Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change

Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects

Large-scale afforestation programmes are generally presented as effective ways of increasing the terrestrial carbon sink while preserving water availability and biodiversity. Yet, a meta-analysis of both numerical and observational studies suggests that further research is needed to support this view. The use of inappropriate concepts (e.g., the biotic pump theory), the poor simulation of key processes (e.g., tree mortality, water use efficiency), and the limited model ability to capture recent observed trends (e.g., increasing water vapour deficit, terrestrial carbon uptake) should all draw our attention to the limitations of available theories and Earth System Models. Observations, either based on remote sensing or on early afforestation initiatives, also suggest potential trade-offs between terrestrial carbon uptake and water availability. There is thus a need to better monitor and physically understand the observed fluctuations of the terrestrial water and carbon cycles to promote suitable nature-based mitigation pathways depending on pre-existing vegetation, scale, as well as baseline and future climates.

Material design of biodegradable primary batteries: boosting operating voltage by substituting the hydrogen evolution reaction at the cathode

Transient primary batteries (TPBs) degrade after use without leaving harmful toxic substances, providing power sources for developing low-invasive and environmentally benign sensing platforms. Magnesium and zinc, both abundant on Earth, possess low anodic potentials and good biodegradability, making them useful as anode materials. However, molybdenum, a biodegradable metal, causes the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) at the cathode, reducing the operating voltage of cells because of its low cathodic potential. In this review, we examine recent material designs to increase the operating voltage by introducing alternative electrochemical reactions at the cathode, including the oxygen reduction reaction, metal-ion intercalation into transition metal oxides, and halogen ionization, all of which have higher cathodic potentials than the HER. After discussing the characteristics, constituents, and demonstration of TPBs, we conclude by exploring their potential as power sources for implants, wearables, and environmental sensing applications.

Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends

Reducing uncertainty in the response of the Amazon rainforest, a vital component of the Earth system, to future climate change is crucial for refining climate projections. Here we demonstrate an emergent constraint (EC) on the future response of the Amazon carbon cycle to climate change across CMIP6 Earth system models. Models that overestimate past global warming trends, tend to estimate hotter and drier future Amazon conditions, driven by northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean, causing greater Amazon carbon loss. The proposed EC changes the mean CMIP6 Amazon climate-induced carbon loss estimate (excluding CO2 fertilisation and land-use change impacts) from -0.27 (-0.59-0.05) to -0.16 (-0.42-0.10) GtC year-1 at 4.4 °C warming level, reducing the variance by 34%. This study implies that climate-induced carbon loss in the Amazon rainforest by 2100 is less than thought and that past global temperature trends can be used to refine regional carbon cycle projections.

Water deficit and storm disturbances co-regulate Amazon rainforest seasonality

Canopy leaf abundance of Amazon rainforests increases in the dry season but decreases in the wet season, contrary to earlier expectations of water stress adversely affecting plant functions. Drivers of this seasonality, particularly the role of water availability, remain debated. We introduce satellite-based ecophysiological indicators to demonstrate that Amazon rainforests are constrained by water during dry seasons despite light-driven canopy greening. Evidence includes a shifted partitioning of photosynthetically active radiation toward more isoprene emissions and synchronized declines in leaf and xylem water potentials. In addition, we find that convective storms attenuate light-driven ecosystem greening in the late dry season and then reverse to net leaf loss in the wet season, improving rainforest leaf area predictability by 24 to 31%. These findings highlight the susceptibility of Amazon rainforests to increasing risks of drought and windthrow disturbances under warming.

Integrated framework for dynamic conservation of bamboo forest in giant panda habitat under climate change

Climate change presents formidable challenges to forest biodiversity and carbon storage. Bamboo forests will be affected particularly in Southwest China's mountainous regions. Bamboo serves as not only a key food resource and habitat for giant panda Ailuropoda melanoleuca but also a potential carbon sink due to its rapid energy-to-matter conversion capability. We employ the MaxEnt model to project the distribution shifts of 20 giant panda foraged bamboo species in Sichuan Province under future climate scenarios, utilizing climate data of 30m resolution. Based on the changes in the diversity and distribution area of bamboo communities caused by climate change, the changing of giant pandas' food resources and the carbon storage of bamboo forests were calculated. The results indicated that the area of bamboo communities is projected to expand by 17.94%-60.88% more than now by the end of the 21st century. We analyzed the energy balance between the dietary needs of giant pandas and the energy provided by bamboo. We predicted that bamboo communities from 2000 to 2150 could support the continuous growth of the giant panda population (6533 wild individuals by 2140-2150 in an ideal state in Sichuan province). However, the species diversity and carbon storage of bamboo forests face out-of-sync fluctuations, both temporally and spatially. This is a critical issue for subalpine forest ecosystem management under climate change. Therefore, we propose a dynamic conservation management framework for giant panda habitats across spatial and temporal scales. This framework aims to facilitate the adaptation of subalpine forest ecosystems to climate change. This innovative approach, which integrates climate change into the conservation strategy for endangered species, contributes a conservation perspective to global climate action, highlighting the interconnectedness of biodiversity preservation and climate mitigation.

A large net carbon loss attributed to anthropogenic and natural disturbances in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation

The Amazon forest contains globally important carbon stocks, but in recent years, atmospheric measurements suggest that it has been releasing more carbon than it has absorbed because of deforestation and forest degradation. Accurately attributing the sources of carbon loss to forest degradation and natural disturbances remains a challenge because of the difficulty of classifying disturbances and simultaneously estimating carbon changes. We used a unique, randomized, repeated, very high-resolution airborne laser scanning survey to provide a direct, detailed, and high-resolution partitioning of aboveground carbon gains and losses in the Brazilian Arc of Deforestation. Our analysis revealed that disturbances directly attributed to human activity impacted 4.2% of the survey area while windthrows and other disturbances affected 2.7% and 14.7%, respectively. Extrapolating the lidar-based statistics to the study area (544,300 km2), we found that 24.1, 24.2, and 14.5 Tg C y-1 were lost through clearing, fires, and logging, respectively. The losses due to large windthrows (21.5 Tg C y-1) and other disturbances (50.3 Tg C y-1) were partially counterbalanced by forest growth (44.1 Tg C y-1). Our high-resolution estimates demonstrated a greater loss of carbon through forest degradation than through deforestation and a net loss of carbon of 90.5 ± 16.6 Tg C y-1 for the study region attributable to both anthropogenic and natural processes. This study highlights the role of forest degradation in the carbon balance for this critical region in the Earth system.

New tree height allometries derived from terrestrial laser scanning reveal substantial discrepancies with forest inventory methods in tropical rainforests

Tree allometric models, essential for monitoring and predicting terrestrial carbon stocks, are traditionally built on global databases with forest inventory measurements of stem diameter (D) and tree height (H). However, these databases often combine H measurements obtained through various measurement methods, each with distinct error patterns, affecting the resulting H:D allometries. In recent decades, terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has emerged as a widely accepted method for accurate, non-destructive tree structural measurements. This study used TLS data to evaluate the prediction accuracy of forest inventory-based H:D allometries and to develop more accurate pantropical allometries. We considered 19 tropical rainforest plots across four continents. Eleven plots had forest inventory and RIEGL VZ-400(i) TLS-based D and H data, allowing accuracy assessment of local forest inventory-based H:D allometries. Additionally, TLS-based data from 1951 trees from all 19 plots were used to create new pantropical H:D allometries for tropical rainforests. Our findings reveal that in most plots, forest inventory-based H:D allometries underestimated H compared with TLS-based allometries. For 30-metre-tall trees, these underestimations varied from -1.6 m (-5.3%) to -7.5 m (-25.4%). In the Malaysian plot with trees reaching up to 77 m in height, the underestimation was as much as -31.7 m (-41.3%). We propose a TLS-based pantropical H:D allometry, incorporating maximum climatological water deficit for site effects, with a mean uncertainty of 19.1% and a mean bias of -4.8%. While the mean uncertainty is roughly 2.3% greater than that of the Chave2014 model, this model demonstrates more consistent uncertainties across tree size and delivers less biased estimates of H (with a reduction of 8.23%). In summary, recognizing the errors in H measurements from forest inventory methods is vital, as they can propagate into the allometries they inform. This study underscores the potential of TLS for accurate H and D measurements in tropical rainforests, essential for refining tree allometries.

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10-90% range: 23-71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects across Brazilian biomes

We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within a spatio-temporal model. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil-a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.

Amazon forest biogeography predicts resilience and vulnerability to drought

Amazonia contains the most extensive tropical forests on Earth, but Amazon carbon sinks of atmospheric CO2 are declining, as deforestation and climate-change-associated droughts1-4 threaten to push these forests past a tipping point towards collapse5-8. Forests exhibit complex drought responses, indicating both resilience (photosynthetic greening) and vulnerability (browning and tree mortality), that are difficult to explain by climate variation alone9-17. Here we combine remotely sensed photosynthetic indices with ground-measured tree demography to identify mechanisms underlying drought resilience/vulnerability in different intact forest ecotopes18,19 (defined by water-table depth, soil fertility and texture, and vegetation characteristics). In higher-fertility southern Amazonia, drought response was structured by water-table depth, with resilient greening in shallow-water-table forests (where greater water availability heightened response to excess sunlight), contrasting with vulnerability (browning and excess tree mortality) over deeper water tables. Notably, the resilience of shallow-water-table forest weakened as drought lengthened. By contrast, lower-fertility northern Amazonia, with slower-growing but hardier trees (or, alternatively, tall forests, with deep-rooted water access), supported more-drought-resilient forests independent of water-table depth. This functional biogeography of drought response provides a framework for conservation decisions and improved predictions of heterogeneous forest responses to future climate changes, warning that Amazonia's most productive forests are also at greatest risk, and that longer/more frequent droughts are undermining multiple ecohydrological strategies and capacities for Amazon forest resilience.

Modeling the species occurrence probability and response of climate change on Himalayan Somalata plant under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

In this study, the current distribution probability of Ephedra gerardiana (Somalata), a medicinally potent species of the Himalayas, was assessed, and its spatial distribution change was forecasted until the year 2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here, we used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) on 274 spatially filtered occurrence data points accessed from GBIF and other publications, and 19 bioclimatic variables were used as predictors against the probability assessment. The area under the curve, Continuous Boyce Index, True Skill Statistics, and kappa values were used to evaluate and validate the model. It was observed that the SSP5-8.5, a fossil fuel-fed scenario, saw a maximum habitat decline for E. gerardiana driving its niche towards higher altitudes. Nepal Himalayas witnessed a maximum decline in suitable habitat for the species, whereas it gained area in Bhutan. In India, regions of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, and Sikkim saw a maximum negative response to climate change by the year 2100. Mean annual temperature, isothermality, diurnal temperature range, and precipitation seasonality are the most influential variables isolated by the model that contribute in defining the species' habitat. The results provide evidence of the effects of climate change on the distribution of endemic species in the study area under different scenarios of emissions and anthropogenic coupling. Certainly, the area of consideration encompasses several protected areas, which will become more vulnerable to increased variability of climate, and regulating their boundaries might become a necessary step to conserve the regions' biodiversity in the future.

Some bats are here: Reducing the Wallacean shortfall of bats in the amazon

The Amazon rainforest has approximately 23% of its sampled area dedicated to bats, making it one of the least sampled and most diverse regions for bats in Brazil. The lack of sampling results in a lack of knowledge regarding the accurate geographical distribution of bat species. This lack is referred to as the Wallacean shortfall, which should be addressed with primary data obtained from in situ collections. However, the use of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help alleviate this gap. The states of Pará and Acre are located in the Brazilian Amazon. So, our objective is to decrease the Wallacean shortfall concerning Amazonian bat species. To achieve this, we provide (i) a list of bat species sampled in the states of Pará and Acre in the last 5 years (2017 to 2022); (ii) the potential distribution of species considered as new occurrences for the region; and (iii) the potential distribution of species classified as Data Deficient (DD) and Near Threatened (NT) according to the IUCN classification. With 96 nights of collection and 129,600 m2h of mist netting, we obtained 75 bat species, with an estimated total of 94.78 species. Additionally, 21 species were considered as range extensions. The Brazilian Amazon region has a vast geographic expanse and few established research centers, resulting in a limited sampling of bats and other biological groups. Furthermore, we draw attention to the significant number of bat species with expanded geographical distributions, with 21 out of the 75 sampled species. This should be a reminder that primary biogeographic data is still necessary for the neotropical region.

Exogenous 5-Aminolevulinic acid improved low-temperature tolerance tomato seedling by regulating starch content and phenylalanine metabolism

Tomato is an important horticultural cash crop, and low-temperature stress has seriously affected the yield and quality of tomato. 5-Aminolevulinic acid (ALA) is widely used in agriculture as an efficient and harmless growth regulator. It is currently unclear whether exogenous ALA can cope with low-temperature stress by regulating tomato starch content and phenylalanine metabolism. In this study, exogenous ALA remarkably improved the low-temperature tolerance of tomato seedlings. RNA-sequencing results showed that exogenous ALA affected starch metabolism and phenylalanine metabolism in tomato seedling leaves under low-temperature stress. Subsequently, we used histochemical staining, observation of chloroplast microstructure, substance content determination, and qRT-PCR analysis to demonstrate that exogenous ALA could improve the low-temperature tolerance of tomato seedlings by regulating starch content and phenylalanine metabolism (SlPAL, SlPOD1, and SlPOD2). Simultaneously, we found that exogenous ALA induced the expression of SlMYBs and SlWRKYs under low-temperature stress. In addition, dual luciferase, yeast one hybrid, and electrophoretic mobility shift assays indicate that SlMYB4 and SlMYB88 could regulate the expression of SlPOD2 in phenylalanine metabolism. We demonstrated that exogenous ALA could improve the low-temperature tolerance of tomato seedlings by regulating starch content and phenylalanine metabolism.

The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features

In 2023 Amazonia experienced both historical drought and warm conditions. On October 26th 2023 the water levels at the port of Manaus reached its lowest record since 1902 (12.70 m). In this region, October monthly maximum and minimum temperature anomalies also surpassed previous record values registered in 2015 (+ 3 °C above the normal considering the 1981-2020 average). Here we show that this historical dry and warm situation in Amazonia is associated with two main atmospheric mechanisms: (i) the November 2022-February 2023 southern anomaly of vertical integrated moisture flux (VIMF), related to VIMF divergence and extreme rainfall deficit over southwestern Amazonia, and (ii) the June-August 2023 downward motion over northern Amazonia related to extreme rainfall deficit and warm conditions over this region. Anomalies of both atmospheric mechanisms reached record values during this event. The first mechanism is significantly correlated to negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific (November-February La Niña events). The second mechanism is significantly correlated to positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, related to the impacts of June-September El Niño on the Walker Circulation. While previous extreme droughts were linked to El Niño (warmer North Tropical Atlantic SST) during the austral summer (winter and spring), the transition from La Niña 2022-23 to El Niño 2023 appears to be a key climatic driver in this record-breaking dry and warm situation, combined to a widespread anomalous warming over the worldwide ocean.

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth's finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

A picture of artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) in Brazil and its mercury emissions and releases

This study presents a picture of ASGM in Brazil and prospective numbers on mercury emissions and releases in 2016, when the country declared production of about 90 tonnes of gold, of which circa 25 tonnes came from ASGM. However, it is also necessary to consider the illegal production of ASGM which is estimated to vary between 10% and eight times more than the legal production. The proposed method included: organization of spatial data on legal ASGM output, stakeholder identification and meetings, mercury metallurgical balance, quantitative measurement of mercury in the atmosphere and qualitative social aspects such as the miners' economic dependence on the managers and scenarios of illegal ASGM annual production. The main results revealed that the initial mercury (Hg)-gold (Au) production ratio was higher for the primary whole ore than for the concentrate secondary ore, which is the most frequent type of Brazilian ASGM. The amalgam filtering technique followed by mercury recovery is routine, decreasing the Hg releases to tailings ponds or to soil and water bodies. The mercury emissions by thermal decomposition of amalgam are independent of the initial mercury mass, depending only on the mercury in the amalgam and the (adequate) use or not of emission control systems. Illegal activities reduce the availability and proper use of these systems, resulting in higher emissions. Mercury emissions from ASGM in Brazil may increase the global mercury emissions estimates, while their mercury releases may represent a marginal increase. As the mercury emitted may be trapped by the rainforests added to the mercury released, the environmental contamination may pose health risks to Amazonian population, which requires immediate action.

An urgent call-to-action to protect the nonhuman primates and Indigenous Peoples of the Brazilian Amazon

Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis. Here, we examine the set of conservation challenges faced by the 100 primate species that inhabit the Brazilian Amazon, the largest remaining area of primary tropical rainforest in the world. The vast majority (86%) of Brazil's Amazonian primate species have declining populations. Primate population decline in Amazonia has been driven principally by deforestation related to the production of forest-risk commodities including soy and cattle ranching, the illegal logging and setting of fires, dam building, road and rail construction, hunting, mining, and the confiscation and conversion of Indigenous Peoples' traditional lands. In a spatial analysis of the Brazilian Amazon, we found that 75% of Indigenous Peoples' lands (IPLs) remained forested compared with 64% of Conservation Units (CUs) and 56% of other lands (OLs). In addition, primate species richness was significantly higher on IPLs than on CUs and OLs. Thus, safeguarding Indigenous Peoples' land rights, systems of knowledge, and human rights is one of the most effective ways to protect Amazonian primates and the conservation value of the ecosystems they inhabit. Intense public and political pressure is required and a global call-to-action is needed to encourage all Amazonian countries, especially Brazil, as well as citizens of consumer nations, to actively commit to changing business as usual, living more sustainably, and doing all they can to protect the Amazon. We end with a set of actions one can take to promote primate conservation in the Brazilian Amazon.

Evaluating forest depletion and structural change effects on environmental sustainability in Pakistan: Through the lens of the load capacity factor

The pace of species extinction and deforestation has increased dramatically due to the substantial increase in global environmental degradation. This trend is approaching the crucial temperature threshold of 2 °C and calls for more attention. Although previous research has observed the individual impacts of forest depletion, structural change, economic growth, and urbanization on various sustainability outcomes, there has been no previous research into their interrelationships with an emphasis on the load capacity factor (LCF). Furthermore, no previous study has examined the environmental impacts of the abovementioned variables by contrasting the results of LCF and CO2 emissions in Pakistan. Therefore, this research suggests a theoretical framework that integrates these concepts, provides a roadmap for an effective and sustainable mitigation strategy for Pakistan and compares LCF results with CO2 emissions. Using the time-series data from 1970 to 2021, a unique and sophisticated dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (DARDL) technique, the authors found that (i) a 1 % rise in forest depletion leads to a decline in load capacity factor by 0.026 %. (ii) A one per cent upsurge in structural change fosters environmental sustainability by raising the load capacity factor by 0.084 %. (iii) An increase of 1 % in economic growth dwindles the load capacity factor by 0.027 %. (iv) A one per cent surge in urbanization enhances the load capacity factor by 0.029 %. The findings suggest that Pakistan's Government should promote afforestation by emphasizing the constructive role of structural change in achieving environmental sustainability.

Characterization of groundwater storage changes in the Amazon River Basin based on downscaling of GRACE/GRACE-FO data with machine learning models

Groundwater storage changes in the Amazon River Basin (ARB) play an important role in the hydrological behavior of the region, with significant influence on climate variability and rainforest ecosystems. The GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite missions provide gravity anomalies from which it is possible to monitor changes in terrestrial water storage, albeit at low spatial resolution. This study downscaled GRACE and GRACE-FO data from machine learning models from 1° (110 km approx) to 0.25° (27.5 km approx). It estimated the spatiotemporal variability of terrestrial and groundwater storage anomalies between 2002 and 2021 for the Amazon River Basin. In parallel, the Random Forest and AdaBoost algorithms were compared and analyzed. The results reflected a good fit of the models with a very low error and a slight superiority in the predictions obtained by AdaBoost. On the predictions at 0.25°, spatial patterns associated with the strong influence on storage changes of some rivers and snow-capped mountains were identified, as well as an increase in the accuracy of the scaled data of the original ones. Positive long-term behavior was also obtained in terrestrial and groundwater storage of 14.26 ± 1.18 km3/yr and + 22.24 ± 1.18 km3/yr, respectively. Validation of the time series of groundwater anomalies to water levels in the monitoring wells obtained maximum correlation coefficients of 0.85 with confidence levels of 0.01. These results are promising for satellite information in water management, especially in regional monitoring of unconfined aquifers. The obtained data is stored in a dedicated repository (Satizábal-Alarcón et al., 2023).

Deforestation as an Anthropogenic Driver of Mercury Pollution

Deforestation reduces the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to take up toxic pollutant mercury (Hg) and enhances the release of secondary Hg from soils. The consequences of deforestation for Hg cycling are not currently considered by anthropogenic emission inventories or specifically addressed under the global Minamata Convention on Mercury. Using global Hg modeling constrained by field observations, we estimate that net Hg fluxes to the atmosphere due to deforestation are 217 Mg year-1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 134-1650 Mg year-1) for 2015, approximately 10% of global primary anthropogenic emissions. If deforestation of the Amazon rainforest continues at business-as-usual rates, net Hg emissions from the region will increase by 153 Mg year-1 by 2050 (CI: 97-418 Mg year-1), enhancing the transport and subsequent deposition of Hg to aquatic ecosystems. Substantial Hg emissions reductions are found for two potential cases of land use policies: conservation of the Amazon rainforest (92 Mg year-1, 95% CI: 59-234 Mg year-1) and global reforestation (98 Mg year-1, 95% CI: 64-449 Mg year-1). We conclude that deforestation-related emissions should be incorporated as an anthropogenic source in Hg inventories and that land use policy could be leveraged to address global Hg pollution.

Health psychology and climate change: time to address humanity's most existential crisis

Climate change is an ongoing and escalating health emergency. It threatens the health and wellbeing of billions of people, through extreme weather events, displacement, food insecurity, pathogenic diseases, societal destabilisation, and armed conflict. Climate change dwarfs all other challenges studied by health psychologists. The greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change disproportionately originate from the actions of wealthy populations in the Global North and are tied to excessive energy use and overconsumption driven by the pursuit of economic growth. Addressing this crisis requires significant societal transformations and individual behaviour change. Most of these changes will benefit not only the stability of the climate but will yield significant public health co-benefits. Because of their unique expertise and skills, health psychologists are urgently needed in crafting climate change mitigation responses. We propose specific ways in which health psychologists at all career stages can contribute, within the spheres of research, teaching, and policy making, and within organisations and as private citizens. As health psychologists, we cannot sit back and leave climate change to climate scientists. Climate change is a health emergency that results from human behaviour; hence it is in our power and responsibility to address it.

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1-3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework-the planetary commons-which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.

Long-term warming increased carbon sequestration capacity in a humid subtropical forest

Tropical and subtropical forests play a crucial role in global carbon (C) pools, and their responses to warming can significantly impact C-climate feedback and predictions of future global warming. Despite earth system models projecting reductions in land C storage with warming, the magnitude of this response varies greatly between models, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Here, we conducted a field ecosystem-level warming experiment in a subtropical forest in southern China, by translocating mesocosms (ecosystem composed of soils and plants) across 600 m elevation gradients with temperature gradients of 2.1°C (moderate warming), to explore the response of ecosystem C dynamics of the subtropical forest to continuous 6-year warming. Compared with the control, the ecosystem C stock decreased by 3.8% under the first year of 2.1°C warming; but increased by 13.4% by the sixth year of 2.1°C warming. The increased ecosystem C stock by the sixth year of warming was mainly attributed to a combination of sustained increased plant C stock due to the maintenance of a high plant growth rate and unchanged soil C stock. The unchanged soil C stock was driven by compensating and offsetting thermal adaptation of soil microorganisms (unresponsive soil respiration and enzyme activity, and more stable microbial community), increased plant C input, and inhibitory C loss (decreased C leaching and inhibited temperature sensitivity of soil respiration) from soil drying. These results suggest that the humid subtropical forest C pool would not necessarily diminish consistently under future long-term warming. We highlight that differential and asynchronous responses of plant and soil C processes over relatively long-term periods should be considered when predicting the effects of climate warming on ecosystem C dynamics of subtropical forests.

Reconfiguration of Amazon's connectivity in the climate system

With the recent increase in deforestation, forest fires, and regional temperatures, the concerns around the rapid and complete collapse of the Amazon rainforest ecosystem have heightened. The thresholds of deforestation and the temperature increase required for such a catastrophic event are still uncertain. However, our analysis presented here shows that signatures of changing Amazon are already apparent in historical climate data sets. Here, we extend the methods of climate network analysis and apply them to study the temporal evolution of the connectivity between the Amazon rainforest and the global climate system. We observe that the Amazon rainforest is losing short-range connectivity and gaining more long-range connections, indicating shifts in regional-scale processes. Using embeddings inspired by manifold learning, we show that the Amazon connectivity patterns have undergone a fundamental shift in the 21st century. By investigating edge-based network metrics on similar regions to the Amazon, we see the changing properties of the Amazon are noticeable in comparison. Furthermore, we simulate diffusion and random walks on these networks and observe a faster spread of perturbations from the Amazon in recent decades. Our methodology innovations can act as a template for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of regional climate change and its impact on global climate using the toolbox of climate network analysis.

The influence of Amazon River connectivity to littoral meanders on long-term carbon accumulation: A case study of Lake Yahuarcaca

The objective of this investigation is to evaluate the recent changes in the accumulation of organic matter and carbon on the Yahuarcaca lake system, by means of a multiproxy paleolimnological study. The methodology based on lithological descriptions of 210Pb/137Cs-dated cores allowed us to infer the centennial sedimentation processes and carbon accumulation rates. Sedimentary facies, grain size, magnetic susceptibility, loss on ignition, carbonate, chlorophyll derivatives, stable isotopes of δ13C/δ15N, and carbon accumulation rate were analyzed. LANDSAT and photographic record of satellite images were used to reconstruct the historical geomorphological evolution of the Lake. Sediment cores yielded basal ages of 1827 and 1828 Common Era, representing the formation of lakes as a consequence of the Amazon meandering process. Two main paleolimnological stages were identified, with a boundary transition set at 1980-1984 Common Era, attributed to the geomorphological closure and complete lake separation from the Amazon and the onset of full lentic conditions. This inference was mainly based on both sharp increases in the sedimentation rate from 0.2 to >1 cm yr-1 and carbon accumulation that increased seven-fold (from 2 to 14 g m-2 yr-1) from 1980 to 1984 Common Era. The flood-pulse and connection to the Amazon defined the magnitude of organic inputs, where areas more distant/isolated from the river showed higher accumulation of carbon from autochthonous production, with an average of 8.9 % and 1.10 g m-2 yr-1 (carbon accumulation rate). Those areas closer and connected to the river were strongly related to the interannual hydrological variability, with a lower mean carbon content (5.9 %) and 0.73 g m-2 yr-1 (carbon accumulation rate). We concluded that carbon burial was highest within the most distant spot from the Amazon River because of the weaker connection to the river itself and the more stable lentic conditions for net sedimentation.

Measuring the cross-border spillover effects and telecoupling processes of ecosystem services in Western China

Ecosystem services provide the basic elements for global economic development. In the context of the deepening global integration process, countries and regions are increasingly connected, resulting in a series of cross-country, cross-regional, multi-scale socio-economic-environmental impacts, these new situations and changes require a multi-site, two-way, and cross-temporal and spatial scale comprehensive study of "the relationship between ecosystem services and humans". Based on this, we apply a telecoupling synthesis framework to explore the socio-economic and eco-environmental interactions of ecosystem service spillover effects. Results show that (1) the spillover effect of ecosystem services in western China is significant. More than 66% of ecosystem services spillover to eastern China provinces, and more than 40% of ecosystem services spillover to countries in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia, resulting in a total of 679 million people benefiting from the spillover effect. (2) There are also multiple telecoupling processes between the ecosystem service spillovers in the ecologically fragile areas in western China and the rest of the world. In combination with the scenario simulation of the InVEST model, the services such as water supply, soil retention, flood mitigation, and food supply have significant impacts on sustainable development and human well-being in Asia and even the world. (3) The positive feedback effect of telecoupling is critical to the protection of the ecological environment as well as the improvement of people's livelihood and well-being in Western China's ecologically fragile areas. Therefore, we propose strengthening ecological compensation cooperation between local governments and implementing compensatory transfer payments between upstream and downstream. Simultaneously, international cooperation must be strengthened, and an ecological compensation transfer mechanism with beneficiary countries must be established, while the cross-regional flow of ecosystem services must be maintained. This study provides an example for the "ecosystem services and human relations" in multiple places, two directions and across time and space scales, and also practical reference significance for China implementation of projects such as the "the Belt and Road" initiative and transnational and cross regional resource allocation.

'From the sky to the ground': fishers' knowledge, landscape analysis and hydrological data indicate long-term environmental changes in Amazonian clear water rivers

Fishers possess detailed local ecological knowledge (LEK) which can be a valuable resource for tracking long-term environmental changes in less studied tropical rivers. Our goal was to investigate such changes in three clear water rivers in the Brazilian Amazon, focusing on hydrology, water quality and land cover. Additionally, we aimed to compare these changes among three rivers (Trombetas, Tapajós and Tocantins) representing a potential gradient of environmental changes. We interviewed 129 fishers (67 in Tapajós, 33 in Tocantins and 29 in Trombetas), and analyzed temporal series on land cover and hydrology respectively through maps produced by the project MapBiomas, and data from the Brazilian National Water Agency across the last 34 years (from 1985 to 2019). The complementary analyses of these three databases (mapping, hydrological data and fishers' knowledge) revealed environmental changes in the studied rivers. The maps showed a gradient of anthropic changes on land cover, from the less altered Trombetas river, the moderately altered Tapajós and the more intensely changed landscape in the Tocantins River. Fishers from the Tocantins River reported a greater variety of negative changes in water quality related to anthropic actions, such as dams, deforestation, and pollution. Additionally, most fishers indicated hydrological changes making the Tocantins River drier in more recent years, which would cause negative effects on fish populations. In the Tapajós River, fishers mentioned more varied hydrological patterns and negative effects on water quality linked to mining activities, whereas in Trombetas fishers perceived increased floods. The changes mentioned by the interviewed fishers matched observed trends from hydrological data indicating a trend of increasing droughts in the more impacted Tocantins River. Fishers' knowledge provided exclusive 'on the ground' data to track long-term changes on local hydrology and water quality, as well as inform the effects of these changes on fish and fisheries.

Advanced time-lagged effects of drought on global vegetation growth and its social risk in the 21st century

Extensive studies have demonstrated the restricting effect of past and present drought conditions on vegetation growth over the past three decades. However, the underlying mechanism of the impact of prior drought on vegetation growth - along with the magnitude of its impact over the rest of the 21st century - remains uncertain. Herein, we examined the evolution and characteristics of global vegetation growth and drought for both baseline (1982-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods under four representative pathways using the gross primary productivity (GPP) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index from the CMIP6. Further, we investigated the time-lagged effects of drought on vegetation growth and the intensity of population and economy exposure to drought by identifying drought-threatened areas under four emission scenarios. The results show that, at the end of the 21st century, the global terrestrial GPP will experience an increasing trend under four scenarios, especially in SSP5-8.5, with a growth rate of 0.032 kg C m-2/decade, which is 10 times higher than that in SSP1-2.6. From the SSP1-2.6 to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the SPEI change rates are -0.03, -0.01, -0.017, and -0.018/decade, respectively, indicating that the intensity of global drought events will rise with increases in CO2 emissions. 28.3%, 24.7%, 30.4%, and 35% of global land exhibit downward mean time-lagged months in four scenarios, especially in the middle-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere (>45°N), indicating an advanced response of vegetation to drought. Nearly 8, 9.1, 12.9, and 11.5 billion people - valued at 94,138 (SSP1-2.6), 976,020 (SSP2-4.5), 526,595 (SSP3-7.0), and 204,728 (SSP5-8.5) billion US$, respectively - will be threatened by continuous drought. Globally, the population and economy exposure to moderate and extreme drought zones is larger, and the economic risk from extreme droughts is 8 times greater under the high emissions scenario than the low emissions scenario.

How (not) to talk about plant-based foods: using language to support the transition to sustainable diets

Reducing meat consumption is essential to curb further climate change and limit the catastrophic environmental degradation resulting from the current global food system. However, consumers in industrialised countries are hesitant to reduce their meat intake, often because they find plant-based foods less appealing. Despite the climate emergency, eating meat is still perceived as the norm, and recommended in most national dietary guidelines. To support the transition to more sustainable diets by providing insights for increasing the appeal of plant-based foods to mainstream consumers, this review presents recent research findings on how people think and communicate about meat-based and plant-based foods. The key findings we review include: (1) while vegans think about plant-based foods in terms of enjoyable eating experiences, omnivores think about plant-based foods in terms of health, vegan identity and other abstract information that does not motivate consumption in the moment. (2) Packages of ready-meals and social media posts on Instagram present plant-based foods with fewer references to enjoyable eating experiences than meat-based foods. (3) Presenting plant-based foods with language that references enjoyable eating experiences increases their appeal, especially for habitual meat eaters. This language includes words about sensory features of the food (e.g., crunchy, creamy), eating context (e.g. pub; with family) and immediate positive consequences of eating (e.g. comforting, delicious). In contrast, the term 'vegan' is strongly associated with negative stereotypes. Hence, rather than referring to being vegan, meat-free or healthy, the language used for plant-based foods should refer to sensory appeal, attractive eating situations and enjoyment.

Estimating the spatial amplification of damage caused by degradation in the Amazon

The Amazon rainforests have been undergoing unprecedented levels of human-induced disturbances. In addition to local impacts, such changes are likely to cascade following the eastern-western atmospheric flow generated by trade winds. We propose a model of spatial and temporal interactions created by this flow to estimate the spread of effects from local disturbances to downwind locations along atmospheric trajectories. The spatial component captures cascading effects propagated by neighboring regions, while the temporal component captures the persistence of local disturbances. Importantly, all these network effects can be described by a single matrix, acting as a spatial multiplier that amplifies local forest disturbances. This matrix holds practical implications for policymakers as they can use it to easily map where the damage of an initial forest disturbance is amplified and propagated to. We identify regions that are likely to cause the largest impact throughout the basin and those that are the most vulnerable to shocks caused by remote deforestation. On average, the presence of cascading effects mediated by winds in the Amazon doubles the impact of an initial damage. However, there is heterogeneity in this impact. While damage in some regions does not propagate, in others, amplification can reach 250%. Since we only account for spillovers mediated by winds, our multiplier of 2 should be seen as a lower bound.

Heavy metal resistance in the Yanomami and Tunapuco microbiome

BACKGROUND

The Amazon Region hosts invaluable and unique biodiversity as well as mineral resources. Consequently, large illegal and artisanal gold mining areas exist in indigenous territories. Mercury has been used in gold mining, and some has been released into the environment and atmosphere, primarily affecting indigenous people such as the Yanomami. In addition, other heavy metals have been associated with gold mining and other metal-dispersing activities in the region.

OBJECTIVE

Investigate the gut microbiome of two semi-isolated groups from the Amazon, focusing on metal resistance.

METHODS

Metagenomic data from the Yanomami and Tunapuco gut microbiome were assembled into contigs, and their putative proteins were searched against a database of metal resistance proteins.

FINDINGS

Proteins associated with mercury resistance were exclusive in the Yanomami, while proteins associated with silver resistance were exclusive in the Tunapuco. Both groups share 77 non-redundant metal resistance (MR) proteins, mostly associated with multi-MR and operons with potential resistance to arsenic, nickel, zinc, copper, copper/silver, and cobalt/nickel. Although both groups harbour operons related to copper resistance, only the Tunapuco group had the pco operon.

CONCLUSION

The Yanomami and Tunapuco gut microbiome shows that these people have been exposed directly or indirectly to distinct scenarios concerning heavy metals.

Amazon deforestation causes strong regional warming

Tropical deforestation impacts the climate through complex land-atmosphere interactions causing local and regional warming. However, whilst the impacts of deforestation on local temperature are well understood, the regional (nonlocal) response is poorly quantified. Here, we used remote-sensed observations of forest loss and dry season land-surface temperature during the period 2001 to 2020 to demonstrate that deforestation of the Amazon caused strong warming at distances up to 100 km away from the forest loss. We apply a machine learning approach to show nonlocal warming due to forest loss at 2-100 km length scales increases the warming due to deforestation by more than a factor 4, from 0.16 K to 0.71 K for each 10-percentage points of forest loss. We estimate that rapid future deforestation under a strong inequality scenario could cause dry season warming of 0.96 K across Mato Grosso state in southern Brazil over the period 2020 to 2050. Reducing deforestation could reduce future warming caused by forest loss to 0.4 K. Our results demonstrate the contribution of tropical deforestation to regional climate warming and the potential for reduced deforestation to deliver regional climate adaptation and resilience with important implications for sustainable management of the Amazon.

Natural climate solutions provide robust carbon mitigation capacity under future climate change scenarios

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are recognized as an important tool for governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide. Using California as a globally relevant reference, we evaluate the magnitude of biological climate mitigation potential from NCS starting in 2020 under four climate change scenarios. By mid-century NCS implementation leads to a large increase in net carbon stored, flipping the state from a net source to a net sink in two scenarios. Forest and conservation land management strategies make up 85% of all NCS emissions reductions by 2050, with agricultural strategies accounting for the remaining 15%. The most severe climate change impacts on ecosystem carbon materialize in the latter half of the century with three scenarios resulting in California ecosystems becoming a net source of carbon emissions under a baseline trajectory. However, NCS provide a strong attenuating effect, reducing land carbon emissions 41-54% by 2100 with total costs of deployment of 752-777 million USD annually through 2050. Rapid implementation of a portfolio of NCS interventions provides long-term investment in protecting ecosystem carbon in the face of climate change driven disturbances. This open-source, spatially-explicit framework can help evaluate risks to NCS carbon storage stability, implementation costs, and overall mitigation potential for NCS at jurisdictional scales.

Southern Hemisphere dominates recent decline in global water availability

Global land water underpins livelihoods, socioeconomic development, and ecosystems. It remains unclear how water availability has changed in recent decades. Using an ensemble of observations, we quantified global land water availability over the past two decades. We show that the Southern Hemisphere has dominated the declining trend in global water availability from 2001 to 2020. The significant decrease occurs mainly in South America, southwestern Africa, and northwestern Australia. In the Northern Hemisphere, the complex regional increasing and decreasing trends cancel each other, resulting in a negligible hemispheric trend. The variability and trend in water availability in the Southern Hemisphere are largely driven by precipitation associated with climate modes, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This study highlights their dominant role in controlling global water availability.

A systematic review on metal contamination due to mining activities in the Amazon basin and associated environmental hazards

Metal contamination associated with mining activities has been considered one of the main environmental pollution problems in the Amazon region. Understanding the levels of metal contamination from mining activities requires a good understanding of background metal concentrations, which may vary notably according to the geology/lithology characteristics of the region, soil type, and predominant biogeochemical processes. This review assessed 50 papers and reports published between 1989 and 2020 describing environmental concentrations of different metals and metalloids (As, Hg, Mn, Fe, Cd, Cu, Cr, Pb, Ni, and Zn) in water and sediments of mining and non-mining areas in five geographic regions of the Amazon basin. Metal enrichment caused by mining activities was calculated and exposure concentrations were compared with sediment and water quality standards set for the protection of aquatic life. Significant enrichments of Cd, Cu, Cr, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni and Zn were observed in mining areas in both sediment and water. Regarding background levels in the different geographic regions, the highest prevalence of metal enrichment (i.e., concentrations 10 to 100-fold higher than mean background values) in sediment samples was found for Fe (100% of samples), Ni (90%), and Mn (69%). For water, high prevalence of metal enrichment occurred for Zn, Mn, and Fe (100% of samples), and for Hg (86%). Hg, Fe, Pb, Cu, Cd, Ni and Zn exceeded water and/or sediment quality standards in a significant number of samples in the proximity of mining areas. This study indicates that mining activities significantly contribute to water and sediment contamination across the Amazon basin, posing hazards for freshwater ecosystems and potentially having human health implications.

Human footprints in the Global South accelerate biomass carbon loss in ecologically sensitive regions

Human activities have placed significant pressure on the terrestrial biosphere, leading to ecosystem degradation and carbon losses. However, the full impact of these activities on terrestrial biomass carbon remains unexplored. In this study, we examined changes in global human footprint (HFP) and human-induced aboveground biomass carbon (AGBC) losses from 2000 to 2018. Our findings show an increasing trend in HFP globally, resulting in the conversion of wilderness areas to highly modified regions. These changes have altered global biomes' habitats, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. We also found accelerated AGBC loss driven by HFP expansion, with a total loss of 19.99 ± 0.196 PgC from 2000 to 2018, especially in tropical regions. Additionally, AGBC is more vulnerable in the Global South than in the Global North. Human activities threaten natural habitats, resulting in increasing AGBC loss even in strictly protected areas. Therefore, scientifically guided planning of future human activities is crucial to protect half of Earth through mitigation and adaptation under future risks of climate change and global urbanization.

A biomass map of the Brazilian Amazon from multisource remote sensing

The Amazon Forest, the largest contiguous tropical forest in the world, stores a significant fraction of the carbon on land. Changes in climate and land use affect total carbon stocks, making it critical to continuously update and revise the best estimates for the region, particularly considering changes in forest dynamics. Forest inventory data cover only a tiny fraction of the Amazon region, and the coverage is not sufficient to ensure reliable data interpolation and validation. This paper presents a new forest above-ground biomass map for the Brazilian Amazon and the associated uncertainty both with a resolution of 250 meters and baseline for the satellite dataset the year of 2016 (i.e., the year of the satellite observation). A significant increase in data availability from forest inventories and remote sensing has enabled progress towards high-resolution biomass estimates. This work uses the largest airborne LiDAR database ever collected in the Amazon, mapping 360,000 km2 through transects distributed in all vegetation categories in the region. The map uses airborne laser scanning (ALS) data calibrated by field forest inventories that are extrapolated to the region using a machine learning approach with inputs from Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), vegetation indices obtained from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, and precipitation information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). A total of 174 field inventories geolocated using a Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) were used to validate the biomass estimations. The experimental design allowed for a comprehensive representation of several vegetation types, producing an above-ground biomass map varying from a maximum value of 518 Mg ha-1, a mean of 174 Mg ha-1, and a standard deviation of 102 Mg ha-1. This unique dataset enabled a better representation of the regional distribution of the forest biomass and structure, providing further studies and critical information for decision-making concerning forest conservation, planning, carbon emissions estimate, and mechanisms for supporting carbon emissions reductions.

Networks analysis of Brazilian climate data based on the DCCA cross-correlation coefficient

Climate change is one of the most relevant challenges that the world has to deal with. Studies that aim to understand the behavior of environmental and atmospheric variables and the way they relate to each other can provide helpful insights into how the climate is changing. However, such studies are complex and rarely found in the literature, especially in dealing with data from the Brazilian territory. In this paper, we analyze four environmental and atmospheric variables, namely, wind speed, radiation, temperature, and humidity, measured in 27 Weather Stations (the capital of each of the 26 Brazilian states plus the federal district). We use the detrended fluctuation analysis to evaluate the statistical self-affinity of the time series, as well as the cross-correlation coefficient ρDCCA to quantify the long-range cross-correlation between stations, and a network analysis that considers the top 10% ρDCCA values to represent the cross-correlations between stations better. The methodology used in this paper represents a step forward in the field of hybrid methodologies, combining time series and network analysis that can be applied to other regions, other environmental variables, and also to other fields of research. The application results are of great importance to better understand the behavior of environmental and atmospheric variables in the Brazilian territory and to provide helpful insights about climate change and renewable energy production.

Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.

Taking stock of nationally determined contributions: Continued ratcheting of ambition is critical to limit global warming to 1.5°C

As countries take stock of progress made in accomplishing their climate goals ahead of COP28 this year, it is increasingly apparent that countries must ratchet ambition in policy areas such as non-CO2 gases and carbon dioxide removal, while halting deforestation to lead the globe on a path consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement

The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change1-4. Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles5,6, deforestation7 and fire data8, as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation9. We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 ± 0.08 PgC year-1 in 2010-2018 to 0.44 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2019 and 0.52 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2020 (± uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010-2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019-2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Niño (2015-2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 2010-2018 mean and 2019-2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019-2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests.

Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds

The critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7 °C (Tcrit)1. However, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change. Here we found that pantropical canopy temperatures independently triangulated from individual leaf thermocouples, pyrgeometers and remote sensing (ECOSTRESS) have midday peak temperatures of approximately 34 °C during dry periods, with a long high-temperature tail that can exceed 40 °C. Leaf thermocouple data from multiple sites across the tropics suggest that even within pixels of moderate temperatures, upper canopy leaves exceed Tcrit 0.01% of the time. Furthermore, upper canopy leaf warming experiments (+2, 3 and 4 °C in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Australia, respectively) increased leaf temperatures non-linearly, with peak leaf temperatures exceeding Tcrit 1.3% of the time (11% for more than 43.5 °C, and 0.3% for more than 49.9 °C). Using an empirical model incorporating these dynamics (validated with warming experiment data), we found that tropical forests can withstand up to a 3.9 ± 0.5 °C increase in air temperatures before a potential tipping point in metabolic function, but remaining uncertainty in the plasticity and range of Tcrit in tropical trees and the effect of leaf death on tree death could drastically change this prediction. The 4.0 °C estimate is within the 'worst-case scenario' (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) of climate change predictions2 for tropical forests and therefore it is still within our power to decide (for example, by not taking the RCP 6.0 or 8.5 route) the fate of these critical realms of carbon, water and biodiversity3,4.

Global estimates of gap-free and fine-scale CO2 concentrations during 2014-2020 from satellite and reanalysis data

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a crucial greenhouse gas with substantial effects on climate change. Satellite-based remote sensing is a commonly used approach to detect CO2 with high precision but often suffers from extensive spatial gaps. Thus, the limited availability of data makes global carbon stocktaking challenging. In this paper, a global gap-free column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) dataset with a high spatial resolution of 0.1° from 2014 to 2020 is generated by the deep learning-based multisource data fusion, including satellite and reanalyzed XCO2 products, satellite vegetation index data, and meteorological data. Results indicate a high accuracy for 10-fold cross-validation (R2 = 0.959 and RMSE = 1.068 ppm) and ground-based validation (R2 = 0.964 and RMSE = 1.010 ppm). Our dataset has the advantages of high accuracy and fine spatial resolution compared with the XCO2 reanalysis data as well as that generated from other studies. Based on the dataset, our analysis reveals interesting findings regarding the spatiotemporal pattern of CO2 over the globe and the national-level growth rates of CO2. This gap-free and fine-scale dataset has the potential to provide support for understanding the global carbon cycle and making carbon reduction policy, and it can be freely accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7721945.

Envisioning environmental equity: climate change, health, and racial justice

Climate change has a broad range of health impacts and tackling climate change could be the greatest opportunity for improving global health this century. Yet conversations on climate change and health are often incomplete, giving little attention to structural discrimination and the need for racial justice. Racism kills, and climate change kills. Together, racism and climate change interact and have disproportionate effects on the lives of minoritised people both within countries and between the Global North and the Global South. This paper has three main aims. First, to survey the literature on the unequal health impacts of climate change due to racism, xenophobia, and discrimination through a scoping review. We found that racially minoritised groups, migrants, and Indigenous communities face a disproportionate burden of illness and mortality due to climate change in different contexts. Second, this paper aims to highlight inequalities in responsibility for climate change and the effects thereof. A geographical visualisation of responsibility for climate change and projected mortality and disease risk attributable to climate change per 100 000 people in 2050 was conducted. These maps visualise the disproportionate burden of illness and mortality due to climate change faced by the Global South. Our third aim is to highlight the pathways through which climate change, discrimination, and health interact in most affected areas. Case studies, testimony, and policy analysis drawn from multidisciplinary perspectives are presented throughout the paper to elucidate these pathways. The health community must urgently examine and repair the structural discrimination that drives the unequal impacts of climate change to achieve rapid and equitable action.

Crosstalk between 5-Aminolevulinic Acid and Abscisic Acid Adjusted Leaf Iron Accumulation and Chlorophyll Synthesis to Enhance the Cold Tolerance in Solanum lycopersicum Seedlings

Previous studies found that 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA) and abscisic acid (ABA) can mitigate damage from adversity by enhancing photosynthesis. However, it is not clear whether they have positive effects on iron utilization and chlorophyll synthesis of tomato seedlings under low-temperature stress. To investigate the possible functional relationship between ABA and ALA and elucidate the possible mechanisms of action of ALA to alleviate low-temperature stress in tomato seedlings, this experiment analyzed the effects of ALA and ABA on chlorophyll synthesis in tomato seedling leaves sprayed with exogenous of ALA (25 mg·L^-1) or ABA (100 µM) under low-temperature stress (8-18 °C/8-12 °C, day/night). The results show that exogenous ALA increased the Fv/Fm of tomato leaves by 5.31% and increased the accumulation of iron and chlorophyll by 101.15% and 15.18%, respectively, compared to the low-temperature treatment alone, and tomato resistance of low-temperature stress was enhanced. Meanwhile, exogenous application of ALA increased the ABA content by 39.43%, and subsequent application of exogenous ABA revealed that tomato seedlings showed similar effects to exogenous ALA under low-temperature stress, with increased accumulation of iron and chlorophyll in tomato seedlings, which eventually increased the maximum photochemical efficiency of PS II. Under low-temperature stress, application of exogenous ABA significantly reduced ALA content, but the expression of key enzyme genes (PPGD, HEMB1, HEME1, and HEMF1), precursors of chlorophyll synthesis by ALA, was significantly elevated, presumably because the increased activity of these enzymes after external application of ABA accelerated ALA consumption. In conclusion, ABA may crosstalk with ALA to improve the photochemical efficiency and low temperature resistance of tomatoes by regulating chlorophyll synthesis and iron accumulation.