Measles elimination in the United States

Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models

Government responses to COVID-19 are among the most globally impactful events of the 21st century. The extent to which responses-such as school closures-were associated with changes in COVID-19 outcomes remains unsettled. Multiverse analyses offer a systematic approach to testing a large range of models. We used daily data on 16 government responses in 181 countries in 2020-2021, and 4 outcomes-cases, infections, COVID-19 deaths, and all-cause excess deaths-to construct 99,736 analytic models. Among those, 42% suggest outcomes improved following more stringent responses ("helpful"). No subanalysis (e.g. limited to cases as outcome) demonstrated a preponderance of helpful or unhelpful associations. Among the 14 associations with P values < 1 × 10-30, 5 were helpful and 9 unhelpful. In summary, we find no patterns in the overall set of models that suggests a clear relationship between COVID-19 government responses and outcomes. Strong claims about government responses' impacts on COVID-19 may lack empirical support.

Measles outbreak investigation in Berhet District, North Shewa, Ethiopia

Introduction

Measles, though usually self-limiting, can have severe consequences influenced by factors such as vaccination and nutrition, notably vitamin A deficiency and malnutrition. Despite progress, contextual changes and implementation issues have hampered efforts, resulting in increased outbreaks and cases of measles. This study seeks to pinpoint outbreak features, risk factors, and strategies for preventing and controlling measles.

Methods

A descriptive cross-sectional study and a 1:2 unmatched case-control study design were employed. All 101 suspected measles cases listed on the line-list were included in the descriptive research, with 60 measles patients and 120 controls included in the case-control investigation. Line-list data were cleaned and analyzed using a pivot table in Microsoft Excel 2016. Subsequently, the data were cleaned, entered into Epi Info 7.2, and exported to SPSS 26 for analysis.

Results

Twenty cases occurred per 10,000 individuals. Men accounted for 67.3% of cases, with ages ranging from 5 months to 45 years and mean and standard deviations of 9.6 and 7.6, respectively. Age group of 5-14 years comprised 57.4% of cases, followed by 1-4 years with 24.8%. Being unvaccinated against measles showed an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 12.06 (95% CI: 3.12-46.52). Travel history to regions with active cases had an AOR of 5.73 (95% CI: 1.78-18.38). Contact with a measles patient showed an AOR of 10.3 (95% CI: 3.48-30.5). Understanding the measles transmission mechanism had an AOR of 0.164 (95% CI: 0.049-0.55), and awareness of the disease's preventability had an AOR of 0.233 (95% CI: 0.67-0.811). All factors were independently associated with the illness.

Conclusion

This outbreak affected a broader age range with a high attack rate, mainly in the age group of 5-14-years. Over 35% of cases lacked measles vaccination, indicating low administrative vaccine coverage. Factors contributing to the outbreak include lack of measles vaccination, travel to areas with active disease, contact with cases, and insufficient knowledge of measles transmission and prevention strategies among mothers and caregivers.

Performance Characteristics of Six Immunoglobulin M Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays Used for Laboratory Confirmation of Measles

Laboratory confirmation of infection is an essential component of measles surveillance. Detection of measles-specific IgM in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is the most common method used to confirm measles infection. ELISA formats vary, as does the sensitivity and specificity of each assay. Specimens collected within 3 days of rash onset can yield a false-negative result, which can delay confirmation of measles cases. Interfering substances can yield a false-positive result, leading to unnecessary public health interventions. The IgM capture assay developed at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) was compared against five commercially available ELISA kits for the ability to detect measles virus-specific IgM in a panel of 90 well-characterized specimens. Serum samples were tested in triplicate using each commercial kit as recommended by the manufacturer. Using the CDC measles IgM capture assay as the reference test; the sensitivity and specificity for each commercial kit ranged from 50 to 83% and 86.9 to 98%, respectively. Discrepant results were observed for samples tested with all five commercial kits and ranged from 13.8 to 28.8% of the specimens tested. False-positive results occurred in 2.0 to 13.1% of sera, while negative results were observed in 16.7 to 50% of sera that were positive by the CDC measles IgM capture assay. Evaluation and interpretation of measles IgM serologic results can be complex, particularly in measles elimination settings. The performance characteristics of a measles IgM assay should be carefully considered when selecting an assay to achieve high-quality measles surveillance.

Understanding parental vaccine refusal: Implicit and explicit associations about vaccines as potential building blocks of vaccine beliefs and behavior

Objective

A movement of parents refusing vaccines for their children has contributed to increasingly large outbreaks of diseases that are preventable by vaccines. Research has identified multiple factors that relate to parents' vaccination behaviors (i.e., whether not they vaccinate their children), including their beliefs about vaccines' safety and utility and their trust in those who recommend vaccines. Here we examine the role of more fundamental psychological processes that may contribute to multiple vaccine-related beliefs and behaviors: cognitive associations.

Methods

Using a large sample of U.S. parents (pre-COVID-19), we investigated parents' associations between vaccines and helpfulness/harmfulness, as well as between the self and vaccines (vaccine identity), and their relation to parents' beliefs about vaccine safety and utility, trust in authorities' vaccine recommendations, and prior vaccination refusal for their children. To capture a more complete understanding of people's associations, we examined both explicit associations (measured via self-report) and implicit associations (measured by the Implicit Association Test).

Results

Both implicit and explicit associations correlated with beliefs, trust, and vaccination refusal. Results from structural equation models indicated that explicit vaccine-identity and vaccine-helpfulness associations and implicit vaccine helpfulness associations were indirectly related to vaccination refusal via their relation with vaccine beliefs.

Conclusions

Collectively, study findings suggest that vaccine associations—especially those related to helpfulness/harmfulness—may serve as psychological building blocks for parental vaccine beliefs and behaviors.

Vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella in children

BACKGROUND

Measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (chickenpox) are serious diseases that can lead to serious complications, disability, and death. However, public debate over the safety of the trivalent MMR vaccine and the resultant drop in vaccination coverage in several countries persists, despite its almost universal use and accepted effectiveness. This is an update of a review published in 2005 and updated in 2012.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness, safety, and long- and short-term adverse effects associated with the trivalent vaccine, containing measles, rubella, mumps strains (MMR), or concurrent administration of MMR vaccine and varicella vaccine (MMR+V), or tetravalent vaccine containing measles, rubella, mumps, and varicella strains (MMRV), given to children aged up to 15 years.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library 2019, Issue 5), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, MEDLINE (1966 to 2 May 2019), Embase (1974 to 2 May 2019), the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (2 May 2019), and ClinicalTrials.gov (2 May 2019).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), prospective and retrospective cohort studies (PCS/RCS), case-control studies (CCS), interrupted time-series (ITS) studies, case cross-over (CCO) studies, case-only ecological method (COEM) studies, self-controlled case series (SCCS) studies, person-time cohort (PTC) studies, and case-coverage design/screening methods (CCD/SM) studies, assessing any combined MMR or MMRV / MMR+V vaccine given in any dose, preparation or time schedule compared with no intervention or placebo, on healthy children up to 15 years of age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. We grouped studies for quantitative analysis according to study design, vaccine type (MMR, MMRV, MMR+V), virus strain, and study settings. Outcomes of interest were cases of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, and harms. Certainty of evidence of was rated using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 138 studies (23,480,668 participants). Fifty-one studies (10,248,159 children) assessed vaccine effectiveness and 87 studies (13,232,509 children) assessed the association between vaccines and a variety of harms. We included 74 new studies to this 2019 version of the review. Effectiveness Vaccine effectiveness in preventing measles was 95% after one dose (relative risk (RR) 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.13; 7 cohort studies; 12,039 children; moderate certainty evidence) and 96% after two doses (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.28; 5 cohort studies; 21,604 children; moderate certainty evidence). The effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts or preventing transmission to others the children were in contact with after one dose was 81% (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.89; 3 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence), after two doses 85% (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.75; 3 cohort studies; 378 children; low certainty evidence), and after three doses was 96% (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.23; 2 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness (at least one dose) in preventing measles after exposure (post-exposure prophylaxis) was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.50; 2 cohort studies; 283 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness of Jeryl Lynn containing MMR vaccine in preventing mumps was 72% after one dose (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.76; 6 cohort studies; 9915 children; moderate certainty evidence), 86% after two doses (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.35; 5 cohort studies; 7792 children; moderate certainty evidence). Effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.49; 3 cohort studies; 1036 children; moderate certainty evidence).  Vaccine effectiveness against rubella, using a vaccine with the BRD2 strain which is only used in China, is 89% (RR 0.11, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.42; 1 cohort study; 1621 children; moderate certainty evidence).  Vaccine effectiveness against varicella (any severity) after two doses in children aged 11 to 22 months is 95% in a 10 years follow-up (rate ratio (rr) 0.05, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.08; 1 RCT; 2279 children; high certainty evidence). Safety There is evidence supporting an association between aseptic meningitis and MMR vaccines containing Urabe and Leningrad-Zagreb mumps strains, but no evidence supporting this association for MMR vaccines containing Jeryl Lynn mumps strains (rr 1.30, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.56; low certainty evidence). The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR/MMR+V/MMRV vaccines (Jeryl Lynn strain) and febrile seizures. Febrile seizures normally occur in 2% to 4% of healthy children at least once before the age of 5. The attributable risk febrile seizures vaccine-induced is estimated to be from 1 per 1700 to 1 per 1150 administered doses. The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopaenic purpura (ITP). However, the risk of ITP after vaccination is smaller than after natural infection with these viruses. Natural infection of ITP occur in 5 cases per 100,000 (1 case per 20,000) per year. The attributable risk is estimated about 1 case of ITP per 40,000 administered MMR doses. There is no evidence of an association between MMR immunisation and encephalitis or encephalopathy (rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.61; 2 observational studies; 1,071,088 children; low certainty evidence), and autistic spectrum disorders (rate ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.01; 2 observational studies; 1,194,764 children; moderate certainty). There is insufficient evidence to determine the association between MMR immunisation and inflammatory bowel disease (odds ratio 1.42, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.16; 3 observational studies; 409 cases and 1416 controls; moderate certainty evidence). Additionally, there is no evidence supporting an association between MMR immunisation and cognitive delay, type 1 diabetes, asthma, dermatitis/eczema, hay fever, leukaemia, multiple sclerosis, gait disturbance, and bacterial or viral infections.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Existing evidence on the safety and effectiveness of MMR/MMRV vaccines support their use for mass immunisation. Campaigns aimed at global eradication should assess epidemiological and socioeconomic situations of the countries as well as the capacity to achieve high vaccination coverage. More evidence is needed to assess whether the protective effect of MMR/MMRV could wane with time since immunisation.

Effect of evidence updates on key determinants of measles vaccination impact: a DynaMICE modelling study in ten high-burden countries

BACKGROUND

Model-based estimates of measles burden and the impact of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) are crucial for global health priority setting. Recently, evidence from systematic reviews and database analyses have improved our understanding of key determinants of MCV impact. We explore how representations of these determinants affect model-based estimation of vaccination impact in ten countries with the highest measles burden.

METHODS

Using Dynamic Measles Immunisation Calculation Engine (DynaMICE), we modelled the effect of evidence updates for five determinants of MCV impact: case-fatality risk, contact patterns, age-dependent vaccine efficacy, the delivery of supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) to zero-dose children, and the basic reproduction number. We assessed the incremental vaccination impact of the first (MCV1) and second (MCV2) doses of routine immunisation and SIAs, using metrics of total vaccine-averted cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 2000-2050. We also conducted a scenario capturing the effect of COVID-19 related disruptions on measles burden and vaccination impact.

RESULTS

Incorporated with the updated data sources, DynaMICE projected 253 million measles cases, 3.8 million deaths and 233 million DALYs incurred over 2000-2050 in the ten high-burden countries when MCV1, MCV2, and SIA doses were implemented. Compared to no vaccination, MCV1 contributed to 66% reduction in cumulative measles cases, while MCV2 and SIAs reduced this further to 90%. Among the updated determinants, shifting from fixed to linearly-varying vaccine efficacy by age and from static to time-varying case-fatality risks had the biggest effect on MCV impact. While varying the basic reproduction number showed a limited effect, updates on the other four determinants together resulted in an overall reduction of vaccination impact by 0.58%, 26.2%, and 26.7% for cases, deaths, and DALYs averted, respectively. COVID-19 related disruptions to measles vaccination are not likely to change the influence of these determinants on MCV impact, but may lead to a 3% increase in cases over 2000-2050.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating updated evidence particularly on vaccine efficacy and case-fatality risk reduces estimates of vaccination impact moderately, but its overall impact remains considerable. High MCV coverage through both routine immunisation and SIAs remains essential for achieving and maintaining low incidence in high measles burden settings.

Measles epidemiology and vaccination coverage in Oromia Region, Ethiopia: Evidence from surveillance, 2011-2018

Despite a reported high coverage of measles-containing vaccine (MCV), low-income countries including, Ethiopia, have sustained high measles transmission with frequent outbreaks. We investigated the distribution of measles infection and vaccination in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Ethiopian measles case classification guidelines, measles cases were classified as laboratory-confirmed, clinically compatible, and epidemiologically linked. We derived measles vaccination coverage estimates using reported measles vaccine efficacy and, the proportion of measles cases vaccinated with measles vaccine at least once from the surveillance data. We calculated measles effective reproduction number (R_e) in the region. Almost twenty-five thousand measles cases were reported through the surveillance system, with more than 50% of the suspected and confirmed measles cases reported in 2015. Measles had sustained and high transmission rate with uneven distribution among the zones. Children between 1 and 4 years of age and MCV unvaccinated individuals were the most affected groups. In all the zones, the average surveillance-estimated MCV coverage among both infants and under-five children was significantly lower than the WHO recommended minimum 90% threshold herd-immunity. With this level of vaccination coverage, an infected case can transmit to more than four individuals. Nevertheless, the administrative coverage reports for the concurrent period were consistently above 90%. The estimated MCV coverage across the Oromia region was well below the recommended herd-immunity threshold. It partly explains the apparent mismatch of sustained measles transmission and outbreaks despite the very high administrative coverage estimates. Oromia regional health bureau, in collaboration with key stakeholders, should make a concerted effort to increase the effective-coverage of MCV to at least 90%. Additionally, multiple-dose MCV has to be scaled-up and accompanied with appropriate geographic and age targeting using evidence from surveillance data. Immediate programmatic action is needed to improve the quality of measles surveillance.

Use of Protamine in Nanopharmaceuticals-A Review

Macromolecular biomolecules are currently dethroning classical small molecule therapeutics because of their improved targeting and delivery properties. Protamine-a small polycationic peptide-represents a promising candidate. In nature, it binds and protects DNA against degradation during spermatogenesis due to electrostatic interactions between the negatively charged DNA-phosphate backbone and the positively charged protamine. Researchers are mimicking this technique to develop innovative nanopharmaceutical drug delivery systems, incorporating protamine as a carrier for biologically active components such as DNA or RNA. The first part of this review highlights ongoing investigations in the field of protamine-associated nanotechnology, discussing the self-assembling manufacturing process and nanoparticle engineering. Immune-modulating properties of protamine are those that lead to the second key part, which is protamine in novel vaccine technologies. Protamine-based RNA delivery systems in vaccines (some belong to the new class of mRNA-vaccines) against infectious disease and their use in cancer treatment are reviewed, and we provide an update on the current state of latest developments with protamine as pharmaceutical excipient for vaccines.

How To Prepare for the Unexpected: a Public Health Laboratory Response

Public health laboratories (PHLs) continue to face internal and external challenges to their abilities to provide successful, timely responses to public health crises and emerging threats. These laboratories are mandated to maintain the health of their communities by identifying, diagnosing, and warning constituents of potential and real health emergencies.

Public health laboratories (PHLs) continue to face internal and external challenges to their abilities to provide successful, timely responses to public health crises and emerging threats. These laboratories are mandated to maintain the health of their communities by identifying, diagnosing, and warning constituents of potential and real health emergencies. Due to the changing characteristics of public health threats and their cross-jurisdictional nature, laboratories are facing increased pressure to ensure that they respond in a consistent and coordinated manner. Here, the Association of Public Health Laboratories (APHL) Emerging Leader Program Cohort 11 members have compiled stories from subject matter experts (SMEs) at PHLs with direct involvement in crises to determine the characteristics of a successful response. Experts examined a diverse selection of emerging threats from across PHLs, including infectious diseases, opioids, natural disasters, and government shutdowns. While no public health crisis will be identical to another, overarching themes were consistent across subjects. Experiences from SMEs that could improve future responses to emerging threats are highlighted.

Measles: There is No Vaccine against Vaccine Phobia

In 2000, the United States had effectively eliminated endemic measles. Unfortunately, due to misinformation and non-scientific based concerns, the rate of measles vaccination has declined. The United States is in the midst of its largest outbreak of measles since 2014, with 1,095 confirmed cases as of June 2019. The reasons for the re-emergence of measles and what this epidemic illustrates about the anti-vaccine culture in the United States are explored in this article.

Factors associated with knowledges and attitudes about measles and rubella immunization in a non-health care occupational setting in Japan

INTRODUCTION

Elimination of measles and rubella has been achieved in several countries and some regions. After verified measles elimination, some countries have reported outbreaks among adults in occupational settings such as health care institution and school setting. Studies have reported that knowledge and attitude for measles and/or rubella are significantly associated with immunization uptake in adults, but few studies have been conducted in settings other than health care facilities and schools.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study among 134 office employees during a routine health checkup in June 17-20, 2014, to examine the association between willingness to receive immunization and knowledge and attitudes.

RESULTS

Approximately 75% had a protective level of antibody for measles (PA≥1:256) and rubella (HI ≥ 32 IU/mL). After adjustment for sex, age and immune status, the attitudes that immunization prevents measles (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 7.8, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 2.5-24.7) and prevents infection and transmission to others (aOR = 4.0, 95%CI: 1.4-11.4). Knowing that males are the vulnerable group for rubella infection (aOR = 5.8, 95%CI: 2.4-13.9), attitude that immunization prevents rubella infection (aOR = 7.9, 95%CI: 2.4-26.5), and prevents infection and transmit to others (aOR = 6.7, 95%CI: 2.2-20.1) were significantly associated with willingness to receive immunization after adjustment for sex, age, and immune status.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies have shown that physicians and other health care workers are important source of information for promotion of immunization. Thus, we recommend that physicians educate and promote immunization for measles and/or rubella to adults working in offices during routine health checks.

Economic and Behavioral Influencers of Vaccination and Antimicrobial Use

Despite vast improvements in global vaccination coverage during the last decade, there is a growing trend in vaccine hesitancy and/or refusal globally. This has implications for the acceptance and coverage of a potential vaccine against COVID-19. In the United States, the number of children exempt from vaccination for “philosophical belief-based” non-medical reasons increased in 12 of the 18 states that allowed this policy from 2009 to 2017 (1). Meanwhile, the overuse and misuse of antibiotics, especially in young children, have led to increasing rates of drug resistance that threaten our ability to treat infectious diseases. Vaccine hesitancy and antibiotic overuse exist side-by-side in the same population of young children, and it is unclear why one modality (antibiotics) is universally seen as safe and effective, while the other (vaccines) is seen as potentially hazardous by some. In this review, we consider the drivers shaping the use of vaccines and antibiotics in the context of three factors: individual incentives, risk perceptions, and social norms and group dynamics. We illustrate how these factors contribute to the societal and individual costs of vaccine underuse and antimicrobial overuse. Ultimately, we seek to understand these factors that are at the nexus of infectious disease epidemiology and social science to inform policy-making.

Trends in the uptake of pediatric measles-containing vaccine in the United States: A Disneyland effect?

BACKGROUND

The measles outbreak that began in December 2014 at the California Disneyland theme park in the United States (U.S.) received a high amount of media attention. Media attention can influence health-related behaviors. We investigated the effect of the Disneyland outbreak on measles-containing vaccine (MCV) uptake among U.S. children.

METHODS

We used 2012-2017 National Immunization Survey-Child (NIS-Child) data to examine MCV uptake among U.S. children by 19 months of age. We classified MCV coverage among birth cohorts as exposed based on age at the time of the outbreak. A difference-in-differences design with adjustment for categorical birth cohort was implemented in base models to estimate the exposure effect on the outcomes, ≥1-dose MCV coverage or age at first MCV dose, with pneumococcal conjugate vaccination as a control. Primary analyses included this model adjusted for geographic region, maternal education, race/ethnicity, household income, and insurance status, and an exposure-interaction term with maternal education. All analyses included sampling weights.

RESULTS

The study population represented 34,471,357 children. In base models, the Disneyland outbreak was associated with a 1.0% (95% CI: 0.2%, 1.8%) increase in ≥1-dose MCV coverage and a 6.6 (95% CI: 4.8, 8.5)-day decrease in MCV administration age. In primary analyses, the outbreak was associated with a 3.9% (95% CI: 3.1%, 4.8%) increase in ≥1-dose MCV coverage among children of college-educated mothers, and a 3.2% (95% CI: 0.6%, 5.9%) decrease among children of mothers earning less than a high school degree. Decreases in MCV administration age ranging from 5.9 (95% CI: 3.3, 8.5) to 9.1 (95% CI: 6.8, 11.4) days were observed across maternal education categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The Disneyland outbreak was associated with differential effects on MCV coverage by maternal education and decreases in MCV administration age among U.S. children. These findings may provide useful insights to inform methods to address pediatric MCV undervaccination.

Measles outbreak in Gothenburg urban area, Sweden, 2017 to 2018: low viral load in breakthrough infections

In an outbreak of measles in Gothenburg, Sweden, breakthrough infections (i.e. infections in individuals with a history of vaccination) were common. The objective of this study was to compare measles RNA levels between naïve (i.e. primary) and breakthrough infections. We also propose a fast provisional classification of breakthrough infections. Medical records were reviewed and real-time PCR-positive samples genotyped. Cases were classified as naïve, breakthrough or vaccine infections. We compared clinical symptoms and measles RNA cycle threshold (Ct) values between breakthrough and naïve infections. Sixteen of 28 confirmed cases of measles in this outbreak were breakthrough infections. A fast provisional classification, based on previous history of measles vaccination and detectable levels of measles IgG in acute serum, correctly identified 14 of the 16 breakthrough infections, confirmed by IgG avidity testing. Measles viral load was significantly lower in nasopharyngeal samples from individuals with breakthrough compared with naïve infections (median Ct-values: 32 and 19, respectively, p < 0.0001). No onward transmission from breakthrough infections was identified. Our results indicate that a high risk of onward transmission is limited to naïve infections. We propose a fast provisional classification of breakthrough measles that can guide contact tracing in outbreak settings.

Post-Chemotherapy Titer Status and Need for Revaccination After Treatment for Childhood Cancer

Objectives. To evaluate the strategy of checking vaccine titers after completion of chemotherapy. Study Design. Retrospective review of pediatric oncology patients who completed chemotherapy. Demographics, post-chemotherapy titers, and absolute lymphocyte counts (ALCs) were analyzed. Results. Ninety patients met inclusion criteria, and 87% of patients had at least one titer checked. Comparing patients <7 years and those ≥7 years at diagnosis, there was no difference in incidence of negative titers except mumps; those <7 years old were more likely to have negative titers (58% vs 20%, P = .003). Comparing those <13 years old to ≥13 years old, there was no difference in negative titers except mumps (45% vs 19%, P = .02) and tetanus (44% vs 0%, P = .002). No patient maintained all protective titers after completion of chemotherapy. Time to ALC recovery was not predictive of positive titers. Conclusion. Checking titers after chemotherapy is not recommended. Providers should assume loss of immunity.

Qualitative Variation among Commercial Immunoassays for Detection of Measles-Specific IgG

Measurement of measles virus-specific IgG is used to assess presumptive evidence of immunity among immunocompetent individuals with uncertain immune or vaccination status. False-negative test results may lead to unnecessary quarantine and exclusion from activities such as employment, education, and travel or result in unnecessary revaccination. In contrast, false-positive results may fail to identify susceptible individuals and promote spread of disease by those who are exposed and unprotected. To better understand the performance characteristics of tests to detect measles IgG, we compared five widely used, commercially available measles IgG test platforms using a set of 223 well-characterized serum samples. Measles virus neutralizing antibodies were also measured by in vitro plaque reduction neutralization, the gold standard method, and compared to IgG test results. Discrepant results were observed for samples in the low-positive ranges of the most sensitive tests, but there was good agreement across platforms for IgG-negative sera and for samples with intermediate to high levels of IgG. False-negative test results occurred in approximately 11% of sera, which had low levels of neutralizing antibody.

Vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella in children

BACKGROUND

Measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (chickenpox) are serious diseases that can lead to serious complications, disability, and death. However, public debate over the safety of the trivalent MMR vaccine and the resultant drop in vaccination coverage in several countries persists, despite its almost universal use and accepted effectiveness. This is an update of a review published in 2005 and updated in 2012.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness, safety, and long- and short-term adverse effects associated with the trivalent vaccine, containing measles, rubella, mumps strains (MMR), or concurrent administration of MMR vaccine and varicella vaccine (MMR+V), or tetravalent vaccine containing measles, rubella, mumps, and varicella strains (MMRV), given to children aged up to 15 years.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library 2019, Issue 5), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, MEDLINE (1966 to 2 May 2019), Embase (1974 to 2 May 2019), the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (2 May 2019), and ClinicalTrials.gov (2 May 2019).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), prospective and retrospective cohort studies (PCS/RCS), case-control studies (CCS), interrupted time-series (ITS) studies, case cross-over (CCO) studies, case-only ecological method (COEM) studies, self-controlled case series (SCCS) studies, person-time cohort (PTC) studies, and case-coverage design/screening methods (CCD/SM) studies, assessing any combined MMR or MMRV / MMR+V vaccine given in any dose, preparation or time schedule compared with no intervention or placebo, on healthy children up to 15 years of age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. We grouped studies for quantitative analysis according to study design, vaccine type (MMR, MMRV, MMR+V), virus strain, and study settings. Outcomes of interest were cases of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, and harms. Certainty of evidence of was rated using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 138 studies (23,480,668 participants). Fifty-one studies (10,248,159 children) assessed vaccine effectiveness and 87 studies (13,232,509 children) assessed the association between vaccines and a variety of harms. We included 74 new studies to this 2019 version of the review. Effectiveness Vaccine effectiveness in preventing measles was 95% after one dose (relative risk (RR) 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.13; 7 cohort studies; 12,039 children; moderate certainty evidence) and 96% after two doses (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.28; 5 cohort studies; 21,604 children; moderate certainty evidence). The effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts or preventing transmission to others the children were in contact with after one dose was 81% (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.89; 3 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence), after two doses 85% (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.75; 3 cohort studies; 378 children; low certainty evidence), and after three doses was 96% (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.23; 2 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness (at least one dose) in preventing measles after exposure (post-exposure prophylaxis) was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.50; 2 cohort studies; 283 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness of Jeryl Lynn containing MMR vaccine in preventing mumps was 72% after one dose (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.76; 6 cohort studies; 9915 children; moderate certainty evidence), 86% after two doses (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.35; 5 cohort studies; 7792 children; moderate certainty evidence). Effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.49; 3 cohort studies; 1036 children; moderate certainty evidence). Vaccine effectiveness against rubella is 89% (RR 0.11, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.42; 1 cohort study; 1621 children; moderate certainty evidence). Vaccine effectiveness against varicella (any severity) after two doses in children aged 11 to 22 months is 95% in a 10 years follow-up (rate ratio (rr) 0.05, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.08; 1 RCT; 2279 children; high certainty evidence). Safety There is evidence supporting an association between aseptic meningitis and MMR vaccines containing Urabe and Leningrad-Zagreb mumps strains, but no evidence supporting this association for MMR vaccines containing Jeryl Lynn mumps strains (rr 1.30, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.56; low certainty evidence). The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR/MMR+V/MMRV vaccines (Jeryl Lynn strain) and febrile seizures. Febrile seizures normally occur in 2% to 4% of healthy children at least once before the age of 5. The attributable risk febrile seizures vaccine-induced is estimated to be from 1 per 1700 to 1 per 1150 administered doses. The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopaenic purpura (ITP). However, the risk of ITP after vaccination is smaller than after natural infection with these viruses. Natural infection of ITP occur in 5 cases per 100,000 (1 case per 20,000) per year. The attributable risk is estimated about 1 case of ITP per 40,000 administered MMR doses. There is no evidence of an association between MMR immunisation and encephalitis or encephalopathy (rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.61; 2 observational studies; 1,071,088 children; low certainty evidence), and autistic spectrum disorders (rate ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.01; 2 observational studies; 1,194,764 children; moderate certainty). There is insufficient evidence to determine the association between MMR immunisation and inflammatory bowel disease (odds ratio 1.42, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.16; 3 observational studies; 409 cases and 1416 controls; moderate certainty evidence). Additionally, there is no evidence supporting an association between MMR immunisation and cognitive delay, type 1 diabetes, asthma, dermatitis/eczema, hay fever, leukaemia, multiple sclerosis, gait disturbance, and bacterial or viral infections.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Existing evidence on the safety and effectiveness of MMR/MMRV vaccines support their use for mass immunisation. Campaigns aimed at global eradication should assess epidemiological and socioeconomic situations of the countries as well as the capacity to achieve high vaccination coverage. More evidence is needed to assess whether the protective effect of MMR/MMRV could wane with time since immunisation.

Classification of measles cases from 2014 to 2018: Implications for progress towards measles elimination in China

Measles incidence has decreased dramatically in China due to the implement of measles-containing vaccine (MCV). However, a measles epidemic caused resurgence recently, even among vaccinated individuals. To evaluate the effectiveness of current immunization programs and discuss initiatives for the next step in measles elimination in mainland China, the characteristics of 121,969 laboratory-confirmed measles cases reported in the measles surveillance system (MSS) during 2014-2018 were analyzed according to the vaccination status of the cases in this study. Children under 2 years of age without MCV vaccination (44,424, 36.42% of all cases) and adults over 20 years of age with an unknown vaccination history (37,564, 30.80% of all cases) accounted for the majority of measles cases from 2014 to 2018. 42,425 (34.78%) of the 77,384 cases with available vaccination information were categorized as programmatically preventable. 38,840 (91.55%) of the 42,425 cases were aged ≥8 months without the MCV vaccination history. 34,959 (28.66%) cases were categorized as programmatically non-preventable, of whom 22,611 (64.68%) were too young to receive their first MCV dose, 6857 (19.61%) received their first dose and were too young to receive their second dose, 5491 (15.71%) received at least two doses of MCV. 15,933 (13.06%) of the 121,969 cases had a history of MCV vaccination. Measles virus infection in cases with an MCV vaccination history mainly occurred within the first month after MCV vaccination, especially in those who received a one-dose measles vaccination. MCV vaccination could reduce the frequencies of clinical symptoms and complications of measles cases. Our study confirmed that the current measles immunization programs used in mainland China is effective in reducing the measles incidence in China. Unvaccinated infants/children aged 8-23 months and high risk susceptible adults over 20 years of age with unknown vaccination histories should be the focus groups of measles immunization activities in China in the future.

Exanthematous Eruptions in Children

Childhood exanthems are commonly encountered by pediatricians in the hospital and the office. In the last several decades, we have seen a shift in the epidemiology of many of these diseases. After being deemed eliminated at the turn of 21st century, measles has experienced a resurgence secondary to falling vaccination rates, raising public health concerns. A new variant of hand, foot, and mouth disease caused by coxsackievirus A6 has been associated with more widespread and atypical disease, which can present diagnostic challenges to clinicians. Parvovirus B19, which is traditionally associated with fifth disease, is also the leading cause of papular purpuric gloves and socks syndrome, a rare condition with which providers may be unfamiliar. Since the introduction of routine vaccination, there has been a shift in the epidemiology and clinical presentation of primary varicella and herpes zoster. Finally, the recently described phenomenon of Mycoplasma pneumoniae-induced rash and mucositis will be discussed. [Pediatr Ann. 2020;49(3):e116-e123.].

Measles Antibody Levels in Young Infants

BACKGROUND

Infants are often assumed to be immune to measles through maternal antibodies transferred during pregnancy and, in many countries, receive their first measles-containing vaccine at 12 to 15 months. Immunity may wane before this time in measles-eliminated settings, placing infants at risk for measles and complications. We investigated humoral immunity to measles in infants <12 months of age in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We selected sera collected at a tertiary pediatric hospital from infants <12 months who were born at ≥37 weeks' gestational age. We excluded infants with conditions that affect antibody levels. We selected ≤25 sera from 8 predetermined age bands and tested them for measles-neutralizing antibody using the plaque-reduction neutralization test. We calculated the proportion immune at each age band, and predictors of infant susceptibility were assessed by using multivariable logistic regression and Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Of 196 infant sera, 56% (110 of 196) were from boys, and 35% (69 of 196) were from infants with underlying medical conditions. In the first month, 20% (5 of 25) of infants had antibodies below the protective threshold, which increased to 92% (22 of 24) by 3 months. By 6 months, all infants had titers below the protective threshold. In a multivariable analysis, infant age was the strongest predictor of susceptibility (odds ratio = 2.13 for each additional month increase; 95% confidence interval: 1.52-2.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Most infants were susceptible to measles by 3 months of age in this elimination setting. Our findings inform important policy discussions relating to the timing of the first dose of measles-containing vaccine and infant postexposure prophylaxis recommendations.

Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination

BACKGROUND

Vaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90-95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns.

METHODS

We combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination.

RESULTS

We found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5-9-year-olds than established previously.

CONCLUSIONS

The immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5-9-year-olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination.

Spread of Measles in Europe and Implications for US Travelers

From January 2018 to June 2018, World Health Organization (WHO) European Region countries reported >41 000 measles cases, including 37 deaths, a record high since the 1990s. Low vaccination coverage in previous years is the biggest contributing factor to the increase in cases. The Ukraine reported the majority of cases, but France, Georgia, Greece, Italy, the Russian Federation, and Serbia also reported high case counts. Europe is the most common travel destination worldwide and is widely perceived as being without substantial infectious disease risks. For this reason, travelers may not consider the relevance of a pretravel health consultation, including vaccination, in their predeparture plans. Measles is highly contagious, and the record number of measles cases in the WHO European Region not only puts unvaccinated and inadequately vaccinated travelers at risk but also increases the risk for nontraveling US residents who come into close contact with returned travelers who are ill. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention encourage US travelers to be aware of measles virus transmission in Europe and receive all recommended vaccinations, including for measles, before traveling abroad. Health care providers must maintain a high degree of suspicion for measles among travelers returning from Europe or people with close contact with international travelers who present with a febrile rash illness. The current WHO European Region outbreak should serve to remind health care providers to stay current with the epidemiology of highly transmissible diseases, such as measles, through media, WHO, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports and encourage measles vaccination for international travelers.

Modified Dose Efficacy Trial of a Canine Distemper-Measles Vaccine for Use in Rhesus Macaques (Macaca mulatta)

Measles virus causes a highly infectious disease in NHP. Clinical signs range from asymptomatic to fatal, although measles virus is most well-known for its characteristic generalized maculopapular rash. Along with appropriate quarantine practices, restricted human access, and appropriate personal protective equipment, vaccines are used to combat the risk of infection. The canine distemper-measles vaccine (CDMV), administered at the manufacturer's standard dose (1.0 mL IM), has been shown to be effective against clinical measles disease in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta). The goal of the current study was to test whether doses smaller than the manufacturer's recommended dose stimulated adequate antibody production to protect against infection. We hypothesized that either 0.25 or 0.5 mL IM of CDMV would stimulate antibody production comparable to the manufacturer's recommended dose. We found that the 0.25-mL dose was less effective at inducing antibodies than either the standard (1.0 mL) or 0.5-mL dose, which both yielded similar titers. The primary implication of this study informs balancing resource allocation and providing efficacious immunity. By using half the manufacturer-recommended dose, the 50% cost reduction may provide sufficient monetary incentive to implement, maintain, or modify measles vaccination programs at NHP facilities.

Knowledge and home treatment of measles infection by caregivers of children under five in a low-income urban community, Nigeria

Background

Despite the availability of a safe and effective vaccine for over 50 years, measles remains a leading cause of death among young children in developing countries.

Aim

This study assessed the knowledge and home treatment of measles by caregivers of children under 5 years.

Setting

Abebi community, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.

Methods

A descriptive cross-sectional study of 509 caregivers of children aged 6 months to 5 years in a semi-urban community in Ibadan was conducted using a multi-stage sampling method. An interviewer administered structured questionnaire was used to collect information on socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge of aetiology, main symptoms and signs, and home treatment of measles. Chi-square test and logistic regression were used to explore associations at 5% level of significance.

Results

Most of the caregivers were females (96.3%), married (86.1%) and were the biological parents of the children (90.9%). More than half had good knowledge of the cause (59.7%) and main symptoms and signs (52.8%) of measles. However, the composite knowledge was good in 57.6% of caregivers. Over half (54.4%) of the caregivers reported that their children ever had measles. Majority (91.3%) of caregivers whose children had measles gave home treatment, while 24 (8.7%) sought treatment from health facilities alone. There was a significant association between caregivers’ educational status, age, tribe and marital status and their knowledge of measles; however, tribe was the only significant predictor of knowledge after regression analysis. Caregivers from other tribes were 3.3 times more likely to have good knowledge of measles than Yoruba caregivers. Caregivers who were 35 years and older compared to those younger than 35 years (OR: 0.625; 95% CI: 0.425–0.921) and those who were not currently married compared to those married (OR: 0.455; 95% CI: 0.273–0.758) had lower odds of having good knowledge of measles, respectively.

Conclusion

Home treatment by caregivers of children with measles is high. Health education on the cause, prevention and treatment of measles should be provided for caregivers.

The evolution of stage-specific virulence: Differential selection of parasites in juveniles

The impact of infectious disease is often very different in juveniles and adults, but theory has focused on the drivers of stage-dependent defense in hosts rather than the potential for stage-dependent virulence evolution in parasites. Stage structure has the potential to be important to the evolution of pathogens because it exposes parasites to heterogeneous environments in terms of both host characteristics and transmission pathways. We develop a stage-structured (juvenile-adult) epidemiological model and examine the evolutionary outcomes of stage-specific virulence under the classic assumption of a transmission-virulence trade-off. We show that selection on virulence against adults remains consistent with the classic theory. However, the evolution of juvenile virulence is sensitive to both demography and transmission pathway with higher virulence against juveniles being favored either when the transmission pathway is assortative (juveniles preferentially interact together) and the juvenile stage is long, or in contrast when the transmission pathway is disassortative and the juvenile stage is short. These results highlight the potentially profound effects of host stage structure on determining parasite virulence in nature. This new perspective may have broad implications for both understanding and managing disease severity.

Measles and the Modern History of Vaccination

The modern era of vaccination was heralded with the licensure of the first 2 measles vaccines in 1963. This new era was distinct from the preceding era of vaccination for 4 main reasons. First, federal leadership in support of immunization at the local level grew. Second, immunization proponents championed the required vaccination of children as the best means of ensuring a protected population. Third, immunization proponents championed the idea that mass vaccination would not only help manage infectious diseases but also eradicate them. Fourth, the focus of local and federally supported immunization initiatives began to extend to the "mild" and "moderate" diseases of childhood (eg, measles), so-called because they were seen as less severe than previous targets of mass vaccination, such as smallpox, polio, and diphtheria. This article follows the history of measles to explore immunization successes and challenges in this modern era, because measles was the first of the mild and moderate diseases to become the target of a federally supported eradication-through-vaccination campaign, one that relied heavily on the preemptive, required vaccination of children. Its story thus epitomizes the range of political, epidemiological, cultural, and communications challenges to mass immunization in the modern era of vaccination.

Immunization and Vaccination

Vaccines have been recognized as one of the most successful public health measures. In this chapter, we provide a historical overview of immunization measures and discuss the basics of immunization and vaccination in the context of a pandemic outbreak. We will also discuss vaccine hesitancy, the factors that lead to vaccine acceptance and refusal, the determinants of individual decision-making about vaccination, and strategies of how to approach it on an individual, community, and global level.

Progress towards elimination of measles in Kenya, 2003-2016

Introduction

Measles is targeted for elimination in the World Health Organization African Region by the year 2020. In 2011, Kenya was off track in attaining the 2012 pre-elimination goal. We describe the epidemiology of measles in Kenya and assess progress made towards elimination.

Methods

We reviewed national case-based measles surveillance and immunization data from January 2003 to December 2016. A case was confirmed if serum was positive for anti-measles IgM antibody, was epidemiologically linked to a laboratory-confirmed case or clinically compatible. Data on case-patient demographics, vaccination status, and clinical outcome and measles containing vaccine (MCV) coverage were analyzed. We calculated measles surveillance indicators and incidence, using population estimates for the respective years.

Results

The coverage of first dose MCV (MCV1) increased from 65% to 86% from 2003-2012, then declined to 75% in 2016. Coverage of second dose MCV (MCV2) remained < 50% since introduction in 2013. During 2003-2016, there were 26,188 suspected measles cases were reported, with 9043(35%) confirmed cases, and 165 deaths (case fatality rate, 1.8%). The non-measles febrile rash illness rate was consistently > 2/100,000 population, and “80% of the sub-national level investigated a case in 11 of the 14 years. National incidence ranged from 4 to 62/million in 2003-2006 and decreased to 3/million in 2016. The age specific incidence ranged from 1 to 364/million population and was highest among children aged < 1 year.

Conclusion

Kenya has made progress towards measles elimination. However, this progress remains at risk and the recent declines in MCV1 coverage and the low uptake in MCV2 could reverse these gains.

Effectiveness of Measles Vaccination and Immune Globulin Post-Exposure Prophylaxis in an Outbreak Setting-New York City, 2013

Background

Measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) or immune globulin (IG) are routinely used for measles post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). However, current literature on the effectiveness of measles PEP is limited and variable. Here, we examined the effectiveness of MMR and IG PEP among children exposed to measles during an outbreak in New York City (NYC) in 2013.

Methods

Contacts were identified by the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene between 13 March 2013 and 30 June 2013. Immunity to measles and receipt of PEP was determined for contacts. PEP effectiveness [(1 - relative risk of developing measles) × 100] was calculated for MMR, IG, and any PEP (MMR or IG) for nonimmune contacts aged <19 years.

Results

A total of 3409 contacts were identified, of which 208 (6.1%), 274 (8.0%), and 318 (9.3%) met the inclusion criteria for analysis of MMR, IG, and any PEP effectiveness, respectively. Of the contacts included, 44 received MMR PEP and 77 received IG PEP. Effectiveness of MMR PEP was 83.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.4%, 95.8%). No contact who received IG PEP developed measles; effectiveness of IG PEP was 100% (approximated 95% CI, 56.2%, 99.8%). Effectiveness of receiving any PEP (MMR or IG) was 92.9% (95% CI, 56.2%, 99.8%).

Conclusions

Contacts who received PEP were less likely to develop disease. Our findings support current recommendations for administration of PEP following exposure to measles. These results highlight the importance of a rapid public health outbreak response to limit measles transmission following case identification.

A Case of Early Onset Subacute Sclerosing Panencephalitis Presented as Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy

A 7.5 years girl presented with myoclonic jerks with prolonged duration coming progressively at shorter intervals for last six moinths. There was declining academic performances. The dystonic, dyskinetic movements and ataxia were there for last three months. The stages were progressing too rapidly. IgG antibody titre to measles virus was found to be positive with EEG changes which confirms diagnosis. SSPE at so early age with atypical presentation is unique in this indexed case.

Public Health and Economic Consequences of Vaccine Hesitancy for Measles in the United States

IMPORTANCE

Routine childhood vaccination is declining in some regions of the United States due to vaccine hesitancy, which risks the resurgence of many infectious diseases with public health and economic consequences. There are ongoing policy debates on the state and national level, including legislation around nonmedical (personal-belief) exemptions for childhood vaccination and possibly a special government commission on vaccine safety, which may affect vaccine coverage.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the number of measles cases in US children and the associated economic costs under scenarios of different levels of vaccine hesitancy, using the case example of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination and measles.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Publicly available data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to simulate county-level MMR vaccination coverage in children (age 2-11 years) in the United States. A stochastic mathematical model was adapted for infectious disease transmission that estimated a distribution for outbreak size as it relates to vaccine coverage. Economic costs per measles case were obtained from the literature. The predicted effects of increasing the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy as well as the removal of nonmedical exemptions were estimated. The model was calibrated to annual measles cases in US children over recent years, and the model prediction was validated using an independent data set from England and Wales.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Annual measles cases in the United States and the associated public sector costs.

RESULTS

A 5% decline in MMR vaccine coverage in the United States would result in an estimated 3-fold increase in measles cases for children aged 2 to 11 years nationally every year, with an additional $2.1 million in public sector costs. The numbers would be substantially higher if unvaccinated infants, adolescents, and adult populations were also considered. There was variation around these estimates due to the stochastic elements of measles importation and sensitivity of some model inputs, although the trend was robust.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This analysis predicts that even minor reductions in childhood vaccination, driven by vaccine hesitancy (nonmedical and personal belief exemptions), will have substantial public health and economic consequences. The results support an urgent need to address vaccine hesitancy in policy dialogues at the state and national level, with consideration of removing personal belief exemptions of childhood vaccination.

The importance of immunization in cancer prevention, treatment, and survivorship

Answer questions and earn CME/CNE A measles outbreak originating in California during 2014 and 2015 called attention to the potential for infectious disease outbreaks related to underimmunized populations in the United States and the potential risk to pediatric patients with cancer attending school when such outbreaks occur. Compliance with vaccine recommendations is important for the prevention of hepatitis B-related and human papillomavirus-related cancers and for protecting immunocompromised patients with cancer, and these points are often overlooked, resulting in the continued occurrence of vaccine-preventable neoplastic and infectious diseases and complications. This article provides an overview of the importance of vaccines in the context of cancer and encourages clinician, health system, and public policy efforts to promote adherence to immunization recommendations in the United States. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:398-410. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Vaccine exemptions and the kindergarten vaccination coverage gap

BACKGROUND

Vaccination requirements for kindergarten entry vary by state, but all states require 2 doses of measles containing vaccine (MCV) at kindergarten entry.

OBJECTIVE

To assess (i) national MCV vaccination coverage for children who had attended kindergarten; (ii) the extent to which undervaccination after kindergarten entry is attributable to parents' requests for an exemption; (iii) the extent to which undervaccinated children had missed opportunities to be administered missing vaccine doses among children whose parent did not request an exemption; and (iv) the vaccination coverage gap between the "highest achievable" MCV coverage and actual MCV coverage among children who had attended kindergarten.

METHODS

A national survey of 1465 parents of 5-7year-old children was conducted during October 2013 through March 2014. Vaccination coverage estimates are based provider-reported vaccination histories. Children have a "missed opportunity" for MCV if they were not up-to-date and if there were dates on which other vaccines were administered but not MCV. The "highest achievable" MCV vaccination coverage rate is 100% minus the sum of the percentages of (i) undervaccinated children with parents who requested an exemption; and (ii) undervaccinated children with parents who did not request an exemption and whose vaccination statuses were assessed during a kindergarten grace period or period when they were provisionally enrolled in kindergarten.

RESULTS

Among all children undervaccinated for MCV, 2.7% were attributable to having a parent who requested an exemption. Among children who were undervaccinated for MCV and whose parent did not request an exemption, 41.6% had a missed opportunity for MCV. The highest achievable MCV coverage was 98.6%, actual MCV coverage was 90.9%, and the kindergarten vaccination gap was 7.7%.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination coverage may be increased by schools fully implementing state kindergarten vaccination laws, and by providers assessing children's vaccination status at every clinic visit, and administering missed vaccine doses.

A measles outbreak in Sindh, Pakistan caused by a genotype B3 virus

Measles continues to be a major public health issue causing substantial outbreaks worldwide, mostly affecting young children. Molecular analysis of measles viruses provides important information on outbreak linkages and transmission pathways that can be helpful towards implementation of appropriate control programs. In Pakistan, the control of measles is still tenuous, and progress towards elimination has been irregular and challenging. In the 2013 measles outbreak we received 4,682 sera collected from suspected patients in 23 districts across Sindh. A total of 3,283 samples were confirmed measles positive using IgM ELISA with the highest infection rate in children aged 1-12 months. Males were more affected than females and a visible peak was observed from January to April. Among the 3,283 cases, 59.1% were unvaccinated, 29.6% had received 1 dose and 10.3% had received 2 doses of measles vaccine while 0.85% had an unknown vaccination status. For genotype detection and phylogenetic analysis, 60 throat swab samples were collected from suspected patients below 15 years of age in eight districts of Sindh province. Forty four (73%; 44/60) throat swab samples were successfully genotyped using RT-PCR. Phylogenetic analyses based on partial sequences of the nucleocapsid protein gene revealed that all Pakistani measles virus strains belonged to genotype B3 and were closely related to those isolated from neighboring countries such as Iran, Afghanistan (99.1-100%) and India with 98.6 - 99.6% nucleotide homology. This is the first report on the phylogenetic analysis of measles B3 genotype strains from Pakistan and highlights the need for strengthening the surveillance systems and improving immunization coverage across the country.

Global Transmission Dynamics of Measles in the Measles Elimination Era

Although there have been many epidemiological reports of the inter-country transmission of measles, systematic analysis of the global transmission dynamics of the measles virus (MV) is limited. In this study, we applied phylogeographic analysis to characterize the global transmission dynamics of the MV using large-scale genetic sequence data (obtained for 7456 sequences) from 115 countries between 1954 and 2015. These analyses reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of global transmission of the virus, especially in Australia, China, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA in the period since 1990. The transmission is frequently observed, not only within the same region but also among distant and frequently visited areas. Frequencies of export from measles-endemic countries, such as China, India, and Japan are high but decreasing, while the frequencies from countries where measles is no longer endemic, such as Australia, the UK, and the USA, are low but slightly increasing. The world is heading toward measles eradication, but the disease is still transmitted regionally and globally. Our analysis reveals that countries wherein measles is endemic and those having eliminated the disease (apart from occasional outbreaks) both remain a source of global transmission in this measles elimination era. It is therefore crucial to maintain vigilance in efforts to monitor and eradicate measles globally.

The Effect of Contact Investigations and Public Health Interventions in the Control and Prevention of Measles Transmission: A Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Measles cases continue to occur despite its elimination status in the United States. To control transmission, public health officials confirm the measles diagnosis, identify close contacts of infectious cases, deliver public health interventions (i.e., post-exposure prophylaxis) among those who are eligible, and follow-up with the close contacts to determine overall health outcomes. A stochastic network simulation of measles contact tracing was conducted using existing agent-based modeling software and a synthetic population with high levels of immunity in order to estimate the impact of different interventions in controlling measles transmission.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The synthetic population was created to simulate California`s population in terms of population demographics, household, workplace, school, and neighborhood characteristics using California Department of Finance 2010 census data. Parameters for the model were obtained from a review of the literature, California measles case surveillance data, and expert opinion. Eight different scenarios defined by the use of three different public health interventions were evaluated: (a) post-exposure measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, (b) post-exposure immune globulin (IG), and (c) voluntary isolation and home quarantine in the presence or absence of public health response delays. Voluntary isolation and home quarantine coupled with one or two other interventions had the greatest reduction in the number of secondary cases infected by the index case and the probability of escape situations (i.e., the outbreak continues after 90 days).

CONCLUSIONS

Interrupting contact patterns via voluntary isolation and home quarantine are particularly important in reducing the number of secondary cases infected by the index case and the probability of uncontrolled outbreaks.

Vaccine technologies: From whole organisms to rationally designed protein assemblies

Vaccines have been the single most significant advancement in public health, preventing morbidity and mortality in millions of people annually. Vaccine development has traditionally focused on whole organism vaccines, either live attenuated or inactivated vaccines. While successful for many different infectious diseases whole organisms are expensive to produce, require culture of the infectious agent, and have the potential to cause vaccine associated disease in hosts. With advancing technology and a desire to develop safe, cost effective vaccine candidates, the field began to focus on the development of recombinantly expressed antigens known as subunit vaccines. While more tolerable, subunit vaccines tend to be less immunogenic. Attempts have been made to increase immunogenicity with the addition of adjuvants, either immunostimulatory molecules or an antigen delivery system that increases immune responses to vaccines. An area of extreme interest has been the application of nanotechnology to vaccine development, which allows for antigens to be expressed on a particulate delivery system. One of the most exciting examples of nanovaccines are rationally designed protein nanoparticles. These nanoparticles use some of the basic tenants of structural biology, biophysical chemistry, and vaccinology to develop protective, safe, and easily manufactured vaccines. Rationally developed nanoparticle vaccines are one of the most promising candidates for the future of vaccine development.

Measles Outbreak Among Previously Immunized Healthcare Workers, the Netherlands, 2014

BACKGROUND

 We investigated a measles outbreak among healthcare workers (HCWs) by assessing laboratory characteristics, measles vaccine effectiveness, and serological correlates for protection.

METHODS

 Cases were laboratory-confirmed measles in HCWs from hospital X during weeks 12-20 of 2014. We assessed cases' severity and infectiousness by using a questionnaire. We tested cases' sera for measles immunoglobulin M, immunoglobulin G, avidity, and plaque reduction neutralization (PRN). Throat swabs and oral fluid samples were tested by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. We calculated attack rates (ARs) by vaccination status and estimated measles vaccine effectiveness as 1 - [AR_vaccinated/AR_unvaccinated].

RESULTS

 Eight HCWs were notified as measles cases; 6 were vaccinated with measles vaccine twice, 1 was vaccinated once, and 1 was unvaccinated. All 6 twice-vaccinated cases had high avidity and PRN titers. None reported severe measles or onward transmission. Two of 4 investigated twice-vaccinated cases had pre-illness PRN titers of >120 mIU/mL. Among 106 potentially exposed HCWs, the estimated effectiveness of 2 doses of measles vaccine was 52% (95% confidence interval [CI], -207%-93%).

CONCLUSIONS

 Measles occurred in 6 twice-vaccinated HCWs, despite 2 having adequate pre-exposure neutralizing antibodies. None of the twice-vaccinated cases had severe measles, and none had onward transmission, consistent with laboratory findings suggesting a secondary immune response. Improving 2-dose MMR coverage among HCWs would have likely reduced the size of this outbreak.

Texas and Its Measles Epidemics

Peter Hotez reflects on declining vaccination rates in Texas and the potential for future measles epidemics.

High Concentrations of Measles Neutralizing Antibodies and High-Avidity Measles IgG Accurately Identify Measles Reinfection Cases

In the United States, approximately 9% of the measles cases reported from 2012 to 2014 occurred in vaccinated individuals. Laboratory confirmation of measles in vaccinated individuals is challenging since IgM assays can give inconclusive results. Although a positive reverse transcription (RT)-PCR assay result from an appropriately timed specimen can provide confirmation, negative results may not rule out a highly suspicious case. Detection of high-avidity measles IgG in serum samples provides laboratory evidence of a past immunologic response to measles from natural infection or immunization. High concentrations of measles neutralizing antibody have been observed by plaque reduction neutralization (PRN) assays among confirmed measles cases with high-avidity IgG, referred to here as reinfection cases (RICs). In this study, we evaluated the utility of measuring levels of measles neutralizing antibody to distinguish RICs from noncases by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Single and paired serum samples with high-avidity measles IgG from suspected measles cases submitted to the CDC for routine surveillance were used for the analysis. The RICs were confirmed by a 4-fold rise in PRN titer or by RT-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) assay, while the noncases were negative by both assays. Discrimination accuracy was high with serum samples collected ≥3 days after rash onset (area under the curve, 0.953; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.854 to 0.993). Measles neutralizing antibody concentrations of ≥40,000 mIU/ml identified RICs with 90% sensitivity (95% CI, 74 to 98%) and 100% specificity (95% CI, 82 to 100%). Therefore, when serological or RT-qPCR results are unavailable or inconclusive, suspected measles cases with high-avidity measles IgG can be confirmed as RICs by measles neutralizing antibody concentrations of ≥40,000 mIU/ml.

Modeling Measles Transmission in the North American Amish and Options for Outbreak Response

Measles outbreaks in the United States continue to occur in subpopulations with sufficient numbers of undervaccinated individuals, with a 2014 outbreak in Amish communities in Ohio pushing the annual cases to the highest national number reported in the last 20 years. We adapted an individual-based model developed to explore potential poliovirus transmission in the North American Amish to characterize a 1988 measles outbreak in the Pennsylvania Amish and the 2014 outbreak in the Ohio Amish. We explored the impact of the 2014 outbreak response compared to no or partial response. Measles can spread very rapidly in an underimmunized subpopulation like the North American Amish, with the potential for national spread within a year or so in the absence of outbreak response. Vaccination efforts significantly reduced the transmission of measles and the expected number of cases. Until global eradication, measles importations will continue to pose a threat to clusters of underimmunized individuals in the United States. Aggressive outbreak response efforts in Ohio probably prevented widespread transmission of measles within the entire North American Amish.

Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis

The devastation caused by periodic measles outbreaks motivated efforts over more than a century to mathematically model measles disease and transmission. Following the identification of rubella, which similarly presents with fever and rash and causes congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in infants born to women first infected with rubella early in pregnancy, modelers also began to characterize rubella disease and transmission. Despite the relatively large literature, no comprehensive review to date provides an overview of dynamic transmission models for measles and rubella developed to support risk and policy analysis. This systematic review of the literature identifies quantitative measles and/or rubella dynamic transmission models and characterizes key insights relevant for prospective modeling efforts. Overall, measles and rubella represent some of the relatively simplest viruses to model due to their ability to impact only humans and the apparent life-long immunity that follows survival of infection and/or protection by vaccination, although complexities arise due to maternal antibodies and heterogeneity in mixing and some models considered potential waning immunity and reinfection. This review finds significant underreporting of measles and rubella infections and widespread recognition of the importance of achieving and maintaining high population immunity to stop and prevent measles and rubella transmission. The significantly lower transmissibility of rubella compared to measles implies that all countries could eliminate rubella and CRS by using combination of measles- and rubella-containing vaccines (MRCVs) as they strive to meet regional measles elimination goals, which leads to the recommendation of changing the formulation of national measles-containing vaccines from measles only to MRCV as the standard of care.