1
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Kandolo BS, Yessoufou K, Kganyago M. Effectiveness of South Africa's network of protected areas: Unassessed vascular plants predicted to be threatened using deep neural networks are all located in protected areas. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e70229. [PMID: 39224161 PMCID: PMC11368562 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.70229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2024] [Revised: 07/29/2024] [Accepted: 08/09/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Globally, we are in the midst of a biodiversity crisis and megadiverse countries become key targets for conservation. South Africa, the only country in the world hosting three biodiversity hotspots within its borders, harbours a tremendous diversity of at-risk species deserving to be protected. However, the lengthy risk assessment process and the lack of required data to complete assessments is a serious limitation to conservation since several species may slide into extinction while awaiting risk assessment. Here, we employed a deep neural network model integrating species climatic and geographic features to predict the conservation status of 116 unassessed plant species. Our analysis involved in total of 1072 plant species and 96,938 occurrence points. The best-performing model exhibits high accuracy, reaching up to 83.6% at the binary classification and 56.8% at the detailed classification. Our best-performing model at the binary classification predicts that 32% (25 species) and 8% (3 species) of Data Deficient and Not-Evaluated species respectively, are likely threatened, amounting to a proportion of 24.1% of unassessed species facing a risk of extinction. Interestingly, all unassessed species predicted to be threatened are in protected areas, revealing the effectiveness of South Africa's network of protected areas in conservation, although these likely threatened species are more abundant outside protected areas. Considering the limitation in assessing only species with available data, there remains a possibility of a higher proportion of unassessed species being imperilled.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bahati Samuel Kandolo
- Department of Geography, Environmental Management and Energy StudiesUniversity of JohannesburgJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Kowiyou Yessoufou
- Department of Geography, Environmental Management and Energy StudiesUniversity of JohannesburgJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Mahlatse Kganyago
- Department of Geography, Environmental Management and Energy StudiesUniversity of JohannesburgJohannesburgSouth Africa
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2
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Kryukov K, Nakahama N, Kuraku S. Genome assembly catalog for species in the Japanese Red List: unlocking endangered biodiversity through genomic inventory. F1000Res 2024; 13:583. [PMID: 39050029 PMCID: PMC11267146 DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.149793.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/15/2024] [Indexed: 07/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Improvements in DNA sequencing technology are allowing the dramatic increase of whole genome data for a wide variety of species. Such genome sequence data can assist the monitoring of intraspecific genetic diversity, but is often lacking for threatened species. In this project, we focused on the national Red List, a catalog of extinct and threatened species, issued by the Japanese government. We combined the data included in it with the record of genome assembly in NCBI and tabulated the assembly availability of the species in the list. The combined data shows a low percentage (2.1%) of the availability of whole genome sequence data for the taxa ranked on the Japanese Red List as well as a strong bias towards mammals and birds in Animalia and vascular plants in Plantae. Our data presentation highlights potential systematic limitations in genome sequencing (e.g., budget for sequencing large genomes of amphibians) and instructs future policies including which taxon needs more effort for genome sequencing. The resultant tables are available in the original website https://treethinkers.nig.ac.jp/redlist/ and are regularly updated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirill Kryukov
- Center for Genome Informatics, Joint Support-Center for Data Science Research, Research Organization of Information and Systems, Mishima, Shizuoka, 411-8540, Japan
- Bioinformation and DDBJ Center, National Institute of Genetics, Mishima, Shizuoka, 411-8540, Japan
| | - Naoyuki Nakahama
- Institute of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Hyogo, Sanda, Hyogo, 669-1546, Japan
- Division of Ecological Restoration, Museum of Nature and Human Activities, Hyogo, Sanda, Hyogo, 669-1546, Japan
| | - Shigehiro Kuraku
- Molecular Life History Laboratory, National Institute of Genetics, Mishima, Shizuoka, 411-8540, Japan
- Department of Genetics, Sokendai Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Mishima, Shizuoka, 411-8540, Japan
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3
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Mouquet N, Langlois J, Casajus N, Auber A, Flandrin U, Guilhaumon F, Loiseau N, McLean M, Receveur A, Stuart Smith RD, Mouillot D. Low human interest for the most at-risk reef fishes worldwide. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadj9510. [PMID: 39018399 PMCID: PMC466977 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adj9510] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2023] [Accepted: 06/18/2024] [Indexed: 07/19/2024]
Abstract
Human interest in biodiversity is essential for effective conservation action but remains poorly quantified at large scales. Here, we investigated human interest for 2408 marine reef fishes using data obtained from online public databases and social media, summarized in two synthetic dimensions, research effort and public attention. Both dimensions are mainly related to geographic range size. Research effort is also linked to fishery importance, while public attention is more related to fish aesthetic value and aquarium trade importance. We also found a strong phylogenetic bias, with certain fish families receiving disproportional research effort and public attention. Most concerningly, species at the highest risk of extinction and those most vulnerable to future climate change tend to receive less research effort and public attention. Our results provide a lens through which examining the societal attention that species garner, with the ultimate goals to improve conservation strategies, research programs, and communication plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicolas Mouquet
- MARBEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Montpellier, France
- FRB-CESAB, 34000 Montpellier, France
| | | | | | - Arnaud Auber
- IFREMER, Unité Halieutique Manche Mer du Nord, Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques, Boulogne-sur-Mer, France
| | - Ulysse Flandrin
- MARBEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | | | - Nicolas Loiseau
- MARBEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Matthew McLean
- Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Wilmington, NC 28403. USA
| | | | - Rick D. Stuart Smith
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - David Mouillot
- MARBEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Montpellier, France
- Institut Universitaire de France, 1 rue Descartes, Paris, France
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4
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Lucas PM, Di Marco M, Cazalis V, Luedtke J, Neam K, Brown MH, Langhammer PF, Mancini G, Santini L. Using comparative extinction risk analysis to prioritize the IUCN Red List reassessments of amphibians. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024:e14316. [PMID: 38946355 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2023] [Revised: 03/25/2024] [Accepted: 03/27/2024] [Indexed: 07/02/2024]
Abstract
Assessing the extinction risk of species based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (RL) is key to guiding conservation policies and reducing biodiversity loss. This process is resource demanding, however, and requires continuous updating, which becomes increasingly difficult as new species are added to the RL. Automatic methods, such as comparative analyses used to predict species RL category, can be an efficient alternative to keep assessments up to date. Using amphibians as a study group, we predicted which species are more likely to change their RL category and thus should be prioritized for reassessment. We used species biological traits, environmental variables, and proxies of climate and land-use change as predictors of RL category. We produced an ensemble prediction of IUCN RL category for each species by combining 4 different model algorithms: cumulative link models, phylogenetic generalized least squares, random forests, and neural networks. By comparing RL categories with the ensemble prediction and accounting for uncertainty among model algorithms, we identified species that should be prioritized for future reassessment based on the mismatch between predicted and observed values. The most important predicting variables across models were species' range size and spatial configuration of the range, biological traits, climate change, and land-use change. We compared our proposed prioritization index and the predicted RL changes with independent IUCN RL reassessments and found high performance of both the prioritization and the predicted directionality of changes in RL categories. Ensemble modeling of RL category is a promising tool for prioritizing species for reassessment while accounting for models' uncertainty. This approach is broadly applicable to all taxa on the IUCN RL and to regional and national assessments and may improve allocation of the limited human and economic resources available to maintain an up-to-date IUCN RL.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Miguel Lucas
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Victor Cazalis
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Jennifer Luedtke
- IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Re:wild, Austin, Texas, USA
| | - Kelsey Neam
- IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Re:wild, Austin, Texas, USA
| | | | | | - Giordano Mancini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
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5
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Wang Z, Chen T, Yang L, Chapman CA, Fan P. Effects of protected area coverage and research on conservation status of primates globally. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024:e14311. [PMID: 38853694 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 03/10/2024] [Accepted: 04/22/2024] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
Conducting conservation research and establishing protected areas (PAs) based on research results are critical to biodiversity conservation. However, the effect of research and PAs on conservation of threatened species has rarely been evaluated simultaneously. We collected data on PAs from 2000 for 2021 and determined the number of publications on global primates (published from 1950 to 2021) to assess the effect of PAs, research, and biological and socioeconomic factors on the current International Union for Conservation of Nature endangered status and change in status. We used the MCMCglmm package to conduct a phylogenetic comparative analysis to control the phylogenetic relationship of primate species. The status of 24.6% (82 of 333) of species assessed at least twice declined. Only the black lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysopygus) had an improved status. Species with status declines mostly occurred on the south coast of West Africa and in Madagascar. PAs covered 22.1% of each species' range. Forest loss in PAs (5.5%) was significantly lower than forest loss within 5 km outside PAs (13.8%), suggesting PAs effectively mitigated forest loss. Both the median number of total publications and conservation publications on critically endangered species were higher than those of other categories. Models showed that PA coverage and number of publications or conservation-focused publications were not related to current status or change in status over time. A decline in status was not related to creation of PAs or increase of research since the last assessment. Our results suggest that current PAs and research are not reversing the extinction crisis of global primates. Doing more conservation-oriented research, strengthening management of current PAs, and expanding PAs will be needed to protect primates globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhining Wang
- School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Tao Chen
- School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Li Yang
- School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Colin A Chapman
- Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
- Biology Department, Vancouver Island University, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- The College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, China
| | - Pengfei Fan
- School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
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6
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Mancini G, Santini L, Cazalis V, Akçakaya HR, Lucas PM, Brooks TM, Foden W, Di Marco M. A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024; 38:e14227. [PMID: 38111977 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2023] [Revised: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 10/05/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023]
Abstract
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giordano Mancini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Victor Cazalis
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - H Reşit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, New York, New York, USA
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
| | - Pablo M Lucas
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Thomas M Brooks
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
- World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), University of The Philippines Los Baños, Los Baños, Philippines
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Wendy Foden
- Cape Research Centre, South African National Parks, Cape Town, South Africa
- Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and Zoology, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin,", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
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7
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Bachman SP, Brown MJM, Leão TCC, Nic Lughadha E, Walker BE. Extinction risk predictions for the world's flowering plants to support their conservation. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2024; 242:797-808. [PMID: 38437880 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/06/2024]
Abstract
More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, c. 330 000 species). We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species-level predictions. From our model predictions, we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full global, or regional Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.
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8
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de Lima RAF, Dauby G, de Gasper AL, Fernandez EP, Vibrans AC, Oliveira AAD, Prado PI, Souza VC, F de Siqueira M, Ter Steege H. Comprehensive conservation assessments reveal high extinction risks across Atlantic Forest trees. Science 2024; 383:219-225. [PMID: 38207046 DOI: 10.1126/science.abq5099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2024]
Abstract
Biodiversity is declining globally, yet many biodiversity hotspots still lack comprehensive species conservation assessments. Using multiple International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria to evaluate extinction risks and millions of herbarium and forest inventory records, we present automated conservation assessments for all tree species of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot, including ~1100 heretofore unassessed species. About 65% of all species and 82% of endemic species are classified as threatened. We rediscovered five species classified as Extinct on the IUCN Red List and identified 13 endemics as possibly extinct. Uncertainties in species information had little influence on the assessments, but using fewer Red List criteria severely underestimated threat levels. We suggest that the conservation status of tropical forests worldwide is worse than previously reported.
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Affiliation(s)
- Renato A F de Lima
- Tropical Botany, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Darwinweg 2, 2333 CR Leiden, Netherlands
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, ESALQ, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida Pádua Dias, 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, Brazil
| | - Gilles Dauby
- Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (AMAP), Université de Montpellier, IRD, CNRS, INRAE, CIRAD, Montpellier, France
| | - André L de Gasper
- Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Regional de Blumenau, Rua Antônio da Veiga, 140, 89030-903 Blumenau, Brazil
| | - Eduardo P Fernandez
- Centro Nacional de Conservação da Flora (IUCN SSC Brazil Plant Red List Authority), Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Pacheco Leão, 915, 22460-030 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Alexander C Vibrans
- Departamento de Engenharia Florestal, Universidade Regional de Blumenau, Rua São Paulo, 3250, 89030-000 Blumenau, Brazil
| | - Alexandre A de Oliveira
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão, trav. 14, 321, 05508-090 São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Paulo I Prado
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão, trav. 14, 321, 05508-090 São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Vinícius C Souza
- Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, ESALQ, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida Pádua Dias, 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, Brazil
| | - Marinez F de Siqueira
- Centro Nacional de Conservação da Flora (IUCN SSC Brazil Plant Red List Authority), Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Pacheco Leão, 915, 22460-030 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Departamento de Biologia, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Marquês de São Vicente 225, 22451-900 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Hans Ter Steege
- Tropical Botany, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Darwinweg 2, 2333 CR Leiden, Netherlands
- Quantitative Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands
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9
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Boonman CCF, Serra-Diaz JM, Hoeks S, Guo WY, Enquist BJ, Maitner B, Malhi Y, Merow C, Buitenwerf R, Svenning JC. More than 17,000 tree species are at risk from rapid global change. Nat Commun 2024; 15:166. [PMID: 38167693 PMCID: PMC10761716 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44321-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 12/08/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Trees are pivotal to global biodiversity and nature's contributions to people, yet accelerating global changes threaten global tree diversity, making accurate species extinction risk assessments necessary. To identify species that require expert-based re-evaluation, we assess exposure to change in six anthropogenic threats over the last two decades for 32,090 tree species. We estimated that over half (54.2%) of the assessed species have been exposed to increasing threats. Only 8.7% of these species are considered threatened by the IUCN Red List, whereas they include more than half of the Data Deficient species (57.8%). These findings suggest a substantial underestimation of threats and associated extinction risk for tree species in current assessments. We also map hotspots of tree species exposed to rapidly changing threats around the world. Our data-driven approach can strengthen the efforts going into expert-based IUCN Red List assessments by facilitating prioritization among species for re-evaluation, allowing for more efficient conservation efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Coline C F Boonman
- Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
| | - Josep M Serra-Diaz
- Department of Ecology and Evolution and Eversource Energy Center, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
- Université de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, INRAE, Silva, Nancy, France
| | - Selwyn Hoeks
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences (RIBES), Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Wen-Yong Guo
- Research Center for Global Change and Complex Ecosystems, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, People's Republic of China
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, People's Republic of China
| | - Brian J Enquist
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Brian Maitner
- Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
| | - Yadvinder Malhi
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, England, UK
- Leverhulme Centre for Nature Recovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Cory Merow
- Department of Ecology and Evolution and Eversource Energy Center, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
| | - Robert Buitenwerf
- Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
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10
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Henry EG, Santini L, Butchart SHM, González-Suárez M, Lucas PM, Benítez-López A, Mancini G, Jung M, Cardoso P, Zizka A, Meyer C, Akçakaya HR, Berryman AJ, Cazalis V, Di Marco M. Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17119. [PMID: 38273572 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 12/02/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Comparative extinction risk analysis-which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics-has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.
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Affiliation(s)
- Etienne G Henry
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Manuela González-Suárez
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Pablo M Lucas
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
- Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Ana Benítez-López
- Department of Biogeography and Global Change, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Giordano Mancini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Martin Jung
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Management Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Pedro Cardoso
- Faculty of Sciences, CE3C - Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Sciences, CHANGE - Institute for Global Change and Sustainability, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe), Finnish Museum of Natural History Luomus, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Alexander Zizka
- Department of Biology, Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Carsten Meyer
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - H Reşit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, New York, USA
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
| | | | - Victor Cazalis
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
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11
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Emerson BC, Borges PAV, Cardoso P, Convey P, deWaard JR, Economo EP, Gillespie RG, Kennedy S, Krehenwinkel H, Meier R, Roderick GK, Strasberg D, Thébaud C, Traveset A, Creedy TJ, Meramveliotakis E, Noguerales V, Overcast I, Morlon H, Papadopoulou A, Vogler AP, Arribas P, Andújar C. Collective and harmonized high throughput barcoding of insular arthropod biodiversity: Toward a Genomic Observatories Network for islands. Mol Ecol 2023; 32:6161-6176. [PMID: 36156326 DOI: 10.1111/mec.16683] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Revised: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 08/19/2022] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Current understanding of ecological and evolutionary processes underlying island biodiversity is heavily shaped by empirical data from plants and birds, although arthropods comprise the overwhelming majority of known animal species, and as such can provide key insights into processes governing biodiversity. Novel high throughput sequencing (HTS) approaches are now emerging as powerful tools to overcome limitations in the availability of arthropod biodiversity data, and hence provide insights into these processes. Here, we explored how these tools might be most effectively exploited for comprehensive and comparable inventory and monitoring of insular arthropod biodiversity. We first reviewed the strengths, limitations and potential synergies among existing approaches of high throughput barcode sequencing. We considered how this could be complemented with deep learning approaches applied to image analysis to study arthropod biodiversity. We then explored how these approaches could be implemented within the framework of an island Genomic Observatories Network (iGON) for the advancement of fundamental and applied understanding of island biodiversity. To this end, we identified seven island biology themes at the interface of ecology, evolution and conservation biology, within which collective and harmonized efforts in HTS arthropod inventory could yield significant advances in island biodiversity research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brent C Emerson
- Island Ecology and Evolution Research Group, Institute of Natural Products and Agrobiology (IPNA-CSIC), San Cristóbal de la Laguna, Spain
| | - Paulo A V Borges
- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c)/Azorean Biodiversity Group, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Environment, CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, University of the Azores, Angra do Heroísmo, Portugal
| | - Pedro Cardoso
- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c)/Azorean Biodiversity Group, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Environment, CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, University of the Azores, Angra do Heroísmo, Portugal
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe), Finnish Museum of Natural History Luomus, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Peter Convey
- British Antarctic Survey, NERC, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, South Africa
| | - Jeremy R deWaard
- Centre for Biodiversity Genomics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
| | - Evan P Economo
- Biodiversity and Biocomplexity Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Okinawa, Japan
- Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Rosemary G Gillespie
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Susan Kennedy
- Biodiversity and Biocomplexity Unit, Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University, Okinawa, Japan
| | | | - Rudolf Meier
- Center for Integrative Biodiversity Discovery, Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Museum für Naturkunde, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore City, Singapore
| | - George K Roderick
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | | | - Christophe Thébaud
- UMR 5174 EDB Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique, Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse III, CNRS, IRD, Toulouse, France
| | - Anna Traveset
- Global Change Research Group, Mediterranean Institut of Advanced Studies (CSIC-UIB), Mallorca, Spain
| | - Thomas J Creedy
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK
| | | | - Víctor Noguerales
- Island Ecology and Evolution Research Group, Institute of Natural Products and Agrobiology (IPNA-CSIC), San Cristóbal de la Laguna, Spain
| | - Isaac Overcast
- Département de Biologie, École normale supérieure, Institut de Biologie de l'ENS (IBENS), CNRS, INSERM, Université PSL, Paris, France
| | - Hélène Morlon
- Département de Biologie, École normale supérieure, Institut de Biologie de l'ENS (IBENS), CNRS, INSERM, Université PSL, Paris, France
| | - Anna Papadopoulou
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Alfried P Vogler
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Paula Arribas
- Island Ecology and Evolution Research Group, Institute of Natural Products and Agrobiology (IPNA-CSIC), San Cristóbal de la Laguna, Spain
| | - Carmelo Andújar
- Island Ecology and Evolution Research Group, Institute of Natural Products and Agrobiology (IPNA-CSIC), San Cristóbal de la Laguna, Spain
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12
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Cazalis V, Santini L, Lucas PM, González-Suárez M, Hoffmann M, Benítez-López A, Pacifici M, Schipper AM, Böhm M, Zizka A, Clausnitzer V, Meyer C, Jung M, Butchart SHM, Cardoso P, Mancini G, Akçakaya HR, Young BE, Patoine G, Di Marco M. Prioritizing the reassessment of data-deficient species on the IUCN Red List. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e14139. [PMID: 37394972 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Revised: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
Despite being central to the implementation of conservation policies, the usefulness of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is hampered by the 14% of species classified as data-deficient (DD) because information to evaluate these species' extinction risk was lacking when they were last assessed or because assessors did not appropriately account for uncertainty. Robust methods are needed to identify which DD species are more likely to be reclassified in one of the data-sufficient IUCN Red List categories. We devised a reproducible method to help red-list assessors prioritize reassessment of DD species and tested it with 6887 DD species of mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fishes, and Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies). For each DD species in these groups, we calculated its probability of being classified in a data-sufficient category if reassessed today from covariates measuring available knowledge (e.g., number of occurrence records or published articles available), knowledge proxies (e.g., remoteness of the range), and species characteristics (e.g., nocturnality); calculated change in such probability since last assessment from the increase in available knowledge (e.g., new occurrence records); and determined whether the species might qualify as threatened based on recent rate of habitat loss determined from global land-cover maps. We identified 1907 species with a probability of being reassessed in a data-sufficient category of >0.5; 624 species for which this probability increased by >0.25 since last assessment; and 77 species that could be reassessed as near threatened or threatened based on habitat loss. Combining these 3 elements, our results provided a list of species likely to be data-sufficient such that the comprehensiveness and representativeness of the IUCN Red List can be improved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor Cazalis
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Pablo M Lucas
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Manuela González-Suárez
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | | | - Ana Benítez-López
- Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Michela Pacifici
- Global Mammal Assessment Programme, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - Aafke M Schipper
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences (RIBES), Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Monika Böhm
- Global Center for Species Survival, Indianapolis Zoological Society, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Alexander Zizka
- Department of Biology, Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | | | - Carsten Meyer
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Geosciences and Geography, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Martin Jung
- Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Management Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Pedro Cardoso
- Laboratory for Integrative Biodiversity Research (LIBRe), Finnish Museum of Natural History Luomus, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Giordano Mancini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
| | - H Reşit Akçakaya
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
- IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), Gland, Switzerland
| | | | - Guillaume Patoine
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy
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13
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Moens M, Biesmeijer JC, Klumpers SGT, Marshall L. Are threatened species special? An assessment of Dutch bees in relation to land use and climate. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10326. [PMID: 37502308 PMCID: PMC10369158 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2022] [Revised: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 07/02/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Red Lists are widely used as an indicator of the status and trends of biodiversity and are often used in directing conservation efforts. However, it is unclear whether species with a Least Concern status share a common relationship to environmental correlates compared to species that are on the Red List. To assess this, we focus here on the contribution and correlates of land use, climate, and soil to the occurrence of wild bees in the Netherlands. We used observation data and species distribution models to explain the relation between wild bees and the environment. Non-threatened bees had a relatively higher variable importance of the land use variables to their models, as opposed to the climate variables for the threatened bees. The threatened bees had a smaller extent of occurrence and occupied areas with more extreme climatic conditions. Bees with a Least Concern status showed more positive responses to urban green spaces and Red List species showed a different response to climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation. Even though Red List bees were found in areas with a higher cover of natural areas, they showed a more selective response to natural land use types. Pastures and crops were the main contributing land use variables and showed almost exclusively a negative correlation with the distribution of all wild bees. This knowledge supports the implementation of appropriate, species-specific conservation measures, including the preservation of natural areas, and the improvement of land use practices in agricultural and urban areas, which may help mitigate the negative impacts of future global change on species' distributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Merijn Moens
- Naturalis Biodiversity CenterLeidenThe Netherlands
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)Leiden UniversityLeidenThe Netherlands
| | - Jacobus C. Biesmeijer
- Naturalis Biodiversity CenterLeidenThe Netherlands
- Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML)Leiden UniversityLeidenThe Netherlands
| | | | - Leon Marshall
- Naturalis Biodiversity CenterLeidenThe Netherlands
- Agroecology Lab, Interfaculty School of BioengineeringUniversité libre de Bruxelles (ULB)BrusselsBelgium
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14
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Froidevaux JSP, Toshkova N, Barbaro L, Benítez-López A, Kerbiriou C, Le Viol I, Pacifici M, Santini L, Stawski C, Russo D, Dekker J, Alberdi A, Amorim F, Ancillotto L, Barré K, Bas Y, Cantú-Salazar L, Dechmann DKN, Devaux T, Eldegard K, Fereidouni S, Furmankiewicz J, Hamidovic D, Hill DL, Ibáñez C, Julien JF, Juste J, Kaňuch P, Korine C, Laforge A, Legras G, Leroux C, Lesiński G, Mariton L, Marmet J, Mata VA, Mifsud CM, Nistreanu V, Novella-Fernandez R, Rebelo H, Roche N, Roemer C, Ruczyński I, Sørås R, Uhrin M, Vella A, Voigt CC, Razgour O. A species-level trait dataset of bats in Europe and beyond. Sci Data 2023; 10:253. [PMID: 37137926 PMCID: PMC10156679 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02157-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2022] [Accepted: 04/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Knowledge of species' functional traits is essential for understanding biodiversity patterns, predicting the impacts of global environmental changes, and assessing the efficiency of conservation measures. Bats are major components of mammalian diversity and occupy a variety of ecological niches and geographic distributions. However, an extensive compilation of their functional traits and ecological attributes is still missing. Here we present EuroBaTrait 1.0, the most comprehensive and up-to-date trait dataset covering 47 European bat species. The dataset includes data on 118 traits including genetic composition, physiology, morphology, acoustic signature, climatic associations, foraging habitat, roost type, diet, spatial behaviour, life history, pathogens, phenology, and distribution. We compiled the bat trait data obtained from three main sources: (i) a systematic literature and dataset search, (ii) unpublished data from European bat experts, and (iii) observations from large-scale monitoring programs. EuroBaTrait is designed to provide an important data source for comparative and trait-based analyses at the species or community level. The dataset also exposes knowledge gaps in species, geographic and trait coverage, highlighting priorities for future data collection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jérémy S P Froidevaux
- University of Stirling, Biological and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, FK9 4LJ, Stirling, UK.
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France.
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Life Sciences Building, BS8 1TQ, Bristol, UK.
| | - Nia Toshkova
- Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 1 Tsar Osvoboditel Blvd., 1000, Sofia, Bulgaria
- National Museum of Natural History at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Luc Barbaro
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
- DYNAFOR, INRAE-INPT, University of Toulouse, Castanet-Tolosan, France
| | - Ana Benítez-López
- Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain
- Department of Zoology, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Christian Kerbiriou
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Isabelle Le Viol
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Michela Pacifici
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Luca Santini
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies "Charles Darwin", Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Clare Stawski
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, NO-7491, Norway
- School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Queensland, 4558, Australia
| | - Danilo Russo
- Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Evolution (AnEcoEvo), Dipartimento di Agraria, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Università, 100, 80055, Portici (Napoli), Italy.
| | - Jasja Dekker
- Jasja Dekker Dierecologie BV, Arnhem, the Netherlands
| | - Antton Alberdi
- Center for Evolutionary Hologenomics, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Francisco Amorim
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal
| | - Leonardo Ancillotto
- Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Evolution (AnEcoEvo), Dipartimento di Agraria, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, via Università, 100, 80055, Portici (Napoli), Italy
| | - Kévin Barré
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Yves Bas
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
- CEFE, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Lisette Cantú-Salazar
- Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Environmental Research and Innovation, 41 rue du Brill, L-4422, Belvaux, Luxemburg
| | - Dina K N Dechmann
- Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Department of Migration, Am Obstberg 1, 78315, Radolfzell, Germany
- University of Konstanz, Department of Biology, Universitätsstr. 10, 78464, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Tiphaine Devaux
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Katrine Eldegard
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432, Ås, Norway
| | - Sasan Fereidouni
- Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Joanna Furmankiewicz
- Department of Behavioural Ecology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Wroclaw, Sienkiewicza 21, 50-335, Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Daniela Hamidovic
- Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development, Institute for Environment and Nature, Radnička cesta 80, HR-10000, Zagreb, Croatia
- Croatian Biospeleological Society, Rooseveltov trg 6, HR-10000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Davina L Hill
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Carlos Ibáñez
- Department Evolutionary Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain
| | - Jean-François Julien
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Javier Juste
- Department Evolutionary Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, 28220, Madrid, Spain
| | - Peter Kaňuch
- Institute of Forest Ecology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Carmi Korine
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, 8499000, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - Alexis Laforge
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Gaëlle Legras
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Camille Leroux
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
- Auddicé Biodiversité- ZAC du Chevalement, 5 rue des Molettes, 59286, Roost-Warendin, France
| | - Grzegorz Lesiński
- Institute of Animal Science, Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), Ciszewskiego 8, 02-787, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Léa Mariton
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
- Institut de Minéralogie, de Physique des Matériaux et de Cosmochimie (IMPMC), Sorbonne Université, CNRS, MNHN, IRD, 61 Rue Buffon, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Julie Marmet
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
| | - Vanessa A Mata
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal
| | - Clare M Mifsud
- Conservation Biology Research Group, Biology Department, University of Malta, MSD2080, Msida, Malta
| | | | - Roberto Novella-Fernandez
- Technical University of Munich, Terrestrial Ecology Research Group, Department for Life Science Systems, School of Life Sciences, Freising, Germany
| | - Hugo Rebelo
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal
- ESS, Polytechnic Institute of Setúbal, Campus do IPS - Estefanilha, 2910-761, Setúbal, Portugal
| | - Niamh Roche
- Bat Conservation Ireland, Carmichael House, 4-7, North Brunswick Street, Dublin, D07 RHA8, Ireland
| | - Charlotte Roemer
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO, UMR 7204), CNRS, MNHN, Sorbonne-Université, 29900 Concarneau, 75005, Paris, France
- CEFE, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Ireneusz Ruczyński
- Mammal Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences, Stoczek 1, 17-230, Białowieża, Poland
| | - Rune Sørås
- Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, NO-7491, Norway
| | - Marcel Uhrin
- Institute of Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Science, P. J, Šafárik University in Košice, Košice, Slovakia
| | - Adriana Vella
- Conservation Biology Research Group, Biology Department, University of Malta, MSD2080, Msida, Malta
| | - Christian C Voigt
- Department Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Str. 17, 10315, Berlin, Germany
| | - Orly Razgour
- Biosciences, University of Exeter, Streatham Campus, Hatherly Laboratories, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK.
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15
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Walker BE, Leão TCC, Bachman SP, Lucas E, Nic Lughadha E. Evidence-based guidelines for automated conservation assessments of plant species. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e13992. [PMID: 36047690 PMCID: PMC10092660 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13992] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2021] [Revised: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Assessing species' extinction risk is vital to setting conservation priorities. However, assessment endeavors, such as those used to produce the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, have significant gaps in taxonomic coverage. Automated assessment (AA) methods are gaining popularity to fill these gaps. Choices made in developing, using, and reporting results of AA methods could hinder their successful adoption or lead to poor allocation of conservation resources. We explored how choice of data cleaning type and level, taxonomic group, training sample, and automation method affect performance of threat status predictions for plant species. We used occurrences from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to generate assessments for species in 3 taxonomic groups based on 6 different occurrence-based AA methods. We measured each method's performance and coverage following increasingly stringent occurrence cleaning. Automatically cleaned data from GBIF performed comparably to occurrence records cleaned manually by experts. However, all types of data cleaning limited the coverage of AAs. Overall, machine-learning-based methods performed well across taxa, even with minimal data cleaning. Results suggest a machine-learning-based method applied to minimally cleaned data offers the best compromise between performance and species coverage. However, optimal data cleaning, training sample, and automation methods depend on the study group, intended applications, and expertise.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Eve Lucas
- Royal Botanic GardensKewRichmond, Surrey, TW9 3AEUK
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16
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Carvajal-Quintero J, Comte L, Giam X, Olden JD, Brose U, Erős T, Filipe AF, Fortin MJ, Irving K, Jacquet C, Larsen S, Ruhi A, Sharma S, Villalobos F, Tedesco PA. Scale of population synchrony confirms macroecological estimates of minimum viable range size. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:291-301. [PMID: 36468276 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2022] [Revised: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Global ecosystems are facing a deepening biodiversity crisis, necessitating robust approaches to quantifying species extinction risk. The lower limit of the macroecological relationship between species range and body size has long been hypothesized as an estimate of the relationship between the minimum viable range size (MVRS) needed for species persistence and the organismal traits that affect space and resource requirements. Here, we perform the first explicit test of this assumption by confronting the MVRS predicted by the range-body size relationship with an independent estimate based on the scale of synchrony in abundance among spatially separated populations of riverine fish. We provide clear evidence of a positive relationship between the scale of synchrony and species body size, and strong support for the MVRS set by the lower limit of the range-body size macroecological relationship. This MVRS may help prioritize first evaluations for unassessed or data-deficient taxa in global conservation assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan Carvajal-Quintero
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena- Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.,Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Lise Comte
- School of Biological Sciences, Illinois State University, Normal, Illinois, USA
| | - Xingli Giam
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Julian D Olden
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Ulrich Brose
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena- Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.,Institute of Biodiversity, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Jena, Germany
| | - Tibor Erős
- Balaton Limnological Research Institute, ELKH, Tihany, Hungary
| | - Ana Filipa Filipe
- Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.,Associate Laboratory TERRA, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Marie-Josée Fortin
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Katie Irving
- Department of Biology, Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, California, USA
| | - Claire Jacquet
- Department of Aquatic Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland.,Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Stefano Larsen
- Fondazione Edmund Mach, Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all'Adige, Italy.,Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Albert Ruhi
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Sapna Sharma
- Department of Biology, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Fabricio Villalobos
- Laboratorio de Macroecología Evolutiva, Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología, Veracruz, Mexico
| | - Pablo A Tedesco
- UMR EDB, IRD 253, CNRS 5174, UPS, Université Toulouse 3 Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
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17
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Anderson RP. Integrating habitat-masked range maps with quantifications of prevalence to estimate area of occupancy in IUCN assessments. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e14019. [PMID: 36285611 PMCID: PMC10099578 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Revised: 07/11/2022] [Accepted: 08/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Estimates of species geographic ranges constitute critical input for biodiversity assessments, including those for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. Area of occupancy (AOO) is one metric that IUCN uses to quantify a species' range, but data limitations typically lead to either under- or overestimates (and unnecessarily wide bounds of uncertainty). Fortunately, existing methods in which range maps and land-cover data are used to estimate the area currently holding habitat for a species can be extended to yield an unbiased range of plausible estimates for AOO. Doing so requires estimating the proportion of sites (currently containing habitat) that a species occupies within its range (i.e., prevalence). Multiplying a quantification of habitat area by prevalence yields an estimate of what the species inhabits (i.e., AOO). For species with intense sampling at many sites, presence-absence data sets or occupancy modeling allow calculation of prevalence. For other species, primary biodiversity data (records of a species' presence at a point in space and time) from citizen-science initiatives and research collections of natural history museums and herbaria could be used. In such cases, estimates of sample prevalence should be corrected by dividing by the species' detectability. To estimate detectability from these data sources, extensions of inventory-completeness analyses merit development. With investments to increase the quality and availability of online biodiversity data, consideration of prevalence should lead to tighter and more realistic bounds of AOO for many taxonomic groups and geographic regions. By leading to more realistic and representative characterizations of biodiversity, integrating maps of current habitat with estimates of prevalence should empower conservation practitioners and decision makers and thus guide actions and policy worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert P. Anderson
- Department of Biology, City College of New YorkCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Ph.D. Program in BiologyGraduate Center, City University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Division of Vertebrate Zoology (Mammalogy)American Museum of Natural HistoryNew YorkNew YorkUSA
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18
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Measuring the Impact of Conservation: The Growing Importance of Monitoring Fauna, Flora and Funga. DIVERSITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/d14100824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Many stakeholders, from governments to civil society to businesses, lack the data they need to make informed decisions on biodiversity, jeopardising efforts to conserve, restore and sustainably manage nature. Here we review the importance of enhancing biodiversity monitoring, assess the challenges involved and identify potential solutions. Capacity for biodiversity monitoring needs to be enhanced urgently, especially in poorer, high-biodiversity countries where data gaps are disproportionately high. Modern tools and technologies, including remote sensing, bioacoustics and environmental DNA, should be used at larger scales to fill taxonomic and geographic data gaps, especially in the tropics, in marine and freshwater biomes, and for plants, fungi and invertebrates. Stakeholders need to follow best monitoring practices, adopting appropriate indicators and using counterfactual approaches to measure and attribute outcomes and impacts. Data should be made openly and freely available. Companies need to invest in collecting the data required to enhance sustainability in their operations and supply chains. With governments soon to commit to the post-2020 global biodiversity framework, the time is right to make a concerted push on monitoring. However, action at scale is needed now if we are to enhance results-based management adequately to conserve the biodiversity and ecosystem services we all depend on.
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19
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The likely extinction of hundreds of palm species threatens their contributions to people and ecosystems. Nat Ecol Evol 2022; 6:1710-1722. [PMID: 36163257 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-022-01858-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2021] [Accepted: 07/24/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Protecting nature's contributions to people requires accelerating extinction risk assessment and better integrating evolutionary, functional and used diversity with conservation planning. Here, we report machine learning extinction risk predictions for 1,381 palm species (Arecaceae), a plant family of high socio-economic and ecological importance. We integrate these predictions with published assessments for 508 species (covering 75% of all palm species) and we identify top-priority regions for palm conservation on the basis of their proportion of threatened evolutionarily distinct, functionally distinct and used species. Finally, we explore palm use resilience to identify non-threatened species that could potentially serve as substitutes for threatened used species by providing similar products. We estimate that over a thousand palms (56%) are probably threatened, including 185 species with documented uses. Some regions (New Guinea, Vanuatu and Vietnam) emerge as top ten priorities for conservation only after incorporating machine learning extinction risk predictions. Potential substitutes are identified for 91% of the threatened used species and regional use resilience increases with total palm richness. However, 16 threatened used species lack potential substitutes and 30 regions lack substitutes for at least one of their threatened used palm species. Overall, we show that hundreds of species of this keystone family face extinction, some of them probably irreplaceable, at least locally. This highlights the need for urgent actions to avoid major repercussions on palm-associated ecosystem processes and human livelihoods in the coming decades.
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20
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More than half of data deficient species predicted to be threatened by extinction. Commun Biol 2022; 5:679. [PMID: 35927327 PMCID: PMC9352662 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-022-03638-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is essential for practical and theoretical efforts to protect biodiversity. However, species classified as “Data Deficient” (DD) regularly mislead practitioners due to their uncertain extinction risk. Here we present machine learning-derived probabilities of being threatened by extinction for 7699 DD species, comprising 17% of the entire IUCN spatial datasets. Our predictions suggest that DD species as a group may in fact be more threatened than data-sufficient species. We found that 85% of DD amphibians are likely to be threatened by extinction, as well as more than half of DD species in many other taxonomic groups, such as mammals and reptiles. Consequently, our predictions indicate that, amongst others, the conservation relevance of biodiversity hotspots in South America may be boosted by up to 20% if DD species were acknowledged. The predicted probabilities for DD species are highly variable across taxa and regions, implying current Red List-derived indices and priorities may be biased. Data Deficient species are more likely to be at extinction risk than previously thought across multiple taxonomic groups.
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21
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Nania D, Lumbierres M, Ficetola GF, Falaschi M, Pacifici M, Rondinini C. Maps of area of habitat for Italian amphibians and reptiles. NATURE CONSERVATION 2022. [DOI: 10.3897/natureconservation.49.82931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
Planning conservation actions requires detailed information on species’ geographic distribution. Species distribution data are most needed in areas hosting unique or endangered biodiversity. Italy is one of the European countries with the highest levels of herpetological diversity and endemism and is home to several threatened species of amphibians and reptiles. Information on the distribution of species’ habitats can help identify sites where the species is most likely to thrive, as viable populations depend on it. Area of Habitat (AOH) maps reveal the distribution of the habitat available to the species within their geographic range. We produced high resolution, freely accessible global area of habitat maps for 60 species of reptiles and amphibians distributed in Italy, which represent 60% of all Italian amphibian and reptile species. We validated a total of 44 AOH maps through a presence-only based evaluation method, with 86% of these maps showing a performance better than expected by chance. AOH maps can be used as a reference for conservation planning, as well as to investigate macroecological patterns of Italian herpetofauna. Furthermore, AOH maps can help monitoring habitat loss, which is known to be a major threat to many reptile and amphibian species in Europe.
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22
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Abstract
This Primer explores the implications of a new PLOS Biology study that presents an innovative method for estimating extinction risk in reptile species worldwide; this method represents a promising avenue to support Red List assessment, alongside some well-known challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moreno Di Marco
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
- * E-mail:
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23
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Caetano GHDO, Chapple DG, Grenyer R, Raz T, Rosenblatt J, Tingley R, Böhm M, Meiri S, Roll U. Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny. PLoS Biol 2022; 20:e3001544. [PMID: 35617356 PMCID: PMC9135251 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001544] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2021] [Accepted: 04/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning–based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles—the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel Henrique de Oliveira Caetano
- Jacob Blaustein Center for Scientific Cooperation, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - David G. Chapple
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Richard Grenyer
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Tal Raz
- School of Zoology and Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | | | - Reid Tingley
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Monika Böhm
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, United Kingdom
- Global Center for Species Survival, Indianapolis Zoological Society, Indianapolis, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Shai Meiri
- School of Zoology and Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Uri Roll
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
- * E-mail:
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24
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Silva SV, Andermann T, Zizka A, Kozlowski G, Silvestro D. Global Estimation and Mapping of the Conservation Status of Tree Species Using Artificial Intelligence. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2022; 13:839792. [PMID: 35574125 PMCID: PMC9100559 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2022.839792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2021] [Accepted: 03/07/2022] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Trees are fundamental for Earth's biodiversity as primary producers and ecosystem engineers and are responsible for many of nature's contributions to people. Yet, many tree species at present are threatened with extinction by human activities. Accurate identification of threatened tree species is necessary to quantify the current biodiversity crisis and to prioritize conservation efforts. However, the most comprehensive dataset of tree species extinction risk-the Red List of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN RL)-lacks assessments for a substantial number of known tree species. The RL is based on a time-consuming expert-based assessment process, which hampers the inclusion of less-known species and the continued updating of extinction risk assessments. In this study, we used a computational pipeline to approximate RL extinction risk assessments for more than 21,000 tree species (leading to an overall assessment of 89% of all known tree species) using a supervised learning approach trained based on available IUCN RL assessments. We harvested the occurrence data for tree species worldwide from online databases, which we used with other publicly available data to design features characterizing the species' geographic range, biome and climatic affinities, and exposure to human footprint. We trained deep neural network models to predict their conservation status, based on these features. We estimated 43% of the assessed tree species to be threatened with extinction and found taxonomic and geographic heterogeneities in the distribution of threatened species. The results are consistent with the recent estimates by the Global Tree Assessment initiative, indicating that our approach provides robust and time-efficient approximations of species' IUCN RL extinction risk assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandro Valerio Silva
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
- Interfaculty Bioinformatics Unit, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Tobias Andermann
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
- Global Gothenburg Biodiversity Centre, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Sweden, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Alexander Zizka
- Department of Biology, Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Gregor Kozlowski
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
| | - Daniele Silvestro
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
- Global Gothenburg Biodiversity Centre, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Sweden, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Fribourg, Switzerland
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