Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against

Rainfall seasonality dominates critical precipitation threshold for the Amazon forest in the LPJmL vegetation model

Understanding the Amazon Rainforest's response to shifts in precipitation is paramount with regard to its sensitivity to climate change and deforestation. Studies using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) typically only explore a range of socio-economically plausible pathways. In this study, we applied the state-of-the-art DGVM LPJmL to simulate the Amazon forest's response under idealized scenarios where precipitation is linearly decreased and subsequently increased between current levels and zero. Our results indicate a nonlinear but reversible relationship between vegetation Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP), suggesting a threshold at a critical MAP value, below which vegetation biomass decline accelerates with decreasing MAP. We find that approaching this critical threshold is accompanied by critical slowing down, which can hence be expected to warn of accelerating biomass decline with decreasing rainfall. The critical precipitation threshold is lowest in the northwestern Amazon, whereas the eastern and southern regions may already be below their critical MAP thresholds. Overall, we identify the seasonality of precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration (PET) as the most important parameters determining the threshold value. While vegetation fires show little effect on the critical threshold and the biomass pattern in general, the ability of trees to adapt to water stress by investing in deep roots leads to increased biomass and a lower critical threshold in some areas in the eastern and southern Amazon where seasonality and PET are high. Our findings underscore the risk of Amazon forest degradation due to changes in the water cycle, and imply that regions that are currently characterized by higher water availability may exhibit heightened vulnerability to future drying.

Cost of Carbon in the Total Cost of Healthcare Procedures: A Methodological Challenge

Economic evaluations aim to compare the costs and the results of health strategies to guide the public decision-making process. Cost estimation is, thus, a cornerstone of this approach. At present, few national evaluation agencies recommend incorporating the cost of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from healthcare actions into the calculation of healthcare costs. Our main goal is to describe and discuss the methodology for integrating the cost of GHG emissions into the field of applied economic evaluations. To estimate this cost, three steps are required: (1) identifying and quantifying the physical flows linked to the production and management of the outputs of healthcare interventions, (2) estimating the quantity of GHG that can be attributed to each physical flow, and (3) valuing these GHG emissions in monetary terms. Integrating the cost of GHG emissions into the calculation of the costs of healthcare interventions is both useful and relevant from a perspective of collective intergenerational well-being. This approach has been made possible thanks to the existence of accounting and monetary valuation methods for emissions. Agencies specialized in health economic evaluations could take up this issue to resolve ongoing questions, thus providing researchers with a methodological framework and public decision-makers with some key insights.

Connecting human behaviour, meaning and nature

Much of the discourse around climate change and the situation of diverse human societies and cultures in the Anthropocene focuses on responding to scientific understanding of the dynamics of the biosphere by adjusting existing institutional and organizational structures. Our emerging scientific understanding of human behaviour and the mechanisms that enable groups to achieve large-scale coordination and cooperation suggests that incrementally adjusting existing institutions and organizations will not be sufficient to confront current global-scale challenges. Specifically, the transaction costs of operating institutions to induce selfish rational actors to consider social welfare in their decision-making are too high. Rather, we highlight the importance of networks of shared stories that become real-imagined orders-that create context, meaning and shared purpose for framing decisions and guiding action. We explore imagined orders that have contributed to bringing global societies to where they are and propose elements of a science-informed imagined order essential to enabling societies to flourish in the Anthropocene biosphere. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Deciphering carbon emissions in urban sewer networks: Bridging urban sewer networks with city-wide environmental dynamics

As urbanization accelerates, understanding and managing carbon emissions from urban sewer networks have become crucial for sustainable urban water cycles. This review examines the factors influencing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within urban sewage systems, analyzing the complex effects between water quality, hydrodynamics, and sewer infrastructure on GHG production and emission processes. It reveals significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in GHG emissions, particularly under long-term scenarios where flow rates and temperatures exhibit strong impacts and correlations. Given the presence of fugitive and dissolved potential GHGs, standardized monitoring and accounting methods are deemed essential. Advanced modeling techniques emerge as crucial tools for large-scale carbon emission prediction and management. The review identifies that traditional definitions and computational frameworks for carbon emission boundaries fail to fully consider the inherent heterogeneity of sewers and the dynamic changes and impacts of multi-source pollution within the sewer system during the urban water cycle. This includes irregular fugitive emissions, the influence of stormwater systems, climate change, geographical features, sewer design, and the impacts of food waste and antibiotics. Key strategies for emission management are discussed, focusing on the need for careful consideration of approaches that might inadvertently increase global emissions, such as ventilation, chemical treatments, and water management practices. The review advocates for an overarching strategy that encompasses a holistic view of carbon emissions, stressing the importance of refined emission boundary definitions, novel accounting practices, and comprehensive management schemes in line with the water treatment sector's move towards carbon neutrality. It champions the adoption of interdisciplinary, technologically advanced solutions to mitigate pollution and reduce carbon emissions, emphasizing the importance of integrating cross-scale issues and other environmentally friendly measures in future research directions.

A Dynamical Systems View of Psychiatric Disorders-Practical Implications: A Review

Importance

Dynamical systems theory is widely used to explain tipping points, cycles, and chaos in complex systems ranging from the climate to ecosystems. It has been suggested that the same theory may be used to explain the nature and dynamics of psychiatric disorders, which may come and go with symptoms changing over a lifetime. Here we review evidence for the practical applicability of this theory and its quantitative tools in psychiatry.

Observations

Emerging results suggest that time series of mood and behavior may be used to monitor the resilience of patients using the same generic dynamical indicators that are now employed globally to monitor the risks of collapse of complex systems, such as tropical rainforest and tipping elements of the climate system. Other dynamical systems tools used in ecology and climate science open ways to infer personalized webs of causality for patients that may be used to identify targets for intervention. Meanwhile, experiences in ecological restoration help make sense of the occasional long-term success of short interventions.

Conclusions and Relevance

Those observations, while promising, evoke follow-up questions on how best to collect dynamic data, infer informative timescales, construct mechanistic models, and measure the effect of interventions on resilience. Done well, monitoring resilience to inform well-timed interventions may be integrated into approaches that give patients an active role in the lifelong challenge of managing their resilience and knowing when to seek professional help.

Exploring a pathway to optimise the carbon tax policy in terms of the economy, the environment and health: A scenario-based system dynamics approach

The carbon tax, a pivotal policy instrument in tackling climate change, holds the potential to significantly influence the development of society. To comprehensively analyse the effectiveness of the policy on carbon taxation and explore its possible optimisation path, this study utilizes system dynamics theory to establish a simulation model. A detailed analysis and evaluation of this policy is then conducted from the perspectives of the economy, the environment, and health. To guarantee the precision of the simulation model, a new, comprehensive evaluation method is proposed, which can test the degree of fit of the relative trend and absolute data of the simulation model with reality. The findings reveal that, despite its negative economic implications, a carbon tax policy has positive ramifications for the environment, energy, health, industrial structure, and carbon intensity targets. Furthermore, the synergistic reinforcement effect of R&D and new energy support policies on carbon taxation surpasses the impact of any individual policy alone. Notably, the influence of auxiliary policies has a temporal difference on this policy. Based on these insights, the study concludes with practical policy recommendations.

Current and Near-Term Earth-Observing Environmental Satellites, Their Missions, Characteristics, Instruments, and Applications

Among the essential tools to address global environmental information requirements are the Earth-Observing (EO) satellites with free and open data access. This paper reviews those EO satellites from international space programs that already, or will in the next decade or so, provide essential data of importance to the environmental sciences that describe Earth's status. We summarize factors distinguishing those pioneering satellites placed in space over the past half century, and their links to modern ones, and the changing priorities for spaceborne instruments and platforms. We illustrate the broad sweep of instrument technologies useful for observing different aspects of the physio-biological aspects of the Earth's surface, spanning wavelengths from the UV-A at 380 nanometers to microwave and radar out to 1 m. We provide a background on the technical specifications of each mission and its primary instrument(s), the types of data collected, and examples of applications that illustrate these observations. We provide websites for additional mission details of each instrument, the history or context behind their measurements, and additional details about their instrument design, specifications, and measurements.

A medical language for climate discourse

Innovative communication theories propose that we understand messages not by decoding their meaning but by inferring what speakers intend to express. However scientifically accurate the messages climate scientists have put forward, the appropriate inferences may not have been drawn by most of their audiences. One of the main reasons may be that scientific metaphors allow for multiple interpretations, yet, because of their expressive power, they impact discourses disproportionately. Climate communication took a path of euphemistic scientific expressions partially due to the noble scientific norms of self-restraint and modesty, but the hidden implications of climate jargon distort the way non-experts think about the heating climate. Consequently, the current climate jargon hinders informed decisions about Earth’s life support systems. Changing the softened expressions of climate language, from the cool of basic research to the heat and compassion of medical contexts, may allow for more productive public and political debates – which may lead to more powerful policy solutions. Speaking and thinking in medical terms could turn the perception of worst case scenarios from hypotheticals or doomism to life-saving interventions. We typically start reducing fever before it gets out of control, let alone crosses a threshold of potential death. Instead of putting on a positivist mascara, a calm and serious discussion of safety measures in medical terms, for example, talking about climatic tipping cascades as metastases, could foster a more honest evaluation of the required legal and regulatory steps to keep our home planet habitable.

Microbial Catalysis for CO2 Sequestration: A Geobiological Approach

One of the greatest threats facing the planet is the continued increase in excess greenhouse gasses, with CO2 being the primary driver due to its rapid increase in only a century. Excess CO2 is exacerbating known climate tipping points that will have cascading local and global effects including loss of biodiversity, global warming, and climate migration. However, global reduction of CO2 emissions is not enough. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will also be needed to avoid the catastrophic effects of global warming. Although the drawdown and storage of CO2 occur naturally via the coupling of the silicate and carbonate cycles, they operate over geological timescales (thousands of years). Here, we suggest that microbes can be used to accelerate this process, perhaps by orders of magnitude, while simultaneously producing potentially valuable by-products. This could provide both a sustainable pathway for global drawdown of CO2 and an environmentally benign biosynthesis of materials. We discuss several different approaches, all of which involve enhancing the rate of silicate weathering. We use the silicate mineral olivine as a case study because of its favorable weathering properties, global abundance, and growing interest in CDR applications. Extensive research is needed to determine both the upper limit of the rate of silicate dissolution and its potential to economically scale to draw down significant amounts (Mt/Gt) of CO2 Other industrial processes have successfully cultivated microbial consortia to provide valuable services at scale (e.g., wastewater treatment, anaerobic digestion, fermentation), and we argue that similar economies of scale could be achieved from this research.

Environmental attitude and affective-motivational beliefs towards sustainability of secondary school children in Germany and their associations with gender, age, school type, socio-economic status and time spent in nature

There are warnings that human actions will lead to irreversible environmental damage if they continue at their current pace and scale. With regard to individual aspects, a pro-environmental attitude and positive affective-motivational beliefs towards sustainability represent fundamentals for a more sustainable future. However, there is little data regarding these constructs and relevant explanatory factors, especially with regard to young people. We examined environmental attitude (two-dimensional: utilization and preservation) and affective-motivational beliefs towards sustainability with regard to gender, age, socio-economic status, school type and time spent in nature in 484 adolescents (11-14 years) living in German cities by means of univariate and multiple regression analyses. Mean values were high in preservation and affective-motivational beliefs towards sustainability, and relatively low in utilization. Female adolescents had higher values compared to male students in affective-motivational beliefs towards sustainability. Age did not play a substantial role. Although being strongly correlated with each other, school type and socio-economic status each exhibited positive associations to environmental attitude and affective-motivational beliefs towards sustainability. Furthermore, multiple regression analyses identified time spent in nature as a significant predictor of incremental value, suggesting a tentative recommendation to spend at least half an hour per week in nature in order to promote positive attitudes towards the environment and sustainability. In sum, special needs for topic-related education seem to exist for male students, students with lower formal level of education, students with a lower socio-economic status and students who spend little time in nature.

Rare-earth Element-based Electrocatalysts Designed for CO2 Electro-reduction

Electrochemical CO2 reduction presents a promising approach for synthesizing fuels and chemical feedstocks using renewable energy sources. Although significant advancements have been made in the design of catalysts for CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR) in recent years, the linear scaling relationship of key intermediates, selectivity, stability, and economical efficiency are still required to be improved. Rare earth (RE) elements, recognized as pivotal components in various industrial applications, have been widely used in catalysis due to their unique properties such as redox characteristics, orbital structure, oxygen affinity, large ion radius, and electronic configuration. Furthermore, RE elements could effectively modulate the adsorption strength of intermediates and provide abundant metal active sites for CO2RR. Despite their potential, there is still a shortage of comprehensive and systematic analysis of RE elements employed in the design of electrocatalysts of CO2RR. Therefore, the current approaches for the design of RE element-based electrocatalysts and their applications in CO2RR are thoroughly summarized in this review. The review starts by outlining the characteristics of CO2RR and RE elements, followed by a summary of design strategies and synthetic methods for RE element-based electrocatalysts. Finally, an overview of current limitations in research and an outline of the prospects for future investigations are proposed.

Smaldino P, Moser D, Merico A. Noise and opinion dynamics: how ambiguity promotes pro-majority consensus in the presence of confirmation bias

Opinion dynamics are affected by cognitive biases and noise. While mathematical models have focused extensively on biases, we still know surprisingly little about how noise shapes opinion patterns. Here, we use an agent-based opinion dynamics model to investigate the interplay between confirmation bias-represented as bounded confidence-and different types of noise. After analysing where noise can enter social interaction, we propose a type of noise that has not been discussed so far, ambiguity noise. While previously considered types of noise acted on agents either before, after or independent of social interaction, ambiguity noise acts on communicated messages, assuming that socially transmitted opinions are inherently noisy. We find that noise can induce agreement when confirmation bias is moderate, but different types of noise require quite different conditions for this effect to occur. An application of our model to the climate change debate shows that at just the right mix of confirmation bias and ambiguity noise, opinions tend to converge to high levels of climate change concern. This result is not observed with the other types. Our findings highlight the importance of considering and distinguishing between the various types of noise and the unique role of ambiguity in opinion formation.

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth's finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Multi-objective ecological restoration priority in China: Cost-benefit optimization in different ecological performance regimes based on planetary boundaries

In the context of the "United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration", optimizing spatiotemporal arrangements for ecological restoration is an important approach to enhancing overall socioecological benefits for sustainable development. However, against the background of ecological degradation caused by the human use of most natural resources at levels that have approached or exceeded the safe and sustainable boundaries of ecosystems, it is key to explain how to optimize ecological restoration by classified management and optimal total benefits. In response to these issues, we combined spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics at the national scale in China to construct five ecological performance regimes defined by indicators that use planetary boundaries and ecological pressures which served as the basis for prioritizing ecological restoration areas and implementing zoning control. By integrating habitat conservation, biodiversity, water supply, and restoration cost constraints, seven ecological restoration scenarios were simulated to optimize the spatial layout of ecological restoration projects (ERPs). The results indicated that the provinces with unsustainable freshwater use, climate change, and land use accounted for more than 25%, 66.7%, and 25%, respectively, of the total area. Only 30% of the provinces experienced a decrease in environmental pressure. Based on the ecological performance regimes, ERP sites spanning the past 20 years were identified, and more than 50% of the priority areas were clustered in regime areas with increased ecological stress. As the restoration area targets doubled (40%) from the baseline (20%), a multi-objective scenario presents a trade-off between expanded ERPs in areas with highly beneficial effects and minimal restoration costs. In conclusion, a reasonable classification and management regime is the basis for targeted restoration. Coordinating multiple objectives and costs in ecological restoration is the key to maximizing socio-ecological benefits. Our study offered new perspectives on systematic and sustainable planning for ecological restoration.

Equity-based carbon neutral plan induces cross-regional coal leakage and industrial relocation

China as a major coal-consuming economy faces the challenge of balancing economic development and carbon neutrality goal. This paper incorporates both efficiency-based and equity-based carbon neutrality policies into a numerical model to quantitatively assess how coal reduction under various carbon-neutral policies affects energy mix, economic growth, and industrial structures by 2060. Results show the nationwide coal intensity will ultimately plunge by over 95% from 2017 to 2060, mainly attributed to the coal-phasing-out in most industries. National Gross Domestic Product losses reaches 4,951 billion USD in efficiency-based scenarios by 2060, and the economic losses are even more severe in less developed provinces, especially provinces in Northern China. Although the equity-based policy can reduce the economic burden for the Northern China, the equity-based policy is accompanied by a significant regional shift in coal across the country: eastern coal-intense industries will be relocated northward, leading to increases in embodied coal consumption.

Strategies for robust renovation of residential buildings in Switzerland

Building renovation is urgently required to reduce the environmental impact associated with the building stock. Typically, building renovation is performed by envelope insulation and/or changing the fossil-based heating system. The goal of this paper is to provide strategies for robust renovation considering uncertainties on the future evolution of climate, energy grid, and user behaviors, amongst others by applying life cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis. The study includes identifying optimal renovation options for the envelope and heating systems for building representatives from all construction periods that are currently in need of renovation in Switzerland. The findings emphasize the paramount importance of heating system replacements across all construction periods. Notably, when incorporating bio-based insulation materials, a balance emerges between environmental impact reduction and low energy operation costs. This facilitates robust, equitable, and low-carbon transformations in Switzerland and similar Northern European contexts while avoiding a carbon spike due to the embodied carbon of the renovation.

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

Assessing groundwater denitrification spatially is the key to targeted agricultural nitrogen regulation

Globally, food production for an ever-growing population is a well-known threat to the environment due to losses of excess reactive nitrogen (N) from agriculture. Since the 1980s, many countries of the Global North, such as Denmark, have successfully combatted N pollution in the aquatic environment by regulation and introduction of national agricultural one-size-fits-all mitigation measures. Despite this success, further reduction of the N load is required to meet the EU water directives demands, and implementation of additional targeted N regulation of agriculture has scientifically and politically been found to be a way forward. In this paper, we present a comprehensive concept to make future targeted N regulation successful environmentally and economically. The concept focus is on how and where to establish detailed maps of the groundwater denitrification potential (N retention) in areas, such as Denmark, covered by Quaternary deposits. Quaternary deposits are abundant in many parts of the world, and often feature very complex geological and geochemical architectures. We show that this subsurface complexity results in large local differences in groundwater N retention. Prioritization of the most complex areas for implementation of the new concept can be a cost-efficient way to achieve lower N impact on the aquatic environment.

Ecology, ethology, and evolution in the Anthropocene

The 53rd Ontario Ecology, Ethology, and Evolution Colloquium (OE3C 2023) took place at Western University (London, Canada) on 25-27 May 2023, attracting 160 participants. This Meeting Review aims not only to recapitulate what was discussed during the event, but also to provide a brief synthesis of how biologists can move forward. The event was organised and run by graduate students and postdoctoral researchers from the Department of Biology at Western University. With three international keynote speakers, seventy talks, and fifty poster presentations, the OE3C 2023 spanned a wide range of contemporary research in Ecology, Ethology, and Evolution ("the 3 E's"). The colloquium theme was "Surviving the Anthropocene: future steps for the 3 E's under pressing planetary issues", which was complemented by illustrations depicting the fauna and flora of the "Canadian Anthropocene". Participants discussed what biologists and researchers can do regarding future climate and environmental catastrophes. The meeting culminated in a panel discussion comprising three climate change specialists who examined topics such as the Anthropocene and the Great acceleration, the living planet index, and carbon bombs. Although not exhaustive, these topics served as a starting point for the necessary discussions about how biologists can contribute to the fight for the survival of life on Earth.

Higher temperature sensitivity of retrogressive thaw slump activity in the Arctic compared to the Third Pole

Climate change exacerbates permafrost thawing, resulting exceptionally intense retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) activity in the Arctic and Third Pole. However, comparative assessments of permafrost characteristics and RTS sensitivity under warming climate at both poles are still lacking. Here, the severity and temperature sensitivity of RTS were presented and compared using Tasselled Cap (TC) trend analysis of time-series Landsat images and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurement. RTS has a more severe growth trend in the Arctic cold permafrost region, also with a deformation rate of approximately 70 mm/year and cumulative displacement up to 120 mm. In comparison, the deformation rate in the Third Pole is approximately 50 mm/year. The RTS severity in the Arctic is about 1.5 times higher than in the Third Pole, primarily owing to different sensitivities of cold and warm permafrost under warming climate. The intensification and vulnerability of RTS have global implications on climatological processes, hydrology, carbon release and ground stability, thus calling for attention and effective governance action.

Reconstructing bifurcation diagrams of chaotic circuits with reservoir computing

Model-free reconstruction of bifurcation diagrams of Chua's circuits using the technique of parameter-aware reservoir computing is investigated. We demonstrate that (1) reservoir computer can be utilized as a noise filter to restore the system dynamics from noisy signals; (2) for a single Chua circuit, a machine trained by the noisy time series measured at several sampling states is capable of reconstructing the whole bifurcation diagram of the circuit with a high precision; and (3) for two coupled chaotic Chua circuits with mismatched parameters, the machine trained by the noisy time series measured at several coupling strengths is able to anticipate the variation of the synchronization degree of the coupled circuits with respect to the coupling strength over a wide range. Our studies verify the capability of the technique of parameter-aware reservoir computing in learning the dynamics of chaotic circuits from noisy signals, signifying the potential application of this technique in reconstructing the bifurcation diagram of real-world chaotic systems.

The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework-the planetary commons-which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.

Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales

Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.

Reconfiguration of Amazon's connectivity in the climate system

With the recent increase in deforestation, forest fires, and regional temperatures, the concerns around the rapid and complete collapse of the Amazon rainforest ecosystem have heightened. The thresholds of deforestation and the temperature increase required for such a catastrophic event are still uncertain. However, our analysis presented here shows that signatures of changing Amazon are already apparent in historical climate data sets. Here, we extend the methods of climate network analysis and apply them to study the temporal evolution of the connectivity between the Amazon rainforest and the global climate system. We observe that the Amazon rainforest is losing short-range connectivity and gaining more long-range connections, indicating shifts in regional-scale processes. Using embeddings inspired by manifold learning, we show that the Amazon connectivity patterns have undergone a fundamental shift in the 21st century. By investigating edge-based network metrics on similar regions to the Amazon, we see the changing properties of the Amazon are noticeable in comparison. Furthermore, we simulate diffusion and random walks on these networks and observe a faster spread of perturbations from the Amazon in recent decades. Our methodology innovations can act as a template for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of regional climate change and its impact on global climate using the toolbox of climate network analysis.

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social-ecological transformations

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions are already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental challenges with disruptive social changes-the Anthropocene condition-is not new. From food-producing hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to urban industrial food systems, the current planetary entanglement has its roots in millennia of evolving and accumulating sociocultural capabilities for shaping the cultured environments that our societies have always lived in (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative capabilities to shape environments are coupled with sociocultural adaptations enabling societies to more effectively shape and live in transformed environments, the social-ecological scales and intensities of these transformations can accelerate through a positive feedback loop of 'runaway sociocultural niche construction'. Efforts to achieve a better future for both people and planet will depend on guiding this runaway evolutionary process towards better outcomes by redirecting Earth's most disruptive force of nature: the power of human aspirations. To guide this unprecedented planetary force, cultural narratives that appeal to human aspirations for a better future will be more effective than narratives of environmental crisis and overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Arctic freshwater impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: status and prospects

Arguably, the most conspicuous evidence for anthropogenic climate change lies in the Arctic Ocean. For example, the summer-time Arctic sea ice extent has declined over the last 40 years and the Arctic Ocean freshwater storage has increased over the last 30 years. Coupled climate models project that this extra freshwater will pass Greenland to enter the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA) in the coming decades. Coupled climate models also project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the twenty-first century, associated with SPNA buoyancy increases. Yet, it remains unclear when the Arctic anthropogenic freshening signal will be detected in the SPNA, or what form the signal will take. Therefore, this article reviews and synthesizes the state of knowledge on Arctic Ocean and SPNA salinity variations and their causes. This article focuses on the export processes in data-constrained ocean circulation model hindcasts. One challenge is to quantify and understand the relative importance of different competing processes. This article also discusses the prospects to detect the emergence of Arctic anthropogenic freshening and the likely impacts on the AMOC. For this issue, the challenge is to distinguish anthropogenic signals from natural variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14-36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year-1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year-1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

Integrating carbon sequestration and biodiversity impacts in forested ecosystems: Concepts, cases, and policies

The challenges posed by climate change, biodiversity loss, and land-use are deeply interconnected and integrated solutions are needed. This paper presents results from 11 contributions to a special issue covering topics of integrated modeling and spatial prioritization, mass-balance studies, Earth Observation techniques, research infrastructure developments, and evaluation of policy measures and economic compensation schemes. The spatial scale of the studies ranges from detailed site-specific to a European scale. This paper briefly summarizes the main findings of these studies, makes some general overall conclusions, and identifies topics for further research and methods developments.

Public perceptions of climate tipping points

Coverage of climate tipping points has rapidly increased over the past 20 years. Despite this upsurge, there has been precious little research into how the public perceives these abrupt and/or irreversible large-scale risks. This article provides a nationally representative view on public perceptions of climate tipping points and possible societal responses to them (n = 1773). Developing a mixed-methods survey with cultural cognition theory, it shows that awareness among the British public is low. The public is doubtful about the future effectiveness of humanity's response to climate change in general, and significantly more doubtful about its response to tipping points specifically. Significantly more people with an egalitarian worldview judge tipping points likely to be crossed and to be a significant threat to humanity. All possible societal responses received strong support. The article ends by considering the prospects for 'cultural tipping elements' to tip support for climate policies across divergent cultural worldviews.

Arctic weather variability and connectivity

The Arctic's rapid sea ice decline may influence global weather patterns, making the understanding of Arctic weather variability (WV) vital for accurate weather forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events. Quantifying this WV and its impacts under human-induced climate change remains a challenge. Here we develop a complexity-based approach and discover a strong statistical correlation between intraseasonal WV in the Arctic and the Arctic Oscillation. Our findings highlight an increased variability in daily Arctic sea ice, attributed to its decline accelerated by global warming. This weather instability can influence broader regional patterns via atmospheric teleconnections, elevating risks to human activities and weather forecast predictability. Our analyses reveal these teleconnections and a positive feedback loop between Arctic and global weather instabilities, offering insights into how Arctic changes affect global weather. This framework bridges complexity science, Arctic WV, and its widespread implications.

Proposed solutions to anthropogenic climate change: A systematic literature review and a new way forward

Humanity is now facing what may be the biggest challenge to its existence: irreversible climate change brought about by human activity. Our planet is in a state of emergency, and we only have a short window of time (7-8 years) to enact meaningful change. The goal of this systematic literature review is to summarize the peer-reviewed literature on proposed solutions to climate change in the last 20 years (2002-2022), and to propose a framework for a unified approach to solving this climate change crisis. Solutions reviewed include a transition toward use of renewable energy resources, reduced energy consumption, rethinking the global transport sector, and nature-based solutions. This review highlights one of the most important but overlooked pieces in the puzzle of solving the climate change problem - the gradual shift to a plant-based diet and global phaseout of factory (industrialized animal) farming, the most damaging and prolific form of animal agriculture. The gradual global phaseout of industrialized animal farming can be achieved by increasingly replacing animal meat and other animal products with plant-based products, ending government subsidies for animal-based meat, dairy, and eggs, and initiating taxes on such products. Failure to act will ultimately result in a scenario of irreversible climate change with widespread famine and disease, global devastation, climate refugees, and warfare. We therefore suggest an "All Life" approach, invoking the interconnectedness of all life forms on our planet. The logistics for achieving this include a global standardization of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) or similar measures and the introduction of a regulatory body for verification of such measures. These approaches will help deliver environmental and sustainability benefits for our planet far beyond an immediate reduction in global warming.

Exploring the intensity, distribution and evolution of teleconnections using climate network analysis

Teleconnections refer to long-range climate system linkages occurring over typically thousands of kilometers. Generally speaking, most teleconnections are attributed to the transmission of energy and propagation of waves although the physical complexity and characteristics behind these waves are not fully understood. To address this knowledge gap, we develop a climate network-based approach to reveal their directions and distribution patterns, evaluate the intensity of teleconnections, and identify sensitive regions using global daily surface air temperature data. Our results reveal a stable average intensity distribution pattern for teleconnections across a substantial spatiotemporal scale from 1948 to 2021, with the extent and intensity of teleconnection impacts increasing more prominently in the Southern Hemisphere over the past 37 years. Furthermore, we pinpoint climate-sensitive regions, such as southeastern Australia, which are likely to face increasing impacts due to global warming. Our proposed method offers new insights into the dynamics of global climate patterns and can inform strategies to address climate change and extreme events.

Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions

Degrowth advocates argue for structural transformations in how economies and societies prioritize material wealth accumulation to reduce the negative effects of future anthropogenic climate change. Degrowth proponents argue that human economic activity could be lessened, and societies transformed to prioritize improved wellbeing, reducing the threat of climate change. This paper explores implications of alternative patterns of economic growth with transformational policy pathways (i.e., redistribution) to assess what effects economic growth and broader policies have on changing patterns of human development across both the Global North and South. Using the International Futures model, this article shows that negative growth and societal transformations in the Global North are possible without dramatically damaging long-term global socioeconomic development, though these interventions do not solve the global climate crisis, reducing future cumulative carbon emissions by 10.5% through 2100. On the other hand, a global negative growth scenario will significantly reduce future cumulative carbon emissions (45%) but also dramatically undermines the pursuit of global development goals, like the elimination of poverty. Even with global policies that significantly increase cash transfers to the poor and retired, dramatically improve income inequality, and eliminate military spending, the Global Negative Growth Big Push scenario leads to an increase of 15 percentage points in global extreme poverty by 2100.

Network Modeling for Post-Entry Management of Invasive Pest Species in the Philippines: The Case of the Colorado Potato Beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say, 1824) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Crop shifting is considered as an important strategy to secure future food supply in the face of climate change. However, use of this adaptation strategy needs to consider the risk posed by changes in the geographic range of pests that feed on selected crops. Failure to account for this threat can lead to disastrous results. Models can be used to give insights on how best to manage these risks. In this paper, the socioecological process graph technique is used to develop a network model of interactions among crops, invasive pests, and biological control agents. The model is applied to a prospective analysis of the potential entry of the Colorado potato beetle into the Philippines just as efforts are being made to scale up potato cultivation as a food security measure. The modeling scenarios indicate the existence of alternative viable pest control strategies based on the use of biological control agents. Insights drawn from the model can be used as the basis to ecologically engineer agricultural systems that are resistant to pests.

A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then to identify, date, characterize, and rank past critical transitions in terms of importance, thus possibly yielding a more thorough perspective on climatic history. To illustrate such an approach, which is inspired by the punctuated equilibrium perspective on the theory of evolution, we have analyzed 2 key high-resolution datasets: the CENOGRID marine compilation (past 66 Myr), and North Atlantic U1308 record (past 3.3 Myr). By combining recurrence analysis of the individual time series with a multivariate representation of the system based on the theory of the quasi-potential, we identify the key abrupt transitions associated with major regime changes that separate various clusters of climate variability. This allows interpreting the time-evolution of the system as a trajectory taking place in a dynamical landscape, whose multiscale features describe a hierarchy of metastable states and associated tipping points.

World scientists' warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot

Previously, anthropogenic ecological overshoot has been identified as a fundamental cause of the myriad symptoms we see around the globe today from biodiversity loss and ocean acidification to the disturbing rise in novel entities and climate change. In the present paper, we have examined this more deeply, and explore the behavioural drivers of overshoot, providing evidence that overshoot is itself a symptom of a deeper, more subversive modern crisis of human behaviour. We work to name and frame this crisis as 'the Human Behavioural Crisis' and propose the crisis be recognised globally as a critical intervention point for tackling ecological overshoot. We demonstrate how current interventions are largely physical, resource intensive, slow-moving and focused on addressing the symptoms of ecological overshoot (such as climate change) rather than the distal cause (maladaptive behaviours). We argue that even in the best-case scenarios, symptom-level interventions are unlikely to avoid catastrophe or achieve more than ephemeral progress. We explore three drivers of the behavioural crisis in depth: economic growth; marketing; and pronatalism. These three drivers directly impact the three 'levers' of overshoot: consumption, waste and population. We demonstrate how the maladaptive behaviours of overshoot stemming from these three drivers have been catalysed and perpetuated by the intentional exploitation of previously adaptive human impulses. In the final sections of this paper, we propose an interdisciplinary emergency response to the behavioural crisis by, amongst other things, the shifting of social norms relating to reproduction, consumption and waste. We seek to highlight a critical disconnect that is an ongoing societal gulf in communication between those that know such as scientists working within limits to growth, and those members of the citizenry, largely influenced by social scientists and industry, that must act.

Resurrecting Gaia: harnessing the Free Energy Principle to preserve life as we know it

This paper applies the Free Energy Principle (FEP) to propose that the lack of action in response to the global ecological crisis should be considered a maladaptive symptom of human activity that we refer to as biophilia deficiency syndrome. The paper is organised into four parts: the characterisation of the natural world under the Gaia Hypothesis, the employment of the FEP as a description of the behavior of self-organising systems, the application of the FEP to Gaia to understand coupling dynamics between living systems and purportedly non-living planetary processes, and the offering of positive interventions for addressing the current state of ecological crisis under this framework. For the latter, we emphasize the importance of perturbing stuck states for healthy development, and the necessary appreciation of life existing as nested systems at multiple levels in a hierarchy. We propose the development of human biophilia virtue in accordance with the FEP as a practical intervention for treating biophilia deficiency syndrome and helping to safeguard the balance of planetary processes and the integrity of living systems that depend on them, offering some examples of what this might look like in practice. Overall, this paper provides novel insights into how to catalyse meaningful ecological change, proposing a deliberate and disruptive approach to addressing the dysfunctional relationship between humans and the rest of the natural world.

What does the future look like for kelp when facing multiple stressors?

As primary producers and ecosystem engineers, kelp (generally Order Laminariales) are ecologically important, and their decline could have far-reaching consequences. Kelp are valuable in forming habitats for fish and invertebrates and are crucial for adaptation to climate change by creating coastal defenses and in providing key functions, such as carbon sequestration and food provision. Kelp are threatened by multiple stressors, such as climate change, over-harvesting of predators, and pollution. In this opinion paper, we discuss how these stressors may interact to affect kelp, and how this varies under different contexts. We argue that more research that bridges kelp conservation and multiple stressor theory is needed and outline key questions that should be addressed as a priority. For instance, it is important to understand how previous exposure (either to earlier generations or life stages) determines responses to emerging stressors, and how responses in kelp scale up to alter food webs and ecosystem functioning. By increasing the temporal and biological complexity of kelp research in this way, we will improve our understanding allowing better predictions. This research is essential for the effective conservation and potential restoration of kelp in our rapidly changing world.

Weak transhumanism: moderate enhancement as a non-radical path to radical enhancement

Transhumanism aims to bring about radical human enhancement. In 'Truly Human Enhancement' Agar (2014) provides a strong argument against producing radically enhancing effects in agents. This leaves the transhumanist in a quandary-how to achieve radical enhancement whilst avoiding the problem of radically enhancing effects? This paper aims to show that transhumanism can overcome the worries of radically enhancing effects by instead pursuing radical human enhancement via incremental moderate human enhancements (Weak Transhumanism). In this sense, weak transhumanism is much like traditional transhumanism in its aims, but starkly different in its execution. This version of transhumanism is weaker given the limitations brought about by having to avoid radically enhancing effects. I consider numerous objections to weak transhumanism and conclude that the account survives each one. This paper's proposal of 'weak transhumanism' has the upshot of providing a way out of the 'problem of radically enhancing effects' for the transhumanist, but this comes at a cost-the restrictive process involved in applying multiple moderate enhancements in order to achieve radical enhancement will most likely be dissatisfying for the transhumanist, however, it is, I contend, the best option available.

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked^1-3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently^4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)⁴. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Recent exposure to environmental stochasticity does not determine the demographic resilience of natural populations

Escalating climatic and anthropogenic pressures expose ecosystems worldwide to increasingly stochastic environments. Yet, our ability to forecast the responses of natural populations to this increased environmental stochasticity is impeded by a limited understanding of how exposure to stochastic environments shapes demographic resilience. Here, we test the association between local environmental stochasticity and the resilience attributes (e.g. resistance, recovery) of 2242 natural populations across 369 animal and plant species. Contrary to the assumption that past exposure to frequent environmental shifts confers a greater ability to cope with current and future global change, we illustrate how recent environmental stochasticity regimes from the past 50 years do not predict the inherent resistance or recovery potential of natural populations. Instead, demographic resilience is strongly predicted by the phylogenetic relatedness among species, with survival and developmental investments shaping their responses to environmental stochasticity. Accordingly, our findings suggest that demographic resilience is a consequence of evolutionary processes and/or deep-time environmental regimes, rather than recent-past experiences.

More than unfamiliar environmental connection to super typhoon climatology

This study employs a refined geometric variability model to look at the environmental relationship to super typhoon climatology, which is one of the major concerns about climate change and disasters. It is noted that adding only several recent years leads to a remarkable weakening of the environmental explanatory power on super typhoon climatology. Looking into the annual covariance elements, we find that the recent observations showing a group of outlying events with a particular drift are more than unfamiliar compared to the former stable relationship from 1985 through 2012. Greater uncertainty thereby amplifies concerns about the looming climate crisis.

Carbonic Anhydrase Enhanced UV-Crosslinked PEG-DA/PEO Extruded Hydrogel Flexible Filaments and Durable Grids for CO2 Capture

In this study, poly (ethylene glycol) diacrylate/poly (ethylene oxide) (PEG-DA/PEO) interpenetrating polymer network hydrogels (IPNH) were extruded into 1D filaments and 2D grids. The suitability of this system for enzyme immobilization and CO₂ capture application was validated. IPNH chemical composition was verified spectroscopically using FTIR. The extruded filament had an average tensile strength of 6.5 MPa and elongation at break of 80%. IPNH filament can be twisted and bent and therefore is suitable for further processing using conventional textile fabrication methods. Initial activity recovery of the entrapped carbonic anhydrase (CA) calculated from esterase activity, showed a decrease with an increase in enzyme dose, while activity retention of high enzyme dose samples was over 87% after 150 days of repeated washing and testing. IPNH 2D grids that were assembled into spiral roll structured packings exhibited increased CO₂ capture efficiency with increasing enzyme dose. Long-term CO₂ capture performance of the CA immobilized IPNH structured packing was tested in a continuous solvent recirculation experiment for 1032 h, where 52% of the initial CO₂ capture performance and 34% of the enzyme contribution were retained. These results demonstrate the feasibility of using rapid UV-crosslinking to form enzyme-immobilized hydrogels by a geometrically-controllable extrusion process that uses analogous linear polymers for both viscosity enhancement and chain entanglement purposes, and achieves high activity retention and performance stability of the immobilized CA. Potential uses for this system extend to 3D printing inks and enzyme immobilization matrices for such diverse applications as biocatalytic reactors and biosensor fabrication.

A multi-modal machine learning approach to detect extreme rainfall events in Sicily

In 2021 almost 300 mm of rain, nearly half of the average annual rainfall, fell near Catania (Sicily Island, Italy). Such events took place in just a few hours, with dramatic consequences on the environmental, social, economic, and health systems of the region. These phenomena are now very common in various countries all around the world: this is the reason why, detecting local extreme rainfall events is a crucial prerequisite for planning actions, able to reverse possibly intensified dramatic future scenarios. In this paper, the Affinity Propagation algorithm, a clustering algorithm grounded on machine learning, was applied, to the best of our knowledge, for the first time, to detect extreme rainfall areas in Sicily. This was possible by using a high-frequency, large dataset we collected, ranging from 2009 to 2021 which we named RSE (the Rainfall Sicily Extreme dataset). Weather indicators were then been employed to validate the results, thus confirming the presence of recent anomalous rainfall events in eastern Sicily. We believe that easy-to-use and multi-modal data science techniques, such as the one proposed in this study, could give rise to significant improvements in policy-making for successfully contrasting climate change.

Anthropogenic atmospheric deposition caused the nutrient and toxic metal enrichment of the enclosed lakes in North China

Anthropogenic emissions have resulted in increases in the atmospheric fluxes of both nutrient and toxic elements. However, the long-term geochemical impacts on lake sediments of deposition activities have not been clearly clarified. We selected two small enclosed lakes in northern China-Gonghai, strongly influenced by anthropogenic activities, and Yueliang lake, relatively weakly influenced by anthropogenic activities-to reconstruct historical trends of atmospheric deposition on the geochemistry of the recent sediments. The results showed an abrupt rise in the nutrient levels in Gonghai and the enrichment of toxic metal elements from 1950 (the Anthropocene) onwards. While, at Yueliang lake, the rise on TN was from 1990 onwards. These consequences are attributable to the aggravation of anthropogenic atmospheric deposition in N, P and toxic metals, from fertilizer consumption, mining and coal combustion. The intensity of anthropogenic deposition is considerable, which leave a significant stratigraphic signal of the Anthropocene in lake sediments.

Stabilization of mineral-associated organic carbon in Pleistocene permafrost

Ice-rich Pleistocene-age permafrost is particularly vulnerable to rapid thaw, which may quickly expose a large pool of sedimentary organic matter (OM) to microbial degradation and lead to emissions of climate-sensitive greenhouse gases. Protective physico-chemical mechanisms may, however, restrict microbial accessibility and reduce OM decomposition; mechanisms that may be influenced by changing environmental conditions during sediment deposition. Here we study different OM fractions in Siberian permafrost deposited during colder and warmer periods of the past 55,000 years. Among known stabilization mechanisms, the occlusion of OM in aggregates is of minor importance, while 33-74% of the organic carbon is associated with small, <6.3 µm mineral particles. Preservation of carbon in mineral-associated OM is enhanced by reactive iron minerals particularly during cold and dry climate, reflected by low microbial CO₂ production in incubation experiments. Warmer and wetter conditions reduce OM stabilization, shown by more decomposed mineral-associated OM and up to 30% higher CO₂ production. This shows that considering the stability and bioavailability of Pleistocene-age permafrost carbon is important for predicting future climate-carbon feedback.