The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting

Sex and Gender Differences in Alzheimer's Disease: Genetic, Hormonal, and Inflammation Impacts

Two-thirds of Americans with Alzheimer's disease are women, indicating a profound variance between the sexes. Variances exist between the sexes in the age and intensity of the presentation, cognitive deficits, neuroinflammatory factors, structural and functional brain changes, as well as psychosocial and cultural circumstances. Herein, we summarize the existing evidence for sexual dimorphism and present the available evidence for these distinctions. Understanding these complexities is critical to developing personalized interventions for the prevention, care, and treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

The impact of the English national health inequalities strategy on inequalities in mortality at age 65: a time-trend analysis

BACKGROUND

During the 1997-2010 Labour government, several policies were implemented to narrow health inequalities as part of a national health inequalities strategy. Many of these policies are likely to have had a disproportionately large impact on people aged 65 and over. We aimed to understand the association between the health inequalities strategy period and inequalities in mortality at age 65-69.

METHODS

We use population at risk and mortality data covering 1991-2019 to calculate mortality rate at age 65-69 at the Local Authority level. We use the 2019 Index of Multiple Deprivation to examine geographical inequalities. We employ segmented linear regression models with marginal spline terms for the strategy period and interact these with an indicator of deprivation to understand how inequalities changed before, during and after the strategy. The reporting of this study adheres to STROBE guidelines.

RESULTS

Mortality rates in each deprivation quintile improved continuously throughout the period of study. Prior to the programme (1991-9) there was no significant change in absolute inequalities. However, during the strategy (2000-10) there was a significant decrease in absolute inequalities of -9.66 (-17.48 to -1.84). The period following the strategy (2011-19) was associated with a significant increase in absolute inequalities of 12.84 (6.60 to 19.08). Our results were robust to a range of sensitivity tests.

CONCLUSION

The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a significant reduction in absolute inequality in mortality age 65-69. Future strategies to address inequalities in ageing populations may benefit from adopting a similar approach.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in life expectancy and lifespan variation in Chile

Background

Socioeconomic disparities in life expectancy are well-documented in various contexts, including Chile. However, there is a lack of research examining trends in life expectancy inequalities and lifespan variation over time. Addressing these gaps can provide crucial insights into the dynamics of health inequalities.

Methods

This study utilizes data from census records, population surveys, and death certificates to compare the life expectancy and the lifespan variation at age 26 of individuals according to their rank in the distribution of years of education within their own birth cohort. The analysis spans three periods (1991, 2002, and 2017) and focuses on two educational groups: individuals in the first (lowest) quintile and tenth (highest) decile of educational attainment. Changes in life expectancy are disaggregated by major causes of death to elucidate their contributions to overall trends.

Results

Consistent with existing literature, our findings confirm that individuals with lower education levels experience lower life expectancy and higher lifespan variation compared to their more educated counterparts. Notably, by 2017, life expectancy for individuals in the lowest quintile of education has caught up with that of the top decile in 1991, albeit with contrasting trends between genders. Among women, the gap has reduced, while it has increased for males. Moreover, lifespan variation decreased (increased) over time for individuals in the tenth decile (first quintile). The leading causes of death that explain the increase in life expectancy in women and men in the tenth decile as well as women in the first quintile are cardiovascular, cancer, respiratory and digestive diseases. In the case of males in the first quintile, few gains have been made in life expectancy resulting from cancer and a negative contribution is associated with digestive conditions.

Conclusions

This study underscores persistent socioeconomic disparities in life expectancy in Chile, emphasizing the importance of ongoing monitoring of health inequalities across different demographic segments. The gender-specific and educational gradient trends highlight areas for targeted interventions aimed at reducing health disparities and improving overall population health outcomes. Further research is warranted to delve into specific causes of death driving life expectancy differentials and to inform evidence-based policy interventions.

Projections of future life expectancy in China up to 2035: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

To plan social and health services, future life expectancy projections are needed. The aim of this study was to forecast the future life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces.

METHODS

Following the same approach as the Global Burden of Disease Study, we used the largest compiled epidemiological and demographic datasets to estimate age-specific mortality and evaluate population data from 1990 to 2019. A total of 21 life expectancy forecasting models were combined by a probabilistic Bayesian model to forecast the life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces in 2035.

FINDINGS

The projected life expectancy at birth in mainland China in 2035 is 81·3 years (95% credible interval 79·2-85·0), and there is a high probability that the national goals of improving life expectancy will be achieved (79 years in 2030, and over 80 years in 2035). At the provincial level, women in Beijing have the highest projected life expectancy in 2035 with an 81% probability of reaching 90 years, followed by Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, which all have more than a 50% probability of surpassing 90 years. Men in Shanghai are projected to have the highest life expectancy at birth in 2035, with a 77% probability of life expectancy being over 83 years, the highest provincial life expectancy in mainland China in 2019. The projected gains in life expectancy are mainly derived from older individuals (aged ≥65 years), except those in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Qinghai (for men), in which the main contributions come from younger (0-29 years) or middle-aged (30-64 years) individuals.

INTERPRETATION

Life expectancy in mainland China and its provinces has a high probability of continuing to increase through to 2035. Adequate policy planning of social and health services will be needed.

FUNDING

China National Natural Science Foundation and Social Science Fund of Jiangsu Province.

Comparison of Bayesian Spatiotemporal Models for Small-Area Life Expectancy: A Simulation Study

The purpose of this study was to assess the precision, uncertainty, and normality of small-area life expectancy estimates calculated using Bayesian spatiotemporal models. We hypothesized 6 scenarios in which all 247 districts of South Korea had the same year-specific female population of 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000, and 25,000 individuals during the study period (2013-2017). We generated 1,000 hypothetical data sets for each scenario and calculated district-year life expectancies. The precision and uncertainty of life expectancy estimates were compared between 2 Bayesian spatiotemporal models and the traditional method and Bayesian spatial models. We examined the normality of the life expectancy distributions generated by each method and investigated an optimal cutoff value for the comparisons. The Bayesian spatiotemporal models produced precise life expectancy estimates. However, the 95% uncertainty interval contained the true value with a probability of less than 95%. The Bayesian spatiotemporal models violated the normality assumption in scenarios with small population sizes. Therefore, life expectancy comparisons should be conducted using a cutoff value that minimizes false-positive and false-negative rates. We propose 0.8 as a cutoff value for determining the statistical significance of the difference in life expectancy.

Impact of cash transfer programs on birth and child growth outcomes: systematic review

To investigate the impact of cash transfer (CTs) on birth outcomes, including birth weight, low birth weight and prematurity, as well as child physical growth were included, as assessed by anthropometric indices in children under five years of age. Searching was performed using the PubMed/Medline, Embase, LILACS, Cochrane Library, Scopus and Web of Science databases. Quantitative observational, experimental and quasi-experimental. Eleven studies were included in the review. The majority (81.8%) were carried out in low-and middle-income countries and most involved conditional CTs (63.6%). Four were clinical trials and seven were observational studies. Conditional CTs were found to be associated with a reduction in height-for-age (-0.14; 95%CI -0.27, -0.02); (OR 0.85; 95%CI 0.77-0.94); (OR = 0.44; 95%CI 0.19-0.98), a significantly reduced chance of low weight-for-age (OR = 0.16; 95%CI -0.11-0.43), low weight-for-height (OR = -0.68; 95%CI -1.14, -0.21), and low weight-for-age (OR = 0.27; 95%CI 0.10; 0.71). Unconditional CTs were associated with reduced birth weight (RR = 0.71; 95%CI 0.63-0.81; p < 0.0001) and preterm births (RR = 0.76; 95%CI 0.69-0.84; p < 0.0001). Conditional CTs can positively influence birth outcomes and child growth.

Five-year mortality after traumatic central cord syndrome in Wales

Aims

Traumatic central cord syndrome (CCS) typically follows a hyperextension injury and results in motor impairment affecting the upper limbs more than the lower, with occasional sensory impairment and urinary retention. Current evidence on mortality and long-term outcomes is limited. The primary aim of this study was to assess the five-year mortality of CCS, and to determine any difference in mortality between management groups or age.

Methods

Patients aged ≥ 18 years with a traumatic CCS between January 2012 and December 2017 in Wales were identified. Patient demographics and data about injury, management, and outcome were collected. Statistical analysis was performed to assess mortality and between-group differences.

Results

A total of 65 patients were identified (66.2% male (n = 43), mean age 63.9 years (SD 15.9)). At a minimum of five years' follow-up, 32.3% of CCS patients (n = 21) had died, of whom six (9.2%) had died within 31 days of their injury. Overall, 69.2% of patients (n = 45) had been managed conservatively. There was no significant difference in age between conservatively and surgically managed patients (p = 0.062). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed no significant difference in mortality between patients managed conservatively and those managed surgically (p = 0.819). However, there was a significant difference in mortality between the different age groups (< 50 years vs 50 to 70 years vs > 70 years; p = 0.001). At five years' follow-up, 55.6% of the patient group aged > 70 years at time of injury had died (n = 15). Respiratory failure was the most common cause of death (n = 9; 42.9%).

Conclusion

Almost one-third of patients with a traumatic CCS in Wales had died within five years of their injury. The type of management did not significantly affect mortality but their age at the time of injury did. Further work to assess the long-term functional outcomes of surviving patients is needed to generate more reliable prognostic information.

Do poverty and wealth look the same the world over? A comparative study of 12 cities from five high-income countries using street images

Urbanization and inequalities are two of the major policy themes of our time, intersecting in large cities where social and economic inequalities are particularly pronounced. Large scale street-level images are a source of city-wide visual information and allow for comparative analyses of multiple cities. Computer vision methods based on deep learning applied to street images have been shown to successfully measure inequalities in socioeconomic and environmental features, yet existing work has been within specific geographies and have not looked at how visual environments compare across different cities and countries. In this study, we aim to apply existing methods to understand whether, and to what extent, poor and wealthy groups live in visually similar neighborhoods across cities and countries. We present novel insights on similarity of neighborhoods using street-level images and deep learning methods. We analyzed 7.2 million images from 12 cities in five high-income countries, home to more than 85 million people: Auckland (New Zealand), Sydney (Australia), Toronto and Vancouver (Canada), Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco, and Washington D.C. (United States of America), and London (United Kingdom). Visual features associated with neighborhood disadvantage are more distinct and unique to each city than those associated with affluence. For example, from what is visible from street images, high density poor neighborhoods located near the city center (e.g., in London) are visually distinct from poor suburban neighborhoods characterized by lower density and lower accessibility (e.g., in Atlanta). This suggests that differences between two cities is also driven by historical factors, policies, and local geography. Our results also have implications for image-based measures of inequality in cities especially when trained on data from cities that are visually distinct from target cities. We showed that these are more prone to errors for disadvantaged areas especially when transferring across cities, suggesting more attention needs to be paid to improving methods for capturing heterogeneity in poor environment across cities around the world.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-023-00394-6.

The clinical effectiveness of a falls rapid response service, and sex differences of patients using the service: a cross-sectional study in an English ambulance trust

Background

Falls in older adults are an important issue internationally. They occur from complex interactions between biological, environmental and activity-related factors. As the sexes age differently, there may be sex differences regarding falls. This study aimed to determine the clinical effectiveness of a falls rapid response service (FRRS) in an English ambulance trust and to identify sex differences between patients using the service.

Methods

A cross-sectional study between December 2018 and September 2020. Patients aged ≥ 60 years who had fallen within the study area were included. The FRRS comprised a paramedic and occupational therapist and responded 07:00-19:00, 7 days per week. Anonymised data regarding age, sex and conveyance were collected for all patients attended by the FRRS and standard ambulance crews. Clinical data regarding fall events were collected from consenting patients attended by the FRRS only.

Results

There were 1091 patients attended by the FRRS versus 4269 by standard ambulance crews. Patient characteristics were similar regarding age and sex. The FRRS consistently conveyed fewer patients versus standard ambulance crews (467/1091 (42.8%) v. 3294/4269 (77.1%), p = < 0.01). Clinical data were collected from 426/1091 patients attended by the FRRS. In these patients, women were more likely to reside alone than men (181/259 (69.8%) v. 86/167 (51.4%), p = < 0.01), and less likely to experience a witnessed fall (16.2% v. 26.3%, p = 0.01). Women had a higher degree of comorbidity specific to osteoarthritis and osteoporosis, while men were more likely to report a fear of falling score of 0 (35.3% v. 22.7%, p = < 0.01).

Conclusion

The FRRS is clinically effective regarding falls compared to standard ambulance crews. Sex differences existed between men and women using the FRRS, indicating women are further along the falls trajectory than men. Future research should focus on demonstrating the cost effectiveness of the FRRS and how to better meet the needs of older women who fall.

Spatial Inequities in Life Expectancy in Small Areas of Buenos Aires, Argentina 2015-2017

Studies of life expectancy (LE) in small areas of cities are relatively common in high-income countries but rare in Latin American countries. Small-area estimation methods can help to describe and quantify inequities in LE between neighborhoods and their predictors. Our objective was to analyze the distribution and spatial patterning of LE across small areas of Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (CABA), Argentina, and its association with socioeconomic characteristics. As part of the SALURBAL project, we used georeferenced death certificates in 2015-2017 for CABA, Argentina. We used a spatial Bayesian Poisson model using the TOPALS method to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates. We used life tables to estimate LE at birth. We obtained data on neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics from the 2010 census and analyzed their associations. LE at birth was higher for women (median of across neighborhoods = 81.1 years) compared to men (76.7 years). We found a gap in LE of 9.3 (women) and 14.9 years (men) between areas with the highest and the lowest LE. Better socioeconomic characteristics were associated with higher LE. For example, mean differences in LE at birth in areas with highest versus lowest values of composite SES index were 2.79 years (95% CI: 2.30 to 3.28) in women and 5.61 years (95% CI: 4.98 to 6.24) in men. We found large spatial inequities in LE across neighborhoods of a large city in Latin America, highlighting the importance of place-based policies to address this gap.

Synthesizing the links between secure housing tenure and health for more equitable cities

Millions of households in rich and poor countries alike are at risk of being unwilfully displaced from their homes or the land on which they live (i.e., lack secure tenure), and the urban poor are most vulnerable. Improving housing tenure security may be an intervention to improve housing and environmental conditions and reduce urban health inequalities. Building on stakeholder workshops and a narrative review of the literature, we developed a conceptual model that infers the mechanisms through which more secure housing tenure can improve housing, environmental quality, and health. Empirical studies show that more secure urban housing tenure can boost economic mobility, improve housing and environmental conditions including reduced exposure to pollution, create safer and more resourced communities, and improve physical and mental health. These links are shared across tenure renters and owners and different economic settings. Broader support is needed for context-appropriate policies and actions to improve tenure security as a catalyst for cultivating healthier homes and neighbourhoods and reducing urban health inequalities in cities.

Spatiotemporal trends and ecological determinants of cardiovascular mortality among 2844 counties in mainland China, 2006-2020: a Bayesian modeling study of national mortality registries

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in China. No previous study has reported CVD mortality at county-level, and little was known about the nonmedical ecological factors of CVD mortality at such small scale in mainland China. Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of CVD mortality and examining its nonmedical ecological factors would be of great importance to tailor local public health policies.

METHODS

By using national mortality registration data in China, this study used hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian model to demonstrate spatiotemporal distribution of CVD mortality in 2844 counties during 2006 to 2020 and investigate how nonmedical ecological determinants have affected CVD mortality inequities from the spatial perspectives.

RESULTS

During 2006-2020, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CVD decreased from 284.77 per 100,000 in 2006 to 241.34 per 100,000 in 2020. Among 2844 counties, 1144 (40.22%) were hot spots counties with a higher CVD mortality risk compared to the national average and located mostly in northeast, north central, and westernmost regions; on the contrary, 1551 (54.53%) were cold spots counties and located mostly in south and southeast coastal counties. CVD mortality risk decreased from 2006 to 2020 was larger in counties where CVD mortality rate had been higher in 2006 in most of the counties, vice versa. Nationwide, nighttime light intensity (NTL) was the major influencing factor of CVD mortality, a higher NTL appeared to be negatively associated with a lower CVD mortality, with one unit increase in NTL, and the CVD mortality risk will decrease 11% (relative risk of NTL was estimated as 0.89 with 95% confidence interval of 0.83-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial between-county discrepancies of CVD mortality distribution were observed during past 15 years in mainland China. Nonmedical ecological determinants were estimated to significantly explain the overall and local spatiotemporal patterns of this CVD mortality risk. Targeted considerations are needed to integrate primary care with clinical care through intensifying further strategies to narrow unequally distribution of CVD mortality at local scale. The approach to county-level analysis with small area models has the potential to provide novel insights into Chinese disease-specific mortality burden.

Future trends of life expectancy by education in the Netherlands

Background

National projections of life expectancy are made periodically by statistical offices or actuarial societies in Europe and are widely used, amongst others for reforms of pension systems. However, these projections may not provide a good estimate of the future trends in life expectancy of different social-economic groups. The objective of this study is to provide insight in future trends in life expectancies for low, mid and high educated men and women living in the Netherlands.

Methods

We used a three-layer Li and Lee model with data from neighboring countries to complement Dutch time series.

Results

Our results point at further increases of life expectancy between age 35 and 85 and of remaining life expectancy at age 35 and age 65, for all education groups in the Netherlands. The projected increase in life expectancy is slightly larger among the high educated than among the low educated. Life expectancy of low educated women, particularly between age 35 and 85, shows the smallest projected increase. Our results also suggest that inequalities in life expectancies between high and low educated will be similar or slightly increasing between 2018 and 2048. We see no indication of a decline in inequality between the life expectancy of the low and high educated.

Conclusions

The educational inequalities in life expectancy are expected to persist or slightly increase for both men and women. The persistence and possible increase of inequalities in life expectancy between the educational groups may cause equity concerns of increases in pension age that are equal among all socio-economic groups.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13275-w.

No Geographical Inequalities in Survival for Sarcoma Patients in France: A Reference Networks' Outcome?

The national reference network NETSARC+ provides remote access to specialized diagnosis and the Multidisciplinary Tumour Board (MTB) to improve the management and survival of sarcoma patients in France. The IGéAS research program aims to assess the potential of this innovative organization to address geographical inequalities in cancer management. Using the IGéAS cohort built from the nationwide NETSARC+ database, the individual, clinical, and geographical determinants of the 3-year overall survival of sarcoma patients in France were analyzed. The survival analysis was focused on patients diagnosed in 2013 (n = 2281) to ensure sufficient hindsight to collect patient follow-up. Our study included patients with bone (16.8%), soft-tissue (69%), and visceral (14.2%) sarcomas, with a median age of 61.8 years. The overall survival was not associated with geographical variables after adjustment for individual and clinical factors. The lower survival in precarious population districts [HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.48] in comparison to wealthy metropolitan areas (HR = 1) found in univariable analysis was due to the worst clinical presentation at diagnosis of patients. The place of residence had no impact on sarcoma patients' survival, in the context of the national organization driven by the reference network. Following previous findings, this suggests the ability of this organization to go through geographical barriers usually impeding the optimal management of cancer patients.

Trends and Disparities in Adult Body Mass Index Across the 47 Prefectures of Japan, 1975-2018: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis of National Household Surveys

Background

Among high-income countries, Japan has a low prevalence of obesity, but little is understood about subnational trends and variations in body mass index (BMI), largely owing to the lack of data from representative samples of prefectures. We aimed to examine long-term trends and distributions of adult BMI at the prefecture level in Japan from the late 1970s using a spatiotemporal model.

Methods

We obtained cross-sectional data for 233,988 men and 261,086 women aged 20-79 years from the 44 annual National Health and Nutrition Surveys (NHNS) conducted during 1975-2018. We applied a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to estimate the annual time series of age-standardized and age-specific mean BMI by 20-year age group and sex for each of the 47 prefectures. We assessed socioeconomic inequalities in BMI across prefectures using the concentration index, according to population density.

Results

In men, the age-standardized prefectural mean BMI ranged from 21.7 kg/m² (95% credible interval, 21.6-21.9) to 23.1 kg/m² (22.9-23.4) in 1975 and from 23.5 kg/m² (23.3-23.7) to 24.8 kg/m² (24.6-25.1) in 2018. In women, the age-standardized prefectural mean BMI ranged from 22.0 kg/m² (21.9-22.2) to 23.4 kg/m² (23.2-23.6) in 1975 and from 21.7 kg/m² (21.6-22.0) to 23.5 kg/m² (23.2-23.8) in 2018. Mean BMI was highest in the southernmost prefecture for most of the study period, followed by northeast prefectures. The increase in mean BMI was largest in southwest prefectures, which caught up with northeast prefectures over time. The concentration index was negative, indicating higher BMI in less-populated prefectures. Absolute values of the concentration index were greater in women than in men and increased over time.

Conclusions

There were variations in adult mean BMI across prefectures, and geographic distributions changed over time. Further national and local efforts are needed to address the rising trend in mean BMI, particularly among men in rural prefectures, and socioeconomic inequalities among women. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is useful for reconstructing long-term spatiotemporal trends of mean BMI by integrating small-sized survey samples at the prefecture level in the NHNS.

Synthesizing the links between secure housing tenure and health for more equitable cities

Millions of households in rich and poor countries alike are at risk of being unwilfully displaced from their homes or the land on which they live (i.e., lack secure tenure), and the urban poor are most vulnerable. Improving housing tenure security may be an intervention to improve housing and environmental conditions and reduce urban health inequalities. Building on stakeholder workshops and a narrative review of the literature, we developed a conceptual model that infers the mechanisms through which more secure housing tenure can improve housing, environmental quality, and health. Empirical studies show that more secure urban housing tenure can boost economic mobility, improve housing and environmental conditions including reduced exposure to pollution, create safer and more resourced communities, and improve physical and mental health. These links are shared across tenure renters and owners and different economic settings. Broader support is needed for context-appropriate policies and actions to improve tenure security as a catalyst for cultivating healthier homes and neighbourhoods and reducing urban health inequalities in cities.

Life expectancy and risk of death in 6791 communities in England from 2002 to 2019: high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data

BACKGROUND

High-resolution data for how mortality and longevity have changed in England, UK are scarce. We aimed to estimate trends from 2002 to 2019 in life expectancy and probabilities of death at different ages for all 6791 middle-layer super output areas (MSOAs) in England.

METHODS

We performed a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data from the UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit research database using de-identified data for all deaths in England from 2002 to 2019, with information on age, sex, and MSOA of residence, and population counts by age, sex, and MSOA. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain estimates of age-specific death rates by sharing information across age groups, MSOAs, and years. We used life table methods to calculate life expectancy at birth and probabilities of death in different ages by sex and MSOA.

FINDINGS

In 2002-06 and 2006-10, all but a few (0-1%) MSOAs had a life expectancy increase for female and male sexes. In 2010-14, female life expectancy decreased in 351 (5·2%) of 6791 MSOAs. By 2014-19, the number of MSOAs with declining life expectancy was 1270 (18·7%) for women and 784 (11·5%) for men. The life expectancy increase from 2002 to 2019 was smaller in MSOAs where life expectancy had been lower in 2002 (mostly northern urban MSOAs), and larger in MSOAs where life expectancy had been higher in 2002 (mostly MSOAs in and around London). As a result of these trends, the gap between the first and 99th percentiles of MSOA life expectancy for women increased from 10·7 years (95% credible interval 10·4-10·9) in 2002 to reach 14·2 years (13·9-14·5) in 2019, and for men increased from 11·5 years (11·3-11·7) in 2002 to 13·6 years (13·4-13·9) in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

In the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy declined in increasing numbers of communities in England. To ensure that this trend does not continue or worsen, there is a need for pro-equity economic and social policies, and greater investment in public health and health care throughout the entire country.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Imperial College London, Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and National Institutes of Health Research.

The contributions of public health policies and healthcare quality to gender gap and country differences in life expectancy in the UK

Background

In many high-income countries, life expectancy (LE) has increased, with women outliving men. This gender gap in LE (GGLE) has been explained with biological factors, healthy behaviours, health status, and sociodemographic characteristics, but little attention has been paid to the role of public health policies that include/affect these factors. This study aimed to assess the contributions of avoidable causes of death, as a measure of public health policies and healthcare quality impacts, to the GGLE and its temporal changes in the UK. We also estimated the contributions of avoidable causes of death into the gap in LE between countries in the UK.

Methods

We obtained annual data on underlying causes of death by age and sex from the World Health Organization mortality database for the periods 2001–2003 and 2014–2016. We calculated LE at birth using abridged life tables. We applied Arriaga’s decomposition method to compute the age- and cause-specific contributions into the GGLE in each period and its changes between two periods as well as the cross-country gap in LE in the 2014–2016 period.

Results

Avoidable causes had greater contributions than non-avoidable causes to the GGLE in both periods (62% in 2001–2003 and 54% in 2014–2016) in the UK. Among avoidable causes, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) followed by injuries had the greatest contributions to the GGLE in both periods. On average, the GGLE across the UK narrowed by about 1.0 year between 2001–2003 and 2014–2016 and three avoidable causes of IHD, lung cancer, and injuries accounted for about 0.8 years of this reduction. England & Wales had the greatest LE for both sexes in 2014–2016. Among avoidable causes, injuries in men and lung cancer in women had the largest contributions to the LE advantage in England & Wales compared to Northern Ireland, while drug-related deaths compared to Scotland in both sexes.

Conclusion

With avoidable causes, particularly preventable deaths, substantially contributing to the gender and cross-country gaps in LE, our results suggest the need for behavioural changes by implementing targeted public health programmes, particularly targeting younger men from Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00271-2.

Potential of biomarkers during pharmacological therapy setting for postmenopausal osteoporosis: a systematic review

Background

Biochemical markers of bone turnover (BTMs), such as the bone alkaline phosphatase (bALP), procollagen type I N propeptide (PINP), serum cross-linked C-telopeptides of type I collagen (bCTx), and urinary cross-linked N-telopeptides of type I collagen (NTx), are used to manage therapy monitoring in osteoporotic patients. This systematic review analyzed the potential of these BMTs in predicting the clinical outcomes in terms of BMD, t-score, rate of fractures, and adverse events during the therapy setting in postmenopausal osteoporosis.

Methods

All randomized clinical trials (RCTs) reporting data on biomarkers for postmenopausal osteoporosis were accessed. Only articles reporting quantitative data on the level of biomarkers at baseline and on the outcomes of interest at the last follow-up were eligible.

Results

A total of 36,706 patients were retrieved. Greater values of bALP were associated with a greater rate of vertebral (P = 0.001) and non-vertebral fractures (P = 0.0001). Greater values of NTx at baseline were associated with a greater rate of adverse events at the last follow-up (P = 0.02). Greater values of CTx at baseline were associated with a greater rate of adverse events leading to discontinuation (P = 0.04), gastrointestinal adverse events (P = 0.0001), musculoskeletal adverse events (P = 0.04), and mortality (P = 0.04). Greater values of PINP at baseline were associated with greater rates of gastrointestinal adverse events (P = 0.02) at the last follow-up.

Conclusion

The present analysis supports the adoption of BMTs during pharmacological therapy setting of patients suffering from osteoporosis.

Level of evidence

I, systematic review of RCTs

Trends in survival of older care home residents in England: A 10-year multi-cohort study

Increases in longevity combined with a policy emphasis on caring for older people in their own homes could have widened or narrowed the survival gap between care home and community-dwelling resident older people. Knowledge of pre-COVID-19 trends in this gap is needed to assess the longer-term impacts of the pandemic. We provide evidence for England on recent trends in 1, 2 and 3-year mortality amongst care home residents aged 65+ compared with similar community-dwelling residents. We use the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a nationally representative primary care database. For each of the ten years from 2006 to 2015, care home and community-dwelling residents aged 65+ were identified and matched in the ratio 1:3, according to age, gender, area deprivation and region. Cox survival analyses were used to estimate mortality risks for care home residents in comparison with similar community-dwelling people, adjusting for age, gender, area deprivation and region. The study sample consisted of ten overlapping cohorts averaging 5495 care home residents per cohort. Adjusted mortality risks increased over the study period for care home residents while decreasing slightly for matched community-dwelling residents. The relative risks (RRs) of mortality associated with care home residence were higher for younger ages and shorter follow-up periods, in all years. Over the decade, the RRs increased, most at younger ages and for shorter follow-up periods (e.g. for the age group 65-74 years, 1-year average RR increased by 61% from 5.4 to 8.8, while for those aged 85-94 years and over, 3-year RR increased by 22% from 1.3 to 1.6). Thus the survival gap between older care home and community-dwelling residents has been widening, especially at younger ages. In due course, it will be possible to establish to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in further growth in this gap.

Declining regional disparities in mortality in the context of persisting large inequalities in economic conditions: the case of Germany

BACKGROUND

Subnational regional mortality inequalities are large and appear to be mostly increasing within industrialized countries, although comparative studies across high-income countries are scarce. Germany is an important country to examine because it continues to experience considerable economic disparities between its federal states, in part resulting from its former division.

METHODS

We analyse state-level mortality in Germany utilizing data from a newly constructed regional database based on the methodology of the Human Mortality Database. We compare time trends (1991-2015) in the German state-level standard deviation in life expectancy to that of other large, wealthy countries and examine the association between mortality and economic inequalities at the regional level. Finally, using contour-decomposition methods, we investigate the degree to which age patterns of mortality are converging across German federal states.

RESULTS

Regional inequalities in life expectancy in Germany are comparatively low internationally, particularly among women, despite high state-level inequalities in economic conditions. These low regional mortality inequalities emerged 5-10 years after reunification. Mortality is converging over most ages between the longest- and shortest-living German state populations and across the former East-West political border, with the exception of an emerging East-West divergence in mortality among working-aged men.

CONCLUSIONS

The German example shows that large regional economic inequalities are not necessarily paralleled with large regional mortality disparities. Future research should investigate the factors that fostered the emergence of this unusual pattern in Germany.

Spatio-temporal Analysis of District-level Life Expectancy from 2004 to 2017 in Korea

BACKGROUND

Health indicators, such as mortality rates or life expectancy, need to be presented at the local level to improve the health of local residents and to reduce health inequality across geographic areas. The aim of this study was to estimate life expectancy at the district level in Korea through a spatio-temporal analysis.

METHODS

Spatio-temporal models were applied to the National Health Information Database of the National Health Insurance Service to estimate the mortality rates for 19 age groups in 250 districts from 2004 to 2017 by gender in Korea. Annual district-level life tables by gender were constructed using the estimated mortality rates, and then annual district-level life expectancy by gender was estimated using the life table method and the Kannisto-Thatcher method. The annual district-level life expectancies based on the spatio-temporal models were compared to the life expectancies calculated under the assumption that the mortality rates in these 250 districts are independent from one another.

RESULTS

In 2017, district-level life expectancy at birth ranged from 75.5 years (95% credible interval [CI], 74.0-77.0 years) to 84.2 years (95% CI, 83.4-85.0 years) for men and from 83.9 years (95% CI, 83.2-84.6 years) to 88.2 years (95% CI, 87.3-89.1 years) for women. Between 2004 and 2017, district-level life expectancy at birth increased by 4.57 years (95% CI, 4.49-4.65 years) for men and by 4.06 years (95% CI, 3.99-4.12 years) for women. To obtain stable annual life expectancy estimates at the district level, it is recommended to use the life expectancy based on spatio-temporal models instead of calculating life expectancy using observed mortality.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we estimated the annual district-level life expectancy from 2004 to 2017 in Korea by gender using a spatio-temporal model. Local governments could use annual district-level life expectancy estimates as a performance indicator of health policies to improve the health of local residents. The approach to district-level analysis with spatio-temporal modeling employed in this study could be used in future analyses to produce district-level health-related indicators in Korea.

The Older Adults With Rectal Cancer-Does Age Matter?: A Single-center Experience

OBJECTIVES

Oncological treatments of older patients have many unresolved questions mainly because of the fact that these patients were not eligible to be included in most clinical trials. The aim of this study was to evaluate the treatment approach to localized rectal cancer in the older population, including complication rates and overall survival in patients treated with curative intent.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective review of patients older than 80 years old (group A) who were treated for clinical stages II to III rectal cancer. The data collection included demographics, comorbidities, treatment protocols, adverse events, time of death, and a comparison with a group of patients aged 65 to 75 years (group B).

RESULTS

A total of 88 patients were included in the analysis (group A, 35; group B, 53). The groups were balanced with regards to sex, comorbidities, pretreatment albumin, and hemoglobin levels (for all categories P>0.05). More patients in group A (25%) received preoperative treatment as in-patients (P=0.022) and were treated with radiation only (P<0.0001) as the initial treatment approach. In group A, in 82% of patients the initial chemotherapy dose was reduced to 75% or less of the calculated dose compared with 7% in group B (P<0.001). Discontinuation of chemotherapy was needed in 55% in group A and 31% in group B (P=0.07). Median overall survival was 33 months in group A and 55 months in group B (P=0.06), 5-year overall survival was 27% and 60%, respectively (P=0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

The age has a significant implication on preoperative treatment, chemotherapy dose, hospitalization rates, and survival.

A comparative, correlate analysis and projection of global and regional life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, and their GAP: 1995-2025

Background

Life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) are indicators measuring the national health level. GAP is the difference between them. This study systematically analyzed and projected LE, HALE, and GAP across global regions from 1995 to 2025.

Methods

We obtained the data of 195 countries/regions on their LE, HALE, and influencing factors from 1995 to 2017. We compared the overall changes of LE, HALE, and GAP. Multiple linear regression analysis examined relationships among LE, HALE, GAP, and the associated factors. Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, we projected trends in LE, HALE, and GAP for 2017-2025.

Results

During 1995-2017, LE, HALE, and their GAP in 195 countries/regions in the world showed overall increasing trends. Global average LE increased from 66.20 to 72.98 years, HALE from 57.59 to 63.25 years, and GAP from 8.62 to 9.72 years. LE and HALE in North America, Europe, and Australia were generally higher, while Africa had the lowest rates. Females' LE, HALE, and GAP were all higher than males’, but females' growth rates of LE and HALE were lower. Different factors were included to project LE, HALE, and GAP, respectively, and prediction results showed that approximately 18% of the 195 countries/regions might achieve improved LE and HALE and lower GAP.

Conclusions

LE, HALE will likely continue to increase in most of countries and regions worldwide in the future and GAP will further expand. While striving to improve LE and HALE, more attention needs be made to reduce GAP and improve quality of life.

The contribution of specific non-communicable diseases to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 in Peru

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received political attention and commitment, yet surveillance is needed to measure progress and set priorities. Building on global estimates suggesting that Peru is not on target to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, we estimated the contribution of various NCDs to the change in unconditional probability of dying from NCDs in 25 regions in Peru.

Methods

Using national death registries and census data, we estimated the unconditional probability of dying between ages 30 and 69 from any and from each of the following NCDs: cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated the contribution of each NCD to the change in the unconditional probability of dying from any of these NCDs between 2006 and 2016.

Results

The overall unconditional probability of dying improved for men (21.4%) and women (23.3%). Cancer accounted for 10.9% in men and 13.7% in women of the overall reduction; cardiovascular diseases also contributed substantially: 11.3% in men) and 9.8% in women. Consistently in men and women and across regions, diabetes moved in the opposite direction of the overall reduction in the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD. Diabetes contributed a rise in the unconditional probability of 3.6% in men and 2.1% in women.

Conclusions

Although the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD has decreased, diabetes would prevent Peru from meeting international targets. Policies are needed to prevent diabetes and to strengthen healthcare to avoid diabetes-related complications and delay mortality.

Estimating weekly excess mortality at sub-national level in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic

In this study we present the first comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal differences in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. We used a population-based design on all-cause mortality data, for the 7,904 Italian municipalities. We estimated sex-specific weekly mortality rates for each municipality, based on the first four months of 2016-2019, while adjusting for age, localised temporal trends and the effect of temperature. Then, we predicted all-cause weekly deaths and mortality rates at municipality level for the same period in 2020, based on the modelled spatio-temporal trends. Lombardia showed higher mortality rates than expected from the end of February, with 23,946 (23,013 to 24,786) total excess deaths. North-West and North-East regions showed one week lag, with higher mortality from the beginning of March and 6,942 (6,142 to 7,667) and 8,033 (7,061 to 9,044) total excess deaths respectively. We observed marked geographical differences also at municipality level. For males, the city of Bergamo (Lombardia) showed the largest percent excess, 88.9% (81.9% to 95.2%), at the peak of the pandemic. An excess of 84.2% (73.8% to 93.4%) was also estimated at the same time for males in the city of Pesaro (Central Italy), in stark contrast with the rest of the region, which does not show evidence of excess deaths. We provided a fully probabilistic analysis of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic at sub-national level, suggesting a differential direct and indirect effect in space and time. Our model can be used to help policy-makers target measures locally to contain the burden on the health-care system as well as reducing social and economic consequences. Additionally, this framework can be used for real-time mortality surveillance, continuous monitoring of local temporal trends and to flag where and when mortality rates deviate from the expected range, which might suggest a second wave of the pandemic.

Sex-Specific Associations of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Biomarkers With Incident Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Whether cardiovascular (CV) disease risk factors and biomarkers associate differentially with heart failure (HF) risk in men and women is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate sex-specific associations of CV risk factors and biomarkers with incident HF.

METHODS

The analysis was performed using data from 4 community-based cohorts with 12.5 years of follow-up. Participants (recruited between 1989 and 2002) were free of HF at baseline. Biomarker measurements included natriuretic peptides, cardiac troponins, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, D-dimer, fibrinogen, C-reactive protein, sST2, galectin-3, cystatin-C, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio.

RESULTS

Among 22,756 participants (mean age 60 ± 13 years, 53% women), HF occurred in 2,095 participants (47% women). Age, smoking, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, body mass index, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left bundle branch block were strongly associated with HF in both sexes (p < 0.001), and the combined clinical model had good discrimination in men (C-statistic = 0.80) and in women (C-statistic = 0.83). The majority of biomarkers were strongly and similarly associated with HF in both sexes. The clinical model improved modestly after adding natriuretic peptides in men (ΔC-statistic = 0.006; likelihood ratio chi-square = 146; p < 0.001), and after adding cardiac troponins in women (ΔC-statistic = 0.003; likelihood ratio chi-square = 73; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

CV risk factors are strongly and similarly associated with incident HF in both sexes, highlighting the similar importance of risk factor control in reducing HF risk in the community. There are subtle sex-related differences in the predictive value of individual biomarkers, but the overall improvement in HF risk estimation when included in a clinical HF risk prediction model is limited in both sexes.

The longitudinal NIHR ARC North West Coast Household Health Survey: exploring health inequalities in disadvantaged communities

Background

The Household Health Survey (HHS) was developed to understand the socioeconomic determinants of mental and physical health, and health inequalities in health and social care. This paper aims to provide a detailed rationale of the development and implementation of the survey and explore socio-economic variations in physical and mental health and health care.

Methods

This comprehensive longitudinal public health survey was designed and piloted in a disadvantaged area of England, comprising questions on housing, physical health, mental health, lifestyle, social issues, environment, work, and finances. After piloting, the HHS was implemented across 28 neighbourhoods – 10 disadvantaged neighbourhoods for learning (NfLs), 10 disadvantaged comparator sites, and eight relatively advantaged areas, in 2015 and 2018. Participants were recruited via random sampling of households in pre-selected neighbourhoods based on their areas of deprivation.

Results

7731 residents participated in Wave 1 (N = 4319) and 2 (n = 3412) of the survey, with 871 residents having participated in both. Mental health, physical health, employment, and housing quality were poorer in disadvantaged neighbourhoods than in relatively advantaged areas.

Conclusions

This survey provides important insights into socio-economic variations in physical and mental health, with findings having implications for improved care provision to enable residents from any geographical or socio-economic background to access suitable care.

A systematic review of Bayesian spatial-temporal models on cancer incidence and mortality

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to review the types and applications of fully Bayesian (FB) spatial-temporal models and covariates used to study cancer incidence and mortality.

METHODS

This systematic review searched articles published within Medline, Embase, Web-of-Science and Google Scholar between 2014 and 2018.

RESULTS

A total of 38 studies were included in our study. All studies applied Bayesian spatial-temporal models to explore spatial patterns over time, and over half assessed the association with risk factors. Studies used different modelling approaches and prior distributions for spatial, temporal and spatial-temporal interaction effects depending on the nature of data, outcomes and applications. The most common Bayesian spatial-temporal model was a generalized linear mixed model. These models adjusted for covariates at the patient, area or temporal level, and through standardization.

CONCLUSIONS

Few studies (4) modelled patient-level clinical characteristics (11%), and the applications of an FB approach in the forecasting of spatial-temporally aligned cancer data were limited. This review highlighted the need for Bayesian spatial-temporal models to incorporate patient-level prognostic characteristics through the multi-level framework and forecast future cancer incidence and outcomes for cancer prevention and control strategies.

Health and care service utilisation and cost over the life-span: a descriptive analysis of population data

BACKGROUND

Current demographic changes affect both the level and composition of health and care needs in the population. The aim of this study was to estimate utilisation and cost for a comprehensive range of health and care services by age and gender to provide an in-depth picture of the life-span pattern of service needs and related costs.

METHODS

Data on service use in 2010 for the entire population in Norway were collected from four high-quality national registers. Cost for different services were calculated combining data on service utilisation from the registries and estimates of unit cost. Data on cost and users were aggregated within four healthcare services and seven long-term care services subtypes. Per capita cost by age and gender was decomposed into user rates and cost per user for each of the eleven services.

RESULTS

Half of the population is under 40 years of age, but only a quarter of the health and care cost is used on this age group. The age-group of 65 or older, on the other hand, represent only 15% of the population, but is responsible for almost half of the total cost. Healthcare cost dominates in ages under 80 and mental health services dominates in adolescents and young adults. Use of other healthcare services are high in middle aged and elderly but decreases for the oldest old. Use of care services and in particular institutional care increases in old age. Healthcare cost per user follows roughly the same age pattern as user rates, whereas user cost for care services typically are either relatively stable or decrease with age among adults. Gender differences in the age pattern of health and care costs are also revealed and discussed.

CONCLUSION

The type of services used, and the related cost, show a clear life-span as well as gender pattern. Hence, population aging and narrowing gender-gap in longivety calls for high policy awarness on changing health and care needs. Our study also underscores the need for an attentive and pro-active stance towards the high service prevalence and high cost of mental health care in our upcoming generations.

[E-cigarettes: toxicological fiasco or better than not giving up smoking?]

E‑cigarettes are increasingly used to replace tobacco cigarettes and to stop smoking, but mainly in the sense of dual use. There is lively debate about the assessment of the health risks of e‑cigarettes, but so far there are no comprehensive data for direct comparison with tobacco cigarettes. Other points of controversy include the potential for smoking cessation and the risk of moving from e‑cigarettes to tobacco cigarettes (gateway hypothesis). The present overview comes to the conclusion that, in accordance with the health policy already largely implemented in Great Britain, e‑cigarettes represent a greatly reduced health risk compared with tobacco cigarettes and are certainly suitable for giving up smoking.

Potential gains in life expectancy from reducing amenable mortality among people diagnosed with serious mental illness in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

To estimate the potential gain in life expectancy from addressing modifiable risk factors for all-cause mortality (excluding suicide and deaths from accidents or violence) across specific serious mental illness (SMI) subgroups, namely schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorders, and bipolar disorders in a Western population.

METHODS

We have used relative risks from recent meta-analyses to estimate the population attribution fraction (PAF) due to specific modifiable risk factors known to be associated with all-cause mortality within SMI. The potential gain in life expectancy at birth, age 50 and age 65 years were assessed by estimating the combined effect of modifiable risk factors from different contextual levels (behavioural, healthcare, social) and accounting for the effectiveness of existing interventions tackling these factors. Projections for annual gain in life expectancy at birth during a two-decade was estimated using the Annual Percentage Change (APC) formula. The predicted estimates were based on mortality rates for year 2014-2015.

RESULTS

Based on the effectiveness of existing interventions targeting these modifiable risk factors, we estimated potential gain in life expectancy at birth of four (bipolar disorders), six (schizoaffective disorders), or seven years (schizophrenia). The gain in life expectancy at age 50 years was three (bipolar disorders) or five (schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorders) years. The projected gain in life expectancy at age 65 years was three (bipolar disorders) or four (schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorders) years.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of existing interventions targeting modifiable risk factors could narrow the current mortality gap between the general and the SMI populations by 24% (men) to 28% (women). These projections represent ideal circumstances and without the limitation of overestimation which often comes with PAFs.

Income-related inequality in quality-adjusted life expectancy in Korea at the national and district levels

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to measure differences in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) by income in Korea at the national and district levels.

METHODS

Mortality rates and EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) scores were obtained from the National Health Information Database of the National Health Insurance Service and the Korea Community Health Survey, respectively. QALE and differences in QALE among income quintiles were calculated using combined 2008-2014 data for 245 districts in Korea. Correlation analyses were conducted to investigate the associations of neighborhood characteristics with QALE and income gaps therein.

RESULTS

QALE showed a graded pattern of inequality according to income, and increased over time for all levels of income and in both sexes, except for low-income quintiles among women, resulting in a widened inequality in QALE among women. In all 245 districts, pro-rich inequalities in QALE were found in both men and women. Districts with higher QALE and smaller income gaps in QALE were concentrated in metropolitan areas, while districts with lower QALE and larger income gaps in QALE were found in rural areas. QALE and differences in QALE by income showed relatively close correlations with socioeconomic characteristics, but relatively weak correlations with health behaviors, except for smoking and indicators related to medical resources.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of income-based inequalities in health measured by QALE in all subnational areas in Korea. Furthermore, QALE and differences in QALE by income were closely associated with neighborhood-level socioeconomic characteristics.

Evidence from big data in obesity research: international case studies

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Obesity is thought to be the product of over 100 different factors, interacting as a complex system over multiple levels. Understanding the drivers of obesity requires considerable data, which are challenging, costly and time-consuming to collect through traditional means. Use of 'big data' presents a potential solution to this challenge. Big data is defined by Delphi consensus as: always digital, has a large sample size, and a large volume or variety or velocity of variables that require additional computing power (Vogel et al. Int J Obes. 2019). 'Additional computing power' introduces the concept of big data analytics. The aim of this paper is to showcase international research case studies presented during a seminar series held by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Strategic Network for Obesity in the UK. These are intended to provide an in-depth view of how big data can be used in obesity research, and the specific benefits, limitations and challenges encountered.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Three case studies are presented. The first investigated the influence of the built environment on physical activity. It used spatial data on green spaces and exercise facilities alongside individual-level data on physical activity and swipe card entry to leisure centres, collected as part of a local authority exercise class initiative. The second used a variety of linked electronic health datasets to investigate associations between obesity surgery and the risk of developing cancer. The third used data on tax parcel values alongside data from the Seattle Obesity Study to investigate sociodemographic determinants of obesity in Seattle.

CONCLUSIONS

The case studies demonstrated how big data could be used to augment traditional data to capture a broader range of variables in the obesity system. They also showed that big data can present improvements over traditional data in relation to size, coverage, temporality, and objectivity of measures. However, the case studies also encountered challenges or limitations; particularly in relation to hidden/unforeseen biases and lack of contextual information. Overall, despite challenges, big data presents a relatively untapped resource that shows promise in helping to understand drivers of obesity.

Investigating associations between personality and the efficacy of interventions for cognitive ageing: A systematic review

The personal and societal impact of age-related cognitive decline supports the development of effective interventions. While some strategies, such as cognitive training, exercise or socio-intellectual engagement, appear beneficial, few studies have examined the association between personality and intervention efficacy. A systematic review was therefore conducted to summarise and synthesise the literature regarding the influence of personality traits on the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions for cognitive ageing. A systematic search of PubMed, PsycINFO and Web of Science was carried out. Of the 2100 papers identified by the search strategy, 10 studies were retained that met the relevant criteria (e.g., intervention studies with one or more cognitive outcomes and a measure of personality). Of these, two studies reported that higher levels of Openness to Experience were associated with greater improvement in memory performance after cognitive training interventions. Another found a positive association between Openness and improvement in divergent thinking following a novel group-based problem solving programme. One social intervention study reported positive moderating effects of Conscientiousness and Agreeableness, and mixed effects of Extraversion. Mixed evidence was also found regarding Need for Cognition, with one study reporting a positive association with memory improvement and another reporting less improvement in divergent thinking. Others found no evidence of personality influencing intervention outcomes. Due to the relatively small and heterogeneous sample of studies identified, any conclusions should currently be considered preliminary. These findings highlight the need for further research exploring the role of personality in intervention efficacy, so that interventions might be better tailored to individuals.

Sex and Gender Driven Modifiers of Alzheimer's: The Role for Estrogenic Control Across Age, Race, Medical, and Lifestyle Risks

Research indicates that after advanced age, the major risk factor for late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is female sex. Out of every three AD patients, two are females with postmenopausal women contributing to over 60% of all those affected. Sex- and gender-related differences in AD have been widely researched and several emerging lines of evidence point to different vulnerabilities that contribute to dementia risk. Among those being considered, it is becoming widely accepted that gonadal steroids contribute to the gender disparity in AD, as evidenced by the “estrogen hypothesis.” This posits that sex hormones, 17β-estradiol in particular, exert a neuroprotective effect by shielding females’ brains from disease development. This theory is further supported by recent findings that the onset of menopause is associated with the emergence of AD-related brain changes in women in contrast to men of the same age. In this review, we discuss genetic, medical, societal, and lifestyle risk factors known to increase AD risk differently between the genders, with a focus on the role of hormonal changes, particularly declines in 17β-estradiol during the menopause transition (MT) as key underlying mechanisms.

Assessing the impact of rising child poverty on the unprecedented rise in infant mortality in England, 2000-2017: time trend analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether there were inequalities in the sustained rise in infant mortality in England in recent years and the contribution of rising child poverty to these trends.

DESIGN

This is an analysis of trends in infant mortality in local authorities grouped into five categories (quintiles) based on their level of income deprivation. Fixed-effects regression models were used to quantify the association between regional changes in child poverty and regional changes in infant mortality.

SETTING

324 English local authorities in 9 English government office regions.

PARTICIPANTS

Live-born children under 1 year of age.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Infant mortality rate, defined as the number of deaths in children under 1 year of age per 100 000 live births in the same year.

RESULTS

The sustained and unprecedented rise in infant mortality in England from 2014 to 2017 was not experienced evenly across the population. In the most deprived local authorities, the previously declining trend in infant mortality reversed and mortality rose, leading to an additional 24 infant deaths per 100 000 live births per year (95% CI 6 to 42), relative to the previous trend. There was no significant change from the pre-existing trend in the most affluent local authorities. As a result, inequalities in infant mortality increased, with the gap between the most and the least deprived local authority areas widening by 52 deaths per 100 000 births (95% CI 36 to 68). Overall from 2014 to 2017, there were a total of 572 excess infant deaths (95% CI 200 to 944) compared with what would have been expected based on historical trends. We estimated that each 1% increase in child poverty was significantly associated with an extra 5.8 infant deaths per 100 000 live births (95% CI 2.4 to 9.2). The findings suggest that about a third of the increases in infant mortality between 2014 and 2017 can be attributed to rising child poverty (172 deaths, 95% CI 74 to 266).

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence that the unprecedented rise in infant mortality disproportionately affected the poorest areas of the country, leaving the more affluent areas unaffected. Our analysis also linked the recent increase in infant mortality in England with rising child poverty, suggesting that about a third of the increase in infant mortality from 2014 to 2017 may be attributed to rising child poverty.

The effects of acupuncture on cognitive impairment of vascular dementia patients: Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Vascular dementia (VaD) is the second prevalent dementia worldwide attributable to cognitive impairments. Acupuncture has been applied in clinic as a therapeutic modality to treat VaD. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to evaluate current evidence to explore the effectiveness and safety of acupuncture treatment to cognitive impairment of VaD.

METHODS

Randomized controlled trials will be searched restricted to their inception from January 1, 2000 to September 15, 2019. The following literature databases will be searched, including 4 English databases: PubMed, Excerpta Medica Database, the Cochrane Library, Medline, and 4 Chinese databases, namely the China National Knowledge Infrastructure Database, the Wanfang Database, the Chinese Scientific Journal Database, and the Chinese BioMedical Literature Database. After the selection and extraction of eligible studies, a meta-analysis will be undertaken to assess the efficacy and safety of acupuncture on VaD. The Review Manager Software V.5.3.5 will be employed for meta-analysis to assess the risk of bias, data synthesis, and subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

The systematic review and meta-analysis will be carried out to evaluate the efficacy and safety of acupuncture in the treatment of VaD, further provide an evidence-based synthesis for clinical and research applications.

CONCLUSIONS

The summary of our systematic review will determine whether acupuncture intervention to VaD is safe and well-tolerated in global status.

What We Need to Know About Retirement: Pressing Issues for the Coming Decade

The current landscape of retirement is changing dramatically as population aging becomes increasingly visible. This review of pressing retirement issues advocates research on (a) changing meanings of retirement, (b) impact of technology, (c) the role of housing in retirement, (d) human resource strategies, (e) adjustment to changing retirement policies, (f) the pension industry, and (g) the role of ethnic diversity in retirement.

Therapeutic perspective on vascular cognitive impairment

Dementia is one of the greatest public health concerns for the modern aging world. Over the last decade, most researchers developing new therapeutic strategies for dementia have focused on amyloid-β. In contrast, numerous recent studies have indicated that vascular risk factors are associated with various forms of dementia, and that in fact most forms of dementia can be considered an extension of vascular disease. Accordingly, it is sensible to pursue treatment approaches that focus on the blood vessels. Blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruptions in the white matter of patients with vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) have been observed using imaging analysis, and might be potential targets for novel VCI treatment. Tight junctions between cerebral endothelial cells play an important role in the function of the BBB, and recent studies have demonstrated the essential role of microRNAs in regulating tight junctions. Further elucidation of the mechanisms of tight junction-disruption in dementia are likely to lead to promising novel treatments. In this article, we summarize current knowledge regarding microRNAs and vascular cognitive impairment and the possibility of utilizing microRNAs as biomarkers for BBB dysfunction, and seek to envision future therapeutic strategies.

Measuring social, environmental and health inequalities using deep learning and street imagery

Cities are home to an increasing majority of the world’s population. Currently, it is difficult to track social, economic, environmental and health outcomes in cities with high spatial and temporal resolution, needed to evaluate policies regarding urban inequalities. We applied a deep learning approach to street images for measuring spatial distributions of income, education, unemployment, housing, living environment, health and crime. Our model predicts different outcomes directly from raw images without extracting intermediate user-defined features. To evaluate the performance of the approach, we first trained neural networks on a subset of images from London using ground truth data at high spatial resolution from official statistics. We then compared how trained networks separated the best-off from worst-off deciles for different outcomes in images not used in training. The best performance was achieved for quality of the living environment and mean income. Allocation was least successful for crime and self-reported health (but not objectively measured health). We also evaluated how networks trained in London predict outcomes three other major cities in the UK: Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds. The transferability analysis showed that networks trained in London, fine-tuned with only 1% of images in other cities, achieved performances similar to ones from trained on data from target cities themselves. Our findings demonstrate that street imagery has the potential complement traditional survey-based and administrative data sources for high-resolution urban surveillance to measure inequalities and monitor the impacts of policies that aim to address them.

Contributions of diseases and injuries to widening life expectancy inequalities in England from 2001 to 2016: a population-based analysis of vital registration data

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy inequalities in England have increased steadily since the 1980s. Our aim was to investigate how much deaths from different diseases and injuries and at different ages have contributed to this rise to inform policies that aim to reduce health inequalities.

METHODS

We used vital registration data from the Office for National Statistics on population and deaths in England, by underlying cause of death, from 2001 to 2016, stratified by sex, 5-year age group, and decile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (based on the ranked scores of Lower Super Output Areas in England in 2015). We grouped the 7·65 million deaths by their assigned International Classification of Diseases (10th revision) codes to create categories of public health and clinical relevance. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain robust estimates of cause-specific death rates by sex, age group, year, and deprivation decile. We calculated life expectancy at birth by decile of deprivation and year using life-table methods. We calculated the contributions of deaths from each disease and injury, in each 5-year age group, to the life expectancy gap between the most deprived and affluent deciles using Arriaga's method.

FINDINGS

The life expectancy gap between the most affluent and most deprived deciles increased from 6·1 years (95% credible interval 5·9-6·2) in 2001 to 7·9 years (7·7-8·1) in 2016 in females and from 9·0 years (8·8-9·2) to 9·7 years (9·6-9·9) in males. Since 2011, the rise in female life expectancy has stalled in the third, fourth, and fifth most deprived deciles and has reversed in the two most deprived deciles, declining by 0·24 years (0·10-0·37) in the most deprived and 0·16 years (0·02-0·29) in the second-most deprived by 2016. Death rates from every disease and at every age were higher in deprived areas than in affluent ones in 2016. The largest contributors to life expectancy inequalities were deaths in children younger than 5 years (mostly neonatal deaths), respiratory diseases, ischaemic heart disease, and lung and digestive cancers in working ages, and dementias in older ages. From 2001 to 2016, the contributions to inequalities declined for deaths in children younger than 5 years, ischaemic heart disease (for both sexes), and stroke and intentional injuries (for men), but increased for most other causes.

INTERPRETATION

Recent trends in life expectancy in England have not only resulted in widened inequalities but the most deprived communities are now seeing no life expectancy gain. These inequalities are driven by a diverse group of diseases that can be effectively prevented and treated. Adoption of the principle of proportionate universalism to prevention and health and social care can postpone deaths into older ages for all communities and reduce life expectancy inequalities.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Contributions of diseases and injuries to widening life expectancy inequalities in England from 2001 to 2016: a population-based analysis of vital registration data

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy inequalities in England have increased steadily since the 1980s. Our aim was to investigate how much deaths from different diseases and injuries and at different ages have contributed to this rise to inform policies that aim to reduce health inequalities.

METHODS

We used vital registration data from the Office for National Statistics on population and deaths in England, by underlying cause of death, from 2001 to 2016, stratified by sex, 5-year age group, and decile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (based on the ranked scores of Lower Super Output Areas in England in 2015). We grouped the 7·65 million deaths by their assigned International Classification of Diseases (10th revision) codes to create categories of public health and clinical relevance. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain robust estimates of cause-specific death rates by sex, age group, year, and deprivation decile. We calculated life expectancy at birth by decile of deprivation and year using life-table methods. We calculated the contributions of deaths from each disease and injury, in each 5-year age group, to the life expectancy gap between the most deprived and affluent deciles using Arriaga's method.

FINDINGS

The life expectancy gap between the most affluent and most deprived deciles increased from 6·1 years (95% credible interval 5·9-6·2) in 2001 to 7·9 years (7·7-8·1) in 2016 in females and from 9·0 years (8·8-9·2) to 9·7 years (9·6-9·9) in males. Since 2011, the rise in female life expectancy has stalled in the third, fourth, and fifth most deprived deciles and has reversed in the two most deprived deciles, declining by 0·24 years (0·10-0·37) in the most deprived and 0·16 years (0·02-0·29) in the second-most deprived by 2016. Death rates from every disease and at every age were higher in deprived areas than in affluent ones in 2016. The largest contributors to life expectancy inequalities were deaths in children younger than 5 years (mostly neonatal deaths), respiratory diseases, ischaemic heart disease, and lung and digestive cancers in working ages, and dementias in older ages. From 2001 to 2016, the contributions to inequalities declined for deaths in children younger than 5 years, ischaemic heart disease (for both sexes), and stroke and intentional injuries (for men), but increased for most other causes.

INTERPRETATION

Recent trends in life expectancy in England have not only resulted in widened inequalities but the most deprived communities are now seeing no life expectancy gain. These inequalities are driven by a diverse group of diseases that can be effectively prevented and treated. Adoption of the principle of proportionate universalism to prevention and health and social care can postpone deaths into older ages for all communities and reduce life expectancy inequalities.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

The emergence and utilisation of frailty in the United Kingdom: a contemporary biopolitical practice

Frailty has recently emerged as a dominant concept against a backdrop of media and governmental narratives that frame the growing ageing population as an economic threat to the current configuration of health care in the United Kingdom (UK). Despite frailty's popularity amongst geriatricians and policy makers, the concept faces resistance from other health-care professionals and older people themselves. This paper draws on the Foucauldian idea of biopower; by suggesting that the contemporary emergence and utilisation of frailty represents a biopolitical practice a number or critical observations are made. First, despite biomedical experts acknowledging ambiguities in the definition of frailty, the concept is presented as a truth discourse. This is driven by the ability of frailty measurements to predict risk of costly adverse outcomes; the capability of frailty scores to enumerate complex needs; and the scientific legitimacy frailty affords to geriatric medicine. Consequently, frailty has become pervasive, knowable and measurable. Second, the routine delineation between frail and robust objectifies older people, and can be said to benefit those making the diagnosis over those being labelled frail, with the latter becoming disempowered. Last, studies show that frailty is associated with increasing wealth inequalities in the UK; however, experts’ suggested management of frailty shifts the focus of responsibility away from ideologically driven structural inequalities towards the frail older person, attempting to encourage individuals to modify lifestyle choices. This neglects the association between lifestyle opportunities and socio-economic deprivation, and the impact of long-term poverty on health. These observations, set against the contemporary political climate of economic austerity, cuts to public services and rationalisation of health resources, bring the urgency of a critical consideration of frailty to the fore.