Lithium isotopic evidence for enhanced reverse weathering during the Early Triassic warm period

Elevated temperatures persisted for an anomalously protracted interval following pulsed volcanic carbon release associated with the end-Permian mass extinction, deviating from the expected timescale of climate recovery following a carbon injection event. Here, we present evidence for enhanced reverse weathering-a CO2 source-following the end-Permian mass extinction based on the lithium isotopic composition of marine shales and cherts. We find that the average lithium isotopic composition of Lower Triassic marine shales is significantly elevated relative to that of all other previously measured Phanerozoic marine shales. Notably, the record generated here conflicts with carbonate-based interpretations of the lithium isotopic composition of Early Triassic seawater, forcing a re-evaluation of the existing framework used to interpret lithium isotopes in sedimentary archives. Using a stochastic forward lithium cycle model, we demonstrate that elevated reverse weathering is required to reproduce the lithium isotopic values and trends observed in Lower Triassic marine shales and cherts. Collectively, this work provides direct geochemical evidence for enhanced reverse weathering in the aftermath of Earth's most severe mass extinction.

Climate Change, Ecological Modernization, and Disaster Management: The Coastal Embankment Project in Southwestern Bangladesh

Climate change, one of the severest environmental threats to humankind, disproportionately affects low-income, developing countries in the Global South. Having no feasible mitigation alternatives, these countries resort to adaptation efforts to address climate perturbations. Climate change adaptation (or resilience) is primarily a localized course of action that depends on individuals, social networks, economies, ecologies, political structures, and the capabilities of all those to work collectively to absorb, learn from, and transform in the face of new realities. With a view to controlling the floods that shattered the life and economy of the then East Pakistan, which is now Bangladesh, during the mid-twentieth century, the coastal embankment project (CEP) was instituted as an adaptation strategy to natural disasters in Southwestern Bangladesh. Based on a qualitative analysis of primary and secondary data, this paper seeks to critically evaluate the efficacy of the CEP in terms of the space for feasible action and ecological modernization. The findings of this research indicate that the CEP has become an unrealistic venture that hinders the growing economic activity of shrimp aquaculture in the area. This paper is expected to contribute to generating further theoretical and empirical discourse on the evaluation of similar development projects around the globe.

Presence or absence of stabilizing Earth system feedbacks on different time scales

The question of how Earth's climate is stabilized on geologic time scales is important for understanding Earth's history, long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change, and planetary habitability. Here, we quantify the typical amplitude of past global temperature fluctuations on time scales from hundreds to tens of millions of years and use it to assess the presence or absence of long-term stabilizing feedbacks in the climate system. On time scales between 4 and 400 ka, fluctuations fail to grow with time scale, suggesting that stabilizing mechanisms like the hypothesized "weathering feedback" have exerted dominant control in this regime. Fluctuations grow on longer time scales, potentially due to tectonically or biologically driven changes that make weathering act as a climate forcing and a feedback. These slower fluctuations show no evidence of being damped, implying that chance may still have played a nonnegligible role in maintaining the long-term habitability of Earth.

Marine siliceous ecosystem decline led to sustained anomalous Early Triassic warmth

In the wake of rapid CO2 release tied to the emplacement of the Siberian Traps, elevated temperatures were maintained for over five million years during the end-Permian biotic crisis. This protracted recovery defies our current understanding of climate regulation via the silicate weathering feedback, and hints at a fundamentally altered carbon and silica cycle. Here, we propose that the development of widespread marine anoxia and Si-rich conditions, linked to the collapse of the biological silica factory, warming, and increased weathering, was capable of trapping Earth's system within a hyperthermal by enhancing ocean-atmosphere CO2 recycling via authigenic clay formation. While solid-Earth degassing may have acted as a trigger, subsequent biotic feedbacks likely exacerbated and prolonged the environmental crisis. This refined view of the carbon-silica cycle highlights that the ecological success of siliceous organisms exerts a potentially significant influence on Earth's climate regime.

The Balance of Nature: A Global Marine Perspective

The ancient idea of the balance of nature continues to influence modern perspectives on global environmental change. Assumptions of stable biogeochemical steady states and linear responses to perturbation are widely employed in the interpretation of geochemical records. Here, we review the dynamics of the marine carbon cycle and its interactions with climate and life over geologic time, focusing on what the record of past changes can teach us about stability and instability in the Earth system. Emerging themes include the role of amplifying feedbacks in producing past carbon cycle disruptions, the importance of critical rates of change in the context of mass extinctions and potential Earth system tipping points, and the application of these ideas to the modern unbalanced carbon cycle. A comprehensive dynamical understanding of the marine record of global environmental disruption will be of great value in understanding the long-term consequences of anthropogenic change.

Carbon storage estimation in a secondary tropical forest at CIEE Sustainability Center, Monteverde, Costa Rica

Secondary growth tropical rainforests have the potential to sequester large amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide and as such are an important carbon sink. To evaluate a local forest, a Carbon Neutrality Program was initiated at the Council on International Educational Exchange, San Luis Campus, Monteverde, Costa Rica. The study was conducted on 50 hectares of forest classified as Premontane Wet Forest. The forest, part of the Arenal-Monteverde Protected Zone, is estimated to be aproximately 50 years old and is in the upper regions of the San Luis valley at 1100 m elevation. Assessment of the carbon stock in trees was carried out in two permanent, 1 hectare plots, 100 m by 100 m, Camino Real and Zapote. The plots were divided into 25 subplots, 20 m by 20 m totaling 400 m² per subplot. Ten subplots in each area were studied which represented 1.6% the total surface area of the forest. All of the trees were measured within the subplots that had a diameter at breast height ≥ 10 cm and the height of 10% of the trees measured. The estimated total CO₂ sequestered by the campus forest was 18,210 ton (in 2019).

Carbon storage assessment in soil and plant organs: the role of Prosopis spp. on mitigate soil degradation

Carbon sequestration is a process for stable storage of carbon dioxide. In this process, excess atmospheric carbon dioxide is stored by the aerial and underground organs of rangeland plants to reduce global warming. The aim of this study was to identify the relationship between some chemical properties of soil and ability of carbon storage in two plants, namely Prosopis cineraria and Prosopis juliflora in soil depth ranging between 0-15 and 15-30 cm. This research was carried out in Anbarabad region which is located at 258 km in the southeast of Kerman during 2016-2018. The present research was performed as a factorial experiment so that the first factor was the plant species and the control treatment and the second component was soil depth. Sampling was done from the shady soil of plants and the control area. Soil properties including organic carbon, bulk density, acidity, electrical conductivity and organic matter were analysed. The results indicated that the carbon stored at depths of 0-15 cm and 15-30 cm in the shade soil of P. cineraria was 21.39 and 24.36 t/ha, and in P. juliflora was 23.70 and 24.85 t/ha, and in control area is 19.83 and 21.31 t/ha. Also, the results of stepwise regression study showed that organic carbon percentage and bulk density are the most important factors affecting soil carbon sequestration.

Artificial Neural Network Led Optimization of Oxyhydrogen Hybridized Diesel Operated Engine

The prevailing massive exploitation of conventional fuels has staked the energy accessibility to future generations. The gloomy peril of inflated demand and depleting fuel reservoirs in the energy sector has supposedly instigated the urgent need for reliable alternative fuels. These very issues have been addressed by introducing oxyhydrogen gas (HHO) in compression ignition (CI) engines in various flow rates with diesel for assessing brake-specific fuel consumption (BSFC) and brake thermal efficiency (BTE). The enrichment of neat diesel fuel with 10 dm3/min of HHO resulted in the most substantial decrease in BSFC and improved BTE at all test speeds in the range of 1000–2200 rpm. Moreover, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach was employed for designing an ANN performance-predicting model with an engine operating on HHO. The correlation coefficients (R) of BSFC and BTE given by the ANN predicting model were 0.99764 and 0.99902, respectively. The mean root errors (MRE) of both parameters (BSFC and BTE) were within the range of 1–3% while the root mean square errors (RMSE) were 0.0122 kg/kWh and 0.2768% for BSFC and BTE, respectively. In addition, ANN was coupled with the response surface methodology (RSM) technique for comprehending the individual impact of design parameters and their statistical interactions governing the output parameters. The R2 values of RSM responses (BSFC and BTE) were near to 1 and MRE values were within the designated range. The comparative evaluation of ANN and RSM predicting models revealed that MRE and RMSE of RSM models are also well within the desired range but to be outrightly accurate and precise, the choice of ANN should be potentially endorsed. Thus, the combined use of ANN and RSM could be used effectively for reliable predictions and effective study of statistical interactions.

Simulated CO2-induced ocean acidification for ocean in the East China: historical conditions since preindustrial time and future scenarios

Since preindustrial times, as atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases, the ocean continuously absorbs anthropogenic CO₂, reducing seawater pH and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$[{{\rm{C}}{\rm{O}}}_{3}^{2-}]$$\end{document}[CO32−], which is termed ocean acidification. We perform Earth system model simulations to assess CO₂-induced acidification for ocean in the East China, one of the most vulnerable areas to ocean acidification. By year 2017, ocean surface pH in the East China drops from the preindustrial level of 8.20 to 8.06, corresponding to a 35% rise in [H⁺], and reduction rate of pH becomes faster in the last two decades. Changes in surface seawater acidity largely result from CO₂-induced changes in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), alkalinity (ALK), salinity and temperature, among which DIC plays the most important role. By year 2300, simulated reduction in sea surface \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$[{{\rm{C}}{\rm{O}}}_{3}^{2-}]$$\end{document}[CO32−] is 13% under RCP2.6, contrasted to 72% under RCP8.5. Furthermore, simulated results show that CO₂-induced warming acts to mitigate reductions in \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$[{{\rm{C}}{\rm{O}}}_{3}^{2-}]$$\end{document}[CO32−], but the individual effect of oceanic CO₂ uptake is much greater than the effect of CO₂-induced warming on ocean acidification. Our study quantifies ocean acidification induced by anthropogenic CO₂, and indicates the potentially important role of accelerated CO₂ emissions in projections of future changes in biogeochemistry and ecosystem of ocean in the East China.

Biomimetic heterobimetallic architecture of Ni(ii) and Fe(ii) for CO2 hydrogenation in aqueous media. A DFT study

In this work, density functional theory has been employed to design a heterobimetallic catalyst of Ni(ii) and Fe(ii) for the effective CO2 hydrogenation to HCOOH. Based on computational results, our newly designed catalyst is found to be effective for such conversion reactions with free energy as low as 14.13 kcal mol-1 for the rate determining step. Such a low value of free energy indicates that the NiFe heterobimetallic catalyst can prove to be very efficient for the above said conversion. Moreover, the effects of ligand substitutions at the active metal center and the effects due to various spin states are also explored, and can serve as a great tool for the rational design of NiFe catalyst for CO2 hydrogenation.

Cumulative environmental and employment impacts of the shale gas boom

Natural gas has become the largest fuel source for electricity generation in the United States and accounts for a third of energy production and consumption. However, the environmental and socioeconomic impacts across the supply chain and over the boom-and-bust cycle have not been comprehensively characterized. To provide insight for long-term decision making for energy transitions, we estimate the cumulative impacts of the shale gas boom in the Appalachian basin from 2004 to 2016 on air quality, climate change, and employment. We find that air quality impacts (1200 to 4600 deaths; $23B +99%/-164%) and employment impacts (469,000 job-years ±30%; $21B ±30%) follow the boom-and-bust cycle, while climate impacts ($12B to $94B) persist for generations well beyond the period of natural gas activity. Employment effects concentrate in rural areas where production occurs. However, almost half of cumulative premature mortality due to air pollution is downwind of these areas, occurring in urban regions of the Northeast. The cumulative temperature impacts of methane and carbon dioxide over a 30-year time horizon are nearly equivalent, but over the long term, the cumulative climate impact is largely due to carbon dioxide. We estimate that a tax on production of $2 per thousand cubic foot (+172%/-76%) would compensate for cumulative climate and air quality externalities across the supply chain.

Prolonged Late Permian-Early Triassic hyperthermal: failure of climate regulation?

The extreme warmth associated with the mass extinction at the Permian-Triassic boundary was likely produced by a rapid build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the eruption and emplacement of the Siberian Traps. In comparison to another hyperthermal event, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, the Permian-Triassic event, while leaving a similar carbon isotope record, likely had larger amounts of CO2 emitted and did not follow the expected time scale of climate recovery. The quantities and rates of CO2 emission likely exhausted the capacity of the long-term climate regulator associated with silicate weathering. Failure was enhanced by slow rock uplift and high continentality associated with the supercontinental phase of global tectonics at the time of the Siberian Traps eruption.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO₂ reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO₂ storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present a numerical program that calculates CO₂ storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates of geological subsurface CO₂ retention, and of surface CO₂ leakage. We calculate that realistically well-regulated storage in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0008% per year, with over 98% of the injected CO₂ retained in the subsurface over 10,000 years. An unrealistic scenario, where CO₂ storage is inadequately regulated, estimates that more than 78% will be retained over 10,000 years. Our modelling results suggest that geological storage of CO₂ can be a secure climate change mitigation option, but we note that long-term behaviour of CO₂ in the subsurface remains a key uncertainty.

Negative emissions technologies and carbon capture and storage to achieve the Paris Agreement commitments

How will the global atmosphere and climate be protected? Achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions will require carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce current GHG emission rates, and negative emissions technology (NET) to recapture previously emitted greenhouse gases. Delivering NET requires radical cost and regulatory innovation to impact on climate mitigation. Present NET exemplars are few, are at small-scale and not deployable within a decade, with the exception of rock weathering, or direct injection of CO₂ into selected ocean water masses. To keep warming less than 2°C, bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) has been modelled but does not yet exist at industrial scale. CCS already exists in many forms and at low cost. However, CCS has no political drivers to enforce its deployment. We make a new analysis of all global CCS projects and model the build rate out to 2050, deducing this is 100 times too slow. Our projection to 2050 captures just 700 Mt CO₂ yr^-1, not the minimum 6000 Mt CO₂ yr^-1 required to meet the 2°C target. Hence new policies are needed to incentivize commercial CCS. A first urgent action for all countries is to commercially assess their CO₂ storage. A second simple action is to assign a Certificate of CO₂ Storage onto producers of fossil carbon, mandating a progressively increasing proportion of CO₂ to be stored. No CCS means no 2°C.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Negative emissions technologies and carbon capture and storage to achieve the Paris Agreement commitments

How will the global atmosphere and climate be protected? Achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions will require carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce current GHG emission rates, and negative emissions technology (NET) to recapture previously emitted greenhouse gases. Delivering NET requires radical cost and regulatory innovation to impact on climate mitigation. Present NET exemplars are few, are at small-scale and not deployable within a decade, with the exception of rock weathering, or direct injection of CO₂ into selected ocean water masses. To keep warming less than 2°C, bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) has been modelled but does not yet exist at industrial scale. CCS already exists in many forms and at low cost. However, CCS has no political drivers to enforce its deployment. We make a new analysis of all global CCS projects and model the build rate out to 2050, deducing this is 100 times too slow. Our projection to 2050 captures just 700 Mt CO₂ yr^-1, not the minimum 6000 Mt CO₂ yr^-1 required to meet the 2°C target. Hence new policies are needed to incentivize commercial CCS. A first urgent action for all countries is to commercially assess their CO₂ storage. A second simple action is to assign a Certificate of CO₂ Storage onto producers of fossil carbon, mandating a progressively increasing proportion of CO₂ to be stored. No CCS means no 2°C.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Negative CO2 emissions via enhanced silicate weathering in coastal environments

Negative emission technologies (NETs) target the removal of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere, and are being actively investigated as a strategy to limit global warming to within the 1.5–2°C targets of the 2015 UN climate agreement. Enhanced silicate weathering (ESW) proposes to exploit the natural process of mineral weathering for the removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere. Here, we discuss the potential of applying ESW in coastal environments as a climate change mitigation option. By deliberately introducing fast-weathering silicate minerals onto coastal sediments, alkalinity is released into the overlying waters, thus creating a coastal CO₂ sink. Compared with other NETs, coastal ESW has the advantage that it counteracts ocean acidification, does not interfere with terrestrial land use and can be directly integrated into existing coastal management programmes with existing (dredging) technology. Yet presently, the concept is still at an early stage, and so two major research challenges relate to the efficiency and environmental impact of ESW. Dedicated experiments are needed (i) to more precisely determine the weathering rate under in situ conditions within the seabed and (ii) to evaluate the ecosystem impacts—both positive and negative—from the released weathering products.

Delay Discounting as an Index of Sustainable Behavior: Devaluation of Future Air Quality and Implications for Public Health

Poor air quality and resulting annual deaths represent significant public health concerns. Recently, rapid delay discounting (the devaluation of future outcomes) of air quality has been considered a potential barrier for engaging in long term, sustainable behaviors that might help to reduce emissions (e.g., reducing private car use, societal support for clean air initiatives). Delay discounting has been shown to be predictive of real world behavior outside of laboratory settings, and therefore may offer an important framework beyond traditional variables thought to measure sustainable behavior such as importance of an environmental issue, or environmental attitudes/values, although more research is needed in this area. We examined relations between discounting of air quality, respiratory health, and monetary gains and losses. We also examined, relations between discounting and self-reported importance of air quality and respiratory health, and nature relatedness. Results showed rapid delay discounting of all outcomes across the time frames assessed, and significant positive correlations between delay discounting of air quality, respiratory health, and monetary outcomes. Steeper discounting of monetary outcomes relative to air quality and respiratory health outcomes was observed in the context of gains; however, no differences in discounting were observed across losses of monetary, air quality, and respiratory health. Replicating the sign effect, monetary outcomes were discounted more steeply than monetary losses. Importance of air quality, respiratory health and nature relatedness were significantly and positively correlated with one another, but not with degree of delay discounting of any outcome, demonstrating the need for more comprehensive measures that predict pro-environmental behaviors that might benefit individuals and public health over time. These results add to our understanding of decision-making, and demonstrate alarming rates of delay discounting of air quality and health. These results implicate a major public health concern and potential barriers to individual and societal behavior that reduce pollution and emissions for conservation of clean air.

Olivine Dissolution in Seawater: Implications for CO2 Sequestration through Enhanced Weathering in Coastal Environments

Enhanced weathering of (ultra)basic silicate rocks such as olivine-rich dunite has been proposed as a large-scale climate engineering approach. When implemented in coastal environments, olivine weathering is expected to increase seawater alkalinity, thus resulting in additional CO₂ uptake from the atmosphere. However, the mechanisms of marine olivine weathering and its effect on seawater-carbonate chemistry remain poorly understood. Here, we present results from batch reaction experiments, in which forsteritic olivine was subjected to rotational agitation in different seawater media for periods of days to months. Olivine dissolution caused a significant increase in alkalinity of the seawater with a consequent DIC increase due to CO₂ invasion, thus confirming viability of the basic concept of enhanced silicate weathering. However, our experiments also identified several important challenges with respect to the detailed quantification of the CO₂ sequestration efficiency under field conditions, which include nonstoichiometric dissolution, potential pore water saturation in the seabed, and the potential occurrence of secondary reactions. Before enhanced weathering of olivine in coastal environments can be considered an option for realizing negative CO₂ emissions for climate mitigation purposes, these aspects need further experimental assessment.

Detecting the unexpected: a research framework for ocean acidification

The threat that ocean acidification (OA) poses to marine ecosystems is now recognized and U.S. funding agencies have designated specific funding for the study of OA. We present a research framework for studying OA that describes it as a biogeochemical event that impacts individual species and ecosystems in potentially unexpected ways. We draw upon specific lessons learned about ecosystem responses from research on acid rain, carbon dioxide enrichment in terrestrial plant communities, and nitrogen deposition. We further characterize the links between carbon chemistry changes and effects on individuals and ecosystems, and enumerate key hypotheses for testing. Finally, we quantify how U.S. research funding has been distributed among these linkages, concluding that there is an urgent need for research programs designed to anticipate how the effects of OA will reverberate throughout assemblages of species.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Comparing scales of environmental effects from gasoline and ethanol production

Understanding the environmental effects of alternative fuel production is critical to characterizing the sustainability of energy resources to inform policy and regulatory decisions. The magnitudes of these environmental effects vary according to the intensity and scale of fuel production along each step of the supply chain. We compare the spatial extent and temporal duration of ethanol and gasoline production processes and environmental effects based on a literature review and then synthesize the scale differences on space-time diagrams. Comprehensive assessment of any fuel-production system is a moving target, and our analysis shows that decisions regarding the selection of spatial and temporal boundaries of analysis have tremendous influences on the comparisons. Effects that strongly differentiate gasoline and ethanol-supply chains in terms of scale are associated with when and where energy resources are formed and how they are extracted. Although both gasoline and ethanol production may result in negative environmental effects, this study indicates that ethanol production traced through a supply chain may impact less area and result in more easily reversed effects of a shorter duration than gasoline production.

Ocean acidification in a geoengineering context

Fundamental changes to marine chemistry are occurring because of increasing carbon dioxide (CO(2)) in the atmosphere. Ocean acidity (H(+) concentration) and bicarbonate ion concentrations are increasing, whereas carbonate ion concentrations are decreasing. There has already been an average pH decrease of 0.1 in the upper ocean, and continued unconstrained carbon emissions would further reduce average upper ocean pH by approximately 0.3 by 2100. Laboratory experiments, observations and projections indicate that such ocean acidification may have ecological and biogeochemical impacts that last for many thousands of years. The future magnitude of such effects will be very closely linked to atmospheric CO(2); they will, therefore, depend on the success of emission reduction, and could also be constrained by geoengineering based on most carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques. However, some ocean-based CDR approaches would (if deployed on a climatically significant scale) re-locate acidification from the upper ocean to the seafloor or elsewhere in the ocean interior. If solar radiation management were to be the main policy response to counteract global warming, ocean acidification would continue to be driven by increases in atmospheric CO(2), although with additional temperature-related effects on CO(2) and CaCO(3) solubility and terrestrial carbon sequestration.

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs.

Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction

In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because approximately 60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and recognize other environmental benefits of forests, such as biodiversity, nutrient management, and watershed protection. Activities that contribute to helping forests adapt to the effects of climate change, and which also complement forest carbon storage strategies, would be prudent.

Broader perspectives for comparing different greenhouse gases

Over the last 20 years, different greenhouse gases have been compared, in the context of climate change, primarily through the concept of global warming potentials (GWPs). This considers the climate forcing caused by pulse emissions and integrated over a fixed time horizon. Recent studies have shown that uncertainties in GWP values are significantly larger than previously thought and, while past literature in this area has raised alternative means of comparison, there is not yet any clear alternative. We propose that a broader framework for comparing greenhouse gases has become necessary and that this cannot be addressed by using simple fixed exchange rates. From a policy perspective, the framework needs to be clearly aligned with the goal of climate stabilization, and we show that comparisons between gases can be better addressed in this context by the forcing equivalence index (FEI). From a science perspective, a framework for comparing greenhouse gases should also consider the full range of processes that affect atmospheric composition and how these may alter for climate stabilization at different levels. We cover a basis for a broader approach to comparing greenhouse gases by summarizing the uncertainties in GWPs, linking those to uncertainties in the FEIs consistent with stabilization, and then to a framework for addressing uncertainties in the corresponding biogeochemical processes.

Stratigraphy of the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene, an informal term used to signal the impact of collective human activity on biological, physical and chemical processes on the Earth system, is assessed using stratigraphic criteria. It is complex in time, space and process, and may be considered in terms of the scale, relative timing, duration and novelty of its various phenomena. The lithostratigraphic signal includes both direct components, such as urban constructions and man-made deposits, and indirect ones, such as sediment flux changes. Already widespread, these are producing a significant 'event layer', locally with considerable long-term preservation potential. Chemostratigraphic signals include new organic compounds, but are likely to be dominated by the effects of CO(2) release, particularly via acidification in the marine realm, and man-made radionuclides. The sequence stratigraphic signal is negligible to date, but may become geologically significant over centennial/millennial time scales. The rapidly growing biostratigraphic signal includes geologically novel aspects (the scale of globally transferred species) and geologically will have permanent effects.

Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy

A number of recent studies have found a strong link between peak human-induced global warming and cumulative carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution, while the link to emissions over shorter periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker. However, cumulative targets appear to conflict with the concept of a 'floor' in emissions caused by sectors such as food production. Here, we show that the introduction of emissions floors does not reduce the importance of cumulative emissions, but may make some warming targets unachievable. For pathways that give a most likely warming up to about 4°C, cumulative emissions from pre-industrial times to year 2200 correlate strongly with most likely resultant peak warming regardless of the shape of emissions floors used, providing a more natural long-term policy horizon than 2050 or 2100. The maximum rate of CO(2)-induced warming, which will affect the feasibility and cost of adapting to climate change, is not determined by cumulative emissions but is tightly aligned with peak rates of emissions. Hence, cumulative carbon emissions to 2200 and peak emission rates could provide a clear and simple framework for CO(2) mitigation policy.

Estimation of anthropogenic CO2 inventories in the ocean

A significant impetus for recent ocean biogeochemical research has been to better understand the ocean's role as a sink for anthropogenic CO2. In the 1990s the global carbon survey of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) inspired the development of several approaches for estimating anthropogenic carbon inventories in the ocean interior. Most approaches agree that the total global ocean inventory of Cant was around 120 Pg C in the mid-1990s. Today, the ocean carbon uptake rate estimates suggest that the ocean is not keeping pace with the CO2 emissions growth rate. Repeat occupations of the WOCE/JGOFS survey lines consistently show increases in carbon inventories over the last decade, but have not yet been synthesized enough to verify a slowdown in the carbon storage rate. There are many uncertainties in the future ocean carbon storage. Continued observations are necessary to monitor changes and understand mechanisms controlling ocean carbon uptake and storage in the future.

The Eocene Arctic Azolla bloom: environmental conditions, productivity and carbon drawdown

Enormous quantities of the free-floating freshwater fern Azolla grew and reproduced in situ in the Arctic Ocean during the middle Eocene, as was demonstrated by microscopic analysis of microlaminated sediments recovered from the Lomonosov Ridge during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 302. The timing of the Azolla phase (approximately 48.5 Ma) coincides with the earliest signs of onset of the transition from a greenhouse towards the modern icehouse Earth. The sustained growth of Azolla, currently ranking among the fastest growing plants on Earth, in a major anoxic oceanic basin may have contributed to decreasing atmospheric pCO2 levels via burial of Azolla-derived organic matter. The consequences of these enormous Azolla blooms for regional and global nutrient and carbon cycles are still largely unknown. Cultivation experiments have been set up to investigate the influence of elevated pCO2 on Azolla growth, showing a marked increase in Azolla productivity under elevated (760 and 1910 ppm) pCO2 conditions. The combined results of organic carbon, sulphur, nitrogen content and 15N and 13C measurements of sediments from the Azolla interval illustrate the potential contribution of nitrogen fixation in a euxinic stratified Eocene Arctic. Flux calculations were used to quantitatively reconstruct the potential storage of carbon (0.9-3.5 10(18) gC) in the Arctic during the Azolla interval. It is estimated that storing 0.9 10(18) to 3.5 10(18) g carbon would result in a 55 to 470 ppm drawdown of pCO2 under Eocene conditions, indicating that the Arctic Azolla blooms may have had a significant effect on global atmospheric pCO2 levels through enhanced burial of organic matter.

Electrochemical acceleration of chemical weathering as an energetically feasible approach to mitigating anthropogenic climate change

We describe an approach to CO2 capture and storage from the atmosphere that involves enhancing the solubility of CO2 in the ocean by a process equivalent to the natural silicate weathering reaction. HCl is electrochemically removed from the ocean and neutralized through reaction with silicate rocks. The increase in ocean alkalinity resulting from the removal of HCI causes atmospheric CO2 to dissolve into the ocean where it will be stored primarily as HCO3- without further acidifying the ocean. On timescales of hundreds of years or longer, some of the additional alkalinity will likely lead to precipitation or enhanced preservation of CaCO3, resulting in the permanent storage of the associated carbon, and the return of an equal amount of carbon to the atmosphere. Whereas the natural silicate weathering process is effected primarily by carbonic acid, the engineered process accelerates the weathering kinetics to industrial rates by replacing this weak acid with HCI. In the thermodynamic limit--and with the appropriate silicate rocks--the overall reaction is spontaneous. A range of efficiency scenarios indicates that the process should require 100-400 kJ of work per mol of CO2 captured and stored for relevant timescales. The process can be powered from stranded energy sources too remote to be useful for the direct needs of population centers. It may also be useful on a regional scale for protection of coral reefs from further ocean acidification. Application of this technology may involve neutralizing the alkaline solution that is coproduced with HCI with CO2 from a point source or from the atmosphere prior to being returned to the ocean.

Climate change and trace gases

Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.