Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution in 2015 show persistent nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought

Air Pollution and Blood Pressure: Evidence From Indonesia

Indonesia faces significant air quality issues due to multiple emissions sources, including rapid urbanization and peatland fires associated with agricultural land management. Limited prior research has estimated the episodic shock of intense fires on morbidity and mortality in Indonesia but has largely ignored the impact of poor air quality throughout the year on biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk. We conducted a cross-sectional study of the association between particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5) and blood pressure. Blood pressure measurements were obtained from the fifth wave of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS5), an ongoing population-based socioeconomic and health survey. We used the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate daily PM2.5 concentrations at 0.5° × 0.625° resolution across the IFLS domain. We assessed the association between PM2.5 and diastolic and systolic blood pressure, using mixed effects models with random intercepts for regency/municipality and household and adjusted for individual covariates. An interquartile range increase in monthly PM2.5 exposure was associated with a 0.234 (95% CI: 0.003, 0.464) higher diastolic blood pressure, with a greater association seen in participants age 65 and over (1.16 [95% CI: 0.24, 2.08]). For the same exposure metric, there was a 1.90 (95% CI: 0.43, 3.37) higher systolic blood pressure in participants 65 and older. Our assessment of fire-specific PM2.5 yielded null results, potentially due to the timing and locations of health data collection. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide evidence for an association between PM2.5 and blood pressure in Indonesia.

Interannual changes in atmospheric oxidation over forests determined from space

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the central oxidant in Earth's troposphere, but its temporal variability is poorly understood. We combine 2012-2020 satellite-based isoprene and formaldehyde measurements to identify coherent OH changes over temperate and tropical forests with attribution to emission trends, biotic stressors, and climate. We identify a multiyear OH decrease over the Southeast United States and show that with increasingly hot/dry summers the regional chemistry could become even less oxidizing depending on competing temperature/drought impacts on isoprene. Furthermore, while global mean OH decreases during El Niño, we show that near-field effects over tropical rainforests can alternate between high/low OH anomalies due to opposing fire and biogenic emission impacts. Results provide insights into how atmospheric oxidation will evolve with changing emissions and climate.

When the smoke gets in your lungs: short-term effects of Indonesia's 2015 forest fires on health care use

BACKGROUND

The forest fires that ravaged parts of Indonesia in 2015 were the most severely polluting of this century but little is known about their effects on health care utilization of the affected population. We estimate their short-term impact on visit rates to primary and hospital care with particular focus on visits for specific smoke-related conditions (respiratory disease, acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) and common cold).

METHOD

We estimate the short-term impact of the 2015 forest fire on visit rates to primary and hospital care by combining satellite data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with administrative records from Indonesian National Health Insurance Agency (BPJS Kesehatan) from January 2015-April  2016. The 16 months of panel data cover 203 districts in the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan before, during and after the forest fires. We use the (more efficient) ANCOVA version adaptation of a fixed effects model to compare the trends in healthcare use of affected districts (with AOD value above 0.75) with control districts (AOD value below 0.75). Considering the higher vulnerability of children's lungs, we do this separately for children under 5 and the rest of the population adults (> 5), and for both urban and rural areas, and for both the period during and after the forest fires.

RESULTS

We find little effects for adults. For young children we estimate positive effects for care related to respiratory problems in primary health care facilities in urban areas. Hospital care visits in general, on the other hand, are negatively affected in rural areas. We argue that these patterns arise because accessibility of care during fires is more restricted for rural than for urban areas.

CONCLUSION

The severity of the fires and the absence of positive impact on health care utilization for adults and children in rural areas indicate large missed opportunities for receiving necessary care. This is particularly worrisome for children, whose lungs are most vulnerable to the effects. Our findings underscore the need to ensure ongoing access to medical services during forest fires and emphasize the necessity of catching up with essential care for children after the fires, particularly in rural areas.

Global health impacts of ambient fine particulate pollution associated with climate variability

Air pollution is a key global environmental problem raising human health concern. It is essential to comprehensively assess the long-term characteristics of air pollution and the resultant health impacts. We first assessed the global trends of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) during 1980-2020 using a monthly global PM2.5 reanalysis dataset, and evaluated their association with three types of climate variability including El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and North Atlantic Oscillation. We then estimated PM2.5-attributable premature deaths using integrated exposure-response functions. Results show a significant increasing trend of ambient PM2.5 during 1980-2020 due to increases in anthropogenic emissions. Ambient PM2.5 caused a total of ∼ 135 million premature deaths globally during the four decades. Occurrence of air pollution episodes was strongly associated with climate variability, which were associated with up to 14 % increase in annual global PM2.5-attributable premature deaths.

Assessing local and transboundary fine particulate matter pollution and sectoral contributions in Southeast Asia during haze months of 2015-2019

While previous studies have investigated haze events over Southeast Asia (SEA), local and transboundary contributions of various emission sources to haze months over the entire SEA have yet to be assessed comprehensively and systematically. We utilized the Particle Source Apportionment Technique (PSAT) to quantify the spatial local, transboundary, and sectoral contributions to PM2.5 over SEA during the haze months of 2015-2019. Results show that local emission contributions accounted for 56.1 % ~ 94.2 % of PM2.5 in Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. Transboundary contributions (23.1 % ~ 57.6 %) from Indonesia notably influenced maritime SEA. Vietnam (15.6 % ~ 39.1 %) and super-regional (17.0 % ~ 34.3 %) contributions outside the SEA exerted remarkable impacts on mainland SEA. Among different sectors, fire emissions contributed the most to PM2.5 over maritime SEA (23.0 % ~ 68.6 %) during the studied haze months, whereas residential and other emissions were the main contributors to mainland SEA (27.2 % ~ 36.7 %). Regarding the source species, primary PM2.5 accounted for the majority of PM2.5. VOC and SO2 composed most of the secondary PM2.5 due to massive VOC emissions in the region and the priority reaction of NH3 with sulfuric acid (H2SO4) to form ammonium sulfate. Besides, the intensified haze months in Oct 2015 and Sep 2019 were characterized by more intensive fire emissions in the region and the climatic variability-induced meteorological effects that provided favorable condition for transboundary air pollution (56.9 % and 44.9 %, respectively, for maritime SEA, as well as 46.0 % and 37.7 %, respectively, for mainland SEA in the two studied haze months). The haze months can be attributed to the notable drought conditions amidst global climatic phenomena such as El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in Oct 2015 and Sep 2019, respectively.

Global seasonal prediction of fire danger

The European Centre for Medium range weather forecast (ECMWF) on behalf of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) has recently widened the fire danger data offering in the Climate Data Store (CDS) to include a set of fire danger forecasts with lead times up to 7 months. The dataset incorporates fire danger indices for three different models developed in Canada, United States and Australia. The indices are calculated using ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (SEAS5) and verified against the relevant reanalysis of fire danger based on the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA5). The data set is made openly available for the period 1981 to 2023 and will be updated regularly providing a resource to assess the predictability of fire weather at the seasonal time scale. The data set complements the availability of seasonal forecast provided by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service in real time.A preliminary analysis shows that globally anomalous conditions for fire weather can be predicted with confidence 1 month ahead. In some regions the prediction can extend to 2 months ahead. In most situations beyond this horizon, forecasts do not show more skill than climatology. However an extended predictability window, up to 6-7 months ahead is possible when anomalous fire weather is the results of large scale phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, often conducive of extensive fire burning in regions such as Indonesia and Australia.

Positive feedback to regional climate enhances African wildfires

Regional climate strongly regulates the occurrence of wildfires partly because drying of fuel load increases fires. The large amounts of aerosols released by wildfires can also strongly affect regional climate. Here we show positive feedback (a seasonal burned area enhancement of 7-17%) due to wildfire aerosol forcing in Africa found in the simulations using the interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire (RESFire) model in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The positive feedback results partly from the transport of fire aerosols from burning (dry) to wet regions, reducing precipitation and drying fuel load to enhance fires toward the non-burning (wet) region. This internally self-enhanced burning is an important mechanism for the regulation of African ecosystems and for understanding African fire behaviors in a changing climate. A similar mechanism may also help sustain wildfires in other tropical regions.

Global distribution, trends and types of active fire occurrences

Fire occurrence is synonymous to terrestrial ecosystems and an important component of the Earth system. Climate change, vegetation characteristics, and human activity regulate fire occurrence and spread, however, fires also interact with them in multiple ways. Due to the complicated mechanisms of interactions between fire and land use or cover, the spatial distribution, change trends and land use or cover types of fire occurrences exist wide discrepancies in different regions or countries around the world. Therefore, the quantitative and spatial relationship and differences between fire and land use or cover at the global scale remain poorly understood systematically. Here, we combine active fire and land cover products during 2001-2020 to explore the spatio-temporal features, trends, and types of active fires from global to continental scales. Globally, the annual changes of monthly active fire occurrences kept a dramatic increase in first two or three years but a circuitous decrease since then. Most areas prevailingly experienced active fires for once to five times, a small part of areas clustered in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America experienced active fires for over five times in the last 20-years. In particular, above 60 % of active fires (re-)occurred in forest and 20-25 % in cropland, whereas grassland and construction land only accounted for about 5 % and less than 2 % respectively. Driven by active fires, the conversion of forest to cropland accounted for nearly 60 % and the transition of cropland to forest (about 10 %) followed and formed an interactive circle. Our findings improve the understanding of fire-land cover change interactions, particularly agricultural expansion and forest loss driven by active fires. Future efforts on agricultural expansion, urban safety, carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation should take the results of this research into account.

Wildfire smoke linked to vocal changes in wild Bornean orangutans

Tropical peatlands are the sites of Earth's largest fire events, with outsized contributions to greenhouse gases, toxic smoke, and haze rich with particulate matter. The human health risks from wildfire smoke are well known, but its effects on wildlife inhabiting these ecosystems are poorly understood. In 2015, peatland fires on Borneo created a thick haze of smoke that blanketed the region. We studied its effects on the long call vocalizations of four adult male Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii) in a peat swamp forest. During the period of heavy smoke, orangutans called less often and showed reduced vocal quality-lower pitch, increased harshness and perturbations, and more nonlinear phenomena-similar to changes in human smokers. Most of these changes persisted for two months after the smoke had cleared and likely signal changes in health. Our work contributes valuable information to support non-invasive acoustic monitoring of this Critically Endangered primate.

Quantifying the premature mortality and economic loss from wildfire-induced PM2.5 in the contiguous U.S

Emissions from wildfires worsen air quality and can adversely impact human health. This study utilized the fire inventory from NCAR (FINN) as wildfire emissions, and performed air quality modeling of April-October 2012, 2013, and 2014 using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency CMAQ model under two cases: with and without wildfire emissions. This study then assessed the health impacts and economic values attributable to PM_2.5 from fires. Results indicated that wildfires could lead annually to 4000 cases of premature mortality in the U.S., corresponding to $36 billion losses. Regions with high concentrations of fire-induced PM_2.5 were in the west (e.g., Idaho, Montana, and northern California) and Southeast (e.g., Alabama, Georgia). Metropolitan areas located near fire sources, exhibited large health burdens, such as Los Angeles (119 premature deaths, corresponding to $1.07 billion), Atlanta (76, $0.69 billion), and Houston (65, $0.58 billion). Regions in the downwind of western fires, although experiencing relatively low values of fire-induced PM_2.5, showed notable health burdens due to their large population, such as metropolitan areas of New York (86, $0.78 billion), Chicago (60, $0.54 billion), and Pittsburgh (32, $0.29 billion). Results suggest that impacts from wildfires are substantial, and to mitigate these impacts, better forest management and more resilient infrastructure would be needed.

Effect of biomass burning on premature mortality associated with long-term exposure to PM2.5 in Equatorial Asia

The health burden from exposure to ambient fine particulates (PM_2.5) in Equatorial Asia is substantially affected by the peatland fires in Indonesia, but the long-term health effect of the fires on local inhabitants is unclear. In this study, PM_2.5-associated excess mortality in Equatorial Asia over the past 30 years (1990-2019) was estimated and then the health effect of biomass burning was identified. The PM_2.5-related death in Equatorial Asia almost tripled from 113 (95% confidence interval, 100-125) thousand in 1990 to 337 (300-373) thousand in 2019, with a rate of increase of 6.4 (6.2-6.9) thousand/yr. The intense biomass burning between 1990 and 2019 was estimated to have induced 317 (282-348) thousand excess deaths in the study regions, with excess deaths mainly occurring in the El Niño years, such as in 1997, 2006, 2015 and 2019. Although the remote sensing data and emission inventories both reveal that the effective control measures have reduced biomass burning intensity in Equatorial Asia (especially in Sumatra and Borneo), the corresponding health benefit has been offset by variations in demographic factors, i.e., population and age structure. Over the same period, fossil fuel emissions continued to increase rapidly. Thus, more stringent and ambitious policies are required to reduce the health burden from biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions simultaneously to maximize the health benefits from government measures and policies.

Record-high CO2 emissions from boreal fires in 2021

Extreme wildfires are becoming more common and increasingly affecting Earth's climate. Wildfires in boreal forests have attracted much less attention than those in tropical forests, although boreal forests are one of the most extensive biomes on Earth and are experiencing the fastest warming. We used a satellite-based atmospheric inversion system to monitor fire emissions in boreal forests. Wildfires are rapidly expanding into boreal forests with emerging warmer and drier fire seasons. Boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% of global fire carbon dioxide emissions, contributed 23% (0.48 billion metric tons of carbon) in 2021, by far the highest fraction since 2000. 2021 was an abnormal year because North American and Eurasian boreal forests synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit. Increasing numbers of extreme boreal fires and stronger climate-fire feedbacks challenge climate mitigation efforts.

Accuracy of tropical peat and non-peat fire forecasts enhanced by simulating hydrology

Soil moisture deficits and water table dynamics are major biophysical controls on peat and non-peat fires in Indonesia. Development of modern fire forecasting models in Indonesia is hampered by the lack of scalable hydrologic datasets or scalable hydrology models that can inform the fire forecasting models on soil hydrologic behaviour. Existing fire forecasting models in Indonesia use weather data-derived fire probability indices, which often do not adequately proxy the sub-surface hydrologic dynamics. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture and water table dynamics can be simulated successfully across tropical peatlands and non-peatland areas by using a process-based eco-hydrology model (ecosys) and publicly available data for weather, soil, and management. Inclusion of these modelled water table depth and soil moisture contents significantly improves the accuracy of a neural network model in predicting active fires at two-weekly time scale. This constitutes an important step towards devising an operational fire early warning system for Indonesia.

Environmental variable importance for under-five mortality in Malaysia: A random forest approach

BACKGROUND

Environmental factors have been associated with adverse health effects in epidemiological studies. The main exposure variable is usually determined via prior knowledge or statistical methods. It may be challenging when evidence is scarce to support prior knowledge, or to address collinearity issues using statistical methods. This study aimed to investigate the importance level of environmental variables for the under-five mortality in Malaysia via random forest approach.

METHOD

We applied a conditional permutation importance via a random forest (CPI-RF) approach to evaluate the relative importance of the weather- and air pollution-related environmental factors on daily under-five mortality in Malaysia. This study spanned from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016. In data preparation, deviation mortality counts were derived through a generalized additive model, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality. Analyses were conducted considering mortality causes (all-cause, natural-cause, or external-cause) and data structures (continuous, categorical, or all types [i.e., include all variables of continuous type and all variables of categorical type]). The main analysis comprised of two stages. In Stage 1, Boruta selection was applied for preliminary screening to remove highly unimportant variables. In Stage 2, the retained variables from Boruta were used in the CPI-RF analysis. The final importance value was obtained as an average value from a 10-fold cross-validation.

RESULT

Some heat-related variables (maximum temperature, heat wave), temperature variability, and haze-related variables (PM10, PM10-derived haze index, PM10- and fire-derived haze index, fire hotspot) were among the prominent variables associated with under-five mortality in Malaysia. The important variables were consistent for all- and natural-cause mortality and sensitivity analyses. However, different most important variables were observed between natural- and external-cause under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Heat-related variables, temperature variability, and haze-related variables were consistently prominent for all- and natural-cause under-five mortalities, but not for external-cause.

Spatial variations in vegetation fires and emissions in South and Southeast Asia during COVID-19 and pre-pandemic

Vegetation fires are common in South/Southeast Asian (SA/SEA) countries. However, very few studies focused on vegetation fires and the changes during the COVID as compared to pre-pandemic. This study fills an information gap and reports total fire incidences, total burnt area, type of vegetation burnt, and total particulate matter emission variations in SA/SEA during COVID-2020 and pre-pandemic (2012-2019). Results from the short-term 2020-COVID versus 2019-non-COVID year showed a decline in fire counts varying from - 2.88 to 79.43% in S/SEA. The exceptions in South Asia include Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, with a 152% and 4.9% increase, and Cambodia and Myanmar in Southeast Asia, with an 11.1% and 8.5% increase in fire counts in the 2020-COVID year. The burnt area decline for 2020 compared to 2019 varied from - 0.8% to 92% for South/Southeast Asian countries, with most burning in agricultural landscapes than forests. Several patches in S/SEA showed a decrease in fires for the 2020 pandemic year compared to long term 2012-2020 pre-pandemic record, with Z scores greater or less than two denoting statistical significance. However, on a country scale, the results were not statistically significant in both S/SEA, with Z scores ranging from - 0.24 to - 1, although most countries experienced a decrease in fire counts. The associated mean TPM emissions declined from ~ 2.31 Tg (0.73stdev) during 2012-2019 to 2.0 (0.65stdev)Tg in 2020 in South Asia and 6.83 (0.70stdev)Tg during 2012-2019 to 5.71 (0.69 stdev)Tg in 2020 for South East Asian countries. The study highlights variations in fires and emissions useful for fire management and mitigation.

A scoping review on the health effects of smoke haze from vegetation and peatland fires in Southeast Asia: Issues with study approaches and interpretation

Smoke haze due to vegetation and peatland fires in Southeast Asia is a serious public health concern. Several approaches have been applied in previous studies; however, the concepts and interpretations of these approaches are poorly understood. In this scoping review, we addressed issues related to the application of epidemiology (EPI), health burden estimation (HBE), and health risk assessment (HRA) approaches, and discussed the interpretation of findings, and current research gaps. Most studies reported an air quality index exceeding the ‘unhealthy’ level, especially during smoke haze periods. Although smoke haze is a regional issue in Southeast Asia, studies on its related health effects have only been reported from several countries in the region. Each approach revealed increased health effects in a distinct manner: EPI studies reported excess mortality and morbidity during smoke haze compared to non-smoke haze periods; HBE studies estimated approximately 100,000 deaths attributable to smoke haze in the entire Southeast Asia considering all-cause mortality and all age groups, which ranged from 1,064–260,000 for specified mortality cause, age group, study area, and study period; HRA studies quantified potential lifetime cancer and non-cancer risks due to exposure to smoke-related chemicals. Currently, there is a lack of interconnection between these three approaches. The EPI approach requires extensive effort to investigate lifetime health effects, whereas the HRA approach needs to clarify the assumptions in exposure assessments to estimate lifetime health risks. The HBE approach allows the presentation of health impact in different scenarios, however, the risk functions used are derived from EPI studies from other regions. Two recent studies applied a combination of the EPI and HBE approaches to address uncertainty issues due to the selection of risk functions. In conclusion, all approaches revealed potential health risks due to smoke haze. Nonetheless, future studies should consider comparable exposure assessments to allow the integration of the three approaches.

Evaluation of change in the peat soil properties affected by different fire severities

The tropical peatland ecosystems of Indonesia provide direct economic benefits to local communities and act to maintain local weather patterns. The impact of burning tropical peat swamp forests of land clearing for palm oil plantations can have significant consequences on the change in the characteristics of peat soil. The aim of this study was to determine the physical, chemical, and biological properties of peat soils by field and laboratory testing and analysis to understand changes in the nature and characteristics of peatlands at four locations in the Pelalawan Regency of Riau Province. The results showed that the effect of burning peat swamp forests can lead to a change in the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the peat soils. Soil permeability and the soil microbial population can significantly decrease with increasing fire severity. The effect of different fire severities on the characteristics of peat soil is verified to contribute to advanced management of the tropical peatland in the future.

The Earth-Observing Aqua Satellite Mission: 20 Years and Counting

The Earth-observing Aqua spacecraft was launched on 4 May 2002 and has now completed 20 years of collecting and transmitting data regarding the Earth's radiation budget, atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice. Although launched with a design life of 6 years, four of its instruments continue to operate and provide high-quality data streams more than 20 years after launch. The Aqua data are readily available to users worldwide and have been used in thousands of scientific publications and in numerous practical applications, including weather forecasting, air-quality assessments, and monitoring of forest fires, dust storms, volcanic ash plumes, oil spills, and crop yields.

The health impacts of Indonesian peatland fires

BACKGROUND

Indonesian peatlands have been drained for agricultural development for several decades. This development has made a major contribution to economic development. At the same time, peatland drainage is causing significant air pollution resulting from peatland fires. Peatland fires occur every year, even though their extent is much larger in dry (El Niño) years. We examine the health effects of long-term exposure to fine particles (PM_2.5) from all types of peatland fires (including the burning of above and below ground biomass) in Sumatra and Kalimantan, where most peatland fires in Indonesia take place.

METHODS

We derive PM_2.5 concentrations from satellite imagery calibrated and validated with Indonesian Government data on air pollution, and link increases in these concentrations to peatland fires, as observed in satellite imagery. Subsequently, we apply available epidemiological studies to relate PM_2.5 exposure to a range of health outcomes. The model utilizes the age distribution and disease prevalence of the impacted population.

RESULTS

We find that PM_2.5 air pollution from peatland fires, causes, on average, around 33,100 adults and 2900 infants to die prematurely each year from air pollution. In addition, peatland fires cause on average around 4390 additional hospitalizations related to respiratory diseases, 635,000 severe cases of asthma in children, and 8.9 million lost workdays. The majority of these impacts occur in Sumatra because of its much higher population density compared to Kalimantan. A main source of uncertainty is in the Concentration Response Functions (CRFs) that we use, with different CRFs leading to annual premature adult mortality ranging from 19,900 to 64,800 deaths. Currently, the population of both regions is relatively young. With aging of the population over time, vulnerabilities to air pollution and health effects from peatland fires will increase.

CONCLUSIONS

Peatland fire health impacts provide a further argument to combat fires in peatlands, and gradually transition to peatland management models that do not require drainage and are therefore not prone to fire risks.

Development of Spatial Peatland Fire Danger Index Using Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW Model

The Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a numerical value reflecting the dryness of the top layer of soils, deep forest litter, logs, and living vegetation. The KBDI is expressed as a scale from 0 to 200, where the number represents the amounts of rainfall (in millimeters) to return the soil to saturation. We proposed a method to integrate peatland groundwater as a key variable for the peatland forest fire hazard, and we called it mKBDI. The groundwater table was obtained from the SWAT-MODFLOW model simulation. The MODFLOW model uses a 200 m × 200 m grid. The SWAT-MODFLOW model was calibrated and validated using daily water level measurements in the river. The model failed to represent peak flow, but the model produced the average water level. Output from the simulation was read using the FloPy module, and then mKBDI was calculated. The daily calculations of the mKBDI for each grid for the catchment were saved in the NetCDF format using the x-array module. We applied this model in the Peatland Hydrological Unit (PHU) Merang-Kepahyang, South Sumatera, Indonesia, in 2015 (El-Niño year) and 2016 (La-Nina Year). The daily mKBDI index from all the grids in the catchment was classified into three classes: low (mKBDI < 100), moderate (mKBDI = 101–150), or high (mKBDI > 150). Then, the whole catchment was classified according to these classes. Therefore, every day the percentage of the area with low, moderate, or high class in the catchment dynamically changed. When these classes were verified with hotspot data, all hotspots only coincided with the high hazard classes, where more than 60% was area of the catchment. No hotspot data were reported on low/moderate levels throughout 2015/2016. In the larger area with high mKBDI classes, the frequency of hotspots substantially rose. Sixty-three hotspots occurred during August–October of 2015 when the area of high hazard classes was above 70%. Through this finding, we proposed to use a 60% area of the catchment with high mKBDI classes as a threshold value indicating that the area is prone to peatland fire. Therefore, the peatland restoration project in preventing the fire could be evaluated using this indicator. If the restoration projects could reduce the area with high mKBDI classes to less than 60% for the whole year, we could accept it as a successful project.

Potential fire risks in South America under anthropogenic forcing hidden by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Fires in South America have profound effects on climate change and air quality. Although anthropogenic forcing has exacerbated drought and fire risks, the fire emissions and aerosol pollution in the southern Amazon and the Pantanal region showed a consistent long-term decrease during the dry season (August-October) between 2003 and 2019. Here, we find that the decreasing trend in fire emissions, mainly located in the non-deforested region, was associated with climatic conditions unfavorable for intensifying and spreading fires, including increased humidity and slower surface wind speed. These climatic trends can be attributed to weakening of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which has strengthened the northeast trade winds within the region (3°S-13°N) and the northwest winds east of the Andes that transport more moisture into the southern Amazon and the Pantanal region. Our findings show the mitigating effects of weakening of the positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase on human-induced intensification of fire risks in South America and warn of potentially increased risks of fires and aerosol pollution under intensified anthropogenic forcing in the future.

Active fires show an increasing elevation trend in the tropical highlands

As an inherent element of the Earth's ecosystem, forest, and vegetation fires are one of the key contributors to and direct consequences of climate change. Given that topography is one of the key drivers of forest landscapes and fire behavior, it is important to clarify what the topographical characteristics and trends of global fire events are, particularly in the tropics. Here, we have investigated the variations in elevation of active fires at the continental to a global scale, including the tropics, the extra-tropics, the lowlands, and the highlands (greater than 200 m above sea level [asl]), using the available MODIS Collection 6 active fire products (2001-2019). The main conclusions are: (1) the annual totality (average of 4.5 million) of global active fire events decreased and over 97% of them occurred frequently below 1500 m asl. (2) The tropics and the highlands accounted for ~74% (±3%) and 71% (±2%) of global active fires, respectively, and 77% (±2%) were observed in the tropical highlands. (3) From the beginning of the 21st century, active fires in the highlands displayed an upward elevational trend, particularly in the tropics, while the opposite trend was observed for the lowlands. More importantly, the rate of the increasing elevation in the highlands had a greater magnitude than that of decreasing elevation in the lowlands. (4) Finally, the United Nations collaborative program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (UN-REDD) in Developing Countries seemed to slow down or even result in a reversal of the upward elevational trend of fire occurrences in the tropics for the partner countries, especially in the lowlands. In the context of global climate change and rampant fires, the trend of rising elevation for active fire occurrences, particularly in the tropical highlands, indicates that more vegetation burning events occur or will occur in hilly to mountainous areas, thus posing further threats to tropical forests and some important biodiversity refuges. More sustained efforts should be made by governments and the scientific community to instigate enhanced fire management practices and to conduct in-depth research programs.

Joint Distribution Analysis of Forest Fires and Precipitation in Response to ENSO, IOD, and MJO (Study Case: Sumatra, Indonesia)

To evaluate the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the occurrence of land and forest fire in Sumatra, copula-based joint distribution analysis and quadrant analysis (for extreme events) were carried out in this research. This research used dry spells (number of days without rain) and precipitation anomalies as climate indicators and hotspots as land and forest fire indicators. Using data spanning from 2001 to 2020, this research shows that ENSO and IOD strongly influence hotspots in Sumatra with monsoonal-type precipitation. Even though the impact is not linear, the probability of a higher number of hotspots occurring increases significantly, especially during strong El Niño and weak El Niño combined with positive IOD. Furthermore, the results show that moderate El Niño has a similar impact to weak El Niño on the affected area, while weak El Niño combined with positive IOD can result in effects similar to robust El Niño impact. Meanwhile, this research has shown that the MJO affects hotspots in the first dry season of Sumatran areas that have equatorial-type precipitation. Although its impact on dry spell–precipitation anomaly dependency is unclear, phases 6,7, and 8 of MJO significantly increase dry spell–hotspot dependency during dry conditions.

Agrarian change, livelihood dynamics and welfare outcomes: Evidence from plantation crop farmers in Indonesia

In the tropical belt of Africa, Asia, and the Americas, smallholder farming is undergoing a significant transformation from subsistence-oriented to highly specialized and market-oriented plantation systems. While understanding the transition of livelihoods of plantation farm households over time is an important development goal, available empirical evidence is scant. This study provides the first quantitative evidence on the dynamics, transitions, and determinants of livelihood strategies linked to the crop choices of commercial farm households in the tropics. We use three-wave panel data of oil palm and rubber farmers from Indonesia for the empirics. Particular emphasis is placed on the trade-offs smallholders face in growing these two crops. Employing the dynamic livelihood strategy framework and Latent Markov Model estimations, we reveal that even highly specialized farm households pursue diversified livelihood strategies, and they actively switch between the identified strategies. Over time, significant changes are observed in the composition of strategies, which continue to be dominated by oil palm-oriented and off-farm-based activities. Inter alia, climate anomalies and a decline in oil palm and rubber prices influence the dynamics and trajectories of the livelihood strategies. We also find that a larger farm size possibly hinders households' labor allocation to more remunerative off-farm activities, implying that possessing a larger farm-land alone may not suffice for improving farmers' wellbeing. We conclude by discussing the generalizability of our findings and providing implications for future research and policymaking.

New land-use-change emissions indicate a declining CO2 airborne fraction

About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere and half are taken up by the land and ocean1. If the carbon uptake by land and ocean sinks becomes less efficient, for example, owing to warming oceans2 or thawing permafrost3, a larger fraction of anthropogenic emissions will remain in the atmosphere, accelerating climate change. Changes in the efficiency of the carbon sinks can be estimated indirectly by analysing trends in the airborne fraction, that is, the ratio between the atmospheric growth rate and anthropogenic emissions of CO2 (refs. 4-10). However, current studies yield conflicting results about trends in the airborne fraction, with emissions related to land use and land cover change (LULCC) contributing the largest source of uncertainty7,11,12. Here we construct a LULCC emissions dataset using visibility data in key deforestation zones. These visibility observations are a proxy for fire emissions13,14, which are - in turn - related to LULCC15,16. Although indirect, this provides a long-term consistent dataset of LULCC emissions, showing that tropical deforestation emissions increased substantially (0.16 Pg C decade-1) since the start of CO2 concentration measurements in 1958. So far, these emissions were thought to be relatively stable, leading to an increasing airborne fraction4,5. Our results, however, indicate that the CO2 airborne fraction has decreased by 0.014 ± 0.010 decade-1 since 1959. This suggests that the combined land-ocean sink has been able to grow at least as fast as anthropogenic emissions.

After the smoke has cleared: Extended low fruit productivity following forest fires decreased gregariousness and social tolerance among wild female Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii)

As climate change continues to fundamentally alter resource landscapes, the ability to flexibly respond to spatio-temporal changes in the distribution of preferred food sources is increasingly important for the overall health and fitness of animals living in seasonal, variable, and/or changing environments. Here, we investigate the effects of an uncharacteristically long period of fruit scarcity, following widespread thick haze caused by peat and forest fires in 2015, on the behaviour and sociality of female Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii). We collected data from 2010 to 2018 at Tuanan, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, and compared the activity, diet, and association patterns of adult females during low-fruit periods before the fires, i.e., regular, seasonal periods of low fruit availability (“pre-fire”), and after the fires, i.e., during the extended period of low fruit availability (“post-fire”). First, we found that, post-fire, female orangutans adopted a more extreme energy-saving activity pattern and diet — resting more, travelling less, and diet-switching to less-preferred foods — compared to pre-fire. Second, we found that the probabilities of association between females and their weaned immature offspring, and between related and unrelated adult females were lower, and the probability of agonism between unrelated females was higher, post-fire than pre-fire. This change in energetic strategy, and the general reduction in gregariousness and social tolerance, demonstrates how forest fires can have lasting consequences for orangutans. Fission–fusion species such as orangutans can mitigate the effects of changes in resource landscapes by altering their (sub)grouping patterns; however, this may have long-term indirect consequences on their fitness.

Assessing costs of Indonesian fires and the benefits of restoring peatland

Deforestation and drainage has made Indonesian peatlands susceptible to burning. Large fires occur regularly, destroying agricultural crops and forest, emitting large amounts of CO₂ and air pollutants, resulting in adverse health effects. In order to reduce fire, the Indonesian government has committed to restore 2.49 Mha of degraded peatland, with an estimated cost of US$3.2-7 billion. Here we combine fire emissions and land cover data to estimate the 2015 fires, the largest in recent years, resulted in economic losses totalling US$28 billion, whilst the six largest fire events between 2004 and 2015 caused a total of US$93.9 billion in economic losses. We estimate that if restoration had already been completed, the area burned in 2015 would have been reduced by 6%, reducing CO₂ emissions by 18%, and PM_2.5 emissions by 24%, preventing 12,000 premature mortalities. Peatland restoration could have resulted in economic savings of US$8.4 billion for 2004-2015, making it a cost-effective strategy for reducing the impacts of peatland fires to the environment, climate and human health.

Identifying Key Drivers of Peatland Fires Across Kalimantan's Ex-Mega Rice Project Using Machine Learning

Throughout Indonesia ecological degradation, agricultural expansion, and the digging of drainage canals has compromised the integrity and functioning of peatland forests. Fragmented landscapes of scrubland, cultivation, degraded forest, and newly established plantations are then susceptible to extensive fires that recur each year. However, a comprehensive understanding of all the drivers of fire distribution and the conditions of initiation is still absent. Here we show the first analysis in the region that encompasses a wide range of driving factors within a single model that captures the inter-annual variation, as well as the spatial distribution of peatland fires. We developed a fire susceptibility model using machine learning (XGBoost random forest) that characterizes the relationships between key predictor variables and the distribution of historic fire locations. We then determined the relative importance of each predictor variable in controlling the initiation and spread of fires. The model included land-cover classifications, a forest clearance index, vegetation indices, drought indices, distances to infrastructure, topography, and peat depth, as well as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The model performance consistently scores highly in both accuracy and precision across all years (>75% and >67.5% respectively), though recall metrics are much lower (>25%). Our results confirm the anthropogenic dependence of extreme fires in the region, with distance to settlements and distance to canals consistently weighted the most important driving factors within the model structure. Our results may help target the root causes of fire initiation and propagation to better construct regulation and rehabilitation efforts to mitigate future fires.

Putting fire on the map of Brazilian savanna ecoregions

The Brazilian savanna (Cerrado) is considered the most floristically diverse savanna in the world, home to more than seven thousand species. The region is a mosaic of savannas, grasslands and forests whose unique biophysical and landscape attributes are on the basis of a recent ecoregional map, paving the way to improved region-based strategies for land management actions. However, as a fire-prone ecosystem, Cerrado owes much of its distribution and ecological properties to the fire regime and contributes to an important parcel of South America burned area. Accordingly, any attempt to use ecoregion geography as a guide for management strategies should take fire into account, as an essential variable. The main aim of this study is to complement the ecoregional map of the Cerrado with information related to the fire component. Using remotely sensed information, we identify patterns and trends of fire frequency, intensity, seasonality, extent and scar size, and combine this information for each ecoregion, relying on a simple classification that summarizes the main fire characteristics over the last two decades. Results show a marked north-south fire activity gradient, with increased contributions from MATOPIBA, the latest agricultural frontier. Five ecoregions alone account for two thirds of yearly burned area. More intense fires are found in the Arc of Deforestation and eastern ecoregions, while ecoregions in MATOPIBA display decreasing fire intensity. An innovative analysis of fire scars stratified by size class shows that infrequent large fires are responsible for the majority of burned area. These large fires display positive trends over many ecoregions, whereas smaller fires, albeit more frequent, have been decreasing in number. The final fire classification scheme shows well defined spatially-aggregated groups, where trends are found to be the key factor to evaluate fire within their regional contexts. Results presented here provide new insights to improve fire management strategies under a changing climate.

Increasing forest fire emissions despite the decline in global burned area

Satellites have detected a global decline in burned area of grassland, coincident with a small increase in burned forest area. These contrasting trends have been reported in earlier literature; however, less is known of their impacts on global fire emission trends due to the scarcity of direct observations. We use an atmospheric inversion system to show that global fire emissions have been stable or slightly decreasing despite the substantial decline in global burned area over the past two decades caused by the carbon dioxide emission increase from forest fires offsetting the decreasing emissions from grass and shrubland fires. Forest fires are larger carbon dioxide sources per unit area burned than grassland fires, with a slow or incomplete follow-up recovery—sometimes no recovery due to degradation and deforestation. With fires expanding over forest areas, the slow recovery of carbon dioxide uptake over burned forest lands weakens land sink capacity, implying positive feedback on climate change.

Smoke Detection from Himawari-8 Satellite Data over Kalimantan Island Using Multilayer Perceptrons

The smoke from biomass burning on Kalimantan Island has caused severe environmental problems in Southeast Asia’s primary burning regions and surrounding regions due to the overspread haze. To monitor the biomass burning aerosol plumes on Kalimantan Island, the high-temporal-resolution Himawari-8 satellite data were used in this study. However, studies are limited on smoke detection using satellite remote sensing for Kalimantan Island because of the difficulty caused by frequently occurring clouds and the lack of prior knowledge on applying traditional threshold methods. In this study, we used the multilayer perceptron (MLP) method to identify smoke over Kalimantan Island in August 2015, one of the most severe fire seasons. To prepare sufficient supervision information, a pixel-level labeled dataset was established based on the Himawari-8 data. Based on the labeled dataset, three MLP approaches and two sampling methods were applied to create training samples. A comparison between the detection results for the MLP approaches and classification tree analysis (i.e., CTA) showed that MLP is superior to CTA. The visualization results also showed that the detected smoke areas included those mixed with clouds. Some detected smoke is difficult to identify by the human eye, suggesting that the explanatory dataset built for this study is sufficiently comprehensive. Therefore, the pixel-level labeled dataset and MLP are suitable for regions that are frequently cloud-covered.

Impact of biomass burnings in Southeast Asia on air quality and pollutant transport during the end of the 2019 dry season

At the end of the dry season, March and April in Southeast Asia (SEA), agricultural refuse burnings occur over the region, mainly in the countries of Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, in preparation for the wet rice plantation. In this study, the impact of biomass burnings at the height of the burning period in March 2019 in mainland SEA on air quality and pollutant transport is modelled using the Weather Research Forecast WRF-Chem air quality model with emission input from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Fire Emission Inventory from NCAR (FINN). FINN is derived from satellite remote sensing data and species emission factors. A simulation of the dispersion of pollutants from biomass burnings from 13 to 19 March 2019, when the burnings was most intense, was performed. Validation of the model prediction using observed meteorological and pollutant data such as AOD measurements on ground from AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) and data from MODIS and CALIPSO satellites is carried out at various sites in the region. The results show that impact on air quality was most pronounced in Thailand and Laos but the effect of biomass burnings in mainland SEA at the end of the dry season is widespread in terms of pollutant dispersion and population exposure over the whole region and beyond. It is also shown that the transport of pollutants from biomass burnings in SEA to southern China, Taiwan and beyond is facilitated by the Truong Son mountain range, when under westerly wind, acting as a launching pad to uplift the pollutant plumes to higher altitude which then can be dispersed widely and transported farther from the biomass burning sources in Thailand and Laos.

Record of North American boreal forest fires in northwest Greenland snow

We present boreal forest fire proxies in a northwest Greenland snowpit spanning a period of six years, from spring 2003 to summer 2009. Levoglucosan (C₆H₁₀O₅) is a specific organic molecular marker of biomass burning caused by boreal forest fires. In this study, levoglucosan was determined via liquid chromatography/negative ion electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry, wherein isotope-dilution and multiple reaction monitoring methods are employed. Ammonium (NH₄⁺) and oxalate (C₂O₄^2-), traditional biomass burning proxies, were determined using two-channel ion chromatography. In the northwest Greenland snowpit, peaks in levoglucosan, ammonium, and oxalate were observed in snow layers corresponding to the summer-fall seasons of 2004 and 2005. Considered together, these spikes are a marker for large boreal forest fires. The levoglucosan deposited in the Greenland snow was strongly dependent on long-range atmospheric transportation. A 10-day backward air mass trajectory analysis supports that the major contributors were air masses from North America. In addition, satellite-derived carbon monoxide (CO) and ammonia (NH₃) concentrations suggest that chemicals from North American boreal forest fires during the summer-fall of 2004 and 2005 were transported to Greenland. However, large boreal fires in Siberia in 2003 and 2008 were not recorded in the snowpit. The sub-annual resolution measurements of levoglucosan and ammonium can distinguish between the contributions of past boreal forest fires and soil emissions from anthropogenic activity to Greenland snow and ice.

How far climatic parameters associated with air quality induced risk state (AQiRS) during COVID-19 persuaded lockdown in India

Global temperature rises in response to accumulating greenhouse gases is a well-debated issue in the present time. Historical records show that greenhouse gases positively influence temperature. Lockdown incident has brought an opportunity to justify the relation between greenhouse gas centric air pollutants and climatic variables considering a concise period. The present work has intended to explore the trend of air quality parameters, and air quality induced risk state since pre to during the lockdown period in reference to India and justifies the influence of pollutant parameters on climatic variables. Results showed that after implementation of lockdown, about 70% area experienced air quality improvement during the lockdown. The hazardous area was reduced from 7.52% to 5.17%. The spatial association between air quality components and climatic variables were not found very strong in all the cases. Still, statistically, a significant relation was observed in the case of surface pressure and moisture. From this, it can be stated that pollutant components can control the climatic components. This study recommends that pollution source management could be a partially good step for bringing climatic resilience of a region.

Investigation of association between smoke haze and under-five mortality in Malaysia, accounting for time lag, duration and intensity

BACKGROUND

Studies on the association between smoke haze (hereafter 'haze') and adverse health effects have increased in recent years due to extreme weather conditions and the increased occurrence of vegetation fires. The possible adverse health effects on under-five children (U5Y) is especially worrying due to their vulnerable condition. Despite continuous repetition of serious haze occurrence in Southeast Asia, epidemiological studies in this region remained scarce. Furthermore, no study had examined the association accounting for three important aspects (time lag, duration and intensity) concurrently.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the association between haze and U5Y mortality in Malaysia, considering time lag, duration and intensity of exposure.

METHODS

We performed a time-stratified case-crossover study using a generalized additive model to examine the U5Y mortality related to haze in 12 districts in Malaysia, spanning from 2014 to 2016. A 'haze day' was characterized by intensity [based on concentrations of particulate matter (PM)] and duration (continuity of haze occurrence, up to 3 days).

RESULTS

We observed the highest but non-significant odds ratios (ORs) of U5Y mortality at lag 4 of Intensity-3. Lag patterns revealed the possibility of higher acuteness at prolonged and intensified haze. Stratifying the districts by the 95th-percentile of PM distribution, the 'low' category demonstrated marginal positive association at Intensity-2 Duration-3 [OR: 1.210 (95% confidence interval: 1.000, 1.464)].

CONCLUSIONS

We found a null association between haze and U5Y mortality. The different lag patterns of the association observed over different duration and intensity suggest consideration of these aspects in future studies.

The effects of climate change on the Pleistocene rock art of Sulawesi

The equatorial tropics house some of the earliest rock art yet known, and it is weathering at an alarming rate. Here we present evidence for haloclasty (salt crystallisation) from Pleistocene-aged rock art panels at 11 sites in the Maros-Pangkep limestone karsts of southern Sulawesi. We show how quickly rock art panels have degraded in recent decades, contending that climate-catalysed salt efflorescence is responsible for increasing exfoliation of the limestone cave surfaces that house the ~ 45 to 20-thousand-year-old paintings. These artworks are located in the world's most atmospherically dynamic region, the Australasian monsoon domain. The rising frequency and severity of El Niño-induced droughts from anthropogenic climate change (that is, higher ambient temperatures and more consecutive dry days), combined with seasonal moisture injected via monsoonal rains retained as standing water in the rice fields and aquaculture ponds of the region, increasingly provide ideal conditions for evaporation and haloclasty, accelerating rock art deterioration.

Personal-Level Protective Actions Against Particulate Matter Air Pollution Exposure: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Since the publication of the last American Heart Association scientific statement on air pollution and cardiovascular disease in 2010, unequivocal evidence of the causal role of fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5, or particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in diameter) in cardiovascular disease has emerged. There is a compelling case to provide the public with practical personalized approaches to reduce the health effects of PM2.5. Such interventions would be applicable not only to individuals in heavily polluted countries, high-risk or susceptible individuals living in cleaner environments, and microenvironments with higher pollution exposures, but also to those traveling to locations with high levels of PM2.5. The overarching motivation for this document is to summarize the current evidence supporting personal-level strategies to prevent the adverse cardiovascular effects of PM2.5, guide the use of the most proven/viable approaches, obviate the use of ineffective measures, and avoid unwarranted interventions. The significance of this statement relates not only to the global importance of PM2.5, but also to its focus on the most tested interventions and viable approaches directed at particulate matter air pollution. The writing group sought to provide expert consensus opinions on personal-level measures recognizing the current uncertainty and limited evidence base for many interventions. In doing so, the writing group acknowledges that its intent is to assist other agencies charged with protecting public health, without minimizing the personal choice considerations of an individual who may decide to use these interventions in the face of ongoing air pollution exposure.

Coastal and estuarine blue carbon stocks in the greater Southeast Asia region: Seagrasses and mangroves per nation and sum of total

Climate Change solutions include CO₂ extraction from atmosphere and water with burial by living habitats in sediment/soil. Nowhere on the planet are blue carbon plants which carry out massive carbon extraction and permanent burial more intensely concentrated than in SE Asia. For the first time we make a national and total inventory of data to date for "blue carbon" buried from mangroves and seagrass and delineate the constraints. For an area across Southeast Asia of approximately 12,000,000 km², supporting mangrove forests (5,116,032 ha) and seagrass meadows (6,744,529 ha), we analyzed the region's current blue carbon stocks. This estimate was achieved by integrating the sum of estuarine in situ carbon stock measurements with the extent of mangroves and seagrass across each nation, then summed for the region. We found that mangroves ecosystems regionally supported the greater amount of organic carbon (3095.19Tg C_org in 1st meter) over that of seagrass (1683.97 Tg C_org in 1st meter), with corresponding stock densities ranging from 15 to 2205 Mg ha^-1 and 31.3 to 2450 Mg ha^-1 respectively, a likely underestimate for entire carbon including sediment depths. The largest carbon stocks are found within Indonesia, followed by the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Myanmar, Malaysia, Thailand, Tropical China, Viet-Nam, and Cambodia. Compared to the blue carbon hotspot of tropical/subtropical Gulf of Mexico's total carbon stock (480.48 Tg Corg), Southeast Asia's greater mangrove-seagrass stock density appears a more intense Blue Carbon hotspot (4778.66 Tg Corg). All regional Southeast Asian nation states should assist in superior preservation and habitat restoration plus similar measures in the USA & Mexico for the Gulf of Mexico, as apparently these form two of the largest tropical carbon sinks within coastal waters. We hypothesize it is SE Asia's regionally unique oceanic-geologic conditions, placed squarely within the tropics, which are largely responsible for this blue carbon hotspot, that is, consistently high ambient light levels and year-long warm temperatures, together with consistently strong inflow of dissolved carbon dioxide and upwelling of nutrients across the shallow geological plates.

Climate exposures and child undernutrition: Evidence from Indonesia

Global climate change has the potential to disrupt agricultural systems, undermine household socioeconomic status, and shape the prevalence and distribution of diseases. Each of these changes may influence children's nutritional status, which is sensitive to food availability, access, and utilization, and which may have lasting consequences for later-life health and socioeconomic outcomes. This paper contributes to the emerging literature on climate and child health by studying the effects of temperature and precipitation exposures on children's height and weight in Indonesia. Drawing on five rounds of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) implemented between 1993 and 2015, we estimate fixed-effects regression models of height-for-age (HFA) and weight-for-height (WFH) among samples of children ages 24-59 months and 0-23 months, respectively. We test for heterogeneity in these effects across sub-populations expected to vary in their vulnerability. Results show that delays in monsoon onset are consistently associated with worse child health outcomes. Delays in monsoon onset during the prenatal period are associated with reduced child height among children age 2-4 years. The weight of young (<2 years) children is adversely affected by delays in the most recent monsoon season, and this relationship is particularly strong among residents of Java. Overall, our results underline the need for interventions that protect children's nutrition and underlying health against the effects of climate change.

El Niño driven haze over the Southern Malaysian Peninsula and Borneo

The Southeast Asian (SEA) region is no stranger to forest fires - the region has been suffering from severe air pollution (known locally as 'haze') as a result of these fires, for decades. The fires in SEA region are caused by a combination of natural (the El Niño weather pattern) and manmade (slash-and-burn and land clearing for plantations) factors. These fires cause the emissions of toxic aerosols and pollutants that can affect millions of people in the region. Thus, this study aims to identify the impact of the SEA haze on the Southern region of the Malaysian Peninsula and Borneo region of East Malaysia using the entire air quality observation data at surface level in 2015. Overall, the concentration of PM₁₀ was about two-fold higher during the haze period compared to non-haze period. The concentrations of CO, flux of CO and flux of BC were aligned with PM₁₀ during the entire observation period. The wind field and cluster of trajectory indicated that the Southern Malaysian Peninsula and Borneo were influenced mainly from the wildfires and the combustion of peat soil in the Indonesian Borneo. This study finds that wildfires from Borneo impacted the Southern Malaysian Borneo more seriously than that from Sumatra region.

Drainage increases CO2 and N2 O emissions from tropical peat soils

Tropical peatlands are vital ecosystems that play an important role in global carbon storage and cycles. Current estimates of greenhouse gases from these peatlands are uncertain as emissions vary with environmental conditions. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of managed and natural tropical peatland GHG fluxes: heterotrophic (i.e. soil respiration without roots), total CO₂ respiration rates, CH₄ and N₂ O fluxes. The study documents studies that measure GHG fluxes from the soil (n = 372) from various land uses, groundwater levels and environmental conditions. We found that total soil respiration was larger in managed peat ecosystems (median = 52.3 Mg CO₂  ha^-1  year^-1 ) than in natural forest (median = 35.9 Mg CO₂  ha^-1  year^-1 ). Groundwater level had a stronger effect on soil CO₂ emission than land use. Every 100 mm drop of groundwater level caused an increase of 5.1 and 3.7 Mg CO₂  ha^-1  year^-1 for plantation and cropping land use, respectively. Where groundwater is deep (≥0.5 m), heterotrophic respiration constituted 84% of the total emissions. N₂ O emissions were significantly larger at deeper groundwater levels, where every drop in 100 mm of groundwater level resulted in an exponential emission increase (exp(0.7) kg N ha^-1  year^-1 ). Deeper groundwater levels induced high N₂ O emissions, which constitute about 15% of total GHG emissions. CH₄ emissions were large where groundwater is shallow; however, they were substantially smaller than other GHG emissions. When compared to temperate and boreal peatland soils, tropical peatlands had, on average, double the CO₂ emissions. Surprisingly, the CO₂ emission rates in tropical peatlands were in the same magnitude as tropical mineral soils. This comprehensive analysis provides a great understanding of the GHG dynamics within tropical peat soils that can be used as a guide for policymakers to create suitable programmes to manage the sustainability of peatlands effectively.

A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Active Fires over China during 2003–2016

Fire is a common circumstance in the world. It causes direct casualties and economic losses, and also brings severe negative influences on the atmospheric environment. In the background of climate warming and rising population, it is important to understand the fire responses regarding the spatio-temporal changes. Thus, a long-term change analysis of fires is needed in China. We use the remote sensed MOD14A1/MYD14A1 fire products to analyze the seasonal variations and long-term trends, based on five main land cover types (forest, cropland, grassland, savannas and urban areas). The fires are found to have clear seasonal variations; there are more fires in spring and autumn in vegetated lands, which are related to the amount of dry biomass and temperature. The fire numbers have significantly increased during the study period, especially from spring to autumn, and those have decreased in winter. The long-term fire trends are different when delineated into different land cover types. There are significant increasing fire trends in grasslands and croplands in North, East and Northeast China during the study period. The urban fires also show increasing trends. On the contrary, there are significant decreasing fire trends in forests and savannas in South China where it is most densely vegetated. This study provides an overall analysis of the spatio-temporal fire changes from satellite products, and it may help to understand the fire risk in the changing climate for a better risk management.

Impact of biomass burning on a metropolitan area in the Amazon during the 2015 El Niño: The enhancement of carbon monoxide and levoglucosan concentrations

Extreme droughts associated with changes in the climate have occurred every 5 years in the Amazon during the 21st century, with the most severe being in 2015. The increase in biomass burning (BB) events that occurred during the 2015 drought had several negative socioeconomic and environmental impacts, one of which was a decrease in the air quality. This study is an investigation into the air quality in the Manaus Metropolitan Region (MMR) (central Amazon, Brazil) during the dry (September to October) and wet (April to May) seasons of 2015 and 2016. A strong El Niño event began during the wet season of 2015 and ended during the wet season of 2016. Particulate matter samples were collected in the MMR during 2015 and 2016, and analyses of the satellite-estimated total carbon monoxide (CO) column and observed levoglucosan concentrations were carried out. Levoglucosan has been shown to be significantly correlated with regional fires and is a well-established chemical tracer for the atmospheric particulates emitted by BB, and CO can be treated as a gaseous-phase tracer for BB. The number of BB events increased significantly during the El Niño period when compared to the average number during 2003-2016. Consequently, the total CO column and levoglucosan concentration values in the MMR increased by 15% and 500%, respectively, when compared to the normal conditions. These results indicate that during the period that was analyzed, the impacts of BB were exacerbated during the strong El Niño event as compared to the non-El Niño period. In this study, we provided evidence that the air quality in the MMR will degrade in the future if droughts and BB occurrences continue to increase.

Occurrence frequencies and regional variations in Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) global active fires

Active fires are considered to be the key contributor to, and critical consequence of, climate change. Quantifying the occurrence frequency and regional variations in global active fires is significant for assessing carbon cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and postfire ecological effects. Multiscale variations in fire occurrence frequencies have still never been fully investigated despite free access to global active fire products. We analyzed the occurrence frequencies of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) active fires at national, pan-regional (tropics and extratropics) to global scales and at hourly, monthly, and annual scales during 2012-2017. The results revealed that the accumulated occurrence frequencies of VIIRS global active fires were up to 12,193 × 10⁴ , yet exhibiting slight fluctuations annually and with respect to the 2014-2016 El Niño event, especially during 2015. About 35.52% of VIIRS active fires occurred from July to September, particularly in August (13.06%), and typically between 10:00 and 13:00 Greenwich Mean Time (GMT; 42.96%) and especially at 11:00 GMT (17.65%). The total counts conform to a bimodal pattern with peaks in 5°-11°N (18.01%) and 5°-18°S (32.46%), respectively, alongside a unimodal distribution in terms of longitudes between 15°E and 30°E (32.34%). Tropical annual average of active fire (1,496.81 × 10⁴ ) accounted for 75.83%. Nearly 30% were counted in Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, and Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA). Fires typically occurred between June (or August) and October (or November) with far below-average rainfall in these countries, while those in MSEA primarily occurred between February and April during the dry season. They were primarily observed between 00:00 and 02:00 GMT, between 12:00 and 14:00 within each Zone Time. We believed that VIIRS global active fires products are useful for developing fire detection algorithms, discriminating occurrence types and ignition causes via correlation analyses with physical geographic elements, and assessment of their potential impacts.

Effects of distance from canal and degradation history on peat bulk density in a degraded tropical peatland

Over recent decades, the combination of deforestation, peat drainage and fires have resulted in widespread degradation of Southeast Asia's tropical peatlands. These disturbances are generally thought to increase peat soil bulk density through peat drying and shrinkage, compaction, and consolidation. Biological oxidation and fires burning across these landscapes also consume surface peat, exposing older peat strata. The prevalence and severity of deforestation, peat drainage and fire are typically greater closer to canals, built to drain peatlands and provide access routes for people. We compared bulk densities of 240cm peat profiles from intact forests and degraded peatlands broadly, and also assessed differences between degraded peatlands near-to-canals (50-200m from the nearest canal) and far-from-canals (300+ m from the nearest canal). The effects of vegetation type and fire frequency on bulk density, irrespective of the distance from canal, were also investigated. Mean bulk density values ranged between 0.08 and 0.16gcm^-3 throughout the 240cm peat profiles. Drainage of peat near-to-canals increased bulk density of peat above the minimum water table depth. Degradation by deforestation and fire also increased bulk densities of upper peat strata, albeit with greater variability. Peat sampled further from canals experienced less intense water table drawdowns, buffering them from drainage effects. These areas were also more commonly forested and burnt less frequently. Differences in bulk densities below minimum water table levels are less clear, but may reflect lowering of the current peat surface in degraded peatlands broadly. These results clearly show that important differences in bulk density exist across degraded peatlands that are spatially dependent on distance from canals and disturbance history. These landscape features should be taken into account when designing future bulk density sampling efforts and peatland restoration programs, or when extrapolating from existing sources in order to make accurate inferences from them.

The Uncharacteristic Occurrence of the June 2013 Biomass-Burning Haze Event in Southeast Asia: Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Activity

One of the worst haze events to ever hit Peninsular Malaysia occurred in June 2013 due to smoke from Riau, Central Sumatra. While biomass-burning in the region is common, the early occurrence of a haze episode of this magnitude was uncharacteristic of the seasonality of extreme fire events, which usually occur between August and October in the Maritime Continent (MC). This study aims to investigate the phenomenology of the June 2013 haze event and its underlying meteorological forcing agents. The aerosol and meteorological environment during the event is examined using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire hotspot detections and aerosol optical thickness retrievals, satellite-based precipitation retrievals, and meteorological indices. These datasets are then supported by a WRF-Chem simulation to provide a comprehensive picture of the event’s meteorology and aerosol transport phenomenology. While extreme fire events are more characteristic of El Nino years, the MODIS fire count over the MC in June for the years 2001–2015 was highest in 2013 when neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevailed. Although, the mean daily precipitation for June 2013 was below average for June 2003–2015. An early active tropical cyclone (TC) season occurred in 2013, and results show that the combined induced subsidence and flow enhancement due to TC Bebinca and the dry phases of a strong Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) event contributed to the event intensification. Results also show that Bebinca induced a decrease in surface relative humidity of at least 10% over Riau, where fire hotspots were concentrated.

Interannual variability and trends of combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflows revealed by MODIS retrievals and CAM5 simulations during 2003-2017

Emissions and long-range transport of mineral dust and combustion-related aerosol from burning fossil fuels and biomass vary from year to year, driven by the evolution of the economy and changes in meteorological conditions and environmental regulations. This study offers both satellite and model perspectives on the interannual variability and possible trends of combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflow regions over the past 15 years (2003-2017). The decade-long record of aerosol optical depth (AOD, denoted as τ), separately for combustion aerosol (τ _c) and dust (τ _d), over global oceans is derived from the Collection 6 aerosol products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard both Terra and Aqua. These MODIS Aqua datasets, complemented by aerosol source-tagged simulations using the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5), are then analyzed to understand the interannual variability and potential trends of τ _c and τ _d in the major continental outflows. Both MODIS and CAM5 consistently yield a similar decreasing trend of -0.017 to -0.020 per decade for τ _c over the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea that is attributable to reduced emissions from North America and Europe, respectively. On the contrary, both MODIS and CAM5 display an increasing trend of +0.017 to +0.036 per decade for τ _c over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea, which reflects the influence of increased anthropogenic emissions from South Asia and the Middle East in the last 2 decades. Over the northwestern Pacific Ocean, which is often affected by East Asian emissions of pollution and dust, the MODIS retrievals show a decreasing trend of -0.021 per decade for τ _c and -0.012 per decade for τ _d, which is, however, not reproduced by the CAM5 model. In other outflow regions strongly influenced by biomass burning smoke or dust, both MODIS retrievals and CAM5 simulations show no statistically significant trends; the MODIS-observed interannual variability is usually larger than that of the CAM5 simulation.