Global rinderpest eradication: lessons learned and why humans should celebrate too

Defining correlates of protection for mammalian livestock vaccines against high-priority viral diseases

Enhancing livestock biosecurity is critical to safeguard the livelihoods of farmers, global and local economies, and food security. Vaccination is fundamental to the control and prevention of exotic and endemic high-priority infectious livestock diseases. Successful implementation of vaccination in a biosecurity plan is underpinned by a strong understanding of correlates of protection-those elements of the immune response that can reliably predict the level of protection from viral challenge. While correlates of protection have been successfully characterized for many human viral vaccines, for many high-priority livestock viral diseases, including African swine fever and foot and mouth disease, they remain largely uncharacterized. Current literature provides insights into potential correlates of protection that should be assessed during vaccine development for these high-priority mammalian livestock viral diseases. Establishment of correlates of protection for biosecurity purposes enables immune surveillance, rationale for vaccine development, and successful implementation of livestock vaccines as part of a biosecurity strategy.

Evaluation of a novel liquid stabilised peste des petits ruminants vaccine: Safety and immunogenic efficacy in sheep and goats in the field in Jordan

A novel liquid stabiliser was tested with the Nigeria 75/1 Peste des Petit Ruminants (PPR) vaccine over two field studies carried out in sheep and goats. PPR seronegative sheep and goats were selected from farms surrounding Amman, Jordan and were vaccinated with either a stabilised liquid PPR vaccine that had been formulated 3 months prior to use and stored at 2-8 °C or a reconstituted lyophilised PPRV vaccine reconstituted on the day of vaccination. Sera were taken immediately before vaccination and at approximately 1.5, 3 and 6 months following vaccination, then subsequently tested using IDVet ID Screen® PPR competition ELISA and Serum Neutralisation tests to determine the presence of PPRV anti-N antibodies and neutralising antibodies, respectively. It was observed that the liquid-stabilised vaccine was able to provide comparable antibody responses in both species to those induced by the lyophilized vaccine. The ability to store liquid stabilised PPRV vaccine for field use would positively impact PPRV eradication efforts.

Metagenomics-enabled reverse-genetics assembly and characterization of myotis bat morbillivirus

Morbilliviruses are among the most contagious viral pathogens of mammals. Although previous metagenomic surveys have identified morbillivirus sequences in bats, full-length morbilliviruses from bats are limited. Here we characterize the myotis bat morbillivirus (MBaMV) from a bat surveillance programme in Brazil, whose full genome was recently published. We demonstrate that the fusion and receptor binding protein of MBaMV utilize bat CD150 and not human CD150, as an entry receptor in a mammalian cell line. Using reverse genetics, we produced a clone of MBaMV that infected Vero cells expressing bat CD150. Electron microscopy of MBaMV-infected cells revealed budding of pleomorphic virions, a characteristic morbillivirus feature. MBaMV replication reached 103-105 plaque-forming units ml-1 in human epithelial cell lines and was dependent on nectin-4. Infection of human macrophages also occurred, albeit 2-10-fold less efficiently than measles virus. Importantly, MBaMV is restricted by cross-neutralizing human sera elicited by measles, mumps and rubella vaccination and is inhibited by orally bioavailable polymerase inhibitors in vitro. MBaMV-encoded P/V genes did not antagonize human interferon induction. Finally, we show that MBaMV does not cause disease in Jamaican fruit bats. We conclude that, while zoonotic spillover into humans may theoretically be plausible, MBaMV replication would probably be controlled by the human immune system.

Effectiveness and profitability of preventive veterinary interventions in controlling infectious diseases of ruminant livestock in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review

Agriculture in general, and livestock production in particular, serve as a livelihood source for many people in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In many settings, lack of control of infectious diseases hampers livestock productivity, undermining the livelihood of rural populations. This scoping review sought to identify veterinary interventions previously evaluated as well as their relative effectiveness in controlling infectious livestock diseases. To be included, papers had to be written in English, German or French, and had to describe the effectiveness and/or profitability of preventive veterinary intervention(s) against anthrax, blackleg, bovine tuberculosis, brucellosis, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, contagious caprine pleuropneumonia, foot-and-mouth disease, goat pox, lumpy skin disease, pasteurellosis, peste des petits ruminants, and/or sheep pox in any SSA country. Of the 2748 publications initially screened, 84 met our inclusion criteria and were analyzed. Most of the studies (n = 73, 87%) evaluated the effectiveness and/or profitability of vaccination, applied exclusively, applied jointly with, or compared to strategies like deworming, antimicrobial treatment, surveillance, feed supplementation, culling and dipping in reducing morbidity and/or mortality to livestock diseases. The effectiveness and/or profitability of antimicrobial treatment (n = 5), test and slaughter (n = 5), and use of lay animal health workers (n = 1) applied exclusively, were evaluated in the other studies. Vaccination was largely found to be both effective and with positive return on investment. Ineffective vaccination was mainly due to loss of vaccine potency under unfavorable field conditions like adverse weather events, cold chain failure, and mismatch of circulating pathogen strain and the vaccines in use.

In summary, vaccination is the most effective and profitable means of controlling infectious livestock diseases in SSA. However, to achieve effective control of these diseases, its implementation must integrate pathogen surveillance, and optimal vaccine delivery tools, to overcome the reported field challenges.

A Data-driven Horizon Scan of Bacterial Pathogens at the Wildlife-livestock Interface

Many livestock diseases rely on wildlife for the transmission or maintenance of the pathogen, and the wildlife-livestock interface represents a potential site of disease emergence for novel pathogens in livestock. Predicting which pathogen species are most likely to emerge in the future is an important challenge for infectious disease surveillance and intelligence. We used a machine learning approach to conduct a data-driven horizon scan of bacterial associations at the wildlife-livestock interface for cows, sheep, and pigs. Our model identified and ranked from 76 to 189 potential novel bacterial species that might associate with each livestock species. Wildlife reservoirs of known and novel bacteria were shared among all three species, suggesting that targeting surveillance and/or control efforts towards these reservoirs could contribute disproportionately to reducing spillover risk to livestock. By predicting pathogen-host associations at the wildlife-livestock interface, we demonstrate one way to plan for and prevent disease emergence in livestock.

Zoonotic potential of a novel bat morbillivirus

Bats are significant reservoir hosts for many viruses with zoonotic potential1. SARS-CoV-2, Ebola virus, and Nipah virus are examples of such viruses that have caused deadly epidemics and pandemics when spilled over from bats into human and animal populations2,3. Careful surveillance of viruses in bats is critical for identifying potential zoonotic pathogens. However, metagenomic surveys in bats often do not result in full-length viral sequences that can be used to regenerate such viruses for targeted characterization4. Here, we identify and characterize a novel morbillivirus from a vespertilionid bat species (Myotis riparius) in Brazil, which we term myotis bat morbillivirus (MBaMV). There are 7 species of morbilliviruses including measles virus (MeV), canine distemper virus (CDV) and rinderpest virus (RPV)5. All morbilliviruses cause severe disease in their natural hosts6–10, and pathogenicity is largely determined by species specific expression of canonical morbillivirus receptors, CD150/SLAMF111 and NECTIN412. MBaMV used Myotis spp CD150 much better than human and dog CD150 in fusion assays. We confirmed this using live MBaMV that was rescued by reverse genetics. Surprisingly, MBaMV replicated efficiently in primary human myeloid but not lymphoid cells. Furthermore, MBaMV replicated in human epithelial cells and used human NECTIN4 almost as well as MeV. Our results demonstrate the unusual ability of MBaMV to infect and replicate in some human cells that are critical for MeV pathogenesis and transmission. This raises the specter of zoonotic transmission of a bat morbillivirus.

Impact of Protein Glycosylation on the Design of Viral Vaccines

Glycans play crucial roles in various biological processes such as cell proliferation, cell-cell interactions, and immune responses. Since viruses co-opt cellular biosynthetic pathways, viral glycosylation mainly depends on the host cell glycosylation machinery. Consequently, several viruses exploit the cellular glycosylation pathway to their advantage. It was shown that viral glycosylation is strongly dependent on the host system selected for virus propagation and/or protein expression. Therefore, the use of different expression systems results in various glycoforms of viral glycoproteins that may differ in functional properties. These differences clearly illustrate that the choice of the expression system can be important, as the resulting glycosylation may influence immunological properties. In this review, we will first detail protein N- and O-glycosylation pathways and the resulting glycosylation patterns; we will then discuss different aspects of viral glycosylation in pathogenesis and in vaccine development; and finally, we will elaborate on how to harness viral glycosylation in order to optimize the design of viral vaccines. To this end, we will highlight specific examples to demonstrate how glycoengineering approaches and exploitation of different expression systems could pave the way towards better self-adjuvanted glycan-based viral vaccines.

What factors promote vaccine hesitancy or acceptance during pandemics? A systematic review and thematic analysis

Examine the factors that promote vaccine hesitancy or acceptance during pandemics, major epidemics and global outbreaks. A systematic review and thematic analysis of 28 studies on the Influenza A/H1N1 pandemic and the global spread of Ebola Virus Disease. We found seven major factors that promote vaccine hesitancy or acceptance: demographic factors influencing vaccination (ethnicity, age, sex, pregnancy, education, and employment), accessibility and cost, personal responsibility and risk perceptions, precautionary measures taken based on the decision to vaccinate, trust in health authorities and vaccines, the safety and efficacy of a new vaccine, and lack of information or vaccine misinformation. An understanding of participant experiences and perspectives toward vaccines from previous pandemics will greatly inform the development of strategies to address the present situation with the COVID-19 pandemic. We discuss the impact vaccine hesitancy might have for the introduction and effectiveness of a potential COVID-19 vaccine. In particular, we believe that skepticism toward vaccines can still exist when there are no vaccines available, which is contrary to contemporary conceptualizations of vaccine hesitancy. We recommend conducting further research assessing the relationship between the accessibility and cost of vaccines, and vaccine hesitancy.

Alternatives to antibiotics in a One Health context and the role genomics can play in reducing antimicrobial use

BACKGROUND

This review follows on from the International Conference on One Health Antimicrobial Resistance (ICOHAR 2019), where strategies to improve the fundamental understanding and management of antimicrobial resistance at the interface between humans, animals and the environment were discussed.

OBJECTIVE

This review identifies alternatives to antimicrobials in a One Health context, noting how advances in genomic technologies are assisting their development and enabling more targeted use of antimicrobials.

SOURCES

Key articles on the use of microbiota modulation, livestock breeding and gene editing, vaccination, antivirulence strategies and bacteriophage therapy are discussed.

CONTENT

Antimicrobials are central for disease control, but reducing their use is paramount as a result of the rise of transmissible antimicrobial resistance. This review discusses antimicrobial alternatives in the context of improved understanding of fundamental host-pathogen and microbiota interactions using genomic tools.

IMPLICATIONS

Host and microbial genomics and other novel technologies play an important role in devising disease control strategies for healthier animals and humans that in turn reduce our reliance on antimicrobials.

Active responses to outbreaks of infectious wildlife diseases: objectives, strategies and constraints determine feasibility and success

Emerging wildlife diseases are taking a heavy toll on animal and plant species worldwide. Mitigation, particularly in the initial epidemic phase, is hindered by uncertainty about the epidemiology and management of emerging diseases, but also by vague or poorly defined objectives. Here, we use a quantitative analysis to assess how the decision context of mitigation objectives, available strategies and practical constraints influences the decision of whether and how to respond to epidemics in wildlife. To illustrate our approach, we parametrized the model for European fire salamanders affected by Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, and explored different combinations of conservation, containment and budgetary objectives. We found that in approximately half of those scenarios, host removal strategies perform equal to or worse than no management at all during a local outbreak, particularly where removal cannot exclusively target infected individuals. Moreover, the window for intervention shrinks rapidly if an outbreak is detected late or if a response is delayed. Clearly defining the decision context is, therefore, vital to plan meaningful responses to novel outbreaks. Explicitly stating objectives, strategies and constraints, if possible before an outbreak occurs, avoids wasting precious resources and creating false expectations about what can and cannot be achieved during the epidemic phase.

The 1711 rinderpest in Bernardino Ramazzini's XIII Oration and the COVID-19 public health emergency: facts and common aspects

Although Bernardino Ramazzini is usually regarded only as the father of occupational medicine, his approach to fight the devastating rinderpest epidemic in 1711 is worth mentioning in the light of the public health emergency represented by Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). This commentary (i) focuses on Ramazzini's xiii oration describing that event, (ii) analyses the approach suggested to fight the cattle epidemic and economic threats, (iii) highlights some similar aspects between the 1711 rinderpest epidemic and the current COVID-19 pandemic (team expertise, contagion transmissibility, drug treatment, preventive measures, decision timeliness).

Impact of Vaccines; Health, Economic and Social Perspectives

In the 20th century, the development, licensing and implementation of vaccines as part of large, systematic immunization programs started to address health inequities that existed globally. However, at the time of writing, access to vaccines that prevent life-threatening infectious diseases remains unequal to all infants, children and adults in the world. This is a problem that many individuals and agencies are working hard to address globally. As clinicians and biomedical scientists we often focus on the health benefits that vaccines provide, in the prevention of ill-health and death from infectious pathogens. Here we discuss the health, economic and social benefits of vaccines that have been identified and studied in recent years, impacting all regions and all age groups. After learning of the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in December 2019, and its potential for global dissemination to cause COVID-19 disease was realized, there was an urgent need to develop vaccines at an unprecedented rate and scale. As we appreciate and quantify the health, economic and social benefits of vaccines and immunization programs to individuals and society, we should endeavor to communicate this to the public and policy makers, for the benefit of endemic, epidemic, and pandemic diseases.

A systemic approach to assess the potential and risks of wildlife culling for infectious disease control

The maintenance of infectious diseases requires a sufficient number of susceptible hosts. Host culling is a potential control strategy for animal diseases. However, the reduction in biodiversity and increasing public concerns regarding the involved ethical issues have progressively challenged the use of wildlife culling. Here, we assess the potential of wildlife culling as an epidemiologically sound management tool, by examining the host ecology, pathogen characteristics, eco-sociological contexts, and field work constraints. We also discuss alternative solutions and make recommendations for the appropriate implementation of culling for disease control.

Livestock and Poultry Production in Nepal and Current Status of Vaccine Development

The livestock and poultry sectors are an integral part of Nepalese economy and lifestyle. Livestock and poultry populations have continuously been increasing in the last decade in Nepal and are likely to follow that trend as the interests in this field is growing. Infectious diseases such as Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR), hemorrhagic septicemia (HS), black quarter (BQ), swine fever, avian influenza, and Newcastle disease (ND) constitute one of the major health challenges to the Nepalese livestock and poultry industry. Vaccinations are an efficient means of preventing the occurrence and spread of several diseases in animals and birds. Considering this fact, the government of Nepal began the production of veterinary vaccines in the 1960s. Nepal is self-reliant in producing several vaccines for cattle and buffaloes, sheep and goats, pigs, and poultry. Despite these efforts, the demand for vaccines is not met, especially in the commercial poultry sector, as Nepal spends billions of rupees in vaccine imports each year. There is a need of strengthening laboratory facilities for the isolation and characterization of field strains of pathogens and capacity building for the production of different types of vaccines using the latest technologies to be self-reliant in veterinary vaccine production in the future in Nepal.

Receptor-mediated cell entry of paramyxoviruses: Mechanisms, and consequences for tropism and pathogenesis

Research in the last decade has uncovered many new paramyxoviruses, airborne agents that cause epidemic diseases in animals including humans. Most paramyxoviruses enter epithelial cells of the airway using sialic acid as a receptor and cause only mild disease. However, others cross the epithelial barrier and cause more severe disease. For some of these viruses, the host receptors have been identified, and the mechanisms of cell entry have been elucidated. The tetrameric attachment proteins of paramyxoviruses have vastly different binding affinities for their cognate receptors, which they contact through different binding surfaces. Nevertheless, all input signals are converted to the same output: conformational changes that trigger refolding of trimeric fusion proteins and membrane fusion. Experiments with selectively receptor-blinded viruses inoculated into their natural hosts have provided insights into tropism, identifying the cells and tissues that support growth and revealing the mechanisms of pathogenesis. These analyses also shed light on diabolically elegant mechanisms used by morbilliviruses, including the measles virus, to promote massive amplification within the host, followed by efficient aerosolization and rapid spread through host populations. In another paradigm of receptor-facilitated severe disease, henipaviruses, including Nipah and Hendra viruses, use different members of one protein family to cause zoonoses. Specific properties of different paramyxoviruses, like neurotoxicity and immunosuppression, are now understood in the light of receptor specificity. We propose that research on the specific receptors for several newly identified members of the Paramyxoviridae family that may not bind sialic acid is needed to anticipate their zoonotic potential and to generate effective vaccines and antiviral compounds.

Spatial Multicriteria Evaluation for Mapping the Risk of Occurrence of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Eastern Africa and the Union of the Comoros

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), responsible for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), is widely circulating in Africa and Asia. The disease is a huge burden for the economy and development of the affected countries. In Eastern Africa, the disease is considered endemic. Because of the geographic proximity and existing trade between eastern African countries and the Comoros archipelago, the latter is at risk of introduction and spread, and the first PPR outbreaks occurred in the Union of the Comoros in 2012. The objective of this study was to map the areas suitable for PPR occurrence and spread in the Union of the Comoros and four eastern African countries, namely Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) was developed. Risk factors for PPR occurrence and spread, and their relative importance, were identified using literature review and expert-based knowledge. Corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized, and combined based on a weighted linear combination to obtain PPR suitability maps. The accuracy of the maps was assessed using outbreak data from the EMPRES database and a ROC curve analysis. Our model showed an excellent ability to distinguish between absence and presence of outbreaks in Eastern Africa (AUC = 0.907; 95% CI [0.820-0.994]), and a very good performance in the Union of the Comoros (AUC = 0.889, 95% CI: [0.694-1]). These results highlight the efficiency of the GIS-MCE method, which can be applied at different geographic scales: continental, national and local. The resulting maps provide decision support tools for implementation of disease surveillance and control measures, thus contributing to the PPR eradication goal of OIE and FAO by 2030.

Herd Immunity

Herd immunity is an important concept of epidemic theory regarding the population-level effect of individual immunity to prevent transmission of pathogens. Herd immunity exists when sufficient numbers of animals in a group or population have immunity against an agent such that the likelihood of an effective contact between diseased and susceptible individuals is reduced. Understanding herd immunity requires consideration of infection dynamics, modes of transmission, as well as the acquisition of immunity by individuals in the population. Loss of herd immunity may also explain age-associated epidemics of disease related to loss of passively acquired maternal immunity.

Post-Ebola Awakening: Urgent Call for Investing in Maintaining Effective Preparedness Capacities at the National and Regional Levels in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background:

The 2014 Ebola outbreak reminded us of the importance of preparedness for addressing health security threats. Learning from this experience, we aim to (1) enhance the understanding of preparedness by policy and decision makers, (2) discuss opportunities for Africa to invest in the prevention of health security threats, (3) highlight the value of investing in preventing health security threats, and (4) propose innovations to enhance investments for the prevention or containment of health security threats at the source.

Methods:

We used observations of governments' attitudes towards investing in preparedness for health security prevention or containment at the source. We conducted a literature review through PubMed, the World Wide Web, and Mendeley using the keywords: “health emergency financing”, “investing in health threats prevention”, and “stopping outbreaks at the source”.

Results:

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa invest inadequately towards building and maintaining critical capacities for preventing, detecting, and containing outbreaks at the source. Global health security emergency funding schemes target responses to outbreaks but neglect their prevention. Governments are not absorbing and maintaining adequately capacity built through GHS, World Bank, and development aid projects – a lost opportunity for building and retaining outbreak prevention capacity.

Recommendations:

Governments should (1) allocate adequate national budgets for health honouring the Abuja and related commitments; (2) own and maintain capacities developed through International Development Aids, OH networks, research consortia and projects; (3) establish a regional health security threats prevention fund. The global community and scientists should (1) consider broadening existing health emergency funds to finance the prevention and containment outbreaks at the source and (2) Strengthen economic analyses and case studies as incentives for governments' budget allocations to prevent health security threats.

Bioengineering towards self-assembly of particulate vaccines

There is an unmet demand for safe and efficient vaccines for prevention of various infectious diseases. Subunit vaccines comprise selected pathogen specific antigens are a safe alternative to whole organism vaccines. However they often lack immunogenicity. Natural and synthetic self-assembling polymers and proteins will be reviewed in view their use to encapsulate and/or display antigens to serve as immunogenic antigen carriers for induction of protective immunity. Recent advances made in in vivo assembly of antigen-displaying polyester inclusions will be a focus. Particulate vaccines are inherently immunogenic due to enhanced uptake by antigen presenting cells which process antigens mediating adaptive immune responses. Bioengineering approaches enable the design of tailor-made particulate vaccines to fine tune immune responses towards protective immunity.

Diagnostic virology and patient care: from vaguely interesting to vitally important

The existence of pathogenic viruses was inferred by experiments at the turn of the twentieth century. Key developments in detection of viruses, including electron microscopy and monolayer cell culture, were made in the middle of that century. However, in terms of patient care, the results from the virology laboratory often arrived the patient was 'better or dead'. The advent of molecular techniques, particularly polymerase chain reaction and more recently whole genome sequencing made timely and accurate diagnosis of viral infections feasible. A range of approaches have been taken to identify and characterise new viruses. Vaccines against viruses have made it possible to eliminate two pathogenic mammalian viruses altogether, with several others close to eradication. The role of biomedical scientists working in diagnostic virology is more relevant to patient care than ever.

Vaccine technologies: From whole organisms to rationally designed protein assemblies

Vaccines have been the single most significant advancement in public health, preventing morbidity and mortality in millions of people annually. Vaccine development has traditionally focused on whole organism vaccines, either live attenuated or inactivated vaccines. While successful for many different infectious diseases whole organisms are expensive to produce, require culture of the infectious agent, and have the potential to cause vaccine associated disease in hosts. With advancing technology and a desire to develop safe, cost effective vaccine candidates, the field began to focus on the development of recombinantly expressed antigens known as subunit vaccines. While more tolerable, subunit vaccines tend to be less immunogenic. Attempts have been made to increase immunogenicity with the addition of adjuvants, either immunostimulatory molecules or an antigen delivery system that increases immune responses to vaccines. An area of extreme interest has been the application of nanotechnology to vaccine development, which allows for antigens to be expressed on a particulate delivery system. One of the most exciting examples of nanovaccines are rationally designed protein nanoparticles. These nanoparticles use some of the basic tenants of structural biology, biophysical chemistry, and vaccinology to develop protective, safe, and easily manufactured vaccines. Rationally developed nanoparticle vaccines are one of the most promising candidates for the future of vaccine development.

Traditional and syndromic surveillance of infectious diseases and pathogens

BACKGROUND

Infectious diseases remain a major public health problem worldwide. Hence, their surveillance is critical. Currently, many surveillance strategies and systems are in use around the world. An inventory of the data, surveillance strategies, and surveillance systems developed worldwide for the surveillance of infectious diseases is presented herein, with emphasis on the role of the microbiology laboratory in surveillance.

METHODS

The data, strategies, and systems used around the world for the surveillance of infectious diseases and pathogens, along with current issues and trends, were reviewed.

RESULTS

Twelve major classes of data were identified on the basis of their timing relative to infection, resources available, and type of surveillance. Two primary strategies were compared: disease-specific surveillance and syndromic surveillance. Finally, 262 systems implemented worldwide for the surveillance of infections were registered and briefly described, with a focus on those based on microbiological data from laboratories.

CONCLUSIONS

There is currently a wealth of available data on infections, which has been growing with the recent emergence of new technologies. Concurrently with the expansion of computer resources and networks, these data will allow the optimization of real-time detection and notification of infections.

Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance

Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility.

Mapping the evolutionary trajectories of morbilliviruses: what, where and whither

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Morbilliviruses are important human and animal pathogens.

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Measles virus is the prototype and is the most infectious human pathogen on earth.

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Live attenuated vaccines have been used to control the infections.

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Rinderpest virus is the second virus to be eradicated from earth.

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New morbilliviruses have been identified in cats and vampire bats.

Morbilliviruses are pathogens of humans and other animals. Live attenuated morbillivirus vaccines have been used to end endemic transmission of measles virus (MV) in many parts of the developed world and to eradicate rinderpest virus. Entry is mediated by two different receptors which govern virus lymphotropism and epitheliotropism. Morbillivirus transmissibility is unparalleled and MV represents the most infectious human pathogen on earth. Their evolutionary origins remain obscure and their potential for adaption to new hosts is poorly understood. It has been suggested that MV could be eradicated. Therefore it is imperative to dissect barriers which restrict cross species infections. This is important as ecological studies identify novel morbilliviruses in a vast number of small mammals and carnivorous predators.

Redefining disease emergence to improve prioritization and macro-ecological analyses

Microbial infections are as old as the hosts they sicken, but interest in the emergence of pathogens and the diseases they cause has been accelerating rapidly. The term 'emerging infectious disease' was coined in the mid-1900s to describe changes in disease dynamics in the modern era. Both the term and the phenomena it is meant to characterize have evolved and diversified over time, leading to inconsistencies and confusion. Here, we review the evolution of the term 'emerging infectious disease' (EID) in the literature as applied to human hosts. We examine the pathways (e.g., speciation or strain differentiation in the causative agent vs. rapid geographic expansion of an existing pathogen) by which diseases emerge. We propose a new framework for disease and pathogen emergence to improve prioritization. And we illustrate how the operational definition of an EID affects conclusions concerning the pathways by which diseases emerge and the ecological and socioeconomic drivers that elicit emergence. As EIDs appear to be increasing globally, and resources for science level off or decline, the research community is pushed to prioritize its focus on the most threatening diseases, riskiest potential pathogens, and the places they occur. The working definition of emerging infectious diseases and pathogens plays a crucial role in prioritization, but we argue that the current definitions may be impeding these efforts. We propose a new framework for classifying pathogens and diseases as "emerging" that distinguishes EIDs from emerging pathogens and novel potential pathogens. We suggest prioritization of: 1) EIDs for adaptation and mitigation, 2) emerging pathogens for preventive measures, and 3) novel potential pathogens for intensive surveillance.

Viral niche construction alters hosts and ecosystems at multiple scales

The classical picture of viruses focuses on pathogenic viruses damaging the host's cells and physiology and host-pathogen immune coevolution. However, a broader picture of viruses is emerging that includes weakly pathogenic, commensal, or even mutualistic viruses and includes gross behavioural manipulations and viral effects on ecosystems. In this paper, we argue for niche construction as a unifying perspective on viral evolution. As obligate intracellular parasites, viruses are always modifying their environment, and these modifications drive evolutionary feedback between the virus and its environment across multiple scales from cells to ecosystems. We argue that niche construction will provide new insights into viral evolution, and that virology is a powerful source of empirical tests for niche construction.

Milroy Lecture: eradication of disease: hype, hope and reality

The possibility for one generation to eradicate a disease is very motivating. It is also very difficult. The many failed eradication attempts outnumber the one current success (smallpox), although two eradication campaigns for polio and Guinea worm are tantalisingly close to their goals. The early stages of a well-planned eradication campaign generally go well; it is the last stage where technical, biological, social and political problems occur. This paper considers the opportunities and pitfalls in planning for eradication of a disease.

From regional pulse vaccination to global disease eradication: insights from a mathematical model of poliomyelitis

Mass-vaccination campaigns are an important strategy in the global fight against poliomyelitis and measles. The large-scale logistics required for these mass immunisation campaigns magnifies the need for research into the effectiveness and optimal deployment of pulse vaccination. In order to better understand this control strategy, we propose a mathematical model accounting for the disease dynamics in connected regions, incorporating seasonality, environmental reservoirs and independent periodic pulse vaccination schedules in each region. The effective reproduction number, Re, is defined and proved to be a global threshold for persistence of the disease. Analytical and numerical calculations show the importance of synchronising the pulse vaccinations in connected regions and the timing of the pulses with respect to the pathogen circulation seasonality. Our results indicate that it may be crucial for mass-vaccination programs, such as national immunisation days, to be synchronised across different regions. In addition, simulations show that a migration imbalance can increase Re and alter how pulse vaccination should be optimally distributed among the patches, similar to results found with constant-rate vaccination. Furthermore, contrary to the case of constant-rate vaccination, the fraction of environmental transmission affects the value of Re when pulse vaccination is present.

After 2015: infectious diseases in a new era of health and development

Running over timescales that span decades or centuries, the epidemiological transition provides the central narrative of global health. In this transition, a reduction in mortality is followed by a reduction in fertility, creating larger, older populations in which the main causes of illness and death are no longer acute infections of children but chronic diseases of adults. Since the year 2000, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have provided a framework for accelerating the decline of infectious diseases, backed by a massive injection of foreign investment to low-income countries. Despite the successes of the MDGs era, the inhabitants of low-income countries still suffer an enormous burden of disease owing to diarrhoea, pneumonia, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and other pathogens. Adding to the predictable burden of endemic disease, the threat of pandemics is ever-present and global. With a view to the future, this review spotlights five aspects of the fight against infection beyond 2015, when the MDGs will be replaced by a new set of goals for poverty reduction and sustainable development. These aspects are: exploiting the biological links between infectious and non-infectious diseases; controlling infections among the new urban majority; enhancing the response to international health threats; expanding childhood immunization programmes to prevent acute and chronic diseases in adults; and working towards universal health coverage. By scanning the wider horizon now, infectious disease specialists have the chance to shape the post-2015 era of health and development.

Design and descriptive epidemiology of the Infectious Diseases of East African Livestock (IDEAL) project, a longitudinal calf cohort study in western Kenya

Background

There is a widely recognised lack of baseline epidemiological data on the dynamics and impacts of infectious cattle diseases in east Africa. The Infectious Diseases of East African Livestock (IDEAL) project is an epidemiological study of cattle health in western Kenya with the aim of providing baseline epidemiological data, investigating the impact of different infections on key responses such as growth, mortality and morbidity, the additive and/or multiplicative effects of co-infections, and the influence of management and genetic factors.

A longitudinal cohort study of newborn calves was conducted in western Kenya between 2007-2009. Calves were randomly selected from all those reported in a 2 stage clustered sampling strategy. Calves were recruited between 3 and 7 days old. A team of veterinarians and animal health assistants carried out 5-weekly, clinical and postmortem visits. Blood and tissue samples were collected in association with all visits and screened using a range of laboratory based diagnostic methods for over 100 different pathogens or infectious exposures.

Results

The study followed the 548 calves over the first 51 weeks of life or until death and when they were reported clinically ill. The cohort experienced a high all cause mortality rate of 16% with at least 13% of these due to infectious diseases. Only 307 (6%) of routine visits were classified as clinical episodes, with a further 216 reported by farmers. 54% of calves reached one year without a reported clinical episode. Mortality was mainly to east coast fever, haemonchosis, and heartwater. Over 50 pathogens were detected in this population with exposure to a further 6 viruses and bacteria.

Conclusion

The IDEAL study has demonstrated that it is possible to mount population based longitudinal animal studies. The results quantify for the first time in an animal population the high diversity of pathogens a population may have to deal with and the levels of co-infections with key pathogens such as Theileria parva. This study highlights the need to develop new systems based approaches to study pathogens in their natural settings to understand the impacts of co-infections on clinical outcomes and to develop new evidence based interventions that are relevant.

Vacated niches, competitive release and the community ecology of pathogen eradication

A recurring theme in the epidemiological literature on disease eradication is that each pathogen occupies an ecological niche, and eradication of one pathogen leaves a vacant niche that favours the emergence of new pathogens to replace it. However, eminent figures have rejected this view unequivocally, stating that there is no basis to fear pathogen replacement and even that pathogen niches do not exist. After exploring the roots of this controversy, I propose resolutions to disputed issues by drawing on broader ecological theory, and advance a new consensus based on robust mechanistic principles. I argue that pathogen eradication (and cessation of vaccination) leads to a 'vacated niche', which could be re-invaded by the original pathogen if introduced. Consequences for other pathogens will vary, with the crucial mechanisms being competitive release, whereby the decline of one species allows its competitors to perform better, and evolutionary adaptation. Hence, eradication can cause a quantitative rise in the incidence of another infection, but whether this leads to emergence as an endemic pathogen depends on additional factors. I focus on the case study of human monkeypox and its rise following smallpox eradication, but also survey how these ideas apply to other pathogens and discuss implications for eradication policy.

Emerging infectious diseases in 2012: 20 years after the institute of medicine report

Twenty years ago (1992), a landmark Institute of Medicine report entitled "Emerging Infections: Microbial Threats to Health in the United States" underscored the important but often underappreciated concept of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). A review of the progress made and setbacks experienced over the past 2 decades suggests that even though many new diseases have emerged, such as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and the 2009 pandemic influenza, significant advances have occurred in EID control, prevention, and treatment. Among many elements of the increase in the capacity to control EIDs are genomics-associated advances in microbial detection and treatment, improved disease surveillance, and greater awareness of EIDs and the complicated variables that underlie emergence. In looking back over the past 20 years, it is apparent that we are in a time of great change in which both the challenge of EIDs and our responses to them are being transformed. Recent advances support guarded optimism that further breakthroughs lie ahead.

Rinderpest eradication: appropriate technology and social innovations

Rinderpest is only the second infectious disease to have been globally eradicated. In the final stages of eradication, the virus was entrenched in pastoral areas of the Greater Horn of Africa, a region with weak governance, poor security, and little infrastructure that presented profound challenges to conventional control methods. Although the eradication process was a development activity rather than scientific research, its success owed much to several seminal research efforts in vaccine development and epidemiology and showed what scientific decision-making and management could accomplish with limited resources. The keys to success were the development of a thermostable vaccine and the application of participatory epidemiological techniques that allowed veterinary personnel to interact at a grassroots level with cattle herders to more effectively target control measures.

Countering the livestock-targeted bioterrorism threat and responding with an animal health safeguarding system

Attacks against livestock and poultry using biological agents constitute a subtype of agroterrorism. These attacks are defined as the intentional introduction of an animal infectious disease to strike fear in people, damage a nation's economy and/or threaten social stability. Livestock bioterrorism is considered attractive to terrorists because biological agents for use against livestock or poultry are more readily available and difficult to monitor than biological agents for use against humans. In addition, an attack on animal husbandry can have enormous economic consequences, even without human casualties. Animal husbandry is vulnerable to livestock-targeted bioterrorism because it is nearly impossible to secure all livestock animals, and compared with humans, livestock are less well-guarded targets. Furthermore, anti-livestock biological weapons are relatively easy to employ, and a significant effect can be produced with only a small amount of infectious material. The livestock sector is presently very vulnerable to bioterrorism as a result of large-scale husbandry methods and weaknesses in the systems used to detect disease outbreaks, which could aggravate the consequences of livestock-targeted bioterrorism. Thus, terrorism against livestock and poultry cannot be thought of as either a 'low-probability' or 'low-consequence' incident. This review provides an overview of methods to prevent livestock-targeted bioterrorism and respond to terrorism involving the deliberate introduction of a pathogen-targeting livestock and poultry.

The African buffalo: a villain for inter-species spread of infectious diseases in southern Africa

The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is a large wild bovid which until recently ranged across all but the driest parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and their local range being limited to about 20 km from surface water. They are of high ecological value due to their important role as bulk feeders in the grazing hierarchy. They also have high economic value, because they are one of the sought after 'Big Five' in the eco-tourism industry. In Africa, buffaloes have been recognised for some time as an important role player in the maintenance and transmission of a variety of economically important livestock diseases at the wildlife and/or livestock interface. These include African strains of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), Corridor disease (theileriosis), bovine tuberculosis and bovine brucellosis. For a number of other diseases of veterinary importance, African buffaloes may also serve as amplifier or incidental host, whereby infection with the causative pathogens may cause severe clinical signs such as death or abortion as in the case of anthrax and Rift Valley fever, or remain mild or subclinical for example heartwater. The long term health implications of most of those infections on the buffalo at a population level is usually limited, and they do not pose a threat on the population's survival. Because of their ability to harbour and transmit important diseases to livestock, their sustainable future in ecotourism, trade and transfrontier conservation projects become complex and costly and reliable diagnostic tools are required to monitor these infections in buffalo populations.