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Yu W, Yang J, Sun D, Xue B, Sun W, Ren J, Yu H, Xiao X, Xia J, Li X. Shared insights for heat health risk adaptation in metropolitan areas of developing countries. iScience 2024; 27:109728. [PMID: 38706855 PMCID: PMC11068638 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109728] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Revised: 03/02/2024] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Global warming has led to a surge in heat health risks (HHRs), the impacts of which are particularly pronounced in metropolitan areas of developing countries. In the current study, six metropolitan areas - Beijing, China; Cairo, Egypt; Jakarta, Indonesia; Mumbai, India; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and Tehran, Iran - were selected as the study area to further differentiate the built-up landscapes by utilizing the concept of local climate zones. Moreover, we assessed the similarities and differences in HHR associated with the landscape. Results revealed a 30.67% higher HHR in compact built-up landscapes than in the open built-up type. Urban green spaces played an effective but differentiated role in mitigating HHR. That is, low vegetation in urbanized areas and trees in suburban areas significantly mitigated HHR. Collectively, our findings emphasize the role of effective planning and management in addressing HHR and provide empirical support for implementing HHR mitigation and adaptation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenbo Yu
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
- Human Settlements Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
| | - Jun Yang
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
- Human Settlements Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
- Jangho Architecture College, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
| | - Dongqi Sun
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciencess, Beijing 110016, China
| | - Bing Xue
- Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China
| | - Wei Sun
- Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China
| | - Jiayi Ren
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
| | - Huisheng Yu
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China
| | - Xiangming Xiao
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Earth Observation and Modeling, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA
| | - Jianhong(Cecilia) Xia
- School of Earth and Planetary Sciences (EPS), Curtin University, Perth, WA 65630, Australia
| | - Xueming Li
- Human Settlements Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
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Vecellio DJ, Lagoa CM, Conroy DE. Physical Activity Dependence on Relative Temperature and Humidity Characteristics in a Young, Insufficiently Active Population: A Weather Typing Analysis. J Phys Act Health 2024; 21:357-364. [PMID: 38290496 DOI: 10.1123/jpah.2023-0438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2023] [Revised: 12/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 02/01/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Physical activity (PA) is an important contributor to one's physical and mental health both acutely and across the lifespan. Much research has done on the ambient environment's impact on PA; however, these studies have used absolute values of atmospheric measures such as temperature and humidity, which vary spatiotemporally and make comparisons between studies which differ in location or time of year difficult to square with one another. METHODS Here, we employ the Global Weather Type Classification, Version 2, to determine the combined impact of temperature and humidity on PA in a sample of insufficiently active young adults. We conducted secondary analyses of data from a single-group behavioral intervention trial that varied the number of digital messages sent daily. Young adults (n = 81) wore Fitbit Versa smartwatches for a 6-month period sometime between April 2019 and July 2020, and location was tracked using a custom smartphone application. RESULTS Mixed linear models indicated that, across 8179 person-days, PA was significantly lower on days with humid conditions and significantly higher on warm dry days, though the latter relationship was no longer significant when controlling for timing in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic declaration. Demographic factors did not affect the relationship between weather and PA. CONCLUSIONS Results are a first step in providing additional guidance for encouraging PA in insufficiently active individuals given forecasted daily weather conditions. Future work should examine seasonal variability in the weather type-PA relationship without the influence of a world-altering event influencing results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J Vecellio
- Center for Healthy Aging, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Constantino M Lagoa
- School of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - David E Conroy
- Center for Healthy Aging, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
- Department of Kinesiology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
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Nyadanu SD, Dunne J, Tessema GA, Mullins B, Kumi-Boateng B, Bell ML, Duko B, Pereira G. Maternal exposure to ambient air temperature and adverse birth outcomes: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 917:170236. [PMID: 38272077 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2023] [Revised: 12/28/2023] [Accepted: 01/15/2024] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Multiple systematic reviews on prenatal ambient temperature and adverse birth outcomes exist, but the overall epidemiological evidence and the appropriate metric for thermal stress remain unclear. An umbrella review was performed to summarise and appraise the evidence with recommendations. METHODS Systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the associations between ambient temperature and adverse birth outcomes (preterm birth, stillbirth, birth weight, low birth weight, and small for gestational age) up to December 20, 2023, were synthesised according to a published protocol. Databases PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, MEDLINE/Ovid, EMBASE/Ovid, Web of Science Core Collection, systematic reviews repositories, electronic grey literature, and references were searched. Risk of bias was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute's critical appraisal tool. RESULTS Eleven systematic reviews, including two meta-analyses, were included. This comprised 90 distinct observational studies that employed multiple temperature assessment metrics with a very high overlap of primary studies. Primary studies were mostly from the United States while both Africa and South Asia contributed only three studies. A majority (7 out of 11) of the systematic reviews were rated as moderate risk of bias. All systematic reviews indicated that maternal exposures to both extremely high and low temperatures, particularly during late gestation are associated with increased risks of preterm birth, stillbirth, and reduced fetal growth. However, due to great differences in the exposure assessments, high heterogeneity, imprecision, and methodological limitations of the included systematic reviews, the overall epidemiological evidence was classified as probable evidence of causation. No study assessed biothermal metrics for thermal stress. CONCLUSIONS Despite the notable methodological differences, prenatal exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, particularly during late pregnancy, was associated with adverse birth outcomes. Adhering to the appropriate systematic review guidelines for environmental health research, incorporating biothermal metrics into exposure assessment, evidence from broader geodemographic settings, and interventions are recommended in future studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia; Education, Culture, and Health Opportunities (ECHO) Ghana, ECHO Research Group International, P. O. Box 424, Aflao, Ghana.
| | - Jennifer Dunne
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia
| | - Gizachew A Tessema
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia; School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia
| | - Ben Mullins
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia
| | - Bernard Kumi-Boateng
- Department of Geomatic Engineering, University of Mines and Technology, P. O. Box 237, Tarkwa, Ghana
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Bereket Duko
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia
| | - Gavin Pereira
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia; enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia; WHO Collaborating Centre for Climate Change and Health Impact Assessment, Faculty of Health Science, Curtin University, WA, Australia
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Giannaros C, Agathangelidis I, Galanaki E, Cartalis C, Kotroni V, Lagouvardos K, Giannaros TM, Matzarakis A. Hourly values of an advanced human-biometeorological index for diverse populations from 1991 to 2020 in Greece. Sci Data 2024; 11:76. [PMID: 38228665 PMCID: PMC10791640 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-02923-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 01/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Existing assessments of the thermal-related impact of the environment on humans are often limited by the use of data that are not representative of the population exposure and/or not consider a human centred approach. Here, we combine high resolution regional retrospective analysis (reanalysis), population data and human energy balance modelling, in order to produce a human thermal bioclimate dataset capable of addressing the above limitations. The dataset consists of hourly, population-weighted values of an advanced human-biometeorological index, namely the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), at fine-scale administrative level and for 10 different population groups. It also includes the main environmental drivers of mPET at the same spatiotemporal resolution, covering the period from 1991 to 2020. The study area is Greece, but the provided code allows for the ease replication of the dataset in countries included in the domains of the climate reanalysis and population data, which focus over Europe. Thus, the presented data and code can be exploited for human-biometeorological and environmental epidemiological studies in the European continent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christos Giannaros
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, 15784, Athens, Greece.
| | - Ilias Agathangelidis
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, 15784, Athens, Greece
| | - Elissavet Galanaki
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236, Athens, Greece
| | - Constantinos Cartalis
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, 15784, Athens, Greece
| | - Vassiliki Kotroni
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236, Athens, Greece
| | - Konstantinos Lagouvardos
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236, Athens, Greece
| | - Theodore M Giannaros
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236, Athens, Greece
| | - Andreas Matzarakis
- German Meteorological Service (DWD), Research Centre Human Biometeorology, D-79085, Freiburg, Germany
- University of Freiburg, Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, D-79104, Freiburg, Germany
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Choudhary RK, Joshi P, Ghosh S, Ganguly D, Balakrishnan K, Singh N, Mall RK, Kumar A, Dey S. Excess Mortality Risk Due to Heat Stress in Different Climatic Zones of India. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2024; 58:342-351. [PMID: 38151765 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c05218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2023]
Abstract
India is at a high risk of heat stress-induced health impacts and economic losses owing to its tropical climate, high population density, and inadequate adaptive planning. The health impacts of heat stress across climate zones in India have not been adequately explored. Here, we examine and report the vulnerability to heat stress in India using 42 years (1979-2020) of meteorological data from ERA-5 and developed climate-zone-specific percentile-based human comfort class thresholds. We found that the heat stress is usually 1-4 °C higher on heatwave (HW) days than on nonheatwave (NHW) days. However, the stress on NHW days remains considerable and cannot be neglected. We then showed the association of a newly formulated India heat index (IHI) with daily all-cause mortality in three cities - Delhi (semiarid), Varanasi (humid subtropical), and Chennai (tropical wet and dry), using a semiparametric quasi-Poisson regression model, adjusted for nonlinear confounding effects of time and PM2.5. The all-cause mortality risk was enhanced by 8.1% (95% confidence interval, CI: 6.0-10.3), 5.9% (4.6-7.2), and 8.0% (1.7-14.2) during "sweltering" days in Varanasi, Delhi, and Chennai, respectively, relative to "comfortable" days. Across four age groups, the impact was more severe in Varanasi (ranging from a 3.2 to 7.5% increase in mortality risk for a unit rise in IHI) than in Delhi (2.6-4.2% higher risk) and Chennai (0.9-5.7% higher risk). We observed a 3-6 days lag effect of heat stress on mortality in these cities. Our results reveal heterogeneity in heat stress impact across diverse climate zones in India and call for developing an early warning system keeping in mind these regional variations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rohit Kumar Choudhary
- Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi 110016, India
- Swami Shraddhanand College, University of Delhi, Delhi 110036, India
| | - Pallavi Joshi
- Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi 110016, India
| | - Santu Ghosh
- St. John's Medical College, Bengaluru 560034, India
| | - Dilip Ganguly
- Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi 110016, India
| | - Kalpana Balakrishnan
- SRU-ICMR Centre for Advanced Research on Air Quality, Climate and Health Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Public Health, Sri Ramachandra Institute for Higher Education and Research, Chennai 600116, India
| | - Nidhi Singh
- IUF - Leibniz Research Institute for Environmental Medicine, 103045 Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Rajesh Kumar Mall
- DST-Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221005, India
- Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221005, India
| | - Alok Kumar
- Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi 110016, India
| | - Sagnik Dey
- Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi 110016, India
- Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi 110016, India
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Muccione V, Biesbroek R, Harper S, Haasnoot M. Towards a more integrated research framework for heat-related health risks and adaptation. Lancet Planet Health 2024; 8:e61-e67. [PMID: 38199725 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00254-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 10/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
Advances in research on current and projected heat-related risks from climate change and the associated responses have rapidly developed over the past decade. Modelling architectures of climate impacts and heat-related health risks have become increasingly sophisticated alongside a growing number of experiments and socioeconomic studies, and possible options for heat-related health adaptation are increasingly being catalogued and assessed. However, despite this progress, these efforts often remain isolated streams of research, substantially hampering our ability to contribute to evidence-informed decision making on responding to heat-related health risks. We argue that the integration of scientific efforts towards more holistic research is urgently needed to tackle fragmented evidence and identify crucial knowledge gaps, so that health research can better anticipate and respond to heat-related health risks in the context of a changing climate. In this Personal View, we outline six building blocks, each constituting a research stream, but each needed as part of a more integrated research framework-namely, projected heat-related health risks; adaptation options; the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation; synergies, trade-offs, and co-benefits of adaptation; adaptation limits and residual risks; and adaptation pathways. We outline their respective importance and discuss their benefits for health-related research and policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Veruska Muccione
- Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
| | - Robbert Biesbroek
- Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Sherilee Harper
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - Marjolijn Haasnoot
- Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
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Leung M. Invited Perspective: Climate Change and Reproductive Health-the Perils of Oversimplification. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:121307. [PMID: 38149877 PMCID: PMC10752218 DOI: 10.1289/ehp13725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2023] [Revised: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 12/28/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Michael Leung
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Jingesi M, Lan S, Hu J, Dai M, Huang S, Chen S, Liu N, Lv Z, Ji J, Li X, Wang P, Cheng J, Peng J, Yin P. Association between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality in the subtropics. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:2093-2106. [PMID: 37878088 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02565-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Revised: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/15/2023] [Indexed: 10/26/2023]
Abstract
Hazardous thermal conditions resulting from climate change may play a role in cardiovascular disease development. We chose the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as the exposure metric to evaluate the relationship between thermal conditions and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen, China. We applied quasi-Poisson regression non-linear distributed lag models to evaluate the exposure-response associations. The findings suggest that cardiovascular mortality risks were significantly increased under heat and cold stress, and the adverse effects of cold stress were stronger than heat stress. Referencing the 50th percentile of UTCI (25.4°C), the cumulative risk of cardiovascular mortality was 75% (RRlag0-21 =1.75, 95%CI: 1.32, 2.32) higher in the 1st percentile (3.5°C), and 40% (RRlag0-21=1.40, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.80) higher in the 99th percentile (34.1°C). We observed that individuals older than 65 years were more vulnerable to both cold and heat stress, and females were identified as more susceptible to heat stress than males. Moreover, increased mortality risks of hypertensive disease and cerebrovascular disease were observed under cold stress, while heat stress was related to higher risks of mortality for hypertensive disease and ischemic heart disease. We also observed a stronger relationship between cold stress and ischemic heart disease mortality during the cold season, as well as a significant impact of heat stress on cerebrovascular disease mortality in the warm season when compared to the analysis of the entire year. These results confirm the significant relationship between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality, with age and sex as potential effect modifiers of this association. Providing affordable air conditioning equipment, increasing the amount of vegetation, and establishing comprehensive early warning systems that take human thermoregulation into account could all help to safeguard the well-being of the public, particularly vulnerable populations, in the event of future extreme weather.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maidina Jingesi
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Shuhua Lan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Jing Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Mengyi Dai
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Suli Huang
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Siyi Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Ning Liu
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Ziquan Lv
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Jiajia Ji
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Xiaoheng Li
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Peng Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Jinquan Cheng
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Ji Peng
- Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control, 2021 Buxin Rd, Shenzhen, 518020, Guangdong, China
| | - Ping Yin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China.
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Nyadanu SD, Tessema GA, Mullins B, Chai K, Yitshak-Sade M, Pereira G. Critical Windows of Maternal Exposure to Biothermal Stress and Birth Weight for Gestational Age in Western Australia. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:127017. [PMID: 38149876 PMCID: PMC10752220 DOI: 10.1289/ehp12660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2022] [Revised: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 12/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is limited and inconsistent evidence on the risk of ambient temperature on small for gestational age (SGA) and there are no known related studies for large for gestational age (LGA). In addition, previous studies used temperature rather than a biothermal metric. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to examine the associations and critical susceptible windows of maternal exposure to a biothermal metric [Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)] and the hazards of SGA and LGA. METHODS We linked 385,337 singleton term births between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2015 in Western Australia to daily spatiotemporal UTCI. Distributed lag nonlinear models with Cox regression and multiple models were used to investigate maternal exposure to UTCI from 12 weeks preconception to birth and the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of SGA and LGA. RESULTS Relative to the median exposure, weekly and monthly specific exposures showed potential critical windows of susceptibility for SGA and LGA at extreme exposures, especially during late gestational periods. Monthly exposure showed strong positive associations from the 6th to the 10th gestational months with the highest hazard of 13% for SGA (HR = 1.13 ; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.14) and 7% for LGA (HR = 1.07 ; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.11) at the 10th month for the 1st UTCI centile. Entire pregnancy exposures showed the strongest hazards of 11% for SGA (HR = 1.11 ; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.18) and 3% for LGA (HR = 1.03 ; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.11) at the 99th UTCI centile. By trimesters, the highest hazards were found during the second and first trimesters for SGA and LGA, respectively, at the 99th UTCI centile. Based on estimated interaction effects, male births, mothers who were non-Caucasian, smokers, ≥ 35 years of age, and rural residents were most vulnerable. CONCLUSIONS Both weekly and monthly specific extreme biothermal stress exposures showed potential critical susceptible windows of SGA and LGA during late gestational periods with disproportionate sociodemographic vulnerabilities. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12660.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
- Education, Culture, and Health Opportunities (ECHO) Ghana, ECHO Research Group International, Aflao, Ghana
| | - Gizachew A. Tessema
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
- School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Ben Mullins
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Kevin Chai
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Maayan Yitshak-Sade
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | - Gavin Pereira
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
- enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
- World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health Impact Assessment, Faculty of Health Science, Curtin University, Bentley, Western Australia, Australia
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Vanos J, Guzman-Echavarria G, Baldwin JW, Bongers C, Ebi KL, Jay O. A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate. Nat Commun 2023; 14:7653. [PMID: 38030628 PMCID: PMC10687011 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43121-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8-34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9-33.7 °C (old)-0.9-13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2-13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5-3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Vanos
- School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.
| | - Gisel Guzman-Echavarria
- School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Jane W Baldwin
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA
| | - Coen Bongers
- Department of Medical Sciences, Radboud university medical center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ollie Jay
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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Vecellio DJ, Kong Q, Kenney WL, Huber M. Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2305427120. [PMID: 37812703 PMCID: PMC10589700 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2305427120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023] Open
Abstract
As heatwaves become more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting due to climate change, the question of breaching thermal limits becomes pressing. A wet-bulb temperature (Tw) of 35 °C has been proposed as a theoretical upper limit on human abilities to biologically thermoregulate. But, recent-empirical-research using human subjects found a significantly lower maximum Tw at which thermoregulation is possible even with minimal metabolic activity. Projecting future exposure to this empirical critical environmental limit has not been done. Here, using this more accurate threshold and the latest coupled climate model results, we quantify exposure to dangerous, potentially lethal heat for future climates at various global warming levels. We find that humanity is more vulnerable to moist heat stress than previously proposed because of these lower thermal limits. Still, limiting warming to under 2 °C nearly eliminates exposure and risk of widespread uncompensable moist heatwaves as a sharp rise in exposure occurs at 3 °C of warming. Parts of the Middle East and the Indus River Valley experience brief exceedances with only 1.5 °C warming. More widespread, but brief, dangerous heat stress occurs in a +2 °C climate, including in eastern China and sub-Saharan Africa, while the US Midwest emerges as a moist heat stress hotspot in a +3 °C climate. In the future, moist heat extremes will lie outside the bounds of past human experience and beyond current heat mitigation strategies for billions of people. While some physiological adaptation from the thresholds described here is possible, additional behavioral, cultural, and technical adaptation will be required to maintain healthy lifestyles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J. Vecellio
- Center for Healthy Aging, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802
| | - Qinqin Kong
- Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Department and the Institute for a Sustainable Future, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN47907
| | - W. Larry Kenney
- Center for Healthy Aging, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802
- Department of Kinesiology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802
- Graduate Program in Physiology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA16802
| | - Matthew Huber
- Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Department and the Institute for a Sustainable Future, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN47907
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12
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Powis CM, Byrne D, Zobel Z, Gassert KN, Lute AC, Schwalm CR. Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadg9297. [PMID: 37682995 PMCID: PMC10491292 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg9297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Accepted: 07/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023]
Abstract
As our planet warms, a critical research question is when and where temperatures will exceed the limits of what the human body can tolerate. Past modeling efforts have investigated the 35°C wet-bulb threshold, proposed as a theoretical upper limit to survivability taking into account physiological and behavioral adaptation. Here, we conduct an extreme value theory analysis of weather station observations and climate model projections to investigate the emergence of an empirically supported heat compensability limit. We show that the hottest parts of the world already experience these heat extremes on a limited basis and that under moderate continued warming parts of every continent, except Antarctica, will see a rapid increase in their extent and frequency. To conclude, we discuss the consequences of the emergence of this noncompensable heat and the need for incorporating different critical thermal limits into heat adaptation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carter M. Powis
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David Byrne
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Woods Hole, Falmouth, MA, USA
| | - Zachary Zobel
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Woods Hole, Falmouth, MA, USA
| | | | - A. C. Lute
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Woods Hole, Falmouth, MA, USA
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Shukla KK, Attada R. CMIP6 models informed summer human thermal discomfort conditions in Indian regional hotspot. Sci Rep 2023; 13:12549. [PMID: 37532718 PMCID: PMC10397217 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38602-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 07/11/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023] Open
Abstract
The frequency and intensity of extreme thermal stress conditions during summer are expected to increase due to climate change. This study examines sixteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that have been bias-adjusted using the quantile delta mapping method. These models provide Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for summer seasons between 1979 and 2010, which are regridded to a similar spatial grid as ERA5-HEAT (available at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution) using bilinear interpolation. The evaluation compares the summertime climatology and trends of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) mean UTCI with ERA5 data, focusing on a regional hotspot in northwest India (NWI). The Pattern Correlation Coefficient (between CMIP6 models and ERA5) values exceeding 0.9 were employed to derive the MME mean of UTCI, which was subsequently used to analyze the climatology and trends of UTCI in the CMIP6 models.The spatial climatological mean of CMIP6 MME UTCI demonstrates significant thermal stress over the NWI region, similar to ERA5. Both ERA5 and CMIP6 MME UTCI show a rising trend in thermal stress conditions over NWI. The temporal variation analysis reveals that NWI experiences higher thermal stress during the summer compared to the rest of India. The number of thermal stress days is also increasing in NWI and major Indian cities according to ERA5 and CMIP6 MME. Future climate projections under different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) indicate an increasing trend in thermal discomfort conditions throughout the twenty-first century. The projected rates of increase are approximately 0.09 °C per decade, 0.26 °C per decade, and 0.56 °C per decade, respectively. Assessing the near (2022-2059) and far (2060-2100) future, all three scenarios suggest a rise in intense heat stress days (UTCI > 38 °C) in NWI. Notably, the CMIP6 models predict that NWI could reach deadly levels of heat stress under the high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario. The findings underscore the urgency of addressing climate change and its potential impacts on human well-being and socio-economic sectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Krishna Kumar Shukla
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali, SAS Nagar, Manauli, Sector 81, Knowledge city, 140306, Punjab, India
| | - Raju Attada
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali, SAS Nagar, Manauli, Sector 81, Knowledge city, 140306, Punjab, India.
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14
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Lloyd SJ, Quijal-Zamorano M, Achebak H, Hajat S, Muttarak R, Striessnig E, Ballester J. The Direct and Indirect Influences of Interrelated Regional-Level Sociodemographic Factors on Heat-Attributable Mortality in Europe: Insights for Adaptation Strategies. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:87013. [PMID: 37606292 PMCID: PMC10443201 DOI: 10.1289/ehp11766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Revised: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heat is a significant cause of mortality, but impact patterns are heterogenous. Previous studies assessing such heterogeneity focused exclusively on risk rather than heat-attributable mortality burdens and assume predictors are independent. OBJECTIVES We assessed how four interrelated regional-level sociodemographic predictors-education, life expectancy, the ratio of older to younger people (aging index), and relative income-influence heterogeneity in heat-attributable mortality burdens in Europe and then derived insights into adaptation strategies. METHODS We extracted four outcomes from a temperature-mortality study covering 16 European countries: the rate of increase in mortality risk at moderate and extreme temperatures (moderate and extreme slope, respectively), the minimum mortality temperature percentile (MMTP), and the underlying mortality rate. We used structural equation modeling with country-level random effects to quantify the direct and indirect influences of the predictors on the outcomes. RESULTS Higher levels of education were directly associated with lower heat-related mortality at moderate and extreme temperatures via lower slopes and higher MMTPs. A one standard deviation increase in education was associated with a - 0.46 ± 0.14 , - 0.41 ± 0.12 , and 0.41 ± 0.12 standard deviation (± standard error ) change in the moderate slope, extreme slope, and MMTP, respectively. However, education had mixed indirect influences via associations with life expectancy, the aging index, and relative income. Higher life expectancy had mixed relations with heat-related mortality, being associated with higher risk at moderate temperatures (0.33 ± 0.11 for the moderate slope; - 0.19 ± 0.097 for the MMTP) but lower underlying mortality rates (- 0.72 ± 0.097 ). A higher aging index was associated with higher burdens through higher risk at extreme temperatures (0.13 ± 0.072 for the extreme slope) and higher underlying mortality rates (0.93 ± 0.055 ). Relative income had relatively small, mixed influences. DISCUSSION Our novel approach provided insights into actions for reducing the health impacts of heat. First, the results show the interrelations between possible vulnerability-generating mechanisms and suggest future research directions. Second, the findings point to the need for a dual approach to adaptation, with actions that explicitly target heat exposure reduction and actions focused explicitly on the root causes of vulnerability. For the latter, the climate crisis may be leveraged to accelerate ongoing general public health programs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11766.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon J Lloyd
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marcos Quijal-Zamorano
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Hicham Achebak
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Raya Muttarak
- Department of Statistical Sciences "Paolo Fortunati", University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | | | - Joan Ballester
- Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
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15
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Lo YTE, Mitchell DM, Buzan JR, Zscheischler J, Schneider R, Mistry MN, Kyselý J, Lavigne É, da Silva SP, Royé D, Urban A, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A, Vicedo‐Cabrera AM. Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY : A JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 2023; 43:5553-5568. [PMID: 37874919 PMCID: PMC10410159 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8160] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2022] [Revised: 06/05/2023] [Accepted: 06/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/26/2023]
Abstract
Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Y. T. Eunice Lo
- School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
- Cabot Institute for the EnvironmentUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - Dann M. Mitchell
- School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
- Cabot Institute for the EnvironmentUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - Jonathan R. Buzan
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics InstituteUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
| | - Jakob Zscheischler
- Department of Computational HydrosystemsHelmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH—UFZLeipzigGermany
| | - Rochelle Schneider
- Ф‐LabEuropean Space Agency (ESA‐ESRIN)FrascatiItaly
- Department of Public Health, Environments and SocietyLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
- Centre on Climate Change & Planetary HealthLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
- Forecast DepartmentEuropean Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)ReadingUK
| | - Malcolm N. Mistry
- Department of Public Health, Environments and SocietyLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
- Department of EconomicsCa' Foscari University of VeniceVeniceItaly
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsCzech Academy of SciencesPragueCzech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental SciencesCzech University of Life SciencesPragueCzech Republic
| | - Éric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of MedicineUniversity of OttawaOttawaCanada
- Air Health Science DivisionHeatlh CanadaOttawaCanada
| | | | - Dominic Royé
- Climate Research Foundation (FIC)MadridSpain
- Spanish Consortium for Research on Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP)Spain
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsCzech Academy of SciencesPragueCzech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental SciencesCzech University of Life SciencesPragueCzech Republic
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and SocietyLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | | | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and SocietyLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
- Centre on Climate Change & Planetary HealthLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
- Centre for Statistical MethodologyLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | - Ana M. Vicedo‐Cabrera
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
- Institute of Social and Preventive MedicineUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
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16
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Simpson CH, Brousse O, Ebi KL, Heaviside C. Commonly used indices disagree about the effect of moisture on heat stress. NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 2023; 6:s41612-023-00408-0. [PMID: 38204467 PMCID: PMC7615504 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00408-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 06/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
Irrigation and urban greening can mitigate extreme temperatures and reduce adverse health impacts from heat. However, some recent studies suggest these interventions could actually exacerbate heat stress by increasing humidity. These studies use different heat stress indices (HSIs), hindering intercomparisons of the relative roles of temperature and humidity. Our method uses calculus of variations to compare the sensitivity of HSIs to temperature and humidity, independent of HSI units. We explain the properties of different HSIs and identify conditions under which they disagree. We highlight recent studies where the use of different HSIs could have led to opposite conclusions. Our findings have significant implications for the evaluation of irrigation and urban greening as adaptive responses to overheating and climate adaptation measures in general. We urge researchers to be critical in their choice of HSIs, especially in relation to health outcomes; our method provides a useful tool for making informed comparisons.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles H. Simpson
- Institute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, UK
| | - Oscar Brousse
- Institute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, UK
| | - Kristie L. Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute of Environmental Design and Engineering, Bartlett School of Environment Energy and Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, UK
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17
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Nyadanu SD, Tessema GA, Mullins B, Kumi-Boateng B, Ofosu AA, Pereira G. Prenatal exposure to long-term heat stress and stillbirth in Ghana: A within-space time-series analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 222:115385. [PMID: 36736550 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115385] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2022] [Revised: 01/22/2023] [Accepted: 01/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Few studies examined the association between prenatal long-term ambient temperature exposure and stillbirth and fewer still from developing countries. Rather than ambient temperature, we used a human thermophysiological index, Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) to investigate the role of long-term heat stress exposure on stillbirth in Ghana. METHODS District-level monthly UTCI was linked with 90,532 stillbirths of 5,961,328 births across all 260 local districts between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2020. A within-space time-series design was applied with distributed lag nonlinear models and conditional quasi-Poisson regression. RESULTS The mean (28.5 ± 2.1 °C) and median UTCI (28.8 °C) indicated moderate heat stress. The Relative Risks (RRs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) for exposure to lower-moderate heat (1st to 25th percentiles of UTCI) and strong heat (99th percentile) stresses showed lower risks, relative to the median UTCI. The higher-moderate heat stress exposures (75th and 90th percentiles) showed greater risks which increased with the duration of heat stress exposures and were stronger in the 90th percentile. The risk ranged from 2% (RR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.99, 1.05) to 18% (RR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.02, 1.36) for the 90th percentile, relative to the median UTCI. Assuming causality, 19 (95% CI 3, 37) and 27 (95% CI 3, 54) excess stillbirths per 10,000 births were attributable to long-term exposure to the 90th percentile relative to median UTCI for the past six and nine months, respectively. Districts with low population density, low gross domestic product, and low air pollution which collectively defined rural districts were at higher risk as compared to those in the high level (urban districts). DISCUSSION Maternal exposure to long-term heat stress was associated with a greater risk of stillbirth. Climate change-resilient interventional measures to reduce maternal exposure to heat stress, particularly in rural areas may help lower the risk of stillbirth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia; Education, Culture, and Health Opportunities (ECHO) Ghana, ECHO Research Group International, Aflao, Ghana.
| | - Gizachew A Tessema
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia; School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5000, Australia; enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia
| | - Ben Mullins
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia
| | - Bernard Kumi-Boateng
- Department of Geomatic Engineering, University of Mines and Technology, P. O. Box 237, Tarkwa, Ghana
| | | | - Gavin Pereira
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia; enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia; Centre for Fertility and Health (CeFH), Norwegian Institute of Public Health, 0473, Oslo, Norway; WHO Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health Impact Assessment. Faculty of Health Science, Curtin University, WA, Australia
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18
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Cole R, Hajat S, Murage P, Heaviside C, Macintyre H, Davies M, Wilkinson P. The contribution of demographic changes to future heat-related health burdens under climate change scenarios. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2023; 173:107836. [PMID: 36822002 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.107836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Revised: 01/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/16/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Cole
- Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Peninah Murage
- Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Clare Heaviside
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett Faculty of Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Helen Macintyre
- Climate Change and Health Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, United Kingdom; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Michael Davies
- UCL Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett Faculty of Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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19
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Intraday adaptation to extreme temperatures in outdoor activity. Sci Rep 2023; 13:473. [PMID: 36627298 PMCID: PMC9832153 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-26928-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2022] [Accepted: 12/21/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Linkages between climate and human activity are often calibrated at daily or monthly resolutions, which lacks the granularity to observe intraday adaptation behaviors. Ignoring this adaptation margin could mischaracterize the health consequences of future climate change. Here, we construct an hourly outdoor leisure activity database using billions of cell phone location requests in 10,499 parks in 2017 all over China to investigate the within-day outdoor activity rhythm. We find that hourly temperatures above 30 °C and 35 °C depress outdoor leisure activities by 5% (95% confidence interval, CI 3-7%) and by 13% (95% CI 10-16%) respectively. This activity-depressing effect is larger than previous daily or monthly studies due to intraday activity substitution from noon and afternoon to morning and evening. Intraday adaptation is larger for locations and dates with time flexibility, for individuals more frequently exposed to heat, and for parks situated in urban areas. Such within-day adaptation substantially reduces heat exposure, yet it also delays the active time at night by about half an hour, with potential side effect on sleep quality. Combining empirical estimates with outputs from downscaled climate models, we show that unmitigated climate change will generate sizable activity-depressing and activity-delaying effects in summer when projected on an hourly resolution. Our findings call for more attention in leveraging real-time activity data to understand intraday adaptation behaviors and their associated health consequences in climate change research.
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20
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Guzman-Echavarria G, Middel A, Vanos J. Beyond heat exposure - new methods to quantify and link personal heat exposure, stress, and strain in diverse populations and climates: The journal Temperature toolbox. Temperature (Austin) 2022; 10:358-378. [PMID: 37554380 PMCID: PMC10405775 DOI: 10.1080/23328940.2022.2149024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2022] [Revised: 10/31/2022] [Accepted: 11/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Fine-scale personal heat exposure (PHE) information can help prevent or minimize weather-related deaths, illnesses, and reduced work productivity. Common methods to estimate heat risk do not simultaneously account for the intensity, frequency, and duration of thermal exposures, nor do they include inter-individual factors that modify physiological response. This study demonstrates new whole-body net thermal load estimations to link PHE to heat stress and strain over time. We apply a human-environment heat exchange model to examine how time-varying net thermal loads differ across climate contexts, personal attributes, and spatiotemporal scales. First, we investigate summertime climatic PHE impacts for three US cities: Phoenix, Miami, and New York. Second, we model body morphology and acclimatization for three profiles (middle-aged male/female; female >65 years). Finally, we quantify model sensitivity using representative data at synoptic and micro-scales. For all cases, we compare required and potential evaporative heat losses that can lead to dangerous thermal exposures based on (un)compensable heat stress. Results reveal misclassifications in heat stress or strain due to incomplete environmental data and assumed equivalent physiology and activities between people. Heat strain is most poorly represented by PHE alone for the elderly, non-acclimatized, those engaged in strenuous activities, and when negating solar radiation. Moreover, humid versus dry heat across climates elicits distinct thermal responses from the body. We outline criteria for inclusive PHE evaluations connecting heat exposure, stress, and strain while using physiological-based methods to avoid misclassifications. This work underlines the value of moving from "one-size-fits-all" thermal indices to "fit-for-purpose" approaches using personalized information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gisel Guzman-Echavarria
- School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Ariane Middel
- School of Arts, Media and Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
- School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University,Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Jennifer Vanos
- School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
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21
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Cottle RM, Lichter ZS, Vecellio DJ, Wolf ST, Kenney WL. Core temperature responses to compensable versus uncompensable heat stress in young adults (PSU HEAT Project). J Appl Physiol (1985) 2022; 133:1011-1018. [PMID: 36049058 PMCID: PMC9550570 DOI: 10.1152/japplphysiol.00388.2022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Revised: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 08/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
With global warming, much attention has been paid to the upper limits of human adaptability. However, the time to reach a generally accepted core temperature criterion (40.2°C) associated with heat-related illness above (uncompensable heat stress) and just below (compensable heat stress) the upper limits for heat balance remains unclear. Forty-eight (22 men/26 women; 23 ± 4 yr) subjects were exposed to progressive heat stress in an environmental chamber during minimal activity (MinAct, 159 ± 34 W) and light ambulation (LightAmb, 260 ± 55 W) in warm-humid (WH; ∼35°C, >60% RH) and hot-dry (HD; 43°C-48°C, <25% RH) environments until heat stress became uncompensable. For each condition, we compared heat storage (S) and the change in gastrointestinal temperature (ΔTgi) over time during compensable and uncompensable heat stress. In addition, we examined whether individual characteristics or seasonality were associated with the rate of increase in Tgi. During compensable heat stress, S was higher in HD than in WH environments (P < 0.05) resulting in a greater but more variable ΔTgi (P ≥ 0.06) for both metabolic rates. There were no differences among conditions during uncompensable heat stress (all P > 0.05). There was no influence of sex, aerobic fitness, or seasonality, but a larger body size was associated with a greater ΔTgi during LightAmb in WH (P = 0.003). The slopes of the Tgi response during compensable (WH: MinAct, 0.06, LightAmb, 0.09; HD: MinAct, 0.12, LightAmb, 0.15°C/h) and uncompensable (WH: MinAct, 0.74, LightAmb, 0.87; HD: MinAct, 0.71, LightAmb, 0.93°C/h) heat stress can be used to estimate the time to reach a target core temperature from any given starting value.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This study is the first to examine heat storage and the rate of change in core temperature above (uncompensable heat stress) and just below (compensable heat stress) critical environmental limits to human heat balance. Furthermore, we examine the influence of individual subject characteristics and seasonality on the change in core temperature in warm-humid versus hot-dry environments. We provide the rate of change in core temperature, enabling projections to be made to and from any hypothetical core temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel M Cottle
- Department of Kinesiology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
- Center for Healthy Aging, College of Health and Human Development, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
| | - Zachary S Lichter
- Department of Kinesiology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
| | - Daniel J Vecellio
- Center for Healthy Aging, College of Health and Human Development, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
| | - S Tony Wolf
- Department of Kinesiology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
| | - W Larry Kenney
- Department of Kinesiology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
- Center for Healthy Aging, College of Health and Human Development, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
- Graduate Program in Physiology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
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22
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Nyadanu SD, Tessema GA, Mullins B, Pereira G. Prenatal acute thermophysiological stress and spontaneous preterm birth in Western Australia, 2000-2015: A space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis. Int J Hyg Environ Health 2022; 245:114029. [PMID: 36049361 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2022.114029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2022] [Revised: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/20/2022] [Indexed: 10/15/2022]
Abstract
Epidemiologic evidence on acute heat and cold stress and preterm birth (PTB) is inconsistent and based on ambient temperature rather than a thermophysiological index. The aim of this study was to use a spatiotemporal thermophysiological index (Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) to investigate prenatal acute heat and cold stress exposures and spontaneous PTB. We conducted a space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis of 15,576 singleton live births with spontaneous PTB between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2015 in Western Australia. The association between UTCI and spontaneous PTB was examined with distributed lag nonlinear models and conditional quasi-Poisson regression. Relative to the median UTCI, there was negligible evidence for associations at the lower range of exposures (1st to 25th percentiles). We found positive associations in the 95th and 99th percentiles, which increased with increasing days of heat stress in the first week of delivery. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the immediate (delivery day) and cumulative short-term (up to six preceding days) exposures to heat stress (99th percentile, 31.2 °C) relative to no thermal stress (median UTCI, 13.8 °C) were 1.01 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.02) and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.06), respectively. Elevated effect estimates for heat stress were observed for the transition season, the year 2005-2009, male infants, women who smoked, unmarried, ≤ 19 years old, non-Caucasians, and high socioeconomic status. Effect estimates for cold stress (1st percentile, 0.7 °C) were highest in the transition season, during 2005-2009, and for married, non-Caucasian, and high socioeconomic status women. Acute heat stress was associated with an elevated risk of spontaneous PTB with sociodemographic vulnerability. Cold stress was associated with risk in a few vulnerable subgroups. Awareness and mitigation strategies such as hydration, reducing outdoor activities, affordable heating and cooling systems, and climate change governance may be beneficial. Further studies with the UTCI are required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia; Education, Culture, and Health Opportunities (ECHO) Ghana, ECHO Research Group International, Aflao, Ghana.
| | - Gizachew Assefa Tessema
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia; School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5000, Australia
| | - Ben Mullins
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia
| | - Gavin Pereira
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia; EnAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia, 6102, Australia; Centre for Fertility and Health (CeFH), Norwegian Institute of Public Health, 0473, Oslo, Norway
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23
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Nyadanu SD, Tessema GA, Mullins B, Pereira G. Maternal acute thermophysiological stress and stillbirth in Western Australia, 2000-2015: A space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 836:155750. [PMID: 35526628 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155750] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2022] [Revised: 05/02/2022] [Accepted: 05/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The extreme thermal environment driven by climate change disrupts thermoregulation in pregnant women and may threaten the survival of the developing fetus. OBJECTIVES To investigate the acute effect of maternal exposure to thermophysiological stress (measured with Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) on the risk of stillbirth and modification of this effect by sociodemographic disparities. METHODS We conducted a space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis of daily UTCI and 2835 singleton stillbirths between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2015 across multiple small areas in Western Australia. Distributed lag non-linear models were combined with conditional quasi-Poisson regression to investigate the effects of the UTCI exposure from the preceding 6 days to the day of stillbirth. We also explored effect modification by fetal and maternal sociodemographic factors. RESULTS The median UTCI was 13.9 °C (representing no thermal stress) while the 1st and 99th percentiles were 0.7 °C (slight cold stress) and 31.7 °C (moderate heat stress), respectively. Relative to median UTCI, we found positive associations between acute maternal cold and heat stresses and higher risks of stillbirth, increasing with the intensity and duration of the thermal stress episodes. The cumulative risk from the preceding 6 days to the day of stillbirth was stronger in the 99th percentile (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.21) than the 1st percentile (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.15), relative to the median UTCI. The risks were disproportionately higher in term and male stillborn fetuses, smoking, unmarried, ≤19 years old, non-Caucasian, and low socioeconomic status mothers. DISCUSSION Acute maternal exposure to both cold and heat stresses may contribute to the risk of stillbirth and be exacerbated by sociodemographic disparities. The findings suggest public health attention, especially for the identified higher-risk groups. Future studies should consider the use of a human thermophysiological index, rather than surrogates such as ambient temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia; Education, Culture, and Health Opportunities (ECHO) Ghana, ECHO Research Group International, Aflao, Ghana.
| | - Gizachew Assefa Tessema
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia; School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia
| | - Ben Mullins
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia
| | - Gavin Pereira
- Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia; enAble Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Kent Street, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia; Centre for Fertility and Health (CeFH), Norwegian Institute of Public Health, 0473 Oslo, Norway
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24
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Morrison SA. Moving in a hotter world: Maintaining adequate childhood fitness as a climate change countermeasure. Temperature (Austin) 2022; 10:179-197. [PMID: 37332309 PMCID: PMC10274554 DOI: 10.1080/23328940.2022.2102375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2022] [Revised: 07/09/2022] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 10/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Children cope with high temperatures differently than adults do, largely because of slight alterations in their body proportions and heat loss mechanisms compared to fully mature humans. Paradoxically, all current tools of assessing thermal strain have been developed on adults. As the Earth's warming continues to accelerate, children are set to bear the health risk brunt of rising global temperatures. Physical fitness has a direct impact on heat tolerance, yet children are less fit and more obese than ever before. Longitudinal research reveals that children have 30% lower aerobic fitness than their parents did at the same age; this deficit is greater than can be recovered by training alone. So, as the planet's climate and weather patterns become more extreme, children may become less capable of tolerating it. This comprehensive review provides an outline of child thermoregulation and assessment of thermal strain, before moving to summarize how aerobic fitness can modulate hyperthermia, heat tolerance, and behavioral thermoregulation in this under-researched population. The nature of child physical activity, physical fitness, and one's physical literacy journey as an interconnected paradigm for promoting climate change resilience is explored. Finally, future research foci are suggested to encourage continued exploration of this dynamic field, notable since more extreme, multifactorial environmental stressors are expected to continue challenging the physiological strain of the human population for the foreseeable future.
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25
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Dee SG, Nabizadeh E, Nittrouer CL, Baldwin JW, Li C, Gaviria L, Guo S, Lu K, Saunders‐Shultz BM, Gurwitz E, Samarth G, Weinberger KR. Increasing Health Risks During Outdoor Sports Due To Climate Change in Texas: Projections Versus Attitudes. GEOHEALTH 2022; 6:e2022GH000595. [PMID: 36254118 PMCID: PMC9363732 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2022] [Revised: 06/23/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Extreme heat is a recognized threat to human health. This study examines projected future trends of multiple measures of extreme heat across Texas throughout the next century, and evaluates the expected climate changes alongside Texas athletic staff (coach and athletic trainer) attitudes toward heat and climate change. Numerical climate simulations from the recently published Community Earth System Model version 2 and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project were used to predict changes in summer temperatures, heat indices, and wet bulb temperatures across Texas and also within specific metropolitan areas. A survey examining attitudes toward the effects of climate change on athletic programs and student athlete health was also distributed to high-school and university athletic staff. Heat indices are projected to increase beyond what is considered healthy/safe limits for outdoor sports activity by the mid-to-late 21st century. Survey results reveal a general understanding and acceptance of climate change and a need for adjustments in accordance with more dangerous heat-related events. However, a portion of athletic staff still do not acknowledge the changing climate and its implications for student athlete health and their athletic programs. Enhancing climate change and health communication across the state may initiate important changes to athletic programs (e.g., timing, duration, intensity, and location of practices), which should be made in accordance with increasingly dangerous temperatures and weather conditions. This work employs a novel interdisciplinary approach to evaluate future heat projections alongside attitudes from athletic communities toward climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvia G. Dee
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | | | | | - Jane W. Baldwin
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of California IrvineIrvineCAUSA
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisadesNYUSA
| | - Chelsea Li
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | - Lizzy Gaviria
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | - Selena Guo
- Department of EconomicsRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | - Karen Lu
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | | | - Emily Gurwitz
- Stanford University School of Humanities and SciencesPalo AltoCAUSA
| | - Gargi Samarth
- Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary SciencesRice UniversityHoustonTXUSA
| | - Kate R. Weinberger
- School of Population and Public HealthThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCCanada
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26
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Chen H, Zhao L, Dong W, Cheng L, Cai W, Yang J, Bao J, Liang XZ, Hajat S, Gong P, Liang W, Huang C. Spatiotemporal variation of mortality burden attributable to heatwaves in China, 1979-2020. Sci Bull (Beijing) 2022; 67:1340-1344. [PMID: 36546266 DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2022.05.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2022] [Revised: 04/08/2022] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Huiqi Chen
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200030, China
| | - Liang Zhao
- The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Wei Dong
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education & Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change & Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Liangliang Cheng
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Jun Yang
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Junzhe Bao
- School of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
| | - Xin-Zhong Liang
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center & Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park MD 20742, USA
| | - Shakoor Hajat
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Department of Earth Sciences, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
| | - Wannian Liang
- Institute of Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- Institute of Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
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27
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Assessing the Spatial Mapping of Heat Vulnerability under Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14094945] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon gets intensified in the process of urbanization, which increases the vulnerability of urban dwellers to heatwaves. The UHI-induced vulnerability to heatwaves has increased in Bangladesh during past decades. Thus, this study aims to examine the UHI and vulnerability to heatwaves in the city of Dhaka using a heat vulnerability index (HVI). The HVI is constructed using various demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental risk variables at thana level. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the 26 normalized variables for each of the 41 thanas of Dhaka to prepare the HVI. Result shows that more than 60% of the city is under built-up areas, while vegetation cover and water bodies are in low proportion. Analysis of HVI shows that the very high- and high-risk zones comprise 6 and 11 thanas, while low- and very low-risk zones comprise only 5 and 8 thanas. The correlation of HVI with variables such as exposure (0.62) and sensitivity (0.80) was found to be highly positive, while adaptive capacity had a negative correlation (−0.26) with the HVI. Findings of this study can be utilized in the mitigation of UHI phenomenon and maintaining the thermal comfort of Dhaka.
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28
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High-Resolution Estimation of Monthly Air Temperature from Joint Modeling of In Situ Measurements and Gridded Temperature Data. CLIMATE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/cli10030047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Surface air temperature is an important variable in quantifying extreme heat, but high-resolution temporal and spatial measurement is limited by sparse climate-data stations. As a result, hyperlocal models of extreme heat involve intensive physical data collection efforts or analyze satellite-derived land-surface temperature instead. We developed a geostatistical model that integrates in situ climate-quality temperature records, gridded temperature data, land-surface temperature estimates, and spatially consistent covariates to predict monthly averaged daily maximum surface-air temperatures at spatial resolutions up to 30 m. We trained and validated the model using data from North Carolina. The fitted model showed strong predictive performance with a mean absolute error of 1.61 ∘F across all summer months and a correlation coefficient of 0.75 against an independent hyperlocal temperature model for the city of Durham. We show that the proposed model framework is highly scalable and capable of producing realistic temperature fields across a variety of physiographic settings, even in areas where no climate-quality data stations are available.
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29
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Foster J, Smallcombe JW, Hodder S, Jay O, Flouris AD, Havenith G. Quantifying the impact of heat on human physical work capacity; part II: the observed interaction of air velocity with temperature, humidity, sweat rate, and clothing is not captured by most heat stress indices. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:507-520. [PMID: 34743228 PMCID: PMC8850241 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02212-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2021] [Revised: 10/14/2021] [Accepted: 10/16/2021] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Increasing air movement can alleviate or exacerbate occupational heat strain, but the impact is not well defined across a wide range of hot environments, with different clothing levels. Therefore, we combined a large empirical study with a physical model of human heat transfer to determine the climates where increased air movement (with electric fans) provides effective body cooling. The model allowed us to generate practical advice using a high-resolution matrix of temperature and humidity. The empirical study involved a total of 300 1-h work trials in a variety of environments (35, 40, 45, and 50 °C, with 20 up to 80% relative humidity) with and without simulated wind (3.5 vs 0.2 m∙s-1), and wearing either minimal clothing or a full body work coverall. Our data provides compelling evidence that the impact of fans is strongly determined by air temperature and humidity. When air temperature is ≥ 35 °C, fans are ineffective and potentially harmful when relative humidity is below 50%. Our simulated data also show the climates where high wind/fans are beneficial or harmful, considering heat acclimation, age, and wind speed. Using unified weather indices, the impact of air movement is well captured by the universal thermal climate index, but not by wet-bulb globe temperature and aspirated wet-bulb temperature. Overall, the data from this study can inform new guidance for major public and occupational health agencies, potentially maintaining health and productivity in a warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Josh Foster
- Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK
| | - James W Smallcombe
- Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK
| | - Simon Hodder
- Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK
| | - Ollie Jay
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | - George Havenith
- Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK.
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30
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Bouchama A, Abuyassin B, Lehe C, Laitano O, Jay O, O'Connor FG, Leon LR. Classic and exertional heatstroke. Nat Rev Dis Primers 2022; 8:8. [PMID: 35115565 DOI: 10.1038/s41572-021-00334-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 120] [Impact Index Per Article: 60.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
In the past two decades, record-breaking heatwaves have caused an increasing number of heat-related deaths, including heatstroke, globally. Heatstroke is a heat illness characterized by the rapid rise of core body temperature above 40 °C and central nervous system dysfunction. It is categorized as classic when it results from passive exposure to extreme environmental heat and as exertional when it develops during strenuous exercise. Classic heatstroke occurs in epidemic form and contributes to 9-37% of heat-related fatalities during heatwaves. Exertional heatstroke sporadically affects predominantly young and healthy individuals. Under intensive care, mortality reaches 26.5% and 63.2% in exertional and classic heatstroke, respectively. Pathological studies disclose endothelial cell injury, inflammation, widespread thrombosis and bleeding in most organs. Survivors of heatstroke may experience long-term neurological and cardiovascular complications with a persistent risk of death. No specific therapy other than rapid cooling is available. Physiological and morphological factors contribute to the susceptibility to heatstroke. Future research should identify genetic factors that further describe individual heat illness risk and form the basis of precision-based public health response. Prioritizing research towards fundamental mechanism and diagnostic biomarker discovery is crucial for the design of specific management approaches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abderrezak Bouchama
- King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Experimental Medicine Department, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
| | - Bisher Abuyassin
- King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Experimental Medicine Department, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Cynthia Lehe
- King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Experimental Medicine Department, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Orlando Laitano
- Department of Nutrition & Integrative Physiology, College of Health and Human Sciences, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | - Ollie Jay
- Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Francis G O'Connor
- Military and Emergency Medicine, Uniformed Services University, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Lisa R Leon
- Thermal and Mountain Medicine Division, United States Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine, Natick, Massachusetts, USA
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31
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Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world. Nat Commun 2021; 12:7286. [PMID: 34907184 PMCID: PMC8671389 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27328-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use reanalysis data to show that in the current climate approximately 30% of global heavy labor losses in the workday could be recovered by moving labor from the hottest hours of the day. However, we show that this particular workshift adaptation potential is lost at a rate of about 2% per degree of global warming as early morning heat exposure rises to unsafe levels for continuous work, with worker productivity losses accelerating under higher warming levels. These findings emphasize the importance of finding alternative adaptation mechanisms to keep workers safe, as well as the importance of limiting global warming. Outdoor workers may need to adapt to warming by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here the authors find this adaptation strategy loses efficacy under additional climate change due to increased heat exposure in the coolest hours of the day.
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32
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Wolff NH, Zeppetello LRV, Parsons LA, Aggraeni I, Battisti DS, Ebi KL, Game ET, Kroeger T, Masuda YJ, Spector JT. The effect of deforestation and climate change on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions due to heat exposure in Berau, Indonesia: a modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e882-e892. [PMID: 34774222 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00279-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2019] [Revised: 09/19/2021] [Accepted: 09/28/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies focusing on urban, industrialised regions have found that excess heat exposure can increase all-cause mortality, heat-related illnesses, and occupational injuries. However, little research has examined how deforestation and climate change can adversely affect work conditions and population health in low latitude, industrialising countries. METHODS For this modelling study we used data at 1 km2 resolution to compare forest cover and temperature conditions in the Berau regency, Indonesia, between 2002 and 2018. We used spatially explicit satellite, climate model, and population data to estimate the effects of global warming, between 2002 and 2018 and after applying 1·0°C, 1·5°C, and 2·0°C of global warming to 2018 temperatures, on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions in the Berau regency, Indonesia. FINDINGS Between 2002 and 2018, 4375 km2 of forested land in Berau was cleared, corresponding to approximately 17% of the entire regency. Deforestation increased mean daily maximum temperatures by 0·95°C (95% CI 0·97-0·92; p<0·0001). Mean daily temperatures increased by a population-weighted 0·86°C, accounting for an estimated 7·3-8·5% of all-cause mortality (or 101-118 additional deaths per year) in 2018. Unsafe work time increased by 0·31 h per day (95% CI 0·30-0·32; p<0·0001) in deforested areas compared to 0·03 h per day (0·03-0·04; p<0·0001) in areas that maintained forest cover. With 2·0°C of additional future global warming, relative to 2018, deforested areas could experience an estimated 17-20% increase in all-cause mortality (corresponding to an additional 236-282 deaths per year) and up to 5 h of unsafe work per day. INTERPRETATION Heat exposure from deforestation and climate change has already started affecting populations in low latitude, industrialising countries, and future global warming indicates substantial health impacts in these regions. Further research should examine how deforestation is currently affecting the health and wellbeing of local communities. FUNDING University of Washington Population Health Initiative. TRANSLATION For the Bahasa translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Luke A Parsons
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Ike Aggraeni
- Faculty of Public Health, Mulawarman University, Samarinda, Indonesia
| | - David S Battisti
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | - Yuta J Masuda
- Global Science, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA.
| | - June T Spector
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Abstract
Increased extreme heat exposure from both climate change and the urban heat island effect threatens rapidly growing urban settlements worldwide. Yet, because we do not know where urban population growth and extreme heat intersect, we have limited capacity to reduce the impacts of urban extreme heat exposure. Here, we leverage fine-resolution temperature and population data to measure urban extreme heat exposure for 13,115 cities from 1983 to 2016. Globally, urban exposure increased nearly 200%, affecting 1.7 billion people. Total urban warming elevated exposure rates 52% above population growth alone. However, spatially heterogeneous exposure patterns highlight an urgent need for locally tailored adaptations and early warning systems to reduce harm from urban extreme heat exposure across the planet’s diverse urban settlements. Increased exposure to extreme heat from both climate change and the urban heat island effect—total urban warming—threatens the sustainability of rapidly growing urban settlements worldwide. Extreme heat exposure is highly unequal and severely impacts the urban poor. While previous studies have quantified global exposure to extreme heat, the lack of a globally accurate, fine-resolution temporal analysis of urban exposure crucially limits our ability to deploy adaptations. Here, we estimate daily urban population exposure to extreme heat for 13,115 urban settlements from 1983 to 2016. We harmonize global, fine-resolution (0.05°), daily temperature maxima and relative humidity estimates with geolocated and longitudinal global urban population data. We measure the average annual rate of increase in exposure (person-days/year−1) at the global, regional, national, and municipality levels, separating the contribution to exposure trajectories from urban population growth versus total urban warming. Using a daily maximum wet bulb globe temperature threshold of 30 °C, global exposure increased nearly 200% from 1983 to 2016. Total urban warming elevated the annual increase in exposure by 52% compared to urban population growth alone. Exposure trajectories increased for 46% of urban settlements, which together in 2016 comprised 23% of the planet’s population (1.7 billion people). However, how total urban warming and population growth drove exposure trajectories is spatially heterogeneous. This study reinforces the importance of employing multiple extreme heat exposure metrics to identify local patterns and compare exposure trends across geographies. Our results suggest that previous research underestimates extreme heat exposure, highlighting the urgency for targeted adaptations and early warning systems to reduce harm from urban extreme heat exposure.
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Health Risks to the Russian Population from Temperature Extremes at the Beginning of the XXI Century. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12101331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters caused by climatic hazards have a significant and increasing direct and indirect impact on human health. Due to its vast area, complex geographical environment and various climatic conditions, Russia is one of the countries that suffers significantly from frequent climate hazards. This paper provides information about temperature extremes in Russia in the beginning of the 21st century, and their impact on human health. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases Web of Science, Science Direct, Scopus, and e-Library, focusing on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English and in Russian from 2000 to 2021. The results are summarized in 16 studies, which are divided into location-based groups, including Moscow, Saint Petersburg and other large cities located in various climatic zones: in the Arctic, in Siberia and in the southern regions, in ultra-continental and monsoon climate. Heat waves in cities with a temperate continental climate lead to a significant increase in all-cause mortality than cold waves, compared with cities in other climatic zones. At the same time, in northern cities, in contrast to the southern regions and central Siberia, the influence of cold waves is more pronounced on mortality than heat waves. To adequately protect the population from the effects of temperature waves and to carry out preventive measures, it is necessary to know specific threshold values of air temperature in each city.
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Ebi KL, Capon A, Berry P, Broderick C, de Dear R, Havenith G, Honda Y, Kovats RS, Ma W, Malik A, Morris NB, Nybo L, Seneviratne SI, Vanos J, Jay O. Hot weather and heat extremes: health risks. Lancet 2021; 398:698-708. [PMID: 34419205 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01208-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 305] [Impact Index Per Article: 101.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2020] [Revised: 12/15/2020] [Accepted: 05/20/2021] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
Hot ambient conditions and associated heat stress can increase mortality and morbidity, as well as increase adverse pregnancy outcomes and negatively affect mental health. High heat stress can also reduce physical work capacity and motor-cognitive performances, with consequences for productivity, and increase the risk of occupational health problems. Almost half of the global population and more than 1 billion workers are exposed to high heat episodes and about a third of all exposed workers have negative health effects. However, excess deaths and many heat-related health risks are preventable, with appropriate heat action plans involving behavioural strategies and biophysical solutions. Extreme heat events are becoming permanent features of summer seasons worldwide, causing many excess deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase further as climate change progresses, with greater risk associated with higher degrees of global warming. Particularly in tropical regions, increased warming might mean that physiological limits related to heat tolerance (survival) will be reached regularly and more often in coming decades. Climate change is interacting with other trends, such as population growth and ageing, urbanisation, and socioeconomic development, that can either exacerbate or ameliorate heat-related hazards. Urban temperatures are further enhanced by anthropogenic heat from vehicular transport and heat waste from buildings. Although there is some evidence of adaptation to increasing temperatures in high-income countries, projections of a hotter future suggest that without investment in research and risk management actions, heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Anthony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Peter Berry
- Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
| | - Carolyn Broderick
- School of Medical Sciences, UNSW Sydney, NSW, Australia; The Children's Hospital at Westmead, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Richard de Dear
- Indoor Environmental Quality Laboratory, School of Architecture, Design, and Planning, Sydney, NSW, Australia; The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - George Havenith
- Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, School of Design and Creative Arts, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - R Sari Kovats
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Wei Ma
- School of Public Health and Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Arunima Malik
- Discipline of Accounting, Business School, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Physics, Faculty of Science, ISA, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Nathan B Morris
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Nutrition, Exercise, and Sports, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Lars Nybo
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise, and Sports, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Sonia I Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jennifer Vanos
- School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Ollie Jay
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Sydney School of Health Sciences, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Faculty of Medicine and Health, Charles Perkins Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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Fears R, Abdullah KAB, Canales-Holzeis C, Caussy D, Haines A, Harper SL, McNeil JN, Mogwitz J, ter Meulen V. Evidence-informed policy for tackling adverse climate change effects on health: Linking regional and global assessments of science to catalyse action. PLoS Med 2021; 18:e1003719. [PMID: 34283834 PMCID: PMC8330928 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003719] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Revised: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Robin Fears and co-authors discuss evidence-informed regional and global policy responses to health impacts of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Deoraj Caussy
- Integrated Epidemiology Solutions, Ebene Reduit, Mauritius
| | - Andy Haines
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom
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Dasgupta S, van Maanen N, Gosling SN, Piontek F, Otto C, Schleussner CF. Effects of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply: an empirical, multi-model study. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e455-e465. [PMID: 34245716 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00170-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Revised: 06/03/2021] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although effects on labour is one of the most tangible and attributable climate impact, our quantification of these effects is insufficient and based on weak methodologies. Partly, this gap is due to the inability to resolve different impact channels, such as changes in time allocation (labour supply) and slowdown of work (labour productivity). Explicitly resolving those in a multi-model inter-comparison framework can help to improve estimates of the effects of climate change on labour effectiveness. METHODS In this empirical, multi-model study, we used a large collection of micro-survey data aggregated to subnational regions across the world to estimate new, robust global and regional temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature exposure-response functions (ERFs) for labour supply. We then assessed the uncertainty in existing labour productivity response functions and derived an augmented mean function. Finally, we combined these two dimensions of labour into a single compound metric (effective labour effects). This combined measure allowed us to estimate the effect of future climate change on both the number of hours worked and on the productivity of workers during their working hours under 1·5°C, 2·0°C, and 3·0°C of global warming. We separately analysed low-exposure (indoors or outdoors in the shade) and high-exposure (outdoor in the sun) sectors. FINDINGS We found differentiated empirical regional and sectoral ERF's for labour supply. Current climate conditions already negatively affect labour effectiveness, particularly in tropical countries. Future climate change will reduce global total labour in the low-exposure sectors by 18 percentage points (range -48·8 to 5·3) under a scenario of 3·0°C warming (24·8 percentage points in the high-exposure sectors). The reductions will be 25·9 percentage points (-48·8 to 2·7) in Africa, 18·6 percentage points (-33·6 to 5·3) in Asia, and 10·4 percentage points (-35·0 to 2·6) in the Americas in the low-exposure sectors. These regional effects are projected to be substantially higher for labour outdoors in full sunlight compared with indoors (or outdoors in the shade) with the average reductions in total labour projected to be 32·8 percentage points (-66·3 to 1·6) in Africa, 25·0 percentage points (-66·3 to 7·0) in Asia, and 16·7 percentage points (-45·5 to 4·4) in the Americas. INTERPRETATION Both labour supply and productivity are projected to decrease under future climate change in most parts of the world, and particularly in tropical regions. Parts of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and southeast Asia are at highest risk under future warming scenarios. The heterogeneous regional response functions suggest that it is necessary to move away from one-size-fits-all response functions to investigate the climate effect on labour. Our findings imply income and distributional consequences in terms of increased inequality and poverty, especially in low-income countries, where the labour effects are projected to be high. FUNDING COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).
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Affiliation(s)
- Shouro Dasgupta
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice Italy; Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venice, Italy.
| | - Nicole van Maanen
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Simon N Gosling
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Franziska Piontek
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Christian Otto
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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High-Resolution Modelling of Thermal Exposure during a Hot Spell: A Case Study Using PALM-4U in Prague, Czech Republic. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12020175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The modelling of thermal exposure in outdoor urban environments is a highly topical challenge in modern climate research. This paper presents the results derived from a new micrometeorological model that employs an integrated biometeorology module to model Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). This is PALM-4U, which includes an integrated human body-shape parameterization, deployed herein for a pilot domain in Prague, Czech Republic. The results highlight the key role of radiation in the spatiotemporal variability of thermal exposure in moderate-climate urban areas during summer days in terms of the way in which this directly affects thermal comfort through radiant temperature and indirectly through the complexity of turbulence in street canyons. The model simulations suggest that the highest thermal exposure may be expected within street canyons near the irradiated north sides of east–west streets and near streets oriented north–south. Heat exposure in streets increases in proximity to buildings with reflective paints. The lowest heat exposure during the day may be anticipated in tree-shaded courtyards. The cooling effect of trees may range from 4 °C to 9 °C in UTCI, and the cooling effect of grass in comparison with artificial paved surfaces in open public places may be from 2 °C to 5 °C UTCI. In general terms, this study illustrates that the PALM modelling system provides a new perspective on the spatiotemporal differentiation of thermal exposure at the pedestrian level; it may therefore contribute to more climate-sensitive urban planning.
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