Excelling at youth level in competitive track and field athletics is not a prerequisite for later success

Prospective and Retrospective Analysis of the Sporting Success of Elite Spanish High and Long Jumpers

The aim of the present study was to analyze the sporting progression from U14 to senior categories of elite Spanish high and long jumpers. For prospective analysis, 300 athletes ranked top 20 at U14 were analyzed (153 female and 147 male). For retrospective analysis, 64 athletes ranked in the top 20 in the senior category were included (21 female and 43 male). Ranking positions were registered in each of the seasons where they presented records. Only 6.3% (19) of athletes who reached the top 20 at U14 became successful senior athletes [4.7% (14) of athletes maintained top 20 status throughout their sporting careers from U14 to senior]. The transition rate from U14 to U16 (35.7%) was the most severe drop down in consecutive categories (after this, it ranged from 47.8 to 66.7%). Of the senior top 20 athletes (64), most of them were already ranked top 20 at U16 (59.4%, 38), at U18 (62.5%, 40), at U20 (70.3%, 45) and at U23 (78.1%, 50). Nevertheless, only 34.4% (22) were top 20 when they were U14 athletes. Transition rates in the top 20 senior athletes ranged from 86.7 to 95.5%. Around one out of four (26.6%, 17) of the top 20 senior athletes maintained top 20 status throughout their sporting careers from U14 to the senior category. Although early success is not a good predictor of senior success, successful senior athletes excelled early on and were able to remain in top rankings throughout their sporting careers of national elite jumpers.

Early Success is not a Prerequisite for Success at the Adult Age in Spanish Sprinters

The aim of the study was to describe the relationship between success in junior and senior categories in sprint events. An observational and longitudinal analysis was carried out using rankings of the Royal Spanish Athletics Federation database. We analysed 547 sprinters (238 women and 309 men) from their U14 to senior stage who ranked in top-20 on at least one occasion during the period 2004 to 2021. The first entry in top-20 occurred mostly in U14 (44.4%, 243), and the frequency was progressively lower: 26.7% (146) in U16; 20.8% (114) in U18; 5.1% (28) in U20; 2% (11) in U23; and 0.9% (5) in the senior category. A similar tendency was observed in male and female athletes. Only 3.8% (9) of top-20 U14 athletes reached the senior elite stage, increasing this percentage in subsequent categories: 7.4% (15) in U16; 10.6% (24) in U18; 20.9% (32) in U20, and 31.4% (32) from U23 to the senior category. Data from female athletes showed higher maintenance of top-20 status from early categories to senior age. We conclude that even though the first entry into the national top-20 in sprint events occurs early in most cases, success in these initial stages is not a prerequisite for reaching top-20 positions in the senior category.

Two Is Better than One: Successful World-Class Sprinters Compete in Two Disciplines

We aimed to quantify the prevalence of track and field sprinters competing at a world-class level in more than one discipline, and we describe the career characteristics of single- and double-discipline athletes in terms of peak performance and the age of peak performance. The career performance of athletes ranked in the top 200 positions of the World Athletics database in the 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m were analyzed, i.e., 5514 career profiles (49.9% female). Using binomial proportion, we calculated how many competed in only one or more than one discipline. We also compared the peak performance and the age of peak performance of athletes who competed in one vs. more than one discipline. Independent of gender, about 50% of the athletes competing in the 100 m and 200 m also competed in the other discipline (i.e., 200 m and 100 m, respectively). Differently, only 20% of the athletes competing in the 400 m also competed in the 200 m. Sprinters competing in the 100-200 m and 200-400 m couples showed better peak performance than the sprinters competing in only one discipline. Many world-class sprinters compete in two disciplines, and the 100-200 m was the most prevalent couple. Our results also suggest that sprinters who compete in two disciplines may be advantaged compared to sprinters who compete in only one event.

Potential estimation model in French alpine skiing - Individual evolution curve and progression typology

Estimating the potential of alpine skiers is an unresolved question, especially because of the complexity of sports performance. We developed a potential estimation model based solely on the evolution of performance as a function of age. A bayesian mixed model allowed to estimate the potential curve and the age at peak performance for the population (24.81 ± 0.2) and for each individual as the uncertainty around this curve. With Gaussian mixtures, we identified among all the estimates four types of curves, clustered according to the performance level and the progression per age. Relying on the uncertainty calculated on the progression curve the model created also allow to estimate a score and an uncertainty associated with each cluster for all individuals. The results allows to: i) describe and explain the relationship between age and performance in alpine skiing from a species point of view (at 0.87%) and ii) to provide to sport staffs the estimation of the potential of each individual and her/his typology of progression to better detect sports potential. The entire methodology is based on age and performance data, but the progression identified may depend on parameters specific to alpine skiing.

Youth Sports Specialization and Its Effect on Professional, Elite, and Olympic Athlete Performance, Career Longevity, and Injury Rates: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Limited data are available on the long-term consequences of early sports specialization in high-level athletes.

PURPOSE

To evaluate the existing literature on the effects of sports specialization among professional, Olympic, and other elite athletes.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review; Level of evidence, 3.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of studies from 1990 to 2021 on youth sports specialization in professional, elite, and/or Olympic athletes following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. An elite athlete was defined as one who performed at the highest level of his or her sport, beyond college level. Data were summarized according to 6 objectives: (1) definitions of specialization, age at specialization, and participation in other sports; (2) motivation for specialization; (3) athlete perspectives on specialization; (4) performance data; (5) specialization and injury risk; and (6) career longevity.

RESULTS

From 8756 articles, 29 studies were included, of which 17 (58.6%) were survey-based studies. Of the 8 articles that commented on injury risk, all demonstrated reduction in injury risk in athletes who delayed specialization. Performance benefits were apparent with later specialization in 7 of 9 articles; the remaining 2 showed benefit with earlier specialization in marathon runners and soccer players. There were less definitive results on career longevity, with 5 of 9 articles finding no association between career longevity and sports specialization.

CONCLUSION

Although current data on sports specialization in elite, professional, and Olympic athletes are mostly retrospective and survey-based evidence, most sports demonstrate better performance after youth multisport engagement, and youth sports specialization was linked with increased injury risk in athletes at the highest levels of competition.

Is there stability in the performance of elite half-marathoners?

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance stability of elite half-marathoners of both sexes. The study was composed of 24 elite athletes (12 female and 12 male), ranked among the Senior World TOP20 half-marathoners, who completed a half-marathon race for at least three consecutive years. Tracking was tested using autocorrelations and Kappa Cohen. Autocorrelation revealed a significant association, but a decrease in correlation among the years in both sexes. The overall weighted kappa showed lower stability in performance for both sexes (K ​= ​0.191 and K ​= ​−0.245) than for males. These findings suggest that both female and male elite half-marathoners showed low stability in performance during three events. Besides that, athletes with a better performance tended to present the highest performance stability. It is recommended that coaches track the developmental trajectories of the athletes to comprised the changes in performance across the years, as to provide environmental characteristics that can influence performance.

THE EARLY WARNING MODEL OF TRACK AND FIELD SPORTS BASED ON RBF NEURAL NETWORK ALGORITHM

ABSTRACT Background: Athletics plays a very important role in competitive sports. The strength of track and field directly represents the level of a country's sports competition. Objective: This work aimed to study the track and field sports forewarning model based on radial basis function (RBF) neural networks. One hundred outstanding athletes were taken as the research objects. The questionnaire survey method was adopted to count athletes’ injury risk factors, and coaches were consulted to evaluate the questionnaire's overall quality, structure, and content. Methods: A track and field early warning model based on RBF neural network is established, and the results are analyzed. Results: The results showed that the number of people who thought the questionnaire was relatively complete (92%) was considerably higher than that of very complete (2%) and relatively complete (6%) (P<0.05). The number of people who thought that the questionnaire structure was relatively perfect (45%) was notably higher than that of the very perfect (18%) (P<0.05). The semi-reliability test result suggested that the questionnaire reliability was 0.85. Tests on ten samples showed that the RBF neural network model error and the actual results were basically controlled between −0.04~0.04. Conclusions: After the sample library test, the track and field sports forewarning model under RBF neural network can obtain relatively favorable results. Level of evidence II; Therapeutic studies - investigation of treatment results.

Corrective procedures remove relative age effect from world-class junior sprinters

This retrospective study investigated whether corrective adjustment procedures can remove the relative age effect (RAE) from world-class junior sprinters at the beginning of their career. A total of 2,918 male and 3,029 female athletes competing in sprint races (100 m, 200 m, and 400 m) of the World Athletics lists between 2000 and 2018 were considered. Longitudinal quadratic trendline equations across ages 16-25 yrs were calculated considering athletes' exact age and respective performance. Corrective adjustment calculations from the estimated longitudinal quadratic equations were applied at 16 yrs and 17 yrs. RAE was investigated for the whole sample and top-level athletes (i.e., first Top50 and Top100) considering the uncorrected and corrected performance. Moderate to large RAE was observed in Top50 and Top100 at 16 yrs. Differently, a lower RAE was observed at 17 yrs. When re-examining the data using the corrective adjustment calculations, the RAE disappeared in all sprint events and both genders at 16 yrs, while a more equal distribution was observed at 17 yrs. Corrective adjustment procedures can remove or at least reduce the RAE in world-class sprinters. Applying simple equations based on exact age might improve the accuracy of performance evaluation and talent identification in international track and field sprint competitions.

Injuries and Training Practices in Competitive Adolescent Distance Runners: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Distance running is one of the most popular sports around the world. The epidemiology of running-related injury (RRI) has been investigated in adults, but few studies have focused on adolescent distance runners. Objectives: (1) To provide descriptive epidemiology of RRI (risks, rates, body regions/areas, and severity) and examine the training practices (frequency, volume, and intensity) of competitive adolescent distance runners (13-18 years) in England, and (2) to describe potential risk factors of RRI. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was used. Adolescent distance runners (n = 113) were recruited from England Athletics affiliated clubs. Participants voluntarily completed an online questionnaire between April and December 2018. At the time of completion, responses were based on the participant's previous 12-months of distance running participation. Incidence proportions (IP) and incidence rates (IR) were calculated. Results: The IP for "all RRI" was 68% (95% CI: 60-77), while the IR was 6.3/1,000 participation hours (95% CI: 5.3-7.4). The most commonly injured body areas were the knee, foot/toes, and lower leg; primarily caused by overuse. The number of training sessions per week (i.e., frequency) significantly increased with chronological age, while a large proportion of participants (58%) self-reported a high level of specialisation. Conclusions: RRI is common in competitive adolescent distance runners. These descriptive data provide guidance for the development of RRI prevention measures. However, analytical epidemiology is required to provide better insight into potential RRI risk factors in this specific population.

World-Class Sprinters’ Careers: Early Success Does Not Guarantee Success at Adult Age

Purpose: To quantify how many of the top 50 under-18 (U18) sprinters in the world managed to become top 50 ranked as adult competitors. The authors also described the career trajectory of athletes ranked in the top 50 during either U18 or senior category. Methods: A total of 4924 male and female athletes competing in sprint races and ranked in the International Association of Athletics Federations (now World Athletics) lists in any of the seasons between the 2000 and 2018 were included in the study. The athletes ranked in the top 50 positions of all-time lists during U18, senior, or both categories were analyzed. Results: Only 17% of the male and 21% of the female top 50 ranked U18 managed to become top 50 ranked senior athletes. The top 50 ranked senior athletes consistently produced yearly larger improvements during late adolescence and early adulthood compared with those who ranked in the top 50 at U18. Furthermore, top 50 ranked senior athletes reached their peak performance later compared with the top 50 ranked only in U18. Conclusions: This study confirms that early success in track and field is not a good predictor of success at senior level in sprinting events. The yearly performance improvements and their tracking provide the most suitable approach to identify athletes more likely to succeed as elite performers in adulthood. The authors hope that the results of this study can provide useful comparative data and reference criteria for talent-identification and -development programs.

Elite Junior Throwers Unlikely to Remain at the Top Level in the Senior Category

PURPOSE

This study investigated (1) the transition rate of elite world-class throwers, (2) the age of peak performance in either elite junior and/or elite senior athletes, and (3) if relative age effect (RAE) influences the chance of being considered elite in junior and/or senior category.

METHODS

The career performance trajectories of 5108 throwers (49.9% females) were extracted from the World Athletics database. The authors identified throwers who had reached the elite level (operationally defined as the World all-time top 50 ranked for each age category) in either junior and/or senior category and calculated the junior-to-senior transition rate. The age of peak performance and the RAE were also investigated.

RESULTS

The transition rate at 16 and 18 years of age was 6% and 12% in males and 16% and 24% in females, respectively. Furthermore, elite senior throwers reached their personal best later in life than elite junior throwers. The athletes of both genders considered elite in the junior category showed a large RAE. Interestingly, male athletes who reached the elite level in senior category also showed appreciable RAE.

CONCLUSIONS

Only a few of the athletes who reach the top 50 in the world at 16 or 18 years of age manage to become elite senior athletes, underlining that success at the beginning of an athletic career does not predict success in the athlete's senior career. Moreover, data suggest that being relatively older may confer a benefit across the whole career of male throwers.

Prevalence and burden of health problems in competitive adolescent distance runners: A 6-month prospective cohort study

To describe all health problems (injuries and illnesses) in relation to type, location, incidence, prevalence, time loss, severity, and burden, in competitive adolescent distance runners in England. Prospective observational study: 136 competitive adolescent distance runners (73 female athletes) self-reported all health problems for 24-weeks between May and October 2019. Athletes self-reported health problems using the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Centre Questionnaire on Health Problems. The incidence of running-related injury per 1,000 hours of exposure was markedly higher, compared to previous research. At any time, 24% [95% Confidence Intervals (CI): 21-26%] of athletes reported a health problem, with 11% [95% CI: 9-12%] having experienced a health problem that had substantial negative impact on training and performance. Female athletes reported noticeably more illnesses, compared to male athletes, including higher prevalence, incidence, time loss, and severity. The most burdensome health problems, irrespective of sex, included lower leg, knee, and foot/toes injuries, alongside upper respiratory illnesses. The mean weekly prevalence of time loss was relatively low, regardless of health problem type or sex. Competitive adolescent distance runners are likely to be training and competing whilst concurrently experiencing health problems. These findings will support the development of injury and illness prevention measures.

All-Time Best Norwegian Track and Field Athletes: to What Extent Did They Achieve Outstanding Results at the Ages of 15 and 18 Years?

The aim of the study was to determine how many Norwegian athletes who, during all the times they had achieved the European Athletics Championship 2020—Entry Standards (EAC20ES), were also ranked among the 20 all-time-best athletes at the ages of 15 and 18 years. The number of athletes who achieved the EAC20ES during their career, and the percentage of those who were among top 20 in the age groups 15 and 18 years, were determined from the Norwegian all-time-best results lists. A total of 202 athletes achieved the EAC20ES in the studied time period. Of these, 14.4% and 42.1% were ranked among the top 20 all-time best in one or more events at the ages of 15 and 18 years, respectively. However, among those who had won an international gold medal, these percentages were much higher. Eight out of 12 champions (66.7%) were ranked among the top 20 all-time best in one or more event at 15 years of age, and 11 of 12 champions (91.6%) were ranked among the top 20 all-time best at 18 years of age. Athletes that went on to win international championships typically performed better as adolescents compared to other athletes who also reach an international level as seniors. However, due to the low number of international champions, the date should be interpreted with caution.

Methodological Issues in Soccer Talent Identification Research

Talent identification research in soccer comprises the prediction of elite soccer performance. While many studies in this field have aimed to empirically relate performance characteristics to subsequent soccer success, a critical evaluation of the methodology of these studies has mostly been absent in the literature. In this position paper, we discuss advantages and limitations of the design, validity, and utility of current soccer talent identification research. Specifically, we draw on principles from selection psychology that can contribute to best practices in the context of making selection decisions across domains. Based on an extensive search of the soccer literature, we identify four methodological issues from this framework that are relevant for talent identification research, i.e. (1) the operationalization of criterion variables (the performance to be predicted) as performance levels; (2) the focus on isolated performance indicators as predictors of soccer performance; (3) the effects of range restriction on the predictive validity of predictors used in talent identification; and (4) the effect of the base rate on the utility of talent identification procedures. Based on these four issues, we highlight opportunities and challenges for future soccer talent identification studies that may contribute to developing evidence-based selection procedures. We suggest for future research to consider the use of individual soccer criterion measures, to adopt representative, high-fidelity predictors of soccer performance, and to take restriction of range and the base rate into account.

"I Didn't Make It, but…": Deselected Athletes' Experiences of the Talent Development Pathway

The experiences of youth athletes on specialized talent development pathways has received considerable attention in both the media and literature. Despite the low conversion of pathway entrants into senior athletes, the experiences of deselected athletes have received less attention. The purpose of this study therefore was to explore the talent pathway experiences of youth athletes who were deselected from a pathway and to consider how those experiences influenced their life post deselection. Ten participants were purposefully sampled based on their prior involvement in a formalized and selective talent programme. Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted, and data was analyzed via a thematic analysis. Participants identified constructs of the talent development environment, psychobehavioral skills for future development and personal responsibility for future development as facilitators for future success beyond the talent pathway. Specifically, environmental constructs, such as high performance support systems and expectations of professionalism positively contributed toward the acquisition of transferable psychobehavioral skills, such as a determination to be successful, a confidence to back oneself and social maturity. Youth athletes reported feeling empowered to take personal responsibility for development, through attributes such as a commitment to be the best they can be and an intrinsic motivation to succeed. These findings suggest positive experiences, built around the development of transferable skills and behaviors, can accrue from being on the talent pathway. As such, the talent pathway can be a successful foundation for both success in that sport and as a facilitator of success beyond sport.

Analysis of World Championship Swimmers Using a Performance Progression Model

Purpose

The primary aim was to create a performance progression model of elite competitors in the World Swimming Championships from 2006 to 2017 for all strokes and distances. Secondly, to identify the influence of annual ratios of progression, ages of peak performance and junior status on success in senior competitions.

Methods

Data regarding the participants of senior and junior World Championships (WCs) between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final filtered database, after removing those swimmers who just participated in junior WCs, included 4076. Statistical models were used to examine differences between the top senior swimmers (the top 30% best performances; T30) and lower level swimmers (the bottom 70% performances; L70) for minimum age (MA), progress (P) and best junior time (BJ). In order to identify the variables that contribute to reach the T30 group, a logistic regression (LR), stepwise LR and decision tree were applied. To analyze the effect of each variable separately, a simple LR (gross odds ratio) was performed. Ratio probabilities (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each variable.

Results

Swimmer’s BJ and P were higher in the T30 group (p < 0.000). The decision tree showed the greatest explanatory capacity for BJ, followed by P. The MA had a very low explanatory capacity and was not significant in the LR.

Conclusion

Swimmers with exceptional junior performance times, or have a high rate of progress are more likely to be successful at the senior WCs.

Contextual factors and sporting success: The relationship between birth date and place of early development on the progression of Jamaican track and field athletes from junior to senior level

Understanding determinants associated with dropout from sport is important for talent development. This study aimed (i) to determine dropout rates for Jamaican track and field athletes and (ii) to examine contextual factors (i.e., relative age effect and place of development) as potential determinants of junior athletes progressing to the senior level. A sample of 1552 track and field athletes (mean age 18.57±0.41 years) who were finalists at the national high school (junior) championships in Jamaica between 2000 and 2017 were evaluated from the Jamaica Athletics Administrative Association database. The database provided birth date, school attendance and performance results. A retrospective analysis was completed to investigate the relationship between junior and senior successes and dropout rates. Chi-square analyses were conducted to examine the distribution of birth date quartiles based on the selection year. Using the Jamaican census information, the population size of regions where participants attended school were categorized and used as a proxy for athletes’ place of development. Results showed that the majority of the participants did not progress to senior levels (81%). The relative age effect was evident for athletes who progressed to the senior level but was not evident for athletes who did not progress. There was a bias towards participants who attended school in regions with a population size between 5000–29 999. This study illuminates some of the contextual factors that may influence the likelihood of progressing from junior to senior levels which may help to inform talent identification, selection and development in the sport of track and field.

High-intensity endurance capacity assessment as a tool for talent identification in elite youth female soccer

Talent identification and development programmes have received broad attention in the last decades, yet evidence regarding the predictive utility of physical performance in female soccer players is limited. Using a retrospective design, we appraised the predictive value of performance-related measures in a sample of 228 youth female soccer players previously involved in residential Elite Performance Camps (age range: 12.7-15.3 years). With 10-m sprinting, 30-m sprinting, counter-movement jump height, and Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test Level 1 (IR1) distance as primary predictor variables, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) assessed the relative quality of four penalised logistic regression models for determining future competitive international squads U17-U20 level selection. The model including Yo-Yo IR1 was the best for predicting career outcome. Predicted probabilities of future selection to the international squad increased with higher Yo-Yo IR1 distances, from 4.5% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 8.2%) for a distance lower than 440 m to 64.7% (95% confidence interval, 47.3 to 82.1%) for a score of 2040 m. The present study highlights the predictive utility of high-intensity endurance capacity for informing career progression in elite youth female soccer and provides reference values for staff involved in the talent development of elite youth female soccer players.

Relative Age Influences Performance of World-Class Track and Field Athletes Even in the Adulthood

The relative age effect (RAE) is a common phenomenon observed in youth sports and is characterized by a significant over-representation of athletes born close to the date of selection. However, there is a lack of research on RAE in world-class track and field athletes and it is not clear if this effect persists into adulthood. Thus, this study examined for the first time the prevalence and magnitude of RAE at world class level in all track and field disciplines. Birthdates of 39,590 athletes (51.6% females) ranked in the International Association of Athletics Federations top 100 official lists between 2007 and 2018 season of Under 18, Under 20, and Senior categories were collected. Under 18 and Under 20 athletes born in the first week of the year are about 2 to 3.5 times more likely to be included in the top-100 ranking than the athletes born in the last week of the year. RAE was overall larger in male compared to female athletes. In some disciplines (e.g., throwing events) RAE persists in Senior category. These findings suggest that in some disciplines relatively younger athletes may have less chances of reaching world-class performances even in the adulthood. Governing bodies should reflect upon their policies for athlete support and selection to minimize the RAE.

Functional Data Analysis in Sport Science: Example of Swimmers’ Progression Curves Clustering

Many data collected in sport science come from time dependent phenomenon. This article focuses on Functional Data Analysis (FDA), which study longitudinal data by modelling them as continuous functions. After a brief review of several FDA methods, some useful practical tools such as Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) or functional clustering algorithms are presented and compared on simulated data. Finally, the problem of the detection of promising young swimmers is addressed through a curve clustering procedure on a real data set of performance progression curves. This study reveals that the fastest improvement of young swimmers generally appears before 16 years old. Moreover, several patterns of improvement are identified and the functional clustering procedure provides a useful detection tool.

Faster, higher, stronger, older: Relative age effects are most influential during the youngest age grade of track and field athletics in the United Kingdom

The relative age effect (RAE) is a common phenomenon in youth sport, whereby children born early in the selection year are more likely to experience success and to sustain participation. There is a lack of research investigating variables which influence RAEs within track and field athletics. Such information is vital to guide policies in relation to competition structure, youth development squads and coach education. A database of competition results was analysed to determine the extent to which RAEs were present in track and field athletics in the United Kingdom. Subsequent analyses examined whether age, sex, event and skill level influenced the RAE. Examination of 77,571 records revealed that RAEs were widespread, but most pronounced during Under 13 (U13) competitions; that is, during athletes' first exposure to formal track and field competition. Sex, event and skill level further influenced the existence and magnitude of RAEs at different age grades. Relative age is a key influencing factor within track and field athletics, especially at the youngest age category. Consequently, national governing bodies need to consider what administrative and stakeholder initiatives are necessary to minimise the effects of RAEs on young athletes' early experiences of competition.