27 years of benthic and coral community dynamics on turbid, highly urbanised reefs off Singapore

Turbidity buffers coral bleaching under extreme wind and rainfall conditions

Coral reefs in turbid waters have been hypothesized to be a refuge from climate change. These naturally occurring communities were brought into the spotlight because some of their species exhibited record levels of resistance to marine heatwaves (MHWs) by disturbance-tolerant corals. However, long-term monitoring data on the drivers of coral bleaching in these extreme reef habitats are scarce. Here, we describe the population structure and bleaching rates of a widespread and resilient coral (Siderastrea stellata). We examine the links between environmental factors, namely, rainfall, wind speed, turbidity, solar irradiance, sea surface temperature, MHWs, and coral bleaching status under the worst recorded drought cycle in the Tropical South Atlantic (2013-2015). We examined 2880 colonies, most of which (∼93%) fit in the size group of 2-10 cm, with a small number (∼1%) of larger and older colonies (>20 cm). The results indicated the absence of MHWs and normal sea surface temperature variations (between 26.6 °C and 29.3 °C), however, we detected an extreme rainfall deficit (30-40% less annual volume precipitation). In general, a high proportion (44-84%) of bleached colonies was found throughout the months when turbidity decreased. Siderastrea is the only reef-building coral that comprises this seascape with encrusting and low-relief colonies. During drought periods, cloudiness is reduced, turbidity and wind speed are reduced, and solar irradiance increase, driving coral bleaching in turbid reefs. However, episodic rainfall and higher wind speeds increase turbidity and decrease coral bleaching. Our hypothesis is that turbidity decreases during drought periods which increases bleaching risk to corals even without thermal stress. Our results suggest that turbidity may have related to wind and rainfall to provoke the coral bleaching phenomenon.

Standardization of in situ coral bleaching measurements highlights the variability in responses across genera, morphologies, and regions

Marine heatwaves and regional coral bleaching events have become more frequent and severe across the world's oceans over the last several decades due to global climate change. Observational studies have documented spatiotemporal variation in the responses of reef-building corals to thermal stress within and among taxa across geographic scales. Although many tools exist for predicting, detecting, and quantifying coral bleaching, it remains difficult to compare bleaching severity (e.g., percent cover of bleached surface areas) among studies and across species or regions. For this review, we compiled over 2,100 in situ coral bleaching observations representing 87 reef-building coral genera and 250 species of common morphological groups from a total of 74 peer-reviewed scientific articles, encompassing three broad geographic regions (Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans). While bleaching severity was found to vary by region, genus, and morphology, we found that both genera and morphologies responded differently to thermal stress across regions. These patterns were complicated by (i) inconsistent methods and response metrics across studies; (ii) differing ecological scales of observations (i.e., individual colony-level vs. population or community-level); and (iii) temporal variability in surveys with respect to the onset of thermal stress and the chronology of bleaching episodes. To improve cross-study comparisons, we recommend that future surveys prioritize measuring bleaching in the same individual coral colonies over time and incorporate the severity and timing of warming into their analyses. By reevaluating and standardizing the ways in which coral bleaching is quantified, researchers will be able to track responses to marine heatwaves with increased rigor, precision, and accuracy.

Baseline dynamics of Symbiodiniaceae genera and photochemical efficiency in corals from reefs with different thermal histories

Ocean warming and marine heatwaves induced by climate change are impacting coral reefs globally, leading to coral bleaching and mortality. Yet, coral resistance and resilience to warming are not uniform across reef sites and corals can show inter- and intraspecific variability. To understand changes in coral health and to elucidate mechanisms of coral thermal tolerance, baseline data on the dynamics of coral holobiont performance under non-stressed conditions are needed. We monitored the seasonal dynamics of algal symbionts (family Symbiodiniaceae) hosted by corals from a chronically warmed and thermally variable reef compared to a thermally stable reef in southern Taiwan over 15 months. We assessed the genera and photochemical efficiency of Symbiodiniaceae in three coral species: Acropora nana, Pocillopora acuta, and Porites lutea. Both Durusdinium and Cladocopium were present in all coral species at both reef sites across all seasons, but general trends in their detection (based on qPCR cycle) varied between sites and among species. Photochemical efficiency (i.e., maximum quantum yield; F_v/F_m) was relatively similar between reef sites but differed consistently among species; no clear evidence of seasonal trends in F_v/F_m was found. Quantifying natural Symbiodiniaceae dynamics can help facilitate a more comprehensive interpretation of thermal tolerance response as well as plasticity potential of the coral holobiont.

Coral persistence despite marginal conditions in the Port of Miami

Coral cover has declined worldwide due to anthropogenic stressors that manifest on both global and local scales. Coral communities that exist in extreme conditions can provide information on how these stressors influence ecosystem structure, with implications for their persistence under future conditions. The Port of Miami is located within an urbanized environment, with active coastal development, as well as commercial shipping and recreational boating activity. Monitoring of sites throughout the Port since 2018 has revealed periodic extremes in temperature, seawater pH, and salinity, far in excess of what have been measured in most coral reef environments. Despite conditions that would kill many reef species, we have documented diverse coral communities growing on artificial substrates at these sites-reflecting remarkable tolerance to environmental stressors. Furthermore, many of the more prevalent species within these communities are now conspicuously absent or in low abundance on nearby reefs, owing to their susceptibility and exposure to stony coral tissue loss disease. Natural reef frameworks, however, are largely absent at the urban sites and while diverse fish communities are documented, it is unlikely that these communities provide the same goods and services as natural reef habitats. Regardless, the existence of these communities indicates unlikely persistence and highlights the potential for coexistence of threatened species in anthropogenic environments, provided that suitable stewardship strategies are in place.

Limited recovery following a massive seagrass decline in subarctic eastern Canada

Over the last few decades, there has been an increasing recognition for seagrasses' contribution to the functioning of nearshore ecosystems and climate change mitigation. Nevertheless, seagrass ecosystems have been deteriorating globally at an accelerating rate during recent decades. In 2017, research into the condition of eelgrass (Zostera marina) along the eastern coast of James Bay, Canada, was initiated in response to reports of eelgrass decline by the Cree First Nations of Eeyou Istchee. As part of this research, we compiled and analyzed two decades of eelgrass cover data and three decades of eelgrass monitoring data (biomass and density) to detect changes and assess possible environmental drivers. We detected a major decline in eelgrass condition between 1995 and 1999, which encompassed the entire east coast of James Bay. Surveys conducted in 2019 and 2020 indicated limited changes post-decline, for example, low eelgrass cover (<25%), low aboveground biomass, smaller shoots than before 1995, and marginally low densities persisted at most sites. Overall, the synthesized datasets show a 40% loss of eelgrass meadows with >50% cover in eastern James Bay since 1995, representing the largest scale eelgrass decline documented in eastern Canada since the massive die-off event that occurred in the 1930s along the North Atlantic coast. Using biomass data collected since 1982, but geographically limited to the sector of the coast near the regulated La Grande River, generalized additive modeling revealed eelgrass meadows are affected by local sea surface temperature, early ice breakup, and higher summer freshwater discharge. Our results caution against assuming subarctic seagrass ecosystems have avoided recent global declines or will benefit from ongoing climate warming.

Scale dependence of coral reef oases and their environmental correlates

Identifying relatively intact areas within ecosystems and determining the conditions favoring their existence is necessary for effective management in the context of widespread environmental degradation. In this study, we used 3766 surveys of randomly selected sites in the United States and U.S. Territories to identify the correlates of sites categorized as "oases" (defined as sites with relatively high total coral cover). We used occupancy models to evaluate the influence of 10 environmental predictors on the probability that an area (21.2-km² cell) would harbor coral oases defined at four spatial extents: cross-basin, basin, region, and subregion. Across all four spatial extents, oases were more likely to occur in habitats with high light attenuation. The influence of the other environmental predictors on the probability of oasis occurrence were less consistent and varied with the scale of observation. Oases were most likely in areas of low human population density, but this effect was evident only at the cross-basin and subregional extents. At the regional and subregional extents oases were more likely where sea-surface temperature was more variable, whereas at the larger spatial extents the opposite was true. By identifying the correlates of oasis occurrence, the model can inform the prioritization of reef areas for management. Areas with biophysical conditions that confer corals with physiological resilience, as well as limited human impacts, likely support coral reef oases across spatial extents. Our approach is widely applicable to the development of conservation strategies to protect biodiversity and ecosystems in an era of magnified human disturbance.

Unraveling Moreton Bay reef history: An urban high-latitude setting for coral development

High-latitude habitats have become increasingly recognized as a potential climate refuge for coral communities, supporting both tropical and sub-tropical corals. Despite the increasing interest in the ecology of high-latitude corals, our current knowledge of their temporal dynamics is limited, especially within urbanized settings. Here, we examined the entire history of a high-latitude coral reef ecosystem in an urbanized setting. We surveyed Holocene fossil and modern coral communities along a water quality gradient in Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, representing near-river (Wellington Point), intermediate (Peel Island) and near-oceanic (Myora Reef) environmental conditions. Reef accretion occurred during three discrete episodes from 7,400 to 5,800, 4,900 to 3,000, and 2,100 to 300 years BP, each separated by roughly 1,000-year hiatuses, where conditions were probably not favorable enough for reef accretion to occur. Episodic reef initiation and termination suggests strong environmental controls over reef development. Eastern Australian Holocene reef growth and cessation has been linked previously to sea level fluctuations and climatic regimes (e.g., ENSO). Within each reef building episode, there were few changes in coral assemblages over time. The fast growing and branching Acropora had a relative abundance greater than 90% in ten of the 13 sediment cores and all the submerged terrace excavations. However, substantial modification of adjacent coastal catchments from European colonization in the mid 1800’s resulted in increased sediment and nutrient discharge into the bay. This perturbation coincided with a greater abundance of stress-tolerant coral species (e.g., Dipsastraea, Goniastrea, and Goniopora) and the near extirpation of Acropora in the modern coral communities of near-river and intermediate sites due to poor water quality. In contrast, the modern coral assemblage at the near-oceanic site (Myora Reef) continues to be dominated by Acropora, likely due to the consistent oceanic input, resulting in lower sediment loading and higher water quality. In order for conditions for reef growth to improve, especially within the near-river portions of the bay, further sediment and nutrient runoff from anthropogenic land-use changes need to be mitigated. Given the historical abundance of Acropora, we recommend this genus be used as an indicator of natural resource management success in the bay.

A critical evaluation of benthic phase shift studies on coral reefs

Coral reef decline has accelerated in the last two decades resulting in substantial research into the phenomenon of 'phase shifts' or 'regime shifts'. However, the conclusions drawn from this research have been varied. Some of this variability may stem from methodological approaches, although the extent to which these factors have shaped our understanding remain largely unexplored. To examine this, we conducted a systematic review of the literature. In doing so, we revealed marked variability in the approaches used for studying phase shifts. Notably, very few studies clearly defined what they meant by phase shifts. Therefore, we developed a clarified definition of phase shifts, which specifically defined persistence and dominance. The applicability of this definition was tested on multi-decadal benthic composition data on the Great Barrier Reef. The number of shifts depended critically on the definition selected, suggesting that this may be a primary reason underpinning the variability in past results.

Coral health assessment in Malaysia: a case study of Pulau Anak Datai, Langkawi

The coral health of Pulau Anak Datai (PAD), located off the northwest of Langkawi, Malaysia, was assessed using the Coral Health Index (CHI) method. Three ecological parameters, namely, benthic cover, fish biomass, and microbes (Vibrio) were determined at four sites around the island in 2019. In addition, community parameters such as coral mortality index, coral richness, relative abundance, diversity index, Evenness tests, and reef morphology were measured for each site. The results revealed that the benthic cover consists of less than 40% of scleractinian corals at all sites. A total of 25 genera of hard corals comprising of 11 families and 1 scleractinian Incertae sedis were observed, with the most dominant corals belong to the genera Porites, Favites, and Diploastrea. The average fish biomass of PAD was low (16.76 g/m²), with only 19 non-cryptic fish species observed. The abundance of Vibrio around the island was within the average range of 29.58 cfu/ml. Based on the benthos, fish, and Vibrio values, the Coral Health Index (CHI) of PAD was classified on the low side of the fair status. All sites tended toward high values of the mortality index (MI > 0.33). Reef morphology was strongly influenced by stress-tolerant corals, dominated by massive and sub-massive corals. The data presented here suggested that the reefs of PAD could be rated as stressed and becoming unhealthy and disturbed. However, in view of the rarity of coral reef ecosystems in the Straits of Malacca, this island deserves increased attention for conservation planning and coral reef protection.

Urbanization comprehensively impairs biological rhythms in coral holobionts

Coral reefs are in global decline due to climate change and anthropogenic influences (Hughes et al., Conservation Biology, 27: 261-269, 2013). Near coastal cities or other densely populated areas, coral reefs face a range of additional challenges. While considerable progress has been made in understanding coral responses to acute individual stressors (Dominoni et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution, 4: 502-511, 2020), the impacts of chronic exposure to varying combinations of sensory pollutants are largely unknown. To investigate the impacts of urban proximity on corals, we conducted a year-long in-natura study-incorporating sampling at diel, monthly, and seasonal time points-in which we compared corals from an urban area to corals from a proximal non-urban area. Here we reveal that despite appearing relatively healthy, natural biorhythms and environmental sensory systems were extensively disturbed in corals from the urban environment. Transcriptomic data indicated poor symbiont performance, disturbance to gametogenic cycles, and loss or shifted seasonality of vital biological processes. Altered seasonality patterns were also observed in the microbiomes of the urban coral population, signifying the impact of urbanization on the holobiont, rather than the coral host alone. These results should raise alarm regarding the largely unknown long-term impacts of sensory pollution on the resilience and survival of coral reefs close to coastal communities.

Light availability regulated by particulate organic matter affects coral assemblages on a turbid fringing reef

Recently, increasing evidence suggests that reef-building corals exposed to elevated suspended solids (SS) are largely structured by changes in underwater light availability (ULA). However, there are few direct and quantitative observations in situ support for this hypothesis; in particular, the contribution of SS to the diffuse attenuation coefficient of the photosynthetically active radiation (K_d-PAR) variations is not yet fully understood. Here, we investigated the variations in ULA, the structure of coral assemblages, and the concentration and composition of SS on the Luhuitou fringing reef, Sanya, China. Light attenuation was rapid (K_d-PAR: 0.60 ± 0.39 m^-1) resulting in a shallow euphotic depth (Z_eu-PAR) (<11 m). Benthic PAR showed significant positive correlations with branching and corymbose corals (e.g. Acropora spp.), while massive and encrusting species (e.g. Porites spp.) dominated the coral communities and showed no significant correlations with PAR. These results indicate that the depth range available for coral growth is shallow and the tolerance to low-light stress differs among coral species. Notably, K_d-PAR showed no significant correlations with the grain size fractions of SS, whereas significant positive correlations were found with its organic fraction content, demonstrating that the light attenuation of SS is mainly regulated by particulate organic matter (POM). Intriguingly, our isotopic evidence revealed that POM concentration contributed the most to changes in K_d-PAR, with its source being slightly less important. Combined, our results highlight ULA regulated by POM is an important factor in contributing to changes in coral assemblages on inshore turbid reefs, and reducing the input of terrestrial materials, especially POM, is an effective measure to alleviate the low-light stress on sensitive coral species.

Differential Response of the Microbiome of Pocillopora acuta to Reciprocal Transplantation Within Singapore

As corals continue to decline globally, particularly due to climate change, it is vital to understand the extent to which their microbiome may confer an adaptive resilience against environmental stress. Corals that survive on the urban reefs of Singapore are ideal candidates to study the association of scleractinians with their microbiome, which in turn can inform reef conservation and management. In this study, we monitored differences in the microbiome of Pocillopora acuta colonies reciprocally transplanted between two reefs, Raffles and Kusu, within the Port of Singapore, where corals face intense anthropogenic impacts. Pocillopora acuta had previously been shown to host distinct microbial communities between these two reefs. Amplicon sequencing (16S rRNA) was used to assess the coral microbiomes at 1, 2, 4, and 10 days post-transplantation. Coral microbiomes responded rapidly to transplantation, becoming similar to those of the local corals at the destination reef within one day at Raffles and within two days at Kusu. Elevated nitrate concentrations were detected at Raffles for the duration of the study, potentially influencing the microbiome's response to transplantation. The persistence of corals within the port of Singapore highlights the ability of corals to adapt to stressful environments. Further, coral resilience appears to coincide with a dynamic microbiome which can undergo shifts in composition without succumbing to dysbiosis.

A community and functional comparison of coral and reef fish assemblages between four decades of coastal urbanisation and thermal stress

Urbanized coral reefs experience anthropogenic disturbances caused by coastal development, pollution, and nutrient runoff, resulting in turbid, marginal conditions in which only certain species can persist. Mortality effects are exacerbated by increasingly regular thermal stress events, leading to shifts towards novel communities dominated by habitat generalists and species with low structural complexity.There is limited data on the turnover processes that occur due to this convergence of anthropogenic stressors, and how novel urban ecosystems are structured both at the community and functional levels. As such, it is unclear how they will respond to future disturbance events.Here, we examine the patterns of coral reef community change and determine whether ecosystem functions provided by specialist species are lost post-disturbance. We present a comparison of community and functional trait-based changes for scleractinian coral genera and reef fish species assemblages subject to coastal development, coastal modification, and mass bleaching between two time periods, 1975-1976 and 2018, in Nakagusuku Bay, Okinawa, Japan.We observed an increase in fish habitat generalists, a dominance shift from branching to massive/sub-massive corals and increasing site-based coral genera richness between years. Fish and coral communities significantly reassembled, but functional trait-based multivariate space remained constant, indicating a turnover of species with similar traits. A compression of coral habitat occurred, with shallow (<5 m) and deep (>8 m) coral genera shifting towards the mid-depths (5-8 m).We show that although reef species assemblages altered post disturbance, new communities retained similar ecosystem functions. This result could be linked to the stressors experienced by urban reefs, which reflect those that will occur at an increasing frequency globally in the near future. Yet, even after shifts to disturbed communities, these fully functioning reef systems may maintain high conservation value.

Abandoned, lost, or discarded fishing gear at urban coastlines

Abandoned, lost, or discarded fishing gear (ALDFG) is considered a major threat to ocean biodiversity. Yet, little is known of the interactive impacts of ALDFGs and urban nearshore biodiversity and habitats, especially in Southeast Asia where fisheries efforts are increasing. We identified ALDFG hotspots around Singapore-where 80% of coastal areas are urbanized or anthropogenically modified. Fishing lines and nets were the most common ALDFGs recovered; with strong correlations between ALDFG presence and beaches, intertidal, mangroves, as well as sites with significant coastal modifications. Plastic polymer nets trapped the highest organism diversity and abundance. A total of 1052 trapped individuals comprising 124 species were recovered, the majority in classes Merostomata, Actinopterygii and Malacostraca. The most abundant trapped species was Carcinoscorpius rotundicauda and the highest mortality presentation was in Class Actinopterygii. This study demonstrates that ALDFGs remain a threat to marine biodiversity within urban coastal habitats and at heavily modified shorelines.

Marine litter pollution on coral reefs of Darvel Bay (East Sabah, Malaysia)

Marine litter is recognized as an increasing component of marine ecosystem pollution. In this baseline study, we document the magnitude, types, sources, and potential impacts of litter on six coral reefs in East Sabah. We applied a simplified classification of litter to extract abundance data from video transects. The average density was 10.7 items per 100 m². Plastics represent 91% and the remaining 9% were metal, glass, and wood. Most (~70%) plastics are single-use items derived from dumping. Discarded fishing gear accounts for ~25%. Litter pollution increases closer to urban developments, with Sakar reef having higher densities (51 items per 100 m²), and higher Clean Coast Index (CCI = 10.2, dirty) and higher Plastic Abundance Index (PAI = 4.68) scores. This method could and should be readily integrated into ongoing monitoring programs to support assessments of the extent and magnitude of marine litter pollution on reefs worldwide.

Growth and carbonate production of crustose coralline algae on a degraded turbid reef system

Crustose coralline algae (CCA) and other encrusting calcifiers drive carbonate production on coral reefs. However, little is known about the rates of growth and calcification of these organisms within degraded turbid reef systems. Here we deployed settlement cards (N = 764) across seven reefs in Singapore for two years to examine spatio-temporal variation in encrusting community composition and CCA carbonate production. Our results showed that CCA was the dominant encrusting taxa (63.7% ± 18.3SD) across reefs. CCA carbonate production rates (0.009-0.052 g cm^-2 yr^-1) were less than half of those reported for most Indo-Pacific reefs, but similar to other turbid reef systems. Highest CCA carbonate production rates were observed furthest from Singapore's main shipping port, due to a relative increase in CCA cover on the offshore reefs. Our results suggest that proximity to areas of high industrialisation and ship traffic may reduce the cover of encrusting calcifying organisms and CCA production rates which may have negative, long-term implications for the stabilisation of nearshore reefs in urbanised settings.

Untangling the molecular basis of coral response to sedimentation

Urbanized coral reefs are often chronically affected by sedimentation and reduced light levels, yet many species of corals appear to be able to thrive under these highly disturbed conditions. Recently, these marginal ecosystems have gained attention as potential climate change refugia due to the shading effect of suspended sediment, as well as potential reservoirs for stress-tolerant species. However, little research exists on the impact of sedimentation on coral physiology, particularly at the molecular level. Here, we investigated the transcriptomic response to sediment stress in corals of the family Merulinidae from a chronically turbid reef (one genet each of Goniastrea pectinata and Mycedium elephantotus from Singapore) and a clear-water reef (multiple genets of G. pectinata from the Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat). In two ex-situ experiments, we exposed corals to either natural sediment or artificial sediment enriched with organic matter and used whole-transcriptome sequencing (RNA sequencing) to quantify gene expression. Analysis revealed a shared basis for the coral transcriptomic response to sediment stress, which involves the expression of genes broadly related to energy metabolism and immune response. In particular, sediment exposure induced upregulation of anaerobic glycolysis and glyoxylate bypass enzymes, as well as genes involved in hydrogen sulphide metabolism and in pathogen pattern recognition. Our results point towards hypoxia as a probable driver of this transcriptomic response, providing a molecular basis to previous work that identified hypoxia as a primary cause of tissue necrosis in sediment-stressed corals. Potential metabolic and immunity trade-offs of corals living under chronic sedimentation should be considered in future studies on the ecology and conservation of turbid reefs.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of coral-macroalgal interactions and their impacts on coral growth on urbanised reefs

Interactions between corals and macroalgae are important in influencing benthic community structures on coral reefs and have become increasingly common occurrences. However, little is known about their temporal variation as most studies have only documented them from single surveys. To investigate the dynamics of coral-macroalgal interactions, we surveyed three urbanised reefs in Singapore bi-monthly for three years. We found that the frequency of coral-macroalgal interactions varied greatly across sites and seasons. The extent of coral-macroalgal contact was positively correlated with macroalgal abundance, but the correlation differed significantly among macroalgal genera. The growth rates of Goniopora, Montipora and Pavona corals, but not Platygra, were also negatively correlated with the extent of macroalgal interactions. Overall, our results highlight that coral-macroalgal interactions are spatially and temporally dynamic, with varying effects among coral species. It is critical to consider seasonal fluctuations of macroalgae if the overall long-term impacts of macroalgae are to be understood.

Assessing the risk of light reduction from natural sediment resuspension events and dredging activities in an inshore turbid reef environment

The reduction in benthic light from natural sediment resuspension events, dredging activities and clouds was quantified over multiple time periods (days to weeks) from a 3-year in-situ field study in the inshore turbid-zone coral communities of the Great Barrier Reef. The results were then used to examine the tolerance levels of three coral species and a sponge to light reduction and associated changes in spectral light quality (in conjunction with elevated sediment concentrations) in a 28-day laboratory-based study. All species survived the exposures but sub-lethal responses involving changes in pigmentation, lipids and lipid ratios were observed. A pocilloporid coral was the most sensitive taxon, with a 28-d EC10 value for bleaching (dissociation of the symbiosis) of 2.7 mol photons m² d^-1. The possibility of such light reduction levels occurring naturally and/or during maintenance dredging activities was then examined using the 3-year in-situ field study as part of a risk assessment.

Learning from differences: Abiotic determinism of benthic communities in Northern Taiwan

Differences in the initial configuration of ecological communities may lead to contrasting trajectories when facing environmental changes. Here, we propose to uncover the determinism of benthic communities by carrying out a detailed investigation of their response to small-scale modification of environmental conditions, including physical, chemical, and geological factors. At ten locations (confounding site and depth) in Northern Taiwan, communities were delineated using a morpho-functional classification of the organisms. A k-means clustering was used to identify k homogenous groups among transects. Their environmental determinism was examined by combining this result with 16 environmental variables of transect conditions into a regression tree framework. Biotic and abiotic data were further analyzed with a Multivariate Regression Tree (MRT) to ascertain the hierarchical environmental determinism. The classifications produced by both approaches were compared using the Adjusted Rand index (ARI) to assess the predictive power of unsupervised clustering on its missing explanatory components (abiotic variables). k-means and MRT produced five clusters, respectively, with a similarity of 0.82 in ARI. Wave motion, followed by substrate types resolved most of the variance, while chemical factors in this study were uniform throughout the region. Comparable structures for both methods (clustering groups) demonstrated that the delineated clusters matched with contrasting environmental conditions which could be explained by the existence of various benthic communities. Further consideration of these different communities and their environmental context will be important in determining their trajectories under global changes and may help in the interpretation of community modifications with changing environmental conditions.

Turbid Coral Reefs: Past, Present and Future—A Review

Increasing evidence suggests that coral reefs exposed to elevated turbidity may be more resilient to climate change impacts and serve as an important conservation hotspot. However, logistical difficulties in studying turbid environments have led to poor representation of these reef types within the scientific literature, with studies using different methods and definitions to characterize turbid reefs. Here we review the geological origins and growth histories of turbid reefs from the Holocene (past), their current ecological and environmental states (present), and their potential responses and resilience to increasing local and global pressures (future). We classify turbid reefs using new descriptors based on their turbidity regime (persistent, fluctuating, transitional) and sources of sediment input (natural versus anthropogenic). Further, by comparing the composition, function and resilience of two of the most studied turbid reefs, Paluma Shoals Reef Complex, Australia (natural turbidity) and Singapore reefs (anthropogenic turbidity), we found them to be two distinct types of turbid reefs with different conservation status. As the geographic range of turbid reefs is expected to increase due to local and global stressors, improving our understanding of their responses to environmental change will be central to global coral reef conservation efforts.

Coral community composition and carbonate production in an urbanized seascape

Coastal urbanization causes environmental modifications that directly and indirectly influence the distribution and functioning of coral reefs. However, the capacity of urban infrastructure to support corals and vertically accrete is less understood. Here, we investigated if coral communities on reefs and seawalls in Singapore are distinct, and examined the environmental variables influencing coral carbonate production. Surveys at 22 sites yielded 134 coral species, with richness significantly higher on reefs. Coral cover and Shannon index did not differ between habitat types. Community composition was distinct between habitat types, with seawalls supporting a higher proportion of massive and thick-plating species. 'Distance from mainland' was the single most important variable influencing normalized carbonate production rates (a function of species-specific linear extension rate and skeletal bulk density and site coral cover), which were higher further from the mainland where human activity and development pressures were greater. Our results indicate that environmental filtering strongly shapes coral communities and may influence ecosystem functioning in Singapore's urbanized reef system. The findings will guide the management of reefs on increasingly urbanized coastlines.

Decadal (2006-2018) dynamics of Southwestern Atlantic's largest turbid zone reefs

Tropical reefs are declining rapidly due to climate changes and local stressors such as water quality deterioration and overfishing. The so-called marginal reefs sustain significant coral cover and growth but are dominated by fewer species adapted to suboptimal conditions to most coral species. However, the dynamics of marginal systems may diverge from that of the archetypical oligotrophic tropical reefs, and it is unclear whether they are more or less susceptible to anthropogenic stress. Here, we present the largest (100 fixed quadrats at five reefs) and longest time series (13 years) of benthic cover data for Southwestern Atlantic turbid zone reefs, covering sites under contrasting anthropogenic and oceanographic forcing. Specifically, we addressed how benthic cover changed among habitats and sites, and possible dominance-shift trends. We found less temporal variation in offshore pinnacles' tops than on nearshore ones and, conversely, higher temporal fluctuation on offshore pinnacles' walls than on nearshore ones. In general, the Abrolhos reefs sustained a stable coral cover and we did not record regional-level dominance shifts favoring other organisms. However, coral decline was evidenced in one reef near a dredging disposal site. Relative abundances of longer-lived reef builders showed a high level of synchrony, which indicates that their dynamics fluctuate under similar drivers. Therefore, changes on those drivers could threaten the stability of these reefs. With the intensification of thermal anomalies and land-based stressors, it is unclear whether the Abrolhos reefs will keep providing key ecosystem services. It is paramount to restrain local stressors that contributed to coral reef deterioration in the last decades, once reversal and restoration tend to become increasingly difficult as coral reefs degrade further and climate changes escalate.

Population dynamics and growth rates of free-living mushroom corals (Scleractinia: Fungiidae) in the sediment-stressed reefs of Singapore

The reefs of Singapore provide an excellent opportunity to study the population dynamics and growth rates of free-living mushroom corals (Fungiidae) under sediment-stressed conditions. Transect surveys at four study sites revealed a total of 11 free-living mushroom coral species-the same 11 species as those found by local studies since the 1980s. The abundance of the four most common species ranged from 1.0 to 68.3 Ind. per 100m², while their population size-structure showed a common pattern of a higher proportion of small-sized corals than large-sized ones (i.e. positively skewed size-structure), although very few individuals of the smallest-size classes were recorded for any of the four species. A more positively skewed size-structure for each of the four most common species was observed at the reef slope (5-6m depth) than at the reef crest (2-3m depth), possibly due to a slower growth rate caused by light reduction with depth. All the mushroom corals studied exhibited a decline in growth rate with increasing size and weight, indicating determinate growth. Growth rate of each of the four most common species was similar among the study sites, despite variation in environmental conditions. Our results demonstrate species richness stability over the past three decades, suggesting that these free-living mushroom coral assemblages comprise species that are well-adapted to the chronic high sedimentation characteristic of Singapore's reefs. However, if the paucity of individuals of the smallest-size classes reflects poor recruitment and/or early mortality, there may be some cause for concern. Our robust baseline data can contribute to a long-term monitoring strategy for determination of changes in mushroom coral population dynamics.

Host age is not a consistent predictor of microbial diversity in the coral Porites lutea

Corals harbour diverse microbial communities that can change in composition as the host grows in age and size. Larger and older colonies have been shown to host a higher diversity of microbial taxa and this has been suggested to be a consequence of their more numerous, complex and varied micro-niches available. However, the effects of host age on community structure and diversity of microbial associates remain equivocal in the few studies performed to date. To test this relationship more robustly, we use established techniques to accurately determine coral host age by quantifying annual skeletal banding patterns, and utilise high-throughput sequencing to comprehensively characterise the microbiome of the common reef-building coral, Porites lutea. Our results indicate no clear link between coral age and microbial diversity or richness. Different sites display distinct age-dependent diversity patterns, with more anthropogenically impacted reefs appearing to show a winnowing of microbial diversity with host age, possibly a consequence of corals adapting to degraded environments. Less impacted sites do not show a signature of winnowing, and we observe increases in microbial richness and diversity as the host ages. Furthermore, we demonstrate that corals of a similar age from the same reef can show very different microbial richness and diversity.

Early recovery dynamics of turbid coral reefs after recurring bleaching events

The worlds' coral reefs are declining due to the combined effects of natural disturbances and anthropogenic pressures including thermal coral bleaching associated with global climate change. Nearshore corals are receiving increased anthropogenic stress from coastal development and nutrient run-off. Considering forecast increases in global temperatures, greater understanding of drivers of recovery on nearshore coral reefs following widespread bleaching events is required to inform management of local stressors. The west Pilbara coral reefs, with cross-shelf turbidity gradients coupled with a large nearby dredging program and recent history of repeated coral bleaching due to heat stress, represent an opportune location to study recovery from multiple disturbances. Mean coral cover at west Pilbara reefs was monitored from 2009 to 2018 and declined from 45% in 2009 to 5% in 2014 following three heat waves. Recruitment and juvenile abundance of corals were monitored from 2014 to 2018 and were combined with biological and physical data to identify which variables enhanced or hindered early-stage coral recovery of all hard corals and separately for the acroporids, the genera principally responsible for recovery in the short-term (<7 years). From 2014 to 2018, coral cover increased from 5 to 10% but recovery varied widely among sites (0-13%). Hard coral cover typically recovered most at shallower sites that had higher abundance of herbivorous fish, less macroalgae, and lower turbidity. Similarly, acroporid corals recovered most at sites with lower turbidity and macroalgal cover. Juvenile acroporid densities were a good indicator of recovery at least two years after they were recorded. However, recruitment to settlement tiles was not a good predictor of total coral or acroporid recovery. This study shows that coral recovery can be slower in areas of high turbidity and the rate may be reduced by local pressures, such as dredging. Management should focus on improving or maintaining local water quality to increase the likelihood of coral recovery under climate stress. Further, in turbid environments, juvenile coral density predicts early coral recovery better than recruits on tiles and may be a more cost-effective technique for monitoring recovery potential.

Responses of urban reef corals during the 2016 mass bleaching event

Predicting the bleaching responses of corals is crucial in light of frequent heat stress events to manage further losses of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, especially for reefs impacted by urbanisation. We examined if the coral cover and community at various Singapore sites changed during the 2016 global coral bleaching event. Bleaching prevalence varied widely among sites in June 2016, and was best explained by site and coral species. While some sites were minimally impacted, others registered significant decreases in coral cover and community changes persisting till March 2017, when normal colouration was mostly regained by corals. Bleaching susceptibility was associated with larger corallites in hermaphrodites and smaller corallites in gonochores (probably due to the cost of maintaining dual sexual functions in hermaphrodites), and with increasing proximity between polyps (likely because thermal damage would be less contained among polyps with greater physiological integration). However, bleaching resilience-the capacity to regain baseline pigmentation-was poorly explained by the traits studied. Our findings suggest that the interplay between local conditions and species composition strongly affects bleaching outcomes on urbanised reefs, and underscore the utility of coral traits for predicting bleaching responses to help in formulating appropriate management strategies.

Physiological Characteristics and Environment Adaptability of Reef-Building Corals at the Wuzhizhou Island of South China Sea

The health of coral reef has declined significantly around the world due to the impact of human activities and natural environment changes, and corals have to develop effective resistance mechanisms to survive. In this study, we examined the physiological characteristics and Symbiodiniaceae types of four dominant scleractinian corals in the reefs at the Wuzhizhou Island (WZZ) in South China Sea. The water environmental conditions are complex on the north side of WZZ due to regional geography and tourism development, and all corals had their unique physiological conditions and Symbiodiniaceae types. For all corals of this study, the rETRm ax and protein content were significantly lower and the SOD enzyme activity was significantly higher in the north than in the south. Interestingly, ITS2 genotyping showed that Galaxea fascicularis contained dominant Symbiodiniaceae either genotype C21 or D1a depending on the regional environmental stress, and had stronger heterotrophy than the other three coral species. In addition, the light use efficiency of the dominant Symbiodiniaceae type C1 for Pocillopora verrucosa was significantly lower in the north and the half saturating irradiance was stable. Besides, Montipora truncata and P. verrucosa increased their density of the symbiotic zooxanthella C1 in the north to offset the decline of photosynthetic efficiency and thus supply energy. For Porites lutea and G. fascicularis, their half saturating irradiance declined sharply in the north, where P. lutea resorted to heterotrophic feeding to balance the energy budget when the number of zooxanthellas fell short and G. fascicularis reduced its energy reserve significantly when the energy source was limited. We thus demonstrated the differences in the physiological responses and energy metabolism strategies between the zooxanthella and the host coral of the four reef-building coral species under the stress of complex water environment on the north side of WZZ. The corals were found to cope with natural and anthropogenic stressors by adjusting the nutrient input sources and the energy structure metabolism of coral hosts or adapting to more sustainable relationship with Symbiodiniaceae clades. The corals exhibited their capacity against long-term disturbances by developing their own successful resistance mechanisms at symbiotic relationship and energy metabolism level.

Effects of macroalgae on coral fecundity in a degraded coral reef system

Global declines in live coral cover and the proliferation of macroalgae on coral reefs is leading to increased coral-macroalgal interactions that impact reef recovery. However, the effects of macroalgae on coral sexual reproduction-a fundamental life-history process for maintaining population abundances-have rarely been quantified. Here, we examined the direct effects of macroalgae contact on the fecundity (eggs mesentery^-1) of two coral species, Echinopora lamellosa and Merulina ampliata, across three degraded reefs in Singapore. Increasing macroalgae contact from 5% to 25% significantly reduced fecundity in colonies of both species by 67-82%, and also reduced M. ampliata egg sizes by 11.4%. These results suggest the diversion of energy from reproduction towards other processes such as repair and defence, and also reveal potential differential energy allocation strategies among coral taxa. While corals on Singapore's impacted reefs continue to produce eggs, increasing macroalgae that suppresses coral fecundity may constrain future reef recovery.

Anthropogenic impact is negatively related to coral health in Sicily (Mediterranean Sea)

Shallow-water marine organisms are among the first to suffer from combined effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers. The orange coral Astroides calycularis is a shallow-water bioconstructor species endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. Although raising conservation interest, also given its special position within the Dendrophylliidae, information about the threats to its health is scant. We investigated the health status of A. calycularis at five locations in northwestern Sicily along a gradient of cumulative human impact and the most probable origin of the threats to this species, including anthropogenic land-based and sea-based threats. Cumulative human impact appeared inversely related to the performance of A. calycularis at population, colony, and polyp levels. Sea-based human impacts appeared among the most likely causes of the variation observed. The reduction in polyp length can limit the reproductive performance of A. calycularis, while the decrease of percent cover and colony area is expected to impair its peculiar feeding behaviour by limiting the exploitable dimensional range of prey and, ultimately, reef functioning. This endangered habitat-forming species appeared susceptible to anthropogenic pressures, suggesting the need to re-assess its vulnerability status. Creating microprotected areas with specific restrictions to sea-based human impacts could be the best practice preserve these bioconstructions.

Light limitation selects for depth generalists in urbanised reef coral communities

Depth range is an important species trait for coral reef organisms, yet it remains to be quantified and analysed adequately among tropical coral species. Filling this knowledge gap is crucial as the depth limits of corals are related to important environmental factors such as light and temperature. Furthermore, the health and survivorship of corals may be threatened due to warming-induced sea-level rise, particularly for colonies living at the deeper limits of species depth ranges. Here we collected benthic and environmental data along the reef profile to characterise the depth ranges of coral species, and analysed species diversity and community structure in relation to possible depth-related biophysical parameters on the sediment-stressed reefs of Singapore. The results reveal clear environmental covariations with depth, expectedly with light availability showing the most marked decline as depth increases. Live coral cover, species richness and diversity are associated positively and significantly with light, which also structures coral communities along the reef profile more strongly than temperature or sediment levels. Relatedly, we detect species-specific depth distributions with two main strategies observed among coral species: shallow specialists and depth generalists. We suggest that corals in Singapore are unlikely to be impacted by light limitation specifically as sea level rises due to the wider depth range of the deeper species. Our data will inform conservation efforts especially in the selection of sites and depths for coral transplantation.

Implications of high rates of sexual recruitment in driving rapid reef recovery in Mo'orea, French Polynesia

Coral abundance continues to decline on tropical reefs around the world, and this trend suggests that coral reefs may not persist beyond the current century. In contrast, this study describes the near-complete mortality of corals on the outer reef (10 m and 17 m depth) of the north shore of Mo’orea, French Polynesia, from 2005 to 2010, followed by unprecedented recovery from 2011 to 2017. Intense corallivory and a cyclone drove coral cover from 33–48% to <3% by 2010, but over the following seven years, recovery occurred through rapid population growth (up to 12% cover y⁻¹) to 25–74% cover by 2017. The thirteen-year, U-shape trajectory of coral cover over time created by the loss and replacement of millions of corals through sexual reproduction underscores the potential for beneficial genetic responses to environmental conditions for at least one genus, Pocillopora. The high ecological resilience of this coral community appears to have been enhanced by variation among genera in the susceptibility to declining cover, and the capacity for population growth (i.e., response diversity). These results suggest that the outer coral communities of Mo’orea may be poised for genetic changes that could affect their capacity to persistence.

Urban coral reefs: Degradation and resilience of hard coral assemblages in coastal cities of East and Southeast Asia

Given predicted increases in urbanization in tropical and subtropical regions, understanding the processes shaping urban coral reefs may be essential for anticipating future conservation challenges. We used a case study approach to identify unifying patterns of urban coral reefs and clarify the effects of urbanization on hard coral assemblages. Data were compiled from 11 cities throughout East and Southeast Asia, with particular focus on Singapore, Jakarta, Hong Kong, and Naha (Okinawa). Our review highlights several key characteristics of urban coral reefs, including "reef compression" (a decline in bathymetric range with increasing turbidity and decreasing water clarity over time and relative to shore), dominance by domed coral growth forms and low reef complexity, variable city-specific inshore-offshore gradients, early declines in coral cover with recent fluctuating periods of acute impacts and rapid recovery, and colonization of urban infrastructure by hard corals. We present hypotheses for urban reef community dynamics and discuss potential of ecological engineering for corals in urban areas.

Spatiotemporal variations in macrofaunal assemblages linked to site-specific environmental factors in two contrasting nearshore habitats

A long-term study on a benthic community was conducted in two different localities, one in semi-enclosed bay of Jinhae (n = 10, south coast) and the other in open sea area of Samcheok (n = 10, east coast), Korea, respectively. We aimed to identify the spatiotemporal patterns of macrozoobenthos and the environmental variables influencing such patterns in the two contrasting habitats. The macrozoobenthos assemblages on the soft bottom of the subtidal zone were analyzed over the 3 years, encompassing 12 consecutive seasons, in 2013-2016. Among the 22 environmental variables measured, organic matter, dissolved oxygen, mean grain size, and water depth showed clear differences between two study areas. Accordingly, several ecological indices (such as the number of species, abundance, dominant species, and diversity index (H')) generally reflected site-specific benthic conditions. The macrofaunal community in the Jinhae showed typical seasonal fluctuations, whereas the Samcheok community showed no significant change over time and space. Region- or site-dependent temporal variabilities of macrofaunal assemblages are depicted through cluster analysis (CA), indicating distinct temporal changes in the composition of dominant species. In particular, the abundance of some dominant species noticeably declined in certain seasons when several opportunistic species peaked. Such faunal succession might be explained by significant changes to specific environmental factors, such as bottom dissolved oxygen, grain size, and water depth. Principle component analysis further identified major environmental factors, i.e., sediment properties in Jinhae and water quality parameters in Samcheok community, respectively. In addition, discriminant analysis confirmed the presence of several site-specific parameters for the faunal assemblage groups identified through CA. Finally, indicator value analysis identified species that were representative across stations and regions in accordance with their habitat preference and/or species tolerance. Overall, the two contrasting nearshore habitats showed distinct community differences, in time and space, that were influenced by site-dependent environmental conditions.

Long-term effects of competition and environmental drivers on the growth of the endangered coral Mussismilia braziliensis (Verril, 1867)

Most coral reefs have recently experienced acute changes in benthic community structure, generally involving dominance shifts from slow-growing hard corals to fast-growing benthic invertebrates and fleshy photosynthesizers. Besides overfishing, increased nutrification and sedimentation are important drivers of this process, which is well documented at landscape scales in the Caribbean and in the Indo-Pacific. However, small-scale processes that occur at the level of individual organisms remain poorly explored. In addition, the generality of coral reef decline models still needs to be verified on the vast realm of turbid-zone reefs. Here, we documented the outcome of interactions between an endangered Brazilian-endemic coral (Mussismilia braziliensis) and its most abundant contacting organisms (turf, cyanobacteria, corals, crustose coralline algae and foliose macroalgae). Our study was based on a long (2006-2016) series of high resolution data (fixed photoquadrats) acquired along a cross-shelf gradient that includes coastal unprotected reefs and offshore protected sites. The study region (Abrolhos Bank) comprises the largest and richest coralline complex in the South Atlantic, and a foremost example of a turbid-zone reef system with low diversity and expressive coral cover. Coral growth was significantly different between reefs. Coral-algae contacts predominated inshore, while cyanobacteria and turf contacts dominated offshore. An overall trend in positive coral growth was detected from 2009 onward in the inshore reef, whereas retraction in live coral tissue was observed offshore during this period. Turbidity (+) and cyanobacteria (-) were the best predictors of coral growth. Complimentary incubation experiments, in which treatments of Symbiodinium spp. from M. braziliensis colonies were subjected to cyanobacterial exudates, showed a negative effect of the exudate on the symbionts, demonstrating that cyanobacteria play an important role in coral tissue necrosis. Negative effects of cyanobacteria on living coral tissue may remain undetected from percent cover estimates gathered at larger spatial scales, as these ephemeral organisms tend to be rapidly replaced by longer-living macroalgae, or complex turf-like consortia. The cross-shelf trend of decreasing turbidity and macroalgae abundance suggests either a direct positive effect of turbidity on coral growth, or an indirect effect related to the higher inshore cover of foliose macroalgae, constraining cyanobacterial abundance. It is unclear whether the higher inshore macroalgal abundance (10-20% of reef cover) is a stable phase related to a long-standing high turbidity background, or a contemporary response to anthropogenic stress. Our results challenge the idea that high macroalgal cover is always associated with compromised coral health, as the baselines for turbid zone reefs may derive sharply from those of coral-dominated reefs that dwell under oligotrophic conditions.

Estimating the footprint of pollution on coral reefs with models of species turnover

Ecological communities typically change along gradients of human impact, although it is difficult to estimate the footprint of impacts for diffuse threats such as pollution. We developed a joint model (i.e., one that includes multiple species and their interactions with each other and environmental covariates) of benthic habitats on lagoonal coral reefs and used it to infer change in benthic composition along a gradient of distance from logging operations. The model estimated both changes in abundances of benthic groups and their compositional turnover, a type of beta diversity. We used the model to predict the footprint of turbidity impacts from past and recent logging. Benthic communities far from logging were dominated by branching corals, whereas communities close to logging had higher cover of dead coral, massive corals, and soft sediment. Recent impacts were predicted to be small relative to the extensive impacts of past logging because recent logging has occurred far from lagoonal reefs. Our model can be used more generally to estimate the footprint of human impacts on ecosystems and evaluate the benefits of conservation actions for ecosystems.

Macroalgal browsing on a heavily degraded, urbanized equatorial reef system

The removal of macroalgal biomass is critical to the health of coral reef ecosystems. Previous studies on relatively intact reefs with diverse and abundant fish communities have quantified rapid removal of macroalgae by herbivorous fishes, yet how these findings relate to degraded reef systems where fish diversity and abundance are markedly lower and algal biomass substantially higher, is unclear. We surveyed roving herbivorous fish communities and quantified their capacity to remove the dominant macroalga Sargassum ilicifolium on seven reefs in Singapore; a heavily degraded urbanized reef system. The diversity and abundance of herbivorous fishes was extremely low, with eight species and a mean abundance ~1.1 individuals 60 m^-2 recorded across reefs. Consumption of S. ilicifolium varied with distance from Singapore's main port with consumption being 3- to 17-fold higher on reefs furthest from the port (Pulau Satumu: 4.18 g h^-1; Kusu Island: 2.38 g h^-1) than reefs closer to the port (0.35-0.78 g h^-1). Video observations revealed a single species, Siganus virgatus, was almost solely responsible for removing S. ilicifolium biomass, accounting for 83% of the mass-standardized bites. Despite low herbivore diversity and intense urbanization, macroalgal removal by fishes on some Singaporean reefs was directly comparable to rates reported for other inshore Indo-Pacific reefs.

Mortality, recovery, and community shifts of scleractinian corals in Puerto Rico one decade after the 2005 regional bleaching event

This work analyzes the mortality, recovery, and shifts in the composition of scleractinian corals from Puerto Rico one decade after the 2005 regional coral bleaching event. Temporal and spatial patterns of coral community structure were examined using a stratified, non-random sampling approach based on five permanent transects per reef at 16 reef stations. A negative correlation between percent coral cover loss and light attenuation coefficient (Kd₄₉₀) was observed, suggesting that light attenuation, as influenced by water turbidity and depth, played a major role in coral protection during the bleaching event (“sunblock effect”). Responses of coral assemblages varied after the bleaching event, including shifts of cover from massive corals (Orbicella spp.) to opportunistic (Porites astreoides) and branching corals (Madracis auretenra, P. porites) and/or turf algae; partial recovery of reef substrate cover by O. annularis complex; and no measurable changes in coral assemblages before and after the event.

Tracing the influence of land-use change on water quality and coral reefs using a Bayesian model

Coastal ecosystems can be degraded by poor water quality. Tracing the causes of poor water quality back to land-use change is necessary to target catchment management for coastal zone management. However, existing models for tracing the sources of pollution require extensive data-sets which are not available for many of the world’s coral reef regions that may have severe water quality issues. Here we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that uses freely available satellite data to infer the connection between land-uses in catchments and water clarity in coastal oceans. We apply the model to estimate the influence of land-use change on water clarity in Fiji. We tested the model’s predictions against underwater surveys, finding that predictions of poor water quality are consistent with observations of high siltation and low coverage of sediment-sensitive coral genera. The model thus provides a means to link land-use change to declines in coastal water quality.