Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050

When concern is not enough: Overcoming the climate awareness-action gap

Climate concern is on the rise in many countries and recent research finds that lifestyle- and behaviour-change could advance climate action; yet, individuals struggle to move their climate concern into action. This is known as the 'awareness-action inconsistency,' 'psychological climate paradox,' or 'values-action gap.' While this gap has been extensively studied, climate action implementation and policy-design seldom sufficiently apply that body of knowledge in practice. This Perspective presents a comprehensive heuristic to account for how individuals bring climate change into their awareness (climate action-logics), how they keep climate change out of their awareness (climate shadow), how social narratives contribute to shaping choices (climate discourses), and how systems and structures influence and constrain agency (climate-action systems). The heuristic is illustrated with an example of 15-Minute Cities in Canada. Understanding the multifaceted dilemma that weighs on people's sense-making and behaviours may help policy-makers and practitioners to ameliorate the climate awareness-action gap.

Tipping points of evolving epidemiological networks: Machine learning-assisted, data-driven effective modeling

We study the tipping point collective dynamics of an adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological network in a data-driven, machine learning-assisted manner. We identify a parameter-dependent effective stochastic differential equation (eSDE) in terms of physically meaningful coarse mean-field variables through a deep-learning ResNet architecture inspired by numerical stochastic integrators. We construct an approximate effective bifurcation diagram based on the identified drift term of the eSDE and contrast it with the mean-field SIS model bifurcation diagram. We observe a subcritical Hopf bifurcation in the evolving network's effective SIS dynamics that causes the tipping point behavior; this takes the form of large amplitude collective oscillations that spontaneously-yet rarely-arise from the neighborhood of a (noisy) stationary state. We study the statistics of these rare events both through repeated brute force simulations and by using established mathematical/computational tools exploiting the right-hand side of the identified SDE. We demonstrate that such a collective SDE can also be identified (and the rare event computations also performed) in terms of data-driven coarse observables, obtained here via manifold learning techniques, in particular, Diffusion Maps. The workflow of our study is straightforwardly applicable to other complex dynamic problems exhibiting tipping point dynamics.

Distinguishing fast change in social norms and slow change in personal norms in cooperative decision-making

Psychological research on norms has shown that norms are highly relevant for individuals' decision-making. Yet, there is so far little understanding of how norms change over time. Knowledge about how norms change may help better understanding their potential for as well as limitations in guiding decision-making and changing behavior. The present work investigated change in individuals' cooperation norms. As an indicator of different underlying processes of norm change, the temporal dynamics of different types of norms were examined. It was assumed that participants' social norms are adapted quickly whenever the social situation changes, while personal norms change more slowly and gradually, abstracting part of the situational learning in interaction with one's personality. In an experimental study, participants played a repeated prisoner's dilemma game with artificial co-players representing a predominantly cooperative or uncooperative social setting, depending on the experimental condition. The condition was expected to affect slow learning of personal norms. Additionally, the cooperativeness of the social setting was varied repeatedly within conditions, expected to result in fast changes in social norms. Participants' personal and social norms were assessed throughout the game. As predicted, the temporal dynamics differed between norms with social norms changing quickly and personal norms more slowly. Personal norms strongly predicted behavioral decision-making and were predicted by situational and personality factors. Potential qualitative differences of the underlying norm change processes are discussed.

Evaluating the resilience of residential buildings during a pandemic with a sustainable construction approach

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a catastrophic event that has affected all aspects of human life worldwide. Due to the high genetic mutations of the virus, there has been a prolonged search for definitive therapeutic discovery, leading to extended periods of home quarantine. As a result, homes have become multipurpose spaces for work, education, sports, and other daily activities. Given the importance of residential buildings as the first line of defense against possible future pandemics, a model has been proposed to assess their readiness to handle pandemics using a sustainable development approach. This study investigates the most crucial criteria for evaluating residential buildings and applies them in a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) process. The final evaluation model is presented using the SWARA and COCOSO methods, along with a set of criteria selected and weighted by experts. The study shows that the criteria related to health and safety are more critical than other sectors. Buildings that meet the standards of this group better are likely to have a higher score.

How to choose between single-use and reusable medical materials for sustainable nursing: Methodological lessons learned from a national study

AIM

To demonstrate and reflect upon the methodological lessons by which healthcare organizations can address questions of environmental sustainability related to single-use healthcare materials.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional multi-centre study in hospitals was performed, followed by an exploratory analysis of the sustainability of commonly used healthcare materials.

METHODS

A hospital survey was conducted to collect the procurement data for single-use medical materials. Based on consumption and cost, five single-use medical materials with sustainable alternatives were selected using different reuse strategies. Single-use and reusable materials were assessed through an exploratory literature review and document study based on four parameters: environmental sustainability, safety, cost and efficiency.

RESULTS

A pragmatic method emerged from this study, providing healthcare facilities with tools to select environmentally sustainable alternatives to replace single-use options. First, an inventory of single-use medical materials consumed was collected. Next, single-use materials were prioritized for further study based on criteria such as cost, volume of the material, feasibility and input of stakeholders. We then analysed the prioritized single-use materials and their alternatives based on life cycle assessments or available information on their different life stages. Finally, we assessed safety, costs and efficiency related to the process following the use of the medical material.

CONCLUSION

This pragmatic method can guide healthcare institutions in making the most sustainable choices of medical materials and achieving sustainability goals within their institutions and nationwide.

IMPACT

Patient care involves a large consumption of single-use medical materials with considerable environmental impact. A pragmatic method was developed to guide healthcare institutions in making the most sustainable choices regarding the use of single-use healthcare materials. Healthcare institutions, ideally represented by a green team including nurses and other relevant professionals, can use this method to reduce the use of single-use medical materials, thereby yielding positive outcomes for the entire population.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

No patient or public contribution.

Negotiating discord in sustainability transformations

Policy action for sustainability transformation faces inherent and ever-present sources of conflict, pushback, and resistance (i.e., discord). However, conceptual frameworks and policy prescriptions for sustainability transformations often reflect an undue image of accord. This involves simplified assumptions about consensus, steering, friction, discreteness, and additiveness of policy action, conferring an unrealistic view of the potential to deliberately realize transformation. Instead, negotiating discord through continuously finding partial political settlements among divided actors needs to become a key focus of policy action for sustainability transformations. Doing so can help to navigate deeply political settings through imperfect but workable steps that loosen deadlock, generate momentum for further policy action, and avoid complete derailment of transformation agendas when discord arises.

The differential impact of climate interventions along the political divide in 60 countries

A major barrier to climate change mitigation is the political polarization of climate change beliefs. In a global experiment conducted in 60 countries (N = 51,224), we assess the differential impact of eleven climate interventions across the ideological divide. At baseline, we find political polarization of climate change beliefs and policy support globally, with people who reported being liberal believing and supporting climate policy more than those who reported being conservative (Cohen's d = 0.35 and 0.27, respectively). However, we find no evidence for a statistically significant difference between these groups in their engagement in a behavioral tree planting task. This conceptual-behavioral polarization incongruence results from self-identified conservatives acting despite not believing, rather than self-identified liberals not acting on their beliefs. We also find three interventions (emphasizing effective collective actions, writing a letter to a future generation member, and writing a letter from the future self) boost climate beliefs and policy support across the ideological spectrum, and one intervention (emphasizing scientific consensus) stimulates the climate action of people identifying as liberal. None of the interventions tested show evidence for a statistically significant boost in climate action for self-identified conservatives. We discuss implications for practitioners deploying targeted climate interventions.

The relevance of sustainable laboratory practices

Scientists are of key importance to the society to advocate awareness of the climate crisis and its underlying scientific evidence and provide solutions for a sustainable future. As much as scientific research has led to great achievements and benefits, traditional laboratory practices come with unintended environmental consequences. Scientists, while providing solutions to climate problems and educating the young innovators of the future, are also part of the problem: excessive energy consumption, (hazardous) waste generation, and resource depletion. Through their own research operations, science, research and laboratories have a significant carbon footprint and contribute to the climate crisis. Climate change requires a rapid response across all sectors of society, modeled by inspiring leaders. A broader scientific community that takes concrete actions would serve as an important step in convincing the general public of similar actions. Over the past years, grassroots movements across the sciences have recognized the overlooked impact of the scientific enterprise, and so-called Green Lab initiatives emerged seeking to address the environmental footprint of research. Driven by the voluntary efforts of researchers and staff, they educate peers, develop sustainability guidelines, write scientific publications and maintain accreditation frameworks. With this perspective we want to advocate for and spark leadership to promote a systemic change in laboratory practices and approach to research. Comprehensive evidence for the environmental impact of laboratories and their root-causes is presented, expanded with data from a current case study of the University of Groningen showcasing annual savings of 398 763 € as well as 477.1 tons of CO2e. This is followed by guidelines for sustainable lab practices and hands-on advice on how to achieve a systemic change at research institutions and industry. How can we expect industry, politics, and society to change, if we as scientists are not changing either? Scientists should lead by example and practice the change they want to see.

Audience segmentation approach to conservation messaging for transforming the exotic pet trade

Advancing transformative change for sustainability requires population-wide behavior change. Yet, many behavioral interventions tackling environmental problems only examine average effects on the aggregate, overlooking the heterogeneous effects in a population. We developed and preregistered a novel audience segmentation approach to test the diverse impact of conservation messaging on reducing demand for exotic pets (private action - i.e., desire to own exotic pets or visit wildlife entertainment places) and fostering citizen engagement for system-wide change (civic action - e.g., signing a petition or participating in a protest against the exotic pet trade). Through an online survey with US participants (n = 2953), we identified 4 population segments (early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards), representing varying levels of commitment to wildlife conservation and then randomly assigned each segment to one of 3 messaging conditions. Messages highlighting negative consequences of the exotic pet trade and the power of collective action for system change effectively promoted private action among all segments except early adopters (ηp 2 = 0.005). Among civic actions, only the collective action message motivated early adopters and the early majority to sign petitions (φC = 0.193 and φC = 0.097, respectively). Furthermore, the 4 segments showed distinct reasoning for action and inaction on wildlife conservation, with certain relational values, such as care, serving as both motivations and barriers to action. These findings highlight the need for targeted behavioral interventions across diverse populations.

Transient social-ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape

Understanding the transient dynamics of interlinked social-ecological systems (SES) is imperative for assessing sustainability in the Anthropocene. However, how to identify critical transitions in real-world SES remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we present an evolutionary framework to characterize these dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Our approach leverages multidecadal rates of change in socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental, and cutting-edge sedimentary ancient DNA records from China's Yangtze River Delta, one of the most densely populated and intensively modified landscapes on Earth. Our analysis reveals two significant social-ecological transitions characterized by contrasting interactions and feedback spanning several centuries. Initially, the regional SES exhibited a loosely connected and ecologically sustainable regime. Nevertheless, starting in the 1950s, an increasingly interconnected regime emerged, ultimately resulting in the crossing of tipping points and an unprecedented acceleration in soil erosion, water eutrophication, and ecosystem degradation. Remarkably, the second transition occurring around the 2000s, featured a notable decoupling of socioeconomic development from ecoenvironmental degradation. This decoupling phenomenon signifies a more desirable reconfiguration of the regional SES, furnishing essential insights not only for the Yangtze River Basin but also for regions worldwide grappling with similar sustainability challenges. Our extensive multidecadal empirical investigation underscores the value of coevolutionary approaches in understanding and addressing social-ecological system dynamics.

The hope wheel: a model to enable hope-based pedagogy in Climate Change Education

In response to concerns about climate anxiety and distress, researchers and practitioners in both education and psychology have been investigating the importance of engaging climate hope in Climate Change Education (CCE). Synthesizing recent multidisciplinary research, alongside insights from the development of educational programs, this article proposes a new theoretical model for pedagogies of hope in CCE. The Hope Wheel presents three foundational elements: handrails for educators to hold on to while constructively engaging with climate change (honesty, awareness, spaceholding, action), guardrails for educators to be sensitive to when implementing the handrails (climate anxiety, mis-/disinformation, false hope), and lenses to encourage educators to explore connections between complex societal and planetary challenges (complexity, justice, perspectives, creativity, and empathy). This working model aims to support educators by distilling current learnings from the literature into a visual guide. It depicts essential elements to include, as well as avoid, in order to engage honest, hope-oriented CCE for transformative learning in the face of the climate crisis.

When norm change hurts

Applied cultural evolution includes any effort to mobilize social learning and cultural evolution to promote behaviour change. Social tipping is one version of this idea based on conformity and coordination. Conformity and coordination can reinforce a harmful social norm, but they can also accelerate change from a harmful norm to a beneficial alternative. Perhaps unfortunately, the link between the size of an intervention and social tipping is complex in heterogeneous populations. A small intervention targeted at one segment of society can induce tipping better than a large intervention targeted at a different segment. We develop and examine two models showing that the link between social tipping and social welfare is also complex in heterogeneous populations. An intervention strategy that creates persistent miscoordination, exactly the opposite of tipping, can lead to higher social welfare than another strategy that leads to tipping. We show that the potential benefits of miscoordination often hinge specifically on the preferences of people most resistant to behaviour change. Altogether, ordinary forms of heterogeneity complicate applied cultural evolution considerably. Heterogeneity weakens both the link between the size of a social planner's intervention and behaviour change and the link between behaviour change and the well-being of society. This article is part of the theme issue 'Social norm change: drivers and consequences'.

Addressing climate change with behavioral science: A global intervention tournament in 63 countries

Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from 63 countries, the interventions' effectiveness was small, largely limited to nonclimate skeptics, and differed across outcomes: Beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance (by 2.3%), policy support by writing a letter to a future-generation member (2.6%), information sharing by negative emotion induction (12.1%), and no intervention increased the more effortful behavior-several interventions even reduced tree planting. Last, the effects of each intervention differed depending on people's initial climate beliefs. These findings suggest that the impact of behavioral climate interventions varies across audiences and target behaviors.

The planetary commons: A new paradigm for safeguarding Earth-regulating systems in the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework-the planetary commons-which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.

Modelling six sustainable development transformations in Australia and their accelerators, impediments, enablers, and interlinkages

There is an urgent need to accelerate progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and recent research has identified six critical transformations. It is important to demonstrate how these transformations could be practically accelerated in a national context and what their combined effects would be. Here we bridge national systems modelling with transformation storylines to provide an analysis of a Six Transformations Pathway for Australia. We explore important policies to accelerate progress, synergies and trade-offs, and conditions that determine policy success. We find that implementing policy packages to accelerate each transformation would boost performance on the SDGs by 2030 (+23% above the baseline). Policymakers can maximize transformation synergies through investments in energy decarbonization, resilience, social protection, and sustainable food systems, while managing trade-offs for income and employment. To overcome resistance to transformations, ambitious policy action will need to be underpinned by technological, social, and political enabling conditions.

Optimistic framing increases responsible investment of investment professionals

The global warming crisis is unlikely to abate while the world continues to collectively fund the extraction and burning of fossil fuels. Carbon divestment is urgently needed to ward off the impending climate emergency. Yet responsible investments still only account for a modest share of global assets. We conduct an incentivized artefactual field experiment to test whether framing divestment as a social norm, communicating it by a person with perceived credibility and expertise (a messenger), and highlighting optimistic attributes bolster responsible investment. Our subjects are investment professionals who have significant influence over the allocation of funds. We provide evidence that optimistic framing increases responsible investment. Assuming a comparable effect size, the observed increase would represent a $3.6 trillion USD global shift in asset allocations.

Our fragile future under the cumulative cultural evolution of two technologies

We derive and analyse a model with unusual features characterizing human activities over the long-run. First, human population dynamics draw heavily on consumer-resource modelling in ecology in that humans must consume biological resources to produce new humans. Second, the model also draws heavily from economic growth theory in that humans do not simply consume biological resources; they also produce the resources they consume. Finally, humans use two types of technology. Consumption technology affects the rate at which humans can extract resources. Production technology controls how effectively humans convert labour into new resources. The dynamics of both types of technology are subject to cumulative cultural evolutionary processes that allow both technological progress and regress. The resulting model exhibits a wide range of dynamical regimes. That said, the system is routinely sensitive to initial conditions, with wildly different outcomes given the same parameter values. Moreover, the system exhibits a basic fragility in the sense that human activities often lead to the endogenous extinction of the human species. This can happen gently, or it can follow periods of explosive human activity with super-exponential growth that ends in collapse. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Green preferences sustain greenwashing: challenges in the cultural transition to a sustainable future

Discussions of the environmental impact that revolve around monetary incentives and other easy-to-measure factors are important, but they neglect culture. Pro-environmental values will be crucial when facing sustainability challenges in the Anthropocene, and demand among green consumers is arguably critical to incentivise sustainable production. However, owing to asymmetric information, consumers might not know whether the premium they pay for green production is well-spent. Reliable monitoring of manufacturers is meant to solve this problem. To see how this might work, we develop and analyse a game theoretic model of a simple buyer-seller exchange with asymmetric information, and our analysis shows that greenwashing can exist exactly because reliable monitoring co-exists with unreliable monitoring. More broadly, promoting pro-environmental values among consumers might even amplify the problem at times because a manufacturer with significant market power can exploit both consumer preferences for sustainability and trustworthy monitoring to gouge prices and in extreme cases green wash in plain sight. We discuss several strategies to address this problem. Promoting accurate beliefs and a large-scale behavioural change based on pro-environmental values might be necessary for a rapid transition to a sustainable future, but recent evidence from the cultural evolution literature highlights many important challenges. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Agentic processes in cultural evolution: relevance to Anthropocene sustainability

Humans have evolved culturally and perhaps genetically to be unsustainable. We exhibit a deep and consistent pattern of short-term resource exploitation behaviours and institutions. We distinguish agentic and naturally selective forces in cultural evolution. Agentic forces are quite important compared to the blind forces (random variation and natural selection) in cultural evolution and gene-culture coevolution. We need to use the agentic policy-making processes to evade the impact of blind natural selection. We argue that agentic forces became important during our Pleistocene history and into the Anthropocene present. Human creativity in the form of deliberate innovations and the deliberate selective diffusion of technical and social advances drove this process forward for a long time before planetary limits became a serious issue. We review models with multiple positive feedbacks that roughly fit this observed pattern. Policy changes in the case of large-scale existential threats like climate change are made by political and diplomatic agents grasping and moving levers of institutional power in order to avoid the operation of blind natural selection and agentic forces driven by narrow or short-term goals. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Spread of the cycles: a feedback perspective on the Anthropocene

What propelled the human 'revolutions' that started the Anthropocene? and what could speed humanity out of trouble? Here, we focus on the role of reinforcing feedback cycles, often comprised of diverse, unrelated elements (e.g. fire, grass, humans), in propelling abrupt and/or irreversible, revolutionary changes. We suggest that differential 'spread of the cycles' has been critical to the past human revolutions of fire use, agriculture, rise of complex states and industrialization. For each revolution, we review and map out proposed reinforcing feedback cycles, and describe how new systems built on previous ones, propelling us into the Anthropocene. We argue that to escape a bleak Anthropocene will require abruptly shifting from existing unsustainable 'vicious cycles', to alternative sustainable 'virtuous cycles' that can outspread and outpersist them. This will need to be complemented by a revolutionary cultural shift from maximizing growth to maximizing persistence (sustainability). To achieve that we suggest that non-human elements need to be brought back into the feedback cycles underlying human cultures and associated measures of progress. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Integrating evolutionary theory and social-ecological systems research to address the sustainability challenges of the Anthropocene

The rapid, human-induced changes in the Earth system during the Anthropocene present humanity with critical sustainability challenges. Social-ecological systems (SES) research provides multiple approaches for understanding the complex interactions between humans, social systems, and environments and how we might direct them towards healthier and more resilient futures. However, general theories of SES change have yet to be fully developed. Formal evolutionary theory has been applied as a dynamic theory of change of complex phenomena in biology and the social sciences, but rarely in SES research. In this paper, we explore the connections between both fields, hoping to foster collaboration. After sketching out the distinct intellectual traditions of SES research and evolutionary theory, we map some of their terminological and theoretical connections. We then provide examples of how evolutionary theory might be incorporated into SES research through the use of systems mapping to identify evolutionary processes in SES, the application of concepts from evolutionary developmental biology to understand the connections between systems changes and evolutionary changes, and how evolutionary thinking may help design interventions for beneficial change. Integrating evolutionary theory and SES research can lead to a better understanding of SES changes and positive interventions for a more sustainable Anthropocene. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Public perceptions of climate tipping points

Coverage of climate tipping points has rapidly increased over the past 20 years. Despite this upsurge, there has been precious little research into how the public perceives these abrupt and/or irreversible large-scale risks. This article provides a nationally representative view on public perceptions of climate tipping points and possible societal responses to them (n = 1773). Developing a mixed-methods survey with cultural cognition theory, it shows that awareness among the British public is low. The public is doubtful about the future effectiveness of humanity's response to climate change in general, and significantly more doubtful about its response to tipping points specifically. Significantly more people with an egalitarian worldview judge tipping points likely to be crossed and to be a significant threat to humanity. All possible societal responses received strong support. The article ends by considering the prospects for 'cultural tipping elements' to tip support for climate policies across divergent cultural worldviews.

Achieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions

Emerging economies, low- and middle-income countries experiencing rapid population and GDP growth, face the challenge of improving their living standards while stabilizing CO2 emissions to meet net-zero goals. In this study, we quantify the CO2 emissions required for achieving decent living standards (DLS) in emerging economies. The results show that, compared to other regions, achieving DLS in emerging Asian and African economies will result in more additional CO2 emissions, particularly in the DLS indicators of Mobility and Electricity. Achievement of DLS in emerging economies will result in 8.6 Gt of additional CO2 emissions, which should not jeopardize global climate targets. However, a concerning trend arises as more than half of the emerging economies (62 out of 121) will face substantial challenges in aligning their expected emission growth for achieving DLS with their national emission mitigation targets.

Community-engaged research is best positioned to catalyze systemic change

Addressing many social challenges requires both structural and behavioral change. The binary of an i- and s-frame obscures how behavioral science can help foster bottom-up collective action. Adopting a community-frame perspective moves toward a more integrative view of how social change emerges, and how it might be promoted by policymakers and publics in service of addressing challenges like climate change.

Harnessing human and machine intelligence for planetary-level climate action

The ongoing global race for bigger and better artificial intelligence (AI) systems is expected to have a profound societal and environmental impact by altering job markets, disrupting business models, and enabling new governance and societal welfare structures that can affect global consensus for climate action pathways. However, the current AI systems are trained on biased datasets that could destabilize political agencies impacting climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions and compromise social stability, potentially leading to societal tipping events. Thus, the appropriate design of a less biased AI system that reflects both direct and indirect effects on societies and planetary challenges is a question of paramount importance. In this paper, we tackle the question of data-centric knowledge generation for climate action in ways that minimize biased AI. We argue for the need to co-align a less biased AI with an epistemic web on planetary health challenges for more trustworthy decision-making. A human-in-the-loop AI can be designed to align with three goals. First, it can contribute to a planetary epistemic web that supports climate action. Second, it can directly enable mitigation and adaptation interventions through knowledge of social tipping elements. Finally, it can reduce the data injustices associated with AI pretraining datasets.

A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then to identify, date, characterize, and rank past critical transitions in terms of importance, thus possibly yielding a more thorough perspective on climatic history. To illustrate such an approach, which is inspired by the punctuated equilibrium perspective on the theory of evolution, we have analyzed 2 key high-resolution datasets: the CENOGRID marine compilation (past 66 Myr), and North Atlantic U1308 record (past 3.3 Myr). By combining recurrence analysis of the individual time series with a multivariate representation of the system based on the theory of the quasi-potential, we identify the key abrupt transitions associated with major regime changes that separate various clusters of climate variability. This allows interpreting the time-evolution of the system as a trajectory taking place in a dynamical landscape, whose multiscale features describe a hierarchy of metastable states and associated tipping points.

Measuring adolescents' level of interest in nature: a promising psychological factor facilitating nature protection

Studies indicate that young people are more prepared to engage in pro-environmental behavior if they are interested in nature and recognize it as worthy of protection. However, a reliable instrument to measure adolescents' interest in nature is still lacking. Therefore, we developed a new metric, the Scale of Interest in Nature (SIN). It consists of 18 items, is based on Item-Response-Theory and was validated using the known group approach (N = 351 adolescents). Results indicate that adolescents' interest in nature correlates positively with their connection with nature, their intention to preserve nature and engagement in pro-environmental activities in their free time. Bivariate Pearson correlations between the SIN and the Connectedness to Nature Scale (INS), as well as the Environmental Values model (2-MEV) demonstrated the scale's construct validity. Hence, the SIN scale provides an economical way to measure adolescents' interest in nature in research contexts or environmental and sustainability education settings.

Unlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs: a review of existing knowledge

As we cross the 2030 deadline to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), there is a growing sense of urgency around the need to accelerate the necessary transformations. These encompass a broad range of systems and require fundamental changes in system goals and design. In this paper, we undertake a narrative review of the literature relating to the acceleration of transformations and offer a framework for unlocking and accelerating transformations to the SDGs. While there is no blueprint for acceleration, there is an expanding knowledge base on important dynamics, impediments and enabling conditions across diverse literatures which can help to inform strategic interventions by actors. The emerging literature on positive tipping points and deep leverage points identifies opportunities to rewire systems design so that important system feedbacks create the conditions for acceleration. Transformation takes time and actors will need to build momentum to reorient systems around new goals, informed by knowledge of common policy, technology and behavioural feedbacks that govern system dynamics. Where resistance is strong, actors can seek to augment system design in ways that weaken balancing feedbacks that stabilise existing system configurations and strengthen reinforcing feedbacks that promote emerging system configurations oriented towards the SDGs. Well-designed and sequenced interventions can promote innovation and behaviour change and build and maintain political support. This can build critical enabling conditions and push systems towards large-scale tipping points, paving the way for decisive policy action that is crucial for triggering acceleration. We conclude by highlighting gaps and priorities for further research.

[Sustainability in private surgical practice-A narrative review]

Background

Surgery is contributing to the climate crisis, not least in the outpatient sector. The present publication aims to identify the challenges this poses, and to provide clear, preferably evidence-based recommendations on environmental protection while simultaneously reducing costs.

Method

Narrative review with a non-systematic search and selection in PubMed/MEDLINE and grey area literature as well as expert interviews.

Results

Numerous primary articles, evidence syntheses, practical recommendations for action and checklists were identified and two experts were interviewed. Environmental issues were identified in the production and procurement, transport of people and goods, usage of materials, pharmaceuticals including anesthetic gases and energy consumption in the outpatient practice and also in disposal, recycling, and sterilization. High-quality publications do not describe a lack of knowledge on alternatives but on a lack of implementation in clinical practice. Therefore, the identified issues were classified in the 5‑R scheme (reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink, research) to present recommendations for action, which are synergetic in terms of cost reduction, patient and staff satisfaction. Furthermore, changes in regulatory frameworks are discussed.

Conclusion

Outpatient surgery comes with relevant consumption of resources and carbon emissions. There are numerous opportunities for action that combine environmental protection with cost reduction as well as patient and staff satisfaction. Incentives, guidelines, and legal framework conditions are needed for comprehensive environmental protection in the private sector.

Ten characteristics of high-quality planetary health education-Results from a qualitative study with educators, students as educators and study deans at medical schools in Germany

Aim

The climate and ecological crises are considered fundamental threats to human health. Healthcare workers in general and doctors in particular can contribute as change agents in mitigation and adaptation. Planetary health education (PHE) aims to harness this potential. This study explores perspectives among stakeholders involved in PHE at German medical schools on the characteristics of high-quality PHE and compares them to existing PHE frameworks.

Methods

In 2021, we conducted a qualitative interview study with stakeholders from German medical schools involved in PHE. Three different groups were eligible: faculty members, medical students actively involved in PHE, and study deans of medical schools. Recruitment was performed through national PHE networks and snowball sampling. Thematic qualitative text analysis according to Kuckartz was used for the analysis. Results were systematically compared to three existing PHE frameworks.

Results

A total of 20 participants (13 female) from 15 different medical schools were interviewed. Participants covered a wide range of professional backgrounds and experience in PHE education. The analysis revealed ten key themes: (1) Complexity and systems thinking, (2) inter- and transdisciplinarity, (3) ethical dimension, (4) responsibility of health professionals, (5) transformative competencies including practical skills, (6) space for reflection and resilience building, (7) special role of students, (8) need for curricular integration, (9) innovative and proven didactic methods, and (10) education as a driver of innovation. Six of our themes showed substantial overlap with existing PHE frameworks. Two of our themes were only mentioned in one of the frameworks, and two others were not explicitly mentioned. Few important elements of the frameworks did not emerge from our data.

Conclusions

In the light of increased attention regarding the connections of the climate and ecological crises and health, our results can be useful for anyone working toward the integration of planetary health into medical schools' and any health professions' curricula and should be considered when designing and implementing new educational activities.

Overcoming the coupled climate and biodiversity crises and their societal impacts

Earth's biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities, and habitat loss, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, and society and develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C and effectively conserving and restoring functional ecosystems on 30 to 50% of land, freshwater, and ocean "scapes." We envision a mosaic of interconnected protected and shared spaces, including intensively used spaces, to strengthen self-sustaining biodiversity, the capacity of people and nature to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and nature's contributions to people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, and planetary health for a livable future urgently requires bold implementation of transformative policy interventions through interconnected institutions, governance, and social systems from local to global levels.

Green Labs: a guide to developing sustainable science in your organization

Scientific research plays a vital role for society, but carries a significant environmental footprint, involving intensive use of energy and resources. Scientists are well placed to understand the unfolding climate and ecological crises, but may not appreciate how heavily their research, and other work-related activities, contribute to emissions and pollution. With the consequences of climate change and ecological breakdown playing out in real time, scientists now have an important, urgent role to play in catalyzing solutions. Here, we explore how research organizations can reduce their environmental impact, share useful resources and encourage the global community to engage in making science more sustainable.

Health-Promoting and Sustainable Behavior in University Students in Germany: A Cross-Sectional Study

Health-promoting and sustainable behaviors, such as active transportation and sustainable diets, are associated with positive effects on human health and the environment. In order to unlock the potential of university students as key actors and multipliers, it is of interest to investigate their level of knowledge about the health effects of climate change and their willingness toward and implementation of health-promoting and sustainable behaviors. In November 2021, an online survey was conducted among students at the University of Regensburg, Germany. A total of 3756 participants (response rate 18%; mean age 23 years; 69% women) provided valid data. A large proportion of medical students (48%) considered themselves well-informed about the health-related effects of climate change, while only a small proportion (22%) of students within economic/computer/data sciences and law felt informed. Most participants knew about the impact of climate change on malnutrition (78%), but considerably fewer were aware of its impact on cardiovascular diseases (52%). Participants who considered themselves informed were consistently more willing to engage in climate-friendly behavior, and this willingness was also reflected in their actions, as they simultaneously promoted a healthy lifestyle. Across all academic disciplines, there is a strong need for knowledge transfer regarding topics that combine health and sustainable development.

Learning to treat the climate emergency together: social tipping interventions by the health community

Accelerating the decarbonisation of local and national economies is a profound public health imperative. As trusted voices within communities around the world, health professionals and health organisations have enormous potential to influence the social and policy landscape in support of decarbonisation. We assembled a multidisciplinary, gender-balanced group of experts from six continents to develop a framework for maximising the social and policy influence of the health community on decarbonisation at the micro levels, meso levels, and macro levels of society. We identify practical, learning-by-doing approaches and networks to implement this strategic framework. Collectively, the actions of health-care workers can shift practice, finance, and power in ways that can transform the public narrative and influence investment, activate socioeconomic tipping points, and catalyse the rapid decarbonisation needed to protect health and health systems.

Human development at the cost of the environment?-an application of planetary pressures-adjusted human development index in the lens of planetary boundaries

The human development index (HDI) was an important step toward a more human-oriented assessment of socioeconomic prosperity. Nevertheless, at the onset of the anthropocene, the environmental pillar of sustainable development is indispensable. This work aims to understand this conundrum of human development and its environmental cost or pressure through the use of the planetary pressures-adjusted human development index (PHDI) as well as introduce another modified version, planetary pressures, and inequality-adjusted human development index (PIHDI). PHDI incorporates two biophysical consumption-based indicators (CO₂ emissions and material footprint, MF) as a proxy of environmental pressures into traditionally socioeconomic development-focused HDI. This work spans 164 nations and 27 years (1990-2016). Various statistical techniques such as Pearson's correlation, hierarchical clustering (HCA), generalised additive modelling (GAM), data envelopment analysis (DEA), linear regression, and ARIMA forecasting have been used to explore interrelationships, non-linearity, efficiency analysis, and future projections (up to 2030) and delve into two scenarios: high human development and for human development permitted only within the two planetary boundaries (PBs) (viz. climate change and material footprint) and their consequences when exceeded. Though most of the countries with high PHDI and PIHDI scores are from the global north and have a high income, it is also possible to attain human development (i.e. increase PHDI and PIHDI scores) without overexploiting biophysical resources. From 2016, human development scores could increase by 55-63% (climate change) or 30-46% (material consumption) within a safe operating space in 2030. Without the required focus on the environment, aiming for a superior score in PHDI and PIHDI could result in 43-58% (CO₂ emissions) or 57-58% (material footprint) of countries that would exceed PB. Based on the outcome of this work, it can be recommended that governments and policymakers that it is well within the limits of feasibility as well as necessary to make human socioeconomic development aspire to sustainability to address the needs of humanity, while respecting the well-being of the surrounding biosphere.

Twin-screw extrusion molding of a cellulose-based vitrimer containing a crosslinkable macromolecular plasticizer

Cellulose-based vitrimers were prepared using a crosslinkable macromolecular plasticizer and acetylated carboxymethyl cellulose via twin-screw extrusion. The cellulose-based material was toughened by the entanglement between the macromolecular plasticizer segments, and the exudation of the plasticizer was avoided by crosslinking. The prepared materials exhibited excellent hydrophobicity and shape memory properties. The plasticizer was evidently effective, and the reprocessing was completed at 130 °C within 15 min. The materials could be reprocessed at a lower temperature over a short period of time without any obvious degradation. After reprocessing three times, the material performance did not decrease significantly, thus showing good potential for regeneration and recycling.

[Sustainability in private surgical practice-A narrative review]

BACKGROUND

Surgery is contributing to the climate crisis, not least in the outpatient sector. The present publication aims to identify the challenges this poses, and to provide clear, preferably evidence-based recommendations on environmental protection while simultaneously reducing costs.

METHOD

Narrative review with a non-systematic search and selection in PubMed/MEDLINE and grey area literature as well as expert interviews.

RESULTS

Numerous primary articles, evidence syntheses, practical recommendations for action and checklists were identified and two experts were interviewed. Environmental issues were identified in the production and procurement, transport of people and goods, usage of materials, pharmaceuticals including anesthetic gases and energy consumption in the outpatient practice and also in disposal, recycling, and sterilization. High-quality publications do not describe a lack of knowledge on alternatives but on a lack of implementation in clinical practice. Therefore, the identified issues were classified in the 5‑R scheme (reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink, research) to present recommendations for action, which are synergetic in terms of cost reduction, patient and staff satisfaction. Furthermore, changes in regulatory frameworks are discussed.

CONCLUSION

Outpatient surgery comes with relevant consumption of resources and carbon emissions. There are numerous opportunities for action that combine environmental protection with cost reduction as well as patient and staff satisfaction. Incentives, guidelines, and legal framework conditions are needed for comprehensive environmental protection in the private sector.

The Planetary Health Academy-a virtual lecture series for transformative education in Germany

The planetary crises require health professionals to understand the interlinkages between health and environmental changes, and how to reduce ecological harm (ie, ecological footprint) and promote positive change (ie, ecological handprint). However, health professions' education and training are mostly lacking these aspects. In this Viewpoint, we report findings from the evaluation of the Planetary Health Academy, the first open online lecture series for transformative planetary health education in Germany. In a retrospective online survey, 458 of 3656 Planetary Health Academy participants reported on their emotions towards climate change, attitudes towards health professionals' responsibilities, self-efficacy, and the contribution of the Planetary Health Academy to their knowledge and actions. Additionally, motivators and barriers to acting were assessed. Our findings provide insights that can inform future efforts for transformative education. Combined with network and movement building, education could act as a social tipping element toward actions to mitigate global environmental changes.

Group identities can undermine social tipping after intervention

Social tipping can accelerate behaviour change consistent with policy objectives in diverse domains from social justice to climate change. Hypothetically, however, group identities might undermine tipping in ways that policymakers do not anticipate. To examine this, we implemented an experiment around the 2020 US federal elections. The participants faced consistent incentives to coordinate their choices. Once the participants had established a coordination norm, an intervention created pressure to tip to a new norm. Our control treatment used neutral labels for choices. Our identity treatment used partisan political images. This simple pay-off-irrelevant relabelling generated extreme differences. The control groups developed norms slowly before intervention but transitioned to new norms rapidly after intervention. The identity groups developed norms rapidly before intervention but persisted in a state of costly disagreement after intervention. Tipping was powerful but unreliable. It supported striking cultural changes when choice and identity were unlinked, but even a trivial link destroyed tipping entirely.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on research on marine plastic pollution - A bibliometric-based assessment

Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a dramatic increase in plastic waste, which has had a huge impact on the environment, including the marine environment. This work aims to evaluate the pattern of national research cooperation, research hotspots, and research evolution before and during the epidemic by systematically reviewing the publications on marine plastic pollution during 2015-2019 (before the pandemic) 2020-2022 (during the pandemic) using the systematic literature review and latent semantic analysis. The results show (i) Compared to pre-pandemic, publications on marine pollution during the COVID-19 pandemic declined briefly and then increased sharply. (ii) Compared with before the pandemic, the national cooperation model has changed during the pandemic, and four major research centers have been formed: Central European countries centered on Italy; Nordic countries centered on United Kingdom; South Korea, India and other developing countries in Asia and Africa and a Pacific Rim country centered on United States and China. (iii) The knowledge map of keyword clustering does not change significantly before and during the COVID-19: ecosystem, spatial distribution, environmental governance and biodegradation. However, there are differences in the sub-category research of the four types of keywords. (iv) The impact of marine plastic on organisms and the governance of marine plastic pollution have become a branch of knowledge that have evolved rapidly during the pandemic. The governance of marine plastic pollution and microplastics are expected to become an important research direction.

Ecological Effect Assessment of Low-Carbon City Construction in China

This paper takes the second batch of low-carbon pilot cities in China as the research object and selects the Urban Health Ecological Index to measure the green development level of cities, aiming to explore and evaluate the theoretical mechanism and policy effect of low-carbon pilot projects to promote the coordinated development of urban economy, society and the environment. The research conclusions show that: ① The low-carbon city pilot project is conducive to support the pilot cities to build a low-carbon industrial system, advocate a low-carbon lifestyle, establish a low-carbon evaluation system, and then play a positive role in promoting the green development level of the city; ② By applying the Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Differences (PSM-DID) model, the empirical analysis finds that after the implementation of the pilot policy, the green development level of low-carbon pilot cities has been significantly improved, and this conclusion is still stable in the parallel trend test, counterfactual test and sample expansion test; ③ In terms of regional heterogeneity, the low-carbon pilot projects have a more significant policy effect on promoting the green development of provincial capitals and eastern cities. Strict administrative supervision in provincial capitals and good economic foundations in eastern cities have had a positive moderating effect on the policy effect of low-carbon pilot projects. Finally, this paper discusses how to realize the ecological effects of low-carbon city pilot projects and put forward some relevant policy suggestions.

[Health and investment: How are the 237 billion euro of the German professional pension funds invested?]

BACKGROUND

Exceeding ecological limits through climate crisis, loss of biodiversity, altered biogeochemical cycles and novel substances is dangerous and leads to increased morbidity. Hence, financial assets should be divested from hazardous industries and re-allocated to support the transformation to an economy that keeps activities within ecological limits. The present study investigates how sustainability criteria are applied to the assets of German pension funds.

METHODS

A survey containing 26 items on 1) business practice, 2) implementation of sustainability strategies, 3) application of ESG criteria to investment decisions, and 4) projects and goals was sent to each and every of 93 German professional pension funds. Furthermore, their annual business reports and publications were analyzed for information on sustainability efforts.

RESULTS

37 of 93 pension funds responded to our survey, 8 of them returned the query. All agreed that ESG criteria are part of their business culture. Predominantly, they adhere to common standards for sustainable investments (UNPRI [United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment], 75% approval); yet, they do not exclude the production of goods that are potentially harmful to health (e.g., tobacco and alcohol).

DISCUSSION

A minority of the participating pension funds agrees that ESG criteria are part of their business culture. However, only few of them provide information about their actual application. Nevertheless, there are pension funds that do not respect sustainability criteria in an appropriate way, and thus take unnecessary financial risks and invest in harmful industries.

Facilitating innovation diffusion in social networks using dynamic norms

Dynamic norms have recently emerged as a powerful method to encourage individuals to adopt an innovation by highlighting a growing trend in its uptake. However, there have been no concrete attempts to understand how this individual-level mechanism might shape the collective population behavior. Here, we develop a framework to examine this by encapsulating dynamic norms within a game-theoretic mathematical model for innovation diffusion. Specifically, we extend a network coordination game by incorporating a probabilistic mechanism where an individual adopts the action with growing popularity, instead of the standard best-response update rule; the probability of such an event captures the population's "sensitivity" to dynamic norms. Theoretical analysis reveals that sensitivity to dynamic norms is key to facilitating social diffusion. Small increases in sensitivity reduces the advantage of the innovation over status quo or the number of initial innovators required to unlock diffusion, while a sufficiently large sensitivity alone guarantees diffusion.

Scaling Up Change: A Critical Review and Practical Guide to Harnessing Social Norms for Climate Action

Anthropogenic carbon emissions have the potential to trigger changes in climate and ecosystems that would be catastrophic for the well-being of humans and other species. Widespread shifts in production and consumption patterns are urgently needed to address climate change. Although transnational agreements and national policy are necessary for a transition to a fully decarbonized global economy, fluctuating political priorities and lobbying by vested interests have slowed these efforts. Against this backdrop, bottom-up pressure from social movements and shifting social norms may offer a complementary path to a more sustainable economy. Furthermore, norm change may be an important component of decarbonization policies by accelerating or strengthening the impacts of other demand-side measures. Individual actions and policy support are social processes—they are intimately linked to expectations about the actions and beliefs of others. Although prevailing social norms often reinforce the status quo and unsustainable development pathways, social dynamics can also create widespread and rapid shifts in cultural values and practices, including increasing pressure on politicians to enact ambitious policy. We synthesize literature on social-norm influence, measurement, and change from the perspectives of psychology, anthropology, sociology, and economics. We discuss the opportunities and challenges for the use of social-norm and social-tipping interventions to promote climate action. Social-norm interventions aimed at addressing climate change or other social dilemmas are promising but no panacea. They require in-depth contextual knowledge, ethical consideration, and situation-specific tailoring and testing to understand whether they can be effectively implemented at scale. Our review aims to provide practitioners with insights and tools to reflect on the promises and pitfalls of such interventions in diverse contexts.