Usefulness of Species Traits in Predicting Range Shifts

Convergent Isobilateral Leaves Increase the Risk for Mangroves Facing Human-Induced Rapid Environmental Changes

Understanding plant adaptations in extreme environments is crucial, as these adaptations often confer advantages for survival. However, a significant gap exists regarding the genetic mechanisms underlying these adaptations and their responses to human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC). This study addresses the question of whether genetic convergence occurs among plants with similar adaptive features, specifically focusing on isobilateral leaves in mangrove species. Here, we analyse the genetic convergence of isobilateral leaves in mangroves that have independently adapted to coastal intertidal zones. Our findings reveal that genetic convergence is evident in gene families involved in leaf abaxial and adaxial development, with strong selection pressures identified in photosynthesis and leaf polarity pathways. Despite these adaptations, mangrove species with isobilateral leaves occupy narrower ecological niches and face diminishing suitable habitat areas projected under various HIREC scenarios. These results indicate that while convergent traits enhance local adaptation, they may also increase vulnerability to ongoing environmental changes. This research provides valuable insight into the interplay between genetic adaptation and environmental resilience, underscoring the necessity for targeted biodiversity conservation strategies that safeguard specific adaptive traits amid rapid environmental shifts.

Global Distribution of Alien Mammals Under Climate Change

The recent thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and their Control of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services reaffirmed biological invasions as a major threat to biodiversity. Anticipating biological invasions is crucial for avoiding their ecological and socio-economic impacts, particularly as climate change may provide new opportunities for the establishment and spread of alien species. However, no studies have combined assessments of suitability and dispersal to evaluate the invasion by key taxonomic groups, such as mammals. Using species distribution models, we estimated the potential effect of climate change on the future distributions of 205 alien mammal species by the year 2050 under three different climatic scenarios. We used species dispersal ability to differentiate between suitable areas that may be susceptible to natural dispersal from alien ranges (Spread Potential, SP) and those that may be vulnerable to alien establishment through human-assisted dispersal (Establishment Potential, EP) across 11 zoogeographic realms. Establishment Potential was generally boosted by climate change, showing a clear poleward shift across scenarios, whereas SP was negatively affected by climate change and limited by alien species insularity. These trends were consistent across all realms. Insular ecosystems, while being vulnerable to invasion, may act as geographical traps for alien mammals that lose climatic suitability. In addition, our analysis identified the alien species that are expected to spread or decline the most in each realm, primarily generalists with high invasive potential, as likely foci of future management efforts. In some areas, the possible reduction in suitability for alien mammals could offer opportunities for ecosystem restoration, particularly on islands. In others, increased suitability calls for adequate actions to prevent their arrival and spread. Our findings are potentially valuable in informing synergistic actions addressing both climate change and biological invasion together to safeguard native biodiversity worldwide.

Can internal range structure predict range shifts?

Poleward and uphill range shifts are a common-but variable-response to climate change. We lack understanding regarding this interspecific variation; for example, functional traits show weak or mixed ability to predict range shifts. Characteristics of species' ranges may enhance prediction of range shifts. However, the explanatory power of many range characteristics-especially within-range abundance patterns-remains untested. Here, we introduce a hypothesis framework for predicting range-limit population trends and range shifts from the internal structure of the geographic range, specifically range edge hardness, defined as abundance within range edges relative to the whole range. The inertia hypothesis predicts that high edge abundance facilitates expansions along the leading range edge but creates inertia (either more individuals must disperse or perish) at the trailing range edge such that the trailing edge recedes slowly. In contrast, the limitation hypothesis suggests that hard range edges are the signature of strong limits (e.g. biotic interactions) that force faster contraction of the trailing edge but block expansions at the leading edge of the range. Using a long-term avian monitoring dataset from northern Minnesota, USA, we estimated population trends for 35 trailing-edge species and 18 leading-edge species and modelled their population trends as a function of range edge hardness derived from eBird data. We found limited evidence of associations between range edge hardness and range-limit population trends. Trailing-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be declining, demonstrating weak support for the limitation hypothesis. In contrast, leading-edge species with harder range edges were slightly more likely to be increasing, demonstrating weak support for the inertia hypothesis. These opposing results for the leading and trailing range edges might suggest that different mechanisms underpin range expansions and contractions, respectively. As data and state-of-the-art modelling efforts continue to proliferate, we will be ever better equipped to map abundance patterns within species' ranges, offering opportunities to anticipate range shifts through the lens of the geographic range.

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Hidden impacts of ocean warming and acidification on biological responses of marine animals revealed through meta-analysis

Conflicting results remain on the impacts of climate change on marine organisms, hindering our capacity to predict the future state of marine ecosystems. To account for species-specific responses and for the ambiguous relation of most metrics to fitness, we develop a meta-analytical approach based on the deviation of responses from reference values (absolute change) to complement meta-analyses of directional (relative) changes in responses. Using this approach, we evaluate responses of fish and invertebrates to warming and acidification. We find that climate drivers induce directional changes in calcification, survival, and metabolism, and significant deviations in twice as many biological responses, including physiology, reproduction, behavior, and development. Widespread deviations of responses are detected even under moderate intensity levels of warming and acidification, while directional changes are mostly limited to more severe intensity levels. Because such deviations may result in ecological shifts impacting ecosystem structures and processes, our results suggest that climate change will likely have stronger impacts than those previously predicted based on directional changes alone.

Bringing traits back into the equation: A roadmap to understand species redistribution

Ecological and evolutionary theories have proposed that species traits should be important in mediating species responses to contemporary climate change; yet, empirical evidence has so far provided mixed evidence for the role of behavioral, life history, or ecological characteristics in facilitating or hindering species range shifts. As such, the utility of trait-based approaches to predict species redistribution under climate change has been called into question. We develop the perspective, supported by evidence, that trait variation, if used carefully can have high potential utility, but that past analyses have in many cases failed to identify an explanatory value for traits by not fully embracing the complexity of species range shifts. First, we discuss the relevant theory linking species traits to range shift processes at the leading (expansion) and trailing (contraction) edges of species distributions and highlight the need to clarify the mechanistic basis of trait-based approaches. Second, we provide a brief overview of range shift-trait studies and identify new opportunities for trait integration that consider range-specific processes and intraspecific variability. Third, we explore the circumstances under which environmental and biotic context dependencies are likely to affect our ability to identify the contribution of species traits to range shift processes. Finally, we propose that revealing the role of traits in shaping species redistribution may likely require accounting for methodological variation arising from the range shift estimation process as well as addressing existing functional, geographical, and phylogenetic biases. We provide a series of considerations for more effectively integrating traits as well as extrinsic and methodological factors into species redistribution research. Together, these analytical approaches promise stronger mechanistic and predictive understanding that can help society mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Taking advantage of opportunistically collected historical occurrence data to detect responses to climate change: The case of temperature and Iberian dung beetles

This study introduces a novel approach to leverage high-resolution historical climate data and opportunistically collected historical species occurrence data for detecting adaptive responses to global change. We applied this procedure to the temperature data and the most comprehensive Iberian dataset of dung beetle occurrences as an illustrative example. To understand how populations of different species are responding, we devised a procedure that compares the temporal trend of spatial and temperature variables at the locations and times of all the occurrence data collection (overall trend) with the specific temporal trends among the occurrences of each species. The prevalence of various species responses is linked to life history or taxonomic characteristics, enabling the identification of key factors influencing the propensity to experience different effects from climate change. Our findings suggest that nearly half of the Iberian dung beetle species may be adversely affected by temperature increases, with a geographic shift being the most common response. The results generated through the proposed methodology should be regarded as preliminary information, serving to formulate hypotheses about the diverse responses of species to climate change and aiding in the selection of candidate species capable of coping with challenges posed by changing temperatures.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Body size and life history shape the historical biogeography of tetrapods

Dispersal across biogeographic barriers is a key process determining global patterns of biodiversity as it allows lineages to colonize and diversify in new realms. Here we demonstrate that past biogeographic dispersal events often depended on species' traits, by analysing 7,009 tetrapod species in 56 clades. Biogeographic models incorporating body size or life history accrued more statistical support than trait-independent models in 91% of clades. In these clades, dispersal rates increased by 28-32% for lineages with traits favouring successful biogeographic dispersal. Differences between clades in the effect magnitude of life history on dispersal rates are linked to the strength and type of biogeographic barriers and intra-clade trait variability. In many cases, large body sizes and fast life histories facilitate dispersal success. However, species with small bodies and/or slow life histories, or those with average traits, have an advantage in a minority of clades. Body size-dispersal relationships were related to a clade's average body size and life history strategy. These results provide important new insight into how traits have shaped the historical biogeography of tetrapod lineages and may impact present-day and future biogeographic dispersal.

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Genetic footprints of a rapid and large-scale range expansion: the case of cyclic common vole in Spain

In the Anthropocene, many species are rapidly shifting their ranges in response to human-driven habitat modifications. Studying patterns and genetic signatures of range shifts helps to understand how species cope with environmental disturbances and predict future shifts in the face of global environmental change. We investigated the genetic signature of a contemporary wide-range expansion observed in the Iberian common vole Microtus arvalis asturianus shortly after a colonization event. We used mtDNA and microsatellite data to investigate patterns of genetic diversity, structure, demography, and gene flow across 57 localities covering the historical range of the species and the newly colonized area. The results showed a genetic footprint more compatible with a true range expansion (i.e. the colonization of previously unoccupied areas), than with a model of "colonization from within" (i.e. local expansions from small, unnoticed populations). Genetic diversity measures indicated that the source population was likely located at the NE of the historical range, with a declining gradient of genetic diversity towards the more recently invaded areas. At the expansion front, we observed the greatest gene flow and smallest pairwise differences between nearby localities. Both natural landscape features (rivers) and recent anthropogenic barriers (roads, railways) explained a large proportion of genetic variance among populations and had a significant impact on the colonization pathways used by voles.

Projected northward shifts in eastern red-backed salamanders due to changing climate

Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961-1980 and 2001-2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961-1980 and 2001-2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal-limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal-limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.

Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts

As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.

Amount of bird suitable areas under climate change is modulated by morphological, ecological and geographical traits

Biodiversity is already experiencing the effects of climate change through range expansion, retraction, or relocation, potentializing negative effects of other threats. Future projections already indicate richness reduction and composition modifications of bird communities due to global warming, which may disrupt the provision of key ecological services to ecosystem maintenance. Here, we systematically review the effect of morphological, ecological, and geographical traits on the amount of future suitable area for birds worldwide. Specifically, we tested whether body mass, diet, habitat type, movement pattern, range size, and biogeographic realm affect birds' suitable area. Our search returned 75 studies that modeled the effects of climate change on 1,991 bird species. Our analyses included 1,661 species belonging to 128 families, representing 83% of the total, for which we were able to acquire all the six traits. The proportion of birds' suitable area was affected by range size, body mass, habitat type, and biogeographic realm, while diet and movement pattern showed lower relative importance and were not included in our final model. Contrary to expectations, the proportion of birds' suitable area was negatively related to range size, which may be explained by higher climatic stability predicted in certain areas that harbor species with restricted distribution. In contrast, we observed that birds presenting higher body mass will show an increase of the proportion of suitable area in the future. This is expected due to the high exposure of smaller birds to environmental changes and their difficulty to keep thermoregulation. Our results also indicated a low proportion of suitable area to forest-dependent birds, which is in accordance with their higher vulnerability due to specific requirements for reproduction and feeding. Finally, the proportion of suitable area was low for birds from Oceania, which is expected since the region encompasses small islands isolated from continents, preventing their species from reaching new suitable areas. Our study highlights that different traits should be considered when assessing extinction risk of species based on future projections, helping to improve bird conservation, especially the most vulnerable to climate change.

From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)-A climatic niche modeling approach

In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) towards Northern and Western Europe has been observed. The golden jackal is a medium-sized canid, with a broad and flexible diet. Almost 200 different parasite species have been reported worldwide from C. aureus, including many parasites that are shared with dogs and cats and parasite species of public health concern. As parasites may follow the range shifts of their host, the range expansion of the golden jackal could be accompanied by changes in the parasite fauna in the new ecosystems. In the new distribution area, the golden jackal could affect ecosystem equilibrium, e.g., through changed competition situations or predation pressure. In a niche modeling approach, we project the future climatic habitat suitability of the golden jackal in Europe in the context of whether climatic changes promote range expansion. We use an ensemble forecast based on six presence-absence algorithms to estimate the climatic suitability of C. aureus for different time periods up to the year 2100 considering different IPCC scenarios on future development. As predictor variables, we used six bioclimatic variables provided by worldclim. Our results clearly indicate that areas with climatic conditions analogous to those of the current core distribution area of the golden jackal in Europe will strongly expand towards the north and the west in future decades. Thus, the observed range expansion may be favored by climate change. The occurrence of stable populations can be expected in Central Europe. With regard to biodiversity and public health concerns, the population and range dynamics of the golden jackal should be surveyed. Correlative niche models provide a useful and frequently applied tool for this purpose. The results can help to make monitoring more efficient by identifying areas with suitable habitat and thus a higher probability of occurrence.

Determinants of haemosporidian single- and co-infection risks in western palearctic birds

Understanding the drivers of infection risk helps us to detect the most at-risk species in a community and identify species whose intrinsic characteristics could act as potential reservoirs of pathogens. This knowledge is crucial if we are to predict the emergence and evolution of infectious diseases. To date, most studies have only focused on infections caused by a single parasite, leaving out co-infections. Yet, co-infections are of paramount importance in understanding the ecology and evolution of host-parasite interactions due to the wide range of effects they can have on host fitness and on the evolutionary trajectories of parasites. Here, we used a multinomial Bayesian phylogenetic modelling framework to explore the extent to which bird ecology and phylogeny impact the probability of being infected by one genus (hereafter single infection) or by multiple genera (hereafter co-infection) of haemosporidian parasites. We show that while nesting and migration behaviors influenced both the probability of being single- and co-infected, species position along the slow-fast life-history continuum and geographic range size were only pertinent in explaining variation in co-infection risk. We also found evidence for a phylogenetic conservatism regarding both single- and co-infections, indicating that phylogenetically related bird species tend to have similar infection patterns. This phylogenetic signal was four times stronger for co-infections than for single infections, suggesting that co-infections may act as a stronger selective pressure than single infections. Overall, our study underscores the combined influence of hosts' evolutionary history and attributes in determining infection risk in avian host communities. These results also suggest that co-infection risk might be under stronger deterministic control than single infection risk, potentially paving the way toward a better understanding of the emergence and evolution of infectious diseases.

Modulating Effects of Landscape Characteristics on Responses to Warming Differ Among Butterfly Species

Understanding and predicting biodiversity responses to climate change are vital to inform conservation strategies, but this is not straightforward as climate change responses depend on the landscape context and differ among species. Here, we quantified changes in the distribution and abundance of 30 butterfly species in the Netherlands in relation to climate change and in landscapes that vary in the amount and connectivity of (semi-)natural vegetation (SNV). We obtained yearly counts of well-monitored butterfly species from 327 time series over 27 years (1992–2018). We used these counts to build mixed effect hurdle models to relate species’ occurrence and abundance to temperature and the amount and connectivity of SNV around the sites. For 55% of the butterfly species, an increased amount or connectivity of SNV corresponded with stronger increases or reduced decreases in occurrence in response to warming, indicating that SNV may facilitate range expansion or mitigate extirpations due to climate change. However, for the occurrence of the other species we found no or a negative interaction between warming and SNV. Further, we did not find indications of a mitigating effect of SNV on abundance responses to warming. Our results thus suggest that increasing the amount and connectivity of SNV does not offer a “one-size-fits-all” solution, highlighting the need for additional measures if butterfly diversity is to be conserved.

Short-lived species move uphill faster under climate change

Climate change is pushing species ranges and abundances towards the poles and mountain tops. Although many studies have documented local altitudinal shifts, knowledge of general patterns at a large spatial scale, such as a whole mountain range, is scarce. From a conservation perspective, studying altitudinal shifts in wildlife is relevant because mountain regions often represent biodiversity hotspots and are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. Here, we examine whether altitudinal shifts in birds' abundances have occurred in the Scandinavian mountains over 13 years, and assess whether such shifts are related to species' traits. Using abundance data, we show a clear pattern of uphill shift in the mean altitude of bird abundance across the Scandinavian mountains, with an average speed of 0.9 m per year. Out of 76 species, 7 shifted significantly their abundance uphill. Altitudinal shift was strongly related to species' longevity: short-lived species showed more pronounced uphill shifts in abundance than long-lived species. The observed abundance shifts suggest that uphill shifts are not only driven by a small number of individuals at the range boundaries, but the overall bird abundances are on the move. Overall, the results underscore the wide-ranging impact of climate change and the potential vulnerability of species with slow life histories, as they appear less able to timely respond to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds

Functional traits offer a rich quantitative framework for developing and testing theories in evolutionary biology, ecology and ecosystem science. However, the potential of functional traits to drive theoretical advances and refine models of global change can only be fully realised when species-level information is complete. Here we present the AVONET dataset containing comprehensive functional trait data for all birds, including six ecological variables, 11 continuous morphological traits, and information on range size and location. Raw morphological measurements are presented from 90,020 individuals of 11,009 extant bird species sampled from 181 countries. These data are also summarised as species averages in three taxonomic formats, allowing integration with a global phylogeny, geographical range maps, IUCN Red List data and the eBird citizen science database. The AVONET dataset provides the most detailed picture of continuous trait variation for any major radiation of organisms, offering a global template for testing hypotheses and exploring the evolutionary origins, structure and functioning of biodiversity.

Changes in Alpine Butterfly Communities during the Last 40 Years

Our work aims to assess how butterfly communities in the Italian Maritime Alps changed over the past 40 years, in parallel with altitudinal shifts occurring in plant communities. In 2019, we sampled butterflies at 7 grassland sites, between 1300-1900 m, previously investigated in 2009 and 1978, by semi-quantitative linear transects. Fine-scale temperature and precipitation data elaborated by optimal interpolation techniques were used to quantify climate changes. The changes in the vegetation cover and main habitat alterations were assessed by inspection of aerial photographs (1978-2018/1978-2006-2015). The vegetation structure showed a marked decrease of grassland habitats and an increase of woods (1978-2009). Plant physiognomy has remained stable in recent years (2009-2019) with some local exceptions due to geomorphic disturbance. We observed butterfly 'species substitution' indicating a general loss in the more specialised and a general gain in more tolerant elements. We did not observe any decrease in species richness, but rather a change in guild compositions, with (i) an overall increased abundance in some widespread and common lowland species and (ii) the disappearance (or strong decrease) of some alpine (high elevation) species, so that 'resilience' could be just delusive. Changes in butterfly community composition were consistent with predicted impacts of local warming.

Estimating the movements of terrestrial animal populations using broad-scale occurrence data

As human and automated sensor networks collect increasingly massive volumes of animal observations, new opportunities have arisen to use these data to infer or track species movements. Sources of broad scale occurrence datasets include crowdsourced databases, such as eBird and iNaturalist, weather surveillance radars, and passive automated sensors including acoustic monitoring units and camera trap networks. Such data resources represent static observations, typically at the species level, at a given location. Nonetheless, by combining multiple observations across many locations and times it is possible to infer spatially continuous population-level movements. Population-level movement characterizes the aggregated movement of individuals comprising a population, such as range contractions, expansions, climate tracking, or migration, that can result from physical, behavioral, or demographic processes. A desire to model population movements from such forms of occurrence data has led to an evolving field that has created new analytical and statistical approaches that can account for spatial and temporal sampling bias in the observations. The insights generated from the growth of population-level movement research can complement the insights from focal tracking studies, and elucidate mechanisms driving changes in population distributions at potentially larger spatial and temporal scales. This review will summarize current broad-scale occurrence datasets, discuss the latest approaches for utilizing them in population-level movement analyses, and highlight studies where such analyses have provided ecological insights. We outline the conceptual approaches and common methodological steps to infer movements from spatially distributed occurrence data that currently exist for terrestrial animals, though similar approaches may be applicable to plants, freshwater, or marine organisms.

Why Are Species’ Traits Weak Predictors of Range Shifts?

We examine the evidence linking species’ traits to contemporary range shifts and find they are poor predictors of range shifts that have occurred over decades to a century. We then discuss reasons for the poor performance of traits for describing interspecific variation in range shifts from two perspectives: ( a) factors associated with species’ traits that degrade range-shift signals stemming from the measures used for species’ traits, traits that are typically not analyzed, and the influence of phylogeny on range-shift potential and ( b) issues in quantifying range shifts and relating them to species’ traits due to imperfect detection of species, differences in the responses of altitudinal and latitudinal ranges, and emphasis on testing linear relationships between traits and range shifts instead of nonlinear responses. Improving trait-based approaches requires a recognition that traits within individuals interact in unexpected ways and that different combinations of traits may be functionally equivalent.

Genetic diversity may help evolutionary rescue in a clonal endemic plant species of Western Himalaya

Habitat loss due to climate change may cause the extinction of the clonal species with a limited distribution range. Thus, determining the genetic diversity required for adaptability by these species in sensitive ecosystems can help infer the chances of their survival and spread in changing climate. We studied the genetic diversity and population structure of Sambucus wightiana-a clonal endemic plant species of the Himalayan region for understanding its possible survival chances in anticipated climate change. Eight polymorphic microsatellite markers were used to study the allelic/genetic diversity and population structure. In addition, ITS1-ITS4 Sanger sequencing was used for phylogeny and SNP detection. A total number of 73 alleles were scored for 37 genotypes at 17 loci for 8 SSRs markers. The population structural analysis using the SSR marker data led to identifying two sub-populations in our collection of 37 S. wightiana genotypes, with 11 genotypes having mixed ancestry. The ITS sequence data show a specific allele in higher frequency in a particular sub-population, indicating variation in different S. wightiana accessions at the sequence level. The genotypic data of SSR markers and trait data of 11 traits of S. wightiana, when analyzed together, revealed five significant Marker-Trait Associations (MTAs) through Single Marker Analysis (SMA) or regression analysis. Most of the SSR markers were found to be associated with more than one trait, indicating the usefulness of these markers for working out marker-trait associations. Moderate to high genetic diversity observed in the present study may provide insurance against climate change to S. wightiana and help its further spread.

Future Representation of Species’ Climatic Niches in Protected Areas: A Case Study With Austrian Endemics

Climate driven species’ range shifts may interfere with existing protected area (PA) networks, resulting in a mismatch between places where species are currently protected and places where they can thrive in the future. Here, we assess the climate-smartness of the Austrian PA network by focusing on endemic species’ climatic niches and their future representation within PAs. We calculated endemic species’ climatic niches and climate space available in PAs within their dispersal reach under current and future climates, with the latter represented by three climate change scenarios and three time-steps (2030, 2050, and 2080). Niches were derived from the area of occupancy of species and the extent of PAs, respectively, and calculated as bivariate density kernels on gradients of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. We then computed climatic representation of species’ niches in PAs as the proportion of the species’ kernel covered by the PA kernel. We found that under both a medium (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario, representation of endemic species’ climatic niches by PAs will decrease to a sixth for animals and to a third for plants, on average, toward the end of the century. Twenty to thirty percent of Austrian endemic species will then have no representation of their climatic niches in PAs anymore. Species with larger geographical and wider elevational ranges will lose less climatic niche representation. The declining representation of climatic niches in PAs implies that, even if PAs may secure the persistence of a part of these endemics, only a small portion of intraspecific diversity of many species may be represented in PAs in the future. We discuss our findings in the context of the varied elevational gradients found in Austria and suggest that the most promising strategies for safeguarding endemic species’ evolutionary potential are to limit the magnitude of climate change and to reduce other pressures that additionally threaten their survival.

Expanding insect pollinators in the Anthropocene

Global changes are severely affecting pollinator insect communities worldwide, resulting in repeated patterns of species extirpations and extinctions. Whilst negative population trends within this functional group have understandably received much attention in recent decades, another facet of global changes has been overshadowed: species undergoing expansion. Here, we review the factors and traits that have allowed a fraction of the pollinating entomofauna to take advantage of global environmental change. Sufficient mobility, high resistance to acute heat stress, and inherent adaptation to warmer climates appear to be key traits that allow pollinators to persist and even expand in the face of climate change. An overall flexibility in dietary and nesting requirements is common in expanding species, although niche specialization can also drive expansion under specific contexts. The numerous consequences of wild and domesticated pollinator expansions, including competition for resources, pathogen spread, and hybridization with native wildlife, are also discussed. Overall, we show that the traits and factors involved in the success stories of expanding pollinators are mostly species specific and context dependent, rendering generalizations of 'winning traits' complicated. This work illustrates the increasing need to consider expansion and its numerous consequences as significant facets of global changes and encourages efforts to monitor the impacts of expanding insect pollinators, particularly exotic species, on natural ecosystems.

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental-scale review of climate-driven species redistribution in marine systems

Climate-driven changes in the distribution of species are a pervasive and accelerating impact of climate change, and despite increasing research effort in this rapidly emerging field, much remains unknown or poorly understood. We lack a holistic understanding of patterns and processes at local, regional and global scales, with detailed explorations of range shifts in the southern hemisphere particularly under-represented. Australian waters encompass the world's third largest marine jurisdiction, extending from tropical to sub-Antarctic climate zones, and have waters warming at rates twice the global average in the north and two to four times in the south. Here, we report the results of a multi-taxon continent-wide review describing observed and predicted species redistribution around the Australian coastline, and highlight critical gaps in knowledge impeding our understanding of, and response to, these considerable changes. Since range shifts were first reported in the region in 2003, 198 species from nine Phyla have been documented shifting their distribution, 87.3% of which are shifting poleward. However, there is little standardization of methods or metrics reported in observed or predicted shifts, and both are hindered by a lack of baseline data. Our results demonstrate the importance of historical data sets and underwater visual surveys, and also highlight that approximately one-fifth of studies incorporated citizen science. These findings emphasize the important role the public has had, and can continue to play, in understanding the impact of climate change. Most documented shifts are of coastal fish species in sub-tropical and temperate systems, while tropical systems in general were poorly explored. Moreover, most distributional changes are only described at the poleward boundary, with few studies considering changes at the warmer, equatorward range limit. Through identifying knowledge gaps and research limitations, this review highlights future opportunities for strategic research effort to improve the representation of Australian marine species and systems in climate-impact research.

The dispersal-related traits of an invasive plant Galinsoga quadriradiata correlate with elevation during range expansion into mountain ranges

Detecting shifts in trait values among populations of an invasive plant is important for assessing invasion risks and predicting future spread. Although a growing number of studies suggest that the dispersal propensity of invasive plants increases during range expansion, there has been relatively little attention paid to dispersal patterns along elevational gradients. In this study, we tested the differentiation of dispersal-related traits in an invasive plant, Galinsoga quadriradiata, across populations at different elevations in the Qinling and Bashan Mountains in central China. Seed mass-area ratio (MAR), an important seed dispersal-related trait, of 45 populations from along an elevational gradient was measured, and genetic variation of 23 populations was quantified using inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers. Individuals from four populations were then planted in a greenhouse to compare their performance under shared conditions. Changing patterns of seed dispersal-related traits and populations genetic diversity along elevation were tested using linear regression. Mass-area ratio of G. quadriradiata increased, while genetic diversity decreased with elevation in the field survey. In the greenhouse, populations of G. quadriradiata sourced from different elevations showed a difference response of MAR. These results suggest that although rapid evolution may contribute to the range expansion of G. quadriradiata in mountain ranges, dispersal-related traits will also likely be affected by phenotypic plasticity. This challenges the common argument that dispersal ability of invasive plants increases along dispersal routes. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-altitude populations would be more effective at seed dispersal once they continue to expand their range downslope on the other side. Our experiment provides novel evidence that the spread of these high-altitude populations may be more likely than previously theorized and that they should thus be cautiously monitored.

Drivers of local extinction risk in alpine plants under warming climate

The scarcity of local plant extinctions following recent climate change has been explained by demographic inertia and lags in the displacement of resident species by novel species, generating an 'extinction debt'. We established a transplant experiment to disentangle the contribution of these processes to the local extinction risk of four alpine plants in the Swiss Alps. Projected population growth (λ) derived from integral projection models was reduced by 0.07/°C of warming on average, whereas novel species additionally decreased λ by 0.15 across warming levels. Effects of novel species on predicted extinction time were greatest at warming < 2 °C for two species. Projected population declines under both warming and with novel species were primarily driven by increased mortality. Our results suggest that extinction debt can be explained by a combination of demographic inertia and lags in novel species establishment, with the latter being particularly important for some species under low levels of warming.

Habitat amount and distribution modify community dynamics under climate change

Habitat fragmentation may present a major impediment to species range shifts caused by climate change, but how it affects local community dynamics in a changing climate has so far not been adequately investigated empirically. Using long-term monitoring data of butterfly assemblages, we tested the effects of the amount and distribution of semi-natural habitat (SNH), moderated by species traits, on climate-driven species turnover. We found that spatially dispersed SNH favoured the colonisation of warm-adapted and mobile species. In contrast, extinction risk of cold-adapted species increased in dispersed (as opposed to aggregated) habitats and when the amount of SNH was low. Strengthening habitat networks by maintaining or creating stepping-stone patches could thus allow warm-adapted species to expand their range, while increasing the area of natural habitat and its spatial cohesion may be important to aid the local persistence of species threatened by a warming climate.

Tree seedling trait optimization and growth in response to local-scale soil and light variability

At local scales, it has been suggested that high levels of resources lead to increased tree growth via trait optimization (highly peaked trait distribution). However, this contrasts with (1) theories that suggest that trait optimization and high growth occur in the most common resource level and (2) empirical evidence showing that high trait optimization can be also found at low resource levels. This raises the question of how are traits and growth optimized in highly diverse plant communities. Here, we propose a series of hypotheses about how traits and growth are expected to be maximized under different resource levels (low, the most common, and high) in tree seedling communities from a subtropical forest in Puerto Rico, USA. We studied the variation in the distribution of biomass allocation and leaf traits and seedlings growth rate along four resource gradients: light availability (canopy openness) and soil K, Mg, and N content. Our analyses consisted of comparing trait kurtosis (a measurement of trait optimization), community trait means, and relative growth rates at three resource levels (low, common, and high). Trait optimization varied across the three resource levels depending on the type of resource and trait, with leaf traits being optimized under high N and in the most common K and Mg conditions, but not at any of the light levels. Also, seedling growth increased at high-light conditions and high N and K but was not related to trait kurtosis. Our results indicate that local-scale variability of soil fertility and understory light conditions result in shifts in species ecological strategies that increase growth despite a weak trait optimization, suggesting the existence of alternative phenotypes that achieve similar high performance. Uncovering the links between abiotic factors, functional trait diversity and performance is necessary to better predict tree responses to future changes in abiotic conditions.

Searching for synthetic mechanisms on how biological traits mediate species responses to climate change

Abstract: Climate change will likely be the most significant challenge faced by species in this century, and species’ ability to cope with climate change depends on their life history and ecological and evolutionary traits. Understanding how these traits mediate species’ responses is beneficial for identifying more vulnerable species or prone to extinction risk. Here, we carried out a literature review describing how four traits commonly used in vulnerability assessments (i.e. clutch size, diet breadth, dispersal ability, and climatic tolerance) may determine species vulnerability. We also portray the possible mechanisms that explain how these traits govern species responses to climate change. The literature suggests different mechanisms operating for the evaluated traits. The mechanism of response to climate change differs between species inhabiting tropical and temperate regions: while species from the temperate areas may respond positively to temperature rise, tropical species may be severely affected. Since ectotherms depend on environment temperature, they are more sensitive and present different response mechanisms from endotherms.

Dispersal ability correlates with range size in Amazonian habitat-restricted birds

Understanding how species attain their geographical distributions and identifying traits correlated with range size are important objectives in biogeography, evolutionary biology and biodiversity conservation. Despite much effort, results have been varied and general trends have been slow to emerge. Studying species pools that occupy specific habitats, rather than clades or large groupings of species occupying diverse habitats, may better identify ranges size correlates and be more informative for conservation programmes in a rapidly changing world. We evaluated correlations between a set of organismal traits and range size in bird species from Amazonian white-sand ecosystems. We assessed if results are consistent when using different data sources for phylogenetic and range hypotheses. We found that dispersal ability, as measured by the hand-wing index, was correlated with range size in both white-sand birds and their non-white-sand sister taxa. White-sand birds had smaller ranges on average than their sister taxa. The results were similar and robust to the different data sources. Our results suggest that the patchiness of white-sand ecosystems limits species' ability to reach new habitat islands and establish new populations.

Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

Island ecosystems are notoriously vulnerable to anthropogenic species losses. Here, the authors identify insular hotspots of vulnerability to climate change (under RCPs 6.0 and 8.5) in mammals via a trait-based, quantitative vulnerability framework, finding that exposure to climate change is not a reliable proxy to assess species vulnerability, while sensitivity and adaptive capacity are crucial to understand vulnerability.

Dietary generalism accelerates arrival and persistence of coral-reef fishes in their novel ranges under climate change

Climate change is redistributing marine and terrestrial species globally. Life-history traits mediate the ability of species to cope with novel environmental conditions, and can be used to gauge the potential redistribution of taxa facing the challenges of a changing climate. However, it is unclear whether the same traits are important across different stages of range shifts (arrival, population increase, persistence). To test which life-history traits most mediate the process of range extension, we used a 16-year dataset of 35 range-extending coral-reef fish species and quantified the importance of various traits on the arrival time (earliness) and degree of persistence (prevalence and patchiness) at higher latitudes. We show that traits predisposing species to shift their range more rapidly (large body size, broad latitudinal range, long dispersal duration) did not drive the early stages of redistribution. Instead, we found that as diet breadth increased, the initial arrival and establishment (prevalence and patchiness) of climate migrant species in temperate locations occurred earlier. While the initial incursion of range-shifting species depends on traits associated with dispersal potential, subsequent establishment hinges more on a species' ability to exploit novel food resources locally. These results highlight that generalist species that can best adapt to novel food sources might be most successful in a future ocean.

Using a Trait-Based Approach to Compare Tree Species Sensitivity to Climate Change Stressors in Eastern Canada and Inform Adaptation Practices

Despite recent advances in understanding tree species sensitivities to climate change, ecological knowledge on different species remains scattered across disparate sources, precluding their inclusion in vulnerability assessments. Information on potential sensitivities is needed to identify tree species that require consideration, inform changes to current silvicultural practices and prioritize management actions. A trait-based approach was used to overcome some of the challenges involved in assessing sensitivity, providing a common framework to facilitate data integration and species comparisons. Focusing on 26 abundant tree species from eastern Canada, we developed a series of trait-based indices that capture a species’ ability to cope with three key climate change stressors—increased drought events, shifts in climatically suitable habitat, increased fire intensity and frequency. Ten indices were developed by breaking down species’ response to a stressor into its strategies, mechanisms and traits. Species-specific sensitivities varied across climate stressors but also among the various ways a species can cope with a given stressor. Of the 26 species assessed, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière and Abies balsamea (L.) Mill are classified as the most sensitive species across all indices while Acer rubrum L. and Populus spp. are the least sensitive. Information was found for 95% of the trait-species combinations but the quality of available data varies between indices and species. Notably, some traits related to individual-level sensitivity to drought were poorly documented as well as deciduous species found within the temperate biome. We also discuss how our indices compare with other published indices, using drought sensitivity as an example. Finally, we discuss how the information captured by these indices can be used to inform vulnerability assessments and the development of adaptation measures for species with different management requirements under climate change.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Mobility costs and energy uptake mediate the effects of morphological traits on species' distribution and abundance

Individuals of large or dark-colored ectothermic species often have a higher reproduction and activity than small or light-colored ones. However, investments into body size or darker colors should negatively affect the fitness of individuals as they increase their growth and maintenance costs. Thus, it is unlikely that morphological traits directly affect species' distribution and abundance. Yet, this simplification is frequently made in trait-based ecological analyses. Here, we integrated the energy allocation strategies of species into an ecophysiological framework to explore the mechanisms that link species' morphological traits and population dynamics. We hypothesized that the effects of morphological traits on species' distribution and abundance are not direct but mediated by components of the energy budget and that species can allocate more energy towards dispersal and reproduction if they compensate their energetic costs by reducing mobility costs or increasing energy uptake. To classify species' energy allocation strategies, we used easily measured proxies for the mobility costs and energy uptake of butterflies that can be also applied to other taxa. We demonstrated that contrasting effects of morphological traits on distribution and abundance of butterfly species offset each other when species' energy allocation strategies are not taken into account. Larger and darker butterfly species had wider distributions and were more abundant if they compensated the investment into body size and color darkness (i.e., melanin) by reducing their mobility costs or increasing energy uptake. Adults of darker species were more mobile and foraged less compared to lighter colored ones, if an investment into melanin was indirectly compensated via a size-dependent reduction of mobility costs or increase of energy uptake. Our results indicate that differences in the energy allocations strategies of species account for a considerable part of the variation in species' distribution and abundance that is left unexplained by morphological traits alone and ignoring these differences can lead to false mechanistic conclusions. Therefore, our findings highlight the potential of integrating proxies for species' energy allocation strategies into trait-based models not only for understanding the physiological mechanisms underlying variation in species' distribution and abundance, but also for improving predictions of the population dynamics of species.

In transition: Avian biogeographic responses to a century of climate change across desert biomes

Transition zones between biomes, also known as ecotones, are areas of pronounced ecological change. They are primarily maintained by abiotic factors and disturbance regimes that could hinder or promote species range shifts in response to climate change. We evaluated how climate change has affected metacommunity dynamics in two adjacent biomes and across their ecotone by resurveying 106 sites that were originally surveyed for avian diversity in the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. The Mojave, a warm desert, and the Great Basin, a cold desert, have distinct assemblages and meet along a contiguous, east-west boundary. Both deserts substantially warmed over the past century, but the Mojave dried while the Great Basin became wetter. We examined whether the distinctiveness and composition of desert avifaunas have changed, if species distributions shifted, and how the transition zone impacted turnover patterns. Avifauna change was characterized by (a) reduced occupancy, range contractions, and idiosyncratic species redistributions; (b) degradation of historic community structure, and increased taxonomic and climatic differentiation of the species inhabiting the two deserts; and (c) high levels of turnover at the transition zone but little range expansion of species from the warm, dry Mojave into the cooler, wetter Great Basin. Although both deserts now support more drier and warmer tolerant species, their bird communities still occupy distinct climatological space and differ significantly in climatic composition. Our results suggest a persistent transition zone between biomes contributes to limiting the redistribution of birds, and highlight the importance of understanding how transition zone dynamics impact responses to climate change.