Impact of vaccination on new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United Kingdom

Effect of vaccinations and school restrictions on the spread of COVID-19 in different age groups in Germany

With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, various non-pharmaceutical interventions were adopted to control virus transmission, including school closures. Subsequently, the introduction of vaccines mitigated not only disease severity but also the spread of SARS-CoV-2. This study leveraged an adapted SIR model and non-linear mixed-effects modeling to quantify the impact of remote learning, school holidays, the emergence of Variants of Concern (VOCs), and the role of vaccinations in controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread across 16 German federal states with an age-stratified approach. Findings highlight a significant inverse correlation (Spearman's ρ = -0.92, p < 0.001) between vaccination rates and peak incidence rates across all age groups. Model-parameter estimation using the observed number of cases stratified by federal state and age allowed to assess the effects of school closure and holidays, considering adjustments for vaccinations and spread of VOCs over time. Here, modeling revealed significant (p < 0.001) differences in the virus's spread among pre-school children (0-4), children (5-11), adolescents (12-17), adults (18-59), and the elderly (60+). The transition to remote learning emerged as a critical measure in significantly reducing infection rates among children and adolescents (p < 0.001), whereas an increased infection risk was noted among the elderly during these periods, suggesting a shift in infection networks due to altered caregiving roles. Conversely, during school holiday periods, infection rates among adolescents mirrored those observed when schools were open. Simulation exercises based on the model provided evidence that COVID-19 vaccinations might serve a dual purpose: they protect the vaccinated individuals and contribute to the broader community's safety.

Modelling on COVID-19 control with double and booster-dose vaccination

COVID-19 vaccines have been illustrated to lessen the growth of sickness caused by the virus effectively. In any case, inoculation has consistently been controversial, with differing opinions and viewpoints. This has compelled some individuals to decide against receiving the vaccine. These divergent viewpoints have had a trivial impact on the epidemic's dynamics and the disease's development. In response to vaccinated individuals still falling ill, many countries have implemented booster vaccines to protect further. In this specific investigation, a mathematical model composed of seven compartments is employed to examine the effectiveness of a booster dose in preventing and treating the transmission of COVID-19. The principles of mathematics are employed to analyse and investigate the dynamics of the disease. Using a qualitative prototype analysis, we acquired valuable insights into its effectiveness. One essential aspect is the basic reproduction number, a critical determinant of the disease's spread. This calculation is determined by studying the system's equilibrium and evaluating its stability. Furthermore, we examined the balance from a local and global viewpoint, considering the possibility of bifurcation and the model's reproductive number sensitivity index. Through numerical simulations, we have visually illustrated the analytical findings outlined in this research paper and presented a thorough examination of the efficacy of booster shots as a preventive and therapeutic measure in the spread dynamics of COVID-19.

Longitudinal Evaluation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 T-Cell Immunity Over 2 Years Following Vaccination and Infection

BACKGROUND

Within a year of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, vaccines inducing a robust humoral and cellular immune response were implemented worldwide. However, emergence of novel variants and waning vaccine-induced immunity led to implementation of additional vaccine boosters.

METHODS

This prospective study evaluated the temporal profile of cellular and serological responses in a cohort of 639 SARS-CoV-2-vaccinated participants, of whom a large proportion experienced a SARS-CoV-2 infection. All participants were infection naïve at the time of their first vaccine dose. Proportions of SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific T cells were determined after each vaccine dose using the activation-induced marker assay, while levels of circulating SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were determined by the Meso Scale serology assay.

RESULTS

We found a significant increase in SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses following the third dose of a SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA vaccine as well as enhanced CD8+ T-cell responses after the fourth dose. Furthermore, increased age was associated with a poorer response. Finally, we observed that SARS-CoV-2 infection boosts both the cellular and humoral immune response, relative to vaccine-induced immunity alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the boosting effect on T-cell immunity of repeated vaccine administration. The combination of multiple vaccine doses and SARS-CoV-2 infections maintains population T-cell immunity, although with reduced levels in the elderly.

The Impact of Vaccination on the Likelihood of COVID-19 Infection

The current study investigates COVID-19 infection likelihood using data from 5,819 respondents in Vietnam and Indonesia (December 10, 2022, to March 27, 2023) through binary logistic regressions. Descriptive statistics highlight the significance of vaccination status, with almost half of unvaccinated respondents contracting the infection. The second vaccine dose showed the lowest infection percentages, suggesting a potential dose-dependent effect. Those receiving mRNA vaccines consistently had reduced infection likelihood across the first four doses, with an unexpected reversal for the fifth dose. Vaccinated individuals, especially with mRNA vaccines, had faster recovery times, and variability in recovery times and milder symptoms were observed in mRNA vaccine recipients. Regression results from Model 1 reveal a substantial impact of vaccination, with vaccinated respondents having ∼48.1% lower odds than the unvaccinated. Model 2 underscores a dose-dependent protective effect, with each additional dose associated with a notable 6.6% reduction in infection likelihood. Beyond vaccination, gender, family size, marital status, employment, urban residence, and nationality influenced infection likelihood. Males, larger families, single marital status, unemployment, rural residence, and Indonesian nationality increased the likelihood of infection. Surprisingly, respondents with infected family members exhibited a lower infection likelihood, suggesting potential protective measures within households. These findings highlight COVID-19 dynamics, and ongoing research refines comprehension.

Comprehensive Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics in Bangladesh: Infection Trends and Variants (2020-2023)

The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Bangladesh on 8 March 2020. Since then, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) has implemented various measures to limit the transmission of COVID-19, including widespread testing facilities across the nation through a laboratory network for COVID-19 molecular testing. This study aimed to analyze the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh by conducting COVID-19 testing and genomic surveillance of the virus variants throughout the pandemic. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from authorized GoB collection centers between April 2020 and June 2023. The viral RNA was extracted and subjected to real-time PCR analysis in icddr,b's Virology laboratory. A subset of positive samples underwent whole-genome sequencing to track the evolutionary footprint of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We tested 149,270 suspected COVID-19 cases from Dhaka (n = 81,782) and other districts (n = 67,488). Of these, 63% were male. The highest positivity rate, 27%, was found in the >60 years age group, followed by 26%, 51-60 years, 25% in 41-50 years, and the lowest, 9% in under five children. Notably, the sequencing of 2742 SARS-CoV-2 genomes displayed a pattern of globally circulating variants, Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron, successively replacing each other over time and causing peaks of COVID-19 infection. Regarding the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, it was observed that the positivity rate increased with age compared to the under-5 age group in 2020 and 2021. However, these trends did not remain consistent in 2022, where older age groups, particularly those over 60, had a lower positivity rate compared to other age groups due to vaccination. The study findings generated data on the real-time circulation of different SARS-CoV-2 variants and the upsurge of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh, which impacted identifying hotspots and restricting the virus from further transmission. Even though there is currently a low circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh, similar approaches of genomic surveillance remain essential for monitoring the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants or other potential pathogens that could lead to future pandemics.

A national survey of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on training and wellbeing of restorative and mono-speciality specialist trainees in the UK and Ireland

Introduction COVID-19 emergency and associated measures across the UK and Ireland during the first and third waves of the pandemic disrupted mainstream dental services and training across all specialties.Aims Investigate the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on training, mental health and wellbeing of specialty trainees (STs) in restorative dentistry and associated mono-specialities across the United Kingdom and Ireland.Materials and methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted exploring experiences of STs in restorative dentistry, prosthodontics, endodontics and periodontics (n = 101) across the United Kingdom and Ireland during the first (March 2020) and third (July 2021) waves of the pandemic. Results were analysed quantitatively and qualitatively.Results In total, 28 postgraduate trainees responded, yielding a 28% response rate. STs reported perceived impact on their training in March 2020 and July 2021, with some redeployed to urgent dental care duties in this time period. STs reported reduction in speciality-level clinical activities and a negative impact on mental health and wellbeing in both March 2020 and July 2021. A total of 12 STs felt COVID-19 negatively impacted their future careers.Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted clinical training and mental health of STs in restorative dentistry and associated mono-specialities across the United Kingdom and Ireland. Increased flexibility and accounting for lost clinical activities could have improved ST morale and wellbeing.

COVID-19 antibody titers after tixagevimab-cilgavimab injection in patients with hematologic diseases; a single-center, prospective study

Knowledge of the SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers induced by tixagevimab-cilgavimab in patients with hematologic diseases remains insufficient. Here, we performed a single-center, prospective study to reveal the changes in antibody titer after administration of tixagevimab-cilgavimab in 78 patients with hematologic diseases. The median peak titer was 155.4 U/mL, and the median AUC was 46556 days·U/mL. First, we compared several characteristics between patients with low titers (peak titer ≤ 155.4 U/mL) and high titers (peak titer > 155.4 U/mL). We extracted 6 factors (patient age, sex, ECOG-PS, serum albumin level, and cross-sectional area and computed tomographic number of the psoas major muscle) as candidates influencing the antibody titers. Multiple regression analysis revealed that antibody titer was closely associated with these 6 factors (contribution rate = 0.76, p = 0.02). Our data support the inability of tixagevimab-cilgavimab to induce sufficient antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2, especially in older, frailer, female patients.

Cohort study of cardiovascular safety of different COVID-19 vaccination doses among 46 million adults in England

The first dose of COVID-19 vaccines led to an overall reduction in cardiovascular events, and in rare cases, cardiovascular complications. There is less information about the effect of second and booster doses on cardiovascular diseases. Using longitudinal health records from 45.7 million adults in England between December 2020 and January 2022, our study compared the incidence of thrombotic and cardiovascular complications up to 26 weeks after first, second and booster doses of brands and combinations of COVID-19 vaccines used during the UK vaccination program with the incidence before or without the corresponding vaccination. The incidence of common arterial thrombotic events (mainly acute myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke) was generally lower after each vaccine dose, brand and combination. Similarly, the incidence of common venous thrombotic events, (mainly pulmonary embolism and lower limb deep venous thrombosis) was lower after vaccination. There was a higher incidence of previously reported rare harms after vaccination: vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia after first ChAdOx1 vaccination, and myocarditis and pericarditis after first, second and transiently after booster mRNA vaccination (BNT-162b2 and mRNA-1273). These findings support the wide uptake of future COVID-19 vaccination programs.

Association of Prior COVID-19 Infection with Risk of Breakthrough Infection Following Vaccination: A Cohort Study in Isfahan, Iran

Background

Many people worldwide have developed a combination of natural and vaccine-induced immunity to COVID-19. This study investigated whether exposure to SARS-CoV-2 before full vaccination promotes protection against a breakthrough infection.

Methods

We studied a total of 2,902,545 people in the Isfahan COVID-19 Registry. All the participants had received two doses of either Sinopharm BIBP, ChAdOx1-nCoV-19, Gam-COVID-Vac, or BIV1-CovIran vaccines. A cohort study examined the association between prior COVID-19 infection and the risk of a breakthrough infection for each vaccine. Cohorts in each pair were matched by gender, age group, calendar week of the first dose, the interval between the first and second doses, and the proportion of healthcare workers. The probable virus variant for the previous infections was also considered. Each individual's follow-up started 14 days after their second vaccine dose until either the end of the study censoring date, occurrence of a COVID-19 infection, or death. The breakthrough infection risk was compared between each cohort pair by using the hazard ratio (HR) and incidence rate ratio (IRR).

Results

Total breakthrough HRs (95% confidence interval) (previously infected over infection-naïve matched cohort) were 0.36 (0.23-0.55), 0.35 (0.32-0.40), 0.37 (0.30-0.46), and 0.43 (0.32-0.56) for the BIV1-CovIran, Sinopharm BIBP, Gam-COVID-Vac, and ChAdOx1-nCoV-19 vaccine groups, respectively. The breakthrough infection IRRs were approximately similar to the total HRs mentioned above.

Conclusion

Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection conferred additive immunity against breakthrough after vaccination, no matter which vaccine brand was injected. Such a result could guide health authorities to codify low-cost high-benefit vaccination protocols and protect the community's well-being.

Improving the representativeness of UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey through spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification

Population-representative estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence and antibody levels in specific geographic areas at different time points are needed to optimise policy responses. However, even population-wide surveys are potentially impacted by biases arising from differences in participation rates across key groups. Here, we used spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification models to UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) to obtain representative estimates of PCR positivity (6,496,052 tests) and antibody prevalence (1,941,333 tests) for different regions, ages and ethnicities (7-December-2020 to 4-May-2022). Not accounting for vaccination status through post-stratification led to small underestimation of PCR positivity, but more substantial overestimations of antibody levels in the population (up to 21 percentage points), particularly in groups with low vaccine uptake in the general population. There was marked variation in the relative contribution of different areas and age-groups to each wave. Future analyses of infectious disease surveys should take into account major drivers of outcomes of interest that may also influence participation, with vaccination being an important factor to consider.

Fertility outcomes in women undergoing Assisted Reproductive Treatments after COVID-19 vaccination: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Vaccination against Coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) was widely administered from 2021 onwards. There is little information on how this vaccine affected fertility after assisted-reproductive-technology (ART). The aim of this study therefore was to determine if COVID-19 vaccination or time-since-vaccination influenced ART outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, 502 oocyte-retrieval-cycles and 582 subsequent embryo- transfer-cycles were grouped based on COVID-19 vaccine status of the female partner into those with no-exposure, 1-dose and ≥2-dose exposure. Within the exposed cohort, time-since-last-vaccination to embryotransfer- cycle (Ttr) was calculated in days. Main outcomes were mean-total-utilizable-embryos, mean-oocyteutilization- rates and cumulative-ongoing-pregnancy-rates per oocyte-retrieval-cycle, and ongoing-pregnancy and pregnancy-loss-rates per embryo-transfer cycle. The Beta-coefficient (ß) was calculated using linear regression for mean-total-utilizable-embryos and mean-oocyte-utilization-rates and adjusted-odds-ratio (OR) was calculated for cumulative-ongoing-pregnancy-rates, ongoing-pregnancy and pregnancy-loss-rates using binomial logistic regression. Influence of T(tr) on embryo-transfer outcomes was estimated using receiver-operator-curve (ROC) analysis and cut-offs determined that influenced embryo-transfer outcomes.

RESULTS

Mean-total-utilizable-embryos and mean-oocyte-utilization-rate per oocyte-retrieval-cycle in no-exposure, 1-dose and ≥2 dose were 2.7 ± 1.8 vs. 2.5 ± 1.9 vs. 2.7 ± 2.0, P=0.78, (ß=0.42, 95% confidence-interval (CI)=0.15 to 0.69) and 21.2 ± 13.2 vs. 25.1 ± 19.0 vs. 26.7 ± 18.8, P=0.08, (ß=3.94, 95% CI=1.26 to 6.23) respectively. Ongoing-pregnancy-rates and pregnancy-loss-rates per embryo-transfer-cycle were 27.3% vs. 24.4% vs. 32.5% (aOR=1.38, 95% CI=0.3-5.6, P=0.52), and 13.6% vs. 13.4% vs. 15.2%, (aOR=0.97, 95% CI=0.18-5.2, P=0.97) respectively. Cumulative-ongoing-pregnancy-rates per oocyte-retrieval-cycle were 36.5% vs. 34.5% vs. 35.5% (aOR=1.53, 95% CI=0.57 to 4.07, P=0.35). Median T(tr) was 146 days (IQR: 80-220). T(tr) negatively affected ongoing pregnancy rates for intervals <60 days (AUC=0.59, 95% CI=0.54-0.66, P<0.01). For T(tr) >60 vs. <60 days, the aOR for ongoing-pregnancy-per-embryo-transfer-cycle was 2.85 (95% CI=1.50-5.46, P<0.01).

CONCLUSION

Covid-19 vaccination does not negatively influence embryological-outcomes or cumulative-ongoing-pregnancies after ART-treatments. Duration since vaccination may have a weak negative effect on embryo-transfer-outcomes performed within 60 days.

COVID-19 Vaccines and COVID-19 in People Living with HIV

Objective

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly around the world, and COVID-19 and HIV co-infection also became common. In this study, we aimed to investigate the impact of vaccination preferences and vaccination rates on the severity of COVID-19 in patients with HIV co-infection.

Materials and Methods

People living with HIV who were followed in our hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic (January 2020- December 2022) were retrospectively included in the study. The diagnosis of COVID-19 was made by detecting SARS-CoV-2 RNA in nasopharyngeal swab specimens using real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Patients requiring hospital admission were classified as severe. The patient's demographics and vaccination status were collected from the hospital data system.

Results

Our study included 205 patients using antiretroviral therapy for HIV. The mean day count between the last vaccine date and SARS-CoV-2 PCR positivity was 163 days in the Comirnaty® group,149 days in the CoronaVac® group, and 154 days in the mixed-vaccinated group. Those vaccinated with Comirnaty® were statistically significantly less infected with COVID-19 after vaccination (p<0.05).

Conclusion

The course and the outcomes of COVID-19 among SARS-CoV-2 vaccinated people living with HIV, especially with well-controlled HIV infection, seem to be similar to people living without HIV.

Alternations in miR-155 and miR-200 serum levels can serve as biomarkers for COVID-19 in the post-mass vaccination era

BACKGROUND

Mass vaccination and natural immunity reduced the severity of COVID-19 cases. SARS-CoV-2 ongoing genome variations imply the use of confirmatory serologic biomarkers besides PCR for reliable diagnosis. MicroRNA molecules are intrinsic components of the innate immune system. The expression of miR155-5p and miR200c-3p was previously correlated with SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis. This case-control study was conducted during the third peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt and aimed to calculate the accuracy of miR155-5p and miR200c-3p as biomarkers for COVID-19.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Thirty out of 400 COVID-19 patients at a main University hospital in Alexandria were included in the study along with 20 age-matched healthy controls. Plasma samples were collected for total and differential CBC. Relative quantitation of miR155-5p and miR200c-3p expression from WBCs was done by RT-qPCR. The expression of miR155-5p and miR200c-3p was positively correlated and was significantly downregulated in COVID-19 patients compared to the healthy control group (p ˂ 0.005). Both miR155-5p and miR200c-3p were of 76% and 74% accuracy as diagnostic biomarkers of COVID-19, respectively. Regarding the differentiation between mild and moderate cases, their accuracy was 80% and 70%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

miR155-5p and miR200c-3p expression can be used to confirm the diagnosis of COVID-19 and discriminate between mild and moderate cases, with a moderate degree of accuracy.

Epidemiological characteristics and antibody kinetics of elderly population with booster vaccination following both Omicron BA.5 and XBB waves in China

After the termination of zero-COVID-19 policy, the populace in China has experienced both Omicron BA.5 and XBB waves. Considering the poor antibody responses and severe outcomes observed among the elderly following infection, we conducted a longitudinal investigation to examine the epidemiological characteristics and antibody kinetics among 107 boosted elderly participants following the Omicron BA.5 and XBB waves. We observed that 96 participants (89.7%) were infected with Omicron BA.5, while 59 (55.1%) participants were infected with Omicron XBB. Notably, 52 participants (48.6%) experienced dual infections of both Omicron BA.5 and XBB. The proportion of symptomatic cases appeared to decrease following the XBB wave (18.6%) compared to that after the BA.5 wave (59.3%). Omicron BA.5 breakthrough infection induced lower neutralizing antibody titers against XBB.1.5, BA.2.86, and JN.1, while reinfection with Omicron XBB broadened the antibody responses against all measured Omicron subvariants and may alleviate the wild type-vaccination induced immune imprinting. Boosted vaccination type and comorbidities were the significant factors associated with antibody responses. Updated vaccines based on emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants are needed to control the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic in the elderly.

The role of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing post-COVID-19 thromboembolic and cardiovascular complications

OBJECTIVE

To study the association between COVID-19 vaccination and the risk of post-COVID-19 cardiac and thromboembolic complications.

METHODS

We conducted a staggered cohort study based on national vaccination campaigns using electronic health records from the UK, Spain and Estonia. Vaccine rollout was grouped into four stages with predefined enrolment periods. Each stage included all individuals eligible for vaccination, with no previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccine at the start date. Vaccination status was used as a time-varying exposure. Outcomes included heart failure (HF), venous thromboembolism (VTE) and arterial thrombosis/thromboembolism (ATE) recorded in four time windows after SARS-CoV-2 infection: 0-30, 31-90, 91-180 and 181-365 days. Propensity score overlap weighting and empirical calibration were used to minimise observed and unobserved confounding, respectively.Fine-Gray models estimated subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR). Random effect meta-analyses were conducted across staggered cohorts and databases.

RESULTS

The study included 10.17 million vaccinated and 10.39 million unvaccinated people. Vaccination was associated with reduced risks of acute (30-day) and post-acute COVID-19 VTE, ATE and HF: for example, meta-analytic sHR of 0.22 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.29), 0.53 (0.44 to 0.63) and 0.45 (0.38 to 0.53), respectively, for 0-30 days after SARS-CoV-2 infection, while in the 91-180 days sHR were 0.53 (0.40 to 0.70), 0.72 (0.58 to 0.88) and 0.61 (0.51 to 0.73), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccination reduced the risk of post-COVID-19 cardiac and thromboembolic outcomes. These effects were more pronounced for acute COVID-19 outcomes, consistent with known reductions in disease severity following breakthrough versus unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome evolutionary patterns

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus accompanied by public availability of abundant sequence data provides a window for the determination of viral evolutionary patterns. In this study, SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences were collected from seven countries in the period January 2020-December 2022. The sequences were classified into three phases, namely, pre-vaccination, post-vaccination, and recent period. Comparison was performed between these phases based on parameters like mutation rates, selection pressure (dN/dS ratio), and transition to transversion ratios (Ti/Tv). Similar comparisons were performed among SARS-CoV-2 variants. Statistical significance was tested using Graphpad unpaired t-test. The analysis showed an increase in the percent genomic mutation rates post-vaccination and in recent periods across all countries from the pre-vaccination sequences. Mutation rates were highest in NSP3, S, N, and NSP12b before and increased further after vaccination. NSP4 showed the largest change in mutation rates after vaccination. The dN/dS ratios showed purifying selection that shifted toward neutral selection after vaccination. N, ORF8, ORF3a, and ORF10 were under highest positive selection before vaccination. Shift toward neutral selection was driven by E, NSP3, and ORF7a in the after vaccination set. In recent sequences, the largest dN/dS change was observed in E, NSP1, and NSP13. The Ti/Tv ratios decreased with time. C→U and G→U were the most frequent transitions and transversions. However, U→G was the most frequent transversion in recent period. The Omicron variant had the highest genomic mutation rates, while Delta showed the highest dN/dS ratio. Protein-wise dN/dS ratio was also seen to vary across the different variants.IMPORTANCETo the best of our knowledge, there exists no other large-scale study of the genomic and protein-wise mutation patterns during the time course of evolution in different countries. Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary patterns in view of the varying spatial, temporal, and biological signals is important for diagnostics, therapeutics, and pharmacovigilance of SARS-CoV-2.

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection during multiple Omicron variant waves in the UK general population

SARS-CoV-2 reinfections increased substantially after Omicron variants emerged. Large-scale community-based comparisons across multiple Omicron waves of reinfection characteristics, risk factors, and protection afforded by previous infection and vaccination, are limited. Here we studied ~45,000 reinfections from the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey and quantified the risk of reinfection in multiple waves, including those driven by BA.1, BA.2, BA.4/5, and BQ.1/CH.1.1/XBB.1.5 variants. Reinfections were associated with lower viral load and lower percentages of self-reporting symptoms compared with first infections. Across multiple Omicron waves, estimated protection against reinfection was significantly higher in those previously infected with more recent than earlier variants, even at the same time from previous infection. Estimated protection against Omicron reinfections decreased over time from the most recent infection if this was the previous or penultimate variant (generally within the preceding year). Those 14-180 days after receiving their most recent vaccination had a lower risk of reinfection than those >180 days from their most recent vaccination. Reinfection risk was independently higher in those aged 30-45 years, and with either low or high viral load in their most recent previous infection. Overall, the risk of Omicron reinfection is high, but with lower severity than first infections; both viral evolution and waning immunity are independently associated with reinfection.

Impact of COVID-19 vaccination: a global perspective

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread morbidity, mortality, and socio-economic disruptions worldwide. Vaccination has proven to be a crucial strategy in controlling the spread of the virus and mitigating its impact.

Objective

The study focuses on assessing the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in reducing the incidence of positive cases, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. The presented study is focused on the COVID-19 fully vaccinated population by considering the data from the first positive case reported until 20 September 2021.

Methods

Using data from multiple countries, time series analysis is deployed to investigate the variations in the COVID-19 positivity rates, hospitalization rates, and ICU requirements after successful vaccination campaigns at the country scale.

Results

Analysis of the COVID-19 positivity rates revealed a substantial decline in countries with high pre-vaccination rates. Within 1-3 months of vaccination campaigns, these rates decreased by 20-44%. However, certain countries experienced an increase in positivity rates with the emergence of the new Delta variant, emphasizing the importance of ongoing monitoring and adaptable vaccination strategies. Similarly, the analysis of hospitalization rates demonstrated a steady decline as vaccination drive rates rose in various countries. Within 90 days of vaccination, several countries achieved hospitalization rates below 200 per million. However, a slight increase in hospitalizations was observed in some countries after 180 days of vaccination, underscoring the need for continued vigilance. Furthermore, the ICU patient rates decreased as vaccination rates increased across most countries. Within 120 days, several countries achieved an ICU patient rate of 20 per million, highlighting the effectiveness of vaccination in preventing severe cases requiring intensive care.

Conclusion

COVID-19 vaccination has proven to be very much effective in reducing the incidence of cases, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. However, ongoing surveillance, variant monitoring, and adaptive vaccination strategies are crucial for maximizing the benefits of vaccination and effectively controlling the spread of the virus.

Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study

Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of susceptibility and infectivity by person-type. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we estimate age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates using data from a prospective household-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 307 households containing 1,209 persons were included from August 2020 until March 2021. Follow-up of households took place between August 2020 and August 2021 with maximal follow-up per household mostly limited to 161 days. Almost 1 out of 5 households (59/307) had evidence of an introduction of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates in our study population with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. Best fitting transmission models included increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses indicate that vaccination of adults can strongly reduce household infection attack rates and that adding adolescent vaccination offers limited added benefit.

Risk of New-Onset Long COVID Following Reinfection With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2: A Community-Based Cohort Study

Background

Little is known about the risk of long COVID following reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We estimated the likelihood of new-onset, self-reported long COVID after a second SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to a first infection.

Methods

We included UK COVID-19 Infection Survey participants who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between 1 November 2021 and 8 October 2022. The primary outcome was self-reported long COVID 12-20 weeks after each infection. Separate analyses were performed for those <16 years and ≥16 years. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for new-onset long COVID using logistic regression, comparing second to first infections, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and calendar date of infection, plus vaccination status in participants ≥16 years of age.

Results

Overall, long COVID was reported by those ≥16 years after 4.0% and 2.4% of first and second infections, respectively; the corresponding estimates among those aged <16 years were 1.0% and 0.6%. The aOR for long COVID after second compared to first infections was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], .63-.81) for those ≥16 years and 0.93 (95% CI, .57-1.53) for those <16 years.

Conclusions

The risk of new-onset long COVID after a second SARS-CoV-2 infection is lower than that after a first infection for persons aged ≥16 years, though there is no evidence of a difference in risk for those <16 years. However, there remains some risk of new-onset long COVID after a second infection, with around 1 in 40 of those aged ≥16 years and 1 in 165 of those <16 years reporting long COVID after a second infection.

Vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 for Pfizer BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca vaccines: a systematic review

The purpose of this systematic review was to report on the vaccine efficacy (VE) of three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines approved by Health Canada: Pfizer BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. Four databases were searched for primary publications on population-level VE. Ninety-two publications matched the inclusion criteria, and the extracted data were separated by vaccine type: mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) and the AstraZeneca vaccine. The median VE for PCR-positive patients and various levels of clinical disease was determined for the first and second doses of both vaccine types against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants. The median VE for PCR-positive infections against unidentified variants from an mRNA vaccine was 64.5 and 89%, respectively, after one or two doses. The median VE for PCR-positive infections against unidentified variants from the AstraZeneca vaccine was 53.4 and 69.6%, respectively, after one or two doses. The median VE for two doses of mRNA for asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infection against unidentified variants was 85.5, 93.2, and 92.2%, respectively. The median VE for two doses of AstraZeneca for asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infection against unidentified variants was 69.7, 71, and 90.2%, respectively. Vaccine efficacy numerically increased from the first to the second dose, increased from the first 2 weeks to the second 2 weeks post-vaccination for both doses, but decreased after 4 months from the second dose. Vaccine efficacy did not differ by person's age.

Determining the impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR cycle threshold values and infectious viral titres

Background

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, efforts to better understand severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral shedding and transmission in both unvaccinated and vaccinated populations remain critical to informing public health policies and vaccine development. The utility of using real time RT-PCR cycle threshold values (CT values) as a proxy for infectious viral litres from individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 is yet to be fully understood. This retrospective observational cohort study compares quantitative infectious viral litres derived from a focus-forming viral titre assay with SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR CT values in both unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals infected with the Delta strain.

Methods

Nasopharyngeal swabs positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR with a CT value <27 collected from 26 June to 17 October 2021 at the University of Vermont Medical Center Clinical Laboratory for which vaccination records were available were included. Partially vaccinated and individuals <18 years of age were excluded. Infectious viral litres were determined using a micro-focus forming assay under BSL-3 containment.

Results

In total, 119 specimens from 22 unvaccinated and 97 vaccinated individuals met all inclusion criteria and had sufficient residual volume to undergo viral titring. A negative correlation between RT-PCR CT values and viral litres was observed in both unvaccinated and vaccinated groups. No difference in mean CT value or viral titre was detected between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Viral litres did not change as a function of time since vaccination.

Conclusions

Our results add to the growing body of knowledge regarding the correlation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels and levels of infectious virus. At similar CT values, vaccination does not appear to impact an individual's potential infectivity when infected with the Delta variant.

The Impact of Culture-, Health- and Nature-Based Engagement on Mitigating the Adverse Effects of Public Health Restrictions on Wellbeing, Social Connectedness and Loneliness during COVID-19: Quantitative Evidence from a Smaller- and Larger-Scale UK Survey

Numerous UK surveys conducted during COVID-19 examined the pandemic's detrimental effects on health, and the consequences of lockdown and other public health restrictions on mental health. Some surveys considered specific populations and social inequities exacerbated during COVID-19. Fewer surveys examined the ways in which the adverse effects of public health restrictions, such as lockdown, shielding and social distancing, might be alleviated. Drawing upon self-determination theory, the purpose of the current study was to assess whether culture-, health- and nature-based engagement would mitigate the effects of these restrictions on psychological wellbeing, social connectedness and loneliness. Quantitative data from a smaller-scale survey (n = 312) and a subset of questions embedded in a larger-scale survey (n = 3647) were analyzed using univariate and multivariate methods. Frequency of engagement, whether participation was online or offline and with or without other people, and the extent to which type of participation was associated with psychological wellbeing, social connectedness and loneliness were examined. Sports and fitness, gardening and reading occurred frequently in both surveys. For the smaller-scale survey, increases in connectedness and frequency of participation and decreases in loneliness were significantly associated with improved wellbeing, whereas the type of participation and age range were not significant predictors. Outcomes from the smaller-scale survey approximated the larger-scale survey for measures of loneliness, type and frequency of participation and proportion of respondents in each age range. As the frequency of participation was a significant predictor of wellbeing, but the type of participation was not significant, the findings implied that any type of participation in a sufficient quantity would be likely to boost wellbeing.

Cladribine Tablets Mode of Action, Learning from the Pandemic: A Narrative Review

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated disease of the central nervous system, characterized by chronic, inflammatory, demyelinating, and neurodegenerative processes. MS management relies on disease-modifying drugs that suppress/modulate the immune system. Cladribine tablets (CladT) have been approved by different health authorities for patients with various forms of relapsing MS. The drug has been demonstrated to deplete CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells, with a higher effect described in the former, and to decrease total CD19+, CD20+, and naive B-cell counts. COVID-19 is expected to become endemic, suggesting its potential infection risk for immuno-compromised patients, including MS patients treated with disease-modifying drugs. We report here the available data on disease-modifying drug-treated-MS patients and COVID-19 infection and vaccination, with a focus on CladT. MS patients treated with CladT are not at higher risk of developing severe COVID-19. While anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is recommended in all MS patients with guidelines addressing vaccination timing according to the different disease-modifying drugs, no vaccination timing restrictions seem to be necessary for cladribine, based on its mechanism of action and available evidence. Published data suggest that CladT treatment does not impact the production of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after COVID-19 vaccination, possibly due to its relative sparing effect on naïve B-cells and the rapid B-cell reconstitution following treatment. Slightly lower specific T-cell responses are likely not impacting the risk of breakthrough COVID-19. It could be stated that cladribine's transient effect on innate immune cells likely contributes to maintaining an adequate first line of defense against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 infection risks after primary vaccination with BNT162b2, BBIBP-CorV, or ChAdOx1-nCOV-19 and after homologous and heterologous booster vaccinations with these vaccines and evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection profiles

Background

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants has significantly increased the number of cases of COVID-19 among vaccinated individuals, raising concerns about the effectiveness of current vaccines. The aim of this study was to analyze the SARS-CoV-2 infection risks after primary vaccination with BNT162b2, BBIBP-CorV, or ChAdOx1-nCOV-19 and after homologues and heterologous booster vaccinations with these vaccines, as well as the profiles of reinfected patients.

Methods

We analyzed retrospectively 1082 patients vaccinated or unvaccinated with BNT162b2, BBIBP-CorV, and/or ChAdOx1nCoV-19 vaccines to determine their SARS-CoV2 infection statuses using the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in addition to their clinical features. The infection risks of patients receiving the different vaccine regimens were compared using multivariate logistic regression analysis, comparing the adjusted OR of a positive COVID-19 test result.

Results

Among 596 vaccinated patients, 53%(n = 286) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 57%(n = 310) tested negative. Among positive cases, 10 were reinfection cases. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 1.6 (adj. OR) for patients who received one dose compared with those who received two doses (95% CI = 1.3-1.8; p < 0.01).The risk was 2.6 (adj. OR) for patients who received one dose compared with those who received three doses (95%CI = 2.1-3.3; p < 0.01), and 1.6 (adj. OR) for patients who received two doses compared with those who received three doses (95% CI = 1.3-2; p < 0.01). The patients who received two doses that were heterologous to that of the primary vaccine had the lowest risk of infection. Booster vaccinations (third dose) significantly reduced the number of positive cases with an acceptable safety profile. Higher cycle-threshold (Ct) values (indicative of viral load) were observed in vaccinated patients, whereas low Ct values were observed in unvaccinated patients.

Conclusion

A complete cycle of vaccination with homologous vaccines or heterologous vaccines resulted in an acceptable reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Further, vaccination was associated with a reduction in viral load.

Modeling the kinetics of the neutralizing antibody response against SARS-CoV-2 variants after several administrations of Bnt162b2

Because SARS-CoV-2 constantly mutates to escape from the immune response, there is a reduction of neutralizing capacity of antibodies initially targeting the historical strain against emerging Variants of Concern (VoC)s. That is why the measure of the protection conferred by vaccination cannot solely rely on the antibody levels, but also requires to measure their neutralization capacity. Here we used a mathematical model to follow the humoral response in 26 individuals that received up to three vaccination doses of Bnt162b2 vaccine, and for whom both anti-S IgG and neutralization capacity was measured longitudinally against all main VoCs. Our model could identify two independent mechanisms that led to a marked increase in measured humoral response over the successive vaccination doses. In addition to the already known increase in IgG levels after each dose, we identified that the neutralization capacity was significantly increased after the third vaccine administration against all VoCs, despite large inter-individual variability. Consequently, the model projects that the mean duration of detectable neutralizing capacity against non-Omicron VoC is between 348 days (Beta variant, 95% Prediction Intervals PI [307; 389]) and 587 days (Alpha variant, 95% PI [537; 636]). Despite the low neutralization levels after three doses, the mean duration of detectable neutralizing capacity against Omicron variants varies between 173 days (BA.5 variant, 95% PI [142; 200]) and 256 days (BA.1 variant, 95% PI [227; 286]). Our model shows the benefit of incorporating the neutralization capacity in the follow-up of patients to better inform on their level of protection against the different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Trial registration: This clinical trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, Trial IDs NCT04750720 and NCT05315583.

A collaborative approach to improving representation in viral genomic surveillance

The lack of routine viral genomic surveillance delayed the initial detection of SARS-CoV-2, allowing the virus to spread unfettered at the outset of the U.S. epidemic. Over subsequent months, poor surveillance enabled variants to emerge unnoticed. Against this backdrop, long-standing social and racial inequities have contributed to a greater burden of cases and deaths among minority groups. To begin to address these problems, we developed a new variant surveillance model geared toward building 'next generation' genome sequencing capacity at universities in or near rural areas and engaging the participation of their local communities. The resulting genomic surveillance network has generated more than 1,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes to date, including the first confirmed case in northeast Louisiana of Omicron, and the first and sixth confirmed cases in Georgia of the emergent BA.2.75 and BQ.1.1 variants, respectively. In agreement with other studies, significantly higher viral gene copy numbers were observed in Delta variant samples compared to those from Omicron BA.1 variant infections, and lower copy numbers were seen in asymptomatic infections relative to symptomatic ones. Collectively, the results and outcomes from our collaborative work demonstrate that establishing genomic surveillance capacity at smaller academic institutions in rural areas and fostering relationships between academic teams and local health clinics represent a robust pathway to improve pandemic readiness.

SARS-CoV-2-specific immune responses and clinical outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination in patients with immune-suppressive disease

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immune responses and infection outcomes were evaluated in 2,686 patients with varying immune-suppressive disease states after administration of two Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. Overall, 255 of 2,204 (12%) patients failed to develop anti-spike antibodies, with an additional 600 of 2,204 (27%) patients generating low levels (<380 AU ml-1). Vaccine failure rates were highest in ANCA-associated vasculitis on rituximab (21/29, 72%), hemodialysis on immunosuppressive therapy (6/30, 20%) and solid organ transplant recipients (20/81, 25% and 141/458, 31%). SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses were detected in 513 of 580 (88%) patients, with lower T cell magnitude or proportion in hemodialysis, allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and liver transplant recipients (versus healthy controls). Humoral responses against Omicron (BA.1) were reduced, although cross-reactive T cell responses were sustained in all participants for whom these data were available. BNT162b2 was associated with higher antibody but lower cellular responses compared to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination. We report 474 SARS-CoV-2 infection episodes, including 48 individuals with hospitalization or death from COVID-19. Decreased magnitude of both the serological and the T cell response was associated with severe COVID-19. Overall, we identified clinical phenotypes that may benefit from targeted COVID-19 therapeutic strategies.

Descriptive analysis of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak among health-care workers in a regional hospital in the Philippines

Objective

On 25 July 2022, trainees from the Field Epidemiology Training Programme in Northern Luzon, Philippines were sent to conduct an epidemiological investigation of six confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among staff of a regional hospital in Mountain Province. The investigation had three objectives: to profile the cases, identify the source and mode of transmission, and recommend prevention and control measures.

Methods

Descriptive epidemiology was used to investigate the outbreak, with the standard case definition issued by the Philippine Department of Health.

Results

A total of 167 hospital personnel and interns tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection between 6 July and 31 August 2022, with a peak in the number of cases on 20 July. Among the cases, 57 (34%) had a history of travel, with 41 (25%) having travelled to Boracay island to attend team-building activities. Most cases were asymptomatic, and the most affected group was those aged 30-34 years. The highest number of cases occurred among nurses. It was discovered that the team-building activities on Boracay did not strictly adhere to safety protocols.

Discussion

This outbreak suggests that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among health-care workers can occur through contact with other staff members outside of the hospital setting and highlights the importance of strict adherence to safety protocols to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

The dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated and vaccinated populations in Mumbai, India, between 28 December 2020 and 30 August 2021

The emergence and evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants that could compromise vaccine efficacy (VE) with re-infections in immunized individuals have necessitated continuous surveillance of VE. Here, the occurrence and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the context of vaccination during the second wave of infection in Mumbai were evaluated. RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values of the open reading frame (ORF)/envelope (E)/nucleocapsid (N) genes obtained from a total of 42415 samples, comprising unvaccinated (96.88%) and vaccinated cases (3.12%) were analyzed between December 28, 2020, and August 30, 2021. A lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated cases (5.07%) compared to partially vaccinated cases (6.5%) and unvaccinated cases (13.453%) was recorded. VE was significant after the first dose of vaccination (ORF gene p-value = 0.003429, and E/N gene p-value = 0.000866). Furthermore, VE was observed to be significant when the post-immunization (first dose) period was stratified to within 30 days (ORF gene p-value = 0.0094 and E/N gene p-value = 0.0023) and to 60 days following the second dose of vaccination (ORF gene p-value = 0.0238). Also, significantly higher efficacy was observed within individuals receiving two doses compared to a single dose (ORF gene p-value = 0.0132 and E/N gene p-value = 0.0387). The emergence of breakthrough infections was also evident (odds ratio= 0.34; 95% confidence interval= 0.27-0.43). Interestingly, viral loads trended towards being higher in some groups of partially vaccinated individuals compared to completely vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Finally, our results delineated a significantly higher incidence of SARS-CoV-2 acquisition in males, asymptomatic individuals, individuals with comorbidities, and those who were unvaccinated.

Waning cellular immune responses and predictive factors in maintaining cellular immunity against SARS-CoV-2 six months after BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination

Several clinical trials have shown that the humoral response produced by anti-spike antibodies elicited by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines gradually declines. The kinetics, durability and influence of epidemiological and clinical factors on cellular immunity have not been fully elucidated. We analyzed cellular immune responses elicited by BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines in 321 health care workers using whole blood interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) release assays. IFN-γ, induced by CD4 + and CD8 + T cells stimulated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike epitopes (Ag2), levels were highest at 3 weeks after the second vaccination (6 W) and decreased by 37.4% at 3 months (4 M) and 60.0% at 6 months (7 M), the decline of which seemed slower than that of anti-spike antibody levels. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the levels of IFN-γ induced by Ag2 at 7 M were significantly correlated with age, dyslipidemia, focal adverse reactions to full vaccination, lymphocyte and monocyte counts in whole blood, Ag2 levels before the second vaccination, and Ag2 levels at 6 W. We clarified the dynamics and predictive factors for the long-lasting effects of cellular immune responses. The results emphasize the need for a booster vaccine from the perspective of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-elicited cellular immunity.

Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study

Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of individual susceptibility and infectivity. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is often the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we use data from a prospective household-based study to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates in the Netherlands from August 2020 to August 2021. Introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates are estimated with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. The best fitting transmission models include increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses show that vaccination of adults could have strongly reduced infection attack rates in households and that adding adolescent vaccination would have offered limited added benefit.

One year safety and immunogenicity of AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19): Final analysis of a randomized, placebo-controlled phase 1/2 trial in Japan

BACKGROUND

Long duration trial data for two-dose COVID-19 vaccines primary series' are uncommon due to unblinding and additional doses. We report one-year follow-up results from a phase 1/2 trial of AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) in Japan.

METHODS

Adults (n = 256) seronegative for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) were stratified by age, 18-55 (n = 128), 56-69 (n = 86) and ≥70-year-old (n = 42), and randomized 3:1 to AZD1222 or placebo. Safety, immunogenicity, and exploratory efficacy data were collected until study Day 365.

RESULTS

Safety was consistent with previous reports. In AZD1222 vaccinees, humoral responses against SARS-CoV-2 steadily declined over time. By Day 365, anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike-binding (spike) and receptor-binding domain (RBD) mean antibody titers remained above Day 15 levels and pseudovirus neutralizing antibodies were undetectable in many participants.

CONCLUSIONS

AZD1222 is immunogenic and well tolerated in Japanese adults. Expected waning in anti-SARS-CoV-2 humoral responses was observed; spike and RBD antibody titers remained elevated. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04568031).

Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4/5 variant following booster vaccination or breakthrough infection in the UK

Following primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, whether boosters or breakthrough infections provide greater protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection is incompletely understood. Here we investigated SARS-CoV-2 antibody correlates of protection against new Omicron BA.4/5 (re-)infections and anti-spike IgG antibody trajectories after a third/booster vaccination or breakthrough infection following second vaccination in 154,149 adults ≥18 y from the United Kingdom general population. Higher antibody levels were associated with increased protection against Omicron BA.4/5 infection and breakthrough infections were associated with higher levels of protection at any given antibody level than boosters. Breakthrough infections generated similar antibody levels to boosters, and the subsequent antibody declines were slightly slower than after boosters. Together our findings show breakthrough infection provides longer-lasting protection against further infections than booster vaccinations. Our findings, considered alongside the risks of severe infection and long-term consequences of infection, have important implications for vaccine policy.

What we talk about when we talk about COVID-19 vaccination campaign impact: a narrative review

Background

The lack of precise definitions and terminological consensus about the impact studies of COVID-19 vaccination leads to confusing statements from the scientific community about what a vaccination impact study is.

Objective

The present work presents a narrative review, describing and discussing COVID-19 vaccination impact studies, mapping their relevant characteristics, such as study design, approaches and outcome variables, while analyzing their similarities, distinctions, and main insights.

Methods

The articles screening, regarding title, abstract, and full-text reading, included papers addressing perspectives about the impact of vaccines on population outcomes. The screening process included articles published before June 10, 2022, based on the initial papers' relevance to this study's research topics. The main inclusion criteria were data analyses and study designs based on statistical modelling or comparison of pre- and post-vaccination population.

Results

The review included 18 studies evaluating the vaccine impact in a total of 48 countries, including 32 high-income countries (United States, Israel, and 30 Western European countries) and 16 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, and 14 Eastern European countries). We summarize the main characteristics of the vaccination impact studies analyzed in this narrative review.

Conclusion

Although all studies claim to address the impact of a vaccination program, they differ significantly in their objectives since they adopt different definitions of impact, methodologies, and outcome variables. These and other differences are related to distinct data sources, designs, analysis methods, models, and approaches.

Impact of age and comorbidities on SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-induced T cell immunity

BACKGROUND

Older age and chronic disease are important risk factors for developing severe COVID-19. At population level, vaccine-induced immunity substantially reduces the risk of severe COVID-19 disease and hospitalization. However, the relative impact of humoral and cellular immunity on protection from breakthrough infection and severe disease is not fully understood.

METHODS

In a study cohort of 655 primarily older study participants (median of 63 years (IQR: 51-72)), we determined serum levels of Spike IgG antibodies using a Multiantigen Serological Assay and quantified the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 Spike-specific CD4 + and CD8 + T cells using activation induced marker assay. This enabled characterization of suboptimal vaccine-induced cellular immunity. The risk factors of being a cellular hypo responder were assessed using logistic regression. Further follow-up of study participants allowed for an evaluation of the impact of T cell immunity on breakthrough infections.

RESULTS

We show reduced serological immunity and frequency of CD4 + Spike-specific T cells in the oldest age group (≥75 years) and higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) categories. Male sex, age group ≥75 years, and CCI > 0 is associated with an increased likelihood of being a cellular hypo-responder while vaccine type is a significant risk factor. Assessing breakthrough infections, no protective effect of T cell immunity is identified.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 Spike-specific immune responses in both the cellular and serological compartment of the adaptive immune system increase with each vaccine dose and are progressively lower with older age and higher prevalence of comorbidities. The findings contribute to the understanding of the vaccine response in individuals with increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease and hospitalization.

Human immune and gut microbial parameters associated with inter-individual variations in COVID-19 mRNA vaccine-induced immunity

COVID-19 mRNA vaccines induce protective adaptive immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in most individuals, but there is wide variation in levels of vaccine-induced antibody and T-cell responses. However, the mechanisms underlying this inter-individual variation remain unclear. Here, using a systems biology approach based on multi-omics analyses of human blood and stool samples, we identified several factors that are associated with COVID-19 vaccine-induced adaptive immune responses. BNT162b2-induced T cell response is positively associated with late monocyte responses and inversely associated with baseline mRNA expression of activation protein 1 (AP-1) transcription factors. Interestingly, the gut microbial fucose/rhamnose degradation pathway is positively correlated with mRNA expression of AP-1, as well as a gene encoding an enzyme producing prostaglandin E2 (PGE2), which promotes AP-1 expression, and inversely correlated with BNT162b2-induced T-cell responses. These results suggest that baseline AP-1 expression, which is affected by commensal microbial activity, is a negative correlate of BNT162b2-induced T-cell responses.

Lag-time effects of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in German hospitals and intensive-care units

Background

The Efficacy and effectiveness of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 have clearly been shown by randomized trials and observational studies. Despite these successes on the individual level, vaccination of the population is essential to relieving hospitals and intensive care units. In this context, understanding the effects of vaccination and its lag-time on the population-level dynamics becomes necessary to adapt the vaccination campaigns and prepare for future pandemics.

Methods

This work applied a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag linear model on German data from a scientific data platform to quantify the effects of vaccination and its lag times on the number of hospital and intensive care patients, adjusting for the influences of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their time trends. We separately evaluated the effects of the first, second and third doses administered in Germany.

Results

The results revealed a decrease in the number of hospital and intensive care patients for high vaccine coverage. The vaccination provides a significant protective effect when at least approximately 40% of people are vaccinated, whatever the dose considered. We also found a time-delayed effect of the vaccination. Indeed, the effect on the number of hospital patients is immediate for the first and second doses while for the third dose about 15 days are necessary to have a strong protective effect. Concerning the effect on the number of intensive care patients, a significant protective response was obtained after a lag time of about 15-20 days for the three doses. However, complex time trends, e.g. due to new variants, which are independent of vaccination make the detection of these findings challenging.

Conclusion

Our results provide additional information about the protective effects of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2; they are in line with previous findings and complement the individual-level evidence of clinical trials. Findings from this work could help public health authorities efficiently direct their actions against SARS-CoV-2 and be well-prepared for future pandemics.

Ethnic differences in cellular and humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in UK healthcare workers: a cross-sectional analysis

Background

Few studies have compared SARS-CoV-2 vaccine immunogenicity by ethnic group. We sought to establish whether cellular and humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination differ according to ethnicity in UK Healthcare workers (HCWs).

Methods

In this cross-sectional analysis, we used baseline data from two immunological cohort studies conducted in HCWs in Leicester, UK. Blood samples were collected between March 3, and September 16, 2021. We excluded HCW who had not received two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine at the time of sampling and those who had serological evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Outcome measures were SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific total antibody titre, neutralising antibody titre and ELISpot count. We compared our outcome measures by ethnic group using univariable (t tests and rank-sum tests depending on distribution) and multivariable (linear regression for antibody titres and negative binomial regression for ELISpot counts) tests. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for age, sex, vaccine type, length of interval between vaccine doses and time between vaccine administration and sample collection and expressed as adjusted geometric mean ratios (aGMRs) or adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs). To assess differences in the early immune response to vaccination we also conducted analyses in a subcohort who provided samples between 14 and 50 days after their second dose of vaccine.

Findings

The total number of HCWs in each analysis were 401 for anti-spike antibody titres, 345 for neutralising antibody titres and 191 for ELISpot. Overall, 25.4% (19.7% South Asian and 5.7% Black/Mixed/Other) were from ethnic minority groups. In analyses including the whole cohort, neutralising antibody titres were higher in South Asian HCWs than White HCWs (aGMR 1.47, 95% CI [1.06-2.06], P = 0.02) as were T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 S1 peptides (aIRR 1.75, 95% CI [1.05-2.89], P = 0.03). In a subcohort sampled between 14 and 50 days after second vaccine dose, SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific antibody and neutralising antibody geometric mean titre (GMT) was higher in South Asian HCWs compared to White HCWs (9616 binding antibody units (BAU)/ml, 95% CI [7178-12,852] vs 5888 BAU/ml [5023-6902], P = 0.008 and 2851 95% CI [1811-4487] vs 1199 [984-1462], P < 0.001 respectively), increments which persisted after adjustment (aGMR 1.26, 95% CI [1.01-1.58], P = 0.04 and aGMR 2.01, 95% CI [1.34-3.01], P = 0.001). SARS-CoV-2 ELISpot responses to S1 and whole spike peptides (S1 + S2 response) were higher in HCWs from South Asian ethnic groups than those from White groups (S1: aIRR 2.33, 95% CI [1.09-4.94], P = 0.03; spike: aIRR, 2.04, 95% CI [1.02-4.08]).

Interpretation

This study provides evidence that, in an infection naïve cohort, humoral and cellular immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination are stronger in South Asian HCWs than White HCWs. These differences are most clearly seen in the early period following vaccination. Further research is required to understand the underlying mechanisms, whether differences persist with further exposure to vaccine or virus, and the potential impact on vaccine effectiveness.

Funding

DIRECT and BELIEVE have received funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) through the COVID-19 National Core Studies Immunity (NCSi) programme (MC_PC_20060).

Do pathogens always evolve to be less virulent? The virulence–transmission trade-off in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

The direction the evolution of virulence takes in connection with any pathogen is a long-standing question. Formerly, it was theorized that pathogens should always evolve to be less virulent. As observations were not in line with this theoretical outcome, new theories emerged, chief among them the transmission–virulence trade-off hypotheses, which predicts an intermediate level of virulence as the endpoint of evolution. At the moment, we are very much interested in the future evolution of COVID-19’s virulence. Here, we show that the disease does not fulfill all the assumptions of the hypothesis. In the case of COVID-19, a higher viral load does not mean a higher risk of death; immunity is not long-lasting; other hosts can act as reservoirs for the virus; and death as a consequence of viral infection does not shorten the infectious period. Consequently, we cannot predict the short- or long-term evolution of the virulence of COVID-19.

Green Tea Consumption and the COVID-19 Omicron Pandemic Era: Pharmacology and Epidemiology

In spite of the development of numerous vaccines for the prevention of COVID-19 and the approval of several drugs for its treatment, there is still a great need for effective and inexpensive therapies against this disease. Previously, we showed that green tea and tea catechins interfere with coronavirus replication as well as coronavirus 3CL protease activity, and also showed lower COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in countries with higher green tea consumption. However, it is not clear whether green tea is still effective against the newer SARS-CoV-2 variants including omicron. It is also not known whether higher green tea consumption continues to contribute to lower COVID-19 morbidity and mortality now that vaccination rates in many countries are high. Here, we attempted to update the information regarding green tea in relation to COVID-19. Using pharmacological and ecological approaches, we found that EGCG as well as green tea inhibit the activity of the omicron variant 3CL protease efficiently, and there continues to be pronounced differences in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality between groups of countries with high and low green tea consumption as of December 6, 2022. These results collectively suggest that green tea continues to be effective against COVID-19 despite the new omicron variants and increased vaccination.

Anxiety and fear of COVID-19 in the UK general population: A cross-sectional study

There is still a generalized feeling of uncertainty in the population due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, as restrictions on daily routines and social contact, accompanied by a large number of infections, negatively affect different areas of people's lives and, therefore, their mental health. The aim of the present study was to assess the presence of anxiety and fear of COVID-19 in the general UK population, using the Anxiety and Fear to COVID-19 Assessment Scale (Ansiedad y Miedo al COVID-19) (AMICO) scale. A descriptive, cross-sectional study based on a questionnaire was conducted in a sample of the UK general population in 2021. Socio-demographic and employment variables were included. The AMICO scale was included to measure fear and anxiety about COVID-19. The relationship between variables was studied with a categorical regression analysis. In general, participants regarded themselves as well-informed about the pandemic, although 62.6% had only received 1 dose of the vaccine. Regarding the AMICO scale the total score was 4.85 (out of 10; standard deviation 2.398). Women showed higher scores for the AMICO than men. The bivariate analysis revealed statistically significant differences in relation to self-confidence, amount of information received, and vaccination variables as related to the mean AMICO scores. An average level of anxiety and fear of COVID-19 is shown in the general UK population, which is lower than most of the studies that assessed the impact of the pandemic on the general population.

Molecular Characterization of AZD7442 (Tixagevimab-Cilgavimab) Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Subvariants

Therapeutic anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) provide immunosuppressed and vulnerable populations with prophylactic and treatment interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). AZD7442 (tixagevimab-cilgavimab) is a combination of extended-half-life neutralizing MAbs that bind to distinct epitopes on the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. The Omicron variant of concern carries mutations at >35 positions in the spike protein and has undergone further genetic diversification since its emergence in November 2021. Here, we characterize the in vitro neutralization activity of AZD7442 toward major viral subvariants circulating worldwide during the first 9 months of the Omicron wave. BA.2 and its derived subvariants showed the highest susceptibility to AZD7442, while BA.1 and BA.1.1 showed a lower susceptibility. BA.4/BA.5 had a susceptibility level intermediate between BA.1 and BA.2. Mutagenesis of parental Omicron subvariant spike proteins was performed to establish a molecular model to describe the underlying determinants of neutralization by AZD7442 and its component MAbs. The concurrent mutation of residues at positions 446 and 493, located in the tixagevimab and cilgavimab binding sites, was sufficient to enhance in vitro susceptibility of BA.1 to AZD7442 and its component MAbs to levels similar to the Wuhan-Hu-1+D614G virus. AZD7442 maintained neutralization activity against all Omicron subvariants tested up to and including BA.5. The evolving nature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic warrants continuing real-time molecular surveillance and assessment of in vitro activity of MAbs used in prophylaxis against and the treatment of COVID-19. IMPORTANCE MAbs are key therapeutic options for COVID-19 prophylaxis and treatment in immunosuppressed and vulnerable populations. Due to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Omicron, it is vital to ensure that neutralization is maintained for MAb-based interventions. We studied the in vitro neutralization of AZD7442 (tixagevimab-cilgavimab), a cocktail of two long-acting MAbs targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, toward Omicron subvariants circulating from November 2021 to July 2022. AZD7442 neutralized major Omicron subvariants up to and including BA.5. The mechanism of action responsible for the lower in vitro susceptibility of BA.1 to AZD7442 was investigated using in vitro mutagenesis and molecular modeling. A combination of mutations at two spike protein positions, namely, 446 and 493, was sufficient to enhance BA.1 susceptibility to AZD7442 to levels similar to the Wuhan-Hu-1+D614G ancestral virus. The evolving nature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic warrants continuing real-time global molecular surveillance and mechanistic studies of therapeutic MAbs for COVID-19.

Comparative effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccines against COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Both BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines have shown high efficacy against COVID-19 in randomized controlled trials. However, their comparative effectiveness against COVID-19 is unclear in the real world. We evaluated the comparative effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccines against COVID-19 in the UK general population.

METHODS

We emulated a target trial using IQVIA Medical Research Database (IMRD), an electronic primary care database from the UK (2021). We included 1,311,075 participants, consisting of 637,549 men and 673,526 women age≥18 years, who received vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 between January 1 and August 31, 2021. The outcomes consisted of confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalisation for COVID-19 and death from COVID-19 in the IMRD. We performed a cox-proportional hazard model to compare the risk of each outcome variable between the two vaccines adjusting for potential confounders with time-stratified overlap weighting of propensity score (PS).

RESULTS

During a mean of 6.7 months of follow-up, 20,070 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in individuals who received BNT162b2 vaccine (PS weighted incidence rate: 3.65 per 1000 person-months), and 31,611 SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in those who received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (PS weighted incidence rate: 5.25 per 1000 person-months). The time-stratified PS weighted rate difference of SARS-CoV-2 infection for BNT162b2 group vs. ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group was -1.60 per 1000 person-months (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.76 to -1.43 per 1000 person-months), and the hazard ratio was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.68 to 0.71). The results were similar across the stratum of sex, age (<65 and ≥65 years), and study periods (i.e., alpha-variant predominance period and delta-variant predominance period). The PS weighted incidence of hospitalisation for COVID-19 was also lower in the BNT162b2 vaccine group than that in the ChAdOx1 vaccine group (RD: -0.09, 95%CI: -0.13 to -0.05 per 1000 person-months; HR: 0.65, 95%CI: 0.57 to 0.74). No significant difference in the risk of death from COVID-19 was observed between the two comparison groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based study, the BNT162b2 vaccine appears to be more efficacious than the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalisation for COVID-19 but not death from COVID-19.

Recommending COVID-19 vaccination for adolescents in primary care

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccines are available for adolescents in the United States, but many parents are hesitant to have their children vaccinated. The advice of primary care professionals strongly influences vaccine uptake.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the willingness of primary care professionals (PCPs) to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for adolescents.

METHODS

Participants were a national sample of 1,047 US adolescent primary care professionals. They participated in an online survey in early 2021, after a COVID-19 vaccine had been approved for adults but before approval for adolescents. Respondents included physicians (71%), advanced practice providers (17%), and nurses (12%). We identified correlates of willingness to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for adolescents using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The majority (89%) of respondents were willing to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for adolescents, with advanced practice providers and nurses being less likely than paediatricians to recommend vaccination (84% vs. 94%, aOR 0.47, 95% CI 0.23-0.92). Respondents who had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine were more likely to recommend adolescent vaccination (92% vs. 69%, aOR 4.20, 95% CI 2.56-6.87) as were those with more years in practice (94% vs. 88%, aOR 2.93, 95% CI 1.79-4.99). Most respondents (96%) said they would need some measure of support in order to provide COVID-19 vaccination to adolescents, with vaccine safety and efficacy information being the most commonly cited need (80%).

CONCLUSION

Adolescent primary care professionals were generally willing to recommend COVID-19 vaccination. However, most indicated a need for additional resources to be able to administer COVID-19 vaccines at their clinic.

A multicenter international prospective study of the validity and reliability of a COVID-19-specific health-related quality of life questionnaire

PURPOSE

To develop and validate a health-related quality of life (HRQoL) questionnaire for patients with current or previous coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in an international setting.

METHODS

This multicenter international methodology study followed standardized guidelines for a four-phase questionnaire development. Here, we report on the pretesting and validation of our international questionnaire. Adults with current or previous COVID-19, in institutions or at home were eligible. In the pretesting, 54 participants completed the questionnaire followed by interviews to identify administration problems and evaluate content validity. Thereafter, 371 participants completed the revised questionnaire and a debriefing form to allow preliminary psychometric analysis. Validity and reliability were assessed (correlation-based methods, Cronbach's α, and intra-class correlation coefficient).

RESULTS

Eleven countries within and outside Europe enrolled patients. From the pretesting, 71 of the 80 original items fulfilled the criteria for item-retention. Most participants (80%) completed the revised 71-item questionnaire within 15 min, on paper (n = 175) or digitally (n = 196). The final questionnaire included 61 items that fulfilled criteria for item retention or were important to subgroups. Item-scale correlations were > 0.7 for all but nine items. Internal consistency (range 0.68-0.92) and test-retest results (all but one scale > 0.7) were acceptable. The instrument consists of 15 multi-item scales and six single items.

CONCLUSION

The Oslo COVID-19 QLQ-W61© is an international, stand-alone, multidimensional HRQoL questionnaire that can assess the symptoms, functioning, and overall quality of life in COVID-19 patients. It is available for use in research and clinical practice. Further psychometric validation in larger patient samples will be performed.

A Spatiotemporal Solution to Control COVID-19 Transmission at the Community Scale for Returning to Normalcy: COVID-19 Symptom Onset Risk Spatiotemporal Analysis

BACKGROUND

Following the recent COVID-19 pandemic, returning to normalcy has become the primary goal of global cities. The key for returning to normalcy is to avoid affecting social and economic activities while supporting precise epidemic control. Estimation models for the spatiotemporal spread of the epidemic at the refined scale of cities that support precise epidemic control are limited. For most of 2021, Hong Kong has remained at the top of the "global normalcy index" because of its effective responses. The urban-community-scale spatiotemporal onset risk prediction model of COVID-19 symptom has been used to assist in the precise epidemic control of Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVE

Based on the spatiotemporal prediction models of COVID-19 symptom onset risk, the aim of this study was to develop a spatiotemporal solution to assist in precise prevention and control for returning to normalcy.

METHODS

Over the years 2020 and 2021, a spatiotemporal solution was proposed and applied to support the epidemic control in Hong Kong. An enhanced urban-community-scale geographic model was proposed to predict the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset by quantifying the impact of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccination, and the imported case risk. The generated prediction results could be then applied to establish the onset risk predictions over the following days, the identification of high-onset-risk communities, the effectiveness analysis of response measures implemented, and the effectiveness simulation of upcoming response measures. The applications could be integrated into a web-based platform to assist the antiepidemic work.

RESULTS

Daily predicted onset risk in 291 tertiary planning units (TPUs) of Hong Kong from January 18, 2020, to April 22, 2021, was obtained from the enhanced prediction model. The prediction accuracy in the following 7 days was over 80%. The prediction results were used to effectively assist the epidemic control of Hong Kong in the following application examples: identified communities within high-onset-risk always only accounted for 2%-25% in multiple epidemiological scenarios; effective COVID-19 response measures, such as prohibiting public gatherings of more than 4 people were found to reduce the onset risk by 16%-46%; through the effect simulation of the new compulsory testing measure, the onset risk was found to be reduced by more than 80% in 42 (14.43%) TPUs and by more than 60% in 96 (32.99%) TPUs.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, this solution can support sustainable and targeted pandemic responses for returning to normalcy. Faced with the situation that may coexist with SARS-CoV-2, this study can not only assist global cities in responding to the future epidemics effectively but also help to restore social and economic activities and people's normal lives.

Breakthrough infections, hospital admissions, and mortality after major COVID-19 vaccination profiles: A prospective cohort study

Background

Several COVID-19 vaccination rollout strategies are implemented. Real-world data from the large-scale, government-mandated Central Vaccination Center (CVC), Thailand, could be used for comparing the breakthrough infection, across all available COVID-19 vaccination profiles.

Methods

This prospective cohort study combined the vaccine profiles from the CVC registry with three nationally validated outcome datasets to assess the breakthrough COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death among Thais individuals who received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. The outcomes were analyzed by comparing vaccine profiles to investigate the shot effect and homologous effect.

Findings

Of 2,407,315 Thais who had at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, 63,469 (2.75%) had breakthrough infection, 42,001 (1.79%) had been hospitalized, and 431 (0.02%) died. Per one vaccination shot added, there was an 18% risk reduction of breakthrough infection (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.80-0.82), a 25% risk reduction of hospitalization (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.73-0.76), and a 96% risk reduction of mortality (HR 0.04, 95% CI 0.03-0.06). The heterologous two-shot vaccine profiles had a higher protective effect against infection, hospitalization, and mortality compared to the homologous counterparts.

Interpretation

COVID-19 breakthrough infection, hospitalization, and death differ across vaccination profiles that had a different number of shots and types of vaccines.

Funding

This study did not involve any funding.