Climate change and evolutionary adaptation

Pyrethroid resistance distribution in Triatoma infestans and environmental association along the Argentine endemic zone

Insecticide resistance is considered a barrier to chemical control of Triatoma infestans, the main vector of Chagas disease in the Southern Cone of South America. Although initiatives to reduce the incidence of the disease in the region have integrated different strategies, they have mainly relied on vector elimination using pyrethroid insecticides such as deltamethrin. Reports of pyrethroid resistance in connection with T. infestans control failures first emerged in northern Argentina and southern Bolivia. Recently, a mosaic pyrethroid-resistant focus has been described in the center of the Argentine Gran Chaco (Department of General Güemes, Chaco Province), characterized by the presence of susceptible and very highly resistant populations in the same area. The involvement of different resistance mechanisms has been proposed, together with the contribution of environmental variables that promote the toxicological heterogeneity described. In the endemic zone of Argentina, however, new questions arise: Are there any other clusters of resistance? Is there a relationship between the distribution of resistance and environmental variables (as has been observed at smaller scale)? We studied toxicological data from insects collected and analyzed at 224 localities between 2010 and 2020 as part of the resistance monitoring conducted by the Chagas National Program. The sites were classified according to the survival rate of insects exposed to a discriminant dose of deltamethrin: 0-0.19 were considered susceptible, 0.2-0.79 low-resistance, and 0.8-1 high-resistance. Localities were georeferenced to describe the spatial distribution of resistance and to identify environmental variables (demographics, land use, urbanization, connectivity, and climate) potentially associated with resistance. We used Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) to examine the association between resistance and environmental predictors, selecting error distributions based on the response variable definition. For the entire period, 197 susceptible localities were distributed across the endemic zone. Localities with different survival rates were found throughout the area; 9 high-resistance localities circled the two previously identified resistant foci, and 18 low-resistance in 6 provinces, highlighting their relevance for control planning. Precipitation variables were linked to resistance in all the GLMs evaluated. Presence/absence models were the most accurate, with precipitation, distance from the capital city, and land use contributing to the distribution of resistance. This information could be valuable for improving T. infestans control strategies in future scenarios characterized by unpredictable changes in land use and precipitation.

Climatic variation allows montane willows to escape an adaptive trade-off

Adaptive responses to climate change, based on heritable variation in stress tolerance, may be important for plant population persistence. It is unclear which populations will mount the strongest future adaptive responses. It may be fruitful to identify populations that have escaped trade-offs among performance traits, which can hinder adaptation. Barring strong genetic constraints, the extent of trade-offs may depend on spatial relationships among climate variables shaping different traits. Here, we test for climate-driven ecotypic variation and trade-offs among drought and freezing sensitivity, and growth, for Lemmon's willow (Salix lemmonii) in a common garden study of 90 genotypes from 38 sites in the Sierra Nevada, USA. Salix lemmonii exhibits ecotypic variation in leaf turgor loss point, a measure of drought sensitivity, from -0.95 to -0.74 MPa along a gradient of spring snowpack. We also find variation in spring freezing sensitivity with minimum May temperature. However, we find no trade-off, as the climatic gradients shaping these traits are spatially uncorrelated in our study region, despite being negatively correlated across the Sierra Nevada. Species may escape adaptive trade-offs in geographic regions where climate variables are spatially decoupled. These regions may represent valuable reservoirs of heritable adaptive phenotypic variation.

The value of long-term ecological research for evolutionary insights

Scientists must have an integrative understanding of ecology and evolution across spatial and temporal scales to predict how species will respond to global change. Although comprehensively investigating these processes in nature is challenging, the infrastructure and data from long-term ecological research networks can support cross-disciplinary investigations. We propose using these networks to advance our understanding of fundamental evolutionary processes and responses to global change. For ecologists, we outline how long-term ecological experiments can be expanded for evolutionary inquiry, and for evolutionary biologists, we illustrate how observed long-term ecological patterns may motivate new evolutionary questions. We advocate for collaborative, multi-site investigations and discuss barriers to conducting evolutionary work at network sites. Ultimately, these networks offer valuable information and opportunities to improve predictions of species' responses to global change.

Rethinking ecological niches and geographic distributions in face of pervasive human influence in the Anthropocene

Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.

Forest genomics in the Caucasus through the lens of its dominant tree species - Fagus orientalis

The last glacial period is known to have greatly influenced the demographic history of temperate forest trees, with important range contractions and post-glacial expansions that led to the formation of multiple genetic lineages and secondary contact zones in the Northern Hemisphere. These dynamics have been extensively studied for European and North American species but are still poorly understood in other temperate regions of rich biodiversity such as the Caucasus. Our study helps filling that gap by deciphering the genomic landscapes of F. orientalis across the South Caucasus. The use of genome-wide data confirmed a past demographic history strongly influenced by the Last Glacial Maximum, revealing two disjunct glacial refugia in the Colchis and Hyrcanian regions. The resulting patterns of genetic diversity, load and differentiation are not always concordant across the region, with genetic load pinpointing the location of the glacial refugia more efficiently than genetic diversity alone. The Hyrcanian forests show depleted genetic diversity and substantial isolation, even if long-distance gene flow is still present with the main centre of diversity in the Greater Caucasus. Finally, we characterize a strong heterogeneity of genetic diversity and differentiation along the species chromosomes, with noticeably a first chromosome showing low diversity and weak differentiation.

Pesticide exposure triggers sex-specific inter- and transgenerational effects conditioned by past sexual selection

Environmental variation often induces plastic responses in organisms that can trigger changes in subsequent generations through non-genetic inheritance mechanisms. Such transgenerational plasticity thus consists of environmentally induced non-random phenotypic modifications that are transmitted through generations. Transgenerational effects may vary according to the sex of the organism experiencing the environmental perturbation, the sex of their descendants or both, but whether they are affected by past sexual selection is unknown. Here, we use experimental evolution on an insect model system to conduct a first test of the involvement of sexual selection history in shaping transgenerational plasticity in the face of rapid environmental change (exposure to pesticide). We manipulated evolutionary history in terms of the intensity of sexual selection for over 80 generations before exposing individuals to the toxicant. We found that sexual selection history constrained adaptation under rapid environmental change. We also detected inter- and transgenerational effects of pesticide exposure in the form of increased fitness and longevity. These cross-generational influences of toxicants were sex dependent (they affected only male descendants), and intergenerational, but not transgenerational, plasticity was modulated by sexual selection history. Our results highlight the complexity of intra-, inter- and transgenerational influences of past selection and environmental stress on phenotypic expression.

Multi-decadal warming alters predator's effect on prey community composition

Predator responses to warming can occur via phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation or a combination of both, changing their top-down effects on prey communities. However, we lack evidence of how warming-induced evolutionary changes in predators may influence natural food webs. Here, we ask whether wild fish subject to warming across multiple generations differ in their impacts on prey communities compared with their nearby conspecifics experiencing a natural thermal regime. We carried out a common garden mesocosm experiment with larval perch (Perca fluviatilis), originating from a heated or reference coastal environment, feeding on zooplankton communities under a gradient of experimental temperatures. Overall, in the presence of fish of heated origin, zooplankton abundance was higher and did not change with experimental warming, whereas in the presence of fish of unheated origin, it declined with experimental temperature. Responses in zooplankton taxonomic and size composition suggest that larvae of heated origin consume more large-sized taxa as the temperature increases. Our findings show that differences between fish populations, potentially representing adaptation to their long-term thermal environments, can affect the abundance, biomass, size and species composition of their prey communities. This suggests that rapid microevolution in predators to ongoing climate warming might have indirect cross-generational ecological consequences propagating through food webs.

Diet effects on ectotherm thermal performance

The environment is changing rapidly, and considerable research is aimed at understanding the capacity of organisms to respond. Changes in environmental temperature are particularly concerning as most animals are ectothermic, with temperature considered a key factor governing their ecology, biogeography, behaviour and physiology. The ability of ectotherms to persist in an increasingly warm, variable, and unpredictable future will depend on their nutritional status. Nutritional resources (e.g. food availability, quality, options) vary across space and time and in response to environmental change, but animals also have the capacity to alter how much they eat and what they eat, which may help them improve their performance under climate change. In this review, we discuss the state of knowledge in the intersection between animal nutrition and temperature. We take a mechanistic approach to describe nutrients (i.e. broad macronutrients, specific lipids, and micronutrients) that may impact thermal performance and discuss what is currently known about their role in ectotherm thermal plasticity, thermoregulatory behaviour, diet preference, and thermal tolerance. We finish by describing how this topic can inform ectotherm biogeography, behaviour, and aquaculture research.

Evaluation of genetic consequences of stocking on the southern-margin populations of white-spotted charr

Coldwater-adapted freshwater fishes, especially their populations along warm-range margins, are most vulnerable to the climate oscillations associated with global warming. Stocking is a major strategy for avoiding the extinction of these species. However, while stocking can reverse the decline of isolated populations, it may also result in a loss of genetic diversity in the native local population due to the introgressive replacement of hatchery genes. To plan an adequate strategy for conserving locally adapted populations, the genetic impacts of stocking on native lineages should be evaluated from small river branches to wide-ranging drainage areas. We investigated the population genetic structure of white-spotted charr (Salvelinus leucomaenis) within its southern range (Lake Biwa basin, Japan). By applying genome-wide SNP analysis to the population's genetic structure, we assessed the extent of genetic introgression resulting from stocking. White-spotted charr in the Lake Biwa watershed constitutes a distinctive genetic group, within which apparent genetic differentiation was observed. The hatchery-reared fish line commonly used for supplementation stocking in the catchment was discernable from the native population, enabling us to analyze genetic introgression across the entire drainage area. Admixed individuals resulting from hatchery introgression were observed in most of the stocked sites that showed relatively high heterozygosity and nucleotide diversity. However, their genetic differentiation was much lower than that of native populations. The supplementation history as well as the road availability contributed substantially to the introgression of hatchery genes. Populations with the native genetic structure remained in the upstream regions of the tested rivers. However, their heterozygosity and nucleotide diversity were low when compared with that of the populations with hatchery supplementation. Our results shed light on the genetic impacts of stocking on isolated native populations and suggest that conventional supplementation methods cannot preserve a unique biodiversity in the distribution margin.

Expression-environment associations in transcriptomic heat stress responses for a global plant lineage

The increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves will intensify stress on plants. Given regional variation in heatwave exposure and expected differences in thermal tolerance between species it is unlikely that all plant species will be affected equally by climate change. However, little is currently known about variation in the responses of plants to heat stress, or how those responses differ among closely related species adapted to different environments. Here we quantify the response of 17 Acacia species (175 RNA-seq libraries), from across Australia's diverse biomes, to a multi-day experimental heatwave treatment to identify variation in transcriptomic and physiological responses to heat stress. Genes with known heat response functions showed consistent responses across Acacia species. Up to 10% of all genes and over 100 gene families showed significant clinal variation in the magnitude of their expression plasticity across species. Specifically, gene families linked to the temperature stress response were overrepresented among significant relationships with home range temperature conditions. Gene expression responses seen on the first day of the heatwave were more frequently associated with home range climates, while expression responses by day four were more commonly related to photosystem II acclimation. Comparative transcriptomics on non-model species has the potential to provide key information on stress response plasticity, especially when linked with our understanding of model species. Our study indicates that the pressing challenge to identifying potentially vulnerable species to climate change could be benefited by the further exploration of clinal variation in transcriptome plasticity.

Response of wild aquatic insect communities to thermal variation through comparative landscape transcriptomics

Fluctuations in temperature are recognized as a potent driver of selection pressure, fostering genomic variations that are crucial for the adaptation and survival of organisms under selection. Notably, water temperature is a pivotal factor influencing aquatic organism persistence. By comprehending how aquatic organisms respond to shifts in water temperature, we can understand their potential physiological adaptations to environmental change in one or multiple species. This, in turn, contributes to the formulation of biologically relevant guidelines for the landscape scale transcriptome profile of organisms in lotic systems. Here, we investigated the distinct responses of seven stream stonefly species, collected from four geographical regions across Japan, to variations in temperature, including atmospheric and water temperatures. We achieved this by assessing the differences in gene expression through RNA-sequencing within individual species and exploring the patterns of community-genes among different species. We identified 735 genes that exhibited differential expressions across the temperature gradient. Remarkably, the community displayed expression levels differences of respiration and metabolic genes. Additionally, the diversity in molecular functions appeared to be linked to spatial variation, with water temperature differences potentially contributing to the overall functional diversity of genes. We found 22 community-genes with consistent expression patterns among species in response to water temperature variations. These genes related to respiration, metabolism and development exhibited a clear gradient providing robust evidence of divergent adaptive responses to water temperature. Our findings underscore the differential adaptation of stonefly species to local environmental conditions, suggesting that shared responses in gene expression may occur across multiple species under similar environmental conditions. This study emphasizes the significance of considering various species when assessing the impacts of environmental changes on aquatic insect communities and understanding potential mechanisms to cope with such changes.

Seasonality of forest insects: why diapause matters

Insects have major impacts on forest ecosystems, from herbivory and soil-nutrient cycling to killing trees at a large scale. Forest insects from temperate, tropical, and subtropical regions have evolved strategies to respond to seasonality; for example, by entering diapause, to mitigate adversity and to synchronize lifecycles with favorable periods. Here, we show that distinct functional groups of forest insects; that is, canopy dwellers, trunk-associated species, and soil/litter-inhabiting insects, express a variety of diapause strategies, but do not show systematic differences in diapause strategy depending on functional group. Due to the overall similarities in diapause strategies, we can better estimate the impacts of anthropogenic change on forest insect populations and, consequently, on key ecosystems.

Polygenic adaptation of a cosmopolitan pest to a novel thermal environment

The fluctuation in temperature poses a significant challenge for poikilothermic organisms, notably insects, particularly in the context of changing climatic conditions. In insects, temperature adaptation has been driven by polygenes. In addition to genes that directly affect traits (core genes), other genes (peripheral genes) may also play a role in insect temperature adaptation. This study focuses on two peripheral genes, the GRIP and coiled-coil domain containing 2 (GCC2) and karyopherin subunit beta 1 (KPNB1). These genes are differentially expressed at different temperatures in the cosmopolitan pest, Plutella xylostella. GCC2 and KPNB1 in P. xylostella were cloned, and their relative expression patterns were identified. Reduced capacity for thermal adaptation (development, reproduction and response to temperature extremes) in the GCC2-deficient and KPNB1-deficient P. xylostella strains, which were constructed by CRISPR/Cas9 technique. Deletion of the PxGCC2 or PxKPNB1 genes in P. xylostella also had a differential effect on gene expression for many traits including stress resistance, resistance to pesticides, involved in immunity, trehalose metabolism, fatty acid metabolism and so forth. The ability of the moth to adapt to temperature via different pathways is likely to be key to its ability to remain an important pest species under predicted climate change conditions.

Ecological genomics in the Northern krill uncovers loci for local adaptation across ocean basins

Krill are vital as food for many marine animals but also impacted by global warming. To learn how they and other zooplankton may adapt to a warmer world we studied local adaptation in the widespread Northern krill (Meganyctiphanes norvegica). We assemble and characterize its large genome and compare genome-scale variation among 74 specimens from the colder Atlantic Ocean and warmer Mediterranean Sea. The 19 Gb genome likely evolved through proliferation of retrotransposons, now targeted for inactivation by extensive DNA methylation, and contains many duplicated genes associated with molting and vision. Analysis of 760 million SNPs indicates extensive homogenizing gene-flow among populations. Nevertheless, we detect signatures of adaptive divergence across hundreds of genes, implicated in photoreception, circadian regulation, reproduction and thermal tolerance, indicating polygenic adaptation to light and temperature. The top gene candidate for ecological adaptation was nrf-6, a lipid transporter with a Mediterranean variant that may contribute to early spring reproduction. Such variation could become increasingly important for fitness in Atlantic stocks. Our study underscores the widespread but uneven distribution of adaptive variation, necessitating characterization of genetic variation among natural zooplankton populations to understand their adaptive potential, predict risks and support ocean conservation in the face of climate change.

Water wisteria genome reveals environmental adaptation and heterophylly regulation in amphibious plants

Heterophylly is a phenomenon whereby an individual plant dramatically changes leaf shape in response to the surroundings. Hygrophila difformis (Acanthaceae; water wisteria), has recently emerged as a model plant to study heterophylly because of its striking leaf shape variation in response to various environmental factors. When submerged, H. difformis often develops complex leaves, but on land it develops simple leaves. Leaf complexity is also influenced by other factors, such as light density, humidity, and temperature. Here, we sequenced and assembled the H. difformis chromosome-level genome (scaffold N50: 60.43 Mb, genome size: 871.92 Mb), which revealed 36 099 predicted protein-coding genes distributed over 15 pseudochromosomes. H. difformis diverged from its relatives during the Oligocene climate-change period and expanded gene families related to its amphibious habit. Genes related to environmental stimuli, leaf development, and other pathways were differentially expressed in submerged and terrestrial conditions, possibly modulating morphological and physiological acclimation to changing environments. We also found that auxin plays a role in H. difformis heterophylly. Finally, we discovered candidate genes that respond to different environmental conditions and elucidated the role of LATE MERISTEM IDENTITY 1 (LMI1) in heterophylly. We established H. difformis as a model for studying interconnections between environmental adaptation and morphogenesis.

The macro-eco-evolutionary interplay between dispersal, competition and landscape structure in generating biodiversity

Theory links dispersal and diversity, predicting the highest diversity at intermediate dispersal levels. However, the modulation of this relationship by macro-eco-evolutionary mechanisms and competition within a landscape is still elusive. We examine the interplay between dispersal, competition and landscape structure in shaping biodiversity over 5 million years in a dynamic archipelago landscape. We model allopatric speciation, temperature niche, dispersal, competition, trait evolution and trade-offs between competitive and dispersal traits. Depending on dispersal abilities and their interaction with landscape structure, our archipelago exhibits two 'connectivity regimes', that foster speciation events among the same group of islands. Peaks of diversity (i.e. alpha, gamma and phylogenetic), occurred at intermediate dispersal; while competition shifted diversity peaks towards higher dispersal values for each connectivity regime. This shift demonstrates how competition can boost allopatric speciation events through the evolution of thermal specialists, ultimately limiting geographical ranges. Even in a simple landscape, multiple intermediate dispersal diversity relationships emerged, all shaped similarly and according to dispersal and competition strength. Our findings remain valid as dispersal- and competitive-related traits evolve and trade-off; potentially leaving identifiable biodiversity signatures, particularly when trade-offs are imposed. Overall, we scrutinize the convoluted relationships between dispersal, species interactions and landscape structure on macro-eco-evolutionary processes, with lasting imprints on biodiversity.This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Effect of Warming on Personality of Mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) and Medaka Fish (Oryzias latipes)

Global warming may accelerate the process of biological invasions, and invasive species that can quickly adapt to new environments will have a negative impact on native species. Animal personalities have significant implications for ecology and evolution. However, few studies have simultaneously examined the combined effects of climate warming and biological invasions on native species. In this study, we hypothesized that temperature was positively correlated with personality, and invasive species had stronger personalities than native species. Accordingly, we established control (20 °C) and warming groups (20 °C, 25 °C, and 30 °C) to rear mosquitofish and medaka fish, individuals acclimatized to rearing temperatures for 7 days, then measured their personalities (sociability, exploration, novelty, and boldness). The results showed that individuals exhibited repeatable variation along the four behavioral axes across all temperature conditions, providing evidence for the presence of personalities. Significant positive correlations were found between each pair of behaviors, indicating the presence of behavioral syndrome. Sociability and exploration were most affected by temperature, showing increasing trends in sociability, exploration, and novelty in both invasive and native species with rising temperatures. Compared to medaka fish, mosquitofish exhibited higher exploration and lower sociability at elevated temperatures, while showing little change in boldness. Our results provide evidence that increased temperatures may promote biological invasions and pose a potential threat to the survival of native species. These findings are significant for understanding the complex impacts of climate change on ecosystems and for formulating effective biodiversity preservation strategies.

Climate change will lead to range shifts and genetic diversity losses of dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe

Desertification is known to be a major threat to biodiversity, yet our understanding of the consequent decline in biodiversity remains insufficient. Here, we predicted climate change-induced range shifts and genetic diversity losses in three model dung beetles: Colobopterus erraticus, Cheironitis eumenes, and Gymnopleurus mopsus, distributed across the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe, areas known for desertification. Phylogeographic analyses of mitochondrial COI sequences and species distribution modeling, based on extensive field investigations spanning 14 years, were performed. Species confined to a single biome were predicted to contract and shift their distribution in response to climate change, whereas widespread species was predicted to expand even if affected by range shifts. We indicated that all species are expected to experience significant haplotype losses, yet the presence of high singleton frequencies and low genetic divergence across geographic configurations and lineages mitigate loss of genetic diversity. Notably, Cheironitis eumenes, a desert species with low genetic diversity, appears to be the most vulnerable to climate change due to the extensive degradation in the Gobi Desert. This is the first study to predict the response of insects to desertification in the Gobi Desert. Our findings highlight that dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe might experience high rates of occupancy turnover and genetic loss, which could reshuffle the species composition.

The ZcVg3 Gene Regulates the Reproduction and Lifespan of Female Zeugodacus cucurbitae (Coquillett) Mediated by Short-Term High Temperatures

Zeugodacus cucurbitae (Coquillett) is a significant pest affecting fruit and vegetables in tropical and subtropical regions, and its development and reproduction are enhanced after exposure to short-term high-temperature stress at 45 °C. Vitellogenin (Vg) is an essential precursor of yolk protein formation in eggs and plays a vital role in the ovarian development of insects. Interfering with the Z. cucurbitae vitellogenin receptor (ZcVgR) gene in short-term high-temperature conditions decreases the fecundity of female adults, while the transcription level of the ZcVg3 gene increases. To elucidate the reproductive function of the ZcVg3 gene and the synergistic relationship among the ZcVgs genes under short-term high temperatures, this study injected siRNA to interfere with the ZcVg3 gene after subjecting Z. cucurbitae to a 1 h treatment at 45 °C and 25 °C. The expression of the ZcVg3 gene was suppressed, leading to the upregulation of the ZcVg1 and ZcVg2 genes, and the expression of the ZcVgR gene was initially decreased and then increased. Silencing the ZcVg3 gene after a 1 h treatment at 45 °C resulted in a reduction of approximately 84.7% and 75.9% in the fecundity and spawning days of female adults compared to the control. The development rate of their ovaries and the ovarian diameter significantly decreased, and their lifespan was reduced by 71%. The ZcVg3 gene plays a crucial role in the reproduction of Z. cucurbitae in short-term high-temperature conditions. The results of this study provide potential targets for the development of RNAi-based techniques for the control of Z. cucurbitae.

Integrating very high resolution environmental proxies in genotype-environment association studies

Landscape genomic analyses associating genetic variation with environmental variables are powerful tools for studying molecular signatures of species' local adaptation and for detecting candidate genes under selection. The development of landscape genomics over the past decade has been spurred by improvements in resolutions of genomic and environmental datasets, allegedly increasing the power to identify putative genes underlying local adaptation in non-model organisms. Although these associations have been successfully applied to numerous species across a diverse array of taxa, the spatial scale of environmental predictor variables has been largely overlooked, potentially limiting conclusions to be reached with these methods. To address this knowledge gap, we systematically evaluated performances of genotype-environment association (GEA) models using predictor variables at multiple spatial resolutions. Specifically, we used multivariate redundancy analyses to associate whole-genome sequence data from the plant Arabis alpina L. collected across four neighboring valleys in the western Swiss Alps, with very high-resolution topographic variables derived from digital elevation models of grain sizes between 0.5 m and 16 m. These comparisons highlight the sensitivity of landscape genomic models to spatial resolution, where the optimal grain sizes were specific to variable type, terrain characteristics, and study extent. To assist in selecting variables at appropriate spatial resolutions, we demonstrate a practical approach to produce, select, and integrate multiscale variables into GEA models. After generalizing fine-grained variables to multiple spatial resolutions, a forward selection procedure is applied to retain only the most relevant variables for a particular context. Depending on the spatial resolution, the relevance for topographic variables in GEA studies calls for integrating multiple spatial scales into landscape genomic models. By carefully considering spatial resolutions, candidate genes under selection by a more realistic range of pressures can be detected for downstream analyses, with important applied implications for experimental research and conservation management of natural populations.

Anticipating change: The impact of simulated seasonal heterogeneity on heat tolerances along a latitudinal cline

An understanding of thermal limits and variation across geographic regions is central to predicting how any population may respond to global change. Latitudinal clines, in particular, have been used to demonstrate that populations can be locally adapted to their own thermal environment and, as a result, not all populations will be equally impacted by an increase in temperature. But how robust are these signals of thermal adaptation to the other ecological challenges that animals commonly face in the wild? Seasonal changes in population density, food availability, or photoperiod are common ecological challenges that could disrupt patterns of thermal tolerance along a cline if each population differentially used these signals to anticipate future temperatures and adjust their thermal tolerances accordingly. In this study, we aimed to test the robustness of a cline in thermal tolerance to simulated signals of seasonal heterogeneity. Experimental animals were derived from clones of the Australian water flea, Daphnia carinata, sampled from nine distinct populations along a latitudinal transect in Eastern Australia. We then factorially combined summer (18 h light, 6 h dark) and winter (6 h light, 18 h dark) photoperiods with high (5 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) and low (1 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) food availabilities, before performing static heat shock assays to measure thermal tolerance. We found that the thermal tolerances of the clonal populations were sensitive to both measures of seasonal change. In general, higher food availability led to an increase in thermal tolerances, with the magnitude of the increase varying by clone. In contrast, a switch in photoperiod led to rank-order changes in thermal tolerances, with heat resistance increasing for some clones, and decreasing for others. Heat resistance, however, still declined with increasing latitude, irrespective of the manipulation of seasonal signals, with clones from northern populations always showing greater thermal resistance, most likely driven by adaptation to winter thermal conditions. While photoperiod and food availability can clearly shape thermal tolerances for specific populations, they are unlikely to overwhelm overarching signals of thermal adaptation, and thus, observed clines in heat resistance will likely have remained robust to these forms of seasonal heterogeneity.

Local adaptation of Pinus leiophylla under climate and land use change models in the Avocado Belt of Michoacán

Climate change and land use change are two main drivers of global biodiversity decline, decreasing the genetic diversity that populations harbour and altering patterns of local adaptation. Landscape genomics allows measuring the effect of these anthropogenic disturbances on the adaptation of populations. However, both factors have rarely been considered simultaneously. Based on a set of 3660 SNPs from which 130 were identified as outliers by a genome-environment association analysis (LFMM), we modelled the spatial turnover of allele frequencies in 19 localities of Pinus leiophylla across the Avocado Belt in Michoacán state, Mexico. Then, we evaluated the effect of climate change and land use change scenarios, in addition to evaluating assisted gene flow strategies and connectivity metrics across the landscape to identify priority conservation areas for the species. We found that localities in the centre-east of the Avocado Belt would be more vulnerable to climate change, while localities in the western area are more threatened by land conversion to avocado orchards. Assisted gene flow actions could aid in mitigating both threats. Connectivity patterns among forest patches will also be modified by future habitat loss, with central and eastern parts of the Avocado Belt maintaining the highest connectivity. These results suggest that areas with the highest priority for conservation are in the eastern part of the Avocado Belt, including the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. This work is useful as a framework that incorporates distinct layers of information to provide a more robust representation of the response of tree populations to anthropogenic disturbances.

Ocean warming and acidification adjust inter- and intra-specific variability in the functional trait expression of polar invertebrates

Climate change is known to affect the distribution and composition of species, but concomitant alterations to functionally important aspects of behaviour and species-environment relations are poorly constrained. Here, we examine the ecosystem ramifications of changes in sediment-dwelling invertebrate bioturbation behaviour-a key process mediating nutrient cycling-associated with near-future environmental conditions (+ 1.5 °C, 550 ppm [pCO2]) for species from polar regions experiencing rapid rates of climate change. We find that responses to warming and acidification vary between species and lead to a reduction in intra-specific variability in behavioural trait expression that adjusts the magnitude and direction of nutrient concentrations. Our analyses also indicate that species behaviour is not predetermined, but can be dependent on local variations in environmental history that set population capacities for phenotypic plasticity. We provide evidence that certain, but subtle, aspects of inter- and intra-specific variation in behavioural trait expression, rather than the presence or proportional representation of species per se, is an important and under-appreciated determinant of benthic biogeochemical responses to climate change. Such changes in species behaviour may act as an early warning for impending ecological transitions associated with progressive climate forcing.

Patterns and effects of gene flow on adaptation across spatial scales: implications for management

Gene flow can have rapid effects on adaptation and is an important evolutionary tool available when undertaking biological conservation and restoration. This tool is underused partly because of the perceived risk of outbreeding depression and loss of mean fitness when different populations are crossed. In this article, we briefly review some theory and empirical findings on how genetic variation is distributed across species ranges, describe known patterns of gene flow in nature with respect to environmental gradients, and highlight the effects of gene flow on adaptation in small or stressed populations in challenging environments (e.g., at species range limits). We then present a case study involving crosses at varying spatial scales among mountain populations of a trigger plant (Stylidium armeria: Stylidiaceae) in the Australian Alps to highlight how some issues around gene flow effects can be evaluated. We found evidence of outbreeding depression in seed production at greater geographic distances. Nevertheless, we found no evidence of maladaptive gene flow effects in likelihood of germination, plant performance (size), and performance variance, suggesting that gene flow at all spatial scales produces offspring with high adaptive potential. This case study demonstrates a path to evaluating how increasing sources of gene flow in managed wild and restored populations could identify some offspring with high fitness that could bolster the ability of populations to adapt to future environmental changes. We suggest further ways in which managers and researchers can act to understand and consider adaptive gene flow in natural and conservation contexts under rapidly changing conditions.

Four years monitoring of the endangered European plethodontid salamanders

The ongoing biodiversity crisis is strongly threatening amphibians, mostly because of their peculiar physiology, their sensitivity to climate change and the spread of diseases. Effective monitoring involving assessments of pressure effects across time and estimation of population trends play a key role in mitigating amphibian decline. To improve implementation of standardized protocols and conservation efforts, we present here a dataset related to one of the amphibian genera whose onservation status is considered the most declining according to the IUCN. We report information on 66 populations of the endangered European cave salamanders, genus Speleomantes, that was collected through a standardized monitoring along a four-year period (2021-2024). Demographics data of the populations and fitness-related data of single individuals are reported. Furthermore, we include 3,836 high quality images of individuals that can allow to perform studies aiming to assess the phenotypic variability within the genus, and to perform long-term capture-mark-recaptured studies.

Flight or fight: different strategies of intertidal periwinkle Littoraria sinensis coping with high temperature across populations

Intertidal organisms usually live near their upper thermal limits, and are vulnerable to future global warming. As a vital response to thermal stress, thermoregulatory strategy in physiological and behavioral performance is essential for organisms coping with thermal stress and surviving the changing world. To investigate the relationship between the thermoregulatory strategy and habitat temperature, in the present study, we comparatively investigated the thermal responsive strategy among different geographic populations of the supralittoral snail Littoraria sinensis by determining snails' cardiac function and behavioral performance. Our results indicated that populations inhabiting high ambient temperatures had higher sublethal temperatures (i.e. Arrhenius breakpoint temperatures, ABTs, the temperature at which the heart rate shapely decreases with further heating) and lethal temperatures (i.e. Flatline temperatures, FLTs, the temperature at which heart rate ceases), and behaved less actively (e.g. shorter moving distances and shorter moving time) in the face of high and rising temperatures-a physiological fight strategy. On the other hand, populations at relatively low ambient temperatures had relatively lower physiological upper thermal limits with lower ABTs and FLTs and moved more actively in the face of high and rising temperatures-a behavioral flight strategy. These results demonstrate that the thermoregulatory strategies of the snails are closely related to their habitat temperatures and are different among populations surviving divergent thermal environments.

Adaptation to fluctuating temperatures across life stages in endotherms

Accelerating rates of climate change have intensified research on thermal adaptation. Increasing temperature fluctuations, a prominent feature of climate change, means that the persistence of many species depends on both heat and cold tolerance across the entire life cycle. In endotherms, research has focused on specific life stages, with changes in thermoregulation across life rarely being examined. Consequently, there is a need to (i) analyse how heat and cold tolerance mechanisms coevolve, and (ii) test whether antagonistic effects between heat and cold tolerance across different life stages limit thermal adaptation. Information on genes influencing heat and cold tolerance and how they are expressed through life will enable more accurate modelling of species vulnerabilities to future climatic volatility.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Interactions of moisture and light drive lichen growth and the response to climate change scenarios: experimental evidence for Lobaria pulmonaria

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is growing interest in the functional ecology of poikilohydric non-vascular photoautotrophs (NVPs), including 'cryptogamic' bryophytes and lichens. These organisms are structurally important in many ecosystems, contributing substantially to ecosystem function and services, while also being sensitive to climate change. Previous research has quantified the climate change response of poikilohydric NVPs using predictive bioclimatic models with standard climate variables including precipitation totals and temperature averages. This study aimed for an improved functional understanding of their climate change response based on their growth rate sensitivity to moisture and light.

METHODS

We conducted a 24-month experiment to monitor lichen hydration and growth. We accounted for two well-known features in the ecology of poikilohydric NVPs, and exemplified here for a structurally dominant lichen epiphyte, Lobaria pulmonaria: (1) sensitivity to multiple sources of atmospheric moisture including rain, condensed dew-formation and water vapour; and (2) growth determined by the amount of time hydrated in the light, driving photosynthesis, referred to as the Iwet hypothesis.

KEY RESULTS

First, we found that even within an oceanic high-rainfall environment, lichen hydration was better explained by vapour pressure deficit than precipitation totals. Second, growth at a monthly resolution was positively related to the amount of time spent hydrated in the light, and negatively related to the amount of time spent hydrated in the dark.

CONCLUSIONS

Using multimodel averaging to project growth models for an ensemble of future climate change scenarios, we demonstrated reduced net growth for L. pulmonaria by the late 21st century, explained by extended climate dryness and lichen desiccation for periods when there is otherwise sufficient light to drive photosynthesis. The results further emphasize a key issue of photoperiodism when constructing functionally relevant models to understand the risk of climate change, especially for poikilohydric NVPs.

Adaptive divergence, historical population dynamics, and simulation of suitable distributions for Picea Meyeri and P. Mongolica at the whole-genome level

The taxonomic classification of Picea meyeri and P. mongolica has long been controversial. To investigate the genetic relatedness, evolutionary history, and population history dynamics of these species, genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) technology was utilized to acquire whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, which were subsequently used to assess population structure, population dynamics, and adaptive differentiation. Phylogenetic and population structural analyses at the genomic level indicated that although the ancestor of P. mongolica was a hybrid of P. meyeri and P. koraiensis, P. mongolica is an independent Picea species. Additionally, P. mongolica is more closely related to P. meyeri than to P. koraiensis, which is consistent with its geographic distribution. There were up to eight instances of interspecific and intraspecific gene flow between P. meyeri and P. mongolica. The P. meyeri and P. mongolica effective population sizes generally decreased, and Maxent modeling revealed that from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present, their habitat areas decreased initially and then increased. However, under future climate scenarios, the habitat areas of both species were projected to decrease, especially under high-emission scenarios, which would place P. mongolica at risk of extinction and in urgent need of protection. Local adaptation has promoted differentiation between P. meyeri and P. mongolica. Genotype‒environment association analysis revealed 96,543 SNPs associated with environmental factors, mainly related to plant adaptations to moisture and temperature. Selective sweeps revealed that the selected genes among P. meyeri, P. mongolica and P. koraiensis are primarily associated in vascular plants with flowering, fruit development, and stress resistance. This research enhances our understanding of Picea species classification and provides a basis for future genetic improvement and species conservation efforts.

Environment-induced heritable variations are common in Arabidopsis thaliana

Parental or ancestral environments can induce heritable phenotypic changes, but whether such environment-induced heritable changes are a common phenomenon remains unexplored. Here, we subject 14 genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana to 10 different environmental treatments and observe phenotypic and genome-wide gene expression changes over four successive generations. We find that all treatments caused heritable phenotypic and gene expression changes, with a substantial proportion stably transmitted over all observed generations. Intriguingly, the susceptibility of a genotype to environmental inductions could be predicted based on the transposon abundance in the genome. Our study thus challenges the classic view that the environment only participates in the selection of heritable variation and suggests that the environment can play a significant role in generating of heritable variations.

Genomic insights into local adaptation of upland cotton in China and Pakistan

KEY MESSAGE

Different kinship and resistance to cotton leaf curl disease (CLCuD) and heat were found between upland cotton cultivars from China and Pakistan. 175 SNPs and 82 InDels loci related to yield, fiber quality, CLCuD, and heat resistance were identified. Elite alleles found in Pakistani accessions aided local adaptation to climatic condition of two countries. Adaptation of upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) beyond its center of origin is expected to be driven by tailoring of the genome and genes to enhance yield and quality in new ecological niches. Here, resequencing of 456 upland cotton accessions revealed two distinct kinships according to the associated country. Fiber quality and lint percentage were consistent across kinships, but resistance to cotton leaf curl disease (CLCuD) and heat was distinctly exhibited by accessions from Pakistan, illustrating highly local adaption. A total of 175 SNP and 82 InDel loci related to yield, fiber quality, CLCuD and heat resistance were identified; among them, only two overlapped between Pakistani and Chinese accessions underscoring the divergent domestication and improvement targets in each country. Loci associated with resistance alleles to leaf curl disease and high temperature were largely found in Pakistani accessions to counter these stresses prevalent in Pakistan. These results revealed that breeding activities led to the accumulation of unique alleles and helped upland cotton become adapted to the respective climatic conditions, which will contribute to elucidating the genetic mechanisms that underlie resilience traits and help develop climate-resilient cotton cultivars for use worldwide.

Proteomic and physiological signatures of altitude adaptation in a Myrsine coriacea population under common garden conditions

Plants exhibit phenotypic plasticity in response to environmental variations, which can lead to stable genetic and physiological adaptations if exposure to specific conditions is prolonged. Myrsine coriacea demonstrates this through its ability to thrive in diverse environments. The objective of the article is to investigate potential differences in protein accumulation and physiological responses of M. coriacea by cultivating plants from seeds collected from four populations at different altitudes in a common garden experiment. Additionally, we aim to evaluate whether these differences exhibit genetic fixation. Through integrated physiological and proteomic analyses, we identified 170 differentially accumulated proteins and observed significant physiological differences among the populations. The high-altitude population (POP1) exhibited a unique proteomic profile with significant down-regulation of proteins involved in carbon fixation and energy metabolism, suggesting a potential reduction in photosynthetic efficiency. Physiological analyses showed lower leaf nitrogen content, net CO2 assimilation rate, specific leaf area, and relative growth rate in stem height for POP1, alongside higher leaf carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) and leaf carbon (C) content. These findings provide insight into the complex interplay between proteomic and physiological adaptations in M. coriacea and underscore the importance of local adaptations. SIGNIFICANCE: We investigate the adaptive responses of M. coriacea, a shrub with a broad phenotypic range, by cultivating plants from seeds collected at four different altitudes in a common garden experiment. These findings provide insight into the complex interplay between proteomic and physiological adaptations in M. coriacea and underscore the importance of local adaptations in the face of climate change. This study contributes to advancing our understanding of the influence of altitude-specific selection pressures on the molecular biology and physiology of plants in natural populations. Our findings provide valuable insights that enhance our ability to predict and comprehend how plants respond to climate change.

'Out of Africa' origin of the pantropical staghorn fern genus Platycerium (Polypodiaceae) supported by plastid phylogenomics and biogeographical analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The staghorn fern genus Platycerium is one of the most commonly grown ornamental ferns, and it evolved to occupy a typical pantropical intercontinental disjunction. However, species-level relationships in the genus have not been well resolved, and the spatiotemporal evolutionary history of the genus also needs to be explored.

METHODS

Plastomes of all the 18 Platycerium species were newly sequenced. Using plastome data, we reconstructed the phylogenetic relationships among Polypodiaceae members with a focus on Platycerium species, and further conducted molecular dating and biogeographical analyses of the genus.

KEY RESULTS

The present analyses yielded a robustly supported phylogenetic hypothesis of Platycerium. Molecular dating results showed that Platycerium split from its sister genus Hovenkampia ~35.2 million years ago (Ma) near the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and began to diverge ~26.3 Ma during the late Oligocene, while multiple speciation events within Platycerium occurred during the middle to late Miocene. Biogeographical analysis suggested that Platycerium originated in tropical Africa and then dispersed eastward to southeast Asia-Australasia and westward to neotropical areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses using a plastid phylogenomic approach improved our understanding of the species-level relationships within Platycerium. The global climate changes of both the Late Oligocene Warming and the cooling following the mid-Miocene Climate Optimum may have promoted the speciation of Platycerium, and transoceanic long-distance dispersal is the most plausible explanation for the pantropical distribution of the genus today. Our study investigating the biogeographical history of Platycerium provides a case study not only for the formation of the pantropical intercontinental disjunction of this fern genus but also the 'out of Africa' origin of plant lineages.

Predicting resilience of migratory birds to environmental change

The pace and scale of environmental change represent major challenges to many organisms. Animals that move long distances, such as migratory birds, are especially vulnerable to change since they need chains of intact habitat along their migratory routes. Estimating the resilience of such species to environmental changes assists in targeting conservation efforts. We developed a migration modeling framework to predict past (1960s), present (2010s), and future (2060s) optimal migration strategies across five shorebird species (Scolopacidae) within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, which has seen major habitat deterioration and loss over the last century, and compared these predictions to empirical tracks from the present. Our model captured the migration strategies of the five species and identified the changes in migrations needed to respond to habitat deterioration and climate change. Notably, the larger species, with single or few major stopover sites, need to establish new migration routes and strategies, while smaller species can buffer habitat loss by redistributing their stopover areas to novel or less-used sites. Comparing model predictions with empirical tracks also indicates that larger species with the stronger need for adaptations continue to migrate closer to the optimal routes of the past, before habitat deterioration accelerated. Our study not only quantifies the vulnerability of species in the face of global change but also explicitly reveals the extent of adaptations required to sustain their migrations. This modeling framework provides a tool for conservation planning that can accommodate the future needs of migratory species.

Temperature-driven homogenization of an ant community over 60 years in a montane ecosystem

Identifying the mechanisms underlying the changes in the distribution of species is critical to accurately predict how species have responded and will respond to climate change. Here, we take advantage of a late-1950s study on ant assemblages in a canyon near Boulder, Colorado, USA, to understand how and why species distributions have changed over a 60-year period. Community composition changed over 60 years with increasing compositional similarity among ant assemblages. Community composition differed significantly between the periods, with aspect and tree cover influencing composition. Species that foraged in broader temperature ranges became more widespread over the 60-year period. Our work highlights that shifts in community composition and biotic homogenization can occur even in undisturbed areas without strong habitat degradation. We also show the power of pairing historical and contemporary data and encourage more mechanistic studies to predict species changes under climate change.

Environmental impacts on intraspecific variation in Ambrosia artemisiifolia genome size in Slovakia, Central Europe

The quantity of DNA in angiosperms exhibits variation attributed to many external influences, such as environmental factors, geographical features, or stress factors, which exert constant selection pressure on organisms. Since invasive species possess adaptive capabilities to acclimate to novel environmental conditions, ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) was chosen as a subject for investigating their influence on genome size variation. Slovakia has diverse climatic conditions, suitable for testing the hypothesis that air temperature and precipitation, the main limiting factors of ragweed occurrence, would also have an impact on its genome size. Our results using flow cytometry confirmed this hypothesis and also found a significant association with geographical features such as latitude, altitude, and longitude. We can conclude that plants growing in colder environments farther from oceanic influences exhibit smaller DNA amounts, while optimal growth conditions result in a greater variability in genome size, reflecting the diminished effect of selection pressure.

Acclimation capacity to global warming of amphibians and freshwater fishes: Drivers, patterns, and data limitations

Amphibians and fishes play a central role in shaping the structure and function of freshwater environments. These organisms have a limited capacity to disperse across different habitats and the thermal buffer offered by freshwater systems is small. Understanding determinants and patterns of their physiological sensitivity across life history is, therefore, imperative to predicting the impacts of climate change in freshwater systems. Based on a systematic literature review including 345 experiments with 998 estimates on 96 amphibian (Anura/Caudata) and 93 freshwater fish species (Teleostei), we conducted a quantitative synthesis to explore phylogenetic, ontogenetic, and biogeographic (thermal adaptation) patterns in upper thermal tolerance (CTmax) and thermal acclimation capacity (acclimation response ratio, ARR) as well as the influence of the methodology used to assess these thermal traits using a conditional inference tree analysis. We found globally consistent patterns in CTmax and ARR, with phylogeny (taxa/order), experimental methodology, climatic origin, and life stage as significant determinants of thermal traits. The analysis demonstrated that CTmax does not primarily depend on the climatic origin but on experimental acclimation temperature and duration, and life stage. Higher acclimation temperatures and longer acclimation times led to higher CTmax values, whereby Anuran larvae revealed a higher CTmax than older life stages. The ARR of freshwater fishes was more than twice that of amphibians. Differences in ARR between life stages were not significant. In addition to phylogenetic differences, we found that ARR also depended on acclimation duration, ramping rate, and adaptation to local temperature variability. However, the amount of data on early life stages is too small, methodologically inconsistent, and phylogenetically unbalanced to identify potential life cycle bottlenecks in thermal traits. We, therefore, propose methods to improve the robustness and comparability of CTmax/ARR data across species and life stages, which is crucial for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity under climate change.

Climate change-associated declines in water clarity impair feeding by common loons

Climate change has myriad impacts on ecosystems, but the mechanisms by which it affects individual species can be difficult to pinpoint. One strategy to discover such mechanisms is to identify a specific ecological factor related to survival or reproduction and determine how that factor is affected by climate. Here we used Landsat imagery to calculate water clarity for 127 lakes in northern Wisconsin from 1995 to 2021 and thus investigate the effect of clarity on the body condition of an aquatic visual predator, the common loon (Gavia immer). In addition, we examined rainfall and temperature as potential predictors of water clarity. Body mass tracked July water clarity strongly in loon chicks, which grow chiefly in that month, but weakly in adult males and females. Long-term mean water clarity was negatively related to chick mass but positively related to adult male mass, suggesting that loons foraging in generally clear lakes enjoy good foraging conditions in the long run but might be sensitive to perturbations in clarity during chick-rearing. Finally, chick mass was positively related to the density of docks, perhaps because angling removes large fishes and thus boosts the abundance of the small fishes on which chicks depend. Water clarity itself declined strongly from 1995 to 2021, was negatively related to July rainfall, and was positively related to July air temperature. Our findings identified both long-term and short-term water clarity as strong predictors of loon foraging efficiency, and suggest that climate change, through water clarity, impacts freshwater ecosystems profoundly. Moreover, our results identified the recent decrease in water clarity as a likely cause of population decline in common loons.

Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia

Climate change majorly impacts biodiversity in diverse regions across the world, including South Asia, a megadiverse area with heterogeneous climatic and vegetation regions. However, climate impacts on bats in this region are not well-studied, and it is unclear whether climate effects will follow patterns predicted in other regions. We address this by assessing projected near-future changes in climatically suitable areas for 110 bat species from South Asia. We used ensemble ecological niche modelling with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and maximum entropy) to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions (1970-2000). We then extrapolated near future (2041-2060) suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2: middle-of-the-road and SSP5: fossil-fuelled development). Projected future changes in suitable areas varied across species, with most species predicted to retain most of the current area or lose small amounts. When shifts occurred due to projected climate change, new areas were generally northward of current suitable areas. Suitability hotspots, defined as regions suitable for >30% of species, were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented. Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.

Individual variation in life-history timing: synchronous presence, asynchronous events and phenological compensation in a wild mammal

Many animals and plants have species-typical annual cycles, but individuals vary in their timing of life-history events. Individual variation in fur replacement (moult) timing is poorly understood in mammals due to the challenge of repeated observations and longitudinal sampling. We examined factors that influence variation in moult duration and timing among elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris). We quantified the onset and progression of fur loss in 1178 individuals. We found that an exceptionally rapid visible moult (7 days, the shortest of any mammals or birds), and a wide range of moult start dates (spanning 6-10× the event duration) facilitated high asynchrony across individuals (only 20% of individuals in the population moulting at the same time). Some of the variation was due to reproductive state, as reproductively mature females that skipped a breeding season moulted a week earlier than reproductive females. Moreover, individual variation in timing and duration within age-sex categories far outweighed (76-80%) variation among age-sex categories. Individuals arriving at the end of the moult season spent 50% less time on the beach, which allowed them to catch up in their annual cycles and reduce population-level variance during breeding. These findings underscore the importance of individual variation in annual cycles.

Transgenerational epigenetic inheritance increases trait variation but is not adaptive

Understanding processes that can produce adaptive phenotypic shifts in response to rapid environmental change is critical to reducing biodiversity loss. The ubiquity of environmentally induced epigenetic marks has led to speculation that epigenetic inheritance could potentially enhance population persistence in response to environmental change. Yet, the magnitude and fitness consequences of epigenetic marks carried beyond maternal inheritance are largely unknown. Here, we tested how transgenerational epigenetic inheritance (TEI) shapes the phenotypic response of Daphnia clones to the environmental stressor Microcystis. We split individuals from each of eight genotypes into exposure and control treatments (F0 generation) and tracked the fitness of their descendants to the F3 generation. We found transgenerational epigenetic exposure to Microcystis led to reduced rates of survival and individual growth and no consistent effect on offspring production. Increase in trait variance in the F3 relative to F0 generations suggests potential for heritable bet hedging driven by TEI, which could impact population dynamics. Our findings are counter to the working hypothesis that TEI is a generally adaptive mechanism likely to prevent extinction for populations inhabiting rapidly changing environments.

Thermal tolerance of mosquito eggs is associated with urban adaptation and human interactions

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect mosquito distributions and their ability to serve as vectors for disease, specifically with the anticipated increase in heat waves. The rising temperature and frequent heat waves can accelerate mosquito life cycles, facilitating higher disease transmission. Conversely, higher temperatures could increase mosquito mortality as a negative consequence. Warmer temperatures are associated with increased human density, suggesting a need for anthropophilic mosquitoes to adapt to be more hardy to heat stress. Mosquito eggs provide an opportunity to study the biological impact of climate warming as this stage is stationary and must tolerate temperatures at the site of female oviposition. As such, egg thermotolerance is critical for survival in a specific habitat. In nature, Aedes mosquitoes exhibit different behavioral phenotypes, where specific populations prefer depositing eggs in tree holes and prefer feeding non-human vertebrates. In contrast, others, particularly human-biting specialists, favor laying eggs in artificial containers near human dwellings. This study examined the thermotolerance of eggs, along with adult stages, for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus lineages associated with known ancestry and shifts in their relationship with humans. Mosquitoes collected from areas with higher human population density, displaying increased human preference, and having a human-associated ancestry profile have increased egg viability following high-temperature stress. Unlike eggs, thermal tolerance among adults showed no significant correlation based on the area of collection or human-associated ancestry. This study highlights that the egg stage is likely critical to mosquito survival when associated with humans and needs to be accounted when predicting future mosquito distribution.

Clinging to the top: natal dispersal tracks climate gradient in a trailing-edge population of a migratory songbird

PURPOSE

Trailing-edge populations at the low-latitude, receding edge of a shifting range face high extinction risk from climate change unless they are able to track optimal environmental conditions through dispersal.

METHODS

We fit dispersal models to the locations of 3165 individually-marked black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) in the southern Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina, USA from 2002 to 2023. Black-throated blue warbler breeding abundance in this population has remained relatively stable at colder and wetter areas at higher elevations but has declined at warmer and drier areas at lower elevations.

RESULTS

Median dispersal distance of young warblers was 917 m (range 23-3200 m), and dispersal tended to be directed away from warm and dry locations. In contrast, adults exhibited strong site fidelity between breeding seasons and rarely dispersed more than 100 m (range 10-1300 m). Consequently, adult dispersal kernels were much more compact and symmetric than natal dispersal kernels, suggesting adult dispersal is unlikely a driving force of declines in this population.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that directional natal dispersal may mitigate fitness costs for trailing-edge populations by allowing individuals to track changing climate and avoid warming conditions at warm-edge range boundaries.

Hotter deserts and the impending challenges for the Spiny-tailed Lizard in India

Ectotherms are particularly vulnerable to climate change, especially those living in extreme areas, such as deserts, where species are already thermally constrained. Using the vulnerable herbivorous lizard Saara hardwickii as a model system, we used a multi-pronged approach to understand the thermal ecology of a desert agamid and potential impacts of rising temperatures. Our data included field-based measures of operative temperatures, body temperatures, and activity, as well as lab-based measures of thermal limits, preferences, and sprint speed. As expected, the temperature dependence of locomotor performance and foraging activity were different, and in the worst-case global warming scenario (SSP5-8.5), potential sprint speed may decrease by up to 14.5% and foraging activity may decrease by up to 43.5% by 2099. Burrows are essential thermal refuges, and global warming projections suggest that S. hardwickii may be restricted to burrows for up to 9 h per day by 2099, which would greatly limit critical activities, like foraging and seeking mating opportunities. Overall, we show that key information on thermal ecology, including temperature-sensitive behaviours in the wild, is necessary to understand the multiple ways in which increasing temperatures may influence ectothermic vertebrates, especially for species like S. hardwickii that are already vulnerable to environmental change.

Temporal genetic variation mediated by climate change-induced salinity decline, a study on Artemia (Crustacea: Anostraca) from Kyêbxang Co, a high altitude salt lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is one of the areas the richest in salt lakes and Artemia sites. As a result of climate warming and wetting, the areas of salt lakes on the plateau have been increasing, and the salinities have decreased considerably since 1990s. However, the impact of salinity change on the genetic diversity of Artemia is still unknown. Kyêbxang Co is the highest (4620 m above sea level) salt lake currently with commercial harvesting of Artemia resting eggs in the world, and harbors the largest Artemia population on the plateau. Its salinity had dropped from ∼67 ppt in 1998 to ∼39 ppt in 2019. Using 13 microsatellite markers and the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase submit I (COI) gene, we analyzed the temporal changes of genetic diversity, effective population size and genetic structure of this Artemia population based on samples collected in 1998, 2007 and 2019. Our results revealed a steady decline of genetic diversity and significant genetic differentiation among the sampling years, which may be a consequence of genetic drift and the selection of decreased salinity. A decline of effective population size was also detected, which may be relative to the fluctuation in census population size, skewed sex ratio, and selection of the declined salinity. In 2007 and 2019, the Artemia population showed an excess of heterozygosity and significant deviation from Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (p < 0.001), which may be associated with the heterozygote advantage under low salinity. To comprehensively understand the impact of climate warming and wetting on Artemia populations on the plateau, further investigation with broad and intensive sampling are needed.

Wolbachia infection negatively impacts Drosophila simulans heat tolerance in a strain- and trait-specific manner

The susceptibility of insects to rising temperatures has largely been measured by their ability to survive thermal extremes. However, the capacity for maternally inherited endosymbionts to influence insect heat tolerance has been overlooked. Further, while some studies have addressed the impact of heat on traits like fertility, which can decline at temperatures below lethal thermal limits, none have considered the impact of endosymbionts. Here, we assess the impact of three Wolbachia strains (wRi, wAu and wNo) on the survival and fertility of Drosophila simulans exposed to heat stress during development or as adults. The effect of Wolbachia infection on heat tolerance was generally small and trait/strain specific. Only the wNo infection significantly reduced the survival of adult males after a heat shock. When exposed to fluctuating heat stress during development, the wRi and wAu strains reduced egg-to-adult survival but only the wNo infection reduced male fertility. Wolbachia densities of all three strains decreased under developmental heat stress, but reductions occurred at temperatures above those that reduced host fertility. These findings emphasize the necessity to account for endosymbionts and their effect on both survival and fertility when investigating insect responses to heat stress.

Planning and implementing genetic rescue of an endangered freshwater fish population in a regulated river, where low flow reduces breeding opportunities and may trigger inbreeding depression

Augmenting depleted genetic diversity can improve the fitness and evolutionary potential of wildlife populations, but developing effective management approaches requires genetically monitored test cases. One such case is the small, isolated and inbred Cotter River population of an endangered Australian freshwater fish, the Macquarie perch Macquaria australasica, which over 3 years (2017-2019) received 71 translocated migrants from a closely related, genetically more diverse population. We used genetic monitoring to test whether immigrants bred, interbred with local fish and augmented population genetic diversity. We also investigated whether levels of river flow affected recruitment, inbreeding depression and juvenile dispersal. Fish length was used to estimate the age, birth year cohort and growth of 524 individuals born between 2016 and 2020 under variable flow conditions. DArT genome-wide genotypes were used to assess individual ancestry, heterozygosity, short-term effective population size and identify parent-offspring and full-sibling families. Of 442 individuals born after translocations commenced, only two (0.45%) were of mixed ancestry; these were half-sibs with one translocated parent in common. Numbers of breeders and genetic diversity for five birth year cohorts of the Cotter River fish were low, especially in low-flow years. Additionally, individuals born in the year of lowest flow evidently suffered from inbreeding depression for juvenile growth. The year of highest flow was associated with the largest number of breeders, lowest inbreeding in the offspring and greatest juvenile dispersal distances. Genetic diversity decreased in the upstream direction, flagging restricted access of breeders to the most upstream breeding sites, exacerbated by low river flow. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of translocations could be increased by focussing on upstream sites and moving more individuals per year; using riverine sources should be considered. Our results indicate that river flow sufficient to facilitate fish movement through the system would increase the number of breeders, promote individuals' growth, reduce inbreeding depression and promote genetic rescue.

Fitness surfaces and local thermal adaptation in Drosophila along a latitudinal gradient

Local adaptation is commonly cited to explain species distribution, but how fitness varies along continuous geographical gradients is not well understood. Here, we combine thermal biology and life-history theory to demonstrate that Drosophila populations along a 2500 km latitudinal cline are adapted to local conditions. We measured how heat tolerance and viability rate across eight populations varied with temperature in the laboratory and then simulated their expected cumulative Darwinian fitness employing high-resolution temperature data from their eight collection sites. Simulations indicate a trade-off between annual survival and cumulative viability, as both mortality and the recruitment of new flies are predicted to increase in warmer regions. Importantly, populations are locally adapted and exhibit the optimal combination of both traits to maximize fitness where they live. In conclusion, our method is able to reconstruct fitness surfaces employing empirical life-history estimates and reconstructs peaks representing locally adapted populations, allowing us to study geographic adaptation in silico.

Projected decline in European bumblebee populations in the twenty-first century

Habitat degradation and climate change are globally acting as pivotal drivers of wildlife collapse, with mounting evidence that this erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the following decades1-3. Here, we quantify the past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees, a threatened group of pollinators ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere4-8. We demonstrate coherent declines of bumblebee populations since 1900 over most of Europe and identify future large-scale range contractions and species extirpations under all future climate and land use change scenarios. Around 38-76% of studied European bumblebee species currently classified as 'Least Concern' are projected to undergo losses of at least 30% of ecologically suitable territory by 2061-2080 compared to 2000-2014. All scenarios highlight that parts of Scandinavia will become potential refugia for European bumblebees; it is however uncertain whether these areas will remain clear of additional anthropogenic stressors not accounted for in present models. Our results underline the critical role of global change mitigation policies as effective levers to protect bumblebees from manmade transformation of the biosphere.