The Utilization of Protamine during Peripheral Vascular Interventions in the VQI

BACKGROUND

Protamine administration was shown to reduce bleeding after carotid surgery but the role of protamine during peripheral vascular interventions (PVIs) remains unknown. This study evaluates the trend and outcomes of protamine use in the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI). Our hypothesis is that the use of protamine is associated with decreased bleeding after PVI.

METHODS

Patients undergoing elective PVI in the VQI (2016-2020) for peripheral arterial disease were reviewed and the utilization trend for protamine was described. The characteristics of patients undergoing PVI with and without protamine use were compared. After propensity score matching based on the patient's comorbidities, access site, and procedural characteristics, the perioperative outcomes of both groups were compared using multivariable Poisson regression to estimate adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

RESULTS

The total number of patients was 131,618 and patients who received protamine constituted 29.8% of the sample (N = 38,191). After propensity matching, the total number of patients was 94,582, and patients who received protamine constituted 28.8% of the sample (N = 27,275). Protamine use significantly increased during the study period from 5.2 to 22.9%. Before propensity score matching, patients who received protamine were more likely to be white (79% vs. 76.8, P ≤ 0.001), smokers (80.5% vs. 78.5%, P ≤ 0.001), with medical comorbidities including hypertension (88.9% vs. 88.5%, P = 0.074), congestive heart failure (20.5% vs. 19.8%, P = 0.006), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (28.2% vs. 26.5%). They were also more likely to be on perioperative medications such as P2Y12 inhibitors (44.3% vs. 45, P = 0.013%) and statin (77.4% vs. 76.5%, P = 0.001) compared to patients who did not receive protamine. After propensity matching, there were no significant differences between the 2 groups. There was a significant decrease in bleeding during procedures where protamine was administered compared to no protamine (2.0% vs. 2.2%) (aRR, 0.89 [95% CI 0.80, 0.98]). Protamine was more likely to be given in procedures complicated by perforation (0.8% vs. 0.5%) (aRR, 1.48 [95% CI 1.24, 1.76]) and less likely to be given during procedures with distal embolization (0.4% vs. 0.7%) (aRR, 0.59 [95% CI 0.49, 0.73]). However, patients receiving protamine had significantly higher cardiac complications (1.4% vs. 1.1%) (aRR, 1.27 [95% CI 1.12, 1.43]). There was no significant difference in mortality between the 2 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Protamine use is associated with decreased perioperative bleeding but increased cardiac complications. Protamine should be selectively administered to patients at high risk of bleeding during PVI.

Age-associated dementia among older people aging with HIV in the US: a modeling study

OBJECTIVE

Almost 400 000 people with HIV (PWH) in the United States are over age 55 years and at risk for age-associated dementias (AAD), including Alzheimer's disease and vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia (VCID). We projected the cumulative incidence and mortality associated with AAD among PWH at least 60 years in the United States compared with the general population.

DESIGN/METHODS

Integrating the CEPAC and AgeD-Pol models, we simulated two cohorts of male and female individuals at least 60 years old: PWH, and general US population. We estimated AAD incidence and AAD-associated mortality rates. Projected outcomes included AAD cumulative incidence, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We performed sensitivity and scenario analyses on AAD-specific (e.g. incidence) and HIV-specific (e.g. disengagement from HIV care) parameters, as well as premature aging among PWH.

RESULTS

We projected that 22.1%/16.3% of 60-year-old male individuals/female individuals with HIV would develop AAD by 80 years compared with 15.9%/13.3% of male individuals/female individuals in the general population. Accounting for age-associated and dementia-associated quality of life, 60-year-old PWH would have a lower life expectancy (QALYs): 17.4 years (14.1 QALYs) and 16.8 years (13.4 QALYs) for male and female individuals, respectively, compared with the general population [men, 21.7 years (18.4 QALYs); women, 24.7 years (20.2 QALYs)]. AAD cumulative incidence was most sensitive to non-HIV-related mortality, engagement in HIV care, and AAD incidence rates.

CONCLUSION

Projected estimates of AAD-associated morbidity, mortality, and quality of life can inform decision-makers and health systems planning as the population of PWH ages. Improved AAD prevention, treatment, and supportive care planning are critical for people aging with HIV.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Linkage to HIV Care Interventions in the United States, Canada, and Ukraine (2010-2021)

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of interventions targeting linkage to HIV care in the US, Canada, and Europe. We searched six databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL). Inclusion criteria were English language studies in adults in the US, Canada, or Europe, published January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2021. We synthesized interventions by type and linkage to care outcome. The outcome was cumulative incidence of 3-month linkage. We estimated cumulative incidence ratios of linkage with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We screened 945 studies; 13 met selection criteria (n = 1 from Canada, n = 1 from Ukraine, n = 11 from the US) and were included after full text review (total 37,549 individuals). The cumulative incidence of 3-month linkage in the intervention group was 0.82 (95% CI 0.68-0.94) and control group 0.71 (95% CI 0.50-0.90); cIR of linkage for intervention versus control was 1.30 (95% CI 1.13, 1.49). Interventions to improve linkage to care after HIV diagnosis warrant further attention.

Racial Disparities in Periprosthetic Joint Infections after Primary Total Joint Arthroplasty: A Retrospective Study

In the United States, racial disparities have been observed in complications following total joint arthroplasty (TJA), including readmissions and mortality. It is unclear whether such disparities also exist for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). The clinical data registry of a large New England hospital system was used to identify patients who underwent TJA between January 2018 and December 2021. The comorbidities were evaluated using the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI). We used Poisson regression to assess the relationship between PJI and race by estimating cumulative incidence ratios (cIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We adjusted for age and sex and examined whether ECI was a mediator using structural equation modeling. The final analytic dataset included 10,018 TJAs in 9681 individuals [mean age (SD) 69 (10)]. The majority (96.5%) of the TJAs were performed in non-Hispanic (NH) White individuals. The incidence of PJI was higher among NH Black individuals (3.1%) compared with NH White individuals (1.6%) [adjusted cIR = 2.12, 95%CI = 1.16-3.89; p = 0.015]. Comorbidities significantly mediated the association between race and PJI, accounting for 26% of the total effect of race on PJI incidence. Interventions that increase access to high-quality treatments for comorbidities before and after TJA may reduce racial disparities in PJI.

Projected Life Expectancy Gains From Improvements in HIV Care in Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men

Importance

Substantial racial inequities exist across the HIV care continuum between non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US.

Objectives

To project years of life gained (YLG) with improving the HIV care continuum among Black MSM and White MSM in the US and to determine the outcomes of achieving health equity goals.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model was used and populated with 2021 race-specific data to simulate HIV care among Black MSM and White MSM in the US who have acquired HIV. Analyses were completed from July 2021 to October 2023.

Intervention

The study simulated status quo care using race-specific estimates: age at infection, time to diagnosis, receipt of care, and virologic suppression. The study next projected the outcomes of attaining equity-centered vs non-equity-centered goals by simulating 2 equal improvements in care goals: (10-point increased receipt of care and 5-point increased virologic suppression), 3 equity-centered goals (annual HIV testing, 95% receiving HIV care, and 95% virologic suppression) and lastly, an equitable care continuum that achieves annual HIV testing, 95% receiving care, and 95% virologic suppression in Black MSM and White MSM. One-way and multiway sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mean age at death and YLG.

Results

In the simulated cohort, the mean (SD) age at HIV infection was 27.0 (10.8) years for Black MSM and 35.5 (13.6) years for White MSM. In status quo, mean age at death would be 68.8 years for Black MSM and 75.6 years for White MSM. The equal improvements in care goals would result in 0.5 YLG for Black MSM and 0.5 to 0.9 YLG for White MSM. Achieving any 1 equity-centered goal would result in 0.5 to 1.7 YLG for Black MSM and 0.4 to 1.3 YLG for White MSM. With an equitable care continuum compared with the nationally reported status quo, Black MSM and White MSM would gain 3.5 and 2.1 life-years, respectively. If the status quo HIV testing was every 6 years with 75% retained in care and 75% virologically suppressed, Black MSM would gain 4.2 life-years with an equitable care continuum.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this simulation modeling study of HIV care goals, equal improvements in HIV care for Black and White MSM maintained or worsened inequities. These results suggest that equity-centered goals for the HIV care continuum are critical to mitigate long-standing inequities in HIV outcomes.

Neighborhood Social Environment and Body Mass Index: The Mediating Role of Mental Wellbeing

The association between neighborhood-built environment and body mass index (BMI) is well-characterized, whereas fewer studies have explored the mechanisms underlying the relationship between neighborhood social environment and obesogenic behaviors. Using data from a random sample of 16,820 residents ≥18 years from all 169 Connecticut towns and seven ZIP Codes in New York, this study examines the influence of neighborhood social environment on residents' mental wellbeing, physical activity, and BMI. Structural equation modeling was conducted to estimate direct and indirect effects of neighborhood social environment on BMI, using mental wellbeing and physical activity as intermediate variables. There were significant total [β(SE) = 0.741 (0.170), p < 0.0001], direct [β(SE) = 0.456 (0.1890), p = 0.016], and indirect [β(SE) = 0.285 (0.061), p < 0.0001] effects of neighborhood social environment on BMI. Low physical activity was a partial mediator of the effect of non-favorable neighborhood social environment on BMI [β(SE) = -0.071 (0.011), p < 0.0001]. The association between neighborhood social environment and BMI was also mediated by mental wellbeing [β(SE) = 0.214 (0.060), p < 0.0001], and by mental wellbeing through physical activity [β(SE) = 0.071 (0.011), p < 0.0001]. Study findings provide further support for building strong social environments to improve population health and suggest that strategies prioritizing mental wellbeing may benefit behavioral interventions aimed at reducing obesity risk and should be a focus of prevention efforts in and of itself.

The association between all-cause mortality and HIV acquisition risk groups in the United States, 2001-2014

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations between all-cause mortality and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition risk groups among people without HIV in the United States.

METHODS

We used data from 23,657 (NHANES) participants (2001-2014) and the Linked Mortality File to classify individuals without known HIV into HIV acquisition risk groups: people who ever injected drugs (ever-PWID); men who have sex with men (MSM); heterosexually active people at increased risk for HIV (HIH), using low income as a proxy for increased risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted and unadjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Compared with sex-specific heterosexually active people at average risk for HIV (HAH), the adjusted HR (95% CI) were: male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46), female ever-PWID 3.50 (2.04, 6.01), MSM 1.51 (1.00, 2.27), male HIH 1.68 (1.04, 2.06), female HIH 2.35 (1.87, 2.95), and male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Most people at increased risk for HIV in the US experience higher all-cause mortality than people at average risk. Strategies addressing social determinants that increase HIV risk should be incorporated into HIV prevention and other health promotion programs.

The Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Clinic-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for People With HIV, Depression, and Virologic Failure in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Depression affects 25%-30% of people with HIV (PWH) in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and is associated with both antiretroviral therapy (ART) nonadherence and increased mortality. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of task-shifted, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for PWH with diagnosed depression and virologic failure from a randomized trial in RSA.

SETTING

RSA.

METHODS

Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model, we simulated both trial strategies: enhanced treatment as usual (ETAU) and ETAU plus CBT for ART adherence and depression (CBT-AD; 8 sessions plus 2 follow-ups). In the trial, viral suppression at 1 year was 20% with ETAU and 32% with CBT-AD. Model inputs included mean initial age (39 years) and CD4 count (214/μL), ART costs ($7.5-22/mo), and CBT costs ($29/session). We projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs: $/QALY [discounted 3%/yr]; cost-effectiveness threshold: ≤$2545/QALY [0.5× per capita GDP]). In sensitivity analyses, we determined how input parameter variation affected cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Model-projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression were 18.9% and 8.7% with ETAU and 21.2% and 9.7% with CBT-AD, respectively. Compared with ETAU, CBT-AD would increase discounted life expectancy from 4.12 to 4.68 QALYs and costs from $6210/person to $6670/person (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $840/QALY). CBT-AD would remain cost-effective unless CBT-AD cost >$70/session and simultaneously improved 1-year viral suppression by ≤4% compared with ETAU.

CONCLUSIONS

CBT for PWH with depression and virologic failure in RSA could improve life expectancy and be cost-effective. Such targeted mental health interventions should be integrated into HIV care.

Evaluation of Hepatitis C Treatment Outcomes Among Patients Enrolled in Outpatient Parenteral Antibiotic Therapy-Boston, Massachusetts, 2016-2021

In our Boston-based outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy (OPAT) program between 2016 and 2021, we found that a low proportion of patients with active hepatitis C virus (HCV) were prescribed HCV treatment by their OPAT provider and few achieved sustained virologic response. Clinicians should consider concurrent HCV treatment during OPAT.

Impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in urban centers in Brazil: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Brazil remain disproportionately affected by HIV. We estimated the potential incidence reduction by five years with increased uptake of publicly-funded, daily, oral tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM using the Cost Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model. We used national data, local studies, and literature to inform model parameters for three cities: Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and Manaus.

RESULTS

In Rio de Janero, a PrEP intervention achieving 10% uptake within 60 months would decrease incidence by 2.3% whereas achieving 60% uptake within 24 months would decrease incidence by 29.7%; results were similar for Salvador and Manaus. In sensitivity analyses, decreasing mean age at PrEP initiation from 33 to 21 years increased incidence reduction by 34%; a discontinuation rate of 25% per year decreased it by 12%.

CONCLUSION

Targeting PrEP to young MSM and minimizing discontinuation could substantially increase PrEP's impact.

Factors Associated With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Uptake Among Pregnant Women and Nonpregnant Women of Reproductive Age in Jamaica

Background

Despite high rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related maternal mortality, Jamaica currently has little data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant women.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional, web-based survey of 192 reproductive-aged women in Jamaica from February 1 to 8, 2022. Participants were recruited from a convenience sample of patients, providers, and staff at a teaching hospital. We assessed self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status and COVID-19-related medical mistrust (operationalized as vaccine confidence, government mistrust, and race-based mistrust). We used multivariable modified Poisson regression to test the association between vaccine uptake and pregnancy.

Results

Of 192 respondents, 72 (38%) were pregnant. Most (93%) were Black. Vaccine uptake was 35% in pregnant women versus 75% in nonpregnant women. Pregnant women were more likely to cite healthcare providers versus the government as trustworthy sources of COVID-19 vaccine information (65% vs 28%). Pregnancy, low vaccine confidence, and government mistrust were associated with a lower likelihood of COVID-19 vaccination (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 0.68 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .49-.95], aPR = 0.61 [95% CI, .40-.95], and aPR = 0.68 [95% CI, .52-.89], respectively). Race-based mistrust was not associated with COVID-19 vaccination in the final model.

Conclusions

Pregnancy, low vaccine confidence, and government mistrust were associated with a lower likelihood of COVID-19 vaccination among reproductive-aged women in Jamaica. Future studies should evaluate the efficacy of strategies proven to improve maternal vaccination coverage, including standing "opt-out" vaccination orders and collaborative provider and patient-led educational videos tailored for pregnant individuals. Strategies that decouple vaccine messaging from government agencies also warrant evaluation.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning.

METHODS

We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results.

RESULTS

We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing, Linkage, and Early Antiretroviral Treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project

BACKGROUND

The Botswana Combination Prevention Project tested the impact of combination prevention (CP) on HIV incidence in a community-randomized trial. Each trial arm had ∼55,000 people, 26% HIV prevalence, and 72% baseline ART coverage. Results showed intensive testing and linkage campaigns, expanded antiretroviral treatment (ART), and voluntary male medical circumcision referrals increased coverage and decreased incidence over ∼29 months of follow-up. We projected lifetime clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of CP in this population.

SETTING

Rural and periurban communities in Botswana.

METHODS

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model to estimate lifetime health impact and cost of (1) earlier ART initiation and (2) averting an HIV infection, which we applied to incremental ART initiations and averted infections calculated from trial data. We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [US$/quality-adjusted life-years (QALY)] for CP vs. standard of care.

RESULTS

In CP, 1418 additional people with HIV initiated ART and an additional 304 infections were averted. For each additional person started on ART, life expectancy increased 0.90 QALYs and care costs increased by $869. For each infection averted, life expectancy increased 2.43 QALYs with $9200 in care costs saved. With CP, an additional $1.7 million were spent on prevention and $1.2 million on earlier treatment. These costs were mostly offset by decreased care costs from averted infections, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $79 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced HIV testing, linkage, and early ART initiation improve life expectancy, reduce transmission, and can be cost-effective or cost-saving in settings like Botswana.

Development and validation of the age-associated dementia policy (AgeD-Pol) computer simulation model in the USA and Europe

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a novel, microsimulation model that accounts for the prevalence and incidence of age-associated dementias (AAD), disease progression and associated mortality.

DESIGN, DATA SOURCES AND OUTCOME MEASURES

We developed the AAD policy (AgeD-Pol) model, a microsimulation model to simulate the natural history, morbidity and mortality associated with AAD. We populated the model with age-stratified and sex-stratified data on AAD prevalence, AAD incidence and mortality among people with AAD. We first performed internal validation using data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) cohort study. We then performed external validation of the model using data from the Framingham Heart Study, the Rotterdam Study and Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). We compared model-projected AAD cumulative incidence and mortality with published cohort data using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE).

RESULTS

In internal validation, the AgeD-Pol model provided a good fit to the ACT cohort for cumulative AAD incidence, 10.4% (MAPE, 0.2%) and survival, 66.5% (MAPE, 8.8%), after 16 years of follow-up among those initially aged 65-69 years. In the external validations, the model-projected lifetime cumulative incidence of AAD was 30.5%-32.4% (females) and 16.7%-23.0% (males), using data from the Framingham and Rotterdam cohorts, and AAD cumulative incidence was 21.5% over 14 years using KPNC data. Model projections demonstrated a good fit to all three cohorts (MAPE, 0.9%-9.0%). Similarly, model-projected survival provided good fit to the Rotterdam (RMSE, 1.9-3.6 among those with and without AAD) and KPNC cohorts (RMSE, 7.6-18.0 among those with AAD).

CONCLUSIONS

The AgeD-Pol model performed well when validated to published data for AAD cumulative incidence and mortality and provides a useful tool to project the AAD disease burden for health systems planning in the USA.

Cost-effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

BACKGROUND

Despite the advent of safe and effective coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines, pervasive inequities in global vaccination persist.

METHODS

We projected health benefits and donor costs of delivering vaccines for up to 60% of the population in 91 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modeled a highly contagious (Re at model start, 1.7), low-virulence (infection fatality ratio [IFR], 0.32%) "Omicron-like" variant and a similarly contagious "severe" variant (IFR, 0.59%) over 360 days, accounting for country-specific age structure and healthcare capacity. Costs included vaccination startup (US$630 million) and per-person procurement and delivery (US$12.46/person vaccinated).

RESULTS

In the Omicron-like scenario, increasing current vaccination coverage to achieve at least 15% in each of the 91 LMICs would prevent 11 million new infections and 120 000 deaths, at a cost of US$0.95 billion, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$670/year of life saved (YLS). Increases in vaccination coverage to 60% would additionally prevent up to 68 million infections and 160 000 deaths, with ICERs <US$8000/YLS. ICERs were <US$4000/YLS under the more severe variant scenario and generally robust to assumptions about vaccine effectiveness, uptake, and costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Funding expanded COVID-19 vaccine delivery in LMICs would save hundreds of thousands of lives, be similarly or more cost-effective than other donor-funded global aid programs, and improve health equity.

Pediatric biorepository participation during the COVID-19 pandemic: predictors of enrollment and biospecimen donation

Background

Patient-level predictors of enrollment in pediatric biorepositories are poorly described. Especially in pandemic settings, understanding who is likely to enroll in a biorepository is critical to interpreting analyses conducted on biospecimens. We describe predictors of pediatric COVID-19 biorepository enrollment and biospecimen donation to identify gaps in COVID-19 research on pediatric biospecimens.

Methods

We compared data from enrollees and non-enrollees aged 0–25 years with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection who were approached for enrollment in the Massachusetts General Hospital pediatric COVID-19 biorepository between April 12, 2020, and May 28, 2020, from community or academic outpatient or inpatient settings. Demographic and clinical data at presentation to care were from automatic and manual chart extractions. Predictors of enrollment and biospecimen donation were assessed with Poisson regression models.

Results

Among 457 individuals approached, 214 (47%) enrolled in the biorepository. A COVID-19 epidemiologic risk factor was recorded for 53%, and 15% lived in a US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-defined COVID-19 hotspot. Individuals living in a COVID-19 hotspot (relative risk (RR) 2.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8–3.2]), with symptoms at presentation (RR 1.8 [95% CI: 1.2–2.7]), or admitted to hospital (RR 1.8 [95% CI: 1.2–2.8]) were more likely to enroll. Seventy-nine percent of enrollees donated any biospecimen, including 97 nasopharyngeal swabs, 119 oropharyngeal swabs, and 105 blood, 16 urine, and 16 stool specimens, respectively. Age, sex, race, ethnicity, and neighborhood-level socioeconomic status based on zip code did not predict enrollment or biospecimen donation.

Conclusions

While fewer than half of individuals approached consented to participate in the pediatric biorepository, enrollment appeared to be representative of children affected by the pandemic. Living in a COVID-19 hotspot, symptoms at presentation to care and hospital admission predicted biorepository enrollment. Once enrolled, most individuals donated a biospecimen.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12887-022-03185-6.

Association of co-occurring mental health problems with hepatitis C status among young people who inject drugs in rural New Mexico, 2016-2018

BACKGROUND

Injection drug use (IDU) remains the strongest risk factor for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the United States. HCV rates are increasing in rural areas among young adult people who inject drugs (PWID). People with HCV and PWID have disproportionate rates of mental health problems; however, it is unclear whether risky injection behaviors mediate the association between mental health problems and HCV. We examined the association between mental health problems and HCV in a rural cohort of young adult PWID, with the goal of informing rural service delivery.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from a convenience sample of young adult PWID in 2 rural counties in New Mexico. Participants were recruited from 2 community venues between September 2016 and May 2018. Associations between mental health problems and HCV were examined using bivariate (Fisher's exact) and multivariable modified Poisson regression analyses (with robust standard errors). Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we assessed duration of IDU and receptive syringe sharing (RSS) as mediators of this relationship.

RESULTS

A total of 263 patients were enrolled, with a median age of 26.1 years. The majority were male (66.3%) and Hispanic/Latino (a) (87.6%). The median age first injected was 19 years, and over half reported having ever engaged in RSS (53.4%). At least one mental health problem was reported by 60.1% of participants, with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) being the most prevalent condition (42.2%). A majority (60.9%) tested positive for HCV antibody, and just under half (45.7%) of all participants tested positive for HCV ribonucleic acid. In SEM, PTSD had a significant total effect on HCV (τ = 0.230, P = 0.05), and this relationship was partially mediated by duration of IDU (αβ = 0.077, P = 0.03). The association between mental health problems and HCV was partially mediated by duration of IDU and the sequential mediation of duration of IDU and RSS (αβ + αββ = 0.091, P = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

High HCV rates among young adult PWID in rural New Mexico may be partly explained by mental health problems, duration of IDU and RSS. Mental health services for young adult PWID in rural areas may help decrease HCV transmission in rural areas. Trial Registration N/A.

The effects of acculturation and environment on lifestyle behaviors in Korean immigrants: the mediating role of acculturative stress and body image discrepancy

OBJECTIVES

Despite high rates of cardiometabolic diseases in Korean immigrants (KIs), little is known about cultural and environmental factors contributing to lifestyle behaviors. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine the relationships among acculturation, environment, and lifestyle behaviors (dietary behavior, physical activity, and sedentary behavior) through culturally sensitive psychological mediators, body image discrepancy and acculturative stress in middle-aged KIs.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study was conducted. KIs aged 30-65 years were recruited online and at Korean community centers and churches in the Northeastern US Participants completed validated measures of dietary behavior (the Nutrition Subscale of the Health Promoting Lifestyle Profile (HPLP) II), physical activity (the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) - short form), and sedentary behavior (the Sedentary Behavior Questionnaire). Acculturative stress was measured by the Acculturative Stress Index and body image discrepancy was measured by the Stunkard Figure Rating Scale. Acculturation was defined as a latent variable measured by Korean and American orientation (Vancouver Index of Acculturation), age of immigration to the US, length of residency in the US, and English proficiency. Data were analyzed with structural equation modeling (SEM).

RESULTS

The sample included 361 KIs (mean age = 41.77 ±10.28 years, 48.1% female, and 46.4% overweight or obese). In the SEM model, acculturation had significant indirect effects on dietary behavior, physical activity, and sedentary behavior through body image discrepancy. Acculturative stress mediated the relationship between acculturation and sedentary behavior. Greater environmental support for physical activity and better healthy food accessibility were related to higher levels of physical activity and healthier dietary behavior, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In our study, acculturation and environmental support for physical activity and healthy food simultaneously influenced KIs' lifestyle behaviors. Addressing an unhealthy body image and acculturative stress may be additional strategies for lifestyle intervention programs to prevent cardiometabolic diseases in KIs.

Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa

Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency.

Clinical Impact, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Expanded Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Testing in Massachusetts

BACKGROUND

We projected the clinical and economic impact of alternative testing strategies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence and mortality in Massachusetts using a microsimulation model.

METHODS

We compared 4 testing strategies: (1) hospitalized: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing only for patients with severe/critical symptoms warranting hospitalization; (2) symptomatic: PCR for any COVID-19-consistent symptoms, with self-isolation if positive; (3) symptomatic + asymptomatic once: symptomatic and 1-time PCR for the entire population; and (4) symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly: symptomatic with monthly retesting for the entire population. We examined effective reproduction numbers (Re = 0.9-2.0) at which policy conclusions would change. We assumed homogeneous mixing among the Massachusetts population (excluding those residing in long-term care facilities). We used published data on disease progression and mortality, transmission, PCR sensitivity/specificity (70%/100%), and costs. Model-projected outcomes included infections, deaths, tests performed, hospital-days, and costs over 180 days, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]).

RESULTS

At Re = 0.9, symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly vs hospitalized resulted in a 64% reduction in infections and a 46% reduction in deaths, but required >66-fold more tests/day with 5-fold higher costs. Symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly had an ICER <$100 000/QALY only when Re ≥1.6; when test cost was ≤$3, every 14-day testing was cost-effective at all Re examined.

CONCLUSIONS

Testing people with any COVID-19-consistent symptoms would be cost-saving compared to testing only those whose symptoms warrant hospital care. Expanding PCR testing to asymptomatic people would decrease infections, deaths, and hospitalizations. Despite modest sensitivity, low-cost, repeat screening of the entire population could be cost-effective in all epidemic settings.

Violence and Discrimination Against Men Who Have Sex With Men in Lebanon: The Role of International Displacement and Migration

Homosexuality is illegal in Lebanon and men who have sex with men (MSM) may experience discrimination. Displaced Syrians, who currently comprise approximately 20% of Lebanon's population, also face discrimination. Individuals who are members of both groups may experience heightened levels of discrimination and abuse. In partnership with local nongovernmental organizations serving the community, we recruited N = 292 MSM in Beirut, Lebanon. Participants were interviewed about experiences of violence and discrimination in the context of a larger health behavior survey, and all were offered anonymous HIV testing. Responses were analyzed using the framework of intersectionality, combining regression, geographical mapping of reported experiences, and network analysis of the participant recruitment pattern. MSM, born outside of Lebanon, who are primarily from Syria, face higher levels of discrimination and violence than native-born MSM (71% vs. 32% reporting at least one type of discrimination or violence). Socioeconomic status is also associated with discrimination and violence overall, and among native- and foreign-born MSM. Experiences vary by town and neighborhood, and are highly correlated between recruiting and recruited participants.These results highlight health risks faced by foreign-born MSM in Lebanon.

Urban Sexual Health Clinic Patients With "Undetermined Risk" for HIV Are Less Likely to Receive Preexposure Prophylaxis

BACKGROUND

New diagnoses of HIV increasingly occur among people who fall outside traditional transmission risk categories. This group remains poorly defined, and HIV prevention efforts for this group lag behind efforts for patients in other risk groups.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of patient visits at sexual health clinics in Boston, MA, over a 14-month period. Patients were classified into Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-defined HIV transmission risk categories. We compared frequencies of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), HIV, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) indications, and PrEP prescriptions. Predictors of HIV or STI among patients in the undetermined risk category were assessed with logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 4723 clinic visits during the study period. Patients in the undetermined risk group constituted the largest proportion (55.8%), followed by men who have sex with men (MSM; 42.7%). The proportion of visits by patients in the undetermined risk group with an indication for PrEP was low (28.0%) compared with MSM (91.3%) and MSM who also inject drugs (93.8%); however, the absolute number was high (737). Among patients with an indication for PrEP, those in the undetermined risk group were least likely to receive a prescription. Behavioral risk factors were poorly predictive of STI or HIV among patients in the undetermined risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with undetermined risk for HIV constituted a large proportion of clinic visits and had a large volume of sexual health needs but rarely received PrEP when indicated. To end the HIV epidemic in the United States, prevention efforts must include people who fall outside traditional risk categories.

Race, ethnicity, community-level socioeconomic factors, and risk of COVID-19 in the United States and the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

There is limited prior investigation of the combined influence of personal and community-level socioeconomic factors on racial/ethnic disparities in individual risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis nested within a prospective cohort of 2,102,364 participants from March 29, 2020 in the United States (US) and March 24, 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK) through December 02, 2020 via the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application. We examined the contribution of community-level deprivation using the Neighborhood Deprivation Index (NDI) and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) to observe racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 incidence. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04331509.

FINDINGS

Compared with non-Hispanic White participants, the risk for a positive COVID-19 test was increased in the US for non-Hispanic Black (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.47) and Hispanic participants (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.33-1.52) and in the UK for Black (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.34), South Asian (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.30-1.49), and Middle Eastern participants (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18-1.61). This elevated risk was associated with living in more deprived communities according to the NDI/IMD. After accounting for downstream mediators of COVID-19 risk, community-level deprivation still mediated 16.6% and 7.7% of the excess risk in Black compared to White participants in the US and the UK, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Our results illustrate the critical role of social determinants of health in the disproportionate COVID-19 risk experienced by racial and ethnic minorities.

High-cost, high-need patients: the impact of reported penicillin allergy

OBJECTIVES

More than 90% of patients who report a penicillin allergy have the allergy disproved when tested. Unnecessary use of alternative (non-beta-lactam) antibiotics can result in more treatment failures and adverse reactions. We described the prevalence and impact of a reported penicillin allergy in high-cost, high-need (HCHN) patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

METHODS

We identified HCHN patients in a care management program of an urban academic medical center (January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2016). We used multivariable logistic regression models to determine the association between a reported penicillin allergy and antibiotic use. We used multivariable Poisson regression models to determine the association between a reported penicillin allergy, with or without multiple drug intolerance syndrome (MDIS; ≥3 reported drug allergies), and healthcare resource utilization (HRU).

RESULTS

Of 1870 HCHN patients, 383 (20%) reported penicillin allergy, 835 (45%) had MDIS, and 290 (16%) had both. HCHN patients reporting penicillin allergy had an increased odds of beta-lactam alternative antibiotic use (adjusted odds ratio, 3.84; 95% CI, 2.17-6.80). HRU was significantly higher for patients reporting a penicillin allergy alone (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03-1.25) and with concurrent MDIS (aRR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.08-1.34).

CONCLUSIONS

HCHN patients had a high burden of reported drug allergy. A reported penicillin allergy conferred a 4-fold increased odds of beta-lactam alternative antibiotic use. Reporting penicillin allergy, with and without MDIS, was associated with significantly more HRU. HCHN care management programs should consider systematic drug allergy evaluations to optimize antibiotic use in these fragile patients.

Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for Adults Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

IMPORTANCE

Approximately 356 000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the United States. They have high risk of contracting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

OBJECTIVE

To assess the estimated clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness associated with strategies for COVID-19 management among adults experiencing sheltered homelessness.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This decision analytic model used a simulated cohort of 2258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston, Massachusetts. Cohort characteristics and costs were adapted from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were taken from published literature and national databases. Surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [Re], 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9, respectively) were examined. Costs were from a health care sector perspective, and the time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020.

EXPOSURES

Daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of individuals with positive symptom screening results, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternative care sites (ACSs) for mild or moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing were each compared with no intervention.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case of COVID-19 prevented.

RESULTS

The simulated population of 2258 sheltered homeless adults had a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (9.04) years. Compared with no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild or moderate disease was associated with 37% fewer infections (1954 vs 1239) and 46% lower costs ($6.10 million vs $3.27 million) at an Re of 2.6, 75% fewer infections (538 vs 137) and 72% lower costs ($1.46 million vs $0.41 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 51% fewer infections (174 vs 85) and 51% lower costs ($0.54 million vs $0.26 million) at an Re of 0.9. Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with a further decrease in infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1000 at an Re of 2.6, $27 000 at an Re of 1.3, and $71 000 at an Re of 0.9. Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more expensive than other options. Compared with no intervention, temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was associated with 81% fewer infections (376) and 542% higher costs ($39.12 million) at an Re of 2.6, 82% fewer infections (95) and 2568% higher costs ($38.97 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 59% fewer infections (71) and 7114% higher costs ($38.94 million) at an Re of 0.9. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges.

Cost-effectiveness of a novel lipoarabinomannan test for tuberculosis in patients with HIV

Background

A novel urine lipoarabinomannan assay (FujiLAM) has higher sensitivity and higher cost than the first-generation AlereLAM assay. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of FujiLAM for tuberculosis testing among hospitalized people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), irrespective of symptoms.

Methods

We used a microsimulation model to project clinical and economic outcomes of 3 testing strategies: (1) sputum Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), (2) sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (Xpert+AlereLAM), (3) sputum Xpert plus urine FujiLAM (Xpert+FujiLAM). The modeled cohort matched that of a 2-country clinical trial. We applied diagnostic yields from a retrospective study (yields for Xpert/Xpert+AlereLAM/Xpert+FujiLAM among those with CD4 <200 cells/µL: 33%/62%/70%; among those with CD4 ≥200 cells/µL: 33%/35%/47%). Costs of Xpert/AlereLAM/FujiLAM were US$15/3/6 (South Africa) and $25/3/6 (Malawi). Xpert+FujiLAM was considered cost-effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (US$/year-of-life saved) was <$940 (South Africa) and <$750 (Malawi). We varied key parameters in sensitivity analysis and performed a budget impact analysis of implementing FujiLAM countrywide.

Results

Compared with Xpert+AlereLAM, Xpert+FujiLAM increased life expectancy by 0.2 years for those tested in South Africa and Malawi. Xpert+FujiLAM was cost-effective in both countries. Xpert+FujiLAM for all patients remained cost-effective compared with sequential testing and CD4-stratified testing strategies. FujiLAM use added 3.5% (South Africa) and 4.7% (Malawi) to 5-year healthcare costs of tested patients, primarily reflecting ongoing HIV treatment costs among survivors.

Conclusions

FujiLAM with Xpert for tuberculosis testing in hospitalized people with HIV is likely to increase life expectancy and be cost-effective at the currently anticipated price in South Africa and Malawi. Additional studies should evaluate FujiLAM in clinical practice settings.

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background

Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa.

Methods

We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (R_e) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an R_e of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (R_e values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections.

Findings

When R_e was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94%, increased health-care costs by 33%, and was cost-effective (ICER $340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When R_e was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which R_e was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced.

Interpretation

In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations.

Funding

US National Institutes of Health, Royal Society, Wellcome Trust.

Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for People Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance:

Approximately 356,000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the US. They are at high risk for COVID-19.

Objective:

To assess clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of strategies for COVID-19 management among sheltered homeless adults.

Design:

We developed a dynamic microsimulation model of COVID-19 in sheltered homeless adults in Boston, Massachusetts. We used cohort characteristics and costs from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were from published literature and national databases. We examined surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [R_e] 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9). Costs were from a health care sector perspective; time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020.

Setting & Participants:

Simulated cohort of 2,258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston.

Interventions:

We assessed daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of screen-positives, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternate care sites [ACSs] for mild/moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing, each compared to no intervention.

Main Outcomes and Measures:

Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case prevented of COVID-19.

Results:

We simulated a population of 2,258 sheltered homeless adults with mean age of 42.6 years. Compared to no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild/moderate disease led to 37% fewer infections and 46% lower costs (R_e=2.6), 75% fewer infections and 72% lower costs (R_e=1.3), and 51% fewer infections and 51% lower costs (R_e=0.9). Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks further decreased infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1,000 (R_e=2.6), $27,000 (R_e=1.3), and $71,000 (R_e=0.9). Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more costly than other options. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission.

Conclusions & Relevance:

In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer COVID-19 infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in COVID-19 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges.

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background

Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19.

Methods

We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for household contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R_e) of 1·5 and 1·2. We compared HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC, considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <US$3,250/year-of-life saved (YLS) cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, we varied R_e, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions.

Findings

With R_e 1·5, HT resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths over 360 days. Compared with HT, HT+CT+IC+MS+QC reduced mortality by 94%, increased costs by 33%, and was cost-effective (ICER $340/YLS). In settings where quarantine centres cannot be implemented, HT+CT+IC+MS was cost-effective compared with HT (ICER $590/YLS). With R_e 1·2, HT+CT+IC+QC was the least costly strategy, and no other strategy was cost-effective. HT+CT+IC+MS+QC was cost-effective in many sensitivity analyses; notable exceptions were when R_e was 2·6 and when efficacies of ICs and QCs for transmission reduction were reduced.

Interpretation

In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations.

Receiver operating characteristic curves and confidence bands for support vector machines

Many problems that appear in biomedical decision-making, such as diagnosing disease and predicting response to treatment, can be expressed as binary classification problems. The support vector machine (SVM) is a popular classification technique that is robust to model misspecification and effectively handles high-dimensional data. The relative costs of false positives and false negatives can vary across application domains. The receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve provides a visual representation of the trade-off between these two types of errors. Because the SVM does not produce a predicted probability, an ROC curve cannot be constructed in the traditional way of thresholding a predicted probability. However, a sequence of weighted SVMs can be used to construct an ROC curve. Although ROC curves constructed using weighted SVMs have great potential for allowing ROC curves analyses that cannot be done by thresholding predicted probabilities, their theoretical properties have heretofore been underdeveloped. We propose a method for constructing confidence bands for the SVM ROC curve and provide the theoretical justification for the SVM ROC curve by showing that the risk function of the estimated decision rule is uniformly consistent across the weight parameter. We demonstrate the proposed confidence band method using simulation studies. We present a predictive model for treatment response in breast cancer as an illustrative example.

Clinical Impact, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness of Expanded SARS-CoV-2 Testing in Massachusetts

Background We projected the clinical and economic impact of alternative testing strategies on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Massachusetts using a microsimulation model. Methods We compared five testing strategies: 1) PCR-severe-only: PCR testing only patients with severe/critical symptoms; 2) Self-screen: PCR-severe-only plus self-assessment of COVID-19-consistent symptoms with self-isolation if positive; 3) PCR-any-symptom: PCR for any COVID-19-consistent symptoms with self-isolation if positive; 4) PCR-all: PCR-any-symptom and one-time PCR for the entire population; and, 5) PCR-all-repeat: PCR-all with monthly re-testing. We examined effective reproduction numbers (R e , 0.9-2.0) at which policy conclusions would change. We used published data on disease progression and mortality, transmission, PCR sensitivity/specificity (70/100%) and costs. Model-projected outcomes included infections, deaths, tests performed, hospital-days, and costs over 180-days, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). Results In all scenarios, PCR-all-repeat would lead to the best clinical outcomes and PCR-severe-only would lead to the worst; at R e 0.9, PCR-all-repeat vs. PCR-severe-only resulted in a 63% reduction in infections and a 44% reduction in deaths, but required >65-fold more tests/day with 4-fold higher costs. PCR-all-repeat had an ICER <$100,000/QALY only when R e ≥1.8. At all R e values, PCR-any-symptom was cost-saving compared to other strategies. Conclusions Testing people with any COVID-19-consistent symptoms would be cost-saving compared to restricting testing to only those with symptoms severe enough to warrant hospital care. Expanding PCR testing to asymptomatic people would decrease infections, deaths, and hospitalizations. Universal screening would be cost-effective when paired with monthly retesting in settings where the COVID-19 pandemic is surging.

Novel microsimulation model of tobacco use behaviours and outcomes: calibration and validation in a US population

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Simulation models can project effects of tobacco use and cessation and inform tobacco control policies. Most existing tobacco models do not explicitly include relapse, a key component of the natural history of tobacco use. Our objective was to develop, calibrate and validate a novel individual-level microsimulation model that would explicitly include smoking relapse and project cigarette smoking behaviours and associated mortality risks.

METHODS

We developed the Simulation of Tobacco and Nicotine Outcomes and Policy (STOP) model, in which individuals transition monthly between tobacco use states (current/former/never) depending on rates of initiation, cessation and relapse. Simulated individuals face tobacco use-stratified mortality risks. For US women and men, we conducted cross-validation with a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) model. We then incorporated smoking relapse and calibrated cessation rates to reflect the difference between a transient quit attempt and sustained abstinence. We performed external validation with the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the linked National Death Index. Comparisons were based on root-mean-square error (RMSE).

RESULTS

In cross-validation, STOP-generated projections of current/former/never smoking prevalence fit CISNET-projected data well (coefficient of variation (CV)-RMSE≤15%). After incorporating smoking relapse, multiplying the CISNET-reported cessation rates for women/men by 7.75/7.25, to reflect the ratio of quit attempts to sustained abstinence, resulted in the best approximation to CISNET-reported smoking prevalence (CV-RMSE 2%/3%). In external validation using these new multipliers, STOP-generated cumulative mortality curves for 20-year-old current smokers and never smokers each had CV-RMSE ≤1% compared with NHIS. In simulating those surveyed by NHIS in 1997, the STOP-projected prevalence of current/former/never smokers annually (1998-2009) was similar to that reported by NHIS (CV-RMSE 12%).

CONCLUSIONS

The STOP model, with relapse included, performed well when validated to US smoking prevalence and mortality. STOP provides a flexible framework for policy-relevant analysis of tobacco and nicotine product use.

Clinical and Economic Impact of Ibalizumab for People With Multidrug-Resistant HIV in the United States

BACKGROUND

We projected the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of ibalizumab plus an optimized background regimen (OBR) for people with multidrug-resistant (MDR) HIV in the United States.

METHODS

Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model and a health care sector perspective, we compared 2 treatment strategies for MDR HIV: (1) IBA + OBR-ibalizumab plus OBR and (2) OBR-OBR alone. Ibalizumab efficacy and cohort characteristics were from trial data: mean age 49 years, 85% male, and mean CD4 150/µL. Six-month viral suppression was 50% with IBA + OBR and 0% with OBR. The ibalizumab loading dose cost $10,500, and subsequent ibalizumab injections cost $8400/month; OBR cost $4500/month. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated using discounted (3%/year) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs. ICERs ≤$100,000/QALY were considered cost-effective. We performed sensitivity analysis on key parameters and examined budget impact.

RESULTS

In the base case, 5-year survival increased from 38% with OBR to 47% with IBA + OBR. Lifetime costs were $301,700/person with OBR and $661,800/person with IBA + OBR; the ICER for IBA + OBR compared with OBR was $260,900/QALY. IBA + OBR was not cost-effective even with 100% efficacy. IBA + OBR became cost-effective at base case efficacy if ibalizumab cost was reduced by ≥88%. For an estimated 12,000 people with MDR HIV in the United States, IBA + OBR increased care costs by $1.8 billion (1.5% of total treatment budget) over 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

For people with MDR HIV lacking other treatment options, ibalizumab will substantially increase survival when effective. Although adding ibalizumab to OBR is not cost-effective, the low number of eligible patients in the United States makes the budget impact relatively small.

Evaluation of the Cascade of Diabetes Care in the United States, 2005-2016

IMPORTANCE

Treatment advances in diabetes can meaningfully improve outcomes only if they effectively reach the populations at risk.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether the cascade of US diabetes care, defined as diabetes diagnosis, linkage to care, and achievement of individual and combined treatment targets, improved from 2005 to 2016 and to investigate potential disparities in US diabetes care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Nationally representative, serial cross-sectional studies included in the 2005-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were evaluated. Data on nonpregnant US adults (age ≥18 years) with diabetes who had reported fasting for 9 or more hours (n = 1742 diagnosed and 746 undiagnosed) were included. Data analysis was performed from August 1, 2018, to May 10, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Time period (2005-2008, 2009-2012, and 2013-2016), age, sex, race/ethnicity, health insurance, and educational level incorporated into logistic regression models predicting odds of target achievement.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Proportion of participants overall and stratified by age, sex, and race/ethnicity who were linked to diabetes care and met glycemic (hemoglobin A1c <7.0%-8.5%, depending on age and complications), blood pressure (<140/90 mm Hg), cholesterol level (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <100 mg/dL), and smoking abstinence targets and a composite of all targets.

RESULTS

In 2013-2016, of 1742 US adults with diagnosed diabetes, 94% (95% CI, 92%-96%) were linked to diabetes care; 64% (95% CI, 58%-69%) met hemoglobin A1c level, 70% (95% CI, 64%-75%) met blood pressure level, and 57% (95% CI, 51%-62%) met cholesterol level targets; 85% were nonsmokers (95% CI, 82%-88%); and 23% (95% CI, 17%-29%) achieved the composite goal. Results were similar in 2005-2008 (composite 23%) and in 2009-2012 (composite 25%). There was no significant improvement in diagnosis or target achievement during the study period. Compared with middle-aged adults (45-64 years) with diagnosed diabetes, older patients (≥65 years) had higher odds (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.17-2.48) and younger adults (18-44 years) had lower odds (aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.29-0.97) of meeting the composite target. Women had lower odds of achieving the composite target than men (aOR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.45-0.80). Non-Hispanic black individuals vs non-Hispanic white individuals had lower odds of achieving the composite target (aOR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.39-0.83). Having health insurance was the strongest predictor of linkage to diabetes care (aOR, 3.96; 95% CI, 2.34-6.69).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

It appears that the diabetes care cascade in the United States has not significantly improved between 2005 and 2016. This study's findings suggest that gaps in diabetes care that were present in 2005, particularly among younger adults (18-44 years), women, and nonwhite individuals, persist.

Area-level deprivation and preterm birth: results from a national, commercially-insured population

BACKGROUND

Area-level deprivation is associated with multiple adverse birth outcomes. Few studies have examined the mediating pathways through which area-level deprivation affects these outcomes. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between area-level deprivation and preterm birth, and examine the mediating effects of maternal medical, behavioural, and psychosocial factors.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using national, commercial health insurance claims data from 2011, obtained from the Health Care Cost Institute. Area-level deprivation was derived from principal components methods using ZIP code-level data. Multilevel structural equation modeling was used to examine mediating effects.

RESULTS

In total, 138,487 women with a live singleton birth residing in 14,577 ZIP codes throughout the United States were included. Overall, 5.7% of women had a preterm birth. In fully adjusted generalized estimation equation models, compared to women in the lowest quartile of area-level deprivation, odds of preterm birth increased by 9.6% among women in the second highest quartile (odds ratio (OR) 1.096; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.021, 1.176), by 11.3% in the third highest quartile (OR 1.113; 95% CI 1.035, 1.195), and by 24.9% in the highest quartile (OR 1.249; 95% CI 1.165, 1.339). Hypertension and infection moderately mediated this association.

CONCLUSIONS

Even among commercially-insured women, area-level deprivation was associated with increased risk of preterm birth. Similar to individual socioeconomic status, area-level deprivation does not have a threshold effect. Implementation of policies to reduce area-level deprivation, and the screening and treatment of maternal mediators may be associated with a lower risk of preterm birth.

Implementing School-Based Policies to Prevent Obesity: Cluster Randomized Trial

INTRODUCTION

Healthier school environments can benefit students, and school wellness policies may result in meaningful enhancements. Schools participating in federal child nutrition programs must implement wellness policies as mandated by law. The primary study objective is to assess effectiveness of implementing school-based nutrition and physical activity policies on student BMI trajectories.

STUDY DESIGN

Cluster randomized trial using 2 × 2 factorial design.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Twelve randomly selected schools in an urban district. Students were followed for 3 years through middle school, fifth to eighth grades (2011-2015, n=595 students, 92.3% participation, 85.2% retention).

INTERVENTION

Specific to randomized condition, support was provided for implementation of nutrition policies (e.g., alternatives to food-based rewards/celebrations) and physical activity policies (e.g., opportunities for physical activity during/after school).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sex-/age-adjusted BMI percentile and BMI z-score; behavioral indicators. Data collected via standardized protocols.

RESULTS

Analyses followed intention-to-treat principles, with planned secondary analyses (conducted 2016-2018). Students at schools randomized to receive support for nutrition policy implementation had healthier BMI trajectories over time (F=3.20, p=0.02), with a greater magnitude over time and cumulatively significant effects 3 years post-intervention (β=-2.40, p=0.04). Overall, students at schools randomized to receive the nutrition intervention had an increase in BMI percentile of <1%, compared with students in other conditions, whereas BMI percentile increased 3%-4%. There was no difference in student BMI between those in schools with and without physical activity policy implementation. Examining behavioral correlates in eighth grade, students at schools randomized to the nutrition condition consumed fewer unhealthy foods and sugar-sweetened beverages, and ate less frequently at fast-food restaurants (all p<0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

This cluster randomized trial demonstrated effectiveness of providing support for implementation of school-based nutrition policies, but not physical activity policies, to limit BMI increases among middle school students. Results can guide future school interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT02043626.

Retinopathy of Type 1 Diabetes in Arab Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

AIMS

To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of retinopathy prevalence in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) in 22 Arab countries.

METHODS

We systematically searched 4 different literature databases (PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science and Embase), from the date of inception until December 2017, to collect all the information about patients with T1D who developed retinopathy complications; for statistical analysis, we used MetaXL to evaluate the pooled prevalence estimate and the subgroup prevalence estimates employing double arcsine transformation and inverse variance heterogeneity models.

RESULTS

Our search strategy returned 475 studies, of which 39 met our inclusion criteria; of those, 16 were eligible for meta-analysis that were captured only in 15 Arab countries, through 45 years (1969-2014). The number of retinopathy patients was 396 out of 1,931 patients with T1D. The prevalence of retinopathy was 19% (95% CI 10-28%). Substantial heterogeneity was observed (Q 240.78, p < 0.0001, I2 93.77%, 95% CI 91.35-95.52%); however, no single study considerably affected the overall pooled prevalence estimate.

CONCLUSION

Almost one fifth of T1D patients in 15 Arab countries have diabetic retinopathy, therefore it is important to improve the care of patients with T1D and in Arab countries to avoid the development of such a devastating complication.

The Effects of Length of Residence and Exposure to Violence on Perceptions of Neighborhood Safety in an Urban Sample

Perceptions of neighborhood safety shape the well-being of individuals and communities, affecting neighborhood walkability, associated physical activity behaviors, and health conditions. However, less is known about the factors that determine perceptions of safety. One factor that may affect perceptions of neighborhood safety is the length of time someone has lived in their neighborhood. We use a representative, adult sample of urban low-income residents from the 2015 New Haven Health Survey (n = 1189) to investigate the associations between length of residence (new residents of < 1 year in neighborhood versus longer-term residents of 1 or more years in neighborhood) and perceptions of neighborhood safety (whether feeling unsafe to walk at night). We then examine the potential moderating effect of exposure to neighborhood violence on these associations. We find that the association between length of residence and perceived safety differs by exposure to neighborhood violence. Among those unexposed to neighborhood violence, longer-term neighborhood residents were more likely to feel unsafe compared to new residents (OR = 2.03, 95% CI 1.19, 3.45). Additionally, the effect of exposure to violence on feelings of safety was larger for new residents (OR = 9.10, 95% CI 2.72, 30.44) compared to longer-term residents (OR = 1.88, 95% CI 1.28, 2.77). Our findings suggest that length of residence may have implications for feelings of safety, and that experiences of violence may uniquely contribute to feelings of unsafety among new residents. These findings hold implications for interventions and policy efforts aimed at neighborhood safety improvements through community development, housing, or city urban planning initiatives, particularly for new neighborhood residents or those who experience neighborhood violence.

Dietary Factors Associated with Pancreatic Cancer Risk in Minia, Egypt: Principal Component Analysis

Background:

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a serious and rapidly progressing malignancy. Identifying risk factors including dietary elements is important to develop preventive strategies. This study focused on possible links between diet and PC.

Methods:

We conducted a case-control study including all PC patients diagnosed at Minia Cancer Center and controls from general population from June 2014 to December 2015. Dietary data were collected directly through personal interviews. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to identify dietary groups. The data were analyzed using crude odds ratios (ORs) and multivariable logistic regression with adjusted ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results:

A total of 75 cases and 149 controls were included in the study. PCA identified six dietary groups, labeled as cereals and grains, vegetables, proteins, dairy products, fruits, and sugars. Bivariate analysis showed that consumption of vegetables, fruits, sugars, and total energy intake were associated with change in PC risk. In multivariable-adjusted models comparing highest versus lowest levels of intake, we observed significant lower odds of PC in association with vegetable intake (OR 0.24; 95% CI, 0.07-0.85, P=0.012) and a higher likelihood with the total energy intake (OR 9.88; 95% CI, 2.56-38.09, P<0.0001). There was also a suggested link between high fruit consumption and reduced odds of PC.

Conclusions:

The study supports the association between dietary factors and the odds of PC development in Egypt. It was found that higher energy intake is associated with an increase in likelihood of PC, while increased vegetable consumption is associated with a lower odds ratio.

Association Between Maternal Comorbidities and Emergency Department Use Among a National Sample of Commercially Insured Pregnant Women

OBJECTIVES

Evidence suggests that, despite routine engagement with the health system, pregnant women commonly seek emergency care. The objectives of this study were to examine the association between maternal comorbidities and emergency department (ED) use among a national sample of commercially insured pregnant women.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using multipayer medical claims data maintained by the Health Care Cost Institute for women ages 18 to 44 years with a live singleton birth in 2011 (N = 157,786). The association between common maternal comorbidities (e.g., hypertension, gestational diabetes) and ED use during pregnancy was examined using multilevel models, while controlling for age, region, and residential zip code.

RESULTS

Twenty percent (n = 31,413) of pregnant women had one or more ED visit (mean ± SD = 1.52 ± 1.15). Among those who used the ED, 29% had two or more visits, and 11% had three or more visits. Emergency care seekers were significantly more likely to have one or more comorbid condition compared to those with no emergency care: 30% versus 21%, respectively (p < 0.001). Pregnant women with asthma had 2.5 times the likelihood of having had any ED visit (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.32-2.62). There was a significant increase in the probability (approximately 50%) of ED use among pregnant women with diabetes (AOR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.33-1.63) or hypertension (AOR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.43-1.55) or who were obese (AOR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.47-1.64). Increased odds associated with gestational diabetes were more modest, resulting in a 13% increased odds of using the ED (AOR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.07-1.18). Less than 0.6% of pregnant women (n = 177) received emergency care that resulted in a hospital admission. The admission rate was 0.4% (189 admissions/47,608 ED visits).

CONCLUSIONS

Among pregnant women, comorbidity burden was associated with more ED utilization. Efforts to reduce acute unscheduled care and improve care coordination during pregnancy should target interventions to patient comorbidity.

Nutrition label use is associated with lower longer-term diabetes risk in US adults

Background: Regular nutrition label use may have important long-term health implications. To our knowledge, the role of nutrition label use in protecting against the development of chronic diseases was unexplored prospectively before this study.Objective: We tested the association between nutrition label use and risk of a future diabetes diagnosis in a multiethnic US cohort.Design: Data from the ongoing National Longitudinal Survey of Youth-1979 (NLSY79) were analyzed. From 2002 (baseline) to 5 follow-up time points (2004-2012), 7150 diabetes-free, multiethnic young adults were prospectively followed for a diagnosis of incident diabetes. Nutrition label use, diabetes diagnosis, time to diabetes diagnosis, and all covariates were self-reported.Results: Between January 2002 and September 2013, 430 participants (6.0%) were diagnosed with diabetes. A weighted, multivariable, extended Cox regression was conducted, which suggested that in nutrition label users, the HR of diabetes diagnosis risk decreased significantly with time (P-nutrition label use × time interaction < 0.05) compared with risk in nutrition label nonusers.Conclusions: There is an association between nutrition label use and diabetes risk in the longer term. However, additional longitudinal research with a robust dietary intake assessment is needed to test this hypothesis.

An assessment of the social cognitive predictors of exclusive breastfeeding behavior using the Health Action Process Approach

RATIONALE

In the United States rates of exclusive breastfeeding duration remain exceedingly low. Exclusive breastfeeding is a complex learned behavior that is influenced by social cognitive, interpersonal, and structural factors. Interventions are needed that address factors at multiple levels of the social-ecological model. This study was designed to examine the social cognitive predictors of exclusive breastfeeding behavior in a sample of low-income women attending the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) breastfeeding peer counseling program and enrolled in the Lactation Advice Through Texting Can Help (LATCH) study.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to examine whether: (1) the theoretical model, the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA), fit the data well; (2) planning mediated the effect of intentions and maintenance self-efficacy on exclusive breastfeeding; and (3) recovery self-efficacy mediated the association between maintenance self-efficacy and exclusive breastfeeding behavior.

METHODS

Outcome expectancies, action self-efficacy and intentions were assessed prenatally at baseline in N = 119 participants. Maintenance self-efficacy, planning, recovery self-efficacy and breastfeeding behavior were measured at two weeks post partum. Structural equation modeling with mean and variance adjusted Weighted Least Squares estimation was used to examine the applicability of the HAPA model to the data.

RESULTS

Phase specific self-efficacy and planning significantly predicted exclusive breastfeeding status. Planning and recovery self-efficacy mediated the association between maintenance self-efficacy and exclusive breastfeeding. Planning did not emerge as a mediator between intentions and behavior.

CONCLUSION

These results demonstrate the utility of the HAPA model in predicting exclusive breastfeeding behavior among low-income women attending WIC. LATCH is a theoretically sound text messaging intervention that can be used to augment and reinforce the WIC breastfeeding peer counseling process.

Serum and cerebrospinal fluid immune mediators in children with autistic disorder: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The causes of autism likely involve genetic and environmental factors that influence neurobiological changes and the neurological and behavioral features of the disorder. Immune factors and inflammation are hypothesized pathogenic influences, but have not been examined longitudinally.

METHODS

In a cohort of 104 participants with autism, we performed an assessment of immune mediators such as cytokines, chemokines, or growth factors in serum and cerebrospinal fluid (n = 67) to determine potential influences of such mediators in autism.

RESULTS

As compared with 54 typically developing controls, we found no evidence of differences in the blood profile of immune mediators supportive of active systemic inflammation mechanisms in participants with autism. Some modulators of immune function (e.g., EGF and soluble CD40 ligand) were increased in the autism group; however, no evidence of group differences in traditional markers of active inflammation (e.g., IL-6, TNFα, IL-1β) were observed in the serum. Further, within-subject stability (measured by estimated intraclass correlations) of most analytes was low, indicating that a single measurement is not a reliable prospective indicator of concentration for most analytes. Additionally, in participants with autism, there was little correspondence between the blood and CSF profiles of cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors, suggesting that peripheral markers may not optimally reflect the immune status of the central nervous system. Although the relatively high fraction of intrathecal production of selected chemokines involved in monocyte/microglia function may suggest a possible relationship with the homeostatic role of microglia, control data are needed for further interpretation of its relevance in autism.

CONCLUSIONS

These longitudinal observations fail to provide support for the hypothesized role of disturbances in the expression of circulating cytokines and chemokines as an indicator of systemic inflammation in autism. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00298246.

Nutrition facts panel use is associated with higher diet quality and lower glycated hemoglobin concentrations in US adults with undiagnosed prediabetes

BACKGROUND

The majority of US consumers use the nutrition facts panel (NFP) or health claims for food selections. Although previous studies have consistently reported positive impacts of NFP use on dietary intake, evidence regarding the effect of the use of health claims, either alone or in combination with the NFP, on diet quality and health outcomes is scarce.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary objective was to test for associations of the use of food labels (the NFP or health claims) with overall diet quality in individuals with prediabetes. In addition, we examined the association between food label use and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) concentrations.

DESIGN

We conducted a weighted linear regression, which was appropriate for a complex sampling survey, with the use of cross-sectional data from 2654 US adults with undiagnosed prediabetes who participated in the 2005-2010 NHANES cycles. The following 4 categories of food label (NFP or health claims) use were identified: 1) both labels, 2) health claims only, 3) neither label, and 4) the NFP only. Healthy Eating Index-2010 score, which we used to assess diet quality, was calculated from two 24-h recalls. Blood samples for analyzing HbA1c concentrations (glycemic control) were collected in the mobile examination center.

RESULTS

The overall diet quality scores for the use of both labels [b: -2.76 (95% CI: -5.04, -0.48); P = 0.019], of health claims only [b: -3.46 (-6.64, -0.28); P = 0.033], and of neither label [b: -4.01 (-5.75, -2.28); P < 0.001] were lower than those of NFP-only users. Moreover, HbA1c concentrations of users of both labels [b: 0.09% (95% CI: 0.03%, 0.16%); P = 0.008] and health claims only [b: 0.13% (95% CI: 0.02%, 0.25%); P = 0.021] were higher than those of NFP-only users.

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with undiagnosed prediabetes, the use of health claims alone, of both labels, or of neither label (compared with the use of the NFP only) was associated with poorer diet quality. In addition, users of neither label and users of both labels had poorer glycemic control. Further studies are needed to understand why the use of health claims may not be health promoting in this high-risk population.

Telomere Length and Survival of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States

BACKGROUND

Telomere shortening is an important molecular event in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) initiation; however, its role in HCC progression and prognosis is less clear. Our study aimed to examine the association of telomere length with survival of patients with HCC.

METHODS

We measured telomere length in tumor and adjacent non-tumor tissues from 126 persons with HCC in the United States (U.S.) who were followed for mortality outcomes. Relative telomere length (RTL) was measured by a monochrome multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the association between telomere length and all-cause mortality. We also examined associations between telomere length and patient characteristics using multiple linear regression.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 6.0 years, 79 deaths occurred among 114 individuals for whom survival data were available. The ratio of RTL in tumor relative to non-tumor tissue was greater for individuals with regional or distant stage tumors (0.97) than localized stage tumors (0.77), and for individuals with grade III or IV tumors (0.95) than grade II (0.88) or grade I (0.67) tumors. An RTL ratio ≥1 was not associated with survival (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.55, 1.55) compared to a ratio <1, after adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex, tumor stage and tumor size. Similarly, RTL in the tumor and non-tumor tissue, respectively, were not associated with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

This U.S. based study found that telomeres may be longer in more aggressive HCCs. There was no evidence, however, that telomere length was associated with survival of patients with HCC. Future investigations are warranted to clarify the role of telomere length in HCC prognosis.

Abstract 818: Shortened telomere length in hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States

Background: Telomeres play an important role in the maintenance of chromosomal stability. It has been previously reported that telomere length is shortened in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) compared to paired non-tumor tissue. However, most studies have been conducted in high-risk regions such as Asia. To date, no prior study has examined telomere length and HCC in the United States, a low risk region where HCC etiology may differ from that of high risk regions.

Methods: We measured telomere length in 127 paired tumor and non-tumor tissue samples from persons with HCC in Iowa, Hawaii and Connecticut. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissues were collected at the time of diagnosis. Relative telomere length was measured by a monochrome multiplex quantitative PCR assay. The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare telomere length between tumor and paired non-tumor tissues. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to estimate the association between telomere length and mortality, adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex, and tumor stage and size at diagnosis.

Results: Of the 127 pairs of samples, telomere length was shorter in the tumor in 88 pairs (69%), longer in the tumor in 33 pairs (26%) and the same length in the tumor and non-tumor tissue in 6 pairs (5%). Overall, the HCC tissues had statistically significantly shorter telomere length than their matched non-tumor tissues (p &lt; 0.01). The proportion of pairs in which the tumor telomere was shorter than non-tumor was higher among those with localized stage tumors (81%) compared to those with regional or distant stage tumors (50%) (p &lt; 0.01 after adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex, and source of the case). In addition, we observed a 119% higher risk of mortality (adjusted relative risk 2.19) among persons whose tumors had shorter telomeres than their non-tumor tissue, compared to persons whose tumors had longer telomeres; however, the confidence interval was relatively wide (0.94-5.12).

Conclusion: Using tissue samples from persons with HCC in the United States, we found that telomere length was shorter in tumor tissue compared to paired non-tumor tissue, especially among localized stage tumors. In addition, there was a suggestion that tumor telomere shortening might be associated with higher risk of mortality. Together, these results may provide insight into the role of biological mechanisms associated with telomere shortening and into the prognosis of HCC in lower risk populations.

Citation Format: Baiyu Yang, Fatma M. Shebl, Lawrence R. Sternberg, Andrew C. Warner, David E. Kleiner, Daniel C. Edelman, Allison Gomez, Casey L. Dagnall, Belynda D. Hicks, Sean F. Altekruse, Brenda Y. Hernandez, Charles F. Lynch, Paul S. Meltzer, Katherine A. McGlynn. Shortened telomere length in hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 107th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2016 Apr 16-20; New Orleans, LA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(14 Suppl):Abstract nr 818.

Effects of Food Label Use on Diet Quality and Glycemic Control Among Latinos With Type 2 Diabetes in a Community Health Worker-Supported Intervention

OBJECTIVES

To determine the impact of an intervention led by community health workers (CHWs) on food label use and to assess whether food label use and diet quality mediate the intervention's impact on glycemic control.

METHODS

From 2006 to 2010, 203 Latinos (intervention group, n = 100; control group, n = 103) in Hartford County, Connecticut, with type 2 diabetes were randomized to an intervention that included 17 CHW-led home-based sessions over a 12-month period in addition to the standard of care available in both study arms. Data on food label use, diet quality, covariates, and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) were collected at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months. Data were analyzed via mixed effects and multilevel structural equation modeling.

RESULTS

Food label use in the intervention (vs control) group was significantly higher at 3, 12, and 18 months (odds ratio = 2.99; 95% confidence interval = 1.69, 5.29). Food label use and diet quality were positive mediators of improved HbA1c levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Culturally tailored interventions led by CHWs could increase food label use. Also, CHW-delivered food label education may lead to better diet quality and improve glycemic control among Latinos with type 2 diabetes.