Global patterns in monthly activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus: a systematic analysis

Decoding viral and host microRNA signatures in airway-derived biosamples: Insights for biomarker discovery in viral respiratory infections

The global public health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the global concern regarding viral respiratory tract infections. Despite their considerable impact on health, society and the economy, effective management of these conditions remains a significant challenge. Integrating high-throughput analyses is pivotal for early detection, prognostication of adverse outcomes, elucidating pathogenetic pathways and developing therapeutic approaches. In recent years, microRNAs (miRNAs), a subset of small noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs), have emerged as promising tools for molecular phenotyping. Current evidence suggests that miRNAs could serve as innovative biological markers, aiding in informed medical decision-making. The cost-effective quantification of miRNAs in standardized samples using techniques routinely employed in clinical laboratories has become feasible. In this context, samples obtained from the airways represent a valuable source of information due to their direct exposure to the infectious agent and host response within the respiratory tract. This review explores viral and host miRNA profiling in airway-derived biosamples as a source of molecular information to guide patient management, with a specific emphasis on SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Efficacy and Safety of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Prefusion F Protein Vaccine (RSVPreF3 OA) in Older Adults Over 2 RSV Seasons

BACKGROUND

The adjuvanted RSV prefusion F protein-based vaccine (RSVPreF3 OA) was efficacious against RSV-related lower respiratory tract disease (RSV-LRTD) in ≥60-years-olds over 1 RSV season. We evaluated efficacy and safety of 1 RSVPreF3 OA dose and of 2 RSVPreF3 OA doses given 1 year apart against RSV-LRTD over 2 RSV seasons post-dose 1.

METHODS

In this phase 3, blinded trial, ≥60-year-olds were randomized (1:1) to receive RSVPreF3 OA or placebo pre-season 1. RSVPreF3 OA recipients were re-randomized (1:1) to receive a second RSVPreF3 OA dose (RSV_revaccination group) or placebo (RSV_1dose group) pre-season 2; participants who received placebo pre-season 1 received placebo pre-season 2 (placebo group). Efficacy of both vaccine regimens against RSV-LRTD was evaluated over 2 seasons combined (confirmatory secondary objective, success criterion: lower limits of 2-sided CIs around efficacy estimates >20%).

RESULTS

The efficacy analysis comprised 24 967 participants (RSV_1dose: 6227; RSV_revaccination: 6242; placebo: 12 498). Median efficacy follow-up was 17.8 months. Efficacy over 2 seasons of 1 RSVPreF3 OA dose was 67.2% (97.5% CI: 48.2-80.0%) against RSV-LRTD and 78.8% (95% CI: 52.6-92.0%) against severe RSV-LRTD. Efficacy over 2 seasons of a first dose followed by revaccination was 67.1% (97.5% CI: 48.1-80.0%) against RSV-LRTD and 78.8% (95% CI: 52.5-92.0%) against severe RSV-LRTD. Reactogenicity/safety of the revaccination dose were similar to dose 1.

CONCLUSIONS

One RSVPreF3 OA dose was efficacious against RSV-LRTD over 2 RSV seasons in ≥60-year-olds. Revaccination 1 year post-dose 1 was well tolerated but did not seem to provide additional efficacy benefit in the overall study population.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04886596.

High Uptake of Respiratory Syncitial Virus Prevention for Neonates in a Military Treatment Facility

We investigated the uptake of nirsevimab for infants and RSVPreF vaccine for pregnant persons as measures for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention during an infant's birth hospitalization in a military treatment facility. We found >85% uptake between October 2023 to February 2024. These data may aid health systems plan for future RSV seasons.

Impact of Nirsevimab Immunization on Pediatric Hospitalization Rates: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (2024)

A systematic review with a meta-analysis was performed to gather available evidence on the effectiveness of monoclonal antibody nirsevimab in the prevention of lower respiratory tract diseases (LRTDs) due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in children and newborns (CRD42024540669). Studies reporting on real-world experience and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were searched for in three databases (PubMed, Embase, and Scopus) until 1 May 2024. Our analysis included five RCTs, seven real-world reports, and one official report from the health authorities. Due to the cross-reporting of RCTs and the inclusion of multiple series in a single study, the meta-analysis was performed on 45,238 infants from 19 series. The meta-analysis documented a pooled immunization efficacy of 88.40% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) from 84.70 to 91.21) on the occurrence of hospital admission due to RSV, with moderate heterogeneity (I2 24.3%, 95% CI 0.0 to 56.6). Immunization efficacy decreased with the overall length of the observation time (Spearman's r = -0.546, p = 0.016), and the risk of breakthrough infections was substantially greater in studies with observation times ≥150 days compared to studies lasting <150 days (risk ratio 2.170, 95% CI 1.860 to 2.532). However, the effect of observation time in meta-regression analysis was conflicting (β = 0.001, 95% CI -0.001 to 0.002; p = 0.092). In conclusion, the delivery of nirsevimab was quite effective in preventing hospital admissions due to LRTDs. However, further analyses of the whole RSV season are required before tailoring specific public health interventions.

Simultaneous detection and characterization of common respiratory pathogens in wastewater through genomic sequencing

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 has given insight into the evolution and epidemiology of the virus and its variant lineages during the COVID-19 pandemic. Expanding this approach to include a range of respiratory pathogens can better inform public health preparedness for potential outbreaks and epidemics. Here, we simultaneously sequenced 38 pathogens including influenza viruses, coronaviruses and bocaviruses, to examine the abundance and seasonality of respiratory pathogens in urban wastewater. We deployed a targeted bait capture method and short-read sequencing (Illumina Respiratory Virus Oligos Panel; RVOP) on composite wastewater samples from 8 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and one associated hospital site. By combining seasonal sampling with whole genome sequencing, we were able to concurrently detect and characterise a range of common respiratory pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, adenovirus and parainfluenza virus. We demonstrated that 38 respiratory pathogens can be detected at low abundances year-round, that hospital pathogen diversity is higher in winter vs. summer sampling events, and that significantly more viruses are detected in raw influent compared to treated effluent samples. Finally, we compared detection sensitivity of RT-qPCR vs. next generation sequencing for SARS-CoV-2, enteroviruses, influenza A/B, and respiratory syncytial viruses. We conclude that both should be used in combination; RT-qPCR allowed accurate quantification, whilst genomic sequencing detected pathogens at lower abundance. We demonstrate the valuable role of wastewater genomic surveillance and its contribution to the field of wastewater-based epidemiology, gaining rapid understanding of the seasonal presence and persistence for common respiratory pathogens. By simultaneously monitoring seasonal trends and early warning signs of many viruses circulating in communities, public health agencies can implement targeted prevention and rapid response plans.

Parent's perception of respiratory syncytial virus and subsequent wheezing burden: A multi-country cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is the leading cause of hospitalization in infants. RSV bronchiolitis is associated with an increased risk of subsequent wheezing. We aimed to document the parents' perception of the link between RSV infection and subsequent wheezing, wheezing-related healthcare and family resources use, and its impact on family daily life.

METHODS

This cross-sectional online survey enrolled 1200 parents with at least one child ≤6y living in the United States, United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy. Children diagnosed with RSV bronchiolitis before age of 2 years were included in the RSV group, and those never diagnosed with RSV bronchiolitis in the Reference group.

RESULTS

The odds of wheezing were 4.5-fold (95%CI 3.5-5.9) higher in the RSV than in the Reference group. The odds increased to 7.7-fold (95%CI 5.4-11.1) among children who were hospitalized, and 9-fold (95%CI 5.1-16.6) among those admitted to pediatric intensive care with RSV bronchiolitis. Similar trends were observed across all countries. In total, 57% of parents reported their child's wheezing to have moderate to severe impact on their emotional well-being, and 53% on their daily life activities and/or social life. 64% of parents reported moderate-severe impact of wheezing on child's quality of sleep and 49% and 46% reported a moderate-severe impact on their children's emotional well-being and physical activities.

CONCLUSIONS

This survey suggests an association between RSV infection and subsequent wheezing in children across different countries. Wheezing, especially in association with RSV infection, was associated with increased healthcare utilization and costs, and significantly impacted parents' and children daily life.

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality, transmission zones, and implications for seasonal prevention strategy in China: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) represents a substantial global health challenge, with a disproportionately high disease burden in low-income and middle-income countries. RSV exhibits seasonality in most areas globally, and a comprehensive understanding of within-country variations in RSV seasonality could help to define the timing of RSV immunisation programmes. This study focused on China, and aimed to describe the geographical distribution of RSV seasonality, identify distinct RSV transmission zones, and evaluate the potential suitability of a seasonal RSV prevention strategy.

METHODS

We did a systematic analysis of RSV seasonality in China, with use of data on RSV activity extracted from a systematic review of studies published on Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data, Chongqing VIP Information, and SinoMed, from database inception until May 5, 2023. We included studies of any design in China reporting at least 25 RSV cases, which aggregated RSV case number by calendar month or week at the province level, and with data covering at least 12 consecutive months before the year 2020 (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic). Studies that used only serology for RSV testing were excluded. We also included weekly data on RSV activity from open-access online databases of the Taiwan National Infection Disease Statistics System and Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection, applying the same eligiblity requirements. Across all datasets, we excluded data on RSV activity from Jan 1, 2020, onwards. We estimated RSV seasonal epidemic onset and duration using the annual average percentage (AAP) approach, and summarised seasonality at the provincial level. We used Pearson's partial correlation analysis to assess the correlation between RSV season duration and the latitude and longitude of the individual provinces. To define transmission zones, we used two independent approaches, an infant-passive-immunisation-driven approach (the moving interval approach, 6-month interval) and a data-driven approach (k-means), to identify groups of provinces with similar RSV seasonality. The systematic review was registered on PROSPERO, CRD42022376993.

FINDINGS

A total of 157 studies were included along with the two online datasets, reporting data on 194 596 RSV cases over 442 study-years (covering the period from Jan 1, 1993 to Dec 31, 2019), from 52 sites in 23 provinces. Among 21 provinces with sufficient data (≥100 reported cases), the median duration of RSV seasonal epidemics was 4·6 months (IQR 4·1-5·4), with a significant latitudinal gradient (r=-0·69, p<0·0007), in that provinces on or near the Tropic of Cancer had the longest epidemic duration. We found no correlation between longitude and epidemic duration (r=-0·15, p=0·53). 15 (71%) of 21 provinces had RSV epidemics from November to March. 13 (62%) of 21 provinces had clear RSV seasonality (epidemic duration ≤5 months). The moving interval approach categorised the 21 provinces into four RSV transmission zones. The first zone, consisting of five provinces (Fujian, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Yunnan), was assessed as unsuitable for seasonal RSV immunisation strategies; the other three zones were considered suitable for seasonal RSV immunisation strategies with the optimal start month varying between September (Hebei), October (Anhui, Chongqing, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanghai, Sichuan, and Xinjiang), and November (Beijing, Gansu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Zhejiang). The k-means approach identified two RSV transmission zones, primarily differentiated by whether the province was on or near the Tropic of Cancer (Fujian, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Yunan, and Hunan) or not (the remaining 15 provinces).

INTERPRETATION

Although substantial variations in RSV seasonality were observed across provinces of China, our study identified distinct transmission zones with shared RSV circulating patterns. These findings could have important implications for decision making on RSV passive immunisation strategy. Furthermore, the methodological framework in this study for defining RSV seasons and identifying RSV transmission zones is potentially applicable to other countries or regions.

FUNDING

Nanjing Medical University.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years

Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Influenza Infections in Children in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 2015-2021

BACKGROUND

Data available for RSV and influenza infections among children < 2 years in Mongolia are limited. We present data from four districts of Ulaanbaatar from April 2015 to June 2021.

METHODS

This study was nested in an enhanced surveillance project evaluating pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) impact on the incidence of hospitalized lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs). Our study was restricted to children aged < 2 years with arterial O2 saturation < 93% and children with radiological pneumonia. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs collected at admission were tested for RSV and influenza using qRT-PCR. NP swabs of all patients with radiological pneumonia and of a subset of randomly selected NP swabs were tested for S. pneumoniae (S.p.) by qPCR and for serotypes by culture and DNA microarray.

RESULTS

Among 5705 patients, 2113 (37.0%) and 386 (6.8%) had RSV and influenza infections, respectively. Children aged 2-6 months had a higher percentage of very severe RSV infection compared to those older than 6 months (42.2% versus 31.4%, p-value Fisher's exact = 0.001). S.p. carriage was detected in 1073/2281 (47.0%) patients. Among S.p. carriage cases, 363/1073 (33.8%) had S.p. and RSV codetection, and 82/1073 (7.6%) had S.p. and influenza codetection. S.p. codetection with RSV/influenza was not associated with more severe LRTIs, compared to only RSV/influenza cases.

CONCLUSION

In Mongolia, RSV is an important pathogen causing more severe LRTI in children under 6 months of age. Codetection of RSV or influenza virus and S.p. was not associated with increased severity.

Disrupted Seasonality of Respiratory Viruses: Retrospective Analysis of Pediatric Hospitalizations in Italy from 2019 to 2023

This multicenter study in Italian hospitals highlights the epidemiologic disruptions in the circulation of the 5 main respiratory viruses from 2019 to 2023. Our data reveal a resurgence of respiratory syncytial virus and influenza during the 2022-2023 winter season, with an earlier peak in cases for both viruses, emphasizing the importance of timely monitoring.

The increase of bronchiolitis severity in the 2022-2023 season in an Italian tertiary children's hospital: An isolated phenomenon or a warning sign?

AIM

Recent literature has shown epidemiological changes in bronchiolitis with an increased incidence in the post-SARS-CoV-2 pandemic period but reports regarding disease severity are conflicting. We aimed to describe the epidemiology, disease severity, and microbiology of bronchiolitis during the 2022-2023 cold season compared to the previous 5 years.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective observational study at IRCCS Gaslini, Italy, included all children aged 0-2 years hospitalized for bronchiolitis from 1 September 2017 to 31 August 2023. Findings from the 2022-2023 season were compared to the previous 5 years.

RESULTS

We observed a statistically significant increase in the 2022-2023 season in the absolute number of bronchiolitis admissions. Children who required mechanical ventilation (MV) dramatically increased from a total of seven patients in the previous five seasons to 17 in the 2022-2023 season alone (p = .001). All other severity parameters significantly increased: the need for respiratory support (p = .002), the median length of stay (5 days vs. 4 days, p = .001), and the median duration of respiratory support (4 days vs. 3 days, p = .016).

CONCLUSIONS

We report a substantial increase in the severity of bronchiolitis in the season 2022-2023 with a remarkable number of previously healthy infants requiring MV. Further studies are needed to confirm whether our findings are an isolated phenomenon or part of a true global trend. Health systems need to be prepared and protective preventive measures should be implemented for all newborns.

Global Seasonal Activities of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Before the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Systematic Review

Varied seasonal patterns of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) have been reported worldwide. We conducted a systematic review on articles identified in PubMed reporting RSV seasonality based on data collected before 1 January 2020. RSV seasonal patterns were examined by geographic location, calendar month, analytic method, and meteorological factors including temperature and absolute humidity. Correlation and regression analyses were conducted to explore the relationship between RSV seasonality and study methods and characteristics of study locations. RSV seasons were reported in 209 articles published in 1973-2023 for 317 locations in 77 countries. Regular RSV seasons were similarly reported in countries in temperate regions, with highly variable seasons identified in subtropical and tropical countries. Longer durations of RSV seasons were associated with a higher daily average mean temperature and daily average mean absolute humidity. The global seasonal patterns of RSV provided important information for optimizing interventions against RSV infection.

Beyond the sine wave: unveiling climate-driven baseline mortality cycles

The relationship between temperature and mortality is well-established, with higher mortality rates occurring in moderate climates during winter. Studies on COVID-19 and influenza-related excess deaths often assume a sine-like wave pattern for baseline mortality. This study aims to assess the accuracy of this approximation in capturing the observed mortality pattern and explore its linkage with climate. Weekly mortality data from European regions (2000-2019) were modeled using the seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on Loess. Cycles were grouped into clusters, and underlying trends were extracted using principal component analysis. Generalized linear models assuming a sine-like pattern were used to test predictive value. Cluster analysis divided the regional cycles approximately into continental and temperate climate regions, further subdivided into oceanic and Mediterranean. While the continental region exhibited a sine-like mortality pattern, it displayed modest deviations that compounded further south. The period of elevated winter mortality became shorter but more intense, while decreased summer mortality became more pronounced yet delayed. This study improves weekly estimations of excess mortality models by providing enhanced baselines. The deviation from the sine-like approximation mirrors the idealized outbreak pattern from epidemiological models with sharper surges and more gradual declines. The results point to winter infections, impacted by acquired immunity and weather conditions, as the primary drivers of fluctuations in mortality. In warmer regions, there is an apparent shift toward a lower number of overall infections within a compressed time span.

The disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus in older adults

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To highlight the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease burden and the current developments and challenges in RSV prevention for older adults ≥60 years through analysis of RSV epidemiology and the effectiveness of emerging vaccines.

RECENT FINDINGS

In industrialized countries, RSV incidence rates and hospitalization rates among older adults are estimated to be 600.7 cases per 100 000 person-years and 157 hospitalizations per 100 000 person-years, respectively. Yet, accurately determining RSV morbidity and mortality in older adults is challenging, thus resulting in substantially under-estimating the disease burden. The in-hospital fatality rates vary substantially with age and geographies, and can be as high as 9.1% in developing countries. Two promising RSV vaccines for the elderly have been approved, demonstrating efficacies of up to 94.1%, signifying considerable advancement in RSV prevention. However, concerns over potential side effects remain.

SUMMARY

RSV is associated with a significant burden in older adults. While the landscape of RSV prevention in older adults is promising with the licensure of vaccines from two companies, current trial data underscore the need for additional studies. Addressing the real-world effectiveness of these vaccines, understanding potential rare side effects, and ensuring broad inclusivity in future trials are crucial steps to maximize their potential benefits.

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on community non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections in preschool children

BACKGROUND

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic were mainly studied for severe outcomes. Among children, most of the burden of respiratory infections is related to infections which are not medically attended. The perspective on infections in the community setting is necessary to understand the effects of the pandemic on non-pharmaceutical interventions.

METHODS

In the unique prospective LoewenKIDS cohort study, we compared the true monthly incidence of self-reported acute respiratory infections (ARI) in about 350 participants (aged 3-4 years old) between October 2019 to March 2020 (pre-pandemic period) and October 2020 to March 2021 (pandemic period). Parents reported children's symptoms using a diary. Parents were asked to take a nasal swab of their child during all respiratory symptoms. We analysed 718 swabs using Multiplex PCR for 25 common respiratory viruses and bacteria.

RESULTS

During the pre-pandemic period, on average 44.6% (95% CI: 39.5-49.8%) of children acquired at least one ARI per month compared to 19.9% (95% CI: 11.1-28.7%) during the pandemic period (Incidence Rate Ratio = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.41-0.54). The detection of influenza virus decreased absolute by 96%, respiratory syncytial virus by 65%, metapneumovirus by 95%, parainfluenza virus by 100%, human enterovirus by 96% and human bocavirus by 70% when comparing the pre-pandemic to the pandemic period. However, rhinoviruses were nearly unaffected by NPI. Co-detection (detection of more than one virus in a single symptomatic swab) was common in the pre-pandemic period (222 of 390 samples with viral detection; 56.9%) and substantially less common during the pandemic period (46 of 216 samples; 21.3%).

CONCLUSION

Non-pharmaceutical interventions strongly reduced the incidence of all respiratory infections in preschool children but did not affect rhinovirus.

Characterising the changes in RSV epidemiology in Beijing, China during 2015-2023: results from a prospective, multi-centre, hospital-based surveillance and serology study

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has posed substantial morbidity and mortality burden to young children and older adults globally. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was reported to have altered RSV epidemiology and could have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies. We aimed to compare RSV epidemiology in different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic with the pre-pandemic period by leveraging epidemiological, molecular, and serological data collected from a prospective respiratory pathogen surveillance and serology study.

Methods

This study was based on the data during July 1, 2015 to November 30, 2023 from the Respiratory Pathogen Surveillance System (RPSS), a sentinel-hospital based surveillance system of acute respiratory infections consisting of 35 hospitals that represent residents of all ages from all 16 districts in Beijing, China. RSV infection status was tested by RT-PCR and gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis was conducted among the identified RSV strains. We further supplemented RPSS data with three serology surveys conducted during 2017-2023 that tested RSV IgG levels from serum specimens. RSV detection rate was calculated by calendar month and compared across RSV seasons (defined as the July 1 through June 30 of the following year). RSV IgG positivity proportion was calculated by quarter of the year and was correlated with quarterly aggregated RSV detection rate for understanding the relationship between infection and immunity at the population level.

Findings

Overall, a total of 52,931 respiratory specimens were collected and tested over the study period. RSV detection rates ranged from 1.24% (94/7594) in the 2017-2018 season to 2.80% (219/7824) in the 2018-2019 season, and from 1.06% (55/5165) in the 2022-2023 season to 2.98% (147/4938) in the 2021-2022 season during the pre-pandemic and pandemic period, respectively. ON1 and BA9 remained the predominant genotypes during the pandemic period; no novel RSV strains were identified. RSV circulation followed a winter-months seasonal pattern in most seasons. One exception was the 2020-2021 season when an extensive year-round circulation was observed, possibly associated with partial relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The other exception was the 2022-2023 season when very low RSV activity was observed during the usual winter months (possibly due to the concurrent local COVID-19 epidemic), and followed by an out-of-season resurgence in the spring, with RSV detection persisting to the end of the study period (November 2023). During the two seasons above, we noted an age-group related asynchrony in the RSV detection rate; the RSV detection rate in young children remained similar (or even increased with borderline significance; 43/594, 7.24%, and 42/556, 7.55% vs 292/5293, 5.52%; P = 0.10 and P = 0.06, respectively) compared with the pre-pandemic seasons whereas the detection rate in older adults decreased significantly (8/1779, 0.45%, and 3/2021, 0.15% vs 160/10,348, 1.55%; P < 0.001 in two comparisons). Results from serology surveys showed significantly declined RSV IgG positivity in the 2022-2023 season compared to the pre-pandemic seasons (9.32%, 29/311 vs 20.16%, 100/496; P < 0.001); older adults had significantly higher RSV IgG positivity than young children in both pre-pandemic and pandemic periods (P values < 0.001).

Interpretation

Our study documented the trajectory of RSV detection along with the changes in the stringency of NPIs, measured IgG positivity, and local COVID-19 epidemics. The findings suggest the interplay between contact patterns, immunity dynamics, and SARS-CoV-2 infection in shaping the RSV epidemics of population of different ages. These findings provide novel insights into the potential drivers of RSV circulating patterns and have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies.

Funding

The High-qualified Public Health Professionals Development Project, Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research, and the Public Health Personnel Training Support Program.

Global disease burden of and risk factors for acute lower respiratory infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus in preterm infants and young children in 2019: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated and individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Infants and young children born prematurely are at high risk of severe acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In this study, we aimed to assess the global disease burden of and risk factors for RSV-associated ALRI in infants and young children born before 37 weeks of gestation.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregated data from studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2021, identified from MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health, and individual participant data shared by the Respiratory Virus Global Epidemiology Network on respiratory infectious diseases. We estimated RSV-associated ALRI incidence in community, hospital admission, in-hospital mortality, and overall mortality among children younger than 2 years born prematurely. We conducted two-stage random-effects meta-regression analyses accounting for chronological age groups, gestational age bands (early preterm, <32 weeks gestational age [wGA], and late preterm, 32 to <37 wGA), and changes over 5-year intervals from 2000 to 2019. Using individual participant data, we assessed perinatal, sociodemographic, and household factors, and underlying medical conditions for RSV-associated ALRI incidence, hospital admission, and three severity outcome groups (longer hospital stay [>4 days], use of supplemental oxygen and mechanical ventilation, or intensive care unit admission) by estimating pooled odds ratios (ORs) through a two-stage meta-analysis (multivariate logistic regression and random-effects meta-analysis). This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021269742.

FINDINGS

We included 47 studies from the literature and 17 studies with individual participant-level data contributed by the participating investigators. We estimated that, in 2019, 1 650 000 (95% uncertainty range [UR] 1 350 000-1 990 000) RSV-associated ALRI episodes, 533 000 (385 000-730 000) RSV-associated hospital admissions, 3050 (1080-8620) RSV-associated in-hospital deaths, and 26 760 (11 190-46 240) RSV-attributable deaths occurred in preterm infants worldwide. Among early preterm infants, the RSV-associated ALRI incidence rate and hospitalisation rate were significantly higher (rate ratio [RR] ranging from 1·69 to 3·87 across different age groups and outcomes) than for all infants born at any gestational age. In the second year of life, early preterm infants and young children had a similar incidence rate but still a significantly higher hospitalisation rate (RR 2·26 [95% UR 1·27-3·98]) compared with all infants and young children. Although late preterm infants had RSV-associated ALRI incidence rates similar to that of all infants younger than 1 year, they had higher RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation rate in the first 6 months (RR 1·93 [1·11-3·26]). Overall, preterm infants accounted for 25% (95% UR 16-37) of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations in all infants of any gestational age. RSV-associated ALRI in-hospital case fatality ratio in preterm infants was similar to all infants. The factors identified to be associated with RSV-associated ALRI incidence were mainly perinatal and sociodemographic characteristics, and factors associated with severe outcomes from infection were mainly underlying medical conditions including congenital heart disease, tracheostomy, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, chronic lung disease, or Down syndrome (with ORs ranging from 1·40 to 4·23).

INTERPRETATION

Preterm infants face a disproportionately high burden of RSV-associated disease, accounting for 25% of RSV hospitalisation burden. Early preterm infants have a substantial RSV hospitalisation burden persisting into the second year of life. Preventive products for RSV can have a substantial public health impact by preventing RSV-associated ALRI and severe outcomes from infection in preterm infants.

FUNDING

EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe.

An epidemiological investigation of high-risk infants for Respiratory Syncytial Virus infections: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) infections may lead to severe consequences in infants born preterm with breathing problems (such as bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and respiratory distress syndrome (RDS)) or congenital heart diseases (CHD). Since studies investigating the influence of different gestational age (WGA) and concomitant specific comorbidities on the burden of RSV infections are scarce, the present study aimed to better characterize these high-risk populations in the Italian context.

METHODS

This retrospective, longitudinal and record-linkage cohort study involved infants born between 2017 and 2019 in Lazio Region (Italy) and is based on data extracted from administrative databases. Each infant was exclusively included in one of the following cohorts: (1) BPD-RDS (WGA ≤35 with or without CHD) or (2) CHD (without BPD and/or RDS) or (3) Preterm (WGA ≤35 without BPD (and/or RDS) or CHD). Each cohort was followed for 12 months from birth. Information related to sociodemographic at birth, and RSV and Undetermined Respiratory Agents (URA) hospitalizations and drug consumption at follow-up were retrieved and described.

RESULTS

A total of 8,196 infants were selected and classified as 1,084 BPD-RDS, 3,286 CHD and 3,826 Preterm. More than 30% of the BPD-RDS cohort was composed by early preterm infants (WGA ≤ 29) in contrast to the Preterm cohort predominantly constitute by moderate preterm infants (98.2%), while CHD infants were primarily born at term (83.9%). At follow-up, despite the cohorts showed similar proportions of RSV hospitalizations, in BPD-RDS cohort hospitalizations were more frequently severe compared to those occurred in the Preterm cohort (p<0.01), in the BPD-RDS cohort was also found the highest proportion of URA hospitalizations (p<0.0001). In addition, BPD-RDS infants, compared to those of the remaining cohorts, received more frequently prophylaxis with palivizumab (p<0.0001) and were more frequently treated with adrenergics inhalants, and glucocorticoids for systemic use.

CONCLUSIONS

The assessment of the study clinical outcomes highlighted that, the demographic and clinical characteristics at birth of the study cohorts influence their level of vulnerability to RSV and URA infections. As such, continuous monitoring of these populations is necessary in order to ensure a timely organization of health care system able to respond to their needs in the future.

Intensity and drivers of subtypes interference between seasonal influenza viruses in mainland China: A modeling study

Subtype interference has a significant impact on the epidemiological patterns of seasonal influenza viruses (SIVs). We used attributable risk percent [the absolute value of the ratio of the effective reproduction number (Rₑ) of different subtypes minus one] to quantify interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, as well as B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. The interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 was higher in southern China 0.26 (IQR: 0.11-0.46) than in northern China 0.17 (IQR: 0.07-0.24). Similarly, interference intensity between B/Victoria and B/Yamagata was also higher in southern China 0.14 (IQR: 0.07-0.24) than in norther China 0.10 (IQR: 0.04-0.18). High relative humidity significantly increased subtype interference, with the highest relative risk reaching 20.59 (95% CI: 6.12-69.33) in southern China. Southern China exhibited higher levels of subtype interference, particularly between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2. Higher relative humidity has a more pronounced promoting effect on subtype interference.

Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Prevalence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Hospitalized Children with Lower Respiratory Tract Infections: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

During the COVID-19 pandemic, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented in order to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, potentially affecting the prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). This review evaluated the impact of NPIs on RSV-related hospitalizations in children during the lockdown (2020-2021) compared to the pre-pandemic (2015-2020) and post-lockdown (2021-2022) periods. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched through PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for studies published in English between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2022. Additionally, we conducted hand searches of other records published between 1 January 2023 and 22 January 2024. Our target population was hospitalized children aged 0-18 years with RSV-related lower respiratory tract infections confirmed through immunofluorescence, antigen testing, or molecular assays. We focused on peer-reviewed observational studies, analyzing the primary outcome of pooled RSV prevalence. A generalized linear mixed model with a random-effects model was utilized to pool each RSV prevalence. Heterogeneity was assessed using Cochran's Q and I2 statistics, while publication bias was evaluated through funnel plots and Egger's tests. We identified and analyzed 5815 publications and included 112 studies with 308,985 participants. Notably, RSV prevalence was significantly lower during the lockdown period (5.03% [95% CI: 2.67; 9.28]) than during the pre-pandemic period (25.60% [95% CI: 22.57; 28.88], p < 0.0001). However, RSV prevalence increased notably in the post-lockdown period after the relaxation of COVID-19 prevention measures (42.02% [95% CI: 31.49; 53.33] vs. 5.03% [95% CI: 2.67; 9.28], p < 0.0001). Most pooled effect estimates exhibited significant heterogeneity (I2: 91.2% to 99.3%). Our findings emphasize the effectiveness of NPIs in reducing RSV transmission. NPIs should be considered significant public health measures to address RSV outbreaks.

Seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus infection in children hospitalized with acute lower respiratory tract infections in Hunan, China, 2013-2022

BACKGROUND

In China, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections traditionally occur during the spring and winter seasons. However, a shift in the seasonal trend was noted in 2020-2022, during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

METHODS

This study investigated the seasonal characteristics of RSV infection in children hospitalized with acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs). The RSV epidemic season was defined as RSV positivity in > 10% of the hospitalized ALRTI cases each week. Nine RSV seasons were identified between 2013 and 2022, and nonlinear ordinary least squares regression models were used to assess the differences in year-to-year epidemic seasonality trends.

RESULTS

We enrolled 49,658 hospitalized children diagnosed with ALRTIs over a 9-year period, and the RSV antigen-positive rate was 15.2% (n = 7,566/49,658). Between 2013 and 2022, the average onset and end of the RSV season occurred in week 44 (late October) and week 17 of the following year, respectively, with a typical duration of 27 weeks. However, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the usual spring RSV peak did not occur. Instead, the 2020 epidemic started in week 32, and RSV seasonality persisted into 2021, lasting for an unprecedented 87 weeks before concluding in March 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

RSV seasonality was disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the season exhibited an unusually prolonged duration. These findings may provide valuable insights for clinical practice and public health considerations.

Impact of Subgroup Distribution on Seasonality of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus: A Global Systematic Analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies reported inconsistent findings regarding the association between respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) subgroup distribution and timing of RSV season. We aimed to further understand the association by conducting a global-level systematic analysis.

METHODS

We compiled published data on RSV seasonality through a systematic literature review, and unpublished data shared by international collaborators. Using annual cumulative proportion (ACP) of RSV-positive cases, we defined RSV season onset and offset as ACP reaching 10% and 90%, respectively. Linear regression models accounting for meteorological factors were constructed to analyze the association of proportion of RSV-A with the corresponding RSV season onset and offset.

RESULTS

We included 36 study sites from 20 countries, providing data for 179 study-years in 1995-2019. Globally, RSV subgroup distribution was not significantly associated with RSV season onset or offset globally, except for RSV season offset in the tropics in 1 model, possibly by chance. Models that included RSV subgroup distribution and meteorological factors explained only 2%-4% of the variations in timing of RSV season.

CONCLUSIONS

Year-on-year variations in RSV season onset and offset are not well explained by RSV subgroup distribution or meteorological factors. Factors including population susceptibility, mobility, and viral interference should be examined in future studies.

Respiratory Viruses and Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Surveillance Among Hospitalized Children with Acute Respiratory Infections - Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, September-November 2023

What is already known about this topic?

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a significant contributor to illness and death in children. There has been a notable rise in the occurrence of ARIs and the associated pathogens in China, which has garnered worldwide attention.

What is added by this report?

This study conducted a retrospective analysis of the clinical characteristics of children with ARIs in Wuhan City from September to November 2023. The study evaluated the epidemiological patterns of common respiratory viruses and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP), revealing a continued prevalence of MP and a growing trend of influenza. Our findings emphasize that the circulation of respiratory viruses and MP has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, underscoring the importance of enhancing surveillance for respiratory pathogens.

What are the implications for public health practice?

The epidemiology of ARIs and the pathogens involved need to be emphasized. This highlights the importance of developing policies to protect children from respiratory pathogens such as MP, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus.

Prevalence of respiratory viruses among hospitalized children with lower respiratory tract infections during the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, China

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate the continuous changes in respiratory virus epidemics in hospitalized children with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) persisting from January 2019 to December 2022 in Wuhan, China.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled children with LRTIs admitted to the Wuhan Children's Hospital. Specimens were nasopharyngeal aspirates which had been collected and detected the following microorganisms with direct immunofluorescence: influenza virus types A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus types 1-3, and adenovirus. We also analyzed demographic data and laboratory test results.

RESULTS

A total of 22,660 patients were enrolled. The total virus detection rate in 2019, 2021, and 2022 significantly declined gradually (36.96% vs 29.47% vs 22.62%, P value < 0.001). All the detected viruses did not follow previously observed seasonal patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Children hospitalized for LRTIs were older during the COVID-19 pandemic in contrast to the pre-period, particularly notable in cases attributed to respiratory syncytial virus and parainfluenza virus type 3 infections.

CONCLUSIONS

This work adds to our knowledge of the epidemiology characteristics of respiratory viruses spanning the COVID-19 pandemic among children with LRTIs. The circulation of respiratory viruses changed consistently, and active LRTI surveillance in children remains critical for defining the healthcare burden of respiratory viruses.

Determining the timing of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics: a systematic review, 2016 to 2021; method categorisation and identification of influencing factors

BackgroundThere is currently no standardised approach to estimate respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics' timing (or seasonality), a critical information for their effective prevention and control.AimWe aimed to provide an overview of methods to define RSV seasonality and identify factors supporting method choice or interpretation/comparison of seasonal estimates.MethodsWe systematically searched PubMed and Embase (2016-2021) for studies using quantitative approaches to determine the start and end of RSV epidemics. Studies' features (data-collection purpose, location, regional/(sub)national scope), methods, and assessment characteristics (case definitions, sampled population's age, in/outpatient status, setting, diagnostics) were extracted. Methods were categorised by their need of a denominator (i.e. numbers of specimens tested) and their retrospective vs real-time application. Factors worth considering when choosing methods and assessing seasonal estimates were sought by analysing studies.ResultsWe included 32 articles presenting 49 seasonality estimates (18 thereof through the 10% positivity threshold method). Methods were classified into eight categories, two requiring a denominator (1 retrospective; 1 real-time) and six not (3 retrospective; 3 real-time). A wide range of assessment characteristics was observed. Several studies showed that seasonality estimates varied when methods differed, or data with dissimilar assessment characteristics were employed. Five factors (comprising study purpose, application time, assessment characteristics, healthcare system and policies, and context) were identified that could support method choice and result interpretation.ConclusionMethods and assessment characteristics used to define RSV seasonality are heterogeneous. Our categorisation of methods and proposed framework of factors may assist in choosing RSV seasonality methods and interpretating results.

Descriptive analysis to assess seasonal patterns of COVID-19 and influenza in low-income and middle-income countries in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America

OBJECTIVES

Understanding disease seasonality can help predict the occurrence of outbreaks and inform public health planning. Respiratory diseases typically follow seasonal patterns; however, knowledge regarding the seasonality of COVID-19 and its impact on the seasonality of influenza remains limited. The objective of this study was to provide more evidence to understand the circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in an endemic scenario to guide potential preventive strategies.

DESIGN

In this study, a descriptive analysis was undertaken to describe seasonality trends and/or overlap between COVID-19 and influenza in 12 low-income and middle-income countries using Our World in Data and FluMart data sources. Plots of COVID-19 and influenza cases were analysed.

SETTING

Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

OUTCOME MEASURES

COVID-19 cases and influenza cases.

RESULTS

No seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2/influenza cocirculation were observed in most countries, even when considering the avian influenza pandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can inform public health strategies. The lack of observed seasonal behaviour highlights the importance of maintaining year-round vaccination rather than implementing seasonal campaigns. Further research investigating the influence of climate conditions, social behaviour and year-round preventive measures could be fundamental for shaping appropriate policies related to COVID-19 and respiratory viral disease control in low-income and middle-income countries as COVID-19 variant data and epidemiologic patterns accrue over time.

Clinical features and outcomes of influenza and RSV coinfections: a report from Canadian immunization research network serious outcomes surveillance network

BACKGROUND

Influenza and RSV coinfections are not commonly seen but are concerning as they can lead to serious illness and adverse clinical outcomes among vulnerable populations. Here we describe the clinical features and outcomes of influenza and RSV coinfections in hospitalized adults.

METHODS

A cohort study was performed with pooled active surveillance in hospitalized adults ≥ 50 years from the Serious Outcomes Surveillance Network of the Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN SOS) during the 2012/13, 2013/14, and 2014/15 influenza seasons. Descriptive statistics summarized the characteristics of influenza/RSV coinfections. Kaplan-Meier estimated the probability of survival over the first 30 days of hospitalization.

RESULTS

Over three influenza seasons, we identified 33 cases of RSV and influenza coinfection, accounting for 2.39 cases per 1,000 hospitalizations of patients with acute respiratory illnesses. Adults aged 50 + years commonly reported cough (81.8%), shortness of breath (66.7%), sputum production (45.5%), weakness (33.3%), fever (27.3%), and nasal congestion (24.2%) as constitutional and lower respiratory tract infection symptoms. The mortality rate was substantial (12.1%), and age, comorbidity burden, and frailty were associated with a higher risk for adverse clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults are at higher risk for complications from influenza and RSV coinfections, especially those over 65 with a high comorbidity burden and frailty.

Co-occurrence of bacteria and viruses and serotype distribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae in the nasopharynx of Tanzanian children below 2 years of age following introduction of the PCV13

Introduction

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines have reduced severe disease attributed to vaccine-type pneumococci in children. However, the effect is dependent on serotype distribution in the population and disease development may be influenced by co-occurrence of viral and bacterial pathogens in the nasopharynx.

Methods

Following introduction of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in Tanzania we performed repeated cross-sectional surveys, including 775 children below 2 years of age attending primary healthcare centers. All children were sampled from nasopharynx and pneumococci were detected by single-target PCR. Pneumococcal serotypes/groups and presence of viruses and other bacteria were determined by two multiplex PCR assays.

Results

The prevalence of PCV13 vaccine-type pneumococci decreased by 50%, but residual vaccine-types were still detected in 21% of the children 2 years after PCV13 introduction. An increase in the non-vaccine-type 15 BC was observed. Pneumococci were often co-occurring with Haemophilus influenzae, and detection of rhino/enterovirus was associated with higher pneumococcal load.

Discussion

We conclude that presence of residual vaccine-type and emerging non-vaccine-type pneumococci in Tanzanian children demand continued pneumococcal surveillance. High co-occurrence of viral and bacterial pathogens may contribute to the disease burden and indicate the need of multiple public health interventions to improve child health in Tanzania.

Machine learning in predicting severe acute respiratory infection outbreaks

Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) outbreaks occur annually, with seasonal peaks varying among geographic regions. Case notification is important to prepare healthcare networks for patient attendance and hospitalization. Thus, health managers need adequate resource planning tools for SARI seasons. This study aims to predict SARI outbreaks based on models generated with machine learning using SARI hospitalization notification data. In this study, data from the reporting of SARI hospitalization cases in Brazil from 2013 to 2020 were used, excluding SARI cases caused by COVID-19. These data were prepared to feed a neural network configured to generate predictive models for time series. The neural network was implemented with a pipeline tool. Models were generated for the five Brazilian regions and validated for different years of SARI outbreaks. By using neural networks, it was possible to generate predictive models for SARI peaks, volume of cases per season, and for the beginning of the pre-epidemic period, with good weekly incidence correlation (R2 = 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95-0.98, for the 2019 season in the Southeastern Brazil). The predictive models achieved a good prediction of the volume of reported cases of SARI; accordingly, 9,936 cases were observed in 2019 in Southern Brazil, and the prediction made by the models showed a median of 9,405 (95%CI: 9,105-9,738). The identification of the period of occurrence of a SARI outbreak is possible using predictive models generated with neural networks and algorithms that employ time series.

Current state and challenges in respiratory syncytial virus drug discovery and development

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in young children and elderly people worldwide. Recent significant progress in our understanding of the structure and function of RSV proteins has led to the discovery of several clinical candidates targeting RSV fusion and replication. These include both the development of novel small molecule interventions and the isolation of potent monoclonal antibodies. In this review, we summarize the state-of-the-art of RSV drug discovery, with a focus on the characteristics of the candidates that reached the clinical stage of development. We also discuss the lessons learned from failed and discontinued clinical developments and highlight the challenges that remain for development of RSV therapies.

Burden of respiratory syncytial virus disease across the lifespan in Australia and New Zealand: a scoping review

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection in young children worldwide. RSV is increasingly associated with severe respiratory disease in people aged >65 years. The heterogeneous landscape of RSV in Australia and New Zealand makes generalisation of results from global studies to local contexts difficult. Given the changing landscape of RSV, we aimed to examine the existing literature on the burden of RSV disease and identify evidence gaps in Australia and New Zealand.

STUDY DESIGN

Scoping review.

METHODS

We designed a scoping review protocol and searched the Web of Science and Scopus databases for eligible peer-reviewed publications. Data from eligible studies were charted and summarised in tabular and narrative form.

RESULTS

Of the 153 eligible publications identified, 123 investigated RSV disease in a hospital setting and six in primary care. Only six studies reported the economic burden of disease, all of which estimated direct healthcare costs associated with treatment and/or hospitalisation; no studies quantified the indirect costs or costs to families.

CONCLUSIONS

In this scoping review, we describe the effect of RSV disease in several high-risk populations, including children and adults. An improved understanding of the RSV burden of disease, both in primary care settings and economically, within the local context will assist with the implementation of preventative strategies, including vaccination programmes. Future studies to determine the true burden of RSV-associated morbidity, mortality and economic burden across the entire patient journey and among different healthcare settings will help prioritise emerging RSV therapeutics.

The effects of weather and mobility on respiratory viruses dynamics before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and Canada

The flu season is caused by a combination of different pathogens, including influenza viruses (IVS), that cause the flu, and non-influenza respiratory viruses (NIRVs), that cause common colds or influenza-like illness. These viruses exhibit similar dynamics and meteorological conditions have historically been regarded as a principal modulator of their epidemiology, with outbreaks in the winter and almost no circulation during the summer, in temperate regions. However, after the emergence of SARS-CoV2, in late 2019, the dynamics of these respiratory viruses were strongly perturbed worldwide: some infections displayed near-eradication, while others experienced temporal shifts or occurred "off-season". This disruption raised questions regarding the dominant role of weather while also providing an unique opportunity to investigate the roles of different determinants on the epidemiological dynamics of IVs and NIRVs. Here, we employ statistical analysis and modelling to test the effects of weather and mobility in viral dynamics, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging epidemiological surveillance data on several respiratory viruses, from Canada and the USA, from 2016 to 2023, we found that whereas in the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period, weather had a strong effect, in the pandemic period the effect of weather was strongly reduced and mobility played a more relevant role. These results, together with previous studies, indicate that behavioral changes resulting from the non-pharmacological interventions implemented to control SARS-CoV2, interfered with the dynamics of other respiratory viruses, and that the past dynamical equilibrium was disturbed, and perhaps permanently altered, by the COVID-19 pandemic.

American Society of Transplantation and Cellular Therapy Series: #7 - Management of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients

The Practice Guidelines Committee of the American Society of Transplantation and Cellular Therapy (ASTCT) partnered with its Transplant Infectious Disease Special Interest Group (TID-SIG) to update the 2009 compendium-style infectious disease guidelines for hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). A new approach was adopted to better serve clinical providers by publishing each standalone topic in the infectious disease series in a concise format of frequently asked questions (FAQ), tables, and figures. Experts in HCT and infectious diseases identified FAQs and then provided answers based on the strength of the recommendation and the level of supporting evidence. In the seventh guideline in the series, we focus on the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) with FAQs addressing epidemiology, clinical diagnosis, prophylaxis, and treatment. Special consideration was given to RSV in pediatric, cord blood, haploidentical, and T cell-depleted HCT and chimeric antigen receptor T cell therapy recipients, as well as to identify future research directions.

Positive and negative viral associations in patients with acute respiratory tract infections in primary care: the ECOVIR study

Introduction

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the most common viral infections encountered in primary care settings. The identification of causal viruses is still not available in routine practice. Although new strategies of prevention are being identified, knowledge of the relationships between respiratory viruses remains limited.

Materials and methods

ECOVIR was a multicentric prospective study in primary care, which took place during two pre-pandemic seasons (2018-2019 and 2019-2020). Patients presenting to their General practitioner (GP) with ARIs were included, without selecting for age or clinical conditions. Viruses were detected on nasal swab samples using a multiplex Polymerase Chain Reaction test focused on 17 viruses [Respiratory Syncytial Virus-A (RSV-A), RSV-B, Rhinovirus/Enterovirus (HRV), human Metapneumovirus (hMPV), Adenovirus (ADV), Coronaviruses (CoV) HKU1, NL63, 229E, OC43, Influenza virus (H1 and H3 subtypes), Influenza virus B, Para-Influenza viruses (PIVs) 1-4, and Bocavirus (BoV)].

Results

Among the 668 analyzed samples, 66% were positive for at least one virus, of which 7.9% were viral codetections. The viral detection was negatively associated with the age of patients. BoV, ADV, and HRV occurred more significantly in younger patients than the other viruses (p < 0.05). Codetections were significantly associated with RSV, HRV, BoV, hMPV, and ADV and not associated with influenza viruses, CoV, and PIVs. HRV and influenza viruses were negatively associated with all the viruses. Conversely, a positive association was found between ADV and BoV and between PIVs and BoV.

Conclusion

Our study provides additional information on the relationships between respiratory viruses, which remains limited in primary care.

Report of the WHO technical consultation on the evaluation of respiratory syncytial virus prevention cost effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries, April 7-8, 2022

Policymakers often rely on impact and cost-effectiveness evaluations to inform decisions about the introduction of health interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, cost-effectiveness results for the same health intervention can differ by the choice of parameter inputs, modelling assumptions, and geography. Anticipating the near-term availability of new respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention products, WHO convened a two-day virtual consultation in April 2022 with stakeholder groups and global experts in health economics, epidemiology, and vaccine implementation. The objective was to review methods, parameterization, and results of existing cost-effectiveness analyses for RSV prevention in LMICs; identify the most influential inputs and data limitations; and recommend and prioritize future data gathering and research to improve RSV prevention impact estimates in LMICs. Epidemiological parameters identified as both influential and uncertain were those associated with RSV hospitalization and death, specifically setting-specific hospitalization rates and RSV-attributable death rates. Influential economic parameters included product price, delivery costs, willingness-to-pay for health on the part of potential donors, and the cost of RSV-associated hospitalization. Some of the influential parameters identified at this meeting should be more precisely measured by further research. Other influential economic parameters that are highly uncertain may not be resolved, and it is appropriate to use sensitivity analyses to explore these within cost-effectiveness evaluations. This report highlights the presentations and major discussions of the meeting.

Seasonality of endemic COVID-19

Successive waves of infection by SARS-CoV-2 have left little doubt that this virus will transition to an endemic disease. Foreknowledge of when to expect seasonal surges is crucial for healthcare and public health decision-making. However, the future seasonality of COVID-19 remains uncertain. Evaluating its seasonality is complicated due to the limited years of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, pandemic dynamics, and varied interventions. In this study, we project the expected endemic seasonality by employing a phylogenetic ancestral and descendant state approach that leverages long-term data on the incidence of circulating HCoV coronaviruses. Our projections indicate asynchronous surges of SARS-CoV-2 across different locations in the northern hemisphere, occurring between October and January in New York and between January and March in Yamagata, Japan. This knowledge of spatiotemporal surges leads to medical preparedness and enables the implementation of targeted public health interventions to mitigate COVID-19 transmission.IMPORTANCEThe seasonality of COVID-19 is important for effective healthcare and public health decision-making. Previous waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections have indicated that the virus will likely persist as an endemic pathogen with distinct surges. However, the timing and patterns of potentially seasonal surges remain uncertain, rendering effective public health policies uninformed and in danger of poorly anticipating opportunities for intervention, such as well-timed booster vaccination drives. Applying an evolutionary approach to long-term data on closely related circulating coronaviruses, our research provides projections of seasonal surges that should be expected at major temperate population centers. These projections enable local public health efforts that are tailored to expected surges at specific locales or regions. This knowledge is crucial for enhancing medical preparedness and facilitating the implementation of targeted public health interventions.

Value profile for respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children worldwide, yet no licensed RSV vaccine exists to help prevent the millions of illnesses and hospitalizations and tens of thousands of young lives taken each year. Monoclonal antibody (mAb) prophylaxis exists for prevention of RSV in a small subset of very high-risk infants and young children, but the only currently licensed product is impractical, requiring multiple doses and expensive for the low-income settings where the RSV disease burden is greatest. A robust candidate pipeline exists to one day prevent RSV disease in infant and pediatric populations, and it focuses on two promising passive immunization approaches appropriate for low-income contexts: maternal RSV vaccines and long-acting infant mAbs. Licensure of one or more candidates is feasible over the next one to three years and, depending on final product characteristics, current economic models suggest both approaches are likely to be cost-effective. Strong coordination between maternal and child health programs and the Expanded Program on Immunization will be needed for effective, efficient, and equitable delivery of either intervention. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for RSV is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO headquarters. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the RSV VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Clinical impact of human parainfluenza virus infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Southern China

Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) are a leading cause of acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs). Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were widely administered to combat the pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Respiratory specimens were obtained from 10,454 hospitalized children with ARTIs to detect HPIV. We investigated differences in epidemiological and clinical characteristics of HPIV infections before (2017-2019) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022). HPIVs were detected in 392 (3.75%, 392/10,454) patients, of whom 70 (17.86%), 48 (12.24%), and 274 (69.90%) were positive for HPIV1, HPIV2, and HPIV3, respectively. Detection rates of HPIV3 were higher in 2020-2022 than in 2017-2019 (3.38% vs. 2.24%). The seasonal distribution of HPIV1 showed no difference, but HPIV3 peaked between September and December during the COVID-19 pandemic, which differed from previous epidemiological patterns. Compared to the period before the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a noticeable decrease in the incidence of asthma, moist rales, and emesis in patients infected with HPIV1 and in asthma, expectoration, and severe pneumonia in patients infected with HPIV3 during 2020-2022. The detection rates of HPIV increased in Southern China during the COVID-19 outbreak, which underlines the importance of continuous surveillance of HPIV in the next epidemic season.

Respiratory virus surveillance in hospitalized children less than two-years of age in Kenema, Sierra Leone during the COVID-19 pandemic (October 2020- October 2021)

Globally, viral pathogens are the leading cause of acute respiratory infection in children under-five years. We aim to describe the epidemiology of viral respiratory pathogens in hospitalized children under-two years of age in Eastern Province of Sierra Leone, during the second year of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We conducted a prospective study of children hospitalized with respiratory symptoms between October 2020 and October 2021. We collected demographic and clinical characteristics and calculated each participant´s respiratory symptom severity. Nose and throat swabs were collected at enrollment. Total nucleic acid was purified and tested for multiple respiratory viruses. Statistical analysis was performed using R version 4.2.0 software. 502 children less than two-years of age were enrolled. 376 (74.9%) had at least one respiratory virus detected. The most common viruses isolated were HRV/EV (28.2%), RSV (19.5%) and PIV (13.1%). Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 were identified in only 9.2% and 3.9% of children, respectively. Viral co-detection was common. Human metapneumovirus and RSV had more than two-fold higher odds of requiring O2 therapy while hospitalized. Viral pathogen prevalence was high (74.9%) in our study population. Despite this, 100% of children received antibiotics, underscoring a need to expand laboratory diagnostic capacity and to revisit clinical guidelines implementation in these children. Continuous surveillance and serologic studies among more diverse age groups, with greater geographic breadth, are needed in Sierra Leone to better characterize the long-term impact of COVID-19 on respiratory virus prevalence and to better characterize the seasonality of respiratory viruses in Sierra Leone.

Multicenter epidemiological investigation and genetic characterization of respiratory syncytial virus and metapneumovirus infections in the pre-pandemic 2018-2019 season in northern and central Italy

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus (HMPV) cause a high burden of disease, particularly in children and the elderly. With the aim to add knowledge on RSV and HMPV infections in Italy, a prospective, multicenter study was conducted by eight centers of the Working Group on Respiratory Virus Infections (GLIViRe), from December 2018-April 2019. Weekly distribution and patients' demographic and clinical data were compared in 1300 RSV and 222 HMPV-positive cases. Phylogenetic analysis of the G-glycoprotein coding region was performed to characterize circulating strains. RSV positivity ranged from 6.4% in outpatients of all ages to 31.7% in hospitalized children; HMPV positivity was 4-1.2% with no age-association. RSV season peaked in February and ended in mid-April: HMPV circulation was higher when RSV decreased in early spring. RSV was more frequent in infants, whereas HMPV infected comparatively more elderly adults; despite, their clinical course was similar. RSV-B cases were two-thirds of the total and had similar clinical severity compared to RSV-A. Phylogenetic analysis showed the circulation of RSV-A ON1 variants and the predominance of RSV-B genotype BA10. HMPV genotype A2c was the prevalent one and presented insertions of different lengths in G. This first multicenter Italian report on seasonality, age-specific distribution, and clinical presentation of RSV and HMPV demonstrated their substantial disease burden in young patients but also in the elderly. These data may provide the basis for a national respiratory virus surveillance network.

RSV Burden and Its Impact on Pediatric Inpatient Bed Occupancy in Belgium: An Analysis of National Hospital Claims Data

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections represent a substantial burden on pediatric services during winter. While the morbidity and financial burden of RSV are well studied, less is known about the organizational impact on hospital services (ie, impact on bed capacity and overcrowding and variation across hospitals).

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of the population-wide Belgian Hospital Discharge Data Set for the years 2017 and 2018 (including all hospital sites with pediatric inpatient services), covering all RSV-associated (RSV-related International Classification of Diseases, 10th Version, Clinical Modification diagnoses) inpatient hospitalization by children under 5 years old as well as all-cause acute hospitalizations in pediatric wards.

RESULTS

RSV hospitalizations amount to 68.3 hospitalizations per 1000 children less than 1 year and 5.0 per 1000 children 1-4 years of age and are responsible for 20%-40% of occupied beds during the peak period (November-December). The mean bed occupancy rate over the entire year (2018) varies across hospitals from 22.8% to 85.1% and from 30.4% to 95.1% during the peak period. Small-scale pediatric services (<25 beds) are more vulnerable to the volatility of occupancy rates. Forty-six hospital sites have daily occupancy rates above 100% (median of 9 days). Only in 1 of 23 geographically defined hospital networks these high occupancy rates are on the same calendar days.

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric services tend to be over-dimensioned to deal with peak activity mainly attributable to RSV. RSV immunization can substantially reduce pediatric capacity requirements. Enhanced collaboration in regional networks is an alternative strategy to deal with peaks and reduce capacity needs.

Influenza: seasonality and travel-related considerations

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

This review aims to summarize the transmission patterns of influenza, its seasonality in different parts of the globe, air travel- and cruise ship-related influenza infections and interventions to reduce transmission.

KEY FINDINGS

The seasonality of influenza varies globally, with peak periods occurring mainly between October and April in the northern hemisphere (NH) and between April and October in the southern hemisphere (SH) in temperate climate zones. However, influenza seasonality is significantly more variable in the tropics. Influenza is one of the most common travel-related, vaccine-preventable diseases and can be contracted during travel, such as during a cruise or through air travel. Additionally, travellers can come into contact with people from regions with ongoing influenza transmission. Current influenza immunization schedules in the NH and SH leave individuals susceptible during their respective spring and summer months if they travel to the other hemisphere during that time.

CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS

The differences in influenza seasonality between hemispheres have substantial implications for the effectiveness of influenza vaccination of travellers. Health care providers should be aware of influenza activity when patients report travel plans, and they should provide alerts and advise on prevention, diagnostic and treatment options. To mitigate the risk of travel-related influenza, interventions include antivirals for self-treatment (in combination with the use of rapid self-tests), extending the shelf life of influenza vaccines to enable immunization during the summer months for international travellers and allowing access to the influenza vaccine used in the opposite hemisphere as a travel-related vaccine. With the currently available vaccines, the most important preventive measure involves optimizing the seasonal influenza vaccination. It is also imperative that influenza is recognized as a travel-related illness among both travellers and health care professionals.

Interleukin-4 Promotes Human Metapneumovirus Replication Through the JAK/STAT6 Pathway

Respiratory virus infections are the main causes of pediatric diseases. Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) is an enveloped RNA virus similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2, both of which have emerged as important new respiratory viruses. Recent studies have found that interleukin-4 (IL-4) is involved in the replication of a variety of viruses, and its role differs in different viruses. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of IL-4 on hMPV and to elucidate its mechanism of action. We found that hMPV infection promoted the expression of IL-4 in human bronchial epithelial cells. The replication of the virus was reduced using small interfering RNA knockdown of IL-4 expression, while the addition of exogenous recombinant human IL-4 to IL-4 knockdown cells restored viral replication ability. These results demonstrate that the expression of IL-4 is closely related to the replication of hMPV; moreover, further experiments revealed that IL-4 promotes the replication of hMPV through a mechanism dependent on the Janus kinase/signal transductor and transcription activator 6 signaling pathway. Therefore, anti-IL-4 strategies may be a promising avenue for the treatment of hMPV infection, representing an important breakthrough for children at risk from hMPV infection.

The re-emergence of influenza following the COVID-19 pandemic in Victoria, Australia, 2021 to 2022

BackgroundCOVID-19 pandemic mitigation measures, including travel restrictions, limited global circulation of influenza viruses. In Australia, travel bans for non-residents and quarantine requirements for returned travellers were eased in November 2021, providing pathways for influenza viruses to be re-introduced.AimWe aimed to describe the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the re-emergence of influenza in Victoria, Australia to inform public health interventions.MethodsFrom 1 November 2021 to 30 April 2022, we conducted an epidemiological study analysing case notification data from the Victorian Department of Health to describe case demographics, interviewed the first 200 cases to establish probable routes of virus reintroduction and examined phylogenetic and antigenic data to understand virus diversity and susceptibility to current vaccines.ResultsOverall, 1,598 notifications and 1,064 positive specimens were analysed. The majority of cases (61.4%) occurred in the 15-34 years age group. Interviews revealed a higher incidence of international travel exposure during the first month of case detections, and high levels of transmission in university residential colleges were associated with return to campus. Influenza A(H3N2) was the predominant subtype, with a single lineage predominating despite multiple importations.ConclusionEnhanced testing for respiratory viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic provided a more complete picture of influenza virus transmission compared with previous seasons. Returned international travellers were important drivers of influenza reemergence, as were young adults, a group whose role has previously been under-recognised in the establishment of seasonal influenza epidemics. Targeting interventions, including vaccination, to these groups could reduce future influenza transmission.

The impact of current and future climates on spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in a tropical setting

Although the drivers of influenza have been well studied in high-income settings in temperate regions, many open questions remain about the burden, seasonality, and drivers of influenza dynamics in the tropics. In temperate climates, the inverse relationship between specific humidity and transmission can explain much of the observed temporal and spatial patterns of influenza outbreaks. Yet, this relationship fails to explain seasonality, or lack there-of, in tropical and subtropical countries. Here, we analyzed eight years of influenza surveillance data from 12 locations in Bangladesh to quantify the role of climate in driving disease dynamics in a tropical setting with a distinct rainy season. We find strong evidence for a nonlinear bimodal relationship between specific humidity and influenza transmission in Bangladesh, with highest transmission occurring for relatively low and high specific humidity values. We simulated influenza burden under current and future climate in Bangladesh using a mathematical model with a bimodal relationship between humidity and transmission, and decreased transmission at very high temperatures, while accounting for changes in population immunity. The climate-driven mechanistic model can accurately capture both the temporal and spatial variation in influenza activity observed across Bangladesh, highlighting the usefulness of mechanistic models for low-income countries with inadequate surveillance. By using climate model projections, we also highlight the potential impact of climate change on influenza dynamics in the tropics and the public health consequences.

Neutralising antibodies against human metapneumovirus

Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) is one of the leading causes of respiratory infection. Since its discovery in 2001, no specific antiviral or vaccine has been available in contrast to its closely related family member human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV). Neutralising monoclonal antibodies (nMAbs) are the core effectors of vaccines and are essential therapeutic immune drugs against infectious pathogens. The development of nMAbs against hMPV has accelerated in recent years as a result of breakthroughs in viral fusion (F) protein structural biology and experience with hRSV and other enveloped viruses. We provide an overview of the potent F-specific nMAbs of hMPV, generalise their targeting F antigen epitopes, and discuss the nMAb development strategy and future directions for hMPV and broad-spectrum hMPV, hRSV nMabs, and vaccine research and development.

All-cause and pathogen-specific lower respiratory tract infection hospital admissions in children younger than 5 years during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-22) compared with the pre-pandemic period (2015-19) in South Africa: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions affected the circulation of and illness due to endemic respiratory pathogens during the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the incidence of admissions to hospital for overall and specific pathogen-associated lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with incidence in the pre-pandemic period.

METHODS

In this observational study, we analysed surveillance data for children younger than 5 years from two public hospitals in Soweto, South Africa, for all-cause LRTI, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, human metapneumovirus, and Bordetella pertussis from Jan 1, 2015 to Dec 31, 2022. Data were obtained from an electronic database that includes information for all admissions to the general paediatric wards at the two hospitals, automatically identified by a computer program. We excluded children admitted to hospital with incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 without LRTI diagnosis. Incidence during COVID-19 pandemic years (2020, 2021, and 2022) were compared with pre-pandemic rates (2015-19).

FINDINGS

Overall, there were 42 068 all-cause hospital admissions, including 18 303 all-cause LRTI hospital admissions, from Jan 1, 2015, to Dec 31, 2022, 17 822 (42·4%) of whom were female, 23 893 (57·0%) were male, and 353 (0·8%) had missing data. All-cause LRTI incidence risk ratio (IRR) was 30% lower in 2020 (IRR 0·70, 95% CI 0·67-0·74) and 13% lower in 2021 (0·87, 0·83-0·91), but 16% higher in 2022 (1·16, 1·11-1·21) compared with the pre-pandemic period. Furthermore, compared with the pre-pandemic period, incidence of RSV-associated LRTI (0·52, 0·45-0·58), influenza-associated LRTI (0·05, 0·02-0·11), and pulmonary tuberculosis (0·52, 0·41-0·65) were lower in 2020, with similar trends observed for human-metapneumovirus-associated LRTI, pertussis, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Compared with the pre-pandemic period, by 2022, RSV-associated LRTI incidence was similar (1·04, 0·95-1·14) and influenza-associated LRTI showed a non-significant increase (1·14, 0·92-1·39), whereas incidence remained lower for tuberculosis (0·79, 0·65-0·94) and IPD (0·51, 0·24-0·99). In 2022, the incidence of COVID-19-associated LRTI hospital admission (65 per 100 000 children younger than 5 years) was lower than pre-pandemic RSV-associated LRTI (0·23, 0·19-0·27) but higher than pre-pandemic influenza-associated LRTI (1·19, 0·97-1·45), although the difference was not significant. All-cause LRTI death in 2022 (57 per 100 000 children younger than 5 years) was 28% higher than in the pre-pandemic period (1·28, 1·03-1·58).

INTERPRETATION

The higher incidence of all-cause LRTI admissions to hospital in 2022 compared with the pre-pandemic period is partly due to ongoing COVID-19 admission to hospital, and could worsen if other endemic respiratory pathogens revert to pre-pandemic incidence. Interventions, including the introduction of vaccines for people who are pregnant that aim to prevent RSV and possibly COVID-19 in young children, are warranted.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Advances in the Relationship between Respiratory Viruses and Asthma

Several studies have reported that viral infection is closely associated with the onset, progression, and exacerbation of asthma. The purpose of this review is to summarize the role that viral infections have in the pathogenesis of asthma onset and exacerbations, as well as discuss interrelated protective and risk factors of asthma and current treatment options. Furthermore, we present current knowledge of the innate immunological pathways driving host defense, including changes in the epithelial barrier. In addition, we highlight the importance of the genetics and epigenetics of asthma and virus susceptibility. Moreover, the involvement of virus etiology from bronchiolitis and childhood wheezing to asthma is described. The characterization and mechanisms of action of the respiratory viruses most frequently related to asthma are mentioned.

Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study

Factors affecting the start date of the influenza epidemic season and total number of infected persons per 1,000,000 population in 47 prefectures of Japan were evaluated. This retrospective observational study (September 2014-August 2019; N = 472,740-883,804) evaluated data from a Japanese health insurance claims database. Single and multiple regression analyses evaluated the time to start of the epidemic or total infected persons per 1,000,000 population with time to absolute humidity (AH) or number of days with AH (≤ 5.5, ≤ 6.0, ≤ 6.5, and ≤ 7.0), total visitors (first epidemic month or per day), and total population. For the 2014/15, 2015/16, and 2016/17 seasons, a weak-to-moderate positive correlation (R2: 0.042-0.417) was observed between time to start of the epidemic and time to first day with AH below the cutoff values. Except in the 2016/17 season (R2: 0.089), a moderate correlation was reported between time to start of the epidemic and the total population (R2: 0.212-0.401). For all seasons, multiple regression analysis showed negative R2 for time to start of the epidemic and total visitors and population density (positive for time to AH ≤ 7.0). The earlier the climate becomes suitable for virus transmission and the higher the human mobility (more visitors and higher population density), the earlier the epidemic season tends to begin.

More than a Tripledemic: Influenza A Virus, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, SARS-CoV-2, and Human Metapneumovirus in Wastewater during Winter 2022-2023

Wastewater monitoring can provide insights into respiratory disease occurrence in communities that contribute to the wastewater system. Using daily measurements of RNA of influenza A (IAV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and human metapneumovirus (HMPV), as well as SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater solids from eight publicly owned treatment works in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area of California between July 2022 and early July 2023, we identify a "tripledemic" when concentrations of IAV, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 peaked at approximately the same time. HMPV was also widely circulating. We designed novel hydrolysis probe RT-PCR assays for different IAV subtype markers to discern that the dominant circulating IAV subtype was H3N2. We show that wastewater data can be used to identify the onset and offset of wastewater disease occurrence events. This information can provide insight into disease epidemiology and timely, localized information to inform hospital staffing and clinical decision making to respond to circulating viruses. Whereas RSV and IAV wastewater events were mostly regionally coherent, HMPV events displayed localized occurrence patterns.