Chart-confirmed guillain-barre syndrome after 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccination among the Medicare population, 2009-2010

Vaccine patterns among older adults with Guillain-Barré syndrome and matched comparators, 2006-2019

BACKGROUND

Some vaccines have a small risk of triggering Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), an autoimmune disorder where nerve damage leads to paralysis. There is a CDC precaution for patients whose GBS was associated with an influenza or tetanus toxoid-containing vaccine (GBS occurring within 42 days following vaccination).

METHODS

We described vaccine patterns before and after a GBS diagnosis with a matched cohort design in a 20% random sample of fee-for-service Medicare enrollees. We defined the index date as an ICD-9-CM or ICD-10-CM GBS diagnosis code in the primary position of an inpatient claim. We matched each GBS patient to five non-GBS comparators on sex, exact age, racial and ethnic category, state of residence and the month of preventive health visits during baseline; used weighting to balance covariates; and measured frequency of vaccines received per 100 people during year before and after the index date using the weighted mean cumulative count (wMCC).

RESULTS

We identified 1567 patients with a GBS diagnosis with at least 1 year of prior continuous enrollment in Medicare A and B that matched to five comparators each. The wMCCs in the 1 year before the index date were similar for both groups, with a wMCC of 74 vaccines/100 people in the GBS group (95% CI 71, 77). Within 1 year after the index date, patients with GBS had received 26 vaccines/100 people (95% CI 23, 28), which was 41 fewer vaccines than matched non-GBS comparators (95% CI -44, -38). Among GBS patients, 11% were diagnosed with GBS within 42 days after a vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

GBS diagnosis has a strong impact on reducing subsequent vaccination even though there is no warning or precaution about future vaccines for most patients diagnosed with GBS. These data suggest discordance between clinical practice and current vaccine recommendations.

Development of Interoperable Computable Phenotype Algorithms for Adverse Events of Special Interest to Be Used for Biologics Safety Surveillance: Validation Study

BACKGROUND

Adverse events associated with vaccination have been evaluated by epidemiological studies and more recently have gained additional attention with the emergency use authorization of several COVID-19 vaccines. As part of its responsibility to conduct postmarket surveillance, the US Food and Drug Administration continues to monitor several adverse events of special interest (AESIs) to ensure vaccine safety, including for COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE

This study is part of the Biologics Effectiveness and Safety Initiative, which aims to improve the Food and Drug Administration's postmarket surveillance capabilities while minimizing public burden. This study aimed to enhance active surveillance efforts through a rules-based, computable phenotype algorithm to identify 5 AESIs being monitored by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 or other vaccines: anaphylaxis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, myocarditis/pericarditis, thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome, and febrile seizure. This study examined whether these phenotypes have sufficiently high positive predictive value (PPV) to ensure that the cases selected for surveillance are reasonably likely to be a postbiologic adverse event. This allows patient privacy, and security concerns for the data sharing of patients who had nonadverse events can be properly accounted for when evaluating the cost-benefit aspect of our approach.

METHODS

AESI phenotype algorithms were developed to apply to electronic health record data at health provider organizations across the country by querying for standard and interoperable codes. The codes queried in the rules represent symptoms, diagnoses, or treatments of the AESI sourced from published case definitions and input from clinicians. To validate the performance of the algorithms, we applied them to electronic health record data from a US academic health system and provided a sample of cases for clinicians to evaluate. Performance was assessed using PPV.

RESULTS

With a PPV of 93.3%, our anaphylaxis algorithm performed the best. The PPVs for our febrile seizure, myocarditis/pericarditis, thrombocytopenia syndrome, and Guillain-Barré syndrome algorithms were 89%, 83.5%, 70.2%, and 47.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Given our algorithm design and performance, our results support continued research into using interoperable algorithms for widespread AESI postmarket detection.

Incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome in the world between 1985 and 2020: A systematic review

Introduction

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an acute inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy that affects the peripheral nervous system. The study aimed to describe the incidence of GBS in the world up to the year 2020.

Methods

A systematic review was conducted. Searches were done in four databases, PUBMED, EMBASE, EBSCO and Biblioteca virtual em Saude (BVS), and in grey literature and manual search in the reference lists of eligible studies.

Results

A total of 72 studies were included. The incidence of GBS among the cohort studies varied from 0.30 to 6.08 cases per 100.000 habitants and 0.42 to 6.58 cases per 100.000 person-years. Among the self-controlled studies, the risk incidence ranged from 0.072 to 1 case per 100.000 habitants and 1.73 to 4.30 cases per 100.000 person-years.

Conclusions

The reported incidence of GBS in the world among the studies included in the review is slightly higher than that reported in previous studies. The highest incidence rates were associated with public health events of international concern.

Vaccine patterns among patients diagnosed with Guillain-Barré Syndrome and matched counterparts in a Medicare supplemental population, 2000-2020

Some vaccines have a small risk of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS), a rare autoimmune disorder characterized by paralysis if untreated. The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) guidelines do not consider GBS a precaution for future vaccines unless GBS developed within six weeks after a tetanus-toxoid-containing vaccine or influenza vaccine. Our goal was to describe vaccine patterns before and after GBS diagnosis. We matched each of 709 patients diagnosed with GBS from 2002 to 2020 with Medicare supplemental insurance to 10 counterparts without GBS (1:10) on age and sex. Propensity score-based weighting balanced covariates between groups, and we estimated weighted mean cumulative counts (wMCC) of vaccines/person before and after GBS diagnosis. Among patients with GBS, 7% were diagnosed within 42 days after a vaccine. Prior to GBS diagnosis, the wMCC of vaccines per person was similar between GBS cases and matched counterparts, but after two years of follow-up, GBS patients received 21 fewer vaccines/100 people than counterparts (wMCC difference -0.21 vaccines/person, 95% CI -0.24 to -0.18); GBS patients received 16 vaccines/100 people while matched counterparts received 36/100. Vaccine use was reduced following GBS diagnosis despite no ACIP precaution for most (93%) patients in this study. The observed drop in vaccines after GBS diagnosis indicates a disconnect between clinical practice and current recommendations.

Adverse events following third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccination among nursing home residents who received the primary series

BACKGROUND

We sought to compare rates of adverse events among nursing home residents who received an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine booster dose with those who had not yet received their booster.

METHODS

We assessed a prospective cohort of 11,200 nursing home residents who received a primary COVID-19 mRNA vaccine series at least 6 months prior to September 22, 2021 and received a third "booster dose" between September 22, 2021 and February 2, 2022. Residents lived in 239 nursing homes operated by Genesis HealthCare, spanning 21 U.S. states. We screened electronic health records for 20 serious vaccine-related adverse events that are monitored following receipt of COVID-19 vaccination by the CDC's Vaccine Safety Datalink. We matched boosted and yet-to-be boosted residents during the same time period, comparing rates of events occurring 14 days after booster administration with those occurring 14 days prior to booster administration. To supplement previously reported background rates of adverse events, we report background rates of medical conditions among nursing home residents during 2020, before COVID-19 vaccines were administered in nursing homes. Events occurring in 2021-2022 were confirmed by physician chart review. We report unadjusted rates of adverse events and used a false discovery rate procedure to adjust for multiplicity of events tested.

RESULTS

No adverse events were reported during the 14 days post-booster. A few adverse events occurred prior to booster (ischemic stroke: 49.4 per 100,000 residents, 95% CI: 21.2, 115.7; venous thromboembolism: 9.9 per 100,000 residents, 95% CI: 1.7, 56.0), though differences in event rates pre- versus post-booster were not statistically significant (p < 0.05) after adjusting for multiple comparisons. No significant differences were detected between post-booster vaccination rates and prior year 14-day background rates of medical conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

No safety signals were detected following a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine booster dose in this large multi-state sample of nursing home residents.

Population-Based Incidence of Guillain-Barré Syndrome During Mass Immunization With Viral Vaccines: A Pooled Analysis

Misunderstanding temporal coincidence of adverse events during mass vaccination and invalid assessment of possible safety concerns have negative effects on immunization programs, leading to low immunization coverage. We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to identify the incidence rates of GBS that are temporally associated with viral vaccine administration but might not be attributable to the vaccines. By literature search in Embase and PubMed, we included 48 publications and 2,110,441,600 participants. The pooled incidence rate of GBS was 3.09 per million persons (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.67 to 3.51) within six weeks of vaccination, equally 2.47 per 100,000 person-year (95%CI: 2.14 to 2.81). Subgroup analyses illustrated that the pooled rates were 2.77 per million persons (95%CI: 2.47 to 3.07) for individuals who received the influenza vaccine and 2.44 per million persons (95%CI: 0.97 to 3.91) for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines, respectively. Our findings evidence the GBS-associated safety of virus vaccines. We present a reference for the evaluation of post-vaccination GBS rates in mass immunization campaigns, including the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

Risk of Guillain-Barré Syndrome Following Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Medicare Beneficiaries

IMPORTANCE

Guillain-Barré syndrome can be reported after vaccination. This study assesses the risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after administration of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV or Shingrix), which is administered in 2 doses 2 to 6 months apart.

OBJECTIVE

Use Medicare claims data to evaluate risk of developing Guillain-Barré syndrome following vaccination with zoster vaccine.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This case series cohort study included 849 397 RZV-vaccinated and 1 817 099 zoster vaccine live (ZVL or Zostavax)-vaccinated beneficiaries aged 65 years or older. Self-controlled analyses included events identified from 2 113 758 eligible RZV-vaccinated beneficiaries 65 years or older. We compared the relative risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after RZV vs ZVL, followed by claims-based and medical record-based self-controlled case series analyses to assess risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome during a postvaccination risk window (days 1-42) compared with a control window (days 43-183). In self-controlled analyses, RZV vaccinees were observed from October 1, 2017, to February 29, 2020. Patients were identified in the inpatient, outpatient procedural (including emergency department), and office settings using Medicare administrative data.

EXPOSURES

Vaccination with RZV or ZVL vaccines.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Guillain-Barré syndrome was identified in Medicare administrative claims data, and cases were assessed through medical record review using the Brighton Collaboration case definition.

RESULTS

Amongst those who received RZV vaccinees, the mean age was 74.8 years at first dose, and 58% were women, whereas among those who received the ZVL vaccine, the mean age was 74.3 years, and 60% were women. In the cohort analysis we detected an increase in risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome among RZV vaccinees compared with ZVL vaccinees (rate ratio [RR], 2.34; 95% CI, 1.01-5.41; P = .047). In the self-controlled analyses, we observed 24 and 20 cases during the risk and control period, respectively. Our claims-based analysis identified an increased risk in the risk window compared with the control window (RR, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.53-5.27; P = .001), with an attributable risk of 3 per million RZV doses (95% CI, 0.62-5.64). Our medical record-based analysis confirmed this increased risk (RR, 4.96; 95% CI, 1.43-17.27; P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Findings of this case series cohort study indicate a slightly increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome during the 42 days following RZV vaccination in the Medicare population, with approximately 3 excess Guillain-Barré syndrome cases per million vaccinations. Clinicians and patients should be aware of this risk, while considering the benefit of decreasing the risk of herpes zoster and its complications through an efficacious vaccine, as risk-benefit balance remains in favor of vaccination.

Influenza Virus and SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines

Seasonal influenza and the current COVID-19 pandemic represent looming global health challenges. Efficacious and safe vaccines remain the frontline tools for mitigating both influenza virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-induced diseases. This review will discuss the existing strategies for influenza vaccines and how these strategies have informed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. It will also discuss new vaccine platforms and potential challenges for both viruses.

U.S. Population-Based background incidence rates of medical conditions for use in safety assessment of COVID-19 vaccines

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a devastating impact on global health, and has resulted in an unprecedented, international collaborative effort to develop vaccines to control the outbreak, protect human lives, and avoid further social and economic disruption. Mass vaccination campaigns are underway in multiple countries and are expected worldwide once more vaccine becomes available. Some early candidate vaccines use novel platforms, such as mRNA encapsulated in lipid nanoparticles, and relatively new platforms, such as replication-deficient viral vectors. While these new vaccine platforms hold promise, limited safety data in humans are available. Serious health outcomes linked to vaccinations are rare, and some outcomes may occur incidentally in the vaccinated population. Knowledge of background incidence rates of these medical conditions is a critical component of vaccine safety monitoring to aid in the assessment of adverse events temporally associated with vaccination and to put these events into context with what would be expected due to chance alone. A list of 22 potential adverse events of special interest (AESI), including neurologic, autoimmune, and cardiovascular disorders, was compiled by subject matter experts at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The most recently available U.S. background rates for these medical conditions, overall and by age, sex, and race/ethnicity (when available), were sourced from reported statistics (data published by medical panels/ associations or federal government reports), and literature reviews in PubMed. This review provides estimates of background incidence rates for medical conditions that may be monitored or studied as AESI during safety surveillance and research for COVID-19 vaccines and other new vaccines.

Guillain-Barré Syndrome After High-Dose Influenza Vaccine Administration in the United States, 2018-2019 Season

BACKGROUND

The Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) identified a statistical signal for an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in days 1-42 after 2018-2019 high-dose influenza vaccine (IIV3-HD) administration. We evaluated the signal using Medicare.

METHODS

We conducted early- and end-of-season claims-based self-controlled risk interval analyses among Medicare beneficiaries ages ≥65 years, using days 8-21 and 1-42 postvaccination as risk windows and days 43-84 as control window. The VSD conducted chart-confirmed analyses.

RESULTS

Among 7 453 690 IIV3-HD vaccinations, we did not detect a statistically significant increased GBS risk for either the 8- to 21-day (odds ratio [OR], 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-3.44) or 1- to 42-day (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.78-2.18) risk windows. The findings from the end-of-season analyses were fully consistent with the early-season analyses for both the 8- to 21-day (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 0.92-2.91) and 1- to 42-day (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.70-1.79) risk windows. The VSD's chart-confirmed analysis, involving 646 996 IIV3-HD vaccinations, with 1 case each in the risk and control windows, yielded a relative risk of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.06-15.99).

CONCLUSIONS

The Medicare analyses did not exclude an association between IIV3-HD and GBS, but it determined that, if such a risk existed, it was similar in magnitude to prior seasons. Chart-confirmed VSD results did not confirm an increased risk of GBS.

Antigenic Variability a Potential Factor in Assessing Relationship Between Guillain Barré Syndrome and Influenza Vaccine - Up to Date Literature Review

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a possible serious adverse event of the influenza vaccine but it is yet to be proven. The objective of our traditional literature review is to assess the potential relationship between GBS and influenza vaccine. A traditional literature review has been carried out by selecting 26 articles from PubMed published between 2011 and 2020. Twenty-six articles met the selection criteria (eight observational studies, four systematic literature review, three meta-analyses, two case-control, two retrospective cohort, and seven case series). Selected studies were focused on monitoring the safety of influenza vaccines, the relative safety of pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines, influenza vaccine a potential etiology of GBS, and pathogenesis of post-vaccination GBS. Few studies have shown a higher incidence of GBS with a pandemic influenza vaccine compared to the seasonal influenza vaccine, while several studies have concluded a small increase in the possibility of GBS following any type of influenza vaccine. There were some studies that estimated no association possibly due to the presence of confounding factors such as influenza-like illness, low power of the study, and reporting bias in post-vaccination surveillance programs. GSB should be taken into consideration as one of the less common but serious side effects of the influenza vaccine but it should not adversely affect the acceptance of the influenza vaccination program. Continuous monitoring of influenza vaccine safety should be performed regularly.

COVID-19 and neuromuscular disorders

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has potential to disproportionately and severely affect patients with neuromuscular disorders. In a short period of time, it has already caused reorganization of neuromuscular clinical care delivery and education, which will likely have lasting effects on the field. This article reviews (1) potential neuromuscular complications of COVID-19, (2) assessment and mitigation of COVID-19-related risk for patients with preexisting neuromuscular disease, (3) guidance for management of immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory therapies, (4) practical guidance regarding neuromuscular care delivery, telemedicine, and education, and (5) effect on neuromuscular research. We outline key unanswered clinical questions and highlight the need for team-based and interspecialty collaboration. Primary goals of clinical research during this time are to develop evidence-based best practices and to minimize morbidity and mortality related to COVID-19 for patients with neuromuscular disorders.

Comparison of alpha-spending plans for near real-time monitoring for Guillain-Barré Syndrome after influenza vaccination during the 2010/11 influenza season

BACKGROUND

Near real-time surveillance of the influenza vaccine, which is administered to a large proportion of the US population every year, is essential to ensure safety of the vaccine. For efficient near real-time surveillance, it is key to select appropriate parameters such as monitoring start date, number of interim tests and a scheme for spending a pre-defined total alpha across the entire influenza season. Guillain-Barré Syndrome, shown to be associated with the 1976 influenza vaccine, is used to evaluate how choices of these parameters can affect whether or not a signal is detected and the time to signal. FDA has been monitoring for the risk of GBS after influenza vaccination for every influenza season since 2008.

METHODS

Using Medicare administrative data and the Updating Sequential Probability Ratio Test methodology to account for claims delay, we evaluated a number of different alpha-spending plans by varying several parameters.

RESULTS

For relative risks of 5 or greater, almost all alpha-spending plans have 100% power; however, for relative risks of 1.5 or lower, the constant and O'Brien-Fleming plans have increasingly more power. For RRs of 1.5 and greater, the Pocock plan signals earliest but would not signal at a RR of 1.25, as observed in prior influenza seasons. There were no remarkable differences across the different plans in regards to monitoring start dates defined by the number of vaccinations; reducing the number of interim tests improves performance only marginally.

CONCLUSIONS

A constant alpha-spending plan appears to be robust, in terms of power and time to detect a signal, across a range of these parameters, including alternate monitoring start dates based on either cumulative vaccinations or GBS claims observed, frequency of monitoring, hypothetical relative risks, and vaccine uptake patterns.

Safety review of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, acellular pertussis vaccines (Tdap) in adults aged ≥65 years, Vaccine Adverse Event reporting System (VAERS), United States, September 2010-December 2018

INTRODUCTION

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommends vaccination with tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) in persons ≥65 years of age. To date, few studies have assessed the safety of Tdap in this population. We aimed to summarize reports submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) following receipt of Tdap in this age group.

METHODS

We searched for and analyzed U.S. VAERS reports of Tdap among individuals ≥65 years of age submitted from September 1, 2010 through December 31, 2018. We classified reports according to concurrent vaccination, seriousness, and outcome (death, non-death) and determined the frequency of reported adverse events (AEs). For serious reports, we reviewed available medical records. Data mining analyses were undertaken to detect disproportionality in reporting.

RESULTS

VAERS received a total of 1,798 reports following Tdap, of which 104 (6%) were serious. The most common AEs were injection site erythema (26%; n = 468), injection site pain (19%; n = 335), injection site swelling (18%; n = 329), and erythema (18%; n = 321). We identified seven deaths; none were attributed to Tdap. Among serious non-death reports, nervous system disorders (35.1%; n = 34) and infections and infestations (n = 18.6%; n = 18) were most commonly reported. Data mining did not identify any vaccine-AE combination reported more frequently than expected.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not identify any new safety concern over nearly a decade of recommended Tdap use among adults ≥65 years of age. Findings from this post-marketing review are consistent with prior post-marketing observations and pre-licensure studies.

Influenza Vaccination and Guillain-Barré Syndrome: Reality or Fear

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an inflammatory disorder and an acute immune-mediated demyelinating neuropathy that causes reduced signal transmissions, progressive muscle weakness, and paralysis. The etiology of the syndrome still remains controversial and uncertain. GBS can be initiated and triggered by respiratory tract infections such as influenza, and intestinal infections such as Campylobacter jejuni. In addition, there is considerable evidence suggesting links between influenza vaccination and GBS. As reported previously, the incidence of GBS in individuals receiving swine flu vaccine was about one to two cases per million. Despite the influenza vaccine efficacy, its association with an immune-mediated demyelinating process can be challenging as millions of people get vaccinated every year. In this review we will discuss the association between influenza infection and vaccination with GBS by focusing on the possible immunopathological mechanisms.

Surveillance for Guillain-Barré syndrome after 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 influenza vaccination of Medicare beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a serious acute demyelinating disease, an increased risk of which was found after the 1976 swine flu vaccinations. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in collaboration with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, has been conducting active surveillance for GBS after influenza vaccinations of Medicare Fee-For-Service beneficiaries since 2009.

METHODS

We conducted active surveillance for GBS claims in the 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 influenza seasons using the Updating Sequential Probability Ratio Test (USPRT) to monitor for signals of GBS risk. We performed self-controlled risk interval (SCRI) analyses at the end of both seasons, including chart confirmation in the 2015-2016 season, to estimate the odds ratio of GBS risk. We used 1-42 and 8-21 days post-vaccination as primary and secondary risk windows, respectively, and 43-84 days post-vaccination as the control window.

RESULTS

Over 13 million beneficiaries were vaccinated in each season. USPRT found a low magnitude signal for GBS in both seasons. SCRI analyses did not find excess GBS risk following any influenza vaccine for days 1-42 post-vaccination in either season. In the 2015-2016 season, for the 8-21 day window, our chart-confirmation showed an attributable GBS risk of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.16, 1.49) and 1.68 (95% CI: 0.69, 2.41) cases per million vaccinees after all seasonal and high dose (HD) vaccines, respectively, an elevated GBS risk for beneficiaries aged ≥75 years following all seasonal vaccines (OR: 2.25; 95% CI: 1.15, 4.39) and HD vaccine (OR: 3.67, 95% CI: 1.52, 8.85), and an elevated GBS risk for males who received seasonal vaccines (OR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.15, 4.15) and HD vaccine (OR: 3.33; 95% CI: 1.35, 8.20). The finding of elevated GBS risk with advancing age and in males is consistent with literature; however, a distinction between HD and SD was a new finding. In the 2016-17 season, for the 8-21 day window, attributed cases showed an attributable GBS risk of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.03, 1.61) and 1.11 (95% CI: 0.00, 2.01) cases per million vaccinees after all seasonal and HD vaccines, respectively. We found no excess GBS risk for standard dose vaccines in the 8-21 day window in either season.

CONCLUSIONS

Our primary analysis finding of no excess GBS risk during both seasons was reassuring. The slightly elevated GBS risk, although in the expected range, in the 8-21 day window after all seasonal and high dose vaccines, but not after standard dose vaccines is hypothesis-generating because the difference may be due to vaccine factors such as antigen amount or strains in various seasons or due to host factors.

A simulation study of the statistical power and signaling characteristics of an early season sequential test for influenza vaccine safety

PURPOSE

The US Food and Drug Administration monitors the risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following influenza vaccination using several data sources including Medicare. In the 2017 to 2018 season, we transitioned our near real-time surveillance in Medicare to more effectively detect large GBS risk increases early in the season while avoiding false positives.

METHODS

We conducted a simulation study examining the ability of the updating sequential probability ratio test (USPRT) to detect substantially elevated GBS risk in the 8- to 21-day postvaccination versus 5× to 30× the historical rate. We varied the first testing week (weeks 5-8) and the null rate (1×-3×) and evaluated power. We estimated signal probability and the risk ratio (RR) after signaling when high-risk seasons were rare.

RESULTS

Applying fixed alternatives, we found >80% power to detect a risk 30× the historical rate in week 5 for the 1× null and in week 6 for the 1.5× to 3× nulls. Nearly all testing schedules had >80% power for a 5× risk by week 11. To test the robustness of USPRT, we further simulated seasons where 1% were true high-risk seasons. Using a 1× null led to 10% of seasons signaling by week 11 (median RR approximately 1.4), which decreased to approximately 1% with the ≥2.5× null (median RR approximately 16.0).

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of the results from this simulation and subsequent consultations with experts and stakeholders, we specified USPRT to test continuously from weeks 7 to 11 using the null hypothesis that the observed GBS rate was 2.5× the historical rate. This helped improve the ability of USPRT to provide early detection of GBS risk following influenza vaccination as part of a multilayered system of surveillance.

Surveillance for Guillain-Barré syndrome after influenza vaccination among U.S. Medicare beneficiaries during the 2017-2018 season

BACKGROUND

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services have been actively monitoring the risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following influenza vaccination among Fee-for-Service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries every season since 2008. We present our evaluation of the GBS risk following influenza vaccinations during the 2017-2018 season.

METHODS

We implemented a multilayered approach to active safety surveillance that included near real-time surveillance early in the season, comparing GBS rates post-vaccination during the 2017-2018 season with rates from five prior seasons using the Updating Sequential Probability Ratio Test (USPRT), and end-of-season self-controlled risk interval (SCRI) analyses.

RESULTS

We identified approximately 16 million influenza vaccinations. The near real-time surveillance did not signal for a potential 2.5-fold increased GBS risk either in days 8-21 or 1-42 post-influenza vaccination. In the SCRI analyses, we did not detect statistically significant increased GBS risks among influenza-vaccinated Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years for either the 8-21 or 1-42-day risk windows for all seasonal vaccines combined, high-dose vaccine, or standard-dose vaccines; we did detect an increased GBS risk in days 8-21 post-vaccination for individuals vaccinated with the adjuvanted vaccine (OR: 3.75; 95% CI: 1.01, 13.96), although this finding was not statistically significant after multiplicity adjustment (p = 0.146).

CONCLUSIONS

Our multilayered surveillance approach-which allows for early detection of elevated GBS risk and provides reliable end-of-season SCRI estimates of effect size-did not identify an increased GBS risk following 2017-2018 influenza vaccinations. The slightly increased GBS risk with the adjuvanted vaccine, which was not statistically significant following multiplicity adjustment, is consistent with the package inserts of all U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines, which warn of a potential low increased GBS risk. The benefits of influenza vaccines in preventing morbidity and mortality heavily outweigh this potential risk.

Post-licensure surveillance of trivalent adjuvanted influenza vaccine (aIIV3; Fluad), Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), United States, July 2016-June 2018

BACKGROUND

Trivalent adjuvanted influenza vaccine (aIIV3; Fluad®) was approved in the United States (U.S.) in 2015 for adults aged ≥65 years and has been in use since the 2016-17 influenza season.

METHODS

We analyzed U.S. reports for aIIV3 submitted from July 1, 2016 through June 30, 2018 to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a national spontaneous reporting system. Medical records were reviewed for serious reports. Among individuals ≥65 years of age, the relative frequency of the most commonly reported adverse events (AEs) after aIIV3 were compared with non-adjuvanted inactivated influenza vaccines given to adults aged ≥65 years, high-dose trivalent influenza vaccine (IIV3-HD) and trivalent or quadrivalent vaccines (IIV3/IIV4). Data mining analyses were undertaken to identify whether AEs for aIIV3 occurred disproportionately more than expected compared to all influenza vaccines.

RESULTS

VAERS received 630 reports after aIIV3, of which 521 (83%) were in adults aged ≥65 years; 79 (13%) in persons <65 years and in 30 (5%) reports age was missing; 19 (3%) reports were serious, including two deaths (0.4%) related to myocardial infarction and Sjogren's syndrome. The most common AEs reported in adults aged ≥65 years were injection site pain (21%) and erythema (18%), with similar proportions reported for IIV3-HD (17% and 19%, respectively) and for IIV3/IIV4 (15%, each). Except for reports related to vaccination of inappropriate age (n = 79) and syringe malfunction (n = 6), data mining did not identify other disproportionately reported AEs.

CONCLUSIONS

Although our review of aIIV3 in VAERS did not identify any unexpected health conditions of concern, we observed more than twice the expected number of reports with administration of the vaccine to persons outside of the age range for which the vaccine is approved in the U.S. Health care providers should be educated on the age groups for whom aIIV3 is recommended.

The safety of influenza vaccines in children: An Institute for Vaccine Safety white paper

Most influenza vaccines are generally safe, but influenza vaccines can cause rare serious adverse events. Some adverse events, such as fever and febrile seizures, are more common in children than adults. There can be differences in the safety of vaccines in different populations due to underlying differences in genetic predisposition to the adverse event. Live attenuated vaccines have not been studied adequately in children under 2 years of age to determine the risks of adverse events; more studies are needed to address this and several other priority safety issues with all influenza vaccines in children. All vaccines intended for use in children require safety testing in the target age group, especially in young children. Safety of one influenza vaccine in children should not be extrapolated to assumed safety of all influenza vaccines in children. The low rates of adverse events from influenza vaccines should not be a deterrent to the use of influenza vaccines because of the overwhelming evidence of the burden of disease due to influenza in children.

T cell epitope redundancy: cross-conservation of the TCR face between pathogens and self and its implications for vaccines and autoimmunity

T cells are extensively trained on 'self' in the thymus and then move to the periphery, where they seek out and destroy infections and regulate immune response to self-antigens. T cell receptors (TCRs) on T cells' surface recognize T cell epitopes, short linear strings of amino acids presented by antigen-presenting cells. Some of these epitopes activate T effectors, while others activate regulatory T cells. It was recently discovered that T cell epitopes that are highly conserved on their TCR face with human genome sequences are often associated with T cells that regulate immune response. These TCR-cross-conserved or 'redundant epitopes' are more common in proteins found in pathogens that have co-evolved with humans than in other non-commensal pathogens. Epitope redundancy might be the link between pathogens and autoimmune disease. This article reviews recently published data and addresses epitope redundancy, the "elephant in the room" for vaccine developers and T cell immunologists.

Relationship between Guillain-Barré syndrome, influenza-related hospitalizations, and influenza vaccine coverage

Some studies reported an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) within six weeks of influenza vaccination. It has also been suggested that this finding could have been confounded by influenza illnesses. We explored the complex relationship between influenza illness, influenza vaccination, and GBS, from an ecologic perspective using nationally representative data. We also studied seasonal patterns for GBS hospitalizations. Monthly hospitalization data (2000-2009) for GBS, and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample were included. Seasonal influenza vaccination coverage for 2004-2005 through the 2008-2009 influenza seasons (August-May) was estimated from the National Health Interview Survey data. GBS seasonality was determined using Poisson regression. GBS and P&I temporal clusters were identified using scan statistics. The association between P&I and GBS hospitalizations in the same month (concurrent) or in the following month (lagged) were determined using negative binomial regression. Vaccine coverage increased over the years (from 19.7% during 2004-2005 to 35.5% during 2008-2009 season) but GBS hospitalization did not follow a similar pattern. Overall, a significant correlation between monthly P&I and GBS hospitalizations was observed (Spearman's correlation coefficient=0.7016, p<0.0001). A significant (p=0.001) cluster of P&I hospitalizations during December 2004-March 2005 overlapped a significant (p=0.001) cluster of GBS hospitalizations during January 2005-February 2005. After accounting for effects of monthly vaccine coverage and age, P&I hospitalization was significantly associated (p<0.0001) with GBS hospitalization in the concurrent month but not with GBS hospitalization in the following month. Monthly vaccine coverage was not associated with GBS hospitalization in adjusted models (both concurrent and lagged). GBS hospitalizations demonstrated a seasonal pattern with winter months having higher rates compared to the month of June. P&I hospitalization rates were significantly correlated with hospitalization rates for GBS. Vaccine coverage did not significantly affect the rates of GBS hospitalization at the population level.

Comparative effectiveness of high-dose versus standard-dose influenza vaccines in US residents aged 65 years and older from 2012 to 2013 using Medicare data: a retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

A high-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was licensed in 2009 by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on the basis of serological criteria. We sought to establish whether high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine was more effective for prevention of influenza-related visits and hospital admissions in US Medicare beneficiaries than was standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we identified Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older who received high-dose or standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccines from community pharmacies that offered both vaccines during the 2012-13 influenza season. Outcomes were defined with billing codes on Medicare claims. The primary outcome was probable influenza infection, defined by receipt of a rapid influenza test followed by dispensing of the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir. The secondary outcome was a hospital or emergency department visit, listing a Medicare billing code for influenza. We estimated relative vaccine effectiveness by comparing outcome rates in Medicare beneficiaries during periods of high influenza circulation. Univariate and multivariate Poisson regression models were used for analyses.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 1, 2012 and Jan 31, 2013, we studied 929,730 recipients of high-dose vaccine and 1,615,545 recipients of standard-dose vaccine. Participants enrolled in each cohort were well balanced with respect to age and presence of underlying medical disorders. The high-dose vaccine (1·30 outcomes per 10,000 person-weeks) was 22% (95% CI 15-29) more effective than the standard-dose vaccine (1·01 outcomes per 10,000 person-weeks) for prevention of probable influenza infections (rapid influenza test followed by oseltamivir treatment) and 22% (95% CI 16-27%) more effective for prevention of influenza hospital admissions (0·86 outcomes per 10,000 person-weeks in the high-dose cohort vs 1·10 outcomes per 10,000 person-weeks in the standard-dose cohort).

INTERPRETATION

Our retrospective cohort study in US Medicare beneficiaries shows that, in people 65 years of age and older, high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine was significantly more effective than standard-dose vaccine in prevention of influenza-related medical encounters. Additionally, the large population in our study enabled us to show, for the first time, a significant reduction in influenza-related hospital admissions in high-dose compared to standard-dose vaccine recipients, an outcome not shown in randomised studies. These results provide important new information to be considered by policy makers recommending influenza vaccinations for elderly people.

FUNDING

FDA and the office of the Assistant Secretary of Planning and Evaluation.

The incidence and triggers of adult-onset Guillain-Barré syndrome in southwestern Finland 2004-2013

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

A Swiss study recently reported surgery as a potential risk factor for developing Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). It was sought to establish this in the Finnish adult population.

METHODS

Persons over 16 years of age who received a diagnosis of GBS in 2004-2013 were identified from the patient register of Turku University Hospital and their patient records were analyzed to identify possible triggers.

RESULTS

A cohort of 69 adult patients with GBS (63.8% men) was identified giving an annual incidence of 1.82/100,000. Of these, four (5.8%) had experienced a surgical procedure during the preceding 6 weeks with a relative risk of 6.28 (95% confidence interval 4.15-9.47, P < 0.001) compared with the general study population or a risk of 1.25/100,000 operations. No difference between genders was found. Only two (2.9%) patients had received a vaccination [one against seasonal influenza (P = 0.888) and one against pandemic influenza (Pandemrix(®), GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Rixensart, Belgium, relative risk 2.85, 95% confidence interval 1.27-6.38, P = 0.011)] during the preceding 6 weeks. The most common GBS triggers identified were respiratory tract infections in 30 cases (43.5%) and gastroenteritis in 16 cases (23.2%) whilst two patients (2.9%) had had both.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall incidence of GBS in the adult population of southwestern Finland was similar to previous studies worldwide and the most common triggers were respiratory tract infections and gastroenteritis. Surgery was a rare risk factor and of vaccinations only the one against pandemic influenza raised the risk of GBS.

Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks. Contribution of the IMIA Primary Healthcare Working Group

BACKGROUND

Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive.

OBJECTIVE

To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines.

METHOD

We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars.

RESULTS

We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowdsourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the "internet of things", and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance.

Risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome following pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 vaccination in Germany

Purpose

A prospective, epidemiologic study was conducted to assess whether the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) vaccination in Germany almost exclusively using an AS03-adjuvanted vaccine (Pandemrix) impacts the risk of Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS) and its variant Fisher syndrome (FS).

Methods

Potential cases of GBS/FS were reported by 351 participating hospitals throughout Germany. The self-controlled case series methodology was applied to all GBS/FS cases fulfilling the Brighton Collaboration (BC) case definition (levels 1–3 of diagnostic certainty) with symptom onset between 1 November 2009 and 30 September 2010 reported until end of December 2010.

Results

Out of 676 GBS/FS reports, in 30 cases, GBS/FS (BC levels 1–3) occurred within 150 days following influenza A(H1N1) vaccination. The relative incidence of GBS/FS within the primary risk period (days 5–42 post-vaccination) compared with the control period (days 43–150 post-vaccination) was 4.65 (95%CI [2.17, 9.98]). Similar results were found when stratifying for infections within 3 weeks prior to onset of GBS/FS and when excluding cases with additional seasonal influenza vaccination. The overall result of temporally adjusted analyses supported the primary finding of an increased relative incidence of GBS/FS following influenza A(H1N1) vaccination.

Conclusions

The results indicate an increased risk of GBS/FS in temporal association with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) vaccination in Germany. © 2014 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Guillain-Barre syndrome following quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination among vaccine-eligible individuals in the United States

Post-marketing surveillance studies provide conflicting evidence about whether Guillain-Barre syndrome occurs more frequently following quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV4) vaccination. We aimed to assess whether Guillain-Barre syndrome is reported more frequently following HPV4 vaccination than other vaccinations among females and males aged 9 to 26 y in the United States. We used adverse event reports received by the United States Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2012 to estimate overall, age-, and sex-specific proportional reporting ratios (PRRs) and corresponding Χ2 values for reports of Guillain-Barre syndrome between 5 and 42 d following HPV vaccination. Minimum criteria for a signal using this approach are 3 or more cases, PRR≥2, and Χ2≥4. Guillain-Barre syndrome was listed as an adverse event in 45 of 14,822 reports, of which 9 reports followed HPV4 vaccination and 36 reports followed all other vaccines. The overall, age-, and sex-specific PRR estimates were uniformly below 1. In addition, the overall, age-, and sex-specific Χ2 values were uniformly below 3. Our analysis of post-marketing surveillance data does not suggest that Guillain-Barre syndrome is reported more frequently following HPV4 vaccination than other vaccinations among vaccine-eligible females or males in the United States. Our findings may be useful when discussing the risks and benefits of HPV4 vaccination.

Association between Guillain-Barré syndrome and influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent inactivated vaccines in the USA: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccination programme was the largest mass vaccination initiative in recent US history. Commensurate with the size and scope of the vaccination programme, a project to monitor vaccine adverse events was undertaken, the most comprehensive safety surveillance agenda in the USA to date. The adverse event monitoring project identified an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after vaccination; however, some individual variability in results was noted. Guillain-Barré syndrome is a rare but serious health disorder in which a person's own immune system damages their nerve cells, causing muscle weakness, sometimes paralysis, and infrequently death. We did a meta-analysis of data from the adverse event monitoring project to ascertain whether influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent inactivated vaccines used in the USA increased the risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome.

METHODS

Data were obtained from six adverse event monitoring systems. About 23 million vaccinated people were included in the analysis. The primary analysis entailed calculation of incidence rate ratios and attributable risks of excess cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome per million vaccinations. We used a self-controlled risk-interval design.

FINDINGS

Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent inactivated vaccines were associated with a small increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (incidence rate ratio 2·35, 95% CI 1·42-4·01, p=0·0003). This finding translated to about 1·6 excess cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome per million people vaccinated.

INTERPRETATION

The modest risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome attributed to vaccination is consistent with previous estimates of the disorder after seasonal influenza vaccination. A risk of this small magnitude would be difficult to capture during routine seasonal influenza vaccine programmes, which have extensive, but comparatively less, safety monitoring. In view of the morbidity and mortality caused by 2009 H1N1 influenza and the effectiveness of the vaccine, clinicians, policy makers, and those eligible for vaccination should be assured that the benefits of inactivated pandemic vaccines greatly outweigh the risks.

FUNDING

US Federal Government.