1
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Freund J, Pauly M, Gochberg W, Dangremond EM, Korchinsky M. A novel deforestation risk and baseline allocation model for the next generation of nested REDD+ projects. Sci Rep 2024; 14:15138. [PMID: 38956081 PMCID: PMC11219893 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-65141-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Nature-based solutions that use a counterfactual scenario depend heavily on the methodology used to determine the business as usual (BAU) case, i.e., the "baseline." Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) projects traditionally set baselines using a "reference area" as a control for estimating BAU deforestation and emissions in the treatment (project) area. While the REDD+ market is shifting from project-based to nested approaches as countries increase their efforts to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris agreement's global climate target, methodologies for allocating national baselines are not yet formalized and tested, despite an urgent need to scale the market. We present a novel method for mapping deforestation risk and allocating national forest reference emission levels (FREL) to projects: baseline allocation for assessed risk (BAAR). This approach provides a spatial predictor of future deforestation using a dynamic vector, and a method for allocating a FREL to differentiated risk areas at the project level. Here, we present BAAR using 34 REDD+ projects in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). We demonstrate the importance of risk-based FREL allocations to balance fitness for purpose and scientific rigor. We show how BAAR can be used by governments to focus voluntary carbon market finance in areas at highest risk of imminent deforestation, while maintaining alignment with nationally determined contribution (NDC) goals.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Maren Pauly
- Department of Research and Evaluation, Everland, New York City, NY, USA
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2
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Jones JPG. Scandal in the voluntary carbon market must not impede tropical forest conservation. Nat Ecol Evol 2024; 8:1203-1204. [PMID: 38831018 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-024-02442-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Julia P G Jones
- School of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK.
- Department of Biology, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
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3
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Vatn A, Pascual U, Chaplin-Kramer R, Termansen M, Arias-Arévalo P, Balvanera P, Athayde S, Hahn T, Lazos E. Incorporating diverse values of nature in decision-making-theory and practice. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20220315. [PMID: 38643788 PMCID: PMC11033051 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Values play a significant role in decision-making, especially regarding nature. Decisions impact people and nature in complex ways and understanding which values are prioritised, and which are left out is an important task for improving the equity and effectiveness of decision-making. Based on work done for the IPBES Values Assessment, this paper develops a framework to support analyses of how decision-making influences nature as well as whose values get prioritised. The framework is used to analyse key areas of environmental policy: a) the present model for nature protection in market economies, b) the role of valuation in bringing nature values into decisions, and c) values embedded in environmental policy instruments, exemplified by protected areas for nature conservation and payments for ecosystem services. The analyses show that environmental policies have been established as mere additions to decision-making structures that foster economic expansion, which undermines a wide range of nature's values. Moreover, environmental policies themselves are also focused on a limited set of nature's diverse values. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. Vatn
- Faculty of Landscape and Society, Department of International Environment and Development Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, 1432 Norway
| | - U. Pascual
- Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Spain, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, Sede Building 1, 1st floor, 48940 Leioa Spain
- IKERBASQUE, Basque Foundation for Science, Plaza Euskadi 5, 48009 Bilbao, Spain
- Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Mittelstrasse 43, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - R. Chaplin-Kramer
- Global Science, World Wildlife Fund, 131 Steuart Street, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA
- Institute on the Environment, St Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - M. Termansen
- Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - P. Arias-Arévalo
- Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Económicas, Universidad del ValleCiudad Universitaria Meléndez, Calle 13 # 100-00, Código postal 760042, Cali, Colombia
| | - P. Balvanera
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apdo. Postal 27-3, Santa Maria de Guido, 58090 Morelia Michoacán, Mexico
| | - S. Athayde
- Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies and Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University. 11200 SW 8th St, Miami, FL 33199, USA
| | - T. Hahn
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Universitetsv. 10A, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - E. Lazos
- Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Cd. Universitaria, 04510 Ciudad de México, Mexico
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4
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Forestry social science is failing the needs of the people who need it most. Nature 2024; 629:503. [PMID: 38750236 DOI: 10.1038/d41586-024-01411-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/18/2024]
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5
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Low S, Fritz L, Baum CM, Sovacool BK. Public perceptions on carbon removal from focus groups in 22 countries. Nat Commun 2024; 15:3453. [PMID: 38658623 PMCID: PMC11043362 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47853-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Carbon removal is emerging as a pillar of governmental and industry commitments toward achieving Net Zero targets. Drawing from 44 focus groups in 22 countries, we map technical and societal issues that a representative sample of publics raise on five major types of carbon removal (forests, soils, direct air capture, enhanced weathering, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage), and how these translate to preferences for governance actors, mechanisms, and rationales. We assess gaps and overlaps between a global range of public perceptions and how carbon removal is currently emerging in assessment, innovation, and decision-making. In conclusion, we outline key societal expectations for informing assessment and policy: prioritize public engagement as more than acceptance research; scrutiny and regulation of industry beyond incentivizing innovation; systemic coordination across sectors, levels, and borders; and prioritize underlying causes of climate change and interrelated governance issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean Low
- Department of Business Development and Technology, Aarhus University, Birk Centerpark 15, 7400, Herning, Denmark.
| | - Livia Fritz
- Department of Business Development and Technology, Aarhus University, Birk Centerpark 15, 7400, Herning, Denmark
| | - Chad M Baum
- Department of Business Development and Technology, Aarhus University, Birk Centerpark 15, 7400, Herning, Denmark
| | - Benjamin K Sovacool
- Department of Business Development and Technology, Aarhus University, Birk Centerpark 15, 7400, Herning, Denmark
- Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex Business School, Jubilee Building, Arts Rd, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9SL, UK
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
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6
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Enríquez-de-Salamanca Á. Environmental and social impacts of carbon sequestration. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2024. [PMID: 38651985 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4925] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2024] [Revised: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 03/21/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024]
Abstract
Climate change requires major mitigation efforts, mainly emission reduction. Carbon sequestration and avoided deforestation are complementary mitigation strategies that can promote nature conservation and local development but may also have undesirable impacts. We reviewed 246 articles citing impacts, risks, or concerns from carbon projects, and 78 others related to this topic. Most of the impacts cited focus on biodiversity, especially in afforestation projects, and on social effects related to avoided deforestation projects. Concerns were raised about project effectiveness, the permanence of carbon stored, and leakage. Recommendations include accounting for uncertainty, assessing both mitigation and contribution to climate change, defining permanence, creating contingency plans, promoting local projects, proposing alternative livelihoods, ensuring a fair distribution of benefits, combining timber production and carbon sequestration, ensuring sustainable development and minimizing leakage. A holistic approach that combines carbon sequestration, nature conservation, and poverty alleviation must be applied. The potential occurrence of negative impacts does not invalidate carbon projects but makes it advisable to conduct proper environmental impact assessments, considering direct and indirect impacts, minimizing the negative effects while maximizing the positive ones, and weighing the trade-offs between them to guide decision-making. Public participation and transparency are essential. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-27. © 2024 SETAC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Álvaro Enríquez-de-Salamanca
- Department of Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolution, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, San Lorenzo de El Escorial, Spain
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7
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Cariappa AAG, Konath NC, Sapkota TB, Krishna VV. Evaluating the potential and eligibility of conservation agriculture practices for carbon credits. Sci Rep 2024; 14:9193. [PMID: 38649375 PMCID: PMC11035690 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-59262-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2023] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Carbon credits, a voluntary market mechanism to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, can incentivize climate action. We evaluate the potential and eligibility of Conservation Agriculture (CA) practices for carbon credit generation in India under Verra's VM0042 methodology. Using farmer surveys and remote sensing data, we assess the eligibility based on the following conditions: Additionality Condition (GHG emission reductions to exceed legal requirements and the weighted mean adoption rate to be < 20% of area in the baseline), Yield Penalty Condition (no > 5% decrease in crop yields), and Quantitative Adjustment Condition (reduction in chemical fertilizer use by > 5%). Our analysis shows that CA has the potential to increase farmers' carbon credit earnings by USD 18/ha and USD 30/ha in Bihar and Punjab, respectively. Punjab's ban on crop residue burning and the fact that > 20% of the area unburned limits the full economic realization of CA through carbon markets, decreasing potential income to USD 16/ha. A 60% increase in carbon prices from the current norm (USD 25) is required to encourage wider adoption of CA. Zero tillage of wheat in both Punjab and Bihar and reduction of nitrogen fertilizer overuse in Punjab fulfil all the conditions and are eligible for carbon farming projects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adeeth A G Cariappa
- Sustainable Agri-Food Systems (SAS) Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), ICRISAT Campus, Hyderabad, India.
| | - Noufa C Konath
- Sustainable Agri-Food Systems (SAS) Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), ICRISAT Campus, Hyderabad, India
| | - Tek B Sapkota
- Sustainable Agri-Food Systems (SAS) Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), ICRISAT Campus, Hyderabad, India
| | - Vijesh V Krishna
- Sustainable Agri-Food Systems (SAS) Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), ICRISAT Campus, Hyderabad, India
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8
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Bernardino AF, Mazzuco ACA, Costa RF, Souza F, Owuor MA, Nobrega GN, Sanders CJ, Ferreira TO, Kauffman JB. The inclusion of Amazon mangroves in Brazil's REDD+ program. Nat Commun 2024; 15:1549. [PMID: 38438380 PMCID: PMC10912189 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45459-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/06/2024] Open
Abstract
The Legal Amazon of Brazil holds vast mangrove forests, but a lack of awareness of their value has prevented their inclusion into results-based payments established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Based on an inventory from over 190 forest plots in Amazon mangroves, we estimate total ecosystem carbon stocks of 468 ± 67 Megagrams (Mg) ha-1; which are significantly higher than Brazilian upland biomes currently included into national carbon offset financing. Conversion of mangroves results in potential emissions of 1228 Mg CO2e ha-1, which are 3-fold higher than land use emissions from conversion of the Amazon rainforest. Our work provides the foundation for the inclusion of mangroves in Brazil's intended Nationally Determined Contribution, and here we show that halting mangrove deforestation in the Legal Amazon would generate avoided emissions of 0.9 ± 0.3 Teragrams (Tg) CO2e yr-1; which is equivalent to the annual carbon accumulation in 82,400 ha of secondary forests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angelo F Bernardino
- Departamento de Oceanografia, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo, Av. Fernando Ferrari, 514, Goiabeiras, Vitória-ES, 29075-910, Brazil.
| | - Ana Carolina A Mazzuco
- Departamento de Oceanografia, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo, Av. Fernando Ferrari, 514, Goiabeiras, Vitória-ES, 29075-910, Brazil
- UNESCO/IOC Project Office for IODE, Flanders Marine Institute, InnovOcean Campus, Oostende, Belgium
| | - Rodolfo F Costa
- Department of Soil Science, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of Sao Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil
| | - Fernanda Souza
- Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Macapá, AP, Brazil
| | - Margaret A Owuor
- Wyss Academy for Nature at the University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Gabriel N Nobrega
- Departamento de Ciências do Solo, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, Brazil
| | - Christian J Sanders
- National Marine Science Centre, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, NSW, 2540, Australia
| | - Tiago O Ferreira
- Department of Soil Science, Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of Sao Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil
| | - J Boone Kauffman
- Department of Fisheires, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
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9
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Huber E, Bach V, Finkbeiner M. A qualitative meta-analysis of carbon offset quality criteria. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 352:119983. [PMID: 38183915 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2023] [Revised: 12/21/2023] [Accepted: 12/26/2023] [Indexed: 01/08/2024]
Abstract
Reaching climate neutrality and limiting the global average temperature increase to 1.5 °C, which are the main targets of the Paris Agreement, requires both mitigation measures and offsetting. Despite existing standards to ensure the credibility and effectiveness of carbon offsets, they face challenges associated with their quality. Incorrect replacement factors or baseline values used for the calculations can lead to credits being overestimated. The quality of carbon offsets and its assurance through offsetting standards are addressed in many publications that provide quality criteria that should be fulfilled. However, the abundance of studies and the unclear consistency of quality criteria for carbon offsets make it difficult to draw generalized conclusions. The fragmented understanding of offset quality and its contribution to climate neutrality requires a comprehensive analysis to identify prevailing consensus and areas needing further research. The paper aims to fill this gap by synthesizing existing criteria through a qualitative meta-analysis of the current literature. Consensus and discrepancies in the carbon offset quality criteria and the ratings of the offsetting programs were identified providing a holistic overview. While only the criteria 'additionality' and 'permanence' are consistently addressed in all publications, their definitions and associated aspects vary. Although consensus exists for the criterion 'ex-post', it only appears in 57% of the publications. Differences in definitions are not reflected in the program ratings. The analysis has several challenges, such as accommodating varying study scopes and methods. However, the results highlight the need for a common understanding and provide a baseline reference to enhance the quality assessment of offsets to effectively contribute to climate neutrality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elena Huber
- Department of Sustainable Engineering, Institute of Environmental Technology, Technische Universität Berlin, Strasse des 17. Juni 135, 10623, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Vanessa Bach
- Department of Sustainable Engineering, Institute of Environmental Technology, Technische Universität Berlin, Strasse des 17. Juni 135, 10623, Berlin, Germany.
| | - Matthias Finkbeiner
- Department of Sustainable Engineering, Institute of Environmental Technology, Technische Universität Berlin, Strasse des 17. Juni 135, 10623, Berlin, Germany.
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10
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Blanton A, Mohan M, Galgamuwa GAP, Watt MS, Montenegro JF, Mills F, Carlsen SCH, Valasquez-Camacho L, Bomfim B, Pons J, Broadbent EN, Kaur A, Direk S, de-Miguel S, Ortega M, Abdullah M, Rondon M, Wan Mohd Jaafar WS, Silva CA, Cardil A, Doaemo W, Ewane EB. The status of forest carbon markets in Latin America. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 352:119921. [PMID: 38219661 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119921] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2023] [Revised: 11/24/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 01/16/2024]
Abstract
Tropical rainforests of Latin America (LATAM) are one of the world's largest carbon sinks, with substantial future carbon sequestration potential and contributing a major proportion of the global supply of forest carbon credits. LATAM is poised to contribute predominantly towards high-quality forest carbon offset projects designed to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, halt biodiversity loss, and provide equitable conservation benefits to people. Thus, carbon markets, including compliance carbon markets and voluntary carbon markets continue to expand in LATAM. However, the extent of the growth and status of forest carbon markets, pricing initiatives, stakeholders, amongst others, are yet to be explored and extensively reviewed for the entire LATAM region. Against this backdrop, we reviewed a total of 299 articles, including peer-reviewed and non-scientific gray literature sources, from January 2010 to March 2023. Herein, based on the extensive literature review, we present the results and provide perspectives classified into five categories: (i) the status and recent trends of forest carbon markets (ii) the interested parties and their role in the forest carbon markets, (iii) the measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) approaches and role of remote sensing, (iv) the challenges, and (v) the benefits, opportunities, future directions and recommendations to enhance forest carbon markets in LATAM. Despite the substantial challenges, better governance structures for forest carbon markets can increase the number, quality and integrity of projects and support the carbon sequestration capacity of the rainforests of LATAM. Due to the complex and extensive nature of forest carbon projects in LATAM, emerging technologies like remote sensing can enable scale and reduce technical barriers to MRV, if properly benchmarked. The future directions and recommendations provided are intended to improve upon the existing infrastructure and governance mechanisms, and encourage further participation from the public and private sectors in forest carbon markets in LATAM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Austin Blanton
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea; Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Midhun Mohan
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea; Department of Geography, University of California - Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America.
| | - G A Pabodha Galgamuwa
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea
| | | | - Jorge F Montenegro
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea; University of Liverpool Management School, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; School of Engineering, Fundación Universitaria Compensar, Bogota, Colombia
| | - Freddie Mills
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea
| | | | - Luisa Valasquez-Camacho
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Unit of Applied Artificial Intelligence, Eurecat, Centre Tecnològic de Catalunya, 08005, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering, University of Lleida, 25198 Lleida, Spain
| | - Barbara Bomfim
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America
| | - Judith Pons
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea
| | - Eben North Broadbent
- School of Forest, Fisheries, and Geomatics Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America
| | - Ashpreet Kaur
- Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea; School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America
| | - Seyide Direk
- Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea; European Enterprise Alliance/ United Nations Development Programme, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Sergio de-Miguel
- Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering, University of Lleida, 25198 Lleida, Spain; Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia (CTFC), 25280 Solsona, Spain
| | - Macarena Ortega
- Forest Fire Laboratory (LABIF). Department of Forest Engineering. University of Cordoba, 14071, Cordoba, Spain
| | - Meshal Abdullah
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Department of Geography, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman; Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States of America
| | - Marcela Rondon
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea
| | - Wan Shafrina Wan Mohd Jaafar
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Earth Observation Centre, Institute of Climate Change, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Carlos Alberto Silva
- Forest Biometrics and Remote Sensing Lab (Silva Lab) - School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, United States of America
| | - Adrian Cardil
- Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering, University of Lleida, 25198 Lleida, Spain; Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia (CTFC), 25280 Solsona, Spain; Tecnosylva, S.L Parque Tecnológico de León, 24004, León, Spain
| | - Willie Doaemo
- Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea; Department of Civil Engineering, Papua New Guinea University of Technology, Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea
| | - Ewane Basil Ewane
- Ecoresolve, San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Morobe Development Foundation (via United Nations Volunteering Program), Lae, 00411, Papua New Guinea; Department of Geography, Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, University of Buea, P.O. BOX 63, Buea, Cameroon
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11
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Meena DP, Bhandari K, Ghosh SM. Implication of the new VCS jurisdictional and nested REDD methodology on baselines of existing avoided deforestation projects. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 351:119857. [PMID: 38109829 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2023] [Revised: 12/10/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023]
Abstract
A changing climate is poised to inflict massive-scale damage through extreme weather events. Preserving Earth's forests stands out as a critical resource in our battle to mitigate climate change. One pivotal approach for this endeavour is the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD), a climate change mitigation solution currently being enacted through locally-based projects certified by the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) Association. Nevertheless, these REDD projects have recently faced severe scrutiny for potentially overemphasizing their effectiveness. To address these concerns, the VCS has put forth a new jurisdictional and nested REDD methodology. This study, therefore, aims to assess the impact of the new REDD methodology on the baseline measurements of existing REDD projects within the VCS registry. For this assessment, we selected four REDD projects, each spanning across four continents and encompassing two major forest types. An in-depth analysis of these four projects reveals a noteworthy trend: under the new methodology, three of them are projected to experience a substantial reduction in the number of issued credits compared to the previous methodologies. Consequently, it appears that the new REDD methodology holds promise in generating higher-quality credits by reducing the potential for an inflated baseline.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Konica Bhandari
- Center of Studies in Resources Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, PIN - 400076, India
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12
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Teo HC, Tan NHL, Zheng Q, Lim AJY, Sreekar R, Chen X, Zhou Y, Sarira TV, De Alban JDT, Tang H, Friess DA, Koh LP. Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8277. [PMID: 38092814 PMCID: PMC10719246 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44127-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Carbon credits generated through jurisdictional-scale avoided deforestation projects require accurate estimates of deforestation emission baselines, but there are serious challenges to their robustness. We assessed the variability, accuracy, and uncertainty of baselining methods by applying sensitivity and variable importance analysis on a range of typically-used methods and parameters for 2,794 jurisdictions worldwide. The median jurisdiction's deforestation emission baseline varied by 171% (90% range: 87%-440%) of its mean, with a median forecast error of 0.778 times (90% range: 0.548-3.56) the actual deforestation rate. Moreover, variable importance analysis emphasised the strong influence of the deforestation projection approach. For the median jurisdiction, 68.0% of possible methods (90% range: 61.1%-85.6%) exceeded 15% uncertainty. Tropical and polar biomes exhibited larger uncertainties in carbon estimations. The use of sensitivity analyses, multi-model, and multi-source ensemble approaches could reduce variabilities and biases. These findings provide a roadmap for improving baseline estimations to enhance carbon market integrity and trust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hoong Chen Teo
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Nicole Hui Li Tan
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Qiming Zheng
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR
| | - Annabel Jia Yi Lim
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Rachakonda Sreekar
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- School of the Environment, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Xiao Chen
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yuchuan Zhou
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Tasya Vadya Sarira
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Jose Don T De Alban
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Hao Tang
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Daniel A Friess
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
| | - Lian Pin Koh
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
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13
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Dhawan A, Rammelkamp Z, Kayandabila J, Surapaneni VL. Ethical Considerations of Climate Justice and International Air Travel in Short-Term Electives in Global Health. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2023; 109:506-510. [PMID: 37549896 PMCID: PMC10484251 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.22-0508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2022] [Accepted: 05/21/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023] Open
Abstract
In July 2022, the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Green Task Force advocated to acknowledge the health impacts of climate change, particularly on those in low- and middle-income countries, and called on global health organizations to act. Simultaneously, academic medical centers are resuming Short-Term Electives in Global Health (STEGH) as travel restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic ease in most countries. International flights by trainees from academic medical centers in high-income countries (HIC) on these electives encapsulate the climate injustice of who generates carbon emissions and who bears the impacts of climate change. Using "decolonization" and "decarbonization" as guiding principles, we suggest several strategies that global medical education programs in HIC could implement. First, restructure rotations to halt STEGH with minimal benefit to host institutions, optimize trainee activities while abroad, and lengthen rotation duration. Second, programs can calculate the carbon impact of their STEGH and implement concrete measures to cut emissions. Finally, we urge academic medical centers to promote climate-resilient healthcare infrastructure in host countries and advocate for climate solutions on the global stage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adriana Dhawan
- Division of Hospital Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| | - Zoe Rammelkamp
- Division of Hospital Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| | - Johnstone Kayandabila
- Arusha Lutheran Medical Centre, Arusha, Tanzania
- Eastern and Southern Africa Management Institute, Arusha, Tanzania
- London School of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, London, United Kingdom
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14
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Pauly M. Recent challenges in the retrospective evaluation of forest carbon credit baselines. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2023; 19:1394-1397. [PMID: 37641447 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4801] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Maren Pauly
- Everland LLC, Department of Project Evaluation and Research, Brooklyn, New York, USA
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15
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West TAP, Wunder S, Sills EO, Börner J, Rifai SW, Neidermeier AN, Frey GP, Kontoleon A. Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation. Science 2023; 381:873-877. [PMID: 37616370 DOI: 10.1126/science.ade3535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2022] [Accepted: 07/07/2023] [Indexed: 08/26/2023]
Abstract
Carbon offsets from voluntary avoided-deforestation projects are generated on the basis of performance in relation to ex ante deforestation baselines. We examined the effects of 26 such project sites in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We found that most projects have not significantly reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. This reflects differences between the project ex ante baselines and ex post counterfactuals according to observed deforestation in control areas. Methodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thales A P West
- Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Sven Wunder
- European Forest Institute (EFI), Barcelona, Spain
- Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Lima, Peru
| | - Erin O Sills
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA
| | - Jan Börner
- Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
- Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Sami W Rifai
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Alexandra N Neidermeier
- Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Gabriel P Frey
- Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Andreas Kontoleon
- Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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16
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Mori AS, Suzuki KF, Hori M, Kadoya T, Okano K, Uraguchi A, Muraoka H, Sato T, Shibata H, Suzuki-Ohno Y, Koba K, Toda M, Nakano SI, Kondoh M, Kitajima K, Nakamura M. Perspective: sustainability challenges, opportunities and solutions for long-term ecosystem observations. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220192. [PMID: 37246388 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2022] [Accepted: 04/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
As interest in natural capital grows and society increasingly recognizes the value of biodiversity, we must discuss how ecosystem observations to detect changes in biodiversity can be sustained through collaboration across regions and sectors. However, there are many barriers to establishing and sustaining large-scale, fine-resolution ecosystem observations. First, comprehensive monitoring data on both biodiversity and possible anthropogenic factors are lacking. Second, some in situ ecosystem observations cannot be systematically established and maintained across locations. Third, equitable solutions across sectors and countries are needed to build a global network. Here, by examining individual cases and emerging frameworks, mainly from (but not limited to) Japan, we illustrate how ecological science relies on long-term data and how neglecting basic monitoring of our home planet further reduces our chances of overcoming the environmental crisis. We also discuss emerging techniques and opportunities, such as environmental DNA and citizen science as well as using the existing and forgotten sites of monitoring, that can help overcome some of the difficulties in establishing and sustaining ecosystem observations at a large scale with fine resolution. Overall, this paper presents a call to action for joint monitoring of biodiversity and anthropogenic factors, the systematic establishment and maintenance of in situ observations, and equitable solutions across sectors and countries to build a global network, beyond cultures, languages, and economic status. We hope that our proposed framework and the examples from Japan can serve as a starting point for further discussions and collaborations among stakeholders across multiple sectors of society. It is time to take the next step in detecting changes in socio-ecological systems, and if monitoring and observation can be made more equitable and feasible, they will play an even more important role in ensuring global sustainability for future generations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Akira S Mori
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Komaba 4-6-1, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan
- Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama, Kanagawa 240-8501, Japan
| | - Kureha F Suzuki
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Komaba 4-6-1, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan
- Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama, Kanagawa 240-8501, Japan
| | - Masakazu Hori
- Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, 6F Technowave100, 1-1-25 Shin-urashima, Kanagawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 221-8529, Japan
| | - Taku Kadoya
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Kotaro Okano
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Komaba 4-6-1, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan
| | - Aya Uraguchi
- Conservation International Japan, 1-17 Yotsuya, Shinjuku, Tokyo 160-0014, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Muraoka
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
- River Basin Research Center, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu City 501-1193, Japan
| | - Tamotsu Sato
- International Strategy Division, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8687, Japan
| | - Hideaki Shibata
- Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University, N9 W9, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0809, Japan
| | - Yukari Suzuki-Ohno
- Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aoba, Aramaki-aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8578, Japan
| | - Keisuke Koba
- Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Hirano 2-509-3, Otsu, Shiga 520-2113, Japan
| | - Mariko Toda
- Kokusai Kogyo Co., Ltd. Shinjuku Front Tower, 21-1, Kita-Shinjuku 2-chome, Shinjukuku, Tokyo 169-0074, Japan
| | - Shin-Ichi Nakano
- Center for Ecological Research, Kyoto University, Hirano 2-509-3, Otsu, Shiga 520-2113, Japan
| | - Michio Kondoh
- Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku University, 6-3 Aoba, Aramaki-aza, Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8578, Japan
| | - Kaoru Kitajima
- Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan
| | - Masahiro Nakamura
- Tomakomai Experimental Forest, Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University, Takaoka, Tomakomai, Hokkaido 053-0035, Japan
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17
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Groom B, Venmans F. The social value of offsets. Nature 2023:10.1038/s41586-023-06153-x. [PMID: 37407820 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06153-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2022] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 07/07/2023]
Abstract
It is unclear how much carbon should be stored in temporary and risky offsets to compensate one ton of CO2 emissions. Here we cast the social value of an offset (SVO), measured in terms of economic damages avoided, as a well-defined fraction of the social cost of carbon reflecting offset duration, and risks of non-additionality and failure. The SVO reflects the value of temporary storage, and overcomes shortcomings in the climate science and economics of previous contributions1-4. The SVO is policy relevant. An efficient net-zero policy will consist of offsets if their SVO/cost ratio exceeds the benefit/cost ratio of alternatives. The SVO yields an indicator of the equivalence of offsets to permanent carbon storage measured by the ratio of the SVO to the social cost of carbon. We provide a matrix of equivalence factors for different risks, permanence and climate scenarios. Estimation yields a rule of thumb: one offset sequestering one ton for 50 years is equivalent to between 0.33 and 0.5 tons permanently locked away. Equivalence offers a means of replacing perpetual offset contracts by simpler, easy to monitor short-term contracts, has applications to carbon life cycle analysis5 and the valuation of carbon debts6, and can be the basis of comparing offsets of different qualities in the voluntary and compliance markets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Groom
- LEEP Institute, Department of Economics, University of Exeter Business School, Exeter, UK.
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
| | - Frank Venmans
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
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18
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Lamba A, Teo HC, Sreekar R, Zeng Y, Carrasco LR, Koh LP. Climate co-benefits of tiger conservation. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:1104-1113. [PMID: 37231303 PMCID: PMC10333118 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02069-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Biodiversity conservation is increasingly being recognized as an important co-benefit in climate change mitigation programmes that use nature-based climate solutions. However, the climate co-benefits of biodiversity conservation interventions, such as habitat protection and restoration, remain understudied. Here we estimate the forest carbon storage co-benefits of a national policy intervention for tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation in India. We used a synthetic control approach to model avoided forest loss and associated carbon emissions reductions in protected areas that underwent enhanced protection for tiger conservation. Over a third of the analysed reserves showed significant but mixed effects, where 24% of all reserves successfully reduced the rate of deforestation and the remaining 9% reported higher-than-expected forest loss. The policy had a net positive benefit with over 5,802 hectares of averted forest loss, corresponding to avoided emissions of 1.08 ± 0.51 MtCO2 equivalent between 2007 and 2020. This translated to US$92.55 ± 43.56 million in ecosystem services from the avoided social cost of emissions and potential revenue of US$6.24 ± 2.94 million in carbon offsets. Our findings offer an approach to quantitatively track the carbon sequestration co-benefits of a species conservation strategy and thus help align the objectives of climate action and biodiversity conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aakash Lamba
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Hoong Chen Teo
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Rachakonda Sreekar
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Yiwen Zeng
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Luis Roman Carrasco
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lian Pin Koh
- Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
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19
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Buřivalová Z, Yoh N, Butler RA, Chandra Sagar HSS, Game ET. Broadening the focus of forest conservation beyond carbon. Curr Biol 2023; 33:R621-R635. [PMID: 37279693 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2023.04.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Two concurrent trends are contributing towards a much broader view of forest conservation. First, the appreciation of the role of forests as a nature-based climate solution has grown rapidly, particularly among governments and the private sector. Second, the spatiotemporal resolution of forest mapping and the ease of tracking forest changes have dramatically improved. As a result, who does and who pays for forest conservation is changing: sectors and people previously considered separate from forest conservation now play an important role and need to be held accountable and motivated or forced to conserve forests. This change requires, and has stimulated, a broader range of forest conservation solutions. The need to assess the outcomes of conservation interventions has motivated the development and application of sophisticated econometric analyses, enabled by high resolution satellite data. At the same time, the focus on climate, together with the nature of available data and evaluation methods, has worked against a more comprehensive view of forest conservation. Instead, it has encouraged a focus on trees as carbon stores, often leaving out other important goals of forest conservation, such as biodiversity and human wellbeing. Even though both are intrinsically connected to climate outcomes, these areas have not kept pace with the scale and diversification of forest conservation. Finding synergies between these 'co-benefits', which play out on a local scale, with the carbon objective, related to the global amount of forests, is a major challenge and area for future advances in forest conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zuzana Buřivalová
- The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies and the Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
| | - Natalie Yoh
- The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies and the Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | | | - H S Sathya Chandra Sagar
- The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies and the Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Edward T Game
- The Nature Conservancy, South Brisbane, QLD 4101, Australia; School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
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20
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O. N, Miteva DA, Lee Y. Impact of Korea's emissions trading scheme on publicly traded firms. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0285863. [PMID: 37224151 PMCID: PMC10208515 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285863] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 05/02/2023] [Indexed: 05/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Reducing fossil fuel energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is vital to protecting life on the planet. Globally, emissions trading schemes are gaining traction as one way to curb emissions. However, the evidence of their effectiveness remains scarce. To address this gap, we examine the impact of Korea's Emissions Trading Scheme (KETS), the first nationally mandated cap-and-trade program in East Asia to reduce GHG emissions, relative to its pre-existing command-and-control regulation called the Target Management System for Greenhouse Gases and Energy (TMS). Using panel data for publicly traded firms between 2011 and 2017, we apply a combination of panel data estimators and matching methods. We find that KETS did not significantly reduce emissions by firms but may have improved the aggregate efficiency in energy use in the energy and manufacturing sectors. Given the low levels of noncompliance with the first phase of the policy, it is likely that firms purchased permits and offsets or used previously banked permits to meet policy targets. Our work is one of the first efforts to understand the impact of KETS and the mechanisms underpinning its impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nyonho O.
- Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America
| | - Daniela A. Miteva
- Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America
| | - Yehchan Lee
- Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States of America
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21
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Balmford A, Brancalion PHS, Coomes D, Filewod B, Groom B, Guizar-Couti Ño A, Jones JPG, Keshav S, Kontoleon A, Madhavapeddy A, Malhi Y, Sills EO, Strassburg BBN, Venmans F, West TAP, Wheeler C, Swinfield T. Credit credibility threatens forests. Science 2023; 380:466-467. [PMID: 37141376 DOI: 10.1126/science.adh3426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Balmford
- Department of Zoology and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
| | - Pedro H S Brancalion
- Department of Forest Sciences, University of São Paulo, 13.418-900 Piracicaba-SP, Brazil
| | - David Coomes
- Department of Plant Sciences and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK
| | - Ben Filewod
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AE, UK
| | - Ben Groom
- Land, Environment, Economics, and Policy Institute, Department of Economics, University of Exeter Business School, Exeter EX4 4PU, UK
| | - Alejandro Guizar-Couti Ño
- Department of Plant Sciences and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK
| | | | - Srinivasan Keshav
- Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0FD, UK
| | - Andreas Kontoleon
- Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9EP, UK
| | - Anil Madhavapeddy
- Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0FD, UK
| | - Yadvinder Malhi
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Erin O Sills
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-8008, USA
| | - Bernardo B N Strassburg
- Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Pontifical Catholic University, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Frank Venmans
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London WC2A 2AE, UK
| | - Thales A P West
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU UniversityAmsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Charlotte Wheeler
- Department of Plant Sciences and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK
| | - Tom Swinfield
- Department of Zoology and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
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22
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Trouwloon D, Streck C, Chagas T, Martinus G. Understanding the Use of Carbon Credits by Companies: A Review of the Defining Elements of Corporate Climate Claims. GLOBAL CHALLENGES (HOBOKEN, NJ) 2023; 7:2200158. [PMID: 37020630 PMCID: PMC10069309 DOI: 10.1002/gch2.202200158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Revised: 02/05/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
Worldwide, companies are increasingly making claims about their current climate efforts and their future mitigation commitments. These claims tend to be underpinned by carbon credits issued in voluntary carbon markets to offset emissions. Corporate climate claims are largely unregulated which means that they are often (perceived to be) misleading and deceptive. As such, corporate climate claims risk undermining, rather than contributing to, global climate mitigation. This paper takes as its point of departure the proposition that a better understanding of corporate climate claims is needed to govern such claims in a manner that adequately addresses potential greenwashing risks. To that end, the paper reviews the nascent literature on corporate climate claims relying on the use of voluntary carbon credits. Drawing on the reviewed literature, three key dimensions of corporate climate claims as related to carbon credits are discussed: 1) the intended use of carbon credits: offsetting versus non-offsetting claims; 2) the framing and meaning of headline terms: net-zero versus carbon neutral claims; and 3) the status of the claim: future aspirational commitments versus stated achievements. The paper thereby offers a preliminary categorization of corporate climate claims and discusses risks associated with and governance implications for each of these categories.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danick Trouwloon
- Climate FocusVan Diemenstraat 170Amsterdam1013 CPThe Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable DevelopmentUtrecht UniversityHeidelberglaan 2Utrecht3584 CSThe Netherlands
| | - Charlotte Streck
- Climate FocusSchwedter Strasse 23510119BerlinGermany
- University of PotsdamInternational Relations and International PoliticsAm neuen Palais 1014469PotsdamGermany
| | - Thiago Chagas
- University of Eastern FinlandUEF Law SchoolJoensuu campus. P.O. Box 111KuopioFI‐80101Finland
| | - Glenpherd Martinus
- Centre of Expertise Global and Inclusive LearningThe Hague2521 ENThe Netherlands
- The Hague University of Applied SciencesJohanna Westerdijkplein 75The Hague2521 ENThe Netherlands
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23
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Guizar-Coutiño A, Jones JPG, Balmford A, Carmenta R, Coomes DA. A global evaluation of the effectiveness of voluntary REDD+ projects at reducing deforestation and degradation in the moist tropics. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2022; 36:e13970. [PMID: 35713105 PMCID: PMC10086997 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2022] [Revised: 05/25/2022] [Accepted: 06/10/2022] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Abstract
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) projects aim to contribute to climate change mitigation by protecting and enhancing carbon stocks in tropical forests, but there have been no systematic global evaluations of their impact. We used a new data set for tropical humid forests and a standardized evaluation approach (based on pixel matching) to quantify the performance of a representative sample of 40 voluntary REDD+ projects in 9 countries certified under the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). In the first 5 years of implementation, deforestation within project areas was reduced by 47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24-68) compared with matched counterfactual pixels, and degradation rates were 58% lower (95% CI: 49-63). Reductions were small in absolute terms but greater in sites located in high-deforestation settings and did not appear to be substantially undermined by leakage activities in forested areas within 10 km of project boundaries. At the 26th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the international community renewed its commitment to tackling tropical deforestation as a nature-based solution to climate change. Our results indicate that incentivizing forest conservation through voluntary site-based projects can slow tropical deforestation and highlight the particular importance of prioritizing financing for areas at greater risk of deforestation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño
- Department of Plant Sciences and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Julia P G Jones
- School of Natural Sciences, College of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK
| | - Andrew Balmford
- Department of Zoology and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Rachel Carmenta
- Tyndall Centre and School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
| | - David A Coomes
- Department of Plant Sciences and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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24
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Coffield SR, Vo CD, Wang JA, Badgley G, Goulden ML, Cullenward D, Anderegg WRL, Randerson JT. Using remote sensing to quantify the additional climate benefits of California forest carbon offset projects. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6789-6806. [PMID: 36093912 PMCID: PMC9826164 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2022] [Revised: 01/20/2022] [Accepted: 07/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Nature-based climate solutions are a vital component of many climate mitigation strategies, including California's, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Most carbon offsets in California's cap-and-trade program come from improved forest management (IFM) projects. Since 2012, various landowners have set up IFM projects following the California Air Resources Board's IFM protocol. As many of these projects approach their 10th year, we now have the opportunity to assess their effectiveness, identify best practices, and suggest improvements toward future protocol revisions. In this study, we used remote sensing-based datasets to evaluate the carbon trends and harvest histories of 37 IFM projects in California. Despite some current limitations and biases, these datasets can be used to quantify carbon accumulation and harvest rates in offset project lands relative to nearby similar "control" lands before and after the projects began. Five lines of evidence suggest that the carbon accumulated in offset projects to date has generally not been additional to what might have otherwise occurred: (1) most forests in northwestern California have been accumulating carbon since at least the mid-1980s and continue to accumulate carbon, whether enrolled in offset projects or not; (2) harvest rates were high in large timber company project lands before IFM initiation, suggesting they are earning carbon credits for forests in recovery; (3) projects are often located on lands with higher densities of low-timber-value species; (4) carbon accumulation rates have not yet increased on lands that enroll as offset projects, relative to their pre-enrollment levels; and (5) harvest rates have not decreased on most project lands since offset project initiation. These patterns suggest that the current protocol should be improved to robustly measure and reward additionality. In general, our framework of geospatial analyses offers an important and independent means to evaluate the effectiveness of the carbon offsets program, especially as these data products continue improving and as offsets receive attention as a climate mitigation strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shane R Coffield
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Cassandra D Vo
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Jonathan A Wang
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Grayson Badgley
- Black Rock Forest, Cornwall, New York, USA
- CarbonPlan, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Michael L Goulden
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
| | - Danny Cullenward
- CarbonPlan, San Francisco, California, USA
- Institute for Carbon Removal Law and Policy, American University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | | | - James T Randerson
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA
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Pauly M, Tosteson J. Safeguarding natural forests through the voluntary REDD+ scheme. NATURE PLANTS 2022; 8:861-866. [PMID: 35927457 DOI: 10.1038/s41477-022-01208-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Maren Pauly
- Department of Project Impacts, Everland LLC, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Josh Tosteson
- Department of Project Impacts, Everland LLC, New York, NY, USA
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26
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Bousfield CG, Massam MR, Peres CA, Edwards DP. Carbon payments can cost-effectively improve logging sustainability in the Amazon. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 314:115094. [PMID: 35468435 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2021] [Revised: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 04/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Selective logging is pervasive across the tropics and unsustainable logging depletes forest biodiversity and carbon stocks. Improving the sustainability of logging will be crucial for meeting climate targets. Carbon-based payment for ecosystem service schemes, including REDD+, give economic value to standing forests and can protect them from degradation, but only if the revenue from carbon payments is greater than the opportunity cost of forgone or reduced logging. We currently lack understanding of whether carbon payments are feasible for protecting Amazonian forests from logging, despite the Amazon holding the largest unexploited timber reserves and an expanding logging sector. Using financial data and inventories of >660,000 trees covering 52,000 ha of Brazilian forest concessions, we estimate the carbon price required to protect forests from logging. We estimate that a carbon price of $7.90 per tCO2 is sufficient to match the opportunity costs of all logging and fund protection of primary forest. Alternatively, improving the sustainability of logging operations by ensuring a greater proportion of trees are left uncut requires only slightly higher investments of $7.97-10.45 per tCO2. These prices fall well below the current compliance market rate and demonstrate a cost-effective opportunity to safeguard large tracts of the Amazon rainforest from further degradation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher G Bousfield
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, United Kingdom.
| | - Mike R Massam
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, United Kingdom
| | - Carlos A Peres
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
| | - David P Edwards
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, United Kingdom.
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Abstract
This paper studies the feasibility of CORSIA’s carbon neutral growth goal based on verified carbon offsetting. It is motivated by an ongoing general debate about the climate and regulatory integrity of carbon offsetting, thus systematically identifying critical carbon offset characteristics. Using registry data from the largest carbon offset verifiers eligible under CORSIA, we show that the majority of carbon offsets have minor climate integrity. This challenges CORSIA’s neutral growth objective. However, unconditional offset price differentials are only weak signals for climate integrity. To increase environmental effectiveness, a narrower scope of eligibility rules is necessary in order to ensure maximum compliance of projects and strengthen the necessary price effect of carbon offsets. However, it is highly questionable whether there is enough potential supply of offsets to ensure such high integrity, indicating that carbon offsetting should be considered as a transitory measure only.
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Hyde M, Boron V, Rincón S, Viana DFP, Larcher L, Reginato GA, Payán E. Refining carbon credits to contribute to large carnivore conservation: The jaguar as a case study. Conserv Lett 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12880] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew Hyde
- Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USA
- Panthera New York New York USA
| | | | | | | | - Letícia Larcher
- Instituto Homem Pantaneiro, Ladeira José Bonifacio, Centro Corumbá Mato Grosso do Sul Brazil
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Badgley G, Freeman J, Hamman JJ, Haya B, Trugman AT, Anderegg WRL, Cullenward D. Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:1433-1445. [PMID: 34668621 PMCID: PMC9299598 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15943] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2021] [Accepted: 10/07/2021] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Carbon offsets are widely used by individuals, corporations, and governments to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions on the assumption that offsets reflect equivalent climate benefits achieved elsewhere. These climate-equivalence claims depend on offsets providing real and additional climate benefits beyond what would have happened, counterfactually, without the offsets project. Here, we evaluate the design of California's prominent forest carbon offsets program and demonstrate that its climate-equivalence claims fall far short on the basis of directly observable evidence. By design, California's program awards large volumes of offset credits to forest projects with carbon stocks that exceed regional averages. This paradigm allows for adverse selection, which could occur if project developers preferentially select forests that are ecologically distinct from unrepresentative regional averages. By digitizing and analyzing comprehensive offset project records alongside detailed forest inventory data, we provide direct evidence that comparing projects against coarse regional carbon averages has led to systematic over-crediting of 30.0 million tCO2 e (90% CI: 20.5-38.6 million tCO2 e) or 29.4% of the credits we analyzed (90% CI: 20.1%-37.8%). These excess credits are worth an estimated $410 million (90% CI: $280-$528 million) at recent market prices. Rather than improve forest management to store additional carbon, California's forest offsets program creates incentives to generate offset credits that do not reflect real climate benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Grayson Badgley
- Black Rock ForestCornwallNew YorkUSA
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisadesNew YorkUSA
| | | | - Joseph J. Hamman
- CarbonPlanSan FranciscoCaliforniaUSA
- National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - Barbara Haya
- Goldman School of Public PolicyUniversity of California, BerkeleyBerkeleyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Anna T. Trugman
- Department of GeographyUniversity of California, Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraCaliforniaUSA
| | | | - Danny Cullenward
- CarbonPlanSan FranciscoCaliforniaUSA
- Stanford Law SchoolStanfordCaliforniaUSA
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Carbon emissions reductions from Indonesia's moratorium on forest concessions are cost-effective yet contribute little to Paris pledges. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:2102613119. [PMID: 35074869 PMCID: PMC8812685 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2102613119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/13/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
International initiatives for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) could make critical, cost-effective contributions to tropical countries' nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Norway, a key donor of such initiatives, had a REDD+ partnership with Indonesia, offering results-based payments in exchange for emissions reductions calculated against a historical baseline. Central to this partnership was an area-based moratorium on new oil palm, timber, and logging concessions in primary and peatland forests. We evaluate the effectiveness of the moratorium between 2011 and 2018 by applying a matched triple difference strategy to a unique panel dataset. Treated dryland forest inside moratorium areas retained, at most, an average of 0.65% higher forest cover compared to untreated dryland forest outside the moratorium. By contrast, carbon-rich peatland forest was unaffected by the moratorium. Cumulative avoided dryland deforestation from 2011 until 2018 translates into 67.8 million to 86.9 million tons of emissions reductions, implying an effective carbon price below Norway's US$5 per ton price. Based on Norway's price, our estimated cumulative emissions reductions are equivalent to a payment of US$339 million to US$434.5 million. Annually, our estimates suggest a 3 to 4% contribution to Indonesia's NDC commitment of a 29% emissions reduction by 2030. Despite the Indonesia-Norway partnership ending in 2021, reducing emissions from deforestation remains critical for meeting this commitment. Future area-based REDD+ initiatives could build on the moratorium's outcomes by reforming its incentives and institutional arrangements, particularly in peatland forest areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kurt O. Reinhart
- United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Fort Keogh Livestock & Range Research Laboratory Miles City MT USA
| | | | - Matthew J. Rinella
- United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Fort Keogh Livestock & Range Research Laboratory Miles City MT USA
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Practical considerations for delivering on the sustainability promise of fermentation-based biomanufacturing. Emerg Top Life Sci 2021; 5:711-715. [PMID: 34495334 PMCID: PMC8726053 DOI: 10.1042/etls20210129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2021] [Revised: 08/18/2021] [Accepted: 08/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Increasingly, bio-based products made via sugar-powered microbial cell factories and industrial fermentation are reaching the market and presenting themselves as sustainable alternatives to fossil and animal-based products. The sustainability potential of biotechnology, however, has been shown to come with trade-offs and cannot be taken for granted. Shared environmental impact hotspots have been identified across industrial fermentation-based products, including biomass production, energy consumption, and end-of-life fate. Based on both these patterns and our direct experience in preparing for the commercial-scale production of Brewed Protein™, we outline practical considerations for improving the sustainability performance of bio-based products made via industrial fermentation.
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Kuschnig N, Cuaresma JC, Krisztin T, Giljum S. Spatial spillover effects from agriculture drive deforestation in Mato Grosso, Brazil. Sci Rep 2021; 11:21804. [PMID: 34750428 PMCID: PMC8575964 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-00861-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2021] [Accepted: 10/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Deforestation of the Amazon rainforest is a threat to global climate, biodiversity, and many other ecosystem services. In order to address this threat, an understanding of the drivers of deforestation processes is required. Spillover effects and factors that differ across locations and over time play important roles in these processes. They are largely disregarded in applied research and thus in the design of evidence-based policies. In this study, we model connectivity between regions and consider heterogeneous effects to gain more accurate quantitative insights into the inherent complexity of deforestation. We investigate the impacts of agriculture in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the period 2006-2017 considering spatial spillovers and varying impacts over time and space. Spillovers between municipalities that emanate from croplands in the Amazon appear as the major driver of deforestation, with no direct effects from agriculture in recent years. This suggests a moderate success of the Soy Moratorium and Cattle Agreements, but highlights their inability to address indirect effects. We find that the neglect of the spatial dimension and the assumption of homogeneous impacts lead to distorted inference. Researchers need to be aware of the complex and dynamic processes behind deforestation, in order to facilitate effective policy design.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikolas Kuschnig
- Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020, Vienna, Austria.
| | - Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
- Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020, Vienna, Austria
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC), Vienna, Austria
- Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna, Austria
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Stefan Giljum
- Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020, Vienna, Austria
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Carbon prospecting in tropical forests for climate change mitigation. Nat Commun 2021; 12:1271. [PMID: 33627656 PMCID: PMC7904812 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21560-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2020] [Accepted: 02/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Carbon finance projects that protect tropical forests could support both nature conservation and climate change mitigation goals. Global demand for nature-based carbon credits is outpacing their supply, due partly to gaps in knowledge needed to inform and prioritize investment decisions. Here, we show that at current carbon market prices the protection of tropical forests can generate investible carbon amounting to 1.8 (±1.1) GtCO2e yr−1 globally. We further show that financially viable carbon projects could generate return-on-investment amounting to $46.0b y−1 in net present value (Asia-Pacific: $24.6b y−1; Americas: $19.1b y−1; Africa: $2.4b y−1). However, we also find that ~80% (1.24 billion ha) of forest carbon sites would be financially unviable for failing to break even over the project lifetime. From a conservation perspective, unless carbon prices increase in the future, it is imperative to implement other conservation interventions, in addition to carbon finance, to safeguard carbon stocks and biodiversity in vulnerable forests. Investing in forest protection is a way to generate tradable carbon credits to support biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. Here the authors assess and map the global supply of tropical forest carbon credits with the goal of informing climate policy and investments.
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Fire Occurrences and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. REMOTE SENSING 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/rs13030376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
This work presents the dynamics of fire occurrences, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, forest clearing, and degradation in the Brazilian Amazon during the period 2006–2019, which includes the approval of the new Brazilian Forest Code in 2012. The study was carried out in the Brazilian Amazon, Pará State, and the municipality of Novo Progresso (Pará State). The analysis was based on deforestation and fire hotspot datasets issued by the Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE), which is produced based on optical and thermal sensors onboard different satellites. Deforestation data was also used to assess GHG emissions from the slash-and-burn practices. The work showed a good correlation between the occurrence of fires in the newly deforested area in the municipality of Novo Progresso and the slash-and-burn practices. The same trend was observed in the Pará State, suggesting a common practice along the deforestation arch. The study indicated positive coefficients of determination of 0.72 and 0.66 between deforestation and fire occurrences for the municipality of Novo Progresso and Pará State, respectively. The increased number of fire occurrences in the primary forest suggests possible ecosystem degradation. Deforestation reported for 2019 surpassed 10,000 km2, which is 48% higher than the previous ten years, with an average of 6760 km2. The steady increase of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon after 2012 has been a worldwide concern because of the forest loss itself as well as the massive GHG emitted in the Brazilian Amazon. We estimated 295 million tons of net CO2, which is equivalent to 16.4% of the combined emissions of CO2 and CH4 emitted by Brazil in 2019. The correlation of deforestation and fire occurrences reported from satellite images confirmed the slash-and-burn practice and the secondary effect of deforestation, i.e., degradation of primary forest surrounding the deforested areas. Hotspots’ location was deemed to be an important tool to verify forest degradation. The incidence of hotspots in forest area is from 5% to 20% of newly slashed-and-burned areas, which confirms the strong impact of deforestation on ecosystem degradation due to fire occurrences over the Brazilian Amazon.
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