Visualizing and quantifying natural selection

Pollinator-mediated selection on Krameria oil flowers: a flower-pollinator fit adaptation to an atypical oil-collecting behaviour?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Spatial variation in plant-pollinator interactions is a key driver of floral trait diversification. A so far overlooked qualitative aspect of this variation is the behavioural component on flowers that relates to the pollinator fit. We tested the hypothesis that variation in pollinator behaviour influences the geographical pattern of phenotypic selection across the distribution range of the oil-producing Krameria grandiflora (Krameriaceae). This variation mainly involves the presence or absence of flag petal grasping, which is only performed by representatives of Centris (Centridini, Apidae), an oil-collecting bee group highly associated with Krameriaceae pollination.

METHODS

We quantified variation in floral traits and fitness and estimated pollinator-mediated selection in five populations at a large geographical scale comprising the entire species range. In each population, we sampled individual pollen arrival and germination as a fitness measure, indicating pollination success and pollination performance, which was then relativized and regressed on standardized flower-pollinator fit (flag-stigma distance), advertisement (sepal length) and reward (oil volume) traits. This generated mean-scaled selection gradients used to calculate geographical selection dispersion.

KEY RESULTS

Unexpectedly, stronger selection was detected on the flower-pollinator fit trait in populations highly associated with the absence of flag petal grasping. Geographical variation in selection was mainly attributed to differential selection on the flag-stigma distance generating a selection mosaic. This may involve influences of a spatial variation in pollinator behaviour as well as composition and morphology.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show the adaptive significance of the specialized flag petals of Krameria in the absence of the grasping behaviour and highlight the contribution of geographical variation in pollinator behaviour on flowers in driving selection mosaics, with implications for floral evolution, adaptation to pollinator fit and phenotypic diversity in specialized systems.

Phenotypic selection patterns in a hybrid zone between two Calceolaria species with contrasting pollinators: insights from field surveys and fitness assessments

Hybrid zones provide natural experimental settings to test hypotheses about species divergence. We concentrated on a hybrid swarm in which oil-collecting bees and flower-pecking birds act as pollinators of two Calceolaria species. We asked whether both pollinators contributed to flower divergence by differentially promoting prezygotic fitness at the phenotypic extremes that represent parentals. We studied pollinator-mediated selection on phenotypic traits critical in plant-pollinator mechanical interaction, namely plant height, reward-to-stigma distance, and flower shape. We utilised the quantity and quality of pollen deposited as fitness measures and distinguished between the contribution of the two pollinator types. Results showed uni- and bivariate disruptive selection for most traits through pollen grains deposited by both pollinators. Bird-mediated fitness favoured low plants with a long reward-to-stigma distance and a straight corolla, while bee-mediated fitness favoured tall plants with a short reward-to-stigma distance and curved corolla. In addition, stabilising selection at one end of the phenotypic range showed a bird-mediated reproductive asymmetry within the swarm. The disruptive pattern was countered, albeit weakly, by hybrids receiving higher-quality pollen on the stigmas. Results suggest that pollinator-mediated selection promotes divergence of integrated flower phenotypes mechanically adjusted either to bees or birds underscoring the importance of pollinator specialisation in diversification.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Sexually concordant selection on floral traits despite greater opportunity for selection through male fitness

Pollinators are important drivers of floral trait evolution, yet plant populations are not always perfectly adapted to their pollinators. Such apparent maladaptation may result from conflicting selection through male and female sexual functions in hermaphrodites. We studied sex-specific mating patterns and phenotypic selection on floral traits in Aconitum gymnandrum. After genotyping 1786 offspring, we partitioned individual fitness into sex-specific selfed and outcrossed components and estimated phenotypic selection acting through each. Relative fitness increased with increasing mate number, and more so for male function. This led to greater opportunity for selection through outcrossed male fitness, though patterns of phenotypic selection on floral traits tended to be similar, and with better support for selection through female rather than male fitness components. We detected directional selection through one or more fitness component for larger flower number, larger flowers, and more negative nectar gradients within inflorescences. Our results are consistent with Bateman's principles for sex-specific mating patterns and illustrate that, despite the expected difference in opportunity for selection, patterns of variation in selection across traits can be rather similar for the male and female sexual functions. These results shed new light on the effect of sexual selection on the evolution of floral traits.

Sex-specific heritabilities for length at maturity among Pacific salmonids and their consequences for evolution in response to artificial selection

Artificial selection, whether intentional or coincidental, is a common result of conservation policies and natural resource management. To reduce unintended consequences of artificial selection, conservation practitioners must understand both artificial selection gradients on traits of interest and how those traits are correlated with others that may affect population growth and resilience. We investigate how artificial selection on male body size in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) may influence the evolution of female body size and female fitness. While salmon hatchery managers often assume that selection for large males will also produce large females, this may not be the case-in fact, because the fastest-growing males mature earliest and at the smallest size, and because female age at maturity varies little, small males may produce larger females if the genetic architecture of growth rate is the same in both sexes. We explored this possibility by estimating sex-specific heritability values of and natural and artificial selection gradients on length at maturity in four populations representing three species of Pacific salmon. We then used the multivariate breeder's equation to project how artificial selection against small males may affect the evolution of female length and fecundity. Our results indicate that the heritability of length at maturity is greater within than between the sexes and that sire-daughter heritability values are especially small. Salmon hatchery policies should consider these sex-specific quantitative genetic parameters to avoid potential unintended consequences of artificial selection.

Contrasting Size Distributions among the Wing Spots of a Pierid Butterfly Suggest Different Selective Histories

Males of the small cabbage butterfly Pieris rapae crucivora have two dark or melanic spots in the central white area of each dorsal forewing, an anterior spot (aS) and a posterior spot (pS). We used characteristics of the size distributions of these spots to infer how selection has acted on them during their evolution. Our study reveals that the aS size distribution is normal while that of pS is very right-skewed. Moreover, aS size is larger and less variable than pS size. These results suggest that the aS has been under stabilizing selection while the pS has not. The context in which this selection is acting is not yet clear, nor is it clear why pS persists as a wing marking.

Disruptive selection via pollinators and seed predators on the height of flowers on a wind-dispersed alpine herb

PREMISE

Floral stalk height is known to affect seed dispersal of wind-dispersed grassland species, but it may also affect the attractiveness of flowers and fruits of animal-pollinated and animal-dispersed plants. Stalk height may thus be responsive to selection via interactions with both mutualist pollinators and seed dispersers, but also antagonist florivores and seed predators. In this study, we aimed to determine the effect of pollinators and seed predators on selection on floral stalk height in the insect-pollinated and wind-dispersed, alpine, andromonoecious herb Pulsatilla alpina, whose flowers also vary in their sex allocation and thus in the resources available to both mutualists and antagonists.

METHODS

We measured the resource status of individuals in terms of their size and the height of the vegetation surrounding plants of P. alpina at 11 sites. In one population, we recorded floral stalk height over an entire growing season and investigated its association with floral morphology and floral sex allocation (pistil and stamen number) and used leaf-removal manipulations to assess the effect of herbivory on floral stalk height. Finally, in four populations, we quantified phenotypic selection on floral stalk height in four female components of reproductive success before seed dispersal.

RESULTS

Stalk height was positively associated with female allocation of the respective flower, the resource status of the individual, and the height of the surrounding vegetation, and negatively affected by leaf removal. Our results point to disruptive selection on stalk height in terms of both selection differentials and selection gradients for fertilization, seed predation, and seed maturation rates and to positive selection on stalk height in terms of a selection differential for mature seed number.

CONCLUSIONS

Stalk height of P. alpina is a costly trait that affects female reproductive success via interactions with both mutualists and antagonists. We discuss the interplay between the resource status and selection imposed on female reproductive success and its likely role in the evolution of sex-allocation strategies, especially andromonoecy.

Water and nutrient availability exert selection on reproductive phenology

PREMISE

Global change has changed resource availability to plants, which could shift the adaptive landscape. We hypothesize that novel water and nutrient availability combinations alter patterns of natural selection on reproductive phenology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) and influence the evolution of local adaptation.

METHODS

We conducted a multifactorial greenhouse study using 35 accessions of B. stricta sourced from a broad elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains. We exposed full siblings to three soil water and two nutrient availability treatment levels, reflecting current and projected future conditions. In addition, we quantified fitness (seed count) and four phenological traits: the timing of first flowering, the duration of flowering, and height and leaf number at flowering.

RESULTS

Selection favored early flowering and longer duration of flowering, and the genetic correlation between these traits accorded with the direction of selection. In most treatments, we found selection for increased height, but selection on leaf number depended on water availability, with selection favoring more leaves in well-watered conditions and fewer leaves under severe drought. Low-elevation genotypes had the greatest fitness under drought stress, consistent with local adaptation.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of strong selection on these heritable traits. Furthermore, the direction and strength of selection on size at flowering depended on the variable measured (height vs. leaf number). Finally, selection often favored both early flowering and a longer duration of flowering. Selection on these two components of phenology can be difficult to disentangle due to tight genetic correlations.

Climate fluctuations influence variation in group size in a cooperative bird

Variation in group size is ubiquitous in social animals, but explaining the range of group sizes seen in nature remains challenging.^1-3 Group-living species occur most frequently in climatically unpredictable environments, such that the costs and benefits of sociality may change from year to year.^4-6 It is, therefore, possible that variation in climate may help to maintain a range of group sizes, but this hypothesis is rarely tested empirically.^7,8 Here, we examine selection on breeding group size in the greater ani (Crotophaga major), a tropical bird that nests in cooperative groups containing multiple co-breeders and non-breeding helpers.⁹ We found that larger groups experience lower nest predation (due to cooperative nest defense) but suffer higher nestling starvation (due to intra-clutch competition). Long-term data revealed that the relative magnitude of these costs and benefits depends on climate, with frequent changes across years in the strength and direction of selection on group size. In wet years, individual reproductive success was higher in large groups than in small groups, whereas the opposite was true in dry years. This was partly a consequence of competition among nestlings in large clutches, which suffered significantly higher mortality in dry years than in wet years. Averaged over the 13-year study period, annual reproductive success was approximately equal for females in small and large groups. These results suggest that temporal changes in the direction of selection may help explain the persistence of a range of group sizes and that a full understanding of the selective pressures shaping sociality requires long-term fitness data.

Studying predator foraging mode and hunting success at the individual level with an online videogame

Predator–prey interactions are important drivers of community and ecosystem dynamics. With an online multiplayer videogame, we propose a novel system to explore within population variation in predator hunting mode, and how predator–prey behavioral interactions affect predator hunting success. We empirically examined how four predator foraging behaviors covary at three hierarchical levels (among environments, among individuals, and within individuals) to assess the structure of predator hunting mode. We also investigated how prey activity affects the foraging behavior and hunting success of predators. Our study supports key findings on predator foraging mode and predator-prey interactions from behavioral ecology. We found that individual predators displayed a diversity of hunting tactics that were conditioned by prey behavior. With prey movement, individual predators specialized either as cursorial or ambush hunters along a continuum of their hunting traits, but also shifted their strategy between encounters. Both types of hunters were generally better against slower moving prey, and they achieved similar prey captures over the sampling period. This suggests that virtual worlds supporting multiplayer online videogames can serve as legitimate systems to advance our knowledge on predator–prey interactions.

Experimental evolution of a more restrained clutch size when filial cannibalism is prevented in burying beetles Nicrophorus vespilloides

The overproduction of offspring is commonly associated with high hatching failure and a mechanism for dispensing with surplus young. We used experimental evolution of burying beetle populations Nicrophorus vespilloides to determine causality in these correlations. We asked does eliminating the mechanism for killing “spare” offspring cause the evolution of a more restrained clutch size and consequently select for reduced hatching failure? N. vespilloides typically overproduces eggs but kills 1^st instar larvae through partial filial cannibalism during brood care. We established replicate evolving populations that either could practice filial cannibalism (Full Care) or could not, by removing parents before their young hatched (No Care). After 20+ generations of experimental evolution, we measured clutch size and hatching success. We found that No Care females produced fewer eggs than Full Care females when allowed to breed on a small corpse, a finding not explained by differences in female quality. On larger corpses, females from both populations laid similar numbers of eggs. Furthermore, hatching success was greater in the No Care populations on small corpses. Our results suggest that the adaptive overproduction of offspring depends on a mechanism for eliminating surplus young and that killing offspring, in turn, relaxes selection against hatching failure.

The repeated evolution of stripe patterns is correlated with body morphology in the adaptive radiations of East African cichlid fishes

Color patterns are often linked to the behavioral and morphological characteristics of an animal, contributing to the effectiveness of such patterns as antipredatory strategies. Species-rich adaptive radiations, such as the freshwater fish family Cichlidae, provide an exciting opportunity to study trait correlations at a macroevolutionary scale. Cichlids are also well known for their diversity and repeated evolution of color patterns and body morphology. To study the evolutionary dynamics between color patterns and body morphology, we used an extensive dataset of 461 species. A phylogenetic supertree of these species shows that stripe patterns evolved ~70 times independently and were lost again ~30 times. Moreover, stripe patterns show strong signs of correlated evolution with body elongation, suggesting that the stripes' effectiveness as antipredatory strategy might differ depending on the body shape. Using pedigree-based analyses, we show that stripes and body elongation segregate independently, indicating that the two traits are not genetically linked. Their correlation in nature is therefore likely maintained by correlational selection. Lastly, by performing a mate preference assay using a striped CRISPR-Cas9 mutant of a nonstriped species, we show that females do not differentiate between striped CRISPR mutant males and nonstriped wild-type males, suggesting that these patterns might be less important for species recognition and mate choice. In summary, our study suggests that the massive rates of repeated evolution of stripe patterns are shaped by correlational selection with body elongation, but not by sexual selection.

Detecting patterns of correlational selection with sampling error: A simulation study

The adoption of a multivariate perspective of selection implies the existence of multivariate adaptive peaks and pervasive correlational selection that promotes co-adaptation between traits. However, to test for the ubiquity of correlational selection in nature, we must first have a sense of how well can we estimate multivariate nonlinear selection (i.e., the γ-matrix) in the face of sampling error. To explore the sampling properties of estimated γ-matrices, we simulated inidividual traits and fitness under a wide range of sample sizes, using different strengths of correlational selection and of stabilizing selection, combined with different number of traits under selection, different amounts of residual variance in fitness, and distinct patterns of selection. We then ran nonlinear regressions with these simulated datasets to simulate γ-matrices after adding random error to individual fitness. To test how well could we detect the imposed pattern of correlational selection at different sample sizes, we measured the similarity between simulated and imposed γ-matrices. We show that detection of the pattern of correlational selection is highly dependent on the total strength of selection on traits and on the amount of residual variance in fitness. Minimum sample size needs to be at least 500 to precisely estimate the pattern of correlational selection. Furthermore, a pattern of selection in which different sets of traits contribute to different functions is the easiest to diagnose, even when using a large number of traits (10 traits), but with sample sizes in the order of 1000 individuals. Consequently, we recommend working with sets of traits from distinct functional complexes and fitness proxies less prone to effects of environmental and demographic stochasticity to test for correlational selection with lower sample sizes.

Phenotypic Assortment Changes the Landscape of Selection

Social interactions with conspecifics can dramatically affect an individual's fitness. The positive or negative consequences of interacting with social partners typically depend on the value of traits that they express. These pathways of social selection connect the traits and genes expressed in some individuals to the fitness realized by others, thereby altering the total phenotypic selection on and evolutionary response of traits across the multivariate phenotype. The downstream effects of social selection are mediated by the patterns of phenotypic assortment between focal individuals and their social partners (the interactant covariance, Cij', or the multivariate form, CI). Depending on the sign and magnitude of the interactant covariance, the direction of social selection can be reinforced, reversed, or erased. We report estimates of Cij' from a variety of studies of forked fungus beetles to address the largely unexplored questions of consistency and plasticity of phenotypic assortment in natural populations. We found that phenotypic assortment of male beetles based on body size or horn length was highly variable among subpopulations, but that those differences also were broadly consistent from year to year. At the same time, the strength and direction of Cij' changed quickly in response to experimental changes in resource distribution and social properties of populations. Generally, interactant covariances were more negative in contexts in which the number of social interactions was greater in both field and experimental situations. These results suggest that patterns of phenotypic assortment could be important contributors to variability in multilevel selection through their mediation of social selection gradients.

Selection on Sperm Count, but Not on Sperm Morphology or Velocity, in a Wild Population of Anolis Lizards

Sperm competition is a widespread phenomenon that shapes male reproductive success. Ejaculates present many potential targets for postcopulatory selection (e.g., sperm morphology, count, and velocity), which are often highly correlated and potentially subject to complex multivariate selection. Although multivariate selection on ejaculate traits has been observed in laboratory experiments, it is unclear whether selection is similarly complex in wild populations, where individuals mate frequently over longer periods of time. We measured univariate and multivariate selection on sperm morphology, sperm count, and sperm velocity in a wild population of brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei). We conducted a mark-recapture study with genetic parentage assignment to estimate individual reproductive success. We found significant negative directional selection and negative quadratic selection on sperm count, but we did not detect directional or quadratic selection on any other sperm traits, nor did we detect correlational selection on any trait combinations. Our results may reflect pressure on males to produce many small ejaculates and mate frequently over a six-month reproductive season. This study is the first to measure multivariate selection on sperm traits in a wild population and provides an interesting contrast to experimental studies of external fertilizers, which have found complex multivariate selection on sperm phenotypes.

An evaluation of the potential factors affecting lifetime reproductive success in salmonids

Lifetime reproductive success (LRS), the number of offspring produced over an organism's lifetime, is a fundamental component of Darwinian fitness. For taxa such as salmonids with multiple species of conservation concern, understanding the factors affecting LRS is critical for the development and implementation of successful conservation management practices. Here, we reviewed the published literature to synthesize factors affecting LRS in salmonids including significant effects of hatchery rearing, life history, and phenotypic variation, and behavioral and spawning interactions. Additionally, we found that LRS is affected by competitive behavior on the spawning grounds, genetic compatibility, local adaptation, and hybridization. Our review of existing literature revealed limitations of LRS studies, and we emphasize the following areas that warrant further attention in future research: (1) expanding the range of studies assessing LRS across different life-history strategies, specifically accounting for distinct reproductive and migratory phenotypes; (2) broadening the variety of species represented in salmonid fitness studies; (3) constructing multigenerational pedigrees to track long-term fitness effects; (4) conducting LRS studies that investigate the effects of aquatic stressors, such as anthropogenic effects, pathogens, environmental factors in both freshwater and marine environments, and assessing overall body condition, and (5) utilizing appropriate statistical approaches to determine the factors that explain the greatest variation in fitness and providing information regarding biological significance, power limitations, and potential sources of error in salmonid parentage studies. Overall, this review emphasizes that studies of LRS have profoundly advanced scientific understanding of salmonid fitness, but substantial challenges need to be overcome to assist with long-term recovery of these keystone species in aquatic ecosystems.

Constrained flexibility of parental cooperation limits adaptive responses to harsh conditions

Parental care is predicted to evolve to mitigate harsh environments, thus adaptive plasticity of care may be an important response to our climate crisis. In biparental species, fitness costs may be reduced by resolving conflict and enhancing cooperation among partners. We investigated this prediction with the burying beetle, Nicrophorus orbicollis, by exposing them to contrasting benign and harsh thermal environments. Despite measurable fitness costs under the harsh environment, sexual conflict persisted in the form of sex-specific social plasticity. That is, females provided equivalent care with or without males, whereas males with partners deserted earlier and reduced provisioning effort. The interaction of social condition and thermal environment did not explain variation in individual behavior, failing to support a temperature-mediated shift from conflict to cooperation. Examining selection gradients and splines on cumulative care revealed a likely explanation for these patterns. Contrary to predictions, increased care did not enhance offspring performance under stress. Rather, different components of care were under different selection regimes, with optimization constrained due to lack of coordination between parents. We suggest that the potential for parenting to ameliorate the effects of our climate crisis may depend on the sex-specific evolutionary drivers of parental care, and that this may be best reflected in components of care.

Antagonistic selection on body size and sword length in a wild population of the swordtail fish, Xiphophorus multilineatus: Potential for intralocus tactical conflict

Alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs) have provided valuable insights into how sexual selection and life history trade-offs can lead to variation within a sex. However, the possibility that tactics may constrain evolution through intralocus tactical conflict (IATC) is rarely considered. In addition, when IATC has been considered, the focus has often been on the genetic correlations between the ARTs, while evidence that the ARTs have different optima for associated traits and that at least one of the tactics is not at its optimum is often missing. Here, we investigate selection on three traits associated with the ARTs in the swordtail fish Xiphophorus multilineatus; body size, body shape, and the sexually selected trait for which these fishes were named, sword length (elongation of the caudal fin). All three traits are tactically dimorphic, with courter males being larger, deeper bodied and having longer swords, and the sneaker males being smaller, more fusiform and having shorter swords. Using measures of reproductive success in a wild population we calculated selection differentials, as well as linear and quadratic gradients. We demonstrated that the tactics have different optima and at least one of the tactics is not at its optimum for body size and sword length. Our results provide the first evidence of selection in the wild on the sword, an iconic trait for sexual selection. In addition, given the high probability that these traits are genetically correlated to some extent between the two tactics, our study suggests that IATC is constraining both body size and the sword from reaching their phenotypic optima. We discuss the importance of considering the role of IATC in the evolution of tactical dimorphism, how this conflict can be present despite tactical dimorphism, and how it is important to consider this conflict when explaining not only variation within a species but differences across species as well.

Multiple modes of selection can influence the role of phenotypic plasticity in species' invasions: Evidence from a manipulative field experiment

In exploring the roles of phenotypic plasticity in the establishment and early evolution of invading species, little empirical attention has been given to the importance of correlational selection acting upon suites of functionally related plastic traits in nature. We illustrate how this lack of attention has limited our ability to evaluate plasticity's role during invasion and also, the costs and benefits of plasticity. We addressed these issues by transplanting clones of European-derived Plantago lanceolata L. genotypes into two temporally variable habitats in the species' introduced range in North America. Phenotypic selection analyses were performed for each habitat to estimate linear, quadratic, and correlational selection on phenotypic trait values and plasticities in the reproductive traits: flowering onset and spike and scape lengths. Also, we measured pairwise genetic correlations for our "colonists." Results showed that (a) correlational selection acted on trait plasticity after transplantation, (b) selection favored certain combinations of genetically correlated and uncorrelated trait values and plasticities, and (c) using signed, instead of absolute, values of plasticity in analyses facilitated the detection of correlational selection on trait value-plasticity combinations and their adaptive value. Based on our results, we urge future studies on species invasions to (a) measure correlational selection and (b) retain signed values of plasticity in order to better discriminate between adaptive and maladaptive plasticity.

Most published selection gradients are underestimated: Why this is and how to fix it

Ecologists and evolutionary biologists routinely estimate selection gradients. Most researchers seek to quantify selection on individual phenotypes, regardless of whether fixed or repeatedly expressed traits are studied. Selection gradients estimated to address such questions are attenuated unless analyses account for measurement error and biological sources of within-individual variation. Estimates of standardized selection gradients published in Evolution between 2010 and 2019 were primarily based on traits measured once (59% of 325 estimates). We show that those are attenuated: bias increases with decreasing repeatability but differently for linear versus nonlinear gradients. Others derived individual-mean trait values prior to analyses (41%), typically using few repeats per individual, which does not remove bias. We evaluated three solutions, all requiring repeated measures: (i) correcting gradients derived from classic models using estimates of trait correlations and repeatabilities, (ii) multivariate mixed-effects models, previously used for estimating linear gradients (seven estimates, 2%), which we expand to nonlinear analyses, and (iii) errors-in-variables models that account for within-individual variance, and are rarely used in selection studies. All approaches produced accurate estimates regardless of repeatability and type of gradient, however, errors-in-variables models produced more precise estimates and may thus be preferable.

The battle between harvest and natural selection creates small and shy fish

Harvest of fish and wildlife, both commercial and recreational, is a selective force that can induce evolutionary changes to life history and behavior. Naturally selective forces may create countering selection pressures. Assessing natural fitness represents a considerable challenge in broadcast spawners. Thus, our understanding about the relative strength of natural and fisheries selection is slim. In the field, we compared the strength and shape of harvest selection to natural selection on body size over four years and behavior over one year in a natural population of a freshwater top predator, the northern pike (Esox lucius). Natural selection was approximated by relative reproductive success via parent-offspring genetic assignments over four years. Harvest selection was measured by comparing individuals susceptible to recreational angling with individuals never captured by this gear type. Individual behavior was measured by high-resolution acoustic telemetry. Harvest and natural size selection operated with equal strength but opposing directions, and harvest size selection was consistently negative in all study years. Harvest selection also had a substantial behavioral component independent of body length, while natural behavioral selection was not documented, suggesting the potential for directional harvest selection favoring inactive, timid fish. Simulations of the outcomes of different fishing regulations showed that traditional minimum size-based harvest limits are unlikely to counteract harvest selection without being completely restrictive. Our study suggests harvest selection may be inevitable and recreational fisheries may thus favor small, inactive, shy, and difficult-to-capture fish. Increasing fractions of shy fish in angling-exploited stocks would have consequences for stock assessment and all fisheries operating with hook and line.

Sexual selection on performance traits in an Australian lizard with alternative reproductive tactics

Sexual selection shapes the adaptive landscape in complex ways that lead to trait integration. Much of our understanding of selection comes from studies of morphological traits. However, few studies attempt to quantify the form and direction of selection on performance even though it is predicted to be a more direct target of selection in nature. We measured sexual selection on performance traits (bite force, sprint speed and endurance) in an Australian lizard, the Eastern water skink (Eulamprus quoyii). We first staged 123 contests between size-matched males to investigate whether performance traits were important in determining contest outcome. In a second experiment, we established six breeding populations in large replicate semi-natural enclosures to estimate whether performance traits predicted reproductive success. Our results show that none of the performance measures were important in predicting contest outcome and were not generally strong predictors of reproductive success. However, our analyses suggest a complex fitness landscape driven by males adopting different alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs). We provide a rare test of the role performance plays in sexual selection and highlight the need to test common assumptions regarding the link between maximal performance and fitness. Our results suggest that performance traits may not necessarily be direct targets of sexual selection, but rather indirect targets through their integration with morphological and/or behavioural traits, highlighting a need for more explicit tests of the predicted links between performance and fitness.

How general is cognitive ability in non-human animals? A meta-analytical and multi-level reanalysis approach

General intelligence has been a topic of high interest for over a century. Traditionally, research on general intelligence was based on principal component analyses and other dimensionality reduction approaches. The advent of high-speed computing has provided alternative statistical tools that have been used to test predictions of human general intelligence. In comparison, research on general intelligence in non-human animals is in its infancy and still relies mostly on factor-analytical procedures. Here, we argue that dimensionality reduction, when incorrectly applied, can lead to spurious results and limit our understanding of ecological and evolutionary causes of variation in animal cognition. Using a meta-analytical approach, we show, based on 555 bivariate correlations, that the average correlation among cognitive abilities is low (r = 0.185; 95% CI: 0.087-0.287), suggesting relatively weak support for general intelligence in animals. We then use a case study with relatedness (genetic) data to demonstrate how analysing traits using mixed models, without dimensionality reduction, provides new insights into the structure of phenotypic variance among cognitive traits, and uncovers genetic associations that would be hidden otherwise. We hope this article will stimulate the use of alternative tools in the study of cognition and its evolution in animals.

Evolution, genes, and inter‐disciplinary personality research

Most commentaries welcomed an evolutionary genetic approach to personality, but several raised concerns about our integrative model. In response, we clarify the scientific status of evolutionary genetic theory and explain the plausibility and value of our evolutionary genetic model of personality, despite some shortcomings with the currently available theories and data. We also have a closer look at mate choice for personality traits, point to promising ways to assess evolutionarily relevant environmental factors and defend higher‐order personality domains and the g‐factor as the best units for evolutionary genetic analyses. Finally, we discuss which extensions of and alternatives to our model appear most fruitful, and end with a call for more inter‐disciplinary personality research grounded in evolutionary theory. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Population differences in the strength of sexual selection match relative weapon size in the Japanese rhinoceros beetle, Trypoxylus dichotomus (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae)†

Exaggerated weapons of sexual selection often diverge more rapidly and dramatically than other body parts, suggesting that relevant agents of selection may be discernible in contemporary populations. We examined the ecology, reproductive behavior, and strength of sexual selection on horn length in five recently diverged rhinoceros beetle (Trypoxylus dichotomus) populations that differ in relative horn size. Males with longer horns were better at winning fights in all locations, but the link between winning fights and mating success differed such that selection favored large males with long horns at the two long-horned populations, but was relaxed or nonexistent at the populations with relatively shorter horns. Observations of local habitat conditions and breeding ecology point to shifts in the relative abundance of feeding territories as the most likely cause of population differences in selection on male weapon size in this species. Comparisons of ecological conditions and selection strength across populations offer critical first steps toward meaningfully linking mating system dynamics, selection patterns, and diversity in sexually selected traits.

Trade-off between fecundity and survival generates stabilizing selection on gall size

Complex interactions within multitrophic communities are fundamental to the evolution of individual species that reside within them. One common outcome of species interactions are fitness trade-offs, where traits adaptive in some circumstances are maladaptive in others. Here, we identify a fitness trade-off between fecundity and survival in the cynipid wasp Callirhytis quercusbatatoides that induces multichambered galls on the stem of its host plant Quercus virginiana. We first quantified this trade-off in natural populations by documenting two relationships: a positive association between the trait gall size and fecundity, as larger galls contain more offspring, and a negative association between gall size and survival, as larger galls are attacked by birds at a higher rate. Next, we performed a field-based experimental evolution study where birds were excluded from the entire canopy of 11 large host trees for five years. As a result of the five-year release from avian predators, we observed a significant shift to larger galls per tree. Overall, our study demonstrates how two opposing forces of selection can generate stabilizing selection on a critical phenotypic trait in wild populations, and how traits can evolve rapidly in the predicted direction when conditions change.

The least effective pollinator principle: specialized morphology despite generalized ecology

The large body of work on the adaptation of plants to pollinators is still somewhat incomplete because most studies focus on one-to-one interactions. How will adaptation proceed in a multi-pollinator environment? According to Stebbins' Most Effective Pollinator Principle, 'the characteristics of the flower will be moulded by those pollinators that visit it most frequently and effectively.' To test this hypothesis, we studied the pollination biology of Pelargonium incrassatum (Geraniaceae) in the Namaqualand Region of Southern Africa. This species has a long floral tube and we expected its most important pollinator to have a long proboscis. Contrary to expectations, the most important pollinator was a short proboscid fly (a new species of Prosoeca), while Prosoeca peringueyi, which had a proboscis that matched the floral tube length, was a rare visitor. Consistent with the high degree of trait mismatching, we did not detect selection on tube length at most sites. The paradox of mismatching traits can be resolved by considering the strength of the trade-off involved. Adaptation to the rare species can apparently occur without incurring the cost of reduced pollination by the abundant species. Generally, species may often evolve specialized morphology if they do not incur the cost of ecological specialization.

Direction and magnitude of natural selection on body size differ among age-classes of seaward-migrating Pacific salmon

Due to the mediating role of body size in determining fitness, the "bigger-is-better" hypothesis still pervades evolutionary ecology despite evidence that natural selection on phenotypic traits varies in time and space. For Pacific salmon (genus Oncorhynchus), most individual studies quantify selection across a narrow range of sizes and ages; therefore, uncertainties remain concerning how selection on size may differ among diverse life histories. Here, we quantify the direction and magnitude of natural selection on body size among age-classes of multiple marine cohorts of O. nerka (sockeye salmon). Across four cohorts of seaward migrants, we calculated standardized selection differentials by comparing observed size distributions of out-migrating juvenile salmon to back-calculated smolt length from the scales of surviving, returning adults. Results reveal the magnitude of selection on size was very strong (>90th percentile compared to a database of 3,759 linear selection differentials) and consistent among years. However, the direction of selection on size consistently varied among age-classes. Selection was positive for fish migrating to sea after two years in freshwater (age 2) and in their first year of life (age 0), but negative for fish migrating after 1 year in freshwater (age 1). The absolute magnitude of selection was negatively correlated to mean ocean-entry timing, which may underpin negative selection favoring small age-1 fish, given associations between size and timing of seaward migration. Collectively, these results indicate that "bigger is not always better" in terms of survival and emphasize trade-offs that may exist between fitness components for organisms with similarly diverse migratory life histories.

Social network position experiences more variable selection than weaponry in wild subpopulations of forked fungus beetles

The phenotypic expression and fitness consequences of behaviours that are exhibited during social interactions are especially sensitive to their local social context. This context-dependence is expected to generate more variation in the sign and magnitude of selection on social behaviour than that experienced by static characters like morphology. Relatively few studies, however, have examined selection on behavioural traits in multiple populations. We estimated sexual selection in the wild to determine if the strength and form of selection on social phenotypes is more variable than that on morphology. We compared selection gradients on social network position, body size, and weaponry of male forked fungus beetles Bolitotherus cornutus as they influenced mating success across nine natural subpopulations. Male horn length consistently experienced positive sexual selection. However, the sign and magnitude of selection on individual measures of network centrality (strength and betweenness) differed significantly among subpopulations. Moreover, selection on social behaviours occurred at a local scale ('soft selection'), whereas selection on horn length occurred at the metapopulation scale ('hard selection'). These results indicate that an individual with a given social phenotype could experience different fitness consequences depending on the network it occupies. While individuals seem to be unable to escape the fitness effects of their morphology, they may have the potential to mediate the pressures of selection on behavioural phenotypes by moving among subpopulations or altering social connections within a network.

An estimator of the Opportunity for Selection that is independent of mean fitness

Variation among individuals in number of offspring (fitness, k) sets an upper limit to the evolutionary response to selection. This constraint is quantified by Crow's Opportunity for Selection (I), which is the variance in relative fitness (I = σ² _k /(u_k )² ). Crow's I has been widely used but remains controversial because it depends on mean offspring number in a sample ( k ¯ ). Here, I used a generalized Wright-Fisher model that allows for unequal probabilities of producing offspring to evaluate behavior of Crow's I and related indices under a wide range of sampling scenarios. Analytical and numerical results are congruent and show that rescaling the sample variance (s² _k ) to its expected value at a fixed k ¯ 2 removes dependence of I on mean offspring number, but the result still depends on choice of k ¯ 2 . A new index is introduced, Δ_I = Π- E(Î_drift ) = Π- 1/ k ¯ , which makes Î independent of sample k ¯ without the need for variance rescaling. Δ_I has a straightforward interpretation as the component of variance in relative fitness that exceeds that expected under a null model of random reproductive success. Δ_I can be used to directly compare estimates of the Opportunity for Selection for samples from different studies, different sexes, and different life stages.

Proximate and ultimate drivers of variation in bite force in the insular lizards Podarcis melisellensis and Podarcis sicula

Bite force is a key performance trait in lizards because biting is involved in many ecologically relevant tasks, including foraging, fighting and mating. Several factors have been suggested to impact bite force in lizards, such as head morphology (proximate factors), or diet, intraspecific competition and habitat characteristics (ultimate factors). However, these have been generally investigated separately and mostly at the interspecific level. Here we tested which factors drive variation in bite force at the population level and to what extent. Our study includes 20 populations of two closely related lacertid species, Podarcis melisellensis and Podarcis sicula, which inhabit islands in the Adriatic. We found that lizards with more forceful bites have relatively wider and taller heads, and consume more hard prey and plant material. Island isolation correlates with bite force, probably by driving resource availability. Bite force is only poorly explained by proxies of intraspecific competition. The linear distance from a large island and the proportion of difficult-to-reduce food items consumed are the ultimate factors that explain most of the variation in bite force. Our findings suggest that the way in which morphological variation affects bite force is species-specific, probably reflecting the different selective pressures operating on the two species.

Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species

Boreal forests are experiencing dramatic climate change, having warmed 1.0°-1.9°C over the last century. Yet forest regeneration practices are often still dictated by a fixed seed zone framework, in which seeds are both harvested from and planted into predefined areas. Our goal was to determine whether seedlings sourced from southern seed zones in Minnesota USA are already better adapted to northerly seed zones because of climate change. Bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra) seedlings from two seed zones (i.e., tree ecotypes) were planted into 16 sites in two northern seed zones and measured for 3 yr. Our hypotheses were threefold: (1) tree species with more southern geographic distributions would thrive in northern forests where climate has already warmed substantially, (2) southern ecotypes of these species would have higher survival and growth than the northern ecotype in northern environments, and (3) natural selection would favor seedlings that expressed phenotypic and phenological traits characteristic of trees sourced from the more southern seed zone. For both species, survival was high (>93%), and southern ecotypes expressed traits consistent with our climate adaptation hypotheses. Ecotypic differences were especially evident for red oak; the southern ecotype had had higher survival, lower specific leaf area (SLA), faster height and diameter growth, and extended leaf phenology relative to the northern ecotype. Bur oak results were weaker, but the southern ecotype also had earlier budburst and lower SLA than the northern ecotype. Models based on the fixed seed zones failed to explain seedling performance as well as those with continuous predictors (e.g., climate and geographical position), suggesting that plant adaptations within current seed zone delineations do align with changing climate conditions. Adding support for this conclusion, natural selection favored traits expressed by the more southern tree ecotypes. Collectively, these results suggest that state seed sourcing guidelines should be reexamined to permit plantings across seed zones, a form of assisted migration. More extensive experiments (i.e., provenance trails) are necessary to make species-specific seed transfer guidelines that account for climate trends while also considering the precise geographic origin of seed sources.

Metabolic rate, context-dependent selection, and the competition-colonization trade-off

Metabolism is linked with the pace‐of‐life, co‐varying with survival, growth, and reproduction. Metabolic rates should therefore be under strong selection and, if heritable, become less variable over time. Yet intraspecific variation in metabolic rates is ubiquitous, even after accounting for body mass and temperature. Theory predicts variable selection maintains trait variation, but field estimates of how selection on metabolism varies are rare. We use a model marine invertebrate to estimate selection on metabolic rates in the wild under different competitive environments. Fitness landscapes varied among environments separated by a few centimeters: interspecific competition selected for higher metabolism, and a faster pace‐of‐life, relative to competition‐free environments. Populations experience a mosaic of competitive regimes; we find metabolism mediates a competition‐colonization trade‐off across these regimes. Although high metabolic phenotypes possess greater competitive ability, in the absence of competitors, low metabolic phenotypes are better colonizers. Spatial heterogeneity and the variable selection on metabolic rates that it generates is likely to maintain variation in metabolic rate, despite strong selection in any single environment.

Sexual selection on size and shape in Japanese beetles (Popillia japonica)

The mobility hypothesis argues that species in which males compete for mates in scrambles often exhibit female-biased size dimorphism because smaller male body size should increase male mobility and success in searching for mates. Sexual dimorphism can be further exaggerated if fecundity or sexual selection concurrently selects for larger female size. Scramble competition can select for trait characteristics that optimize locomotion; for example, long and slender wings should be favored if aerial speed is important to mating success. I tested these predictions in the scrambling Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica), a female-biased size dimorphic insect pest that is invasive to North America. Multivariate selection analyses support the prediction that smaller body size and larger wings in males benefit their mating success. My analyses also revealed significant selection for larger wings in females but, contrary to prediction, direct sexual selection favors smaller body size in females. These results support the mobility hypothesis and partially explain the evolution of female-biased size dimorphism in this species. Sexual selection favored rounder bodies in females and more tapered bodies in males, whereas, in both sexes, the effect of wing shape appears less important to fitness than wing size.

Additive and mostly adaptive plastic responses of gene expression to multiple stress in Tribolium castaneum

Gene expression is known to be highly responsive to the environment and important for adjustment of metabolism but there is also growing evidence that differences in gene regulation contribute to species divergence and differences among locally adapted populations. However, most studies so far investigated populations when divergence had already occurred. Selection acting on expression levels at the onset of adaptation to an environmental change has not been characterized. Understanding the mechanisms is further complicated by the fact that environmental change is often multivariate, meaning that organisms are exposed to multiple stressors simultaneously with potentially interactive effects. Here we use a novel approach by combining fitness and whole-transcriptome data in a large-scale experiment to investigate responses to drought, heat and their combination in Tribolium castaneum. We found that fitness was reduced by both stressors and their combined effect was almost additive. Expression data showed that stressor responses were acting independently and did not interfere physiologically. Since we measured expression and fitness within the same individuals, we were able to estimate selection on gene expression levels. We found that variation in fitness can be attributed to gene expression variation and that selection pressures were environment dependent and opposite between control and stress conditions. We could further show that plastic responses of expression were largely adaptive, i.e. in the direction that should increase fitness.

Egg-induced changes to sperm phenotypes shape patterns of multivariate selection on ejaculates

Sperm cells exhibit extraordinary phenotypic diversity and rapid rates of evolution, yet the adaptive value of most sperm traits remains equivocal. Recent findings suggest that to understand how selection targets ejaculates, we must recognize that female-imposed physiological conditions often alter sperm phenotypes. These phenotypic changes may influence the relationships among sperm traits and their association with fitness. Here, we show that chemical substances released by eggs (known to modify sperm physiology and behaviour) alter patterns of selection on a suite of sperm traits in the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. We use multivariate selection analyses to characterize linear and nonlinear selection acting on sperm traits in (a) seawater alone and (b) seawater containing egg-derived chemicals (egg water). Our analyses revealed that nonlinear selection on canonical axes of multiple traits (notably sperm velocity, sperm linearity and percentage of motile sperm) was the most important form of selection overall, but importantly these patterns were only evident when sperm phenotypes were measured in egg water. These findings reveal the subtle way that females can alter patterns of selection, with the implication that overlooking environmentally moderated changes to sperm, may result in erroneous interpretations of how selection targets phenotypic (co)variation in sperm traits.

Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we propose an approach based on our knowledge of the causal relationships between climate, adaptive traits, and fitness to further these questions. This approach relies on a sensitivity analysis of the process‐based model phenofit, which mathematically formalizes these causal relationships, to predict fitness landscapes and optimal budburst dates along elevation gradients in three major European tree species. Variation in the overall shape of the fitness landscape and resulting directional selection gradients were found to be mainly driven by temperature variation. The optimal budburst date was delayed with elevation, while the range of dates allowing high fitness narrowed and the maximal fitness at the optimum decreased. We also found that the plasticity of the budburst date should allow tracking the spatial variation in the optimal date, but with variable mismatch depending on the species, ranging from negligible mismatch in fir, moderate in beech, to large in oak. Phenotypic plasticity would therefore be more adaptive in fir and beech than in oak. In all species, we predicted stronger directional selection for earlier budburst date at higher elevation. The weak selection on budburst date in fir should result in the evolution of negligible genetic divergence, while beech and oak would evolve counter‐gradient variation, where genetic and environmental effects are in opposite directions. Our study suggests that theoretical models should consider how whole fitness landscapes change with the environment. The approach introduced here has the potential to be developed for other traits and species to explore how populations will adapt to climate change.

The strength and pattern of natural selection on gene expression in rice

Levels of gene expression underpin organismal phenotypes^1,2, but the nature of selection that acts on gene expression and its role in adaptive evolution remain unknown^1,2. Here we assayed gene expression in rice (Oryza sativa)³, and used phenotypic selection analysis to estimate the type and strength of selection on the levels of more than 15,000 transcripts^4,5. Variation in most transcripts appears (nearly) neutral or under very weak stabilizing selection in wet paddy conditions (with median standardized selection differentials near zero), but selection is stronger under drought conditions. Overall, more transcripts are conditionally neutral (2.83%) than are antagonistically pleiotropic⁶ (0.04%), and transcripts that display lower levels of expression and stochastic noise^7-9 and higher levels of plasticity⁹ are under stronger selection. Selection strength was further weakly negatively associated with levels of cis-regulation and network connectivity⁹. Our multivariate analysis suggests that selection acts on the expression of photosynthesis genes^4,5, but that the efficacy of selection is genetically constrained under drought conditions¹⁰. Drought selected for earlier flowering^11,12 and a higher expression of OsMADS18 (Os07g0605200), which encodes a MADS-box transcription factor and is a known regulator of early flowering¹³-marking this gene as a drought-escape gene^11,12. The ability to estimate selection strengths provides insights into how selection can shape molecular traits at the core of gene action.

Phenotypic selection mosaic for flower length influenced by geographically varying hawkmoth pollinator proboscis length and abiotic environment

Biotic and abiotic context may affect the intensity of interspecific interactions and subsequently drive locally particular phenotypic selection patterns on interacting traits. We evaluated the geographical variation of matching traits of the brush-type flowers of Caesalpinia gilliesii and of the proboscis length of its guild of hawkmoth pollinators, as well as their relationship with environmental variables. We assessed the geographical variation of interacting traits (style and filament vs mean proboscis length of the guild of hawkmoths) across seven populations and estimated phenotypic selection on the plant side. Interacting traits showed similar relationships with environmental variables. Phenotypic selection on the plant side was influenced by proboscis length and by environmental conditions. Mean proboscis length of the guild was shorter than previously recorded for the same study area, thus probably shifting the selective optima of flower length. We observed two presumptive coevolutionary cold spots where one-sided negative directional selection is acting on style length. The lack of selection on the pollinator side should be further confirmed. We provided joint evidence, mostly lacking, about the geographical variation of selective pressures on the plant side associated with both proboscis length and abiotic conditions. We suggest that recent environmental change may be shifting floral length optima.

Genome-wide signatures of environmental adaptation in European aspen (Populus tremula) under current and future climate conditions

Future climate change has been predicted to disrupt local adaptation in many perennial plants, such as forest trees, but the magnitude and location of these effects are thus far poorly understood. Here, we assess local adaptation to current climate in European aspen (Populus tremula) by using environmental association analyses to identify genetic variants associated with two representative climate variables describing current day variation in temperature and precipitation. We also analysed patterns of genetic differentiation between southern and northern populations and observe that regions of high genetic differentiation are enriched for SNPs that are significantly associated with climate. Using variants associated with climate, we examined patterns of isolation by distance and environment and used spatial modelling to predict the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to two scenarios of future climate change. We show that climate conditions at a northern reference site will correspond to climate conditions experienced by current day populations located 4-8 latitude degrees further south. By assessing the relationship between phenotypic traits and vegetative fitness, we also demonstrate that southern populations harbour genetic variation that likely would be adaptive further north under both climate change scenarios. Current day populations at the lagging edge of the distribution in Sweden can therefore serve as sources for introducing adaptive alleles onto northern populations, but the likelihood of this largely depends on naturally occurring levels of gene flow.

Male morphological traits are heritable but do not predict reproductive success in a sexually-dimorphic primate

Sexual selection favours traits that increase reproductive success via increased competitive ability, attractiveness, or both. Male rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) morphological traits are likely to reflect the effects of multiple sexual selection pressures. Here, we use a quantitative genetic approach to investigate the production and maintenance of variation in male rhesus macaque morphometric traits which may be subject to sexual selection. We collected measurements of body size, canine length, and fat, from 125 male and 21 female free-ranging rhesus macaques on Cayo Santiago. We also collected testis volumes from males. We used a genetic pedigree to calculate trait heritability, to investigate potential trait trade-offs, and to estimate selection gradients. We found that variation in most male morphometric traits was heritable, but found no evidence of trait trade-offs nor that traits predicted reproductive success. Our results suggest that male rhesus macaque morphometric traits are either not under selection, or are under mechanisms of sexual selection that we could not test (e.g. balancing selection). In species subject to complex interacting mechanisms of selection, measures of body size, weaponry, and testis volume may not increase reproductive success via easily-testable mechanisms such as linear directional selection.

Selection on multiple sexual signals in two Central and Eastern European populations of the barn swallow

Variation in intensity and targets of sexual selection on multiple traits has been suggested to play a major role in promoting phenotypic differentiation between populations, although the divergence in selection may depend on year, local conditions or age. In this study, we quantified sexual selection for two putative sexual signals across two Central and East European barn swallow (Hirundo rustica rustica) populations from Czech Republic and Romania over multiple years. We then related these differences in selection to variation in sexual characters among barn swallow populations. Our results show that tail length and ventral coloration vary between populations, sexes, and age classes (first-time breeders vs. experienced birds). We found that selection on tail length was stronger in first-time breeders than in experienced birds and in males than in females in the Romanian population, while these differences between age groups and sexes were weak in Czech birds. We suggest that the populational difference in selection on tail length might be related to the differences in breeding conditions. Our results show that ventral coloration is darker (i.e., has lower brightness) in the Romanian than in the Czech population, and in experienced birds and males compared with first-time breeders and females, respectively. The sexual difference in ventral coloration may suggest sexual selection on this trait, which is supported by the significant directional selection of ventral coloration in first-time breeding males on laying date. However, after controlling for the confounding effect of wing length and tarsus length, the partial directional selection gradient on this trait turned nonsignificant, suggesting that the advantage of dark ventral coloration in early breeding birds is determined by the correlated traits of body size. These findings show that ventral coloration may be advantageous over the breeding season, but the underlying mechanism of this relationship is not clarified.

On the evolution of carry-over effects

The environment experienced early in life often affects the traits that are developed after an individual has transitioned into new life stages and environments. Because the phenotypes induced by earlier environments are then screened by later ones, these 'carry-over effects' influence fitness outcomes across the entire life cycle. While the last two decades have witnessed an explosion of studies documenting the occurrence of carry-over effects, little attention has been given to how they adapt and diversify. To aid future research in this area, we present a framework for the evolution of carry-over effects. Carry-over effects can evolve in two ways. First, the expression of traits later in life may become more or less dependent on the developmental processes of earlier stages (e.g., 'adaptive decoupling'). Genetic correlations between life stages then either strengthen or weaken. Alternatively, those influential developmental processes that begin early in life may become more or less sensitive to that earlier environment. Here, plasticity changes in all the traits that share those developmental pathways across the whole life cycle. Adaptive evolution of a carry-over effect is governed by selection on the induced phenotypes in the later stage, and also by selection on any developmentally linked traits in the earlier life stage. When these selective pressures conflict, the evolution of the carry-over effect will be biased towards maximizing performance in the life stage with stronger selection. Because life stages often contribute unequally to total fitness, the strength of selection in any one stage depends on: (a) the relationship between the traits and the stage-specific fitness components (e.g., juvenile survival, adult mating success), and (b) the reproductive value of the life stage. Considering the evolution of carry-over effects reveals several intriguing features of the evolution of life histories and phenotypic plasticity more generally. For instance, carry-over effects that manifest as maladaptive plasticity in one life stage may represent an adaptive strategy for maximizing fitness in stages with stronger selection. Additionally, adaptation to novel environments encountered early in the life cycle may be faster in the presence of carry-over effects that influence sexually selected traits.