Epigenesis for epidemiologists: does evo-devo have implications for population health research and practice?

Lifestyle factors and subacromial impingement syndrome of the shoulder: potential associations in finnish participants

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence has indicated the associations between subacromial impingement syndrome (SIS) of shoulder and lifestyle factors. However, whether unhealthy lifestyle factors causally increase SIS risk is not determined. This study aims to evaluate whether lifestyle factors are the risk factors of SIS.

METHODS

A two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study was designed to evaluate the effect of 11 lifestyle factors on SIS risk. Causality was determined using the inverse-variance weighted method to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and establish a 95% confidence interval (CI). Weighted median method, MR-Egger method and MR-PRESSO method were conducted as sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Four lifestyle factors were identified causally associated with an increased risk of SIS using the IVW method: insomnia (OR: 1.66 95% CI 1.38, 2.00; P = 8.86 × 10- 8), short sleep duration (OR: 1.53 95% CI 1.14, 2.05: P = 0.0043), mobile phone usage (OR: 4.65, 95% CI 1.59, 13.64; P = 0.0051), and heavy manual or physical work (OR: 4.24, 95% CI 2.17, 8.26; P = 2.20 × 10- 5). Another causal but weak association was found between smoking initiation on SIS (OR: 1.17, 95% CI 1.01, 1.35; P = 3.50 × 10- 2). Alcohol, coffee consumption, physical activity, sedentary behavior, sleep duration and computer usage were not found to be causally associated with an increased risk of SIS. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the MR estimates were robust and no heterogeneity and pleiotropy were identified in these MR analyses.

CONCLUSION

Sleep habits and shoulder usage were identified as causal factors for SIS. This evidence supports the development of strategies aimed at improving sleep behaviors and optimizing shoulder usage patterns as effective measures to prevent SIS.

Time-varying and tissue-dependent effects of adiposity on leptin levels: A Mendelian randomization study

Background

Findings from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies are conventionally interpreted as lifelong effects, which typically do not provide insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying the effect of an exposure on an outcome. In this study, we apply two recently developed MR approaches (known as 'lifecourse' and 'tissue-partitioned' MR) to investigate lifestage-specific effects and tissues of action in the relationship between adiposity and circulating leptin levels.

Methods

Genetic instruments for childhood and adult adiposity were incorporated into a multivariable MR (MVMR) framework to estimate lifestage-specific effects on leptin levels measured during early life (mean age: 10 y) in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children and in adulthood (mean age: 55 y) using summary-level data from the deCODE Health study. This was followed by partitioning body mass index (BMI) instruments into those whose effects are putatively mediated by gene expression in either subcutaneous adipose or brain tissues, followed by using MVMR to simultaneously estimate their separate effects on childhood and adult leptin levels.

Results

There was strong evidence that childhood adiposity has a direct effect on leptin levels at age 10 y in the lifecourse (β = 1.10 SD change in leptin levels, 95% CI = 0.90-1.30, p=6 × 10-28), whereas evidence of an indirect effect was found on adulthood leptin along the causal pathway involving adulthood body size (β = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.62-0.86, p=1 × 10-33). Tissue-partitioned MR analyses provided evidence to suggest that BMI exerts its effect on leptin levels during both childhood and adulthood via brain tissue-mediated pathways (β = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.22-1.36, p=6 × 10-3 and β = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.32-0.69, p=1 × 10-7, respectively).

Conclusions

Our findings demonstrate the use of lifecourse MR to disentangle direct and indirect effects of early-life exposures on time-varying complex outcomes. Furthermore, by integrating tissue-specific data, we highlight the etiological importance of appetite regulation in the effect of adiposity on leptin levels.

Funding

This work was supported by the Integrative Epidemiology Unit, which receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council and the University of Bristol (MC_UU_00011/1).

Guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations: update for summer 2023

This paper provides guidelines for performing Mendelian randomization investigations. It is aimed at practitioners seeking to undertake analyses and write up their findings, and at journal editors and reviewers seeking to assess Mendelian randomization manuscripts. The guidelines are divided into ten sections: motivation and scope, data sources, choice of genetic variants, variant harmonization, primary analysis, supplementary and sensitivity analyses (one section on robust statistical methods and one on other approaches), extensions and additional analyses, data presentation, and interpretation. These guidelines will be updated based on feedback from the community and advances in the field. Updates will be made periodically as needed, and at least every 24 months.

Tools for assessing quality and risk of bias in Mendelian randomization studies: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The use of Mendelian randomization (MR) in epidemiology has increased considerably in recent years, with a subsequent increase in systematic reviews of MR studies. We conducted a systematic review of tools designed for assessing risk of bias and/or quality of evidence in MR studies and a review of systematic reviews of MR studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Web of Science, preprints servers and Google Scholar for articles containing tools for assessing, conducting and/or reporting MR studies. We also searched for systematic reviews and protocols of systematic reviews of MR studies. From eligible articles we collected data on tool characteristics and content, as well as details of narrative description of bias assessment.

RESULTS

Our searches retrieved 2464 records to screen, from which 14 tools, 35 systematic reviews and 38 protocols were included in our review. Seven tools were designed for assessing risk of bias/quality of evidence in MR studies and evaluation of their content revealed that all seven tools addressed the three core assumptions of instrumental variable analysis, violation of which can potentially introduce bias in MR analysis estimates.

CONCLUSION

We present an overview of tools and methods to assess risk of bias/quality of evidence in MR analysis. Issues commonly addressed relate to the three standard assumptions of instrumental variables analyses, the choice of genetic instrument(s) and features of the population(s) from which the data are collected (particularly in two-sample MR), in addition to more traditional non-MR-specific epidemiological biases. The identified tools should be tested and validated for general use before recommendations can be made on their widespread use. Our findings should raise awareness about the importance of bias related to MR analysis and provide information that is useful for assessment of MR studies in the context of systematic reviews.

A Guide for Understanding and Designing Mendelian Randomization Studies in the Musculoskeletal Field

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an increasingly popular component of an epidemiologist's toolkit, used to provide evidence of a causal effect of one trait (an exposure, eg, body mass index [BMI]) on an outcome trait or disease (eg, osteoarthritis). Identifying these effects is important for understanding disease etiology and potentially identifying targets for therapeutic intervention. MR uses genetic variants as instrumental variables for the exposure, which should not be influenced by the outcome or confounding variables, overcoming key limitations of traditional epidemiological analyses. For MR to generate a valid estimate of effect, key assumptions must be met. In recent years, there has been a rapid rise in MR methods that aim to test, or are robust to violations of, these assumptions. In this review, we provide an overview of MR for a non-expert audience, including an explanation of these key assumptions and how they are often tested, to aid a better reading and understanding of the MR literature. We highlight some of these new methods and how they can be useful for specific methodological challenges in the musculoskeletal field, including for conditions or traits that share underlying biological pathways, such as bone and joint disease. © 2022 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Parental inflammatory bowel disease and autism in children

Evidence linking parental inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with autism in children is inconclusive. We conducted four complementary studies to investigate associations between parental IBD and autism in children, and elucidated their underlying etiology. Conducting a nationwide population-based cohort study using Swedish registers, we found evidence of associations between parental diagnoses of IBD and autism in children. Polygenic risk score analyses of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children suggested associations between maternal genetic liability to IBD and autistic traits in children. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses provided evidence of a potential causal effect of genetic liability to IBD, especially ulcerative colitis, on autism. Linkage disequilibrium score regression did not indicate a genetic correlation between IBD and autism. Triangulating evidence from these four complementary approaches, we found evidence of a potential causal link between parental, particularly maternal, IBD and autism in children. Perinatal immune dysregulation, micronutrient malabsorption and anemia may be implicated.

Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between nutrition and cancer

Dietary factors are assumed to play an important role in cancer risk, apparent in consensus recommendations for cancer prevention that promote nutritional changes. However, the evidence in this field has been generated predominantly through observational studies, which may result in biased effect estimates because of confounding, exposure misclassification, and reverse causality. With major geographical differences and rapid changes in cancer incidence over time, it is crucial to establish which of the observational associations reflect causality and to identify novel risk factors as these may be modified to prevent the onset of cancer and reduce its progression. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses the special properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference regarding potentially modifiable exposures and disease risk. MR can be implemented through instrumental variable (IV) analysis and, when robustly performed, is generally less prone to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error than conventional observational methods and has different sources of bias (discussed in detail below). It is increasingly used to facilitate causal inference in epidemiology and provides an opportunity to explore the effects of nutritional exposures on cancer incidence and progression in a cost-effective and timely manner. Here, we introduce the concept of MR and discuss its current application in understanding the impact of nutritional factors (e.g., any measure of diet and nutritional intake, circulating biomarkers, patterns, preference or behaviour) on cancer aetiology and, thus, opportunities for MR to contribute to the development of nutritional recommendations and policies for cancer prevention. We provide applied examples of MR studies examining the role of nutritional factors in cancer to illustrate how this method can be used to help prioritise or deprioritise the evaluation of specific nutritional factors as intervention targets in randomised controlled trials. We describe possible biases when using MR, and methodological developments aimed at investigating and potentially overcoming these biases when present. Lastly, we consider the use of MR in identifying causally relevant nutritional risk factors for various cancers in different regions across the world, given notable geographical differences in some cancers. We also discuss how MR results could be translated into further research and policy. We conclude that findings from MR studies, which corroborate those from other well-conducted studies with different and orthogonal biases, are poised to substantially improve our understanding of nutritional influences on cancer. For such corroboration, there is a requirement for an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to investigate risk factors for cancer incidence and progression.

Deciphering how early life adiposity influences breast cancer risk using Mendelian randomization

Studies suggest that adiposity in childhood may reduce the risk of breast cancer in later life. The biological mechanism underlying this effect is unclear but is likely to be independent of body size in adulthood. Using a Mendelian randomization framework, we investigate 18 hypothesised mediators of the protective effect of childhood adiposity on later-life breast cancer, including hormonal, reproductive, physical, and glycaemic traits. Our results indicate that, while most of the hypothesised mediators are affected by childhood adiposity, only IGF-1 (OR: 1.08 [1.03: 1.15]), testosterone (total/free/bioavailable ~ OR: 1.12 [1.05: 1.20]), age at menopause (OR: 1.05 [1.03: 1.07]), and age at menarche (OR: 0.92 [0.86: 0.99], direct effect) influence breast cancer risk. However, multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis shows that the protective effect of childhood body size remains unaffected when accounting for these traits (ORs: 0.59-0.67). This suggests that none of the investigated potential mediators strongly contribute to the protective effect of childhood adiposity on breast cancer risk individually. It is plausible, however, that several related traits could collectively mediate the effect when analysed together, and this work provides a compelling foundation for investigating other mediating pathways in future studies.

Mendelian randomization

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a term that applies to the use of genetic variation to address causal questions about how modifiable exposures influence different outcomes. The principles of MR are based on Mendel's laws of inheritance and instrumental variable estimation methods, which enable the inference of causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. In this Primer, we outline the principles of MR, the instrumental variable conditions underlying MR estimation and some of the methods used for estimation. We go on to discuss how the assumptions underlying an MR study can be assessed and give methods of estimation that are robust to certain violations of these assumptions. We give examples of a range of studies in which MR has been applied, the limitations of current methods of analysis and the outlook for MR in the future. The difference between the assumptions required for MR analysis and other forms of non-interventional epidemiological studies means that MR can be used as part of a triangulation across multiple sources of evidence for causal inference.

Is genetic liability to ADHD and ASD causally linked to educational attainment?

BACKGROUND

The association patterns of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) with educational attainment (EA) are complex; children with ADHD and ASD are at risk of poor academic outcomes, and parental EA has been associated with risk of ADHD/ASD in the offspring. Little is known on the causal links between ADHD, ASD, EA and the potential contribution of cognitive ability.

METHODS

Using the latest genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary data on ADHD, ASD and EA, we applied two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess the effects of genetic liability to ADHD and ASD on EA. Reverse direction analyses were additionally performed. Multivariable MR was performed to estimate any effects independent of cognitive ability.

RESULTS

Genetic liability to ADHD had a negative effect on EA, independently of cognitive ability (MVMRIVW: -1.7 months of education per doubling of genetic liability to ADHD; 95% CI: -2.8 to -0.7), whereas genetic liability to ASD a positive effect (MVMRIVW: 30 days per doubling of the genetic liability to ASD; 95% CI: 2 to 53). Reverse direction analyses suggested that genetic liability to higher EA had an effect on lower risk of ADHD, independently of cognitive ability (MVMRIVWOR: 0.33 per SD increase; 95% CI: 0.26 to 0.43) and increased risk of ASD (MRIVWOR: 1.51 per SD increase; 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.77), which was partly explained by cognitive ability (MVMRIVWOR per SD increase: 1.24; 95%CI: 0.96 to 1.60).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic liability to ADHD and ASD is likely to affect educational attainment, independently of underlying cognitive ability.

Mendelian Randomization: Concepts and Scope

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a method of studying the causal effects of modifiable exposures (i.e., potential risk factors) on health, social, and economic outcomes using genetic variants associated with the specific exposures of interest. MR provides a more robust understanding of the influence of these exposures on outcomes because germline genetic variants are randomly inherited from parents to offspring and, as a result, should not be related to potential confounding factors that influence exposure-outcome associations. The genetic variant can therefore be used as a tool to link the proposed risk factor and outcome, and to estimate this effect with less confounding and bias than conventional epidemiological approaches. We describe the scope of MR, highlighting the range of applications being made possible as genetic data sets and resources become larger and more freely available. We outline the MR approach in detail, covering concepts, assumptions, and estimation methods. We cover some common misconceptions, provide strategies for overcoming violation of assumptions, and discuss future prospects for extending the clinical applicability, methodological innovations, robustness, and generalizability of MR findings.

Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology Using Mendelian Randomization: The STROBE-MR Statement

Importance

Mendelian randomization (MR) studies use genetic variation associated with modifiable exposures to assess their possible causal relationship with outcomes and aim to reduce potential bias from confounding and reverse causation.

Objective

To develop the STROBE-MR Statement as a stand-alone extension to the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) guideline for the reporting of MR studies.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The development of the STROBE-MR Statement followed the Enhancing the Quality and Transparency of Health Research (EQUATOR) framework guidance and used the STROBE Statement as a starting point to draft a checklist tailored to MR studies. The project was initiated in 2018 by reviewing the literature on the reporting of instrumental variable and MR studies. A group of 17 experts, including MR methodologists, MR study design users, developers of previous reporting guidelines, and journal editors, participated in a workshop in May 2019 to define the scope of the Statement and draft the checklist. The draft checklist was published as a preprint in July 2019 and discussed on the preprint platform, in social media, and at the 4th Mendelian Randomization Conference. The checklist was then revised based on comments, further refined through 2020, and finalized in July 2021.

Findings

The STROBE-MR checklist is organized into 6 sections (Title and Abstract, Introduction, Methods, Results, Discussion, and Other Information) and includes 20 main items and 30 subitems. It covers both 1-sample and 2-sample MR studies that assess 1 or multiple exposures and outcomes, and addresses MR studies that follow a genome-wide association study and are reported in the same article. The checklist asks authors to justify why MR is a helpful method to address the study question and state prespecified causal hypotheses. The measurement, quality, and selection of genetic variants must be described and attempts to assess validity of MR-specific assumptions should be well reported. An item on data sharing includes reporting when the data and statistical code required to replicate the analyses can be accessed.

Conclusions and Relevance

STROBE-MR provides guidelines for reporting MR studies. Improved reporting of these studies could facilitate their evaluation by editors, peer reviewers, researchers, clinicians, and other readers, and enhance the interpretation of their results.

Interpreting Mendelian-randomization estimates of the effects of categorical exposures such as disease status and educational attainment

Background

Mendelian randomization has been previously used to estimate the effects of binary and ordinal categorical exposures—e.g. Type 2 diabetes or educational attainment defined by qualification—on outcomes. Binary and categorical phenotypes can be modelled in terms of liability—an underlying latent continuous variable with liability thresholds separating individuals into categories. Genetic variants influence an individual’s categorical exposure via their effects on liability, thus Mendelian-randomization analyses with categorical exposures will capture effects of liability that act independently of exposure category.

Methods and results

We discuss how groups in which the categorical exposure is invariant can be used to detect liability effects acting independently of exposure category. For example, associations between an adult educational-attainment polygenic score (PGS) and body mass index measured before the minimum school leaving age (e.g. age 10 years), cannot indicate the effects of years in full-time education on this outcome. Using UK Biobank data, we show that a higher educational-attainment PGS is strongly associated with lower smoking initiation and higher odds of glasses use at age 15 years. These associations were replicated in sibling models. An orthogonal approach using the raising of the school leaving age (ROSLA) policy change found that individuals who chose to remain in education to age 16 years before the reform likely had higher liability to educational attainment than those who were compelled to remain in education to age 16 years after the reform, and had higher income, lower pack-years of smoking, higher odds of glasses use and lower deprivation in adulthood. These results suggest that liability to educational attainment is associated with health and social outcomes independently of years in full-time education.

Conclusions

Mendelian-randomization studies with non-continuous exposures should be interpreted in terms of liability, which may affect the outcome via changes in exposure category and/or independently.

Causal inference for heritable phenotypic risk factors using heterogeneous genetic instruments

Over a decade of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the finding of extreme polygenicity of complex traits. The phenomenon that "all genes affect every complex trait" complicates Mendelian Randomization (MR) studies, where natural genetic variations are used as instruments to infer the causal effect of heritable risk factors. We reexamine the assumptions of existing MR methods and show how they need to be clarified to allow for pervasive horizontal pleiotropy and heterogeneous effect sizes. We propose a comprehensive framework GRAPPLE to analyze the causal effect of target risk factors with heterogeneous genetic instruments and identify possible pleiotropic patterns from data. By using GWAS summary statistics, GRAPPLE can efficiently use both strong and weak genetic instruments, detect the existence of multiple pleiotropic pathways, determine the causal direction and perform multivariable MR to adjust for confounding risk factors. With GRAPPLE, we analyze the effect of blood lipids, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure on 25 disease outcomes, gaining new information on their causal relationships and potential pleiotropic pathways involved.

Association of the T130I Variant of the HNF4A Gene with Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components in Mexican Children

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a cluster of risk factors, leads to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The second leading cause of mortality in Mexico is T2D. Genetic factors participate in the pathogenesis of MetS. The HNFA gene encodes a transcription factor that plays a crucial role in energy homeostasis by regulating the metabolism of glucose and lipids. This study aimed to investigate the association of the T130I variant of the HNF4A gene in Mexican children with MetS and its constituent components. Methods: The study was performed in 477 children from elementary schools. MetS was classified according to the de Ferranti definition. Biochemical parameters were measured and genotyping was performed. Logistic regression under a dominant genetic model was used to analyze the association of the T130I variant of the HNF4A gene with MetS and with its components separately. Results: The prevalence of MetS was 25.4%, and 18.9% in children who presented insulin resistance. Interestingly, this is the first time that a significant association between the T130I variant of the HNF4A gene and MetS has been reported [odds ratios (OR) = 2.31; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-4.83; P = 0.026]. Moreover, carriers of the risk allele show higher abdominal obesity (OR = 1.20; 95% CI 1.09-4.50; P = 0.029). These findings highlight the active role of genetic variants in the pathogenesis of MetS in Mexican children. Conclusions: The high prevalence of children with MetS and insulin resistance places this population at an elevated risk of early CVD and T2D. The Clinical Trial Registration Number is HJM2315/14C.

Puberty and the Evolution of Developmental Science

In recent decades, theoretical and methodological advances have operated synergistically to advance understanding of puberty and prompt increasingly comprehensive models that engage with the temporal, psychosocial, and biological dimensions of this maturational milepost. This integrative overview discusses these theoretical and methodological advances and their implications for research and intervention to promote human development in the context of changing maturational schedules and massive ongoing social transformations.

Did family size affect differences in body height in non-urbanized societies? Evidence from the Lemko community in Poland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of economic changes in the Polish territories under Austrian partition at the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries on the trend in adult body height, and to examine the effect of number of children in a family, as a socioeconomic factor, on the differences in heights of males and females. Data collected in a 1939 survey for a group of 350 Lemkos living in Polish lands under the Austrian partition were obtained from archive material. Individual data were obtained for body height and number of siblings, to calculate family size. Linear regression analysis confirmed an increase in body height in males by about 1.2 cm per decade over the period 1860 to 1922. The number of children in a family did not appear to influence the mean body height of men and women. The observed positive mean body height trend probably resulted from the improvement in the economic conditions in the Austrian sector over the survey period.

Epigenetics Changes Nothing: What a New Scientific Field Does and Does Not Mean for Ethics and Social Justice

Recently, ethicists have posited that consideration of epigenetic mechanisms presents novel challenges to concepts of justice and equality of opportunity, such as elevating the importance of environments in bioethics and providing a counterpoint to gross genetic determinism. We argue that new findings in epigenetic sciences, including those regarding intergenerational health effects, do not necessitate reconceptualization of theories of justice or the environment. To the contrary, such claims reflect a flawed understanding of epigenetics and its relation to genetics that may unintentionally undermine appeals to social justice. We provide a brief summary of epigenetic sciences, focusing on phenomena central to the current ethical discourse. We identify three fallacious modes of reasoning arising from the emergent literature on the ethical and policy implications of epigenetics, including mischaracterization, undue extrapolation, and exceptionalism. We end by discussing how these issues may work against mobilizing health equity policies and present a more modest claim regarding the value of new epigenetic knowledge to health justice by setting this discourse within the context of known themes in biomedical ethics and health policy.

Adult height, nutrition, and population health

In this review, the potential causes and consequences of adult height, a measure of cumulative net nutrition, in modern populations are summarized. The mechanisms linking adult height and health are examined, with a focus on the role of potential confounders. Evidence across studies indicates that short adult height (reflecting growth retardation) in low- and middle-income countries is driven by environmental conditions, especially net nutrition during early years. Some of the associations of height with health and social outcomes potentially reflect the association between these environmental factors and such outcomes. These conditions are manifested in the substantial differences in adult height that exist between and within countries and over time. This review suggests that adult height is a useful marker of variation in cumulative net nutrition, biological deprivation, and standard of living between and within populations and should be routinely measured. Linkages between adult height and health, within and across generations, suggest that adult height may be a potential tool for monitoring health conditions and that programs focused on offspring outcomes may consider maternal height as a potentially important influence.

Childhood Disadvantage and Health Problems in Middle and Later Life: Early Imprints on Physical Health?

Drawing from cumulative inequality theory, we examine the relationship between childhood disadvantage and health problems in adulthood. Using two waves of data from Midlife Development in the United States, we investigate whether childhood disadvantage is associated with adult disadvantage, including fewer social resources, and the effect of lifelong disadvantage on health problems measured at the baseline survey and a 10-year follow-up. Findings reveal that childhood socioeconomic disadvantage and frequent abuse by parents are generally associated with fewer adult social resources and more lifestyle risks. Health problems, in turn, are affected by childhood disadvantage and by lifestyle risks, especially smoking and obesity. Not only was early disadvantage related to health problems at the baseline survey, but childhood socioeconomic disadvantage and frequent abuse also were related to the development of new health problems at the follow-up survey. These findings reveal the imprint of early disadvantage on health decades later and suggest greater attention to resources, even during midlife, can interrupt the chain of risks.

Causal Inference in Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) Research

Studies of the developmental origins of health and disease (DOHaD) often rely on prospective observational data, from which associations between developmental exposures and outcomes in later life can be identified. Typically, conventional statistical methods are used in an attempt to mitigate problems inherent in observational data, such as confounding and reverse causality, but these have serious limitations. In this review, we discuss a variety of methods that are increasingly being used in observational epidemiological studies to help strengthen causal inference. These methods include negative controls, cross-contextual designs, instrumental variables (including Mendelian randomization), family-based studies, and natural experiments. Applications within the DOHaD framework, and in relation to behavioral, psychiatric, and psychological domains, are considered, and the considerable potential for expanding the use of these methods is outlined.

From stem cells to the law courts: DNA methylation, the forensic epigenome and the possibility of a biosocial archive

The growth in epigenetics continues to attract considerable cross-disciplinary interest, apparently representing an opportunity to move beyond genomics towards the goal of understanding phenotypic variability from molecular through organismal to the societal level. The epigenome may also harbour useful information about life-time exposures (measured or unmeasured) irrespective of their influence on health or disease, creating the potential for a person-specific biosocial archive . Furthermore such data may prove of use in providing identifying information, providing the possibility of a future forensic epigenome . The mechanisms involved in ensuring that environmentally induced epigenetic changes perpetuate across the life course remain unclear. Here we propose a potential role of adult stem cells in maintaining epigenetic states provides a useful basis for formulating such epidemiologically-relevant concepts.

Prenatal exposure to maternal smoking and offspring DNA methylation across the lifecourse: findings from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)

Maternal smoking during pregnancy has been found to influence newborn DNA methylation in genes involved in fundamental developmental processes. It is pertinent to understand the degree to which the offspring methylome is sensitive to the intensity and duration of prenatal smoking. An investigation of the persistence of offspring methylation associated with maternal smoking and the relative roles of the intrauterine and postnatal environment is also warranted. In the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, we investigated associations between prenatal exposure to maternal smoking and offspring DNA methylation at multiple time points in approximately 800 mother–offspring pairs. In cord blood, methylation at 15 CpG sites in seven gene regions (AHRR, MYO1G, GFI1, CYP1A1, CNTNAP2, KLF13 and ATP9A) was associated with maternal smoking, and a dose-dependent response was observed in relation to smoking duration and intensity. Longitudinal analysis of blood DNA methylation in serial samples at birth, age 7 and 17 years demonstrated that some CpG sites showed reversibility of methylation (GFI1, KLF13 and ATP9A), whereas others showed persistently perturbed patterns (AHRR, MYO1G, CYP1A1 and CNTNAP2). Of those showing persistence, we explored the effect of postnatal smoke exposure and found that the major contribution to altered methylation was attributed to a critical window of in utero exposure. A comparison of paternal and maternal smoking and offspring methylation showed consistently stronger maternal associations, providing further evidence for causal intrauterine mechanisms. These findings emphasize the sensitivity of the methylome to maternal smoking during early development and the long-term impact of such exposure.

Understanding variation in disease risk: the elusive concept of frailty

The concept of frailty plays a major role in the statistical field of survival analysis. Frailty variation refers to differences in risk between individuals which go beyond known or measured risk factors. In other words, frailty variation is unobserved heterogeneity. Although understanding frailty is of interest in its own right, the literature on survival analysis has demonstrated that existence of frailty variation can lead to surprising artefacts in statistical estimation that are important to examine. We present literature that demonstrates the presence and significance of frailty variation between individuals. We discuss the practical content of frailty variation, and show the link between frailty and biological concepts like (epi)genetics and heterogeneity in disease risk. There are numerous suggestions in the literature that a good deal of this variation may be due to randomness, in addition to genetic and/or environmental factors. Heterogeneity often manifests itself as clustering of cases in families more than would be expected by chance. We emphasize that apparently moderate familial relative risks can only be explained by strong underlying variation in disease risk between families and individuals. Finally, we highlight the potential impact of frailty variation in the interpretation of standard epidemiological measures such as hazard and incidence rates.

Approaches for drawing causal inferences from epidemiological birth cohorts: a review

Large-scale population-based birth cohorts, which recruit women during pregnancy or at birth and follow up their offspring through infancy and into childhood and adolescence, provide the opportunity to monitor and model early life exposures in relation to developmental characteristics and later life outcomes. However, due to confounding and other limitations, identification of causal risk factors has proved challenging and published findings are often not reproducible. A suite of methods has been developed in recent years to minimise problems afflicting observational epidemiology, to strengthen causal inference and to provide greater insights into modifiable intra-uterine and early life risk factors. The aim of this review is to describe these causal inference methods and to suggest how they may be applied in the context of birth cohorts and extended along with the development of birth cohort consortia and expansion of "omic" technologies.

Ageing across the Tasman Sea: the demographics and health of older adults in Australia and New Zealand

OBJECTIVE

The demographic and health aspects of ageing populations in Australia and New Zealand (NZ) are described. These data are relevant to compare impacts of policy and context in each country.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of international (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations and World Health Organization) and domestic population and health data.

RESULTS

Both countries will experience a greater than 80% increase in the population aged 60-plus years between 2013 and 2050. The increase in the 80-plus population will be 200% or higher, resulting in 2.8 million Australians and more than 510,000 New Zealanders in this age group by 2050. The speed of ageing in both countries is higher than the average rate of increase in developed countries. Average life expectancy at birth and age 60 is higher in Australia than NZ, with the differences increasing slightly by 2050, and gaps between men and women consistently smaller in NZ than in Australia. However, a higher proportion of older Australians report living with a disability (53%) than older New Zealanders (45%).

CONCLUSIONS

Australia and NZ are well aged in the context of a youthful Oceania region, with more similarities than differences between the countries.

IMPLICATIONS

Both countries need to continue to monitor health trends, unravel the major population attributable risks, and identify preventative and other interventions that can stimulate and support declines in disability in older populations in the future, particularly for non-indigenous older persons.

Lifecourse health development: past, present and future

During the latter half of the twentieth century, an explosion of research elucidated a growing number of causes of disease and contributors to health. Biopsychosocial models that accounted for the wide range of factors influencing health began to replace outmoded and overly simplified biomedical models of disease causation. More recently, models of lifecourse health development (LCHD) have synthesized research from biological, behavioral and social science disciplines, defined health development as a dynamic process that begins before conception and continues throughout the lifespan, and paved the way for the creation of novel strategies aimed at optimization of individual and population health trajectories. As rapid advances in epigenetics and biological systems research continue to inform and refine LCHD models, our healthcare delivery system has struggled to keep pace, and the gulf between knowledge and practice has widened. This paper attempts to chart the evolution of the LCHD framework, and illustrate its potential to transform how the MCH system addresses social, psychological, biological, and genetic influences on health, eliminates health disparities, reduces chronic illness, and contains healthcare costs. The LCHD approach can serve to highlight the foundational importance of MCH, moving it from the margins of national debate to the forefront of healthcare reform efforts. The paper concludes with suggestions for innovations that could accelerate the translation of health development principles into MCH practice.

Comparison of father-offspring and mother-offspring associations of cardiovascular risk factors: family linkage within the population-based HUNT Study, Norway

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular risk factors are transmitted from parents to offspring; however, the relative contributions of fathers and mothers remain unclear. If maternal exposures during pregnancy influence offspring through the intrauterine environment, associations between mothers and offspring are expected to be stronger than between fathers and offspring. In this family linkage study we compared father-offspring and mother-offspring associations of several cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 36,528 father-mother-offspring trios who participated at one or more surveys of the HUNT Study, Norway in 1984-86, 1995-97 and 2006-08. Parent-offspring associations were assessed using unstandardized and standardized residuals from linear regression analysis, and possible non-paternity was accounted for in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Age- and sex-adjusted parent-offspring associations for anthropometric factors, blood pressure, blood lipids, blood glucose and resting heart rate were largely similar between fathers and mothers. Use of standardized values and analyses adjusted for non-paternity further emphasized this similarity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found largely similar father-offspring and mother-offspring associations across all cardiovascular risk factors under study, arguing against strong maternal effects transmitted through intrauterine mechanisms.

Influence of DNMT genotype on global and site specific DNA methylation patterns in neonates and pregnant women

This study examines the relationship between common genetic variation within DNA methyltransferase genes and inter-individual variation in DNA methylation. Eleven polymorphisms spanning DNMT1 and DNMT3B were genotyped. Global and gene specific (IGF2, IGFBP3, ZNT5) DNA methylation was quantified by LUMA and bisulfite Pyrosequencing assays, respectively, in neonatal cord blood and in maternal peripheral blood. Associations between maternal genotype and maternal methylation (n (≈) 333), neonatal genotype and neonatal methylation (n (≈) 454), and maternal genotype and neonatal methylation (n (≈) 137) were assessed. The findings of this study provide some support to the hypothesis that genetic variation in DNA methylating enzymes influence DNA methylation at global and gene-specific levels; however observations were not robust to correction for multiple testing. More comprehensive analysis of the influence of genetic variation on global and site specific DNA methylation is warranted.

History, biology, and health inequities: emergent embodied phenotypes and the illustrative case of the breast cancer estrogen receptor

How we think about biology--in historical, ecological, and societal context--matters for framing causes of and solutions to health inequities. Drawing on new insights from ecological evolutionary developmental biology and ecosocial theory, I question dominant gene-centric and ultimately static approaches to conceptualizing biology, using the example of the breast cancer estrogen receptor (ER). Analyzed in terms of its 4 histories--societal, individual (life course), tumor (cellular pathology), and evolutionary--the ER is revealed as a flexible characteristic of cells, tumors, individuals, and populations, with magnitudes of health inequities tellingly changing over time. This example suggests our science will likely be better served by conceptualizing disease and its biomarkers, along with changing magnitudes of health inequities, as embodied history--that is, emergent embodied phenotype, not innate biology.

Who and what is a "population"? Historical debates, current controversies, and implications for understanding "population health" and rectifying health inequities

CONTEXT

The idea of "population" is core to the population sciences but is rarely defined except in statistical terms. Yet who and what defines and makes a population has everything to do with whether population means are meaningful or meaningless, with profound implications for work on population health and health inequities.

METHODS

In this article, I review the current conventional definitions of, and historical debates over, the meaning(s) of "population," trace back the contemporary emphasis on populations as statistical rather than substantive entities to Adolphe Quetelet's powerful astronomical metaphor, conceived in the 1830s, of l'homme moyen (the average man), and argue for an alternative definition of populations as relational beings. As informed by the ecosocial theory of disease distribution, I then analyze several case examples to explore the utility of critical population-informed thinking for research, knowledge, and policy involving population health and health inequities.

FINDINGS

Four propositions emerge: (1) the meaningfulness of means depends on how meaningfully the populations are defined in relation to the inherent intrinsic and extrinsic dynamic generative relationships by which they are constituted; (2) structured chance drives population distributions of health and entails conceptualizing health and disease, including biomarkers, as embodied phenotype and health inequities as historically contingent; (3) persons included in population health research are study participants, and the casual equation of this term with "study population" should be avoided; and (4) the conventional cleavage of "internal validity" and "generalizability" is misleading, since a meaningful choice of study participants must be in relation to the range of exposures experienced (or not) in the real-world societies, that is, meaningful populations, of which they are a part.

CONCLUSIONS

To improve conceptual clarity, causal inference, and action to promote health equity, population sciences need to expand and deepen their theorizing about who and what makes populations and their means.

Two-step epigenetic Mendelian randomization: a strategy for establishing the causal role of epigenetic processes in pathways to disease

The burgeoning interest in the field of epigenetics has precipitated the need to develop approaches to strengthen causal inference when considering the role of epigenetic mediators of environmental exposures on disease risk. Epigenetic markers, like any other molecular biomarker, are vulnerable to confounding and reverse causation. Here, we present a strategy, based on the well-established framework of Mendelian randomization, to interrogate the causal relationships between exposure, DNA methylation and outcome. The two-step approach first uses a genetic proxy for the exposure of interest to assess the causal relationship between exposure and methylation. A second step then utilizes a genetic proxy for DNA methylation to interrogate the causal relationship between DNA methylation and outcome. The rationale, origins, methodology, advantages and limitations of this novel strategy are presented.