Spillover and pandemic properties of zoonotic viruses with high host plasticity

Disease X and COVID-19: turning lessons from India and the world into policy recommendations

Disease X is caused by pathogen X, an unknown infectious agent that can potentially trigger an epidemic or pandemic. Pathogen X might be any pathogen, including bacteria, viruses, parasites, fungi, and prions. WHO uses the term 'Disease X' for any new emerging disease caused by an unknown pathogen X. Disease X stands for any possible future pandemic in WHO's shortlist of high-priority diseases. This review looks at the manifestations of the recent COVID-19 epidemic as the first Disease X to evaluate what has happened and to learn from what went wrong in India and worldwide. To this end, a summary is presented of response measures by governments, often lacking flows of information, discrepancies in the views of experts and decisions of policymakers, and undesirable variations in individual and collective behavior and their consequences. The elements of combating Disease X in a world with considerable inequalities in relevant knowledge, expertise, information, quality of governance, and financial possibilities are discussed. Based on this, recommendations are given for an innovative global pandemic preparedness system.

Viral diseases and the environment relationship

Viral diseases have been present throughout human history, with early examples including influenza (1500 B.C.), smallpox (1000 B.C.), and measles (200 B.C.). The term "virus" was first used in the late 1800s to describe microorganisms smaller than bacteria, and significant milestones include the discovery of the polio virus and the development of its vaccine in the mid-1900s, and the identification of HIV/AIDS in the latter part of the 20th century. The 21st century has seen the emergence of new viral diseases such as West Nile Virus, Zika, SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. Human activities, including crowding, travel, poor sanitation, and environmental changes like deforestation and climate change, significantly influence the spread of these diseases. Conversely, viral diseases can impact the environment by polluting water resources, contributing to deforestation, and reducing biodiversity. These environmental impacts are exacerbated by disruptions in global supply chains and increased demands for resources. This review highlights the intricate relationship between viral diseases and environmental factors, emphasizing how human activities and viral disease progression influence each other. The findings underscore the need for integrated approaches to address the environmental determinants of viral diseases and mitigate their impacts on both health and ecosystems.

Towards a Comprehensive Definition of Pandemics and Strategies for Prevention: A Historical Review and Future Perspectives

The lack of a universally accepted definition of a pandemic hinders a comprehensive understanding of and effective response to these global health crises. Current definitions often lack quantitative criteria, rendering them vague and limiting their utility. Here, we propose a refined definition that considers the likelihood of susceptible individuals contracting an infectious disease that culminates in widespread global transmission, increased morbidity and mortality, and profound societal, economic, and political consequences. Applying this definition retrospectively, we identify 22 pandemics that occurred between 165 and 2024 AD and were caused by a variety of diseases, including smallpox (Antonine and American), plague (Justinian, Black Death, and Third Plague), cholera (seven pandemics), influenza (two Russian, Spanish, Asian, Hong Kong, and swine), AIDS, and coronaviruses (SARS, MERS, and COVID-19). This work presents a comprehensive analysis of past pandemics caused by both emerging and re-emerging pathogens, along with their epidemiological characteristics, societal impact, and evolution of public health responses. We also highlight the need for proactive measures to reduce the risk of future pandemics. These strategies include prioritizing surveillance of emerging zoonotic pathogens, conserving biodiversity to counter wildlife trafficking, and minimizing the potential for zoonotic spillover events. In addition, interventions such as promoting alternative protein sources, enforcing the closure of live animal markets in biodiversity-rich regions, and fostering global collaboration among diverse stakeholders are critical to preventing future pandemics. Crucially, improving wildlife surveillance systems will require the concerted efforts of local, national and international entities, including laboratories, field researchers, wildlife conservationists, government agencies and other stakeholders. By fostering collaborative networks and establishing robust biorepositories, we can strengthen our collective capacity to detect, monitor, and mitigate the emergence and transmission of zoonotic pathogens.

Genomic characterization of Volzhskoe tick virus (Bunyaviricetes) from a Hyalomma marginatum tick, Hungary

Hyalomma marginatum, a vector for the high-consequence pathogen, the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), needs particular attention due to its impact on public health. Although it is a known vector for CCHFV, its general virome is largely unexplored. Here, we report findings from a citizen science monitoring program aimed to understand the prevalence and diversity of tick-borne pathogens, particularly focusing on Hyalomma ticks in Hungary. In 2021, we identified one adult specimen of Hyalomma marginatum and subjected it to Illumina-based viral metagenomic sequencing. Our analysis revealed sequences of the uncharacterized Volzhskoe tick virus, an unclassified member of the class Bunyaviricetes. The in silico analysis uncovered key genetic regions, including the glycoprotein and the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) coding regions. Phylogenetic analysis indicated a close relationship between our Volzhskoe tick virus sequences and other unclassified Bunyaviricetes species. These related species of unclassified Bunyaviricetes were detected in vastly different geolocations. These findings highlight the remarkable diversity of tick specific viruses and emphasize the need for further research to understand the transmissibility, seroreactivity or the potential pathogenicity of Volzhskoe tick virus and related species.

Novel pathogenic adenovirus in Timneh grey parrot (Psittacus timneh) unveils distinct lineage within Aviadenovirus

Wild birds harbour a vast diversity of adenoviruses that remain uncharacterised with respect to their genome organisation and evolutionary relatedness within complex host ecosystems. Here, we characterise a novel adenovirus type within Aviadenovirus genus associated with severe necrotising hepatitis in a captive Timneh grey parrot, tentatively named as Timneh grey parrot adenovirus 1 (TpAdV-1). The TpAdV-1 genome is 39,867 bp and encodes 46 putative genes with seven hitherto not described ones. Comparative genomics and phylogenetic analyses revealed highest nucleotide identity with psittacine adenovirus 1 and psittacine adenovirus 4 that formed a discrete monophyletic clade within Aviadenovirus lineage suggesting a deep host co-divergent lineage within Psittaciformes hosts. Several recombination breakpoints were identified within the TpAdV-1 genome, which highlighted an ancient evolutionary relationship across the genera Aviadenovirus, Mastadenovirus and Atadenovirus. This study hints towards a host-adapted sub-lineage of avian adenovirus capable of having significant host virulence in Psittaciformes birds augmented with ecological opportunity.

Estimating pathogen-spillover risk using host-ectoparasite interactions

Pathogen spillover corresponds to the transmission of a pathogen or parasite from an original host species to a novel host species, preluding disease emergence. Understanding the interacting factors that lead to pathogen transmission in a zoonotic cycle could help identify novel hosts of pathogens and the patterns that lead to disease emergence. We hypothesize that ecological and biogeographic factors drive host encounters, infection susceptibility, and cross-species spillover transmission. Using a rodent-ectoparasite system in the Neotropics, with shared ectoparasite associations as a proxy for ecological interaction between rodent species, we assessed relationships between rodents using geographic range, phylogenetic relatedness, and ectoparasite associations to determine the roles of generalist and specialist hosts in the transmission cycle of hantavirus. A total of 50 rodent species were ranked on their centrality in a network model based on ectoparasites sharing. Geographic proximity and phylogenetic relatedness were predictors for rodents to share ectoparasite species and were associated with shorter network path distance between rodents through shared ectoparasites. The rodent-ectoparasite network model successfully predicted independent data of seven known hantavirus hosts. The model predicted five novel rodent species as potential, unrecognized hantavirus hosts in South America. Findings suggest that ectoparasite data, geographic range, and phylogenetic relatedness of wildlife species could help predict novel hosts susceptible to infection and possible transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Hantavirus is a high-consequence zoonotic pathogen with documented animal-to-animal, animal-to-human, and human-to-human transmission. Predictions of new rodent hosts can guide active epidemiological surveillance in specific areas and wildlife species to mitigate hantavirus spillover transmission risk from rodents to humans. This study supports the idea that ectoparasite relationships among rodents are a proxy of host species interactions and can inform transmission cycles of diverse pathogens circulating in wildlife disease systems, including wildlife viruses with epidemic potential, such as hantavirus.

Emergence failure of early epidemics: A mathematical modeling approach

Epidemic or pathogen emergence is the phenomenon by which a poorly transmissible pathogen finds its evolutionary pathway to become a mutant that can cause an epidemic. Many mathematical models of pathogen emergence rely on branching processes. Here, we discuss pathogen emergence using Markov chains, for a more tractable analysis, generalizing previous work by Kendall and Bartlett about disease invasion. We discuss the probability of emergence failure for early epidemics, when the number of infected individuals is small and the number of the susceptible individuals is virtually unlimited. Our formalism addresses both directly transmitted and vector-borne diseases, in the cases where the original pathogen is 1) one step-mutation away from the epidemic strain, and 2) undergoing a long chain of neutral mutations that do not change the epidemiology. We obtain analytic results for the probabilities of emergence failure and two features transcending the transmission mechanism. First, the reproduction number of the original pathogen is determinant for the probability of pathogen emergence, more important than the mutation rate or the transmissibility of the emerged pathogen. Second, the probability of mutation within infected individuals must be sufficiently high for the pathogen undergoing neutral mutations to start an epidemic, the mutation threshold depending again on the basic reproduction number of the original pathogen. Finally, we discuss the parameterization of models of pathogen emergence, using SARS-CoV1 as an example of zoonotic emergence and HIV as an example for the emergence of drug resistance. We also discuss assumptions of our models and implications for epidemiology.

SARS-CoV-2 resistance to monoclonal antibodies and small-molecule drugs

Over four years have passed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The scientific response has been rapid and effective, with many therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and small molecules developed for clinical use. However, given the ability for viruses to become resistant to antivirals, it is perhaps no surprise that the field has identified resistance to nearly all of these compounds. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the resistance profile for each of these therapeutics. We hope that this resource provides an atlas for mutations to be aware of for each agent, particularly as a springboard for considerations for the next generation of antivirals. Finally, we discuss the outlook and thoughts for moving forward in how we continue to manage this, and the next, pandemic.

Expression of influenza A virus glycan receptor candidates in mallard, chicken, and tufted duck

Influenza A virus (IAV) pandemics result from interspecies transmission events within the avian reservoir and further into mammals including humans. Receptor incompatibility due to differently expressed glycan structures between species has been suggested to limit zoonotic IAV transmission from the wild bird reservoir as well as between different bird species. Using glycoproteomics, we have studied the repertoires of expressed glycan structures with focus on putative sialic acid-containing glycan receptors for IAV in mallard, chicken and tufted duck; three bird species with different roles in the zoonotic ecology of IAV. The methodology used pinpoints specific glycan structures to specific glycosylation sites of identified glycoproteins and was also used to successfully discriminate α2-3- from α2-6-linked terminal sialic acids by careful analysis of oxonium ions released from glycopeptides in tandem MS/MS (MS2), and MS/MS/MS (MS3). Our analysis clearly demonstrated that all three bird species can produce complex N-glycans including α2-3-linked sialyl Lewis structures, as well as both N- and O- glycans terminated with both α2-3- and α2-6-linked Neu5Ac. We also found the recently identified putative IAV receptor structures, Man-6P N-glycopeptides, in all tissues of the three bird species. Furthermore, we found many similarities in the repertoires of expressed receptors both between the bird species investigated and to previously published data from pigs and humans. Our findings of sialylated glycan structures, previously anticipated to be mammalian specific, in all three bird species may have major implications for our understanding of the role of receptor incompatibility in interspecies transmission of IAV.

The PHERCC Matrix. An Ethical Framework for Planning, Governing, and Evaluating Risk and Crisis Communication in the Context of Public Health Emergencies

Risk and crisis communication (RCC) is a current ethical issue subject to controversy, mainly due to the tension between individual liberty (a core component of fairness) and effectiveness. In this paper we propose a consistent definition of the RCC process in public health emergencies (PHERCC), which comprises six key elements: evidence, initiator, channel, publics, message, and feedback. Based on these elements and on a detailed analysis of their role in PHERCC, we present an ethical framework to help design, govern and evaluate PHERCC strategies. The framework aims to facilitate RCC, incorporating effectiveness, autonomy, and fairness. It comprises five operational ethical principles: openness, transparency, inclusivity, understandability, and privacy. The resulting matrix helps understanding the interplay between the PHERCC process and the principles of the framework. The paper includes suggestions and recommendations for the implementation of the PHERCC matrix.

Emergence of SARS and COVID-19 and preparedness for the next emerging disease X

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are two human Coronavirus diseases emerging in this century, posing tremendous threats to public health and causing great loss to lives and economy. In this review, we retrospect the studies tracing the molecular evolution of SARS-CoV, and we sort out current research findings about the potential ancestor of SARS-CoV-2. Updated knowledge about SARS-CoV-2-like viruses found in wildlife, the animal susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, as well as the interspecies transmission risk of SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) are gathered here. Finally, we discuss the strategies of how to be prepared against future outbreaks of emerging or re-emerging coronaviruses.

Effect of epidemic diseases on wild animal conservation

Under the background of global species extinction, the impact of epidemic diseases on wild animal protection is increasingly prominent. Here, we review and synthesize the literature on this topic, and discuss the relationship between diseases and biodiversity. Diseases usually reduce species diversity by decreasing or extinction of species populations, but also accelerate species evolution and promote species diversity. At the same time, species diversity can regulate disease outbreaks through dilution or amplification effects. The synergistic effect of human activities and global change is emphasized, which further aggravates the complex relationship between biodiversity and diseases. Finally, we emphasize the importance of active surveillance of wild animal diseases, which can protect wild animals from potential diseases, maintain population size and genetic variation, and reduce the damage of diseases to the balance of the whole ecosystem and human health. Therefore, we suggest that a background survey of wild animal populations and their pathogens should be carried out to assess the impact of potential outbreaks on the population or species level. The mechanism of dilution and amplification effect between species diversity and diseases of wild animals should be further studied to provide a theoretical basis and technical support for human intervention measures to change biodiversity. Most importantly, we should closely combine the protection of wild animals with the establishment of an active surveillance, prevention, and control system for wild animal epidemics, in an effort to achieve a win-win situation between wild animal protection and disease control.

Metagenomic analysis of herbivorous mammalian viral communities in the Northwest Plateau

BACKGROUND

Mammals are potential hosts for many infectious diseases. However, studies on the viral communities of herbivorous mammals in the Northwest Plateau are limited. Here, we studied the viral communities of herbivorous mammals in the Northwest Plateau using virus metagenomic analysis to analyze and compare the viral community composition of seven animal species.

RESULTS

By library construction and next-generation sequencing, contigs and singlets reads with similar viral sequences were classified into 24 viral families. Analyzed from the perspective of sampling areas, the virus community composition was relatively similar in two areas of Wuwei and Jinchang, Gansu Province. Analyzed from the perspective of seven animal species, the viral reads of seven animal species were mostly ssDNA and dominated by CRESS-DNA viruses. Phylogenetic analysis based on viral marker genes indicated that CRESS-DNA viruses and microviruses have high genetic diversity. In addition to DNA viruses, nodaviruses, pepper mild mottle viruses and picornaviruses were RNA viruses that we performed by phylogenetic analysis. The CRESS-DNA viruses and nodaviruses are believed to infect plants and insects, and microviruses can infect bacteria, identifying that they were likely from the diet of herbivorous mammals. Notably, two picornaviruses were identified from red deer and wild horse, showing that the picornavirus found in red deer had the relatively high similarity with human hepatitis A virus, and the picornavirus carried by wild horse could potentially form a new species within the Picornaviridae family.

CONCLUSIONS

This study explored the herbivorous mammalian virus community in the Northwest Plateau and the genetic characteristics of viruses that potentially threaten human health. It reveals the diversity and stability of herbivorous mammalian virus communities in the Northwest Plateau and helps to expand our knowledge of various herbivorous mammalian potentially pathogenic viruses.

Monitoring Monkeypox: Safeguarding Global Health through Rapid Response and Global Surveillance

Monkeypox, a viral zoonotic disease, has emerged as a significant global threat in recent years. This review focuses on the importance of global monitoring and rapid response to monkeypox outbreaks. The unpredictable nature of monkeypox transmissions, its potential for human-to-human spread, and its high morbidity rate underscore the necessity for proactive surveillance systems. By analyzing the existing literature, including recent outbreaks, this review highlights the critical role of global surveillance in detecting, containing, and preventing the further spread of monkeypox. It also emphasizes the need for enhanced international collaboration, data sharing, and real-time information exchange to effectively respond to monkeypox outbreaks as a global health concern. Furthermore, this review discusses the challenges and opportunities of implementing robust surveillance strategies, including the use of advanced diagnostic tools and technologies. Ultimately, these findings underscore the urgency of establishing a comprehensive global monitoring framework for monkeypox, enabling early detection, prompt response, and effective control measures to protect public health worldwide.

Absence of Staphylococcus aureus in Wild Populations of Fish Supports a Spillover Hypothesis

Staphylococcus aureus is a human commensal and opportunistic pathogen that also infects other animals. In humans and livestock, where S. aureus is most studied, strains are specialized for different host species. Recent studies have also found S. aureus in diverse wild animals. However, it remains unclear whether these isolates are also specialized for their hosts or whether their presence is due to repeated spillovers from source populations. This study focuses on S. aureus in fish, testing the spillover hypothesis in two ways. First, we examined 12 S. aureus isolates obtained from the internal and external organs of a farmed fish. While all isolates were from clonal complex 45, genomic diversity indicates repeated acquisition. The presence of a φSa3 prophage containing human immune evasion genes suggests that the source was originally human. Second, we tested for S. aureus in wild fish that were isolated from likely sources. In particular, we sampled 123 brown trout and their environment at 16 sites in the remote Scottish Highlands with variable levels of exposure to humans, birds, and livestock. This screen found no S. aureus infection in any of the wild populations or their environment. Together, these results support that the presence of S. aureus in fish and aquaculture is due to spillover from humans rather than specialization. Given the trends of increasing fish consumption, a better understanding of the dynamics of S. aureus spillover in aquaculture will mitigate future risks to fish and human health. IMPORTANCE Staphylococcus aureus is a human and livestock commensal but also an important pathogen responsible for high human mortality rates and economic losses in farming. Recent studies show that S. aureus is common in wild animals, including fish. However, we do not know whether these animals are part of the normal host range of S. aureus or whether infection is due to repeated spillover events from true S. aureus hosts. Answering this question has implications for public health and conservation. We find support for the spillover hypothesis by combining genome sequencing of S. aureus isolates from farmed fish and screens for S. aureus in isolated wild populations. The results imply that fish are unlikely to be a source of novel emergent S. aureus strains but highlight the prominence of the spillover of antibiotic-resistant bacteria from humans and livestock. This may affect both future fish disease potential and the risk of human food poisoning.

Investigating and combatting the key drivers of viral zoonoses in Africa: an analysis of eight epidemics

Investigating the interplay of factors that result in a viral zoonotic outbreak is difficult, though it is increasingly important. As anthropogenic influences shift the delicate balance of ecosystems, new zoonoses emerge in humans. Sub-Saharan Africa is a notable hotspot for zoonotic disease due to abundant competent mammalian reservoir hosts. Furthermore, poverty, corruption, and an overreliance on natural resources play considerable roles in depleting biological resources, exacerbating the population's susceptibility. Unsurprisingly, viral zoonoses have emerged in Africa, including HIV/AIDS, Ebola, Avian influenza, Lassa fever, Zika, and Monkeypox. These diseases are among the principal causes of death in endemic areas. Though typically distinct in their manifestations, viral zoonoses are connected by underlying, definitive factors. This review summarises vital findings on viral zoonoses in Africa using nine notable case studies as a benchmark for future studies. We discuss the importance of ecological recuperation and protection as a central strategy to control zoonotic diseases. Emphasis was made on moderating key drivers of zoonotic diseases to forestall future pandemics. This is in conjunction with attempts to redirect efforts from reactive to pre-emptive through a multidisciplinary "one health" approach.

Genomic screening of 16 UK native bat species through conservationist networks uncovers coronaviruses with zoonotic potential

There has been limited characterisation of bat-borne coronaviruses in Europe. Here, we screened for coronaviruses in 48 faecal samples from 16 of the 17 bat species breeding in the UK, collected through a bat rehabilitation and conservationist network. We recovered nine complete genomes, including two novel coronavirus species, across six bat species: four alphacoronaviruses, a MERS-related betacoronavirus, and four closely related sarbecoviruses. We demonstrate that at least one of these sarbecoviruses can bind and use the human ACE2 receptor for infecting human cells, albeit suboptimally. Additionally, the spike proteins of these sarbecoviruses possess an R-A-K-Q motif, which lies only one nucleotide mutation away from a furin cleavage site (FCS) that enhances infectivity in other coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. However, mutating this motif to an FCS does not enable spike cleavage. Overall, while UK sarbecoviruses would require further molecular adaptations to infect humans, their zoonotic risk warrants closer surveillance.

Future trajectory of SARS-CoV-2: Constant spillover back and forth between humans and animals

SARS-CoV-2, known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, is causing a massive global public health dilemma. In particular, the outbreak of the Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries has aroused the great attention of the World Health Organization (WHO). As of February 1st, 2023, the WHO had counted 671,016,135 confirmed cases and 6,835,595 deaths worldwide. Despite effective vaccines and drug treatments, there is currently no way to completely and directly eliminate SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, frequent cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in animals have also been reported. In this review, we suggest that SARS-CoV-2, as a zoonotic virus, may be frequently transmitted between animals and humans in the future, which provides a reference and warning for rational prevention and control of COVID-19.

Global governance for pandemic prevention and the wildlife trade

Although ideas about preventive actions for pandemics have been advanced during the COVID-19 crisis, there has been little consideration for how they can be operationalised through governance structures within the context of the wildlife trade for human consumption. To date, pandemic governance has mostly focused on outbreak surveillance, containment, and response rather than on avoiding zoonotic spillovers in the first place. However, given the acceleration of globalisation, a paradigm shift towards prevention of zoonotic spillovers is warranted as containment of outbreaks becomes unfeasible. Here, we consider the current institutional landscape for pandemic prevention in light of ongoing negotiations of a so-called pandemic treaty and how prevention of zoonotic spillovers from the wildlife trade for human consumption could be incorporated. We argue that such an institutional arrangement should be explicit about zoonotic spillover prevention and focus on improving coordination across four policy domains, namely public health, biodiversity conservation, food security, and trade. We posit that this pandemic treaty should include four interacting goals in relation to prevention of zoonotic spillovers from the wildlife trade for human consumption: risk understanding, risk assessment, risk reduction, and enabling funding. Despite the need to keep political attention on addressing the current pandemic, society cannot afford to miss the opportunity of the current crisis to encourage institution building for preventing future pandemics.

Strengthening the One Health Approach in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

One Health aims to use a multidisciplinary approach to combat health threats at animal, human, and environmental health interfaces. Among its broad focus areas are issues related to food safety, the control of zoonoses, laboratory services, neglected tropical diseases, environmental health, biosafety and biosecurity, and combatting antimicrobial resistance. A roundtable session was conducted on November 18, 2021, as part of the Eastern Mediterranean Public Health Network's (EMPHNET) seventh regional conference to highlight what role Global Health Development (GHD)|EMPHNET can play to strengthen the One Health approach. This viewpoint summarizes the findings of the roundtable discussion to highlight the experts' viewpoints on strengthening the One Health approach, including the extent of zoonotic diseases and the dynamics of pathogens and emerging diseases; the occurrence of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens as a silent pandemic; issues surrounding the globalization of trade and food safety; the importance of integrated solutions as a new norm; issues around the institutionalization and governance toward effective operationalization of the One Health approach in the region; and how the One Health approach can be operationalized at global, regional, and local levels. The panel concluded that One Health is an integrated unifying approach that aims to sustainably balance and optimize the health of people, animals, and ecosystems, and provided recommendations to strengthen the One Health approach. It also discussed how GHD|EMPHNET can play its role in transferring the concept of One Health from theory to practice via a solid operationalization road map guide at the Eastern Mediterranean region level. The five broad priority areas of this operational guide include (1) establishing and strengthening a governance architecture, legal framework, and policy and advocacy structure for One Health operationalization in the region; (2) fostering coordination, communication, and collaboration for One Health actions across the region and beyond; (3) building the workforce capacity for effective One Health operationalization in the region; (4) supporting regional platforms for timely, effective, and efficient data sharing and exchange on all One Health-related issues; and (5) supporting risk communication, behavior change communication, and community engagement efforts in the region.

The need and challenges for development of vaccines against emerging infectious diseases

OBJECTIVE

To identify and describe learnings from past pandemics and to suggest a framework for vaccine development as part of epi/pandemic readiness.

SOURCE OF DATA

Articles/ reviews/letters on pandemic preparedness/ vaccines published between 2005 and 2022 in PubMed, MEDLINE, MedRxiv, BioRxiv, Research Square, Gates Open Research; who.int, cepi.net, visualcapitalist.com, airfinity.com, ted.com websites; press releases.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Disease pandemics caused by emerging pathogens impacted the social development, health and wealth of most societies in human history. In an outbreak, the first months determine its course. To block an exponential spread and the development of an epi/ pandemic early, vaccine availability in sufficient quantities is of paramount importance. It is inevitable that new human viruses will emerge. Any future pandemic will come likely from RNA viruses through zoonotic or vector transmission, but we cannot predict when or where "Disease X" will strike. Public health, scientific and societal readiness plans need to include: continuous identification of new viruses in common mammalian reservoir hosts; continuous epidemiological surveillance, including wastewater sampling; establishment of prototype vaccine libraries against various virus families sharing functional and structural properties; testing of various and innovative vaccine platforms including mRNA, vector, nasal or oral vaccines for suitability by virus family; functional clinical trial sites and laboratory networks in various geographies; more efficient phasing of preclinical and clinical activities; global harmonization and streamlining of regulatory requirements including pre-established protocols; and societal preparedness including combating any pandemic of misinformation.

CONCLUSIONS

"Outbreaks are unavoidable, pandemics are optional".

The Virome of Bats Inhabiting Brazilian Biomes: Knowledge Gaps and Biases towards Zoonotic Viruses

Bats host a large variety of viruses, including some that may infect other vertebrates and humans. Research on bat-borne viruses attracted significant attention in recent years mainly due to epizootics caused by viruses having bats as hosts. The characterization of the viral communities of bats was then prioritized, but despite increasing efforts, there are large disparities in the geographical ranges covered and the methodologies employed around the world. As a result, large gaps remain in our current understanding of bat viromes and their role in disease emergence. This is particularly true for megadiverse regions in Latin America. This review aims to summarize the current understanding about bat viruses that inhabit Brazilian biomes, one of the most bat species-rich and diverse regions of the globe. Taking into account all known bat-associated viral families studied in Brazilian biomes, we found that almost half of all bat species (86/181 species) were not investigated for viruses at all. Moreover, only a small fraction of viral lineages or families have been studied more in depth, usually employing targeted methods with limited power to characterize a broad virus diversity. Additionally, these studies relied on limited spatiotemporal sampling and small sample sizes. Therefore, our current understanding of bat viral communities in the Brazilian biomes is limited and biased at different levels, limiting zoonotic risk assessments of bat-borne viruses. Considering these limitations, we propose strategies to bridge the existing gaps in the near future. IMPORTANCE Bat-borne viruses have attracted much attention due to zoonotic outbreaks with large consequences to humans. Because of that, virus characterization in bats has been prioritized in tropical regions of the globe. However, bat-virus research in Latin America and particularly in Brazil, which are among the most bat species-rich regions of the world, are highly biased toward zoonotic viruses and known bat reservoir species. These results have direct implication for virus studies in general but also for new zoonotic virus and spillover events characterization. The limited knowledge we currently have about the virome of Brazilian bats drastically limits any broad assessment of zoonotic viruses they carry and calls for coordinated and large-scale studies to fill this crucial knowledge gap.

Arboviruses in Mammals in the Neotropics: A Systematic Review to Strengthen Epidemiological Monitoring Strategies and Conservation Medicine

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are a diverse group of ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses, with the exception of African swine fever virus, that are transmitted by hematophagous arthropods to a vertebrate host. They are the important cause of many diseases due to their ability to spread in different environments and their diversity of vectors. Currently, there is no information on the geographical distribution of the diseases because the routes of transmission and the mammals (wild or domestic) that act as potential hosts are poorly documented or unknown. We conducted a systematic review from 1967 to 2021 to identify the diversity of arboviruses, the areas, and taxonomic groups that have been monitored, the prevalence of positive records, and the associated risk factors. We identified forty-three arboviruses in nine mammalian orders distributed in eleven countries. In Brazil, the order primates harbor the highest number of arbovirus records. The three most recorded arboviruses were Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Saint Louis encephalitis and West Nile virus. Serum is the most used sample to obtain arbovirus records. Deforestation is identified as the main risk factor for arbovirus transmission between different species and environments (an odds ratio of 1.46 with a 95% confidence interval: 1.34-1.59). The results show an increase in the sampling effort over the years in the neotropical region. Despite the importance of arboviruses for public health, little is known about the interaction of arboviruses, their hosts, and vectors, as some countries and mammalian orders have not yet been monitored. Long-term and constant monitoring allows focusing research on the analysis of the interrelationships and characteristics of each component animal, human, and their environment to understand the dynamics of the diseases and guide epidemiological surveillance and vector control programs. The biodiversity of the Neotropics should be considered to support epidemiological monitoring strategies.

Evidence of Antimicrobial Resistance in Bats and Its Planetary Health Impact for Surveillance of Zoonotic Spillover Events: A Scoping Review

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as other outbreaks, such as SARS and Ebola, bats are recognized as a critical species for mediating zoonotic infectious disease spillover events. While there is a growing concern of increased antimicrobial resistance (AMR) globally during this pandemic, knowledge of AMR circulating between bats and humans is limited. In this paper, we have reviewed the evidence of AMR in bats and discussed the planetary health aspect of AMR to elucidate how this is associated with the emergence, spread, and persistence of AMR at the human-animal interface. The presence of clinically significant resistant bacteria in bats and wildlife has important implications for zoonotic pandemic surveillance, disease transmission, and treatment modalities. We searched MEDLINE through PubMed and Google Scholar to retrieve relevant studies (n = 38) that provided data on resistant bacteria in bats prior to 30 September 2022. There is substantial variability in the results from studies measuring the prevalence of AMR based on geographic location, bat types, and time. We found all major groups of Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria in bats, which are resistant to commonly used antibiotics. The most alarming issue is that recent studies have increasingly identified clinically significant multi-drug resistant bacteria such as Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), ESBL producing, and Colistin resistant Enterobacterales in samples from bats. This evidence of superbugs abundant in both humans and wild mammals, such as bats, could facilitate a greater understanding of which specific pathways of exposure should be targeted. We believe that these data will also facilitate future pandemic preparedness as well as global AMR containment during pandemic events and beyond.

Enveloped viruses show increased propensity to cross-species transmission and zoonosis

The transmission of viruses between different host species is a major source of emerging diseases and is of particular concern in the case of zoonotic transmission from mammals to humans. Several zoonosis risk factors have been identified, but it is currently unclear which viral traits primarily determine this process as previous work has focused on a few hundred viruses that are not representative of actual viral diversity. Here, we investigate fundamental virological traits that influence cross-species transmissibility and zoonotic propensity by interrogating a database of over 12,000 mammalian virus-host associations. Our analysis reveals that enveloped viruses tend to infect more host species and are more likely to be zoonotic than nonenveloped viruses, while other viral traits such as genome composition, structure, size, or the viral replication compartment play a less obvious role. This contrasts with the previous notion that viral envelopes did not significantly impact or even reduce zoonotic risk and should help better prioritize outbreak prevention efforts. We suggest several mechanisms by which viral envelopes could promote cross-species transmissibility, including structural flexibility of receptor-binding proteins and evasion of viral entry barriers.

SARS-CoV-2 at the Human-Animal Interface: Implication for Global Public Health from an African Perspective

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become the most far-reaching public health crisis of modern times. Several efforts are underway to unravel its root cause as well as to proffer adequate preventive or inhibitive measures. Zoonotic spillover of the causative virus from an animal reservoir to the human population is being studied as the most likely event leading to the pandemic. Consequently, it is important to consider viral evolution and the process of spread within zoonotic anthropogenic transmission cycles as a global public health impact. The diverse routes of interspecies transmission of SARS-CoV-2 offer great potential for a future reservoir of pandemic viruses evolving from the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic circulation. To mitigate possible future infectious disease outbreaks in Africa and elsewhere, there is an urgent need for adequate global surveillance, prevention, and control measures that must include a focus on known and novel emerging zoonotic pathogens through a one health approach. Human immunization efforts should be approached equally through the transfer of cutting-edge technology for vaccine manufacturing throughout the world to ensure global public health and one health.

Decoding the Role of Temperature in RNA Virus Infections

RNA viruses include respiratory viruses, such as coronaviruses and influenza viruses, as well as vector-borne viruses, like dengue and West Nile virus. RNA viruses like these encounter various environments when they copy themselves and spread from cell to cell or host to host. Ex vivo differences, such as geographical location and humidity, affect their stability and transmission, while in vivo differences, such as pH and host gene expression, impact viral receptor binding, viral replication, and the host immune response against the viral infection. A critical factor affecting RNA viruses both ex vivo and in vivo, and defining the outcome of viral infections and the direction of viral evolution, is temperature. In this minireview, we discuss the impact of temperature on viral replication, stability, transmission, and adaptation, as well as the host innate immune response. Improving our understanding of how RNA viruses function, survive, and spread at different temperatures will improve our models of viral replication and transmission risk analyses.

First Genomic Evidence of a Henipa-like Virus in Brazil

The viral genus Henipavirus includes two highly virulent zoonotic viruses of serious public health concern. Hendra henipavirus and Nipah henipavirus outbreaks are restricted to Australia and Southeast Asia, respectively. The Henipavirus genus comprises mostly bat-borne viruses, but exceptions have already been described as novel viruses with rodents and shrews as reservoir animals. In the Americas, scarce evidence supports the circulation of these viruses. In this communication, we report a novel henipa-like virus from opossums (Marmosa demerarae) from a forest fragment area in the Peixe-Boi municipality, Brazil, after which the virus was named the Peixe-Boi virus (PBV). The application of next-generation sequencing and metagenomic approach led us to discover the original evidence of a henipa-like virus genome in Brazil and South America and the original description of a henipa-like virus in marsupial species. These findings emphasize the importance of further studies to characterize PBV and clarify its ecology, impact on public health, and its relationship with didelphid marsupials and henipaviruses.

Developing an empirical model for spillover and emergence: Orsay virus host range in Caenorhabditis

A lack of tractable experimental systems in which to test hypotheses about the ecological and evolutionary drivers of disease spillover and emergence has limited our understanding of these processes. Here we introduce a promising system: Caenorhabditis hosts and Orsay virus, a positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus that naturally infects C. elegans. We assayed species across the Caenorhabditis tree and found Orsay virus susceptibility in 21 of 84 wild strains belonging to 14 of 44 species. Confirming patterns documented in other systems, we detected effects of host phylogeny on susceptibility. We then tested whether susceptible strains were capable of transmitting Orsay virus by transplanting exposed hosts and determining whether they transmitted infection to conspecifics during serial passage. We found no evidence of transmission in 10 strains (virus undetectable after passaging in all replicates), evidence of low-level transmission in 5 strains (virus lost between passage 1 and 5 in at least one replicate) and evidence of sustained transmission in 6 strains (including all three experimental C. elegans strains) in at least one replicate. Transmission was strongly associated with viral amplification in exposed populations. Variation in Orsay virus susceptibility and transmission among Caenorhabditis strains suggests that the system could be powerful for studying spillover and emergence.

Understanding Host–Virus Interactions: Assessment of Innate Immune Responses in Mastomys natalensis Cells after Arenavirus Infection

Mastomys natalensis is the natural host of various arenaviruses, including the human-pathogenic Lassa virus. Homologous arenaviruses, defined here as those having M. natalensis as a natural host, can establish long-lasting infection in M. natalensis, while these animals rapidly clear arenaviruses having another rodent species as a natural host (heterologous viruses). Little is known about the mechanisms behind the underlying arenavirus–host barriers. The innate immune system, particularly the type I interferon (IFN) response, might play a role. In this study, we developed and validated RT-PCR assays to analyse the expression of M. natalensis interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs). We then used these assays to study if homologous and heterologous viruses induce different IFN responses in M. natalensis cells. Infection experiments were performed with the homologous Lassa and Morogoro viruses and the related but heterologous Mobala virus. Compared to the direct induction with IFN or Poly(I:C), arenaviruses generally induced a weak IFN response. However, the ISG-expression profiles of homologous and heterologous viruses were similar. Our data indicate that, at least in M. natalensis cells, the IFN system is not a major factor in the virus–host barrier for arenaviruses. Our system provides a valuable tool for future in vivo investigation of arenavirus host restrictions at the level of the innate immune response.

Predicting the potential for zoonotic transmission and host associations for novel viruses

Host-virus associations have co-evolved under ecological and evolutionary selection pressures that shape cross-species transmission and spillover to humans. Observed virus-host associations provide relevant context for newly discovered wildlife viruses to assess knowledge gaps in host-range and estimate pathways for potential human infection. Using models to predict virus-host networks, we predicted the likelihood of humans as hosts for 513 newly discovered viruses detected by large-scale wildlife surveillance at high-risk animal-human interfaces in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Predictions indicated that novel coronaviruses are likely to infect a greater number of host species than viruses from other families. Our models further characterize novel viruses through prioritization scores and directly inform surveillance targets to identify host ranges for newly discovered viruses.

Molecular, ecological, and behavioral drivers of the bat-virus relationship

Bats perform important ecological roles in our ecosystem. However, recent studies have demonstrated that bats are reservoirs of emerging viruses that have spilled over into humans and agricultural animals to cause severe diseases. These viruses include Hendra and Nipah paramyxoviruses, Ebola and Marburg filoviruses, and coronaviruses that are closely related to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and the recently emerged SARS-CoV-2. Intriguingly, bats that are naturally or experimentally infected with these viruses do not show clinical signs of disease. Here we have reviewed ecological, behavioral, and molecular factors that may influence the ability of bats to harbor viruses. We have summarized known zoonotic potential of bat-borne viruses and stress on the need for further studies to better understand the evolutionary relationship between bats and their viruses, along with discovering the intrinsic and external factors that facilitate the successful spillover of viruses from bats.

Efficacies of insecticide dog collars against visceral leishmaniasis in low and high-income areas and the effects for non-collared neighbor dogs

Previous studies demonstrated that insecticide collars are highly effective in reducing canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL); however, it is unclear if the efficacy differs by socioeconomic conditions across diverse communities. This study aimed fourfold: (i) to evaluate the protection of 4% impregnated deltamethrin collared (DMC) dogs in different areas of an endemic city for visceral leishmaniasis (VL); (ii) to analyze socioeconomic variables with the seroconversion rates; (iii) to analyze the indirect effect of DMC on untreated dogs in areas of intervention; and, (iv) to evaluate the potential transmission to other dogs in the same household when one positive dog is present. The study employed the municipality of Bauru, São Paulo, Brazil, as the area of interest and used Geographic Information System tools to fit binary logistic regression models.  Dogs were divided into three cohort studies: intervention with DMC (I), indirect effect of DMC (IE), and control (C). Pre-intervention, lower mean income was associated with higher rates of CVL and a 142% increase in the odds of transmission (OR = 1.42, p-value = 0.001, CI 1.14,1.77). Post-intervention, lower-income areas depicted greater efficacy (76%) than higher-income areas (45%). The overall efficacy of DMC in preventing CVL was 63%; however, seroconversion rates were higher for IE (6.02%) than C (3.78%), revealing the failure of the indirect protection of DMC to manage the spread of the disease among the general non-wearing DMC canine population living in the same area. The protected dogs may repel the vectors, and non-protected dogs attract them, creating a higher transmission rate for non-protected dogs. Greater seroconversion was observed for living with an infected dog (10.20% in IE and 8.75% in C) than for the indirect effect of DMC, demonstrating the social burden of CVL. Overall, uncollared dogs have three times higher odds of being infected with CVL than DMC dogs (p < 0.005), and uncollared dogs living with (an) infected dog(s) in the same household can reach 3.5 times higher odds than those living with negative ones (p < 0.005). The results may assist in enhancing public policies and minimizing inequality in low and middle-income countries that suffer from neglected diseases such as VL.

Disturbance Ecology Meets Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) Epidemiology: A Before-and-After Study on the Association between Forest Clearfelling and bTB Herd Risk in Cattle Herds

Disturbance ecology refers to the study of discrete processes that disrupt the structure or dynamics of an ecosystem. Such processes can, therefore, affect wildlife species ecology, including those that are important pathogen hosts. We report on an observational before-and-after study on the association between forest clearfelling and bovine tuberculosis (bTB) herd risk in cattle herds, an episystem where badgers (Meles meles) are the primary wildlife spillover host. The study design compared herd bTB breakdown risk for a period of 1 year prior to and after exposure to clearfelling across Ireland at sites cut in 2015-2017. The percent of herds positive rose from 3.47% prior to clearfelling to 4.08% after exposure. After controlling for confounders (e.g., herd size, herd type), we found that cattle herds significantly increased their odds of experiencing a bTB breakdown by 1.2-times (95%CIs: 1.07-1.36) up to 1 year after a clearfell risk period. Disturbance ecology of wildlife reservoirs is an understudied area with regards to shared endemic pathogens. Epidemiological observational studies are the first step in building an evidence base to assess the impact of such disturbance events; however, such studies are limited in inferring the mechanism for any changes in risk observed. The current cohort study suggested an association between clearfelling and bTB risk, which we speculate could relate to wildlife disturbance affecting pathogen spillback to cattle, though the study design precludes causal inference. Further studies are required. However, ultimately, integration of epidemiology with wildlife ecology will be important for understanding the underlying mechanisms involved, and to derive suitable effective management proposals, if required.

Productive Replication of HIV-1 but Not SIVmac in Small Ruminant Cells

Animal lentiviruses (LVs) have been proven to have the capacity to cross the species barrier, to adapt in the new hosts, and to increase their pathogenesis, therefore leading to the emergence of threatening diseases. However, their potential for widespread diffusion is limited by restrictive cellular factors that block viral replication in the cells of many species. In previous studies, we demonstrated that the restriction of CAEV infection of sheep choroid plexus cells was due to aberrant post-translation cleavage of the CAEV Env gp170 precursor. Later, we showed that the lack of specific receptor(s) for caprine encephalitis arthritis virus (CAEV) on the surface of human cells was the only barrier to their infection. Here, we examined whether small ruminant (SR) cells can support the replication of primate LVs. Three sheep and goat cell lines were inoculated with cell-free HIV-1 and SIVmac viral stocks or transfected with infectious molecular clone DNAs of these viruses. The two recombinant lentiviral clones contained the green fluorescent protein (GFP) reporter sequence. Infection was detected by GFP expression in target cells, and the infectious virus produced and released in the culture medium of treated cells was detected using the indicator TZM-bl cell line. Pseudotyped HIV-GFP and SIV-GFP with vesicular stomatitis virus G glycoprotein (VSV-G) allowed the cell receptors to be overcome for virus entry to further evaluate the viral replication/restriction in SR cells. As expected, neither HIV nor SIV viruses infected any of the SR cells. In contrast, the transfection of plasmid DNAs of the infectious molecular clones of both viruses in SR cells produced high titers of infectious viruses for human indicators, but not SR cell lines. Surprisingly, SR cells inoculated with HIV-GFP/VSV-G, but not SIV-GFP/VSV-G, expressed the GFP and produced a virus that efficiently infected the human indictor, but not the SR cells. Collectively, these data provide a demonstration of the lack of replication of the SIVmac genome in SR cells, while, in contrast, there was no restriction on the replication of the IV-1 genome in these cells. However, because of the lack of functional receptors to SIVmac and HIV-1 at the surface of SR cells, there is specific lentiviral entry.

Examining the paradox of urban disease ecology by linking the perspectives of Urban One Health and Ecology with Cities

The ecology of zoonotic, including vector-borne, diseases in urban social-ecological systems is influenced by complex interactions among human and environmental factors. Several characteristics contribute to the emergence and spread of infectious diseases in urban places, such as high human population densities, favorable habitat for vectors, and humans' close proximity to animals and their pathogens. On the other hand, urban living can contribute to the improvement of public health through better access to health services and creation of ecological and technological infrastructure that reduces disease burdens. Therefore, urbanization creates a disease ecology paradox through the interplay of urban health penalties and advantages for individual and community outcomes. To address this contradiction, we advocate a holistic Urban One Health perspective for managing urban systems, especially their green spaces and animal populations, in ways that more effectively control the spread of zoonotic diseases. This view should be coupled with an Ecology with Cities approach which emphasizes actionable science needed for urban planning, management and policymaking; developing disease and vector surveillance programs using citizen and community science methods; and improving education and communication actions that help diverse stakeholders understand the complexities of urban disease ecology. Such measures will enable scholars from many disciplines to collaborate with professionals, government officials, and others to tackle challenges of the urban disease paradox and create more sustainable, health-promoting environments.

[In the beginning it was zoonosis: One Health to combat this and future pandemics. SESPAS Report 2022]

La pandemia de COVID-19 ha hecho evidente la importancia de la interfaz animal-humano-medio ambiente en la emergencia de zoonosis. A pesar de que el salto de especie se considera un evento raro, el número de enfermedades infecciosas emergentes aumentó de manera significativa en la segunda mitad del siglo xx, siendo estas principalmente de carácter zoonótico y originadas en la fauna silvestre. Entre los determinantes asociados a la emergencia de zoonosis destacan la interacción humana con los ecosistemas, la pérdida de biodiversidad, los cambios en el uso del suelo, el cambio climático, el comercio y el consumo de fauna silvestre, etc. En el proceso del salto de especie existen diferentes fases de adaptación evolutiva entre el patógeno y la especie humana, variando desde su presencia en el reservorio animal sin infección humana hasta enfermedades exclusivamente humanas sin otros reservorios. El conocimiento de la evolución natural de las zoonosis permite identificar los puntos críticos para su control, al tiempo que posibilita identificar posibles candidatos para futuras pandemias. De forma específica, los avances en el conocimiento de los posibles reservorios del SARS-CoV-2 han contribuido a la toma de decisiones durante la pandemia. Por todo ello, y ante la variedad de escenarios que posibilitan el salto de especie y la evolución de los diferentes patógenos en un nuevo huésped, la vigilancia frente a la emergencia de zoonosis debe plantearse bajo la estrategia One Health.

Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk

At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals^1,2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife^3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

Ecology of Human Medical Enterprises: From Disease Ecology of Zoonoses, Cancer Ecology Through to Medical Ecology of Human Microbiomes

In nature, the interaction between pathogens and their hosts is only one of a handful of interaction relationships between species, including parasitism, predation, competition, symbiosis, commensalism, and among others. From a non-anthropocentric view, parasitism has relatively fewer essential differences from the other relationships; but from an anthropocentric view, parasitism and predation against humans and their well-beings and belongings are frequently related to heinous diseases. Specifically, treating (managing) diseases of humans, crops and forests, pets, livestock, and wildlife constitute the so-termed medical enterprises (sciences and technologies) humans endeavor in biomedicine and clinical medicine, veterinary, plant protection, and wildlife conservation. In recent years, the significance of ecological science to medicines has received rising attentions, and the emergence and pandemic of COVID-19 appear accelerating the trend. The facts that diseases are simply one of the fundamental ecological relationships in nature, and the study of the relationships between species and their environment is a core mission of ecology highlight the critical importance of ecological science. Nevertheless, current studies on the ecology of medical enterprises are highly fragmented. Here, we (i) conceptually overview the fields of disease ecology of wildlife, cancer ecology and evolution, medical ecology of human microbiome-associated diseases and infectious diseases, and integrated pest management of crops and forests, across major medical enterprises. (ii) Explore the necessity and feasibility for a unified medical ecology that spans biomedicine, clinical medicine, veterinary, crop (forest and wildlife) protection, and biodiversity conservation. (iii) Suggest that a unified medical ecology of human diseases is both necessary and feasible, but laissez-faire terminologies in other human medical enterprises may be preferred. (iv) Suggest that the evo-eco paradigm for cancer research can play a similar role of evo-devo in evolutionary developmental biology. (v) Summarized 40 key ecological principles/theories in current disease-, cancer-, and medical-ecology literatures. (vi) Identified key cross-disciplinary discovery fields for medical/disease ecology in coming decade including bioinformatics and computational ecology, single cell ecology, theoretical ecology, complexity science, and the integrated studies of ecology and evolution. Finally, deep understanding of medical ecology is of obvious importance for the safety of human beings and perhaps for all living things on the planet.

Predictors of human-infective RNA virus discovery in the United States, China, and Africa, an ecological study

Background

The variation in the pathogen type as well as the spatial heterogeneity of predictors make the generality of any associations with pathogen discovery debatable. Our previous work confirmed that the association of a group of predictors differed across different types of RNA viruses, yet there have been no previous comparisons of the specific predictors for RNA virus discovery in different regions. The aim of the current study was to close the gap by investigating whether predictors of discovery rates within three regions-the United States, China, and Africa-differ from one another and from those at the global level.

Methods

Based on a comprehensive list of human-infective RNA viruses, we collated published data on first discovery of each species in each region. We used a Poisson boosted regression tree (BRT) model to examine the relationship between virus discovery and 33 predictors representing climate, socio-economics, land use, and biodiversity across each region separately. The discovery probability in three regions in 2010-2019 was mapped using the fitted models and historical predictors.

Results

The numbers of human-infective virus species discovered in the United States, China, and Africa up to 2019 were 95, 80, and 107 respectively, with China lagging behind the other two regions. In each region, discoveries were clustered in hotspots. BRT modelling suggested that in all three regions RNA virus discovery was better predicted by land use and socio-economic variables than climatic variables and biodiversity, although the relative importance of these predictors varied by region. Map of virus discovery probability in 2010-2019 indicated several new hotspots outside historical high-risk areas. Most new virus species since 2010 in each region (6/6 in the United States, 19/19 in China, 12/19 in Africa) were discovered in high-risk areas as predicted by our model.

Conclusions

The drivers of spatiotemporal variation in virus discovery rates vary in different regions of the world. Within regions virus discovery is driven mainly by land-use and socio-economic variables; climate and biodiversity variables are consistently less important predictors than at a global scale. Potential new discovery hotspots in 2010-2019 are identified. Results from the study could guide active surveillance for new human-infective viruses in local high-risk areas.

Funding

FFZ is funded by the Darwin Trust of Edinburgh (https://darwintrust.bio.ed.ac.uk/). MEJW has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 874735 (VEO) (https://www.veo-europe.eu/).

Appearance and re-appearance of zoonotic disease during the pandemic period: Long-term monitoring and analysis of zoonosis is crucial to confirm the animal origin of SARS-CoV-2 and monkeypox virus

During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, along with the SARS-CoV-2 infection, another zoonotic origin virus emerged: monkeypox virus. Researchers are trying to screen the wild animals to pinpoint the exact origin of these viruses in both cases. For SARS-CoV-2, scientists who were studying the zoonotic transfer of the virus are currently divided along four distinct lines: the first group suspects the pangolin as the source of the SARS-CoV-2 virus; the second one is the bat origin of the virus; the third group includes both the pangolins and bat, and fourth group informed about the origin of several other animals. Similarly, scientists have noted significant host ranges of the virus for the monkeypox virus, such as monkeys, chimpanzees, rodents, prairie dogs, etc. Therefore, we should understand some essential points of the zoonosis of these two important viruses, such as animal origin, natural reservoir, intermediate hosts, virus spillover events (spillover time, and frequency of infecting the one host to another or reservoir to human), etc. We appeal for long-term monitoring through the teamwork of scientists involving the fields of wildlife biology, veterinary medicine,molecular biology, virology, health science, and computational biology. It is essential to create an integrated multi-national scientific task force with adequate funding from all countries originating in the regions of these two viruses. It could explore the mechanisms involving not only the SARS-CoV-2 and monkeypox virus origin, host range, and all spillover events of these viruses but also the future outbreak of wildlife-based epidemics.

Coronavirus and Paramyxovirus Shedding by Bats in a Cave and Buildings in Ethiopia

Bats are important hosts of zoonotic viruses with pandemic potential, including filoviruses, MERS-Coronavirus (CoV), SARS-CoV -1, and likely SARS-CoV-2. Viral infection and transmission among wildlife are dependent on a combination of factors that include host ecology and immunology, life history traits, roosting habitats, biogeography, and external stressors. Between 2016 and 2018, four species of insectivorous bats from a readily accessed roadside cave and buildings in Ethiopia were sampled and tested for viruses using consensus PCR assays for five viral families/genera. Previously identified and novel coronaviruses and paramyxoviruses were identified in 99 of the 589 sampled bats. Bats sampled from the cave site were more likely to test positive for a CoV than bats sampled from buildings; viral shedding was more common in the wet season; and rectal swabs were the most common sample type to test positive. A previously undescribed alphacoronavirus was detected in two bat species from different taxonomic families, sampling interfaces, geographic locations, and years. These findings expand knowledge of the range and diversity of coronaviruses and paramyxoviruses in insectivorous bats in Ethiopia and reinforce that an improved understanding of viral diversity and species-specific shedding dynamics is important for designing informed zoonotic disease surveillance and spillover risk reduction efforts.

Investigation on Natural Infection of Covert Mortality Nodavirus in Farmed Giant Freshwater Prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii)

Simple Summary

Covert mortality nodavirus (CMNV) is a newly discovered aquatic animal virus in recent years. Here, we detected CMNV positive in farmed giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) from Jiangsu, China by TaqMan RT-qPCR. Meanwhile, in situ hybridization and histological analysis indicated that the intestine, gill, hepatopancreas and ovary of giant freshwater prawn were the target organs of CMNV. In addition, a large number of CMNV-like particles were observed in the hepatopancreas and gill tissues under transmission electron microscopy. Overall, our study confirms that giant freshwater prawn is a susceptible host of CMNV, further expands the known host range of CMNV, and provided a new direction for further investigation and exploration of multiple pathogenic factors of giant freshwater prawn disease.

Abstract

Covert mortality nodavirus (CMNV), from the Nodaviridae family, is characterized by its unique cross-species transmission and wide epidemic distribution features. In this study, Macrobrachium rosenbergii was proved to be infected naturally by CMNV, which further expand the known host range of CMNV. Here, 61.9% (70/113) of the M. rosenbergii samples collected from Jiangsu Province were CMNV positive in the TaqMan RT-qPCR assay, which indicated the high prevalence of CMNV in M. rosenbergii. Meanwhile, the sequences of CMNV RdRp gene cloned from M. rosenbergii were highly identical to that of the original CMNV isolate from Penaeus vannamei. In situ hybridization (ISH) and histology analysis indicated that the intestine, gill, hepatopancreas and ovary were the targeted organs of CMNV infection in M. rosenbergii, and obvious histopathological damage including vacuolation and karyopyknosis were occurred in the above organs. Notably, the presence of CMNV in gonad alerted its potential risk of vertical transmission in M. rosenbergii. Additionally, numerous CMNV-like particles could be observed in tissues of hepatopancreas and gill under transmission electron microscopy. Collectively, our results call for concern of the potential negative impact of the spread and prevalence of CMNV in M. rosenbergii on its aquaculture, as well as providing a renewed orientation for further investigation and exploration of the diverse pathogenic factors causing M. rosenbergii diseases.

Potential zoonotic swine enteric viruses: The risk ignored for public health

Swine could serve as a natural reservoir for a large variety of viruses, including potential zoonotic enteric viruses. The presence of viruses with high genetic similarity between porcine and human strains may result in the emergence of zoonotic or xenozoonotic infections. Furthermore, the globalization and intensification of swine industries exacerbate the transmission and evolution of zoonotic viruses among swine herds and individuals working in swine-related occupations. To effectively prevent the public health risks posed by zoonotic swine enteric viruses, designing, and implementing a comprehensive measure for early diagnosis, prevention, and mitigation, requires interdisciplinary a collaborative ''One Health" approach from veterinarians, environmental and public health professionals, and the swine industry. In this paper, we reviewed the current knowledge of selected potential zoonotic swine enteric viruses and explored swine intensive production and its associated public health risks.

Bats host the most virulent-but not the most dangerous-zoonotic viruses

SignificanceThe clear need to mitigate zoonotic risk has fueled increased viral discovery in specific reservoir host taxa. We show that a combination of viral and reservoir traits can predict zoonotic virus virulence and transmissibility in humans, supporting the hypothesis that bats harbor exceptionally virulent zoonoses. However, pandemic prevention requires thinking beyond zoonotic capacity, virulence, and transmissibility to consider collective "burden" on human health. For this, viral discovery targeting specific reservoirs may be inefficient as death burden correlates with viral, not reservoir, traits, and depends on context-specific epidemiological dynamics across and beyond the human-animal interface. These findings suggest that longitudinal studies of viral dynamics in reservoir and spillover host populations may offer the most effective strategy for mitigating zoonotic risk.

Bats host the most virulent-but not the most dangerous-zoonotic viruses

SignificanceThe clear need to mitigate zoonotic risk has fueled increased viral discovery in specific reservoir host taxa. We show that a combination of viral and reservoir traits can predict zoonotic virus virulence and transmissibility in humans, supporting the hypothesis that bats harbor exceptionally virulent zoonoses. However, pandemic prevention requires thinking beyond zoonotic capacity, virulence, and transmissibility to consider collective "burden" on human health. For this, viral discovery targeting specific reservoirs may be inefficient as death burden correlates with viral, not reservoir, traits, and depends on context-specific epidemiological dynamics across and beyond the human-animal interface. These findings suggest that longitudinal studies of viral dynamics in reservoir and spillover host populations may offer the most effective strategy for mitigating zoonotic risk.