Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic

Multiple pandemic waves vs multi-period/multi-phasic epidemics: Global shape of the COVID-19 pandemic

The overall course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Western countries has been characterized by complex sequences of phases. In the period before the arrival of vaccines, these phases were mainly due to the alternation between the strengthening/lifting of social distancing measures, with the aim to balance the protection of health and that of the society as a whole. After the arrival of vaccines, this multi-phasic character was further emphasized by the complicated deployment of vaccination campaigns and the onset of virus' variants. To cope with this multi-phasic character, we propose a theoretical approach to the modeling of overall pandemic courses, that we term multi-period/multi-phasic, based on a specific definition of phase. This allows a unified and parsimonious representation of complex epidemic courses even when vaccination and virus' variants are considered, through sequences of weak ergodic renewal equations that become fully ergodic when appropriate conditions are met. Specific hypotheses on epidemiological and intervention parameters allow reduction to simple models. The framework suggest a simple, theory driven, approach to data explanation that allows an accurate reproduction of the overall course of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy since its beginning (February 2020) up to omicron onset, confirming the validity of the concept.

Pursuing equitable access to vaccines for the next epidemic

To mitigate the pandemic stemming from COVID-19, numerous nations have initiated extensive vaccination campaigns for their citizens since late 2020. While affluent countries have predominantly received vaccine allocations, fewer doses have been dispatched to nations with lower average incomes. This unequal distribution not only widens the disparity between wealthy and impoverished regions but also prolongs the pandemic, evident in the emergence of new viral variants. Our research delves into the correlation between the duration of the pandemic and the timing of vaccine distribution between two countries with migratory ties. By using a pair of coupled susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased models incorporating vaccination data, we demonstrate that timely sharing of vaccines benefits both nations, regardless of the presence of viral variants. This underscores that in the realm of vaccine distribution, self-interest and altruism are not mutually exclusive.

Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings

The rapid development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 altered the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. In most countries, vaccinations were initially targeted at high-risk populations, including older individuals and healthcare workers. Now, despite substantial infection- and vaccine-induced immunity in host populations worldwide, waning immunity and the emergence of novel variants continue to cause significant waves of infection and disease. Policy makers must determine how to deploy booster vaccinations, particularly when constraints in vaccine supply, delivery and cost mean that booster vaccines cannot be administered to everyone. A key question is therefore whether older individuals should again be prioritised for vaccination, or whether alternative strategies (e.g. offering booster vaccines to the individuals who have most contacts with others and therefore drive infection) can instead offer indirect protection to older individuals. Here, we use mathematical modelling to address this question, considering SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a range of countries with different socio-economic backgrounds. We show that the population structures of different countries can have a pronounced effect on the impact of booster vaccination, even when identical booster vaccination targeting strategies are adopted. However, under the assumed transmission model, prioritising older individuals for booster vaccination consistently leads to the most favourable public health outcomes in every setting considered. This remains true for a range of assumptions about booster vaccine supply and timing, and for different assumed policy objectives of booster vaccination.

Decisive reversal of lethal coronavirus disease 2019 in senescent hamster by synchronic antiviral and immunoregulatory intervention

The poor prognosis observed in elderly individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains a serious clinical burden and the underlying mechanism is unclear, which necessities detailed investigation of disease characteristics and research for efficient countermeasures. To simulate lethal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in senescent human patients, 80-week-old male hamsters are intranasally inoculated with different doses of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 variant. Exposure to a low dose of the Omicron BA.5 variant results in early activation of the innate immune response, followed by rapid viral clearance and minimal lung damage. However, a high dose of BA.5 results in impaired interferon signaling, cytokine storm, uncontrolled viral replication, and severe lung injury. To decrease viral load and reverse the deterioration of COVID-19, a new bio-mimic decoy called CoVR-MV is used as a preventive or therapeutic agent. Administration of CoVR-MV as a preventive or therapeutic intervention in the early stages of infection can effectively suppress viral load, regulate the immune response, and rescue animals from death and critical illness. These findings underscore the risk associated with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 exposure in senescent hamsters and highlight the importance of early intervention to prevent disease progression.

Improving vaccine equity by increasing vaccine thermostability

The development, manufacture, and deployment of new vaccine technologies to combat SARS-CoV-2 enabled an unparalleled rapid response to the emerging health threat. However, the unequal global distribution of these vaccines highlighted a major gap in existing thermotolerance profiles and cold chain infrastructure that needs to be addressed to maximize their global health impact.

From bench to bedside: potential of translational research in COVID-19 and beyond

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been around for more than 3 years now. However, due to constant viral evolution, novel variants are emerging, leaving old treatment protocols redundant. As treatment options dwindle, infection rates continue to rise and seasonal infection surges become progressively common across the world, rapid solutions are required. With genomic and proteomic methods generating enormous amounts of data to expand our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 biology, there is an urgent requirement for the development of novel therapeutic methods that can allow translational research to flourish. In this review, we highlight the current state of COVID-19 in the world and the effects of post-infection sequelae. We present the contribution of translational research in COVID-19, with various current and novel therapeutic approaches, including antivirals, monoclonal antibodies and vaccines, as well as alternate treatment methods such as immunomodulators, currently being studied and reiterate the importance of translational research in the development of various strategies to contain COVID-19.

Interplay between Comorbidities and Long COVID: Challenges and Multidisciplinary Approaches

Long COVID, a name often given to the persistent symptoms following acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, poses a multifaceted challenge for health. This review explores the intrinsic relationship between comorbidities and autoimmune responses in shaping the trajectory of long COVID. Autoantibodies have emerged as significant players in COVID-19 pathophysiology, with implications for disease severity and progression. Studies show immune dysregulation persisting months after infection, marked by activated innate immune cells and high cytokine levels. The presence of autoantibodies against various autoantigens suggests their potential as comorbid factors in long COVID. Additionally, the formation of immune complexes may lead to severe disease progression, highlighting the urgency for early detection and intervention. Furthermore, long COVID is highly linked to cardiovascular complications and neurological symptoms, posing challenges in diagnosis and management. Multidisciplinary approaches, including vaccination, tailored rehabilitation, and pharmacological interventions, are used for mitigating long COVID's burden. However, numerous challenges persist, from evolving diagnostic criteria to addressing the psychosocial impact and predicting disease outcomes. Leveraging AI-based applications holds promise in enhancing patient management and improving our understanding of long COVID. As research continues to unfold, unravelling the complexities of long COVID remains paramount for effective intervention and patient care.

Soft interface confined DNA walker for sensitive and specific detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Nucleic acid detection is conducive to preventing the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. In this work, we successfully designed a soft interface confined DNA walker by anchoring hairpin reporter probes on cell membranes for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants. In the presence of target RNA, the cyclic self-assembly reaction occurred between hairpin probes H1 and H2, and the continuous walking of target RNA on cell membranes led to the gradual amplification of fluorescence signal. The enrichment of H1 on membranes and the unique fluidity of membranes promoted the collision efficiency between DNA strands in the reaction process, endowing this method with high sensitivity. In addition, the double-blind test of synthetic RNA in 5% normal human serum demonstrated the good stability and anti-interference in complex environment of this method, which exhibited great potential in clinical diagnostics.

Determination of prognostic markers for COVID-19 disease severity using routine blood tests and machine learning

The need for the identification of risk factors associated to COVID-19 disease severity remains urgent. Patients' care and resource allocation can be potentially different and are defined based on the current classification of disease severity. This classification is based on the analysis of clinical parameters and routine blood tests, which are not standardized across the globe. Some laboratory test alterations have been associated to COVID-19 severity, although these data are conflicting partly due to the different methodologies used across different studies. This study aimed to construct and validate a disease severity prediction model using machine learning (ML). Seventy-two patients admitted to a Brazilian hospital and diagnosed with COVID-19 through RT-PCR and/or ELISA, and with varying degrees of disease severity, were included in the study. Their electronic medical records and the results from daily blood tests were used to develop a ML model to predict disease severity. Using the above data set, a combination of five laboratorial biomarkers was identified as accurate predictors of COVID-19 severe disease with a ROC-AUC of 0.80 ​±​ 0.13. Those biomarkers included prothrombin activity, ferritin, serum iron, ATTP and monocytes. The application of the devised ML model may help rationalize clinical decision and care.

Ethical and Practical Considerations for an Agreement to Ensure Equitable Vaccine Access Comment on "More Pain, More Gain! The Delivery of COVID-19 Vaccines and the Pharmaceutical Industry's Role in Widening the Access Gap"

This paper discusses the potential of an international agreement to ensure equitable vaccine distribution, addressing the failures witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVAX was unable to prevent vaccine monopolization and unequal distribution, which led to significant disparities in vaccination rates and avoidable deaths. Any future agreement on equitable vaccine distribution must address ethical and practical issues to ensure global health equity and access. The proposed agreement should recognize healthcare as a human right and consider vaccines beyond mere commodities, emphasizing the social responsibility of pharmaceutical companies to prioritize affordability, availability, and accessibility, particularly for low-income countries (LICs). Voluntary licensing agreements are suggested as a means to enhance access to essential medicines. The paper also outlines the necessity of international cooperation, with robust compliance mechanisms, to effectively enforce such an agreement and mitigate future health crises.

Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance model combining seroprevalence and wastewater concentrations for post-vaccine disease burden estimates

BACKGROUND

Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates.

METHODS

We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible ( S ), vaccinated ( V ), variant-specific infected (I 1 andI 2 ), recovered ( R ), and seropositive ( T ) model ( S V I 2 R T ) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration.

RESULTS

Here we show the 64% county vaccination rate translate into about a 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence is a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which correspond to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration have the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study underscores the importance of continuing environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.

In search of a pan-coronavirus vaccine: next-generation vaccine design and immune mechanisms

Members of the coronaviridae family are endemic to human populations and have caused several epidemics and pandemics in recent history. In this review, we will discuss the feasibility of and progress toward the ultimate goal of creating a pan-coronavirus vaccine that can protect against infection and disease by all members of the coronavirus family. We will detail the unmet clinical need associated with the continued transmission of SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV and the four seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV-OC43, NL63, HKU1 and 229E) in humans and the potential for future zoonotic coronaviruses. We will highlight how first-generation SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and natural history studies have greatly increased our understanding of effective antiviral immunity to coronaviruses and have informed next-generation vaccine design. We will then consider the ideal properties of a pan-coronavirus vaccine and propose a blueprint for the type of immunity that may offer cross-protection. Finally, we will describe a subset of the diverse technologies and novel approaches being pursued with the goal of developing broadly or universally protective vaccines for coronaviruses.

Non-neutralizing functions in anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies

Most individuals infected with or vaccinated against COVID-19 develop antigenic neutralizing immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Although neutralizing antibodies are biomarkers of the adaptive immune response, their mere presence is insufficient to explain the protection afforded against the disease or its pathology. IgG exhibits other secondary effector functions that activate innate immune components, including complement, natural killer cells, and macrophages. The affinity for effector cells depends on the isotypes and glycosylation of IgG antibodies. The anti-spike IgG titer should be sufficient to provide significant Fc-mediated effects in severe COVID-19, mRNA, and protein subunit vaccinations. In combination with aberrant effector cells, pro-inflammatory afucosylated IgG1 and IgG3 may be detrimental in severe COVID-19. The antibody response of mRNA vaccines leads to higher fucosylation and a less inflammatory IgG profile, with a long-term shift to IgG4, which is correlated with protection from disease.

Covid19Vaxplorer: A free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 vaccine allocation comparison tool

There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available vaccines (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups to target) but LMIC often lack the resources to undergo quantitative analyses of vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a free, user-friendly online tool that simulates region-specific COVID-19 epidemics in conjunction with vaccination with the purpose of providing public health officials worldwide with a tool for vaccine allocation planning and comparison. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 vaccination. The model considers vaccination with up to three different vaccine products, primary series and boosters. We simulated partial immunity derived from waning of natural infection and vaccination. The model is embedded in an online tool, Covid19Vaxplorer that was optimized for its ease of use. By prompting users to fill information through several windows to input local parameters (e.g. cumulative and current prevalence), epidemiological parameters (e.g basic reproduction number, current social distancing interventions), vaccine parameters (e.g. vaccine efficacy, duration of immunity) and vaccine allocation (both by age groups and by vaccination status). Covid19Vaxplorer connects the user to the mathematical model and simulates, in real time, region-specific epidemics. The tool then produces key outcomes including expected numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and cases, with the possibility of simulating several scenarios of vaccine allocation at once for a side-by-side comparison. We provide two usage examples of Covid19Vaxplorer for vaccine allocation in Haiti and Afghanistan, which had as of Spring 2023, 2% and 33% of their populations vaccinated, and show that for these particular examples, using available vaccine as primary series vaccinations prevents more deaths than using them as boosters.

Causes and costs of global COVID-19 vaccine inequity

Despite the rapid development of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines and the widely recognized health and economic benefits of vaccination, there exist stark differences in vaccination rates across country income groups. While more than 70% of the population is fully vaccinated in high-income countries, vaccination rates in low-income countries are only around 30%. The paper reviews the factors behind global COVID-19 vaccine inequity and the health, social, and economic costs triggered by this inequity. The main contributors to vaccine inequity include vaccine nationalism, intellectual property rights, constraints in manufacturing capacity, poor resilience of healthcare systems, and vaccine hesitancy. Vaccine inequity has high costs, including preventable deaths and cases of illnesses in low-income countries, slow economic recovery, and large learning losses among children. Increasing vaccination rates in low-income countries is in the self-interest of higher-income countries as it may prevent the emergence of new variants and continuous disruptions to global supply chains.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the global prevalence and determinants of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake in people living with HIV

People living with HIV (PLHIV) are at higher risk of poor outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we report the pooled prevalence of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance/uptake and determinants among this vulnerable population of PLHIV based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published by 25 August 2023. Among the 54 included studies (N = 167,485 participants), 53 (N = 166,455) provided data on vaccine acceptance rate, while 27 (N = 150,926) provided uptake data. The global prevalences of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake were 67.0% and 56.6%, respectively. Acceptance and uptake rates were 86.6% and 90.1% for the European Region, 74.9% and 71.6% for the Region of the Americas, 62.3% and 78.9% for the South-East Asian Region, 64.6% and 19.3% for the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 58.0% and 35.5% for the African Region, and 57.4% and 44.0% for the Western Pacific Region. The acceptance rate increased from 65.9% in 2020 to 71.0% in 2022, and the uptake rate increased from 55.9% in 2021 to 58.1% in 2022. Men, PLHIV aged ≥40 years and those who had recently received the influenza vaccine were more likely to accept and receive the COVID-19 vaccine. Factors associated with lower uptake included Black race, other races (Latinx/Hispanic/mixed race), low education level and being unemployed. Vaccine-related factors associated with higher acceptance included belief in vaccine effectiveness, vaccine trust, perceived high susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and fear of potential COVID-19 effect in PLHIV. Sustained efforts and targeted interventions are needed to reduce regional disparities in COVID-19 vaccine uptake among PLHIV.

Model-informed health and socio-economic benefits of enhancing global equity and access to Covid-19 vaccines

We take a model-informed approach to the view that a global equitable access (GEA) to Covid-19 vaccines is the key to bring this pandemic to an end. We show that the equitable redistribution (proportional to population size) of the currently available vaccines is not sufficient to stop the pandemic, whereas a 60% increase in vaccine access (the global share of vaccinated people) would have allowed the current distribution to stop the pandemic in about a year of vaccination, saving millions of people in poor countries. We then investigate the interplay between access to vaccines and their distribution among rich and poor countries, showing that the access increase to stop the pandemic gets minimized at + 32% by the equitable distribution (- 36% in rich countries and + 60% in poor ones). To estimate the socio-economic benefits of a vaccination campaign with enhanced global equity and access (eGEA), we compare calibrated simulations of the current scenario with a hypothetical, vaccination-intensive scenario that assumes high rollouts (shown however by many rich and poor countries during the 2021-2022 vaccination campaign) and an improved equity from the current 2.5:1 to a 2:1 rich/poor-ratio of the population fractions vaccinated per day. Assuming that the corresponding + 130% of vaccine production is made possible by an Intellectual Property waiver, we show that the money saved on vaccines globally by the selected eGEA scenario overcomes the 5-year profit of the rights holders in the current situation. This justifies compensation mechanisms in exchange for the necessary licensing agreements. The good news is that the benefits of this eGEA scenario are still relevant, were we ready to implement it now.

Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low- and middle-income countries: A case study of Thailand

Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to examine the implications of various vaccination strategies, vaccine prioritization, and vaccine rollout speeds in Thailand, an upper-middle-income country experiencing vaccine shortages during the early stages of the pandemic. The model directly compares the effectiveness of several vaccination strategies, including the heterologous vaccination where CoronaVac (CV) vaccine was administered as the first dose, followed by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZ) vaccine as the second dose, under varying disease transmission dynamics. We found that the traditional AZ homologous vaccination was more effective than the CV homologous vaccination, regardless of disease transmission dynamics. However, combining CV and AZ vaccines via either parallel homologous or heterologous vaccinations was more effective than relying solely on AZ homologous vaccination. Additionally, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly aged 60 years and above was the most effective way to reduce mortality when community transmission is well-controlled. On the other hand, prioritizing workers aged 20-59 was most effective in lowering COVID-19 cases, irrespective of the transmission dynamics. Lastly, despite the vaccine prioritization strategy, rapid vaccine rollout speeds were crucial in reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths. These findings suggested that in low- and middle-income countries where early access to high-efficacy vaccines might be limited, obtaining any accessible vaccines as early as possible and using them in parallel with other higher-efficacy vaccines might be a better strategy than waiting for and relying solely on higher-efficacy vaccines.

Meme Science, Pandemic Preparedness, and the Trajectory of Failure

In this paper I analyse the implications of "flattening" the curve for long-term care residents in the Province of Ontario, Canada during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic. I then question what the role of healthcare systems are in the response to public health emergencies and problematize their status as entities in need of protection. The ethical implications of this are discussed in light of potential challenges raised by climate change.

Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia

Estimating the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence is complicated by several factors, including successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and changing population immunity from vaccination and infection. We develop an age-structured multi-strain COVID-19 transmission model and inference framework to estimate vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention impact accounting for these factors. We apply this framework to COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia and estimate that the vaccination programme averted 34.8% (95% credible interval: 34.5-35.2%) of 223,000 symptomatic cases, 49.6% (48.7-50.5%) of 5830 hospitalisations and 64.2% (63.1-65.3%) of 1540 hospital deaths that would have occurred in a scenario without vaccination up to May 2022. We estimate the booster campaign contributed 4.5%, 1.9%, and 0.4% to overall reductions in cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Our results suggest that removing lockdowns during the first two waves would have had non-linear effects on incidence by altering accumulation of population immunity. Our estimates of vaccination and booster impact differ from those for other countries due to differences in age structure, previous exposure levels and timing of variant introduction relative to vaccination, emphasising the importance of detailed analysis that accounts for these factors.

Covid19Vaxplorer: a free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Comparison Tool

Background

There are many COVID-19 vaccines currently available, however, Low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) still have large proportions of their populations unvaccinated. Decision-makers must decide how to effectively allocate available vaccines (e.g. boosters or primary series vaccination, which age groups to target) but LMIC often lack the resources to undergo quantitative analyses of vaccine allocation, resulting in ad-hoc policies. We developed Covid19Vaxplorer (https://covid19vaxplorer.fredhutch.org/), a free, user-friendly online tool that simulates region-specific COVID-19 epidemics in conjunction with vaccination with the purpose of providing public health officials worldwide with a tool for vaccine allocation planning and comparison.

Methods

We developed an age-structured mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 vaccination. The model considers vaccination with up to three different vaccine products, primary series and boosters. We simulated partial immunity derived from waning of natural infection and vaccination. The model is embedded in an online tool, Covid19Vaxplorer that was optimized for its ease of use. By prompting users to fill information through several windows to input local parameters (e.g. cumulative and current prevalence), epidemiological parameters (e.g basic reproduction number, current social distancing interventions), vaccine parameters (e.g. vaccine efficacy, duration of immunity) and vaccine allocation (both by age groups and by vaccination status). Covid19Vaxplorer connects the user to the mathematical model and simulates, in real time, region-specific epidemics. The tool then produces key outcomes including expected numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and cases, with the possibility of simulating several scenarios of vaccine allocation at once for a side-by-side comparison.

Results

We provide two usage examples of Covid19Vaxplorer for vaccine allocation in Haiti and Afghanistan, which had as of Spring 2023 2% and 33% of their populations vaccinated, and show that for these particular examples, using available vaccine as primary series vaccinations prevents more deaths than using them as boosters. Covid19Vaxplorer allows users in 183 regions in the world to compare several vaccination strategies simultaneously, adjusting parameters to their local epidemics, infrastructure and logistics. Covid19Vaxplorer is an online, free, user-friendly tool that facilitates evidence-based decision making for vaccine distribution.

The impact of national income and vaccine hesitancy on country-level COVID-19 vaccine uptake

BACKGROUND

The rapid development and rollout of COVID-19 vaccines helped reduce the pandemic's mortality burden. The vaccine rollout, however, has been uneven; it is well known that vaccination rates tend to be lower in lower income countries. Vaccine uptake, however, ultimately depends on the willingness of individuals to get vaccinated. If vaccine confidence is low, then uptake will be low, regardless of country income level. We investigated the impact on country-level COVID-19 vaccination rates of both national income and vaccine hesitancy.

METHODS

We estimated a linear regression model of COVID-19 vaccine uptake across 145 countries; this cross-sectional model was estimated at each of four time points: 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after the onset of global vaccine distribution. Vaccine uptake reflects the percentage of the population that had completed their primary vaccination series at the time point. Covariates include per capita GDP, an estimate of the percentage of country residents who strongly disagreed that vaccines are safe, and a variety of control variables. Next, we estimated these models of vaccine uptake by country income (countries below, and above the international median per capita GDP) to examine whether the impact of vaccine hesitancy varies by country income.

RESULTS

We find that GDP per capita has a pronounced impact on vaccine uptake at 6 months after global rollout. After controlling for other factors, there was a 22 percentage point difference in vaccination rates between the top 20% and the bottom 20% of countries ranked by per capita GDP; this difference grew to 38% by 12 months. The deleterious impact of distrust of vaccine safety on vaccine uptake became apparent by 12 months and then increased over time. At 24 months, there was a 17% difference in vaccination rates between the top 20% and the bottom 20% of countries ranked by distrust. The income stratified models reveal that the deleterious impact of vaccine distrust on vaccine uptake at 12 and 24 months is particularly evident in lower income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the important role of both national income and vaccine hesitancy in determining COVID-19 vaccine uptake globally. There is a need to increase the supply and distribution of pandemic vaccines to lower-income countries, and to take measures to improve vaccine confidence in these countries.

The importance of getting the ethics right in a pandemic treaty

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed numerous weaknesses in pandemic preparedness and response, including underfunding, inadequate surveillance, and inequitable distribution of countermeasures. To overcome these weaknesses for future pandemics, WHO released a zero draft of a pandemic treaty in February, 2023, and subsequently a revised bureau's text in May, 2023. COVID-19 made clear that pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response reflect choices and value judgements. These decisions are therefore not a purely scientific or technical exercise, but are fundamentally grounded in ethics. The latest treaty draft reflects these ethical considerations by including a section entitled Guiding Principles and Approaches. Most of these principles are ethical-they establish core values that undergird the treaty. Unfortunately, the treaty draft's set of principles are numerous, overlapping, and show inadequate coherence and consistency. We propose two improvements to this section of the draft pandemic treaty. First, key guiding ethical principles should be clearer and more precise than they currently are. Second, the link between ethical principles and policy implementation should be clearly established and define boundaries on acceptable interpretation, ensuring that signatories abide by these principles.

Behavioral Changes Associated With COVID-19 Vaccination: Cross-National Online Survey

BACKGROUND

During the initial phases of the vaccination campaign worldwide, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remained pivotal in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, it is important to understand how the arrival of vaccines affected the adoption of NPIs. Indeed, some individuals might have seen the start of mass vaccination campaigns as the end of the emergency and, as a result, relaxed their COVID-safe behaviors, facilitating the spread of the virus in a delicate epidemic phase such as the initial rollout.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to collect information about the possible relaxation of protective behaviors following key events of the vaccination campaign in four countries and to analyze possible associations of these behavioral tendencies with the sociodemographic characteristics of participants.

METHODS

We developed an online survey named "COVID-19 Prevention and Behavior Survey" that was conducted between November 26 and December 22, 2021. Participants were recruited using targeted ads on Facebook in four different countries: Brazil, Italy, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. We measured the onset of relaxation of protective measures in response to key events of the vaccination campaign, namely personal vaccination and vaccination of the most vulnerable population. Through calculation of odds ratios (ORs) and regression analysis, we assessed the strength of association between compliance with NPIs and sociodemographic characteristics of participants.

RESULTS

We received 2263 questionnaires from the four countries. Participants reported the most significant changes in social activities such as going to a restaurant or the cinema and visiting relatives and friends. This is in good agreement with validated psychological models of health-related behavioral change such as the Health Belief Model, according to which activities with higher costs and perceived barriers (eg, social activities) are more prone to early relaxation. Multivariate analysis using a generalized linear model showed that the two main determinants of the drop of social NPIs were (1) having previously tested positive for COVID-19 (after the second vaccine dose: OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.73-3.49) and (2) living with people at risk (after the second vaccine dose: OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.22-2.03).

CONCLUSIONS

This work shows that particular caution has to be taken during vaccination campaigns. Indeed, people might relax their safe behaviors regardless of the dynamics of the epidemic. For this reason, it is crucial to maintain high compliance with NPIs to avoid hindering the beneficial effects of the vaccine.

From private incentives to public health need: rethinking research and development for pandemic preparedness

Pandemic preparedness and response have relied primarily on market dynamics to drive development and availability of new health products. Building on calls for transformation, we propose a new value proposition that instead prioritises equity from the research and development (R&D) stage and that strengthens capacity to control outbreaks when and where they occur. Key elements include regional R&D hubs free to adapt well established technology platforms, and independent clinical trials networks working with researchers, regulators, and health authorities to better study questions of comparative benefit and real-world efficacy. Realising these changes requires a shift in emphasis: from pandemic response to outbreak control, from one-size-fits-all economies of scale to R&D and manufacture for local need, from de novo product development to last-mile innovation through adaptation of existing technologies, and from proprietary, competitive R&D to open science and financing for the common good that supports collective management and sharing of technology and know-how.

Rational social distancing policy during epidemics with limited healthcare capacity

Epidemics of infectious diseases posing a serious risk to human health have occurred throughout history. During recent epidemics there has been much debate about policy, including how and when to impose restrictions on behaviour. Policymakers must balance a complex spectrum of objectives, suggesting a need for quantitative tools. Whether health services might be 'overwhelmed' has emerged as a key consideration. Here we show how costly interventions, such as taxes or subsidies on behaviour, can be used to exactly align individuals' decision making with government preferences even when these are not aligned. In order to achieve this, we develop a nested optimisation algorithm of both the government intervention strategy and the resulting equilibrium behaviour of individuals. We focus on a situation in which the capacity of the healthcare system to treat patients is limited and identify conditions under which the disease dynamics respect the capacity limit. We find an extremely sharp drop in peak infections at a critical maximum infection cost in the government's objective function. This is in marked contrast to the gradual reduction of infections if individuals make decisions without government intervention. We find optimal interventions vary less strongly in time when interventions are costly to the government and that the critical cost of the policy switch depends on how costly interventions are.

COVID-19 and health systems in Brazil and around the world: effects on the working conditions and health of health workers

This article discusses the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on health systems and its effects on the working conditions and mental health of health professionals and invisible health workers. It presents data on deaths among health professionals, highlighting the need for better and safer working conditions and improvements in public management. We emphasize WHO/PAHO recommendations and the need for equitable vaccine distribution, including poor countries and vulnerable populations. We also highlight the impacts of interrupting essential health services, such as the treatment of chronic conditions and infectious disease prevention, and the damage caused by the dissemination of fake news, stressing the need to improve access to correct and safe health information.

Epidemiology, clinical presentation, pathophysiology, and management of long COVID: an update

The increasing number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections have highlighted the long-term consequences of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection called long COVID. Although the concept and definition of long COVID are described differently across countries and institutions, there is general agreement that it affects multiple systems, including the immune, respiratory, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, neuropsychological, musculoskeletal, and other systems. This review aims to provide a synthesis of published epidemiology, symptoms, and risk factors of long COVID. We also summarize potential pathophysiological mechanisms and biomarkers for precise prevention, early diagnosis, and accurate treatment of long COVID. Furthermore, we suggest evidence-based guidelines for the comprehensive evaluation and management of long COVID, involving treatment, health systems, health finance, public attitudes, and international cooperation, which is proposed to improve the treatment strategies, preventive measures, and public health policy making of long COVID.

Global inequities in access to COVID-19 health products and technologies: A political economy analysis

This paper presents a political economy analysis of global inequities in access to COVID-19 vaccines, treatments, and diagnostic tests. We adapt a conceptual model used for analysing the political economy of global extraction and health to examine the politico-economic factors affecting access to COVID-19 health products and technologies in four interconnected layers: the social, political, and historical context; politics, institutions, and policies; pathways to ill-health; and health consequences. Our analysis finds that battles over access to COVID-19 products occur in a profoundly unequal playing field, and that efforts to improve access that do not shift the fundamental power imbalances are bound to fail. Inequitable access has both direct effects on health (preventable illness and death) and indirect effects through exacerbation of poverty and inequality. We highlight how the case of COVID-19 products reflects broader patterns of structural violence, in which the political economy is structured to improve and lengthen the lives of those in the Global North while neglecting and shortening the lives of those in the Global South. We conclude that achieving equitable access to pandemic response products requires shifting longstanding power imbalances and the institutions and processes that entrench and enable them.

Association of vaccination, international travel, public health and social measures with lineage dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

Continually emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern that can evade immune defenses are driving recurrent epidemic waves of COVID-19 globally. However, the impact of measures to contain the virus and their effect on lineage diversity dynamics are poorly understood. Here, we jointly analyzed international travel, public health and social measures (PHSM), COVID-19 vaccine rollout, SARS-CoV-2 lineage diversity, and the case growth rate (GR) from March 2020 to September 2022 across 63 countries. We showed that despite worldwide vaccine rollout, PHSM are effective in mitigating epidemic waves and lineage diversity. An increase of 10,000 monthly travelers in a single country-to-country route between endemic countries corresponds to a 5.5% (95% CI: 2.9 to 8.2%) rise in local lineage diversity. After accounting for PHSM, natural immunity from previous infections, and waning immunity, we discovered a negative association between the GR of cases and adjusted vaccine coverage (AVC). We also observed a complex relationship between lineage diversity and vaccine rollout. Specifically, we found a significant negative association between lineage diversity and AVC at both low and high levels but not significant at the medium level. Our study deepens the understanding of population immunity and lineage dynamics for future pandemic preparedness and responsiveness.

Quantifying the impact of SARS-CoV-2 temporal vaccination trends and disparities on disease control

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been distributed at unprecedented speed. Still, little is known about temporal vaccination trends, their association with socioeconomic inequality, and their consequences for disease control. Using data from 161 countries/territories and 58 states, we examined vaccination rates across high and low socioeconomic status (SES), showing that disparities in coverage exist at national and subnational levels. We also identified two distinct vaccination trends: a rapid initial rollout, quickly reaching a plateau, or sigmoidal and slow to begin. Informed by these patterns, we implemented an SES-stratified mechanistic model, finding profound differences in mortality and incidence across these two vaccination types. Timing of initial rollout affects disease outcomes more substantially than final coverage or degree of SES disparity. Unexpectedly, timing is not associated with wealth inequality or GDP per capita. While socioeconomic disparity should be addressed, accelerating initial rollout for all over focusing on increasing coverage is an accessible intervention that could minimize the burden of disease across socioeconomic groups.

Leveraging lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic to strengthen low-income and middle-income country preparedness for future global health threats

Although the global COVID-19 pandemic response was quick to develop medical countermeasures, it failed to fully prevent morbidity and mortality in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). As new variants and post-COVID-19 condition continue to emerge and affect health systems and economies, the full human and economic cost is yet to be felt. We should now learn from these shortcomings and implement more inclusive and equitable frameworks to prevent and respond to outbreaks. This Series offers specific learnings from COVID-19 vaccination campaigns and non-pharmaceutical interventions, highlighting the need for resilient, inclusive, and equitable health systems. Taking action to rebuild trust and invest in resilient local manufacturing capacity, supply chains, regulatory frameworks, and placing LMIC voices at the centre of decision making will help to ensure preparedness for future threats. It is time to move beyond mere talk of learning and implementing lessons and instead take action towards a more resilient future.

Rational social distancing in epidemics with uncertain vaccination timing

During epidemics people may reduce their social and economic activity to lower their risk of infection. Such social distancing strategies will depend on information about the course of the epidemic but also on when they expect the epidemic to end, for instance due to vaccination. Typically it is difficult to make optimal decisions, because the available information is incomplete and uncertain. Here, we show how optimal decision-making depends on information about vaccination timing in a differential game in which individual decision-making gives rise to Nash equilibria, and the arrival of the vaccine is described by a probability distribution. We predict stronger social distancing the earlier the vaccination is expected and also the more sharply peaked its probability distribution. In particular, equilibrium social distancing only meaningfully deviates from the no-vaccination equilibrium course if the vaccine is expected to arrive before the epidemic would have run its course. We demonstrate how the probability distribution of the vaccination time acts as a generalised form of discounting, with the special case of an exponential vaccination time distribution directly corresponding to regular exponential discounting.

Hydrogen Sulfide Ameliorates SARS-CoV-2-Associated Lung Endothelial Barrier Disruption

Recent studies have confirmed that lung microvascular endothelial injury plays a critical role in the pathophysiology of COVID-19. Our group and others have demonstrated the beneficial effects of H2S in several pathological processes and provided a rationale for considering the therapeutic implications of H2S in COVID-19 therapy. Here, we evaluated the effect of the slow-releasing H2S donor, GYY4137, on the barrier function of a lung endothelial cell monolayer in vitro, after challenging the cells with plasma samples from COVID-19 patients or inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus. We also assessed how the cytokine/chemokine profile of patients' plasma, endothelial barrier permeability, and disease severity correlated with each other. Alterations in barrier permeability after treatments with patient plasma, inactivated virus, and GYY4137 were monitored and assessed by electrical impedance measurements in real time. We present evidence that GYY4137 treatment reduced endothelial barrier permeability after plasma challenge and completely reversed the endothelial barrier disruption caused by inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus. We also showed that disease severity correlated with the cytokine/chemokine profile of the plasma but not with barrier permeability changes in our assay. Overall, these data demonstrate that treatment with H2S-releasing compounds has the potential to ameliorate SARS-CoV-2-associated lung endothelial barrier disruption.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and Vaccination Coverage among Residents of a Lower-Middle-Class Population in the Federal District, Brazil

Estimating seroprevalence and vaccination coverage against COVID-19 is crucial to the development of well-targeted public health policies at the local level. Here, we estimated seroprevalence and vaccination coverage in a lower-middle-class population in Brazil. We conducted an observational, cross-sectional, population-based survey from 24 September to 19 December 2021. CMIA tests were used to detect anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG against the N-protein. The overall seroprevalence was 24.15% (177/733), and vaccination coverage was 91.40% (670/733); 72.09% (483/670) were fully vaccinated. Among vaccinated participants, seroprevalence was 24.77% (95% CI 21.50-28.04; 166/670), with a prevalence ratio (PR) of 1.03 (95% CI 0.98-1.08; p-value 0.131). Among participants who received an mRNA vaccine with S-based epitope (485), seroprevalence was 16.29% (95% CI 13.04-19.85; 79/485). Among unvaccinated participants, seroprevalence was 17.46% (95% CI 10.04-28.62; 11/63). Finally, in spite of the political climate and other possible causes for vaccine hesitancy, the positive Brazilian culture towards vaccination might have curbed hesitancy.

The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England

In late 2020, the JCVI (the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which provides advice to the Department of Health and Social Care, England) made two important recommendations for the initial roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine. The first was that vaccines should be targeted to older and vulnerable people, with the aim of maximally preventing disease rather than infection. The second was to increase the interval between first and second doses from 3 to 12 weeks. Here, we re-examine these recommendations through a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England. We show that targeting the most vulnerable had the biggest immediate impact (compared to targeting younger individuals who may be more responsible for transmission). The 12-week delay was also highly beneficial, estimated to have averted between 32-72 thousand hospital admissions and 4-9 thousand deaths over the first ten months of the campaign (December 2020-September 2021) depending on the assumed interaction between dose interval and efficacy.

A beacon in the dark: COVID-19 course in CVID patients from two European countries: Different approaches, similar outcomes

Background

CVID patients present an increased risk of prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection and re-infection and a higher COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality compared to the general population. Since 2021, different therapeutic and prophylactic strategies have been employed in vulnerable groups (vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies and antivirals). The impact of treatments over the last 2 years has not been explored in international studies considering the emergence of viral variants and different management between countries.

Methods

A multicenter retrospective/prospective real-life study comparing the prevalence and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection between a CVID cohort from four Italian Centers (IT-C) and one cohort from the Netherlands (NL-C), recruiting 773 patients.

Results

329 of 773 CVID patients were found positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 1^st, 2020 and September 1^st 2022. The proportion of CVID patients infected was comparable in both national sub-cohorts. During all waves, chronic lung disease, "complicated" phenotype, chronic immunosuppressive treatment and cardiovascular comorbidities impacted on hospitalization, whereas risk factors for mortality were older age, chronic lung disease, and bacterial superinfections. IT-C patients were significantly more often treated, both with antivirals and mAbs, than NL-C patients. Outpatient treatment, available only in Italy, started from the Delta wave. Despite this, no significant difference was found for COVID-19 severity between the two cohorts. However, pooling together specific SARS-CoV-2 outpatient treatments (mAbs and antivirals), we found a significant effect on the risk of hospitalization starting from Delta wave. Vaccination with ≥ 3 doses shortened RT-PCR positivity, with an additional effect only in patients receiving antivirals.

Conclusions

The two sub-cohorts had similar COVID-19 outcomes despite different treatment approaches. This points out that specific treatment should now be reserved for selected subgroups of CVID patients, based on pre-existing conditions.

The influence of share buybacks on ill-health and health inequity: an exploratory analysis using a socio-ecological determinants of health lens

INTRODUCTION

Share buybacks, when a corporation buys back its own shares, are recognised as having potentially harmful impacts on society. This includes by contributing to economic inequalities, and by impeding investments with the potential to protect and promote the welfare of various stakeholders. Share buybacks, however, have received minimal analytical attention in the public health literature. This paper aimed to explore the potential influence of share buybacks on population health and health inequity using a socio-ecological determinants of health lens.

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive analysis of share buybacks made by corporations listed on United States (US) stock exchanges between 1982 and 2021, using quantitative data sourced from Compustat. We examined annual trends in share buyback expenditure, including comparisons to dividend, net income, capital expenditure, and research and development expenditure data. We then purposively sampled a set of corporations to provide illustrative examples of how share buybacks potentially influence key socio-ecological determinants of health. The examples were: i) three COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers; ii) five of the world's largest fossil fuel corporations; and iii) US car manufacturer General Motors. For these, we conducted an analysis of data from Compustat, company reports and grey literature materials, focusing on key sources of profits and their allocation to share buybacks and particular investments.

RESULTS

US-listed corporations spent an estimated US$9.2 trillion in real terms on share buybacks between 2012 and 2021 (nearly 12 times more than from 1982 to 1991). The contribution of share buybacks to total shareholder 'returns' increased from 11% in 1982 to 55% in 2021, with expenditure on shareholder returns increasing considerably relative to capital, research and development expenditure over this period. The three examples illustrated how some corporations have prioritised the short-term financial interests of their shareholders, including via implementing large share buyback programs, over investments with considerable potential to protect and promote the public's health.

CONCLUSION

The potentially substantial impacts of share buybacks on health warrant increased research and policy attention. Arguably, more must be done to regulate share buybacks as part of efforts to address the corporate drivers of ill-health and inequity.

Rapid and Unamplified Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA via CRISPR-Cas13a-Modified Solution-Gated Graphene Transistors

The disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is termed COVID-19. Even though COVID-19 has been out for more than two years, it is still causing a global pandemic. Due to the limitations of sample collection, transportation, and kit performance, the traditional reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) method has a long detection period and high testing costs. An increased risk of infection is inevitable, since many patients may not be diagnosed in time. The CRISPR-Cas13a system can be designed for RNA identification and knockdown, as a promising platform for nucleic acid detection. Here, we designed a solution-gated graphene transistor (SGGT) biosensor based on the CRISPR-Cas13a system. Using the gene-targeting capacity of CRISPR-Cas13a and gate functionalization via multilayer modification, SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid sequences can be quickly and precisely identified without the need for amplification or fluorescence tagging. The limit of detection (LOD) in both buffer and serum reached the aM level, and the reaction time was about 10 min. The results of the detection of COVID-19 clinical samples from throat swabs agree with RT-PCR. In addition, the interchangeable gates significantly minimize the cost and time of device fabrication. In a nutshell, our biosensor technology is broadly applicable and will be suitable for point-of-care (POC) testing.

COVID-19 Model with High- and Low-Risk Susceptible Population Incorporating the Effect of Vaccines

It is a known fact that there are a particular set of people who are at higher risk of getting COVID-19 infection. Typically, these high-risk individuals are recommended to take more preventive measures. The use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the vaccine are playing a major role in the dynamics of the transmission of COVID-19. We propose a COVID-19 model with high-risk and low-risk susceptible individuals and their respective intervention strategies. We find two equilibrium solutions and we investigate the basic reproduction number. We also carry out the stability analysis of the equilibria. Further, this model is extended by considering the vaccination of some non-vaccinated individuals in the high-risk population. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations are carried out. From the results, we are able to obtain disease-free and endemic equilibrium solutions by solving the system of equations in the model and show their global stabilities using the Lyapunov function technique. The results obtained from the sensitivity analysis shows that reducing the hospitals' imperfect efficacy can have a positive impact on the control of COVID-19. Finally, simulations of the extended model demonstrate that vaccination could adequately control or eliminate COVID-19.

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling study

Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically impacted by structural socio-economic inequities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) sampled from all WHO regions. We focus on the first critical months of vaccine distribution and administration, exploring counterfactual scenarios where we assume the same per capita daily vaccination rate reported in selected high income countries. We estimate that, in this high vaccine availability scenario, more than 50% of deaths (min-max range: [56% - 99%]) that occurred in the analyzed countries could have been averted. We further consider a scenario where LMIC had similarly early access to vaccine doses as high income countries; even without increasing the number of doses, we estimate an important fraction of deaths (min-max range: [7% - 73%]) could have been averted. In the absence of equitable allocation, the model suggests that considerable additional non-pharmaceutical interventions would have been required to offset the lack of vaccines (min-max range: [15% - 75%]). Overall, our results quantify the negative impacts of vaccines inequities and call for amplified global efforts to provide better access to vaccine programs in low and lower middle income countries.