Phylodynamics of H1N1/2009 influenza reveals the transition from host adaptation to immune-driven selection

Bayesian phylogeographic inference of wheat yellow mosaic virus in China and Japan suggests that the virus migration history coincided with historical events

Wheat yellow mosaic virus (WYMV) is one of the most serious viral pathogens causing reductions in wheat yield in East Asia. We investigated the phylodynamics of WYMV by analysing the CP, VPg and P1 genes to understand the origin and dispersal of the virus. A Bayesian phylogenetic analysis revealed that the most recent common WYMV ancestor occurred in approximately 1742 (95% credibility interval, 1439-1916) CE (Common Era), and the evolutionary rates of the VPg, CP and P1 genes were 6.669 × 10-4 (95% credibility interval: 4.575 × 10-4-8.927 × 10-4), 2.468 × 10-4 (95% credibility interval: 1.667 × 10-4-3.338 × 10-4) and 5.765 × 10-5 (95% credibility interval: 3.285 × 10-6-1.252 × 10-4), respectively. Our phylogeographic analysis indicated that the WYMV population may have originated in Henan Province, China, first spreading to Japan in the mid-19th century and stopping after the Japanese surrender in World War II. The second wave spread to Japan from Shandong Province, China, in approximately 1977, a few years after the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. Before the founding of the People's Republic of China, Henan Province was the emigration centre of WYMV in East Asia, and after the late 20th century, Jiangsu and Shandong Provinces were also the virus emigration centres in East Asia. In addition, there were two migration pathways from Japan to Jiangsu and Shandong Provinces, China, in approximately 1918 and approximately 1999 respectively. Our results suggest that the wide spread of WYMV in East Asia is strongly related to human factors.

One hundred years of influenza A evolution

Leveraging the simplicity of nucleotide mismatch distributions, we provide an intuitive window into the evolution of the human influenza A 'nonstructural' (NS) gene segment. In an analysis suggested by the eminent Danish biologist Freddy B. Christiansen, we illustrate the existence of a continuous genetic "backbone" of influenza A NS sequences, steadily increasing in nucleotide distance to the 1918 root over more than a century. The 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic represents a clear departure from this enduring genetic backbone. Utilizing nucleotide distance maps and phylogenetic analyses, we illustrate remaining uncertainties regarding the origin of the 2009 pandemic, highlighting the complexity of influenza evolution. The NS segment is interesting precisely because it experiences less pervasive positive selection, and departs less strongly from neutral evolution than e.g. the HA antigen. Consequently, sudden deviations from neutral diversification can indicate changes in other genes via the hitchhiking effect. Our approach employs two measures based on nucleotide mismatch counts to analyze the evolutionary dynamics of the NS gene segment. The rooted Hamming map of distances between a reference sequence and all other sequences over time, and the unrooted temporal Hamming distribution which captures the distribution of genotypic distances between simultaneously circulating viruses, thereby revealing patterns of nucleotide diversity and epi-evolutionary dynamics.

Phylogeography and reassortment patterns of human influenza A viruses in sub-Saharan Africa

The role of sub-Saharan Africa in the global spread of influenza viruses remains unclear due to insufficient spatiotemporal sequence data. Here, we analyzed 222 codon-complete sequences of influenza A viruses (IAVs) sampled between 2011 and 2013 from five countries across sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya, Zambia, Mali, Gambia, and South Africa); these genomes were compared with 1209 contemporaneous global genomes using phylogeographical approaches. The spread of influenza in sub-Saharan Africa was characterized by (i) multiple introductions of IAVs into the region over consecutive influenza seasons, with viral importations originating from multiple global geographical regions, some of which persisted in circulation as intra-subtype reassortants for multiple seasons, (ii) virus transfer between sub-Saharan African countries, and (iii) virus export from sub-Saharan Africa to other geographical regions. Despite sparse data from influenza surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa, our findings support the notion that influenza viruses persist as temporally structured migrating metapopulations in which new virus strains can emerge in any geographical region, including in sub-Saharan Africa; these lineages may have been capable of dissemination to other continents through a globally migrating virus population. Further knowledge of the viral lineages that circulate within understudied sub-Saharan Africa regions is required to inform vaccination strategies in those regions.

Exploring Potential Intermediates in the Cross-Species Transmission of Influenza A Virus to Humans

The influenza A virus (IAV) has been a major cause of several pandemics, underscoring the importance of elucidating its transmission dynamics. This review investigates potential intermediate hosts in the cross-species transmission of IAV to humans, focusing on the factors that facilitate zoonotic events. We evaluate the roles of various animal hosts, including pigs, galliformes, companion animals, minks, marine mammals, and other animals, in the spread of IAV to humans.

Molecular characterization and evolutionary dynamics of influenza A(H1N1) strains isolated from 2015 to 2017 in North India

Background and Objectives

The influenza A(H1N1) virus is known for large outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics worldwide owing to its genome plasticity which evolves constantly. In the year 2015 and then in 2017, India witnessed an upsurge in cases.

Materials and Methods

The study was carried out in this period (2015-2017) with samples from 5 states across north India. The hemagglutinin 1 (HA1) and non-structural 1 (NS1) gene segments of the viral genome were characterised by phylogenetic analysis, selection pressure analysis, prediction of potential glycosylation sites and phylodynamic analysis of the study strains.

Results

The study strains belonged to genogroup 6B. A total of 12 mutations were observed, half of which were located on the key receptor binding region of the HA1 protein. Established virulence markers D222G, S183P were observed in 2017 samples. Acquisition of an extra glycosylation site was observed in few strains from 2017 and 2016. Selection pressure analysis found the average dN/dS (v) ratio of 0.2106 and few codon sites in particular showed significant evidence of being under negative selection.

Conclusion

The genogroup 6B continues to be the dominant circulating strain in Indian subcontinent region however the presence of pathogenic mutations in the 2017 strains from north India underlines the importance of continued molecular surveillance.

Predictive evolutionary modelling for influenza virus by site-based dynamics of mutations

Influenza virus continuously evolves to escape human adaptive immunity and generates seasonal epidemics. Therefore, influenza vaccine strains need to be updated annually for the upcoming flu season to ensure vaccine effectiveness. We develop a computational approach, beth-1, to forecast virus evolution and select representative virus for influenza vaccine. The method involves modelling site-wise mutation fitness. Informed by virus genome and population sero-positivity, we calibrate transition time of mutations and project the fitness landscape to future time, based on which beth-1 selects the optimal vaccine strain. In season-to-season prediction in historical data for the influenza A pH1N1 and H3N2 viruses, beth-1 demonstrates superior genetic matching compared to existing approaches. In prospective validations, the model shows superior or non-inferior genetic matching and neutralization against circulating virus in mice immunization experiments compared to the current vaccine. The method offers a promising and ready-to-use tool to facilitate vaccine strain selection for the influenza virus through capturing heterogeneous evolutionary dynamics over genome space-time and linking molecular variants to population immune response.

Molecular evolution and phylogeographic analysis of wheat dwarf virus

Wheat dwarf virus (WDV) has caused considerable economic loss in the global production of grain crops. Knowledge of the evolutionary biology and population history of the pathogen remain poorly understood. We performed molecular evolution and worldwide phylodynamic analyses of the virus based on the genes in the protein-coding region of the entire viral genome. Our results showed that host-driven and geography-driven adaptation are major factors that affects the evolution of WDV. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis estimates that the average WDV substitution rate was 4.240 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year (95% credibility interval, 2.828 × 10-4-5.723 × 10-4), and the evolutionary rates of genes encoding proteins with virion-sense transcripts and genes encoding proteins with complementary-sense transcripts were different. The positively selected sites were detected in only two genes encoding proteins with complementary-sense, and WDV-barley are subject to stronger purifying selection than WDV-wheat. The time since the most recent common WDV ancestor was 1746 (95% credibility interval, 1517-1893) CE. Further analyses identified that the WDV-barley population and WDV-wheat population experienced dramatic expansion-decline episodes, and the expansion time of the WDV-barley population was earlier than that of the WDV-wheat population. Our phylogeographic analysis showed that the WDV population originating in Iran was subsequently introduced to Europe, and then spread from Eastern Europe to China.

An atlas of continuous adaptive evolution in endemic human viruses

Through antigenic evolution, viruses such as seasonal influenza evade recognition by neutralizing antibodies. This means that a person with antibodies well tuned to an initial infection will not be protected against the same virus years later and that vaccine-mediated protection will decay. To expand our understanding of which endemic human viruses evolve in this fashion, we assess adaptive evolution across the genome of 28 endemic viruses spanning a wide range of viral families and transmission modes. Surface proteins consistently show the highest rates of adaptation, and ten viruses in this panel are estimated to undergo antigenic evolution to selectively fix mutations that enable the escape of prior immunity. Thus, antibody evasion is not an uncommon evolutionary strategy among human viruses, and monitoring this evolution will inform future vaccine efforts. Additionally, by comparing overall amino acid substitution rates, we show that SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating protein-coding changes at substantially faster rates than endemic viruses.

Understanding the divergent evolution and epidemiology of H3N8 influenza viruses in dogs and horses

Cross-species virus transmission events can lead to dire public health emergencies in the form of epidemics and pandemics. One example in animals is the emergence of the H3N8 equine influenza virus (EIV), first isolated in 1963 in Miami, FL, USA, after emerging among horses in South America. In the early 21st century, the American lineage of EIV diverged into two 'Florida' clades that persist today, while an EIV transferred to dogs around 1999 and gave rise to the H3N8 canine influenza virus (CIV), first reported in 2004. Here, we compare CIV in dogs and EIV in horses to reveal their host-specific evolution, to determine the sources and connections between significant outbreaks, and to gain insight into the factors controlling their different evolutionary fates. H3N8 CIV only circulated in North America, was geographically restricted after the first few years, and went extinct in 2016. Of the two EIV Florida clades, clade 1 circulates widely and shows frequent transfers between the USA and South America, Europe and elsewhere, while clade 2 was globally distributed early after it emerged, but since about 2018 has only been detected in Central Asia. Any potential zoonotic threat of these viruses to humans can only be determined with an understanding of its natural history and evolution. Our comparative analysis of these three viral lineages reveals distinct patterns and rates of sequence variation yet with similar overall evolution between clades, suggesting epidemiological intervention strategies for possible eradication of H3N8 EIV.

Human-to-swine introductions and onward transmission of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza viruses in Brazil

Introduction

Once established in the human population, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus (H1N1pdm09) was repeatedly introduced into swine populations globally with subsequent onward transmission among pigs.

Methods

To identify and characterize human-to-swine H1N1pdm09 introductions in Brazil, we conducted a large-scale phylogenetic analysis of 4,141 H1pdm09 hemagglutinin (HA) and 3,227 N1pdm09 neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences isolated globally from humans and swine between 2009 and 2022.

Results

Phylodynamic analysis revealed that during the period between 2009 and 2011, there was a rapid transmission of the H1N1pdm09 virus from humans to swine in Brazil. Multiple introductions of the virus were observed, but most of them resulted in self-limited infections in swine, with limited onward transmission. Only a few sustained transmission clusters were identified during this period. After 2012, there was a reduction in the number of human-to-swine H1N1pdm09 transmissions in Brazil.

Discussion

The virus underwent continuous antigenic drift, and a balance was established between swine-to-swine transmission and extinction, with minimal sustained onward transmission from humans to swine. These results emphasize the dynamic interplay between human-to-swine transmission, antigenic drift, and the establishment of swine-to-swine transmission in shaping the evolution and persistence of H1N1pdm09 in swine populations.

Global molecular evolution and phylogeographic analysis of barley yellow dwarf virus based on the cp and mp genes

Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) has caused considerable losses in the global production of grain crops such as wheat, barley and maize. We investigated the phylodynamics of the virus by analysing 379 and 485 nucleotide sequences of the genes encoding the coat protein and movement protein, respectively. The maximum clade credibility tree indicated that BYDV-GAV and BYDV-MAV, BYDV-PAV and BYDV-PAS share the same evolutionary lineage, respectively. The diversification of BYDV arises from its adaptability to vector insects and geography. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses showed that the mean substitution rates of the coat and movement proteins of BYDV ranged from 8.327 × 10^- 4 (4.700 × 10^- 4-1.228 × 10^- 3) and 8.671 × 10^- 4 (6.143 × 10^- 4-1.130 × 10^- 3) substitutions/site/year, respectively. The time since the most recent common BYDV ancestor was 1434 (1040-1766) CE (Common Era). The Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) showed that the BYDV population experienced dramatic expansions approximately 8 years into the 21st century, followed by a dramatic decline in less than 15 years. Our phylogeographic analysis showed that the BYDV population originating in the United States was subsequently introduced to Europe, South America, Australia and Asia. The migration pathways of BYDV suggest that the global spread of BYDV is associated with human activities.

Spatial genetic structure of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza established as a result of interaction with human populations in mainland China

Identifying the spatial patterns of genetic structure of influenza A viruses is a key factor for understanding their spread and evolutionary dynamics. In this study, we used phylogenetic and Bayesian clustering analyses of genetic sequences of the A/H1N1pdm09 virus with district-level locations in mainland China to investigate the spatial genetic structure of the A/H1N1pdm09 virus across human population landscapes. Positive correlation between geographic and genetic distances indicates high degrees of genetic similarity among viruses within small geographic regions but broad-scale genetic differentiation, implying that local viral circulation was a more important driver in the formation of the spatial genetic structure of the A/H1N1pdm09 virus than even, countrywide viral mixing and gene flow. Geographic heterogeneity in the distribution of genetic subpopulations of A/H1N1pdm09 virus in mainland China indicates both local to local transmission as well as broad-range viral migration. This combination of both local and global structure suggests that both small-scale and large-scale population circulation in China is responsible for viral genetic structure. Our study provides implications for understanding the evolution and spread of A/H1N1pdm09 virus across the population landscape of mainland China, which can inform disease control strategies for future pandemics.

Immunological considerations for laboratory staff and COVID-19 biosafety

The vulnerability of healthcare and laboratory to potential infection by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus has thus far been analyzed through the lens of the acute phase of the pandemic, including remote-based work, as well as emergency settings that are different from routine healthcare operations. However, as lockdowns ease and activities return to an identifiable pre-pandemic routine, the safety considerations also require to shift accordingly. As laboratory workers are likely to continue being exposed to unidentified SARS-CoV-2 positive samples through routine blood collection and processing operations, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) might have to be re-considered as an occupational disease within this context. Additionally, as per many such occupational diseases, a surveillance system is implemented for the medium- and long-term. This manuscript presents the views on the possible surveillance scenarios for laboratory staff, viewed from an immunological and biosafety perspective.

Evolution of Indian Influenza A (H1N1) Hemagglutinin Strains: A Comparative Analysis of the Pandemic Californian HA Strain

The need for a vaccine/inhibitor design has become inevitable concerning the emerging epidemic and pandemic viral infections, and the recent outbreak of the influenza A (H1N1) virus is one such example. From 2009 to 2018, India faced severe fatalities due to the outbreak of the influenza A (H1N1) virus. In this study, the potential features of reported Indian H1N1 strains are analyzed in comparison with their evolutionarily closest pandemic strain, A/California/04/2009. The focus is laid on one of its surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA), which imparts a significant role in attacking the host cell surface and its entry. The extensive analysis performed, in comparison with the A/California/04/2009 strain, revealed significant point mutations in all Indian strains reported from 2009 to 2018. Due to these mutations, all Indian strains disclosed altered features at the sequence and structural levels, which are further presumed to be associated with their functional diversity as well. The mutations observed with the 2018 HA sequence such as S91R, S181T, S200P, I312V, K319T, I419M, and E523D might improve the fitness of the virus in a new host and environment. The higher fitness and decreased sequence similarity of mutated strains may compromise therapeutic efficacy. In particular, the mutations observed commonly, such as serine-to-threonine, alanine-to-threonine, and lysine-to-glutamine at various regions, alter the physico-chemical features of receptor-binding domains, N-glycosylation, and epitope-binding sites when compared with the reference strain. Such mutations render diversity among all Indian strains, and the structural and functional characterization of these strains becomes inevitable. In this study, we observed that mutational drift results in the alteration of the receptor-binding domain, the generation of new variant N-glycosylation along with novel epitope-binding sites, and modifications at the structural level. Eventually, the pressing need to develop potentially distinct next-generation therapeutic inhibitors against the HA strains of the Indian influenza A (H1N1) virus is also highlighted here.

Comparing the transmission potential from sequence and surveillance data of 2009 North American influenza pandemic waves

Technological advancements in phylodynamic modeling coupled with the accessibility of real-time pathogen genetic data are increasingly important for understanding the infectious disease transmission dynamics. In this study, we compare the transmission potentials of North American influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 derived from sequence data to that derived from surveillance data. The impact of the choice of tree-priors, informative epidemiological priors, and evolutionary parameters on the transmission potential estimation is evaluated. North American Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequences are analyzed using the coalescent and birth-death tree prior models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R ₀ ). Epidemiological priors gathered from published literature are used to simulate the birth-death skyline models. Path-sampling marginal likelihood estimation is conducted to assess model fit. A bibliographic search to gather surveillance-based R ₀ values were consistently lower (mean ≤ 1.2) when estimated by coalescent models than by the birth-death models with informative priors on the duration of infectiousness (mean ≥ 1.3 to ≤2.88 days). The user-defined informative priors for use in the birth-death model shift the directionality of epidemiological and evolutionary parameters compared to non-informative estimates. While there was no certain impact of clock rate and tree height on the R ₀ estimation, an opposite relationship was observed between coalescent and birth-death tree priors. There was no significant difference (p = 0.46) between the birth-death model and surveillance R ₀ estimates. This study concludes that tree-prior methodological differences may have a substantial impact on the transmission potential estimation as well as the evolutionary parameters. The study also reports a consensus between the sequence-based R ₀ estimation and surveillance-based R ₀ estimates. Altogether, these outcomes shed light on the potential role of phylodynamic modeling to augment existing surveillance and epidemiological activities to better assess and respond to emerging infectious diseases.

Multilocus evidence provides insight into the demographic history and asymmetrical gene flow between Ostrinia furnacalis and Ostrinia nubilalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in the Yili area, Xinjiang, China

Tianshan Mountains provide a model for studying biological evolution and speciation. Here we assess the evolutionary history of Ostrinia furnacalis (ACB) and Ostrinia nubilalis (ECB), which are sympatric in the Yili River Valley in Xinjiang, China.Our study is based on the historical gene flow analyses of two species by using three mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA, COI, COII, Cytb) and four nuclear DNA (nuDNA, EF-1α, Wingless, RPS5, CAD) markers obtained from representatives of HC (Huocheng), YN (Yining), XY (Xinyuan), and MNS (Manasi).Our results reveal that there is an asymmetrical gene flow pattern between the four populations. The population migratory pathways between these different populations show inflow into HC and YN, outflow from XY, and that MNS maintained a flow balance. Bayesian divergence time dating based on the COI gene suggests that the genetic divergence between the two species in this area may have occurred in Holocene at 0.008 Mya. Neutrality tests (Tajima's D, Fu's F s), and mismatch distribution test results suggest that population expansion events may not have occurred in the recent past. The demographic history and gene flow pattern between ACB and ECB may follow the "mountain isolation" hypothesis. The ML and BI trees of the mtDNA haplotype dataset show that ECB haplotypes are grouped together in a distinct clade and are clearly separate from ACB haplotypes. However, the geographical pattern of haplotype distribution is less clear for both ACB and ECB, supporting that there has been frequent gene flow among the geographic populations in the Tianshan Mountains.These findings indicate that the Tianshan Mountains are less likely a barrier to gene flow of the two species.

Interspecies Transmission from Pigs to Ferrets of Antigenically Distinct Swine H1 Influenza A Viruses with Reduced Reactivity to Candidate Vaccine Virus Antisera as Measures of Relative Zoonotic Risk

During the last decade, endemic swine H1 influenza A viruses (IAV) from six different genetic clades of the hemagglutinin gene caused zoonotic infections in humans. The majority of zoonotic events with swine IAV were restricted to a single case with no subsequent transmission. However, repeated introduction of human-seasonal H1N1, continual reassortment between endemic swine IAV, and subsequent drift in the swine host resulted in highly diverse swine IAV with human-origin genes that may become a risk to the human population. To prepare for the potential of a future swine-origin IAV pandemic in humans, public health laboratories selected candidate vaccine viruses (CVV) for use as vaccine seed strains. To assess the pandemic risk of contemporary US swine H1N1 or H1N2 strains, we quantified the genetic diversity of swine H1 HA genes, and identified representative strains from each circulating clade. We then characterized the representative swine IAV against human seasonal vaccine and CVV strains using ferret antisera in hemagglutination inhibition assays (HI). HI assays revealed that 1A.3.3.2 (pdm09) and 1B.2.1 (delta-2) demonstrated strong cross reactivity to human seasonal vaccines or CVVs. However, swine IAV from three clades that represent more than 50% of the detected swine IAVs in the USA showed significant reduction in cross-reactivity compared to the closest CVV virus: 1A.1.1.3 (alpha-deletion), 1A.3.3.3-clade 3 (gamma), and 1B.2.2.1 (delta-1a). Representative viruses from these three clades were further characterized in a pig-to-ferret transmission model and shown to exhibit variable transmission efficiency. Our data prioritize specific genotypes of swine H1N1 and H1N2 to further investigate in the risk they pose to the human population.

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of multi-strain RNA viruses

Potential interactions among co-circulating viral strains in host populations are often overlooked in the study of virus transmission. However, these interactions probably shape transmission dynamics by influencing host immune responses or altering the relative fitness among co-circulating strains. In this Review, we describe multi-strain dynamics from ecological and evolutionary perspectives, outline scales in which multi-strain dynamics occur and summarize important immunological, phylogenetic and mathematical modelling approaches used to quantify interactions among strains. We also discuss how host-pathogen interactions influence the co-circulation of pathogens. Finally, we highlight outstanding questions and knowledge gaps in the current theory and study of ecological and evolutionary dynamics of multi-strain viruses.

The Emergence, Diversification, and Transmission of Subgroup J Avian Leukosis Virus Reveals that the Live Chicken Trade Plays a Critical Role in the Adaption and Endemicity of Viruses to the Yellow-Chickens

The geographical spread and inter-host transmission of the subgroup J avian leukosis virus (ALV-J) may be the most important issues for epidemiology. An integrated analysis, including phylogenetic trees, homology modeling, evolutionary dynamics, selection analysis and viral transmission, based on the gp85 gene sequences of the 665 worldwide ALV-J isolates during 1988-2020, was performed. A new Clade 3 has been emerging and was evolved from the dominating Clade 1.3 of the Chinese Yellow-chicken, and the loss of a α-helix or β-sheet of the gp85 protein monomer was found by the homology modeling. The rapid evolution found in Clades 1.3 and 3 may be closely associated with the adaption and endemicity of viruses to the Yellow-chickens. The early U.S. strains from Clade 1.1 acted as an important source for the global spread of ALV-J and the earliest introduction into China was closely associated with the imported chicken breeders in the 1990s. The dominant outward migrations of Clades 1.1 and 1.2, respectively, from the Chinese northern White-chickens and layers to the Chinese southern Yellow-chickens, and the dominating migration of Clade 1.3 from the Chinese southern Yellow-chickens to other regions and hosts, indicated that the long-distance movement of these viruses between regions in China was associated with the live chicken trade. Furthermore, Yellow-chickens have been facing the risk of infections of the emerging Clades 2 and 3. Our findings provide new insights for the epidemiology and help to understand the critical factors involved in ALV-J dissemination. IMPORTANCE Although the general epidemiology of ALV-J is well studied, the ongoing evolutionary and transmission dynamics of the virus remain poorly investigated. The phylogenetic differences and relationship of the clades and subclades were characterized, and the epidemics and factors driving the geographical spread and inter-host transmission of different ALV-J clades were explored for the first time. The results indicated that the earliest ALV-J (Clade 1.1) from the United States, acted as the source for global spreads, and Clades 1.2, 1.3 and 3 were all subsequently evolved. Also the epidemiological investigation showed that the early imported breeders and the inter-region movements of live chickens facilitated the ALV-J dispersal throughout China and highlighted the needs to implement more effective containment measures.

The Diversity and Spatiotemporally Evolutionary Dynamic of Atypical Porcine Pestivirus in China

The presence of congenital tremor (CT) type A-II in newborn piglets, caused by atypical porcine pestivirus (APPV), has been a focus since 2016. However, the source, evolutionary history, and transmission pattern of APPV in China remain poorly understood. In this study, we undertook phylogenetic analyses based on available complete E2 gene sequences along with 98 newly sequenced E2 genes between 2016 and 2020 in China within the context of global genetic diversity. The phylogenies revealed four distinct lineages of APPV, and interestingly, all lineages could be detected in China with the greatest diversity. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses showed that the E2 gene evolves at a mean rate of 1.22 × 10⁻³ (8.54 × 10⁻⁴-1.60 × 10⁻³) substitutions/site/year. The most recent common ancestor for APPVs is dated to 1886 (1837–1924) CE, somewhat earlier than the documented emergence of CT (1922 CE). Our phylogeographic analyses suggested that the APPV population possibly originated in the Netherlands, a country with developed livestock husbandry, and was introduced into China during the period 1837–2010. Guangdong, as a primary seeding population together with Central and Southwest China as epidemic linkers, was responsible for the dispersal of APPVs in China. The transmission pattern of “China lineages” (lineage 3 and lineage 4) presented a “south to north” movement tendency, which was likely associated with the implementation of strict environmental policy in China since 2000. Reconstruction of demographic history showed that APPV population size experienced multiple changes, which correlated well with the dynamic of the number of pigs in the past decades in China. Besides, positively selected pressure and geography-driven adaptation were supposed to be key factors for the diversification of APPV lineages. Our findings provide comprehensive insights into the diversity and spatiotemporal dynamic of APPV in China.

The 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Hemagglutinin Stalk Remained Antigenically Stable after Circulating in Humans for a Decade

An H1N1 influenza virus caused a pandemic in 2009, and descendants of this virus continue to circulate seasonally in humans. Upon infection with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain (pH1N1), many humans produced antibodies against epitopes in the hemagglutinin (HA) stalk. HA stalk-focused antibody responses were common among pH1N1-infected individuals because HA stalk epitopes were conserved between the pH1N1 strain and previously circulating H1N1 strains. Here, we completed a series of experiments to determine if the pH1N1 HA stalk has acquired substitutions since 2009 that prevent the binding of human antibodies. We identified several amino acid substitutions that accrued in the pH1N1 HA stalk from 2009 to 2019. We completed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, absorption-based binding assays, and surface plasmon resonance experiments to determine if these substitutions affect antibody binding. Using sera collected from 230 humans (aged 21 to 80 years), we found that pH1N1 HA stalk substitutions that have emerged since 2009 do not affect antibody binding. Our data suggest that the HA stalk domain of pH1N1 viruses remained antigenically stable after circulating in humans for a decade. IMPORTANCE In 2009, a new pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) virus began circulating in humans. Many individuals mounted hemagglutinin (HA) stalk-focused antibody responses upon infection with the 2009 pH1N1 strain, since the HA stalk of this virus was relatively conserved with other seasonal H1N1 strains. Here, we completed a series of studies to determine if the 2009 pH1N1 strain has undergone antigenic drift in the HA stalk domain over the past decade. We found that serum antibodies from 230 humans could not antigenically distinguish the 2009 and 2019 HA stalk. These data suggest that the HA stalk of pH1N1 has remained antigenically stable, despite the presence of high levels of HA stalk antibodies within the human population.

Reconstruction of the Evolutionary Origin, Phylodynamics, and Phylogeography of the Porcine Circovirus Type 3

Porcine circovirus type 3 (PCV3) is a newly identified virus associated with porcine dermatitis and nephropathy syndrome (PDNS) and multisystemic inflammatory responses in pigs. Recent studies suggests that PCV3 originated from bat circoviruses; however, the origin time, mode of spread, and geographic distribution of PCV3 remain unclear. In this study, the evolutionary origin, phylodynamics, and phylogeography of PCV3 were reconstructed based on the available complete genome sequences. PCV3 showed a closer relationship with bird circovirus than with bat circovirus, but their common ancestor was bat circovirus, indicating that birds may be intermediate hosts for the spread of circoviruses in pigs. Using the BEAST and phylogenetic analyses, three different clades of PCV3 (PCV3a, PCV3b, and PCV3c) were identified, with PCV3a being the most prevalent PCV3 clade. Further studies indicated that the earliest origin of PCV3 can be traced back to 1907.53–1923.44, with a substitution rate of 3.104 × 10^–4 to 6.8524 × 10^–4 substitution/site/year. A phylogeographic analysis highlighted Malaysia as the earliest location of the original PCV3, which migrated to Asia, America, and Europe. Overall, this study provides novel insights into the evolutionary origin, spread mode, and geographic distribution of PCV3, which will facilitate the prevention and control of PCV3 epidemics in the future.

The Evolution, Genomic Epidemiology, and Transmission Dynamics of Tembusu Virus

Tembusu virus (TMUV) can induce severe egg drop syndrome in ducks, causing significant economic losses. In this study, the possible origin, genomic epidemiology, and transmission dynamics of TMUV were determined. The time to the most recent common ancestor of TMUV was found to be 1924, earlier than that previously reported. The effective population size of TMUV increased rapidly from 2010 to 2013 and was associated with the diversification of different TMUV clusters. TMUV was classified into three clusters (clusters 1, 2, and 3) based on the envelope (E) protein. Subcluster 2.2, within cluster 2, is the most prevalent, and the occurrence of these mutations is accompanied by changes in the virulence and infectivity of the virus. Two positive selections on codons located in the NS3 and NS5 genes (591 of NS3 and 883 of NS5) were identified, which might have caused changes in the ability of the virus to replicate. Based on phylogeographic analysis, Malaysia was the most likely country of origin for TMUV, while Shandong Province was the earliest province of origin in China. This study has important implications for understanding TMUV and provides suggestions for its prevention and control.

Projecting the SARS-CoV-2 transition from pandemicity to endemicity: Epidemiological and immunological considerations

In this review, we discuss the epidemiological dynamics of different viral infections to project how the transition from a pandemic to endemic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might take shape. Drawing from theories of disease invasion and transmission dynamics, waning immunity in the face of viral evolution and antigenic drift, and empirical data from influenza, dengue, and seasonal coronaviruses, we discuss the putative periodicity, severity, and age dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic. We review recent studies on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, immunology, and evolution that are particularly useful in projecting the transition to endemicity and highlight gaps that warrant further research.

Phylogeny, Evolution, and Transmission Dynamics of Canine and Feline Coronaviruses: A Retro-Prospective Study

Canine coronavirus (CCoV) and feline coronavirus (FCoV) are endemic in companion animals. Due to their high mutation rates and tendencies of genome recombination, they pose potential threats to public health. The molecular characteristics and genetic variation of both CCoV and FCoV have been thoroughly studied, but their origin and evolutionary dynamics still require further assessment. In the present study, we applied a comprehensive approach and analyzed the S, M, and N genes of different CCoV/FCoV isolates. Discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) and phylogenetic analysis showed that the FCoV sequences from Chinese isolates were closely related to the FCoV clusters in Netherlands, while recombination analysis indicated that of S N-terminal domain (NTD) was the most susceptible region of mutation, and recombination of this region is an important cause of the emergence of new lineages. Natural selection showed that CCoV and FCoV subgenotypes were in selection constraints, and CCoV-IIb was in strong positive selection. Phylodynamics showed that the mean evolution rate of S1 genes of CCoV and FCoV was 1.281 × 10^–3 and 1.244 × 10^–3 subs/site/year, respectively, and the tMRCA of CCoV and FCoV was about 1901 and 1822, respectively. Taken together, our study centered on tracing the origin of CCoV/FCoV and provided ample insights into the phylogeny and evolution of canine and feline coronaviruses.

Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Dynamics of Human Influenza Type-A Viruses in Africa: A Systematic Review

Genomic characterization of circulating influenza type-A viruses (IAVs) directs the selection of appropriate vaccine formulations and early detection of potentially pandemic virus strains. However, longitudinal data on the genomic evolution and transmission of IAVs in Africa are scarce, limiting Africa's benefits from potential influenza control strategies. We searched seven databases: African Journals Online, Embase, Global Health, Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science according to the PRISMA guidelines for studies that sequenced and/or genomically characterized Africa IAVs. Our review highlights the emergence and diversification of IAVs in Africa since 1993. Circulating strains continuously acquired new amino acid substitutions at the major antigenic and potential N-linked glycosylation sites in their hemagglutinin proteins, which dramatically affected vaccine protectiveness. Africa IAVs phylogenetically mixed with global strains forming strong temporal and geographical evolution structures. Phylogeographic analyses confirmed that viral migration into Africa from abroad, especially South Asia, Europe, and North America, and extensive local viral mixing sustained the genomic diversity, antigenic drift, and persistence of IAVs in Africa. However, the role of reassortment and zoonosis remains unknown. Interestingly, we observed substitutions and clades and persistent viral lineages unique to Africa. Therefore, Africa's contribution to the global influenza ecology may be understated. Our results were geographically biased, with data from 63% (34/54) of African countries. Thus, there is a need to expand influenza surveillance across Africa and prioritize routine whole-genome sequencing and genomic analysis to detect new strains early for effective viral control.

Rapid and parallel adaptive mutations in spike S1 drive clade success in SARS-CoV-2

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has resulted in numerous virus variants, some of which have altered receptor-binding or antigenic phenotypes. Here, we quantify the degree to which adaptive evolution is driving the accumulation of mutations across the genome. We correlate clade growth with mutation accumulation, compare rates of nonsynonymous to synonymous divergence, assess temporal clustering of mutations, and evaluate the evolutionary success of individual mutations. We find that spike S1 is the focus of adaptive evolution but also identify positively selected mutations in other proteins (notably Nsp6) that are sculpting the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2. Adaptive changes in S1 accumulated rapidly, resulting in a remarkably high ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous divergence that is 2.5× greater than that observed in influenza hemagglutinin HA1 at the beginning of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. These findings uncover a high degree of adaptation in S1 and suggest that SARS-CoV-2 might undergo antigenic drift.

Phylogeography and evolutionary dynamics analysis of porcine delta-coronavirus with host expansion to humans

From 2003 onwards, three pandemics have been caused by coronaviruses: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV); middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV); and, most recently, SARS-CoV-2. Notably, all three were transmitted from animals to humans. This would suggest that animals are potential sources of epidemics for humans. The emerging porcine delta-coronavirus was reported to infect children. This is a red flag that marks the ability of PDCoV to break barriers of cross-species transmission to humans. Therefore, we conducted molecular genetic analysis of global clade PDCoV to characterize spatio-temporal patterns of viral diffusion and genetic diversity. PDCoV was classified into three major lineages, according to distribution and phylogenetic analysis of PDCoV. It can be inferred based on the analysis results of the currently known PDCoV strains that PDCoV might originate in Asia. We also selected six special spike amino acid sequences to align and analyze to find seven significant mutation sites. The accumulation of these mutations may enhance dynamic movements, accelerating spike protein membrane fusion events and transmission. Altogether, our study offers a novel insight into the diversification, evolution, and interspecies transmission and origin of PDCoV and emphasizes the need to study the zoonotic potential of the PDCoV and comprehensive surveillance and enhanced biosecurity precautions for PDCoV. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Host and geographic barriers shape the competition, coexistence, and extinction patterns of influenza A (H1N1) viruses

The influenza virus mutates and spreads rapidly, making it suitable for studying evolutionary and ecological processes. The ecological factors and processes by which different lineages of influenza compete or coexist within hosts through time and across geographical space are poorly known. We hypothesized that competition would be stronger for influenza viruses infecting the same host compared to different hosts (the Host Barrier Hypothesis), and for those with a higher cross-region transmission intensity (the Geographic Barrier Hypothesis). Using available sequences of the influenza A (H1N1) virus in GenBank, we identified six lineages, twelve clades, and several replacement events. We found that human-hosted lineages had a higher cross-region transmission intensity than swine-hosted lineages. Co-occurrence probabilities of lineages infecting the same host were lower than those infecting different hosts, and human-hosted lineages had lower co-occurrence probabilities and genetic diversity than swine-hosted lineages. These results show that H1N1 lineages infecting the same host or with high cross-region transmission rates experienced stronger competition and extinction pressures than those infecting different hosts or with low cross-region transmission. Our study highlights how host and geographic barriers shape the competition, extinction, and coexistence patterns of H1N1 lineages and clades.

Association between Adaptive Evolution of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Spike Protein and Geographically Distinct Virus Epidemiology During the Initial Wave of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, putatively caused by the widespread transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has resulted in significant mortality worldwide. The highly varied epidemiology of the disease both temporally and geographically has garnered much attention. The present study aimed to gain a deeper understanding of the varied geospatial disease epidemiology during the first wave of the pandemic. The highly mutable spike (S) protein, which confers fitness to SARS-CoV-2 for its survival and spread was studied using representative sequences determined from the initial phase of the pandemic. Adaptive evolution and selection pressure analysis of 311 whole-genome sequences from across the world including Asia (n=105), Europe (n=101), and the United States (n=105) was performed. A high selection pressure at position 614 of the S protein with a dN/dS (non-synonymous/synonymous substitutions per site) ratio of 124.3 for Asia and 867.9 was predicted for Europe. This positively selected site (i.e. 614) was located in the S1 domain (amino acids 14-680), which acts in binding to the angiotensin-converting co-enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor. The US strains did not exhibit significant positive selection at position 614. In addition, 10 sites (144, 241, 255, 262, 263, 276, 439,517, 528, and 557) in domain 1 and 19 sites (692, 709, 723, 752, 862, 864, 877, 892, 939, 951, 1015, 1060, 1076, 1114, 1116, 1128, 1176, 1235 and 1240) in domain 2 of the S protein mediating viral entry into host cells, exhibited significant negative selection among European strains of (SARS-CoV-2), however, no negative selection was observed in the Asian and US groups. The D614G spike protein variant has been correlated with fatal outcomes in European population and countries including Italy, France, Belgium, and Spain. D614G variants under high selective pressure in the Asian and European strains were also observed. In addition, the presence of 29 negatively selected codon sites under low selection pressure in the European group may imply improved viral fitness compared with strains circulating in other continents. In conclusion, selective pressure on the S protein, with maximum substitution rate, may have facilitated adaptive evolution of the virus and contributed to the worldwide spread of the virus.

Purifying Selection Determines the Short-Term Time Dependency of Evolutionary Rates in SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 Influenza

High-throughput sequencing enables rapid genome sequencing during infectious disease outbreaks and provides an opportunity to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in near real-time. One difficulty of undertaking evolutionary analyses over short timescales is the dependency of the inferred evolutionary parameters on the timespan of observation. Crucially, there are an increasing number of molecular clock analyses using external evolutionary rate priors to infer evolutionary parameters. However, it is not clear which rate prior is appropriate for a given time window of observation due to the time-dependent nature of evolutionary rate estimates. Here, we characterize the molecular evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza during the first 12 months of their respective pandemics. We use Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate the dates of emergence, evolutionary rates, and growth rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 over time and investigate how varying sampling window and data set sizes affect the accuracy of parameter estimation. We further use a generalized McDonald-Kreitman test to estimate the number of segregating nonneutral sites over time. We find that the inferred evolutionary parameters for both pandemics are time dependent, and that the inferred rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 decline by ∼50% and ∼100%, respectively, over the course of 1 year. After at least 4 months since the start of sequence sampling, inferred growth rates and emergence dates remain relatively stable and can be inferred reliably using a logistic growth coalescent model. We show that the time dependency of the mean substitution rate is due to elevated substitution rates at terminal branches which are 2-4 times higher than those of internal branches for both viruses. The elevated rate at terminal branches is strongly correlated with an increasing number of segregating nonneutral sites, demonstrating the role of purifying selection in generating the time dependency of evolutionary parameters during pandemics.

Rapid and parallel adaptive mutations in spike S1 drive clade success in SARS-CoV-2

Given the importance of variant SARS-CoV-2 viruses with altered receptor-binding or antigenic phenotypes, we sought to quantify the degree to which adaptive evolution is driving accumulation of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Here we assessed adaptive evolution across genes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome by correlating clade growth with mutation accumulation as well as by comparing rates of nonsynonymous to synonymous divergence, clustering of mutations across the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny and degree of convergent evolution of individual mutations. We find that spike S1 is the focus of adaptive evolution, but also identify positively-selected mutations in other genes that are sculpting the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2. Adaptive changes in S1 accumulated rapidly, resulting in a remarkably high ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous divergence that is 2.5X greater than that observed in HA1 at the beginning of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

Investigating host-virus interaction mechanism and phylogenetic analysis of viral proteins involved in the pathogenesis

Since the emergence of yellow fever in the Americas and the devastating 1918 influenza pandemic, biologists and clinicians have been drawn to human infecting viruses to understand their mechanisms of infection better and develop effective therapeutics against them. However, the complex molecular and cellular processes that these viruses use to infect and multiply in human cells have been a source of great concern for the scientific community since the discovery of the first human infecting virus. Viral disease outbreaks, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus, have claimed millions of lives and caused significant economic damage worldwide. In this study, we investigated the mechanisms of host-virus interaction and the molecular machinery involved in the pathogenesis of some common human viruses. We also performed a phylogenetic analysis of viral proteins involved in host-virus interaction to understand the changes in the sequence organization of these proteins during evolution for various strains of viruses to gain insights into the viral origin's evolutionary perspectives.

Circulation patterns of human seasonal Influenza A viruses in Chile before H1N1pdm09 pandemic

Understanding the diversity and circulation dynamics of seasonal influenza viruses is key to public health decision-making. The limited genetic information of pre-pandemic seasonal IAVs in Chile has made it difficult to accurately reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships of these viruses within the country. The objective of this study was to determine the genetic diversity of pre-pandemic human seasonal IAVs in Chile. We sequenced the complete genome of 42 historic IAV obtained between 1996 and 2007. The phylogeny was determined using HA sequences and complemented using other segments. Time-scale phylogenetic analyses revealed that the diversity of pre-pandemic human seasonal IAVs in Chile was influenced by continuous introductions of new A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 lineages and constant viral exchange between Chile and other countries every year. These results provide important knowledge about genetic diversity and evolutionary patterns of pre-pandemic human seasonal IAVs in Chile, which can help design optimal surveillance systems and prevention strategies. However, future studies with current sequences should be conducted.

Ecology of avian influenza viruses in migratory birds wintering within the Yangtze River wetlands

Migratory birds are considered natural reservoirs of avian influenza A viruses (AIVs). To further our viral ecology knowledge and understand the subsequent risk posed by wild birds, we conducted a 4-year surveillance study of AIVs in the bird wintering wetlands of the Yangtze River, China. We collected over 8000 samples and isolated 122 AIV strains. Analyses were then carried out with 108 novel sequenced genomes and data were deposited in GISAID and other public databases. The results showed that the Yangtze River wintering wetlands functioned as a mixing ground, where various subtypes of AIVs were detected harboring a high diversity of nucleotide sequences; moreover, a portion of AIV gene segments were persistent inter-seasonally. Phylogenetic incongruence presented complex reassortment events and distinct patterns among various subtypes. In addition, we observed that viral gene segments in wintering wetlands were closely related to known North American isolates, indicating that intercontinental gene flow occurred. Notably, highly pathogenic H5 and low pathogenic H9 viruses, which usually circulate in poultry, were found to have crossed the poultry/wild bird interface, with the viruses introduced to wintering birds. Overall, this study represented the largest AIV surveillance effort of wild birds within the Yangtze River wintering wetlands. Surveillance data highlighted the important role of wintering wild birds in the ecology of AIVs and may enable future early warnings of novel AIV emergence.

Spatial and Temporal Coevolution of N2 Neuraminidase and H1 and H3 Hemagglutinin Genes of Influenza A Virus in United States Swine

The neuraminidase (NA) and hemagglutinin (HA) are essential surface glycoproteins of influenza A virus (IAV). In this study, the evolution of subtype N2 NA paired with H1 and H3 subtype HA in swine was evaluated to understand if genetic diversity of HA and NA were linked. Using time-scaled Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, the relationships of paired swine N2 with H1 or H3 from 2009 to 2018 were evaluated. These data demonstrated increased relative genetic diversity within the major N2 clades circulating in swine in the United States (N2.1998 between 2014-2017 and N2.2002 between 2010-2016). Preferential pairing was observed among specific NA and HA genetic clades. Gene reassortment between cocirculating influenza A strains resulted in novel pairings that persisted. The changes of genetic diversity in the NA gene were quantified using Bayesian phylodynamic analyses and increases in diversity were observed subsequent to novel NA-HA reassortment events. The rate of evolution among NA-N2 clades and HA-H1 and HA-H3 clades were similar. Bayesian phylodynamic analyses demonstrated strong spatial patterns in N2 genetic diversity, but frequent interstate movement of rare N2 clades provided opportunity for reassortment and emergence of new N2-HA pairings. The frequent regional movement of pigs and their influenza viruses is an explanation for the documented patterns of reassortment and subsequent changes in gene diversity. The reassortment and evolution of NA and linked HA evolution may result in antigenic drift of both major surface glycoproteins, reducing vaccine efficacy, with subsequent impact on animal health.

Within-host evolutionary dynamics of seasonal and pandemic human influenza A viruses in young children

The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on infections in healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analyzed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally sampled individuals, mostly young children, infected with A/H1N1pdm09 or A/H3N2 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous minority variants were more prevalent than synonymous ones. For A/H3N2 viruses in young children, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. As these infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants typically increased in frequency even when within-host virus titers decreased. Unlike the short-lived infections of adults where de novo within-host variants are rare, longer infections in young children allow for the maintenance of virus diversity via mutation-selection balance creating potentially important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.

Molecular Phylogenesis and Spatiotemporal Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Southeast Asia

Background: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed an unprecedented challenge to public health in Southeast Asia, a tropical region with limited resources. This study aimed to investigate the evolutionary dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the region. Materials and Methods: A total of 1491 complete SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from 10 Southeast Asian countries were downloaded from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) database on November 17, 2020. The evolutionary relationships were assessed using maximum likelihood (ML) and time-scaled Bayesian phylogenetic analyses, and the phylogenetic clustering was tested using principal component analysis (PCA). The spatial patterns of SARS-CoV-2 spread within Southeast Asia were inferred using the Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) model. The effective population size (Ne) trajectory was inferred using the Bayesian Skygrid model. Results: Four major clades (including one potentially endemic) were identified based on the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree. Similar clustering was yielded by PCA; the first three PCs explained 46.9% of the total genomic variations among the samples. The time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) and the evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in Southeast Asia were estimated to be November 28, 2019 (September 7, 2019 to January 4, 2020) and 1.446 × 10-3 (1.292 × 10-3 to 1.613 × 10-3) substitutions per site per year, respectively. Singapore and Thailand were the two most probable root positions, with posterior probabilities of 0.549 and 0.413, respectively. There were high-support transmission links (Bayes factors exceeding 1,000) in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia; Malaysia involved the highest number (7) of inferred transmission links within the region. A twice-accelerated viral population expansion, followed by a temporary setback, was inferred during the early stages of the pandemic in Southeast Asia. Conclusions: With available genomic data, we illustrate the phylogeography and phylodynamics of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in Southeast Asia. Continuous genomic surveillance and enhanced strategic collaboration should be listed as priorities to curb the pandemic, especially for regional communities dominated by developing countries.

Genetic and antigenic diversity of H7N9 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in China

Avian influenza virus (AIV) H7N9 that emerged in 2013 in eastern China is a novel zoonotic agent mainly circulating in poultry without clinical signs but causing severe disease with high fatality in humans in more than 5 waves. Since the emergence of highly pathogenic (HP) H7N9 variants in 2016, it has induced heavy losses in the poultry industry leading to the implementation of an intensive nationwide vaccination program at the end of wave 5 (September 2017). To characterize the ongoing evolution of H7N9 AIV, we conducted analyses of H7N9 glycoprotein genes obtained from 2013 to 2019. Bayesian analyses revealed a decreasing population size of HP H7N9 variants post wave 5. Phylogenetic topologies revealed that two novel small subclades were formed and carried several fixed amino acid mutations that were along HA and NA phylogenetic trees since wave 5. Some of the mutations were located at antigenic sites or receptor binding sites. The antigenic analysis may reveal a significant antigenic drift evaluated by hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay and the antigenicity of H7N9 AIV might evolute in large leaps in wave 7. Molecular simulations found that the mutations (V135T, S145P, and L226Q) around the HA receptor pocket increased the affinity to α2,3-linked sialic acid (SIA) while decreased to α2,6-linked SIA. Altered affinity may suggest that HP H7N9 variations aggravate the pathogenicity to poultry but lessen the threat to public health. Selection analyses showed that the HP H7N9 AIV experienced an increasing selection pressure since wave 5, and the national implementation of vaccination might intensify the role of natural selection during the evolution waves 6 and 7. In summary, our data provide important insights about the genetic and antigenic diversity of circulating HP H7N9 viruses from 2017 to 2019. Enhanced surveillance is urgently warranted to understand the current situation of HP H7N9 AIV.

Fitness Estimation for Viral Variants in the Context of Cellular Coinfection

Animal models are frequently used to characterize the within-host dynamics of emerging zoonotic viruses. More recent studies have also deep-sequenced longitudinal viral samples originating from experimental challenges to gain a better understanding of how these viruses may evolve in vivo and between transmission events. These studies have often identified nucleotide variants that can replicate more efficiently within hosts and also transmit more effectively between hosts. Quantifying the degree to which a mutation impacts viral fitness within a host can improve identification of variants that are of particular epidemiological concern and our ability to anticipate viral adaptation at the population level. While methods have been developed to quantify the fitness effects of mutations using observed changes in allele frequencies over the course of a host’s infection, none of the existing methods account for the possibility of cellular coinfection. Here, we develop mathematical models to project variant allele frequency changes in the context of cellular coinfection and, further, integrate these models with statistical inference approaches to demonstrate how variant fitness can be estimated alongside cellular multiplicity of infection. We apply our approaches to empirical longitudinally sampled H5N1 sequence data from ferrets. Our results indicate that previous studies may have significantly underestimated the within-host fitness advantage of viral variants. These findings underscore the importance of considering the process of cellular coinfection when studying within-host viral evolutionary dynamics.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2: The Emergence of Important Genetic Variants and Testing Options for Clinical Laboratories

Monitoring the spread of emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants relies on rapid genetic testing of the viral genome. The sequencing method commonly called next-generation sequencing can identify virus variants. At times, for target-specific mutation detection, reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction is used to identify specific variants. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's national SARS-CoV-2 Strain Surveillance Program is a comprehensive, population-based U.S. surveillance system to monitor SARS-CoV-2 genes, identifying emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants to determine implications for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnostics, therapy, and vaccines. This review describes the main viral variants of concern and their potential impacts and briefly describes testing strategies.

Comparative analysis of spatial-temporal patterns of human metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus in Africa using genetic data, 2011-2014

BACKGROUND

Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are leading causes of viral severe acute respiratory illnesses in childhood. Both the two viruses belong to the Pneumoviridae family and show overlapping clinical, epidemiological and transmission features. However, it is unknown whether these two viruses have similar geographic spread patterns which may inform designing and evaluating their epidemic control measures.

METHODS

We conducted comparative phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses to explore the spatial-temporal patterns of HMPV and RSV across Africa using 232 HMPV and 842 RSV attachment (G) glycoprotein gene sequences obtained from 5 countries (The Gambia, Zambia, Mali, South Africa, and Kenya) between August 2011 and January 2014.

RESULTS

Phylogeographic analyses found frequently similar patterns of spread of RSV and HMPV. Viral sequences commonly clustered by region, i.e., West Africa (Mali, Gambia), East Africa (Kenya) and Southern Africa (Zambia, South Africa), and similar genotype dominance patterns were observed between neighbouring countries. Both HMPV and RSV country epidemics were characterized by co-circulation of multiple genotypes. Sequences from different African sub-regions (East, West and Southern Africa) fell into separate clusters interspersed with sequences from other countries globally.

CONCLUSION

The spatial clustering patterns of viral sequences and genotype dominance patterns observed in our analysis suggests strong regional links and predominant local transmission. The geographical clustering further suggests independent introduction of HMPV and RSV variants in Africa from the global pool, and local regional diversification.

Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis of a classical swine fever virus outbreak in Japan (2018-2020)

After 26 years, another classical swine fever virus (CSFV) outbreak in domestic pigs and wild boars occurred in Japan 2018. Herein, we investigated the entry and the spatial dynamics of the CSFV outbreak in Japan using the nearly complete genomes of strains isolated from both wild boars and domestic pigs during this epidemic. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of the Japanese lineage emerged 146 days (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 85-216 days) before the index case was detected. Based on epidemiological analysis, the period for the 95% HPD was 1 month earlier than the time of virus introduction into the index farm. The disease mainly spreads to the adjoining regions during the epidemic, with no spread to the nonadjacent regions. This result indicates that human activities, such as the movement of vehicles, contributed to the infection spread. As cases occurred in nonadjacent regions, the MRCA for the epidemic in the Saitama prefecture was estimated to have emerged 93 days before the date of detection in the initial farm in this region. Similarly, the MRCA for the epidemic in Okinawa prefecture, more than 1,300 km away from the other infected regions, was estimated to have emerged 34 days before the date of detection in the region's primary farm. Therefore, our results indicate that if exotic diseases emerge after a long period of absence or in a disease-free country, a longer period of time will elapse before detection, resulting in further spread. Additionally, subsequent infections occurring in regions distant from the original infected region will require less time for detection than in the original region. This study provides valuable insights into a CSFV outbreak that occurred in a previously CSFV-free country and thus beneficial in enhancing producers' awareness and allow for better preparation for infections.

The variant gambit: COVID-19's next move

More than a year after its emergence, COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, continues to plague the world and dominate our daily lives. Even with the development of effective vaccines, this coronavirus pandemic continues to cause a fervor with the identification of major new variants hailing from the United Kingdom, South Africa, Brazil, and California. Coupled with worries over a distinct mink strain that has caused human infections and potential for further mutations, SARS-CoV-2 variants bring concerns for increased spread and escape from both vaccine and natural infection immunity. Here, we outline factors driving SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution, explore the potential impact of specific mutations, examine the risk of further mutations, and consider the experimental studies needed to understand the threat these variants pose. In this review, Plante et al. examine SARS-CoV-2 variants including B.1.1.7 (UK), B.1.351 (RSA), P.1 (Brazil), and B.1.429 (California). They focus on what factors contribute to variant emergence, mutations in and outside the spike protein, and studies needed to understand the impact of variants on infection, transmission, and vaccine efficacy.

Isolation and evolutionary analysis of Senecavirus A isolates from Guangdong province, China

Senecavirus A (SVA), an emerging swine pathogen, has been reported in many provinces of China since the first outbreak in 2015 in Guangdong province. In this study, 10 lymph nodes positive for SVA, collected between 2018 and 2019 from slaughterhouses in Guangdong province, were subjected to virus isolation. Rapid and evident cytopathic effects (CPEs) were observed in SVA-infected PK-15 cells, including shrinking, rounding and detaching, with peak titers being reached at 24 h post infection (hpi). Electron microscopy showed that SVA particles are spherical and approximately 30 nm in diameter, and exist as crystalline lattices in cytoplasm revealed by ultra-thin sectioning. Phylogenetic analysis based on the whole genome sequences of all available isolates showed that SVA globally can be divided into two groups with each being further divided into two subgroups (Ia-b and IIa-b), and with the Guangdong isolates obtained here and other Chinese strains belonging to subgroups IIa and IIb. Evolutionary analysis showed that the mean substitution rate of SVA was 2.696 × 10^-3 per site per year based on whole genomic sequences, with subgroup IIb isolates having evolved faster than those of subgroup IIa. Analysis of efficient population size showed that the outbreak point of SVA worldwide occurred at the end of 2013 with that of subgroup IIb, the current dominant group, in mid 2014.

Phylogenetic analysis of the neuraminidase segment gene of Influenza A/H1N1 strains isolated from Monastir Region (Tunisia) during the 2017-2018 outbreak

Influenza A/H1N1 is widely considered to be a very evolutionary virus causing major public health problems. Since the pandemic of 2009, there has been a rapid rise in human Influenza virus characterization. However, little data is available in Tunisia regarding its genetic evolution. In light of this fact, our paper aim is to genetically characterize the Neuraminidase, known as the target of antiviral inhibitors, in Tunisian isolates circulating in Monastir region during 2017-2018. In total of 31 positive Influenza A/H1N1 detected by multiplex real-time PCR, RT-PCR of neuraminidase was performed. Among the 31 positive samples, 7 samples representing fatal and most severe cases were conducted for sequencing and genetic analysis. The results thus obtained showed genetic evolution of the A/H1N1 neuraminidase between 2009 and 2010 and 2018-2019 outbreaks. All Tunisian isolates were genetically related to the recommended vaccine strain with a specific evolution. Moreover, the phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that France and especially Italian strains were the major related strains. Interestingly, our results revealed a specific cluster of Tunisian isolates where two intragroup were evolved in correlation with the severity and the fatalities cases. From the outcome of our investigation, this study confirms the genetic evolution of the Influenza A virus circulating in Tunisia and gives a preliminary analysis for a better comprehension of new emerging Tunisian strain's virulence and thus, a more appropriate monitoring of Influenza virus A/H1N1 during each round of outbreaks.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11756-021-00723-y.

Etiology of febrile respiratory infections in the general adult population in Singapore, 2007-2013

Pathogens that cause upper respiratory infections are numerous and specific preventive and therapeutic strategies are scarce. In order to ascertain the etiological agents resulting in upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) in adults in Singapore, nasal swab samples were collected from 2057 patients presenting with fever at primary healthcare clinics in Singapore from December 2007 to February 2013. Samples were tested using the Luminex NxTAG Respiratory Pathogen Panel that includes 22 respiratory pathogen targets. Patient-reported symptoms and vital signs were recorded and full blood and differential counts taken. Pathogens were detected in the following order of frequency: influenza viruses, rhino-/enteroviruses, coronaviruses, parainfluenza viruses, pneumoviruses, adenovirus, bocavirus and C. pneumoniae. Fifteen virus species were detected as part of coinfections, in which rhinoviruses were the most commonly observed pathogen. Our results suggest that influenza viruses are the main etiological agents, but multiple other respiratory viruses contribute to the total burden of URTI in adults in Singapore.

Analysis of the evolution and transmission dynamics of the field MDV in China during the years 1995-2020, indicating the emergence of a unique cluster with the molecular characteristics of vv+ MDV that has become endemic in southern China

Marek's disease (MD) continues to threaten the sustainability of the world poultry industry. In this study, the sequences of the meq gene of 220 MDV strains isolated during the years 1964-2020 were analysed, including 50 from our group plus 170 isolates from the GenBank. Analyses, using phylogenetic trees, amino acid (aa)-mutation screening, evolutionary studies and transmission dynamics were all performed. All strains were divided into two clusters (Clusters 1 and 2), and Cluster 1 includes the mild strains, the vaccine strains and the foreign virulent strains, while Cluster 2 was dominated by the Chinese field strains. Our study identified that the Chinese field strains in Cluster 2 during the years 1995-2020 likely originated in the 1980s from abroad, and the estimated genetic diversity of these strains experienced two growth phases in the years 2005-2007.5 and 2015-2017. Viral phylogeography identified 3 major geographic provincial regions for the Chinese field strains of Cluster 2: the Northeastern Region (Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang), the East-central Region (Henan, Shandong and Jiangsu) and the Southern Region (Guangxi, Guangdong and Yunnan). The spread of Northeastern strains to East-central chicken flocks and the further spread from Guangxi to Guangdong are strongly indicated. The emergence of the mutations A88T and Q93R together in the Southern strains during the years 2017-2020 with molecular characteristics of vv+ MDV were also found later than those in the Northern strains. Overall, the Chinese field strains in Cluster 2 in southern China in recent years have been rapidly evolving. Guangxi Province has become an epicentre for these viruses and the chicken flocks in the Southern region have been facing the adverse effects of the emerging vv+ MDV.