Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions

Examining the effects of voluntary avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated behaviour change on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical model

Background

Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, policymakers have had to navigate between recommending voluntary behaviour change and policy-driven behaviour change to mitigate the impact of the virus. While individuals will voluntarily engage in self-protective behaviour when there is an increasing infectious disease risk, the extent to which this occurs and its impact on an epidemic is not known.

Methods

This paper describes a deterministic disease transmission model exploring the impact of individual avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated avoidance behaviour on epidemic outcomes during the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Ontario, Canada (September 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021). The model incorporates an information feedback function based on empirically derived behaviour data describing the degree to which avoidance behaviour changed in response to the number of new daily cases COVID-19.

Results

Voluntary avoidance behaviour alone was estimated to reduce the final attack rate by 23.1%, the total number of hospitalizations by 26.2%, and cumulative deaths by 27.5% over 6 months compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there were no interventions or avoidance behaviour. A provincial shutdown order issued on December 26, 2020 was estimated to reduce the final attack rate by 66.7%, the total number of hospitalizations by 66.8%, and the total number of deaths by 67.2% compared to the counterfactual scenario.

Conclusion

Given the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a pre-vaccine era, individual avoidance behaviour in the absence of government action would have resulted in a moderate reduction in disease however, it would not have been sufficient to entirely mitigate transmission and the associated risk to the population in Ontario. Government action during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario reduced infections, protected hospital capacity, and saved lives.

Epidemic modelling suggests that in specific circumstances masks may become more effective when fewer contacts wear them

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 depends on many contextual factors, including adherence. Conventional wisdom holds that the effectiveness of protective behaviours, such as wearing masks, increases with the number of people who adopt them. Here we show in a simulation study that this is not always true.

METHODS

We use a parsimonious network model based on the well-established empirical facts that adherence to such interventions wanes over time and that individuals tend to align their adoption strategies with their close social ties (homophily).

RESULTS

When these assumptions are combined, a broad dynamic regime emerges in which the individual-level reduction in infection risk for those adopting protective behaviour increases as adherence to protective behaviour decreases. For instance, at 10 % coverage, we find that adopters face nearly a 30 % lower infection risk than at 60 % coverage. Based on surgical mask effectiveness estimates, the relative risk reduction for masked individuals ranges from 5 % to 15 %, or a factor of three. This small coverage effect occurs when the outbreak is over before the pathogen is able to invade small but closely knit groups of individuals who protect themselves.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm that lower coverage reduces protection at the population level while contradicting the common belief that masking becomes ineffective at the individual level as more people drop their masks.

Using real-time modelling to inform the 2017 Ebola outbreak response in DR Congo

Important policy questions during infections disease outbreaks include: i) How effective are particular interventions?; ii) When can resource-intensive interventions be removed? We used mathematical modelling to address these questions during the 2017 Ebola outbreak in Likati Health Zone, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Eight cases occurred before 15 May 2017, when the Ebola Response Team (ERT; co-ordinated by the World Health Organisation and DRC Ministry of Health) was deployed to reduce transmission. We used a branching process model to estimate that, pre-ERT arrival, the reproduction number was R = 1.49 (95% credible interval ( 0.67, 2.81 ) ). The risk of further cases occurring without the ERT was estimated to be 0.97 (97%). However, no cases materialised, suggesting that the ERT's measures were effective. We also estimated the risk of withdrawing the ERT in real-time. By the actual ERT withdrawal date (2 July 2017), the risk of future cases without the ERT was only 0.01, indicating that the ERT withdrawal decision was safe. We evaluated the sensitivity of our results to the estimated R value and considered different criteria for determining the ERT withdrawal date. This research provides an extensible modelling framework that can be used to guide decisions about when to relax interventions during future outbreaks.

Analyzing the use of non-pharmaceutical personal protective measures through self-interest and social optimum for the control of an emerging disease

Non-pharmaceutical personal protective (NPP) measures such as face masks use, and hand and respiratory hygiene can be effective measures for mitigating the spread of aerosol/airborne diseases, such as COVID-19, in the absence of vaccination or treatment. However, the usage of such measures is constrained by their inherent perceived cost and effectiveness for reducing transmission risk. To understand the complex interaction of disease dynamics and individuals decision whether to adopt NPP or not, we incorporate evolutionary game theory into an epidemic model such as COVID-19. To compare how self-interested NPP use differs from social optimum, we also investigated optional control from a central planner's perspective. We use Pontryagin's maximum principle to identify the population-level NPP uptake that minimizes disease incidence by incurring the minimum costs. The evolutionary behavior model shows that NPP uptake increases at lower perceived costs of NPP, higher transmission risk, shorter duration of NPP use, higher effectiveness of NPP, and shorter duration of disease-induced immunity. Though social optimum NPP usage is generally more effective in reducing disease incidence than self-interested usage, our analysis identifies conditions under which both strategies get closer. Our model provides new insights for public health in mitigating a disease outbreak through NPP.

M. Heuvelink G, Wu C, Yang J, Ruktanonchai NW, Qader SH, Ruktanonchai CW, Cleary E, Yao Y, Liu J, Nnanatu CC, Wesolowski A, Cummings DA, Tatem AJ, Lai S. Optimizing the detection of emerging infections using mobility-based spatial sampling

Timely and precise detection of emerging infections is imperative for effective outbreak management and disease control. Human mobility significantly influences the spatial transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Spatial sampling, integrating the spatial structure of the target, holds promise as an approach for testing allocation in detecting infections, and leveraging information on individuals' movement and contact behavior can enhance targeting precision. This study introduces a spatial sampling framework informed by spatiotemporal analysis of human mobility data, aiming to optimize the allocation of testing resources for detecting emerging infections. Mobility patterns, derived from clustering point-of-interest and travel data, are integrated into four spatial sampling approaches at the community level. We evaluate the proposed mobility-based spatial sampling by analyzing both actual and simulated outbreaks, considering scenarios of transmissibility, intervention timing, and population density in cities. Results indicate that leveraging inter-community movement data and initial case locations, the proposed Case Flow Intensity (CFI) and Case Transmission Intensity (CTI)-informed spatial sampling enhances community-level testing efficiency by reducing the number of individuals screened while maintaining a high accuracy rate in infection identification. Furthermore, the prompt application of CFI and CTI within cities is crucial for effective detection, especially in highly contagious infections within densely populated areas. With the widespread use of human mobility data for infectious disease responses, the proposed theoretical framework extends spatiotemporal data analysis of mobility patterns into spatial sampling, providing a cost-effective solution to optimize testing resource deployment for containing emerging infectious diseases.

The effect of mobility reductions on infection growth is quadratic in many cases

Stay-at-home orders were introduced in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, limiting the time people spent outside their home and the attendance of gatherings. In this study, we argue from a theoretical model that in many cases the effect of such stay-at-home orders on incidence growth should be quadratic, and that this statement should also hold beyond COVID-19. That is, a reduction of the out-of-home duration to, say, 70% of its original value should reduce incidence growth and thus the effective R-value to 70 % · 70 % = 49 % of its original value. We then show that this hypothesis can be substantiated from data acquired during the COVID-19 pandemic by using a multiple regression model to fit a combination of the quadratic out-of-home duration and temperature to the COVID-19 growth multiplier. We finally demonstrate that many other models, when brought to the same scale, give similar reductions of the effective R-value, but that none of these models extend plausibly to an out-of-home duration of zero.

COVID-19 transmission between the community and meat processing plants in Ireland: A retrospective modelling study

Outbreaks of COVID-19 in meat processing plants (MPPs) were recorded globally throughout the pandemic. There was speculation these outbreaks resulted in dissemination of COVID-19 throughout the surrounding county leading to high incidence rates. We aimed to investigate the dynamics of spread between MPPs and their surrounding counties. In this retrospective longitudinal study, data were collected on the number and size of outbreaks in 33 MPPs and county infections in Ireland between March 2020 and May 2021. These data were used to investigate the relationship between outbreaks in MPPs and county infection rates through statistical analysis, and the development of a novel SEIR model. We found an association between the number of MPPs present in a county and county incidence rates, however, incidence rates in the counties did not increase as a consequence of an outbreak in an MPP. The model results indicate that county incidence rates in the weeks prior to an MPP outbreak could reliably predict the size of that outbreak in a plant, r(49) = 0·62, p < 0·0001, RMSD = 5·6. In Ireland, outbreaks in MPPs were strongly correlated with high levels of infection in the surrounding county, rather than being a driver of infection in the county. The modified SEIR model described here can provide an explanation of the generative process required to cause outbreaks of the size and scale that occur in MPPs.

Social network analysis reveals the failure of between-farm movement restrictions to reduce Salmonella transmission

An increasing number of countries are investigating options to stop the spread of the emerging zoonotic infection Salmonella (S.) Dublin, which mainly spreads among bovines and with cattle manure. Detailed surveillance and cattle movement data from an 11-year period in Denmark provided an opportunity to gain new knowledge for mitigation options through a combined social network and simulation modeling approach. The analysis revealed similar network trends for non-infected and infected cattle farms despite stringent cattle movement restrictions imposed on infected farms in the national control program. The strongest predictive factor for farms becoming infected was their cattle movement activities in the previous month, with twice the effect of local transmission. The simulation model indicated an endemic S. Dublin occurrence, with peaks in outbreak probabilities and sizes around observed cattle movement activities. Therefore, pre- and post-movement measures within a 1-mo time-window may help reduce S. Dublin spread.

Association between meteorological variations and the superspreading potential of SARS-CoV-2 infections

BACKGROUND

While many investigations examined the association between environmental covariates and COVID-19 incidence, none have examined their relationship with superspreading, a characteristic describing very few individuals disproportionally infecting a large number of people.

METHODS

Contact tracing data of all the laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong from February 16, 2020 to April 30, 2021 were used to form the infection clusters for estimating the time-varying dispersion parameter (kt), a measure of superspreading potential. Generalized additive models with identity link function were used to examine the association between negative-log kt (larger means higher superspreading potential) and the environmental covariates, adjusted with mobility metrics that account for the effect of social distancing measures.

RESULTS

A total of 6,645 clusters covering 11,717 cases were reported over the study period. After centering at the median temperature, a lower ambient temperature at 10th percentile (18.2 °C) was significantly associated with a lower estimate of negative-log kt (adjusted expected change: -0.239 [95 % CI: -0.431 to -0.048]). While a U-shaped relationship between relative humidity and negative-log kt was observed, an inverted U-shaped relationship with actual vapour pressure was found. A higher total rainfall was significantly associated with lower estimates of negative-log kt.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated a link between meteorological factors and the superspreading potential of COVID-19. We speculated that cold weather and rainy days reduced the social activities of individuals minimizing the interaction with others and the risk of spreading the diseases in high-risk facilities or large clusters, while the extremities of relative humidity may favor the stability and survival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Understanding the Complexities of Student Learning Progress in Texas: A Study of COVID-19 and Rural vs. Non-Rural Districts

In this study, we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on academic achievement in Texas public schools. Demographic and Grade 5 STAAR test data were collected from 1155 public school districts for 2018-2019 and 2020-2021. Multiple regression was adopted to analyze the differences between rural and non-rural districts, as well as the impact of demographic characteristics on students' achievement. The results reveal significant differences in demographic characteristics between the two academic years, with non-rural districts exhibiting a greater decline in academic achievement than rural districts. Additionally, the findings suggest that higher teacher salaries correlate with better academic performance across various subjects and that English learners require additional support to acquire content knowledge and skills. We further confirm that the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the academic learning experience of Texas students, with rural districts displaying more resilience than non-rural districts.

Inference under superspreading: Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Germany

Superspreading, under-reporting, reporting delay, and confounding complicate statistical inference on determinants of disease transmission. A model that accounts for these factors within a Bayesian framework is estimated using German Covid-19 surveillance data. Compartments based on date of symptom onset, location, and age group allow to identify age-specific changes in transmission, adjusting for weather, reported prevalence, and testing and tracing. Several factors were associated with a reduction in transmission: public awareness rising, information on local prevalence, testing and tracing, high temperature, stay-at-home orders, and restaurant closures. However, substantial uncertainty remains for other interventions including school closures and mandatory face coverings. The challenge of disentangling the effects of different determinants is discussed and examined through a simulation study. On a broader perspective, the study illustrates the potential of surveillance data with demographic information and date of symptom onset to improve inference in the presence of under-reporting and reporting delay.

Autonomous and policy-induced behavior change during the COVID-19 pandemic: Towards understanding and modeling the interplay of behavioral adaptation

Changes in human behaviors, such as reductions of physical contacts and the adoption of preventive measures, impact the transmission of infectious diseases considerably. Behavioral adaptations may be the result of individuals aiming to protect themselves or mere responses to public containment measures, or a combination of both. What drives autonomous and policy-induced adaptation, how they are related and change over time is insufficiently understood. Here, we develop a framework for more precise analysis of behavioral adaptation, focusing on confluence, interactions and time variance of autonomous and policy-induced adaptation. We carry out an empirical analysis of Germany during the fall of 2020 and beyond. Subsequently, we discuss how behavioral adaptation processes can be better represented in behavioral-epidemiological models. We find that our framework is useful to understand the interplay of autonomous and policy-induced adaptation as a "moving target". Our empirical analysis suggests that mobility patterns in Germany changed significantly due to both autonomous and policy-induced adaption, with potentially weaker effects over time due to decreasing risk signals, diminishing risk perceptions and an erosion of trust in the government. We find that while a number of simulation and prediction models have made great efforts to represent behavioral adaptation, the interplay of autonomous and policy-induced adaption needs to be better understood to construct convincing counterfactual scenarios for policy analysis. The insights presented here are of interest to modelers and policy makers aiming to understand and account for behaviors during a pandemic response more accurately.

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19-related hospital strain in France using a non-Markovian mechanistic model

Projects such as the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub publish forecasts on the national level for new deaths, new cases, and hospital admissions, but not direct measurements of hospital strain like critical care bed occupancy at the sub-national level, which is of particular interest to health professionals for planning purposes. We present a sub-national French framework for forecasting hospital strain based on a non-Markovian compartmental model, its associated online visualisation tool and a retrospective evaluation of the real-time forecasts it provided from January to December 2021 by comparing to three baselines derived from standard statistical forecasting methods (a naive model, auto-regression, and an ensemble of exponential smoothing and ARIMA). In terms of median absolute error for forecasting critical care unit occupancy at the two-week horizon, our model only outperformed the naive baseline for 4 out of 14 geographical units and underperformed compared to the ensemble baseline for 5 of them at the 90% confidence level (n = 38). However, for the same level at the 4 week horizon, our model was never statistically outperformed for any unit despite outperforming the baselines 10 times spanning 7 out of 14 geographical units. This implies modest forecasting utility for longer horizons which may justify the application of non-Markovian compartmental models in the context of hospital-strain surveillance for future pandemics.

Using a population-based Kalman estimator to model the COVID-19 epidemic in France: estimating associations between disease transmission and non-pharmaceutical interventions

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, governments have adopted a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). These include stringent measures such as strict lockdowns, closing schools, bars and restaurants, curfews, and barrier gestures such as mask-wearing and social distancing. Deciphering the effectiveness of each NPI is critical to responding to future waves and outbreaks. To this end, we first develop a dynamic model of the French COVID-19 epidemics over a one-year period. We rely on a global extended Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mechanistic model of infection that includes a dynamic transmission rate over time. Multilevel data across French regions are integrated using random effects on the parameters of the mechanistic model, boosting statistical power by multiplying integrated observation series. We estimate the parameters using a new population-based statistical approach based on a Kalman filter, used for the first time in analysing real-world data. We then fit the estimated time-varying transmission rate using a regression model that depends on the NPIs while accounting for vaccination coverage, the occurrence of variants of concern (VoC), and seasonal weather conditions. We show that all NPIs considered have an independent significant association with transmission rates. In addition, we show a strong association between weather conditions that reduces transmission in summer, and we also estimate increased transmissibility of VoC.

Assessment tools in food safety and adherence to the sanitary protocol for coping with COVID-19 in food services

Food services, which must meet the sanitary standards for food production, needed to adapt to COVID-19 protocols in times of pandemic. In this context, the study of food safety assessment tools and sanitary protocols can contribute to the systematization of sanitary control actions and to the understanding how services have adapted to the new requirements. Thus, the present study aims to evaluate the relationships among the results of the assessment tools for food safety and adherence to the sanitary protocol for coping with COVID-19 in food services. Sanitary inspections were performed in 40 food services located in the center of the city of São Paulo - Brazil. Data were collected through the application of four checklists to evaluate the following: i. risk for FBD; ii. Good Handling Practices; iii. the structural requirements; and iv. The implementation of the COVID-19 sanitary protocol. The risk assessment tool was interpreted using a risk score, with each item weighted according to the risk for FBD. The results of the other tools were evaluated using the overall percentage of violated items. The results showed the predominance of high risk of GHP in the food services evaluated and a high percentage of violation of Good Handling Practices and structural requirements. The percentage of violation of the COVID-19 health protocol was moderate in most establishments. The degree of risk showed a high positive correlation with Good Handling Practices violations (Spearman ρ = 0.73; p < 0.001) and structural requirements (Spearman ρ = 0.63; p < 0.001). Regarding the tool for assessing adherence to the COVID-19 sanitary protocol, a moderate correlation was found with the violations of Good Handling Practices (Spearman ρ = 0.65; p < 0.001), with an emphasis on the thematic block relevant to food handlers. This discussion of the relationships among the results of the evaluation tools and their measurements may therefore be useful for improving the application of these tools by professionals involved in inspection activities, allowing the greater systematization of sanitary control actions and contributing to reduced risk of FBD.

Spatial spread of COVID-19 during the early pandemic phase in Italy

Quantifying the potential spatial spread of an infectious pathogen is key to defining effective containment and control strategies. The aim of this study is to estimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at different distances in Italy before the first regional lockdown was imposed, identifying important sources of national spreading. To do this, we leverage on a probabilistic model applied to daily symptomatic cases retrospectively ascertained in each Italian municipality with symptom onset between January 28 and March 7, 2020. Results are validated using a multi-patch dynamic transmission model reproducing the spatiotemporal distribution of identified cases. Our results show that the contribution of short-distance ( ≤ 10 k m ) transmission increased from less than 40% in the last week of January to more than 80% in the first week of March 2020. On March 7, 2020, that is the day before the first regional lockdown was imposed, more than 200 local transmission foci were contributing to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. At the time, isolation measures imposed only on municipalities with at least ten ascertained cases would have left uncontrolled more than 75% of spillover transmission from the already affected municipalities. In early March, national-wide restrictions were required to curb short-distance transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy.

Factors influencing CDC- recommended preventative behaviors through the COVID-19 pandemic in college students

Objective: To understand how student perceptions of physical health and generalized concern about infection influenced engagement in COVID-19 preventive behaviors. Participants: 418 full-time undergraduate and graduate students attending a public university in South Carolina, USA. Methods: A self-administered survey was distributed during the 2020-2021 academic year. The health belief model, structural equation modeling, and regression methods were used to evaluate associations between students' perceived physical health and the use of CDC-recommended mitigation strategies. Results: Our findings suggest that an individual's perception of their own physical health impacted engagement in preventive behaviors by influencing concerns about disease severity (p = 0.01) and susceptibility (p = 0.03). However, perceived physical health was not associated with perceived benefits (p = 0.21), barriers (p = 0.57), or self-efficacy (p = 0.62) of mitigation strategies. Conclusions: Intrapersonal factors may play a strong role in the way a student undertakes disease control and prevention.

Ethical implications of COVID-19 management-is freedom a desired aim, or a desired means to an end?

Most developed societies managed, due to their prosperity and resource abundance, to structure relationships among free individuals in such a way to leave them fundamentally unstructured, according to the free market principle. As the pandemic illustrated well, this lack of structure when facing collective threats makes it impossible to collectively and proportionately assess and manage its implications and consequences. This may be particularly precarious when introducing comprehensive, monitoring and tracking, surveillance systems dependent on the vaccination status of the individual. If our previously shared aims were successfully and collectively enacted with the greatest of costs, is it permissible that the degree of personal freedom is a commodity, and everyone is a compulsory participant? The need to control one's COVID-19 status allows the individual to become legally free from excessive enactment of sovereignty of the state. Should these rights be regulated by the free market?

Evaluation of angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), angiotensin II (Ang II), miR-141-3p, and miR-421 levels in SARS-CoV-2 patients: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly contagious virus that uses angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), a pivotal member of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS), as its cell-entry receptor. Another member of the RAS, angiotensin II (Ang II), is the major biologically active component in this system. There is growing evidence suggesting that serum miRNAs could serve as prognostic biomarkers for SARS-CoV-2 infection and regulate ACE2 expression. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the changes in the serum levels of sACE2 and Ang II, as well as the expression level of miR-141-3p and miR-421 in SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative subjects.

METHODS

In the present study, the serum levels of sACE2 and Ang II were measured in 94 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients and 94 SARS-CoV-2 negative subjects with some symptoms similar to those of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients using the ELISA method. In addition, the expression level of miR-141-3p and miR-421 as ACE2 regulators and biomarkers was evaluated using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) method.

RESULTS

The mean serum sACE2 concentration in the SARS-CoV-2-positive group was 3.268 ± 0.410 ng/ml, whereas in the SARS-CoV-2 negative group, it was 3.564 ± 0.437 ng/ml. Additionally, the mean serum Ang II level in the SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative groups were 60.67 ± 6.192 ng/L and 67.97 ± 6.837 ng/L, respectively. However, there was no significant difference in the serum levels of sACE2 (P value: 0.516) and Ang II (P value: 0.134) between the SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative groups. Meanwhile, our findings indicated that the expression levels of miR-141-3p and miR-421 in SARS-CoV-2 positive group were significantly lower and higher than SARS-CoV-2 negative group, respectively (P value < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, the results of this study showed that the serum levels of sACE2 and Ang II in SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative subjects were not significantly different, but the expression levels of miR-141-3p and miR-421 were altered in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients which need more investigation to be used as biomarkers for COVID-19 diagnosis.

Identifying and overcoming COVID-19 vaccination impediments using Bayesian data mining techniques

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly reshaped human life. The development of COVID-19 vaccines has offered a semblance of normalcy. However, obstacles to vaccination have led to substantial loss of life and economic burdens. In this study, we analyze data from a prominent health insurance provider in the United States to uncover the underlying reasons behind the inability, refusal, or hesitancy to receive vaccinations. Our research proposes a methodology for pinpointing affected population groups and suggests strategies to mitigate vaccination barriers and hesitations. Furthermore, we estimate potential cost savings resulting from the implementation of these strategies. To achieve our objectives, we employed Bayesian data mining methods to streamline data dimensions and identify significant variables (features) influencing vaccination decisions. Comparative analysis reveals that the Bayesian method outperforms cutting-edge alternatives, demonstrating superior performance.

Workplace interventions to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection outside of healthcare settings

BACKGROUND

Although many people infected with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) experience no or mild symptoms, some individuals can develop severe illness and may die, particularly older people and those with underlying medical problems. Providing evidence-based interventions to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection has become more urgent with the potential psychological toll imposed by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Controlling exposures to occupational hazards is the fundamental method of protecting workers. When it comes to the transmission of viruses, workplaces should first consider control measures that can potentially have the most significant impact. According to the hierarchy of controls, one should first consider elimination (and substitution), then engineering controls, administrative controls, and lastly, personal protective equipment. This is the first update of a Cochrane review published 6 May 2022, with one new study added.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of interventions in non-healthcare-related workplaces aimed at reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to other interventions or no intervention.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science Core Collections, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register, World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease, ClinicalTrials.gov, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and medRxiv to 13 April 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies of interventions. We included adult workers, both those who come into close contact with clients or customers (e.g. public-facing employees, such as cashiers or taxi drivers), and those who do not, but who could be infected by coworkers. We excluded studies involving healthcare workers. We included any intervention to prevent or reduce workers' exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in the workplace, defining categories of intervention according to the hierarchy of hazard controls (i.e. elimination; engineering controls; administrative controls; personal protective equipment).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection (or other respiratory viruses), SARS-CoV-2-related mortality, adverse events, and absenteeism from work. Our secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, quality of life, hospitalisation, and uptake, acceptability, or adherence to strategies. We used the Cochrane RoB 2 tool to assess risk of bias, and GRADE methods to evaluate the certainty of evidence for each outcome.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 2 studies including a total of 16,014 participants. Elimination-of-exposure interventions We included one study examining an intervention that focused on elimination of hazards, which was an open-label, cluster-randomised, non-inferiority trial, conducted in England in 2021. The study compared standard 10-day self-isolation after contact with an infected person to a new strategy of daily rapid antigen testing and staying at work if the test is negative (test-based attendance). The trialists hypothesised that this would lead to a similar rate of infections, but lower COVID-related absence. Staff (N = 11,798) working at 76 schools were assigned to standard isolation, and staff (N = 12,229) working at 86 schools were assigned to the test-based attendance strategy. The results between test-based attendance and standard 10-day self-isolation were inconclusive for the rate of symptomatic polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection (rate ratio (RR) 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74 to 2.21; 1 study; very low-certainty evidence). The results between test-based attendance and standard 10-day self-isolation were inconclusive for the rate of any PCR-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 1.35, 95% CI 0.82 to 2.21; 1 study; very low-certainty evidence). COVID-related absenteeism rates were 3704 absence days in 566,502 days-at-risk (6.5 per 1000 working days) in the control group and 2932 per 539,805 days-at-risk (5.4 per 1000 working days) in the intervention group (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.25). We downgraded the certainty of the evidence to low due to imprecision. Uptake of the intervention was 71% in the intervention group, but not reported for the control intervention. The trial did not measure our other outcomes of SARS-CoV-2-related mortality, adverse events, all-cause mortality, quality of life, or hospitalisation. We found seven ongoing studies using elimination-of-hazard strategies, six RCTs and one non-randomised trial. Administrative control interventions We found one ongoing RCT that aims to evaluate the efficacy of the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine in preventing COVID-19 infection and reducing disease severity. Combinations of eligible interventions We included one non-randomised study examining a combination of elimination of hazards, administrative controls, and personal protective equipment. The study was conducted in two large retail companies in Italy in 2020. The study compared a safety operating protocol, measurement of body temperature and oxygen saturation upon entry, and a SARS-CoV-2 test strategy with a minimum activity protocol. Both groups received protective equipment. All employees working at the companies during the study period were included: 1987 in the intervention company and 1798 in the control company. The study did not report an outcome of interest for this systematic review. Other intervention categories We did not find any studies in this category.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We are uncertain whether a test-based attendance policy affects rates of PCR-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection (any infection; symptomatic infection) compared to standard 10-day self-isolation amongst school and college staff. A test-based attendance policy may result in little to no difference in absenteeism rates compared to standard 10-day self-isolation. The non-randomised study included in our updated search did not report any outcome of interest for this Cochrane review. As a large part of the population is exposed in the case of a pandemic, an apparently small relative effect that would not be worthwhile from the individual perspective may still affect many people, and thus become an important absolute effect from the enterprise or societal perspective. The included RCT did not report on any of our other primary outcomes (i.e. SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and adverse events). We identified no completed studies on any other interventions specified in this review; however, eight eligible studies are ongoing. More controlled studies are needed on testing and isolation strategies, and working from home, as these have important implications for work organisations.

Factors Influencing Compliance With Social Distancing as a Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Before Vaccine Availability During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Study in South Korea

This study aimed to identify factors influencing compliance with social distancing, a key nonpharmaceutical intervention during the early stages of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The study population comprised 182 758 Koreans who participated in the 2020 Community Health Survey. Personal characteristics were classified into sociodemographic, health behavioral, and psychosocial factors, and factors associated with social distancing compliance were identified. Health behaviors and psychosocial factors were highly related to compliance with social distancing. Approximately 13% of smokers were less likely to practice physical distancing and 50% of high-risk drinkers were less likely to limit going out or attending gatherings and events. Higher concern about COVID-19 and a more positive perception of the government's response policy were associated with a higher compliance with social distancing. Strategic public health policies considering the characteristics of the public are needed to enhance compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions during disease outbreaks lacking effective treatments and vaccines.

Relationship Between Infection or Close Contact With COVID-19 and Workplace Mistreatment Among Japanese Workers: A Cross-sectional Study

OBJECTIVE

Discriminatory treatment against those with emerging infection is a long-standing problem. The present study investigates whether workers infected or in close contact with COVID-19 were susceptible to workplace mistreatment during the pandemic in Japan.

METHODS

This Internet-based cross-sectional study analyzed a total of 18,170 workers aged 20 to 60 years in Japan in December 2020. Odds ratios (ORs) for workplace mistreatment were estimated.

RESULTS

For workers with close contact or infection, ORs for workplace mistreatment in a model adjusted for socioeconomic factors were 7.64 (95% CI: 5.52-10.6, P < 0.001) and 10.7 (95% CI: 8.44-13.6, P < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Workers with infection or close contact were significantly more likely to experience workplace mistreatment. Actions against workplace mistreatment for workers with emerging infection are still required.

Systematic review of empiric studies on lockdowns, workplace closures, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions in non-healthcare workplaces during the initial year of the COVID-19 pandemic: benefits and selected unintended consequences

BACKGROUND

We conducted a systematic review aimed to evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions within non-healthcare workplaces and community-level workplace closures and lockdowns on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, selected mental disorders, and employment outcomes in workers or the general population.

METHODS

The inclusion criteria included randomized controlled trials and non-randomized studies of interventions. The exclusion criteria included modeling studies. Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, and other databases from January 1, 2020, through May 11, 2021. Risk of bias was assessed using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool. Meta-analysis and sign tests were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 60 observational studies met the inclusion criteria. There were 40 studies on COVID-19 outcomes, 15 on anxiety and depression symptoms, and five on unemployment and labor force participation. There was a paucity of studies on physical distancing, physical barriers, and symptom and temperature screening within workplaces. The sign test indicated that lockdown reduced COVID-19 incidence or case growth rate (23 studies, p < 0.001), reproduction number (11 studies, p < 0.001), and COVID-19 mortality or death growth rate (seven studies, p < 0.05) in the general population. Lockdown did not have any effect on anxiety symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = -0.02, 95% CI: -0.06, 0.02). Lockdown had a small effect on increasing depression symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.21), but publication bias could account for the observed effect. Lockdown increased unemployment (pooled mean difference = 4.48 percentage points, 95% CI: 1.79, 7.17) and decreased labor force participation (pooled mean difference = -2.46 percentage points, 95% CI: -3.16, -1.77). The risk of bias for most of the studies on COVID-19 or employment outcomes was moderate or serious. The risk of bias for the studies on anxiety or depression symptoms was serious or critical.

CONCLUSIONS

Empiric studies indicated that lockdown reduced the impact of COVID-19, but that it had notable unwanted effects. There is a pronounced paucity of studies on the effect of interventions within still-open workplaces. It is important for countries that implement lockdown in future pandemics to consider strategies to mitigate these unintended consequences.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration # CRD42020182660.

Psychological well-being of healthcare workers during COVID-19 in a mental health institution

INTRODUCTION

This study examined the psychological wellbeing of Healthcare Workers (HCWs) during COVID-19 in a mental health setting, associations of psychosocial wellbeing with coping style, and ways that organisations can mitigate the psychosocial burden on HCWs.

METHODS

Thirty-seven Mental HCWs (MHCWs) from infected and non-infected wards (control group), were recruited and assessed at three timepoints. Psychological wellbeing, perceived cohesion, and coping style (Brief-COPE) were assessed. Reports on individual coping and feedback on the organisation were collected through in-depth interview. Comparison between infected and non-infected wards, as well as comparison of psychosocial measures and perceived cohesion, across the three timepoints were made. As there were no significant changes in coping styles across the timepoints, Timepoint 1 (T1) coping style was used to correlate with the psychosocial measures across all timepoints. Thematic analysis was used for qualitative data.

RESULTS

MHCWs from infected wards reported significantly higher levels of stress, χ2(1) = 6.74, p = 0.009, effect size: medium (ε2 = 0.198), and more severe sleep disturbance (PSQI), χ2(1) = 6.20, p = 0.013, effect size: medium (ε2 = 0.182), as compared to the control group at T2. They also engaged in more problem-focused coping (T2 and T3) and emotion-focused coping (T2). As expected, negative coping style was correlated with negative outcomes except problem-focused coping that was correlated with both negative (sleep disturbance and anxiety symptoms) and positive outcomes (wellbeing). Emotion-focused coping was moderately correlated (Tb = 0.348, p<0.017) with higher levels of wellbeing at T2. Thematic analyses revealed MHCWs felt supported by the responsiveness of the institution, emotional and informational support, and the availability from direct leaders, presence of team and hospital leaders on the ground, helped build trust and confidence in the leadership.

CONCLUSIONS

MHCWs experienced significantly higher levels of stress and sleep disturbance during COVID-19. The ways that organizations can offset the psychological burden of pandemics on MHCWs are discussed.

Impact of Covid -19 incidence rate and government-initiated risk communication measures on individual's NPI practices

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) are the most widely recognized public health measures recognized globally to prevent the spread of Covid-19. NPIs' effectiveness may depend on the type, combination of applied interventions, and the level of proper public compliance with the NPIs. The expected outcome of behavioural practices varies relative to the intervention duration.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the trend of community compliance to NPI with Covid-19 incidence and government-initiated interventions, and its variation by residence and sociodemographic characteristics of people.

METHODS

A weekly non-participatory field survey on individuals' NPI practices was observed from the 41st epidemiological week of October 5th, 2020, to the 26th epidemiological week of July 4th, 2021, a total of 39 weeks. The survey covered all 14 regional and national capital cities in Ethiopia. Data collection for the three NPI behaviours (i.e., respiratory hygiene, hand hygiene, and physical distance) was managed weekly at eight public service locations using the Open Data Kit (ODK) tool. The Covid- 19 incidence data and public health measures information from August 3rd, 2020 to July 4th, 2021 were obtained from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI).

RESULTS

More than 180,000 individuals were observed for their NPI practice, with an average of 5,000 observations in a week. About 43% of the observations were made in Addis Ababa, 56% were male and 75% were middle age group (18-50 years). The overall level of NPI compliance was high at the beginning of the observation then peaked around the 13th- 15th epidemiological weeks then declined during the rest of the weeks. The peak NPI compliance periods followed the high Covid-19 death incidence and government-initiated intensive public health measures weeks. Respiratory hygiene had the highest compliance above 41% whereas hand hygiene was the lowest (4%). There was a significant difference between residents of the capital city and regional cities in their level of compliance with NPI. Females comply more than males, and individuals had increased NPI compliance at the bank service and workplaces compared to those in the transport services at P = 0.000.

CONCLUSION

An increased level of compliance with NPI was observed following intensive government-initiated Covid-19 prevention measures and an increased Covid-19 death incidence. Therefore, the intensity of government-initiated risk communication and public advocacy programs should be strengthened, possibly for similar respiratory disease pandemics in the future.

Exposure to urban green spaces and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from two low and lower-middle-income countries

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on mental health globally, with limited access to mental health care affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) the most. In response, alternative strategies to support mental health have been necessary, with access to green spaces being a potential solution. While studies have highlighted the role of green spaces in promoting mental health during pandemic lockdowns, few studies have focused on the role of green spaces in mental health recovery after lockdowns. This study investigated changes in green space access and associations with mental health recovery in Bangladesh and Egypt across the pandemic.

Methods

An online survey was conducted between January and April 2021 after the first lockdown was lifted in Bangladesh (n = 556) and Egypt (n = 660). We evaluated indoor and outdoor greenery, including the number of household plants, window views, and duration of outdoor visits. The quantity of greenness was estimated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). This index was estimated using satellite images with a resolution of 10x10m during the survey period (January-April 2021) with Sentinel-2 satellite in the Google Earth Engine platform. We calculated averages within 250m, 300m, 500m and 1000m buffers of the survey check-in locations using ArcGIS 10.3. Multiple linear regression models were used to evaluate relationships between changes in natural exposure and changes in mental health.

Results

The results showed that mental health improved in both countries after the lockdown period. People in both countries increased their time spent outdoors in green spaces after the lockdown period, and these increases in time outdoors were associated with improved mental health. Unexpectedly, changes in the number of indoor plants after the lockdown period were associated with contrasting mental health outcomes; more plants translated to increased anxiety and decreased depression. Refocusing lives after the pandemic on areas other than maintaining indoor plants may assist with worrying and feeling panicked. Still, indoor plants may assist with depressive symptoms for people remaining isolated.

Conclusion

These findings have important implications for policymakers and urban planners in LMICs, highlighting the need to increase access to natural environments in urban areas to improve mental health and well-being in public health emergencies.

Evaluating the dynamic interplay of social distancing policies regarding airborne pathogens through a temporal interaction-driven model that uses real-world and synthetic data

OBJECTIVE

The recent SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has exhibited diverse patterns of spread across countries and communities, emphasizing the need to consider the underlying population dynamics in modeling its progression and the importance of evaluating the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in combating viral transmission within human communities. Such an understanding requires accurate modeling of the interplay between the community dynamics and the disease propagation dynamics within the community.

METHODS

We build on an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks that we have defined. Using the model, we evaluate the effectiveness of temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal social distancing policies. Temporal social distancing involves a pure dilation of the timeline while preserving individual activity potential and thus prolonging the period of interaction; spatial distancing corresponds to social distancing pods; and spatiotemporal distancing pertains to the situation in which fixed subgroups of the overall group meet at alternate times. We evaluate these social distancing policies over real-world interactions' data and over history-preserving synthetic temporal random networks. Furthermore, we evaluate the policies for the disease's with different number of initial patients, corresponding to either the phase in the progression of the infection through a community or the number of patients infected together at the initial infection event. We expand our model to consider the exposure to viral load, which we correlate with the meetings' duration.

RESULTS

Our results demonstrate the superiority of decreasing social interactions (i.e., time dilation) within the community over partial isolation strategies, such as the spatial distancing pods and the spatiotemporal distancing strategy. In addition, we found that slow-spreading pathogens (i.e., pathogens that require a longer exposure to infect) spread roughly at the same rate as fast-spreading ones in highly active communities. This result is surprising since the pathogens may follow different paths. However, we demonstrate that the dilation of the timeline considerably slows the spread of the slower pathogens.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that the temporal dynamics of a community have a more significant effect on the spread of the disease than the characteristics of the spreading processes.

The moderating role of trust in pandemic-relevant institutions on the relation between pandemic fatigue and vaccination intentions

This research helps to clarify the relation between pandemic fatigue (PF) and vaccination intentions (VI). Theoretically, two patterns seem plausible. First, as with any other health protective measure, PF might reduce the motivation to get vaccinated. Second, PF might increase the motivation to get vaccinated because vaccination reduces the number of (other) health protective measure needed. We tested these two opposing predictions and further explored the moderating role of trust in pandemic-relevant institutions on the link between PF and VI in two large-scale survey studies from Denmark and Germany (collected between 2020 and 2021; total N > 22,000). Data was analyzed using multiple regression models. Analyses reveal a negative link between PF and VI that is less pronounced for people high in trust. Results remain stable when accounting for covariates and quadratic trends. Thus, trust might buffer the negative relation between PF and VI.

TAS2R38 haplotypes, COVID-19 infection, and symptomatology: a cross-sectional analysis of data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging

The TAS2R38 gene is well known for its function in bitter taste sensitivity, but evidence also suggests a role in innate immunity. TAS2R38 may be relevant in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but research findings are inconsistent. The objective of this study was to explore whether common TAS2R38 haplotypes are associated with COVID-19 infection and symptomatology in the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA). Data from the CLSA COVID-19 Questionnaire and Seroprevalence sub-studies were utilized with CLSA genetic data for common TAS2R38 haplotypes related to bitter taste sensitivity. Haplotypes were categorized into three diplotype groups: [P]AV homozygotes, [P]AV/[A]VI heterozygotes, and [A]VI homozygotes. No significant differences were observed between diplotypes and COVID-19 infection frequency. Among self-reported COVID-19 cases (n = 76), and in uncorrected exploratory analyses, heterozygotes were less likely to report experiencing sinus pain compared to [P]AV homozygotes. Among seroprevalence-confirmed cases (n = 177), [A]VI homozygotes were less likely to report experiencing a sore/scratchy throat compared to [P]AV homozygotes. However, both observations were non-significant upon correction for multiple testing. In this study, TAS2R38 haplotypes were not significantly associated with COVID-19 infection or symptomatology. Nevertheless, in light of some exploratory patterns and conflicting evidence, additional research is warranted to evaluate links between TAS2R38 and innate immunity.

Optimal social distancing in epidemic control: cost prioritization, adherence and insights into preparedness principles

The COVID-19 pandemic experience has highlighted the importance of developing general control principles to inform future pandemic preparedness based on the tension between the different control options, ranging from elimination to mitigation, and related costs. Similarly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing has been confirmed to be the critical response tool until vaccines become available. Open-loop optimal control of a transmission model for COVID-19 in one of its most aggressive outbreaks is used to identify the best social distancing policies aimed at balancing the direct epidemiological costs of a threatening epidemic with its indirect (i.e., societal level) costs arising from enduring control measures. In particular, we analyse how optimal social distancing varies according to three key policy factors, namely, the degree of prioritization of indirect costs, the adherence to control measures, and the timeliness of intervention. As the prioritization of indirect costs increases, (i) the corresponding optimal distancing policy suddenly switches from elimination to suppression and, finally, to mitigation; (ii) the "effective" mitigation region-where hospitals' overwhelming is prevented-is dramatically narrow and shows multiple control waves; and (iii) a delicate balance emerges, whereby low adherence and lack of timeliness inevitably force ineffective mitigation as the only accessible policy option. The present results show the importance of open-loop optimal control, which is traditionally absent in public health preparedness, for studying the suppression-mitigation trade-off and supplying robust preparedness guidelines.

Smart touchless human-machine interaction based on crystalline porous cages

The rise of touchless technology, driven by the recent pandemic, has transformed human-machine interaction (HMI). Projections indicate a substantial growth in the touchless technology market, nearly tripling from $13.6 billion in 2021 to an estimated $37.6 billion by 2026. In response to the pandemic-driven shift towards touchless technology, here we show an organic cage-based humidity sensor with remarkable humidity responsiveness, forming the basis for advanced touchless platforms in potential future HMI systems. This cage sensor boasts an ultrafast response/recovery time (1 s/3 s) and exceptional stability (over 800 cycles) across relative humidity (RH) changes from 11% to 95%. The crystal structure's 3D pore network and luxuriant water-absorbing functional groups both inside and outside of the cage contribute synergistically to superior humidity sensing. Demonstrating versatility, we showcase this cage in smart touchless control screens and touchless password managers, presenting cost-effective and easily processable applications of molecularly porous materials in touchless HMI.

Revisiting the complex time-varying effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in the United States

Introduction

Although the global COVID-19 emergency ended, the real-world effects of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the relative contribution of individual NPIs over time were poorly understood, limiting the mitigation of future potential epidemics.

Methods

Based on four large-scale datasets including epidemic parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and meteorological factors across 51 states in the United States from August 2020 to July 2022, we established a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spike-and-slab prior to assessing the time-varying effect of NPIs and vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 transmission and identifying important NPIs in the context of different variants pandemic.

Results

We found that (i) the empirical reduction in reproduction number attributable to integrated NPIs was 52.0% (95%CI: 44.4, 58.5%) by August and September 2020, whereas the reduction continuously decreased due to the relaxation of NPIs in following months; (ii) international travel restrictions, stay-at-home requirements, and restrictions on gathering size were important NPIs with the relative contribution higher than 12.5%; (iii) vaccination alone could not mitigate transmission when the fully vaccination coverage was less than 60%, but it could effectively synergize with NPIs; (iv) even with fully vaccination coverage >60%, combined use of NPIs and vaccination failed to reduce the reproduction number below 1 in many states by February 2022 because of elimination of above NPIs, following with a resurgence of COVID-19 after March 2022.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that NPIs and vaccination had a high synergy effect and eliminating NPIs should consider their relative effectiveness, vaccination coverage, and emerging variants.

Assessing community-level impacts of and responses to stay at home orders: The King County COVID-19 community study

BACKGROUND

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) of unprecedented scope and duration were implemented to limit community spread of COVID-19. There remains limited evidence about how these measures impacted the lived experience of affected communities. This study captured the early impacts and coping strategies implemented in King County, Washington, one of the first U.S. communities impacted by COVID-19.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional web-based survey of 793 English- and Spanish-speaking adult King County residents from March 18, 2020 -May 30, 2020, using voluntary response sampling. The survey included close- and open-ended questions on participant demographics, wellbeing, protective actions, and COVID-19-related concerns, including a freeform narrative response to describe the pandemic's individual-, family- and community-level impacts and associated coping strategies. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze close-ended questions, and qualitative content analysis methods were used to analyze free-form narrative responses.

RESULTS

The median age of participants was 45 years old, and 74% were female, 82% were White, and 6% were Hispanic/Latinx; 474 (60%) provided a qualitative narrative. Quantitative findings demonstrated that higher percentages of participants engaged in most types of COVID-19 protective behaviors after the stay-at-home order was implemented and schools and community spaces were closed, relative to before, and that participants tended to report greater concern about the pandemic's physical health or healthcare access impacts than the financial or social impacts. Qualitative data analysis described employment or financial impacts (56%) and vitality coping strategies (65%), intended to support health or positive functioning.

CONCLUSIONS

This study documented early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the NPIs implemented in response, as well as strategies employed to cope with those impacts, which can inform early-stage policy formation and intervention strategies to mitigate the negative impacts. Future research should explore the endurance and evolution of the early impacts and coping strategies throughout the multiyear pandemic.

Characterizing collective physical distancing in the U.S. during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic offers an unprecedented natural experiment providing insights into the emergence of collective behavioral changes of both exogenous (government mandated) and endogenous (spontaneous reaction to infection risks) origin. Here, we characterize collective physical distancing-mobility reductions, minimization of contacts, shortening of contact duration-in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the pre-vaccine era by analyzing de-identified, privacy-preserving location data for a panel of over 5.5 million anonymized, opted-in U.S. devices. We define five indicators of users' mobility and proximity to investigate how the emerging collective behavior deviates from typical pre-pandemic patterns during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze both the dramatic changes due to the government mandated mitigation policies and the more spontaneous societal adaptation into a new (physically distanced) normal in the fall 2020. Using the indicators here defined we show that: a) during the COVID-19 pandemic, collective physical distancing displayed different phases and was heterogeneous across geographies, b) metropolitan areas displayed stronger reductions in mobility and contacts than rural areas; c) stronger reductions in commuting patterns are observed in geographical areas with a higher share of teleworkable jobs; d) commuting volumes during and after the lockdown period negatively correlate with unemployment rates; and e) increases in contact indicators correlate with future values of new deaths at a lag consistent with epidemiological parameters and surveillance reporting delays. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that the framework and indicators here presented can be used to analyze large-scale social distancing phenomena, paving the way for their use in future pandemics to analyze and monitor the effects of pandemic mitigation plans at the national and international levels.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the psychological aspects and mental health of elite soccer athletes: a systematic review

Introduction

Investigation of the psychological impact on soccer athletes during the pandemic is essential given their unique challenges, including training disruptions and competition postponements. Understanding these effects will allow the development of specific strategies to preserve the mental health and performance of elite athletes, contributing to effective interventions with both short and long-term benefits.

Objective

To analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the psychological aspects and mental health of elite soccer athletes.

Method

The review adhered to PRISMA criteria, and the study protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42022341545). Searches were conducted until July 2023 in databases including Cochrane, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus, SPORTDiscus, and Web of Science. Only original, peer-reviewed studies in English, Portuguese, or Spanish assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the psychological aspects and mental health of elite soccer athletes were included.

Results

The search identified 1,055 records and 43 studies were included in this review between 2020 and 2023. In total, the sample included 16,321 soccer athletes of different age groups. Anxiety, depression, mood states, and mental well-being were the most investigated variables. Increased levels of anxiety, depression, and worsening mental well-being were observed in elite soccer athletes. Maintaining fitness during the pandemic showed positive results. Other variables, such as coping, resilience, and sleep quality monitoring, were less widely investigated. Evaluating methodological quality was considered regular for observational and experimental studies.

Conclusion

The study reveals a negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on elite soccer athletes, considering psychological aspects and their mental health, notably heightened anxiety and depression. Observational methods predominated, showing mood swings linked to individual characteristics and fitness maintenance efforts. Studies with better-designed methodological approaches and controlled experimental interventions are recommended in the future to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic on soccer players.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?, identifier (CRD42022341545).

Review of Israel's action and response during the COVID-19 pandemic and tabletop exercise for the evaluation of readiness and resilience-lessons learned 2020-2021

Background

Reevaluating response plans is essential to ensuring consistent readiness and resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic. The "During Action Review" and Tabletop (DART) methodology provides a retrospective and prospective assessment to inform the adaptive response. Israel introduced COVID-19 vaccinations in December 2020 and was the first country to implement booster vaccination to address waning immunity and surges caused by new variants. We assessed Israel's readiness and resilience related to COVID-19 response while capturing the pre-vaccination and vaccination periods.

Methods

A DART analysis was conducted between December 2020 and August 2021 among experts involved in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in Israel. During the retrospective stage, a role-based questionnaire and discussions were undertaken in a participant-led review of the response, focusing on epidemiology and surveillance, risk communication, and vaccines. The prospective stage included tabletop exercises to evaluate short to long-term simulated scenarios.

Results

Participants emphasized the pivotal role of Israel globally by sharing experiences with the pandemic, and vaccination. Perceived strengths included multi-sectoral collaboration between the Ministry of Health, healthcare providers, academia, military, and others, stretching capacities, expanding laboratory workload, and establishing/maintaining surveillance. The vaccine prioritization plan and strong infrastructure, including computerized databases, enabled real-life assessment of vaccine uptake and impact. Challenges included the need to change case definitions early on and insufficient staffing. Quarantine of patients and contacts was particularly challenging among underprivileged communities. Risk communication approaches need to focus more on creating norms in behavior. Trust issues and limited cooperation were noted, especially among ethnic and religious minorities. To ensure readiness and resiliency, participants recommended establishing a nationally deployed system for bringing in and acting upon feedback from the field, especially concerning risk communication and vaccines.

Conclusion

Our study appraised strengths and weaknesses of the COVID-19 pandemic response in Israel and led to concrete recommendations for adjusting responses and future similar events. An efficient response comprised multi-sectoral collaboration, policy design, infrastructure, care delivery, and mitigation measures, including vaccines, while risk communication, trust issues, and limited cooperation with minority groups were perceived as areas for action and intervention.

Multi-sectoral collaborations in selected countries of the Eastern Mediterranean region: assessment, enablers and missed opportunities from the COVID-19 pandemic response

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has emphasized the importance of multi-sectoral collaboration to respond effectively to public health emergencies. This study aims to generate evidence on the extent to which multi-sectoral collaborations have been employed in the macro-level responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in nine selected countries of the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR).

METHODS

The study employed in-depth analytical research design and was conducted in two phases. In the first phase, data were collected using a comprehensive documentation review. In the second phase, key informant interviews were conducted to validate findings from the first phase and gain additional insights into key barriers and facilitators. We analysed the macro-level pandemic responses across the following seven components of the analytical framework for multi-sectoral collaborations: (1) context and trigger; (2) leadership, institutional mechanisms and processes; (3) actors; (4) administration, funding and evaluation; (5) degree of multi-sectoral engagement; (6) impact; and (7) enabling factors.

RESULTS

Governments in the EMR have responded differently to the pandemic, with variations in reaction speed and strictness of implementation. While inter-ministerial committees were identified as the primary mechanism through which multi-sectoral action was established and implemented in the selected countries, there was a lack of clarity on how they functioned, particularly regarding the closeness of the cooperation and the working methods. Coordination structures lacked a clear mandate, joint costed action plan, sufficient resources and regular reporting on commitments. Furthermore, there was no evidence of robust communication planning both internally, focused on promoting internal consensual decision-making and managing power dynamics, and externally, concerning communication with the public. Across the selected countries, there was strong representation of different ministries in the pandemic response. Conversely, the contribution of non-state actors, including non-governmental organizations, civil society organizations, the private sector, the media and citizens, was relatively modest. Their involvement was more ad hoc, fragmented and largely self-initiated, particularly within the selected middle- and low income- countries of the EMR. Moreover, none of the countries incorporated explicit accountability framework or included anti-corruption and counter-fraud measures as integral components of their multi-sectoral plans and coordination mechanisms. Key enablers for the adoption of multi-sectoral collaborations have been identified, paving the way for more efficient responses in the future.

DISCUSSION

Mirroring global efforts, this study demonstrates that the selected countries in the EMR are making efforts to integrate multi-sectoral action into their pandemic responses. Nevertheless, persistent challenges and gaps remain, presenting untapped opportunities that governments can leverage to enhance the efficiency of future public health emergency responses.

Analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on consumption behaviors through recession and recovery patterns

The COVID-19 outbreak has dramatically impacted the economy, particularly consumption behaviors. Studies on how consumption responses to COVID-19 can be a powerful aid for urban consumption recovery. In this paper, based on a high-frequency consumption dataset from January 6, 2020, to April 28, 2020 covering 18 sectors and dataset from the corresponding lunar period in 2021, we look at how COVID-19 changed how people spent their money by looking at patterns of recession and recovery during the pandemic. Specifically, we first explore the recession-recovery pattern of national consumption and the effects of various policies and quantify it using regression methods. Then, recession-recovery patterns across cities are widely studied. We also reveal how consumption structures change during a pandemic and the relationship between patterns of change in citizens' consumption and the socioeconomic characteristics of cities. And the specific empirical analysis is provided through panel regression models. In general, national consumption represented a Vshaped pattern during the pandemic, experiencing a dramatic decline and a rapid rebound. Consumption is significantly inhibited by lockdown, while it is stimulated positively but gradually by easing policies. Consumption patterns at the city level are associated with socioeconomic characteristics. Cities with high-income groups experience a more significant decline, and cities with a high share of the secondary sector have a higher recovery rate in consumption. The consumption structure redistributes but does not fundamentally change. During the recession and early recovery phase, consumption related to basic living saw a significant rise, whereas leisure-related consumption dropped dramatically and recovered slowly. Our study can assist policymakers in implementing diversified market provisions and targeted lockdown policy adjustments for consumption recovery in cities with different socioeconomic backgrounds.

Incidence and Severity of COVID-19 in Relation to Anti-Receptor-Binding Domain IgG Antibody Level after COVID-19 Vaccination in Kidney Transplant Recipients

Kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) elicit an impaired immune response after COVID-19 vaccination; however, the exact clinical impact remains unclear. We therefore analyse the relationship between antibody levels after vaccination and the risk of COVID-19 in a large cohort of KTRs. All KTRs living in the Netherlands were invited to send a blood sample 28 days after their second COVID-19 vaccination for measurement of their IgG antibodies against the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (anti-RBD IgG). Information on COVID-19 was collected from the moment the blood sample was obtained until 6 months thereafter. Multivariable Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed to analyse which factors affected the occurrence and severity (i.e., hospitalization and/or death) of COVID-19. In total, 12,159 KTRs were approached, of whom 2885 were included in the analyses. Among those, 1578 (54.7%) became seropositive (i.e., anti-RBD IgG level >50 BAU/mL). Seropositivity was associated with a lower risk for COVID-19, also after adjusting for multiple confounders, including socio-economic status and adherence to COVID-19 restrictions (HR 0.37 (0.19-0.47), p = 0.005). When studied on a continuous scale, we observed a log-linear relationship between antibody level and the risk for COVID-19 (HR 0.52 (0.31-0.89), p = 0.02). Similar results were found for COVID-19 severity. In conclusion, antibody level after COVID-19 vaccination is associated in a log-linear manner with the occurrence and severity of COVID-19 in KTRs. This implies that if future vaccinations are indicated, the aim should be to reach for as high an antibody level as possible and not only seropositivity to protect this vulnerable patient group from disease.

Navigating the infodemic: strategies and policies for promoting health literacy and effective communication

The COVID-19 pandemic, with its vast impact illustrated by 770 million confirmed cases and 6.9 million deaths as of September 21, 2023, has exposed a critical challenge: the infodemic. Effective communication and health literacy are pivotal in addressing this crisis. This article emphasizes the urgency of combating health misinformation, highlighting its tangible impact on public health and social well-being. Trustworthy sources, especially government agencies and public health officials, played a central role in shaping public behavior. Clear, accurate, and consistent messaging became vital. Health literacy, a fundamental determinant of pandemic response, empowered individuals to understand and act upon health information. Approximately 36% of adults exhibited basic or below-basic health literacy skills, emphasizing its crucial role. Improving health literacy emerged as a strategic imperative, enabling informed choices and proactive health protection. The pandemic underscores the vital role of effective communication and health literacy in combating health misinformation, fostering informed decision-making, and safeguarding public health.

COVID-19 and working from home-related changes in physical activity in Sydney, Australia

ISSUES ADDRESSED

Evidence on how COVID-19 lockdowns impacted physical activity (PA) is mixed. This study explores changes in PA following initial mobility restrictions, and their subsequent relaxation, in a sample of Sydney (Australia) residents using a natural experiment methodology.

METHODS

Participants' health and travel behaviours were collected pre-pandemic in late 2019 (n = 1937), with follow-up waves during the pandemic in 2020 (n = 1706) and 2021 (n = 1514). Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyse changes in weekly duration of PA between the three waves.

RESULTS

Compared with pre-pandemic, average weekly PA increased in 2021 by 42.6 min total PA (p = .001), 16 min walking PA (p = .02), and 26.4 min moderate-vigorous PA (MVPA) (p = .003). However, average weekly sessions of PA decreased in 2020 and remained lower in 2021. For participants who were sufficiently active in 2019, weekly total PA (-66.3 min) MVPA (-43.8 min) decreased in 2020 compared to pre-pandemic. Conversely, among participants who were insufficiently active in 2019, average weekly PA increased in both 2020 (total PA, +99.1 min; walking PA, +46.4 min; MVPA +52.8 min) and 2021 (total PA, +117.8 min; walking PA, +58.4 min; MVPA +59.2 min), compared to 2019. Participants who did more work from home increased their average weekly total PA in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic (+45.3 min).

CONCLUSION

These findings reveal the complex variability in PA behaviour brought about by the pandemic. SO WHAT?: Strategies to support the population in achieving sufficient PA must focus on maintaining an appetite for PA as we move out of the pandemic and on promoting more frequent PA sessions.

Determining the nurses' perception regarding the effectiveness of COVID-19 protocols implemented in Eastern Province: Saudi Arabia

Background

The global impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been profound, affecting public health, the global economy, and overall human life. Past experiences with global pandemics underscored the significance of understanding the perception of HCWs and hospital staff in developing and implementing preventive measures. The World Health Organization (WHO) provided protocols to manage the spread of COVID-19 and assist healthcare workers and health systems globally in maintaining high-quality health services.

Objective

This study aims to assess nurses' perception, awareness, and compliance regarding the implementation of COVID-19 protocols and explore factors influencing their perception.

Methodology

A quantitative cross-sectional survey-based study was conducted, distributing a constructed survey among nurses in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.

Results

Out of 141 participants, most adhered to protocols such as hand sanitization, social distancing, and proper personal protective equipment (PPE) usage. The predominant age group among respondents was 31 to 40 years (n = 71, 50%). A significant portion of participants reported holding a bachelor's degree (n = 86, 61%), with only 14% possessing advanced degrees (n = 19). Nearly a third of the nurses in the study had accumulated 6 to 10 years of professional experience (n = 49, 34.8%). A noteworthy percentage of nurses were engaged in daily shifts exceeding 8 h (n = 98, 70%). Gender differences were observed, with females exhibiting a higher tendency to avoid shaking hands and social gatherings. Saudi nationals were more inclined to shake hands and engage in gatherings. Non-Saudi nurses and those aged between <25 to 40 years demonstrated proper donning/doffing practices. Nurses with over 6 years of experience avoided social gatherings, while those working >8 h adhered better to PPE usage, proper donning/doffing, and disposal of PPE in designated bins.

Conclusion

Understanding COVID-19 protocols is crucial for tailoring interventions and ensuring effective compliance with COVID-19 preventive measures among nurses. More efforts should be made toward preparing the healthcare nursing to deal with the outbreak. Preparing healthcare nursing with the right knowledge, attitude, and precautionary practices during the COVID-19 outbreak is very essential to patient and public safety.

The impact of spatial connectivity on NPIs effectiveness

BACKGROUND

France implemented a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to manage the COVID-19 pandemic between September 2020 and June 2021. These included a lockdown in the fall 2020 - the second since the start of the pandemic - to counteract the second wave, followed by a long period of nighttime curfew, and by a third lockdown in the spring 2021 against the Alpha wave. Interventions have so far been evaluated in isolation, neglecting the spatial connectivity between regions through mobility that may impact NPI effectiveness.

METHODS

Focusing on September 2020-June 2021, we developed a regionally-based epidemic metapopulation model informed by observed mobility fluxes from daily mobile phone data and fitted the model to regional hospital admissions. The model integrated data on vaccination and variants spread. Scenarios were designed to assess the impact of the Alpha variant, characterized by increased transmissibility and risk of hospitalization, of the vaccination campaign and alternative policy decisions.

RESULTS

The spatial model better captured the heterogeneity observed in the regional dynamics, compared to models neglecting inter-regional mobility. The third lockdown was similarly effective to the second lockdown after discounting for immunity, Alpha, and seasonality (51% vs 52% median regional reduction in the reproductive number R0, respectively). The 6pm nighttime curfew with bars and restaurants closed, implemented in January 2021, substantially reduced COVID-19 transmission. It initially led to 49% median regional reduction of R0, decreasing to 43% reduction by March 2021. In absence of vaccination, implemented interventions would have been insufficient against the Alpha wave. Counterfactual scenarios proposing a sequence of lockdowns in a stop-and-go fashion would have reduced hospitalizations and restriction days for low enough thresholds triggering and lifting restrictions.

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial connectivity induced by mobility impacted the effectiveness of interventions especially in regions with higher mobility rates. Early evening curfew with gastronomy sector closed allowed authorities to delay the third wave. Stop-and-go lockdowns could have substantially lowered both healthcare and societal burdens if implemented early enough, compared to the observed application of lockdown-curfew-lockdown, but likely at the expense of several labor sectors. These findings contribute to characterize the effectiveness of implemented strategies and improve pandemic preparedness.

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Simulation approach

Objectives

This paper aims to measure the impact of the implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) during the pandemic using simulation modeling.

Methods

To measure the impact of NPI, a hybrid agent-based and system dynamics simulation model was built and validated. Data were collected prospectively on a weekly basis. The core epidemiological model is based on a complex Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered and Dead model of epidemic dynamics. Reverse engineering was performed on a weekly basis throughout the study period as a mean for model validation which reported on four outcomes: total cases, active cases, ICU cases, and deaths cases. To measure the impact of each NPI, the observed values of active and total cases were captured and compared to the projected values of active and total cases from the simulation. To measure the impact of each NPI, the study period was divided into rounds of incubation periods (cycles of 14 days each). The behavioral change of the spread of the disease was interpreted as the impact of NPIs that occurred at the beginning of the cycle. The behavioral change was measured by the change in the initial reproduction rate (R0).

Results

After 18 weeks of the reverse engineering process, the model achieved a 0.4 % difference in total cases for prediction at the end of the study period. The results estimated that NPIs led to 64 % change in The R0. Our breakdown analysis of the impact of each NPI indicates that banning going to schools had the greatest impact on the infection reproduction rate (24 %).

Conclusion

We used hybrid simulation modeling to measure the impact of NPIs taken by the KSA government. The finding further supports the notion that early NPIs adoption can effectively limit the spread of COVID-19. It also supports using simulation for building mathematical modeling for epidemiological scenarios.

A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19

Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to account for evidence and uncertainty in the modeling of infectious diseases: An application to COVID-19

Infectious disease models can serve as critical tools to predict the development of cases and associated healthcare demand and to determine the set of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that is most effective in slowing the spread of an infectious agent. Current approaches to estimate NPI effects typically focus on relatively short time periods and either on the number of reported cases, deaths, intensive care occupancy, or hospital occupancy as a single indicator of disease transmission. In this work, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that integrates multiple outcomes and complementary sources of information in the estimation of the true and unknown number of infections while accounting for time-varying underreporting and weekday-specific delays in reported cases and deaths, allowing us to estimate the number of infections on a daily basis rather than having to smooth the data. To address dynamic changes occurring over long periods of time, we account for the spread of new variants, seasonality, and time-varying differences in host susceptibility. We implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to conduct Bayesian inference and illustrate the proposed approach with data on COVID-19 from 20 European countries. The approach shows good performance on simulated data and produces posterior predictions that show a good fit to reported cases, deaths, hospital, and intensive care occupancy.

Assessing the effectiveness of international government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures adopted by governments to control the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a Panel VAR model for the OECD countries, we test for Granger causality between the 7-day cumulative incidence, mortality rate, and government response indexes. Granger-type statistics reveal evidence that the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the measures taken by governments. However, limited or nonexistent evidence supports the reverse situation. This suggests that government measures were not highly effective in controlling the pandemic. While not implying total ineffectiveness, our results indicate a considerable lack of efficacy, emphasizing a lesson for governments to learn from and correct in preparation for similar events in the future.

COVID-19 risk mitigation in reopening mass cultural events: population-based observational study for the UK Events Research Programme in Liverpool City Region

OBJECTIVES

To understand severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission risks, perceived risks and the feasibility of risk mitigations from experimental mass cultural events before coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions were lifted.

DESIGN

Prospective, population-wide observational study.

SETTING

Four events (two nightclubs, an outdoor music festival and a business conference) open to Liverpool City Region UK residents, requiring a negative lateral flow test (LFT) within the 36 h before the event, but not requiring social distancing or face-coverings.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 12,256 individuals attending one or more events between 28 April and 2 May 2021.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

SARS-CoV-2 infections detected using audience self-swabbed (5-7 days post-event) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, with viral genomic analysis of cases, plus linked National Health Service COVID-19 testing data. Audience experiences were gathered via questionnaires, focus groups and social media. Indoor CO2 concentrations were monitored.

RESULTS

A total of 12 PCR-positive cases (likely 4 index, 8 primary or secondary), 10 from the nightclubs. Two further cases had positive LFTs but no PCR. A total of 11,896 (97.1%) participants with scanned tickets were matched to a negative pre-event LFT: 4972 (40.6%) returned a PCR within a week. CO2 concentrations showed areas for improving ventilation at the nightclubs. Population infection rates were low, yet with a concurrent outbreak of >50 linked cases around a local swimming pool without equivalent risk mitigations. Audience anxiety was low and enjoyment high.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed minor SARS-CoV-2 transmission and low perceived risks around events when prevalence was low and risk mitigations prominent. Partnership between audiences, event organisers and public health services, supported by information systems with real-time linked data, can improve health security for mass cultural events.

Global pain levels before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Physical pain has trended upward globally over the last decade. Here, we explore whether the COVID-19 pandemic modified this alarming trend. We used data from 146 countries worldwide (510,247 respondents) to examine whether pain levels changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Adjusted regressions across countries revealed that 33.3% of people were in pain in 2019, 32.8% in 2020, 32.5% in 2021, and 34.1% in 2022. The change in pain from 2019 to each of the pandemic years was not statistically significant. This suggests that, on average, there was no significant change in pain during the pandemic. However, from 2019 to 2020 there was a significant decline in pain among individuals over 55 years of age, those who were widowed, and those without children in the household. On a global scale, the COVID-19 pandemic was not associated with a significant change in pain levels. The concerning pre-pandemic elevation in global pain continued during this challenging period.