Biomarkers for Prediction of Alcohol-Related Liver Cirrhosis: A General Population-Based Swedish Study of 537,250 Individuals

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The study sought to examine which biomarkers have the best predictive capabilities for future alcohol-related liver cirrhosis (ARLC) in a general population setting.

METHOD

This population-based cohort study includes approximately 35% of the inhabitants of Stockholm County who had left a blood sample at an outpatient visit in primary care or occupational health screening from 1985 to 1996. All subjects with a blood sample measurement of alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were included, exclusions were made for persons with known liver disease. We ascertained incident ARLC by linkage to Swedish national health registers between to the end of 2011. Associations between biomarkers and incident ARLC were analyzed with Cox regression models and discrimination was assessed using C-statistics.

RESULTS

In all, 537,230 adult subjects were included. The mean age was 45 years and 53% were men. During a mean follow-up of 19.0 years, 2725 (0.51%) subjects developed ARLC. The biomarkers with the highest discrimination (C-index) for incident ARLC at 5 years were: AST (0.89), mean corpuscular volume (0.88), and γ-glutamyltransferase (0.81). Scoring systems including Fibrosis-4 (0.86) and the AST/alanine aminotransferase ratio (0.81) performed similarly well. The negative predictive value for ARLC was generally high (∼99.6%) across biomarkers, using routine clinical cutoffs to identify pathological values. However, positive predictive values were generally low (0.6%-15.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarkers commonly used in primary care settings are highly associated with incident ARLC in the general population. Elevation of these commonly available biomarkers should prompt consideration of further investigation of a possible high level of alcohol consumption.

Metabolic Profile and Long-Term Risk of Depression, Anxiety, and Stress-Related Disorders

Importance

Biomarkers of lipid, apolipoprotein, and carbohydrate metabolism have been previously suggested to be associated with the risk for depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders, but results are inconsistent.

Objective

To examine whether the biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolism are associated with the risk of depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cohort study with longitudinal data collection assessed 211 200 participants from the Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort who underwent occupational health screening between January 1, 1985, and December 31, 1996, mainly in the Stockholm region in Sweden. Statistical analysis was performed during 2022 to 2023.

Exposures

Lipid, apolipoprotein, and carbohydrate biomarkers measured in blood.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The associations between biomarker levels and the risk of developing depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders through the end of 2020 were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression models. In addition, nested case-control analyses were conducted within the cohort, including all incident cases of depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders, and up to 10 control individuals per case who were individually matched to the case by year of birth, sex, and year of enrollment to the AMORIS cohort, using incidence density sampling. Population trajectories were used to illustrate the temporal trends in biomarker levels for cases and controls.

Results

A total of 211 200 individuals (mean [SD] age at first biomarker measurement, 42.1 [12.6] years; 122 535 [58.0%] male; 188 895 [89.4%] born in Sweden) participated in the study. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 21.0 (6.7) years, a total of 16 256 individuals were diagnosed with depression, anxiety, or stress-related disorders. High levels of glucose (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.20-1.41) and triglycerides (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.10-1.20) were associated with an increased subsequent risk of all tested psychiatric disorders, whereas high levels of high-density lipoprotein (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.97) were associated with a reduced risk. These results were similar for male and female participants as well as for all tested disorders. The nested case-control analyses demonstrated that patients with depression, anxiety, or stress-related disorders had higher levels of glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol during the 20 years preceding diagnosis, as well as higher levels of apolipoprotein A-I and apolipoprotein B during the 10 years preceding diagnosis, compared with control participants.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of more than 200 000 participants, high levels of glucose and triglycerides and low levels of high-density lipoprotein were associated with future risk of depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders. These findings may support closer follow-up of individuals with metabolic dysregulations for the prevention and diagnosis of psychiatric disorders.

Blood biomarker profiles and exceptional longevity: comparison of centenarians and non-centenarians in a 35-year follow-up of the Swedish AMORIS cohort

Comparing biomarker profiles measured at similar ages, but earlier in life, among exceptionally long-lived individuals and their shorter-lived peers can improve our understanding of aging processes. This study aimed to (i) describe and compare biomarker profiles at similar ages between 64 and 99 among individuals eventually becoming centenarians and their shorter-lived peers, (ii) investigate the association between specific biomarker values and the chance of reaching age 100, and (iii) examine to what extent centenarians have homogenous biomarker profiles earlier in life. Participants in the population-based AMORIS cohort with information on blood-based biomarkers measured during 1985-1996 were followed in Swedish register data for up to 35 years. We examined biomarkers of metabolism, inflammation, liver, renal, anemia, and nutritional status using descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and cluster analysis. In total, 1224 participants (84.6% females) lived to their 100th birthday. Higher levels of total cholesterol and iron and lower levels of glucose, creatinine, uric acid, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase, and total iron-binding capacity were associated with reaching 100 years. Centenarians overall displayed rather homogenous biomarker profiles. Already from age 65 and onwards, centenarians displayed more favorable biomarker values in commonly available biomarkers than individuals dying before age 100. The differences in biomarker values between centenarians and non-centenarians more than one decade prior death suggest that genetic and/or possibly modifiable lifestyle factors reflected in these biomarker levels may play an important role for exceptional longevity.

Risk of head and neck cancer in relation to blood inflammatory biomarkers in the Swedish AMORIS cohort

Background

Inflammation is critically involved in the development of human cancer, and blood inflammatory biomarkers have been proposed to indicate the risk of different cancer types.

Methods

Using the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) Cohort (N=812,073), we first performed a time-to-event analysis to evaluate the association of the baseline level of 12 blood inflammatory biomarkers measured during 1985-1996 with the subsequent risk of head and neck cancer (HNC) identified through the nationwide Swedish Cancer Register until end of 2020. A nested case-control study was further conducted to demonstrate the longitudinal trends of the studied biomarkers during the 30-year period prior to diagnosis of HNC.

Results

In the time-to-event analysis, we identified a total of 2,510 newly diagnosed HNC cases. There was an increased risk of HNC per standard deviation (SD) increase of haptoglobin (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21-1.30), leukocytes (HR: 1.22; 95%CI: 1.17-1.28), sedimentation rate (HR: 1.17; 95%CI: 1.07-1.29), and monocytes (HR: 1.34; 95%CI: 1.07-1.68) at baseline, after adjustment for age, sex, fasting status, occupational status, and country of birth. In contrast, there was a decreased risk of HNC per SD increase of lymphocytes in % (HR: 0.85; 95%CI: 0.73-0.99) and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) (HR: 0.81; 95%CI: 0.69-0.95) at baseline. In the nested case-control study using repeatedly measured biomarker levels, we found that individuals with HNC had consistently higher levels of haptoglobin, leukocytes, sedimentation rate, and monocytes, as well as consistently lower levels of lymphocytes in % and LMR, during the 30-year period prior to diagnosis, compared to controls.

Conclusion

Based on a cohort of more than half a million participants with up to 35 years of follow-up, our findings provide solid evidence supporting the presence of alterations in blood inflammatory biomarkers during the decades before diagnosis of HNC.

Blood metabolic biomarkers and the risk of head and neck cancer: An epidemiological study in the Swedish AMORIS Cohort

Multiple studies have investigated the role of carbohydrate and lipid metabolism on the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC), with however conflicting results. We performed a study of 561,388 individuals of the Swedish AMORIS Cohort with blood test results on nine biomarkers for carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolism during 1985-1996. We examined the associations of these biomarkers with the future risk of HNC through 2020 and demonstrated the temporal changes of these biomarkers during the decades before cancer diagnosis. We found that there was a positive association between blood level of glucose, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), and Apoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) and the risk of HNC. Per standard deviation increase, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.09) for glucose, 1.09 (95% CI 1.05-1.13) for TC, 1.13 (95% CI 1.08-1.17) for TG, and 1.11 (95% CI 1.04-1.19) for ApoA-I. The associations were primarily noted for squamous cell carcinoma but not adenocarcinoma. Compared to controls, patients with HNC, primarily squamous cell carcinoma, showed constantly higher levels of glucose, TC, TG, and ApoA-I during the 30 years before diagnosis. In conclusion, findings of the study add new and high-quality evidence to the early involvement of carbohydrate and lipid metabolism in the oncogenesis of human cancer.

Improved prediction of 10-year risk of severe liver disease in the general population using commonly available biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Estimating the risk for cirrhosis in the general population is complex. Existing prediction tools are in general unsatisfactory.

AIMS

To explore if using commonly available biomarkers can improve the commonly used FIB-4 score in the identification of subgroups at risk of cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used laboratory and clinical data on 126,925 individuals aged 35-79 years in Stockholm, Sweden, undergoing health examinations from 1985 to 1996. We used Swedish nationwide registries to ascertain 10-year cumulative incidence of severe liver disease, a composite of diagnoses corresponding to cirrhosis and its complications. We considered combinations of biomarkers associated with severe liver disease to identify subgroups with different risk profiles.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 9.3 years, we ascertained 630 incident cases of severe liver disease (0.5%). Age, the FIB-4 score, diabetes or impaired glucose and gamma-glutamyl transferase (gGT) were the most relevant characteristics for classifying risk profiles. Using these factors, we identified 24 groups with a cumulative incidence of severe liver disease at 10 years ranging from 0.2% (age 35-65, low FIB-4, no diabetes or impaired glucose and normal gGT) to 32.1% (age 35-65, high FIB-4, diabetes or impaired glucose and high gGT).

CONCLUSIONS

Identification of subjects at increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population using the FIB-4 score can be substantially improved by adding age and specific biomarkers commonly available in the primary care setting. These parameters should be considered for inclusion in the development of future risk prediction models.

Carbohydrate, Lipid, and Apolipoprotein Biomarkers in Blood and Risk of Thyroid Cancer: Findings from the AMORIS Cohort

Background: Previous studies have examined the link between blood metabolic biomarkers and risk of thyroid cancer, with inconclusive results. We performed a cohort study based on the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) Cohort, including 561,388 individuals undergoing health examinations during 1985−1996 with a follow-up of >30 years. Methods: Newly diagnosed cases of thyroid cancer were identified from the Swedish Cancer Register. We assessed the associations of nine blood biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolism measured at the time of health examinations with the subsequent risk of thyroid cancer and demonstrated the temporal trend of these biomarkers during the 30 years before diagnosis of thyroid cancer. Results: After multivariable adjustment, there was a lower risk of thyroid cancer, per standard deviation increase in total cholesterol (TC; HR 0.91; 95%CI 0.82−0.99) and HDL-C (HR 0.86; 95%CI 0.75−0.99). During the 20 to 30 years before diagnosis, patients with thyroid cancer, as a group, demonstrated constantly lower levels of TC and HDL-C, compared to controls. Further, patients with thyroid cancer demonstrated declining levels of these biomarkers during the ten years before diagnosis, whereas controls demonstrated stable or increasing levels. Conclusions: Taken together, we found blood levels of TC and HDL-C to be associated with the risk of thyroid cancer and that there was a declining level of metabolic biomarkers during the 10 years before diagnosis of thyroid cancer.

Elevated Uric Acid Is Associated With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation: Results From the Swedish AMORIS Cohort

Background The role of uric acid is gaining increasing importance in the evaluation of cardiovascular disease, but its relationship with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. This study aims to investigate the association between uric acid levels and risk of new-onset AF. Methods and Results A total of 339 604 individuals 30 to 60 years of age and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline (1985-1996) in the Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-Mortality Risk) cohort were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF. Cox regression models were used to examine the association between uric acid and AF, adjusting for potential confounders and stratifying by incident cardiovascular disease. Over a mean follow-up of 25.9 years, 46 516 incident AF cases occurred. Compared with the lowest uric acid quartile, each of the upper 3 quartiles were associated with an increased risk of AF in a dose-response manner. Adjusted hazard ratios were 1.09 (95% CI, 1.06-1.12) for second quartile, 1.19 (95% CI, 1.16-1.23) for third quartile, and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.41-1.49) for fourth quartile. The association was similar among individuals with and without incident hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, or coronary heart disease. The dose-response pattern was further supported in a subsample of individuals with repeated measurements of uric acid. Conclusions Elevated uric acid was associated with an increased risk of AF, not only among people with cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors but also among those without. Future investigations are needed to examine whether lowering uric acid is relevant for AF prevention.

Lipids and atrial fibrillation: New insights into a paradox

In this Perspective, Dimitrios Sagris, Stephanie Harrison, and Gregory Lip discuss new evidence concerning the paradoxical relationship between circulating lipids and atrial fibrillation.

Lipid levels in midlife and risk of atrial fibrillation over 3 decades-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

The role of cholesterol levels in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is still controversial. In addition, whether and to what extent apolipoproteins are associated with the risk of AF is rarely studied. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between blood lipid levels in midlife and subsequent risk of new-onset AF.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This population-based study included 65,136 individuals aged 45 to 60 years without overt cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort. Lipids were measured in 1985 to 1996, and individuals were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF (i.e., study outcome). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Over a mean follow-up of 24.2 years (standard deviation 7.5, range 0.2 to 35.9), 13,871 (21.3%) incident AF cases occurred. Higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were statistically significantly associated with a lower risk of AF during the first 5 years of follow-up (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.99, p = 0.013; HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.92, p = 0.016), but not thereafter (HR ranging from 0.94 [95% CI: 0.89 to 1.00, p = 0.038] to 0.96 [95% CI: 0.77 to 1.19, p > 0.05]). Lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) and higher triglycerides (TG)/HDL-C ratio were statistically significantly associated with a higher risk of AF during the entire follow-up (HR ranging from 1.13 [95% CI: 1.07 to 1.19, p < 0.001] to 1.53 [95% CI: 1.12 to 2.00, p = 0.007]). Apolipoprotein B (ApoB)/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk. The observed associations were similar among those who developed incident heart failure (HF)/coronary heart disease (CHD) and those who did not. The main limitations of this study include lack of adjustments for lifestyle factors and high blood pressure leading to potential residual confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

High TC and LDL-C in midlife was associated with a lower risk of AF, but this association was present only within 5 years from lipid measurement and not thereafter. On the contrary, low HDL-C and ApoA-I and high TG/HDL-C ratio were associated with an increased risk of AF over almost 35 years of follow-up. ApoB/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk.

Alterations in Biomarkers Related to Glycemia, Lipid Metabolism, and Inflammation up to 20 Years Before Diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes in Adults: Findings From the AMORIS Cohort

OBJECTIVE

Type 1 diabetes is described to have an acute onset, but autoantibodies can appear several years preceding diagnosis. This suggests a long preclinical phase, which may also include metabolic parameters. Here we assessed whether elevations in glycemic, lipid, and other metabolic biomarkers were associated with future type 1 diabetes risk in adults.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied 591,239 individuals from the Swedish AMORIS cohort followed from 1985-1996 to 2012. Through linkage to national patient, diabetes, and prescription registers, we identified incident type 1 diabetes. Using Cox regression models, we estimated hazard ratios for biomarkers at baseline and incident type 1 diabetes. We additionally assessed trajectories of biomarkers during the 25 years before type 1 diabetes diagnosis in a nested case-control design.

RESULTS

We identified 1,122 type 1 diabetes cases during follow-up (average age of patient at diagnosis: 53.3 years). The biomarkers glucose, fructosamine, triglycerides, the ratio of apolipoprotein (apo)B to apoA-I, uric acid, alkaline phosphatase, and BMI were positively associated with type 1 diabetes risk. Higher apoA-I was associated with lower type 1 diabetes incidence. Already 15 years before diagnosis, type 1 diabetes cases had higher mean glucose, fructosamine, triglycerides, and uric acid levels compared with control subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Alterations in biomarker levels related to glycemia, lipid metabolism, and inflammation are associated with clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes risk, and these may be elevated many years preceding diagnosis.

Long-term risk of a major cardiovascular event by apoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Elevated apolipoprotein B (apoB) and elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio increase the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, whereas high apoA-1 is protective. We study how these apolipoproteins are associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), whether apoA-1 contributes to this association, and whether abnormal values occur decades before such events develop.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In the Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-related MOrtality RISk) cohort study, 137,100 men and women aged 25-84 years were followed an average 17.8 years. ApoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio were analysed in relation to MACEs (non-fatal MI, stroke, and cardiovascular [CV] mortality), yielding 22,473 events. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to investigate the relationship of MACEs with increasing quintiles of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio in all age groups for both sexes. In nested case-control analyses, cases were randomly matched to age- and sex-matched controls, yielding population trajectories for apolipoproteins. Increased level of apoB and increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio were associated with risk of MACE and all clinical sub-components in both men and women across all ages (10th versus first decile in both sexes combined: HR 1.7 for MACE and 2.7 for non-fatal MI). Decreased values of apoA-1 potentiated the impact of apoB at all levels of apoB (on average across apoB range: 40% increase in HR for MACE and 72% increase in HR for non-fatal MI), indicating that the apoB/apoA-1 ratio covers a broader range of persons with dyslipidaemia at risk than apoB alone. In both men and women, MACEs occurred earlier on average for each increasing quintile of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio. Individuals with the highest levels of apoB/apoA-1 ratio experienced CV events on average several years earlier than those with lower ratios. Higher apoB/apoA-1 ratio in cases of MACE versus controls was seen already about 20 years before the event. A limitation of this study was that adjustment for tobacco smoking and hypertension was only possible in a small validation study.

CONCLUSIONS

An imbalance between apoB and apoA-1 resulting in an increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio is strongly associated with the outcome MACE and its sub-components, in both men and women of all ages. An increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio already 2 decades before events calls for early recognition and primary prevention. Simple evidence-based cut values should be considered in future cardiovascular guidelines.

Impaired fasting glucose: a risk factor for atrial fibrillation and heart failure

BACKGROUND

Dysglycaemia is associated with overall cardiovascular disease even at prediabetes levels. The aim of this study was to explore the association between glucose levels and future risk of developing atrial fibrillation and heart failure, respectively.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study subjects from the Swedish AMORIS-cohort with fasting glucose from health examinations 1985-1996 without previous cardiovascular disease (N = 294,057) were followed to 31 December 2011 for incident atrial fibrillation or heart failure. Cox proportional hazard models with attained age as timescale and adjustments for sex, cholesterol, triglycerides, and socioeconomic status were used to estimate hazard ratios by glucose categorized groups (normal glucose 3.9-6.0 mmol/L, impaired fasting glucose; 6.1-6.9 mmol/L, undiagnosed diabetes ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, and diagnosed diabetes).

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up time of 19.1 years 28,233 individuals developed atrial fibrillation and 25,604 developed heart failure. The HR for atrial fibrillation was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.13-1.26) for impaired fasting glucose, 1.23 (1.15-1.32) for undiagnosed diabetes and 1.30 (1.21-1.41) for diagnosed diabetes. Corresponding figures for heart failure were; 1.40 (1.33-1.48), 2.11 (1.99-2.23), 2.22 (2.08-2.36) respectively. In a subset with BMI data (19%), these associations were attenuated and for atrial fibrillation only remained statistically significant among subjects with diagnosed diabetes (HR 1.25; 1.02-1.53).

CONCLUSIONS

Fasting glucose at prediabetes levels is associated with development of atrial fibrillation and heart failure. To some extent increased BMI may drive this association.

Impaired fasting glucose: a risk factor for atrial fibrillation and heart failure

BACKGROUND

Dysglycaemia is associated with overall cardiovascular disease even at prediabetes levels. The aim of this study was to explore the association between glucose levels and future risk of developing atrial fibrillation and heart failure, respectively.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study subjects from the Swedish AMORIS-cohort with fasting glucose from health examinations 1985-1996 without previous cardiovascular disease (N = 294,057) were followed to 31 December 2011 for incident atrial fibrillation or heart failure. Cox proportional hazard models with attained age as timescale and adjustments for sex, cholesterol, triglycerides, and socioeconomic status were used to estimate hazard ratios by glucose categorized groups (normal glucose 3.9-6.0 mmol/L, impaired fasting glucose; 6.1-6.9 mmol/L, undiagnosed diabetes ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, and diagnosed diabetes).

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up time of 19.1 years 28,233 individuals developed atrial fibrillation and 25,604 developed heart failure. The HR for atrial fibrillation was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.13-1.26) for impaired fasting glucose, 1.23 (1.15-1.32) for undiagnosed diabetes and 1.30 (1.21-1.41) for diagnosed diabetes. Corresponding figures for heart failure were; 1.40 (1.33-1.48), 2.11 (1.99-2.23), 2.22 (2.08-2.36) respectively. In a subset with BMI data (19%), these associations were attenuated and for atrial fibrillation only remained statistically significant among subjects with diagnosed diabetes (HR 1.25; 1.02-1.53).

CONCLUSIONS

Fasting glucose at prediabetes levels is associated with development of atrial fibrillation and heart failure. To some extent increased BMI may drive this association.

The rate by which mortality increase with age is the same for those who experienced chronic disease as for the general population

Background

Mortality doubles approximately every 6–7 years during adulthood. This exponential increase in death risk with chronological age is the population-level manifestation of ageing, and often referred to as the rate-of-ageing.

Objective

We explore whether the onset of severe chronic disease alters the rate-of-ageing.

Methods

Using Swedish register data covering the entire population of the birth cohorts 1927–30, we analyse whether being diagnosed with myocardial infarction, diabetes or cancer results in a deviation of the rate-of-ageing from those of the total population. We also quantify the long-term mortality effects of these diseases, using ages with equivalent mortality levels for those with disease and the total population.

Results

None of the diseases revealed a sustained effect on the rate-of-ageing. After an initial switch upwards in the level of mortality, the rate-of-ageing returned to the same pace as for the total population. The time it takes for the rate to return depends on the disease. The long-term effects of diabetes and myocardial infarction amount to mortality levels that are equivalent to those aged 5–7 years older in the total population. For cancer, the level of mortality returns to that of the total population.

Conclusion

Our results suggest an underlying process of ageing that causes mortality to increase at a set pace, with every year older we become. This process is not affected by disease history. The persistence of the rate-of-ageing motivates a critical discussion of what role disease prevention can play in altering the progression of ageing.

Association between serum markers of the humoral immune system and inflammation in the Swedish AMORIS study

BACKGROUND

Although the onset of inflammatory cascades may profoundly influence the nature of antibody responses, the interplay between inflammatory and humoral (antibody) immune markers remains unclear. Thus, we explored the reciprocity between the humoral immune system and inflammation and assessed how external socio-demographic factors may influence these interactions. From the AMORIS cohort, 5513 individuals were identified with baseline measurements of serum humoral immune [immunoglobulin G, A & M (IgG, IgA, IgM)] and inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, haptoglobin, white blood cells (WBC), iron and total iron-binding capacity) markers measured on the same day. Correlation analysis, principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering were used to evaluate biomarkers correlation, variation and associations. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to assess associations between biomarkers and educational level, socio-economic status, sex and age.

RESULTS

Frequently used serum markers for inflammation, CRP, haptoglobin and white blood cells, correlated together. Hierarchical clustering and principal component analysis confirmed the interaction between these main biological responses, showing an acute response component (CRP, Haptoglobin, WBC, IgM) and adaptive response component (Albumin, Iron, TIBC, IgA, IgG). A socioeconomic gradient associated with worse health outcomes was observed, specifically low educational level, older age and male sex were associated with serum levels that indicated infection and inflammation.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that serum markers of the humoral immune system and inflammation closely interact in response to infection or inflammation. Clustering analysis presented two main immune response components: an acute and an adaptive response, comprising markers of both biological pathways. Future studies should shift from single internal marker assessment to multiple humoral and inflammation serum markers combined, when assessing risk of clinical outcomes such as cancer.

Tumor-Infiltrating B Lymphocyte Profiling Identifies IgG-Biased, Clonally Expanded Prognostic Phenotypes in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

In breast cancer, humoral immune responses may contribute to clinical outcomes, especially in more immunogenic subtypes. Here, we investigated B lymphocyte subsets, immunoglobulin expression, and clonal features in breast tumors, focusing on aggressive triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC). In samples from patients with TNBC and healthy volunteers, circulating and tumor-infiltrating B lymphocytes (TIL-B) were evaluated. CD20+CD27+IgD- isotype-switched B lymphocytes were increased in tumors, compared with matched blood. TIL-B frequently formed stromal clusters with T lymphocytes and engaged in bidirectional functional cross-talk, consistent with gene signatures associated with lymphoid assembly, costimulation, cytokine-cytokine receptor interactions, cytotoxic T-cell activation, and T-cell-dependent B-cell activation. TIL-B-upregulated B-cell receptor (BCR) pathway molecules FOS and JUN, germinal center chemokine regulator RGS1, activation marker CD69, and TNFα signal transduction via NFκB, suggesting BCR-immune complex formation. Expression of genes associated with B lymphocyte recruitment and lymphoid assembly, including CXCL13, CXCR4, and DC-LAMP, was elevated in TNBC compared with other subtypes and normal breast. TIL-B-rich tumors showed expansion of IgG but not IgA isotypes, and IgG isotype switching positively associated with survival outcomes in TNBC. Clonal expansion was biased toward IgG, showing expansive clonal families with specific variable region gene combinations and narrow repertoires. Stronger positive selection pressure was present in the complementarity determining regions of IgG compared with their clonally related IgA in tumor samples. Overall, class-switched B lymphocyte lineage traits were conspicuous in TNBC, associated with improved clinical outcomes, and conferred IgG-biased, clonally expanded, and likely antigen-driven humoral responses. SIGNIFICANCE: Tumor-infiltrating B lymphocytes assemble in clusters, undergoing B-cell receptor-driven activation, proliferation, and isotype switching. Clonally expanded, IgG isotype-biased humoral immunity associates with favorable prognosis primarily in triple-negative breast cancers.

A Dynamic Aspartate-to-Alanine Aminotransferase Ratio Provides Valid Predictions of Incident Severe Liver Disease

The aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR) is associated with liver fibrosis, but its predictive performance is suboptimal. We hypothesized that the association between AAR and liver disease depends on absolute transaminase levels and developed and validated a model to predict liver-related outcomes in the general population. A Cox regression model based on age, AAR, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level (dynamic AAR [dAAR]) using restricted cubic splines was developed in Finnish population-based health-examination surveys (FINRISK, 2002-2012; n = 18,067) with linked registry data for incident liver-related hospitalizations, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver death. The model was externally validated for liver-related outcomes in a Swedish population cohort (Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk [AMORIS] subcohort; n = 126,941) and for predicting outcomes and/or prevalent fibrosis/cirrhosis in biopsied patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), chronic hepatitis C, or alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). The dynamic AAR model predicted liver-related outcomes both overall (optimism-corrected C-statistic, 0.81) and in subgroup analyses of the FINRISK cohort and identified persons with >10% risk for liver-related outcomes within 10 years. In independent cohorts, the C-statistic for predicting liver-related outcomes up to a 10-year follow-up was 0.72 in the AMORIS cohort, 0.81 in NAFLD, and 0.75 in ALD. Area-under-the-curve (AUC) for detecting prevalent cirrhosis was 0.80-0.83 in NAFLD, 0.80 in hepatitis C, but only 0.71 in ALD. In ALD, model performance improved when using aspartate aminotransferase instead of ALT in the model (C-statistic, 0.84 for outcome; AUC, 0.82 for prevalent cirrhosis). Conclusion: A dAAR score provides prospective predictions for the risk of incident severe liver outcomes in the general population and helps detect advanced liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. The dAAR score could potentially be used for screening the unselected general population and as a trigger for further liver evaluations.

Blood-based biomarkers and long-term risk of frailty - experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort

BACKGROUND

Frailty is associated with reduced quality of life, poor health outcomes, and death. Past studies have investigated how specific biomarkers are associated with frailty but understanding biomarkers in concert with each other and the associated risk of frailty is critical for clinical application.

METHODS

Using a sample aged ≥59 years at baseline from the Swedish AMORIS cohort (n=19341), with biomarkers measured at baseline (1985-1996), we conducted latent class analysis with 18 biomarkers and used Cox models to determine the association between class and frailty and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Four classes were identified. Compared to the largest class, the Reference class (81.7%), all other classes were associated with increased risk of both frailty and mortality. The Anemia class (5.8%), characterized by comparatively lower iron markers and higher inflammatory markers, had HR=1.54, 95% CI 1.38, 1.73 for frailty and HR=1.76, 95% CI 1.65, 1.87 for mortality. The Diabetes class (6.5%) was characterized by higher glucose and fructosamine, and had HR=1.59, 95% CI 1.43, 1.77 for frailty and HR=1.74, 95% CI 1.64, 1.85 for mortality. Finally, the Liver class (6.0%), characterized by higher liver enzyme levels, had HR=1.15, 95% CI 1.01, 1.30 for frailty and HR=1.40, 95% CI 1.31, 1.50 for mortality. Sex-stratified analyses did not show any substantial differences between men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct sets of commonly available biomarkers were associated with development of frailty and monitoring these biomarkers in patients may allow for earlier detection and possible prevention of frailty, with the potential for improved quality of life.

Repeated FIB-4 measurements can help identify individuals at risk of severe liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It is unclear whether the identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis using non-invasive tests can be improved by repeated measurements. Herein, we tested whether repeated measurements of fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) could improve the identification of individuals at risk of severe liver disease.

METHODS

Data were derived from the population-based Swedish AMORIS cohort with baseline examinations from 1985-1996. FIB-4 was calculated at 2 time points within 5 years. Thereafter, we associated changes in FIB-4 with outcomes. Incident severe liver disease data was ascertained through linkage to Swedish national registers until 2011. Hazard ratios (HRs) and CIs for outcomes were calculated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Of 126,942 individuals with available FIB-4 data, 40,729 (32.1%) underwent a second test within 5 years (mean interval 2.4 years). During 613,376 person-years of follow-up, 581 severe liver disease events were documented (0.95/1,000 person-years). An increase of 1 unit in FIB-4 was associated with an elevated risk of severe liver disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.81; 95% CI 1.67-1.96). Transitioning from a low- or intermediate- to a high-risk group was associated with an increased risk of severe liver disease compared with those consistently in the low-risk group (aHR 7.99 and 8.64, respectively). A particularly increased risk of severe liver disease was found in individuals defined as high risk at both tests (aHR 17.04; 95% CI 11.67-24.88). However, almost half of all events occurred in those consistently in the low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

Repeated testing of FIB-4 within 5 years improves the identification of individuals at an increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population. However, the sensitivity is comparatively low and improved tests are needed for screening in a general population or primary care setting.

LAY SUMMARY

The fibrosis-4 scoring system is often used to estimate the risk of advanced fibrosis in liver diseases. Herein, we found that changes in this score over time are associated with the risk of future severe liver disease in a population-based cohort. However, even if the prediction is improved by repeated testing, the overall ability of the score to predict future events is relatively low.

Non-invasive liver fibrosis scores are strongly associated with liver cancer mortality in general population without liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In a general population without known liver disease, we tested whether: (a) increased liver fibrosis scores (FIB-4 and APRI) are associated with liver cancer mortality and (b) the probability that a person with a higher score died of liver cancer.

METHODS

In a retrospective occupational cohort who underwent annual/biennial health examinations (between 2002 and 2015), subjects were excluded with known chronic liver disease. Based on their baseline FIB-4 and APRI scores, subjects were categorised in low-/intermediate-/high-risk groups for advanced liver fibrosis. Using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were estimated for liver cancer mortality, with the low-risk FIB-4/APRI group as the reference. Harrell's C statistics were also calculated.

RESULTS

In 200 479 participants, mean (SD) age was 36.4 (7.7) years. Median follow-up was 4.1 years (IQR 2.10-8.03) with 80 liver cancer deaths. High baseline FIB-4 or APRI scores occurred in 0.25% and 0.09% of subjects respectively. A high FIB-4 or APRI score was associated with a markedly increased risk of liver cancer mortality (aHRs 629.10 [95% CI 228.74-1730.20] and 80.42 [95% CI 34.37-188.18]) respectively. C statistics were FIB-4 = 0.841 (95% CI 0.735-0.946) and APRI = 0.933 (95% CI 0.864-0.999).

CONCLUSIONS

In a general population without known liver disease, high FIB-4 or high APRI (in keeping with a high probability of advanced fibrosis) occurred in 0.25% (FIB-4) and 0.09% (APRI) of subjects. Both scores were associated with a markedly increased risk of liver cancer mortality and FIB-4 and APRI models both strongly predicted liver cancer mortality.

Serum Immunoglobulin G Is Associated With Decreased Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in the Swedish AMORIS Study

Background: Emerging evidence points to potential roles of the humoral immune responses in the development of pancreatic cancer. Epidemiological studies have suggested involvement of viral and bacterial infections in pancreatic carcinogenesis. Experimental studies have reported high expression levels of antigens in pancreatic cancer cells. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the role of different components of humoral immunity in the context of pancreatic cancer. We evaluated associations between pre-diagnostic serum markers of the overall humoral immune system [immunoglobulin A (IgA), immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM)], and the risk of pancreatic cancer in the Swedish Apolipoprotein-related MORtality RISk (AMORIS) study.

Methods: We selected all participants (≥20 years old) with baseline measurements of IgA, IgG or IgM (n = 41,900, 136,221, and 29,919, respectively). Participants were excluded if they had a history of chronic pancreatitis and individuals were free from pancreatic cancer at baseline. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate risk of pancreatic cancer for medical cut-offs of IgA, IgG, and IgM.

Results: Compared to the reference level of 6.10–14.99 g/L, risk of pancreatic cancer was elevated among those with IgG levels <6.10 g/L [HR: 1.69 (95% CI 0.99–2.87)], and an inverse association was observed among those with IgG levels ≥15.00 g/L [0.82 (95% CI 0.64–1.05); Ptrend = 0.027]. The association appeared to be stronger for women than men [HR: 0.64 (95% CI 0.43–0.97) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.69–1.29), respectively]. No associations were observed with IgA or IgM.

Conclusion: An inverse association was observed between pre-diagnostic serum levels of IgG and risk of pancreatic cancer. Our findings highlight the need to further investigate the role of immune response in pancreatic cancer etiology.

Ability of Noninvasive Scoring Systems to Identify Individuals in the Population at Risk for Severe Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Noninvasive scoring systems are used to identify persons with advanced liver fibrosis. We investigated the ability of scoring systems to identify individuals in the general population at risk for future liver-related events.

METHODS

We collected data from the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk cohort on persons 35 to 79 years old who had blood samples collected from 1985 through 1996. We collected APRI (n = 127,302), BARD (n = 75,303), FIB-4 (n = 126,941), Forns (n = 122,419), and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis scores (NFS, n = 13,160). We ascertained incident cases of cirrhosis or complications by linking Swedish health data registers. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for severe liver disease at 5, 10, and a maximum follow-up time of 27 years. The predictive ability of the scores was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and C-statistics analyses. Our specific aims were to investigate the predictive capabilities of scoring systems for fatal and nonfatal liver disease, determine which scoring system has the highest level of accuracy, and investigate the predictive abilities of the scoring systems in persons with a higher probability of NAFLD at baseline.

RESULTS

A similar proportion of individuals evaluated by each scoring system developed cirrhosis or complications thereof (1.0%-1.4%). The incidence of any outcome was increased in intermediate- and high-risk groups compared with low-risk groups, with HRs at 10 years in the high-risk group ranging from 1.67 for the BARD score to 45.9 for the APRI score. The predictive abilities of all scoring systems decreased with time and were higher in men. All scoring systems were more accurate in persons with risk factors for NAFLD at baseline, with AUROCs reaching 0.83.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher scores from noninvasive scoring systems to evaluate fibrosis are associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis in a general population, but their predictive ability is modest. Performance was better when patients were followed for shorter time periods and in persons with a higher risk of NAFLD, with AUROC values reaching 0.83. New scoring systems are needed to evaluate risk of fibrosis in the general population and in primary care.

Peripheral immune biomarkers and neurodegenerative diseases: A prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of several blood immune biomarkers with the future risks of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in a prospective cohort study with 20 years of follow-up.

METHODS

The Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk study is a longitudinal cohort study including 812,073 participants with repeated blood biomarker measurements between 1985 and 1996 and a follow-up until 2011. Using a Cox model, we first estimated hazard ratios of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinson disease in relation to leukocytes, immunoglobulin G, haptoglobin, and uric acid. We further described the temporal changes of these biomarkers during the 20 years prior to the diagnosis of these diseases.

RESULTS

A total of 585 incident cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 3,769 incident cases of Parkinson disease were identified during the follow-up. Increasing concentrations of leukocytes, haptoglobin, and uric acid were associated with a lower risk of Parkinson disease. No statistically significant association was, however, noted between the studied biomarkers and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Parkinson disease patients appeared to have lower levels of leukocytes and haptoglobin between 20 and 10 years before diagnosis and lower levels of uric acid during the 20 years before diagnosis, compared to controls, although statistically significant differences were only noted during parts of the respective time intervals after multivariable adjustment. No clear differences were noted between patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and controls.

INTERPRETATION

If verified in studies of independent populations, our findings may suggest a different role of systemic inflammation on the risk of Parkinson disease compared to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. ANN NEUROL 2019;86:913-926.

Serum IgG Is Associated With Risk of Melanoma in the Swedish AMORIS Study

Background: Relatively little is known about the role of the humoral immune system in melanoma. Tumor infiltrating B cells in melanoma patients have been associated with increased T cell activation in tumors as well as improved patient survival. Immunoglobulins may play an important part in the anti-tumor immune response. We hypothesized that increased levels of pre-diagnostic serum Ig may be protective against melanoma development. Hence, we evaluated associations between pre-diagnostic serum markers of the immunoglobulin A (IgA), IgG and IgM, and risk of developing melanoma in the Swedish Apolipoprotein-related MORtality RISk (AMORIS) study.

Methods: Study participants aged ≥20 years with baseline measurements of IgG, IgA and IgM taken between 1985 and 1996 were selected (n = 29,876). All individuals were free from melanoma at baseline and 162 study participants developed melanoma during follow up. Cox proportional hazards regression was carried out for medical cut-offs of IgA, IgG, and IgM.

Results: Compared to the reference level of 6.10–14.99 g/l, we observed a positive but not significant association with risk of melanoma for those with IgG levels <6.10 g/L [HR: 1.05 (95% CI 0.39–2.86)] and an inverse association for those with IgG levels ≥15.00 g/L [HR: 0.60 (95% CI 0.34–1.05); P_trend = 0.08]. No associations with serum IgA or IgM were identified.

Conclusions: The humoral response might provide a protective role against the development of melanoma, mediated through IgG. Further research is needed to characterize this response which may be exploitable for development of future therapies.

Chronic inflammation markers are associated with risk of pancreatic cancer in the Swedish AMORIS cohort study

BACKGROUND

Nested case-control studies examining the association between serum markers of chronic inflammation, focused on three specific biomarkers (CRP, IL-8 and TNF-α), and risk of pancreatic cancer have reported no associations. In this study, we evaluated associations between standard pre-diagnostic serum markers of chronic inflammation (CRP, albumin, haptoglobin and leukocytes) and pancreatic cancer risk in the Swedish Apolipoprotein-related MORtality RISk (AMORIS) prospective cohort study.

METHODS

We selected all participants (≥20 years old) with baseline measurements of CRP, albumin, haptoglobin and leukocytes between 1985 and 1996 (n = 61,597). Participants were excluded if they had a history of chronic pancreatitis and all individuals were free from pancreatic cancer at baseline. Cox proportional multivariable hazards regression analysis was carried out for medical cut-offs of CRP, albumin, haptoglobin and leukocytes.

RESULTS

We observed an increased risk of pancreatic cancer for those individuals with higher levels of serum haptoglobin (≥1.4 g/L), CRP (≥10 mg/L) and leukocytes (≥10 × 109 cells/L) compared to those with haptoglobin levels < 1.4 g/L, CRP levels < 10 mg/L and Leukocyte levels < 10 × 109 cells/L [haptoglobin HR: 2.23 (95% CI 1.72-2.88), CRP HR: 1.32 (95% CI 1.00-1.74), leukocytes HR: 2.20 (95% CI 1.52-3.18)]. No associations were noted for serum albumin.

CONCLUSIONS

We found an increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with pre-diagnostic serum levels of haptoglobin, CRP and leukocytes. Our finding suggests a possible role of chronic inflammation in the aetiology of pancreatic cancer and highlight the need to further investigate this association.

Lipids, Apolipoproteins, and the Risk of Parkinson Disease

RATIONALE

A complete picture of the associations of the most common lipid fractions, including total cholesterol (TC), LDL-C (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol), HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), triglycerides, and apolipoproteins, with the risk of Parkinson disease (PD), is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of lipids and apolipoproteins with the future risk of PD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In the AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk) Study, we enrolled ≈600 000 participants during 1985 to 1996 in Stockholm, Sweden, with repeated measurements of TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides, ApoB (apolipoprotein B), and ApoA-I (apolipoprotein A-I). The cohort was followed until the end of 2011, and incident cases of PD were identified through the Swedish Patient Register. We first used Cox models to estimate the associations of these biomarkers with later risk of PD. We further applied a Mendelian randomization analysis for TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides using the GWAS (Genome-wide association study) summary statistics from the public PD GWAS data and 23andMe PD cohorts with >800 000 individuals. One SD increase of TC was associated with a lower hazard of PD (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94). Similar associations were observed for LDL-C (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.98), triglycerides (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97), and ApoB (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85-0.97). A clear dose-response relation was also noted when using these biomarkers as categorical variables. A causal inverse association of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides with PD risk was further suggested by the Mendelian randomization analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reinforce that higher levels of TC, LDL-C, and triglycerides are associated with a lower future risk of PD and further suggest that these associations may be causal. The findings for ApoB in relation to PD risk are novel, and whether such association is causal needs to be examined.

Baseline serum folate, vitamin B12 and the risk of prostate and breast cancer using data from the Swedish AMORIS cohort

PURPOSE

The roles of folate and vitamin B12 in prostate cancer (PCa) or breast cancer (BC) development are unclear. We investigated their roles using the prospective Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk (AMORIS) study.

METHODS

8,783 men and 19,775 women with vitamin B12 and folate serum measurements were included. Their associations with PCa and BC risk categories were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

During mean follow-up of 13 years, 703 men developed PCa. There was an inverse association between folate > 32 nmol/L and high-risk PCa [hazard ratio (HR) 0.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.90], and a positive association between folate < 5 nmol/L and metastatic PCa (HR 5.25, 95% CI 1.29-21.41), compared with folate 5-32 nmol/L. No associations with vitamin B12 were found. 795 women developed BC during mean follow-up of 14 years. When restricting to the fasting population, there was a positive association between folate > 32 nmol/L and BC (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.06-2.04).

CONCLUSION

High folate levels may protect against PCa and low folate levels may increase risk of metastatic PCa. High fasting folate levels may be associated with an increased BC risk. Vitamin B12 was not found to be linked with risk of PCa or BC. Longitudinal studies with serum and dietary information could help define new prevention targets and add information on the role of folate fortification.

Immune mediator expression signatures are associated with improved outcome in ovarian carcinoma

Immune and inflammatory cascades may play multiple roles in ovarian cancer. We aimed to identify relationships between expression of immune and inflammatory mediators and patient outcomes. We interrogated differential gene expression of 44 markers and marker combinations (n = 1,978) in 1,656 ovarian carcinoma patient tumors, alongside matched 5-year overall survival (OS) data in silico. Using machine learning methods, we investigated whether genomic expression of these 44 mediators can discriminate between malignant and non-malignant tissues in 839 ovarian cancer and 115 non-malignant ovary samples. We furthermore assessed inflammation markers in 289 ovarian cancer patients’ sera in the Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality-related RISk (AMORIS) cohort. Expression of the 44 mediators could discriminate between malignant and non-malignant tissues with at least 96% accuracy. Higher expression of classical Th1, Th2, Th17, anti-parasitic/infection and M1 macrophage mediator signatures were associated with better OS. Contrastingly, inflammatory and angiogenic mediators, CXCL-12, C-reactive protein (CRP) and platelet-derived growth factor subunit A (PDGFA) were negatively associated with OS. Of the serum inflammatory markers in the AMORIS cohort, women with ovarian cancer who had elevated levels of haptoglobin (≥1.4 g/L) had a higher risk of dying from ovarian cancer compared to those with haptoglobin levels <1.4 g/L (HR = 2.09, 95% CI:1.38–3.16). Our findings indicate that elevated “classical” immune mediators, associated with response to pathogen antigen challenge, may confer immunological advantage in ovarian cancer, while inflammatory markers appear to have negative prognostic value. These highlight associations between immune protection, inflammation and clinical outcomes, and offer opportunities for patient stratification based on secretome markers.

Cardiovascular events in patients under age fifty with early findings of elevated lipid and glucose levels - The AMORIS study

Background

The long-term trajectories of lipid and glucose levels in subjects who experience a major cardiovascular (CV) event at a young age has not been well studied. Our objective was to investigate lipid, lipoprotein, apolipoprotein (apo), and glucose levels in individuals experiencing a CV event before 50 years of age.

Methods and findings

A first CV event [non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), coronary revascularisation, or CV related death] before age 50 was recorded in 2,939 (cumulative incidence 1.2% in males and 0.3% in females) of 361,353 individuals included in the prospective Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-related MOrtality RISk) study with health examinations 1985–1996 and follow-up through 2011. In a nested case-control analysis, cases with a CV event were matched to randomly selected controls. Population risk factor trajectories were calculated up to 20 years prior to an event. Total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), and glucose levels were higher in cases than in controls as early as 20 years prior to the event with differences increasing over time. Low density lipoprotein, apoB, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio were higher and increased over time, while HDL and apoA-1 were lower in cases compared to controls. The odds ratio was 2.5 (95% confidence interval 1.6–3.7) for TC ≥5 mmol/L and TG ≥1.7 mmol/L in cases versus controls. The adjusted population-attributable fractions including lipids, glucose, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, and obesity indicated that about 50% of CV events before age 50 may be associated with elevated lipid and glucose levels.

Conclusions

Elevated TC, TG, LDL, apoB, and glucose levels and high apoB/apo A-1 ratio documented two decades before a CV event in subjects younger than 50 years may account for about half of CV events before age 50, which calls for early recognition and possibly treatment of modifiable CV risk factors in young individuals.

Elevations of metabolic risk factors 20 years or more before diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: Experience from the AMORIS study

AIMS

To describe trajectories for metabolic risk factors for type 2 diabetes (T2D) up to 25 years prior to diagnosis and to estimate the absolute 20-year risk for T2D based on a simple set of commonly measured key risk factors.

METHODS

From the Swedish AMORIS cohort we included 296 428 individuals with data on fasting glucose obtained in health examinations during 1985-1996 (baseline period). All participants were followed until 2012 for development of incident T2D. The 20-year T2D risk based on age, sex, body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose and triglycerides was estimated. Trajectories for biomedical risk factors of T2D starting from >20 years before diagnosis and including fasting glucose, triglycerides and BMI were evaluated according to yearly means for cases and controls.

RESULTS

We identified 28 244 new T2D cases during the study period, with an average 20-year risk of 8.1%. This risk was substantially increased in overweight and obese participants and those with elevated fasting glucose and triglyceride levels, in both men and women. T2D cases had higher mean BMI and fasting glucose and triglyceride levels compared with controls >20 years before diagnosis and the difference in fasting glucose levels increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Development of T2D is associated with subtle elevations in glucose and lipid levels >20 years before diagnosis. This suggests that diabetogenic processes tied to chronic insulin resistance operate for decades prior to the development of T2D. A simple risk classification can help in early identification of individuals who are at increased risk.

Thyroid cancer risk in the Swedish AMORIS study: the role of inflammatory biomarkers in serum

Chronic inflammation is one of the underlying risks associated with thyroid cancer. We ascertained the association between commonly measured serum biomarkers of inflammation and the risk of thyroid cancer in Swedish Apolipoprotein-related MORtality RISk (AMORIS) study. 226,212 subjects had baseline measurements of C-reactive protein, albumin and haptoglobin. Leukocytes were measured in a subgroup of 63,845 subjects. Associations between quartiles and dichotomized values of inflammatory markers and risk of thyroid cancer were analysed using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. 202 individuals were diagnosed with thyroid cancer during a mean follow-up of 19.6 years. There was a positive association between lower albumin levels and risk of developing thyroid cancer [Hazard Ratio for albumin ≤ 40 g/L: 1.50 (95% Confidence Interval = 1.04-2.16)]. When stratified by a metabolic score, we observed similar association for albumin with higher HR among those with metabolic score ≥ 1, as compared to those with metabolic score of 0 [HR 1.98 (95% CI = 1.11-3.54) vs 1.17 (95% CI = 0.72-1.89)] (P = 0.19). Apart from albumin, none of the serum markers of inflammation studied showed a link with the risk of developing thyroid cancer-suggesting that the role of inflammation may be more complicated and requires assessment of more specialised measurements of inflammation.

Blood biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolisms and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A more than 20-year follow-up of the Swedish AMORIS cohort

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of blood biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolisms with the future risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).

METHODS

In the Apolipoprotein-related MOrtality RISk study, we enrolled 636,132 men and women during 1985-1996 in Stockholm, Sweden, with measurements of serum glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B (apoB), and apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I). Serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) were either directly measured or calculated from total cholesterol, triglycerides, and apoA-I. The cohort was followed until the end of 2011. We used Cox models and mixed-effects models to, first, estimate the associations between these biomarkers and ALS incidence and, second, to assess the changes of these biomarkers during the 20 years before ALS diagnosis.

RESULTS

One-unit increase of LDL-C (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.27), apoB (HR = 1.68; 95% CI = 1.17-2.42), and apoB/apoA-I ratio (HR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.29-2.78) was associated with a higher incidence of ALS. High glucose level (≥6.11mmol/L) was associated with a lower incidence (HR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.42-0.93), whereas high LDL-C/HDL-C (≥3.50; HR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.15-1.96) and high apoB/apoA-I (≥0.90 for men, ≥0.8 for women; HR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.04-1.90) ratios were associated with a higher incidence. During the 10 years before diagnosis, ALS patients had increasing levels of LDL-C, HDL-C, apoB, and apoA-I, whereas gradually decreasing levels of LDL-C/HDL-C and apoB/apoA-I ratios.

INTERPRETATION

Alterations in the carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolisms are associated with ALS risk and may serve as prodromal symptoms decades before ALS diagnosis. The imbalance between apoB and apoA-I as well as between LDL-C and HDL-C may be an etiological mechanism for ALS and needs to be further studied. Ann Neurol 2017;81:718-728.