Productivity, biodiversity, and pathogens influence the global hunter-gatherer population density

The evolving three-dimensional landscape of human adaptation

Over the past 3 million years, humans have expanded their ecological niche and adapted to more diverse environments. The temporal evolution and underlying drivers behind this niche expansion remain largely unknown. By combining archeological findings with landscape topographic data and model simulations of the climate and biomes, we show that human sites clustered in areas with increased terrain roughness, corresponding to higher levels of biodiversity. We find a gradual increase in human habitat preferences toward rough terrains until about 1.1 million years ago (Ma), followed by a 300 thousand-year-long contraction of the ecological niche. This period coincided with the Mid-Pleistocene Transition and previously hypothesized ancestral population bottlenecks. Our statistical analysis further reveals that from 0.8 Ma onward, the human niche expanded again, with human species (e.g., H. heidelbergensis, H. neanderthalensis, and H. sapiens) adapting to rougher terrain, colder and drier conditions, and toward regions of higher ecological diversity.

A model of long-term population growth with an application to Central West Argentina

We propose an Ideal Specialization Model to help explain the diversity of population growth trajectories exhibited across archaeological regions over thousands of years. The model provides a general set of expectations useful for guiding empirical research, and we provide a concrete example by conducting a preliminary evaluation of three expectations in Central West Argentina. We use kernel density estimates of archaeological radiocarbon, estimates of paleoclimate, and human bone stable isotopes from archaeological remains to evaluate three expectations drawn from the model's dynamics. Based on our results, we suggest that innovations in the production of food and social organization drove demographic transitions and population expansion in the region. The consistency of population expansion in the region positively associates with changes in diet and, potentially, innovations in settlement and social integration.

Demographic models predict end-Pleistocene arrival and rapid expansion of pre-agropastoralist humans in Cyprus

The antiquity of human dispersal into Mediterranean islands and ensuing coastal adaptation have remained largely unexplored due to the prevailing assumption that the sea was a barrier to movement and that islands were hostile environments to early hunter-gatherers [J. F. Cherry, T. P. Leppard, J. Isl. Coast. Archaeol. 13, 191-205 (2018), 10.1080/15564894.2016.1276489]. Using the latest archaeological data, hindcasted climate projections, and age-structured demographic models, we demonstrate evidence for early arrival (14,257 to 13,182 calendar years ago) to Cyprus and predicted that large groups of people (~1,000 to 1,375) arrived in 2 to 3 main events occurring within <100 y to ensure low extinction risk. These results indicate that the postglacial settlement of Cyprus involved only a few large-scale, organized events requiring advanced watercraft technology. Our spatially debiased and Signor-Lipps-corrected estimates indicate rapid settlement of the island within <200 y, and expansion to a median of 4,000 to 5,000 people (0.36 to 0.46 km-2) in <11 human generations (<300 y). Our results do not support the hypothesis of inaccessible and inhospitable islands in the Mediterranean for pre-agropastoralists, agreeing with analogous conclusions for other parts of the world [M. I. Bird et al., Sci. Rep. 9, 8220 (2019), 10.1038/s41598-019-42946-9]. Our results also highlight the need to revisit these questions in the Mediterranean and test their validity with new technologies, field methods, and data. By applying stochastic models to the Mediterranean region, we can place Cyprus and large islands in general as attractive and favorable destinations for paleolithic peoples.

Physiography, foraging mobility, and the first peopling of Sahul

The route and speed of migration into Sahul by Homo sapiens remain a major research question in archaeology. Here, we introduce an approach which models the impact of the physical environment on human mobility by combining time-evolving landscapes with Lévy walk foraging patterns, this latter accounting for a combination of short-distance steps and occasional longer moves that hunter-gatherers likely utilised for efficient exploration of new environments. Our results suggest a wave of dispersal radiating across Sahul following riverine corridors and coastlines. Estimated migration speeds, based on archaeological sites and predicted travelled distances, fall within previously reported range from Sahul and other regions. From our mechanistic movement simulations, we then analyse the likelihood of archaeological sites and highlight areas in Australia that hold archaeological potential. Our approach complements existing methods and provides interesting perspectives on the Pleistocene archaeology of Sahul that could be applied to other regions around the world.

Infectious disease in the Pleistocene: Old friends or old foes?

The impact of endemic and epidemic disease on humans has traditionally been seen as a comparatively recent historical phenomenon associated with the Neolithisation of human groups, an increase in population size led by sedentarism, and increasing contact with domesticated animals as well as species occupying opportunistic symbiotic and ectosymbiotic relationships with humans. The orthodox approach is that Neolithisation created the conditions for increasing population size able to support a reservoir of infectious disease sufficient to act as selective pressure. This orthodoxy is the result of an overly simplistic reliance on skeletal data assuming that no skeletal lesions equated to a healthy individual, underpinned by the assumption that hunter-gatherer groups were inherently healthy while agricultural groups acted as infectious disease reservoirs. The work of van Blerkom, Am. J. Phys. Anthropol., vol. suppl 37 (2003), Wolfe et al., Nature, vol. 447 (2007) and Houldcroft and Underdown, Am. J. Phys. Anthropol., vol. 160, (2016) has changed this landscape by arguing that humans and pathogens have long been fellow travelers. The package of infectious diseases experienced by our ancient ancestors may not be as dissimilar to modern infectious diseases as was once believed. The importance of DNA, from ancient and modern sources, to the study of the antiquity of infectious disease, and its role as a selective pressure cannot be overstated. Here we consider evidence of ancient epidemic and endemic infectious diseases with inferences from modern and ancient human and hominin DNA, and from circulating and extinct pathogen genomes. We argue that the pandemics of the past are a vital tool to unlock the weapons needed to fight pandemics of the future.

Why did foraging, horticulture and pastoralism persist after the Neolithic transition? The oasis theory of agricultural intensification

Despite the global spread of intensive agriculture, many populations retained foraging or mixed subsistence strategies until well into the twentieth century. Understanding why has been a longstanding puzzle. One explanation, called the marginal habitat hypothesis, is that foraging persisted because foragers tended to live in marginal habitats generally not suited to agriculture. However, recent empirical studies have not supported this view. The alternative but untested oasis hypothesis of agricultural intensification claims that intensive agriculture developed in areas with low biodiversity and a reliable water source not reliant on local rainfall. We test both the marginal habitat and oasis hypotheses using a cross-cultural sample drawn from the 'Ethnographic atlas' (Murdock 1967 Ethnology 6, 109-236). Our analyses provide support for both hypotheses. We found that intensive agriculture was unlikely in areas with high rainfall. Further, high biodiversity, including pathogens associated with high rainfall, appears to have limited the development of intensive agriculture. Our analyses of African societies show that tsetse flies, elephants and malaria are negatively associated with intensive agriculture, but only the effect of tsetse flies reached significance. Our results suggest that in certain ecologies intensive agriculture may be difficult or impossible to develop but that generally lower rainfall and biodiversity is favourable for its emergence. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolutionary ecology of inequality'.

Human adaptation to diverse biomes over the past 3 million years

To investigate the role of vegetation and ecosystem diversity on hominin adaptation and migration, we identify past human habitat preferences over time using a transient 3-million-year earth system-biome model simulation and an extensive hominin fossil and archaeological database. Our analysis shows that early African hominins predominantly lived in open environments such as grassland and dry shrubland. Migrating into Eurasia, hominins adapted to a broader range of biomes over time. By linking the location and age of hominin sites with corresponding simulated regional biomes, we also find that our ancestors actively selected for spatially diverse environments. The quantitative results lead to a new diversity hypothesis: Homo species, in particular Homo sapiens, were specially equipped to adapt to landscape mosaics.

Homo medicus: The transition to meat eating increased pathogen pressure and the use of pharmacological plants in Homo

The human lineage transitioned to a more carnivorous niche 2.6 mya and evolved a large body size and slower life history, which likely increased zoonotic pathogen pressure. Evidence for this increase includes increased zoonotic infections in modern hunter-gatherers and bushmeat hunters, exceptionally low stomach pH compared to other primates, and divergence in immune-related genes. These all point to change, and probably intensification, in the infectious disease environment of Homo compared to earlier hominins and other apes. At the same time, the brain, an organ in which immune responses are constrained, began to triple in size. We propose that the combination of increased zoonotic pathogen pressure and the challenges of defending a large brain and body from pathogens in a long-lived mammal, selected for intensification of the plant-based self-medication strategies already in place in apes and other primates. In support, there is evidence of medicinal plant use by hominins in the middle Paleolithic, and all cultures today have sophisticated, plant-based medical systems, add spices to food, and regularly consume psychoactive plant substances that are harmful to helminths and other pathogens. We propose that the computational challenges of discovering effective plant-based treatments, the consequent ability to consume more energy-rich animal foods, and the reduced reliance on energetically-costly immune responses helped select for increased cognitive abilities and unique exchange relationships in Homo. In the story of human evolution, which has long emphasized hunting skills, medical skills had an equal role to play.

Changes in limiting factors for forager population dynamics in Europe across the last glacial-interglacial transition

Population dynamics set the framework for human genetic and cultural evolution. For foragers, demographic and environmental changes correlate strongly, although the causal relations between different environmental variables and human responses through time and space likely varied. Building on the notion of limiting factors, namely that at any one time, the scarcest resource caps population size, we present a statistical approach to identify the dominant climatic constraints for hunter-gatherer population densities and then hindcast their changing dynamics in Europe for the period between 21,000 to 8000 years ago. Limiting factors shifted from temperature-related variables (effective temperature) during the Pleistocene to a regional mosaic of limiting factors in the Holocene dominated by temperature seasonality and annual precipitation. This spatiotemporal variation suggests that hunter-gatherers needed to overcome very different adaptive challenges in different parts of Europe and that these challenges varied over time. The signatures of these changing adaptations may be visible archaeologically. In addition, the spatial disaggregation of limiting factors from the Pleistocene to the Holocene coincided with and may partly explain the diversification of the cultural geography at this time.

Association between averaged meteorological factors and tuberculosis risk: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Inconsistencies were discovered in the findings regarding the effects of meteorological factors on tuberculosis (TB). This study conducted a systematic review of published studies on the relationship between TB and meteorological factors and used a meta-analysis to investigate the pooled effects in order to provide evidence for future research and policymakers. The literature search was completed by August 3rd, 2021, using three databases: PubMed, Web of Science and Embase. Relative risks (RRs) in included studies were extracted and all effect estimates were combined together using meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were carried out based on the resolution of exposure time, regional climate, and national income level. A total of eight studies were included after screening for inclusion and exclusion criteria. Our results show that TB risk was positively correlated with precipitation (RR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.51), while temperature (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.32), humidity (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.10), air pressure (RR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.69, 1.14) and sunshine duration (RR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.80, 1.13) all had no statistically significant correlation. Subgroup analysis shows that quarterly measure resolution, low and middle Human Development Index (HDI) level and subtropical climate increase TB risk not only in precipitation, but also in temperature and humidity. Moreover, less heterogeneity was observed in "high and extremely high" HDI areas and subtropical areas than that in other subgroups (I² = 0%). Precipitation, a subtropical climate, and a low HDI level are all positive influence factors to tuberculosis. Therefore, residents and public health managers should take precautionary measures ahead of time, especially in extreme weather conditions.

Human populations in the world’s mountains: Spatio-temporal patterns and potential controls

Changing climate and human demographics in the world’s mountains will have increasingly profound environmental and societal consequences across all elevations. Quantifying current human populations in and near mountains is crucial to ensure that any interventions in these complex social-ecological systems are appropriately resourced, and that valuable ecosystems are effectively protected. However, comprehensive and reproducible analyses on this subject are lacking. Here, we develop and implement an open workflow to quantify the sensitivity of mountain population estimates over recent decades, both globally and for several sets of relevant reporting regions, to alternative input dataset combinations. Relationships between mean population density and several potential environmental covariates are also explored across elevational bands within individual mountain regions (i.e. “sub-mountain range scale”). Globally, mountain population estimates vary greatly—from 0.344 billion (<5% of the corresponding global total) to 2.289 billion (>31%) in 2015. A more detailed analysis using one of the population datasets (GHS-POP) revealed that in ∼35% of mountain sub-regions, population increased at least twofold over the 40-year period 1975–2015. The urban proportion of the total mountain population in 2015 ranged from 6% to 39%, depending on the combination of population and urban extent datasets used. At sub-mountain range scale, population density was found to be more strongly associated with climatic than with topographic and protected-area variables, and these relationships appear to have strengthened slightly over time. Such insights may contribute to improved predictions of future mountain population distributions under scenarios of future climatic and demographic change. Overall, our work emphasizes that irrespective of data choices, substantial human populations are likely to be directly affected by—and themselves affect—mountainous environmental and ecological change. It thereby further underlines the urgency with which the multitudinous challenges concerning the interactions between mountain climate and human societies under change must be tackled.

Long-term unsustainable patterns of development rather than recent deforestation caused the emergence of Orthocoronavirinae species

We investigated whether a set of phylogeographical tracked emergent events of Orthocoronavirinae were related to developed, urban and polluted environments worldwide. We explored coronavirus records in response to climate (rainfall parameters), population density, CO₂ emission, Human Developmental Index (HDI) and deforestation. We contrasted environmental characteristics from regions with spillovers or encounters of wild Orthocoronavirinae against adjacent areas having best-preserved conditions. We used all complete sequenced CoVs genomes deposited in NCBI and GISAID databases until January 2021. Except for Deltacoronavirus, concentrated in Hong Kong and in birds, the other three genera were scattered all over the planet, beyond the original distribution of the subfamily, and found in humans, mammals, fishes and birds, wild or domestic. Spillovers and presence in wild animals were only reported in developed/densely populated places. We found significantly more occurrences reported in places with higher HDI, CO₂ emission, or population density, along with more rainfall and more accentuated seasonality. Orthocoronavirinae occurred in areas with significantly higher human populations, CO₂ emissions and deforestation rates than in adjacent locations. Intermediately disturbed ecosystems seemed more vulnerable for Orthocoronavirinae emergence than forested regions in frontiers of deforestation. Sadly, people experiencing poverty in an intensely consumerist society are the most vulnerable.

Climate variability and aridity modulate the role of leaf shelters for arthropods: A global experiment

Current climate change is disrupting biotic interactions and eroding biodiversity worldwide. However, species sensitive to aridity, high temperatures, and climate variability might find shelter in microclimatic refuges, such as leaf rolls built by arthropods. To explore how the importance of leaf shelters for terrestrial arthropods changes with latitude, elevation, and climate, we conducted a distributed experiment comparing arthropods in leaf rolls versus control leaves across 52 sites along an 11,790 km latitudinal gradient. We then probed the impact of short- versus long-term climatic impacts on roll use, by comparing the relative impact of conditions during the experiment versus average, baseline conditions at the site. Leaf shelters supported larger organisms and higher arthropod biomass and species diversity than non-rolled control leaves. However, the magnitude of the leaf rolls' effect differed between long- and short-term climate conditions, metrics (species richness, biomass, and body size), and trophic groups (predators vs. herbivores). The effect of leaf rolls on predator richness was influenced only by baseline climate, increasing in magnitude in regions experiencing increased long-term aridity, regardless of latitude, elevation, and weather during the experiment. This suggests that shelter use by predators may be innate, and thus, driven by natural selection. In contrast, the effect of leaf rolls on predator biomass and predator body size decreased with increasing temperature, and increased with increasing precipitation, respectively, during the experiment. The magnitude of shelter usage by herbivores increased with the abundance of predators and decreased with increasing temperature during the experiment. Taken together, these results highlight that leaf roll use may have both proximal and ultimate causes. Projected increases in climate variability and aridity are, therefore, likely to increase the importance of biotic refugia in mitigating the effects of climate change on species persistence.

Sustainable human population density in Western Europe between 560.000 and 360.000 years ago

The time period between 560 and 360 ka (MIS14 to MIS11) was critical for the evolution of the Neanderthal lineage and the appearance of Levallois technology in Europe. The shifts in the distribution of the human populations, driven by cyclical climate changes, are generally accepted to have played major roles in both processes. We used a dataset of palaeoclimate maps and a species distribution model to reconstruct the changes in the area of Western Europe with suitable environmental conditions for humans during 11 time intervals of the MIS14 to MIS 11 period. Eventually, the maximum sustainable human population within the suitable area during each time interval was estimated by extrapolating the relationship observed between recent hunter-gatherer population density and net primary productivity and applying it to the past. Contrary to common assumptions, our results showed the three Mediterranean Peninsulas were not the only region suitable for humans during the glacial periods. The estimated total sustainable population of Western Europe from MIS14 to MIS11 oscillated between 13,000 and 25,000 individuals. These results offer a new theoretical scenario to develop models and hypotheses to explain cultural and biological evolution during the Middle Pleistocene in Western Europe.

A Fusion Method for Multisource Land Cover Products Based on Superpixels and Statistical Extraction for Enhancing Resolution and Improving Accuracy

The discrepancies in existing land cover data are relatively high, indicating low local precision and application limitations. Multisource data fusion is an effective way to solve this problem; however, the fusion procedure often requires resampling to unify the spatial resolution, causing a lower spatial resolution. To solve this problem, this study proposes a multisource product fusion mapping method of filtering training samples and product correction at a fine resolution. Based on the Superpixel algorithm, principal component analysis (PCA), and statistical extraction techniques, combined with the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, reliable land cover data were acquired. GEE and machine-learning algorithms correct the unreliable information of multiple products into a new land cover fusion result. Compared to the common method of extracting consistent pixels from existing products, our proposed method effectively removes nearly 38.75% of them, with a high probability of classification error. The overall accuracy of fusion in this study reached 85.80%, and the kappa coefficient reached 0.82, with an overall accuracy improvement of 11.75–24.17% and a kappa coefficient improvement of 0.16 to 0.3 compared to other products. For existing single-category products, we corrected the phenomenon of overinterpretation in inconsistent areas; the overall accuracy improvement ranged from 2.99% to 20.71%, while the kappa coefficient improvement ranged from 0.22 to 0.56. Thus, our proposed method can combine information from multiple products and serve as an effective method for large areas and even as a global land cover fusion product.

Plant-Based Support of Respiratory Health during Viral Outbreaks

Respiratory viruses are linked to major epidemic events that have plagued humans through recorded history and possibly much earlier, ranging from common colds, influenza, and coronavirus infections to measles. However, difficulty in developing effective pharmaceutical solutions to treat infected individuals has hindered efforts to manage and minimize respiratory viral outbreaks and the associated mortality. Here we highlight a series of botanical interventions with different and often overlapping putative mechanisms of action to support the respiratory system, for which the bioactive pharmacophore was suggested and the initial structure-activity relationships have been explored (Bupleurum spp., Glycyrrhiza spp., Andrographis spp.), have been proposed with uncertainty (Echinacea spp., Zingiber spp., Verbascum spp., Marrubium spp.), or remained to be elucidated (Sambucus spp., Urtica spp.). Investigating these metabolites and their botanical sources holds potential to uncover new mediators of the respiratory health outcomes as well as molecular targets for future break-through therapeutic interventions targeting respiratory viral outbreaks.

Is there still evolution in the human population?

It is often claimed that humanity has stopped evolving because modern medicine erased all selection on survival. Even if that would be true, and it is not, there would be other mechanisms of evolution which could still led to changes in allelic frequencies. Here I show, by applying basic evolutionary genetics knowledge, that we expect humanity to evolve. The results from genome sequencing projects have repeatedly affirmed that there are still recent signs of selection in our genomes. I give some examples of such adaptation. Then I briefly discuss what our evolutionary future has in store for us.

Gains and Losses of Agricultural Food Production: Implications for the Twenty-First Century

The world food supply depends on a diminishing list of plant crops and animal livestock to not only feed the ever-growing human population but also improve its nutritional state and lower the disease burden. Over the past century or so, technological advances in agricultural and food processing have helped reduce hunger and poverty but have not adequately addressed sustainability targets. This has led to an erosion of agricultural biodiversity and balanced diets and contributed to climate change and rising rates of chronic metabolic diseases. Modern food supply chains have progressively lost dietary fiber, complex carbohydrates, micronutrients, and several classes of phytochemicals with high bioactivity and nutritional relevance. This review introduces the concept of agricultural food systems losses and focuses on improved sources of agricultural diversity, proteins with enhanced resilience, and novel monitoring, processing, and distribution technologies that are poised to improve food security, reduce food loss and waste, and improve health profiles in the near future. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Food Science and Technology, Volume 13 is March 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Global hunter-gatherer population densities constrained by influence of seasonality on diet composition

The dependence of hunter-gatherers on local net primary production (NPP) to provide food played a major role in shaping long-term human population dynamics. Observations of contemporary hunter-gatherers have shown an overall correlation between population density and annual NPP but with a 1,000-fold variation in population density per unit NPP that remains unexplained. Here, we build a process-based hunter-gatherer population model embedded within a global terrestrial biosphere model, which explicitly addresses the extraction of NPP through dynamically allocated hunting and gathering activities. The emergent results reveal a strong, previously unrecognized effect of seasonality on population density via diet composition, whereby hunter-gatherers consume high fractions of meat in regions where growing seasons are short, leading to greatly reduced population density due to trophic inefficiency. This seasonal carnivory bottleneck largely explains the wide variation in population density per unit NPP and questions the prevailing usage of annual NPP as the proxy of carrying capacity for ancient humans. Our process-based approach has the potential to greatly refine our understanding of dynamical responses of ancient human populations to past environmental changes.

Climatic windows for human migration out of Africa in the past 300,000 years

Whilst an African origin of modern humans is well established, the timings and routes of their expansions into Eurasia are the subject of heated debate, due to the scarcity of fossils and the lack of suitably old ancient DNA. Here, we use high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions to estimate how difficult it would have been for humans in terms of rainfall availability to leave the African continent in the past 300k years. We then combine these results with an anthropologically and ecologically motivated estimate of the minimum level of rainfall required by hunter-gatherers to survive, allowing us to reconstruct when, and along which geographic paths, expansions out of Africa would have been climatically feasible. The estimated timings and routes of potential contact with Eurasia are compatible with archaeological and genetic evidence of human expansions out of Africa, highlighting the key role of palaeoclimate variability for modern human dispersals.

Stochastic models support rapid peopling of Late Pleistocene Sahul

The peopling of Sahul (the combined continent of Australia and New Guinea) represents the earliest continental migration and settlement event of solely anatomically modern humans, but its patterns and ecological drivers remain largely conceptual in the current literature. We present an advanced stochastic-ecological model to test the relative support for scenarios describing where and when the first humans entered Sahul, and their most probable routes of early settlement. The model supports a dominant entry via the northwest Sahul Shelf first, potentially followed by a second entry through New Guinea, with initial entry most consistent with 50,000 or 75,000 years ago based on comparison with bias-corrected archaeological map layers. The model's emergent properties predict that peopling of the entire continent occurred rapidly across all ecological environments within 156-208 human generations (4368-5599 years) and at a plausible rate of 0.71-0.92 km year-1. More broadly, our methods and approaches can readily inform other global migration debates, with results supporting an exit of anatomically modern humans from Africa 63,000-90,000 years ago, and the peopling of Eurasia in as little as 12,000-15,000 years via inland routes.

Ecological variation and institutionalized inequality in hunter-gatherer societies

Research examining institutionalized hierarchy tends to focus on chiefdoms and states, while its emergence among small-scale societies remains poorly understood. Here, we test multiple hypotheses for institutionalized hierarchy, using environmental and social data on 89 hunter-gatherer societies along the Pacific coast of North America. We utilize statistical models capable of identifying the main correlates of sustained political and economic inequality, while controlling for historical and spatial dependence. Our results indicate that the most important predictors relate to spatiotemporal distribution of resources. Specifically, higher reliance on and ownership of clumped aquatic (primarily salmon) versus wild plant resources is associated with greater political-economic inequality, measuring the latter as a composite of internal social ranking, unequal access to food resources, and presence of slavery. Variables indexing population pressure, scalar stress, and intergroup conflict exhibit little or no correlation with variation in inequality. These results are consistent with models positing that hierarchy will emerge when individuals or coalitions (e.g., kin groups) control access to economically defensible, highly clumped resource patches, and use this control to extract benefits from subordinates, such as productive labor and political allegiance in a patron-client system. This evolutionary ecological explanation might illuminate how and why institutionalized hierarchy emerges among many small-scale societies.

Island Colonization and Environmental Sustainability in the Postglacial Mediterranean

Island environments present challenges to human colonization, but we have a poor understanding of how environmental difference drives heterogeneous patterns of insular settlement. In this paper, we assess which environmental and geographic variables positively or negatively affect the long-term sustainability of human settlement on islands. Using the postglacial Mediterranean basin as a case study, we assess the impact of area, isolation index, species richness, and net primary productivity (NPP) on patterns of island occupation for both hunter-gatherer and agropastoral populations. We find that models involving area most effectively accounts for sustainability in hunter-gatherer island settlement. The agropastoral data are noisier, perhaps due to culturally specific factors responsible for the distribution of the data; nonetheless, we show that area and NPP exert profound influence over sustainability of agropastoral island settlement. We conclude by suggesting that this relates to the capacity of these variables to impact demographic robusticity directly.

Local convergence of behavior across species

Behavior is a way for organisms to respond flexibly to the environmental conditions they encounter. Our own species exhibits large behavioral flexibility and occurs in all terrestrial habitats, sharing these environments with many other species. It remains unclear to what extent a shared environment constrains behavior and whether these constraints apply similarly across species. Here, we show that foraging human populations and nonhuman mammal and bird species that live in a given environment exhibit high levels of similarity in their foraging, reproductive, and social behaviors. Our findings suggest that local conditions may select for similar behaviors in both humans and nonhuman animals.

The Marginal Utility of Inequality : A Global Examination across Ethnographic Societies

Despite decades of research, we still lack a clear explanation for the emergence and persistence of inequality. Here we propose and evaluate a marginal utility of inequality hypothesis that nominates circumscription and environmental heterogeneity as independent, necessary conditions for the emergence of intragroup material inequality. After coupling the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample (SCCS) with newly generated data from remote sensing, we test predictions derived from this hypothesis using a multivariate generalized additive model that accounts for spatial and historical dependence as well as subsistence mode. Our analyses show that the probability a society will be stratified increases significantly as a function of proxies of environmental heterogeneity and environmental circumscription. This supports the hypothesis that increasing environmental heterogeneity and circumscription drives the emergence and persistence of inequality among documented societies across the globe. We demonstrate how environmental heterogeneity and circumscription produce situations that limit individuals' options so that some may find it in their best interest to give up some autonomy for material gain, while others may find it in their best interest to give up some material resources for another individual's time or deference. These results support the marginal utility of inequality framework and enable future explorations of the ecological conditions that facilitate the emergence of intragroup inequality through time and across the globe.

Genetic assessment reveals no population substructure and divergent regional and sex-specific histories in the Chachapoyas from northeast Peru

Many native populations in South America have been severely impacted by two relatively recent historical events, the Inca and the Spanish conquest. However decisive these disruptive events may have been, the populations and their gene pools have been shaped markedly also by the history prior to the conquests. This study focuses mainly on the Chachapoya peoples that inhabit the montane forests on the eastern slopes of the northern Peruvian Andes, but also includes three distinct neighboring populations (the Jívaro, the Huancas and the Cajamarca). By assessing mitochondrial, Y-chromosomal and autosomal diversity in the region, we explore questions that have emerged from archaeological and historical studies of the regional culture (s). These studies have shown, among others, that Chachapoyas was a crossroads for Coast-Andes-Amazon interactions since very early times. In this study, we examine the following questions: 1) was there pre-Hispanic genetic population substructure in the Chachapoyas sample? 2) did the Spanish conquest cause a more severe population decline on Chachapoyan males than on females? 3) can we detect different patterns of European gene flow in the Chachapoyas region? and, 4) did the demographic history in the Chachapoyas resemble the one from the Andean area? Despite cultural differences within the Chachapoyas region as shown by archaeological and ethnohistorical research, genetic markers show no significant evidence for past or current population substructure, although an Amazonian gene flow dynamic in the northern part of this territory is suggested. The data also indicates a bottleneck c. 25 generations ago that was more severe among males than females, as well as divergent population histories for populations in the Andean and Amazonian regions. In line with previous studies, we observe high genetic diversity in the Chachapoyas, despite the documented dramatic population declines. The diverse topography and great biodiversity of the northeastern Peruvian montane forests are potential contributing agents in shaping and maintaining the high genetic diversity in the Chachapoyas region.

Why are population growth rate estimates of past and present hunter-gatherers so different?

Hunter-gatherer population growth rate estimates extracted from archaeological proxies and ethnographic data show remarkable differences, as archaeological estimates are orders of magnitude smaller than ethnographic and historical estimates. This could imply that prehistoric hunter-gatherers were demographically different from recent hunter-gatherers. However, we show that the resolution of archaeological human population proxies is not sufficiently high to detect actual population dynamics and growth rates that can be observed in the historical and ethnographic data. We argue that archaeological and ethnographic population growth rates measure different things; therefore, they are not directly comparable. While ethnographic growth rate estimates of hunter-gatherer populations are directly linked to underlying demographic parameters, archaeological estimates track changes in the long-term mean population size, which reflects changes in the environmental productivity that provide the ultimate constraint for forager population growth. We further argue that because of this constraining effect, hunter-gatherer populations cannot exhibit long-term growth independently of increasing environmental productivity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Carrying capacity, population density and the later Pleistocene expression of backed artefact manufacturing traditions in Africa

As is the case today, both climate variability and population density influenced human behavioural change in the past. The mechanisms underpinning later Pleistocene human behavioural evolution, however, remain contested. Many complex behaviours evolved in Africa, but early evidence for these behaviours varies both spatially and temporally. Scientists have not been able to explain this flickering pattern, which is present even in sites and regions clearly occupied by Homo sapiens. To explore this pattern, here the presence and frequency of evidence for backed stone artefact production are modelled against climate-driven, time-series population density estimates (Timmermann and Friedrich. 2016 Nature 538, 92. (doi:10.1038/nature19365)), in all known African Late Pleistocene archaeological sites (n = 116 sites, n = 409 assemblages, n = 893 dates). In addition, a moving-window, site density population estimate is included at the scale of southern Africa. Backed stone artefacts are argued in many archaeological contexts to have functioned in elaborate technologies like composite weapons and, in the African Pleistocene, are accepted proxies for cultural complexity. They show a broad but sporadic distribution in Africa, prior to their association with Homo sapiens dispersing into Europe 45-40 ka. Two independent population estimates explain this pattern and potentially implicate the interaction of climate change and demography in the expression of cultural complexity in African Pleistocene Homo sapiens. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Diversity begets diversity in mammal species and human cultures

Across the planet the biogeographic distribution of human cultural diversity tends to correlate positively with biodiversity. In this paper we focus on the biogeographic distribution of mammal species and human cultural diversity. We show that not only are these forms of diversity similarly distributed in space, but they both scale superlinearly with environmental production. We develop theory that explains that as environmental productivity increases the ecological kinetics of diversity increases faster than expected because more complex environments are also more interactive. Using biogeographic databases of the global distributions of mammal species and human cultures we test a series of hypotheses derived from this theory and find support for each. For both mammals and cultures, we show that (1) both forms of diversity increase exponentially with ecological kinetics; (2) the kinetics of diversity is faster than the kinetics of productivity; (3) diversity scales superlinearly with environmental productivity; and (4) the kinetics of diversity is faster in increasingly productive environments. This biogeographic convergence is particularly striking because while the dynamics of biological and cultural evolution may be similar in principle the underlying mechanisms and time scales are very different. However, a common currency underlying all forms of diversity is ecological kinetics; the temperature-dependent fluxes of energy and biotic interactions that sustain all forms of life at all levels of organization. Diversity begets diversity in mammal species and human cultures because ecological kinetics drives superlinear scaling with environmental productivity.

Harsh environments promote alloparental care across human societies

Alloparental care is central to human life history, which integrates exceptionally short interbirth intervals and large birth size with an extended period of juvenile dependency and increased longevity. Formal models, previous comparative research, and palaeoanthropological evidence suggest that humans evolved higher levels of cooperative childcare in response to increasingly harsh environments. Although this hypothesis remains difficult to test directly, the relative importance of alloparental care varies across human societies, providing an opportunity to assess how local social and ecological factors influence the expression of this behaviour. We therefore, investigated associations between alloparental infant care and socioecology across 141 non-industrialized societies. We predicted increased alloparental care in harsher environments, due to the fitness benefits of cooperation in response to shared ecological challenges. We also predicted that starvation would decrease alloparental care, due to prohibitive energetic costs. Using Bayesian phylogenetic multilevel models, we tested these predictions while accounting for potential confounds as well as for population history. Consistent with our hypotheses, we found increased alloparental infant care in regions characterized by both reduced climate predictability and relatively lower average temperatures and precipitation. We also observed reduced alloparental care under conditions of high starvation. These results provide evidence of plasticity in human alloparenting in response to ecological contexts, comparable to previously observed patterns across avian and mammalian cooperative breeders. This suggests convergent social evolutionary processes may underlie both inter- and intraspecific variation in alloparental care.

Archaeological expansions in tropical South America during the late Holocene: Assessing the role of demic diffusion

Human expansions motivated by the spread of farming are one of the most important processes that shaped cultural geographies during the Holocene. The best known example of this phenomenon is the Neolithic expansion in Europe, but parallels in other parts of the globe have recently come into focus. Here, we examine the expansion of four archaeological cultures of widespread distribution in lowland South America, most of which originated in or around the Amazon basin and spread during the late Holocene with the practice of tropical forest agriculture. We analyze spatial gradients in radiocarbon dates of each culture through space-time regressions, allowing us to establish the most likely geographical origin, time and speed of expansion. To further assess the feasibility of demic diffusion as the process behind the archaeological expansions in question, we employ agent-based simulations with demographic parameters derived from the ethnography of tropical forest farmers. We find that, while some expansions can be realistically modeled as demographic processes, others are not easily explainable in the same manner, which is possibly due to different processes driving their dispersal (e.g. cultural diffusion) or problematic/incomplete archaeological data.

Marine resource abundance drove pre-agricultural population increase in Stone Age Scandinavia

How climate and ecology affect key cultural transformations remains debated in the context of long-term socio-cultural development because of spatially and temporally disjunct climate and archaeological records. The introduction of agriculture triggered a major population increase across Europe. However, in Southern Scandinavia it was preceded by ~500 years of sustained population growth. Here we show that this growth was driven by long-term enhanced marine production conditioned by the Holocene Thermal Maximum, a time of elevated temperature, sea level and salinity across coastal waters. We identify two periods of increased marine production across trophic levels (P1 7600–7100 and P2 6400–5900 cal. yr BP) that coincide with markedly increased mollusc collection and accumulation of shell middens, indicating greater marine resource availability. Between ~7600–5900 BP, intense exploitation of a warmer, more productive marine environment by Mesolithic hunter-gatherers drove cultural development, including maritime technological innovation, and from ca. 6400–5900 BP, underpinned a ~four-fold human population growth.

How the development of human societies is influenced through their ecological environment and climatic conditions has been the subject of intensive debate. Here, the authors present multi-proxy data from southern Scandinavia which suggests that pre-agricultural population growth there was likely influenced by enhanced marine production.

The Overlooked Tradition of "Personal Music" and Its Place in the Evolution of Music

This is an attempt to describe and explain so-called timbre-based music as a special system of musicking, communication, and psychological and social usage, which along with its corresponding beliefs constitutes a viable alternative to “frequency-based” music. Unfortunately, the current scientific research into music has been skewed almost entirely in favor of the frequency-based music prevalent in the West. Subsequently, whenever samples of timbre-based music attract the attention of Western researchers, these are usually interpreted as “defective” implementations of frequency-based music. The presence of discrete pitch is often regarded as the structural criterion that distinguishes music from non-music. We would like to present evidence to the contrary—in support of the existence of indigenous music systems based on the discretization and patterning of aspects of timbre, rather than pitch. This evidence comes mainly from extensive ethnographic research systematically conducted in eastern European and Asian parts of Russia from the 1890s. It involved the efforts of thousands of specialists and was coordinated by dozens of research institutions, and it has included not just ethnomusicology but linguistics, philology, organology, archaeology, anthropology, geography, and religious, and social studies. Much of the data has not been translated into Western languages. Although some Soviet-era publications were tainted by Marxist ideology, many researchers strove to provide accurate information (despite at times having been prosecuted for their work), and post-1990 research undertook a substantial revision of ideologically compromised concepts. Timbre-based tonal organization (TO) differs from that based on frequency in its personal orientation: musicking here occurs primarily for oneself and/or for close relatives/friends. Collective music-making is rare and exceptional. The foundation of timbre-based music seems to have vocal roots and rests on “personal song”—a system of personal identification through individualized patterns of rhythm, timbre, and pitch contour, utilized like a “human voice”—whose sound enables the recognition of a particular individual. The instrumental counterpart of the personalized singing tradition is the jaw harp tradition. The jaw harp is the principal musical instrument for at least 21 ethnicities in Russia, who occupy over half the territory of the country. The evolution of its TO forms the backbone for the development of timbre-based music art. Here, we provide the acoustic, socio-cultural, geographic, and chronological overview of timbre-based music.

Climate-human interaction associated with southeast Australian megafauna extinction patterns

The mechanisms leading to megafauna (>44 kg) extinctions in Late Pleistocene (126,000—12,000 years ago) Australia are highly contested because standard chronological analyses rely on scarce data of varying quality and ignore spatial complexity. Relevant archaeological and palaeontological records are most often also biased by differential preservation resulting in under-representated older events. Chronological analyses have attributed megafaunal extinctions to climate change, humans, or a combination of the two, but rarely consider spatial variation in extinction patterns, initial human appearance trajectories, and palaeoclimate change together. Here we develop a statistical approach to infer spatio-temporal trajectories of megafauna extirpations (local extinctions) and initial human appearance in south-eastern Australia. We identify a combined climate-human effect on regional extirpation patterns suggesting that small, mobile Aboriginal populations potentially needed access to drinkable water to survive arid ecosystems, but were simultaneously constrained by climate-dependent net landscape primary productivity. Thus, the co-drivers of megafauna extirpations were themselves constrained by the spatial distribution of climate-dependent water sources.

Whether Australia’s Pleistocene megafauna extinctions were caused by climate change, humans, or both is debated. Here, the authors infer the spatio-temporal trajectories of regional extinctions and find that water availability mediates the relationship among climate, human migration and megafauna extinctions.

Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul

The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM's net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projected these populations to determine the resilience and minimum sizes required to avoid extinction. A census founding population of between 1,300 and 1,550 individuals was necessary to maintain a quasi-extinction threshold of ≲0.1. This minimum founding population could have arrived at a single point in time, or through multiple voyages of ≥130 people over ~700-900 years. This result shows that substantial population amalgamation in Sunda and Wallacea in Marine Isotope Stages 3-4 provided the conditions for the successful, large-scale and probably planned peopling of Sahul.

Early human settlement of Sahul was not an accident

The first peopling of Sahul (Australia, New Guinea and the Aru Islands joined at lower sea levels) by anatomically modern humans required multiple maritime crossings through Wallacea, with at least one approaching 100 km. Whether these crossings were accidental or intentional is unknown. Using coastal-viewshed analysis and ocean drift modelling combined with population projections, we show that the probability of randomly reaching Sahul by any route is <5% until ≥40 adults are 'washed off' an island at least once every 20 years. We then demonstrate that choosing a time of departure and making minimal headway (0.5 knots) toward a destination greatly increases the likelihood of arrival. While drift modelling demonstrates the existence of 'bottleneck' crossings on all routes, arrival via New Guinea is more likely than via northwestern Australia. We conclude that anatomically modern humans had the capacity to plan and make open-sea voyages lasting several days by at least 50,000 years ago.

Tools, trails and time: Debating Acheulian group size at Attirampakkam, India

Estimating Acheulian group sizes based on a fragmentary archaeological record is fraught with difficulties, more so in regions like India, where lithics form the primary source of information. Here, we review current approaches towards modeling group size in Indian archaeology. We then examine to what extent one may address issues related to seasonality, fission-fusion strategies and group size in the context of Acheulian sites, drawing on our research along the southeastern coast of India. We move between multiple scales of analysis: from the regional Acheulian archaeological record to specific studies at the site of Attirampakkam (ATM). We consider aspects of site distribution, sizes, artefact densities and Acheulian lithic reduction strategies, factoring in issues related to geomorphology, taphonomy and chronology. Acheulian hominins occupied the study region over the early to middle Pleistocene, and the fragmented lithic reduction sequence noted on landscape scales suggests diverse site functions structured by ease of access to quartzite raw material for large flake production in addition to other resources. In contrast to most sites, the absence of raw material at ATM necessitated groups to anticipate this, and organize their behavior on landscape scales, and on-site, to resolve this issue. We show how successive groups were attracted to the site over the early Pleistocene, potentially aiming at exploiting seasonally predictable biological resources in a riparian environment, knowledge of which was transmitted across generations. Considerations of the spatial and temporal variability in artefact densities across a vast site area, along with aspects of the lithic reduction sequences suggests a short-duration occupation by a potentially large group, possibly resulting from aggregation of several small groups as noted in some ethnographic examples of hunter-gatherer fission-fusion strategies. We show drastic changes in behavioral organization in the succeeding Middle Palaeolithic phases at the site and in the region.

Population dynamics and socio-spatial organization of the Aurignacian: Scalable quantitative demographic data for western and central Europe

Demographic estimates are presented for the Aurignacian techno-complex (~42,000 to 33,000 y calBP) and discussed in the context of socio-spatial organization of hunter-gatherer populations. Results of the analytical approach applied estimate a mean of 1,500 persons (upper limit: 3,300; lower limit: 800) for western and central Europe. The temporal and spatial analysis indicates an increase of the population during the Aurignacian as well as marked regional differences in population size and density. Demographic increase and patterns of socio-spatial organization continue during the subsequent early Gravettian period. We introduce the concept of Core Areas and Extended Areas as informed analytical spatial scales, which are evaluated against additional chronological and archaeological data. Lithic raw material transport and personal ornaments serve as correlates for human mobility and connectedness in the interpretative framework of this study. Observed regional differences are set in relation with the new demographic data. Our large-scale approach on Aurignacian population dynamics in Europe suggests that past socio-spatial organization followed socially inherent rules to establish and maintain a functioning social network of extremely low population densities. The data suggest that the network was fully established across Europe during the early phase of the Gravettian, when demographic as well as cultural developments peaked.

Synchronization of energy consumption by human societies throughout the Holocene

We conduct a global comparison of the consumption of energy by human populations throughout the Holocene and statistically quantify coincident changes in the consumption of energy over space and time-an ecological phenomenon known as synchrony. When populations synchronize, adverse changes in ecosystems and social systems may cascade from society to society. Thus, to develop policies that favor the sustained use of resources, we must understand the processes that cause the synchrony of human populations. To date, it is not clear whether human societies display long-term synchrony or, if they do, the potential causes. Our analysis begins to fill this knowledge gap by quantifying the long-term synchrony of human societies, and we hypothesize that the synchrony of human populations results from (i) the creation of social ties that couple populations over smaller scales and (ii) much larger scale, globally convergent trajectories of cultural evolution toward more energy-consuming political economies with higher carrying capacities. Our results suggest that the process of globalization is a natural consequence of evolutionary trajectories that increase the carrying capacities of human societies.

Parasites and politics: why cross-cultural studies must control for relatedness, proximity and covariation

A growing number of studies seek to identify predictors of broad-scale patterns in human cultural diversity, but three sources of non-independence in human cultural variables can bias the results of cross-cultural studies. First, related cultures tend to have many traits in common, regardless of whether those traits are functionally linked. Second, societies in geographical proximity will share many aspects of culture, environment and demography. Third, many cultural traits covary, leading to spurious relationships between traits. Here, we demonstrate tractable methods for dealing with all three sources of bias. We use cross-cultural analyses of proposed associations between human cultural traits and parasite load to illustrate the potential problems of failing to correct for these three forms of statistical non-independence. Associations between parasite stress and sociosexuality, authoritarianism, democracy and language diversity are weak or absent once relatedness and proximity are taken into account, and parasite load has no more power to explain variation in traditionalism, religiosity and collectivism than other measures of biodiversity, climate or population size do. Without correction for statistical non-independence and covariation in cross-cultural analyses, we risk misinterpreting associations between culture and environment.

The Role of aDNA in Understanding the Coevolutionary Patterns of Human Sexually Transmitted Infections

Analysis of pathogen genome data sequenced from clinical and historical samples has made it possible to perform phylogenetic analyses of sexually transmitted infections on a global scale, and to estimate the diversity, distribution, and coevolutionary host relationships of these pathogens, providing insights into pathogen emergence and disease prevention. Deep-sequenced pathogen genomes from clinical studies and ancient samples yield estimates of within-host and between-host evolutionary rates and provide data on changes in pathogen genomic stability and evolutionary responses. Here we examine three groups of pathogens transmitted mainly through sexual contact between modern humans to provide insight into ancient human behavior and history with their pathogens. Exploring ancient pathogen genomic divergence and the ancient viral-host parallel evolutionary histories will help us to reconstruct the origin of present-day geographical distribution and diversity of clinical pathogen infections, and will hopefully allow us to foresee possible environmentally induced pathogen evolutionary responses. Lastly, we emphasize that ancient pathogen DNA research should be combined with modern clinical pathogen data, and be equitable and provide advantages for all researchers worldwide, e.g., through shared data.