Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

Pre-exposure and postexposure prophylaxis access in rural versus urban pharmacies in Georgia and Pennsylvania

BACKGROUND

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) prevent HIV among individuals at high risk for acquisition. Pre-existing structural barriers to PrEP/PEP access among rural patients may be exacerbated further if pharmacies do not keep PrEP/PEP in stock, constituting a significant barrier to mitigating the HIV epidemic.

OBJECTIVES

To compare PrEP/PEP availability for same-day pickup in rural vs urban Georgia and Pennsylvania pharmacies.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional simulated patient caller study, calling pharmacists in Georgia and Pennsylvania to see whether PrEP/PEP was available for same-day pickup. We identified retail pharmacies through state pharmacy boards and categorized rurality using state-based definitions. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess PrEP availability by rurality and Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) designation, accounting for chain pharmacy status and county-level racial composition.

RESULTS

Among 481 pharmacies contacted (304 in Pennsylvania and 177 in Georgia), only 30.77% had PrEP for same-day pickup and only 10.55% had PEP for same-day pickup. PrEP availability did not differ significantly by state. Urban pharmacies had 2.02 (95% CI: 1.32-3.09) greater odds of PrEP same-day availability compared to rural pharmacies. Pharmacies in EHE counties had 3.45 (95% CI: 1.9-6.23) times higher odds of carrying PrEP compared to non-EHE counties.

CONCLUSIONS

Pharmacies were unlikely to carry PrEP or PEP. Pharmacies in rural compared to urban, and non-EHE compared to EHE locations were less likely to carry PrEP. Addressing pharmacy barriers to PrEP/PEP may enhance access to HIV prevention for those living at high risk of HIV.

The Testing Imperative: Why the US Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic Program Needs to Renew Efforts to Expand HIV Testing in Clinical and Community-Based Settings

Data from several modeling studies demonstrate that large-scale increases in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing across settings with a high burden of HIV may produce the largest incidence reductions to support the US Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative's goal of reducing new HIV infections 90% by 2030. Despite US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendations for routine HIV screening within clinical settings and at least yearly screening for individuals most at risk of acquiring HIV, fewer than half of US adults report ever receiving an HIV test. Furthermore, total domestic funding for HIV prevention has remained unchanged between 2013 and 2019. The authors describe the evidence supporting the value of expanded HIV testing, identify challenges in implementation, and present recommendations to address these barriers through approaches at local and federal levels to reach EHE targets.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning.

METHODS

We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results.

RESULTS

We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

Evaluating the sensitivity of jurisdictional heterogeneity and jurisdictional mixing in national level HIV prevention analyses: context of the U.S. ending the HIV epidemic plan

BACKGROUND

The U.S. Ending the HIV epidemic (EHE) plan aims to reduce annual HIV incidence by 90% by 2030, by first focusing interventions on 57 regions (EHE jurisdictions) that contributed to more than 50% of annual HIV diagnoses. Mathematical models that project HIV incidence evaluate the impact of interventions and inform intervention decisions. However, current models are either national level, which do not consider jurisdictional heterogeneity, or independent jurisdiction-specific, which do not consider cross jurisdictional interactions. Data suggests that a significant proportion of persons have sexual partnerships outside their own jurisdiction. However, the sensitivity of these jurisdictional interactions on model outcomes and intervention decisions hasn't been studied.

METHODS

We developed an ordinary differential equations based compartmental model to generate national-level projections of HIV in the U.S., through dynamic simulations of 96 epidemiological sub-models representing 54 EHE and 42 non-EHE jurisdictions. A Bernoulli equation modeled HIV-transmissions using a mixing matrix to simulate sexual partnerships within and outside jurisdictions. To evaluate sensitivity of jurisdictional interactions on model outputs, we analyzed 16 scenarios, combinations of a) proportion of sexual partnerships mixing outside jurisdiction: no-mixing, low-level-mixing-within-state, high-level-mixing-within-state, or high-level-mixing-within-and-outside-state; b) jurisdictional heterogeneity in care and demographics: homogenous or heterogeneous; and c) intervention assumptions for 2019-2030: baseline or EHE-plan (diagnose, treat, and prevent).

RESULTS

Change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios varied by EHE and non-EHE jurisdictions and aggregation-level. When assuming jurisdictional heterogeneity and baseline-intervention, the change in aggregated incidence ranged from - 2 to 0% for EHE and 5 to 21% for non-EHE, but within each jurisdiction it ranged from - 31 to 46% for EHE and - 18 to 109% for non-EHE. Thus, incidence estimates were sensitive to jurisdictional mixing more at the jurisdictional level. As a result, jurisdiction-specific HIV-testing intervals inferred from the model to achieve the EHE-plan were also sensitive, e.g., when no-mixing scenarios suggested testing every 1 year (or 3 years), the three mixing-levels suggested testing every 0.8 to 1.2 years, 0.6 to 1.5 years, and 0.6 to 1.5 years, respectively (or 2.6 to 3.5 years, 2 to 4.8 years, and 2.2 to 4.1 years, respectively). Similar patterns were observed when assuming jurisdictional homogeneity, however, change in incidence in mixing compared to no-mixing scenarios were high even in aggregated incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Accounting jurisdictional mixing and heterogeneity could improve model-based analyses.

HIV awareness, pre-exposure prophylaxis perceptions and experiences among people who exchange sex: qualitative and community based participatory study

Background

People who exchange sex for money, favors, goods or services, combat higher risk of acquiring sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Understanding barriers to STD and HIV related healthcare from the perspective of this stigmatized and marginalized community may improve access to sexual health services including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). 

Methods

We used community-partnered participatory and qualitative methods to conduct anonymous one-on-one interviews with people who exchange sex to understand their perspectives and experiences related to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to prevent HIV acquisition. We conducted twenty-two interviews and coded them to perform thematic analysis. 

Results

We identified five themes: (1) Appreciation of HIV risk and prevention strategies grew from information accumulated over time. (2) PrEP information came from a variety of sources with mixed messages and uncertain credibility. (3) Decision-making about use of PrEP was relative to other behavioral decisions regarding exchange sex. (4) The multi-step process of obtaining PrEP presented multiple potential barriers. (5) Healthcare providers were seen as powerful facilitators to PrEP utilization.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that PrEP education and care needs to be made more relevant and accessible to individuals who exchange sex.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14235-0.

Study protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial to increase COVID-19 testing and vaccination among people who inject drugs in San Diego County

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) have low rates of COVID-19 testing and vaccination and are vulnerable to severe disease. We partnered with a local, community-based syringe service program (SSP) in San Diego County, CA, to develop the single-session theory- and evidence-informed "LinkUP" intervention to increase COVID-19 testing and vaccination. This paper details the protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the LinkUP intervention.

METHODS

With significant community input into study design considerations, including through our Community and Scientific Advisory Board, the LinkUP pilot RCT leverages an ongoing cohort study with adult (≥ 18 years) PWID in San Diego County to recruit participants who have not recently undergone voluntary COVID-19 testing and are unvaccinated. Eligible participants are referred to SSP locations randomized to offer the active intervention (involving tailored education, motivational interviewing, and problem-solving strategies) or a didactic attention-control condition (information sharing only). Both conditions are delivered by trained peer counselors hired by the SSP and were designed to be delivered at mobile (outdoor) SSP sites in ~ 30 min. Intake data assesses COVID-19 testing and vaccination history, health status, and harm reduction needs (to facilitate SSP referrals). At the end of either intervention condition, peer counselors offer onsite rapid COVID-19 antigen testing and COVID-19 vaccination referrals. Out-take and follow-up data (via SSP and state health department record linkages) confirms whether participants received the intervention, COVID-19 testing (and results) onsite or within six months, and vaccination referrals (and uptake) within six months. Planned analyses, which are not powered to assess efficacy, will provide adequate precision for effect size estimates for primary (COVID-19 testing) and secondary (vaccination) intervention outcomes. Findings will be disseminated widely including to local health authorities, collaborating agencies, and community members.

DISCUSSION

Lessons from this community-based pilot study include the importance of gathering community input into study design, cultivating research-community partnerships based on mutual respect and trust, and maintaining frequent communication regarding unexpected events (e.g., police sweeps, neighborhood opposition). Findings may support the adoption of COVID-19 testing and vaccination initiatives implemented through SSPs and other community-based organizations serving vulnerable populations of people impacted by substance use and addiction. Trial registration This trial was registered prospectively at ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier NCT05181657).

Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission by HIV Risk Group and Along the HIV Care Continuum: A Contrast of 6 US Cities

BACKGROUND

Understanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum within different HIV transmission risk groups in 6 US cities.

METHODS

We used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial behavior-specific or ethnic behavior-specific and risk behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state, and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, nonacute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year.

RESULTS

Individuals with undiagnosed nonacute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% (26.7%-44.9%) in New York City to 64.9% (47.0%-71.6%) in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in 4 of 6 cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person-years, ranging from 76.4 (58.9-135.9) in Miami to 160.2 (85.7-302.8) in Baltimore.

CONCLUSION

These findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.

What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce incident HIV infections by 90% over a span of 10 years. The intensity of interventions needed to achieve this for local epidemics is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of HIV interventions at the city level.

DESIGN

A compartmental model of city-level HIV transmission stratified by age, race, sex, and HIV risk factor was developed and calibrated.

SETTING

32 priority metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

PATIENTS

Simulated populations in each MSA.

INTERVENTION

Combinations of HIV testing and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among those at risk for HIV, plus viral suppression in persons with diagnosed HIV infection.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was the projected reduction in incident cases from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

Absent intervention, HIV incidence was projected to decrease by 19% across all 32 MSAs. Modest increases in testing (1.25-fold per year), PrEP coverage (5 percentage points), and viral suppression (10 percentage points) across the population could achieve reductions of 34% to 67% by 2030. Twenty-five percent PrEP coverage, testing twice a year on average, and 90% viral suppression among young Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM) achieved similar reductions (13% to 68%). Including all MSM and persons who inject drugs could reduce incidence by 48% to 90%. Thirteen of 32 MSAs could achieve greater than 90% reductions in HIV incidence with large-scale interventions that include heterosexuals. A web application with location-specific results is publicly available (www.jheem.org).

LIMITATION

The COVID-19 pandemic was not represented.

CONCLUSION

Large reductions in HIV incidence are achievable with substantial investment, but the EHE goals will be difficult to achieve in most locations. An interactive model that can help policymakers maximize the effect in their local environments is presented.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Attributing health benefits to preventing HIV infections versus improving health outcomes among people living with HIV: an analysis in six US cities

OBJECTIVE

Combination strategies generate health benefits through improved health outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) and prevention of new infections. We aimed to determine health benefits attributable to improved health among PLHIV versus HIV prevention for a set of combination strategies in six US cities.

DESIGN

A dynamic HIV transmission model.

METHODS

Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City (NYC) and Seattle, we assessed the health benefits of city-specific optimal combinations of evidence-based interventions implemented at publicly documented levels and at ideal (90% coverage) scale-up (2020-2030 implementation, 20-year study period). We calculated the proportion of health benefit gains (measured as quality-adjusted life-years) resulting from averted and delayed HIV infections; improved health outcomes among PLHIV; and improved health outcomes due to medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD).

RESULTS

The HIV-specific proportion of total benefits ranged from 68.3% (95% credible interval: 55.3-80.0) in Seattle to 98.5% (97.5-99.3) in Miami, with the rest attributable to MOUD. The majority of HIV-specific health benefits in five of six cities were attributable HIV prevention, and ranged from 33.1% (26.1-41.1) in NYC to 83.1% (79.6-86.6) in Atlanta. Scaling up to ideal service levels resulted in three to seven-fold increases in additional health benefits, mostly from MOUD, with HIV-specific health gains primarily driven by HIV prevention.

CONCLUSION

Optimal combination strategies generated a larger proportion of health benefits attributable to HIV prevention in five of six cities, underlining the substantial benefits of antiretroviral therapy engagement for the prevention of HIV transmission through viral suppression. Understanding to whom benefits accrue may be important in assessing the equity and impact of HIV investments.

Improving health equity and ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: a distributional cost-effectiveness analysis in six cities

BACKGROUND

In the USA, Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV. Applying a distributional cost-effectiveness framework, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and epidemiological impact of two combination implementation approaches to identify the approach that best meets the dual objectives of improving population health and reducing racial or ethnic health disparities.

METHODS

We adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to characterise HIV micro-epidemics in six US cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Seattle. We considered combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions to diagnose, treat, and prevent HIV transmission according to previously documented levels of scale-up. We then identified optimal combination strategies for each city, with the distribution of each intervention implemented according to existing service levels (proportional services approach) and the racial or ethnic distribution of new diagnoses (between Black, Hispanic or Latinx, and White or other ethnicity individuals; equity approach). We estimated total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of strategies implemented from 2020 to 2030 (health-care perspective; 20-year time horizon; 3% annual discount rate). We estimated three measures of health inequality (between-group variance, index of disparity, Theil index), incidence rate ratios, and rate differences for the selected strategies under each approach.

FINDINGS

In all cities, optimal combination strategies under the equity approach generated more QALYs than those with proportional services, ranging from a 3·1% increase (95% credible interval [CrI] 1·4-5·3) in New York to more than double (101·9% [75·4-134·6]) in Atlanta. Compared with proportional services, the equity approach delivered lower costs over 20 years in all cities except Los Angeles; cost reductions ranged from $22·9 million (95% CrI 5·3-55·7 million) in Seattle to $579·8 million (255·4-940·5 million) in Atlanta. The equity approach also reduced incidence disparities and health inequality measures in all cities except Los Angeles.

INTERPRETATION

Equity-focused HIV combination implementation strategies that reduce disparities for Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals can significantly improve population health, reduce costs, and drive progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the USA.

FUNDING

National Institute on Drug Abuse.

The Potential Epidemiological Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic and the Cost-effectiveness of Linked, Opt-out HIV Testing: A Modeling Study in 6 US Cities

Background

Widespread viral and serological testing for SARS-CoV-2 may present a unique opportunity to also test for HIV infection. We estimated the potential impact of adding linked, opt-out HIV testing alongside SARS-CoV-2 testing on HIV incidence and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in six US cities.

Methods

Using a previously-calibrated dynamic HIV transmission model, we constructed three sets of scenarios for each city: (1) sustained current levels of HIV-related treatment and prevention services (status quo); (2) temporary disruptions in health services and changes in sexual and injection risk behaviours at discrete levels between 0%-50%; and (3) linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing offered to 10%-90% of the adult population in addition to scenario (2). We estimated cumulative HIV infections between 2020-2025 and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of linked HIV testing over 20 years.

Results

In the absence of linked, opt-out HIV testing, we estimated a total of 16.5% decrease in HIV infections between 2020-2025 in the best-case scenario (50% reduction in risk behaviours and no service disruptions), and 9.0% increase in the worst-case scenario (no behavioural change and 50% reduction in service access). We estimated that HIV testing (offered at 10%-90% levels) could avert a total of 576-7,225 (1.6%-17.2%) new infections. The intervention would require an initial investment of $20.6M-$220.7M across cities; however, the intervention would ultimately result in savings in health care costs in each city.

Conclusions

A campaign in which HIV testing is linked with SARS-CoV-2 testing could substantially reduce HIV incidence and reduce direct and indirect health care costs attributable to HIV.

"Ending the Epidemic" Will Not Happen Without Addressing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in the United States Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic

We estimated human immunodeficiency virus incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for black and Hispanic vs white populations in 6 cities in the United States (2020-2030). Large reductions in incidence are possible, but without elimination of disparities in healthcare access, we found that wide disparities persisted for black compared with white populations in particular (lowest IRR, 1.69 [95% credible interval, 1.19-2.30]).

Identifying Regions of Greatest Need for Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America

BACKGROUND

In the 2019 State of the Union Address, President Trump announced a plan for "Ending the HIV Epidemic" in the United States, with a goal to reduce new HIV infections by 90% by 2030. Phase I of the plan set an intermediate goal of a 75% reduction within 5 years, focusing on select states and counties.

METHODS

We assessed the feasibility of the first phase of the plan by estimating the fraction of HIV diagnoses that occur within the targeted region, using a statistical model to predict new HIV cases in each county. We suggested new areas that should be added to the current plan, prioritizing by both a "Density Metric" of new HIV cases and a "Gap Metric" quantifying shortcomings in antiretroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake.

RESULTS

We found the current plan targets less than 60% of new diagnoses. The plan should be expanded to Puerto Rico, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and Maryland as well as parts of New York, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia, areas which were prioritized by both metrics.

CONCLUSION

Many of the highest priority areas, both by density of HIV cases and by lack of viral suppression and pre-exposure prophylaxis use, were not covered by the original plan, particularly in the South. The current plan to end the HIV epidemic must be expanded to these areas to feasibly allow for a 75% reduction in new HIV cases within 5 years.

Ending the HIV Epidemic Among Persons Who Inject Drugs: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Six US Cities

BACKGROUND

Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities.

METHODS

Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US).

RESULTS

Combinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%-13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%-73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%-75.5% at ideal scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

Added Benefits of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Use on HIV Incidence with Minimal Changes in Efficiency in the Context of High Treatment Engagement Among Men Who Have Sex with Men

Although there is ongoing debate over the need for substantial increases in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use when antiretroviral treatment confers the dual benefits of reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality and the risk of HIV transmission, no studies to date have quantified the potential added benefits of PrEP use and changes in its efficiency in the context of high treatment engagement across multiple US subpopulations. We used a previously published agent-based model to simulate HIV transmission in a dynamic network of Black/African American and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta, Georgia (2015-2024) to understand how reductions in HIV incidence attributable to varying levels of PrEP use change when United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) "90-90-90" goals for HIV treatment are achieved and maintained. Even at achievement of "90-90-90" goals, 75% PrEP coverage further reduced incidence by 67.9% and 74.2% to 1.53 [simulation interval (SI): 1.39-1.70] and 0.355 (SI: 0.316-0.391) per 100 person-years for Black/African American and White MSM, respectively, compared with the same scenario with no PrEP use. Increasing PrEP coverage from 15% to 75% under "90-90-90" goals only increased the number of person-years of PrEP use per infection averted by 8.1% and 10.5% to 26.7 (SI: 25.6-28.0) and 73.3 (SI: 70.6-75.7) among Black/African American MSM and White MSM, respectively. Even with high treatment engagement, substantial expansion of PrEP use contributes to meaningful decreases in HIV incidence among MSM with minimal changes in efficiency.

Can the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative transition the USA towards HIV/AIDS epidemic control?

: Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for six USA cities, we projected HIV incidence from 2020 to 2040 and estimated whether an established UNAIDS HIV epidemic control target could be met under ideal implementation of optimal combination strategies previously defined for each city. Four of six cities (Atlanta, Baltimore, New York City and Seattle) were projected to achieve epidemic control by 2040 and we identified differences in reaching epidemic control across racial/ethnic groups.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the State of Texas of the United States: Past Reflections, Present Shortcomings, and Future Needs of the Public Health Response

A strategy titled “Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America” aims to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence in the United States by at least 90% by 2030, using diagnosis, treatment, and prevention strategies. Texas is a Southern state that has one of the highest numbers of new HIV diagnoses and people with HIV in the country, and where HIV disproportionately impacts minorities. We retrace the historical epidemic in its largest city, Houston, to illustrate the lessons learned and milestones accomplished, which could serve as guideposts for the future. We examine the current epidemic in Texas, including the achieved levels of HIV testing, treatment continua, and pre-exposure prophylaxis prescription, and compare and contrast these with the national estimates and Plan targets. Our findings call for urgent and accelerated expansion of efforts to end HIV in Texas.

Simulating the End of AIDS in New York: Using Participatory Dynamic Modeling to Improve Implementation of the Ending the Epidemic Initiative

OBJECTIVES

In 2014, the governor of New York announced the Ending the Epidemic (ETE) plan to reduce annual new HIV infections from 3000 to 750, achieve a first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence, and reduce AIDS progression by the end of 2020. The state health department undertook participatory simulation modeling to develop a baseline for comparing epidemic trends and feedback on ETE strategies.

METHODS

A dynamic compartmental model projected the individual and combined effects of 3 ETE initiatives: enhanced linkage to and retention in HIV treatment, increased preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men, and expanded housing assistance. Data inputs for model calibration and low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios (stakeholders' rollout predictions, and lower and upper bounds) came from surveillance and program data through 2014, the literature, and expert judgment.

RESULTS

Without ETE (baseline scenario), new HIV infections would decline but remain >750, and HIV prevalence would continue to increase by 2020. Concurrently implementing the 3 programs would lower annual new HIV infections by 16.0%, 28.1%, and 45.7% compared with baseline in the low-, medium-, and high-implementation scenarios, respectively. In all concurrent implementation scenarios, although annual new HIV infections would remain >750, there would be fewer new HIV infections than deaths, yielding the first-ever decrease in HIV prevalence. PrEP and enhanced linkage and retention would confer the largest population-level changes.

CONCLUSIONS

New York State will achieve 1 ETE benchmark under the most realistic (medium) implementation scenario. Findings facilitated framing of ETE goals and underscored the need to prioritize men who have sex with men and maintain ETE's multipronged approach, including other programs not modeled here.

Exploring Changes in Racial/Ethnic Disparities of HIV Diagnosis Rates Under the "Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America" Initiative

OBJECTIVES

Racial/ethnic disparities in HIV diagnosis rates remain despite the availability of effective treatment and prevention tools in the United States. In 2019, President Trump announced the "Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America" (EHE) initiative to reduce new HIV infections in the United States at least 75% by 2025 and at least 90% by 2030. The objective of this study was to show the potential effect of the EHE initiative on racial/ethnic disparities in HIV diagnosis rates at the national level.

METHODS

We used 2017 HIV diagnoses data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National HIV Surveillance System. We developed a counterfactual scenario to determine changes in racial/ethnic disparities if the 2017 HIV diagnosis rates were reduced by 75% in the geographic regions targeted by the EHE initiative. We used 4 measures to calculate results: rate ratio, population-attributable proportion (PAP), Gini coefficient, and Index of Disparity.

RESULTS

The relative measures of racial/ethnic disparity decreased by 9%-21% in the EHE scenario compared with the 2017 HIV diagnoses data. The largest decrease was in the Hispanic/Latino:white rate ratio (-20.6%) and in the black:white rate ratio (-18.2%). The PAP measure decreased by 11.5%. The absolute versions of the Index of Disparity (unweighted and weighted) were approximately 50% lower in the EHE scenario than in the 2017 HIV diagnoses data.

CONCLUSIONS

EHE efforts could reduce but will not eliminate racial/ethnic disparities in HIV diagnosis rates. Efforts to address racial/ethnic disparities should continue, and innovative approaches, specifically those that focus on social and structural factors, should be developed and implemented for populations that are disproportionately affected by HIV in the United States.

Ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: an economic modelling study in six cities

BACKGROUND

The HIV epidemic in the USA is a collection of diverse local microepidemics. We aimed to identify optimal combination implementation strategies of evidence-based interventions to reach 90% reduction of incidence in 10 years, in six US cities that comprise 24·1% of people living with HIV in the USA.

METHODS

In this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated with the best available evidence on epidemiological and structural conditions for six US cities: Atlanta (GA), Baltimore (MD), Los Angeles (CA), Miami (FL), New York City (NY), and Seattle (WA). We assessed 23 040 combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions (ie, HIV prevention, testing, treatment, engagement, and re-engagement) to identify combination strategies providing the greatest health benefit while remaining cost-effective. Main outcomes included averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost (in 2018 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; from the health-care sector perspective, 3% annual discount rate). Interventions were implemented at previously documented and ideal (90% coverage or adoption) scale-up, and sustained from 2020 to 2030, with outcomes evaluated until 2040.

FINDINGS

Optimal combination strategies providing health benefit and cost-effectiveness contained between nine (Seattle) and 13 (Miami) individual interventions. If implemented at previously documented scale-up, these strategies could reduce incidence by between 30·7% (95% credible interval 19·1-43·7; Seattle) and 50·1% (41·5-58·0; New York City) by 2030, at ICERs ranging from cost-saving in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, to $95 416 per QALY in Seattle. Incidence reductions reached between 39·5% (26·3-53·8) in Seattle and 83·6% (70·8-87·0) in Baltimore at ideal implementation. Total costs of implementing strategies across the cities at previously documented scale-up reached $559 million per year in 2024; however, costs were offset by long-term reductions in new infections and delayed disease progression, with Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami projecting cost savings over the 20 year study period.

INTERPRETATION

Evidence-based interventions can deliver substantial public health and economic value; however, complementary strategies to overcome social and structural barriers to HIV care will be required to reach national targets of the ending the HIV epidemic initiative by 2030.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

The impact of localized implementation: determining the cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention and care interventions across six United States cities

OBJECTIVE

Effective interventions to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS can vary in their ability to deliver value at different levels of scale and in different epidemiological contexts. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment and prevention interventions implemented at previously documented scales of delivery in six US cities with diverse HIV microepidemics.

DESIGN

Dynamic HIV transmission model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

METHODS

We identified and estimated previously documented scale of delivery and costs for 16 evidence-based interventions from the US CDC's Compendium of Evidence-Based Interventions and Best Practices for HIV Prevention. Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City and Seattle, we estimated averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (healthcare perspective; 3% discount rate, 2018$US), for each intervention and city (10-year implementation) compared with the status quo over a 20-year time horizon.

RESULTS

Increased HIV testing was cost-saving or cost-effective across cities. Targeted preexposure prophylaxis for high-risk MSM was cost-saving in Miami and cost-effective in Atlanta ($6123/QALY), Baltimore ($18 333/QALY) and Los Angeles ($86 117/QALY). Interventions designed to improve antiretroviral therapy initiation provided greater value than other treatment engagement interventions. No single intervention was projected to reduce HIV incidence by more than 10.1% in any city.

CONCLUSION

Combination implementation strategies should be tailored to local epidemiological contexts to provide the most value. Complementary strategies addressing factors hindering access to HIV care will be necessary to meet targets for HIV elimination in the United States.