COVID-19 in the 47 countries of the WHO African region: a modelling analysis of past trends and future patterns

COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Africa: A scoping review of the use of mathematical models to inform policy

OBJECTIVE

Mathematical models are vital tools to understand transmission dynamics and assess the impact of interventions to mitigate COVID-19. However, historically, their use in Africa has been limited. In this scoping review, we assess how mathematical models were used to study COVID-19 vaccination to potentially inform pandemic planning and response in Africa.

METHODS

We searched six electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, MathSciNet and Africa-Wide NiPAD, using keywords to identify articles focused on the use of mathematical modelling studies of COVID-19 vaccination in Africa that were published as of October 2022. We extracted the details on the country, author affiliation, characteristics of models, policy intent and heterogeneity factors. We assessed quality using 21-point scale criteria on model characteristics and content of the studies.

RESULTS

The literature search yielded 462 articles, of which 32 were included based on the eligibility criteria. Nineteen (59%) studies had a first author affiliated with an African country. Of the 32 included studies, 30 (94%) were compartmental models. By country, most studies were about or included South Africa (n = 12, 37%), followed by Morocco (n = 6, 19%) and Ethiopia (n = 5, 16%). Most studies (n = 19, 59%) assessed the impact of increasing vaccination coverage on COVID-19 burden. Half (n = 16, 50%) had policy intent: prioritising or selecting interventions, pandemic planning and response, vaccine distribution and optimisation strategies and understanding transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Fourteen studies (44%) were of medium quality and eight (25%) were of high quality.

CONCLUSIONS

While decision-makers could draw vital insights from the evidence generated from mathematical modelling to inform policy, we found that there was limited use of such models exploring vaccination impacts for COVID-19 in Africa. The disparity can be addressed by scaling up mathematical modelling training, increasing collaborative opportunities between modellers and policymakers, and increasing access to funding.

Health Planning in Times of COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: The Role of Its National Strategic Pandemic Management Committee

CONTEXT

Presenting the COVID-19 crisis as a pandemic misleadingly implies a certain homogeneity between the regions of the Globe in terms of their burden and reactions. However, from the outset of the crisis, countries presented different epidemiological realities and sometimes adopted divergent, even opposing measures. Curiously, the heterogeneity of responses persisted as scientific evidence accumulated about COVID-19 and the strategies for dealing with it.

CASE STUDY

This commentary aims to recount the specific experience of Burkina Faso, and how it reoriented its initial biomedical response into a multisectoral strategy. Burkina Faso set up a committee specifically to examine the effects not only of the pandemic, but also of the control measures. This committee was mandated to decompartmentalize the lens through which the COVID-19 was dealt with. It entered into dialogue with a level of stakeholders often overlooked during national health crisis: communities. As a member of this "National Committee for Crisis Management of the Pandemic", one of the co-authors contributed to its orientations and has witnessed first-hand some of the challenges it faced.

RECOMMENDATIONS

This experience suggests that the project of extricating the field of public health from medicine is advancing in Burkina Faso. In order to manage future crises more effectively and across different sectors, there is an urgent need to establish state structures and to strengthen public health systems. States need coordination units that have the legitimacy, authority and resources required to mobilize a variety of actors at the community, national and international levels.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in vaccine-naïve participants from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali

OBJECTIVES

The InVITE study, starting in August 2021, was designed to examine the immunogenicity of different vaccine regimens in several countries including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali. Prevaccination baseline samples were used to obtain estimates of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in the study population.

METHODS

Adult participants were enrolled upon receipt of their initial COVID-19 vaccine from August 2021 to June 2022. Demographic and comorbidity data were collected at the time of baseline sample collection. SARS-CoV-2 serum anti-Spike and anti-Nucleocapsid antibody levels were measured.

RESULTS

Samples tested included 1016, 375, 663, and 776, from DRC, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali, respectively. Only 0.8% of participants reported a prior positive SARS-CoV-2 test, while 83% and 68% had anti-Spike and anti-Nucleocapsid antibodies, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 86% over the accrual period, suggesting a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Low rates of prior positive test results may be explained by asymptomatic infections, limited access to SARS-CoV-2 test kits and health care, and inadequate surveillance. These seroprevalence rates are from a convenience sample and may not be representative of the population in general, underscoring the need for timely, well-conducted surveillance as part of global pandemic preparedness.

The Drivers of Low Vaccination Utilization in Niger

Vaccination adherence involves the expected benefit of a vaccine and the perceived risk of the disease. To develop an evidence-based communication strategy aimed at improving vaccination coverage in Niger, we conducted a mixed socio-anthropological study of the perceptions among the population on the benefit and the risk of the childhood (Expanded Program on Immunization) and the COVID-19 vaccines. Our results show that negative rumors are not a significant driver of vaccine refusal. The insufficient level of fully vaccinated, compared with partially vaccinated, children might be explained by misunderstandings around the side effects of vaccines and the necessity for full vaccination. Approximately one-fourth of the population is vaccinated against COVID-19, whereas 73.3% think that vaccines against the disease are a "good thing," and 83% of those who have heard messages promoting the vaccination approve of them. This apparent contradiction is explained by a low perception of the risks of COVID-19. More than half of the population surveyed believe that the disease is not present in the country. A large majority believe that only ill people can transmit the disease, whereas only 12.8% think they know anybody who has ever been sick with COVID-19. Three-fourths of the interviewees have seen images from around the world of persons sick or deceased from COVID-19; the same proportion has not seen any such images of affected patients in Niger. Communication to improve COVID-19 uptake should focus on the reality of the disease presence and its transmission and not on rumors surrounding the vaccines.

High pre-Delta and early-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence detected in dried blood samples from Kinshasa (D.R. Congo)

Studies on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa have yielded varying results, although authors universally agree the real burden surpasses reported cases. The primary objective of this study was to determine SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among patients attending Monkole Hospital in Kinshasa (D.R. Congo). The secondary objective was to evaluate the analytic performance of two chemiluminescence platforms: Elecsys® (Roche) and VirClia® (Vircell) on dried blood spot samples (DBS). The study population (N = 373) was recruited in two stages: a mid-2021 blood donor cohort (15.5% women) and a mid-2022 women cohort. Crude global seroprevalence was 61% (53.9%-67.8%) pre-Delta in 2021 and 90.2% (84.7%-94.2%) post-Omicron in 2022. Anti-spike (S) antibody levels significantly increased from 53.1 (31.8-131.3) U/mL in 2021 to 436.5 (219.3-950.5) U/mL in 2022 and were significantly higher above 45 years old in the 2022 population. Both platforms showed good analytic performance on DBS samples: sensitivity was 96.8% for IgG (antiN/S) (93.9%-98.5%) and 96.0% (93.0%-98.0%) for anti-S quantification. These results provide additional support for the notion that exposure to SARS-CoV-2 is more widespread than indicated by case-based surveillance and will be able to guide the pandemic response and strategy moving forward. Likewise, this study contributes evidence to the reliability of DBS as a tool for serological testing and diagnosis in resource-limited settings.

Preparing healthcare facilities in sub-Saharan Africa for future outbreaks: insights from a multi-country digital self-assessment of COVID-19 preparedness

BACKGROUND

Despite previous experience with epidemics, African healthcare systems were inadequately prepared and substantially impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Limited information about the level of COVID-19 preparedness of healthcare facilities in Africa hampers policy decision-making to fight future outbreaks in the region, while maintaining essential healthcare services running.

METHODS

Between May-November 2020, we performed a survey study with SafeCare4Covid - a free digital self-assessment application - to evaluate the COVID-19 preparedness of healthcare facilities in Africa following World Health Organization guidelines. The tool assessed (i) COVID-19-related capabilities with 31 questions; and (ii) availability of essential medical supplies with a 23-supplies checklist. Tailored quality improvement plans were provided after assessments. Information about facilities' location, type, and ownership was also collected.

RESULTS

Four hundred seventy-one facilities in 11 African countries completed the capability assessment; 412 also completed the supplies checklist. The average capability score on a scale of 0-100 (n=471) was 58.0 (interquartile range 40.0-76.0), and the average supplies score (n=412) was 61.6 (39.0-83.0). Both scores were significantly lower in rural (capability score, mean 53.6 [95%CI:50.3-57.0]/supplies score, 59.1 [55.5-62.8]) versus urban facilities (capability score, 65.2 [61.7-68.7]/supplies score, 70.7 [67.2-74.1]) (P<0.0001 for both comparisons). Likewise, lower scores were found for public versus private clinics, and for primary healthcare centres versus hospitals. Guidelines for triage and isolation, clinical management of COVID-19, staff mental support, and contact tracing forms were largely missing. Handwashing stations were partially equipped in 33% of facilities. The most missing medical supply was COVID-19 specimen collection material (71%), while 43% of facilities did not have N95/FFP2 respirators and 19% lacked medical masks.

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of public and private African facilities providing basic healthcare in rural areas, lacked fundamental COVID-19-related capabilities and life-saving personal protective equipment. Decentralization of epidemic preparedness efforts in these settings is warranted to protect healthcare workers and patients alike in future epidemics. Digital tools are of great value to timely measure and improve epidemic preparedness of healthcare facilities, inform decision-making, create a more stakeholder-broad approach and increase health-system resilience for future disease outbreaks.

Effect of distributing locally produced cloth facemasks on COVID-19-like illness and all-cause mortality-a cluster-randomised controlled trial in urban Guinea-Bissau

Facemasks have been employed to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The community effect of providing cloth facemasks on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality is unknown. In a cluster randomised trial in urban Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, clusters (geographical areas with an average of 19 houses), were randomised to an intervention or control arm using computer-generated random numbers. Between 20 July 2020 and 22 January 2021, trial participants (aged 10+ years) living in intervention clusters (n = 90) received two 2-layer cloth facemasks, while facemasks were only distributed later in control clusters (n = 91). All participants received information on COVID-19 prevention. Trial participants were followed through a telephone interview for COVID-19-like illness (3+ symptoms), care seeking, and mortality for 4 months. End-of-study home visits ensured full mortality information and distribution of facemasks to the control group. Individual level information on outcomes by trial arm was compared in logistic regression models with generalised estimating equation-based correction for cluster. Facemasks use was mandated. Facemask use in public areas was assessed by direct observation. We enrolled 39,574 trial participants among whom 95% reported exposure to groups of >20 persons and 99% reported facemasks use, with no difference between trial arms. Observed use was substantially lower (~40%) with a 3%, 95%CI: 0-6% absolute difference between control and intervention clusters. Half of those wearing a facemask wore it correctly. Few participants (532, 1.6%) reported COVID-19-like illness; proportions did not differ by trial arm: Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95%CI: 0.57-1.15. 177 (0.6%) participants reported consultations and COVID-19-like illness (OR = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.56-1.24); 89 participants (0.2%) died (OR = 1.34, 95%CI: 0.89-2.02). Hence, though trial participants were exposed to many people, facemasks were mostly not worn or not worn correctly. Providing facemasks and messages about correct use did not substantially increase their use and had limited impact on morbidity and mortality. Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04471766.

Prevalence and determinants of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 in Liberia

BACKGROUND

Evidence from resource-rich settings indicates that many people continue to have persistent symptoms following acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, called post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). Only a few studies have described PASC in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed to describe PASC in Liberia.

METHODS

We randomly sampled all people who were reported from the most populous county to the Liberian Ministry of Health (MOH) as having a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from June to August 2021. We interviewed individuals by phone 3 to 6 months later. Those with persistence of at least one symptom were considered to have PASC.

RESULTS

From among 2848 people reported to the MOH from Montserrado County during the period of interest, we randomly selected 650; of these, 548 (84.3%) were reached and 505 (92.2%) of those who were contacted were interviewed. The median age was 38 years (interquartile range (IQR), 30-49), and 43.6% were female. During acute infection, 40.2% were asymptomatic, 53.9% had mild/moderate disease and 6.9% had severe/critical disease. Among the 59.8% (n = 302) who were initially symptomatic, 50.2% (n = 152) reported at least one persistent symptom; the most common persistent symptoms were fatigue (21.2%), headache (16.2%) and cough (12.6%); 40.1% reported that PASC significantly affected their daily activities. Being hospitalized with moderate disease [adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR), 2.00 (95% CI, 1.59 to 2.80] or severe/critical disease [aPR, 2.11 (95% CI, 1.59 to 2.80)] was associated with PASC, compared with those not hospitalized. Females were more likely than males to report persistent fatigue [aPR, 1.67 (95% CI, 1.08 to 2.57)].

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that persistent symptoms may have affected a large proportion of people with initially symptomatic COVID-19 in west Africa and highlight the need to create awareness among infected people and health care professionals.

Morbidity and mortality burden of COVID-19 in rural Madagascar: results from a longitudinal cohort and nested seroprevalence study

INTRODUCTION

Three years into the pandemic, there remains significant uncertainty about the true infection and mortality burden of COVID-19 in the World Health Organization Africa region. High quality, population-representative studies in Africa are rare and tend to be conducted in national capitals or large cities, leaving a substantial gap in our understanding of the impact of COVID-19 in rural, low-resource settings. Here, we estimated the spatio-temporal morbidity and mortality burden associated with COVID-19 in a rural health district of Madagascar until the first half of 2021.

METHODS

We integrated a nested seroprevalence study within a pre-existing longitudinal cohort conducted in a representative sample of 1600 households in Ifanadiana District, Madagascar. Socio-demographic and health information was collected in combination with dried blood spots for about 6500 individuals of all ages, which were analysed to detect IgG and IgM antibodies against four specific proteins of SARS-CoV-2 in a bead-based multiplex immunoassay. We evaluated spatio-temporal patterns in COVID-19 infection history and its associations with several geographic, socio-economic and demographic factors via logistic regressions.

RESULTS

Eighteen percent of people had been infected by April-June 2021, with seroprevalence increasing with individuals' age. COVID-19 primarily spread along the only paved road and in major towns during the first epidemic wave, subsequently spreading along secondary roads during the second wave to more remote areas. Wealthier individuals and those with occupations such as commerce and formal employment were at higher risk of being infected in the first wave. Adult mortality increased in 2020, particularly for older men for whom it nearly doubled up to nearly 40 deaths per 1000. Less than 10% of mortality in this period would be directly attributed to COVID-19 deaths if known infection fatality ratios are applied to observed seroprevalence in the district.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides a very granular understanding on COVID-19 transmission and mortality in a rural population of sub-Saharan Africa and suggests that the disease burden in these areas may have been substantially underestimated.

COVAX - Time to reconsider the strategy and its target

COVAX, the international initiative supporting COVID-19 vaccination campaigns globally, is budgeted to be the costliest public health initiative in low- and middle-income countries, with over 16 billion US dollars already committed. While some claim that the target of vaccinating 70% of people worldwide is justified on equity grounds, we argue that this rationale is wrong for two reasons. First, mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns do not meet standard public health requirements for clear expected benefit, based on costs, disease burden and intervention effectiveness. Second, it constitutes a diversion of resources from more cost-effective and impactful public health programmes, thus reducing health equity. We conclude that the COVAX initiative warrants urgent review.

Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1-14 years (-7.7%, 95% PI -20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.

Funding and COVID-19 research in Africa: two years on, are the research needs of Africa being met?

BACKGROUND

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused significantly lower reported mortalities on the African continent as compared to other regions. Yet, many countries on the continent are still contending with the devastating economic, social and indirect health impacts. African researchers and policy makers have identified research priority areas which take cognisance of the unique research needs of African countries. A baseline assessment of the alignment of funded research in Africa to these priorities and World Health Organization's COVID-19 research priorities was undertaken in July, 2020. We present a two-year update to this analysis of funded COVID-19 research in Africa.

METHODS

Data captured in the UK Collaborative on Development Research and Global Research Collaboration for Infectious Disease Preparedness COVID-19 Research Project Tracker as of 15th July, 2022 was analysed. An additional analysis of institutions receiving funding for COVID-19 research is presented. We also analysed the change in funding for COVID-19 research in Africa since July, 2020.

RESULTS

The limited COVID-19 research identified in Africa early in the pandemic has persisted over the subsequent two-year period assessed. When number of projects are considered, governmental funders based in Europe and United States supported the most research. Only nine research funders based in Africa were identified. A number of partnerships between African institutions and institutions based on other continents were identified, however, most research projects were undertaken in research institutions based in Africa only. Our findings highlight the relevance of the WHO research priorities for the pandemic response in Africa. Many research questions raised by African researchers remain unaddressed, among which are questions related to clinical management of COVID-19 infections in Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

Two years after the identification of Africa's COVID-19 research priorities, the findings suggest a missed opportunity in new research funding to answer pertinent questions for the pandemic response in Africa.

The WHO African Region Initiative on Engaging Civil Society Organizations in Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Best Practices and Lessons Learned for a More Effective Engagement of Communities in Responding to Public Health Emergencies

Engaging communities is a key factor in efficient response to public health emergencies (PHE). Previous and recent outbreaks have shown that civil society organizations (CSOs) can mobilize the communities to better prepare and respond to a PHE. Consequently, the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Africa (AFRO) implemented an initiative to partner with community leaders by engaging CSOs. The Civil Society Organization Initiative (CSO Initiative) aims to work directly with well-established community-based organizations to accelerate whole-of-society preparation and response. Twenty-three CSOs from 12 WHO African Region Member States have been supported financially and technically to implement effective community-based interventions to respond to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. After 1 year of implementation (2021), the successes, challenges, and recommendations for maximizing future engagements with CSOs are outlined. As the COVID-19 outbreak is again underlining, partnering with established CSOs to engage diverse social groups from various communities can help provide a timely and efficient response to a PHE.

Excess mortality in 22 European countries in 2020 and 2021: relationship with socioeconomic indicators

AIMS

For better understanding of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in different countries, we studied the excess mortality from any cause during 2020 and 2021 in 22 European countries, and its relationship with three socioeconomic variables: life expectancy at birth in 2019, per capita income, and low education level.

METHODS

Using an ecological design, we analyzed excess mortality data between January 2020 and December 2021 in 22 European countries, obtained from the EuroMOMO surveillance system. Using weekly Z-score data for each country, we estimated the annual average deviation in mortality during 2020 and 2021 for each country. We analyzed possible relationships between the excess mortality and three independent variables: gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) in 2020, life expectancy at birth in 2019, and proportion of the population over age 18 years with a lower than secondary education level in 2018.

RESULTS

In the 22 European countries analyzed, the total number of excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 was 800,011 (11%) more than expected, with deaths among those aged 65 years and over accounting for 87.66% of these. Excess mortality was higher in 2020, especially in Spain, UK, Italy, and France. In 2021, excess mortality was highest in Hungary, the Netherlands, France, and Germany. Excess mortality during 2021 was inversely correlated with life expectancy (r =-.489, p = .021) and income level (r =-.550, p = .008).

CONCLUSION

Reducing socioeconomic inequalities among countries not only improves conditions of most disadvantages but also will help to reduce excess of mortality from future pandemics.

Reduced incidence of respiratory, gastrointestinal and malaria infections among children during the COVID-19 pandemic in Western Kenya: An analysis of facility-based and weekly diaries data

Background

Epidemics can cause significant disruptions of essential health care services. This was evident in West-Africa during the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak, raising concerns that COVID-19 would have similar devastating consequences for the continent. Indeed, official facility-based records show a reduction in health care visits after the onset of COVID-19 in Kenya. Our question is whether this observed reduction was caused by lower access to health care or by reduced incidence of communicable diseases resulting from reduced mobility and social contacts.

Methods

We analysed monthly facility-based data from 2018 to 2020, and weekly health diaries data digitally collected by trained fieldworkers between February and November 2020 from 342 households, including 1974 individuals, in Kisumu and Kakamega Counties, Kenya. Diaries data was collected as part of an ongoing longitudinal study of a digital health insurance scheme (Kakamega), and universal health coverage implementation (Kisumu). We assessed the weekly incidence of self-reported medical symptoms, formal and informal health-seeking behaviour, and foregone care in the diaries and compared it with facility-based records. Linear probability regressions with household fixed-effects were performed to compare the weekly incidence of health outcomes before and after COVID-19.

Results

Facility-based data showed a decrease in health care utilization for respiratory infections, enteric illnesses, and malaria, after start of COVID-19 measures in Kenya in March 2020. The weekly diaries confirmed this decrease in respiratory and enteric symptoms, and malaria / fever, mainly in the paediatric population. In terms of health care seeking behaviour, our diaries data find a temporary shift in consultations from health care centres to pharmacists / chemists / medicine vendors for a few weeks during the pandemic, but no increase in foregone care. According to the diaries, for adults the incidence of communicable diseases/symptoms rebounded after COVID-19 mobility restrictions were lifted, while for children the effects persisted.

Conclusions

COVID-19-related containment measures in Western Kenya were accompanied by a decline in respiratory infections, enteric illnesses, and malaria / fever mainly in children. Data from a population-based survey and facility-based records aligned regarding this finding despite the temporary shift to non-facility-based consultations and confirmed that the drop in utilization of health care services was not due to decreased accessibility, but rather to a lower incidence of these infections.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among blood donors in Uganda: 2019-2022

BACKGROUND

The true burden of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries remains poorly characterized, especially in Africa. Even prior to the availability of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, countries in Africa had lower numbers of reported COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths than other regions globally.

METHODS

Ugandan blood donors were evaluated between October 2019 and April 2022 for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N), spike (S), and five variants of the S protein using multiplexed electrochemiluminescence immunoassays (MesoScale Diagnostics, Rockville, MD). Seropositivity for N and S was assigned using manufacturer-provided cutoffs and trends in seroprevalence were estimated by quarter. Statistically significant associations between N and S antibody seropositivity and donor characteristics in November-December 2021 were assessed by chi-square tests.

RESULTS

A total of 5393 blood unit samples from donors were evaluated. N and S seropositivity increased throughout the pandemic to 82.6% in January-April 2022. Among seropositive individuals, N and S antibody levels increased ≥9-fold over the study period. In November-December 2021, seropositivity to N and S antibody was higher among repeat donors (61.3%) compared with new donors (55.1%; p = .043) and among donors from Kampala (capital city of Uganda) compared with rural regions (p = .007). Seropositivity to S antibody was significantly lower among HIV-seropositive individuals (58.8% vs. 84.9%; p = .009).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite previously reported low numbers of COVID-19 cases and related deaths in Uganda, high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and increasing antibody levels among blood donors indicated that the country experienced high levels of infection over the course of the pandemic.

Estimating the economic impact of COVID-19 disruption on access to sexual and reproductive health and rights in Eastern and Southern Africa

Background

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) resulted in the disruption of Sexual and Reproductive Health Rights (SRHR) services in the Eastern and Southern Africa region. To date, studies estimating the impact of COVID-19 disruptions have mainly focused on SRHR services without estimating the economic implication.

Method

We used national service coverage data on the effectiveness of interventions from the lives saved tool (LiST), a mathematical modeling tool that estimates the effects of service coverage change in mortality. We computed years lost due to COVID-19 disruption on SRHR using life expectancy at birth, number of years of life lost due to child mortality, and life expectancy at average maternal death. We calculated the economic value of the lives saved, using the values of statistical life year for each of the countries, comparing 2019 (pre-COVID-19) to 2020 (COVID-19 era).

Findings

The total life-years lost were 1,335,663, with 1,056,174 life-years lost attributed to child mortality and 279,249 linked to maternal mortalities, with high case-fatality rates in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, and Tanzania. The findings show COVID-19 disruptions on SRHR services between 2019 and 2020 resulted in US$ 3.6 billion losses, with the highest losses in Angola (USD 777 million), South Africa (USD 539 million), and Democratic Republic of Congo (USD 361 million).

Conclusion

The monetized value of disability adjusted life years can be used as evidence for advocacy, increased investment, and appropriate mitigation strategies. Countries should strengthen their health systems functionality, incorporating and transforming lessons learned from shock events.

Biological mechanisms underpinning the development of long COVID

As COVID-19 evolves from a pandemic to an endemic disease, the already staggering number of people that have been or will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 is only destined to increase, and the majority of humanity will be infected. It is well understood that COVID-19, like many other viral infections, leaves a significant fraction of the infected with prolonged consequences. Continued high number of SARS-CoV-2 infections, viral evolution with escape from post-infection and vaccinal immunity, and reinfections heighten the potential impact of Long COVID. Hence, the impact of COVID-19 on human health will be seen for years to come until more effective vaccines and pharmaceutical treatments become available. To that effect, it is imperative that the mechanisms underlying the clinical manifestations of Long COVID be elucidated. In this article, we provide an in-depth analysis of the evidence on several potential mechanisms of Long COVID and discuss their relevance to its pathogenesis.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 introductions in Mozambique using pandemic-scale phylogenies: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

From the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, global sequencing efforts have generated an unprecedented amount of genomic data. Nonetheless, unequal sampling between high-income and low-income countries hinders the implementation of genomic surveillance systems at the global and local level. Filling the knowledge gaps of genomic information and understanding pandemic dynamics in low-income countries is essential for public health decision making and to prepare for future pandemics. In this context, we aimed to discover the timing and origin of SARS-CoV-2 variant introductions in Mozambique, taking advantage of pandemic-scale phylogenies.

METHODS

We did a retrospective, observational study in southern Mozambique. Patients from Manhiça presenting with respiratory symptoms were recruited, and those enrolled in clinical trials were excluded. Data were included from three sources: (1) a prospective hospital-based surveillance study (MozCOVID), recruiting patients living in Manhiça, attending the Manhiça district hospital, and fulfilling the criteria of suspected COVID-19 case according to WHO; (2) symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection recruited by the National Surveillance system; and (3) sequences from SARS-CoV-2-infected Mozambican cases deposited on the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data database. Positive samples amenable for sequencing were analysed. We used Ultrafast Sample placement on Existing tRees to understand the dynamics of beta and delta waves, using available genomic data. This tool can reconstruct a phylogeny with millions of sequences by efficient sample placement in a tree. We reconstructed a phylogeny (~7·6 million sequences) adding new and publicly available beta and delta sequences.

FINDINGS

A total of 5793 patients were recruited between Nov 1, 2020, and Aug 31, 2021. During this time, 133 328 COVID-19 cases were reported in Mozambique. 280 good quality new SARS-CoV-2 sequences were obtained after the inclusion criteria were applied and an additional 652 beta (B.1.351) and delta (B.1.617.2) public sequences were included from Mozambique. We evaluated 373 beta and 559 delta sequences. We identified 187 beta introductions (including 295 sequences), divided in 42 transmission groups and 145 unique introductions, mostly from South Africa, between August, 2020 and July, 2021. For delta, we identified 220 introductions (including 494 sequences), with 49 transmission groups and 171 unique introductions, mostly from the UK, India, and South Africa, between April and November, 2021.

INTERPRETATION

The timing and origin of introductions suggests that movement restrictions effectively avoided introductions from non-African countries, but not from surrounding countries. Our results raise questions about the imbalance between the consequences of restrictions and health benefits. This new understanding of pandemic dynamics in Mozambique can be used to inform public health interventions to control the spread of new variants.

FUNDING

European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials, European Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca.

Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda

INTRODUCTION

Africa was threatened by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the limited health care infrastructure. Rwanda has consistently used non-pharmaceutical strategies, such as lockdown, curfew, and enforcement of prevention measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Despite the mitigation measures taken, the country has faced a series of outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we investigate the nature of epidemic phenomena in Rwanda and the impact of imported cases on the spread of COVID-19 using endemic-epidemic spatio-temporal models. Our study provides a framework for understanding the dynamics of the epidemic in Rwanda and monitoring its phenomena to inform public health decision-makers for timely and targeted interventions.

RESULTS

The findings provide insights into the effects of lockdown and imported infections in Rwanda's COVID-19 outbreaks. The findings showed that imported infections are dominated by locally transmitted cases. The high incidence was predominant in urban areas and at the borders of Rwanda with its neighboring countries. The inter-district spread of COVID-19 was very limited due to mitigation measures taken in Rwanda.

CONCLUSION

The study recommends using evidence-based decisions in the management of epidemics and integrating statistical models in the analytics component of the health information system.

Assessment of lung injury severity using ultrasound in critically ill COVID-19 patients in resource limited settings

BACKGROUND

Lung ultrasound is a non-invasive tool available at the bedside for the assessment of critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of lung ultrasound in assessing the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in critically-ill patients in a low-income setting.

METHODS

We conducted a 12-month observational study in a university hospital intensive care unit (ICU) in Mali, on patients admitted for COVID-19 as diagnosed by a positive polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 and/or typical lung computed tomography scan findings.

RESULTS

The inclusion criteria was met by 156 patients with a median age of 59 years. Almost all patients (96%) had respiratory failure at admission and many needed respiratory support (121/156, 78%). The feasibility of lung ultrasound was very good, with 1802/1872 (96%) quadrants assessed. The reproducibility was good with an intra-class correlation coefficient of elementary patterns of 0.74 (95% CI 0.65, 0.82) and a coefficient of repeatability of lung ultrasound score < 3 for an overall score of 24. Confluent B lines were the most common lesions found in patients (155/156). The overall mean ultrasound score was 23 ± 5.4, and was significantly correlated with oxygen saturation (Pearson correlation coefficient of - 0.38, p < 0.001). More than half of the patients died (86/156, 55.1%). The factors associated with mortality, as shown by multivariable analysis, were: the patients' age; number of organ failures; therapeutic anticoagulation, and lung ultrasound score.

CONCLUSION

Lung ultrasound was feasible and contributed to characterize lung injury in critically-ill COVID-19 patients in a low income setting. Lung ultrasound score was associated with oxygenation impairment and mortality.

Priority age targets for COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply

The worldwide inequitable access to vaccination claims for a re-assessment of policies that could minimize the COVID-19 burden in low-income countries. Nine months after the launch of the national vaccination program in March 2021, only 3.4% of the Ethiopian population received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to estimate the level of immunity accrued before the launch of vaccination in the Southwest Shewa Zone (SWSZ) and to evaluate the impact of alternative age priority vaccination targets in a context of limited vaccine supply. The model was informed with available epidemiological evidence and detailed contact data collected across different geographical settings (urban, rural, or remote). We found that, during the first year of the pandemic, the mean proportion of critical cases occurred in SWSZ attributable to infectors under 30 years of age would range between 24.9 and 48.0%, depending on the geographical setting. During the Delta wave, the contribution of this age group in causing critical cases was estimated to increase on average to 66.7-70.6%. Our findings suggest that, when considering the vaccine product available at the time (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19; 65% efficacy against infection after 2 doses), prioritizing the elderly for vaccination remained the best strategy to minimize the disease burden caused by Delta, irrespectively of the number of available doses. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 50 years would have averted 40 (95%PI: 18-60), 90 (95%PI: 61-111), and 62 (95%PI: 21-108) critical cases per 100,000 residents in urban, rural, and remote areas, respectively. Vaccination of all individuals aged ≥ 30 years would have averted an average of 86-152 critical cases per 100,000 individuals, depending on the setting considered. Despite infections among children and young adults likely caused 70% of critical cases during the Delta wave in SWSZ, most vulnerable ages should remain a key priority target for vaccination against COVID-19.

Care seeking for under-five children and vaccine perceptions during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lagos State, Nigeria: a qualitative exploratory study

OBJECTIVE

To explore healthcare seeking practices for children and the context-specific direct and indirect effects of public health interventions during the first two waves of COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria. We also explored decision-making around vaccine acceptance at the start of COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in Nigeria.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A qualitative explorative study involving 19 semistructured interviews with healthcare providers from public and private primary health facilities and 32 interviews with caregivers of under-five children in Lagos from December 2020 to March 2021. Participants were purposively selected from healthcare facilities to include community health workers, nurses and doctors, and interviews were conducted in quiet locations at facilities. A data-driven reflexive thematic analysis according to Braun and Clark was conducted.

FINDINGS

Two themes were developed: appropriating COVID-19 in belief systems, and ambiguity about COVID-19 preventive measures. The interpretation of COVID-19 ranged from fearful to considering it as a 'scam' or 'falsification from the government'. Underlying distrust in government fuelled COVID-19 misperceptions. Care seeking for children under five was affected, as facilities were seen as contagious places for COVID-19. Caregivers resorted to alternative care and self-management of childhood illnesses. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was a major concern among healthcare providers compared with community members at the time of vaccine roll-out in Lagos, Nigeria. Indirect impacts of COVID-19 lockdown included diminished household income, worsening food insecurity, mental health challenges for caregivers and reduced clinic visits for immunisation.

CONCLUSION

The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lagos was associated with reductions in care seeking for children, clinic attendance for childhood immunisations and household income. Strengthening health and social support systems with context-specific interventions and correcting misinformation is crucial to building adaptive capacity for response to future pandemics.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12621001071819.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on general health and malaria control in Ghana: a qualitative study with mothers and health care professionals

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has severely impacted health systems and the management of non-COVID-19 diseases, including malaria, globally. The pandemic has hit sub-Saharan Africa less than expected; even considering large underreporting, the direct COVID-19 burden was minor compared to the Global North. However, the indirect effects of the pandemic, e.g. on socio-economic inequality and health care systems, may have been more disruptive. Following a quantitative analysis from northern Ghana, which showed significant reductions in overall outpatient department visits and malaria cases during the first year of COVID-19, this qualitative study aims to provide further explanations to those quantitative findings.

METHODS

In the Northern Region of Ghana, 72 participants, consisting of 18 health care professionals (HCPs) and 54 mothers of children under the age of five, were recruited in urban and rural districts. Data were collected using focus group discussions with mothers and through key informant interviews with HCPs.

RESULTS

Three main themes occurred. The first theme-general effects of the pandemic-includes impacts on finances, food security, health service provision as well as education and hygiene. Many women lost their jobs, which increased their dependance on males, children had to drop out of school, and families had to cope with food shortages and were considering migration. HCPs had problems reaching the communities, suffered stigmatisation and were often barely protected against the virus. The second theme-effects on health-seeking-includes fear of infection, lack of COVID-19 testing capacities, and reduced access to clinics and treatment. The third theme-effects on malaria-includes disruptions of malaria preventive measures. Clinical discrimination between malaria and COVID-19 symptoms was difficult and HCPs observed increases in severe malaria cases in health facilities due to late reporting.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic has had large collateral impacts on mothers, children and HCPs. In addition to overall negative effects on families and communities, access to and quality of health services was severely impaired, including serious implications on malaria. This crisis has highlighted weaknesses of health care systems globally, including the malaria situation; a holistic analysis of the direct and indirect effects of this pandemic and an adapted strengthening of health care systems is essential to be prepared for the future.

Integrated approaches to COVID-19 emergency response in fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable settings: a public health policy brief

In the absence of fully effective measures to prevent and treat COVID-19, the limited access to and hesitancy about vaccines, the prolongation of the on-going pandemic is likely. This underscores the need to continue to respond and maintain preparedness, preferably using a more sustainable approach. A sustainable management is particularly important in fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable countries of sub-Saharan Africa given several peculiar challenges. This Viewpoint proposes policy options to guide transitioning from current COVID-19 emergency response interventions to longer-term and more sustainable responses in such settings. In the long term, a shift in policy from a vertical to a more effective approach should integrate response coordination, surveillance, case management, risk communication and operational support, among other elements, for better results. We call on public health policymakers, partners and donors to support full implementation of these policy options in a holistic manner to encompass all emerging public health threats.

Quantifying excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in The Gambia: a time-series analysis of three health and demographic surveillance systems

OBJECTIVES

Estimates for COVID-19-related excess mortality for African populations using local data are needed to design and implement effective control policies.

METHODS

We applied time-series analysis using data from three health and demographic surveillance systems in The Gambia (Basse, Farafenni, and Keneba) to examine pandemic-related excess mortality during 2020, when the first SARS-CoV-2 wave was observed, compared to the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019).

RESULTS

Across the three sites, average mortality during the pre-pandemic period and the total deaths during 2020 were 1512 and 1634, respectively (Basse: 1099 vs 1179, Farafenni: 316 vs 351, Keneba: 98 vs 104). The overall annual crude mortality rates per 100,000 (95% CI) were 589 (559, 619) and 599 (571, 629) for the pre-pandemic and 2020 periods, respectively. The adjusted excess mortality rate was 8.8 (-34.3, 67.6) per 100,000 person-month with the adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 1.01 (0.94,1.11). The age-stratified analysis showed excess mortality in Basse for infants (aRR = 1.22 [1.04, 1.46]) and in Farafenni for the 65+ years age group (aRR = 1.19 [1, 1.44]).

CONCLUSION

We did not find significant excess overall mortality in 2020 in The Gambia. However, some age groups may have been at risk of excess death. Public health response in countries with weak health systems needs to consider vulnerable age groups and the potential for collateral damage.

High anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among unvaccinated mother-child pairs from a rural setting in north-eastern Tanzania during the second wave of COVID-19

Background

The reported infection rates and burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in low- and middle-income countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively low compared to the rates and burden in Europe and America, partly due to limited testing capability. Unlike many countries, Tanzania has implemented neither mass screening nor restrictive measures such as lockdowns to date. The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in rural mainland Tanzania is largely unknown.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted between April and October 2021 to assess the anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among mother-child pairs (n = 634 children, n = 518 mothers) in a rural setting in north-eastern Tanzania.

Results

A very high prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titres was found, with seroprevalence rates ranging from 29% among mothers and 40% among children, with a dynamic peak in seropositivity incidence at the end of July/early August being revealed. Significant differences in age, socioeconomic status, and body composition were associated with seropositivity in mothers and children. No significant associations were observed between seropositivity and comorbidities, including anaemia, diabetes, malaria, and HIV.

Conclusions

The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a rural region of Tanzania during 2021 was high, indicating a much higher infection rate in rural Tanzania compared to that reported in the UK and USA during the same period. Ongoing immune surveillance may be vital to monitoring the burden of viral infection in rural settings without access to molecular genotyping, where the load of communicable diseases may mask COVID-19. Surveillance could be implemented in tandem with the intensification of vaccination strategies.

Antibiotic dispensing practices during COVID-19 and implications for antimicrobial resistance (AMR): parallel mystery client studies in Uganda and Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Over-the-counter antibiotic access is common in low-and-middle-income countries and this may accelerate antimicrobial resistance. Our study explores critical aspects of the drug seller-client interaction and antibiotic dispensing patterns for simulated COVID-19 symptoms during the pandemic in two study sites in Tanzania and Uganda, countries with different government responses to the pandemic.

METHODS

Research assistants posing as clients approached different types of drug sellers such as pharmacies (Pharms), drug shops (DSs), and accredited drug dispensing outlets (ADDOs) in Mwanza, Tanzania (nPharms =  415, nADDOs = 116) and Mbarara, Uganda (nPharms = 440, nDSs  = 67), from June 10 to July 30, 2021. The mystery clients held no prescription and sought advice for simulated COVID-19 symptoms from the drug sellers. They documented the quality of their interaction with sellers and the type of drugs dispensed.

RESULTS

Adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures and vigilance to COVID-19 symptoms was low in both sites but significantly higher in Uganda than in Tanzania. A higher percentage of drug sellers in Mbarara (Pharms = 36%, DSs = 35%, P-value = 0.947) compared to Mwanza (Pharms = 9%, ADDOs = 4%, P-value = 0.112) identified the client's symptoms as possibly COVID-19. More than three-quarters of drug sellers that sold prescription-only medicines in both Mbarara (Pharms = 86%, DSs = 89%) and Mwanza (Pharms = 93%, ADDOs = 97%) did not ask the MCs for a prescription. A relatively high percentage of drug sellers that sold prescription-only medicines in Mwanza (Pharms = 51%, ADDOs = 67%) compared to Mbarara (Pharms = 31%, DSs = 42%) sold a partial course without any hesitation. Of those who sold antibiotics, a higher proportion of drug sellers in Mbarara (Pharms = 73%, DSs = 78%, P-value = 0.580) compared to Mwanza (Pharms = 40% ADDOs = 46%, P-value = 0.537) sold antibiotics relevant for treating secondary bacterial infections in COVID-19 patients.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights low vigilance towards COVID-19 symptoms, widespread propensity to dispense prescription-only antibiotics without a prescription, and to dispense partial doses of antibiotics. This implies that drug dispensing related to COVID-19 may further drive AMR. Our study also highlights the need for more efforts to improve antibiotic stewardship among drug sellers in response to COVID-19 and to prepare them for future health emergencies.

Pregnancy outcomes and vaccine effectiveness during the period of omicron as the variant of concern, INTERCOVID-2022: a multinational, observational study

BACKGROUND

In 2021, we showed an increased risk associated with COVID-19 in pregnancy. Since then, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has undergone genetic mutations. We aimed to examine the effects on maternal and perinatal outcomes of COVID-19 during pregnancy, and evaluate vaccine effectiveness, when omicron (B.1.1.529) was the variant of concern.

METHODS

INTERCOVID-2022 is a large, prospective, observational study, involving 41 hospitals across 18 countries. Each woman with real-time PCR or rapid test, laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in pregnancy was compared with two unmatched women without a COVID-19 diagnosis who were recruited concomitantly and consecutively in pregnancy or at delivery. Mother and neonate dyads were followed until hospital discharge. Primary outcomes were maternal morbidity and mortality index (MMMI), severe neonatal morbidity index (SNMI), and severe perinatal morbidity and mortality index (SPMMI). Vaccine effectiveness was estimated, adjusted by maternal risk profile.

FINDINGS

We enrolled 4618 pregnant women from Nov 27, 2021 (the day after WHO declared omicron a variant of concern), to June 30, 2022: 1545 (33%) women had a COVID-19 diagnosis (median gestation 36·7 weeks [IQR 29·0-38·9]) and 3073 (67%) women, with similar demographic characteristics, did not have a COVID-19 diagnosis. Overall, women with a diagnosis had an increased risk for MMMI (relative risk [RR] 1·16 [95% CI 1·03-1·31]) and SPMMI (RR 1·21 [95% CI 1·00-1·46]). Women with a diagnosis, compared with those without a diagnosis, also had increased risks of SNMI (RR 1·23 [95% CI 0·88-1·71]), although the lower bounds of the 95% CI crossed unity. Unvaccinated women with a COVID-19 diagnosis had a greater risk of MMMI (RR 1·36 [95% CI 1·12-1·65]). Severe COVID-19 symptoms in the total sample increased the risk of severe maternal complications (RR 2·51 [95% CI 1·84-3·43]), perinatal complications (RR 1·84 [95% CI 1·02-3·34]), and referral, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or death (RR 11·83 [95% CI 6·67-20·97]). Severe COVID-19 symptoms in unvaccinated women increased the risk of MMMI (RR 2·88 [95% CI 2·02-4·12]) and referral, ICU admission, or death (RR 20·82 [95% CI 10·44-41·54]). 2886 (63%) of 4618 total participants had at least a single dose of any vaccine, and 2476 (54%) of 4618 had either complete or booster doses. Vaccine effectiveness (all vaccines combined) for severe complications of COVID-19 for all women with a complete regimen was 48% (95% CI 22-65) and 76% (47-89) after a booster dose. For women with a COVID-19 diagnosis, vaccine effectiveness of all vaccines combined for women with a complete regimen was 74% (95% CI 48-87) and 91% (65-98) after a booster dose.

INTERPRETATION

COVID-19 in pregnancy, during the first 6 months of omicron as the variant of concern, was associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity and mortality, especially among symptomatic and unvaccinated women. Women with complete or boosted vaccine doses had reduced risk for severe symptoms, complications, and death. Vaccination coverage among pregnant women remains a priority.

FUNDING

None.

Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiological approaches to inform COVID-19 surveillance and control: a systematic review of statistical and modelling methods in Africa

OBJECTIVE

Various studies have been published to better understand the underlying spatial and temporal dynamics of COVID-19. This review sought to identify different spatial and spatio-temporal modelling methods that have been applied to COVID-19 and examine influential covariates that have been reportedly associated with its risk in Africa.

DESIGN

Systematic review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

DATA SOURCES

Thematically mined keywords were used to identify refereed studies conducted between January 2020 and February 2022 from the following databases: PubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE via Proquest, CINHAL via EBSCOhost and Coronavirus Research Database via ProQuest. A manual search through the reference list of studies was also conducted.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Peer-reviewed studies that demonstrated the application of spatial and temporal approaches to COVID-19 outcomes.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

A standardised extraction form based on critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies checklist was used to extract the meta-data of the included studies. A validated scoring criterion was used to assess studies based on their methodological relevance and quality.

RESULTS

Among 2065 hits in five databases, title and abstract screening yielded 827 studies of which 22 were synthesised and qualitatively analysed. The most common socioeconomic variable was population density. HIV prevalence was the most common epidemiological indicator, while temperature was the most common environmental indicator. Thirteen studies (59%) implemented diverse formulations of spatial and spatio-temporal models incorporating unmeasured factors of COVID-19 and the subtle influence of time and space. Cluster analyses were used across seven studies (32%) to explore COVID-19 variation and determine whether observed patterns were random.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 modelling in Africa is still in its infancy, and a range of spatial and spatio-temporal methods have been employed across diverse settings. Strengthening routine data systems remains critical for generating estimates and understanding factors that drive spatial variation in vulnerable populations and temporal variation in pandemic progression.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021279767.

The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic

The World Health Organization has a mandate to compile and disseminate statistics on mortality, and we have been tracking the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 2020¹. Reported statistics on COVID-19 mortality are problematic for many countries owing to variations in testing access, differential diagnostic capacity and inconsistent certification of COVID-19 as cause of death. Beyond what is directly attributable to it, the pandemic has caused extensive collateral damage that has led to losses of lives and livelihoods. Here we report a comprehensive and consistent measurement of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating excess deaths, by month, for 2020 and 2021. We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using an overdispersed Poisson count framework that applies Bayesian inference techniques to quantify uncertainty. We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period. There are wide variations in the excess death estimates across the six World Health Organization regions. We describe the data and methods used to generate these estimates and highlight the need for better reporting where gaps persist. We discuss various summary measures, and the hazards of ranking countries' epidemic responses.

Population-based assessment of the burden of COVID-19 infection in African countries: a first-year report card and public health implications

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes a global health threat and poses a major burden on the African continent. We assessed the real-world burden of COVID-19 infection in African Union (AU) member states to determine the distributional patterns of epidemiological measures during the first 1 year of the pandemic.

Methods

This retrospective cross-sectional study utilized COVID-19 data from publicly available data repositories of the African Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Our World in Data for the period February 2020 to January 2021. AU member states were classified into low, medium, and high burdens based on COVID-19 morbidity. We conducted descriptive and inferential analyses of COVID-19-reported cases, deaths, recoveries, active cases, COVID-19 tests, and epidemiological measures that included morbidity and mortality rates, case fatality rate (CFR), and case ratios.

Results

A total of 3.21 million cases were reported during the 1-year period, with 2.6 million recoveries, 536,784 cases remaining active, and 77,486 deaths. Most countries (49.1%, n = 26) in AU experienced a low burden of COVID-19 infection compared to 28.3% (n = 15) with medium burden and 22.6% (n = 12) with high burden. AU nations with a high burden of the disease were mainly in the northern and southern regions. South Africa recorded the highest number of cases (1.31 million), followed by Morocco with 457,625 and Tunisia with 175,065 cases. Correspondently, death tolls for these countries were 36,467, 7888, and 5528 deaths, respectively. Of the total COVID-19 tests performed (83.8 million) during the first 1 year, 62.43% were from high-burden countries. The least testing occurred in the medium-burden (18.42%) countries. The overall CFR of AU was 2.21%. A morbidity rate of 327.52/105 population and mortality rate of 5.96/105 population were recorded during the first 1-year period with significant variations (p < 0.0001) across burden levels. Continental morbidity and mortality rates of 17,359/105 and 315.933/105 populations were recorded with significant correlation (r = 0.863, p < 0.0001) between them and variations across selected epidemiological measures by COVID-19 burden levels.

Conclusion

Understanding the true burden of the disease in AU countries is important for establishing the impact of the pandemic in the African continent and for intervention planning, preparedness, and deployment of resources during COVID-19 surges and future pandemics.

Framing the future of the COVID-19 response operations in 2022 in the WHO African region

BACKGROUND

With the evolving epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 in Africa, the response actions and lessons learnt during the pandemic's past two years, SARS-COV 2 will certainly continue to circulate in African countries in 2022 and beyond. As countries in the African continent need to be more prepared and plan to 'live with the virus' for the upcoming two years and after and at the same time mitigate risks by protecting the future most vulnerable and those responsible for maintaining essential services, WHO AFRO is anticipating four interim scenarios of the evolution of the pandemic in 2022 and beyond in the region.

OBJECTIVE

In preparation for the rollout of response actions given the predicted scenarios, WHO AFRO has identified ten strategic orientations and areas of focus for supporting member states and partners in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa in 2022 and beyond.

METHODS

WHO analysed trends of the transmissions since the first case in the African continent and reviewed lessons learnt over the past months.

RESULTS

Establishing a core and agile team solely dedicated to the COVID-19 response at the WHO AFRO, the emergency hubs, and WCOs will improve the effectiveness of the response and address identified challenges. The team will collaborate with the various clusters of the regional office, and other units and subunits in the WCOs supported with good epidemics intelligence. COVID-19 pandemic has afflicted global humanity at unprecedented levels.

CONCLUSION

Two years later and while starting the third year of the COVID-19 response, we now need to change and adapt our strategies, tools and approaches in responding timely and effectively to the pandemic in Africa and save more lives.

The resilience of two departmental health insurance units during the COVID-19 pandemic in Senegal

BACKGROUND

In its pursuit of solutions for universal health coverage (UHC), Senegal has set up two departmental health insurance units (UDAMs) since 2014. Few studies on the resilience of health systems in Africa have examined health insurance organisations. This article aims to understand how these two UDAMs have been resilient during the COVID-19 pandemic and the restrictive measures imposed by the State to maintain services to their members and reimbursements to healthcare providers.

METHODS

This study was a multicase study with multiple levels of analysis using a conceptual framework of resilience and analysis of organisational configurations. Empirical data are derived from document analysis, observations for 6 months and 17 qualitative in-depth interviews.

RESULTS

The results identified three main configurations concerning (1) safety and hygiene, (2) organisation and planning and (3) communication for sustainable payment. The UDAM faced the pandemic with resilience processes to absorb the shock and maintain service to their members. The UDAM learnt positive lessons from crisis management, such as remote work or the ability to support members in their care in hospitals away from their headquarters. They have innovated (transformative resilience) with the organisation of electronic payment and the use of social networks to raise funds and communicate with members. Strengthening their effectiveness after the shock of the departure of the donors in 2017 contributed to the adaptation and even transformation from the pandemic shock of 2020 and 2021. The study shows that leadership, team dynamics and adaptation to contexts are drivers of resilience processes.

CONCLUSION

Both UDAMs adapted to the shocks of the pandemic and government measures to maintain the services of their members and their organisational routine. This resilience confirms that UDAMs are one of the possible solutions for UHC in the Sahel.

Impact of good governance, economic growth and universal health coverage on COVID-19 infection and case fatality rates in Africa

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted lives across all countries and communities. It significantly reduced the global economic output and dealt health systems across the world a serious blow. There is growing evidence showing the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact it has on health systems, which should help to draw lessons for further consolidating and realizing universal health coverage (UHC) in all countries, complemented by more substantial government commitment and good governance, and continued full implementation of crucial policies and plans to avert COVID-19 and similar pandemic threats in the future. Therefore, the objective of the study was to assess the impact of good governance, economic growth and UHC on the COVID-19 infection rate and case fatality rate (CFR) among African countries.

METHODS

We employed an analytical ecological study design to assess the association between COVID-19 CFR and infection rate as dependent variables, and governance, economic development and UHC as independent variables. We extracted data from publicly available databases (i.e., Worldometer, Worldwide Governance Indicators, Our World in Data and WHO Global Health Observatory Repository). We employed a multivariable linear regression model to examine the association between the dependent variables and the set of explanatory variables. STATA version 14 software was used for data analysis.

RESULTS

All 54 African countries were covered by this study. The median observed COVID-19 CFR and infection rate were 1.65% and 233.46%, respectively. Results of multiple regression analysis for predicting COVID-19 infection rate indicated that COVID-19 government response stringency index (β = 0.038; 95% CI 0.001, 0.076; P = 0.046), per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (β = 0.514; 95% CI 0.158, 0.87; P = 0.006) and infectious disease components of UHC (β = 0.025; 95% CI 0.005, 0.045; P = 0.016) were associated with COVID-19 infection rates, while noncommunicable disease components of UHC (β = -0.064; 95% CI -0.114; -0.015; P = 0.012), prevalence of obesity among adults (β = 0.112; 95% CI 0.044; 0.18; P = 0.002) and per capita GDP (β = -0.918; 95% CI -1.583; -0.254; P = 0.008) were associated with COVID-19 CFR.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that good governance practices, favourable economic indicators and UHC have a bearing on COVID-19 infection rate and CFR. Effective health system response through a primary healthcare approach and progressively taking measures to grow their economy and increase funding to the health sector to mitigate the risk of similar future pandemics would require African countries to move towards UHC, improve governance practices and ensure economic growth in order to reduce the impact of pandemics on populations.

SARS-CoV-2 at the Human-Animal Interface: Implication for Global Public Health from an African Perspective

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become the most far-reaching public health crisis of modern times. Several efforts are underway to unravel its root cause as well as to proffer adequate preventive or inhibitive measures. Zoonotic spillover of the causative virus from an animal reservoir to the human population is being studied as the most likely event leading to the pandemic. Consequently, it is important to consider viral evolution and the process of spread within zoonotic anthropogenic transmission cycles as a global public health impact. The diverse routes of interspecies transmission of SARS-CoV-2 offer great potential for a future reservoir of pandemic viruses evolving from the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic circulation. To mitigate possible future infectious disease outbreaks in Africa and elsewhere, there is an urgent need for adequate global surveillance, prevention, and control measures that must include a focus on known and novel emerging zoonotic pathogens through a one health approach. Human immunization efforts should be approached equally through the transfer of cutting-edge technology for vaccine manufacturing throughout the world to ensure global public health and one health.

Crisis Narratives and the African Paradox: African Informal Economies, COVID-19 and the Decolonization of Social Policy

This article challenges the role of COVID-19 crisis narratives in shaping social policy choices in Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic has focused attention on Africa's vast informal economies, both as a symbol of the continent's intense vulnerability to the ravages of the pandemic, and as a puzzle in the face of the uneven and limited effects of COVID-19 across the continent. Indeed, an examination of statistical and documentary evidence reveals an inverse relationship between COVID-19 fatalities and the size of African informal economies, and a perverse relationship between best-practice COVID social protection responses and levels of COVID-19 mortality. Scrutinizing the evidence behind African COVID-19 crisis narratives raises questions about the ability of donor-led digitized social protection paradigms to address social needs in highly informalized, low-resource environments. This article highlights the role of crisis narratives as an exercise of power geared to remastering, homogenizing and reimagining African informal economies in ways that facilitate particular types of development intervention, sidelining alternative, more socially grounded policy perspectives. Through a closer examination of historical and contemporary realities in Africa's vast and varied informal economies, the article highlights the need to decolonize social policy by privileging local needs and policy perspectives over global policy agendas in the interest of transformative rather than palliative policy responses.

Risk factors for mortality in COVID-19 patients in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Aim

Mortality rates of coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) disease continue to increase worldwide and in Africa. In this study, we aimed to summarize the available results on the association between sociodemographic, clinical, biological, and comorbidity factors and the risk of mortality due to COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We followed the PRISMA checklist (S1 Checklist). We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, and European PMC between January 1, 2020, and September 23, 2021. We included observational studies with Subjects had to be laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients; had to report risk factors or predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients, Studies had to be published in English, include multivariate analysis, and be conducted in the sub-Saharan region. Exclusion criteria included case reports, review articles, commentaries, errata, protocols, abstracts, reports, letters to the editor, and repeat studies. The methodological quality of the studies included in this meta-analysis was assessed using the methodological items for nonrandomized studies (MINORS). Pooled hazard ratios (HR) or odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated separately to identify mortality risk. In addition, publication bias and subgroup analysis were assessed.

Results and discussion

Twelve studies with a total of 43598 patients met the inclusion criteria. The outcomes of interest were mortality. The results of the analysis showed that the pooled prevalence of mortality in COVID-19 patients was 4.8%. Older people showed an increased risk of mortality from SARS-Cov-2. The pooled hazard ratio (pHR) and odds ratio (pOR) were 9.01 (95% CI; 6.30–11.71) and 1.04 (95% CI; 1.02–1.06), respectively. A significant association was found between COVID-19 mortality and men (pOR = 1.52; 95% CI 1.04–2). In addition, the risk of mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection was strongly influenced by chronic kidney disease (CKD), hypertension, severe or critical infection on admission, cough, and dyspnea. The major limitations of the present study are that the data in the meta-analysis came mainly from studies that were published, which may lead to publication bias, and that the causal relationship between risk factors and poor outcome in patients with COVID-19 cannot be confirmed because of the inherent limitations of the observational study.

Conclusions

Advanced age, male sex, CKD, hypertension, severe or critical condition on admission, cough, and dyspnea are clinical risk factors for fatal outcomes associated with coronavirus. These findings could be used for research, control, and prevention of the disease and could help providers take appropriate measures and improve clinical outcomes in these patients.

Mental health and fatigue status of the medical workforce during the COVID-19 outbreak in the Yangzhou city, China

Background

When the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) erupted in Yangzhou, China, at the end of July 2021, medical workers in Yangzhou immediately joined the frontline for the fight against the pandemic. This study aimed to identify the mental health and fatigue experienced by the medical workers in Yangzhou during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Methods

We included 233 medical workers who participated in the front-line work for more than 1 month through the questionnaire, including doctors, nurses, medical technicians and medical students. The generalized anxiety disorder-7 (GAD-7), patient health questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and Fatigue self-assessment scale (FSAS) were administered to the participants and their responses were evaluated.

Results

A total of 233 eligible questionnaires were received. Among them, 130 people (57.08%) were probably anxious and 141 (60.52%) people were clinically depressed. Poor sleep was considered an independent risk factor for anxiety (OR = 7.164, 95% CI: 3.365 15.251, p = 0.000) and depression (OR = 6.899, 95% CI: 3.392 14.030, p = 0.000). A high PHQ-9 score was considered an independent risk factor for general fatigue (OR = 1.697, 95% CI: 1.481 1.944, p = 0.000). Mental fatigue (OR = 1.092, 95% CI: 1.027 1.161, p = 0.005) and fatigue response to sleep/rest (OR = 1.043, 95% CI: 1.011 1.076 p = 0.008) were considered independent risk factors for general fatigue.

Conclusion

Poor quality of sleep led to probable anxiety, depression, and general fatigue. Mental fatigue and fatigue response to sleep/rest were independent risk factors for depression, which merits attention for battling COVID-19.

Maintaining Momentum for Rotavirus Immunization in Africa during the COVID-19 Era: Report of the 13th African Rotavirus Symposium

The 13th African Rotavirus Symposium was held as a virtual event hosted by the University of Nairobi, Kenya and The Kenya Paediatric Association on 3rd and 4th November 2021. This biennial event organized under the auspices of the African Rotavirus Network shapes the agenda for rotavirus research and prevention on the continent, attracting key international and regional opinion leaders, researchers, and public health scientists. The African Rotavirus Network is a regional network of institutions initially established in 1999, and now encompassing much of the diarrheal disease and rotavirus related research in Africa, in collaboration with the World Health Organization African Regional Office (WHO-AFRO), Ministries of Health, and other partners. Surges in SARS-CoV2 variants and concomitant travel restrictions limited the meeting to a webinar platform with invited scientific presentations and scientific presentations from selected abstracts. The scientific program covered updates on burden of diarrheal diseases including rotavirus, the genomic characterization of rotavirus strains pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine introduction, and data from clinical evaluation of new rotavirus vaccines in Africa. Finally, 42 of the 54 African countries have fully introduced rotavirus vaccination at the time of the meeting, including the two recently WHO pre-qualified vaccines from India. Nonetheless, the full benefit of rotavirus vaccination is yet to be realized in Africa where approximately 80% of the global burden of rotavirus mortality exists.

Epidemiological Comparison of Four COVID-19 Waves in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, March 2020-January 2022

PURPOSE

Nationwide analyses are required to optimise and tailor activities to control future COVID-19 waves of resurgence continent-wide. We compared epidemiological and clinical outcomes of the four COVID-19 waves in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

METHODS

This retrospective descriptive epidemiological analysis included data from the national line list of confirmed COVID-19 cases in all provinces for all waves between 9 March 2020 and 2 January 2022. Descriptive statistical measures (frequencies, percentages, case fatality rates [CFR], test positivity rates [TPR], and characteristics) were compared using chi-squared or the Fisher-Irwin test.

RESULTS

During the study period, 72,108/445,084 (16.2%) tests were positive, with 9,641/56,637 (17.0%), 16,643/66,560 (25.0%), 24,172/157,945 (15.3%), and 21,652/163,942 (13.2%) cases during the first, second, third, and fourth waves, respectively. TPR significantly decreased from 17.0% in the first wave to 13.2% in the fourth wave as did infection of frontline health workers (5.2% vs. 0.9%). CFR decreased from 5.1 to 0.9% from the first to fourth wave. No sex- or age-related differences in distributions across different waves were observed. The majority of cases were asymptomatic in the first (73.1%) and second (86.6%) waves, in contrast to that in the third (11.1%) and fourth (31.3%) waves.

CONCLUSION

Despite fewer reported cases, the primary waves (first and second) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the DRC were more severe than the third and fourth waves, with each wave being associated with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Tailored public health and social measures, and resurgence monitoring are needed to control future waves of COVID-19.