Early policy actions and emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Mongolia: experiences and challenges

The mortality burden related to COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 - years of life lost and excess mortality in 13 countries and sub-national regions in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia

Introduction

Between 2021 and 2023, a project was funded in order to explore the mortality burden (YLL-Years of Life Lost, excess mortality) of COVID-19 in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

Methods

For each national or sub-national region, data on COVID-19 deaths and population data were collected for the period March 2020 to December 2021. Unstandardized and age-standardised YLL rates were calculated according to standard burden of disease methodology. In addition, all-cause mortality data for the period 2015-2019 were collected and used as a baseline to estimate excess mortality in each national or sub-national region in the years 2020 and 2021.

Results

On average, 15-30 years of life were lost per death in the various countries and regions. Generally, YLL rates per 100,000 were higher in countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, there were differences in how countries and regions defined and counted COVID-19 deaths. In most countries and sub-national regions, YLL rates per 100,000 (both age-standardised and unstandardized) were higher in 2021 compared to 2020, and higher amongst men compared to women. Some countries showed high excess mortality rates, suggesting under-diagnosis or under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths, and/or relatively large numbers of deaths due to indirect effects of the pandemic.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that the COVID-19 mortality burden was greater in many countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, heterogeneity in the data (differences in the definitions and counting of COVID-19 deaths) may have influenced our results. Understanding possible reasons for the differences was difficult, as many factors are likely to play a role (e.g., differences in the extent of public health and social measures to control the spread of COVID-19, differences in testing strategies and/or vaccination rates). Future cross-country analyses should try to develop structured approaches in an attempt to understand the relative importance of such factors. Furthermore, in order to improve the robustness and comparability of burden of disease indicators, efforts should be made to harmonise case definitions and reporting for COVID-19 deaths across countries.

Medical education in Mongolia: Challenges and opportunities

In the early twentieth century, Mongolia saw the establishment of Western medicine and educational system, supplementing its pre-existing history of eastern medicine. As a lower-middle-income country with vast landmass and low population density, Mongolia's medical education landscape has evolved significantly. The inception of the Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences in 1942 marked a pivotal moment, initiating the modern era of medical sciences and specialized training programs in the country. Initially shaped by Soviet Union-styled medical curriculum, the system has undergone substantial reform since the constitutional shift to a market economy in the 1990s. This transformation aligned the curriculum with international standards and modern educational approach, focusing on producing skilled medical professionals. Presently, over 10 public and private institutions of higher education in Mongolia provide comprehensive undergraduate, graduate and post-graduate training for medical training. These institutions vary in student enrollment, teaching staff, learning environments, and program models, contributing to the diverse landscape of medical education in the country.

Estimating Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Transmission of the COVID-19 First Few Cases in Selenge Province, Mongolia

BACKGROUND

Following the first locally transmitted case in Sukhbaatar soum, Selenge Province, we aimed to investigate the ultimate scale of the epidemic in the scenario of uninterrupted transmission.

METHODS

This was a prospective case study following the locally modified WHO FFX cases generic protocol. A rapid response team collected data from November 14 to 29, 2020. We created a stochastic process to draw many transmission chains from this greater distribution to better understand and make inferences regarding the outbreak under investigation.

RESULTS

The majority of the cases involved household transmissions (35, 52.2%), work transmissions (20, 29.9%), index (5, 7.5%), same apartment transmissions (2, 3.0%), school transmissions (2, 3.0%), and random contacts between individuals transmissions (1, 1.5%). The posterior means of the basic reproduction number of both the asymptomatic casesR 0 Asy $$ {R}_0^{Asy} $$ and the presymptomatic casesR 0 Pre $$ {R}_0^{Pre} $$ (1.35 [95% CrI 0.88-1.86] and 1.29 [95% CrI 0.67-2.10], respectively) were lower than that of the symptomatic cases (2.00 [95% Crl 1.38-2.76]).

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission across different symptom statuses and underscores the importance of early identification and isolation of symptomatic cases in disease control. Our approach, which combines detailed contact tracing data with advanced statistical methods, can be applied to other infectious diseases, facilitating a more nuanced understanding of disease transmission dynamics.

A cross-sectional study of the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on domestic violence-related oral and maxillofacial injuries

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 lockdown, more domestic violence-related traumas were reported. In this study, we investigated and compared the incidence of domestic violence-related injuries-in particular oral and maxillofacial injuries-in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, before and during the COVID-19 lockdown.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study based on 3974 domestic violence cases registered at the Public Health Department, National Traumatology and Orthopedics Research Center of Mongolia between 2018 and 2022. Descriptive and binary logistic regression analyses were conducted. The victims were categorized according to their age (child, adult, and elderly).

RESULTS

The mean age of the victims was children 9.7 ± 5.4 years, adults 34.8 ± 8.3 years, and elderly 64.3 ± 8.7 years. Binary logistic regression analysis (no/yes) showed that oral and maxillofacial injuries during the lockdown increased 1.3 times (OR = 1.3; CI 95% = 1.0-1.6; p = .003) in adults and 2.5 times in children (OR = 2.5; CI 95% = 1.7-3.9; p = .001). Additionally, injuries to upper limbs increased 4.6 times (OR = 4.6; CI 95% = 3.5-6.1; p = .001) in adults and 5.2 times in elderly patients (OR = 5.2; CI 95% = 1.8-16.2; p = .01). Additionally, thorax injury in children increased 3.1 times (OR = 3.1; CI 95% = 1.7-5.7; p = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

During the lockdown, injury to oral and maxillofacial regions increased in adult and child victims of domestic violence.

Effect of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Pneumonia Incidence Rates among Children 2-59 Months of Age, Mongolia, 2015-2021

Starting in June 2016, the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was introduced into the routine immunization program of Mongolia by using a 2+1 dosing schedule, phased by district. We used prospective hospital surveillance to evaluate the vaccine's effect on pneumonia incidence rates among children 2-59 months of age over a 6-year period. Of 17,607 children with pneumonia, overall adjusted incidence rate ratios showed decreased primary endpoint pneumonia, very severe pneumonia, and probable pneumococcal pneumonia until June 2021. Results excluding and including the COVID-19 pandemic period were similar. Pneumonia declined in 3 districts that introduced PCV13 with catch-up campaigns but not in the 1 district that did not. After PCV13 introduction, vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage prevalence decreased by 44% and nonvaccine-type carriage increased by 49%. After PCV13 introduction in Mongolia, the incidence of more specific pneumonia endpoints declined in children 2-59 months of age; additional benefits were conferred by catch-up campaigns.

RBD-specific antibody response after two doses of different SARS-CoV-2 vaccines during the mass vaccination campaign in Mongolia

The SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign began in February 2021 and achieved a high rate of 62.7% of the total population fully vaccinated by August 16, 2021, in Mongolia. We aimed to assess the initial protective antibody production after two doses of a variety of types of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the Mongolian pre-vaccine antibody-naïve adult population. This prospective study was conducted from March-April to July-August of 2021. All participants received one of the four government-proposed COVID-19 vaccines including Pfizer/BioNTech (BNT162b2), AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1-S), Sinopharm (BBIBP-CorV), and Sputnik V (Gam-COVID-Vac). Before receiving the first shot, anti-SARS-CoV-2 S-RBD human IgG titers were measured in all participants (n = 1833), and titers were measured 21-28 days after the second shot in a subset of participants (n = 831). We found an overall average protective antibody response of 84.8% (705 of 831 vaccinated) in 21-28 days after two doses of the four types of COVID-19 vaccines. Seropositivity and titer of protective antibodies produced after two shots of vaccine were associated with the vaccine types, age, and residence of vaccinees. Seropositivity rate varied significantly between vaccine types, 80.0% (28 of 35) for AstraZeneca ChAdOx1-S; 97.0% (193 of 199) for Pfizer BNT162b2; 80.7% (474 of 587) for Sinopharm BBIBP-CorV, and 100.0% (10 of 10) for Sputnik V Gam-COVID-Vac, respectively. Immunocompromised vaccinees with increased risk for developing severe COVID-19 disease had received the Pfizer vaccine and demonstrated a high rate of seropositivity. A high geometric mean titer (GMT) was found in vaccinees who received BNT162b2, while vaccinees who received ChAdOx1-S, Sputnik V, and BBIBP-CorV showed a lower GMT. In summary, we observed first stages of the immunization campaign against COVID-19 in Mongolia have been completed successfully, with a high immunogenicity level achieved among the population with an increased risk for developing severe illness.

Transmission dynamics, responses, and clinical features for the first 1100 COVID-19 cases in South Batinah, Oman: Major lessons from a provincial perspective

Objectives

This study was aimed at exploring and analyzing the epidemiological profile, surveillance, and response to COVID-19, including transmission dynamics and cluster formation.

Methodology

This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data, including contact tracing, risk factors, and clinical information. Binary logistic regressions were used to assess the likelihood of admission, cluster formation, and of each individual being an index patient. Clusters were demonstrated through geographic data systems, network analysis, and visualization software.

Results

A total of 1100 COVID-19 cases were diagnosed from 20 March to 7 June 2020, of which 144 (13.1%) were asymptomatic. The median time from symptom onset to admission was 7 days (IQR, 4.5-10), and the median symptom duration was 5 days (IQR, 3-9). Eighty-nine clusters containing 736 patients were identified. The surveillance and control actions were divided into three phases. Clusters began to form in phase 2 and became more pronounced in phase 3. Patients ≥50 years of age and patients presenting with fever had relatively higher odds of admission: OR = 12.85 (95% CI 5.13-32.19) and 2.53 (95% CI 1.24-5.17), respectively. Cluster formation was observed among females, asymptomatic patients, and people living in Awabi: OR = 2.3 (95% CI 1.7-3.1), 6.39 (95% CI 2.33-17.2), and 3.54 (95% CI 2.06-6.07), respectively. Patients working in the police and defense sectors had higher odds of being an index patient: OR = 7.88 (95% CI 3.35-18.52).

Conclusion

Case-based interventions should be supported by population-wide measures, particularly movement restrictions. Establishing prevention teams or district units, or primary care will be crucial for the control of future pandemics. Prevention should always be prioritized for vulnerable populations.

Molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Mongolia, first experience with nanopore sequencing in lower- and middle-income countries setting

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has had a significant impact globally, and extensive genomic research has been conducted on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage patterns and its variants. Mongolia's effective response resulted in low prevalence until vaccinations became available. However, due to the lack of systematically collected data and absence of whole genome sequencing capabilities, we conducted a two-stepped, nationally representative molecular epidemiologic study of SARS-CoV-2 in Mongolia for 2020 and 2021.

METHODS

We used retrospective analysis of stored biological samples from November 2020 to October 2021 and a variant-specific real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test to detect SARS-CoV-2 variants, followed by whole genome sequencing by Nanopore technology. Samples were retrieved from different sites and stored at -70°C deep freezer, and tests were performed on samples with cycle threshold <30.

RESULTS

Out of 4879 nucleic acid tests, 799 whole genome sequencing had been carried out. Among the stored samples of earlier local transmission, we found the 20B (B.1.1.46) variant predominated in the earlier local transmission period. A slower introduction and circulation of alpha and delta variants were observed compared to global dynamics in 2020 and 2021. Beta or Gamma variants were not detected between November 2020 and September 2021 in Mongolia.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concerns including alpha and delta were delayed in circulation potentially due to public health stringencies in Mongolia. We are sharing our initial experience with whole genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from Mongolia, where sequencing data is sparse.

Lessons learned from behaviors of the employees in Iranian banks during the Covid-19 pandemic crisis: A phenomenological study

The aim of this research is to analyze the experiences of employees during the Covid-19 pandemic cri-sis and conceptualize the lessons learned to deal with similar crises in the future. To achieve this, a qualitative approach with a phenomenological strategy was conducted through semi-structured, in-depth interviews with 16 front-line employees of Bank Melli, the largest state bank in Iran. The study found that employee behavior plays a critical role in crisis management, with functional behaviors such as preventive measures, stress management, and sharing valid information being essential. Dysfunctional behaviors such as resistance to change and inconsistent behaviors were also identified. The prevention of infection and stress management were identified as key behaviors to cope with the crisis, while media literacy and acceptance of change were crucial for correct information analysis and crisis management. Overall, the study highlights the challenges faced by employees during the Covid-19 crisis and provides valuable lessons from a behavioral perspective for managers in the banking industry to manage disruptions caused by current and future pandemics. The study emphasizes the importance of learning from the lessons of the Covid-19 crisis to reduce negative effects on physical and mental health.

From disease- to people-centred pandemic management: organized communities, community-oriented primary care and health information systems

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the health equity gap between and within countries. Western countries were the first to receive vaccines and mortality was higher among socially deprived, minority and indigenous populations. Surprisingly, many sub-Saharan countries reported low excess mortalities. These countries share experiences with community organization and participation in health. The aim of this article was to analyse if and how this central role of people can promote a successful pandemic response.

METHODS

This analysis was partly based on local and national experiences shared during an international and Latin American conference on person-and people-centred care in 2021. Additionally, excess mortality data and pandemic control-relevant data, as well as literature on the pandemic response of countries with an unexpected low excess mortality were consulted.

RESULTS

Togo, Mongolia, Thailand and Kenya had a seven times lower mean excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 than the United States of America. More successful pandemic responses were observed in settings with experience in managing epidemics like Ebola and HIV, well-established community networks, a national philosophy of mutual aid, financial government assistance, more human resources for primary care and paid community health workers.

DISCUSSION

Since trust in authorities and health needs vary greatly, local strategies are needed to complement national and international pandemic responses. Three key levers were identified to promote locally-tailored pandemic management: well-organized communities, community-oriented primary care, and health information systems. An organized community structure stems from a shared ethical understanding of humanity as being interconnected with each other and the environment. This structure facilitates mutual aid and participation in decision making. Community-oriented primary care includes attention for collective community health and ways to improve health from its roots. A health information system supports collective health and health equity analysis by presenting health needs stratified for social deprivation, ethnicity, and community circumstances.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in excess mortality between countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and various country experiences demonstrate the potential of the levers in promoting a more just and effective health emergency response. These same levers and strategies can promote more inclusive and socially just health systems.

Antibody responses to mRNA versus non-mRNA COVID vaccines among the Mongolian population

Background

A nationwide vaccination program against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was started in Mongolia 4 months after the first local transmission, which occurred in November 2020. Previous studies have reported that two doses of COVID-19 vaccine result in increased antibody against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). A study was conducted in Mongolia 2 weeks after the second vaccine dose. In the present study, the serum levels of antibodies of individuals 6 months after natural SARS-CoV-2 infection were compared with those of individuals who had not been infected or had been infected but had received two doses of vaccine, including BNT162b2, ChAdOx1 n-CoV-19, Gam-COVID-Vac, and BBIBP-CorV, which were used for COVID-19 in Mongolia.

Methods

Of the 450 participants in this study, 237 (52.66%) were female and 213 (47.33%) were male. Four hundred people with or without SARS-CoV-2 infection who received two doses of 4 different COVID-19 vaccine participated in the vaccine groups and vaccine plus SARS-CoV-2 infection groups (50 in each group) and 50 individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 participated in the unvaccinated group. Total antibody against SARS-CoV-2 infection, anti-SARS-CoV-2 N and S protein human IgG, and antibody inhibiting RBD-ACE2 binding were tested.

Results

In the BNT162b2 vaccine group, total antibody against SARS-CoV-2 remained constant until 6 months, while the other vaccine groups showed a significant decrease, as compared to the unvaccinated group. The level of anti-SARS-CoV-2 S-RBD protein IgG was significantly increased in the ChAdOx1 n-CoV-19, Gam-COVID-Vac, and BNT162b2 vaccines groups as compared to the unvaccinated group. Participants in the BNT162b2 vaccine group had higher ACE2 inhibition efficiency compared to the other vaccine groups as well as the unvaccinated group.

Conclusions

The BNT162b2 vaccine showed the highest level of antibody against SARS-CoV-2, followed by the BBIBP-CorV, Gam-COVID-Vac, and ChAdOx1 n-CoV-19 vaccines. The level of antibodies was increased in people infected with SARS-CoV-2 after vaccination, as compared to uninfected but vaccinated individuals.

Prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes in Mongolia: Results from Population-Based Survey Compared with 1999 Study

Purpose

The burden of diabetes in Mongolia has risen tremendously over the last three decades, and an individually tracked, national registry of diabetes is lacking. Therefore, we aim to investigate diabetes prevalence in Mongolia and analyze some associated factors.

Materials and Methods

A cross-sectional, nationally representative, population-based survey was carried out in Mongolia. We recruited participants from randomly selected six different clusters for the required 3113 ± 311 sample size. We collected detailed demographics, diabetes condition and medications, anthropometric measurements, body composition, and glucose profiles. Oral glucose tolerance tests were used to diagnose diabetes using the International Diabetes Federation algorithm. Chi-square and multinomial logistic regression tests were used to determine associated factors. Age-standardized prevalence rates were estimated.

Results

We recruited 3272 participants in the study between June and October 2019. Crude prevalence rates for prediabetes and diabetes were 10.8% (95% CI; 9.8-11.9) and 11.2% (95% CI; 10.1-12.3), respectively. Sixty-one adults were newly diagnosed with diabetes. Age-standardized prediabetes and diabetes prevalence rates were 9.8% (95% CI; 8.5-11.1) and 10.0% (95% CI; 8.7-11.3) among adults 30 or older. Higher BMI, central obesity, diabetes inheritance, sedentary habitus, and hypertension are significantly associated with diabetes in adjusted analysis for sex and age group.

Conclusion

The prevalence of diabetes has increased at least threefold since 1999 in Mongolia. In addition, numerous modifiable risk factors were associated with diabetes. Therefore, future investigations and programs should focus on combating obesity and sedentary lifestyles and propose dietary recommendations in the context of expanding diabetes in Mongolia.

SARS-CoV-2 seroepidemiology in Mongolia, 2020-2021: a longitudinal national study

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has global impacts but is relatively understudied in developing countries. Mongolia, a lower-middle-income country, instituted strict control measures in early 2020 and avoided widespread transmission until vaccines became available in February, 2021. Mongolia achieved its 60% vaccination coverage goal by July 2021. We investigated the distribution and determinants of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Mongolia over 2020 and 2021.

Methods

We performed a longitudinal seroepidemiologic study aligned with WHO's Unity Studies protocols. We collected data from a panel of 5000 individuals in four rounds between October 2020 and December 2021. We selected participants through local health centres across Mongolia by age-stratified multi-stage cluster sampling. We tested serum for the presence of total antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain, and levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG and neutralising antibodies. We linked participant data with national mortality, COVID-19 case, and vaccination registries. We estimated population seroprevalence and vaccine uptake, as well as unvaccinated population prior-infection prevalence.

Findings

At the final round in late 2021, 82% (n = 4088) of participants completed follow-up. Estimated seroprevalence increased from 1.5% (95% CI: 1.2-2.0), to 82.3% (95% CI: 79.5-84.8) between late-2020 and late-2021. At the final round an estimated 62.4% (95% CI: 60.2-64.5) of the population were vaccinated, and of the unvaccinated population 64.5% (95% CI: 59.7-69.0) had been infected. Cumulative case ascertainment in the unvaccinated was 22.8% (95% CI: 19.1%-26.9%) and the overall infection-fatality ratio was 0.100% (95% CI: 0.088-0.124). Health workers had higher odds for being COVID-19 confirmed cases at all rounds. Males (1.72 (95% CI: 1.33-2.22)) and adults aged 20 and above (12.70 (95% CI: 8.14-20.26)) had higher odds for seroconverting by mid-2021. Among the seropositive, 87.1% (95% CI: 82.3%-90.8%) had SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies by late 2021.

Interpretation

Our study enabled tracking of SARS-CoV-2 serological markers in the Mongolian population over one year. We found low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in 2020 and early 2021, with seropositivity increasing over a 3-month interval in 2021 due to vaccine roll out and rapid infection of most of the unvaccinated population. Despite high seroprevalence in Mongolia amongst both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals by end-2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron immune escape variant caused a substantial epidemic.

Funding

World Health Organization, WHO UNITY Studies initiative, with funding by the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund and the German Federal Ministry of Health (BMG) COVID-19 Research and development. The Ministry of Health, Mongolia partially funded this study.

Assessing the impact of local context and priorities regarding domestic disease outbreaks and imported risk on early pandemic response: Cross-continental comparisons

Introduction

Containment and closure policies are effective measures used in the early stages of a highly transmissible global pandemic such as COVID-19 to mitigate the spread and reduce transmissions. However, these policies can have negative impacts on the economy and personal freedom. Governments must carefully consider the necessity of increasing their stringency. Local contexts and priorities regarding domestic disease outbreaks and the risk of imported cases from other countries may vary among different countries, and could influence the decision to increase containment measures. Thus, this study aimed to differentiate the impacts of these affecting factors on the stringency of governmental containment measures through cross-continental comparisons.

Methods

This study utilized a zero/one inflated beta (ZOIB) regression model to investigate how domestic epidemic, imported risk, and local context affect government responses to a pandemic. We used a country's weekly confirmed case and death numbers as a measure of its domestic threat. The imported risk was measured using a combination of weekly new cases in each country and the air passenger traffic between countries.

Results

The findings indicate that domestic case numbers are a primary concern for governments when deciding to increase policy stringency. Countries with higher development levels tend to implement stricter policies as they can better handle the negative impacts. Additionally, there is an interaction between case numbers and development level, with countries at the second or third highest development level focusing more on domestic outbreaks than imported risks, while those at the highest level have similar concerns for both.

Conclusions

We concluded that most countries adjust policies' stringency majorly based on the variation of domestic case number rather than the other pandemic factors and the countries with a high development level tend to implement strict policies since their socio-economical condition could afford such policies. These insights can aid policymakers in improving containment and closure policies for future pandemics.

Bridging the research-practice gap in supply chain risks induced by the COVID-19

Purpose

This study aims to explore the gap between research and practice on supply chain risks due to COVID-19 by exploring the changes in global emphasis on supply chain risk research.

Design/methodology/approach

This work designed a research framework to compare the research of supply chain risks before and during the COVID-19 pandemic based on machining learning and text clustering and using the relevant publications of the web of science database.

Findings

The results show that scholars' attention to supply chain crisis has increased in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, but there are differences among countries. The United Kingdom, India, Australia, the USA and Italy have greatly increased their emphasis on risk research, while the supply chain risk research growth rate in other countries, including China, has been lower than the global level. Compared with the pre-pandemic period, the research of business finance, telecommunications, agricultural economics policy, business and public environmental occupational health increased significantly during the pandemic. The hotspots of supply chain risk research have changed significantly during the pandemic, focusing on routing problem, organizational performance, food supply chain, dual-channel supply chain, resilient supplier selection, medical service and machine learning.

Research limitations/implications

This study has limitations in using a single database.

Social implications

This work compared the changes in global and various countries' supply chain risk research before and during the pandemic. On the one hand, it helps to judge the degree of response of scholars to the global supply chain risk brought about by COVID-19. On the other hand, it is beneficial for supply chain practitioners and policymakers to gain an in-depth understanding of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain risk, which might provide insights into not only addressing the supply chain risk but also the recovery of the supply chain.

Originality/value

The initial exploration of the changing extent of supply chain risk research in the context of COVID-19 provided in this paper is a unique and earlier attempt that extends the findings of the existing literature. Secondly, this research provides a feasible analysis strategy for supply chain risk research, which provides a direction and paradigm for exploring more effective supply chain research to meet the challenges of COVID-19.

A systematic review of strategies adopted to scale up COVID-19 testing in low-, middle- and high-income countries

OBJECTIVE

We undertook a systematic review of strategies adopted to scale up COVID-19 testing in countries across income levels to identify successful approaches and facilitate learning.

METHODS

Scholarly articles in English from PubMed, Google scholar and Google search engine describing strategies used to increase COVID-19 testing in countries were reviewed. Deductive analysis to allocate relevant text from the reviewed publications/reports to the a priori themes was done.

MAIN RESULTS

The review covered 32 countries, including 11 high-income, 2 upper-middle-income, 13 lower-middle-income and 6 low-income countries. Most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) increased the number of laboratories available for testing and deployed sample collection and shipment to the available laboratories. The high-income countries (HICs) that is, South Korea, Germany, Singapore and USA developed molecular diagnostics with accompanying regulatory and legislative framework adjustments to ensure the rapid development and use of the tests. HICs like South Korea leveraged existing manufacturing systems to develop tests, while the LMICs leveraged existing national disease control programmes (HIV, tuberculosis, malaria) to increase testing. Continent-wide, African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention-led collaborations increased testing across most African countries through building capacity by providing testing kits and training.

CONCLUSION

Strategies taken appear to reflect the existing systems or economies of scale that a particular country could leverage. LMICs, for example, drew on the infectious disease control programmes already in place to harness expertise and laboratory capacity for COVID-19 testing. There however might have been strategies adopted by other countries but were never published and thus did not appear anywhere in the searched databases.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on ridesourcing services differed between small towns and large cities

To curb the spread of the ongoing 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), authorities have adopted several non-pharmaceutical (NPIs) and pharmaceutical interventions, which significantly affected our daily activities and mobility patterns. However, it is still unclear how severity of NPIs, COVID-19-related variables, and vaccination rates have affected demand for ridesourcing services, and whether these effects vary across small towns and large cities. We analyzed over 220 million ride requests in the City of Chicago (population: 2.7 million), Illinois, and 52 thousand in the Town of Innisfil (population: 37 thousand), Ontario, to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ridesourcing demand in the two locations. Overall, the pandemic resulted in fewer trips in areas with higher proportions of seniors and more trips to parks and green spaces. Ridesourcing demand was adversely affected by the stringency index and COVID-19-related variables, and positively affected by vaccination rates. However, compared to Innisfil, ridesourcing services in Chicago experienced higher reductions in demand, were more affected by the number of hospitalizations and deaths, were less impacted by vaccination rates, and had lower recovery rates.

Leukocyte glucose index as a novel biomarker for COVID-19 severity

The severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quickly progresses with unfavorable outcomes due to the host immune response and metabolism alteration. Hence, we hypothesized that leukocyte glucose index (LGI) is a biomarker for severe COVID-19. This study involved 109 patients and the usefulness of LGI was evaluated and compared with other risk factors to predict COVID 19 severity. LGI was identified as an independent risk factor (odds ratio [OR] = 1.727, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.026-3.048, P = 0.041), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.749 (95% CI: 0.642-0.857, P < 0.0001). Interestingly, LGI was a potential risk factor (OR = 2.694, 95% CI: 1.575-5.283, Pcorrected < 0.05) for severe COVID-19 in female but not in male patients. In addition, LGI proved to be a strong predictor of the severity in patients with diabetes (AUC = 0.915 (95% CI: 0.830-1), sensitivity = 0.833, and specificity = 0.931). The AUC of LGI, together with the respiratory rate (LGI + RR), showed a considerable improvement (AUC = 0.894, 95% CI: 0.835-0.954) compared to the other biochemical and respiratory parameters analyzed. Together, these findings indicate that LGI could potentially be used as a biomarker of severity in COVID-19 patients.

Sex-adjusted approach to baseline variables demonstrated some improved predictive capabilities for disease severity and survival in patients with Coronavirus Disease 19

INTRODUCTION

The study was focused on comparing crude and sex-adjusted hazard ratio calculated by the baseline variables which may have contributed to the severity of the disease course and fatal outcomes in Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) patients.

METHOD

The study enrolled 150 eligible adult patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. There were 61 (40.7%) male patients, and 89 (59.3%) female patients. Baseline information of patients was collected from patient medical records and surveys that the patients had completed on admission to the hospital.

RESULTS

Considerable number of baseline variables stratified according to disease severity and outcomes showed different optimal cut-points (OCP) in men and women. Sex-adjusted baseline data categories such as age; BMI; systolic and diastolic blood pressure; peripheral RBC and platelet counts; haematocrit; percentage of neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, and their ratio; percentage of eosinophils; titre of plasma IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and IL-17; and CXCL10; and ratio of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines demonstrated significant impacts on the development of the severe stage and fatal outcomes by the mean hazard ratio in the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models.

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed some improved predictive capabilities of the sex-adjusted approach in the analysis of the baseline predictive variables for severity and outcome of the COVID-19.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on O-D flow and airport networks in the origin country and in Northeast Asia

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has posed a global threat to human health. In order to prevent the spread of this virus, many countries have imposed travel restrictions. This difficult situation has dramatically affected the airline industry by reducing the passenger volume, number of flights, airline flow patterns, and even has changed the entire airport network, especially in Northeast Asia (because it includes the original disease seed). However, although most scholars have used conventional statistical analysis to describe the changes in passenger volume before and during the COVID-19 outbreak, very few of them have applied statistical assessment or time series analysis, and have not even examined how the impact may be different from place to place. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify the impact of COVID-19 on the airline industry and affected areas (including the origin-destination flow and the airport network). First, a Clustering Large Applications (CLARA) algorithm was used to group numerous origin-destination (O-D) flow patterns based on their characteristics and to determine if these characteristics have changed the severity of the impact of each cluster during the COVID-19 outbreak. Second, two statistical tests (the paired t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test) were utilized to determine if the entire airport network and the top 30 hub airports changed during COVID-19. Four centrality measurement indices (degree, closeness, eigenvector, and betweenness centrality) of the airports were used to assess the entire network and ranking of individual hub airports. The study data, provided by The Official Aviation Guide (OAG) from December 2019 to April 2020, indicated that during the COVID-19 outbreak, there was a decrease in passenger volume (60%-98.4%) as well as the number of flights (1.5%-82.6%). However, there were no such significant changes regarding the popularity ranking of most airports during the outbreak. Before this occurred (December 2019), most hub airports were in China (April 2020), and this trend remain similar during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the values of the centrality measurement decreased significantly for most hub airports due to travel restrictions issued by the government.

What Type of Households in Mongolia Are Most Hit by COVID-19?

The study aims to validate the measures taken by the government of Mongolia against COVID-19 and to analyse the negative impacts of COVID-19 on the livelihood of different types of households. The survey covers 362 households consisting of five different types, namely, apartment households, ger district households, herder households, vegetable growing households, and small farmer households. Principal component analysis is used to reduce the number of variables to a few factors that best explain the variation in the variables. Two to three components were found from the principal component analyses that describe (i) government policy, (ii) challenges due to COVID-19, and (iii) risk and vulnerability that occurred due to COVID-19. Multiple regression models attributed by the household’s type were used to analyse the impact of the selected variables on the households’ income. According to the regression results, herding households are the least affected, compared to the other four types of households. The government measures to mitigate the negative impacts of COVID-19 have better results for apartment households and ger district households. Rural households are less affected and seem to be more resilient to COVID-19 shocks than other households.

Classification Schemes of COVID-19 High Risk Areas and Resulting Policies: A Rapid Review

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a significant global health threat since January 2020. Policies to reduce human mobility have been recognized to effectively control the spread of COVID-19; although the relationship between mobility, policy implementation, and virus spread remains contentious, with no clear pattern for how countries classify each other, and determine the destinations to- and from which to restrict travel. In this rapid review, we identified country classification schemes for high-risk COVID-19 areas and associated policies which mirrored the dynamic situation in 2020, with the aim of identifying any patterns that could indicate the effectiveness of such policies. We searched academic databases, including PubMed, Scopus, medRxiv, Google Scholar, and EMBASE. We also consulted web pages of the relevant government institutions in all countries. This rapid review's searches were conducted between October 2020 and December 2021. Web scraping of policy documents yielded additional 43 country reports on high-risk area classification schemes. In 43 countries from which relevant reports were identified, six issued domestic classification schemes. International classification schemes were issued by the remaining 38 countries, and these mainly used case incidence per 100,000 inhabitants as key indicator. The case incidence cut-off also varied across the countries, ranging from 20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the past 7 days to more than 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the past 28 days. The criteria used for defining high-risk areas varied across countries, including case count, positivity rate, composite risk scores, community transmission and satisfactory laboratory testing. Countries either used case incidence in the past 7, 14 or 28 days. The resulting policies included restrictions on internal movement and international travel. The quarantine policies can be summarized into three categories: (1) 14 days self-isolation, (2) 10 days self-isolation and (3) 14 days compulsory isolation.

Surveillance and pandemic governance in least‐ideal contexts: The Philippine case

This paper inquires how surveillance manifests in least‐ideal contexts (LICs), that is, countries with resource constraints, poor governance and proclivity for populism during COVID‐19, and its implications for crisis governance. Using the Philippines as a case, we advance three arguments. First, LICs can become spaces where inappropriate surveillance is undertaken. Second, liminal surveillance practices can become permanent policy fixtures in LICs. Finally, when a prevailing crisis approach of a government is perceived to be inconsistent with the needs of the public, it can lead to a self‐help system among various societal groups and actors. This self‐help system may not necessarily be aligned with the general direction of the national government. As a result, it can perpetuate a disjointed and maladaptive crisis governance approach, where main actors like national governments, and complementary actors like private sector firms, local government units and citizen organizations pursue goals independent of one another.

Estimating the Economic Effects of the Early Covid-19 Emergency Response in Cities Using Intracity Travel Intensity Data

In the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, China implemented the most stringent and serious emergency response. To understand the effect of such an emergency response strategy on the economic system, this study proposed a simultaneous overall estimation method using intracity travel intensity data. The overall effect is represented by the difference between intracity travel intensity with and without the emergency response. Using historical data and time series analysis, we compared intracity travel intensity post China’s implementation of the emergency response with predicted intracity travel intensity without such a response. The loss rates, defined by the proportion of intracity travel intensity loss, were calculated for 360 cities within 33 provincial-level regions in China based on data availability. We found that 30 days after the emergency response, 21% of the cities saw over 80% recovery and 10% of the cities showed more than 90% recovery; 45 days after the emergency response, more than 83% of the 360 cities witnessed 80% recovery. The correlation between gross domestic production loss rate and travel intensity loss rate was studied quantitatively to demonstrate the representativeness of the intracity travel intensity loss rate. This indicator was also used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of the effects on the economy. The results of this study can help us understand the economic effects caused by the early Covid-19 emergency response and the method can be a reference for fast and real-time economic loss estimation to support emergency response decision making under pandemic conditions.

Attitudes towards Mandatory Occupational Vaccination and Intention to Get COVID-19 Vaccine during the First Pandemic Wave among Mongolian Healthcare Workers: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Mandatory occupational vaccination for health care workers (HCWs) is a debatable issue, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to determine Mongolian HCWs' attitudes towards mandatory occupational vaccination, the intention to get the COVID-19 vaccine, and the associated factors. A cross-sectional study based on an online survey with a convenience sampling strategy was conducted from February to April 2021 among 238 Mongolia HCWs. Chi-square and logistic regression were performed for analysis. While only 39.9% of HCWs were aware of recommended occupational vaccinations, they highly agreed with the mandatory occupational vaccination on HCWs (93.7%). The agreement rate is significantly higher than their attitude toward general vaccination (93.7% vs. 77.8%). HCW's willingness to get the COVID-19 vaccine was high (67.2%). HCWs aged 26-35 years old who worked in tertiary level hospitals had less willingness to get the COVID-19 vaccine (50%). Participants with lower confidence in the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine (ORs = 15.659) and less positive attitudes toward general vaccination (ORs = 5.288) were less likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine. Mongolian HCWs' agreement rate of mandatory occupational vaccination is higher than other countries. Their intention to get the COVID-19 vaccine is high and associated with confidence in the effectiveness of the vaccine.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Mongolia: Results from a national population survey

Background

With the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in early 2020, Mongolia implemented rapid emergency measures and did not report local transmission until November 2020. We conducted a national seroprevalence survey to monitor the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in Mongolia in the months surrounding the first local transmission.

Methods

During October-December 2020, participants were randomly selected using age stratification and invited for interviews and blood samples at local primary health centres. We screened for total SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, followed by two-step quantitative SARS-CoV-2 IgG serology tests for positive samples. Weighted and test-adjusted seroprevalences were estimated. We used chi-square, Fisher's exact and other tests to identify variables associated with seropositivity.

Findings

A total of 5000 subjects were enrolled. We detected SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in 72 samples. Crude seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 1·44% (95%CI,1·21-1·67). Population weighted and test-adjusted seroprevalences were 1·36% (95%CI,1·11-1·63) and 1·45% (95%CI,1·11-1·63), respectively. Age, sex, geographical, and occupational factors were not associated with seropositivity (p>0·05). Symptoms and signs within past 3 months and seropositivity were not associated at the time of the survey (p>0·05).

Interpretation

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Mongolia was low in the first year of the pandemic potentially due to strong public health measures, including border restrictions, educational facilities closure, earlier adoption of mask-wearing and others. Our findings suggest large-scale community transmission could not have occurred up to November 2020 in Mongolia. Additional serosurveys are needed to monitor the local pandemic dynamic and estimate how far from herd immunity Mongolia will be following-up with vaccination programme in 2021 and 2022.

Funding

World Health Organisation, WHO UNITY Studies initiative, with funding by the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund and the German Federal Ministry of Health (BMG) COVID-19 Research and development.

Translation

Cyrillic and Traditional Mongolian translation of abstract is available on appendix section.

Prevalence and Determinants of Vitamin D Deficiency in 9595 Mongolian Schoolchildren: A Cross-Sectional Study

Population-based data relating to vitamin D status of children in Northeast Asia are lacking. We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the prevalence and determinants of vitamin D deficiency in 9595 schoolchildren aged 6-13 years in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital city of Mongolia. Risk factors for vitamin D deficiency were collected by questionnaire, and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations were measured using an enzyme-linked fluorescent assay, standardized and categorized as deficient (25[OH]D <10 ng/mL) or not. Odds ratios for associations between independent variables and risk of vitamin D deficiency were calculated using multivariate analysis with adjustment for potential confounders. The prevalence of vitamins D deficiency was 40.6% (95% CI 39.7% to 41.6%). It was independently associated with female gender (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for girls vs. boys 1.23, 95% CI 1.11-1.35), month of sampling (aORs for December-February vs. June-November 5.28 [4.53-6.15], March-May vs. June-November 14.85 [12.46-17.74]), lower levels of parental education (P for trend <0.001), lower frequency of egg consumption (P for trend <0.001), active tuberculosis (aOR 1.40 [1.03-1.94]), household smoking (aOR 1.13 [1.02 to1.25]), and shorter time outdoors (P for trend <0.001). We report a very high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency among Mongolian schoolchildren, which requires addressing as a public health priority.

The effect of the synchronized multi-dimensional policies on imported COVID-19 curtailment in China

As countries are lifting restrictions and resuming international travels, the rising risk of COVID-19 importation remains concerning, given that the SARS-CoV-2 virus could be transmitted unintentionally through the global transportation network. To explore and assess the effective strategies for curtailing the epidemic risk from international importation nationwide, we evaluated "the joint prevention and control" mechanism, which made up of 19 containment policies, on how it impacted the change of medical observation and detection time from border arrival to laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 in its burst in China. Based on 1,314 epidemiological-survey cases from February 29 to May 25, 2020, we found that the synchronized approach of implementing multi-dimensional interventional policies, such as a centralized quarantine and nucleic acid testing (NAT), flight service adjustment and border closure, effectively facilitate early identification of infected case. Specifically, the implementation of the international flight service reduction was found to be associated with a reduction of the mean intervals of diagnosis from arrival to lab-confirmation by 0.44 days maximally, and the border closure was associated with a reduction of the diagnosis interval of imported cases by 0.69 days, from arrival to laboratory confirmation. The study suggests that a timely and synchronized implementation of multi-dimensional policies is compelling in preventing domestic spreading from importation.

Covid-19 Preparedness and Response Capability: A Case Study of the Hanoi Primary Healthcare System

This study examined the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) preparedness and response of the health system (HS) in Hanoi, Vietnam, and identified enabling factors and barriers. This cross-sectional, mixed-methods study was conducted in 4 urban and peri-urban districts that included some wards with COVID-19-positive cases and some without. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) analytical frameworks were used. Overall, 10% of health facilities (HFs) failed to fully implement COVID-19 risk determination; 8.8% failed to fully implement stronger community partnerships with local stakeholders to support public health (PH) preparedness; 35% and 2.5% incompletely implemented and did not implement evaluation of PH emergency operations, respectively; 10% did not identify communication channels to issue public information, alerts, warnings, and notifications; 25% incompletely implemented identification, development of guidance, and standards for information; 72.5% had good preventive and treatment collaboration; and 10% did not fully implement procedures for laboratory testing and reporting results. Enablers included sufficient infrastructure and equipment, strong leadership, and good cross-public-sector collaboration with police and military forces. Barriers included workforce constraints, overburdened and inconsistent reporting systems, inappropriate financial mechanisms, ambiguous health governance, and lack of private-sector engagement. Nonetheless, the HS preparedness and response were satisfactory, although further coordinated efforts in evaluation, coordination, communication, and volunteering remain necessary.

Can technological advancements help to alleviate COVID-19 pandemic? a review

The COVID-19 pandemic is continuing, and the innovative and efficient contributions of the emerging modern technologies to the pandemic responses are too early and cannot be completely quantified at this moment. Digital technologies are not a final solution but are the tools that facilitate a quick and effective pandemic response. In accordance, mobile applications, robots and drones, social media platforms (such as search engines, Twitter, and Facebook), television, and associated technologies deployed in tackling the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak are discussed adequately, emphasizing the current-state-of-art. A collective discussion on reported literature, press releases, and organizational claims are reviewed. This review addresses and highlights how these effective modern technological solutions can aid in healthcare (involving contact tracing, real-time isolation monitoring/screening, disinfection, quarantine enforcement, syndromic surveillance, and mental health), communication (involving remote assistance, information sharing, and communication support), logistics, tourism, and hospitality. The study discusses the benefits of these digital technologies in curtailing the pandemic and 'how' the different sectors adapted to these in a shorter period. Social media and television's role in ensuring global connectivity and serving as a common platform to share authentic information among the general public were summarized. The World Health Organization and Governments' role globally in-line with the prevention of propagation of false news, spreading awareness, and diminishing the severity of the COVID-19 was discussed. Furthermore, this collective review is helpful to investigators, health departments, Government organizations, and policymakers alike to facilitate a quick and effective pandemic response.

Public opinion regarding government response to COVID-19: case study of a large commercial city in Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

government measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be effective without widespread compliance by the public. A greater understanding of citizens' perceptions of these measures can help government agencies adapt their strategies to boost compliance. We examined citizens' perceptions of government's measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and its implications on compliance using data from Onitsha city, Anambra State Nigeria.

METHODS

data was obtained through in-person interviews of 140 consenting adults in March 2020. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to summarize the data.

RESULTS

most participants (84.7%) doubted government's ability to manage the COVID-19 outbreak, raising concerns about ineffective governance (25.7%) and inadequate health facilities (20.7%). However, participants expressed a favorable perception of school closures (92.3%) and a ban on large gatherings (83.9%), driven mostly by the need to contain the COVID-19 and avoid its spread. But, they were generally indifferent about the closure of the markets and workplaces due to concerns for food insecurity and lack of government's relief programs. Participants who had a positive perception of the ban on large gatherings were more likely to have high knowledge and to adopt good COVID-19 preventive practices.

CONCLUSION

the study showed a lack of public's confidence in the government's ability to manage the pandemic. This provides an opportunity for the city government and the public to reflect on the existing relationships, build mutual trust, and devise collaborative engagement that will boost compliance and help contain the devastating impact of COVID-19 pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 Wave Two Surveillance in East Asia and the Pacific: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact on governments, health care systems, economies, and populations around the world. Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. As the second wave reaches East Asia and the Pacific, it becomes more evident that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed to track recent shifts, rates of increase, and persistence associated with the pandemic.

Objective

The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission.

Methods

Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.

Results

The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively.

Conclusions

Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.

Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Vietnam

The COVID-19 pandemic has become one of the most serious health crises in human history, spreading rapidly across the globe from January 2020 to the present. With prompt and drastic measures, Vietnam is one of the few countries that has largely succeeded in controlling the outbreak. This result is derived from a harmonious combination of many factors, with the policy system playing a key role. This study assessed the policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in Vietnam from the early days of the outbreak in January 2020 to 24 July 2020 (with a total of 413 cases confirmed and 99 days of no new cases infected from the local community) by synthesizing and evaluating 959 relevant policy documents in different classifications. The findings show that the Vietnamese policy system responded promptly, proactively, and effectively at multiple authority levels (33 different agencies from the national to provincial governments), using a range of policy tools and measures. Parallel to the daily occurrence of 2.24 new cases, 5.13 new policy documents were issued on average per day over the study period. The pandemic policy response over the first six months in Vietnam were divided into four periods, I (23 January-5 March), II (6-19 March), III (20 March-21 April), and IV (22 April-24 July). This paper synthesizes eight solution groups for these four anti-pandemic phases, including outbreak announcements and steering documents, medical measures, blockade of the schools, emergency responses, border and entry control measures, social isolation and nationwide social isolation measures, financial supports, and other measures. By emphasizing diversification of the policy responses, from the agencies to the tools and measures, the case study reviews and shares lessons from the successful COVID-19 prevention and control in Vietnam that could be useful for other nations.

A review of deciphering the successes and learning from the failures in preventive and health policies to stop the COVID-19 pandemic

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries have had successful experiences as well as failures. Countries have taken significant and different approaches to reducing the spread of COVID-19. This chapter states the soft method and herd immunity policy of some European countries (e.g., Sweden) in the early days of the epidemic, which failed. Most countries (e.g., Italy) that enacted a mandatory lockdown during the epidemic soon realized that this trend should not continue for longer periods because of side effects, namely social and economic troubles. Some other countries (e.g., Germany) imposed a social distancing of two meters in public places, which have been effective in reducing infection. Nowadays, reports indicate that some Asian countries have had more success than most European and American countries in taking containment measures. Hong Kong and Singapore are among the most successful countries in the world since the beginning of the pandemic, while the United States and Brazil are among the countries that have handled the development of the pandemic worst. Wearing a face mask in combination with social distancing is effective around 50% of the time. However, a complete combination of the following contention policies must be carried out by all countries, always considering the political, social, and above all, economic characteristics of each of them: (1) use face masks in public places, (2) keep suitable physical distancing, (3) extremely thorough hand hygiene, and (4) isolate all infected people. This should also include improving the ventilation in enclosed environments, designing safe routes in public and particular business locations, together with cleaning and disinfection activities.

Association of Country-wide Coronavirus Mortality with Demographics, Testing, Lockdowns, and Public Wearing of Masks

We studied sources of variation between countries in per-capita mortality from COVID-19 (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus). Potential predictors of per-capita coronavirus-related mortality in 200 countries by May 9, 2020 were examined, including age, gender, obesity prevalence, temperature, urbanization, smoking, duration of the outbreak, lockdowns, viral testing, contact-tracing policies, and public mask-wearing norms and policies. Multivariable linear regression analysis was performed. In univariate analysis, the prevalence of smoking, per-capita gross domestic product, urbanization, and colder average country temperature were positively associated with coronavirus-related mortality. In a multivariable analysis of 196 countries, the duration of the outbreak in the country, and the proportion of the population aged 60 years or older were positively associated with per-capita mortality, whereas duration of mask-wearing by the public was negatively associated with mortality (all P < 0.001). Obesity and less stringent international travel restrictions were independently associated with mortality in a model which controlled for testing policy. Viral testing policies and levels were not associated with mortality. Internal lockdown was associated with a nonsignificant 2.4% reduction in mortality each week (P = 0.83). The association of contact-tracing policy with mortality was not statistically significant (P = 0.06). In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 16.2% each week, as compared with 61.9% each week in remaining countries. Societal norms and government policies supporting the wearing of masks by the public, as well as international travel controls, are independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19.

Mongolia Red Cross Society, influenza preparedness planning and the response to COVID-19: the case for investing in epidemic preparedness

Influenza preparedness planning by Mongolia Red Cross Society in 2019 has provided a strong foundation for engagement with COVID-19 preparedness and response. The experience underscores the importance and value of investing in epidemic preparedness, and the importance of doing so well in advance of disease outbreaks.

Viruses That Can and Cannot Coexist With Humans and the Future of SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a worldwide pandemic. Many projections concerning the outbreak, such as the estimated number of cases and deaths in upcoming months, have been made available. However, what happens to the virus after the pandemic subsides has not been fully explored. In this article, we discuss the ways that past and present human viruses have emerged via zoonotic transmission, the mechanisms that they have acquired the ability for effective transmission among humans, the process to sustain a chain of transmission to coexist with humans, and the factors important for complete containment leading to eradication of viruses. These aspects of viral disease may provide clues for the future path that SARS-CoV-2 might take in relation to human infection.