Seasonality of rotavirus disease in the tropics: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The impact of increasing temperatures due to climate change on infectious diseases

Global temperatures will continue to rise due to climate change, with high temperature periods expected to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration. Infectious diseases, including vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever and malaria, waterborne diseases such as cholera, and foodborne diseases such as salmonellosis are influenced by temperature and other climatic variables, thus contributing to higher disease burden and associated healthcare costs, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged regions. Targeted efforts and investments are therefore needed to support low and middle income countries to prepare for and respond to the increasing infectious disease threats posed by rising temperatures. This can be facilitated by the development and refinement of robust disease and entomological surveillance and early warning systems with integration of climatic information that promote enhanced understanding of the geographic distribution of disease risk. To enhance healthcare workforce capacity and capability to respond to these public health threats, medical curricula and continuing professional education programmes for healthcare providers must include evidence based components on the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases.

Effect of rotavirus vaccination on the burden of rotavirus disease and associated antibiotic use in India: A dynamic agent-based simulation analysis

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhea in infants and young children in many low- and middle-income countries. India launched a childhood immunization program for rotavirus in 2016, starting with four states and expanding it to cover all states by 2019. The objective of this study was to estimate the effects of the rotavirus vaccination program in India on disease burden and antibiotic misuse.

METHODS

We built a dynamic agent-based model of rotavirus progression in children under five within each district in India. Simulations were run for various scenarios of vaccination coverage in the context of India's Universal Immunization Programme. Population data were obtained from the National Family Household Surveys and used to calibrate the models. Disease parameters were obtained from published studies. We estimated past and projected future reduction of disease burden and antibiotic misuse due to full vaccination nationwide, by state, and by wealth quintile.

RESULTS

We estimate that rotavirus vaccination in India has reduced the prevalence of rotavirus cases by 33.7% (prediction interval: 30.7-36.0%), total antibiotic misuse due to rotavirus by 21.8% (18.6-25.1%), and total deaths due to rotavirus by 38.3% (31.3-44.4%) for children under five. We estimate total antibiotic misuse due to rotavirus infection to be 7.6% (7.5-7.9%) of total antibiotic consumption in this demographic versus 9.6% (9.4-9.9%) in the absence of vaccination. We project rotaviral prevalence to drop to below one case for every 100,000 individuals in those below five if vaccination coverage is increased by 50.3% (45.2-58.5%) to 68.1% (63.1-76.4) nationwide.

CONCLUSION

Universal coverage of childhood rotavirus vaccination can substantially reduce inappropriate antibiotic use in India.

Global epidemiology, genotype distribution and coinfection rate of Human Aichi virus: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Acute gastroenteritis is a major health concern for all age groups and accounts for more than 2.5 million deaths annually in children under five years old. Human Aichi virus causes acute gastroenteritis and is associated with foodborne outbreaks. Little is known about its pathogenicity, evolution, and geographical distribution.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to describe the global seroprevalence of AiV-1 and its genotype distribution, track outbreaks, and estimate co-infection rates with other viral gastroenteritis.

METHODS

A comprehensive systematic search of the epidemiological aspects of AiV-1 was conducted using peer-reviewed English original articles indexed in several scientific database libraries since its first detection in Japan until October 2022. A total of 55 published studies were included in the final analysis based on the inclusion criteria.

RESULT

The global prevalence of AiV-1 was 1.45 %. To date, nine AiV-1 outbreaks were reported following the first oyster-associated outbreak in Japan between 1987 and 1991. AiV-1 genotype A has a worldwide distribution, whereas genotypes B and C have a pattern of geo-localization. The gradual and significant increase of AiV-1 seroprevalence with age was reported in all studies. The most predominant viruses causing viral coinfection among AiV-1-infected patients were Norovirus (36.55 %), Rotavirus (18.91 %), and Sapovirus (15.13 %). Coinfections with Norovirus (p-value 0.003), Rotavirus (p = 0.007), and Human Astrovirus (p = 0.032) were significantly correlated with AiV-1 coinfection.

CONCLUSION

This was the first comprehensive systematic review of AiV-1. Although AiV-1 has a low global prevalence, it can be considered a health concern due to its association with childhood gastroenteritis.

Rotavirus A Infection Prevalence and Spatio-Temporal Genotype Shift among Under-Five Children in Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia: A Multi-Center Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Globally, rotavirus (RV) A (RVA) is the most common cause of severe and sometimes fatal diarrhea in young children. It is also the major cause of acute gastroenteritis among children in Ethiopia. Currently, the WHO has prequalified four RVA vaccines for universal childhood immunization. Ethiopia introduced the monovalent Rotarix vaccine into its national immunization program in 2013. Since then, only a few studies on the burden and genotype distribution of RVA infection post-vaccine introduction have been conducted (mostly at sentinel surveillance sites). Therefore, this study aimed to assess RVA prevalence and genotype distribution among children under five years in Ethiopia (February 2021-December 2022). Methods: This multi-center hospital-based cross-sectional study involved 537 diarrheic children under-five years old. Rotavirus A detection was conducted using a one-step reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Genotyping was conducted by Sanger sequencing of the VP7 (complete) and VP4 (partial) genes. Descriptive analysis and Pearson's chi-squared test were carried out using SPSS version 29. Phylogenetic analysis with 1000 bootstrap replicates was performed using MEGA version 11 software. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05 for all analyses. Results: The prevalence of RVA infection among diarrheic children was 17.5%. The most prevalent G-types identified were G3 (37%), the previously uncommon G12 (28%), and G1 (20%). The predominant P-types were P[8] (51%), P[6] (29%), and P[4] (14%). The three major G/P combinations observed were G3P[8] (32.8%), G12P[6] (28.4%), and G1P[8] (19.4%). Phylogenetic analysis revealed clustering of Ethiopian strains with the globally reported strains. Many strains exhibited amino acid differences in the VP4 (VP8* domain) and VP7 proteins compared to vaccine strains, potentially affecting virus neutralization. Conclusions: Despite the high RVA vaccination rate, the prevalence of RVA infection remains significant among diarrheic children in Ethiopia. There is an observable shift in circulating RVA genotypes from G1 to G3, alongside the emergence of unusual G/P genotype combinations such as G9P[4]. Many of these circulating RVA strains have shown amino acid substitutions that may allow for neutralization escape. Therefore, further studies are warranted to comprehend the emergence of these unusual RVA strains and the diverse factors influencing the vaccine's diminished effectiveness in developing countries.

Rainfall and Temperature Influences on Childhood Diarrhea and the Effect Modification Role of Water and Sanitation Conditions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted the worsening impacts of climate change. Two climate factors-temperature and rainfall uncertainties-influence the risk of childhood diarrhea, which remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. They create a conducive environment for diarrhea-causing pathogens and overwhelm environmental prevention measures. This study aimed to produce comprehensive evidence on the association of temperature and rainfall variability with the risk of childhood diarrhea and the influence of water and sanitation conditions on those associations. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) approach. Records published in English from 2006 to 2023 were searched on 8 January 2024 via PubMed, EMBASE, ScienceDirect, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, and Google/Google Scholar using comprehensive search terms. We assessed studies for any risk of bias using the Navigation Guide and rated the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. The heterogeneity among estimates was assessed using I-squared statistics (I2). The findings of the analysis were presented with forest plots using an incidence rate ratio (IRR). A meta-analysis was conducted on effect modifiers (water supply and sanitation conditions) using a random effects model with a 95% confidence interval (CI). The statistical analyses were conducted using R 4.3.2 software and Review Manager 5.3. A total of 2017 records were identified through searches, and only the 36 articles that met the inclusion criteria were included. The analysis suggests a small positive association between increased temperature and the occurrence of under-five diarrhea, with the pooled IRR = 1.04; 95% CI [1.03, 1.05], at I2 = 56% and p-value < 0.01, and increased rainfall and U5 diarrhea, with IRR = 1.14; 95% CI [1.03, 1.27], at I2 = 86% and p-value < 0.01. The meta-analysis indicated a positive association between unimproved latrine facilities and drinking water sources with a rainfall-modified effect on U5 diarrhea, with IRR = 1.21; 95% CI [0.95, 1.53], at I2 = 62% and p-value = 0.03. We found that an increase in mean temperature and rainfall was associated with an increased risk of childhood diarrhea. Where there were unimproved latrine facilities and drinking water sources, the increase in mean rainfall or temperature would increase the incidence of childhood diarrhea. The results of this review help in assessing the effectiveness of current intervention programs, making changes as needed, or creating new initiatives to lower the prevalence of childhood diarrhea.

Epidemiology of Rotavirus in Humans, Animals, and the Environment in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Globally, rotavirus infections are the most common cause of diarrhea-related deaths, especially among children under 5 years of age. This virus can be transmitted through the fecal-oral route, although zoonotic and environmental contributions to transmission are poorly defined. The purpose of this study is to determine the epidemiology of rotavirus in humans, animals, and the environment in Africa, as well as the impact of vaccination.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Africa Index Medicus, and African Journal Online, identifying 240 prevalence data points from 224 articles between 2009 and 2022.

RESULTS

Human rotavirus prevalence among patients with gastroenteritis was 29.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 28.1%-31.5%; 238 710 participants), with similar estimates in children under 5 years of age, and an estimated case fatality rate of 1.2% (95% CI, .7%-2.0%; 10 440 participants). Prevalence was estimated to be 15.4% and 6.1% in patients with nongastroenteritis illnesses and apparently healthy individuals, respectively. Among animals, prevalence was 9.3% (95% CI, 5.7%-13.7%; 6115 animals), and in the environmental water sources, prevalence was 31.4% (95% CI, 17.7%-46.9%; 2530 samples).

DISCUSSION

Our findings highlight the significant burden of rotavirus infection in Africa, and underscore the need for a One Health approach to limiting the spread of this disease.

Associations between meteorological variation and hospitalisations for rotavirus infections in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Objectives

Rotavirus (RoV) infections have emerged as a significant public health concern around the world. Understanding the relationship between climatic conditions and hospitalisations due to RoV infections can help engage effective prevention strategies. This study aims to investigate the potential associations between meteorological variability and RoV-related hospitalisations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Methods

Hospitalization data from a tertiary teaching hospital in Kuala Lumpur over a twelve-year period were retrospectively collected. Concurrently, meteorological data were obtained from the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) including variables of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure to further demonstrate relationship with RoV-associated hospitalisations.

Results

The results indicated positive correlations between increased rainfall, rainy days, humidity, and RoV-related hospitalisations, suggesting the influence of environmental factors on the transmission of RoV.

Conclusions

This study highlights positive associations between meteorological variations and hospitalizations for RoV infections in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Further investigations, including national-level data, are needed to deepen our understanding of these associations, particularly within the context of Malaysia and to develop targeted interventions for disease prevention and control.

Detection and diversity of gastrointestinal viruses in wastewater from Caracas, Venezuela, 2021-2022

Gastrointestinal viruses (GIV) are an important cause of childhood morbidity and mortality, particularly in developing countries. Their epidemiological impact in Venezuela during the COVID-19 pandemic remains unclear. GIV can also be detected in domestic sewage. Ninety-one wastewater samples from urban areas of Caracas collected over 12 months and concentrated by polyethylene-glycol-precipitation, were analyzed by multiplex reverse-transcription-PCR for rotavirus/calicivirus/astrovirus and enterovirus/klassevirus/cosavirus, and monoplex-PCR for adenovirus and Aichi virus. The overall frequency of virus detection was 46.2%, fluctuating over months, and peaking in the rainy season. Adenoviruses circulated throughout the year, especially type F41, and predominated (52.7%) over caliciviruses (29.1%) that peaked in the rainy months, rotaviruses (9.1%), cosaviruses (5.5%), astroviruses and enteroviruses (1.8%). Aichi-virus and klassevirus were absent. Rotavirus G9/G12, and P[4]/P[8]/P[14] predominated. The occurrence of GIV in wastewater reflects transmission within the population of Caracas and the persistence of a potential public health risk that needs to be adequately monitored.

Clinical factors predicting rotavirus diarrhea in children: A cross-sectional study from two hospitals

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus is still a significant contributing morbidity and mortality in pediatric patients.

AIM

To look at clinical signs and symptoms and laboratory findings that can predict rotavirus gastroenteritis compared to non-rotavirus gastroenteritis.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study with medical records obtained from December 2015 to December 2019. Inclusion criteria for this study include all hospitalised pediatric patients (0-18 years old) diagnosed with suspected rotavirus diarrhea. The receiver operating curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test would be used to assess the final prediction findings' calibration (goodness of fit) and discrimination performance.

RESULTS

This study included 267 participants with 187 (70%) rotavirus-diarrhea cases. The patients were primarily male in both rotavirus (65.2%) and non-rotavirus (62.5%) groups. The median age is 1.33 years old (0.08-17.67 years old). Multivariate analysis shows that wet season (ORadj = 2.5; 95%CI: 1.3-4.8, Padj = 0.006), length of stay (LOS) ≥ 3 days (ORadj = 5.1; 95%CI: 1.4-4.8, Padj = 0.015), presence of abdominal pain (ORadj = 3.0; 95%CI: 1.3-6.8, Padj = 0.007), severe dehydration (ORadj = 2.9; 95%CI: 1.1-7.9, Padj = 0.034), abnormal white blood cell counts (ORadj = 2.8; 95%CI: 1.3-6.0, Padj = 0.006), abnormal random blood glucose (ORadj = 2.3; 95%CI: 1.2-4.4, Padj = 0.018) and presence of fecal leukocytes (ORadj = 4.1, 95%CI: 1.7-9.5, Padj = 0.001) are predictors of rotavirus diarrhea. The area under the curve for this model is 0.819 (95%CI: 0.746-0.878, P value < 0.001), which shows that this model has good discrimination.

CONCLUSION

Wet season, LOS ≥ 3 d, presence of abdominal pain, severe dehydration, abnormal white blood cell counts, abnormal random blood glucose, and presence of fecal leukocytes predict rotavirus diarrhea.

Inferring the proportion of undetected cholera infections from serological and clinical surveillance in an immunologically naive population

Most infections with pandemic Vibrio cholerae are thought to result in subclinical disease and are not captured by surveillance. Previous estimates of the ratio of infections to clinical cases have varied widely (2 to 100). Understanding cholera epidemiology and immunity relies on the ability to translate between numbers of clinical cases and the underlying number of infections in the population. We estimated the infection incidence during the first months of an outbreak in a cholera-naive population using a Bayesian vibriocidal antibody titer decay model combining measurements from a representative serosurvey and clinical surveillance data. 3,880 suspected cases were reported in Grande Saline, Haiti, between 20 October 2010 and 6 April 2011 (clinical attack rate 18.4%). We found that more than 52.6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49.4-55.7) of the population ≥2 years showed serologic evidence of infection, with a lower infection rate among children aged 2-4 years (35.5%; 95%CrI 24.2-51.6) compared with people ≥5 years (53.1%; 95%CrI 49.4-56.4). This estimated infection rate, nearly three times the clinical attack rate, with underdetection mainly seen in those ≥5 years, has likely impacted subsequent outbreak dynamics. Our findings show how seroincidence estimates improve understanding of links between cholera burden, transmission dynamics and immunity.

Study on association factors of intestinal infectious diseases based-Bayesian spatio-temporal model

BACKGROUND

Intestinal infectious diseases (IIDs) are a significant public health issue in China, and the incidence and distribution of IIDs vary greatly by region and are affected by various factors. This study aims to describe the spatio-temporal trends of IIDs in the Chinese mainland and investigate the association between socioeconomic and meteorological factors with IIDs.

METHODS

In this study, IIDs in mainland China from 2006 to 2017 was analyzed using data obtained from the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Spatio-temporal mapping techniques was employed to visualize the spatial and temporal distribution of IIDs. Additionally, mean center and standard deviational ellipse analyses were utilized to examine the spatial trends of IIDs. To investigate the potential associations between IIDs and meteorological and socioeconomic variables, spatiotemporal zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models was employed within a Bayesian framework.

RESULTS

During the study period, the occurrence of most IIDs has dramatically reduced, with uneven reductions in different diseases. Significant regional differences were found among IIDs and influential factors. Overall, the access rate to harmless sanitary toilets (ARHST) was positively associated with the risk of cholera (RR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.08-2.83), bacillary dysentery (RR: 1.32, 95%CI: 1.06-1.63), and other intestinal infectious diseases (RR: 1.88, 95%CI: 1.52-2.36), and negatively associated with typhoid fever (RR: 0.66, 95%CI: 0.51-0.92), paratyphoid fever (RR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.55-0.92). Urbanization is only associated with hepatitis E (RR: 2.48, 95%CI: 1.12-5.72). And GDP was negatively correlated with paratyphoid fever (RR: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.70-0.97), and bacillary dysentery (RR: 0.77, 95%CI: 0.68-0.88), and hepatitis A (RR: 0.84, 95%CI: 0.73-0.97). Humidity showed positive correlation with some IIDs except for amoebic dysentery (RR: 1.64, 95%CI: 1.23-2.17), while wind speed showed a negative correlation with most IIDs. High precipitation was associated with an increased risk of typhoid fever (RR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.09-2.13), and high temperature was associated with an increased risk of typhoid fever (RR: 2.82, 95%CI: 2.06-3.89), paratyphoid fever (RR: 2.79, 95%CI: 2.02-3.90), and HMFD (RR: 1.34, 95%CI: 1.01-1.77).

CONCLUSIONS

This research systematically and quantitatively studied the effect of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on IIDs, which provided causal clues for future studies and guided government planning.

Occurrence of Diarrheagenic Pathogens and Their Coinfection Profiles in Diarrheic Under Five Children and Tracked Human Contacts in Urban and Rural Settings of Eastern Ethiopia

Diarrheagenic Escherichia coli, Campylobacter, Nontyphoidal Salmonella, and Shigella are common cause of childhood diarrhea in countries like Ethiopia, but data on their sources and coinfection profiles is limited. A cross sectional study was conducted from November 2021 to January 2023 to determine the prevalence, coinfection, and monthly occurrence rates of major diarrheagenic bacteria in diarrheic under five children and asymptomatic contacts at urban and rural settings in Ethiopia. A total of 345 stool samples were collected from; 262 diarrheic children visiting Hiwot Fana Hospital, Kersa, and Adelle Health Centers; and 83 caretakers and siblings through case based contact tracing. Samples were analyzed using standard laboratory procedures and the overall prevalence of enteric pathogens was 26.96%, with the highest isolation rate during the winter and peaks of 73.91% in February. The occurrence of the pathogens in children and tracked contacts was 27.86 and 24.09%, respectively. In our study, 8.53% coinfection and 23.66% single pathogen infection was recorded in diarrheic children. The study also showed 4.51 and 3.88% of diarrhea in children from urban and rural had attributed to bacterial coinfection, respectively. The most prevalent pathogen in diarrheic children was Diarrheagenic E. coli (10.31%), and followed by Campylobacter. On the other hand, Diarrheagenic E. coli was the second dominant bacteria following Shigella in the traced contacts, with prevalence of 8.43% and 9.64%, respectively. Based on the study site, the prevalence of Diarrheagenic E. coli and Nontyphoidal Salmonella was higher in children from urban than those from rural. However, the occurrence of each pathogen had no significant differences (P > .05) between settings. The high pathogens occurrence rate in the current study indicates the need for strong control strategies and better child carrying and treatment of diarrheal diseases at both urban and rural settings. Further studies on possible sources and factors attributing to the occurrence of enteric pathogens in children are also recommended.

Quality of routine data for monitoring nutrition and diarrhoea indicators of children under 5 in Mozambique: an ecological study over a 5-year period

BACKGROUND

Undernutrition and diarrhoea have a high burden in children under 5 in low/middle-income countries. Having data-driven quality health services for these two diseases is key in order to address the high burden of diseases; therefore, health systems must provide data to monitor, manage, plan and decide on policies at all levels of health services.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the quality of nutrition and diarrhoea routine data on children under 5 in Mozambique.

DESIGN

A longitudinal ecological study was implemented. Secondary data were used to assess the quality of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM), deworming and rotavirus vaccine indicators based on the data's completeness, presence of outliers and consistency, and seasonality analysis in the form of time series analysis was performed.

SETTING

We used monthly district-level count data from 2017 to 2021, from all health facilities, from the Mozambican health information system (Sistema de Informação de Saúde para Monitoria e Avaliação, or District Health Information System version 2).

RESULTS

The rotavirus vaccine indicators presented better completeness when compared with other indicators under analysis. Extreme outliers were observed for deworming and rotavirus vaccines, with a higher number of outliers in the Zambezia and Nampula Provinces. Better consistency over time was observed when analysing the period before the COVID-19 pandemic, for all of the indicators and across provinces. Indicators of MAM and MAM-recovered showed more consistency issues over time in both periods of 2017-2019 and 2018-2021. In terms of seasonality analysis, for the MAM and MAM-recovered indicators, lower variation was observed, and heterogeneous patterns were seen across provinces for the rotavirus vaccine, which had the most pronounced negative seasonality components in Maputo City.

CONCLUSION

Major deficits regarding the analysed quality indicators were observed for Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia, Tete, Manica, and Maputo City and Province.

Recent public health concerns of the high-altitude tribal population of Lahaul and Spiti, Himachal Pradesh

Objective

India has a tribal population of 8.6%. Health concerns of the high-altitude tribal population in India play a vital role in overall socio-economic development and health transformation of the country. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the current health problems among the tribal population of Lahaul and Spiti district of Himachal Pradesh.

Material and Methods

The study area encompasses one regional hospital (RH) in Keylong (the district headquarters), three community health centers (CHCs), and 16 primary health care centers (PHCs). In addition, the district has 37 sub-centers (SCs) and 21 Ayurveda dispensaries to serve the district. The data for this study were gathered over a 4-year period from records of daily out-patient department registration from the various health centers (RH, CHCs, and PHCs) from 2017 to 2020.

Results

In terms of communicable diseases, the population in the concerned region was more likely to have acute respiratory infection, enteric fever, tuberculosis, and typhoid. Hypertension, asthma, bronchitis, and diabetes mellitus type II were determined to be the most common non-communicable diseases.

Conclusion

Acute respiratory disease, hypertension, diarrhea, accidental injuries, and eye problems were shown to be prevalent in the study area. The population's position in relation to these five diseases indicates the community's sensitivity to a variety of common conditions. There is a need to review the needs and priorities of the concerned population and create goals and targets to meet those needs using validated public health measures.

Prevalence and spatiotemporal distribution of rotavirus diarrhea among children younger than five years old in Lagos, Nigeria

Data on spatiotemporal distribution of rotavirus diarrhea are limited in many endemic settings. This study determined the prevalence and seasonal distribution of rotavirus among Nigerian children with diarrhea. Here, a total of 406 fecal samples were collected from patients attending six health facilities in Lagos between January - December 2019. Socio-demographic data of each enrolled child were collected. Rotavirus VP6 antigen was detected by enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) and confirmation by VP7 gene detection by reverse transcription polymerase-chain reaction. The overall rotavirus diarrhea prevalence was 16.3% by ELISA with children above 2 years having 29.2% of this prevalence and higher occurrence in females (59.1%) than males (40.9%) (P < .05). Rotavirus diarrhea diagnosis using RT-PCR showed 100% concordance with ELISA. Cases of rotavirus diarrhea were detected from March to July and from September to November with the highest number of cases detected in May and June (22.7% each), followed by July (21.2%). The prevalence of rotavirus diarrhea remains high in Lagos with an emerging higher disease activity in children above 2. A different rotavirus transmission dynamics compared to previous studies from Nigeria and other African countries was found. VP6 ELISA may reliably be used for continuous rotavirus surveillance in Nigeria.

Assessment of Rotavirus Infection in Hospitalized Children with Diarrhea

Background: Rotavirus (RV) is associated with diarrhea in children under 5 years old. It leads to severe dehydration. RV infection is the third cause of hospitalization and death in children under 5 years old. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the frequency of RV infection in hospitalized children under 5 years old with diarrhea during 2021-2022. Methods: In this cross-sectional observational study, a total of 190 stool samples from hospitalized children with diarrhea were collected in Mofid Children’s Hospital in Tehran from December 2020 to March 2021. RV infection was detected by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Chi-square tests were performed to determine the difference in age and gender group, time, and symptoms. Results: The overall prevalence of RV infection was 28.5% and higher in boys (68.5%), children aged ≤ 12 months (44.4%), and children with mixed feeding (33.3%); it is more common in winter. Vomiting (79.6%), fever (87.03%), and non-exudative stool (88.8%) were observed in most children with RV, but there were no significant differences in children with and without RV. Conclusions: Due to the prevalence of RV among children under 5 years of age, establishing a national RV registration system and control programs, like vaccination, seems to be considered.

Uncovering social and environmental factors that increase the burden of climate-sensitive diarrheal infections on children

Climate-sensitive infectious diseases are an issue of growing concern due to global warming and the related increase in the incidence of extreme weather and climate events. Diarrhea, which is strongly associated with climatic factors, remains among the leading causes of child death globally, disproportionately affecting populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We use survey data for 51 LMICs between 2000 and 2019 in combination with gridded climate data to estimate the association between precipitation shocks and reported symptoms of diarrheal illness in young children. We account for differences in exposure risk by climate type and explore the modifying role of various social factors. We find that droughts are positively associated with diarrhea in the tropical savanna regions, particularly during the dry season and dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry transition seasons. In the humid subtropical regions, we find that heavy precipitation events are associated with increased risk of diarrhea during the dry season and the transition from dry-to-wet season. Our analysis of effect modifiers highlights certain social vulnerabilities that exacerbate these associations in the two climate zones and present opportunities for public health intervention. For example, we show that stool disposal practices, child feeding practices, and immunizing against the rotavirus modify the association between drought and diarrhea in the tropical savanna regions. In the humid subtropical regions, household's source of water and water disinfection practices modify the association between heavy precipitation and diarrhea. The evidence of effect modification varies depending on the type and duration of the precipitation shock.

Seasonal pattern in occurrence of rotavirus infection (RV) in diarrheic children, calves and piglets from Bareilly, India

Rapid and reliable diagnosis for diarrhoeal disease is critically important for the differentiation of etiological agents and subsequent suitable treatment modalities. The objective of the study is to reveal the seasonal pattern in the occurrence of rotavirus in diarrheic children, calves and piglets from Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, India. A total of 115 diarrhoeal samples were collected, out of which 51 were collected during post-monsoon/autumn (September 2018-November 2018) and 64 during the winter season (December 2018-February 2019). The samples were collected from children <5 years (n = 50), piglets <3 months (n = 35) and calves <6 months of age (n = 30). These samples were screened by ribonucleic acid-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (RNA-PAGE) and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) by targeting the VP6 gene of rotavirus A (RVA) and the two were compared. In RNA-PAGE 29.4% (5/17), 6.3% (1/16) and 0% (0/18) samples collected from children, calves and piglets, respectively were rotavirus positive during the autumn season while 45.5% (15/33), 21.4% (3/14) and 17.7% (3/17) samples in the winter season. In RT-PCR, 41.2% (7/17), 12.5% (2/16) and 0% (0/18) samples were rotavirus positive in the autumn season while 51.5% (17/33), 28.6% (4/14) and 29.4% (5/17) samples in winter season collected from children, calves and piglets, respectively. On statistical analysis, no significant difference between the season and number of positives in children and calves (p > 0.05) was observed, however in piglets significantly higher number of RVA positives were detected in the winter season than autumn (p < 0.01). The diagnostic test comparison of RNA-PAGE and RT-PCR showed no statistically significant difference in detecting the RVA positives (p > 0.05). Overall the percent positivity showed a seasonal pattern with higher positivity in winter as compared to autumn season.

Rotavirus and Norovirus Infections in Children Under 5 Years Old with Acute Gastroenteritis in Southwestern China, 2018-2020

OBJECTIVE

Rotaviruses and noroviruses are important causes of acute gastroenteritis in children. While previous studies in China have mainly focused on rotavirus, we investigated the incidence of norovirus in addition to rotavirus in Southwestern China.

METHODS

From January 2018 to December 2020, cases of rotavirus or norovirus infections among children under five ages with acute gastroenteritis were evaluated retrospectively.

RESULTS

The detection rate of rotavirus was 24.5% (27,237/111,070) and norovirus was 26.1% (4649/17,797). Among 17,113 cases submitted for dual testing of both rotavirus and norovirus, mixed rotavirus/norovirus infections were detected in 5.0% (859/17,113) of cases. While there was no difference in norovirus incidence in outpatient compared to hospitalized cases, rotavirus was detected two times more in outpatients compared to hospitalized cases (26.6% vs.13.6%; P < 0.001). Both rotavirus and norovirus infections peaked in children aged 12-18 months seeking medical care with acute gastroenteritis (35.6% rotavirus cases; 8439/23,728 and 32.5% norovirus cases; 1660/5107). Rotavirus infections were frequent between December and March of each year while norovirus was detected earlier from October to December. Our results showed significant correlation between virus detection and environmental factors such as average monthly temperature but not relative humidity. In addition, we observed a reduction in the detection rates of rotavirus and norovirus at the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that rotavirus and norovirus are still important viral agents in pediatric acute gastroenteritis in Southwestern China.

The influence of demographic and meteorological factors on temporal patterns of rotavirus infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh

To quantify the potential impact of rotavirus vaccines and identify strategies to improve vaccine performance in Bangladesh, a better understanding of the drivers of pre-vaccination rotavirus patterns is required. We developed and fitted mathematical models to 23 years (1990-2012) of weekly rotavirus surveillance data from Dhaka with and without incorporating long-term and seasonal variation in the birth rate and meteorological factors. We performed external model validation using data between 2013 and 2019 from the regions of Dhaka and Matlab. The models showed good agreement with the observed age distribution of rotavirus cases and captured the observed shift in seasonal patterns of rotavirus hospitalizations from biannual to annual peaks. The declining long-term trend in the birth rate in Bangladesh was the key driver of the observed shift from biannual to annual winter rotavirus patterns. Meteorological indices were also important: a 1°C, 1% and 1 mm increase in diurnal temperature range, surface water presence and degree of wetness were associated with a 19%, 3.9% and 0.6% increase in the transmission rate, respectively. The model demonstrated reasonable predictions for both Dhaka and Matlab, and can be used to evaluate the impact of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh against changing patterns of disease incidence.

Rotaviruses: From Pathogenesis to Disease Control-A Critical Review

Since their first recognition in human cases about four decades ago, rotaviruses have remained the leading cause of acute severe dehydrating diarrhea among infants and young children worldwide. The WHO prequalification of oral rotavirus vaccines (ORV) a decade ago and its introduction in many countries have yielded a significant decline in the global burden of the disease, although not without challenges to achieving global effectiveness. Poised by the unending malady of rotavirus diarrhea and the attributable death cases in developing countries, we provide detailed insights into rotavirus biology, exposure pathways, cellular receptors and pathogenesis, host immune response, epidemiology, and vaccination. Additionally, recent developments on the various host, viral and environmental associated factors impacting ORV performance in low-and middle-income countries (LMIC) are reviewed and their significance assessed. In addition, we review the advances in nonvaccine strategies (probiotics, candidate anti-rotaviral drugs, breastfeeding) to disease prevention and management.

Epidemiological significance of the occurrence and persistence of rotaviruses in water and sewage: a critical review and proposal for routine microbiological monitoring

Globally, waterborne gastroenteritis attributable to rotaviruses is on the increase due to the rapid increase in population growth, poor socioeconomic conditions, and drastic changes in climatic conditions. The burden of diarrhea is quite alarming in developing nations where the majority of the populations still rely on untreated surface water that is usually polluted for their immediate water needs. Humans and animals of all ages are affected by rotaviruses. In humans, the preponderance of cases occurs in children under 5 years. Global efforts in advancing water/wastewater treatment technologies have not yet realized the objective of complete viral removal from wastewater. Most times, surface waters are impacted heavily by inadequately treated wastewater run-offs thereby exposing people or animals to preventable health risks. The relative stability of rotaviruses in aquatic matrices during wastewater treatment, poor correlation of bacteriological indicators with the presence of rotaviruses, and their infectiousness at a low dose informed the proposal for inclusion in the routine microbiological water screening panel. Environmental monitoring data have been shown to provide early warnings that can complement clinical data used to monitor the impact of current rotavirus vaccination in a community. This review was therefore undertaken to critically appraise rotavirus excretion and emission pathways, and the existence, viability and persistence in the receiving aquatic milieu. The efficiency of the current wastewater treatment modality for rotavirus removal, correlation of the current bacteriological water quality assessment strategy, public health risks and current laboratory methods for an epidemiological study were also discussed.

Associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections by pathogen: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have quantified the associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections, particularly all-cause enteric infections. However, the temperature sensitivity of enteric infections might be pathogen dependent. Here, we sought to identify pathogen-specific associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis by searching PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus for peer-reviewed research articles published from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2019, and also hand searched reference lists of included articles and excluded reviews. We included studies that quantified the effects of ambient temperature increases on common pathogen-specific enteric infections in humans. We excluded studies that expressed ambient temperature as a categorical or diurnal range, or in a standardised format. Two authors screened the search results, one author extracted data from eligible studies, and four authors verified the data. We obtained the overall risks by pooling the relative risks of enteric infection by pathogen for each 1°C temperature rise using random-effects modelling and robust variance estimation for the correlated effect estimates. Between-study heterogeneity was measured using I², τ², and Q-statistic. Publication bias was determined using funnel plot asymmetry and the trim-and-fill method. Differences among pathogen-specific pooled estimates were determined using subgroup analysis of taxa-specific meta-analysis. The study protocol was not registered but followed the PRISMA guidelines.

FINDINGS

We identified 2981 articles via database searches and 57 articles from scanning reference lists of excluded reviews and included articles, of which 40 were eligible for pathogen-specific meta-analyses. The overall increased risks of incidence per 1°C temperature rise, expressed as relative risks, were 1·05 (95% CI 1·04-1·07; I² 97%) for salmonellosis, 1·07 (1·04-1·10; I² 99%) for shigellosis, 1·02 (1·01-1·04; I² 98%) for campylobacteriosis, 1·05 (1·04-1·07; I² 36%) for cholera, 1·04 (1·01-1·07; I² 98%) for Escherichia coli enteritis, and 1·15 (1·07-1·24; I² 0%) for typhoid. Reduced risks per 1°C temperature increase were 0·96 (95% CI 0·90-1·02; I² 97%) for rotaviral enteritis and 0·89 (0·81-0·99; I² 96%) for noroviral enteritis. There was evidence of between-pathogen differences in risk for bacterial infections but not for viral infections.

INTERPRETATION

Temperature sensitivity of enteric infections can vary according to the enteropathogen causing the infection, particularly for bacteria. Thus, we encourage a pathogen-specific health adaptation approach, such as vaccination, given the possibility of increasingly warm temperatures in the future.

FUNDING

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Kakenhi) Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research.

Precipitation variability and risk of infectious disease in children under 5 years for 32 countries: a global analysis using Demographic and Health Survey data

BACKGROUND

Precipitation variability is a potentially important driver of infectious diseases that are leading causes of child morbidity and mortality worldwide. Disentangling the links between precipitation variability and disease risk is crucial in a changing climate. We aimed to investigate the links between precipitation variability and reported symptoms of infectious disease (cough, fever, and diarrhoea) in children younger than 5 years.

METHODS

We used nationally representative survey data collected between 2014 and 2019 from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) surveys for 32 low-income to middle-income countries in combination with high-resolution precipitation data (via the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station dataset). We only included DHS data for which interview dates and GPS coordinates (latitude and longitude) of household clusters were available. We used a regression modelling approach to assess the relationship between different precipitation variability measures and infectious disease symptoms (cough, fever, and diarrhoea), and explored the effect modification of different climate zones and disease susceptibility factors.

FINDINGS

Our global analysis showed that anomalously wet conditions increase the risk of cough, fever, and diarrhoea symptoms in humid, subtropical regions. These health risks also increased in tropical savanna regions as a result of anomalously dry conditions. Our analysis of susceptibility factors suggests that unimproved sanitation and unsafe drinking water sources are exacerbating these effects, particularly for rural populations and in drought-prone areas in tropical savanna.

INTERPRETATION

Weather shifts can affect the survival and transmission of pathogens that are particularly harmful to young children. As our findings show, the health burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases can be substantial and is likely to fall on populations that are already among the most disadvantaged, including households living in remote rural areas and those lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure.

FUNDING

University of California, San Diego FY19 Center Launch programme.

Associations Between Eight Earth Observation-Derived Climate Variables and Enteropathogen Infection: An Independent Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Surveillance Studies With Broad Spectrum Nucleic Acid Diagnostics

Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogen-specific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogens-adenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, Campylobacter, ETEC, Shigella, Cryptosporidium and Giardia-was matched by date with hydrometeorological variables from a global Earth observation dataset-precipitation and runoff volume, humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed. Models were fitted for each pathogen, accounting for lags, nonlinearity, confounders, and threshold effects. Different variables showed complex, non-linear associations with infection risk varying in magnitude and direction depending on pathogen species. Rotavirus infection decreased markedly following increasing 7-day average temperatures-a relative risk of 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.85) above 28°C-while ETEC risk increased by almost half, 1.43 (1.36-1.50), in the 20-35°C range. Risk for all pathogens was highest following soil moistures in the upper range. Humidity was associated with increases in bacterial infections and decreases in most viral infections. Several virus species' risk increased following lower-than-average rainfall, while rotavirus and ETEC increased with heavier runoff. Temperature, soil moisture, and humidity are particularly influential parameters across all enteropathogens, likely impacting pathogen survival outside the host. Precipitation and runoff have divergent associations with different enteric viruses. These effects may engender shifts in the relative burden of diarrhea-causing agents as the global climate changes.

Prevalence and seasonal pattern of enteric viruses among hospitalized children with acute gastroenteritis in Samawah, Iraq

Almost all of the deaths happening under the age of 5 occur in the developed countries of Africa and Asia. This study included children admitted to the surgical care, aged 6 months to 5 years, who suffered from acute gastroenteritis and received treatment at Samawah, Iraq, from December 2018 to December 2019. Test results detected different types of rotaviruses, adenoviruses, astroviruses using ELISA. 56.6% of the infections were attributed to a viral pathogen. The main cause was attributed to rotavirus and adenovirus. The causative agents of diarrheal diseases in 28.1% of cases are rotaviruses, in 17.05% – adenoviruses, in 11.43% – astroviruses. Viral mono-infections are detected more often than mixed infections. Viral intestinal infections are characterized by seasonality and rise in the cold season, with a peak incidence of rotavirus infection in April, adenovirus infection in November, and astrovirus infection in December.

Meteorological and social conditions contribute to infectious diarrhea in China

Infectious diarrhea in China showed a significant pattern. Many researchers have tried to reveal the drivers, yet usually only meteorological factors were taken into consideration. Furthermore, the diarrheal data they analyzed were incomplete and the algorithms they exploited were inefficient of adapting realistic relationships. Here, we investigate the impacts of meteorological and social factors on the number of infectious diarrhea cases in China. A machine learning algorithm called the Random Forest is utilized. Our results demonstrate that nearly half of infectious diarrhea occurred among children under 5 years old. Generally speaking, increasing temperature or relative humidity leads to increased cases of infectious diarrhea in China. Nevertheless, people from different age groups or different regions own different sensitivities to meteorological factors. The weight of feces that are harmfully treated could be a possible reason for infectious diarrhea of the elderly as well as children under 5 years old. These findings indicate that infectious diarrhea prevention for children under 5 years old remains a primary task in China. Personalized prevention countermeasures ought to be provided to different age groups and different regions. It is essential to bring the weight of feces that are harmfully treated to the forefront when considering infectious diarrhea prevention.

Temperature and risk of infectious diarrhea: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Infectious diarrhea (ID) is an intestinal infectious disease including cholera, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, bacterial and amebic dysentery, and other infectious diarrhea. There are many studies that have explored the relationship between ambient temperature and the spread of infectious diarrhea, but the results are inconsistent. It is necessary to systematically evaluate the impact of temperature on the incidence of ID. This study was based on the PRISMA statement to report this systematic review. We conducted literature searches from CNKI, VIP databases, CBM, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and other databases. The number registered in PROSPERO is CRD42021225472. After searching a total of 4915 articles in the database and references, 27 studies were included. The number of people involved exceeded 7.07 million. The overall result demonstrated when the temperature rises, the risk of infectious diarrhea increases significantly (RR_cumulative=1.42, 95%CI: 1.07-1.88, RR_single-day=1.08, 95%CI: 1.03-1.14). Subgroup analysis found the effect of temperature on the bacillary dysentery group (RR_cumulative=1.85, 95%CI: 1.48-2.30) and unclassified diarrhea groups (RR_cumulative=1.18, 95%CI: 0.59-2.34). The result of the single-day effect subgroup analysis was similar to the result of the cumulative effect. And the sensitivity analysis proved that the results were robust. This systematic review and meta-analysis support that temperature will increase the risk of ID, which is helpful for ID prediction and early warning in the future.

Childhood Rotavirus Infection Associated with Temperature and Particulate Matter 2.5 µm: A Retrospective Cohort Study

No study has ever investigated how ambient temperature and PM_2.5 mediate rotavirus infection (RvI) in children. We used insurance claims data from Taiwan in 2006–2012 to evaluate the RvI characteristics in children aged ≤ 9. The RvI incidence rates were higher in colder months, reaching the highest in March (117.0/100 days), and then declining to the lowest in July (29.2/100 days). The age–sex-specific average incident cases were all higher in boys than in girls. Stratified analysis by temperature (<20, 20–24, and ≥25 °C) and PM_2.5 (<17.5, 17.5–31.4, 31.5–41.9, and ≥42.0 μg/m³) showed that the highest incidence was 16.4/100 days at average temperatures of <20 °C and PM_2.5 of 31.5–41.9 μg/m³, with Poisson regression analysis estimating an adjusted relative risk (aRR) of 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.11–1.43), compared to the incidence at the reference condition (<20 °C and PM_2.5 < 17.5 μg/m³). As the temperature increased, the incident RvI cases reduced to 4.84 cases/100 days (aRR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.35–0.45) when it was >25 °C with PM_2.5 < 17.5 μg/m³, or to 9.84/100 days (aRR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.77–0.93) when it was >25 °C with PM_2.5 > 42 μg/m³. The seasonal RvI is associated with frequent indoor personal contact among children in the cold months. The association with PM_2.5 could be an alternative assessment due to temperature inversion.

Molecular surveillance and genetic divergence of rotavirus A antigenic epitopes in Gabonese children with acute gastroenteritis

Background

Rotavirus A (RVA) causes acute gastroenteritis in children <5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we described the epidemiology and genetic diversity of RVA infecting Gabonese children and examined the antigenic variability of circulating strains in relation to available vaccine strains to maximize the public health benefits of introducing rotavirus vaccine through the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in Gabon.

Methods

Stool samples were collected consecutively between April 2018 and November 2019 from all hospitalized children <5 years with gastroenteritis and community controls without gastroenteritis. Children were tested for rotavirus A by quantitative RT-PCR and subsequently sequenced to identify circulating rotavirus A genotypes in the most vulnerable population. The VP7 and VP4 (VP8*) antigenic epitopes were mapped to homologs of vaccine strains to assess structural variability and potential impact on antigenicity.

Findings

Infections were mostly acquired during the dry season. Rotavirus A was detected in 98/177 (55%) hospitalized children with gastroenteritis and 14/67 (21%) of the control children. The most common RVA genotypes were G1 (18%), G3 (12%), G8 (18%), G9 (2%), G12 (25%), with G8 and G9 reported for the first time in Gabon. All were associated either with P[6] (31%) or P[8] (38%) genotypes. Several non-synonymous substitutions were observed in the antigenic epitopes of VP7 (positions 94 and 147) and VP8* (positions 89, 116, 146 and 150), which may modulate the elicited immune responses.

Interpretation

This study contributes to the epidemiological surveillance of rotavirus A required before the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in the EPI for Gabonese children.

Climate Change and Enteric Infections in the Canadian Arctic: Do We Know What’s on the Horizon?

The Canadian Arctic has a long history with diarrheal disease, including outbreaks of campylobacteriosis, giardiasis, and salmonellosis. Due to climate change, the Canadian Arctic is experiencing rapid environmental transformation, which not only threatens the livelihood of local Indigenous Peoples, but also supports the spread, frequency, and intensity of enteric pathogen outbreaks. Advances in diagnostic testing and detection have brought to attention the current burden of disease due to Cryptosporidium, Campylobacter, and Helicobacter pylori. As climate change is known to influence pathogen transmission (e.g., food and water), Arctic communities need support in developing prevention and surveillance strategies that are culturally appropriate. This review aims to provide an overview of how climate change is currently and is expected to impact enteric pathogens in the Canadian Arctic.

Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Mortality due to enteric infections is projected to increase because of global warming; however, the different temperature sensitivities of major enteric pathogens have not yet been considered in projections on a global scale. We aimed to project global temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality under various future scenarios of sociodemographic development and climate change.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we generated global projections in two stages. First, we forecasted baseline mortality from ten enteropathogens (non-typhoidal salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, cholera, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli, typhoid, rotavirus, norovirus, and Cryptosporidium) under several future sociodemographic development and health investment scenarios (ie, pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic). We then estimated the mortality change from baseline attributable to global warming using the product of projected annual temperature anomalies and pathogen-specific temperature sensitivities.

FINDINGS

We estimated that in the period 2080-95, the global mean number of temperature-attributable deaths due to enteric infections could be as low as 6599 (95% empirical CI 5441-7757) under the optimistic sociodemographic development and climate change scenario, or as high as 83 888 (67 760-100 015) under the pessimistic scenario. Most of the projected temperature-attributable deaths were from shigellosis, cryptosporidiosis, and typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Considerable reductions in the number of attributable deaths were from viral infections, such as rotaviral and noroviral enteritis, which resulted in net reductions in attributable enteric infection mortality under optimistic scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific.

INTERPRETATION

Temperature-attributable mortality could increase under warmer climate and unfavourable sociodemographic conditions. Mitigation policies for limiting global warming and sociodemographic development policies for low-income and middle-income countries might help reduce mortality from enteric infections in the future.

FUNDING

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan Science and Technology Agency, and Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness.

Longitudinal Effects of a Sanitation Intervention on Environmental Fecal Contamination in a Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial in Rural Bangladesh

Household latrine access generally is not associated with reduced fecal contamination in the environment, but its long-term effectiveness has not been measured. We conducted an environmental assessment nested within the WASH Benefits Bangladesh randomized controlled trial (NCT01590095). We quantified E. coli and fecal coliforms in samples of stored drinking water, child hands, mother hands, soil, and food among a random sample of households from the sanitation and control arms of the trial. Samples were collected during eight quarterly visits approximately 1-3.5 years after intervention initiation. Overall, there were no substantial differences in environmental fecal contamination between households enrolled in the sanitation and control arms. Statistically significant reductions were found in stored water and child hands after pooling across sampling rounds, but the effects were small and not consistent across rounds. In addition, we assessed potential effect modification of intervention effects by follow-up time, season, wealth, community-level latrine density and coverage, population density, and domestic animal ownership. While the intervention had statistically significant effects within some subgroups, there were no consistent patterns of effect modification. Our findings support a growing consensus that on-site latrines are insufficient to prevent fecal contamination in the rural household environment.

Enteric Viruses and Pepper Mild Mottle Virus Show Significant Correlation in Select Mid-Atlantic Agricultural Waters

Enteric viruses (EVs) are the largest contributors to foodborne illnesses and outbreaks globally. Their ability to persist in the environment, coupled with the challenges experienced in environmental monitoring, creates a critical aperture through which agricultural crops may become contaminated. This study involved a 17-month investigation of select human EVs and viral indicators in nontraditional irrigation water sources (surface and reclaimed waters) in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Real-time quantitative PCR was used for detection of Aichi virus, hepatitis A virus, and norovirus genotypes I and II (GI and GII, respectively). Pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), a common viral indicator of human fecal contamination, was also evaluated, along with atmospheric (air and water temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation 24 h, 7 days, and 14 days prior to sample collection) and physicochemical (dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity, and turbidity) data, to determine whether there were any associations between EVs and measured parameters. EVs were detected more frequently in reclaimed waters (32% [n = 22]) than in surface waters (4% [n = 49]), similar to PMMoV detection frequency in surface (33% [n = 42]) and reclaimed (67% [n = 21]) waters. Our data show a significant correlation between EV and PMMoV (R² = 0.628, P < 0.05) detection levels in reclaimed water samples but not in surface water samples (R² = 0.476, P = 0.78). Water salinity significantly affected the detection of both EVs and PMMoV (P < 0.05), as demonstrated by logistic regression analyses. These results provide relevant insights into the extent and degree of association between human (pathogenic) EVs and water quality data in Mid-Atlantic surface and reclaimed waters, as potential sources for agricultural irrigation. IMPORTANCE Microbiological analysis of agricultural waters is fundamental to ensure microbial food safety. The highly variable nature of nontraditional sources of irrigation water makes them particularly difficult to test for the presence of viruses. Multiple characteristics influence viral persistence in a water source, as well as affecting the recovery and detection methods that are employed. Testing for a suite of viruses in water samples is often too costly and labor-intensive, making identification of suitable indicators for viral pathogen contamination necessary. The results from this study address two critical data gaps, namely, EV prevalence in surface and reclaimed waters of the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States and subsequent evaluation of physicochemical and atmospheric parameters used to inform the potential for the use of indicators of viral contamination.

Etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of acute diarrhea in China

National-based prospective surveillance of all-age patients with acute diarrhea was conducted in China between 2009‒2018. Here we report the etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of the 152,792 eligible patients enrolled in this analysis. Rotavirus A and norovirus are the two leading viral pathogens detected in the patients, followed by adenovirus and astrovirus. Diarrheagenic Escherichia coli and nontyphoidal Salmonella are the two leading bacterial pathogens, followed by Shigella and Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Patients aged <5 years had higher overall positive rate of viral pathogens, while bacterial pathogens were more common in patients aged 18‒45 years. A joinpoint analysis revealed the age-specific positivity rate and how this varied for individual pathogens. Our findings fill crucial gaps of how the distributions of enteropathogens change across China in patients with diarrhea. This allows enhanced identification of the predominant diarrheal pathogen candidates for diagnosis in clinical practice and more targeted application of prevention and control measures.

A 21-year retrospective analysis of environmental impacts on paediatric acute gastroenteritis in an affluent setting

BACKGROUND

Extreme weather events happen more frequently along with global warming and they constitute a challenge for public health preparedness. For example, many investigations showed heavy rainfall was associated with an increased risk of acute gastroenteritis. In this study, we examined the associations between different meteorological factors and paediatric acute gastroenteritis in an affluent setting in China controlling for pollutant effects.

METHODS

Aggregated total weekly number of intestinal infection-related hospital admissions, and meteorological and air pollution data during 1998-2018 in Hong Kong were collected and analysed by a combination of quasi-Poisson generalized additive model and distributed lag nonlinear model. Study population was restricted to children under 5 years of age at the time of admission.

RESULTS

While heavy rainfall did not exhibit a statistically significant association with the risk of paediatric admission due to intestinal infections, low temperature and humidity extremes (both relative humidity and vapour pressure) did. Compared with the temperature at which the lowest risk was detected (i.e. 22.5 °C), the risk was 6.4% higher (95% confidence interval: 0.0% to 13.0% at 15.1 °C (i.e. the 5th percentile)). We also found the risk of paediatric admission was statistically significantly associated with an increase in the number of extreme cold days in a week over the study period.

CONCLUSION

Cold condition may have greater impact on disease transmission through increased stability and infectivity of enteric viruses in affluent settings like Hong Kong and thus resulted in an increased risk for paediatric acute gastroenteritis. On the contrary, an insignificant impact from heavy rainfall and high temperature may indicate a minor effect on disease transmission through bacterial growth in contaminated food and water. With the identified impacts of weather factors, extreme weather events are likely to distort the prevalence and seasonal pattern of diarrhoeal diseases in the future.

The performance of licensed rotavirus vaccines and the development of a new generation of rotavirus vaccines: a review

Rotavirus, which causes acute gastroenteritis and severe diarrhea, has posed a great threat to children worldwide over the last 30 y. Since no specific drugs and therapies against rotavirus are available, vaccination is considered the most effective method of decreasing the morbidity and mortality related to rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis. To date, six rotavirus vaccines have been developed and licensed by local governments. Notably, Rotarix™ and RotaTeq™ have been recommended as universal agents against rotavirus infection by the World Health Organization; however, lower efficacies were found in less-developed and developing regions with medium and high child mortality than well-developed ones with low child mortality. For now, two promising novel vaccines, Rotavac™ and RotaSiil™ were pre-qualified by the World Health Organization in 2018. Other rotavirus vaccines in the pipeline including neonatal strain (RV3-BB) and several non-replicating rotavirus vaccines with a parenteral delivery strategy are currently undergoing investigation, with the potential to improve the performance of, and eliminate the safety concerns associated with, previous live oral rotavirus vaccines. This paper reviews the important developments in rotavirus vaccines in the last 20 y and discusses problems and challenges that require investigation in the future.

Socio-demographic, not environmental, risk factors explain fine-scale spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease in Ifanadiana, rural Madagascar

Precision health mapping is a technique that uses spatial relationships between socio-ecological variables and disease to map the spatial distribution of disease, particularly for diseases with strong environmental signatures, such as diarrhoeal disease (DD). While some studies use GPS-tagged location data, other precision health mapping efforts rely heavily on data collected at coarse-spatial scales and may not produce operationally relevant predictions at fine enough spatio-temporal scales to inform local health programmes. We use two fine-scale health datasets collected in a rural district of Madagascar to identify socio-ecological covariates associated with childhood DD. We constructed generalized linear mixed models including socio-demographic, climatic and landcover variables and estimated variable importance via multi-model inference. We find that socio-demographic variables, and not environmental variables, are strong predictors of the spatial distribution of disease risk at both individual and commune-level (cluster of villages) spatial scales. Climatic variables predicted strong seasonality in DD, with the highest incidence in colder, drier months, but did not explain spatial patterns. Interestingly, the occurrence of a national holiday was highly predictive of increased DD incidence, highlighting the need for including cultural factors in modelling efforts. Our findings suggest that precision health mapping efforts that do not include socio-demographic covariates may have reduced explanatory power at the local scale. More research is needed to better define the set of conditions under which the application of precision health mapping can be operationally useful to local public health professionals.

Surveillance and Molecular Characterization of Rotavirus Strains Circulating in Odisha, India after Introduction of Rotavac

OBJECTIVE

To know the rotavirus burden associated with acute gastroenteritis along with circulating genotypes among under-five children and to find out possible associations with different demographic and clinical predictors in a tertiary care teaching hospital in Bhubaneswar, Odisha.

METHODS

A prospective acute gastroenteritis surveillance conducted from February 2016 to June 2019 at a tertiary care pediatric hospital in Bhubaneswar has enrolled 850 children under five years of age. The stool samples were tested for VP6 antigen of rotavirus by enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and hemi-nested multiplex PCR to find out VP7 (G type) and VP4 (P type) genes. The data was presented using mean ± SD, median (IQR) along with frequencies and percentages.

RESULTS

Rotavirus positivity was found in 246 children (28.9%) with male: female ratio of 3:1. An increasing trend of rotaviral diarrheal cases was seen during the winter months. History of vomiting for 2 d, age group of 12-23 mo, and fever were significantly associated with rotavirus diarrhea having odd ratios of 1.80 (95% CI, 1.48, and 1.69, respectively). Among the genotypes, G3 and P8 were found to be most common in the present study.

CONCLUSION

With the introduction of Rotavac in the state the overall rotaviral distribution has significantly changed. Children of 6-23 mo were the most affected age group in the study indicating the necessity of this vaccine in the early months of life.

Genetic Characteristics of Rotavirus Acute Gastroenteritis Among Hospitalized Children of Odisha in Eastern India

OBJECTIVE

To generate epidemiological data of rotavirus diarrhea among hospitalized children less than 5 y of age and to characterize the circulating rotavirus genotypes post introduction of rotavirus vaccine in Universal Immunization Program (UIP).

METHODS

This prospective study was conducted from April 2016 to July 2019 at Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel Post Graduate Institute of Paediatrics & SCB Medical College, Cuttack, Odisha among hospitalized children with acute gastroenteritis (AGE) under five years of age. Stool samples collected were tested for rotavirus by a commercial enzyme immunoassay and strains were characterized by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The data was analysed using a chi-square test with 95% confidence interval and risk ratio.

RESULTS

Rotavirus diarrhea was seen in 715 (36.4%) of the 1963 samples tested. The peak incidence of rotavirus diarrhea was during the winter season, i.e., from the month of December to February. Most of the infections were in children between 6 mo to 2 y of age, affecting boys and girls equally. The commonest genotypes were G3P[8] (50.34%) followed by G1P[8] (17.46%).

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the high prevalence of rotavirus diarrhea among children which emphasize the need for continued rotavirus vaccination. The changing patterns of genotype distribution stress the need for continued surveillance post introduction of vaccines to understand the effect of vaccines on strain evolution over a longer period and detect emergence of new genotypes.

Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005-2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

BACKGROUND

Global temperatures are projected to rise by ≥2 °C by the end of the century, with expected impacts on infectious disease incidence. Establishing the historic relationship between temperature and childhood diarrhea is important to inform future vulnerability under projected climate change scenarios.

METHODS

We compiled a national dataset from Peruvian government data sources, including weekly diarrhea surveillance records, annual administered doses of rotavirus vaccination, annual piped water access estimates, and daily temperature estimates. We used generalized estimating equations to quantify the association between ambient temperature and childhood (< 5 years) weekly reported clinic visits for diarrhea from 2005 to 2015 in 194 of 195 Peruvian provinces. We estimated the combined effect of the mean daily high temperature lagged 1, 2, and 3 weeks, in the eras before (2005-2009) and after (2010-2015) widespread rotavirus vaccination in Peru and examined the influence of varying levels of piped water access.

RESULTS

Nationally, an increase of 1 °C in the temperature across the three prior weeks was associated with a 3.8% higher rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.04]. Controlling for temperature, there was a significantly higher incidence rate of childhood diarrhea clinic visits during moderate/strong El Niño events (IRR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04) and during the dry season (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.03). Nationally, there was no evidence that the association between temperature and the childhood diarrhea rate changed between the pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine eras, or that higher levels of access to piped water mitigated the effects of temperature on the childhood diarrhea rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher temperatures and intensifying El Niño events that may result from climate change could increase clinic visits for childhood diarrhea in Peru. Findings underscore the importance of considering climate in assessments of childhood diarrhea in Peru and globally, and can inform regional vulnerability assessments and mitigation planning efforts.

Effect of meteorological factors on the activity of influenza in Chongqing, China, 2012-2019

Background

The effects of multiple meteorological factors on influenza activity remain unclear in Chongqing, the largest municipality in China. We aimed to fix this gap in this study.

Methods

Weekly meteorological data and influenza surveillance data in Chongqing were collected from 2012 to 2019. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) were conducted to estimate the effects of multiple meteorological factors on influenza activity.

Results

Inverted J-shaped nonlinear associations between mean temperature, absolute humidity, wind speed, sunshine and influenza activity were found. The relative risks (RRs) of influenza activity increased as weekly average mean temperature fell below 18.18°C, average absolute humidity fell below 12.66 g/m³, average wind speed fell below 1.55 m/s and average sunshine fell below 2.36 hours. Taking the median values as the references, lower temperature, lower absolute humidity and windless could significantly increase the risks of influenza activity and last for 4 weeks. A J-shaped nonlinear association was observed between relative humidity and influenza activity; the risk of influenza activity increased with rising relative humidity with 78.26% as the break point. Taking the median value as the reference, high relative humidity could increase the risk of influenza activity and last for 3 weeks. In addition, we found the relationship between aggregate rainfall and influenza activity could be described with a U-shaped curve. Rainfall effect has significantly higher RR than rainless effect.

Conclusions

Our study shows that multiple meteorological factors have strong associations with influenza activity in Chongqing, providing evidence for developing a meteorology-based early warning system for influenza to facilitate timely response to upsurge of influenza activity.

Epidemiological, molecular, and clinical features of rotavirus infections among pediatrics in Qatar

Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) remains a major cause of diarrhea in developing and developed countries. Rotavirus (RV) is a leading cause of severe pediatric diarrhea worldwide. Here we report on the prevalence of circulating genotypes in association with demographics and clinical manifestations outcomes in Qatar. A total of 231 RV-positive fecal samples were collected from children suffering from AGE during 3 years study period between June 2016 and June 2019. The age of the subjects ranged between 2 months and 14 years (median of 16 months). The VP4 and VP7 were amplified and sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using MEGA7.0. Pearson's chi-squared test was used to determine significant differences for comparisons of general categorical variables. RV infections were most common in children between 1 and 3 years of age (49%), followed by those < 1 year and > 3 years of age (33% and 28%, respectively). RV infections were more frequent in males than females, with a ratio of 1.4:1. RV infections occurred throughout the year, with a noticeable increase in summer (42.8%) and a drop in winter (20.1%). RV genotypes G3P[8] (30.8%), G2P[8] (12.3%), G4P[8] (11.7%), and G1P[8] (10.4%) were the common genotypes during the study period. The G3P[8] strain detected in our study revealed similarities to the equine-like G3P[8] (10.3%; 24/231) (KT988229.1), Wa-like genomic constellation (9%; 21/231) (MF563894.1), and DS-1-like strains (6.4%; 15/231) (LC386081.1). Based on the Vesikari score system, severe clinical illness including diarrhea and vomiting (average frequency: 4 to 5 times/day) was recorded for G3P[8] group, followed by G9P[8], G4P[8], and G1P[8]. Higher incidence for G3P[8], G2P[8], G4P[8], and G1P[8] were reported in Qatari subjects compared to other nationalities. The multinational status of a small country explains the wide diversity of circulating RV genotypes in Qatar. The highest prevalence and severe illnesses were recorded to G3P[8], which is different from other surrounding countries/global levels.

Non-linear effect of temperature variation on childhood rotavirus infection: A time series study from Kathmandu, Nepal

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to investigate the effects of temperature variability on rotavirus infections among children under 5 years of age in Kathmandu, Nepal. Findings may inform infection control planning, especially in relation to the role of environmental factors in the transmission of rotavirus infection.

METHODS

Generalized linear Poisson regression equations with distributed lag non-linear model were fitted to estimate the effect of temperature (maximum, mean and minimum) variation on weekly counts of rotavirus infections among children under 5 years of age living in Kathmandu, Nepal, over the study period (2013 to 2016). Seasonality and long-term effects were adjusted in the model using Fourier terms up to the seventh harmonic and a time function, respectively. We further adjusted the model for the confounding effects of rainfall and relative humidity.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 733 cases of rotavirus infection were recorded, with a mean of 3 cases per week. We detected an inverse non-linear association between rotavirus infection and average weekly mean temperature, with increased risk (RR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.08-2.15) at the lower quantile (10th percentile) and decreased risk (RR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.43-0.95) at the higher quantile (75th percentile). Similarly, we detected an increased risk [(RR: 1.93; 95% CI: 1.40-2.65) and (RR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.04-1.95)] of rotavirus infection for both maximum and minimum temperature at their lower quantile (10th percentile). We estimated that 344 (47.01%) cases of rotavirus diarrhoea among the children under 5 years of age were attributable to minimum temperature. The significant effect of temperature on rotavirus infection was not observed beyond lag zero week.

CONCLUSION

An inverse non-linear association was estimated between rotavirus incidence and all three indices of temperature, indicating a higher risk of infection during the cooler times of the year, and suggesting that transmission of rotavirus in Kathmandu, Nepal may be influenced by temperature.

Do seasonal microbiome changes affect infection susceptibility, contributing to seasonal disease outbreaks?

The aim of the present paper is to explore whether seasonal outbreaks of infectious diseases may be linked to changes in host microbiomes. This is a very important issue, because one way to have more control over seasonal outbreaks is to understand the factors that underlie them. In this paper, I will evaluate the relevance of the microbiome as one of such factors. The paper is based on two pillars of reasoning. Firstly, on the idea that microbiomes play an important role in their hosts' defence against infectious diseases. Secondly, on the idea that microbiomes are not stable, but change seasonally. These two ideas are combined in order to argue that seasonal changes in a given microbiome may influence the functionality of the host's immune system and consequently make it easier for infectious agents to infect the host at certain times of year. I will argue that, while this is only a theoretical possibility, certain studies may back up such claims. Furthermore, I will show that this does not necessarily contradict other hypotheses aimed at explaining seasonal outbreaks; in fact, it may even enhance them.

Epidemiology of rotavirus diarrhea among children less than 5 years hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis prior to rotavirus vaccine introduction in India

Background

Rotavirus is an important cause of severe diarrhea requiring hospitalization, accounting for approximately 78,000 deaths annually in Indian children below 5 years of age. We present epidemiological data on severe rotavirus disease collected during hospital-based surveillance in India before the introduction of the oral rotavirus vaccine into the national immunization schedule.

Methods

The National Rotavirus Surveillance Network was created involving 28 hospital sites and 11 laboratories across the four geographical regions of India. From September 2012 to August 2016 children less than 5 years of age hospitalized for diarrhea for at least 6 h, were enrolled. After recording clinical details, a stool sample was collected from each enrolled child, which was tested for rotavirus antigen using enzyme immunoassay (EIA). Nearly 2/3rd of EIA positive samples were genotyped using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction to identify the G and P types.

Results

Of the 21,421 children enrolled during the 4 years surveillance, 36.3% were positive for rotavirus. The eastern region had the highest proportion of rotavirus associated diarrhea (39.8%), while the southern region had the lowest (33.8%). Rotavirus detection rates were the highest in children aged 6–23 months (41.8%), and 24.7% in children aged < 6 months. Although rotavirus associated diarrhea was seen throughout the year, the highest positivity was documented between December and February across all the regions. The most common rotavirus genotype was G1P[8] (52.9%), followed by G9P4 (8.7%) and G2P4 (8.4%).

Conclusions

There is high burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis among Indian children below 5 years of age hospitalized for acute diarrhea thereby highlighting the need for introduction of rotavirus vaccine into the national immunization program and also for monitoring circulating genotypes.

The Impact of Climate Change on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Insights From Current Research and New Directions

Purpose of Review

Vaccine-preventable diseases remain a major public health concern globally. Climate is a key driver of the dynamics of many infectious diseases, including those that are vaccine preventable. Understanding the impact of climate change on vaccine-preventable diseases is, thus, an important public health research priority. Here, we summarize the recent literature and highlight promising directions for future research.

Recent Findings

Vaccine-preventable enteric diseases, such as cholera, exhibit sensitivity to precipitation and flooding events. The predicted increase in extreme weather events as a result of climate change could exacerbate outbreaks of these pathogens. For airborne pathogens, temperature and specific humidity have been shown to be the most important environmental drivers, although the impact of climate change on disease burden and dynamics remains unclear. Finally, the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases are dependent on both temperature and precipitation, and climate change is expected to alter the burden and geographic range of these diseases. However, understanding the interacting effects of multiple factors, including socioeconomic and ecological factors, on the vector-borne disease ecosystem will be a crucial step towards forecasting disease burden under climate change.

Summary

Recent work has demonstrated associations between climate and transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases. Translating these findings into forecasts under various climate change scenarios will require mechanistic frameworks that account for both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission, and the non-linear effects on disease burden. Future research should also pay greater attention to uncertainty in both the climate modeling processes as well as disease outcomes in the context of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Rotavirus A in Brazil: Molecular Epidemiology and Surveillance during 2018-2019

Rotavirus A (RVA) vaccines succeeded in lowering the burden of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) worldwide, especially preventing severe disease and mortality. In 2019, Brazil completed 13 years of RVA vaccine implementation (Rotarix™) within the National Immunization Program (NIP), and as reported elsewhere, the use of Rotarix™ in the country has reduced childhood mortality and morbidity due to AGE. Even though both marketed vaccines are widely distributed, the surveillance of RVA causing AGE and the monitoring of circulating genotypes are important tools to keep tracking the epidemiological scenario and vaccines impact. Thus, our study investigated RVA epidemiological features, viral load and G and P genotypes circulation in children and adults presenting AGE symptoms in eleven states from three out of five regions in Brazil. By using TaqMan^®-based one-step RT-qPCR, we investigated a total of 1536 stool samples collected from symptomatic inpatients, emergency department visits and outpatients from January 2018 to December 2019. G and P genotypes of RVA-positive samples were genetically characterized by multiplex RT-PCR or by nearly complete fragment sequencing. We detected RVA in 12% of samples, 10.5% in 2018 and 13.7% in 2019. A marked winter/spring seasonality was observed, especially in Southern Brazil. The most affected age group was children aged >24-60 months, with a positivity rate of 18.8% (p < 0.05). Evaluating shedding, we found a statistically lower RVA viral load in stool samples collected from children aged up to six months compared to the other age groups (p < 0.05). The genotype G3P[8] was the most prevalent during the two years (83.7% in 2018 and 65.5% in 2019), and nucleotide sequencing of some strains demonstrated that they belonged to the emergent equine-like G3P[8] genotype. The dominance of an emergent genotype causing AGE reinforces the need for continuous epidemiological surveillance to assess the impact of mass RVA immunization as well as to monitor the emergence of novel genotypes.

Detection, Quantification, and Microbial Risk Assessment of Group A Rotavirus in Rivers from Uruguay

The aim of this study was to detect, quantify, and assess the risk of infection and illness for Group A Rotavirus (RVA) in the watersheds of the Santa Lucia and Uruguay rivers in Uruguay. Monthly sampling was carried out for one year in six sites in the watershed of the Santa Lucía River and four in the Uruguay River. All the collection sites are used for recreational activities. Viral concentration was performed with the adsorption-elution method, and detection and quantification of RVA was carried out by TaqMan quantitative PCR (qPCR). Quantitative microbial risk assessment was applied to estimate the daily and annual risk of RVA infection, as well as the daily risk of illness considering direct exposure through recreational activity. RVA was detected in 42% (20/48) of the analyzed samples in the Uruguay River and 40% (29/72) in the Santa Lucía River. The virus was present in all the analyzed points in both watersheds. A pattern of seasonality, characterized by a higher detection frequency of the virus during coldest month of the year, was observed in both basins. The mean concentration for RVA was 1.3 × 10⁵ genomic copies/L. The microbiological risk assessment shows that Santa Lucía watershed presented the highest daily risk of infection (6.41E-01) and illness (3.20E-01) estimated for the point downstream of Florida City; meanwhile for Uruguay River, the highest probabilities of infection (6.82E-01) and illness (3.41E-01) were estimated for the collection site for drinking water intake in Salto city. These results suggest that RVA contamination of these important rivers negatively impact on their microbiological quality since they are used for recreation and drinking water intake, demonstrating that the disposal of waste from cities located in their riverside confers a constant threat of infection for the general population, especially for children.