Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study

Isolation and genetic characteristics of Novel H4N1 Avian Influenza viruses in ChongQing, China

BACKGROUND

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) constitute significant zoonotic pathogens encompassing a broad spectrum of subtypes. Notably, the H4 subtype of AIVs has a pronounced ability to shift hosts. The escalating prevalence of the H4 subtype heightens the concern for its zoonotic potential, signaling an urgent need for vigilance.

METHODS

During the period from December 2021 to November 2023, we collected AIV-related environmental samples and assessed them using a comprehensive protocol that included nucleic acid testing, gene sequencing, isolation culture, and resequencing.

RESULTS

In this study, a total of 934 environmental samples were assessed, revealing a remarkably high detection rate (43.66%, 289/662) of AIV in the live poultry market. Notably, the H4N1 subtype AIV (cs2301) was isolated from the live poultry market and its complete genome sequence was successfully determined. Subsequent analysis revealed that cs2301, resulting from a reassortment event between wild and domesticated waterfowl, exhibits multiple mutations and demonstrates potential for host transfer.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research once again demonstrates the significant role of wild and domesticated waterfowl in the reassortment process of avian influenza virus, enriching the research on the H4 subtype of AIV, and emphasizing the importance of proactive monitoring the environment related to avian influenza virus.

Development and application of a triplex real-time PCR assay for the detection of H3, H4, and H5 subtypes of avian influenza virus

Avian influenza virus (AIV) poses a significant threat to the poultry industry and public health. Among the diverse AIV subtypes, H3, H4, and H5 are frequently detected in waterfowl and live poultry markets (LPM). The expeditious and precise identification of these subtypes is imperative in impeding the dissemination of the disease. In this study, we have developed a triplex real-time PCR assay endowed with the capacity to simultaneously discriminate AIV subtypes H3, H4, and H5. This method showcases remarkable specificity, selectively amplifying H3, H4, and H5 AIV subtypes sans any cross-reactivity with other subtypes or common avian pathogens. Furthermore, this method exhibits high sensitivity, with a detection threshold of 2.1 × 102 copies/μL for H3, H4, and H5 AIV subtypes. Additionally, the assay demonstrates reproducibility, as evidenced by intra- and interassay variability, with a coefficient of variation below 1.5%. A total of 338 cloacal swabs were collected from LPM to evaluate the performance of our assay. The obtained results evinced a high level of concordance with the sequencing data. In summary, our study has developed a triplex real-time PCR method that can be employed in laboratory-based testing and surveillance of AIV. This assay holds promise in augmenting our ability to detect and monitor AIV subtypes, thereby facilitating timely interventions and safeguarding both the poultry industry and public health.

Avian influenza virus cross-infections as test case for pandemic preparedness: From epidemiological hazard models to sequence-based early viral warning systems

Pandemic preparedness starts with an early warning system of viruses with a pandemic potential. Based on information collected in a multitude of surveys, hazard models were developed identifying influenza viruses presenting a pandemic threat. Scores are attributed for 10 viral traits by expert panels which identified avian influenza viruses (AIV) belonging to subtypes H7N9 and H5N1 as representing the greatest pandemic risk. In 2013, more than 100 human cases infected with AIV H7N9 were observed in China. Case fatality rate (CFR) was high (27%), but the human-to-human transmission rate was low and by serological evidence H7N9 did not spread widely. Nevertheless, until 2019 more than 1500 H7N9 patients were identified characterized by a high CFR of 39%. Serology demonstrated that mild infections with H7N9 were widespread. In 2003, more than 400 people experienced AIV H7N7 cross-infection causing mainly conjunctivitis during a large poultry epidemic in The Netherlands. Between 1996 and 2019, a total of 881 human infections with avian H5N1 viruses were documented showing a CFR of 52%. Outbreaks were centred on South East Asia and showed close associations with epizootics in poultry. Mutations predisposing to human cross-infections were identified in the haemagglutinin (HA) and the RNA polymerase subunit PB2 of human H7N9 isolates. Human H5N1 isolates showed mutations in the receptor binding domain of HA and transmission in mammals could be obtained by as few as four additional aa changes introduced experimentally. Researchers have defined viral point mutations in HA, PB2 and the nucleoprotein NP that allowed AIV to cross the species barrier to mammals with respect to receptor recognition, RNA replication and escape from innate immunity respectively. Based on this insight a sequence-based early warning system for AIV preadapted to human transmission could be envisioned. Mink farms and live poultry markets are prime targets for such sequencing efforts.

Interpretation of molecular detection of avian influenza A virus in respiratory specimens collected from live bird market workers in Dhaka, Bangladesh: infection or contamination?

OBJECTIVES

Interpreting real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) results for human avian influenza A virus (AIV) detection in contaminated settings like live bird markets (LBMs) without serology or viral culture poses a challenge.

METHODS

During February-March 2012 and November 2012-February 2013, we screened workers at nine LBMs in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to confirm molecular detections of AIV RNA in respiratory specimens with serology. We tested nasopharyngeal (NP) and throat swabs from workers with influenza-like illness (ILI) and NP, throat, and arm swabs from asymptomatic workers for influenza virus by rRT-PCR and sera for seroconversion and antibodies against HPAI A(H5N1) and A(H9N2) viruses.

RESULTS

Among 1273 ILI cases, 34 (2.6%) had A(H5), 56 (4%) had A(H9), and six (0.4%) had both A(H5) and A(H9) detected by rRT-PCR. Of 192 asymptomatic workers, A(H5) was detected in eight (4%) NP and 38 (20%) arm swabs. Of 28 ILI cases with A(H5) or A(H9) detected, none had evidence of seroconversion, but one (3.5%) and 12 (43%) were seropositive for A(H5) and A(H9), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Detection of AIV RNA in respiratory specimens from symptomatic and asymptomatic LBM workers without evidence of seroconversion or virus isolation suggests environmental contamination, emphasizing caution in interpreting rRT-PCR results in high viral load settings.

Phylodynamic approaches to studying avian influenza virus

Avian influenza viruses can cause severe disease in domestic and wild birds and are a pandemic threat. Phylodynamics is the study of how epidemiological, evolutionary, and immunological processes can interact to shape viral phylogenies. This review summarizes how phylodynamic methods have and could contribute to the study of avian influenza viruses. Specifically, we assess how phylodynamics can be used to examine viral spread within and between wild or domestic bird populations at various geographical scales, identify factors associated with virus dispersal, and determine the order and timing of virus lineage movement between geographic regions or poultry production systems. We discuss factors that can complicate the interpretation of phylodynamic results and identify how future methodological developments could contribute to improved control of the virus.

Increased Self-Reported Mental Health Problems Among Asian-Americans During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Database

BACKGROUND

To investigate changes in mental health outcomes among racial groups between 2019 and 2020.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the third through fourth quarters of 2019-2020 longitudinal data from the National Health Interview Survey. Self-reports of diagnosed depression and anxiety disorder were key outcomes. We calculated the percentage of depression and anxiety disorder across baseline sample characteristics. Discrete-time hazard models stratified by race/ethnicity were conducted, with hazard ratios (HRs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and p-values reported.

RESULTS

Of a total 10,415 individuals, 16.3 and 14.1% reported that they were diagnosed with depression and anxiety disorder in 2019, respectively. In the multivariable model, only Asian-Americans experienced a significant increase in the probability of receiving a diagnosis of depression by 104% between 2019 and 2020 (HR 2.04, 95%CI 1.19-3.52; p = 0.010). Also, Asian-Americans had a 97% (HR 1.97, 95%CI 1.23-3.15; p = 0.005) greater probability of being diagnosed with anxiety disorder in 2020 than in the previous year, while Hispanics and Whites had a relatively moderate increase of 40% (HR 1.40, 95%CI 1.01-1.76; p = 0.040) and 11% (HR 1.11, 95%CI 1.03-1.20; p = 0.007), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Asian-Americans experienced a disproportionate increase in mental health conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Discriminatory behaviors against Asian-Americans may be important contributors. The study findings suggest the need for serious actions to address this issue.

Mixed selling of different poultry species facilitates emergence of public-health-threating avian influenza viruses

Live poultry markets (LPMs) are regarded as hubs for avian influenza virus (AIV) transmission in poultry and are a major risk factor in human AIV infections. We performed an AIV surveillance study at a wholesale LPM, where different poultry species were sold in separate stalls, and nine retail LPMs, which received poultry from the wholesale LPM but where different poultry species were sold in one stall, in Guangdong province from 2017 to 2019. A higher AIV isolation rate was observed at the retail LPMs than the wholesale LPM. H9N2 was the dominant AIV subtype and was mainly present in chickens and quails. The genetic diversity of H9N2 viruses was greater at the retail LPMs, where a complex system of two-way transmission between different poultry species had formed. The isolated H9N2 viruses could be classed into four genotypes: G57 and the three novel genotypes, NG164, NG165, and NG166. The H9N2 AIVs isolated from chickens and quails at the wholesale LPM only belonged to the G57 and NG164 genotypes, respectively. However, the G57, NG164, and NG165 genotypes were identified in both chickens and quails at the retail LPMs. We found that the replication and transmission of the NG165 genotype were more adaptive to both poultry and mammalian models than those of its precursor genotype, NG164. Our findings revealed that mixed poultry selling at retail LPMs has increased the genetic diversity of AIVs, which might facilitate the emergence of novel viruses that threaten public health.

Highly Pathogenic H5 Influenza Viruses Isolated between 2016 and 2017 in Vietnamese Live Bird Markets

Routine surveillance in live poultry markets in the northern regions of Vietnam from 2016 to 2017 resulted in the isolation of 27 highly pathogenic avian H5N1 and H5N6 viruses of 3 different clades (2.3.2.1c, 2.3.4.4f, and 2.3.4.4g). Sequence and phylogenetic analysis of these viruses revealed reassortment with various subtypes of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Deep-sequencing identified minor viral subpopulations encoding variants that may affect pathogenicity and sensitivity to antiviral drugs. Interestingly, mice infected with two different clade 2.3.2.1c viruses lost body weight rapidly and succumbed to virus infection, whereas mice infected with clade 2.3.4.4f or 2.3.4.4g viruses experienced non-lethal infections.

Phasing out live poultry market trading policy in China: characteristics of chicken consumption, decision-making behavior, and consumer cluster analysis

With the emergence of avian influenza viruses, many Chinese cities periodically close the live poultry markets to restrict the trade of live chicken. This study investigated customers' decision-making clusters and consumption preferences. Data from 1108 participants were collected in May 2021 in the Jiangsu province using a mixed sampling method. Eight decision-making behaviors were identified using the Exploratory Factor Analysis. Five consumer clusters were identified using K-Means Cluster Analysis. Chi-square tests and pairwise comparisons of multiple sample rates were used to identify the differences in consumption preferences between the consumer clusters. The results show that only the concern of risking an avian influenza virus infection might not effectively change consumer preferences towards live chicken and patronage of wet markets and farms. Product quality, consumer habits and loyalty, limited knowledge and technology, and leisure elements in visiting farms are hindering changes in consumer preferences. Effective policies are needed to help customers to overcome the barriers of buying chilled and frozen chicken.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00003-022-01411-y.

Leveraging machine learning to assess market-level food safety and zoonotic disease risks in China

While many have advocated for widespread closure of Chinese wet and wholesale markets due to numerous zoonotic disease outbreaks (e.g., SARS) and food safety risks, this is impractical due to their central role in China's food system. This first-of-its-kind work offers a data science enabled approach to identify market-level risks. Using a massive, self-constructed dataset of food safety tests, market-level adulteration risk scores are created through machine learning techniques. Analysis shows that provinces with more high-risk markets also have more human cases of zoonotic flu, and specific markets associated with zoonotic disease have higher risk scores. Furthermore, it is shown that high-risk markets have management deficiencies (e.g., illegal wild animal sales), potentially indicating that increased and integrated regulation targeting high-risk markets could mitigate these risks.

Surveillance of avian influenza viruses in live bird markets of Shandong province from 2013 to 2019

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) seriously affect the poultry industry and pose a great threat to humans. Timely surveillance of AIVs is the basis for preparedness of the virus. This study reported the long-term surveillance of AIVs in the live bird market (LBM) of 16 cities in Shandong province from 2013 to 2019. A total of 29,895 samples were obtained and the overall positive rate of AIVs was 9.7%. The H9 was found to be the most predominant subtype in most of the time and contributed most to the monthly positve rate of AIVs as supported by the univariate and multivariate analysis, while H5 and H7 only circulated in some short periods. Then, the whole-genome sequences of 62 representative H9N2 viruses including one human isolate from a 7-year-old boy in were determined and they were genetically similar to each other with the median pairwise sequence identities ranging from 0.96 to 0.98 for all segments. The newly sequenced viruses were most similar to viruses isolated in chickens in mainland China, especially the provinces in Eastern China. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these newly sequenced H9N2 viruses belonged to the same clade for all segments except PB1. Nearly all of these viruses belonged to the G57 genotype which has dominated in China since 2010. Finally, several molecular markers associated with human adaptation, mammalian virulence, and drug resistance were identified in the newly sequenced H9N2 viruses. Overall, the study deepens our understanding of the epidemic and evolution of AIVs and provides a basis for effective control of AIVs in China.

Research and Innovation Opportunities to Improve Epidemiological Knowledge and Control of Environmentally Driven Zoonoses

While zoonotic diseases are defined by transmission processes between animals and humans, for many of these diseases the presence of a contaminated environmental source is the cause of transmission. Most zoonoses depend on complex environmentally driven interactions between humans and animals, which occur along an occupational and recreational environmental continuum, including farming and animal marketing systems, environmental management systems, and community leisure environments. Environmentally driven zoonoses (EDZs) are particularly challenging to diagnose and control as their reservoirs are in the natural environment and thus often escape conventional surveillance systems that rely on host monitoring. Changes in the environment as a result of climate change [1], human population density [2], and intensification of agriculture [3] have been linked to increasing transmission events for this group of infections. As such, there is a recognised need to be able to detect the presence of EDZs in the environment as a means to better anticipate transmission events and improve source attribution investigations. Finally, the recognition that a One Health approach is needed to combat these infections is signalling to governments the need to develop policy that optimises trade-offs across human, animal, and environmental health sectors. In this review, we discuss and critically appraise the main challenges relating to the epidemiology, diagnosis, and control of environmental zoonotic disease. Using a set of exemplar diseases, including avian influenza and antimicrobial resistant pathogens, we explore the epidemiological contexts (risk factors) within which these infections not only impact human health but also contribute to animal health and environmental impacts. We then critically appraise the surveillance challenges of monitoring these infections in the environment and examine the policy trade-offs for a more integrated approach to mitigating their impacts.

Transmission dynamics and optimal control of H7N9 in China

H7N9 avian influenza is a highly pathogenic zoonotic disease. In order to control the disease, many strategies have been adopted in China such as poultry culling, the closure of live poultry markets (LPMs), the vaccination of poultry, and the treatment for humans. Due to the limited resource, it is of paramount significance to achieve the optimal control. In this paper, an epidemic model incorporating the selective culling rate is formulated to investigate the transmission mechanism of H7N9. The threshold dynamics and bifurcation analyses of the model are well investigated. Furthermore, the problem of optimal control is explored in line with Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, with consideration given to the comprehensive measures. The numerical simulations suggest that the vaccination of poultry and the closure of LPMs are the two most economical and effective measures.

A systematic approach to illuminate a new hot spot of avian influenza virus circulation in South Vietnam, 2016-2017

In South Vietnam, live bird markets (LBMs) are key in the value chain of poultry products and spread of avian influenza virus (AIV) although they may not be the sole determinant of AIV prevalence. For this reason, a risk analysis of AIV prevalence was conducted accounting for all value chain factors. A cross-sectional study of poultry flock managers and poultry on backyard farms, commercial (high biosecurity) farms, LBMs and poultry delivery stations (PDSs) in four districts of Vinh Long province was conducted between December 2016 and August 2017. A total of 3597 swab samples were collected from birds from 101 backyard farms, 50 commercial farms, 58 sellers in LBMs and 19 traders in PDSs. Swab samples were submitted for AIV isolation. At the same time a questionnaire was administered to flock managers asking them to provide details of their knowledge, attitude and practices related to avian influenza. Multiple correspondence analysis and a mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression model were developed to identify enterprise and flock manager characteristics that increased the risk of AIV positivity. A total of 274 birds were positive for AIV isolation, returning an estimated true prevalence of 7.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.8%-8.5%]. The odds of a bird being AIV positive if it was from an LBM or PDS were 45 (95% CI: 3.4-590) and 25 (95% CI: 1.4-460), respectively, times higher to the odds of a bird from a commercial poultry farm being AIV positive. The odds of birds being AIV positive for respondents with a mixed (uncertain or inconsistent) level and a low level of knowledge about AI were 5.0 (95% CI: 0.20-130) and 3.5 (95% CI: 0.2-62), respectively, times higher to the odd of birds being positive for respondents with a good knowledge of AI. LBMs and PDSs should receive specific emphasis in AI control programs in Vietnam. Our findings provide evidence to support the hypothesis that incomplete respondent knowledge of AI and AIV spread mechanism were associated with an increased risk of AIV positivity. Delivery of education programs specifically designed for those in each enterprise will assist in this regard. The timing and frequency of delivery of education programs are likely to be important if the turnover of those working in LBMs and PDSs is high.

Pathogen change of avian influenza virus in the live poultry market before and after vaccination of poultry in southern China

BACKGROUND

The fifth wave of H7N9 avian influenza virus caused a large number of human infections and a large number of poultry deaths in China. Since September 2017, mainland China has begun to vaccinate poultry with H5 + H7 avian influenza vaccine. We investigated the avian influenza virus infections in different types of live poultry markets and samples before and after genotype H5 + H7 vaccination in Nanchang, and analyzed the changes of the HA subtypes of AIVs.

METHODS

From 2016 to 2019, we monitored different live poultry markets and collected specimens, using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) technology to detect the nucleic acid of type A avian influenza virus in the samples. The H5, H7 and H9 subtypes of influenza viruses were further classified for the positive results. The χ² test was used to compare the differences in the separation rates of different avian influenza subtypes.

RESULTS

We analyzed 5,196 samples collected before and after vaccination and found that the infection rate of AIV in wholesale market (21.73%) was lower than that in retail market (24.74%) (P < 0.05). Among all the samples, the positive rate of sewage samples (33.90%) was the highest (P < 0.001). After vaccination, the positive rate of H5 and H7 subtypes decreased, and the positive rate of H9 subtype and untypable HA type increased significantly (P < 0.001). The positive rates of H9 subtype in different types of LPMs and different types of samples increased significantly (P < 0.01), and the positive rates of untypable HA type increased significantly in all environmental samples (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Since vaccination, the positive rates of H5 and H7 subtypes have decreased, but the positive rates of H9 subtypes have increased to varying degrees in different testing locations and all samples. This results show that the government should establish more complete measures to achieve long-term control of the avian influenza virus.

Assessing different interventions against Avian Influenza A (H7N9) infection by an epidemiological model

This paper aims at evaluating the effectiveness of different intervention measures against the infection of avian influenza A (H7N9) by using an epidemiological model. The model formulates the intrinsic interactions of domestic poultry (DP), H7N9 virus and humans by ordinary differential equations and couples the essential roles of various interventions (including culling, vaccinating, screening, disinfecting, and reducing contact rate, etc). Qualitative analysis indicates that when the recruiting poultry is virus-free, there is a transmission threshold denoted by basic reproduction number which can determine the invasion of H7N9; and there is always a stable H7N9 endemic in case of persistent import of virus-carrying poultry, under which only complete vaccination or cutting off poultry-to-poultry/human contacts can stop H7N9 transmission. By performing numerical analysis of the model with biological background parameters, the intervention outcomes against H7N9 infection are further quantified. It is found that (1) reducing poultry-human/poultry interaction and per-contact infection probability, as well as culling DP, are highly effective in diminishing the infections of humans and DP; (2) the disease is prevented when larger than (1 − 0.1λ_p) proportion of DP is vaccinated, where λ_p is the DP-to-DP transmission rate; (3) cleaning and disinfecting environment play limited role in reducing the risk of infection; and (4) screening imported poultry is quite important for stopping disease diffusion, but it works little when local epidemic is prevailing. Combing these measures with real situations would be necessary for controlling H7N9 epidemics and reaching one health purpose.

H7N9 Influenza Virus in China

In early 2013, human infections caused by a novel H7N9 avian influenza virus (AIV) were first reported in China; these infections caused severe disease and death. The virus was initially low pathogenic to poultry, enabling it to spread widely in different provinces, especially in live poultry markets. Importantly, the H7N9 low pathogenic AIVs (LPAIVs) evolved into highly pathogenic AIVs (HPAIVs) in the beginning of 2017, causing a greater threat to human health and devastating losses to the poultry industry. Fortunately, nationwide vaccination of chickens with an H5/H7 bivalent inactivated avian influenza vaccine since September 2017 has successfully controlled H7N9 avian influenza infections in poultry and, importantly, has also prevented human infections. In this review, we summarize the biological properties of the H7N9 viruses, specifically their genetic evolution, adaptation, pathogenesis, receptor binding, transmission, drug resistance, and antigenic variation, as well as the prevention and control measures. The information obtained from investigating and managing the H7N9 viruses could improve our ability to understand other novel AIVs and formulate effective measures to control their threat to humans and animals.

Live and Wet Markets: Food Access versus the Risk of Disease Emergence

Emerging zoonotic diseases exert a significant burden on human health and have considerable socioeconomic impact worldwide. In Asia, live animals as well as animal products are commonly sold in informal markets. The interaction of humans, live domestic animals for sale, food products, and wild and scavenging animals, creates a risk for emerging infectious diseases. Such markets have been in the spotlight as sources of zoonotic viruses, for example, avian influenza viruses and coronaviruses, Here, we bring data together on the global impact of live and wet markets on the emergence of zoonotic diseases. We discuss how benefits can be maximized and risks minimized and conclude that current regulations should be implemented or revised, to mitigate the risk of new diseases emerging in the future.

Different intervention strategies toward live poultry markets against avian influenza A (H7N9) virus: Model-based assessment

BACKGROUND

Different interventions targeting live poultry markets (LPMs) are applied in China for controlling avian influenza A (H7N9), including LPM closure and "1110" policy (i.e., daily cleaning, weekly disinfection, monthly rest day, zero poultry stock overnight). However, the interventions' effectiveness has not been comprehensively assessed.

METHODS

Based on the available data (including reported cases, domestic poultry volume, and climate) collected in Guangdong Province between October 2013 and June 2017, we developed a new compartmental model that enabled us to infer H7N9 transmission dynamics. The model incorporated the intrinsic interplay among humans and poultry as well as the impacts of absolute humidity and LPM intervention, in which intervention strategies were parameterized and estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo method.

RESULTS

There were 258 confirmed human H7N9 cases in Guangdong during the study period. If without interventions, the number would reach 646 (95%CI, 575-718) cases. Temporal, seasonal and permanent closures of LPMs can substantially reduce transmission risk, which might respectively reduce human infections by 67.2% (95%CI, 64.3%-70.1%), 75.6% (95%CI, 73.8%-77.5%), 86.6% (95%CI, 85.7-87.6%) in total four epidemic seasons, and 81.9% (95%CI, 78.7%-85.2%), 91.5% (95%CI, 89.9%-93.1%), 99.0% (95%CI, 98.7%-99.3%) in the last two epidemic seasons. Moreover, implementing the "1110" policy from 2014 to 2017 would reduce the cases by 34.1% (95%CI, 20.1%-48.0%), suggesting its limited role in preventing H7N9 transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study quantified the effects of different interventions and execution time toward LPMs for controlling H7N9 transmission. The results highlighted the importance of closing LPMs during epidemic period, and supported permanent closure as a long-term plan.

Association of Biosecurity and Hygiene Practices with Environmental Contamination with Influenza A Viruses in Live Bird Markets, Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, live bird market environments are frequently contaminated with avian influenza viruses. Shop-level biosecurity practices might increase risk for environmental contamination. We sought to determine which shop-level biosecurity practices were associated with environmental contamination. We surveyed 800 poultry shops to describe biosecurity practices and collect environmental samples. Samples from 205 (26%) shops were positive for influenza A viral RNA, 108 (14%) for H9, and 60 (8%) for H5. Shops that slaughtered poultry, kept poultry overnight, remained open without rest days, had uneven muddy floors, held poultry on the floor, and housed sick and healthy poultry together were more frequently positive for influenza A viruses. Reported monthly cleaning seemed protective, but disinfection practices were not otherwise associated with influenza A virus detection. Slaughtering, keeping poultry overnight, weekly rest days, infrastructure, and disinfection practices could be targets for interventions to reduce environmental contamination.

Changes of avian influenza virus subtypes before and after vaccination in live poultry in Nanchang, China from 2016 to 2019

We investigated fluctuations in the detection rates of avian influenza virus (AIV) subtypes H5, H7, and H9 in live bird markets (LBMs) in Nanchang city, Chinese province Jiangxi, before and after the Chinese nationwide AIV vaccination campaign against highly pathogenic (HP) AIV subtype H5 and H7. Samples were tested for nucleic acid of type A avian influenza virus by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction technology. The H5, H7 and H9 subtypes of influenza viruses were further classified for the positive results. Based on the analysis of 2,119 samples collected from February 2016 to December 2019, we found that AIV subtypes H5, H7, H9 showed a seasonal pattern, and the positive rate of avian influenza tended to reach its peak in the colder season. The detection rate of AIV subtypes H5, H7, H9 of chickens (39.26%) was significantly higher than that of ducks (5.78%) and pigeons (4.31%). After vaccination, the positive rates of the H5 subtype (0.27%) and the H7 subtype (0.00%) decreased significantly, while the positive rate of the H9 subtype (29.95%) increased significantly. The H9 subtype has become the dominant subtype detected in live poultry and occupies a dominant position in the live bird market. This study showed that the government of China should establish measures for the long-term control of avian influenza.

Distribution of avian influenza viruses according to environmental surveillance during 2014-2018, China

Background

Recurrent infections of animal hosts with avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have posted a persistent threat. It is very important to understand the avian influenza virus distribution and characteristics in environment associated with poultry and wild bird. The aim of this study was to analyze the geographic and seasonal distributions of AIVs in the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous region (PMA) of China, compare the AIVs prevalence in different collecting sites and sampling types, analyze the diversity of AIVs subtypes in environment.

Methods

A total of 742 005 environmental samples were collected from environmental samples related to poultry and wild birds in different locations in the mainland of China during 2014–2018. Viral RNA was extracted from the environmental samples. Real-time RT-PCR assays for influenza A, H5, H7 and H9 subtypes were performed on all the samples to identify subtypes of influenza virus. The nucleic acid of influenza A-positive samples were inoculated into embryonated chicken eggs for virus isolation. Whole-genome sequencing was then performed on Illumina platform. SPSS software was used to paired t test for the statistical analysis. ArcGIS was used for drawing map. Graphpad Prism was used to make graph.

Results

The nucleic acid positivity rate of influenza A, H5, H7 and H9 subtypes displayed the different characteristics of geographic distribution. The nucleic acid positivity rates of influenza A were particularly high (25.96%–45.51%) in eleven provinces covered the Central, Eastern, Southern, Southwest and Northwest of China. The nucleic acid positivity rates of H5 were significantly high (11.42%–13.79%) in two provinces and one municipality covered the Southwest and Central of China. The nucleic acid positivity rates of H7 were up to 4% in five provinces covered the Eastern and Central of China. The nucleic acid positivity rates of H9 were higher (13.07%–2.07%) in eleven PMA covered the Southern, Eastern, Central, Southwest and Northwest of China. The nucleic acid positivity rate of influenza A, H5, H7 and H9 showed the same seasonality. The highest nucleic acid positivity rates of influenza A, H5, H7, H9 subtypes were detected in December and January and lowest from May to September. Significant higher nucleic acid positivity rate of influenza A, H5, H7 and H9 were detected in samples collected from live poultry markets (LPM) (30.42%, 5.59%, 4.26%, 17.78%) and poultry slaughterhouses (22.96%, 4.2%, 2.08%, 12.63%). Environmental samples that were collected from sewage and chopping boards had significantly higher nucleic acid positivity rates for influenza A (36.58% and 33.1%), H5 (10.22% and 7.29%), H7(4.24% and 5.69%)and H9(21.62% and 18.75%). Multiple subtypes of AIVs including nine hemagglutinin (HA) and seven neuraminidase (NA) subtypes were isolated form the environmental samples. The H5, H7, and H9 subtypes accounted for the majority of AIVs in environment.

Conclusions

In this study, we found the avian influenza viruses characteristics of geographic distribution, seasonality, location, samples types, proved that multiple subtypes of AIVs continuously coexisted in the environment associated with poultry and wild bird, highlighted the need for environmental surveillance in China.

Graphic Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-021-00850-3.

Optimizing the early detection of low pathogenic avian influenza H7N9 virus in live bird markets

In Southeast Asia, surveillance at live bird markets (LBMs) has been identified as crucial for detecting avian influenza viruses (AIV) and reducing the risk of human infections. However, the design of effective surveillance systems in LBMs remains complex given the rapid turn-over of poultry. We developed a deterministic transmission model to provide guidance for optimizing AIV surveillance efforts. The model was calibrated to fit one of the largest LBMs in northern Vietnam at high risk of low pathogenic H7N9 virus introduction from China to identify the surveillance strategy that optimizes H7N9 detection. Results show that (i) using a portable diagnostic device would slightly reduce the number of infected birds leaving the LBM before the first detection, as compared to a laboratory-based diagnostic strategy, (ii) H7N9 detection could become more timely by sampling birds staying overnight, just before new susceptible birds are introduced at the beginning of a working day, and (iii) banning birds staying overnight would represent an effective intervention to reduce the risk of H7N9 spread but would decrease the likelihood of virus detection if introduced. These strategies should receive high priority in Vietnam and other Asian countries at risk of H7N9 introduction.

Avian influenza A (H7N9) virus: from low pathogenic to highly pathogenic

The avian influenza A (H7N9) virus is a zoonotic virus that is closely associated with live poultry markets. It has caused infections in humans in China since 2013. Five waves of the H7N9 influenza epidemic occurred in China between March 2013 and September 2017. H7N9 with low-pathogenicity dominated in the first four waves, whereas highly pathogenic H7N9 influenza emerged in poultry and spread to humans during the fifth wave, causing wide concern. Specialists and officials from China and other countries responded quickly, controlled the epidemic well thus far, and characterized the virus by using new technologies and surveillance tools that were made possible by their preparedness efforts. Here, we review the characteristics of the H7N9 viruses that were identified while controlling the spread of the disease. It was summarized and discussed from the perspectives of molecular epidemiology, clinical features, virulence and pathogenesis, receptor binding, T-cell responses, monoclonal antibody development, vaccine development, and disease burden. These data provide tools for minimizing the future threat of H7N9 and other emerging and re-emerging viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2.

Exploring utility of genomic epidemiology to trace origins of highly pathogenic influenza A/H7N9 in Guangdong

The first highly pathogenic (HP) influenza A/H7N9 was reported in Guangdong in January 2017. To investigate the emergence and spread of HP A/H7N9 in Guangdong province, we sequenced 297 viruses (58 HP A/H7N9, 19 low pathogenic (LP) A/H7N9, and 220 A/H9N2) during 2016–2017. Our analysis showed that during the fifth wave, three A/H7N9 lineages were co-circulating in Guangdong: the local LP Pearl River Delta (PRD) lineage (13%), the newly imported LP Yangtze River Delta (YRD) lineage (23%), and the HP YRD lineage (64%). Previously circulating YRD-lineage LP during the third wave evolved to the YRD-lineage HP A/H7N9 in Guangdong. All YRD-lineage LP detected during the fifth wave most likely originated from newly imported viruses into Guangdong. Genotype comparison of HP A/H7N9 suggests limited outward spread of HP A/H7N9 to other provinces. The distribution of HP A/H7N9 cleavage site variants on live poultry markets differed from that found in humans, suggesting a V1-type cleavage site may facilitate human infections.

The temporal characteristics of the lag-response relationship and related key time points between ambient temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease: A multicity study from mainland China

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have thoroughly elucidated the exposure-response relationship between ambient temperature and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), whereas very little concern has been to the lag-response relationship and related key time points.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to clarify the temporal characteristics of the lag-response relationship between ambient temperature and HFMD and how they may vary spatially.

METHODS

We retrieved the daily time series of meteorological variables and HFMD counts for 143 cities in mainland China between 2009 and 2014. We estimated the city-specific lag-response curve between ambient temperature and HFMD and related key time points by applying common distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Then, we pooled the city-specific estimates by performing a meta-regression with the city-specific characteristics as meta-predictors to explain the potential spatial heterogeneity.

RESULTS

We found a robust lag pattern between temperature and HFMD for different levels of temperatures. The temporal change of risk obtained its maximum value on the current day but dropped sharply thereafter and then rebounded to a secondary peak, which implied the presence of a harvesting effect. By contrast, the estimation of key time points showed substantial heterogeneity, especially at high temperature (the I² statistics ranged from 47% to 80%). With one unit increase in the geographic index, the secondary peak would arrive 0.37 (0.02, 0.71) days later. With one unit increase in the economic index and climatic index, the duration time of the lag-response curve would be lengthened by 0.36 (0.1, 0.62) and 0.92 (0.54, 1.29) days, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our study examined the lag pattern and spatial heterogeneity of the lag-response relationship between temperature and HFMD. Those findings gave us new insights into the complex association and the related mechanisms between weather and HFMD and important information for weather-based disease early warning systems.

The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak from a one health perspective

The severe acute respiratory syndrome cornavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is a new human coronavirus candidate recently detected in China that is now reported in people on inhabited continents. The virus shares a high level of identity with some bat coronaviruses and is recognised as a potentially zoonotic virus. We are utilizing the One Health concept to understand the emergence of the virus, as well as to point to some possible control strategies that might reduce the spread of the virus across the globe; thus, containment of such virus would be possible.

Dominant subtype switch in avian influenza viruses during 2016-2019 in China

We have surveyed avian influenza virus (AIV) genomes from live poultry markets within China since 2014. Here we present a total of 16,091 samples that were collected from May 2016 to February 2019 in 23 provinces and municipalities in China. We identify 2048 AIV-positive samples and perform next generation sequencing. AIV-positive rates (12.73%) from samples had decreased substantially since 2016, compared to that during 2014–2016 (26.90%). Additionally, H9N2 has replaced H5N6 and H7N9 as the dominant AIV subtype in both chickens and ducks. Notably, novel reassortants and variants continually emerged and disseminated in avian populations, including H7N3, H9N9, H9N6 and H5N6 variants. Importantly, almost all of the H9 AIVs and many H7N9 and H6N2 strains prefer human-type receptors, posing an increased risk for human infections. In summary, our nation-wide surveillance highlights substantial changes in the circulation of AIVs since 2016, which greatly impacts the prevention and control of AIVs in China and worldwide.

In this study, the authors present a genomic surveillance of avian influenza genomes sampled from live poultry markets in China. They report that a number of variants have emerged since 2016 that pose an increased risk to humans. They highlight the importance of continuous genome surveillance of circulating influenza strains.

Genetic diversity of the H5N1 viruses in live bird markets, Indonesia

Background

The live bird market (LBM) plays an important role in the dynamic evolution of the avian influenza H5N1 virus.

Objectives

The main objective of this study was to monitor the genetic diversity of the H5N1 viruses in LBMs in Indonesia.

Methods

Therefore, the disease surveillance was conducted in the area of Banten, West Java, Central Java, East Java, and Jakarta Province, Indonesia from 2014 to 2019. Subsequently, the genetic characterization of the H5N1 viruses was performed by sequencing all 8 segments of the viral genome.

Results

As a result, the H5N1 viruses were detected in most of LBMs in both bird' cloacal and environmental samples, in which about 35% of all samples were positive for influenza A and, subsequently, about 52% of these samples were positive for H5 subtyping. Based on the genetic analyses of 14 viruses isolated from LBMs, genetic diversities of the H5N1 viruses were identified including clades 2.1.3 and 2.3.2 as typical predominant groups as well as reassortant viruses between these 2 clades.

Conclusions

As a consequence, zoonotic transmission to humans in the market could be occurred from the exposure of infected birds and/or contaminated environments. Moreover, new virus variants could emerge from the LBM environment. Therefore, improving pandemic preparedness raised great concerns related to the zoonotic aspect of new influenza variants because of its high adaptivity and efficiency for human infection.

New putative animal reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian fauna: A bioinformatic approach

SARS-CoV-2 is a virus belonging to the betacoronavirus family, causing fatal respiratory disease in humans, which became pandemic in 2020. Italy is one of the most affected countries by COVID-19, particularly in the northern regions. Several studies consider COVID-19 a zoonotic disease and, since Italy is the repository of a high biodiversity, SARS-CoV-2 infection in animals can be considered as a reservoir of the virus or favor the spreading between animals and humans. In this work, we analyzed the amino acid sequences of ACE2 protein of the most common domestic and wild animals present in Italy. Among the latter, we focused on ACE2 of the Chiroptera species present in Italy to identify the primary reservoir in this region. First, we reproduced in silico the Chiroptera ACE2/viral spike (S) protein interactions on the human ACE2/SARS-CoV-2 S complex model and identified the critical residues for the binding. In silico molecular docking of ACE2 belonging to Chiroptera vs SARS-CoV-2 S protein pointed to Rhinolophus ferrumequinum as a bat living in Italy, that may be a potential primary reservoir of the virus. On the other hand, a sequence similarity search on ACE2 of domestic and wild animals living in Italy pointed to domestic (horses, cats, cattle and sheep) and wild (European rabbits and grizzly bears) animal species as potential SARS-CoV-2 secondary reservoirs. Molecular docking of ACE2 belonging to these species vs S protein of Bat coronavirus (Bt-CoV/Rp3/2004) suggests that the primary reservoir Rhinolophus ferrumequinum may infect the secondary reservoirs, domestic and worldwide animals living in Italy, determining a specific risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic

There are outstanding evolutionary questions on the recent emergence of human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 including the role of reservoir species, the role of recombination and its time of divergence from animal viruses. We find that the sarbecoviruses-the viral subgenus containing SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2-undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatially structured genetic diversity on a regional scale in China. SARS-CoV-2 itself is not a recombinant of any sarbecoviruses detected to date, and its receptor-binding motif, important for specificity to human ACE2 receptors, appears to be an ancestral trait shared with bat viruses and not one acquired recently via recombination. To employ phylogenetic dating methods, recombinant regions of a 68-genome sarbecovirus alignment were removed with three independent methods. Bayesian evolutionary rate and divergence date estimates were shown to be consistent for these three approaches and for two different prior specifications of evolutionary rates based on HCoV-OC43 and MERS-CoV. Divergence dates between SARS-CoV-2 and the bat sarbecovirus reservoir were estimated as 1948 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 1879-1999), 1969 (95% HPD: 1930-2000) and 1982 (95% HPD: 1948-2009), indicating that the lineage giving rise to SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating unnoticed in bats for decades.

Controlling emerging zoonoses at the animal-human interface

BACKGROUND

For many emerging or re-emerging pathogens, cases in humans arise from a mixture of introductions (via zoonotic spillover from animal reservoirs or geographic spillover from endemic regions) and secondary human-to-human transmission. Interventions aiming to reduce incidence of these infections can be focused on preventing spillover or reducing human-to-human transmission, or sometimes both at once, and typically are governed by resource constraints that require policymakers to make choices. Despite increasing emphasis on using mathematical models to inform disease control policies, little attention has been paid to guiding rational disease control at the animal-human interface.

METHODS

We introduce a modeling framework to analyze the impacts of different disease control policies, focusing on pathogens exhibiting subcritical transmission among humans (i.e. pathogens that cannot establish sustained human-to-human transmission). We quantify the relative effectiveness of measures to reduce spillover (e.g. reducing contact with animal hosts), human-to-human transmission (e.g. case isolation), or both at once (e.g. vaccination), across a range of epidemiological contexts.

RESULTS

We provide guidelines for choosing which mode of control to prioritize in different epidemiological scenarios and considering different levels of resource and relative costs. We contextualize our analysis with current zoonotic pathogens and other subcritical pathogens, such as post-elimination measles, and control policies that have been applied.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work provides a model-based, theoretical foundation to understand and guide policy for subcritical zoonoses, integrating across disciplinary and species boundaries in a manner consistent with One Health principles.

A fatal paediatric case infected with reassortant avian influenza A(H5N6) virus in Eastern China

Avian influenza A(H5N6) keeps evolving, causing outbreaks in birds and sporadic infections in human. Here, we report a fatal paediatric infection caused by a novel reassortant H5N6 virus. The patient was an obese 9-year-old girl. She initiated with fever and cough, then developed pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and respiratory failure. Lower respiratory tract aspirates and anal swabs were serially taken till the patient's death. Viral isolation, genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were conducted. A novel reassortant H5N6 virus was isolated from the patient. Except the PA gene, all other 7 genes of the virus belonged to H5N6 genotype A (S4-like virus). The PA gene was probably obtained from Eurasian waterfowl influenza viruses. The H5N6 virus was consistently detected from the patient's respiratory samples till the 17th day after symptom onset, but not from anal swabs or urine sample by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Significantly elevated (32-fold) serum antibodies to H5N6 virus were observed during the patient's course of disease. Aside from the identified novel reassortant H5N6 viral strain, obesity, delayed confirmation of aetiology and specific antiviral treatment, and prolonged virus shedding could have contributed to the poor clinical outcome.

Spatial and temporal clusters of avian influenza a (H7N9) virus in humans across five epidemics in mainland China: an epidemiological study of laboratory-confirmed cases

Background

Avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first reported in mainland China in 2013, and alarming in 2016–17 due to the surge across a wide geographic area. Our study aimed to identify and explore the spatial and temporal variation across five epidemics to reinforce the epidemic prevention and control.

Methods

We collected spatial and temporal information about all laboratory-confirmed human cases of A (H7N9) virus infection reported in mainland China covering 2013–17 from the open source. The autocorrelation analysis and intensity of cases were used to analyse the spatial cluster while circular distribution method was used to analyse the temporal cluster.

Results

Across the five epidemics, a total of 1553 laboratory-confirmed human cases with A (H7N9) virus were reported in mainland China. The global Moran’s I index values of five epidemic were 0.610, 0.132, 0.308, 0.306, 0.336 respectively, among which the differences were statistically significant. The highest intensity was present in the Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region, and the range enlarged from the east of China to inner provinces and even the west of China across the five epidemics. The temporal clusters of the five epidemics were statistically significant, and the peak period was from the end of January to April with the first and the fifth epidemic later than the mean peak period.

Conclusions

Spatial and temporal clusters of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans are obvious, moreover the regions existing clusters may enlarge across the five epidemics. Yangtze River Delta region and the Pearl River Delta region have the spatial cluster and the peak period is from January to April. The government should facilitate the tangible improvement for the epidemic preparedness according to the characteristics of spatial and temporal clusters of patients with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus.

Geographical variation in the risk of H7N9 human infections in China: implications for risk-based surveillance

The influenza A (H7N9) subtype remains a public health problem in China affecting individuals in contact with live poultry, particularly at live bird markets. Despite enhanced surveillance and biosecurity at LBMs H7N9 viruses are now more widespread in China. This study aims to quantify the temporal relationship between poultry surveillance results and the onset of human H7N9 infections during 2013-2017 and to estimate risk factors associated with geographical risk of H7N9 human infections in counties in Southeast China. Our results suggest that poultry surveillance data can potentially be used as early warning indicators for human H7N9 notifications. Furthermore, we found that human H7N9 incidence at county-level was significantly associated with the presence of wholesale LBMs, the density of retail LBMs, the presence of poultry virological positives, poultry movements from high-risk areas, as well as chicken population density and human population density. The results of this study can influence the current AI H7N9 control program by supporting the integration of poultry surveillance data with human H7N9 notifications as an early warning of the timing and areas at risk for human infection. The findings also highlight areas in China where monitoring of poultry movement and poultry infections could be prioritized.

Live poultry market closure and avian influenza A (H7N9) infection in cities of China, 2013-2017: an ecological study

Background

Previous studies have proven that the closure of live poultry markets (LPMs) was an effective intervention to reduce human risk of avian influenza A (H7N9) infection, but evidence is limited on the impact of scale and duration of LPMs closure on the transmission of H7N9.

Method

Five cities (i.e., Shanghai, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou) with the largest number of H7N9 cases in mainland China from 2013 to 2017 were selected in this study. Data on laboratory-confirmed H7N9 human cases in those five cities were obtained from the Chinese National Influenza Centre. The detailed information of LPMs closure (i.e., area and duration) was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture. We used a generalized linear model with a Poisson link to estimate the effect of LPMs closure, reported as relative risk reduction (RRR). We used classification and regression trees (CARTs) model to select and quantify the dominant factor of H7N9 infection.

Results

All five cities implemented the LPMs closure, and the risk of H7N9 infection decreased significantly after LPMs closure with RRR ranging from 0.80 to 0.93. Respectively, a long-term LPMs closure for 10–13 weeks elicited a sustained and highly significant risk reduction of H7N9 infection (RRR = 0.98). Short-time LPMs closure with 2 weeks in every epidemic did not reduce the risk of H7N9 infection (p > 0.05). Partially closed LPMs in some suburbs contributed only 35% for reduction rate (RRR = 0.35). Shenzhen implemented partial closure for first 3 epidemics (p > 0.05) and all closure in the latest 2 epidemic waves (RRR = 0.64).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that LPMs all closure in whole city can be a highly effective measure comparing with partial closure (i.e. only urban closure, suburb and rural remain open). Extend the duration of closure and consider permanently closing the LPMs will help improve the control effect. The effect of LPMs closure seems greater than that of meteorology on H7N9 transmission.

Effectiveness of Live Poultry Market Interventions on Human Infection with Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China

Various interventions for live poultry markets (LPMs) have emerged to control outbreaks of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in mainland China since March 2013. We assessed the effectiveness of various LPM interventions in reducing transmission of H7N9 virus across 5 annual waves during 2013-2018, especially in the final wave. With the exception of waves 1 and 4, various LPM interventions reduced daily incidence rates significantly across waves. Four LPM interventions led to a mean reduction of 34%-98% in the daily number of infections in wave 5. Of these, permanent closure provided the most effective reduction in human infection with H7N9 virus, followed by long-period, short-period, and recursive closures in wave 5. The effectiveness of various LPM interventions changed with the type of intervention across epidemics. Permanent LPM closure should be considered to maintain sufficient effectiveness of interventions and prevent the recurrence of H7N9 epidemics.

A brief history of bird flu

In 1918, a strain of influenza A virus caused a human pandemic resulting in the deaths of 50 million people. A century later, with the advent of sequencing technology and corresponding phylogenetic methods, we know much more about the origins, evolution and epidemiology of influenza epidemics. Here we review the history of avian influenza viruses through the lens of their genetic makeup: from their relationship to human pandemic viruses, starting with the 1918 H1N1 strain, through to the highly pathogenic epidemics in birds and zoonoses up to 2018. We describe the genesis of novel influenza A virus strains by reassortment and evolution in wild and domestic bird populations, as well as the role of wild bird migration in their long-range spread. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and the zoonotic incursions of avian H5 and H7 viruses into humans over the last couple of decades are also described. The threat of a new avian influenza virus causing a human pandemic is still present today, although control in domestic avian populations can minimize the risk to human health.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Avian Influenza Human Infections at the Human-Animal Interface

Background

Avian influenza A viruses (AIVs) are among the most concerning emerging and re-emerging pathogens because of the potential risk for causing an influenza pandemic with catastrophic impact. The recent increase in domestic animals and poultry worldwide was followed by an increase of human AIV outbreaks reported.

Methods

We reviewed the epidemiology of human infections with AIV from the literature including reports from the World Health Organization, extracting information on virus subtype, time, location, age, sex, outcome, and exposure.

Results

We described the characteristics of more than 2500 laboratory-confirmed human infections with AIVs. Human infections with H5N1 and H7N9 were more frequently reported than other subtypes. Risk of death was highest among reported cases infected with H5N1, H5N6, H7N9, and H10N8 infections. Older people and males tended to have a lower risk of infection with most AIV subtypes, except for H7N9. Visiting live poultry markets was mostly reported by H7N9, H5N6, and H10N8 cases, while exposure to sick or dead bird was mostly reported by H5N1, H7N2, H7N3, H7N4, H7N7, and H10N7 cases.

Conclusions

Understanding the profile of human cases of different AIV subtypes would guide control strategies. Continued monitoring of human infections with AIVs is essential for pandemic preparedness.

Control of avian influenza in China: Strategies and lessons

In recent decades, multiple subtypes (i.e. H9N2, H5N1 and H7N9) of avian influenza virus (AIV) have become widespread in China, which has caused enormous economic losses and posed considerable threats to public health. In this review, with the aim to provide insights into and guidelines for the control of AIV spread in China and globally in the future, we analysed the reasons why AIV has persisted in China based on socio-economic features, including poultry biosecurity, live bird markets, live bird transportation, wild birds, poultry waterfowl, poultry density, poultry population and infected birds. We also described the present status of the AIV subtypes H9, H5 and H7 in China to elucidate the effectiveness of the strategies currently employed in China (i.e. culling, mass vaccination and biosecurity improvement) to control the disease based on a literature review and our unpublished surveillance data collected over a 12-year period from 2007 to 2018. We then summarized the lessons to be learned from the control experience in China, including whether culling of infected birds is of limited value for disease control and whether improved biosecurity is a better option than culling and vaccination for the long-term control of AIV, and when the vaccine strain should be updated.

Interventions in Live Poultry Markets for the Control of Avian Influenza: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

This review aimed to provide constructive suggestions for the control and management of avian influenza through quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the impact of different live poultry market (LPM) interventions.

METHODS

Both English and Chinese language databases were searched for articles that were published on or before 9 November 2018. After extraction and assessment of the included literature, Stata14.0 was applied to perform a meta-analysis to explore the impacts of LPM interventions.

RESULTS

A total of 19 studies were identified. In total, 224 human, 3550 poultry, and 13 773 environment samples were collected before the intervention; 181 people, 4519 poultry, and 9562 environments were sampled after LPM interventions. Avian influenza virus (AIV) detection rates in the LPM environment (odds ratio [OR], 0.393; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.262-0.589) and the incidence of AIV infection (OR, 0.045; 95% CI, 0.025-0.079) were significantly lower after LPM interventions, while interventions were not significantly effective in reducing AIV detection in poultry samples (OR, 0.803; 95% CI, 0.403-1.597).

CONCLUSIONS

LPM interventions can reduce AIV human infections and the detection rate of AIV in market environments.

Research progress on human infection with avian influenza H7N9

Since the first case of novel H7N9 infection was reported, China has experienced five epidemics of H7N9. During the fifth wave, a highly pathogenic H7N9 strain emerged. Meanwhile, the H7N9 virus continues to accumulate mutations, and its affinity for the human respiratory epithelial sialic acid 2–6 receptor has increased. Therefore, a pandemic is still possible. In the past 6 years, we have accumulated rich experience in dealing with H7N9, especially in terms of virus tracing, epidemiological research, key site mutation monitoring, critical disease mechanisms, clinical treatment, and vaccine development. In the research fields above, significant progress has been made to effectively control the spread of the epidemic and reduce the fatality rate. To fully document the research progress concerning H7N9, we reviewed the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of H7N9, the key gene mutations of the virus, and H7N9 vaccine, thus providing a scientific basis for further monitoring and prevention of H7N9 influenza epidemics.

Genetic diversity of influenza A viruses circulating in pigs between winter and summer in a Minnesota live animal market

There has been little surveillance of influenza A viruses (IAVs) circulating in swine at live animal markets, particularly in the United States. To address this gap, we conducted active surveillance of IAVs in pigs, the air, and the environment during a summer and winter season in a live animal market in St. Paul, Minnesota, that had been epidemiologically associated with swine-origin influenza cases in humans previously. High rates of IAV were detected by PCR in swine lungs and oral fluids during both summer and winter seasons. Rates of IAV detection by PCR in the air were similar during summer and winter, although rates of successful virus isolation in the air were lower during summer than in winter (26% and 67%, respectively). H3N2 was the most prevalent subtype in both seasons, followed by H1N2. Genetically diverse viruses with multiple gene constellations were isolated from both winter and summer, with a total of 19 distinct genotypes identified. Comparative phylogenetic analysis of all eight segments of 40 virus isolates from summer and 122 isolates from winter revealed that the summer and winter isolates were genetically distinct, indicating IAVs are not maintained in the market, but rather are re-introduced, likely from commercial swine. These findings highlight the extent of IAV genetic diversity circulating in swine in live animal markets, even during summer months, and the ongoing risk to humans.

Avian Influenza-Factors Affecting Consumers' Purchase Intentions toward Poultry Products

Recently, continuing outbreaks of avian influenza in China have not only caused great loss to the agricultural sector but also brought fear and distrust to consumers, seriously undermining consumer confidence in chicken products. We investigated consumers' purchase intentions during avian influenza outbreaks by examining a regionally representative sample of 330 consumers in Guangzhou. With respect to 7 kinds of attributes, the ordered logit analysis indicated that possible health threat and uncertainty of the origin of poultry products may cause concern among consumers and cause them to avoid purchasing chicken products. Media reports have a great influence on consumers' intentions to purchase chicken products during avian influenza outbreaks. Overall, this study suggests establishing an effective mechanism of public knowledge (of chicken products' safety and quality) enhancement, in order to curb misleading media reports during avian influenza outbreaks.

A Comparative Analysis of Risk Perception and Coping Behaviors among Chinese Poultry Farmers Regarding Human and Poultry Infection with Avian Influenza

Poultry farmers face a dual risk when mutant avian influenza (AI) virus exhibits zoonotic characteristics. A/H5N1 and A/H7N9 are two principal strains of the AI virus that have captured public attention in recent years, as they have both been reported and can infect poultry and humans, respectively. Previous studies have focused either on poultry farmers’ risk perception and biosecurity preventive behaviors (BPBs) against A/H5N1 infection with poultry, or on their risk perception and personal protective behaviors (PPBs) against human infection with A/H7N9, even though these two strains often appear simultaneously. To bridge this research gap, a survey (N = 426) was conducted in the Chinese provinces of Jiangsu and Anhui to assess risk perception and coping behaviors adopted by poultry farmers facing the dual risk of these two viral strains. Paired sample t-tests revealed that farmers’ perceived risk of poultry infection with A/H5N1 was significantly higher than their perceived risk of human infection with A/H7N9, and that their reported frequency of BPBs against A/H5N1 was significantly higher than the frequency of PPBs against A/H7N9. Moreover, farmers were less familiar with AI infection in human beings compared to that in poultry, but they felt a higher sense of control regarding human AI infection. Multivariate regression analyses showed that farm size and perceived risks of both human and poultry infection with AI were positively associated with BPBs and PPBs. The findings of this research suggest that a campaign to spread knowledge about human AI infection among poultry farmers is needed, and that a policy incentive to encourage large-scale poultry farming could be effective in improving implementation of BPBs and PPBs.

Effect of closure of live poultry markets in China on prevention and control of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza: a case study of four cities in Jiangsu Province

As of August 2017, China had encountered five seasonal epidemics of H7N9 avian influenza. To prevent people from contracting H7N9 avian influenza, most cities closed live poultry markets (LPMs) to cut off the source of H7N9 virus. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of LPMs closure on reducing zoonotic transmission of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and to make specific recommendations on the duration of closing the LPMs. Results show that the closure of LPMs can effectively control the spread of H7N9 avian influenza and reduce the incidence of human infection with H7N9. If cases of H7N9 avian influenza continue to occur, LPMs should close for at least 3-4 weeks in susceptible areas to control the spread of infection.

Reassortments among Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Viruses Circulating in Indonesia, 2015-2016

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) viruses have been circulating since 2003 in Indonesia, with major impacts on poultry health, severe economic losses, and 168 fatal laboratory-confirmed human cases. We performed phylogenetic analysis on 39 full-genome H5N1 virus samples collected during outbreaks among poultry in 2015-2016 in West Java and compared them with recently published sequences from Indonesia. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the hemagglutinin gene of all samples belonged to 2 genetic groups in clade 2.3.2.1c. We also observed these groups for the neuraminidase, nucleoprotein, polymerase, and polymerase basic 1 genes. Matrix, nonstructural protein, and polymerase basic 2 genes of some HPAI were most closely related to clade 2.1.3 instead of clade 2.3.2.1c, and a polymerase basic 2 gene was most closely related to Eurasian low pathogenicity avian influenza. Our results detected a total of 13 reassortment types among HPAI in Indonesia, mostly in backyard chickens in Indramayu.