Impact of measles supplementary immunization activities on reaching children missed by routine programs

Measles Population Immunity Profiles: Updated Methods and Tools

Measles is a highly contagious disease and remains a major cause of child mortality worldwide. While measles vaccine is highly effective, high levels of population immunity are needed to prevent outbreaks. Simple but accurate tools are needed to estimate the profile of population measles immunity by age to identify and fill immunity gaps caused by low levels of vaccination coverage. The measles immunity profile estimates and visualizes the percentage of each birth cohort immune or susceptible to measles based on measles vaccination coverage. Several tools that employed this approach have been developed in the past, including informal unpublished versions. However, these tools used varying assumptions and produced inconsistent results. We updated the measles population immunity profile methodology to standardize and better document the assumptions and methods; provide timely estimates of measles population immunity; and facilitate prompt actions to close immunity gaps and prevent outbreaks. We recommend assuming that the second dose of the measles-containing vaccine (MCV2) and doses given during supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) first reach children who have been previously vaccinated against measles, so that previously unvaccinated children are reached only when the coverage of MCV2 or SIA is higher than the coverage achieved by all previous measles vaccination opportunities. This updated method provides a conservative estimate of immunization program impact to assess measles outbreak risk and to facilitate early planning of timely preventive SIAs to close population immunity gaps.

The impact of sub-national heterogeneities in demography and epidemiology on the introduction of rubella vaccination programs in Nigeria

Rubella infection during pregnancy can result in miscarriage or infants with a constellation of birth defects known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). When coverage is inadequate, rubella vaccination can increase CRS cases by increasing the average age of infection. Thus, the World Health Organisation recommends that countries introducing rubella vaccine be able to vaccinate at least 80% of each birth cohort. Previous studies have focused on national-level analyses and have overlooked sub-national variation in introduction risk. We characterised the sub-national heterogeneity in rubella transmission within Nigeria and modelled local rubella vaccine introduction under different scenarios to refine the set of conditions and strategies required for safe rubella vaccine use. Across Nigeria, the basic reproduction number ranged from 2.6 to 6.2. Consequently, the conditions for safe vaccination varied across states with low-risk areas requiring coverage levels well below 80 %. In high-risk settings, inadequate routine coverage needed to be supplemented by campaigns that allowed for gradual improvements in vaccination coverage over time. Understanding local heterogeneities in both short-term and long-term epidemic dynamics can permit earlier nationwide introduction of rubella vaccination and identify sub-national areas suitable for program monitoring, program improvement and campaign support.

Optimal Timing Regularly Outperforms Higher Coverage in Preventative Measles Supplementary Immunization Campaigns

Measles threatens the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of children and there are countries where routine immunization systems miss enough individuals to create the risk of large outbreaks. To help address this threat, measles supplementary immunization activities are time-limited, coordinated campaigns to immunize en masse a target population. Timing campaigns to be concurrent with building outbreak risk is an important consideration, but current programmatic standards focus on campaigns achieving a high coverage of at least 95%. We show that there is a dramatic trade-off between campaign timeliness and coverage. Optimal timing at coverages as low as 50% for areas with weak routine immunization systems is shown to outperform the current standard, which is delayed by as little as 6 months. Measured coverage alone is revealed as a potentially misleading performance metric.

Modeling the Cost of Vaccinating a Measles Zero-Dose Child in Zambia Using Three Vaccination Strategies

Countries with moderate to high measles-containing vaccine coverage face challenges in reaching the remaining measles zero-dose children. There is growing interest in targeted vaccination activities to reach these children. We developed a framework for prioritizing districts for targeted measles and rubella supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) for Zambia in 2020, incorporating the use of the WHO's Measles Risk Assessment Tool (MRAT) and serosurveys. This framework was used to build a model comparing the cost of vaccinating one zero-dose child under three vaccination scenarios: standard nationwide SIA, targeted subnational SIA informed by MRAT, and targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and measles seroprevalence data. In the last scenario, measles seroprevalence data are acquired via either a community-based serosurvey, residual blood samples from health facilities, or community-based IgG point-of-contact rapid diagnostic testing. The deterministic model found that the standard nationwide SIA is the least cost-efficient strategy at 13.75 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated. Targeted SIA informed by MRAT was the most cost-efficient at 7.63 USD per zero-dose child, assuming that routine immunization is just as effective as subnational SIA in reaching zero-dose children. Under similar conditions, a targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and seroprevalence data resulted in 8.17-8.35 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated, suggesting that use of seroprevalence to inform SIA planning may not be as cost prohibitive as previously thought. Further refinement to the decision framework incorporating additional data may yield strategies to better target the zero-dose population in a financially feasible manner.

Exploring landscape of measles vaccination coverage: A step towards measles elimination goal in India

INTRODUCTION

Measles remains a critical public health concern causing significant morbidity and mortality globally. Despite the success of measles vaccination programs, challenges persist, particularly in India. This study investigates dose-wise measles vaccination coverage and explores gaps in immunization focusing on zero-dose, one-dose, and two-dose coverage among children aged 24-35 months.

DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

The National Family Health Survey 2019-21 (NFHS-5) served as the data source and the study analyzed information from 43,864 children aged 24-35 months. Sociodemographic variables such as birth order, wealth quintile, gender, social group, religion, residence, mother education, delivery-related factors, and media exposure were considered. Statistical analysis involved weighted estimates, chi-square tests, and multivariate multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

The study revealed that challenges persist in achieving optimal measles vaccination coverage. Analysis by sociodemographic factors highlighted disparities in coverage, with variations in zero dose prevalence across states and districts. The percentage of zero-dose children was significantly higher, with 11.5% of children in India remaining to receive any measles vaccination. Factors influencing vaccine coverage include birth order, age, wealth quintile, social group, religion, residence, maternal education, place of delivery, media exposure, and mode of delivery. The findings from the spatial analysis show the clustering of zero-dose children is high in the northeastern states of India.

DISCUSSION

Measles zero-dose children pose a significant obstacle to achieving elimination goals. Spatial analysis identifies clusters of unvaccinated populations guiding targeted interventions. The study aligns with global initiatives such as the Immunization Agenda 2030 emphasizing equitable vaccine access and discusses how India can tailor its strategies to achieve the goal. Lessons from polio eradication efforts inform strategies for measles elimination, stressing the importance of high-quality data and surveillance. The study underscores the urgency of addressing last-mile measles vaccination gaps in India. Spatially targeted interventions informed by sociodemographic factors can enhance immunization coverage. Achieving measles elimination requires sustained efforts and leveraging lessons from successful vaccination campaigns. The study findings have the potential to contribute to informed decision-making, supporting India's roadmap for the measles and rubella elimination goal.

Estimates of the global burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2019

OBJECTIVES

Many countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) after 2011, following changes in recommended World Health Organization (WHO) vaccination strategies and external support. We evaluated the impact of these introductions.

METHODS

We estimated the country-specific, region-specific, and global Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) incidence during 1996-2019 using mathematical modeling, including routine and campaign vaccination coverage and seroprevalence data.

RESULTS

In 2019, WHO African and Eastern Mediterranean regions had the highest estimated CRS incidence (64 [95% confidence intervals (CI): 24-123] and 27 [95% CI: 4-67] per 100,000 live births respectively), where nearly half of births occur in countries that have introduced RCV. Other regions, where >95% of births occurred in countries that had introduced RCV, had a low estimated CRS incidence (<1 [95% CI: <1 to 8] and <1 [95% CI: <1 to 12] per 100,000 live births in South-East Asia [SEAR] and the Western Pacific [WPR] respectively, and similarly in Europe and the Americas). The estimated number of CRS births globally declined by approximately two-thirds during 2010-2019, from 100,000 (95% CI: 54,000-166,000) to 32,000 (95% CI: 13,000-60,000), representing a 73% reduction since 1996, largely following RCV introductions in WPR and SEAR, where the greatest reductions occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

Further reductions can occur by introducing RCV in remaining countries and maintaining high RCV coverage.

Health effects of routine measles vaccination and supplementary immunisation activities in 14 high-burden countries: a Dynamic Measles Immunization Calculation Engine (DynaMICE) modelling study

BACKGROUND

WHO recommends at least 95% population coverage with two doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV). Most countries worldwide use routine services to offer a first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) and later, a second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2). Many countries worldwide conduct supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs), offering vaccination to all people in a specific age range irrespective of previous vaccination history. We aimed to estimate the relative effects of each dose and delivery route in 14 countries with high measles burden.

METHODS

We used an age-structured compartmental dynamic model, the Dynamic Measles Immunization Calculation Engine (DynaMICE), to assess the effects of different vaccination strategies on measles susceptibility and burden during 2000-20 in 14 countries with high measles incidence (containing 53% of the global birth cohort and 78% of the global measles burden). Country-specific routine MCV1 and MCV2 coverage data during 1980-2020 were obtained from the WHO and UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage database for all modelled countries and SIA data were obtained from the WHO summary of measles and rubella SIAs. We estimated the incremental health effects of different vaccination strategies using prevented cases of measles and deaths from measles and their efficiency using the incremental number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent an additional measles case.

FINDINGS

Compared with no vaccination, MCV1 implementation was estimated to have prevented 824 million cases of measles and 9·6 million deaths from measles, with a median NNV of 1·41 (IQR 1·35-1·44). Adding routine MCV2 to MCV1 was estimated to have prevented 108 million cases and 404 270 deaths, whereas adding SIAs to MCV1 was estimated to have prevented 256 million cases and 4·4 million deaths. Despite larger incremental effects, adding SIAs to MCV1 (median incremental NNV 6·02, 5·30-7·68) showed reduced efficiency compared with adding routine MCV2 (5·41, 4·76-6·11).

INTERPRETATION

Vaccination strategies, including non-selective SIAs, reach a greater proportion of children who are unvaccinated and reduce measles burden more than MCV2 alone, but efficiency is lower because of the wide age range targeted by SIAs. This analysis provides information to help improve the health effects and efficiency of measles vaccination strategies. The interplay between MCV1, MCV2, and SIAs should be considered when planning future measles vaccination strategies.

FUNDING

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Challenges Addressing Inequalities in Measles Vaccine Coverage in Zambia through a Measles-Rubella Supplementary Immunization Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Measles-rubella supplementary immunization activities (MR-SIAs) are conducted to address inequalities in coverage and fill population immunity gaps when routine immunization services fail to reach all children with two doses of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV). We used data from a post-campaign coverage survey in Zambia to measure the proportion of measles zero-dose and under-immunized children who were reached by the 2020 MR-SIA and identified reasons associated with persistent inequalities following the MR-SIA.

METHODS

Children between 9 and 59 months were enrolled in a nationally representative, cross-sectional, multistage stratified cluster survey in October 2021 to estimate vaccination coverage during the November 2020 MR-SIA. Vaccination status was determined by immunization card or through caregivers' recall. MR-SIA coverage and the proportion of measles zero-dose and under-immunized children reached by MR-SIA were estimated. Log-binomial models were used to assess risk factors for missing the MR-SIA dose.

RESULTS

Overall, 4640 children were enrolled in the nationwide coverage survey. Only 68.6% (95% CI: 66.7%, 70.6%) received MCV during the MR-SIA. The MR-SIA provided MCV1 to 4.2% (95% CI: 0.9%, 4.6%) and MCV2 to 6.3% (95% CI: 5.6%, 7.1%) of enrolled children, but 58.1% (95% CI: 59.8%, 62.8%) of children receiving the MR-SIA dose had received at least two prior MCV doses. Furthermore, 27.8% of measles zero-dose children were vaccinated through the MR-SIA. The MR-SIA reduced the proportion of measles zero-dose children from 15.1% (95% CI: 13.6%, 16.7%) to 10.9% (95% CI: 9.7%, 12.3%). Zero-dose and under-immunized children were more likely to miss MR-SIA doses (prevalence ratio (PR): 2.81; 95% CI: 1.80, 4.41 and 2.22; 95% CI: 1.21 and 4.07) compared to fully vaccinated children.

CONCLUSIONS

The MR-SIA reached more under-immunized children with MCV2 than measles zero-dose children with MCV1. However, improvement is needed to reach the remaining measles zero-dose children after SIA. One possible solution to address the inequalities in vaccination is to transition from nationwide non-selective SIAs to more targeted and selective strategies.

Socioecological Challenges of Polio Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Systematic Review

Background

Polio supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) are one of the polio eradication pillars in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) that increased the immunization coverage and made progress towards polio eradication. However, socioecological challenges faced during SIAs contribute to suboptimal campaign quality. The aim of this review is to identify the reported challenges during polio supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) and associated improvement strategies based on the socioecological model (SEM).

Methods

Articles were searched from three databases which were WOS, Scopus, and PubMed. The systemic review identified the primary articles related to SIA that focused on the impact of immunization coverage, challenges, and improvement strategies. The inclusion criteria were open access English articles that were published between 2012 and 2021 and conducted in the Asia region.

Results

There are nine articles described and explained regarding some form of supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) in their findings across Asia region. The majority of studies selected reported on post vaccination coverage and revealed a multifaceted challenge faced during SIAs which are widely diverse range from the microlevel of interpersonal aspects up to the macrolevel of government policy. Upon further analysis, the intervention at community level was the most dominant strategies reported during the SIA program.

Conclusions

An effective SIAs program provides the opportunity to increase the national capacity of the polio immunization program, reducing inequities in service delivery and offering additional public health benefits in controlling polio outbreaks in both endemic and nonendemic countries. Strengthening routine immunization (RI) programmes is also important for the sustainability of SIA's programs. Despite the challenges and hurdles, many Asian countries exhibited great political willingness to boost polio immunization coverage through SIA efforts.

Added value of the measles-rubella supplementary immunization activity in reaching unvaccinated and under-vaccinated children, a cross-sectional study in five Indian districts, 2018-20

INTRODUCTION

Supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) aim to interrupt measles transmission by reaching susceptible children, including children who have not received the recommended two routine doses of MCV before the SIA. However, both strategies may miss the same children if vaccine doses are highly correlated. How well SIAs reach children missed by routine immunization is a key metric in assessing the added value of SIAs.

METHODS

Children aged 9 months to younger than 5 years were enrolled in cross-sectional household serosurveys conducted in five districts in India following the 2017-2019 measles-rubella (MR) SIA. History of measles containing vaccine (MCV) through routine services or SIA was obtained from documents and verbal recall. Receipt of a first or second MCV dose during the SIA was categorized as "added value" of the SIA in reaching un- and under-vaccinated children.

RESULTS

A total of 1,675 children were enrolled in these post-SIA surveys. The percentage of children receiving a 1st or 2nd dose through the SIA ranged from 12.8% in Thiruvananthapuram District to 48.6% in Dibrugarh District. Although the number of zero-dose children prior to the SIA was small in most sites, the proportion reached by the SIA ranged from 45.8% in Thiruvananthapuram District to 94.9% in Dibrugarh District. Fewer than 7% of children remained measles zero-dose after the MR SIA (range: 1.1-6.4%) compared to up to 28% before the SIA (range: 7.3-28.1%).

DISCUSSION

We demonstrated the MR SIA provided considerable added value in terms of measles vaccination coverage, although there was variability across districts due to differences in routine and SIA coverage, and which children were reached by the SIA. Metrics evaluating the added value of an SIA can help to inform the design of vaccination strategies to better reach zero-dose or undervaccinated children.

Impact of disruptions to routine vaccination programs, quantifying burden of measles, and mapping targeted supplementary immunization activities

Measles is a highly transmissible disease that requires high levels of vaccination coverage for control and elimination. Areas that are unable to achieve and maintain high coverage levels are at risk for measles outbreaks resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. Public health emergencies, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, pose a threat to the functioning of health systems by disrupting immunization services which can derail measles vaccination efforts. Efforts to bridge coverage gaps in immunization include the rapid return to fully functioning services as well as deploying supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), which are additional vaccination campaigns intended to catch-up children who have missed routine services. However, SIAs, which to date tend to be national efforts, can be difficult to mobilize quickly, resource-intensive, and even more challenging to deploy during a public health crisis. By mapping expected burden of measles, more effective SIAs that are setting-specific and resource-efficient can be planned and mobilized. Using a spatial transmission model of measles dynamics, we projected and estimated the expected burden of national and local measles outbreaks in Zambia with the current COVID-19 pandemic as a framework to inform disruptions to routine vaccination. We characterize the impact of disruptions to routine immunization services on measles incidence, map expected case burden, and explore SIA strategies to mitigate measles outbreaks. We find that disruptions lasting six months or longer as well as having low MCV1 coverage prior to disruptions resulted in an observable increase of measles cases across provinces. Targeting provinces at higher risk of measles outbreaks for SIAs is an effective strategy to curb measles virus incidence following disruptions to routine immunization services.

Strengthening vaccination delivery system resilience in the context of protracted humanitarian crisis: a realist-informed systematic review

BACKGROUND

Childhood vaccination is among the most effective public health interventions available for the prevention of communicable disease, but coverage in many humanitarian settings is sub-optimal. This systematic review critically evaluated peer-review and grey literature evidence on the effectiveness of system-level interventions for improving vaccination coverage in protracted crises, focusing on how they work, and for whom, to better inform preparedness and response for future crises.

METHODS

Realist-informed systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature. Keyword-structured searches were performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE and Global Health, CINAHL, the Cochrane Collaboration and WHOLIS, and grey literature searches performed through the websites of UNICEF, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) and Technical Network for Strengthening Immunization Services. Results were independently double-screened for inclusion on title and abstract, and full text. Data were extracted using a pre-developed template, capturing information on the operating contexts in which interventions were implemented, intervention mechanisms, and vaccination-related outcomes. Study quality was assessed using the MMAT tool. Findings were narratively synthesised.

RESULTS

50 studies were included, most describing interventions applied in conflict or near-post conflict settings in sub-Saharan Africa, and complex humanitarian emergencies. Vaccination campaigns were the most commonly addressed adaptive mechanism (n = 17). Almost all campaigns operated using multi-modal approaches combining service delivery through multiple pathways (fixed and roving), health worker recruitment and training and community engagement to address both vaccination supply and demand. Creation of collaterals through service integration showed generally positive evidence of impact on routine vaccination uptake by bringing services closer to target populations and leveraging trust that had already been built with communities. Robust community engagement emerged as a key unifying mechanism for outcome improvement across almost all of the intervention classes, in building awareness and trust among crisis-affected populations. Some potentially transformative mechanisms for strengthening resilience in vaccination delivery were identified, but evidence for these remains limited.

CONCLUSION

A number of interventions to support adaptations to routine immunisation delivery in the face of protracted crisis are identifiable, as are key unifying mechanisms (multi-level community engagement) apparently irrespective of context, but evidence remains piecemeal. Adapting these approaches for local system resilience-building remains a key challenge.

Feasibility of measles and rubella vaccination programmes for disease elimination: a modelling study

Background

Marked reductions in the incidence of measles and rubella have been observed since the widespread use of the measles and rubella vaccines. Although no global goal for measles eradication has been established, all six WHO regions have set measles elimination targets. However, a gap remains between current control levels and elimination targets, as shown by large measles outbreaks between 2017 and 2019. We aimed to model the potential for measles and rubella elimination globally to inform a WHO report to the 73rd World Health Assembly on the feasibility of measles and rubella eradication.

Methods

In this study, we modelled the probability of measles and rubella elimination between 2020 and 2100 under different vaccination scenarios in 93 countries of interest. We evaluated measles and rubella burden and elimination across two national transmission models each (Dynamic Measles Immunisation Calculation Engine [DynaMICE], Pennsylvania State University [PSU], Johns Hopkins University, and Public Health England models), and one subnational measles transmission model (Institute for Disease Modeling model). The vaccination scenarios included a so-called business as usual approach, which continues present vaccination coverage, and an intensified investment approach, which increases coverage into the future. The annual numbers of infections projected by each model, country, and vaccination scenario were used to explore if, when, and for how long the infections would be below a threshold for elimination.

Findings

The intensified investment scenario led to large reductions in measles and rubella incidence and burden. Rubella elimination is likely to be achievable in all countries and measles elimination is likely in some countries, but not all. The PSU and DynaMICE national measles models estimated that by 2050, the probability of elimination would exceed 75% in 14 (16%) and 36 (39%) of 93 modelled countries, respectively. The subnational model of measles transmission highlighted inequity in routine coverage as a likely driver of the continuance of endemic measles transmission in a subset of countries.

Interpretation

To reach regional elimination goals, it will be necessary to innovate vaccination strategies and technologies that increase spatial equity of routine vaccination, in addition to investing in existing surveillance and outbreak response programmes.

Funding

WHO, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Vaccine equity in low and middle income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence to date has shown that inequality in health, and vaccination coverage in particular, can have ramifications to wider society. However, whilst individual studies have sought to characterise these heterogeneities in immunisation coverage at national level, few have taken a broad and quantitative view of the contributing factors to heterogeneity in immunisation coverage and impact, i.e. the number of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years averted. This systematic review aims to highlight these geographic, demographic, and sociodemographic characteristics through a qualitative and quantitative approach, vital to prioritise and optimise vaccination policies.

METHODS

A systematic review of two databases (PubMed and Web of Science) was undertaken using search terms and keywords to identify studies examining factors on immunisation inequality and heterogeneity in vaccination coverage. Inclusion criteria were applied independently by two researchers. Studies including data on key characteristics of interest were further analysed through a meta-analysis to produce a pooled estimate of the risk ratio using a random effects model for that characteristic.

RESULTS

One hundred and eight studies were included in this review. We found that inequalities in wealth, education, and geographic access can affect vaccine impact and vaccination dropout. We estimated those living in rural areas were not significantly different in terms of full vaccination status compared to urban areas but noted considerable heterogeneity between countries. We found that females were 3% (95%CI[1%, 5%]) less likely to be fully vaccinated than males. Additionally, we estimated that children whose mothers had no formal education were 28% (95%CI[18%,47%]) less likely to be fully vaccinated than those whose mother had primary level, or above, education. Finally, we found that individuals in the poorest wealth quintile were 27% (95%CI [16%,37%]) less likely to be fully vaccinated than those in the richest.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a nuanced picture of inequality in vaccination coverage and access with wealth disparity dominating, and likely driving, other disparities. This review highlights the complex landscape of inequity and further need to design vaccination strategies targeting missed subgroups to improve and recover vaccination coverage following the COVID-19 pandemic.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Prospero, CRD42021261927.

Prevalence, geographical distribution and factors associated with pentavalent vaccine zero dose status among children in Sindh, Pakistan: analysis of data from the 2017 and 2018 birth cohorts enrolled in the provincial electronic immunisation registry

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the prevalence of zero dose children (who have not received any dose of pentavalent (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, Haemophilus influenzae type B and hepatitis B) vaccine by their first birthday) among those who interacted with the immunisation system in Sindh, Pakistan along with their sociodemographic characteristics and risk factors.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

We conducted a descriptive analysis of child-level longitudinal immunisation records of 1 467 975 0-23 months children from the Sindh's Zindagi Mehfooz (Safe Life) Electronic Immunisation Registry (ZM-EIR), for the birth cohorts of 2017 and 2018.

SETTING

Sindh province, Pakistan which has a population of 47.9 million people and an annual birth cohort of 1.7 million.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was zero dose status among enrolled children. Logistic regression was performed to identify the risk factors associated with the zero dose status.

RESULTS

Out of 1 467 975 children enrolled in the ZM-EIR in Sindh, 10.6% (154 881/1 467 975) were zero dose. There were sharp inequities across the 27 districts. Zero dose children had a lower proportion of hospital births (28.5% vs 34.0%; difference 5.5 percentage points (pp) (95% CI 5.26 to 5.74); p<0.001) and higher prevalence from slums (49.5% vs 42.3%; difference 7.2 pp (95% CI 6.93 to 7.46); p<0.001), compared with non-zero dose children. Children residing in urban compared with rural areas were at a higher risk (relative risk (RR): 1.20; p<0.001; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.22), while children with educated compared with uneducated mothers were at a lower risk of being zero dose (RR: 0.47-0.96; p<0.001; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite interacting with the immunisation system, 1 out of 10 children enrolled in the ZM-EIR in Sindh were zero dose. It is crucial to monitor the prevalence of zero dose children and investigate their characteristics and risk factors to effectively reach and follow-up with them.

Measles immunity gap among reproductive-age women participating in a simulated HIV vaccine efficacy trial in Zambia

Measles is a vaccine-preventable viral disease whose vaccination coverage remains low in Zambia, where the target group for vaccination is children aged 9 to 18 months. In addition to inadequate measles vaccination coverage among children, few studies address potential resultant immunity gaps among adults. We analyzed data from a simulated HIV vaccine efficacy trial (SiVET) conducted from 2015–2017 among adult Zambian women of childbearing age to determine measles antibody seroprevalence before and after vaccination with the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. We used MMR vaccine as a substitute for an experimental HIV vaccine as part of a simulation exercise to prepare for an HIV vaccine efficacy trial. We found that 75% of women had measles antibodies prior to receiving MMR, which increased to 98% after vaccination. In contrast, mumps and rubella antibody prevalence was high before (93% and 97%, respectively) and after (99% and 100%, respectively) vaccination. The low baseline measles seropositivity suggests an immunity gap among women of childbearing age. We recommend that measles vaccination programs target women of childbearing age, who can pass antibodies on to neonates. Moreover, administering the MMR vaccine to clinical trial candidates could prevent measles, mumps or rubella-related adverse events during actual trials.

Diagnostic accuracy of dried blood spots for serology of vaccine-preventable diseases: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Venous serum and plasma are optimal specimens for serological testing but may be logistically infeasible. Dried blood spots (DBS) are a feasible alternative, provided results are adequately sensitive and specific. We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of DBS to measure IgG and IgM antibodies for vaccine-preventable diseases and compare test validity of DBS with venous blood.

AREAS COVERED

In October 2020, we searched seven databases for peer-reviewed studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of DBS specimens compared with serum in detecting antibodies to VPDs in humans. We extracted data and assessed risk of bias in all included studies. We calculated sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals for each index-reference test comparison. We narratively synthesized the identified evidence on diagnostic accuracy and blood collection and processing methods for DBS. Studies on measles and rubella IgG and IgM were the most frequently identified and reported generally high sensitivity and specificity.

EXPERT OPINION

Lack of standardization in collection, storage, and testing methods limited systematic comparison across studies. Our findings indicate a need for additional validation studies on the diagnostic accuracy of DBS to expand their use in serological surveillance. We recommend practical considerations to improve standardized reporting for DBS validation studies.

Using geospatial models to map zero-dose children: factors associated with zero-dose vaccination status before and after a mass measles and rubella vaccination campaign in Southern province, Zambia

INTRODUCTION

Despite gains in global coverage of childhood vaccines, many children remain undervaccinated. Although mass vaccination campaigns are commonly conducted to reach these children their effectiveness is unclear. We evaluated the effectiveness of a mass vaccination campaign in reaching zero-dose children.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study in 10 health centre catchment areas in Southern province, Zambia in November 2020. About 2 months before a national mass measles and rubella vaccination campaign conducted by the Ministry of Health, we used aerial satellite maps to identify built structures. These structures were visited and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) and measles zero-dose children were identified (children who had not received any DTP or measles-containing vaccines, respectively). After the campaign, households where measles zero-dose children were previously identified were targeted for mop-up vaccination and to assess if these children were vaccinated during the campaign. A Bayesian geospatial model was used to identify factors associated with zero-dose status and measles zero-dose children being reached during the campaign. We also produced fine-scale zero-dose prevalence maps and identified optimal locations for additional vaccination sites.

RESULTS

Before the vaccination campaign, 17.3% of children under 9 months were DTP zero-dose and 4.3% of children 9-60 months were measles zero-dose. Of the 461 measles zero-dose children identified before the vaccination campaign, 338 (73.3%) were vaccinated during the campaign and 118 (25.6%) were reached by a targeted mop-up activity. The presence of other children in the household, younger age, greater travel time to health facilities and living between health facility catchment areas were associated with zero-dose status. Mapping zero-dose prevalence revealed substantial heterogeneity within and between catchment areas. Several potential locations were identified for additional vaccination sites.

CONCLUSION

Fine-scale variation in zero-dose prevalence and the impact of accessibility to healthcare facilities on vaccination coverage were identified. Geospatial modelling can aid targeted vaccination activities.

Effect of evidence updates on key determinants of measles vaccination impact: a DynaMICE modelling study in ten high-burden countries

BACKGROUND

Model-based estimates of measles burden and the impact of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) are crucial for global health priority setting. Recently, evidence from systematic reviews and database analyses have improved our understanding of key determinants of MCV impact. We explore how representations of these determinants affect model-based estimation of vaccination impact in ten countries with the highest measles burden.

METHODS

Using Dynamic Measles Immunisation Calculation Engine (DynaMICE), we modelled the effect of evidence updates for five determinants of MCV impact: case-fatality risk, contact patterns, age-dependent vaccine efficacy, the delivery of supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) to zero-dose children, and the basic reproduction number. We assessed the incremental vaccination impact of the first (MCV1) and second (MCV2) doses of routine immunisation and SIAs, using metrics of total vaccine-averted cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 2000-2050. We also conducted a scenario capturing the effect of COVID-19 related disruptions on measles burden and vaccination impact.

RESULTS

Incorporated with the updated data sources, DynaMICE projected 253 million measles cases, 3.8 million deaths and 233 million DALYs incurred over 2000-2050 in the ten high-burden countries when MCV1, MCV2, and SIA doses were implemented. Compared to no vaccination, MCV1 contributed to 66% reduction in cumulative measles cases, while MCV2 and SIAs reduced this further to 90%. Among the updated determinants, shifting from fixed to linearly-varying vaccine efficacy by age and from static to time-varying case-fatality risks had the biggest effect on MCV impact. While varying the basic reproduction number showed a limited effect, updates on the other four determinants together resulted in an overall reduction of vaccination impact by 0.58%, 26.2%, and 26.7% for cases, deaths, and DALYs averted, respectively. COVID-19 related disruptions to measles vaccination are not likely to change the influence of these determinants on MCV impact, but may lead to a 3% increase in cases over 2000-2050.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating updated evidence particularly on vaccine efficacy and case-fatality risk reduces estimates of vaccination impact moderately, but its overall impact remains considerable. High MCV coverage through both routine immunisation and SIAs remains essential for achieving and maintaining low incidence in high measles burden settings.

How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?

Background

Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination.

Methods

We describe the methods implemented by the VIMC to estimate impact by calendar year, birth year and year of vaccination (YoV). The calendar and birth year methods estimate impact in a particular year and over the lifetime of a particular birth cohort, respectively. The YoV method estimates the impact of a particular year’s vaccination activities through the use of impact ratios which have no stratification and stratification by activity type and/or birth cohort. Furthermore, we detail an impact extrapolation (IE) method for use between coverage scenarios. We compare the methods, focusing on YoV for hepatitis B, measles and yellow fever.

Results

We find that the YoV methods estimate similar impact with routine vaccinations but have greater yearly variation when campaigns occur with the birth cohort stratification. The IE performs well for the YoV methods, providing a time-efficient mechanism for updates to impact estimates.

Conclusions

These methods provide a robust set of approaches to quantify vaccination impact; however it is vital that the area of impact estimation continues to develop in order to capture the full effect of immunisation.

Coverage and factors associated with receiving campaign polio vaccines in an urban population in Guinea-Bissau

BACKGROUND

Polio eradication campaigns are intended to complement routine immunization. Studies addressing factors associated with campaign coverage are warranted to identify children missed by campaigns.

METHODS

Bandim Health Project runs demographic surveillance with registration of routine immunization and campaign participation data in urban Guinea-Bissau. We assessed coverage and factors associated with receiving campaign polio vaccines in children aged 0-35 months in two polio eradication campaigns conducted in 2017 and 2018 using univariate and multivariate regression models.

RESULTS

Campaign coverage reached 84% in 2017 and 88% in 2018. We found lower coverage among children of young and not formally educated mothers in univariate analyses; Children <9 months and Fula children had lower campaign coverage in both univariate and multivariate analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

To increase campaign coverage in urban Guinea-Bissau attention may be directed at informing young mothers, mothers of young children, mothers without formal education, and the Fula ethnic group about campaigns.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries

Background

Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic.

Methods

We used two to three models per infection to estimate the health impact of 50% reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 and delay of campaign vaccination from 2020 to 2021 for measles vaccination in Bangladesh, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Sudan, for meningococcal A vaccination in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, and for yellow fever vaccination in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Nigeria. Our counterfactual comparative scenario was sustaining immunisation services at coverage projections made prior to COVID-19 (i.e. without any disruption).

Results

Reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 without catch-up vaccination may lead to an increase in measles and yellow fever disease burden in the modelled countries. Delaying planned campaigns in Ethiopia and Nigeria by a year may significantly increase the risk of measles outbreaks (both countries did complete their supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) planned for 2020). For yellow fever vaccination, delay in campaigns leads to a potential disease burden rise of >1 death per 100,000 people per year until the campaigns are implemented. For meningococcal A vaccination, short-term disruptions in 2020 are unlikely to have a significant impact due to the persistence of direct and indirect benefits from past introductory campaigns of the 1- to 29-year-old population, bolstered by inclusion of the vaccine into the routine immunisation schedule accompanied by further catch-up campaigns.

Conclusions

The impact of COVID-19-related disruption to vaccination programs varies between infections and countries. Planning and implementation of campaigns should consider country and infection-specific epidemiological factors and local immunity gaps worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic when prioritising vaccines and strategies for catch-up vaccination.

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

National COVID-19 vaccination plan: using artificial spatial intelligence to overcome challenges in Brazil

This article explores the use of spatial artificial intelligence to estimate the resources needed to implement Brazil's COVID-19 immu nization campaign. Using secondary data, we conducted a cross-sectional ecological study adop ting a time-series design. The unit of analysis was Brazil's primary care centers (PCCs). A four-step analysis was performed to estimate the popula tion in PCC catchment areas using artificial in telligence algorithms and satellite imagery. We also assessed internet access in each PCC and con ducted a space-time cluster analysis of trends in cases of SARS linked to COVID-19 at municipal level. Around 18% of Brazil's elderly population live more than 4 kilometer from a vaccination point. A total of 4,790 municipalities showed an upward trend in SARS cases. The number of PCCs located more than 5 kilometer from cell towers was largest in the North and Northeast regions. Innovative stra tegies are needed to address the challenges posed by the implementation of the country's National COVID-19 Vaccination Plan. The use of spatial artificial intelligence-based methodologies can help improve the country's COVID-19 response.

Measles, mumps, rubella prevention: how can we do better?

INTRODUCTION

Measles, mumps, and rubella incidence decreased drastically following vaccination programs' implementation. However, measles and mumps' resurgence was recently reported, outbreaks still occur, and challenges remain to control these diseases.

AREAS COVERED

This qualitative narrative review provides an objective appraisal of the literature regarding current challenges in controlling measles, mumps, rubella infections, and interventions to address them.

EXPERT OPINION

While vaccines against measles, mumps, and rubella (including trivalent vaccines) are widely used and effective, challenges to control these diseases are mainly related to insufficient immunization coverage and changing vaccination needs owing to new global environment (e.g. traveling, migration, population density). By understanding disease transmission peculiarities by setting, initiatives are needed to optimize vaccination policies and increase vaccination coverage, which was further negatively impacted by COVID-19 pandemic. Also, awareness of the potential severity of infections and the role of vaccines should increase. Reminder systems, vaccination of disadvantaged, high-risk and difficult-to-reach populations, accessibility of vaccination, healthcare infrastructure, and vaccination services management should improve. Outbreak preparedness should be strengthened, including implementation of high-quality surveillance systems to monitor epidemiology. While the main focus should be on these public health initiatives to increase vaccination coverage, slightly more benefits could come from evolution of current vaccines.

Nigeria experience on the use of polio assets for the 2017/18 measles vaccination campaign follow-up

BACKGROUND

The global polio eradication initiative has made giant stride by achieving a 99% reduction in Wild poliovirus (WPV) cases, with Nigeria on the verge of being declared polio-free following over 36 months without a WPV. The initiative has provided multiple resources, assets and lessons learnt that could be transitioned to other public health challenges, including improving the quality and vaccination coverage of measles campaigns in order to reduce the incidences of measles in Nigeria. We documented the polio legacy and assets used to support the national measles campaign in 2017/2018.

METHODS

We documented the integration of the measles campaign coordination with the Polio Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) at national and state levels for planning and implementing the measles SIA. Specific polio strategies and assets, such as the EOC incident command framework and facilities, human resource surge capacity, polio GIS resource These strategies were adapted and adopted for the MVC implementation overcome challenges and improve vaccination coverage. We evaluated the performance through a set process and outcome indicators.

RESULTS

All the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory used the structure and resources in Nigeria and provided counterpart financing for the MVC 2017/ 2018. The 11 polio high-risk states deployed the use of GIS for microplanning process, while daily call-in data were tracked in 99.7% of the LGAs and 70,846 reports were submitted real-time by supervisors using Open data kit (ODK). The national coverage achieved was 87.5% by the post-campaign survey with 65% of states reporting higher coverage in 2018 compared to 2015.

CONCLUSION

Polio eradication assets and lessons learned can be applied to measles elimination efforts as the eradication and elimination efforts have similar strategies and programme implementation infrastructure needs. Leveraging these strategies and resources to support MVC planning and implementation resulted in more realistic planning, improved accountability and availability of human and fiscal resources. This approach may have resulted in better MVC outcomes and contributed to Nigeria's efforts in measles control and elimination.

Sero-survey of measles virus antibodies among symptomatic children attending Abuja Teaching Hospital, Nigeria

Background: Nigeria is one of the countries with a high prevalence of measles outbreak in children under 5 years old, despite a history of vaccination. This study aims to determine the prevalence of anti-measles virus IgM and IgG among children under 5 years attending the University of Abuja Teaching Hospital (UATH), Gwagwalada, FCT Abuja, Nigeria.

Materials and methods: Whole blood was collected, centrifuged, and serum anti-IgM and anti-IgG against measles virus was analysed using ELISA. Sociodemographic variables and vaccination history of subjects were obtained by interview-based questionnaires.

Results: The overall anti-Measles virus IgG and IgM seroprevalences were 29.2% and 14.6%, respectively. The prevalence of measles IgG was significantly associated with the parent’s employment status (X²=11.67, p=0.008). However, the prevalence of measles virus IgM was significantly associated with children’s age (X²=16.62, p=0.002), parents’ employment status and children’s vaccination status (X² =7.72, p=0.02).

Conclusion: A majority of study participants were not immunised against measles, and a significant number of participants had serological evidence of acute measles virus infection. There is a need for more concerted and massive measles vaccination of children.

Characterization of immunization secondary analyses using demographic and health surveys (DHS) and multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS), 2006-2018

BACKGROUND

Infant immunization coverage worldwide has plateaued at about 85%. Using existing survey data to conduct analyses beyond estimating coverage may help immunization programmes better tailor strategies to reach un- and under-immunized children. The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS), routinely conducted in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), collect immunization data, yet vaccination coverage is often the only indicator reported and used. We conducted a review of published immunization-related analyses to characterize and quantify immunization secondary analyses done using DHS and MICS databases.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of the literature, of immunization-related secondary analyses from DHS or MICS published between 2006 and August 2018. We searched 15 electronic databases without language restrictions. For the articles included, relevant information was extracted and analyzed to summarize the characteristics of immunization-related secondary analyses. Results are presented following the PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

Among 1411 papers identified, 115 met our eligibility criteria; additionally, one article was supplemented by the Pan American Health Organization. The majority were published since 2012 (77.6%), and most (68.9%) had a first or corresponding author affiliated with institutions in high-income countries (as opposed to LMICs where these surveys are conducted). The median delay between survey implementation and publication of the secondary analysis was 5.4 years, with papers with authors affiliated to institutions in LMIC having a longer median publication delay (p < 0.001). Over 80% of the published analyses looked at factors associated with a specific vaccine or with full immunization. Quality proxies, such as reporting percent of immunization data from cards vs recall; occurrence and handling of missing data; whether survey analyses were weighted; and listing of potential biases or limitations of the original survey or analyses, were infrequently mentioned.

CONCLUSION

Our review suggests that more needs to be done to increase the increase the utilization of existing DHS and MICS datasets and improve the quality of the analyses to inform immunization programmes. This would include increasing the proportion of analyses done in LMICs, reducing the time lag between survey implementation and publication of additional analyses, and including more qualitative information about the survey in the publications to better interpret the results.

The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region.

METHODS

Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020.

RESULTS

In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8-54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19-54), 46% (30-59), and 54% (43-64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25-56), 54% (43-63), and 67% (59-72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives.

CONCLUSION

While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya.

Application of the Geographic Information System (GIS) in immunisation service delivery; its use in the 2017/2018 measles vaccination campaign in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

As global effort is made towards measles elimination, the use of innovative technology to enhance planning for the campaign has become critical. GIS technology has been applied to track polio vaccination activities in Nigeria with encouraging outcomes. Despite numerous measles vaccination campaigns after the first catch up campaign in 2005, sub-optimal outcomes of previous measles supplemental immunization activities necessitated the use of innovative ideas to achieve better outcomes especially when planning for the 2017/2018 measles vaccination campaign. This led to the application of the use of the GIS technology for the Northern states in 2017/2018 campaign. This study is a report of what was achieved with the use of the GIS in the 2017/2018 measles vaccination campaign in Nigeria.

METHODS

GIS generated ward maps were used for the microplanning processes for the 2017/2018 measles vaccination campaign. These ward maps had estimates of the target population by settlements, the number and location of vaccination posts ensuring that a vaccination post is sited within one-kilometer radius of a settlement, and the number of teams needed to support the vaccination campaign as well as the catchment area and daily implementation plans. The ward microplans were verified by checking for accuracy and consistency of the target population, settlements, number of teams, vaccination posts and daily implementation work plans using a standard checklist. The ward maps were deployed into use for the measles vaccination campaign after the state team driven validation and verification by the National team (Government and Partners) RESULTS: The Northern states that applied the GIS technology had a closer operational target population to that on the verified microplan than those of the non-GIS technology states. Greater than 90% of the ward maps had all that is expected in the maps - i.e settlements, target populations, and vaccination posts captured, except Kaduna, Katsina and Adamawa states. Of all enumeration areas sampled during the post-campaign survey in states with GIS ward maps, none had a zero-vaccination coverage of the surveyed children, with the exception of one in Borno state that had security issues. In the post campaign coverage survey, the percentage of responses that gave vaccination post being too far as a reason for non-vaccination of children in the Northern zones that used GIS generated ward maps was less than half the rate seen in the southern zones where the GIS microplanning was not used.

CONCLUSION

The use of GIS-generated wards maps improved the quality of ward micro plans and optimized the placement of vaccination posts, resulting in a significant reduction in zero-dose clusters found during the post campaign coverage survey.

Using data to improve outcomes of supplemental immunisation activities: 2017/2018 Nigeria measles vaccination campaign

BACKGROUND

Despite the enormous resources committed to the implementation of supplemental immunisation activities in Nigeria, achieving the required coverage (post-campaign survey) to halt the transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases has continued to seem like an impossibility. A vast volume of data is generated and transmitted during mass vaccination campaigns, but this administrative data does not always culminate into improved coverage. The absence of data-informed guidance from stakeholders with long years of experience in planning and implementing mass vaccination campaigns has impeded achieving 95% coverage in measles campaigns in Nigeria. This study reviews the use of data to guide the implementation of the 2017/2018 measles vaccination campaign in Nigeria.

METHODS

A central coordinating body was formed at the national level with the same replicated in every state. Tools were developed to measure the performance of the different phases and activities required for the implementation of a mass vaccination campaign as recommended in the international guidelines. Stakeholders were engaged to help ensure that feedback provided by the national measles technical coordinating committee was implemented at the lower level.

RESULTS

Monitoring and analysis of daily data submission caused a proper spread of senior supervisors, vaccination posts location during the campaign and helped identify areas targeted for mop-up. Although the verification of states' microplan increased the operational target population by 11.2%, the process aided the distribution of resources as appropriate. Maps showing the likely areas that needed additional effort to achieve required coverage with recommendation on the necessary approach to be deployed were transmitted to the states implementing the campaign.

CONCLUSION

The improvement in the use of data to guide implementation of the Nigeria 2017/2018 measles vaccination campaign caused an increase in the number of states that achieved higher coverage in the post-campaign coverage survey.

Proportion of children aged 9-59 months reached by the 2017 measles supplementary immunization activity among the children with or without history of measles vaccination in Lilongwe district, Malawi

Background

The measles Supplementary Immunization Activity (SIA) was implemented in June, 2017 to close immunity gaps by providing an additional opportunity to vaccinate children aged between 9 months and up to 14 years in Lilongwe District, Malawi. This study was conducted to determine the proportion of eligible children that were reached by the 2017 measles SIA among those children with or without history of measles vaccination, and possible reasons for non-vaccination.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey using mixed methods was conducted. Caretakers of children who were eligible for the 2017 measles SIA were sampled from 19 households from each of the 25 clusters (villages) that were randomly selected in Lilongwe District. A child was taken to have been vaccinated if the caretaker was able to explain when and where the child was vaccinated. Eight Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) were conducted with planners and health care workers who were involved in the implementation of the 2017 measles SIA. Modified Poisson regression was used to examine the association between non-vaccination and child, caretaker and household related factors. A thematic analysis of transcripts from KIIs was also conducted to explore health system factors associated with non-vaccination of eligible children in this study.

Results

A total of 476 children and their caretakers were surveyed. The median age of the children was 52.0 months. Overall, 41.2% [95% CI 36.8–45.7] of the children included in the study were not vaccinated during the SIA. Only 59.6% of children with previous measles doses received SIA dose; while 77% of those without previous measles vaccination were reached by the SIA. Low birth order, vaccination history under routine services, low level of education among caretakers, unemployment of the household head, younger household head, provision of insufficient information by health authorities about the SIA were significantly associated with non-vaccination among eligible children during the 2017 measles SIA. Qualitative findings revealed strong beliefs against vaccinations, wrong perceptions about the SIA (from caretakers’ perspectives), poor delivery of health education, logistical and human resource challenges as possible reasons for non-vaccination.

Conclusion

Many children (41%) were left unvaccinated during the SIA and several factors were found to be associated with this finding. The Lilongwe District Health Team should endeavor to optimize routine immunization program; and community mobilization should be intensified as part of SIA activities.

Comparative Distributional Impact of Routine Immunization and Supplementary Immunization Activities in Delivery of Measles Vaccine in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

OBJECTIVES

In many countries, measles disproportionately affects poorer households. To achieve equitable delivery, national immunization programs can use 2 main delivery platforms: routine immunization and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). The objective of this article is to use data concerning measles vaccination coverage delivered via routine and SIA strategies to make inferences about the associated equity impact.

METHODS

We relied on Demographic and Health Survey and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys multi-country survey data to conduct a comparative analysis of routine and SIA measles vaccination status of children by wealth quintile. We estimated the value of the angle, θ, for the ratio of the difference between coverage levels of adjacent wealth quintiles by using the arc-tangent formula. For each country/year observation, we averaged the θ estimates into one summary measurement, defined as the "equity impact number."

RESULTS

Across 20 countries, the equity impact number summarized across wealth quintiles was greater (and hence less equitable) for routine delivery than for SIAs in the survey rounds (years) during, before, and after an SIA about 65% of the time. The equity impact numbers for routine measles vaccination averaged across wealth quintiles were usually greater than for SIA measles vaccination across country-year observations.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis examined how different measles vaccine delivery platforms can affect equity. It can serve to elucidate the impact of immunization and public health programs in terms of comparing horizontal to vertical delivery efforts and in reducing health inequalities in global and country-level decision-making.

Measles and rubella IgG seroprevalence in persons 6 month-35 years of age, Mongolia, 2016

BACKGROUND

In 2015-2016, Mongolia experienced an unexpected large measles outbreak affecting mostly young children and adults. After two nationwide vaccination campaigns, measles transmission declined. To determine if there were any remaining immunity gaps to measles or rubella in the population, a nationally representative serosurvey for measles and rubella antibodies was conducted after the outbreak was over.

METHODS

A nationwide, cross-sectional, stratified, three-stage cluster serosurvey was conducted in November-December 2016. A priori, four regional strata (Ulaanbaatar, Western, Central, and Gobi-Eastern) and five age strata (6 months-23 months, 2-7 years, 8-17 years, 18-30 years, and 31-35 years) were created. Households were visited, members interviewed, and blood specimens were collected from age-appropriate members. Blood specimens were tested for measles immunoglobulin G (IgG) and rubella IgG (Enzygnost® Anti-measles Virus/IgG and Anti-rubella Virus/IgG, Siemens, Healthcare Diagnostics Products, GmbH Marburg, Germany). Factors associated with seropositivity were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 4598 persons aged 6 months to 35 years participating in the serosurvey, 94% were measles IgG positive and 95% were rubella IgG positive. Measles IgG seropositivity was associated with increasing age and higher education. Rubella IgG seropositivity was associated with increasing age, higher education, smaller household size, receipt of MMR in routine immunization, residence outside the Western Region, non-Muslim religious affiliation, and non-Kazakh ethnicity. Muslim Kazakhs living in Western Region had the lowest rubella seroprevalence of all survey participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Nationally, high immunity to both measles and rubella has been achieved among persons 1-35 years of age, which should be sufficient to eliminate both measles and rubella if future birth cohorts have ≥ 95% two dose vaccination coverage. Catch-up vaccination is needed to close immunity gaps found among some subpopulations, particularly Muslim Kazakhs living in Western Region.

Geospatial variation in measles vaccine coverage through routine and campaign strategies in Nigeria: Analysis of recent household surveys

Measles vaccination campaigns are conducted regularly in many low- and middle-income countries to boost measles control efforts and accelerate progress towards elimination. National and sometimes first-level administrative division campaign coverage may be estimated through post-campaign coverage surveys (PCCS). However, these large-area estimates mask significant geographic inequities in coverage at more granular levels. Here, we undertake a geospatial analysis of the Nigeria 2017-18 PCCS data to produce coverage estimates at 1 × 1 km resolution and the district level using binomial spatial regression models built on a suite of geospatial covariates and implemented in a Bayesian framework via the INLA-SPDE approach. We investigate the individual and combined performance of the campaign and routine immunization (RI) by mapping various indicators of coverage for children aged 9-59 months. Additionally, we compare estimated coverage before the campaign at 1 × 1 km and the district level with predicted coverage maps produced using other surveys conducted in 2013 and 2016-17. Coverage during the campaign was generally higher and more homogeneous than RI coverage but geospatial differences in the campaign's reach of previously unvaccinated children are shown. Persistent areas of low coverage highlight the need for improved RI performance. The results can help to guide the conduct of future campaigns, improve vaccination monitoring and measles elimination efforts. Moreover, the approaches used here can be readily extended to other countries.

Field challenges to measles elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

During a measles epidemic, the Ministry of Public Health (MOH) of the Democratic Republic of the Congo conducted supplementary immunization activities (2016-SIA) from August 28-September 3, 2016 throughout Maniema Province. From October 29-November 4, 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières and the MOH conducted a reactive measles vaccination campaign (2016-RVC) targeting children six months to 14 years old in seven health areas with heavy ongoing transmission despite inclusion in the 2016-SIA, and a post-vaccination survey. We report the measles vaccine coverage (VC) and effectiveness (VE) of the 2016-SIA and VC of the 2016-RVC.

METHODS

A cross-sectional VC cluster survey stratified by semi-urban/rural health area and age was conducted. A retrospective cohort analysis of measles reported by the parent/guardian allowed calculation of the cumulative measles incidence according to vaccination status after the 2016-SIA for an estimation of crude and adjusted VE.

RESULTS

In November 2016, 1145 children (6-59 months old) in the semi-urban and 1158 in the rural areas were surveyed. Post-2016-SIA VC (documentation/declaration) was 81.6% (95%CI: 76.5-85.7) in the semi-urban and 91.0% (95%CI: 84.9-94.7) in the rural areas. The reported measles incidence in October among children less than 5 years old was 5.0% for 2016-SIA-vaccinated and 11.2% for 2016-SIA-non-vaccinated in the semi-urban area, and 0.7% for 2016-SIA-vaccinated and 4.0% for 2016-SIA-non-vaccinated in the rural area. Post-2016-SIA VE (adjusted for age, sex) was 53.9% (95%CI: 2.9-78.8) in the semi-urban and 78.7% (95%CI: 0-97.1) in the rural areas. Post 2016-RVC VC (documentation/declaration) was 99.1% (95%CI: 98.2-99.6) in the semi-urban and 98.8% (95%CI: 96.5-99.6) in the rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Although our VE estimates could be underestimated due to misclassification of measles status, the VC and VE point estimates of the 2016-SIA in the semi-urban area appear suboptimal, and in combination, could not limit the epidemic. Further research is needed on vaccination strategies adapted to urban contexts.

Epidemiology and features of the measles course in children during the outbreak of 2018–2019 in the city of Mariupol

In 2017, Ukraine ranked in the top three among European countries in terms of measles incidence, and ranked first in measles growth in 2018. High morbidity, mortality and development of complications make the problem of knowing features of the measles clinical course, timely diagnosis and active prevention highly relevant. The purpose of the research is to study the dynamics of the incidence and clinical features of measles in children during the outbreak of 2018–2019 in the city of Mariupol, Donetsk region. A peculiarity of the measles outbreak in 2018–2019 in Mariupol is prevalence of the disease in preschool children (60.4%), inclu­ding 30.2% – those under one year of age; low vaccination rate: 52.3% of children unvaccinated; only 22.2% of children were vaccinated twice, according to the schedule. In all age groups, a moderately severe measles course prevailed (69.8%). The clinical course of measles in preschool and school age children had definitive features. Thus, Belsky–Filatov–Koplik spots were observed three times more frequently in preschool children than in schoolchildren (63.9% and 23.3%, respectively). Abdominal pain and diarrhea were only observed in children under 6 years of age (30.2%). Skin pigmentation was absent in children under one year of age and was detected in preschool and school-age children (69.8%). Skin sloughing was only observed in schoolchildren (10.4%). Severe disease course occurred in patients of all ages (29.3%), but children aged under one year and preschool children with severe disease were two times more numerous than those of the school age. Among the observed complications, the vast majority were associated with the respiratory organs: pneumonia (38.3%), subcutaneous emphysema (1.7%), bronchitis (53.2%), laryngitis (3.3%), otitis media (5%). No fatalities were observed. The city should form a commitment to immunization, restore public trust in vaccination, using all forms and means of information, and develop a program to implement the vaccination schedule into practice.

Global trends in measles publications

INTRODUCTION

Beginning with the 1960s, this review analyzes trends in publications on measles indexed by the National Library of Medicine from January 1960 to mid-2018. It notes both the growth in numbers of published papers, and the increasing number and proportion of publications, in the current century, of articles on such items as costing, measles elimination, and determinants of coverage.

METHODS

A two-person team extracted from the National Library of Medicine (NLM) homepage all citations on measles beginning in 1960 and continuing through mid-2018. These were then classified both by overall number and by subject matter, with tabular summaries of both by decade and by subject matter. The tabular presentation forms the basis for a discussion of the ten most frequently cited subjects, and publication trends, with a special emphasis on the current century.

RESULTS

As in the past, the most often currently published items have been on coverage and its determinants, measles elimination, outbreak reports, SSPE, and SIAs. The putative relationship between vaccination and autism saw a spurt of articles in the 1990s, rapidly declining after the IOM report rejecting the causative hypothesis.

CONCLUSION

There is a discussion on the sequencing of polio and measles eradication, the former unlikely before 2022, and an examination of likely research priorities as the world moves from measles control to measles eradication. There is a key role for social science in combatting vaccination reticence. The role of technical innovations, such as micropatch vaccination, is discussed.

Using models to shape measles control and elimination strategies in low- and middle-income countries: A review of recent applications

After many decades of vaccination, measles epidemiology varies greatly between and within countries. National immunization programs are therefore encouraged to conduct regular situation analyses and to leverage models to adapt interventions to local needs. Here, we review applications of models to develop locally tailored interventions to support control and elimination efforts. In general, statistical and semi-mechanistic transmission models can be used to synthesize information from vaccination coverage, measles incidence, demographic, and/or serological data, offering a means to estimate the spatial and age-specific distribution of measles susceptibility. These estimates complete the picture provided by vaccination coverage alone, by accounting for natural immunity. Dynamic transmission models can then be used to evaluate the relative impact of candidate interventions for measles control and elimination and the expected future epidemiology. In most countries, models predict substantial numbers of susceptible individuals outside the age range of routine vaccination, which affects outbreak risk and necessitates additional intervention to achieve elimination. More effective use of models to inform both vaccination program planning and evaluation requires the development of training to enhance broader understanding of models and where feasible, building capacity for modelling in-country, pipelines for rapid evaluation of model predictions using surveillance data, and clear protocols for incorporating model results into decision-making.

Impact of mass vaccination campaigns on measles transmission during an outbreak in Guinea, 2017

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the time-dependent measles effective reproduction number (R_t) as an indicator of the impact of three outbreak response vaccination (ORV) campaigns on measles transmission during a nationwide outbreak in Guinea.

METHODS

R_t represents the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a partially immune population during a given time period. Measles R_t was estimated using daily incidence data for 3952 outbreak-associated measles cases in Guinea in 2017 for the time periods prior to, between, and following each of three ORV campaigns using a simple and extensible mathematical model.

RESULTS

R_t was estimated to be above the threshold value of 1 during the initial growth period of the outbreak until the first ORV campaign began on March 13 (R_t = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.55-1.67). It subsequently dropped below 1 and remained <1 through the end of the year (range: 0.71-0.91), although low levels of transmission persisted.

CONCLUSIONS

Reduction in R_t coincided with implementation of the ORV campaigns, indicating success of the campaigns at maintaining measles transmission intensity below epidemic growth levels. However, persistent measles transmission remains an issue in Guinea due to insufficient levels of herd immunity. Estimation of R_t should be further leveraged to help decision makers and field staff understand outbreak progress and the timing and type of vaccination efforts needed to halt transmission.

The use of WhatsApp group messaging in the coordination of measles supplemental immunization activity in Cross Rivers State, Nigeria, 2018

Introduction

Cross Rivers State, in southern Nigeria, conducted measles Supplemental Immunization Activities (SIAs) in 2 phases from 2 -15 March, 2018. The SIAs coordination was led by the State technical coordination committee. A total of 90 supervisors from the national and subnational levels, including consultants were deployed to support the SIAs. The instant messaging service - WhatsApp was utilized to help in the communication and coordination among the State and field teams.

Methods

We reviewed the chat logs from the WhatsApp group exchanges made between 28 February 2018 and 31 March 2018. Thematic content analysis was done.

Results

A total of 653 WhatsApp messages were posted among the 55 group members during the study period, including text messages and media content. Eleven percent of the posts related to monitoring processes and data sharing, while posts related to vaccine logistics and waste management made up about 6% of the total. Overall coordination and deployment was covered in 6% of the posts. Forty percent of the media content showed vaccination service delivery and SIAs launching events or monitoring meetings in various areas. The coordination team used WhatsApp to send reminders to the field staff about data sharing, vaccine and waste management, as well as feedback on coverage and completeness of data sharing. The WhatsApp group discussions did not include most of the logistical and hesitancy challenges documented in the State SIAs technical report.

Conclusion

We recommend focusing group discussions on instant messaging platforms so that they can be used for problem solving and sharing best practices, integrating it with other supervisory processes and tools, as well as providing feedback based on processed data from the field.

Mapping vaccination coverage to explore the effects of delivery mechanisms and inform vaccination strategies

The success of vaccination programs depends largely on the mechanisms used in vaccine delivery. National immunization programs offer childhood vaccines through fixed and outreach services within the health system and often, additional supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) are undertaken to fill gaps and boost coverage. Here, we map predicted coverage at 1 × 1 km spatial resolution in five low- and middle-income countries to identify areas that are under-vaccinated via each delivery method using Demographic and Health Surveys data. We compare estimates of the coverage of the third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP3), which is typically delivered through routine immunization (RI), with those of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) for which SIAs are also undertaken. We find that SIAs have boosted MCV coverage in some places, but not in others, particularly where RI had been deficient, as depicted by DTP coverage. The modelling approaches outlined here can help to guide geographical prioritization and strategy design.

End-user acceptability study of the nanopatch™; a microarray patch (MAP) for child immunization in low and middle-income countries

A promising new delivery technology, the microarray patch (MAPs) consists of an array of small solid-coated or dissolvable needles, up to one mm in length, that administers a dry formulation of a vaccine or pharmaceutical. This study is not a real-life evaluation study but determines the anticipated acceptability of the Nanopatch™, a solid microarray patch device, in Benin, Nepal and Vietnam for vaccine delivery, and identifies factors that could improve the acceptability of the technology to increase measles immunization coverage. This study combined several evaluation methods, including simulation of vaccine administration on children and in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, healthcare workers, community health volunteers, caretakers, and community representatives. A total of 314 people participated in the study. The overall rate of total acceptability of the patch for child immunization was 92.7%. General opinions were very positive, providing clinical studies confirm that MAP administration is demonstrated to be painless, safe and effective for infectious disease prevention. The study participants were asked to consider the best strategy to introduce such vaccine delivery innovation. Firstly, delivery by skilled healthcare workers at the healthcare facilities will be preferred to establish the technology. Following this, administration by selected volunteers and outreach delivery may be possible, though under the supervision of skilled healthcare workers. This study's protocol received approval from the World Health Organization (WHO) Ethical Research Committee (ERC0002813) and the national IRB in Benin, Nepal and Vietnam.