers exist) and an actor takes advantage of the existing circumstances to solve problems. Different leverage points characterize each type of opportunity. Thus, unique stages of opportunity identification or creation and exploitation exist: characterizing the system and defining problems; identifying potential solutions; assessing the feasibility of solutions; identifying or creating opportunities; and taking advantage of opportunities. These stages can be undertaken independently or as part of a situational analysis and typically comprise the first stage, but they can also be conducted iteratively throughout a conservation planning process. Four types of entrepreneur can be identified (business, policy, social, and conservation), each possessing attributes that enable them to identify or create opportunities and take advantage of them. We examined how different types of conservation opportunity manifest in a social-ecological system (the Great Barrier Reef) and how they can be taken advantage of. Our multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity strengthens and legitimizes the concept.

Marine reserves help coastal ecosystems cope with extreme weather

Natural ecosystems have experienced widespread degradation due to human activities. Consequently, enhancing resilience has become a primary objective for conservation. Nature reserves are a favored management tool, but we need clearer empirical tests of whether they can impart resilience. Catastrophic flooding in early 2011 impacted coastal ecosystems across eastern Australia. We demonstrate that marine reserves enhanced the capacity of coral reefs to withstand flood impacts. Reserve reefs resisted the impact of perturbation, whilst fished reefs did not. Changes on fished reefs were correlated with the magnitude of flood impact, whereas variation on reserve reefs was related to ecological variables. Herbivory and coral recruitment are critical ecological processes that underpin reef resilience, and were greater in reserves and further enhanced on reserve reefs near mangroves. The capacity of reserves to mitigate external disturbances and promote ecological resilience will be critical to resisting an increased frequency of climate-related disturbance.

Systematic conservation planning and adaptive management

This article argues that systematic conservation planning (SCP) is an intrinsic part of the adaptive management approach within SANParks and should not be seen as a separate or different initiative. SCP operates within a complex environment that requires a deliberately adaptive approach. The similarities in philosophy, structure and functional elements of the planning process and approach between adaptive management and SCP, as applied within SANParks, are highlighted. The article distils requirements for ensuring that SCP remains strategically adaptive in its approach.Conservation implication: A deliberately adaptive approach to SCP improves its effectiveness in guiding the implementation of conservation actions and is a requirement for effective conservation planning in a complex environment.