Colloquium paper: extinction and the spatial dynamics of biodiversity

Lokiceratops rangiformis gen. et sp. nov. (Ceratopsidae: Centrosaurinae) from the Campanian Judith River Formation of Montana reveals rapid regional radiations and extreme endemism within centrosaurine dinosaurs

The Late Cretaceous of western North America supported diverse dinosaur assemblages, though understanding patterns of dinosaur diversity, evolution, and extinction has been historically limited by unequal geographic and temporal sampling. In particular, the existence and extent of faunal endemism along the eastern coastal plain of Laramidia continues to generate debate, and finer scale regional patterns remain elusive. Here, we report a new centrosaurine ceratopsid, Lokiceratops rangiformis, from the lower portion of the McClelland Ferry Member of the Judith River Formation in the Kennedy Coulee region along the Canada-USA border. Dinosaurs from the same small geographic region, and from nearby, stratigraphically equivalent horizons of the lower Oldman Formation in Canada, reveal unprecedented ceratopsid richness, with four sympatric centrosaurine taxa and one chasmosaurine taxon. Phylogenetic results show that Lokiceratops, together with Albertaceratops and Medusaceratops, was part of a clade restricted to a small portion of northern Laramidia approximately 78 million years ago. This group, Albertaceratopsini, was one of multiple centrosaurine clades to undergo geographically restricted radiations, with Nasutuceratopsini restricted to the south and Centrosaurini and Pachyrostra restricted to the north. High regional endemism in centrosaurs is associated with, and may have been driven by, high speciation rates and diversity, with competition between dinosaurs limiting their geographic range. High speciation rates may in turn have been driven in part by sexual selection or latitudinally uneven climatic and floral gradients. The high endemism seen in centrosaurines and other dinosaurs implies that dinosaur diversity is underestimated and contrasts with the large geographic ranges seen in most extant mammalian megafauna.

Once upon a fly: The biogeographical odyssey of Labrundinia (Chironomidae, Tanypodinae), an aquatic non-biting midge towards diversification

Labrundinia is a highly recognizable lineage in the Pentaneurini tribe (Diptera, Chironomidae). The distinct predatory free-swimming larvae of this genus are typically present in unpolluted aquatic environments, such as small streams, ponds, lakes, and bays. They can be found on the bottom mud, clinging to rocks and wood, and dwelling among aquatic vegetation. Labrundinia has been extensively studied in ecological research and comprises 39 species, all but one of which has been described from regions outside the Palearctic. Earlier phylogenetic studies have suggested that the initial diversification of the genus likely occurred in the Neotropical Region, with its current presence in the Nearctic Region and southern South America being the result of subsequent dispersal events. Through the integration of molecular and morphological data in a calibrated phylogeny, we reveal a complex and nuanced evolutionary history for Labrundinia, providing insights into its biogeographical and diversification patterns. In this comprehensive study, we analyze a dataset containing 46 Labrundinia species, totaling 10,662 characters, consisting of 10,616 nucleotide sites and 46 morphological characters. The molecular data was generated mainly by anchored enrichment hybrid methods. Using this comprehensive dataset, we inferred the phylogeny of the group based on a total evidence matrix. Subsequently, we employed the generated tree for time calibration and further analysis of biogeography and diversification patterns. Our findings reveal multiple dispersal events out of the Neotropics, where the group originated in the late Cretaceous approximately 72 million years ago (69-78 Ma). We further reveal that the genus experienced an early burst of diversification rates during the Paleocene, which gradually decelerated towards the present-day. We also find that the Neotropics have played a pivotal role in the evolution of Labrundinia by serving as both a cradle and a museum. By "cradle," we mean that the region has been a hotspot for the origin and diversification of new Labrundinia lineages, while "museum" refers to the region's ability to preserve ancestral lineages over extended periods. In summary, our findings indicate that the Neotropics have been a key source of genetic diversity for Labrundinia, resulting in the development of distinctive adaptations and characteristics within the genus. This evidence highlights the crucial role that these regions have played in shaping the evolutionary trajectory of Labrundinia.

The relationship between geographic range size and rates of species diversification

Range size is a universal characteristic of every biological species, and is often assumed to affect diversification rate. There are strong theoretical arguments that large-ranged species should have higher rates of diversification. On the other hand, the observation that small-ranged species are often phylogenetically clustered might indicate high diversification of small-ranged species. This discrepancy between theory and the data may be caused by the fact that typical methods of data analysis do not account for range size changes during speciation. Here we use a cladogenetic state-dependent diversification model applied to mammals to show that range size changes during speciation are ubiquitous and small-ranged species indeed diversify generally slower, as theoretically expected. However, both range size and diversification are strongly influenced by idiosyncratic and spatially localized events, such as colonization of an archipelago or a mountain system, which often override the general pattern of range size evolution.

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900-1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.

Cambrian radiation speciation events driven by sea level and redoxcline changes on the Siberian Craton

The evolutionary processes of speciation during the Cambrian radiation and their potential extrinsic drivers, such as episodic oceanic oxygenation events, remain unconfirmed. High-resolution temporal and spatial distribution of reef-associated archaeocyath sponge species on the Siberian Craton during the early Cambrian [ca. 528 to 510 million years ago] shows that speciation was driven by increased endemism particularly ca. 521 million years (59.7% endemic species) and 514.5 million years (65.25% endemic species) ago. These mark rapid speciation events after dispersal of ancestors from the Aldan-Lena center of origin to other regions. These speciation events coincided with major sea-level lowstands, which we hypothesize were intervals when relative deepening of the shallow redoxcline permitted extensive oxygenation of shallow waters over the entire craton. This provided oxic corridors for dispersal and allowed the formation of new founder communities. Thus, shallow marine oxygen expansion driven by sea-level oscillations provides an evolutionary driver for sucessive speciation events during the Cambrian radiation.

Shifts in food webs and niche stability shaped survivorship and extinction at the end-Cretaceous

It has long been debated why groups such as non-avian dinosaurs became extinct whereas mammals and other lineages survived the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction 66 million years ago. We used Markov networks, ecological niche partitioning, and Earth System models to reconstruct North American food webs and simulate ecospace occupancy before and after the extinction event. We find a shift in latest Cretaceous dinosaur faunas, as medium-sized species counterbalanced a loss of megaherbivores, but dinosaur niches were otherwise stable and static, potentially contributing to their demise. Smaller vertebrates, including mammals, followed a consistent trajectory of increasing trophic impact and relaxation of niche limits beginning in the latest Cretaceous and continuing after the mass extinction. Mammals did not simply proliferate after the extinction event; rather, their earlier ecological diversification might have helped them survive.

Geographic range size and speciation in honeyeaters

Background

Darwin and others proposed that a species’ geographic range size positively influences speciation likelihood, with the relationship potentially dependent on the mode of speciation and other contributing factors, including geographic setting and species traits. Several alternative proposals for the influence of range size on speciation rate have also been made (e.g. negative or a unimodal relationship with speciation). To examine Darwin’s proposal, we use a range of phylogenetic comparative methods, focusing on a large Australasian bird clade, the honeyeaters (Aves: Meliphagidae).

Results

We consider the influence of range size, shape, and position (latitudinal and longitudinal midpoints, island or continental species), and consider two traits known to influence range size: dispersal ability and body size. Applying several analytical approaches, including phylogenetic Bayesian path analysis, spatiophylogenetic models, and state-dependent speciation and extinction models, we find support for both the positive relationship between range size and speciation rate and the influence of mode of speciation.

Conclusions

Honeyeater speciation rate differs considerably between islands and the continental setting across the clade’s distribution, with range size contributing positively in the continental setting, while dispersal ability influences speciation regardless of setting. These outcomes support Darwin’s original proposal for a positive relationship between range size and speciation likelihood, while extending the evidence for the contribution of dispersal ability to speciation.

Integrating geographic ranges across temporal scales

Geographic ranges are a fundamental unit of biogeography and macroecology. Increasingly, paleontologists and ecologists alike are reconstructing geographic ranges of species from fossils, in order to understand the long-term processes governing biogeographic and macroevolutionary patterns. As these reconstructions have become increasingly common, uncertainty has arisen over the equivalency of paleo-ranges and modern ranges. Here, we argue geographic ranges are time-averaged at all temporal scales, and reflect the biotic and abiotic processes operating across the equivalent range of time and space scales. This conceptual framework integrates the study of geographic ranges reconstructed using modern and ancient data, and highlights the potential for ranges to illuminate processes responsible for diversity patterns over intervals spanning days to tens of millions of years of Earth history.

Phase transitions in biology: from bird flocks to population dynamics

Phase transitions are an important and extensively studied concept in physics. The insights derived from understanding phase transitions in physics have recently and successfully been applied to a number of different phenomena in biological systems. Here, we provide a brief review of phase transitions and their role in explaining biological processes ranging from collective behaviour in animal flocks to neuronal firing. We also highlight a new and exciting area where phase transition theory is particularly applicable: population collapse and extinction. We discuss how phase transition theory can give insight into a range of extinction events such as population decline due to climate change or microbial responses to stressors such as antibiotic treatment.

Biodiversity across space and time in the fossil record

The fossil record is the primary source of information on how biodiversity has varied in deep time, providing unique insight on the long-term dynamics of diversification and their drivers. However, interpretations of fossil record diversity patterns have been much debated, with a traditional focus on global diversity through time. Problems arise because the fossil record is spatially and temporally patchy, so 'global' diversity estimates actually represent the summed diversity across a set of geographically and environmentally distinct regions that vary substantially in number and identity through time. Furthermore, a focus on global diversity lumps the signal of ecological drivers at local and regional scales with the signal of global-scale processes, including variation in the distribution of environments and in provincialism (the extent of subdivision into distinct biogeographic regions). These signals cannot be untangled by studying global diversity measures alone. These conceptual and empirical concerns necessitate a shift away from the study of 'biodiversity through time' and towards the study of 'biodiversity across time and space'. Spatially explicit investigations, including analyses of local- and regional-scale datasets, are central to achieving this and allow analysis of geographic scale, location and the environmental parameters directly experienced by organisms. So far, research in this area has revealed the stability of species richness variation among environments through time, and the potential climatic and Earth-system drivers of changing biodiversity. Ultimately, this research program promises to address key questions regarding the assembly of biodiversity, and the contributions of local-, regional- and global-scale processes to the diversification of life on Earth.

Deep-time climate legacies affect origination rates of marine genera

Biodiversity dynamics are shaped by a complex interplay between current conditions and historic legacy. The interaction of short- and long-term climate change may mask the true relationship of evolutionary responses to climate change if not specifically accounted for. These paleoclimate interactions have been demonstrated for extinction risk and biodiversity change, but their importance for origination dynamics remains untested. Here, we show that origination probability in marine fossil genera is strongly affected by paleoclimate interactions. Overall, origination probability increases by 27.8% [95% CI (27.4%, 28.3%)] when a short-term cooling adds to a long-term cooling trend. This large effect is consistent through time and all studied groups. The mechanisms of the detected effect might be manifold but are likely connected to increased allopatric speciation with eustatic sea level drop caused by sustained global cooling. We tested this potential mechanism through which paleoclimate interactions can act on origination rates by additionally examining a proxy for habitat fragmentation. This proxy, continental fragmentation, has a similar effect on origination rates as paleoclimate interactions, supporting the importance of allopatric speciation through habitat fragmentation in the deep-time fossil record. The identified complex nature of paleoclimate interactions might explain contradictory conclusions on the relationship between temperature and origination in the previous literature. Our results highlight the need to account for complex interactions in evolutionary studies both between and among biotic and abiotic factors.

The preservation potential of terrestrial biogeographic patterns

Extinction events in the geological past are similar to the present-day biodiversity crisis in that they have a pronounced biogeography, producing dramatic changes in the spatial distributions of species. Reconstructing palaeobiogeographic patterns from fossils therefore allows us to examine the long-term processes governing the formation of regional biotas, and potentially helps build spatially explicit models for future biodiversity loss. However, the extent to which biogeographic patterns can be preserved in the fossil record is not well understood. Here, we perform a suite of simulations based on the present-day distribution of North American mammals, aimed at quantifying the preservation potential of beta diversity and spatial richness patterns over extinction events of varying intensities, and after applying a stepped series of taphonomic filters. We show that taphonomic biases related to body size are the biggest barrier to reconstructing biogeographic patterns over extinction events, but that these may be compensated for by both the small mammal record preserved in bird castings, as well as range expansion in surviving species. Overall, our results suggest that the preservation potential of biogeographic patterns is surprisingly high, and thus that the fossil record represents an invaluable dataset recording the changing spatial distribution of biota over key intervals in Earth History.

Extinction and the temporal distribution of macroevolutionary bursts

Phenotypic evolution through deep time is slower than expected from microevolutionary rates. This is the paradox of stasis. Previous models suggest stasis occurs because populations track adaptive peaks that remain relatively stable on million‐year intervals, raising the equally perplexing question of why these large changes are so rare. Here, we consider the possibility that peaks can move more rapidly than populations can adapt, resulting in extinction. We model peak movement with explicit population dynamics, parameterized with published microevolutionary estimates. Allowing extinction greatly increases the parameter space of peak movements that yield the appearance of stasis observed in real data through deep time. Extreme peak displacements, regardless of their frequency, will rarely result in an equivalent degree of trait evolution because of extinction. Thus, larger peak displacements will rarely be inferred using trait data from extant species or observed in fossil records. Our work highlights population ecology as an important contributor to macroevolutionary dynamics, presenting an alternative perspective on the paradox of stasis, where apparent constraint on phenotypic evolution in deep time reflects our restricted view of the subset of earth's lineages that were fortunate enough to reside on relatively stable peaks.

High Preservation Potential of Paleogeographic Range Size Distributions in Deep Time

AbstractReconstructing geographic range sizes from fossil data is a crucial tool in paleoecology, elucidating macroecological and macroevolutionary processes. Studies examining links between range size and extinction risk may also offer a predictive tool for identifying species most vulnerable in the "sixth mass extinction." However, the extent to which paleogeographic ranges can be recorded reliably in the fossil record is unknown. We perform simulation-based extinction experiments to examine (1) the fidelity of paleogeographic range size preservation in deep time, (2) the relative performance of different methods for reconstructing range size, and (3) the reliability of detecting patterns of extinction "selectivity" on range size. Our results suggest both that relative paleogeographic range size can be consistently reconstructed and that selectivity patterns on range size can be preserved under many extinction intensities, even when sedimentary rocks are scarce. By identifying patterns of selectivity across Earth's history, paleontologists can thus augment neontological work that aims to predict and prevent extinctions of living species. Last, we find that introducing "false extinctions" in the fossil record can produce spurious range-selectivity signals. Errors in the temporal ranges of species may pose a larger barrier to reconstructing range size-extinction risk signals than the spatial distribution of fossiliferous sediments.

Recent accelerated diversification in rosids occurred outside the tropics

Conflicting relationships have been found between diversification rate and temperature across disparate clades of life. Here, we use a supermatrix comprising nearly 20,000 species of rosids-a clade of ~25% of all angiosperm species-to understand global patterns of diversification and its climatic association. Our approach incorporates historical global temperature, assessment of species' temperature niche, and two broad-scale characterizations of tropical versus non-tropical niche occupancy. We find the diversification rates of most subclades dramatically increased over the last 15 million years (Myr) during cooling associated with global expansion of temperate habitats. Climatic niche is negatively associated with diversification rates, with tropical rosids forming older communities and experiencing speciation rates ~2-fold below rosids in cooler climates. Our results suggest long-term cooling had a disproportionate effect on non-tropical diversification rates, leading to dynamic young communities outside of the tropics, while relative stability in tropical climes led to older, slower-evolving but still species-rich communities.

The latitudinal diversity gradient of tetrapods across the Permo-Triassic mass extinction and recovery interval

The decline in species richness from the equator to the poles is referred to as the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG). Higher equatorial diversity has been recognized for over 200 years, but the consistency of this pattern in deep time remains uncertain. Examination of spatial biodiversity patterns in the past across different global climate regimes and continental configurations can reveal how LDGs have varied over Earth history and potentially differentiate between suggested causal mechanisms. The Late Permian-Middle Triassic represents an ideal time interval for study, because it is characterized by large-scale volcanic episodes, extreme greenhouse temperatures and the most severe mass extinction event in Earth history. We examined terrestrial and marine tetrapod spatial biodiversity patterns using a database of global tetrapod occurrences. Terrestrial tetrapods exhibit a bimodal richness distribution throughout the Late Permian-Middle Triassic, with peaks in the northern low latitudes and southern mid-latitudes around 20-40° N and 60° S, respectively. Marine reptile fossils are known almost exclusively from the Northern Hemisphere in the Early and Middle Triassic, with highest diversity around 20° N. Reconstructed terrestrial LDGs contrast strongly with the generally unimodal gradients of today, potentially reflecting high global temperatures and prevailing Pangaean super-monsoonal climate system during the Permo-Triassic.

Decoding diversity in a coral reef fish species complex with restricted range using metagenomic sequencing of gut contents

AIM

Identification of the processes that generate and maintain species diversity within the same region can provide insight into biogeographic patterns at broader spatiotemporal scales. Hawkfishes in the genus Paracirrhites are a unique taxon to explore with respect to niche differentiation, exhibiting diagnostic differences in coloration, and an apparent center of distribution outside of the Indo-Malay-Philippine (IMP) biodiversity hotspot for coral reef fishes. Our aim is to use next-generation sequencing methods to leverage samples of a taxon at their center of maximum diversity to explore phylogenetic relationships and a possible mechanism of coexistence.

LOCATION

Flint Island, Southern Line Islands, Republic of Kiribati.

METHODS

A comprehensive review of museum records, the primary literature, and unpublished field survey records was undertaken to determine ranges for four "arc-eye" hawkfish species in the Paracirrhites species complex and a potential hybrid. Fish from four Paracirrhites species were collected from Flint Island in the Southern Line Islands, Republic of Kiribati. Hindgut contents were sequenced, and subsequent metagenomic analyses were used to assess the phylogenetic relatedness of the host fish, the microbiome community structure, and prey remains for each species.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analyses conducted with recovered mitochondrial genomes revealed clustering of P. bicolor with P. arcatus and P. xanthus with P. nisus, which were unexpected on the basis of previous morphological work in this species complex. Differences in taxonomic composition of gut microbial communities and presumed prey remains indicate likely separation of foraging niches.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our findings point toward previously unidentified relationships in this cryptic species complex at its proposed center of distribution. The three species endemic to the Polynesian province (P. nisus, P. xanthus, and P. bicolor) cluster separately from the more broadly distributed P. arcatus on the basis of relative abundance of metazoan sequences in the gut (presumed prey remains). Discordance between gut microbial communities and phylogeny of the host fish further reinforce the hypothesis of niche separation.

Evolutionary Traits that Enable Scleractinian Corals to Survive Mass Extinction Events

Scleractinian “stony” corals are major habitat engineers, whose skeletons form the framework for the highly diverse, yet increasingly threatened, coral reef ecosystem. Fossil coral skeletons also present a rich record that enables paleontological analysis of coral origins, tracing them back to the Triassic (~241 Myr). While numerous invertebrate lineages were eradicated at the last major mass extinction boundary, the Cretaceous-Tertiary/K-T (66 Myr), a number of Scleractinian corals survived. We review this history and assess traits correlated with K-T mass extinction survival. Disaster-related “survival” traits that emerged from our analysis are: (1) deep water residing (>100 m); (2) cosmopolitan distributions, (3) non-symbiotic, (4) solitary or small colonies and (5) bleaching-resistant. We then compared these traits to the traits of modern Scleractinian corals, using to IUCN Red List data, and report that corals with these same survival traits have relatively stable populations, while those lacking them are presently decreasing in abundance and diversity. This shows corals exhibiting a similar dynamic survival response as seen at the last major extinction, the K-T. While these results could be seen as promising, that some corals may survive the Anthropocene extinction, they also highlight how our relatively-fragile Primate order does not possess analogous “survival” characteristics, nor have a record of mass extinction survival as some corals are capable.

Refugia under threat: Mass bleaching of coral assemblages in high-latitude eastern Australia

Environmental anomalies that trigger adverse physiological responses and mortality are occurring with increasing frequency due to climate change. At species' range peripheries, environmental anomalies are particularly concerning because species often exist at their environmental tolerance limits and may not be able to migrate to escape unfavourable conditions. Here, we investigated the bleaching response and mortality of 14 coral genera across high-latitude eastern Australia during a global heat stress event in 2016. We evaluated whether the severity of assemblage-scale and genus-level bleaching responses was associated with cumulative heat stress and/or local environmental history, including long-term mean temperatures during the hottest month of each year (SST_LTMAX ), and annual fluctuations in water temperature (SST_VAR ) and solar irradiance (PARZ_VAR ). The most severely-bleached genera included species that were either endemic to the region (Pocillopora aliciae) or rare in the tropics (e.g. Porites heronensis). Pocillopora spp., in particular, showed high rates of immediate mortality. Bleaching severity of Pocillopora was high where SST_LTMAX was low or PARZ_VAR was high, whereas bleaching severity of Porites was directly associated with cumulative heat stress. While many tropical Acropora species are extremely vulnerable to bleaching, the Acropora species common at high latitudes, such as A. glauca and A. solitaryensis, showed little incidence of bleaching and immediate mortality. Two other regionally-abundant genera, Goniastrea and Turbinaria, were also largely unaffected by the thermal anomaly. The severity of assemblage-scale bleaching responses was poorly explained by the environmental parameters we examined. Instead, the severity of assemblage-scale bleaching was associated with local differences in species abundance and taxon-specific bleaching responses. The marked taxonomic disparity in bleaching severity, coupled with high mortality of high-latitude endemics, point to climate-driven simplification of assemblage structures and progressive homogenisation of reef functions at these high-latitude locations.

Climate cooling and clade competition likely drove the decline of lamniform sharks

Understanding heterogeneity in species richness between closely related clades is a key research question in ecology and evolutionary biology. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to interpret such diversity contrasts across the tree of life, with most studies focusing on speciation rates to explain clades' evolutionary radiations, while often neglecting extinction rates. Here we study a notorious biological model as exemplified by the sister relationships between mackerel sharks (Lamniformes, 15 extant species) and ground sharks (Carcharhiniformes, ∼290 extant species). Using a comprehensive fossil dataset, we found that the diversity dynamics of lamniforms waxed and waned following repeated cycles of radiation phases and declining phases. Radiation phases peaked up to 3 times the current diversity in the early Late Cretaceous. In the last 20 million years, the group declined to its present-day diversity. Along with a higher extinction risk for young species, we further show that this declining pattern is likely attributed to a combination of abiotic and biotic factors, with a cooling-driven extinction (negative correlation between temperature and extinction) and clade competition with some ground sharks. Competition from multiple clades successively drove the demise and replacement of mackerel sharks due to a failure to originate facing the rise of ground sharks, particularly since the Eocene. These effects came from ecologically similar carcharhiniform species inhibiting diversification of medium- and large-sized lamniforms. These results imply that the interplay between abiotic and biotic drivers had a substantial role in extinction and speciation, respectively, which determines the sequential rise and decline of marine apex predators.

Echinoids from the Tesero Member (Werfen Formation) of the Dolomites (Italy): implications for extinction and survival of echinoids in the aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction

The end-Permian mass extinction (∼252 Ma) was responsible for high rates of extinction and evolutionary bottlenecks in a number of animal groups. Echinoids, or sea urchins, were no exception, and the Permian to Triassic represents one of the most significant intervals of time in their macroevolutionary history. The extinction event was responsible for significant turnover, with the Permian–Triassic representing the transition from stem group echinoid-dominated faunas in the Palaeozoic to Mesozoic faunas dominated by crown group echinoids. This turnover is well-known, however, the environmental and taxonomic distribution of echinoids during the latest Permian and Early Triassic is not. Here we report on an echinoid fauna from the Tesero Member, Werfen Formation (latest Permian to Early Triassic) of the Dolomites (northern Italy). The fauna is largely known from disarticulated ossicles, but consists of both stem group taxa, and a new species of crown group echinoid, Eotiaris teseroensis n. sp. That these stem group echinoids were present in the Tesero Member indicates that stem group echinoids did not go extinct in the Dolomites coincident with the onset of extinction, further supporting other recent work indicating that stem group echinoids survived the end-Permian extinction. Furthermore, the presence of Eotiaris across a number of differing palaeoenvironments in the Early Triassic may have had implications for the survival of cidaroid echinoids during the extinction event.

Exploring the power of Bayesian birth-death skyline models to detect mass extinction events from phylogenies with only extant taxa

Mass extinction events (MEEs), defined as significant losses of species diversity in significantly short time periods, have attracted the attention of biologists because of their link to major environmental change. MEEs have traditionally been studied through the fossil record, but the development of birth-death models has made it possible to detect their signature based on extant-taxa phylogenies. Most birth-death models consider MEEs as instantaneous events where a high proportion of species are simultaneously removed from the tree ("single pulse" approach), in contrast to the paleontological record, where MEEs have a time duration. Here, we explore the power of a Bayesian Birth-Death Skyline (BDSKY) model to detect the signature of MEEs through changes in extinction rates under a "time-slice" approach. In this approach, MEEs are time intervals where the extinction rate is greater than the speciation rate. Results showed BDSKY can detect and locate MEEs but that precision and accuracy depend on the phylogeny's size and MEE intensity. Comparisons of BDSKY with the single-pulse Bayesian model, CoMET, showed a similar frequency of Type II error and neither model exhibited Type I error. However, while CoMET performed better in detecting and locating MEEs for smaller phylogenies, BDSKY showed higher accuracy in estimating extinction and speciation rates.

Loss of Biodiversity Dimensions through Shifting Climates and Ancient Mass Extinctions

Many aspects of climate affect the deployment of biodiversity in time and space, and so changes in climate might be expected to drive regional and global extinction of both taxa and their ecological functions. Here we examine the association of past climate changes with extinction in marine bivalves, which are increasingly used as a model system for macroecological and macroevolutionary analysis. Focusing on the Cenozoic Era (66 Myr ago to the present), we analyze extinction patterns in shallow-water marine bivalve genera relative to temperature dynamics as estimated from isotopic data in microfossils. When the entire Cenozoic timeseries is considered, extinction intensity is not significantly associated with the mean temperature or the detrended variance in temperature within a given time interval (stratigraphic stage). However, extinction increases significantly with both the rate of temperature change within the stage of extinction and the absolute change in mean temperature from the preceding stage to the stage of extinction. Thus, several extinction events, particularly the extinction pulse near the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary, do appear to have climatic drivers. Further, the latitudinal diversity gradient today and the Cenozoic history of polar faunas suggest that long-term, regional extinctions associated with cooling removed not just taxa but a variety of ecological functions from high-latitude seas. These dynamics of biodiversity loss contrast with the two mass extinctions bracketing the Mesozoic Era, which had negligible effects on the diversity of ecological functions despite removing nearly as many taxa as the latitudinal gradient does today. Thus, the fossil record raises a key issue: whether the biotic consequences of present-day stresses will more closely resemble the long-term effects of past climate changes or those that cascaded from the mass extinctions.

The biogeographical imprint of mass extinctions

Mass extinctions are defined by extinction rates significantly above background levels and have had substantial consequences for the evolution of life. Geographically selective extinctions, subsequent originations and species redistributions may have changed global biogeographical structure, but quantification of this change is lacking. In order to assess quantitatively the biogeographical impact of mass extinctions, we outline time-traceable bioregions for benthic marine species across the Phanerozoic using a compositional network. Mass extinction events are visually recognizable in the geographical depiction of bioregions. The end-Permian extinction stands out with a severe reduction of provinciality. Time series of biogeographical turnover represent a novel aspect of the analysis of mass extinctions, confirming concentration of changes in the geographical distribution of benthic marine life.

Miocene biome turnover drove conservative body size evolution across Australian vertebrates

On deep time scales, changing climatic trends can have a predictable influence on macroevolution. From evidence of mass extinctions, we know that rapid climatic oscillations can indirectly open niche space and precipitate adaptive radiation, changing the course of ecological diversification. These dramatic shifts in the global climate, however, are rare events relative to extended periods of protracted climate change and biome turnover. It remains unclear whether during gradually changing periods, shifting habitats may instead promote non-adaptive speciation by facilitating allopatry and phenotypic conservatism. Using fossil-calibrated, species-level phylogenies for five Australian radiations comprising more than 800 species, we investigated temporal trends in biogeography and body size evolution. Here, we demonstrate that gradual Miocene cooling and aridification correlates with the restricted phenotypic diversification of multiple ecologically diverse vertebrate groups. This probably occurred as species ranges became fractured and isolated during continental biome restructuring, encouraging a shift towards conservatism in body size evolution. Our results provide further evidence that abiotic changes, not only biotic interactions, may act as selective forces influencing phenotypic macroevolution.

River networks as ecological corridors: A coherent ecohydrological perspective

This paper draws together several lines of argument to suggest that an ecohydrological framework, i.e. laboratory, field and theoretical approaches focused on hydrologic controls on biota, has contributed substantially to our understanding of the function of river networks as ecological corridors. Such function proves relevant to: the spatial ecology of species; population dynamics and biological invasions; the spread of waterborne disease. As examples, we describe metacommunity predictions of fish diversity patterns in the Mississippi-Missouri basin, geomorphic controls imposed by the fluvial landscape on elevational gradients of species' richness, the zebra mussel invasion of the same Mississippi-Missouri river system, and the spread of proliferative kidney disease in salmonid fish. We conclude that spatial descriptions of ecological processes in the fluvial landscape, constrained by their specific hydrologic and ecological dynamics and by the ecosystem matrix for interactions, i.e. the directional dispersal embedded in fluvial and host/pathogen mobility networks, have already produced a remarkably broad range of significant results. Notable scientific and practical perspectives are thus open, in the authors' view, to future developments in ecohydrologic research.

Mammal body size evolution in North America and Europe over 20 Myr: similar trends generated by different processes

Because body size interacts with many fundamental biological properties of a species, body size evolution can be an essential component of the generation and maintenance of biodiversity. Here we investigate how body size evolution can be linked to the clade-specific diversification dynamics in different geographical regions. We analyse an extensive body size dataset of Neogene large herbivores (covering approx. 50% of the 970 species in the orders Artiodactyla and Perissodactyla) in Europe and North America in a Bayesian framework. We reconstruct the temporal patterns of body size in each order on each continent independently, and find significant increases of minimum size in three of the continental assemblages (except European perissodactyls), suggesting an active selection for larger bodies. Assessment of trait-correlated birth-death models indicates that the common trend of body size increase is generated by different processes in different clades and regions. Larger-bodied artiodactyl species on both continents tend to have higher origination rates, and both clades in North America show strong links between large bodies and low extinction rate. Collectively, our results suggest a strong role of species selection and perhaps of higher-taxon sorting in driving body size evolution, and highlight the value of investigating evolutionary processes in a biogeographic context.

The old and the new plankton: ecological replacement of associations of mollusc plankton and giant filter feeders after the Cretaceous?

Owing to their great diversity and abundance, ammonites and belemnites represented key elements in Mesozoic food webs. Because of their extreme ontogenetic size increase by up to three orders of magnitude, their position in the food webs likely changed during ontogeny. Here, we reconstruct the number of eggs laid by large adult females of these cephalopods and discuss developmental shifts in their ecologic roles. Based on similarities in conch morphology, size, habitat and abundance, we suggest that similar niches occupied in the Cretaceous by juvenile ammonites and belemnites were vacated during the extinction and later partially filled by holoplanktonic gastropods. As primary consumers, these extinct cephalopod groups were important constituents of the plankton and a principal food source for planktivorous organisms. As victims or, respectively, profiteers of this case of ecological replacement, filter feeding chondrichthyans and cetaceans likely filled the niches formerly occupied by large pachycormid fishes during the Jurassic and Cretaceous.

Contrasting responses of functional diversity to major losses in taxonomic diversity

Taxonomic diversity of benthic marine invertebrate shelf species declines at present by nearly an order of magnitude from the tropics to the poles in each hemisphere along the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), most steeply along the western Pacific where shallow-sea diversity is at its tropical maximum. In the Bivalvia, a model system for macroevolution and macroecology, this taxonomic trend is accompanied by a decline in the number of functional groups and an increase in the evenness of taxa distributed among those groups, with maximum functional evenness (FE) in polar waters of both hemispheres. In contrast, analyses of this model system across the two era-defining events of the Phanerozoic, the Permian-Triassic and Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinctions, show only minor declines in functional richness despite high extinction intensities, resulting in a rise in FE owing to the persistence of functional groups. We hypothesize that the spatial decline of taxonomic diversity and increase in FE along the present-day LDG primarily reflect diversity-dependent factors, whereas retention of almost all functional groups through the two mass extinctions suggests the operation of diversity-independent factors. Comparative analyses of different aspects of biodiversity thus reveal strongly contrasting biological consequences of similarly severe declines in taxonomic diversity and can help predict the consequences for functional diversity among different drivers of past, present, and future biodiversity loss.

Approaches to Macroevolution: 2. Sorting of Variation, Some Overarching Issues, and General Conclusions

Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, within a hierarchical framework. Following a companion paper on the origin of variation, I here discuss sorting within an evolutionary hierarchy. Species sorting-sometimes termed species selection in the broad sense, meaning differential origination and extinction owing to intrinsic biological properties-can be split into strict-sense species selection, in which rate differentials are governed by emergent, species-level traits such as geographic range size, and effect macroevolution, in which rates are governed by organism-level traits such as body size; both processes can create hitchhiking effects, indirectly causing the proliferation or decline of other traits. Several methods can operationalize the concept of emergence, so that rigorous separation of these processes is increasingly feasible. A macroevolutionary tradeoff, underlain by the intrinsic traits that influence evolutionary dynamics, causes speciation and extinction rates to covary in many clades, resulting in evolutionary volatility of some clades and more subdued behavior of others; the few clades that break the tradeoff can achieve especially prolific diversification. In addition to intrinsic biological traits at multiple levels, extrinsic events can drive the waxing and waning of clades, and the interaction of traits and events are difficult but important to disentangle. Evolutionary trends can arise in many ways, and at any hierarchical level; descriptive models can be fitted to clade trajectories in phenotypic or functional spaces, but they may not be diagnostic regarding processes, and close attention must be paid to both leading and trailing edges of apparent trends. Biotic interactions can have negative or positive effects on taxonomic diversity within a clade, but cannot be readily extrapolated from the nature of such interactions at the organismic level. The relationships among macroevolutionary currencies through time (taxonomic richness, morphologic disparity, functional variety) are crucial for understanding the nature of evolutionary diversification. A novel approach to diversity-disparity analysis shows that taxonomic diversifications can lag behind, occur in concert with, or precede, increases in disparity. Some overarching issues relating to both the origin and sorting of clades and phenotypes include the macroevolutionary role of mass extinctions, the potential differences between plant and animal macroevolution, whether macroevolutionary processes have changed through geologic time, and the growing human impact on present-day macroevolution. Many challenges remain, but progress is being made on two of the key ones: (a) the integration of variation-generating mechanisms and the multilevel sorting processes that act on that variation, and (b) the integration of paleontological and neontological approaches to historical biology.

Beyond the Big Five: Extinctions as Experiments in the History of Life

The past century has witnessed a number of significant breakthroughs in the study of extinction in the fossil record, from the discovery of a bolide impact as the probable cause of the end-Cretaceous (K/T) mass extinction to the designation of the “Big 5” mass extinction events. Here, I summarize the major themes that have emerged from the past thirty years of extinction research and highlight a number of promising directions for future research. These directions explore a central theme—the evolutionary consequences of extinction— and focus on three broad research areas: the effects of selectivity, the importance of recovery intervals, and the influence of spatial patterns. Examples of topics explored include the role that trait variation plays in survivorship, the comparative effects of extinctions of varying magnitudes on evolutionary patterns, the re-establishment of macroevolutionary patterns in the aftermath of extinction, and the extent to which spatial autocorrelation affects extinction patterns. These topics can be approached by viewing extinctions as repeated natural experiments in the history of life and developing hypotheses to explicitly test across multiple events. Exploring the effects of extinction also requires an interdisciplinary approach, applying evolutionary, ecological, geochronological, geochemical, tectonic, and paleoclimatic tools to both extinction and recovery intervals.

Greenhouse-icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton

Two distinct regimes of extinction dynamic are present in the major marine zooplankton group, the graptolites, during the Ordovician and Silurian periods (486-418 Ma). In conditions of "background" extinction, which dominated in the Ordovician, taxonomic evolutionary rates were relatively low and the probability of extinction was highest among newly evolved species ("background extinction mode"). A sharp change in extinction regime in the Late Ordovician marked the onset of repeated severe spikes in the extinction rate curve; evolutionary turnover increased greatly in the Silurian, and the extinction mode changed to include extinction that was independent of species age ("high-extinction mode"). This change coincides with a change in global climate, from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. During the most extreme episode of extinction, the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction, old species were selectively removed ("mass extinction mode"). Our analysis indicates that selective regimes in the Paleozoic ocean plankton switched rapidly (generally in <0.5 My) from one mode to another in response to environmental change, even when restoration of the full ecosystem was much slower (several million years). The patterns observed are not a simple consequence of geographic range effects or of taxonomic changes from Ordovician to Silurian. Our results suggest that the dominant primary controls on extinction throughout the lifespan of this clade were abiotic (environmental), probably mediated by the microphytoplankton.

Extinction risk of soil biota

No species lives on earth forever. Knowing when and why species go extinct is crucial for a complete understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic activity, and its impact on ecosystem functioning. Even though soil biota play a key role in maintaining the functioning of ecosystems, the vast majority of existing studies focus on aboveground organisms. Many questions about the fate of belowground organisms remain open, so the combined effort of theorists and applied ecologists is needed in the ongoing development of soil extinction ecology.

An analysis of pterosaurian biogeography: implications for the evolutionary history and fossil record quality of the first flying vertebrates

The biogeographical history of pterosaurs has received very little treatment. Here, we present the first quantitative analysis of pterosaurian biogeography based on an event-based parsimony method (Treefitter). This approach was applied to a phylogenetic tree comprising the relationships of 108 in-group pterosaurian taxa, spanning the full range of this clade's stratigraphical and geographical extent. The results indicate that there is no support for the impact of vicariance or coherent dispersal on pterosaurian distributions. However, this group does display greatly elevated levels of sympatry. Although sampling biases and taxonomic problems might have artificially elevated the occurrence of sympatry, we argue that our results probably reflect a genuine biogeographical signal. We propose a novel model to explain pterosaurian distributions: pterosaurs underwent a series of 'sweep-stakes' dispersal events (across oceanic barriers in most cases), resulting in the founding of sympatric clusters of taxa. Examination of the spatiotemporal distributions of pterosaurian occurrences indicates that their fossil record is extremely patchy. Thus, while there is likely to be genuine information on pterosaurian diversity and biogeographical patterns in the current data-set, caution is required in its interpretation.

Geographic range did not confer resilience to extinction in terrestrial vertebrates at the end-Triassic crisis

Rates of extinction vary greatly through geological time, with losses particularly concentrated in mass extinctions. Species duration at other times varies greatly, but the reasons for this are unclear. Geographical range correlates with lineage duration amongst marine invertebrates, but it is less clear how far this generality extends to other groups in other habitats. It is also unclear whether a wide geographical distribution makes groups more likely to survive mass extinctions. Here we test for extinction selectivity amongst terrestrial vertebrates across the end-Triassic event. We demonstrate that terrestrial vertebrate clades with larger geographical ranges were more resilient to extinction than those with smaller ranges throughout the Triassic and Jurassic. However, this relationship weakened with increasing proximity to the end-Triassic mass extinction, breaking down altogether across the event itself. We demonstrate that these findings are not a function of sampling biases; a perennial issue in studies of this kind.

Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.

Severity of ocean acidification following the end-Cretaceous asteroid impact

Most paleo-episodes of ocean acidification (OA) were either too slow or too small to be instructive in predicting near-future impacts. The end-Cretaceous event (66 Mya) is intriguing in this regard, both because of its rapid onset and also because many pelagic calcifying species (including 100% of ammonites and more than 90% of calcareous nannoplankton and foraminifera) went extinct at this time. Here we evaluate whether extinction-level OA could feasibly have been produced by the asteroid impact. Carbon cycle box models were used to estimate OA consequences of (i) vaporization of up to 60 × 10(15) mol of sulfur from gypsum rocks at the point of impact; (ii) generation of up to 5 × 10(15) mol of NOx by the impact pressure wave and other sources; (iii) release of up to 6,500 Pg C as CO2 from vaporization of carbonate rocks, wildfires, and soil carbon decay; and (iv) ocean overturn bringing high-CO2 water to the surface. We find that the acidification produced by most processes is too weak to explain calcifier extinctions. Sulfuric acid additions could have made the surface ocean extremely undersaturated (Ωcalcite <0.5), but only if they reached the ocean very rapidly (over a few days) and if the quantity added was at the top end of literature estimates. We therefore conclude that severe ocean acidification might have been, but most likely was not, responsible for the great extinctions of planktonic calcifiers and ammonites at the end of the Cretaceous.

Taxonomy and Phylogeny Can Yield Comparable Results in Comparative Paleontological Analyses

Many extinct taxa with extensive fossil records and mature taxonomic classifications have not yet been the subject of formal phylogenetic analysis. Here, we test whether the taxonomies available for such groups represent useful (i.e., non-misleading) substitutes for trees derived from matrix-based phylogenetic analyses. We collected data for 52 animal clades that included fossil representatives, and for which a recent cladogram and pre-cladistic taxonomy were available. We quantified the difference between the time-scaled phylogenies implied by taxonomies and cladograms using the matching cluster distance metric. We simulated phenotypic trait values and used them to estimate a series of commonly used, phylogenetically explicit measures (phylogenetic signal [Blomberg's [Formula: see text]], phylogenetic generalized least squares [PGLS], mode of evolution [Brownian vs. Ornstein-Uhlenbeck], and phylogenetic clustering of extinction [Fritz and Purvis' [Formula: see text]]) in order to determine the degree to which they co-varied on taxonomic and cladistic trees. With respect to topology taxonomies are good approximations of the underlying evolutionary relationships as recorded in inferred cladograms. Detection of phylogenetic clustering of extinction could not be properly assessed. For all other evolutionary analyses, results from taxonomy-based phylogenies (TBPs) co-varied with those from cladogram-based phylogenies (CBPs), but individual comparisons could be misleading. The relative length of terminal branches (influenced by stratigraphy and sampling rate) is a key control on the shared information between, and therefore the relative performance of, TBP and CBP. Collectively these results suggest that under particular circumstances and after careful consideration some taxonomies, or composite trees that incorporate taxonomic information, could be used in place of a formal analytical solution, but workers must be cautious. This opens certain parts of a previously inaccessible section of the fossil record to interrogation within an explicit comparative framework, which will help to test many classical macroevolutionary hypotheses formulated for groups that currently lack formal phylogenetic estimates.

Origins, bottlenecks, and present-day diversity: patterns of morphospace occupation in marine bivalves

It has long been known that species should not be distributed randomly in morphospace (a multidimensional trait space), even under simple models of evolution. However, recent studies suggest that position in morphospace can affect aspects of evolution such as the durations of clades and the species richness of their constituent taxa. Here we investigate the dynamics of morphospace occupancy in living and fossil marine bivalves using shell size and aspect ratio, two functionally important traits. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the center of a family's morphospace today represents a location where taxonomic diversity is maximized, apparently owing to lower extinction rates. Within individual bivalve families, species with narrow geographic ranges are distributed throughout the morphospace but widespread species, which are generally expected to be extinction resistant, tend to be concentrated near the center. The morphospace centers of most species-rich families today (defined as the median value for all species in the family) tend to be close to the positions of the family founders, further suggesting an association between position in morphospace and net diversification rates. However, trajectories of individual subclades (genera) are inconsistent with the center of morphospace being an evolutionary attractor.

The Early Origin of the Antarctic Marine Fauna and Its Evolutionary Implications

The extensive Late Cretaceous – Early Paleogene sedimentary succession of Seymour Island, N.E. Antarctic Peninsula offers an unparalleled opportunity to examine the evolutionary origins of a modern polar marine fauna. Some 38 modern Southern Ocean molluscan genera (26 gastropods and 12 bivalves), representing approximately 18% of the total modern benthic molluscan fauna, can now be traced back through at least part of this sequence. As noted elsewhere in the world, the balance of the molluscan fauna changes sharply across the Cretaceous – Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary, with gastropods subsequently becoming more diverse than bivalves. A major reason for this is a significant radiation of the Neogastropoda, which today forms one of the most diverse clades in the sea. Buccinoidea is the dominant neogastropod superfamily in both the Paleocene Sobral Formation (SF) (56% of neogastropod genera) and Early - Middle Eocene La Meseta Formation (LMF) (47%), with the Conoidea (25%) being prominent for the first time in the latter. This radiation of Neogastropoda is linked to a significant pulse of global warming that reached at least 65°S, and terminates abruptly in the upper LMF in an extinction event that most likely heralds the onset of global cooling. It is also possible that the marked Early Paleogene expansion of neogastropods in Antarctica is in part due to a global increase in rates of origination following the K/Pg mass extinction event. The radiation of this and other clades at ∼65°S indicates that Antarctica was not necessarily an evolutionary refugium, or sink, in the Early – Middle Eocene. Evolutionary source – sink dynamics may have been significantly different between the Paleogene greenhouse and Neogene icehouse worlds.

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient through deep time

Today, biodiversity decreases from equatorial to polar regions. This is a fundamental pattern governing the distribution of extant organisms, the understanding of which is critical to predicting climatically driven biodiversity loss. However, its causes remain unresolved. The fossil record offers a unique perspective on the evolution of this latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), providing a dynamic system in which to explore spatiotemporal diversity fluctuations. Deep-time studies indicate that a tropical peak and poleward decline in species diversity has not been a persistent pattern throughout the Phanerozoic, but is restricted to intervals of the Palaeozoic and the past 30 million years. A tropical peak might characterise cold icehouse climatic regimes, whereas warmer greenhouse regimes display temperate diversity peaks or flattened gradients.