Career performance trajectories of Olympic swimmers: Benchmarks for talent development

Career factors related to winning Olympic medals in swimming

To investigate associations between a swimmer's career progression and winning a medal at the Olympic Games (OG) or World Championships (WC). A total of 4631 swimming performances of 1535 top swimmers (653 women, 882 men) from 105 nationalities since1973 were extracted from FINA rankings. A panel of 12 predictor variables including nationality, gender, competition, age, number and timing of competitions, pattern of progressions and regressions in performance, and medal outcomes was established. Linear logistic regression was used to study the association between winning a medal and predictor variables. Logistic regression coefficients were obtained by training on 80% of the database, and prediction accuracy evaluated on the remaining 20%. Using the training set, a selection of 9 most relevant features for prediction of winning a medal (target variable) was obtained through exhaustive feature selection and cross-validation: nationality, competition, number of competitions, number of annual career progressions (nb_prog), maximum annual career progression (max-progr), number of annual career regressions (nb_reg), age at maximum annual progression, P6 (the level of performance six months before the World Championships or Olympic Games), and P2 (the level of performance two months before the World Championships or Olympic Games). A logistic regression model was built and retrained on the entire training set achieved an area under the ROC curve of ~90% on the test set. The odds of winning a medal increased by 1.64 (95% CI, 1.39-1.91) and 1.44 (1.22-1.72) for each unit of increase in max-progr and n-prog, respectively. Odds of winning a medal decreased by 0.60 (0.49-0.72) for a unit increase in n-reg. In contrast, the odds increased by 1.70 (1.39-2.07) and 4.35 (3.48-5.42) for improvements in the 6 and 2 months before competition (P<0.001, for all variables). The likelihood of a swimmer winning an international medal is improved by ~40-90% with progressions from season-to-season, and reducing the number of regressions in performance. The chances of success are also improved 2- to 4-fold by substantial improvements in performance in the months before competition.

Early excellence and future performance advantage

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to examine the impact of athletes achieving excellence at different ages (excellent age) on their subsequent performance development. The aim was to deepen understanding of the interplay among talent, training, and athletes' performance development. Additionally, the study aimed to provide insights for athletics coaches to better identify talent and devise more effective personalized long-term training plans.

DESIGN

This was a cross-sectional study.

METHOD

A hierarchical linear model was employed to analyze the correlation between excellent age and subsequent performance development in a cohort of 775 elite track and field athletes. This analysis was expanded upon by the application of a general linear regression model, which was used to explore the relationship between excellent age and peak age, peak performance, as well as the growth in performance during adulthood.

RESULTS

As athletes reached excellence at later ages, their peak performance exhibited a U-shaped pattern(p <0.001), initially decreasing and then rising. Simultaneously, their peak age became increasingly advanced(p <0.001), with a progressively larger performance improvement during adulthood(p <0.001). In various disciplines, excellent age is negatively correlated with peak performance for speed athletes(p = 0.025), exhibiting a U-shaped pattern for endurance athletes(p = 0.024), and showing no significant correlation for fast-power athletes(p = 0.916).

CONCLUSIONS

Athletes who achieve excellence either early or later often show more remarkable future developments. However, there are significant distinctions in the age at which these athletes reach their peak performance and the pace of improvement leading up to it. Those who excel early may possess greater innate athletic talent, whereas those who excel later may exhibit superior training adaptability. Consequently, an athlete's early performance can predict his/her future performance trajectory, offering support for individualized long-term training plans. In summary, the age at which athletes achieve excellence may bring different advantages to their future athletic performance and development. This implies that we should harness these differences to uncover each athlete's maximum potential.

2024: anticipating record-breaking performances in front crawl swimming through mathematical analysis

Introduction: This study presented a novel approach to predict future front crawl swimming world records (WRs) by employing a methodology that integrated performance data from both running and front crawl swimming. Methods: By extracting the top one running and swimming performances from 1995 to 2023 and applying a model that correlates physiological characteristics such as maximum aerobic power, anaerobic capacity, the decrement in maximum power with prolonged effort, and performance speed and duration, it was possible to project the potential record-breaking performances in 2024 across various swimming distances for both male and female athletes. Furthermore, this approach was expected to be less susceptible to the influence of the full-body swimsuit era, which may have disrupted the typical trajectory of swimming performance progression. Results: The average relative error between the top one and estimated speeds in front crawl swimming (50-1,500 m, from 1995 to 2023, and for male and female) was 0.56% ± 0.17%. For male, WR in longer distances have been predicted with new WR in the 400 and 800 m. A more ambitious prediction was noted among female, with twice as many WR as among male illustrated by new WR in the 50, 200, 400 and 800 m. Discussion: This study illustrated that the utilization of a prediction model based on physiological parameters yielded plausible time estimates. Additionally, the research accentuated the ongoing trajectory of surpassing existing WR into 2024, illustrating the competitive zeal fueled by an emerging framework of exceptional swimmers.

Peak Performance: Characteristics and Key Factors in the Development of the World Top-8 Swimmers Based on Longitudinal Data

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the peak performance characteristics of the world top-8 swimmers and the key factors involved in the journey toward achieving better peak performance.

METHODS

The results of the world top-8 swimmers from 2001 to 2022 were collected from the World Aquatics performance database. Progression to peak performance was tracked with individual quadratic trajectories (1191 cases). Utilizing k-means clustering to group competitive feature variables, this study investigated key developmental factors through a binary logistic regression model, using the odds ratio (OR) to represent whether a factor was favorable (OR > 1) or unfavorable (OR < 1).

RESULTS

Significant differences (P < .001) in the peak age between men (23.54/3.80) and women (22.31/4.60) were noticed, while no significant differences (P > .05) in the peak-performance window for both sexes appeared. Peak performance occurred at later ages for the sprint for both sexes, and women had a longer duration in peak-performance window for sprint (P < .05). Peak-performance occurred at later ages for the breaststroke and butterfly for both sexes (P < .05). Binary logistic regression revealed that high first-participation performance (OR = 1.502), high major-competition performance (OR = 4.165), early first-major-competition age (OR = 1.441), participation frequency above 4 times/year in both phase 2 (4.3-8.0 times/y, OR = 3.940; 8.1-20.0 times/y, OR = 5.122) and phase 3 (4.1-7.5 times/y: OR = 5.548; 7.7-15.0 times/y: OR = 7.526), and a career length of 10 years or more (10-15 y, OR = 2.102; 16-31 y, OR = 3.480) were favorable factors for achieving better peak performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Peak performance characteristics varied across sex, swimming stroke, and race distance in the world top-8 swimmers. Meanwhile, the research indicated that certain specific developmental factors were key conditions for the world top-8 swimmers to achieve better peak performance in the future.

Variation vs. specialization: the dose-time-effect of technical and physiological variety in the development of elite swimmers

OBJECTIVE

It is heavily discussed whether larger variety or specialization benefit elite performance at peak age. Therefore, this study aimed to determine technical (number of different swimming strokes) and physiological (number of different race distances) variety required to become an international-class swimmer (> 750 swimming points) based on 1'522'803 race results.

RESULTS

Correlation analyses showed lower technical variety in higher ranked swimmers (P < 0.001), yet with small effects (0.11-0.30). However, Poisson distribution revealed dose-time-effects and specified number of swimming strokes required during each age group. Specifically, freestyle swimmers showed highest chances when starting to compete in three to four swimming strokes but reduced their variety to three swimming strokes at the ages of 12/13yrs with another transition to two swimming strokes at the ages of 19/21yrs (female/male swimmers, respectively). Although both sexes showed similar specialization pattern throughout their career, earlier specialization was generally evident in female compared to male swimmers. At peak performance age, freestyle was most frequently combined with butterfly. Swimmers who either kept competing in all five swimming strokes or focused on only one at the beginning of their careers showed lowest probability of becoming an international-class swimmer. Physiological variety increased during junior age but declined again to three race distances towards elite age.

Predicting future stars: Probability and performance corridors for elite swimmers

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the new age groups of the World Junior Championships in swimming from a scientific perspective, establish benchmarks and performance corridors that predict success at peak performance age and compare performance corridors between men and women and short-, middle-, and long-distance freestyle races.

DESIGN

Longitudinal big data analysis.

METHODS

In total, 347,186 annual best times of male (n = 3360, 561 ± 177 Swimming Points) and female freestyle swimmers (n = 2570, 553 ± 183 Swimming Points) were collected across all race distances at peak performance age and retrospectively analyzed throughout adolescence. Cumulative Poisson distribution was used to calculate probabilities of becoming world-class finalist, international-class, or national-class swimmer for each age group. Performance corridors were expressed relative to the World Record and compared between performance levels, sex, race distances, and age groups with a 2-way analysis of variance.

RESULTS

Females are required to swim faster relative to the World Record at a younger age and show earlier performance plateaus than males at national and international levels. Additionally, world-class long-distance finalists show higher Swimming Points earlier in their career compared to short-distance swimmers. This effect is more distinctive in females than males.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the sex-specific performance corridors and developments, the newly aligned age groups for the World Junior Championships are questionable regarding long-term athlete development. Based on race times from 131 nations, the present benchmarks provide valid international normative values to predict success chances at peak performance age and guide young swimmers along their talent pathway.

The role of the biomechanics analyst in swimming training and competition analysis

Swimming analysts aid coaches and athletes in the decision-making by providing evidence-based recommendations. The aim of this narrative review was to report the best practices of swimming analysts that have been supporting high-performance athletes. It also aims to share how swimming analysts can translate applied research into practice. The role of the swimming analyst, as part of a holistic team supporting high-performance athletes, has been expanding and is needed to be distinguished from the job scope of a swimming researcher. As testing can be time-consuming, analysts must decide what to test and when to conduct the evaluation sessions. Swimming analysts engage in the modelling and forecast of the performance, that in short- and mid-term can help set races target-times, and in the long-term provide insights on talent and career development. Races can be analysed by manual, semi-automatic or fully automatic video analysis with single or multi-cameras set-ups. The qualitative and quantitative analyses of the swim strokes, start, turns, and finish are also part of the analyst job scope and associated with race performance goals. Land-based training is another task that can be assigned to analysts and aims to enhance the performance, prevent musculoskeletal injuries and monitor its risk factors.

Next-Generation Models for Predicting Winning Times in Elite Swimming Events: Updated Predictions for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games

PURPOSE

To evaluate statistical models developed for predicting medal-winning performances for international swimming events and generate updated performance predictions for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

METHODS

The performance of 2 statistical models developed for predicting international swimming performances was evaluated. The first model employed linear regression and forecasting to examine performance trends among medal winners, finalists, and semifinalists over an 8-year period. A machine-learning algorithm was used to generate time predictions for each individual event for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The second model was a Bayesian framework and comprised an autoregressive term (the previous winning time), moving average (past 3 events), and covariates for stroke, gender, distance, and type of event (World Championships vs Olympic Games). To examine the accuracy of the predictions from both models, the mean absolute error was determined between the predicted times for the Budapest 2022 World Championships and the actual results from said championships.

RESULTS

The mean absolute error for prediction of swimming performances was 0.80% for the linear-regression machine-learning model and 0.85% for the Bayesian model. The predicted times and actual times from the Budapest 2022 World Championships were highly correlated (r = .99 for both approaches).

CONCLUSIONS

These models, and associated predictions for swimming events at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, provide an evidence-based performance framework for coaches, sport-science support staff, and athletes to develop and evaluate training plans, strategies, and tactics, as well as informing resource allocation to athletes, based on their potential for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Long-Term Rowing Performance Development in Male Olympic and World Championship Medal Winners Compared With Nonmedalists

ABSTRACT

Mäestu, J, Lelle, R, Mäestu, E, Pind, R, Vahtra, E, Purge, P, and Mikulic, P. Long-term rowing performance development in male Olympic and World Championship medal winners compared with nonmedalists. J Strength Cond Res 37(9): e521-e526, 2023-The purpose of this study was, first, to investigate individual longitudinal 2,000 m rowing ergometer performance (2,000 erg) development of world class male rowers from the beginning of their career until reaching the elite level and to compare ELITE performance development with those who did not reach podium places and, second, to provide 2,000 erg milestones for talent prediction in rowing. Individual annual 2,000 erg performances of 54 male rowers were analyzed from age 15 and throughout their career. Olympic or World Championships medal winners (ELITE; n = 11) were compared with those who did not reach international podium places. Two thousand erg increased ( p ≤ 0.05) until the age of 24 in ELITE, while plateaued earlier for less successful rowers. No differences in the rate of performance improvement were found between ELITE and lower performers ( p > 0.05). At the age of 20, performance between ELITE and international level nonmedal winners reached significant difference (480.7 ± 20.9 W vs. 435.3 ± 33.9 W, respectively) and remained different onwards ( p ≤ 0.05). However, the average of the 10 best seasons cross-sectional performances of less successful rowers were significantly higher until age 18, compared with ELITE. ELITE rowers were able to improve their 2,000 erg performance to higher age; therefore, it is difficult to predict elite performers in junior rowers. Cross-sectional performances of less successful rowers may indicate temporary high-level performers, who might not be able to advance the elite level.

Understanding the role of coaches in supporting the mental health of elite athletes

OBJECTIVES

Elite sport coaches often rely on their discretion when assisting athletes struggling with mental health, with clear guidelines yet to be broadly adopted. This study aimed to explore how coaches perceive their role in athlete mental health and their role clarity.

DESIGN

This study employed a descriptive qualitative approach with semi-structured interviews.

METHODS

17 Australian elite level swimming coaches were interviewed, focusing on their perceived experiences with athlete mental health and any discrepancies between what their role is currently and what they perceive it should be. Thematic analysis was used to analyse results.

RESULTS

Analysis revealed that coaches perceive their role to include open communication, actively observing their athletes' mood, and acknowledging their potential mental health knowledge deficits. They also indicated a lack of clarity for when to refer an athlete on to a medical professional. Athletes were perceived as responsible for maintaining self-awareness and help-seeking, whilst the organisational role included providing education and funding. Barriers for supporting athlete mental health included a lack of resources and poor mental health literacy. Coaches suggested a variety of recommendations to ameliorate these barriers including education and redesigning systems of support.

CONCLUSIONS

Australian swimming coaches would greatly benefit from formal guidelines on how to identify, manage, and support athlete mental health. These guidelines should be established with input from coaches and key staff, in addition to clinical professionals and utilising evidence-based measures, including consideration of boundaries around coaches as non-mental health professionals.

Peak Age and Performance Trajectories in Para Powerlifters

OBJECTIVE

This study established the age-related performance trajectories in Para powerlifters, thereby presenting valuable information for athlete development.

DESIGN

Data on athlete date of birth, body mass, and weight lifted in competition were analyzed for 2079 athletes between 1994 and 2019.

RESULTS

Age-related performance trajectories showed that men and women lift their heaviest weights in competition at 36 and 41 yrs of age, respectively. This correspond to the mean age of competitors in the heaviest bodyweight categories at elite competitions (men 36 yrs, women 43 yrs), who were older than competitors in lighter bodyweight categories. It is possible that para powerlifters "move up" bodyweight categories as they get older and before lifting their heaviest weights in competition. High-performing athletes lifted their heaviest weight in competition 2.6 yrs earlier than lower performing peers, and the best performances in most bodyweight categories were achieved by athletes between 31 and 35 yrs of age.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that para powerlifters should reach their peak performance in their early to mid-30s and before age-related changes to neural and hormonal processes impact muscular strength. This information can help coaches and athletes evaluate their strategies for achieving success in para powerlifting.

Tensiomyography: from muscle assessment to talent identification tool

Introduction: Tensiomyography (TMG) is a non-invasive and cost-effective tool that is gaining popularity in fields such as sports science, physical therapy, and medicine. In this narrative review, we examine the different applications of TMG and its strengths and limitations, including its use as a tool for sport talent identification and development. Methods: In the course of crafting this narrative review, an exhaustive literature search was carried out. Our exploration spanned several renowned scientific databases, such as PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and ResearchGate. The materials we sourced for our review included a broad spectrum of both experimental and non-experimental articles, all focusing on TMG. The experimental articles featured varied research designs including randomized controlled trials, quasi-experiments, as well as pre-post studies. As for the non-experimental articles, they encompassed a mix of case-control, cross-sectional, and cohort studies. Importantly, all articles included in our review were written in English and had been published in peer-reviewed journals. The assortment of studies considered provided a holistic view of the existing body of knowledge on TMG, and formed the basis of our comprehensive narrative review. Results: A total of 34 studies were included in the review, organized into three sections: 1) assessing muscle contractile properties of young athletes, 2) using TMG in the talent identification and development process and 3) Future research and perspectives. According to data presented here, the most consistent TMG parameters for determining muscle contractile properties are radial muscle belly displacement, contraction time, and delay time. Biopsy findings from the vastus lateralis (VL) confirmed TMG as a valid tool for estimating the ratio of myosin heavy chain (%MHC-I). Conclusion: TMGs ability to estimate the ratio of %MHC-I has the potential to aid in the selection of athletes with the muscle characteristics best suited for a particular sport, eliminating the need for more invasive procedures. However, more research is warranted to fully understand TMG's potential and its reliability when used with young athletes. Importantly, the use of TMG technology in this process can positively impact health status, reducing the frequency and severity of injuries and the duration of recovery, and subsequently can reduce drop out rates among youth athletes. Future studies should look at twin youth athletes, as a model capable of discriminating between the influence of hereditary factors vs. environmental factors, in therms of muscle contractility and TMG's potential for instance.

Modelling performance by continents in swimming

Introduction: There is a growing interest in the scientific community about the progression and congruity in the performance of talented participants who complete representing different nations in the most important international events. The prediction of incoming performances is nowadays in demand with the objective of returning in talent investment. Talent identification programs have tried to select and develop sports talent over years. However, to our knowledge, there is a lack of research about success in swimming World Championships (WCs) performance considering continents-country and how successful outcomes are influenced by these variables. Therefore, the primary goal is to analyze the effect of early specialization comparing the performance progression model of the countries gathered by continents. Methods: Participant's data from all Junior and Senior WCs between 2006 and 2017 from International Swimming Federation (FINA). One-way ANOVA, ANCOVA and regression model were used to explain whether the variable category, age, best z-score, experience, and continent influences the performance obtained in Absolute WC. Results: Significant differences (p < 0.01) were found between the average performance obtained by the two different categories (junior: swimmers participating in junior WCs before senior WCs; senior: swimmers participating in senior WCs without previous participation in junior WCs), where swimmers from category junior showed significant better performance's times than seniors, except in America. ANCOVA results showed that generally, the greatest differences where in the earliest ages, with best performance registered in category junior in all the continents. Also, the experience was a significant variable in the general model. Conclusion: Swimmers who had participated in junior category prior absolute obtained better performance's times than those swimmers who participated directly in absolute, in the first participation in senior WC. Thus, early specialization is a key factor to obtain better results in senior WCs for all the continents, except in America.

Relative age in Brazilian swimmers and para swimmers

abstract This study aimed to analyze the relationships between swimming competitive events, functional classification and relative age and to detect if the relative age affects performance in Brazilian swimmers and para swimmers. Data were retrieved from public databases and birth dates were classified in four quartiles (Q1 = January-March; Q2 = April-June; Q3 = July-September; Q4 = October-December). Descriptive statistics, Chi-square tests and ANOVA were used. The 50 m freestyle is the competitive event with 2349 swimmers, followed by 100 m (n = 1817) and 200 m freestyle (n = 905), and 200 m butterfly with 42 swimmers. Para swimmers are mainly distributed to S14, S6 and S5 functional classes (n = 140, 87 and 45), and individual medley events were less represented at SM3, SM9 and SM11 (n = 1 swimmer). Most of swimming events (86.36%) and para swimming functional classes (51.43%) are represented by swimmers and para swimmers born in the first and second quartiles. Moderate associations between functional classification and relative age were observed (p < 0.0001, Cramer’s V = 0.277). No effects of relative age on swimmers and para swimmers’ performance were noticed (p > 0.05). The great functional class seems to be related to great para swimmers’ relative age. Quartiles distribution shows the advantage of being born in the first months of the year to be registered among the most talented Brazilian swimmers and para swimmers.

Don't Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater: Talent in Swimming Sprinting Events Might Be Hidden at Early Age

PURPOSE

This study aimed to describe the career performance progression of elite early- and later-success international swimmers competing in sprint events (ie, 50 and 100 m).

METHODS

The career performance trajectories of 6003 swimmers (50.9% females; 58,760 unique records) competing in the 4 swimming strokes were evaluated. Swimmers with early and later success were identified. The authors identified the top 50 all-time swimmers competing in junior career who did not reach the top 50 rankings in their senior career, and vice versa, and successful swimmers in both junior and senior career.

RESULTS

Early-success swimmers mainly achieved their peak performance before the age of 20 years and approximately 5-6 years before successful senior swimmers or approximately 3-4 years before successful swimmers both in junior and senior careers. The annual performance improvements of later-success swimmers were higher (about 1%-2%) until the age of 20 to 24 years, whereas early-success swimmers showed a performance stagnation at about 16 to 18 years in females and 19 to 20 years in males.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-success swimmers who achieved peak performance at a young age were unable to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood as they experienced a plateau in performance from the age of 20 years. The procedure of considering early performances solely for talent identification (and not the current rate of progression) might represent a limited approach for selecting future elite swimmers. Our results indicate that performance progression in the transition toward adult careers might be a strong indicator of performance potential.

Performance Development of European Swimmers Across the Olympic Cycle

The aims of the study were to (1) quantify the performance development of race times and key performance indicators of European swimmers across the last Olympic cycle (from 2016 to 2021) and (2) provide reference values for long-course swimming pool events for both sexes from 50 m to 1,500 m including butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, freestyle, and individual medley. Individual events from the 2016 and 2021 European swimming championships were included. Specifically, 246 men (age: 24.2 ± 3.4 years, FINA points: 890 ± 40) and 256 women races (age: 24.2 ± 4, FINA points: 879 ± 38) of the finalists were recorded and key performance indicators and split times analyzed. Performance differences in finalists of the 2016 and 2021 European championships were determined by an independent t-test and Cohen's d effect size. Reference values were retrieved from 2021 European championship finalists and are provided for all key performance indicators. Race times improved significantly (P < 0.05) or showed moderate (d = 0.5–1) to large effect sizes (d > 1) in 14 (men) and 6 (women) out of 16 events. Improvements were primarily evident in 100 m and 200 m events for males, as well as BR and sprint events for female swimmers. While start times improved in 15 (men) and 14 (women) events, turn times remained inconclusive in both sexes. Generally, breakout distances increased. Clean swimming velocities were faster in 12 (men) and 5 (women) events. In particular, for alternating swimming strokes, i.e., backstroke and freestyle, effect sizes indicated improved swimming efficiency with an inverse relationship between reduced stroke rate and increased distance per stroke. Coaches and performance analysts may use the present reference values as comparative data for race analyses and to specifically prepare swimmers for the various race sections. Data on the performance development should be used to analyze swimmers' potential and set goals for the various events and the next Olympic cycle.

Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal tracking to establish percentile data and assess performance progression in swimmers

To provide percentile curves for short-course swimming events, including 5 swimming strokes, 6 race distances, and both sexes, as well as to compare differences in race times between cross-sectional analysis and longitudinal tracking, a total of 31,645,621 race times of male and female swimmers were analyzed. Two percentile datasets were established from individual swimmers’ annual best times and a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine differences between cross-sectional analysis and longitudinal tracking. A software-based percentile calculator was provided to extract the exact percentile for a given race time. Longitudinal tracking reduced the number of annual best times that were included in the percentiles by 98.35% to 262,071 and showed faster mean race times (P < 0.05) compared to the cross-sectional analysis. This difference was found in the lower percentiles (1st to 20th) across all age categories (P < 0.05); however, in the upper percentiles (80th to 99th), longitudinal tracking showed faster race times during early and late junior age only (P < 0.05), after which race times approximated cross-sectional tracking. The percentile calculator provides quick and easy data access to facilitate practical application of percentiles in training or competition. Longitudinal tracking that accounts for drop-out may predict performance progression towards elite age, particularly for high-performance swimmers.

Postlockdown Performance in French Swimming Championships

PURPOSE

To measure the proportion of French swimmers that progressed, stagnated, or regressed during the 2020 national championship compared with previous ones.

METHOD

Individual best performances were collected at the French national championships from 2000 to 2020. Yearly proportions of swimmers who improved, stagnated, or regressed in performances were compared with their previous performances.

RESULTS

In 2020, the proportion of swimmers with performance regression has significantly increased (33% vs 17% in 2019). Women showed a higher proportion of performance regression (41%) than men (26%, P < .0001) in 2020. Only 39% of women and 53% of men experienced progression in 2020 (vs 60.8% [3.7%] and 66.7% [5.2%], respectively, in the previous years). Only the 2008 and 2009 championships showed a regression proportion that did not increase with age. The 2010 championship (the year of swimsuits ban) showed a higher proportion of regressing athletes than these previous years. Long-distance events showed higher proportion of performance regression (36.2% [0.5%]) for 400-, 800-, and 1500-m races than for short-distance ones (32.1% [3.2%]; 50-, 100-, and 200-m events). Breaststroke events showed higher regression (42.4%) than other styles (30.5% [2.1%]). Younger swimmers more often improved their performance than older ones (61.9% [8.5%] for swimmers less than 18 y of age vs 20.0% [10.8%] for those 25 y and older).

CONCLUSION

A high proportion of swimmers experienced performance regression during the 2020 French national championships. A higher impact was observed among female, long-distance, and breaststroke swimmers. Eight weeks of lockdown without training may have led to poorer swimming performances.

Competition age: does it matter for swimmers?

OBJECTIVE

To establish reference data on required competition age regarding performance levels for both sexes, all swimming strokes, and race distances and to determine the effect of competition age on swimming performance in the context of other common age metrics. In total, 36,687,573 race times of 588,938 swimmers (age 14.2 ± 6.3 years) were analyzed. FINA (Fédération Internationale de Natation) points were calculated to compare race times between swimming strokes and race distances. The sum of all years of race participation determined competition age.

RESULTS

Across all events, swimmers reach top-elite level, i.e. > 900 FINA points, after approximately 8 years of competition participation. Multiple-linear regression analysis explained up to 40% of variance in the performance level and competition age showed a stable effect on all race distances for both sexes (β = 0.19 to 0.33). Increased race distance from 50 to 1500 m, decreased effects of chronological age (β = 0.48 to - 0.13) and increased relative age effects (β = 0.02 to 0.11). Reference data from the present study should be used to establish guidelines and set realistic goals for years of competition participation required to reach certain performance levels. Future studies need to analyze effects of transitions between various swimming strokes and race distances on peak performance.

Profiling of elite male junior 50 m freestyle sprinters: Understanding the speed-time relationship

The aim of this study was to (1) analyze and compare the race performance and stability between the fastest and slowest male swimmers during the 50 m freestyle event, and (2) to understand the speed-time relationship in this race. The performances (start, clean swim, and finish) of 86 swimmers (divided into two tiers: best and poorest performances) who competed in the 50 m freestyle event in the 2019 long course LEN European Junior Championships were analyzed. The swimming speed presented a significant difference between the groups (tier #1 vs tier #2) in all sections of the race, in which the start (S0-15 m: p < 0.001, d = 1.64) and finish sections (S45-50: p < 0.001, d = 1.63) showed the greatest differences. Significant variances over the race sections were noted for both groups in all variables, in which the swimming speed was the variable with the highest variance (tier #1: p < 0.001, η2  = 0.72; tier #2: p < 0.001, η2  = 0.82). Both groups exhibited a similar normative stability, with the fastest swimmers tending to be the best in all sections. The fit analysis produced a cubic speed-time relationship. Notwithstanding, junior swimmers who raced the 50 m freestyle can be considered to have an all-out pacing. This information is of paramount importance for coaches and swimmers to understand the intra-lap race performance in this short event.

Older or Wiser? Age and Experience Trends in 20 Years of Olympic and World Swimming Championships Open Water 10-km Races

The aims of the present research were to estimate the age of peak performance (APP) and to examine the role of previous experience at the world-level open water race performances. Finishing positions and age of swimmers (639 females and 738 males) in the 10-km events of World Championship (WCH) and Olympic Games (OG) from 2000 to 2019 were obtained from the official results websites. Years of previous experience were computed using the number of previous participations in WCH or OG. APP was estimated using quadratic models of the 10th percentile top race positions and resulted in 28.94 years old for males (R² = 0.551) and 27.40 years old for females (R² = 0.613). Regression analysis revealed an improvement of 1.36 or 8.19 finishing positions for each additional year of age or experience, respectively (R² = 0.157). However, significant differences (p < 0.001) between age and experience showed that the swimmer's age became less relevant for performance as years of experience increased. These results, in terms of age, are in line with other mass-start disciplines of similar duration (≈2 h) and, in terms of experience, confirm the importance of previous participation in improving tactical decision making during open water races.

Origin of the Fastest 5 km, 10 km and 25 km Open-Water Swimmers-An Analysis from 20 Years and 9819 Swimmers

In elite pool swimmers competing at world class level, mainly athletes from the United States of America and Australia are dominating. Little is known, however, for the nationality of dominating swimmers in elite open-water long-distance swimming races such as the official FINA races over 5 km, 10 km and 25 km-held since 2000. The aim of this study was to investigate the participation and performance trends by nationality of these elite open-water swimmers. Race results from all female and male swimmers competing in 5 km, 10 km and 25 km FINA races between 2000 and 2020 were analyzed. A total of 9819 swimmers competed between 2000 and 2020 in these races. The five countries that figure most times among the top ten in 5 km, 10 km and 25 km races over the years were Italy, Germany, Russia, Brazil and the Netherlands. In 10 km races, considering the all the athletes from each country, male athletes from Germany, Italy, and France presented faster race times than the other countries. In 10 km, female athletes presented no significant difference among the countries. In 5 and 25 km races, there were no differences between countries, for male and female athletes. Moreover, comparing only the 10 best results (top 10) from each country, there were no differences between countries in 5 km, 10 km and 25 km, for male and female athletes. Men were faster than women for all three distances. In summary, male swimmers from Europe (i.e., Germany, Italy, France) are dominating the 10 km FINA races. In the 5 km and 25 km FINA races, there is no dominating nationality, but among the top five countries in the top 10 over the years, three are European countries.

Normative data and percentile curves for long-term athlete development in swimming

OBJECTIVES

To provide normative data and establish percentile curves for long-course (50 m pool length) swimming events and to compare progression of race times longitudinally for the various swimming strokes and race distances.

DESIGN

Descriptive approach with longitudinal tracking of performance data.

METHODS

A total of 2,884,783 race results were collected from which 169,194 annual best times from early junior to elite age were extracted. To account for drop-outs during adolescence, only swimmers still competing at age of peak performance (21-26 years) were included and analyzed retrospectively. Percentiles were established with z-scores around the median and the Lambda-Mu-Sigma (LMS) method applied to account for potential skewness. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measure and between-subject factor was applied to compare race times across the various events and age groups.

RESULTS

Percentile curves were established based on longitudinal tracking of race times specific to sex, swimming stroke, and race distance. Comparing performance progression, race times of freestyle sprint events showed an early plateau with no further significant improvement (p > 0.05) after late junior age (15-17 years). However, the longer the race distance, the later the race times plateaued (p < 0.05). Female swimmers generally showed an earlier performance plateau than males. Backstroke and freestyle showed an earlier performance plateau compared to the other swimming strokes (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Performance progression varied between sex, swimming strokes, and race distances. Percentile curves based on longitudinal tracking may allow an objective assessment of swimming performance, help discover individual potentials, and facilitate realistic goal setting for talent development.

Peak Age and Relative Performance Progression in International Cross-Country Skiers

PURPOSE

To quantify peak age and relative performance progression toward peak age in cross-country skiing according to event type, sex, and athlete performance level.

METHODS

International Ski Federation (FIS) points (performance expressed relative to the best athlete) of athletes born between 1981 and 1991, competing in junior world championships or finishing top 30 in world championships or Olympics, were downloaded from the FIS website. Individual performance trends were derived by fitting a quadratic curve to each athletes FIS point and age data.

RESULTS

Peak age was 26.2 (2.3) years in distance and 26.0 (1.7) years in sprint events. The sex difference in peak age in sprint events was ∼0.8 years (small, P = .001), while there was no significant sex difference in peak age in distance events (P = .668). Top performers displayed higher peak ages than other athletes in distance (mean difference, ±95% confidence limits = 1.6 y, ±0.6 y, moderate, P < .001) and sprint events (1.0, ±0.6 y, moderate, P < .001). FIS point improvement over the 5 years preceding peak age did not differ between event types (P = .325), while men improved more than women in both events (8.8, ±5.4%, small, P = .002 and 7.5, ±6.4%, small, P = .002). Performance level had a large effect on improvement in FIS points in both events (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

This study provides novel insights on peak age and relative performance progression among world-class cross-country skiers and can assist practitioners, sport institutions, and federations with goal setting and evaluating strategies for achieving success.

Being a top swimmer during the early career is not a prerequisite for success: A study on sprinter strokes

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the junior-to-senior successful transition rate in sprint swimming events in elite European performers.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of publicly available competition data collected between 2004 and 2019.

METHODS

The yearly performance of 6631 European swimmers (females = 41.8% of the sample) competing in 50 and 100 m freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly were included in the analysis. The junior-to-senior transition rate was determined as the number of elite junior athletes who maintained their elite status in adulthood. To investigate how the definition of elite may affect the calculation of the transition rate, we operationally defined elite athletes as those ranked in the all-time top 10, 25, 50, and 100 in their category. We also calculated the correlation between junior and senior performances.

RESULTS

The average transition rates ranged, depending on the age of reference, from 10 to 26% in males and from 23 to 33% in females. The transition rate for the top 100 junior swimmers was greater than that for the top 10 swimmers. In general, swimmers who swam 50 m showed a slightly lower transition rate compared with those that swam 100 m. Depending on the age of reference, low-to-moderate correlations were observed between junior and senior peak performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Most elite junior athletes did not maintain the elite level in adulthood. Except for athletes in the last year of the junior category (18 years for males and 17 years for females), junior performances were poorly correlated with senior performances.

"Maybe I'm just not good enough?": British swimmers' experiences of attempting to qualify for the Olympic Games

The purpose of this study was to explore the transitional experiences of British swimmers as they attempted to qualify for the Olympic Games and gain a place in the British Swimming World Class Performance Programme. An interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA) approach was adopted (Smith JA. Psychol Health 1996;11:261-271). Six swimmers (aged 20-25 years), one of each of their parents, and four coaches completed interviews leading up to and following Olympic trials over an eight-month period. Audio recordings were transcribed verbatim and analyzed following the guidelines set out by Smith and Osborne (Smith JA, Osborn M. Qualitative psychology: A practical guide to research methods. London: Sage; 2003:51-80). Results indicated that athletes' transition experiences were characterized by a range of demands, which were categorized into five higher-order themes (a) Questioning "Am I good enough?"; (b) Managing and fulfilling expectations; (c) Operating within an environment that is working against them; (d) Lacking support and understanding of self and demands; and (e) Maintaining balance versus being an international swimmer. Overall, the results indicate that this attempted transition is complex, challenging, and unique and largely influenced by self-confidence. Addressing the individual factors impacting on athletes' self-confidence appears critical to enhancing swimmers' transitional experiences at the highest level.

World-Class Sprinters’ Careers: Early Success Does Not Guarantee Success at Adult Age

Purpose: To quantify how many of the top 50 under-18 (U18) sprinters in the world managed to become top 50 ranked as adult competitors. The authors also described the career trajectory of athletes ranked in the top 50 during either U18 or senior category. Methods: A total of 4924 male and female athletes competing in sprint races and ranked in the International Association of Athletics Federations (now World Athletics) lists in any of the seasons between the 2000 and 2018 were included in the study. The athletes ranked in the top 50 positions of all-time lists during U18, senior, or both categories were analyzed. Results: Only 17% of the male and 21% of the female top 50 ranked U18 managed to become top 50 ranked senior athletes. The top 50 ranked senior athletes consistently produced yearly larger improvements during late adolescence and early adulthood compared with those who ranked in the top 50 at U18. Furthermore, top 50 ranked senior athletes reached their peak performance later compared with the top 50 ranked only in U18. Conclusions: This study confirms that early success in track and field is not a good predictor of success at senior level in sprinting events. The yearly performance improvements and their tracking provide the most suitable approach to identify athletes more likely to succeed as elite performers in adulthood. The authors hope that the results of this study can provide useful comparative data and reference criteria for talent-identification and -development programs.

Swimming World Championships: Association between Success at the Junior and Senior Level for British Swimmers

The present study examines the association between the success at junior and senior level for British swimmers in World Championships (WCs). It also explores the relationships between swimming performance and the swimmers’ gender, swim stroke, distance, status (finalist, semifinalist and heats) and swimming category. Data were collected for swimmers participating in junior and/or senior World Championships (29,000 entries: 5585 swimmers) from 2006–2017. The final filtered database included only swimmers from the United Kingdom (836 entries: 141 swimmers). A descriptive analysis was made to characterize the swimmers who reached elite status in the senior category. A lineal regression model was run by gender to predict the influence of category, swim stroke, and distance in the results reached in the senior category. The results showed that the ratio of conversion from junior to senior was quite low. Females who participated in both junior and senior WCs were likely to reach top positions in the senior category. Overall, few British swimmers participated in a junior category before the senior level, but female swimmers participating in both junior and senior WCs were likely to reach top positions in the senior category.

Interim Performance Progression (IPP) During Consecutive Season Best Performances of Talented Swimmers

Objective: The main goal of the present study was to investigate the interim performance progression (IPP) of talented swimmers. Part of this group ultimately made it to the top (referred to as elite swimmers) whereas others did not make it to the top (referred to as high-competitive swimmers). Rather than investigating performance progression based solely on season best performances, we included the first swim performance of the season in the metrics of IPP. Knowledge about the IPP of talented swimmers from and toward their season best performances relative to the first swim performance of the season will enhance our understanding of changes in season best performances during the talent trajectory and provide valuable insights for talent development and selection processes in competitive swimming.

Methods: Fifteen thousand nine hundred and forty four swim performances (first swim performances of the season and season best performances) between 1993 and 2019 of 3,199 talented swimmers (of whom 556 reached elite level and 2,643 reached high-competitive level) were collected from Swimrankings and related to the prevailing world record of the corresponding sex. The pattern of IPP was represented by two phases: phase A and phase B. Phase A reflected the performance progression between the previous season best performance and the first swim performance of the current season (PP_A) and phase B reflected the performance progression between the first swim performance of the current season and the season best performance of the current season (PP_B). Depending on the normality check, we used independent sample t-tests or Mann Whitney tests to establish significant differences in PP_A and PP_B between elite and high competitive swimmers per age category per sex (p < 0.05).

Results: Without denying individual differences, male elite swimmers improved more during phase B from age 15 till 24 compared to high-competitive swimmers (20.5% vs. 13.1%, respectively, p < 0.05). Female elite swimmers improved more during phase B from age 13 till 23 compared to high-competitive swimmers (21.1% vs. 14.6%, respectively, p < 0.05). Except for age 14 in males, there were no significant differences between performance groups in PP_A.

Conclusion: Talented swimmers who ultimately made it to the top (elite swimmers) are characterized with different patterns of IPP compared to talented swimmers who did not make it to the top (high-competitive swimmers). After puberty, elite and high-competitive swimmers performed in general ~1% slower at the start of their season compared to their previous season best performance (PP_A). However, elite swimmers improved more in the period between their first swim performance of the season and their season best performance (PP_B) from age 13 (females) and age 15 (males) onwards.

Improvement and Variability of Adolescent Backstroke Swimming Performance by Age

To predict future performance, coaches rely on their previous experiences with a relatively small number of adolescent competitive swimmers to estimate the rate of improvement. The purpose of this study is to quantify the annual change in competition performance as backstroke swimmers mature. Data from 2006 to 2017 provided 9,956 swimming years of accumulated data which was used to estimate the rate of improvement of male and female backstroke swimmers as they aged from 8 to 18 years. Swimming performance improved rapidly between 8 and 13 years, and improvements diminished as swimmers approached their performance potential around 18 years old. These results provide accurate age-based progression data for adolescent backstroke swimmers, providing baseline performance prediction for coaches to predict future performance as swimmers mature, and providing a measure against which potential improvements from novel coaching and training methods can be objectively evaluated.

Competition-Based Success Factors During the Talent Pathway of Elite Male Swimmers

Marginal differences in race results between top swimmers have evoked the interest in competition-based success factors of long-term athlete development. To identify novel factors for the multi-dimensional model of talent development, the aim of the study was to investigate annual variation in competition performance (ACV), number of races per year, and age. Therefore, 45,398 race results of all male participants (n = 353) competing in individual events, i.e., butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, freestyle, and individual medley, at the 2018 European Long-Course Swimming Championships (2018EC) were analyzed retrospectively for all 10 years prior to the championships with Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. Higher ranked swimmers at the 2018EC showed significant medium correlations with a greater number of races per year and small but significant correlations with higher ACV in 10 and nine consecutive years, respectively, prior to the championships. Additionally, better swimmers were older than their lower ranked peers (r = −0.21, p < 0.001). Regression model explained a significant proportion of 2018EC ranking for 50 m (47%), 100 m (45%), 200 m (31%), and 400 m races (29%) but not for 800 and 1,500 m races with number of races having the largest effect followed by age and ACV. In conclusion, higher performance variation with results off the personal best in some races did not impair success at the season's main event and young competitors at international championships may benefit from success chances that increase with age. The higher number of races swum per year throughout the career of higher ranked swimmers may have provided learning opportunities and specific adaptations. Future studies should quantify these success factors in a multi-dimensional talent development model.

Modelling the age-related trajectory of performance in Para swimmers with physical, vision and intellectual impairment

This study is the first to provide information on the age-related trajectories of performance in Para swimmers with physical, vision and intellectual impairment. Race times from long-course swim meets between 2009 and 2019 were obtained for Para swimmers with an eligible impairment. A subset of 10 661 times from 411 Para swimmers were included in linear mixed effects modelling to establish the relationship between age and performance expressed relative to personal best time and world record time. The main findings were: (a) age has the most noticeable influence on performance between the ages of 12-20 years before performances stabilize and peak in the early to late twenties, (b) women have faster times relative to personal best and world record time than men during early adolescence and their performances stabilize, peak and decline at younger ages, and (c) Para swimmers from different sport classes show varying age-related trajectories in performance after maturation and when training-related factors are more likely to explain competitive swim performance. The results of this study can guide talent identification and development of Para swimmers at various stages of their career and help to inform decision-making on the allocation of sport class and sport class status in Para swimming classification.

Variation in competition performance, number of races, and age: Long-term athlete development in elite female swimmers

While talent development and the contributing factors to success are hardly discussed among the experts in the field, the aim of the study was to investigate annual variation in competition performance (AVCP), number of races per year, and age, as potential success factors for international swimming competitions. Data from 40’277 long-course races, performed by all individual female starters (n = 253) at the 2018 European Swimming Championships (2018EC) for all 10 years prior to these championships, were analyzed. Relationships between 2018EC ranking and potential success factors, i.e., AVCP, number of races per year, and age, were determined using Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. While AVCP was not related to ranking, higher ranked swimmers at the 2018EC swam more races during each of the ten years prior to the championships (P < 0.001). Additionally, older athletes were more successful (r = -0.42, P < 0.001). The regression model explained highly significant proportions (P < 0.001) and 43%, 34%, 35%, 49% of total variance in the 2018EC ranking for 50m, 100m, 200m, and 400m races, respectively. As number of races per year (β = -0.29 –-0.40) had a significant effect on ranking of 50-400m races, and age (β = -0.40 –-0.61) showed a significant effect on ranking over all race distances, number of races per year and age may serve as success factors for international swimming competitions. The larger number of races swum by higher ranked female swimmers may have aided long-term athlete development regarding technical, physiological, and mental skill acquisitions. As older athletes were more successful, female swimmers under the age of peak performance, who did not reach semi-finals or finals, may increase their chances of success in following championships with increased experience.

The relative age effect in German 11- to 18-year-old male and female swimmers

Relatively older athletes have a greater probability of being selected and subsequently exposed to a higher level of coaching, training and other talent-promoting factors. Grouping by chronological age is, therefore, considered to be one of the weaknesses in talent identification. A large number of studies have confirmed the prevalence of the relative age effect (RAE) across various sports, including swimming. This investigation aims to quantify the prevalence, magnitude and transient pattern of the RAE according to sex and events across German swimmers. The RAE was examined top-100 ranked swimmers (2004–2013) according to birth month, of three cohorts (born 1993–1995; n = 3630) for the age groups 11–18. The Χ2 tests and Cramer’s V estimated effect sizes; odd’s ratios and confidence intervals calculated relative discrepancies between the quartiles. The RAE is significantly present over all events for female swimmers until 13–15 and for males until 16–18 years of age. Effect sizes were moderate until 12/13 years of age for females and 14/15 years of age for males. No inverted effects were visible. Compared to previous reports on Australian as well as Portuguese cohorts, the RAE was prevalent over a longer time period. Therefore, the impact of negative outcomes from RAE appears to be greater among German age group swimmers.

Transitions in the Careers of Competitive Swimmers: To Continue or Finish with Elite Sport?

An athletic career is a succession of stages and transitions (normative and non-normative), which may have decisive effects on either maintaining a satisfactory and/or successful course or deciding about premature career termination. The main purpose of this study was to identify differences between swimmers (M_age = 21.32, SD = 2.62) who after undergoing the transition from junior to senior level either: (a) continued their career hoping to improve their performance regardless of low success at the elite level—Group I; or (b) decided on premature athletic career termination—Group II. The criteria for inclusion included having undergone the transition from junior to senior level and having competed at elite level for at least a year (M = 4.14 years, SD = 1.74). The participants were administered a demographic survey and a structured interview. The results revealed differences in developmental stages. The exploration phase was longer (M_{Group I} = 5.8 yrs, SD = 2.04, M_{Group II} = 4.6 yrs, SD = 2.4; Z = −1.902, p = 0.057); the commitment phase was shorter (M_{Group I} = 3.6 yrs, SD = 1.3; M_{Group II} = 4.6 yrs, SD = 1.7; Z = −1.735, p = 0.083); the number of hours of structured practice were (M_{Group I} = 5975, SD = 2474; M_{Group II} = 7623, SD = 2660, Z = −1.928, p = 0.054); the number of perceived costs were (Group I = 22, Group II = 34; Z = −2.209, p = 0.0027); and the most often pointed benefits of a sporting career were (Group I—94% health & physical fitness; Group II—88% personal growth & life skills). Furthermore, essential inhibitors and facilitators of athletes’ development were identified. The findings of the study have practical applications for athletes, coaches, parents and sport psychology professionals. For instance, appropriate social support can help to prevent elite athletes’ premature career termination from professional sport during and after their normative transition from junior to senior level.

Generational differences in the ranking pathways of top 100 ranked golfers

The Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) offers a rich data source that may be used by golf National Sporting Organisations (NSOs) to inform the allocation of human and financial capital. Golf has undergone many changes over the past few decades, thus before rankings data can be used for benchmarking purposes it is crucial to appraise its temporal stability. This study aimed to determine whether the ranking pathways of top 100 golfers have changed over time. Data were collected on 470 golfers who entered the top 100 between January 1990 and December 2018. Golfers were assigned to birth-year defined cohorts: Cohort 1 (1989-1999) (n = 79); Cohort 2 (1979-1988) (n = 153); Cohort 3 (1969-1978) (n = 174); and Cohort 4 (1959-1986) (n = 64). Descriptive statistics were reported for ranking milestones and one-way ANOVAs used to investigate temporal trends. Golfers from younger age cohorts reached milestones at significantly earlier ages and in less time than their older peers. For instance, the time taken to reach the OWGR top 100 for Cohort 1, 2, 3, and 4 was 3.55, 5.99, 7.72, and 10.23 years, respectively. Together, these findings highlight the temporal instability of golf rankings data and provide scientific data to inform athlete selection and investment decisions.

Pacing Profiles and Competitive Performance of Elite Female 400-m Freestyle Swimmers

Lipinska, P, and Hopkins, WG. Pacing profiles and competitive performance of elite female 400-m freestyle swimmers. J Strength Cond Res 34(1): 218-224, 2020-Pacing can impact competitive endurance performance. The objective of this study was to determine relationships between pacing parameters and competitive performance of elite female 400-m freestyle swimmers. Publicly available websites provided 50-m split and final times for 381 swims of 20 elite female swimmers in over 150 national and international competitions between 2004 and 2016. Most pacing profiles displayed negative quadratic curvature, with the fifth of the 8 laps being the median slowest. The mean times for the first and last laps were faster than predicted by the quadratic by 5.6 and 1.9%, respectively, and lap-to-lap variability was 0.65%. Scatter plots of each swimmer's final time often showed no obvious relationships with their pacing parameters, suggesting that swimmers compensated for changes in one parameter with changes in another. However, some plots showed a U shape or linear trend that allowed tentative identification of optimum values of the pacing parameters. In these plots, it was apparent that about half the swimmers might make small to moderate improvements (up to ∼1%) by changing the slope or curvature of their pacing profile or by changing time in the first or last laps. This approach for characterizing pacing profiles to identify possible improvements might be appropriate to assess pacing in other sports with multiple laps, frequent competitions, and relatively constant environmental conditions.

Analysis of World Championship Swimmers Using a Performance Progression Model

Purpose

The primary aim was to create a performance progression model of elite competitors in the World Swimming Championships from 2006 to 2017 for all strokes and distances. Secondly, to identify the influence of annual ratios of progression, ages of peak performance and junior status on success in senior competitions.

Methods

Data regarding the participants of senior and junior World Championships (WCs) between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final filtered database, after removing those swimmers who just participated in junior WCs, included 4076. Statistical models were used to examine differences between the top senior swimmers (the top 30% best performances; T30) and lower level swimmers (the bottom 70% performances; L70) for minimum age (MA), progress (P) and best junior time (BJ). In order to identify the variables that contribute to reach the T30 group, a logistic regression (LR), stepwise LR and decision tree were applied. To analyze the effect of each variable separately, a simple LR (gross odds ratio) was performed. Ratio probabilities (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each variable.

Results

Swimmer’s BJ and P were higher in the T30 group (p < 0.000). The decision tree showed the greatest explanatory capacity for BJ, followed by P. The MA had a very low explanatory capacity and was not significant in the LR.

Conclusion

Swimmers with exceptional junior performance times, or have a high rate of progress are more likely to be successful at the senior WCs.

Multigenerational performance development of male and female top-elite swimmers-A global study of the 100 m freestyle event

BACKGROUND

The present study investigated longitudinally the performance development of a multigenerational sample of competitive swimmers. The aim of the study was to provide unique insight into the junior toward senior performance development of those few who reached top-elite level. Season Best Times (SBT) of 100 m freestyle performance of international swimmers, (1.305 males, aged 12-26 and 1.841 females, aged 12-24) competing in at least five seasons between 1993 and 2018, were corrected for the prevailing world record (WR). Swim performance was defined as a relative measure: relative Season Best Time=(SBT/WR) × 100. Based on rSBT, four performance groups were defined: top-elite, elite, sub-elite, and high-competitive.

RESULTS

Univariate analyses of variance showed that male top-elite swimmers outperformed high-competitive swimmers from the age of 12, sub-elite swimmers from the age of 14 and elite swimmers from the age of 18 while female top-elite swimmers outperformed high-competitive and sub-elite swimmers from the age of 12 and elite swimmers from the age of 14 (P < .05). Frequency analysis showed that male top-elite swimmers for the first time achieved top-elite level between the 17 and 24 years old (mean age of 21) while female top-elite swimmers started to perform at top-elite level between the 14 and 24 years old (mean age of 18).

CONCLUSION

Male and female top-elite swimmers are characterized by a high-performance level from 12 years on and progressively outperform swimmers from similar age. However, this goes together with a large variety in the individual pathways toward top-elite level within and between sexes.

Comparing the Pathway to Success in European Countries Competing in the Swimming World Championships

Purpose: This study aimed to compare the performance progression model of the European countries that participated in the World Championships (WCs) from 2006 to 2017. Data from all championships were compared between the top five (1-5) and the next five (6-10) countries on the medal table. The study also identifies the ages of peak performance in senior swimmers, the annual ratio of progression and the effect of junior performance on senior success by these groups of countries. We hypothesized that: (1) countries with swimmers achieving better performances at the Junior WCs would also be higher in the medal ranking at the Senior WCs and (2) a higher annual performance progression in their swimmers increases the chances of countries being ranked in the top 5 at the Senior World Championships. Methods: Participant's data from all Junior and Senior WCs between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final, filtered database included 629 swimmers after removing those participating only in the Junior WCs and selecting swimmers from the top 10 countries. One-way ANOVA, F test, and decision tree methods were used to examine differences between the top (1-5) and the next best (6-10) countries on the medal table for first participation age, annual progress, and best-time in junior and senior championships. Results: There was no difference (p = 0.492 and p = 0.97) between 1-5 and 6-10 ranked countries for best senior time and annual progression, respectively. Countries ranked in the top 5 at the Senior WCs had swimmers with faster times at the Junior WCs (p > 0.001). Decision tree analysis found that best-time at the Junior WC had the greatest explanatory capacity (94%). Conclusion: European countries with swimmers who perform best at the Junior WCs are also likely to be in the top 5 countries that win medals at the Senior WCs.

Influence of early specialization in world-ranked swimmers and general patterns to success

Objectives

The primary goal was to examine the influence of early specialization on the performance of senior elite swimmers. Secondly, to provide information about the influence of swim style, distance, sex, status, country, years of high-level competition (YHLC) and age in swimmer’s performance.

Design

Data was obtained from International Federation of Swimming (FINA) regarding the participants 2006–2017 of junior and senior World Championships (WCs). The final filtered database included 4076 swimmers after removing those participating only in junior WCs.

Method

Cramer V coefficient, double and triple-entry tables were used to measure the relationship between the positions occupied in junior and senior phases. A One-Way ANOVA analysis was used to explain the variables time and rank between swimmers who participated in junior and senior WC or just in senior in all the distances and swim styles (SS). A univariate general linear model (GLM) was used to examine the association between time/rank and category (swimmers that participated previously in junior WC or not); YHLC; country; status (highest finishing position: final/semi-final/heats) and age.

Results

Significant differences (p < .001) were found in the GLM, with Rank as dependent variable, for all the variables. Showing that swimmers that participated previously in junior categories obtained greater results in all the interactions, except in 1500m freestyle. Significant differences (p < .001) were found between the variables position and YHLC, showing the variable position improvements as swimmers attended more WCs.

Conclusion

Competing in junior WC has a positive influence in achieve posteriori success in FINA WC. YHLC have a positive impact to achieve better positions.

Characteristics and Challenges of Open-Water Swimming Performance: A Review

CONTEXT

Although the popularity of open-water swimming (OWS) events has significantly increased in the last decades, specific studies regarding performance of elite or age-group athletes in these events are scarce.

PURPOSE

To analyze the existing literature on OWS.

METHODS

Relevant literature was located via computer-generated citations. During August 2016, online computer searches on PubMed and Scopus databases were conducted to locate published research.

RESULTS

The number of participants in ultraendurance swimming events has substantially increased in the last 10 y. In elite athletes there is a higher overall competitive level of women than of men. The body composition of female athletes (different percentage and distribution of fat tissue) shows several advantages (more buoyancy and less drag) in aquatic conditions that determine the small difference between males and females. The main physiological characteristics of open-water swimmers (OW swimmers) are the ability to swim at high percentage of [Formula: see text] (80-90%) for many hours. Furthermore, to sustain high velocity for many hours, endurance swimmers need a high propelling efficiency and a low energy cost.

CONCLUSION

Open-water races may be characterized by extreme environmental conditions (water temperature, tides, currents, and waves) that have an overall impact on performance, influencing tactics and pacing. Future studies are needed to study OWS in both training and competition.

The changes in classical and nonlinear parameters after a maximal bout to elicit fatigue in competitive swimming

The aim was to assess the effect of fatigue on linear and nonlinear parameters in swimming. Twenty-four fitness-oriented swimmers performed a maximal bout of 100 m at front-crawl to elicit fatigue. Before (pre-) and immediately after (post-test) the bout, participants swam an all-out 25 m to derive the speed fluctuation (dv), approximate entropy (ApEn) and fractal dimension (FD) from the speed-time series collected by a speedo-meter. Swim speed was 10.85% slower in the post-test than in the pre-test (p < .001, η² = 0.72). There was an effect of the fatigue on the dv with a moderate effect size. The dv increased shifting the 95CI band from 0.116-0.134 to 0.140-0.161. The ApEn showed non-significant variations between the pre- and post-test having the 95CI of pre- and post-test overlapped (pre: 0.659-0.700; post: 0.641-0.682). The FD showed as well a significant variation (the 95CI moved from 1.954-1.965 to 1.933-1.951). It can be concluded that in swimming there are changes in classical and nonlinear parameters under fatigue.

Swimming championship finalist positions on success in international swimming competitions

The primary goal was to determine whether the achievement of finalist positions in the Junior Championship was associated with the achievement of success in the International Swimming Federation (FINA) World Championship (WC). Secondary goals included analyzing the effect of various factors (gender, age, country, etc) on swimmers’ performances. Data were obtained from FINA information about the finalists from 2007 to 2015 WCs and finalists from 2006 to 2013 Junior-WCs (2400 entries). Final filtered database just included swimmers who participated in both junior and senior WCs (719 entries). A univariate general linear model (GLM) was used to examine the association between time; origin (swimmer who participated in Junior WC or not); maintenance years (number of years achieving finalist positions); country; and age, adjusting for year of competition. An ordinal logistic regression (OLR) model was used to identify predictors of achieving the top positions. The origin variable was not significant in either the GLM or the OLR. The only significant variables in the GLM were maintenance years (F_4,706 = 7.689; p < .05) and year of competition (F_4,706 = 23.239; p < .05). The OLR revealed a strong association (p < .001) between the position variable and maintenance years, getting better positions as you get more WCs (odds = 1.85). In conclusion, no evidence was obtained to conclude finalist position in Junior WC have influence in achieve success in FINA WC. Maintenance years in WCs have a positive impact to achieve better positions.

Performance Trends in Master Butterfly Swimmers Competing in the FINA World Championships

Performance trends in elite butterfly swimmers are well known, but less information is available regarding master butterfly swimmers. We investigated trends in participation, performance and sex differences in 9,606 female and 13,250 male butterfly race times classified into five-year master groups, from 25-29 to 90-94 years, competing in the FINA World Masters Championships between 1986 and 2014. Trends in participation were analyzed using linear regression analysis. Trends in performance changes were investigated using mixed-effects regression analyses with sex, distance and a calendar year as fixed variables. We also considered interaction effects between sex and distance. Participation increased in master swimmers older than ~30-40 years. The men-to-women ratio remained unchanged across calendar years and master groups, but was lower in 200 m compared to 50 m and 100 m. Men were faster than women from 25-29 to 85-89 years (p < 0.05), although not for 90-94 years. Sex and distance showed a significant interaction in all master groups from 25-29 to 90-94 years for 200m (p < 0.05). For 50 m and 100 m, a significant sex × distance interaction was observed from 25-29 to 75-79 years (p < 0.05), but not in the older groups. In 50 m, women reduced the sex difference in master groups 30-34 to 60-64 years (p < 0.05). In 100 m, women decreased the gap to men in master groups 35-39 to 55-59 years (p < 0.05). In 200 m, the sex difference was reduced in master groups 30-34 to 40-44 years (p < 0.05). In summary, women and men improved performance at all distances, women were not slower compared to men in the master group 90-94 years; moreover, women reduced the gap to men between ~30 and ~60 years, although not in younger or older master groups.