Scenarios and Models to Support Global Conservation Targets

Participatory and Spatially Explicit Assessment to Envision the Future of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Scenarios on Selected Ecosystem Services in Southwestern Ghana

Settlement expansion and commercial agriculture affect landscape sustainability and ecosystem service provision. Integrated landscape approaches are promoted to negotiate trade-offs between competing land uses and their reconciliation. Incorporating local perceptions of landscape dynamics as basis for such negotiations is particularly relevant for sub-Saharan Africa, where most people depend on natural ecosystems for livelihoods and well-being. This study applied participatory scenario building and spatially explicit simulation to unravel perceptions of the potential impact of rubber and settlement expansion on the provision of selected ecosystem services in southwestern Ghana under a business-as-usual scenario. We collected data in workshops and expert surveys on locally relevant ecosystem services, their indicator values, and the probable land-use transitions. The data was translated into an assessment matrix and integrated into a spatially explicit modeling platform, allowing visualization and comparison of the impact on ecosystem service provision of land-use scenarios under rubber plantation and settlement expansion. The results show the capacity of current (2020) and future land-use patterns to provide locally relevant ecosystem services, indicating a decline in capacity of ecosystem service provisioning in the future compared to the 2020 land-use patterns, a threat to the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. This highlights urgent need for policies and measures to control the drivers of land-use/land-cover change. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of diversifying land-use/land-cover types for sustainable landscape development. The paper contributes new insights into how spatially explicit and semi-quantitative methods can make stakeholder perceptions of landscape dynamics explicit as a basis for implementing integrated landscape approaches.

Scenario design for infectious disease projections: Integrating concepts from decision analysis and experimental design

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past decade, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the field of epidemiology has seen substantial growth in the use of scenario projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at the same time, allowing important comparisons that can guide the choice of intervention, the prioritization of research topics, or public communication. The design of the scenarios is central to their ability to inform important questions. In this paper, we draw on the fields of decision analysis and statistical design of experiments to propose a framework for scenario design in epidemiology, with relevance also to other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes for scenario designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, situational awareness, horizon scanning, forecasting, and value of information) and discuss how those purposes guide the structure of scenarios. We discuss other aspects of the content and process of scenario design, broadly for all settings and specifically for multi-model ensemble projections. As an illustrative case study, we examine the first 17 rounds of scenarios from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect on future advancements that could improve the design of scenarios in epidemiological settings.

Biodiversity responses to agricultural practices in cropland and natural habitats

Largely driven by agricultural pressures, biodiversity has experienced great changes globally. Exploring biodiversity responses to agricultural practices associated with agricultural intensification can benefit biodiversity conservation in agricultural landscapes. However, the effects of agricultural practices may also extend to natural habitats. Moreover, agricultural impacts may also vary with geographical region. We analyze biodiversity responses to landscape cropland coverage, cropping frequency, fertiliser and yield, among different land-use types and across geographical regions. We find that species richness and total abundance generally respond negatively to increased landscape cropland coverage. Biodiversity reductions in human land-use types (pasture, plantation forest and cropland) were stronger in tropical than non-tropical regions, which was also true for biodiversity reductions with increasing yield in both human and natural land-use types. Our results underline substantial biodiversity responses to agricultural practices not only in cropland but also in natural habitats, highlighting the fact that biodiversity conservation demands a greater focus on optimizing agricultural management at the landscape scale.

Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design

Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties, with relevance to both decision makers and scientists. In the past decade, and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the field of epidemiology has seen substantial growth in the use of scenario projections. Multiple scenarios are often projected at the same time, allowing important comparisons that can guide the choice of intervention, the prioritization of research topics, or public communication. The design of the scenarios is central to their ability to inform important questions. In this paper, we draw on the fields of decision analysis and statistical design of experiments to propose a framework for scenario design in epidemiology, with relevance also to other fields. We identify six different fundamental purposes for scenario designs (decision making, sensitivity analysis, value of information, situational awareness, horizon scanning, and forecasting) and discuss how those purposes guide the structure of scenarios. We discuss other aspects of the content and process of scenario design, broadly for all settings and specifically for multi-model ensemble projections. As an illustrative case study, we examine the first 17 rounds of scenarios from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, then reflect on future advancements that could improve the design of scenarios in epidemiological settings.

Making protected areas effective for biodiversity, climate and food

The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 2020. This casts doubt on whether extending PAs to 30%, the agreed target in the Kunming-Montreal GBF, will indeed achieve meaningful biodiversity benefits. Critically, the focus on area coverage obscures the importance of PA effectiveness and overlooks concerns about the impact of PAs on other sustainability objectives. We propose a simple means of assessing and visualising the complex relationships between PA area coverage and effectiveness and their effects on biodiversity conservation, nature-based climate mitigation and food production. Our analysis illustrates how achieving a 30% PA global target could be beneficial for biodiversity and climate. It also highlights important caveats: (i) achieving lofty area coverage objectives alone will be of little benefit without concomitant improvements in effectiveness, (ii) trade-offs with food production particularly for high levels of coverage and effectiveness are likely and (iii) important differences in terrestrial and marine systems need to be recognized when setting and implementing PA targets. The CBD's call for a significant increase in PA will need to be accompanied by clear PA effectiveness goals to reduce and revert dangerous anthropogenic impacts on socio-ecological systems and biodiversity.

Ongoing over-exploitation and delayed responses to environmental change highlight the urgency for action to promote vertebrate recoveries by 2030

To safeguard nature, we must understand the drivers of biodiversity loss. Time-delayed biodiversity responses to environmental changes (ecological lags) are often absent from models of biodiversity change, despite their well-documented existence. We quantify how lagged responses to climate and land-use change have influenced mammal and bird populations around the world, while incorporating effects of direct exploitation and conservation interventions. Ecological lag duration varies between drivers, vertebrate classes and body size groupings-e.g. lags linked to climate-change impacts are 13 years for small birds, rising to 40 years for larger species. Past warming and land conversion generally combine to predict population declines; however, such conditions are associated with population increases for small mammals. Positive effects of management (>+4% annually for large mammals) and protected areas (>+6% annually for large birds) on population trends contrast with the negative impact of exploitation (<-7% annually for birds), highlighting the need to promote sustainable use. Model projections suggest a future with winners (e.g. large birds) and losers (e.g. medium-sized birds), with current/recent environmental change substantially influencing abundance trends to 2050. Without urgent action, including effective conservation interventions and promoting sustainable use, ambitious targets to stop declines by 2030 may already be slipping out of reach.

Serengeti’s futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals

Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies’ relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals.

Mapping edaphic soils' conditions to identify conservation targets for pine barren and sandplain ecosystems in New York State

Small habitat patches can be important reservoirs for biodiversity, capable of hosting unique species that are largely absent from the surrounding landscape. In cases where such patches owe their existence to the presence of particular soil types or hydrologic conditions, local‐scale edaphic variables may be more effective components for models that identify patch location than regional‐scale macroclimatic variables often used in habitat and species distribution models. We modeled the edaphic soil conditions that support pine barren, sandplain, and related ecosystems in New York State with the purpose of identifying potential locations for biodiversity conservation. We quantified soil percent sand and soil depth of 156 known high‐quality remnant pine barren and sandplain ecosystems to calculate threshold soil characteristics. We then mapped all soils in the state that were at least as sandy and deep as the threshold values we calculated. The total area of our map of suitable soil conditions was over 9500 km², made up of forested (57%), urban (26%), agricultural (13%), and open (4%) land covers. Our analysis nearly doubled the recognized area of barren, shrubland, and grassland habitat on deep, sandy soils in New York State. Extensive forested and even agricultural cover on these soils could also be the subject of restoration to further support the biodiversity of these unique ecosystems. The presence of extensive soils in coastal and interior New York that, with the appropriate disturbance regime, have the potential to host pine barren and sandplain ecosystems offers a new perspective on these ecosystems' distribution in the past—and about how to better align conservation and restoration to preserve the future.

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability.^1,2 Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation,³ but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050. Under a protection-only scenario, the current trajectories of net mangrove loss slowed, and a minor net gain in global seagrass extent (∼1%) was estimated. Protection alone is therefore unlikely to drive sufficient recovery. However, if action is taken to both protect and restore, net gains of up to 5% and 35% of mangroves and seagrasses, respectively, could be achieved by 2050. Further, protection and restoration can be complementary, as protection prevents losses that would otherwise occur post-2050, highlighting the importance of implementing protection measures. Our findings provide the scientific evidence required for setting strategic and ambitious targets to inspire significant global investment and effort in mangrove and seagrass conservation.

Effects of land use change on population survival of three wild rice species in China since 2001

Land use change stemming from human activities, particularly cropland expansion, heavily threatens the survival of crop wild relatives that usually occur nearby or scatter in farming systems. Understanding the impacts of land use change on wild populations is critical in forming the conservation decision-making of wild relatives. Based on the investigations on the population survival of three wild rice species (Oryza rufipogon, O. officinalis, and O. granulata) in China over the past 40 years (1978-2019), the effect of land use change during the past 20 years (2001-2019) on the natural populations of the three species was examined using the land use type data of satellite-based Earth observations (data from GlobCover). From 1978 to 2019, the number of populations (distribution sites) of the three wild rice species had decreased by 65-87%, mainly because of the habitat destruction or disappearance caused by human-induced land use change. The three wild rice species display different habitat preferences, resulting in specific land use types surrounding their populations. In the recent 20 years, although the surrounding community composition of the wild rice population has been relatively stable, the surrounding vegetation cover area of the survived populations was significantly more extensive than that of the extinct ones (p < 0.05). These findings suggest that habitat vegetation plays a "biological barrier" role in the survival of wild populations through resisting or mitigating the disturbing impact of land use change on wild populations. This study provides not only direct guidelines for the conservation of wild rice but also new insights into the mechanisms underlying the influence of land use change on wild populations.

Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature's contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity conservation, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to abate climate change. Here, we describe the scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal and milestones, founded on a theory of change, and review available indicators to measure progress. An ecosystem goal should include three core components: area, integrity and risk of collapse. Targets-the actions that are necessary for the goals to be met-should address the pathways to ecosystem loss and recovery, including safeguarding remnants of threatened ecosystems, restoring their area and integrity to reduce risk of collapse and retaining intact areas. Multiple indicators are needed to capture the different dimensions of ecosystem area, integrity and risk of collapse across all ecosystem types, and should be selected for their fitness for purpose and relevance to goal components. Science-based goals, supported by well-formulated action targets and fit-for-purpose indicators, will provide the best foundation for reversing biodiversity loss and sustaining human well-being.

Neutral theory reveals the challenge of bending the curve for the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

In October, nations of the world will begin negotiations for the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity. An influential ambition is "bending the curve of biodiversity loss," which aims to reverse the decline of global biodiversity indicators. A second relevant, yet less prominent, milestone is the 20th anniversary of the publication of The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography. Here, I apply neutral theory to show how global biodiversity indicators for population size (Living Planet Index) and extinction threat (Red List Index) decline under neutral ecological drift. This demonstrates that declining indicators are not solely caused by deterministic species-specific or geographical patterns of biodiversity loss. Instead, indicators are sensitive to nondirectional stochasticity. Thus, "bending the curve" could be assessed relative to a counterfactual based on neutral theory, rather than static baselines. If used correctly, the 20-year legacy of neutral theory can be extended to make a valuable contribution to the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.

Carbon sequestration scenarios in Portugal: which way to go forward?

Assessing carbon storage and sequestration is key for defining effective conservation actions to mitigate climate change. Forest species changes have direct impacts on carbon stocks and may lead to undesirable climate trade-offs. In this paper, we measure aboveground biomass (AGB) and the impact of forest changes on climate regulation through three land policy scenarios by 2030 in continental Portugal. We found that a High intervention scenario, supported by an important increase in "Other coniferous trees" class, will provide 29.5% more of carbon sequestration, whereas a Low intervention scenario, in which there is a moderate increase in all forest classes, will result in an increase of 5.7%. A business as usual (BAU) scenario, supported by an increase in eucalyptus forests and a decrease in autochthonous species, will decrease carbon sequestration (-2.7%), particularly Lisboa, Algarve and North regions. Economic valuation shows that the High intervention scenario will generate the highest economic outcome for climate regulation by 2030. This study provides a spatial-based methodology for monitoring carbon sequestration and new insights about the impact of policies for Green House Gas (GHG) mitigation, supporting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals achievement.

Random population fluctuations bias the Living Planet Index

The Living Planet Index (LPI) is a standardized indicator for tracking population trends through time. Due to its ability to aggregate many time series in a single metric, the LPI has been proposed as an indicator for the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Strategy. However, here we show that random population fluctuations introduce biases when calculating the LPI. By combining simulated and empirical data, we show how random fluctuations lead to a declining LPI even when overall population trends are stable and imprecise estimates of the LPI when populations increase or decrease nonlinearly. We applied randomization null models that demonstrate how random fluctuations exaggerate declines in the global LPI by 9.6%. Our results confirm substantial declines in the LPI but highlight sources of uncertainty in quantitative estimates. Randomization null models are useful for presenting uncertainty around indicators of progress towards international biodiversity targets.

The mismeasure of conservation

One of the basic purposes of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation interventions is to achieve conservation impact, the sum of avoided biodiversity loss and promoted recovery relative to outcomes without protection. In the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity's negotiations on the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, we find that targets for area-based interventions are framed overwhelmingly with measures that fail to inform decision-makers about impact and that risk diverting limited resources away from achieving it. We show that predicting impact in space and time is feasible and can provide the basis for global guidance for jurisdictions to develop targets for conservation impact and shift investment priorities to areas where impact can be most effectively achieved.

Congruence between the prioritisation of conservation problems at the local and national scale: an evaluation by environmental scientists in Poland

The anthropogenic pressure on the environment depends on the spatial scale. It is crucial to prioritise conservation actions at different spatial scales to be cost-efficient. Using horizon scanning with the Delphi technique, we asked what the most important conservation problems are in Poland at local and national scales. Twenty-six participants, PhD students, individually identified conservation issues important at the local and national scales. Each problem was then scored and classified into broader categories during the round discussions. Text mining, cross-sectional analyses, and frequency tests were used to compare the context, importance scores, and frequency of identified problems between the two scales, respectively. A total of 115 problems were identified at the local scale and 122 at the national scale. Among them, 30 problems were identical for both scales. Importance scores were higher for national than local problems; however, this resulted from different sets of problems identified at the two scales. Problems linked to urbanisation, education, and management were associated with the local scale. Problems related to policy, forestry, and consumerism were more frequent at the national scale. An efficient conservation policy should be built hierarchically (e.g. introducing adaptive governance), implementing solutions at a national scale with the flexibility to adjust for local differences and to address the most pressing issues.

Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

Conflicts between the interests of biodiversity conservation and other human activities pose a major threat to natural ecosystems and human well-being, yet few methods exist to quantify their intensity and model their dynamics. We develop a categorization of conflict intensity based on the curve of conflict, a model originally used to track the escalation and deescalation of armed conflicts. Our categorization assigns six intensity levels reflecting the discourse and actions of stakeholders involved in a given conflict, from coexistence or collaboration to physical violence. Using a range of case studies, we demonstrate the value of our approach in quantifying conflict trends, estimating transition probabilities between conflict stages, and modeling conflict intensity as a function of relevant covariates. By taking an evidence-based approach to quantifying stakeholder behavior, the proposed framework allows for a better understanding of the drivers of conservation conflict development across a diverse range of socioecological scenarios.

Matching biodiversity indicators to policy needs

At the global scale, biodiversity indicators are typically used to monitor general trends, but are rarely implemented with specific purpose or linked directly to decision making. Some indicators are better suited to predicting future change, others are more appropriate for evaluating past actions, but this is seldom made explicit. We developed a conceptual model for assigning biodiversity indicators to appropriate functions based on a common approach used in economics. Using the model, indicators can be classified as leading (indicators that change before the subject of interest, informing preventative actions), coincident (indicators that measure the subject of interest), or lagging (indicators that change after the subject of interest has changed and thus can be used to evaluate past actions). We classified indicators based on ecological theory on biodiversity response times and management objectives in 2 case studies: global species extinction and marine ecosystem collapse. For global species extinctions, indicators of abundance (e.g., the Living Planet Index or biodiversity intactness index) were most likely to respond first, as leading indicators that inform preventative action, while extinction indicators were expected to respond slowly, acting as lagging indicators flagging the need for evaluation. For marine ecosystem collapse, indicators of direct responses to fishing were expected to be leading, while those measuring ecosystem collapse could be lagging. Classification defines an active role for indicators within the policy cycle, creates an explicit link to preventative decision-making, and supports preventative action.

Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices

Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g., costs and data availability). Evaluation was based on reference literature for indices available at the time of assessment. We identified 4 key gaps in indices assessed: pathways to achieving goals (means objectives) were not always clear or relevant to desired outcomes (fundamental objectives); index testing and understanding of expected behavior was often lacking; uncertainty was seldom acknowledged or accounted for; and costs of implementation were seldom considered. These gaps may render indices inadequate in certain decision-making contexts and are problematic for indices linked with biodiversity targets and sustainability goals. Ensuring that index objectives are clear and their design is underpinned by a model of relevant processes are crucial in addressing the gaps identified by our assessment. Uptake and productive use of indices will be improved if index performance is tested rigorously and assumptions and uncertainties are clearly communicated to end users. This will increase index accuracy and value in tracking biodiversity change and supporting national and global policy decisions, such as the post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.

The Aichi Biodiversity Targets: achievements for marine conservation and priorities beyond 2020

In 2010 the Conference of the Parties (COP) for the Convention on Biological Diversity revised and updated a Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, which included the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Here a group of early career researchers mentored by senior scientists, convened as part of the 4th World Conference on Marine Biodiversity, reflects on the accomplishments and shortfalls under four of the Aichi Targets considered highly relevant to marine conservation: target 6 (sustainable fisheries), 11 (protection measures), 15 (ecosystem restoration and resilience) and 19 (knowledge, science and technology). We conclude that although progress has been made towards the targets, these have not been fully achieved for the marine environment by the 2020 deadline. The progress made, however, lays the foundations for further work beyond 2020 to work towards the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity. We identify key priorities that must be addressed to better enable marine biodiversity conservation efforts moving forward.

Area-based conservation in the twenty-first century

Humanity will soon define a new era for nature-one that seeks to transform decades of underwhelming responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Area-based conservation efforts, which include both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, are likely to extend and diversify. However, persistent shortfalls in ecological representation and management effectiveness diminish the potential role of area-based conservation in stemming biodiversity loss. Here we show how the expansion of protected areas by national governments since 2010 has had limited success in increasing the coverage across different elements of biodiversity (ecoregions, 12,056 threatened species, 'Key Biodiversity Areas' and wilderness areas) and ecosystem services (productive fisheries, and carbon services on land and sea). To be more successful after 2020, area-based conservation must contribute more effectively to meeting global biodiversity goals-ranging from preventing extinctions to retaining the most-intact ecosystems-and must better collaborate with the many Indigenous peoples, community groups and private initiatives that are central to the successful conservation of biodiversity. The long-term success of area-based conservation requires parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity to secure adequate financing, plan for climate change and make biodiversity conservation a far stronger part of land, water and sea management policies.

Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Land Cover Changes: A Case of Zanzibar (Tanzania)

Land use and land cover (LULC) under improper land management is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa and has drastically affected ecological security. Addressing environmental impacts related to this challenge requires efficient planning strategies based on the measured information of land use patterns. This study assessed the ecological risk index (ERI) of Zanzibar based on LULC. A random forest classifier was used to classify three Landsat images of Zanzibar for the years 2003, 2009, and 2018. Then, a land change model was employed to simulate the LULC changes for 2027 under a business-as-usual (BAU), conservation, and extreme scenarios. Results showed that the built-up areas and farmland of Zanzibar Island have increased constantly, while the natural grassland and forest cover have decreased. The forest, agricultural, and grassland were highly fragmented into several small patches. The ERI of Zanzibar Island increased at a constant rate and, if the current trend continues, this index will increase by up to 8.9% in 2027 under an extreme scenario. If a conservation scenario is adopted, the ERI will increase by 4.6% whereas if a BAU policy is followed, this value will increase by 6.2%. This study provides authorities with useful information to understand better the ecological processes and LULC dynamics and prevent unmanaged growth and haphazard development of informal housing and infrastructure.

Tropical and Mediterranean biodiversity is disproportionately sensitive to land-use and climate change

Global biodiversity is undergoing rapid declines, driven in large part by changes to land use and climate. Global models help us to understand the consequences of environmental changes for biodiversity, but tend to neglect important geographical variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. Here we test whether biodiversity responses to climate change and land-use change differ among biomes (geographical units that have marked differences in environment and species composition). We find the strongest negative responses to both pressures in tropical biomes and in the Mediterranean. A further analysis points towards similar underlying drivers for the sensitivity to each pressure: we find both greater reductions in species richness in the types of land use most disturbed by humans and more negative predicted responses to climate change in areas of lower climatic seasonality, and in areas where a greater proportion of species are near their upper temperature limit. Within the land most modified by humans, reductions in biodiversity were particularly large in regions where humans have come to dominate the land more recently. Our results will help to improve predictions of how biodiversity is likely to change with ongoing climatic and land-use changes, pointing toward particularly large declines in the tropics where much future agricultural expansion is expected to occur. This finding could help to inform the development of the post-2020 biodiversity framework, by highlighting the under-studied regions where biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest.

Management guidelines in disturbance-Prone populations: The importance of the intervention time

The use of conservation and management practices to buffer possible damages after disturbance events is growing to become popular worldwide. However, little is known about their efficacy in real-life situations. To fill this gap, we will derive management guidelines in disturbance-prone populations regarding the external introduction of individuals and the ecological restoration. We will also discuss the efficacy of these practices in the population dynamics of three species (a fast life-cycle mayfly, a slow life-cycle dragonfly and an ostracod) when their habitat suffers from periodic controlled flooding. One of the main messages of this paper is that the interplay between the inherited parameters of the population and disturbance events is a source of rich and unexpected behaviours. More importantly, intervention time plays a critical role in the performance of some management strategies.

A conceptual model to assess the impact of anthropogenic drivers on water-related ecosystem services in the Brazilian Cerrado

Abstract: The development of strategies that conciliate anthropogenic activities with nature conservation is becoming increasingly urgent, particularly in regions facing rapid conversion of native vegetation to agriculture. Conceptual modelling enables assessment of how anthropogenic drivers (e.g. land use/land cover change and climate change) modify natural processes, being a useful tool to support strategic decision-making. The present work describes a conceptual model to evaluate water-related ecosystem service provision under different land use scenarios in the Matopiba region of the Brazilian Cerrado, the world’s most biodiverse savanna and an agricultural frontier. Model variables were determined (direct drivers, indirect drivers, focal components and responses) and the Nature Futures Framework was consulted to incorporate socio-ecological components and feedbacks. Future scenarios were developed considering potential trajectories of drivers and governance responses that may impact land use in the region, including the possibility of full compliance with Forest Code and implementation of the Soy Moratorium in the region. The conceptual model and scenarios developed in the present study may be useful to improve understanding of the complex interactions among anthropogenic drivers, water-related ecosystem services and their potential repercussions for natural and social systems of the region. Governance decisions will be critical to maintaining the ecosystems of the region, the services it provides and the culture and tradition of the people historically embedded in the landscape. In acknowledgment of humanity’s dependence on nature, the importance of inverting the way scenarios are used is highlighted. Rather than using scenarios to measure the impacts of different policy options on nature, scenarios representing the desired outcomes for biodiversity and ecosystem services can be used to inform how policies can guarantee ecosystem integrity into the future.

Increasing capacity to produce scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services

Abstract: Extensive anthropogenic activities driven by the demand for agriculture and forestry products have led to dramatic reductions in biodiversity worldwide and significant changes in the provisioning of ecosystem services. These trends are expected to continue in the future as the world continues to develop without much consideration of the role that nature plays in sustaining human livelihoods. Scenarios and models can be important tools to help policy- and decision-makers foresee the impact of their decisions; thus, increasing capacity in creating such models and scenarios is of utmost importance. However, postgraduate training schools that focus on this topic are still rare. Here we present and reflect on the experience of the São Paulo School of Advanced Science on Scenarios and Modelling on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to Support Human Well-Being (SPSAS Scenarios). In addition, we introduce the Special Issue of Biota Neotropica that resulted from the activities taking place during the SPSAS Scenarios. In total, nine case studies emerged from the activities carried out during SPSAS Scenarios. These focused on a variety of ecosystems, their current drivers of change and expected trends, as well as on the development of alternative positive scenarios applying the recently developed Nature Futures Framework. We emphasize the need to increase capacity in scenario and modelling skills in order to address some of the existing gaps in producing policy-relevant scenarios and models for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Conservation palaeobiology and the shape of things to come

Conservation decision-making is a forward-looking process that involves choices among alternative images of how the future will unfold. Scenarios, easily understood as stories about plausible futures, are emerging as a powerful approach used by the conservation community to define a range of socio-ecological futures when standard, predictive modelling approaches to decision-making are inappropriate, providing a framework for making robust decisions under uncertainties. Conservation palaeobiologists can help the conservation community imagine the future. The utility of the past centres on orienting us to the present-grounding the future in the realm of what is plausible-by providing context against which to think about future scenarios, which may help stakeholders and decision-makers to develop a new mental map of a conservation problem, inspiring our intentions and moving us purposefully toward a desirable tomorrow. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Climate and land-use change homogenise terrestrial biodiversity, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and human well-being

Biodiversity continues to decline under the effect of multiple human pressures. We give a brief overview of the main pressures on biodiversity, before focusing on the two that have a predominant effect: land-use and climate change. We discuss how interactions between land-use and climate change in terrestrial systems are likely to have greater impacts than expected when only considering these pressures in isolation. Understanding biodiversity changes is complicated by the fact that such changes are likely to be uneven among different geographic regions and species. We review the evidence for variation in terrestrial biodiversity changes, relating differences among species to key ecological characteristics, and explaining how disproportionate impacts on certain species are leading to a spatial homogenisation of ecological communities. Finally, we explain how the overall losses and homogenisation of biodiversity, and the larger impacts upon certain types of species, are likely to lead to strong negative consequences for the functioning of ecosystems, and consequently for human well-being.

A concise guide to developing and using quantitative models in conservation management

Quantitative models are powerful tools for informing conservation management and decision-making. As applied modeling is increasingly used to address conservation problems, guidelines are required to clarify the scope of modeling applications and to facilitate the impact and acceptance of models by practitioners. We identify three key roles for quantitative models in conservation management: (a) to assess the extent of a conservation problem; (b) to provide insights into the dynamics of complex social and ecological systems; and, (c) to evaluate the efficacy of proposed conservation interventions. We describe 10 recommendations to facilitate the acceptance of quantitative models in conservation management, providing a basis for good practice to guide their development and evaluation in conservation applications. We structure these recommendations within four established phases of model construction, enabling their integration within existing workflows: (a) design (two recommendations); (b) specification (two); (c) evaluation (one); and (d) inference (five). Quantitative modeling can support effective conservation management provided that both managers and modelers understand and agree on the place for models in conservation. Our concise review and recommendations will assist conservation managers and modelers to collaborate in the development of quantitative models that are fit-for-purpose, and to trust and use these models appropriately while understanding key drivers of uncertainty.